Journal of Contemporary Studies A bi-annual publication of the Faculty of Contemporary Studies Patron-in-Chief Lieutenant General Muhammad Saeed, HI (M), President, National Defence University, Islamabad. Chairman Prof. Dr. Lubna Abid Ali, Dean, Faculty of Contemporary Studies, National Defence University, Islamabad. EDITORIAL BOARD Editor-in-Chief Prof. Dr. Zulfqar Khan Editor Prof. Dr. Shaheen Akhtar Assistant Editors Dr. Afsah Qazi Dr. Fatima Bajwa Dr. Rifaat Haque Dr. Shazia Hassan

Research Associates Ms. Iffat Pervaz Ms. Hafsah Batool

EDITORIAL ADVISORY BOARD  Prof. Ian Talbot, Professor of Modern British History at the University of Southampton, UK.  Prof. Dr. Sally Wallace, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University, USA.  Prof. Dr. Mehmet Asutay, School of Government and International Affairs, Durham University, UK.  Prof. Marvin G. Weinbaum, Director for Pakistan Studies at the Middle East Institute, USA.  Prof. Dr. Arshin Adib Moghaddam, Department of Politics and International Studies, School of oriental and African Studies (SOAS, University of London.  Prof. Dr. S. Gulden Ayman, Marmara University Istanbul, Turkey.  Dr. Andrew Futter, Associate Professor of International Politics at University of Leicester, UK.  Dr. Julian Droogan, Department of Security Studies and Criminology, Macquarie University, Australia.  Dr. Nishchal N. Pandey, Director Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu, Nepal.  Dr. Ying Rong, Senior Research Fellow, China Institute of International Studies (CIIS).  Prof. Tim Edmunds, Director of Teaching and Learning, School of Sociology, Politics and International Studies (SPAIS), University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom.  Prof. Dr. Hasan Askari Rizvi, Political and Defence Analyst, Pakistan.  Prof. Dr. Moonis Ahmar, Dean Faculty of Arts, University of Karachi, Pakistan.  Prof. Dr. Rashid Ahmad Khan, Dean Social Sciences, University of Sargodha, Pakistan.  Prof. Dr. Ejaz Hussain, Professor National Institute of Pakistan Studies, Quaid-i- Azam University, Islamabad.

Winter 2020 Volume IX, Number 2

JOURNAL OF

Editor-in-Chief Prof. Dr. Zulfqar Khan

Editor Prof. Dr. Shaheen Akhtar

Faculty of Contemporary Studies National Defence University

Islamabad, Pakistan

Editor’s Note

The Journal of Contemporary Studies is a flagship publication of the Faculty of Contemporary Studies (FCS), National Defence University (NDU), Islamabad. The journal offers its readers in academia, government and the policymaking world in-depth and scholarly analyses, diverse policy perspectives on important contemporary issues, and ongoing debates in the areas of national and international security, public policy and the wider field of world politics. This issue of the journal comprises of seven articles, two book reviews and five documents providing valuable primary information on significant international developments. The first article, On Concept of Arms Control by Nasir Mehmood establishes the distinctiveness of the idea of Arms Control by assessing its position within military and international relations theories. It demonstrates that Arms Control is a permanent feature of international politics. It mutates its form and role as international security landscape evolves. This improved understanding will help better frame arms control policies in the 21st century amidst transition in regional/international security orders. The second article, The 21st Century World Order and Pakistan by Hassan Farooq, Muhammad Khan and Sidra Khan discusses rise and fall of great powers and its linkage to transitions in world order. It argues that in the 21st century, the US-led hegemonic world order is increasingly been challenged by rising powers, especially China that are striving for a multipolar world order. Within this context, Pakistan, due to its geostrategic location and great power relations holds great significance and any contest between declining and rising powers may directly affect its internal and external dynamics. Therefore, Islamabad should be extremely careful in its foreign policy choices. The third article, Maritime Cybersecurity: Vulnerabilities and Counter Measures by Zaheema Iqbal and Muhammad Khurram Khan explore recent developments in cyber security domain, which reveal an increased number of cyber-attacks on critical infrastructures, organizations, and industries. The maritime industry, being the critical infrastructure of any nation, is highly vulnerable to cyber-attacks. Cyber- attacks infiltrate the critical infrastructure in the maritime industry: terminals, vessels, ships, transport operators, ports and any other interconnected and integrated critical infrastructure. After looking into existing cyber security measures, and guidelines in the maritime industry,

it emphasizes the urgency of ‘cyber security in maritime industry’ both on land and onboard. The fourth article Deforestation in Pakistan: CPEC an Auxiliary Exacerbation, by Shaista Tabassum examines possible impact of construction of roads, highways and other projects under China-Pakistan Economic Corridor on environmental degradation in the country. It argues that Pakistan’s already deteriorating environment would be further stressed by deforestation occurring as CPEC progresses. It suggests that reforestation is the best possible alternative to deal with the emerging challenges. The fifth article, Understanding Complex Nature of the Syrian Crises by Khurshid Khan and Fouzia Amin explores on-going Syrian conflict in the wake of the ‘Arab Spring’. It explains, how peaceful protests against Assad regime’s policies spiralled into a civil war causing death of over half a million people. The article also examines the competing interests and role of America and Russia in Syria and regional politics. The sixth article, A Critical Analysis of Different Educational Systems on Students’ Outcomes: A Case Study of Pakistan by Syed Waqas Kausar examines the impact of the three concurrent education systems prevailing in Pakistan i.e. the madrassah, the public sector education system and the private sector education system on the society. The article discusses how because of this segregation, three generative structures are observed. It concludes that the current education system is leading to the generation of a particular class of society. The last article, Post-Soleimani US-Iran Tensions: Consequences and Responses, Muhammad Saleem Mazhar, Naheed S. Goraya and Samee Ozair Khan attempts to analyse the consequences of killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. It argues that the killing has escalated US-Iran hostility and tensions in the Middle East. It suggests that Islamabad should follow a neutral course as it serves its geopolitical and domestic interests. I am grateful to all the contributors who have sent their articles for this issue, and the anonymous peer-reviewers whose valuable comments helped authors to improve their contributions. We are accepting articles for the upcoming issue of the Journal of Contemporary Studies based on original qualitative or quantitative research, an innovative conceptual framework or a substantial literature review that opens new areas of inquiry and investigation. The editorial team at the journal promotes submissions from expert analysts from around the world. The Journal seeks to promote a scholarly understanding of contemporary issues pertaining to traditional and non-traditional security, peace studies, public policy and human resource development. It intends to stimulate interdisciplinary research and writing.

Editor Dr. Shaheen Akhtar

CONTENTS

ARTICLES 1. On Concept of Arms Control 1 Nasir Mehmood 2. The 21st Century World Order and Pakistan 19 Hassan Farooq, Muhammad Khan & Sidra Khan 3. Maritime Cybersecurity: Vulnerabilities and 42 Counter Measures Zaheema Iqbal & Muhammad Khurram Khan 4. Deforestation in Pakistan: CPEC an Auxiliary 59 Exacerbation Shaista Tabassum 5. Understanding Complex Nature of the Syrian Crises 73 Khurshid Khan & Fouzia Amin 6. A Critical Analysis of Different Educational Systems 89 on Students’ Outcome: A Case Study of Pakistan Syed Waqas Ali Kausar 7. Post-Soleimani US-Iran Tensions: Consequences & 106 Responses Muhammad Saleem Mazhar, Naheed S. Goraya & Samee Ozair Khan

BOOK REVIEWS 1. Twilight of Democracy: The Seductive Lure of Authoritarianism 122 Anne Applebaum 2. The World: A Brief Introduction 125 Richard Haass

DOCUMENTS 1. Message from H.E. Imran Khan, Prime Minister of 128 the Islamic Republic of Pakistan on the 75th Anniversary of the United Nations, October 24th, 2020, Islamabad. 2. Statement by the President of the Republic of 130 Azerbaijan, the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia and the President of the Russian

Federation, November 10th, 2020. 3. Ministers’ Declaration on India’s Participation in 132 the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), Virtual Meeting, November 11th, 2020. 4. Joint Leaders’ Statement on the Regional 133 Comprehensive Economic Partnership (Rcep), November 15th, 2020, Virtual Meeting. 5. Joint Statement on the Third U.S.-India 2+2 135 Ministerial Dialogue, October 27th, 2020.

On Concept of Arms Control 1

ON CONCEPT OF ARMS CONTROL

Nasir Mehmood

Abstract Arms control is a distinctive concept. It concerns with the distribution of military power (both conceptual and material) in line with a particular conception of national/international security. Although the basic idea of arms control is as old as history of armaments and wars, it began receiving systematic treatment from the late 1950s and the early 1960s onward. It was conceived to support the fail-safe operation of the post-war strategic theory. Over time, there has developed different meanings about the form, nature, and functions of arms control. This article attempts to explore these different and often incoherent interpretations of the concept of arms control and works out a coherent position. The article establishes the distinctiveness of the arms control concept by assessing its position within military and international relations theories. This article will not only broaden, but also deepen our understanding about the concept of arms control. This improved understanding will help better frame arms control policies in the 21st century amidst transition in regional/international security orders.

Keywords: Arms Control, Disarmament, Deterrence, War, Security Order

Introduction rms control is a distinctive concept. It adjusts military means (both conceptual and material) in line with a particular conception of A national/international security. It analyses the complex relationship among arms, context, and security and how they feed on each other. On the one hand, it seeks the positive effects of military means on the international relations. On the other hand, it mitigates the destabilizing effects of arms on the interstate relations. It in fact promotes rationality in the politics of military means and national/international security. It brings collectivity and legitimacy in the distribution of military means. Fundamentally, it envisions enlightened arms-based security structures in

 Assistant Professor, Department of Strategic Studies, National Defence University, Islamabad. Email: [email protected] 2 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 the international political system. Although the basic concept and practice of arms control are as old as the human history of armaments and wars themselves, the term itself is relatively new.1 As prima facie, it started receiving systematic and methodical treatment in both theorisation and praxis from the late 1950s onward.2 The concept of arms control emerged as an integral part of the post-war strategic theory. The nuclear revolution cast deep shadows over the strategic thinking of the time. The prime focus was to grapple with the implications of this new technology.3 In this context, the challenge of the modern strategic theory was quite straightforward: how states could best use nuclear weapons in their policy, while knowing the dangers of their actual exchange.4 This necessitated the need for multilevel concepts and multi-layered policies in this new era. As a part of this process, the traditional thought patterns about self-help, total war, deterrence, limited war, and arms race underwent a major refurbishment. On this account, arms control was deemed necessary for perfecting this new facelift of the strategic theory.5 The idea of arms control was introduced to increase the prospect of the fail-safe operation of the post- war strategic theory. In addition, it was pitched as an alternative to the utopian theory of disarmament.6 Arms control is a counter-intuitive strategic thinking, as it seeks cooperation between potential adversaries. It expects a connection between conscious military cooperation and national/international security. It reinforces the interaction between military and diplomatic realms. Similarly, it attempts to harmonize the

1 Stuart Croft, Strategies of Arms Control: A History and Typology (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1996), 20-32. 2 Jennifer E. Sims, “The American Approach to Nuclear Arms Control,” Daedalus 120, no. 1 (1991): 262. Hedley Bull, “Arms Control: A Stocktaking and Prospectus,” in Hedley Bull on Arms Control, eds., Robert O’Neill, and David N. Schwartz (Basingstoke: The Macmillan Press Limited, 1987), 100. Many principles and beliefs of the arms control theory had already occurred to many analysts. However, the whole was assembled and presented at the different conferences and workshops held in the Europe and the US only in the late 1950s and the early 1960s. 3 Wim A. Smit, “Military Technologies and Politics,” in The Oxford Handbook on Contextual Political Analysis eds., Robert E. Goodin, and Charles Tilly (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), 723-726. 4 Stephen M. Walt, “The Renaissance of Security Studies,” International Studies Quarterly 35, no. 2 (1991): 214. 5 It is to reiterate that modern concept of arms control was, largely, shaped up in the context of nuclear weapons and the Cold War. Robert R. Bowie, “Arms Control in the 1990s,” Daedalus 120, no. 1 (1991): 53. 6 Ken Booth, “Disarmament and Arms Control,” in Contemporary Strategy: Theories and Policies, eds., John Baylis et al., (New York: Holmes & Meier Publishers, Inc., 1975), 90. On Concept of Arms Control 3

military strategy within a nation’s wider national security policy.7 Despite voluminous production of literature on the subject matter to date, there are a few systematic reflections on the concept of arms control. Therefore, arms control lacks cohesion and specification, compared with other mid-range theories currently in vogue in Strategic Studies like that of deterrence, alliance-making, offence-defence, and so on. Among arms control literature surveyed, Keith Krause has forthrightly noted, “Canvassing the academic and policy-relevant literature of the past 50 years, one can find scattered contributions to theoretically-informed reflection about arms control….”8Henry Kissinger has lent credence to this view by observing: “Unfortunately, the debate about arms control has often contributed more to passion than to understanding.”9 This article attempts to explore these different and often incoherent interpretations of the concept of arms control and works out a coherent position. The article underlines the distinctiveness of the arms control concept by assessing its position within military and international relations theories. To this end, the proceeding section begins by defining arms control. It then elucidates arms control in relation to the theories of international relations, disarmament, war, and deterrence. Afterwards, it debates the purposes of arms control along with typology of its measures. Finally, it concludes by discussing the conceptual and policy implications of the distinctiveness of arms control for the 21st century amidst transition in regional and international security orders.

Defining Arms Control Defining arms control is stimulating. In the course of time, it has assimilated a number of different interpretations, as it embraces a variety of objectives and measures. Moreover, the relative esoteric character of arms control process has made it difficult for commentators to describe its dynamics and functions precisely. Resultantly, some feel tempted to describe it in terms of its measures, while others in relation to its purposes. Not surprisingly, one finds the definitions of arms control either too restrictive or too generic. In the light of this, it will be appropriate to broach the discussion straight from the word “arms.” The word “arms” denotes more than just

7 Thomas Schelling, and Morton Halperin, Strategy and Arms Control (New York: The Twentieth Century Fund, 1961), 143. 8 Keith Krause, “Leashing the Dogs of War: Arms Control from Sovereignty to Governmentality,” Contemporary Security Policy 32, no. 1(2011): 20. 9 Henry A. Kissinger, “We Must Put Our Intellectual House in Order,” in Arms and Arms Control: A Symposium, ed., Ernest Lefever (New York: Frederick A. Praeger, 1962), 140. 4 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 armaments.10It refers to both the potential and the real military capability of a state. It may also subsume the conceptual dimension of the military doctrine and strategy.11 Subsequently, the word “control” is interpreted as “induced or reciprocated” regulation/restraint in relation to certain aspects of the military capability.12 This regulation/restraint may merely seek preservation of the existing military means (both material and conceptual) or aim at bringing about some modifications into them. Thus, arms control involves reciprocated or induced adjustment of certain elements of the military assets of the states involved. The preceding analysis is instructive along two lines. Firstly, states are the primary referents of the arms control activity. The non-governmental actors may only participate in a supporting role with regard to the arms control activities. Secondly, the scope of arms control is restricted to only military resources. The firearms of police, individuals, and domestic groups are usually categorised under a separate category of “gun control.” Here, a reference of what motivates the states to go for arms control in the definition may also be seemed logical. Given the anarchic nature of international politics, states tend to rely on unilateral actions for their security. That is, they view military power as a key instrument not only to preserve but also to advance their security interests in the external environment. The value of armaments increases manifold when states have to pursue competing security interests, especially against their rivals. In their wider deliberative processes, states may reach a conclusion, however, that their military assets are of no substantial use in the pursuit of particular security interests against their rivals. Conversely, their unilateral military actions have appeared to be generating additional unrequired politico-strategic challenges either in the present, or in the anticipated upcoming security landscape. On this account, states feel encouraged to reconcile with the limits

10 Patrick Morgan, “Elements of a General Theory of Arms Control,” in Arms Control: History, Theory, and Policy eds., Robert E. Williams and Paul R. Viotti, vol. 1, Foundations of Arms Control (Santa Barbara, CA: Praeger, 2012), 17. 11 David Edwards, Arms Control in International Politics (New York: Holt Inc. 1969), 11-13. 12 Schelling & Halperin, Strategy and Arms Control, 5. The carefully and closely knit bilateral and multilateral arms control measures are more effective to constitute stable strategic and political relationships between contending parties as compared to the isolated and unilateral measures. As a matter of fact, this process invariably involves the members of executives, legislation and other political actors, military men, civil servants, diplomats, civil society and public from all parties concerned, which is essential to construct enduring peace and security.; Rose E. Gottemoeller, “Arms Control in a New Era,” The Washington Quarterly 25, no. 2 (spring, 2002): 46. On Concept of Arms Control 5

of the self-help principle.13 Under enlightened security thinking, the rival states tempt for reciprocated or induced restraint in relation to some aspects of their military assets as a policy option to stabilize the strategic competition and to generate leeway to resolve their basic political conflict amicably. Putting all these considerations together, we can finally define that arms control seeks reciprocated or induced restraint on selective military means of states (especially of rival states) to reinforce an evolving politico-strategic structures of security relations between them. From this working definition, we can glean that arms control is a technical and political instrument. It is not equivalent to a security system. It instead works as a sophisticated regulator in a given security system.14 By its function, it develops its own system within the broader security system to discharge its regulatory functions. It is an instrument of both national and international security. It complements as well as supplements the states’ conventional security arrangements.

Arms Control and Theory of International Relations Strategic Studies is a sub-field of International Relations (IR). Theory of IR provides a general framework to analyse the problematique of Strategic Studies. With this pattern of widespread and critical engagement between these two academic fields in place, one can fairly anticipate the influence of IR theory in the development and praxis of arms control. Theory of IR describes the dynamics of international politics, as well as prescriptions for the decision-makers. While inspecting the anatomy of the international theory, Martin Wight found three distinctive, but dynamically interweaving traditions of thought. He described them as the realist, the rationalist, and the revolutionist.15 Each tradition has its own description of the nature of international relations and a prescription for the behaviour of international players. These three traditions are seen coexisting although “in mutual tension and conflict.”16 It is, therefore, logical to view these different approaches along a continuum rather than in isolation.17

13 Michael O. Wheeler, “The Philosophical Underpinnings of Arms Control,” in Arms Control: History, Theory and Practice, 64-65. 14 Richard K. Betts, “Systems for Peace or Causes of War? Collective Security, Arms Control, and the New Europe,” International Security 17, no. 1 (1992): 10. 15 Martin Wight, International Theory: The Three Traditions, eds. Gabriele Wight, and Brian Porter (London: Leicester University Press, 1991), 7. 16 Wight, “An Anatomy of International Thought,” Review of International Studies 13, no. 3(1987): 227. 17 A continuum signifies theoretical overlap. Each of the mentioned traditions contains sub-variants, and some of these variants intersect each other. 6 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

At one end of the continuum are the realists (Machiavelli, Hobbes, Hegel, Carr, Morgenthau, and Waltz etc.), who traditionally understand international politics in terms of anarchy, power politics, and war. Sovereign states are seen as the primary actors and viewed pursuing their interests freely. Along with this, international political reality is equated with international system of states. At the core of the realist’s tradition is the doctrine that power is anterior to law and morality. It is also maintained that sovereign states constitute an international system, as they, in their mutual interaction, operate under pre-contractual condition. Finally, the prescription for rulers involves the pursuit of self-interest with unilateral military means.18 The rationalists (Grotius, Locke, Gladstone, Roosevelt, Bull, and Schelling etc.) believed in the existence of the element of international intercourse in the predominate condition of international anarchy. This international intercourse involves both conflict and cooperation. For that reason, anarchy is not seen as an anti-social condition. This leads them to conclude that since states are not subjected to any common superior, they essentially constitute a society of states.19 They faithfully cite the workings of diplomacy, international law, balance of power, and so on as persuasive examples of the existence of the international society. Moreover, they presume that the issue of morality is real but complicated in politics. The Grotian prescription subjects the international dealings to a series of rules, institutions, and structures of morality.20 Finally, the rationalists propose that power ought to be balanced and regulated. On other end of the continuum, the distinctive tradition of the revolutionist is situated. The adherents of this tradition (Kant, Cobden, Lenin, Hoffmann, and Keohane) view humans rather than the sovereign states as the primary actors. They explicate that states actually reflect the wills of the individuals who manage their affairs. The Kantian tradition believes that the faculty of reasoning unites humans.21 There is a harmony of interests amongst them, and this develops a great deal of interdependence among them. Building on this, the tradition discards the conception of international relations in terms of a system of states. Rather, it presents it as a global cosmopolitan community of humankind.22 In this global community, moral issues are simple and constitute the real driving

Henceforth, the continuum sketch is analytically more useful rather than pitching them separately. Rationalists hold middle ground in the continuum. 18 Wight, International Theory, 15. 19 Hedley Bull, The Anarchical Society: A Study of Order in World Politics (London: MacMillan Press Limited, 1977), 25. 20 Ibid. 21 Robert Jackson, and George Sorensen, Introduction to International Relations: Theories and Approaches, 3rd ed.(Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007), 98. 22 Hedley Bull, “Martin Wight and the Theory of International Relations,” in International Theory, xiv. On Concept of Arms Control 7

force behind international relations. The adherents of the tradition advocate for human security. Their prescription emphasizes the value of revolutions and radical institutional transformations to bring about enduring peace and progress.23 These traditional images of the international relations have different implications for the value and practicality of arms control. Insomuch as there are two main relevant sub-variants of the realists (offensive and defensive), the realism pole of the continuum has two telling implications for arms control. The adherents of offensive realism believe that states try to maximize their power, and this mostly precludes the opportunities for cooperation.24 The states may show some interest in arms control if it can reinforce and seal their visible preponderance.25 The defensive realists view this argument of the offensive realists as incomplete and flawed. They instead posit that states seek security, not the maximization of power. For security purposes, under some restricted conditions, they can engage in arms control activities.26 To a certain extent, their thoughts about the possibility of military cooperation under anarchy intersect with the rationalist thought. The English School, while drawing mainly on history, law, and political theory, categorically reckons the existence of cooperation along with conflict in the international politics. The rationalists subscribe to a wider conception of security, which embraces the security of the state, as well as of the international system of states. Because of this, they concentrate not only on the immediate challenge of nuclear stability, but also on larger issues of the security order.27 They seemingly tend to link arms control with the manifestations of the balance of power theory. Moreover, they view arms control as a useful policy instrument to bring about progressive and just peaceful international change among the states. On the issue of transformation, they share some common ground

23 Bull, “Martin Wight and Theory of International Relations,” xiv. 24 John J. Mearsheimer, “Back to the Future: Instability in Europe after the Cold War,” International Security 15, no. 1 (summer, 1990): 12. 25 Anthony J. Eksterowicz, “The Balance of Power Foundation for Contemporary Arms Control Praxis,” The Journal of Social, Political and Economic Studies 13, no. 3 (1988): 318. 26 The followers of the contingent/defensive realism like Charles Glaser reject the pessimistic assumptions of the offensive realists, and believe that states prefer arms control to express their benign security intentions, which essentially mitigates the effects of security dilemma. Nevertheless, Glaser ties down arms control with the offense-defense variables. He argues that in the realm of security, states cooperate on the principle of mutual benefit rather than relative gains. See Charles L. Glaser, “Realists as Optimists: Cooperation as Self-Help,” International Security 19, no. 3 (winter, 1994-1995): 50-90. 27 Nancy W. Gallagher, “Re-thinking the Unthinkable: Arms Control in the Twenty-First Century,” The Non-Proliferation Review 22, no. 3-4 (2015): 485. 8 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 with the moderate Kantians, who consider arms control to be a first step towards disarmament. Nevertheless, the hardliners of the Kantian group show distaste for arms control. For them, arms control legitimises the arms build-up, and preserves the status quo. Thus, it postpones the change.28 Since they believe in revolutions for progress, they call for general and complete disarmament.29 The preceding discussion shows that the existence of different theoretical traditions within the theory of international relations has different implications for the desirability and the undertaking of the arms control system. If the governments in question hold a point of view from the extreme right or left of the continuum, they will show reluctance for adopting arms control. On the other hand, the policy makers adhering to the theoretical precepts of the rationalist school will extend broader support for arms control. Taken together, arms control draws inspiration and responds across the international relations theories.

Arms Control and Disarmament Arms control and disarmament are two distinct ideas relating to national/international security. Arms control is not disarmament, as it is merely concern with the regulation of armaments. While it is true that they overlap in some of their measures and objectives, there are clearly some values in preserving the difference between them.30 First, the theory of arms control arose partly in response to the rejection of complete disarmament in international politics. Arms control was put forward as a pragmatic and practical idea against the utopian and rigid approach of disarmament. Secondly, each idea holds different prescriptions about international politics. The arms controllers suggest step-by-step and progressive change in the politico-strategic settings of national/international security.31 On the contrary, the disarmers

28 Phil Williams, “Arms Control and European Security: Competing Conceptions for the 1980s,” Arms Control: The Journal of Arms Control and Disarmament 4, no. 2 (1983): 83. 29 Hans Gunter Brauch, “The Three World views of Hobbes, Grotius, and Kant: Foundations of Modern Thinking on Peace and Security,” Free University of Berlin, AFES-Press, 9, http://www.afes-press.de/pdf/Hague/ Brauch_Worldviews.pdf. 30 James E. Dougherty and Robert L. Pfaltzgraff, Contending Theories of International Relations: A Comprehensive Survey, 5th ed., (New York: Addison Wesley Longman, Inc., 2001), 374. Jozef Goldblat has also stated that arms control and disarmament are often used interchangeably. Jozef Goldblat, Arms Control: The New Guide to Negotiations and Agreements (London: SAGE Publication Limited, 2002), 3. 31 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Armaments and Disarmament in the Nuclear Age: A Handbook (Stockholm: Almqvist & Wiksell International, 1976), 274-75. On Concept of Arms Control 9

recommend quick and radical change in international politics. In addition, each carries contradictory views about the relationship between the armaments and the onset of war. For arms controllers, there is a complex relationship among political conflicts, armaments, and war. Therefore, they pursue a prudent and deeper line of thinking. They maintain that war comes about primarily due to the processes that are essentially political in nature. At the same time, they underline that the size, structure, and posture of the military forces play a role in aggravating the conflict between the adversaries.32 That is to say, each reflects and affects the other. While talking about these conceptual linkages, Thomas Schelling and Martin Halperin have meticulously noted:

It is true that modern armaments and military plans are a response to basic international conflicts. It is also true that the size and character of military forces are an important determinant of national fears and anxieties, and of the military incentives of our potential enemies. There is a feedback between our military forces and the conflicts that they simultaneously reflect and influence.33

Conversely, the disarmers propagate a crude and sweeping assumption that the weapons and arms races are the basic causes of war. Moreover, the arms controllers perceive a ‘weapons-stability’ nexus, and thus focus on their management. Whereas, the proponents of the disarmament view a direct link between weapons and war and therefore, call for the abolition of the weapons. Accordingly, arms controllers promote the idea of restraint and disarmers plainly seek the reduction and abolition of the weapons. The restraint may entail preservation of the military balances or the increase of certain categories of weapons. Finally, the disarmament activity may involve the unconditional and uncontrolled reduction of weapons, which is hard to find in arms control practices. On the other hand, there are those who view arms control and disarmament as substitutes for each other. This perspective has arisen from the fact that both the arms control and disarmament activities invariably deal with the military assets, and, at times, employ specific types of techniques to control and reduce anxieties and fears of catastrophe. Therefore, these two terms can be, and often are used interchangeably. The arms controllers like Schelling and Halperin believe that the approach of arms control, in the literal sense, is not in opposition to disarmament. Rather, it is a broader concept, which is meant to embrace many of the problems and challenges of the disarmament.34Marek Thee, a distinctive figure of the disarmament community, believes that it is the

32 Marc Trachtenberg, “The Past and Future of Arms Control,” Daedalus 120, no. 1(1991): 206. 33 Schelling and Halperin, Strategy and Arms Control, 4. 34 Ibid., 2. 10 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 other way round, and has presented disarmament as the mother concept. In his interpretation, arms control was understood as a workable opening towards the goal of general and complete disarmament.35 Reinforcing this pertinent interpretation, former director of the United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs, William Epstein has noted that the word disarmament is used in the UNO as a generic term, encompassing all the measures related to confidence building, arms regulations, and general and complete elimination of the weapons.36 This occasional academic and public bewilderment about these two terms cannot mask the real underlying differences between them. Arms control and disarmament are not exact opposites, but are essentially two different concepts. Both chart different strategies to reinforce international peace and security. They are differentiated based on the arguments behind their undertakings.

Arms Control and Causes of War Many commentators believe that insofar as arms control seeks to reduce the likelihood of war, the theory of arms control must be predicated on the theory of the causes of war.37 There is in fact a centrality as well as disagreement about this perspective. The significance of this argument lies in understanding the post-nuclear revolution strategic thinking, which opened the door for arms control. Nuclear revolution brought about a revolution in strategic thinking. It questioned the feasibility of brute force/general war in international relations. In this regard, the influential strategist Liddell Hart noted that the purpose of strategy was to reduce the “fighting to the slenderest possible proportions.”38 The strategy was contemplated to produce results, without escalating to serious fighting. This indirect approach of strategic thinking views the responsibility of the strategist as being “not so much to seek battle as to seek a strategic situation so advantageous that if it does not itself produce the decision, its continuation by a battle is sure to achieve this.”39 Three themes clearly flow from this exposition of strategy. One,

35 Marek Thee, “Arms Control: The Retreat from Disarmament the Record to Date and the Search for Alternatives,” Journal of Peace Research 14, no. 2 (1977):99. 36 William Epstein, Disarmament: Twenty-Five Years of Effort (Toronto: Canadian Institute of International Affairs, 1971), 3-4. 37 Robert Jervis, “Arms Control, Stability, and Causes of War,” Political Science Quarterly 108, no. 2 (1993): 239. 38 Basil Liddell Hart, “Strategy: The Indirect Approach,” in Strategic Studies: A Reader, eds., Thomas G. Mahnken, and Joseph A. Maiolo (Oxon: Routledge, 2014), 101. 39 Ibid., 102. On Concept of Arms Control 11

war is not the preferred objective. Secondly, achieving a relatively peaceful advantageous strategic environment is the prime strategic choice. Thirdly, there is space for the calculative use of force. The idea of arms control implicitly or explicitly embraces these strategic themes. Arms control shows great sensitivity towards certain approximate causes and paths to war so as to reduce the likelihood of war. It prudently underlines both political and technical causes of war. Nevertheless, the idea of arms control, to a larger extent, inspires from the spiral theory of war (security dilemma) by inadvertence and accident in which neither side expects the war. To curtail the prospects of unintended war, it works on certain technical causes (arms race, types of weapons, and operational practices), especially in the line of a crisis and catalytic war. This means that arms control is designed to prevent some, but not all sorts of the wars.40 Quite apart from this, the concept of arms control concerns with the realm of peace.41 Peace is a much more complicated affair than war. The theoretical foundations of peace and war overlap, but mostly differ.42 Traditionally, peace is understood as the absence of war. This is a bleak and hardly comprehensive conception. At most, this is what we usually describe as negative peace. As understood today, the conception of peace involves much more than this. The conception of positive peace involves the values like that of the quality of relationship, cooperation, integration, and conflict management.43 Among others, just socio-political order also, distinctively, characterizes a positive peace.44 Undeniably, the conditions of negative and positive peace, themselves, provide the impetus for the arms control activities. The arms control agreements, mechanisms, and procedures play a critical role in the large processes to invent both

40 Coit D. Blacker, and Gloria Duffy, eds., International Arms Control: Issues and Agreements, 2nd ed. (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1984), 338. 41 The ‘long peace’ thesis emphasizes factors other than arms control which include balance of terror, rules of game, respecting spheres of influence, reconnaissance revolution, bipolar order, regional security regimes and so forth. However, the arms control measures play a crucial role in framing and supporting most of these factors. See Sterling Kernek, “The Long Peace: Interpretation and Implications,” in Arms Control: Moral, Political and Historical Lessons, ed., Kenneth W. Thompson (New York: University Press of America, 1990), 120. For the role of regional security order in long peace, see John S. Duffield, “Explaining the Long Peace in Europe: The Contributions of Regional Security Regimes,” Review of International Studies 20 (1994): 370. 42 Paul F. Diehl, “Exploring Peace: Looking Beyond War and Negative Peace,” International Studies Quarterly, no. 0 (2016): 6, http://isq.oxfordjournals.org/ content/ early/ 2016/02/25/isq.sqw005. 43 Ibid., 2. 44 Michael Howard, The Invention of Peace: Reflections on War and International Order (London: Profile Books Limited, 2000), 3. 12 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 negative and positive peace as well. Similarly, the concept of arms control, in conjunction with the post-war strategic theory, does recognize the possibilities of calculated use of force in international relations. For that, it proactively engages the parties to formulate the tacit rules of the game. To summarize, arms control is partly based on the causes of war and partly on the notion of peace. It certainly transcends the theory of causes of war.

Arms Control and Deterrence The relationship between arms control and deterrence also requires specification. Many commentators consider arms control a handmaiden of the theory of strategic deterrence.45 The concept of nuclear deterrence aims at preventing war through threat. To this end, it requires actual force preparation to make the threats credible. Meanwhile, its actual use has to be guarded. This causes a classic usability dilemma. If the nuclear forces are built around the notion of non-use, they may lose their deterrent value. On the other hand, if employed, they would destroy the security values, which they were supposed to protect.46 This suggests that deterrence requires a delicate balance between certain factors. Albert Wohlstetter rightly emphasized, “Deterrence demands hard, continuing, intelligent work, but it can be achieved…. The balance is not automatic.”47 Deterrence is an attention-holding and intricate phenomenon. In the nuclear era, the immediate goal of arms control is to articulate and stabilize the delicate balance of terror between the nuclear rivals. To this effect, it helps to straighten up the technical requirements, as well as the intent of the deterrence between the potential rivals. Arms control efforts are also directed to address the challenges of crisis stability and arms race. In essence, arms control attempts to make deterrence less likely to fail and dampen the impetus to build forces to achieve military advantage. Although arms control undergirds the smooth functioning of deterrence, it is not the sister concept of the theory of strategic deterrence. To explicate, states can even achieve the deterrence condition without having arms control measures in place. A fragile condition of deterrence might be achieved between adversaries as an unintended consequence of

45 Michael Sheehan, Arms Control: Theory and Practice (Oxford: Basil Blackwell Inc., 1988), 153. It is worth mentioning here that some analysts tend to argue that deterrence is the ultimate form of contemporary arms control. Analytically, this conception lacks cohesion and precision. Patrick M. Morgan, “Criteria for Developing Arms Control Accords Arms Control: A Theoretical Perspective,” Policy Studies Journal 8, no. 1(1979): 107. 46 John C. Polanyi, “Arms Control,” International Journal 17, no. 1 (1961-62): 40- 41. 47 Albert Wohlstetter, “The Delicate Balance of Terror,” Foreign Affairs XXXVII, no. 2(January 1959): 221-22. On Concept of Arms Control 13

their arms competition. For illustration, this kind of deterrence existed between the Soviet Union and the United States during the 1950s and early 1960s, without the support of arms control.48 Secondly, the operational strategies of deterrence hinder achieving the political objectives of arms control. Ostensibly, deterrence and arms control are compatible with each other. It is believed that the threats and promises must work together to enhance stability. Practically in some ways, they deflect each other. Like, the operational strategies of deterrence exacerbate the political animosity through the action-reaction process of arms race and conflict escalation. Actually, the deterrence theory and conflict-spiral model are complementary to each other. This situation, in turn, creates challenges for arms control to work.49 Thirdly, the fluffy conception and ever-changing requirements of strategic deterrence poses additional challenges for arms control undertakings. Fourth, insomuch as arms control is a regulator, it is equally compatible with security arrangements other than the balance of terror. Thus, it is a mistaken to conceive arms control as a mere sister concept of deterrence.

Objectives and Measures of Arms Control Taken together, the preceding specifications guide to comprehend the objectives and measures of arms control. As distilled, arms control tends to seek diverse objectives. It is conceived as a means, not an end in itself. According to first distinctively proclaimed objective, arms control works to curtail the occasions, where war arises due to the mismanagement of military means (strategy, doctrine, weaponry, deployment, and other related activities). Along with this, it engages the contending parties to lay down mechanisms, procedures, and facilities for early termination of the war, if it erupts.50 The second widely recognized objective of arms control is to reduce the economic cost for military programmes. According to Bernard Brodie, saving money is the only genuinely important and achievable objective of arms control. Importantly, this line of reasoning tends to de-emphasize the relationship

48 The researcher derived this argument through the analysis of James King’s idea of ‘fortuitous stability’. See James E. King, “The Price of Military Stability,” in Arms Control: Issues for the Public, ed. Louis Henkin (New Jersey: Prentice- Hall Publishers, 1961), 85-90. 49 Actually, the deterrence theory and conflict-spiral model are complementary to each other. This situation, in turn, creates challenges for arms control to work. Frank C. Zagare and D. Marc Kilgour, “Deterrence Theory and the Spiral Model Revisited,” Journal of Theoretical Politics 10, no. 1(1998): 85; Also, Jervis, “Arms Control, Stability, and Causes of War.” 50 Schelling and Halperin, Strategy and Arms Control, 2. 14 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 between the military industrial complex and economic growth of a country.51 The third objective of arms control is to establish international norms of behaviour about certain types of weapons.52On the pragmatic moral ground, certain arms control efforts are meant to establish norms/taboos about the possession, use of certain weapons, and protection of non-combatants etc. It is important to note that related moral judgments are made after examining the politico-strategic trends in the international arena. The fourth purpose of arms control is to stop the militarization of the society. Bull noted that unchecked growths of the military establishments are inimical to liberal and democratic institutions. The overgrown military related activities and practices have adverse effects on the overall psyche of the society.53 Similarly, Jack Snyder found that the military organizations develop and promote their sympathizers in the society and in the government circles. They inevitably put pressure on the governments to pursue aggressive foreign policies, which, in turn, contribute to the eruption of international crises and wars.54 The fifth purpose of arms control is to strengthen civilian control of the military establishments. This is a less substantiated aspect of arms control. The former US President, John F. Kennedy, in his special message to the Congress on the eve of defence budget on March 28, 1961, fleshed out the basic principles of the defence policy. In one of his recommendations, he emphasized that “our arms must be subject to ultimate civilian control and command at all times, in war as well as peace.”55Taking this broad recommendation one step further, one can say that arms control provides inroads to the civilian authorities into the restricted defence policy processes. The sixth purpose of arms control is to promote peaceful international change. It is argued that arms control is also a vehicle for political change rather than merely preserving the status quo. Linked to broader processes of change, it manages and boosts the process of peaceful transformation of relationships starting from the present to the end point in the future between the contending parties.

51 Bernard Brodie, “On the Objectives of Arms Control,” International Security 1, no. 1(summer, 1976): 19. 52 Hedley Bull, The Control of the Arms Race: Disarmament and Arms Control in the Missile Age, 2nd ed.,( New York: Frederick A. Praeger Publishers, 1965), 20- 24. 53 Bull, The Control of the Arms Race, 3-4. 54 Jack Snyder, Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1991), 31-60. 55 John F. Kennedy, “99-Special Message to the Congress on Defense Budget,” The American Presidency Project, http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/ ?pid=8554. On Concept of Arms Control 15

Importantly, arms control arrangements make the reversal process more difficult.56 The final objective of arms control is to contribute in articulating regional/international security order. This is one of the implicit and rarely spoken objectives of the arms control enterprise. For some, it is the side effect of the arms control interactions. For others, it is the prime agenda. The underlying research, however, subscribes the latter perspective. Security order means fundamental organizing rules and arrangements for national/international security. In crude words, it is a settlement about the distribution of power and behaviour in the international relations. In the given anarchic environment, it seeks to turn power into order. It is a sophisticated power game in which powerful states, along with middle and weaker states, tend to tie down their security relations (political, military, and economic) to certain new rules and regulations, so as to achieve enduring peace and security, rather than relying on costly and risky unilateral actions. Security order tends to mute power asymmetries as much as possible in the international politics. Equally important, it injects restraint and increases predictability. Security order is thus seen as an important security value, as well as security instrument. Major actors normally compete with each other to construct a favourable security order. Since arms control activities greatly affect the distribution of military power and behaviour in a given politico-strategic context, the potential adversaries often tend to link it with their broader defence, and foreign policy objectives. In this wider context, they feel tempted to see the interconnectedness between military and non-military issues. Also, they mark the link between bilateral and multilateral arrangements. Seen in this way, the arms control is thought to achieve from minimum to maximum ‘balance’ within the system of international relations as a whole. Fundamentally, arms control undertakings help to reconcile who, what, why, where, and how certain critical components of the military means will hold, in line with their projected geo-politico- strategic manoeuvrings, in a muted way. It gives rise to national, regional, and international institutional arrangements to regulate and reinforce mutually agreed conception of defence policy, foreign policy, and regional/international security order.57

56 John Baylis, “Arms Control and Disarmament,” in Strategy in the Contemporary World: An Introduction to Strategic Studies, eds. John Baylis, et al., (New York: Oxford University Press, 2002), 203. Lawrence Freedman has also noted this value of arms control in the termination phase of the Cold War. Lawrence Freedman, “Arms Control: Thirty Years On,” Daedalus, 120, no. 1(winter, 1991): 70-71. Bull, “Arms Control and World Order,” International Security 1, no. 1 (summer, 1976): 3-16. 57 G. John Ikenberry, After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order After Major Wars (Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2001), 3-20. Richard Falk explained the orientation of the Cold War arms 16 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

This shows that arms control significantly contributes to the political, strategic, economic, moral, and social realms. This also establishes why it is so important to pursue arms control in the first place. These objectives are both exploratory and analytical. Largely, these objectives are internally consistent and mutually reinforcing. At the same time, the relationship between some of these objectives is not without complications and to an extent, entails contradictions.58 To substantiate, almost every listed objective positively contributes towards the prime objective of arms control-establishing security order. Meanwhile, objectives (a), (b), and (c) may appear offsetting each other to some degree. State parties may pursue one or more than one objective at a given time. In this regard, they decide upon and prioritize the objective(s) in the light of their current and anticipated politico-strategic environment. They make decisions chiefly in relation to their key politico-strategic and economic interests. In doing so, they also seem to keep their social and moral interests in view. There is a broad spectrum of measures under the rubric of arms control. The rival states normally agree to different arms control measures in line with the objective(s) in hand. The arms control measures significantly vary in terms of their content, intricacy, and implications.59 Meanwhile, these measures may overlap and reinforce each other. They are arbitrarily classified into the following distinctive measures: a) declaratory, b) architectural, c) structural, d) functional, and e) data exchange.60 Declaratory measures help to articulate the basic concept and structure of the security framework/order. The measures usually include joint declarations about security relationship, non-aggression pacts, rules of engagement, and so on. Architectural measures shape and reinforce the political geometry of the region/world.61 They may embrace measures of demilitarization, denuclearization, and neutralization of particular geographical areas. Such geographical security zones work as vehicles for political rearrangements and assurances among the state parties. The structural measures concern the quality, size, and composition of the

control efforts by saying that “arms control measures have served mainly to ratify the bipolar dominance of international politics and to maximize the stability of this dominance from a managerial standpoint.” See, Richard A. Falk, “Arms Control, Foreign Policy, and Global Reform,” Daedalus 104, no. 3 (summer, 1975): 40. 58 Jennifer Sims, Icarus Restrained: An Intellectual History of Nuclear Arms Control, 1945-1960 (Boulder: Westview, 1991). 59 Morgan, “General Elements of Theory,” in Arms Control: History, Theory and Policy, 17. 60 Johan Jorgen Holst, “Arms Control in the Nineties: A European Perspective,” Daedalus 120, no. 1 (winter, 1991): 96-100. 61 Ibid. On Concept of Arms Control 17

military establishments. The measures significantly affect the force posture and force level. The overriding purpose of these measures is to communicate reassurance about intentions and incentives. The peacetime activity-oriented measures fall squarely into the category of functional measures.62 These measures regulate the size, composition, frequency of military exercises and manoeuvres, and other military related activities in the national border areas. These measures reduce fears of preparations and their potential impact on political relations. Finally, data exchange measures concern force planning and routine military activities. The parties can exchange data concerning military expenditures, major weapons holdings, developments, procurements, and objectives of future force planning.63 In addition, these measures may also include notifications and observance of military exercises, missile test flights, nuclear installations, and reporting of accidents. The different arms control undertakings- processes, measures, and related institutional arrangements- generate certain values to achieve different objectives. In so many ways, arms control is a negotiating process and negotiated outcome. It develops a communication link between contending parties, allowing them to discuss their contentious security issues ranging from politics to military, and economy. Freedman reinforces that arms control is a means of “providing a forum for dialogue on military issues, a means of signalling shifts on broader political questions, and so on.”64 Some analysts have gone one-step further in stating that arms control activities help adversaries to ‘educate’ each other in relation to their security conceptions, strategies, force postures, levels, and operational activities and their link. The second value that arms control tends to produce is what Joseph Nye has called ‘reassurance.’65 Through the process of communication, potential adversaries may identify points of contention, and explore some relevant arms control measures to reassure each other. In doing so, they bring about transparency and predictability in their military behaviour, which certainly alleviate misperception and security dilemma.

62 Richard E. Darilek, and John K. Setear, “Constraints in Europe,” in Conventional Arms Control and East-West Security, eds. Robert D. Blackwill, and F. Stephen Larrabee (London: Duke University Press, 1989), 402. 63 Holst, “Arms Control in the Nineties: A European Perspective,” 100. 64 Freedman, “Arms Control: Thirty Years On,” Daedalus 120, no. 1 (1991): 72. 65 Joseph S. Nye, “Arms Control and International Politics,” Daedalus 120, no. 1 (1991): 161. 18 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Conclusion Presently, there is the rise of great power political conflict, geo- political rivalries, and disruptive technologies amidst transition in international security order. As geo-politics evolves, the arms control structures are coming under great-stress. US, Russia, European Union, China, and other lesser regional players, are, now, increasingly involved in restructuring security order. US and Russia are unravelling their former bilateral arms control agreements one by one. Along with this, China, European powers, and other lesser regional powers are without a common arms control agenda. Yet worse, the world powers are committing themselves for burgeoning arms build-up, as part of their balancing act against each other. What does this mean for arms control? Many commentators have viewed these developments as an end to arms control. As distilled, arms control is a skin not a sweater to the body of international relations. It adapts to changing geo-political context. It mutates its form and role, as international security landscape evolves. The emerging security order is less transparent and less stable. It needs to be replaced with transparent and well-functioning security order undergirded by expanded arms control structures. To this end, a greater strategic empathy and decompartmentalization of arms control are essential across national, regional, and international levels.

Pakistan: The 21st Century World Order 19

THE 21ST CENTURY WORLD ORDER AND PAKISTAN

Hassan Farooq,Muhammad Khan & Sidra Khan

Abstract The rise and fall of the great powers is one of the key driving forces of international politics. At the dawn of the 20th century, Pax- Britannica was the center of international politics but the 21st century unveiled with Pax-Americana as the pivot of global politics, where the US emerged as an uncontested hegemon of the unipolar world system. However, in its overstretched hegemonic commitments and hyper-power mania, the American economy bitterly suffered. Ultimately the rising powers especially, China, launched an enterprise to realign the contemporary world system to anything but the unipolar world. Pakistan, though not a claimant of the great power status; yet its geostrategic location in the South-West Asian heartland, awards it significance in the foreign policy goals of global powers. It is anticipated that in the changing global system, Pakistan would have an unavoidable relevance due to reciprocated relations with the US, growing ties with Russia and lasting strategic partnership with China. Keywords: Unipolar, Unilateralist, Multipolar, Declinism, Triumphalism

Introduction he cycle of rise and fall among the great powers is one of the major driving forces of transition in the global system. During the 20th T century, the overall world order transformed from multipolarity to bipolarity and in the end to unipolar construction. Since the dawn of the 21st century, the US-led hegemonic world system has been consistently challenged by the rising powers that are dissatisfied and striving for the

 Visiting Faculty, Department of Politics & IR, International Islamic University, Islamabad. Email: [email protected]  Professor at the Department of Politics & International Relations, International Islamic University, Islamabad. Email: [email protected]  PhD Scholar at School of Politics & IR in Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad. Email: [email protected] 20 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 transition of world order to multipolar or multicentric international system. Amid this confrontational situation, a developing state like Pakistan, for its highly significant geostrategic position and the rapidly emerging new dynamics of international politics, can certainly have substantial implications in the future world system. During the bipolar world, the United States and the Soviet Union, the leaders of Capitalist and Communist blocks, confronted each other in maintaining balance of power. However, after disintegration of the former Soviet Union, the US, in unipolar world order, relished an uncontested worldwide hegemony and there were not any serious calculations coming from any of its potential challengers. Washington aimed at enjoying the political, economic and strategic remunerations of its supremacy that was not only confessed but hailed by majority of states, including its traditional rivals. Kurt Andersen maintains that obviously the best decade ever in the recent American history was the 1990s,1 the era of its “unipolar moment.” The United States economy grew incredibly by displaying major drop in unemployment and poverty, in addition to around 1.7 million annual job opportunities and four percent annual growth rate.2 However, since the dawn of the 21st century, in its unilateralist approach and ambitious undertakings of hyper power, the US could not escape bearing massive political, economic and military encumbrances.3 Eventually, the United States could not avoid the marks of its declinism from hegemonic triumphalism.4 Simultaneously, the rising great powers are also striving to reshape the contemporary world system. Hence, the nature of engagement amid the emerging great powers and the declining superpower is deliberated as the pivot of 21st century world order, where strategically sanctified state like Pakistan may also come across serious challenges and solemn opportunities.

Theoretical Framework The transformation of world order is a highly complex issue that demands an in depth study of international relations paradigms. The realist theory is certainly pertinent in analyzing the dynamics of world

1 Kurt Andersen, "The Best Decade Ever? The 1990s, Obviously," The New York Times, February 6, 2015, https://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/08/ opinion/sunday/the-best-decade-ever-the-1990s-obviously.html 2 James Pethokoukis, “Explaining the 1990s Economic Boom- Before Hillary Does,”AEIdeas, February 12, 2015, http://www.aei.org/publication/ explaining-1990s-economic-boom-hillary/ 3 John Ikenberry, "Getting Hegemony Right: Analysis of the United States as a ‘Hyper Power’ Nation," The National Interest, 63, (Spring 2001), http://www. findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2751/is_2001_Spring/ai/ 4 David Calleo, "Hegemony and Decline: Reflections on Recent American Experience," Sens Public (2005): 2-8. Pakistan: The 21st Century World Order 21 order and the role of great powers in maintaining or challenging the global system. The realist thinkers emphasize the quest of power, as being an inexorable driving force of states’ undertakings in the international politics. In the past few decades the rapidly rising China has been maximizing its overall national power that is undeniably a serious concern for the American establishment in Washington and the Pentagon as well as a great challenge to its global hegemony, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region.5 On the other hand the US is also confronting some serious challenges as the internal drivers of its declining hegemony like trade deficit, depreciating dollar and growing defense spending.6 The interplay amid the declining hegemon and the emerging great powers would be the pivot of the future world order. The discourse of hegemonic powers and their roles in the world order also validates the hegemonic stability theory (HST), which upholds that the presence of a capable and committed hegemon in the global system usually results order and stability.7 The HST maintains that the hegemon helps in articulating and administering the rules of engagement among the key stakeholders of the global system. However, this argument better suits unipolarity, since in the bipolar and multipolar systems this paradigm falls short of substantial elucidation. At the same time, the Chinese claim for peaceful rise and lack of sizable empirical evidence of its capability and commitment for hegemonic designs also direct the debate from the hegemonic model to the power driven realist model. However, the Sino-US enormous trade ties, their commitments to the key international organizations and the engagement of Pakistan with both the great powers also warrant relevance of the complex interdependence theory. The US and China are key strategic players in the Indian Ocean as well as Asia-Pacific region and despite their strategic rivalries the two great powers are the world’s largest trading partners.8 The China’s drive of investing billions of dollars worldwide investment and economic assistance plans for Pakistan also certifies the applicability of complex interdependence paradigm. Hence, the interplay of these triangulated relations amid the great powers – the US and China – and the developing country like Pakistan, entails greater diversity and complexity.

5 Christopher Layne,"Avoiding a Sino-American Confrontation," Atlantisch Perspectief 39, no. 4 (2015): 3-8. 6 Kalim Siddiqui, "The US Dollar and the World Economy: A Critical Review," Athens Journal of Business & Economics 6, no. 1 (2020): 21-44. 7 Duncan Snidal, "The Limits of Hegemonic Stability Theory," International Organization (1985): 579-614. 8 Hassan Farooq, and Muhammad Khan, "Sino-Russian Role in the 21st Century World Order," Central Asia 86, no. Summer (2020): 29-49. 22 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Pakistan’s Relevance in the Transforming World Order Ever since the dawn of the 21st century, the rising players, mainly China and Russia, have been looking for the opportunities of maximizing their power and ultimately challenging the American supremacy. The geostrategic worth of some of the middle-rank states may also render them greater relevance in the future world system. Pakistan, though neither a claimant nor ambitious of great power status, still its geostrategic significance has generally been inescapable for the global powers. As a result of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, millions of Afghans fled to Pakistan making it the base camp for American weapons and proxy war instruments against the Soviets. Thousands of guerilla fighters from around the world were trained and transported into Afghanistan as mujahedeen and more than 80 percent of the coalition supplies reached Afghanistan through Pakistan.9 However, after the withdrawal of the Russian troops, Washington withdrew its military and economic assistance from Islamabad. In the post 9/11 era, once again Pakistan was awarded with the title of “frontline state” of the US-led ‘War on Terror’ campaign in Afghanistan.10 The economic and military assistance of Pakistan was not only restored but increased by manifold.11 In regards to the future world system, the geostrategic position of Pakistan in the South-West Asian heartland, a region connecting the world’s population and energy hubs at its West and East, renders the country a greater degree of significance. Recent developments in the region like; the Sino-Indian border clashes at the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the American drawdown from Afghanistan and its talks with Taliban, the growing tensions in the Middle East and China’s drive of expanding its transnational influence; have charmed Pakistan at the center stage of regional dynamics among the great powers. The United States has repeatedly expressed its expectation that Pakistan’s assistance is inexorable in pursuing the American interests in the region, particularly in the Kabul peace process. The rising power, China, also understands that its strategic ties with Pakistan can play a vital role in projecting China’s future goals in the region and also world over.12 With the changing geopolitics and growing conflicts of interests

9 Bruce Riedel, "Pakistan’s Role in the Afghanistan War's Outcome," The Economist (2010). 10 Lubna Sunawar, "Pakistan as a Frontline State in War against Terrorism: Cost & Benefit Analysis," Journal of Political Studies, Vol. 22, Issue 1, (2015): 43. 11 Aid to Pakistan by the Numbers, “Pakistan: US Development Strategy,” Center for Global Development, https://www.cgdev.org/page/aid-pakistan-numbers 12 Raymond Lee, “The Strategic Importance of Chinese-Pakistani Relations,” Al Jazeera Centre for Studies, 2016, https://studies.aljazeera.net/sites/ default/files/articles/reports/documents/9b022a8c6ca84fda83be016f0376 d27f_100.pdf. Pakistan: The 21st Century World Order 23 amid the United States, China and Russia, the Sino-Russian nexus, the Sino- US global trade war along with other major developments in the region would surge Pakistan’s relevance. Therefore, Islamabad needs to be extremely careful in handling the complexities of transition from the American hegemonic triumphalism13 to a world of multiple power centers.

Dynamics of the Future World Order On the basis of comprehensive analyses of different variables of power, the economic indicators, military statistics and political sway, this study endeavours to determine the top rank global players and their role in the future world system. The United States and China are projected as the great powers in the 21st century world order. Pakistan’s engagement with these powers shall award it a greater relevance due to its lasting and varied engagement with the US, growing ties with Russia and enduring strategic partnership with the rising great power, China. Global Economies Historical assessment of global politics reveals that once a state attains economic supremacy, it ultimately undertakes for military dominance. Prior to its military ascendance and hegemonic enterprise, the United States continued as the largest global economy for decades.14 Christopher Layne argues that almost all the great powers repeat the same rising pattern; likewise in future world system, China would also be ultimately rejuvenated by its exceptional economic growth and huge share in global trade to establish its military dominance at the regional and global levels.15 Eventually, Beijing would also be striving for a significant shift in the global balance of power to a multipolar world order. Figure 1: An Outline of the Great Power Rise Pattern

Source: Christopher Layne, "After the Fall: U.S. Grand Strategy After the Pax- Americana

13 David Calleo,"Hegemony and Decline: Reflections on Recent American Experience," Sens public (2005). 14 Joseph S Nye, “The Future of Power,” Public Affairs, (2011). 15 Christopher Layne, "This Time it's Real: The End of Unipolarity and the Pax Americana," International Studies Quarterly 56, no. 1 (2012): 203-213. 24 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Gross Domestic Products GDP is the measure of inclusive monetary or market assessment of the overall finished goods, products and services of certain state. It is the vital indicator of the all-inclusive scorecard of economic health of the country. The World Bank highlights the following countries as the world’s largest economies by 2018 Table 1: Top Ten GDPs in 201816 Ranking Country US$ Billions Ranking Country US$ Billions 1 USA 20,494.10 6 France 2,777.50 2 China 13,608.20 7 India 2,726.30 3 Japan 4,970.90 8 Italy 2,073.90 4 Germany 3,996.80 9 Brazil 1,868.60 5 UK 2,825.20 10 Canada 1,709.30 Source: World Development Indicators Database 2018, ‘World Bank’. The combined GDP of the European Union is US Dollar 18,749 Billion.17 Once pooled together, the EU accounts for the world’s second largest economic power center. Hence, overall statistics reveal that the US, EU, China and Japan are the Group of Four (G-4) economic power centers of the world. Table 2: Comparison of Top Nominal GDPs (2019-23)18

Source: World Development Indicators Database 2018, ‘World Bank’ The global GDPs ranking may change substantially in future. Maintaining their current growth, the emerging economies of Asia may exceed the world’s top players. The International Monetary Funds (IMF) maintains that from 2019 to 2023; the US, EU, China and Japan world’s top four (G-4) GDPs19. However, in terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) the G-3 economies would be China, US and India

16 “World Development Indicators Database 2018,” World Bank, 2018, http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators. 17 Ibid. 18 Ibid. 19 “World Economic Outlook Database,” International Monetary Fund, Washington DC (October, 2018), https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/ weo/2018/02/weodata/index.aspx. Pakistan: The 21st Century World Order 25 respectively.20 Table 3: Comparison of Top 10 GDPs PPP (2019-23)21 Current 2019 Percent Share Projected GDP in Projected Country Ranking (US$B) in Global GDP 2023 (US$B) Ranking China 1 27,449 19.2 37,198 1 USA 2 21,482 15 24,671 2 India 3 11,413 7.98 16,575 3 Japan 4 5,807 4.06 6,380 4 Germany 5 4,555 3.18 5,184 5 Russia 6 4,345 3.04 4,966 7 Indonesia 7 3,753 2.62 4,969 6 Brazil 8 3,524 2.46 4,149 8 UK 9 3,145 2.2 3,609 9 France 10 3,081 2.15 3,541 10 Source: “World Economic Outlook Database,” International Monetary Fund, (October, 2018) The indicators of Gross Domestic Products certainly verify that in terms of both gauges, the nominal and PPP, majority of global economic players will remain the same in future decades. Obviously, the United States and China would maintain their position as being the two economic superpowers or G-2 economies in the 21st century world system. These two economic giants would be predominantly succeeded by the emerging economies, predominantly those from Asia. Table 4: Comparison of the Largest GDPs (PPP) between 2017 &203022

Source: Desjardins Jeff, World’s Largest Economies in 2030, Visual capitalist (2019)

Global Trades The volume of global trade is a vital indicator of overall economic status of a country. Countries having major share in global trade enjoy

20 Ibid. 21 Ibid. 22 Jeff Desjardins, “World’s Largest Economies in 2030,” Visual Capitalist, January 11, 2019, https://www.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-largest-10- economies-2030/ 26 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 stronger influence in the international politics. In the globalized world, geo-economics has overturned geopolitics. Interstate ties mainly aim at enhancing transnational trade; and complex political issues among competing nations are overlooked for attracting trades. Besides numerous conflicts, China maintains massive trade with the US, India and Japan. The United States has since long been holding the title of the largest global economy and a prominent trade player, by earning around 20 percent of the world’s overall income.23A famous American financial group, The Balance, indicates that in 2019 the United States’ trade valued around US$ 5.6 Trillion; out of that US$ 2.5 Trillion are exports and US$ 3.1 Trillion imports.24 According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC), United States accounts for the 3rd largest exports and the 2nd largest imports in the world.25 Table 5: American Exports and Imports (1995-2017) US$ Billion26 3000

2000

1000 EXPO…

0 IMPOR…

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2003 Source: The Observatory of Economic Complexity, USA (2017)

China’s growth rate and international trade displayed were exceptional rise in past three decades. The key indicator of its economic boom is the progressively rising volume of exports, making China the world’s largest export economy. The OEC report 2017 indicated that Beijing maintained around US$ 4 trillion exports and US$ 1.54 trillion imports, the world’s 2nd largest importer.

23 Kimberly Amadeo, “Their Risks Derivatives, and their Rewards,” The Balance, March 21, 2019,https://www.thebalance.com/swap-line-definition-purpose- examples-3305966. 24 Kimberly Amadeo, “US Trade Deficit by Country, With Current Statistics and Issues: Why America Cannot Just Make Everything It Needs,” The Balance, February 10, 2020,https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-imports-and-exports- components-and-statistics-3306270. 25 OEC, United States, Observatory of Economic Complexity, 2017,https://oec.world/en/profile/country/usa/. 26 Ibid. Pakistan: The 21st Century World Order 27

Table 6: Chinese Exports and Imports 1995 – 2017 (US$ Billion)27

Source: The Observatory of Economic Complexity, China (2018).

European Union is a major player in the overall world trade; however certain variations can be noted in its global trade data. The ‘World’s Top Exports’ indicates that in 2018, the combined EU’s exports were Dollar 6.445 Trillion, accounting for around 37 percent share of the international trade.28 There is certain second tier of global economies in various regions of the world, particularly from Asia are consistently striving for their key roles in the international economic order and the overall global system. These players may not surpass the G-3 economies, yet they may have certain role in coming decades. India’s growth remained highly promising in last few decades. It was estimated that by 2030, it may overturn Japan and the US. However, according to the official figures of Indian Ministry of Statistics and Program implementation, the country’s economy is facing severe challenges; with sharp decline in growth from 2016 and lowest since 2013.29

27 OEC, China, Observatory of Economic Complexity, 2018, https://oec.world/en/profile/country/china/, last accessed December 19, 2020. 28 Daniel Workman, World's Top Exports, 2018, http://www.worldstopexports. com/category/countries/european-exporters, last accessed December 19, 2020. 29 Government of India, “Trading Economics; Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation,” http://www.mospi.gov.in/slider/graph-1, last accessed December 19, 2020. 28 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Table 7: Indian GDP Growth (2016 - 2019)30

Source: Government of India: Trading Economics, Ministry of Statistics and Program implementation

Overall Assessment of the Global Economies Comprehensive analysis of global economies specifies that China, USA and EU are the G-3 economic powers. Though American hegemony is declining; yet it will continue as a great power. China is aggressively challenging the American status-quo by exporting trillions of dollars as investment throughout the world to maximize its overall global power and influence. The Sino-EU economic interdependence, particularly through Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) can play vital role in shifting the pivot of global system from the “West” to the “East” or the “Rest”.31 Hence, the likelihood of transition in the contemporary international system to a multipolar or multicentric world order in 21st century is quite understandable. Global Military Powers Military might is the most significant aspect of national power; out of all its forms, none is more crucial than military clout of a country. Since, countries with strong militaries certainly enjoy greater security and stability; while weaker states are always at the mercy of their powerful neighbors and rivals. Military advantage helps in neutralizing the hostility of aggressors and reducing the contenders in international power politics. Expansion of military power, as stated by the realist school of thought, has been the essence of rising to the great power status. Several weaker nations confronted ruination; since military power was the most dominant parameter of national power. In the modern liberal international system, the traditional phenomenon of power balancing related to just mounting the military arsenal has predominantly been overtaken by new trends, as provoked by the Neorealists that states maximize and utilize power to counterweight their rivals.

30 Ibid. 31 Fareed Zakaria, "The Post-American World," The New York Times, May 6, 2008, https://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/06/books/chapters/books.html Pakistan: The 21st Century World Order 29

Military consolidation marks states as global powers. However, certain great powers eventually faced destabilization for their excessive militarization; for disproportionately allocated resources to forces undermined the other components of national power; like the USSR. On the contrary, failure in military investments has failed the great powers in confronting their rivals; like, France nosedived in counterbalancing the German power and lost its control over Europe in the 19th and 20th centuries.32 Comprehensive details of the global militaries are mentioned below.

United States The ‘Global Fire Power’, reports that out of 138 countries, USA is the world’s strongest military power33. Apart from the primary objective of defending USA from internal or external threats; its armed forces are meant to protect the Americans, their worldwide interests and their allies. The US forces ensure the freedom of international waters and airspace; simultaneously undertaking numerous contingencies in various parts of the world. United States is the largest defense spender with US$ 750 Billion, 300 percent higher than China’s (2nd rank) and 700 percent higher than Russia’s defense budgets.34 Having unique geography between the Atlantic and Pacific; with 9,826,675 km2 area; 12,000 km borders and 20,000 km coastline; the US maintains one of the world’s largest militaries with 2.26 million personnel.35 The US army maintains 6,417 attack helicopters (1st rank), 400 percent more than Russia; 8,725 tanks and around 10,000 nuclear weapons.36 The United States also maintains the world’s largest airpower with around; 13,400 aircrafts (quarter of the world) and 13,500 airports.37 The US has 800 military bases around the world, several times more than the collective bases of its competitors.38 The American Navy is among the

32 Michael Howard, “The Franco-Prussian War: The German Invasion of France 1870–1871,” Routledge, 2013. 33 “Military Strength Ranking,”Global Fire Power, 2020, https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp? country_id=united-states-of-america, last accessed December 19, 2020. 34 Ibid. 35 Ibid. 36 Ibid. 37 Ibid. 38 David Vine, “Base Nation: How U.S. Military Bases Abroad Harm America and the World,” Metropolitan, 2015;David Vine, “List of US Military Bases Abroad,” 2017, American University, http://dx.doi.org/10.17606/M6H599; John Glaser, “Withdrawing from Overseas Bases: Why a Forward-Deployed Military Posture Is Unnecessary, Outdated, and Dangerous,” Policy Analysis 816, CATO Institute, July 18, 2017;Frank Jacobs, “The World’s Five Military 30 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 world’s largest fleets with 415 ships; 68 submarines, 24 aircraft carriers and overall 33 major ports.39 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reports that United States is the largest arms exporter in the world with around 36 percent share in global arms exports.40 By 2018, the American firms received orders of around 900 fighter aircrafts, more than half of the world’s jet sales.41 Russia Traditionally, the Russian military has remained one of the most overriding powers throughout the world, predominantly since last two centuries. Geographically, Russia is the world’s largest country, having 17,098,242 km2 area; 22,408 km borders and a coastline of 37,653 km.42 Moscow maintains one of the most powerful forces; around 3.6 million personnel; and the leading stocks of nuclear weapons in the world.43 According to SIPRI; the Russian military spending in 2018 were US$B 61.4 (world’s 6th highest).44 However, Michael Kofman argues that Russian defense spending is actually US$B 150-180 (world’s 3rd largest) several times higher than the declared amount and enough to undermine the collective defense expenditures of major EU states.45 Russia has the world’s highest number (21,932) of tanks, 300 percent higher than the US; and around 50,000 armored fighting vehicles. It has one of the world’s strongest air forces; 4,078 military aircrafts and 1,218 airports.46 Russian Navy maintains one of the world’s largest fleets;

Empires,” Big Think, July 10, 2017, http://bigthink.com/strange-maps/the- worlds-five-military-empires; Damien Sharkov, “Russia’s Military Compared to the U.S.” Newsweek, June 8, 2018, http://www.newsweek.com/russias- military-compared-us-which-country-has-moremilitary-bases-across-954328 39 Military Strength Ranking, “Global Fire Power, 2019,” https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.asp 40 “World Military Expenditure Grows to $1.8 Trillion in 2018,”Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, https://www.sipri.org/media/press- release/2019/world-military-expenditure-grows-18-trillion-2018 41 Frederic S. Pearson, “The Global Spread of Arms: Political Economy of International Security,” Routledge, 2018. 42 Military Strength Ranking, Global Fire Power, 2019. 43 Ibid. 44 Wezeman, Fleurant, Kuimova, Tian and Wezeman, “Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2018,”SIPRI Fact Sheet, March, 2019, https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2019-03/fs_1903_at_2018.pdf. 45 Michal Kofman,”Russian Defense Spending is Much Larger and more Sustainable than it seems,” Defense News, May 3, 2019,https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2019/05/03/ru ssian-defense-spending-is-much-larger-and-more-sustainable-than-it-seems/ 46 Military Strength Ranking, Global Fire Power, 2019. Pakistan: The 21st Century World Order 31 around 600 ships, 62 submarines and only one aircraft carrier.47 Being the 2nd largest arms exporter, Russia shipped military products of Dollar 14.5 Billion (around 21 percent of global arms trade) in the year 2015.48 In terms of military statistics, in majority of other comparisons, Russia maintains either second or third place at the international level. The current president Vladimir Putin aims to reinstate Russia as a global power, which is indispensable to restructure the American-led unipolar system.49 The Russian military power is on the rise and unlike the Cold War, it is emphasizing at the notion of smaller but better forces, maintaining more mobility and highly balanced approach, which is speedily becoming more proficient in handling the wide ranging modern warfare tactics. The Russian military forces are not only capable of intervening in countries of its periphery, but they are also skilled to operate far away in the Middle East.50 The Russian operation for annexing Crimea in 2014; its political mobilization as well as combat move in Eastern Ukraine; and finally the will and pace of the Russian troops in Syrian operation; startled the entire world. These engagements are highly significant illustrations of Moscow’s future designs and its ambitions for leading role in the 21st century multipolar world order.51 China The demography of China is exceptional; having the world’s largest population and standing army with 1,385 and 2.7 million respectively. China covers 9.6 mil km2 area, 22,457 km borders, 14,500 km coastline, about 500 airports.52 Since the beginning of 21st century, China has focused upon the expansion and modernization of Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) with 10 percent annual hike in its defense budget.53 However, correct numbers of its military spending have mostly been questioned; as in 2018 its official defense budget was US$B 170, but certain estimations expressed it around Dollar 239 Billion.54

47 Ibid. 48 Richard Connolly and Sendstad Cecilie, “Russia's Role as an Arms Exporter: The Strategic and Economic Importance of Arms Exports for Russia,” Chatham House, 2017. 49 Vladimir Frolov, “Putin Seeks Entente Cordiale with the West,” Opinion: The Moscow Times, November 24, 2015, http://www.themoscowtimes.com. 50 Ibid. 51 Ibid. 52 Military Strength Ranking, Global Fire Power, 2019 53 Russia Power Military, "Building a Military to Support Great Power Aspirations," Defense Intelligence (2017). 54 China Power Team, "What does China Really Spend on its Military?" Center for Strategic and International Studies 28 (2015), https://chinapower. csis.org/military-spending/ 32 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

China’s armed forces are equipped with 13,000 tanks and 3,187 military aircrafts, 2nd and 3rd largest in the world.55 China has been maintaining one of the biggest and recklessly growing navies around the world. A former US Navy officer admits that once absolutely dominant in the Far-East region, currently the American ships sails very guardedly in the yellow waters.56 The PLA naval fleet has been belligerently modernized to defend China’s interests in the region and also to encounter the serious challenges of the 21st century politics. The rapid rise of China is also driving the PLA to follow the strategy of modernization and indigenization. The Chinese military industry is fulfilling its own defense requirements and it is also exporting range of military equipment to other developing nations like, Pakistan to earn revenue and also expand its political influence.

Analyses of Global Military Powers Throughout the 20th century, the United States remained the world’s most decisive military power. Any actor, intending to rupture the American interests or disrupt the overall world order had to bear the ferocity of the US military. Nonetheless, at the dawn of the 21st century, the American hegemony is no more simply inalienable. The additional engagements incurred by the self-imposed American commitments ultimately overburdened its economy and military. Simultaneously, the US has to confront; the emerging military powers, China and Russia; and their growing military influence in various regions. These military giants are massively pressurizing the US to spend more on its military for maintaining its hegemony. In the contemporary system, a great deal of disparity can be found in the military powers of the leading global actors. Majority of variables ascertain that the US military power is unparalleled; its defense spending is higher than that of the combined military budgets of eight succeeding armed forces.57 Conversely, China has speedily arisen as a new potential rival to the American military muscles, predominantly in Asia-Pacific as well as the Indian Ocean. Beijing has increased its defense spending by manifold, since the dawn of the 21st century. Russia also holds one of the world’s strongest and modern armed forces, capable of proving its power in the region and away.

55 Military Strength Ranking, Global Fire Power, 2019. 56 David Lague, and Benjamin Kang Lim, “The Chinese Challenge, Ruling the Waves:China’s Vast Fleet is Tipping the Balance in the Pacific,” Reuters, April 30, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/china-army- navy/ 57 Wezeman, Fleurant, Kuimova, Tian and Wezeman,”Trends in International Arms Transfers,” 2018. Pakistan: The 21st Century World Order 33

Even in the contemporary globalized world military power is still inevitable. Majority of the World powers have been consistently increasing their military spending. In 2018, the global defense outlay grew 2.6 percent as compared to the preceding year, with total volume of US$B 1822 and 76 percent increase in global defense budget between 1988 and 2018.58 The two largest global economies are the highest military spenders too. Nonetheless, United States, China and Russia are the world’s strongest military powers. Since the dawn of 21st century, Beijing and Moscow have strengthened their strategic alignment. These Eurasian powers have stark differences with the US on various issues in different regions of the world. China and Russia have constructed an underlying empathy on challenging the worldwide American hegemony. The United States seems offcolor; for the Trump regime is more focused on internal issues than the global commitments. From Brussels, the NATO’s headquarters, signals for the US are least promising, after conflicts with Turkey over the Syrian crisis.59 Germany and France, NATO’s key players, also have differences with USA on various global issues.

Second Tier of Military Powers Other than three military giants; France, UK and Germany are also among the most modern military powers. They can win further eminence, if pooled together as NATO members, though loosely connected. Quantitatively, these armed forces may lag behind the US, China and Russia; but qualitatively they are highly robust and equipped with most lethal weapons. The combined militaries of EU states will constitute a robust force and an indispensible great military power. However, Europeans have already constituted NATO, led by the US. Secondly, in case the Europeans withdraw from NATO for establishing their EU’s military component like, the European Parliament, there would be a leadership issue; as EU has already faced Brexit; after UK’s withdrawal.60 Several other players also exert for their key roles in international power politics. Some of this second tier of military powers; India, Brazil and Saudi Arabia; statistically stand among the largest militaries; while few others like, Pakistan, have unavoidable geostrategic significance. India, in some studies is projected as an emerging power. However, qualitative analysis of Indian military reveals obsolescence, particularly after its jets were shot down by Pakistan in February 2019.

58 Ibid. 59 “Turkey-Syria Offensive: US Sanctions Turkish Ministries,” BBC, October 15, 2019. 60 “Brexit: The UK has Officially Left the EU: What Happens Next?” BBC, January 31, 2020. 34 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

The New York Times labeled the Indian military equipment as “vintage”.61 The NYT also highlighted that its forces are facing grave challenges; for losing fighter planes to a country whose military is too small in numbers and expenditures.62 Gaurav Gogoi, a lawmaker and a member of India’s Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defense, highlights that Indian troops lack modern equipment.63 India is also facing regional and domestic challenges. Owing to a stark ethnic assortment in India, clashes between fundamentalist Hindus and the minorities are often reported. Reportedly, in some cases violence against minorities by Hindu extremists is supported by major political parties in the country, particularly the present administration of Narendra Modi and his political wing Bharatiya Janata Party are blamed.64 The United States Commission on International Religious Freedom, in 2019, reported the happenings of forced religious conversions, cases of hate crimes and provocation to violence against a number of religious minorities. The USCIRF report also maintains that the situation for these Indian minorities has dramatically deteriorated.65 Freedom movements in Indian held Kashmir and in different parts of the country are also serious issues. The people of this region have been consistently demanding for their legitimate and repeatedly promise right of self-determination since the era of partition of Indian-Subcontinent.66 The special status of Kashmir through Articles 370 and 35A of the Indian constitution has been repealed by Modi’s regime since the August 2019; and since then the state of Kashmir has been kept under the military control.67 The Sikhs community of India has also been dissatisfied with

61 Maria Abi-Habib, “After India Loses Dogfight to Pakistan, Questions Arise about its ‘Vintage’ Military,” The New York Times, March 3, 2019, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/03/world/asia/india-military-united- states-china.html 62 Ibid. 63 Ibid. 64 Paul Marshall, “Hinduism and Terror,”Hudson Institute, June 1, 2004,https://www.hudson.org/research/4575-hinduism-and-terror 65 Tier 2 India “United States Commission on International Religious Freedom Annual Report 2019,” USCIRF, Annual Report, 2019, https://www.uscirf.gov/reports-briefs/annual-report/2019-annual-report. 66 Muhammad Mumtaz, "Right of Self Determination for Kashmiri People; an International Law Perspective," International Journal of Business, Economics and Law 1 (2012). 67 Mehari Taddele Maru, “A New Cold War in Africa: Increasing Tensions between China and the US will be Detrimental to African Prosperity and Peace,”Aljazeera (Opinion/China), July 1, 2019, https://www.aljazeera.com /indepth/opinion/cold-war-africa-190630102044847.html Pakistan: The 21st Century World Order 35 behaviour of radical Hindu elements and it has been traditionally demanding for an independent territory, “Khalistan.”68 Despite being a major player, India could not establish its leadership role in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC); due to acceptability problem. India has several conflicts with majority of the countries in the region. There have been several territorial conflicts between China and India; the Kashmir dispute between Pakistan and India is one of the most debated issues of the world; while India also confronts numerous water and border issues with Bangladesh and Nepal.69 So the Indian designs of being a great power are overshadowed by various challenges it is facing at the domestic and regional levels.

Global Political Powers Global political powers or the great powers are the most influential international players. Countries with huge economies and overriding militaries also exercise political dominance. Another highly significant instrument of international power politics is the possession of Vito Power or permanent seat in United Nations Security Council. Hence, the US, China, Russia and EU (by virtue of Vito power of France and UK) are the major political centers worldover.70 Among the veto powers, the US indisputably clenches a distinct position. Since, so far it has been the only global power that is capable and committed to play its dominant role to ensure the overall world order. Other three players certainly play their role in streamlining the world system; but for their own interests; and none of them could so for override the American influence in global power politics.71 However, China is striving to expand its influence in various regions of the world by employing global trade and massive offshore investments as the instruments of political power, predominantly after launching its 1990s "Go Out" strategy.72

68 Muhmmad Iqbal Chawla, "The Khalistan Movement of 1984: A Critical Appreciation," South Asian Studies (1026-678X) 32, No. 1 (2017). 69 Afshana Parven & MS Hasan, "Trans-boundary Water Conflicts between Bangladesh and India: Water Governance Practice for Conflict Resolution," International Journal of Agricultural Research, Innovation and Technology 8, no. 1 (2018): 79-84. 70 Frans-Paul van der Putten, Jan Rood & Minke Meijnders, "Great Powers and Global Stability," Clingendael Monitor, 2016 https://www. Clingendael,org/sites/default/files/pdfs/clingendael_monitor, 2016- great_powers_and_global_stability-eng_0. pdf (2016). 71 Ibid. 72 Mehari Taddele Maru, “A New Cold War in Africa: Increasing Tensions between China and the US will be Detrimental to African Prosperity and Peace,”Aljazeera (Opinion/China), July 1, 2019. 36 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

The 21st Century World Order and the American Hegemonic Declinism Relations between the axes of global powers always have an impact on world order; it will certainly influence the future world order. The US-EU Transatlantic engagement remained the pivot of global politics in unipolar system; nonetheless, the core of 21st century world order would be the nature of Sino-US engagement.73 On the contrary, the Sino- Russian axis would be another critical aspect of the multipolar world; as the strategic partnership aims at advancing their worldwide influence and challenging the US hegemony at various forums. They have a resolve to effectively contest the American unilateralism and institute a balanced multilateral world order. Obviously, the most curious angle of this system would be the simultaneous presence of cooperation and conflict; and economic interdependence will be the core of Sino-US relations. The degree of cooperation and conflict amid great powers shall primarily govern the future world order. From the American hegemonic triumphalism to declinism is taken to be as the core of the 21st century world order. This hegemonic decline would mainly revolve around three hypotheses; the “crying wolf” symptoms, the “bionic man” syndrome and the analogy to classical “Roman Empire”74 Perhaps the “crying wolf” is the most critical notion, disturbing those who negate declinism. However, others strongly believe that indeed the “wolf” (China) has definitely arrived with its flamboyant entry on the global political theater. The “bionic man” syndrome is also based on opposing arguments between; those optimistic about the future American role and those eying at the rising great powers to redraw the outline of the 21st century world order.75 A renowned anti-declinist, Joseph S. Nye maintains that the US decline would be analogous to that of the “Roman Empire.” 76 He argues that just like the classical Roman Empire, the US decline would not occur radically, but it would be slow and steady. The profound counter argument is that Rome had no great power in opposition. Unlike the Roman; but very much like the British empire that did not take much longer to decline in early 20th century; the US as the leading but weakening hegemon is facing serious challengers; especially China and Russia; and therefore its decline may not take too long. However, despite its hegemonic decline, the United States would still survive as a key international player of the global system.

73 Frans-Paul van der Putten, Jan Rood & Minke Meijnders, 2016. 74 Amitav Acharya, “The End of American World Order,” John Wiley & Sons, 2018. 75 Ibid. 76 Joseph S. Nye, "Declinist Pundits," Foreign Policy 196 (2012): 64. Pakistan: The 21st Century World Order 37

The Under-Transition World Order: Implications for Pakistan Interstate relations have ever been a complex issue. Historically, weaker nations had always been at the mercy of imperial powers. However, with the passage of time, despite their rivalry or competition states have gradually learnt cooperate each other for mutual gains or international peace. Hence, the perception of national interests of all states, stronger or weaker, has become a dominant perception in the modern globalized system. Therefore, smaller but geographically significant states like Pakistan have also earned an inexorable position in international politics. Figure 2: South-West Asian Heartland-Linking the World’s Population & Energy Hubs

Source: https://www.infoplease.com/atlas/asia Pakistan is blessed with a vital geostrategic location in the South- West Asian heartland. There lives a huge mass of around 2,800 million people (mainly China & India) in its North-East.77 The North/South-West of Pakistan is the energy rich Central Asian and the Gulf regions; and any foreseeable transit between the world’s population and energy hubs shall pass through Pakistani territory. Owing to highly significant geostrategic location, since its existence in 1947, Pakistan has customarily been a part of the foreign policy goals of the great powers. It a well-known fact that Henry Kissinger’s renowned visit to Beijing in early 1970s could materialized only through the diplomatic involvement of Islamabad. As a result of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, eventually Pakistan also felt threatened by the so called expansionist designs of Moscow.78 However, the United States and its

77 “Current World Population,” World of Meters, https://www.worldometers. info/world-population/ 78 Geoffrey Warner, "Nixon, Kissinger and the Rapprochement with China, 1969–1972," International Affairs 83, no. 4 (2007): 763-781. 38 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Western allies supported the guerrilla fighters in the first Afghan war, making Pakistan effectively a basecamp of weapons and warriors for jihadists against the Soviet forces.79 Again the post 9/11 ‘War on Terror’ marked Pakistan as the front line state and non-NATO ally of the US. Therefore, Islamabad’s engagement with global powers and its role in the international power politics has mostly been unavoidable.

Pakistan-US Complex Engagement Islamabad and Washington have the decades-long history of inescapable but perplexed relations, where the two actors always holding a demand-lists in their mutual interactions. The earlier has been the on- and-off necessity of the later at the time of various critical circumstances in the region. On the contrary, Washington has been the economic and defense assistance destination of Islamabad.80 In their current engagement, the United States expects that Pakistan shall play a key role in convincing Taliban for talks; while Islamabad hopes that Washington must support it in resolving the long outstanding issue of Kashmir. The Sino-US growing tension may also demand in future that Pakistan must play its bridging role between the contenders, like it did in the past.81

Pakistan-China Strategic Ties The two neighbors have friendly ties and strategic partnership; ready to support each other at the global forums and also in internal challenges. Beijing has always helped Islamabad in building; energy, infrastructure and strategic installations; while the later has also supported the earlier in its odd times, particularly in the early decades of China’s isolation. Pakistan is the chief exports destination of Chinese defense products. The CPEC (China Pakistan Economic Corridor), worth billions of dollars investment and thousands of jobs, is the trademark of strategic and economic ties between the two nations. China aims to develop its western regions through CPEC, the shortest possible access to the Indian Ocean for its global trade. In the South-West of Pakistan, Gwadar Port lies at the outskirt of the Strait of Hormuz; the world’s biggest oil chokepoint and one of the busiest trade routes in the world; which may turn-out to be the focus of international politics, as if the tensions ever flare-up in the Middle East.82

79 Richard Sakwa, “The Rise and Fall of the Soviet Union,” Routledge, 2005. 80 Muhammad Hanif, "Pakistan-Russia relations: Progress, Prospects and Constraints," IPRI Journal 13, no. 2 (2013): 63-86. 81 Ziad Haider, “Could Pakistan Bridge the US-China Divide?” Foreign Policy, March 25, 2013,https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/03/25/could-pakistan- bridge-the-u-s-china-divide/ 82 “Strait of Hormuz, the World’s Biggest Oil Chokepoint, in Focus as U.S.-Iran Tensions Flare,” MarketWatch, January 6, 2020, Pakistan: The 21st Century World Order 39

The Port is a vital project of the Pak-China geostrategic partnership; and it may also attract wider significance in the regional and international perspectives of the future world system, particularly after the rising criticism against the CPEC from the US and India.83

Pakistan-Russia Growing Ties The two countries are the members of Shanghai Cooperation Organization, but have a history of unpromising relations. However, currently they are heading towards a new era of cooperation. Islamabad can benefit from Moscow in its defense and energy needs; while in Russia’s drive of fortifying regional and global influence, the later would like to see more constructive and result oriented engagement with earlier.84 Pakistan looks for the Russian investment in CPEC and its other energy and infrastructure projects; while its counterpart may like wider detachment between Islamabad and Washington.

Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations These two countries have historical and cultural relations. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the perpetual unrest forced millions of refugees across the Durand Line that badly affected the socio-economic fabric of Pakistan. In last four decades, the Afghan peace process has mostly been considered incomplete without taking Islamabad into confidence. Therefore, for the future roadmap of Afghanistan, all the stakeholder, particularly the great powers look towards Pakistan for its significant role. The authorities in Washington and Kabul also believe that negotiation with Taliban may not be result-oriented without Pakistan’s active involvement.

Pakistan-India as Traditional Rivals Pakistan and India have traditional rivalry of historical, ideological, territorial, political and economic rifts. Kashmir, cross-border infiltration and water management are the key issues between them. India, a key player in South Asia, also has contentions with China; while the two Indian neighbors have strong strategic ties for decades. Any significant development in the region may have fallout on Pakistan. The current escalations in Kashmir valley and the clashes on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) on the Indo-Chinese border can have spillover effects on the region,

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/strait-of-hormuz-the-worlds-biggest- oil-chokepoint-in-focus-as-us-iran-tensions-flare-2020-01-03 83 Shreya Talwar, "China–Pakistan Economic Corridor and its Geopolitical Implications," Centre for Air Power Studies (CAPS), 2015. 84 Muhammad Hanif, "Pakistan-Russia Relations: Progress, Prospects and Constraints," IPRI Journal 13, no. 2 (2013): 63-86. 40 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 especially Pakistan. Adopting the strategy of “Kin country syndrome’’ New Delhi would blame Pakistan for any incident, like it did in the case of Pulwama attack.85 Tensions amid China-India-Pakistan can spike any time that may eventually destabilize the whole region and even the entire world order. Therefore, Pakistan needs to revisit its customary and predictable response towards its traditional rival, India. Islamabad ought to have a logical and calculated retort to the Indian hysterical approach, especially across the line of control (LOC). It must also capitalize every opportunity to persuade India for dialogues at every regional and global forum to resolve all outstanding issues in a peaceful manner.

Pakistan and the Persian Gulf Pakistan has closer relations with majority of the Gulf States, particularly Saudi Arabia. Islamabad and Riyadh have supported each other in several critical times. On the contrary, Iran and Pakistan are neighbors, having satisfying ties. In the recent past, while tension grew between Tehran and Riyadh, the two regional competitors in the Gulf, Islamabad tried to defuse the situation by suggesting negotiations. In case of any future escalation between the two actors; once again Islamabad may be expected to play its considerable role in neutralizing the situation, as conflict in the region would directly and indirectly affect the internal and external dynamics of Pakistan.

Conclusion Pakistan is the only country around the world that is having regional or global powers at its borders. Its traditional rival, India lies in the East; the rising superpower, China in the North, Russia in the North- West periphery; the American military bases in Afghanistan; and a Persian Gulf’s regional power, Iran; are neighboring Pakistan. The strategic worth of the country is further intensified as it coastlines the Indian Ocean, one of the main theaters of the 21st century global politics. Such a highly critical geography renders a vital significance to the country. Since, any crucial development, positively initiated or negatively triggered, in the region will certainly have deeper impacts on Pakistan. Hence, multifaceted engagements of Islamabad with majority of the regional and global players would certainly establish its vital role in the 21st century world system. In the 21st century world order; Pakistan, though not a great power; may still remain on the center stage of international power politics, particularly due to crucial developments in its region. The contemporary world system is an era of transition or the age of new developments and

85 Moeed Yusuf, "The Pulwama Crisis: Flirting With War in a Nuclear Environment," Arms Control Today 49, no. 4 (2019): 6-11. Pakistan: The 21st Century World Order 41 new alignments. Various global power centers are aiming at new engagements in different regions of the world. Pakistan is geographically placed in a highly critical region; where China is rapidly rising and maximizing its regional and worldwide influence. The existing superpower, USA, has often expressed its intentions of China’s containment, particularly in the Indian Ocean. Any belligerence between the declining and the emerging superpowers would directly affect the internal and external dynamics of Pakistan. Therefore, Islamabad has to be extremely careful in its foreign policy choices, since it may not afford conflicting relations; either with the US or China and Russia. Pakistan needs to play its cards very intelligently and it has to maintain a balance in its relations with all the great powers; particularly with the two most significant among them, the US and China.

42 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

MARITIME CYBERSECURITY: VULNERABILITIES AND COUNTER MEASURES

Zaheema Iqbal & Muhammad Khurram Khan

Abstract In the era of technological advancements and digitization, the security phenomenon encompasses both physical and digital paradigms. The recent developments in cyber security domain reveal an increased number of cyberattacks on critical infrastructures, organizations, and industries. The maritime industry, being the critical infrastructure of any nation, is no exception to it, which is also vulnerable to cyberattacks. With terminals, vessels, ships, transport operators, ports and any other interconnected and integrated critical infrastructure are prone to cyberattacks. This paper discusses the important concepts such as ‘maritime’ and ‘cyber security in maritime industry’ and explains the utmost significance of cyber security at sea both on land and on board. It further discusses the major global cyber security incidents to determine vulnerabilities in maritime industry and also highlights challenges faced by maritime stakeholders amidst the COVID-19. Finally, this paper looks into existing cyber security measures and guidelines in the maritime industry.

Keywords: Maritime, Cybersecurity, Cyberthreats, Maritime Cyber Security, Covid-19

Introduction he maritime sector is known as ‘reactive’ in terms of setting regulations and standards based on catastrophic incidents. Citing an T example in this context would be the sinking of ‘RMS Titanic’ which clashed with an iceberg during her first journey to New York City from Southampton, United Kingdom on April 15, 1912.1 The Titanic was

 Senior Research Associate at National Institute of Maritime Affairs, Bahria University Islamabad. Email: [email protected]  The founder and CEO of the Global Foundation for Cyber Studies and Research. Email: [email protected] 1 Charles D. Michel, Paul F. Thomas, and Andrew E.Tucci, “Cyber Risks in the Marine Transportation System, The US Coast Guard Approach,” 2009, Maritime Cybersecurity 43

believed by the world to be indestructible, and it departed on her first trip having minimum lifejackets and lifeboats for the crew. It is noteworthy to mention that the shortage of safety and security equipment wasted more than 1500 lives.2 As a result, the global maritime community stepped forward and initiated the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS) Convention in 1913 to lay down shipping practices and regulations for international seafaring vessels.3 The next year brought together world maritime leaders in 1914, who mandated maritime safety requirements including capacity, loading, durability, lifeboat building requirements, and availability of lifejackets to every person onboard.4 In the context of cyber threats, global maritime community usually acts in reaction to the unprecedented event, which happens in cyber domain. There is no doubt that maritime cyberattacks are increasing than the maritime community believed due to unregulated attacks.5 It is largely due to the fact that ships of any country are foreign vessels and crewed by foreigners.6 For instance, the US Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration Office of Financial and Rate Approvals released a report, which analyzed the leading five port concentration areas in the US: Los Angeles, Houston, Miami, Newark/New York, and New Orleans.7 They actually drew special attention to the size of crew and nationalities of foreign-flag cargo vessels calling at US ports. The notable five flags for ships, which visit these ports include: Panama, Liberia, Cyprus, Bahamas, and Malta. The report stated that crewmembers belonging to 123 different

https://www.dco.uscg.mil/Portals/9/CGFAC/Documents/USCG_Paper_MTS_ CyberRisks.pdf 2 Mandy Savage, “Five Safety Lessons Learned from the Sinking of the Titanic,” EHS Today, April 14, 2015, https://www.ehstoday.com/safety/ article/21916859/five-safety-lessons-learned-from-the-sinking-of-the-titanic 3 Michael Clancy et al., Cruise Ship Tourism (Oxford: CABI, 2017). 4 Jolanta Joszczuk Januszewska, Importance of Cloud-Based Maritime Fleet Management Software (Springer, 2013), https://link.springer.com/book/ 10.1007/978-3-642-41647-7. 5 Don Walsh, “Oceans - Maritime Cyber Security: Shoal Water Ahead?” U.S. Naval Institute, February 21, 2019, https://www.usni.org/magazines/ proceedings/2015/july/oceans-maritime-cyber-security-shoal-water-ahead. 6 Steven L Caponi, and Kate B Belmont, “Maritime Cyber Security: A Growing Threat Goes Unanswered,” Intellectual Property & Technology Law Journal Vol 27, Issue 1, (2015), 16-18. 7 Alexeis Garcia Perez, Mick Thurlbeck, and Eddie How, “Towards Cyber Security Readiness in the Maritime Industry: A Knowledge-Based Approach,” Coventry University, 2017. https://pure.coventry.ac.uk/ws/portalfiles/ portal/12219284/Towards_Cyber_Security_Readiness_In_The_Maritime_Indu stry.pdf. 44 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 countries were found on foreign-flagged vessels.8 It shows that with so many distinct nationalities and stakeholders involved, regulating the vessels entering a port under cybersecurity standard is arduous to implement. Since the developments of information technology, computer networking, and software systems in maritime industry, various cybersecurity challenges have emerged with the passage of time. The information and data, driving the maritime operations and infrastructure are exposed to cyber criminals and groups who may pose a grave threat for the security of maritime industry. Within the context of maritime industry and maritime infrastructure, cybersecurity may be taken as the safeguarding of electronic networks, communication systems, software, control algorithms, users, unauthorized access, damage, manipulation and underlying data within the maritime infrastructure from various cyberattacks. In past, traditional threats like piracy were a common risk. In this regard, physical defense was all understood. On the contrary, cyber-attack at ships is not well understood thus, less countermeasures were taken. The latest technology in cyber-attacks and long durations increase cyber threats on maritime installations. Such maritime cyberattacks result in theft of information, business disruption, and damage to the reputation, environment, and goods etc. For instance, Automatic Identification System (AIS), which is used for vessel tracking and positioning, is not protected through encryption. Through spoofing, AIS signal can easily be used to disguise its position and make false navigation. Weak, unencrypted and authenticated signals are widespread for the determination of location. University of Texas has undertaken a test in 2013 in which, authentication was exploited and overpowered by a GPS spoofing device with the use of inbound signals.9 This test resulted into taking over the $80 Million vessels’ navigation system effectively. There are majority of companies worldwide, which are in process of commercializing blockchain technology in order to enhance virtual global trade platform.10 There are organizations, which are fostering the

8 Carmen Casado, “Vessels on The High Seas: Using A Model Flag State Compliance Agreement To Control Marine Pollution,” Scholarly Commons, March 2, 2005, https://scholarlycommons.law.cwsl.edu/cwilj/vol35/iss2/3/ 9 UT News, “UT Austin Researchers Successfully Spoof an $80 Million Yacht at Sea,” The University of Texas at Austin News, August 7, 2018, https://news.utexas.edu/2013/07/29/ut-austin-researchers-successfully- spoof-an-80-million-yacht-at-sea/ 10 “Annual Report 2018,” MAERSK, 2018, https://investor.maersk.com/news- release/news-release-details/annual-report-2018,accessed 29 March 2020. Maritime Cybersecurity 45

digital platforms for cyber security programs.11 Rolls Royce and Google are working on autonomous shipping and intelligent systems.12 Nevertheless, interconnected shipping industry calls for effective operational time and effectiveness of various processes for the transaction of every business. It is important to remember that development and progress of cybersecurity goes in parallel with the latest technological advancements. Nevertheless, insufficient knowledge with regards to cybersecurity issues and prospective challenges, which maritime companies face these days. This paper explores the significance of cyber security in the maritime industry and the major incidents occurred in near past. It also discusses how important it is to secure maritime infrastructure from cyber threats in this age of technological advancements. The first section of paper delineates the definitions of cyber security, maritime sector, and volume of cyber security in the maritime industry. The second section looks into incidents of cyberattacks on maritime infrastructure at global level and explains the cyber threats to maritime infrastructure during the COVID-19 times. The last section deals with the cyber security measures in the maritime industry.

Cyber Security Maritime Definitions Cyber security is a vast and broad term having context-bound, high variables, often subjective and uninformative definitions. There is literature available, which states the term cyber security, what does it mean and how it is placed within different contexts. However, the concise and broadly accepted definition of cyber security is still absent, which may capture the multidisciplinary approach.13 The maritime experts are yet to establish the universal definition of “maritime cyber security.” The Merriam-Webster defines cyber security as “measures taken to protect a computer or computer system against unauthorized access or attack.”14 From this definition, maritime cyber security could be defined as “cyber security measures adopted to protect or safeguard computer assets, networks on ports, terminals, ships, and computerized equipment which support maritime regular and classified operations.” Since the

11 Kongsberg Group, “KONGSBERG Launches Kognifai,” Kongsberg Digital, March 12, 2019, https://www.kongsberg.com/digital/resources/news-archive/ 2017/kongsberg-launches-kognifai/. 12 Sauli Eloranta, “Automated Maritime Transport: Why, How and When,” accessed September 24, 2020, https://vayla.fi/documents/20485/ 421305/Sauli_Eloranta_180117+Rolls+Royce+v1.pdf/7fe4fb37-f501-4e78- a1fd-7513b02dcc02. 13 James M. Kaplan, Beyond Cybersecurity: Protecting Your Digital Business (Hoboken, NJ: Wiley, 2015). 14 “Cybersecurity,” Merriam-Webster, accessed June 24, 2020, https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/cybersecurity. 46 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 developments of IT infrastructure, computer networking and software systems in maritime industry, there are various cyber security challenges, which emerged in due course of time. Within the context of maritime industry and maritime infrastructure, cyber security may be taken as the safeguarding of electronic networks, communication systems, softwares control algorithms, users, unauthorized access, damage, manipulation, and underlying data within the maritime infrastructure from various cyberattacks.15 The cyber threats to the maritime industry are complex and researchers have identified various vulnerabilities with respect to the industry. The criminals are not only realizing the potential of the value of cargo, but they have already started trying ‘blended attacks’; which can be launched on various occasions and from different locations in which cargo can be held as ransom. The known cyber vulnerabilities are likely to be targeted in near future attacks.16 In past, non-traditional security threats like smuggling, piracy, and human trafficking were common risks and physical defense was all understood. On the contrary, cyber attack at ships is not well understood thus, less countermeasures were taken. Such maritime cyberattacks result in theft of information, business disruption and damage to the reputation, environment and goods etc.17 The maritime industry is vulnerable to cyberattacks due to lack of encryption, standardized training, sheer cost of defending IT infrastructure, awareness of cyber security, and industry-wide smugness about cybersecurity. Most of the navigation systems, such as Automatic Identification System (AIS) and Global Positioning System (GPS) are neither authenticated nor encrypted, making it a soft target for malicious actors in cyber space. Merely spoofing or jamming of these two systems may cause collision of two ships leading to the closing down shipping channel for days or even weeks.

The Volume of Maritime Cybersecurity Industry Maritime operations are increasingly relying on information and Communication Technology (ICT) to optimize its services due to its cost effectiveness. As there are various components used by different actors involved the supply chain process of maritime activities, these systems become vulnerable to cyberattacks. Some of the systems are used by general public, for instance the port community system to track and book

15 Alexis Garcia-Perez and et al., "Towards Cyber Security Readiness in the Maritime Industry." 16 Ibid. 17 Kimberly Tam and Jones D Kevin, “Maritime Cybersecurity Policy: The Scope and Impact of Evolving Technology on International Shipping,” Journal of Cyber Policy 3, no. 2 (2018): 147-164. Maritime Cybersecurity 47

shipments.18 On the other hand, a few components are used by port operators, such as Terminal Operating System (TOS) for controlling containers movement and storage on ports. Similarly, companies manage, link, and share internal processes with customers and suppliers through back-office management and integration system.19 Cyber attackers take advantage of the complexity of this wide range of softwares. In the world of cyber space, remote access provides new opportunities to be used and misused by cyber attackers. The lack of reliable and non-standardized protocols of data sharing makes it possible for cyber criminals to intervene and manipulate the cyber space. Moreover, the absence of any cybersecurity strategy for maritime industry needs to be made as a matter of priority and urgency. Maritime industry is one of the most vulnerable critical infrastructures to malicious cyberattacks and other forms of cybercrimes. Maritime shipping accounts for 90-94 percent of global trade and any disruption to the sea lanes of communication, maritime chokepoints, and shipping companies would have cascading implications to the supply chain of global economy.20 The economic impacts of cyberattacks on maritime industry including ports, ships, refineries, vessels, terminals, and support systems at harbor are estimated to be in hundred billion dollars.21 Juniper recently issued a report that cybercrime will become the biggest challenge by the start of 2020 costing the maritime industry USD 2.1 trillion.22 All sectors of maritime trade will be affected including ports, logistics, shipping, containers, in such an environment which will require a global action.

Cybersecurity Threat Environment Cybersecurity threat environment is always evolving having various actors becoming smarter, developing their strategies to focus and target exploits in a systematic spearheaded fashion. With the passage of time, adversaries are becoming powerful enough to threaten the integrity, interest, lifestyle, and enhance their own agendas. Cyber threats are already challenging confidence in global organizations, public trust, governance, and norms imposing costs on the global economies.23

18 E. Heymann, B.P Miller, M. J. Alghazzawi, and D. Incertis, “Addressing the Cyber-Security Of Maritime Shipping,”European Transport Conference, https://aetransport.org/past-etc-papers/conference-papers-2016. 19 Ibid. 20 “International Maritime Organization,” United Nations Business, accessed June 24, 2020, https://business.un.org/en/entities/13. 21 Chronis Kapalidis, “Cyber Security Challenges for the Maritime Industry,” Safety4sea, September 12, 2019, https://safety4sea.com/cm-cyber-security- challenges-for-the-maritime-industry/. 22 Ibid. 23 Daniel R Coats. "Statement for the Record, Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community, Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, 48 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

A malicious actor also called a threat actor, is an entity, which is wholly or partially responsible for the incident that has the potential to impact an organization’s security.24 These actors can damage critical systems by exploiting vulnerabilities in cyber system, compromise personal information, steal valuable intellectual property, conceal physical crimes or even collect business intelligence etc. Figure 1: Cyber Security Threat Environment

Major categories of malicious cyber actors as shown in Figure 1 include:

Recreational hackers These are the hackers who try to hack cyber systems just to impress their counterparts with a skilful exploit rather than making money.

Cyber Terrorists Cyber terrorism is the combination of cyberspace and terrorism, which is generally understood as unlawful attacks or threats of attacks

Daniel R. Coats, Director of National Intelligence, May 11, 2017," In United States. Office of the Director of National Intelligence. United States. Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 2017. 24 "Threat Actor," TechTarget. accessed August 26, 2020, https://whatis.techtarget.com/ definition/threat-actor. Maritime Cybersecurity 49

through networks, computers, and the data stored therein. These attacks can be launched to coerce or intimidate the government or people in connection to social or political objectives. Cyber terrorists are the actors who use internet to achieve their goals, which results in threatening a life or damage an infrastructure through intimidation.25

Criminal Entities There are individuals who perform malicious activities on networks or digital systems by the use of technology in maritime domain. These activities include importing drugs, counterfeit goods, and illegal chemical to get profits in the black market and stealing cargo.

State-Actors State-Actors are tasked by the governments to steal sensitive information or disrupt other governments critical infrastructure by cyber means.

Accidental Stumblers They are also known as ‘Script Kiddies’ who actually learn hacking from the online resources and end up penetrating into systems and disrupting sensitive operations unintentionally.

Politically Motivated “Hacktivists” They are tech savvy organized groups who actually undertake cyberattacks against organizations and nations in order to achieve political and social causes. The cyber threat environment is frequently shifting and complex, the fact is that there are various actors always keep on gaining access to or disrupting cyber systems for malicious purposes. Internal Threats There are cyber threats from service provider or an employee as well. Internal people can compromise the maritime system by the carelessness, negligence, human error or by ignorance. They may open up a malicious email, access malicious website, or use infected removable media. This unintentional act may expose classified or sensitive data to cyber threats thus putting the security of an organization at risk.26

25 Jones, Deri, and N. T. A. Monitor. "Semantic attacks-a new wave of cyber- terrorism." Network Security 3 (2002): 13-5. 26 “The Guidelines of Cyber Security Onboard Ships Version 3,” Bimco, Clia, Ics, Intercargo, Intermanager, Intertanko, Iumi, Ocimf and World Shipping Council, https://www.ics-shipping.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ guidelines-on-cyber-security-onboard-ships-min.pdf. 50 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Recent Cyberattacks and Incidents on Maritime Infrastructure There are cyberattacks taking place in maritime industry which target bank records, access logistical software, penetrate into control systems and engines and hack navigation system of a ship. In the year 2017, a survey has shown the volume of cyberattacks on shipping companies to 69 percent.27 The networks and systems used by shipping companies, vessels, flag states, and ports handle classified information, which catches the interest of criminals and can have an attractive target. Table 1 shows some recent cyber incidents and the nature of attacks on the maritime infrastructure. Table 1: Cyber Attacks on Maritime Infrastructure (2011-2020) a. Cyber Attacks/ Incidents on Nature of Attack Country Year Maritime Infrastructure b. The Islamic Republic of Iran Iranian stevedores could Iran 2011 Shipping Lines (IRISL) not count containers, became the victim of cyber- stored pier-side or placed attack on ships without manually verifying all twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). c. Saudi Aramco Oil and Gas An employee mistakenly Saudi 2012 Operator opened a phishing email Arabia which had an infected link. d. Ghost Shipping Cyber experts to infiltrate Belgium 2013 computer networks which were responsible to manage what’s inside each container at the port of Antwerp. e. Ice Fog Advanced Persistent South 2013 Threats (APTs) were Korean and launched on South Japan Korean and Japanese assets. f. Vessel GPS GPS was hacked of South Korea 2016 Korean vessel, resultantly provided false information. g. Cyber Attack on Maersk Ransomware attacks Maersk 2017 were reported on Dutch worldwide

27 David Silgado Miranda, “Cyberattacks: A Digital Threat Reality Affecting the Maritime Industry,” World Maritime University Dissertations, April 4, 2018, https://commons.wmu.se/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1662&context=all_dis sertations. Maritime Cybersecurity 51

maritime shipping company. h. Long Beach Terminal of A ransomware attack was USA 2018 Cosco launched against Cosco Shipping at the port of Long Beach Terminal i. US Coast Guard Rescues a A cyber attack was USA 2019 Shipping Vessel from Cyber launched against a vessel Attack bound to New York and Coast Guard rescued that. j. Global Logistics Operator A ransomware attack was Australia 2020 Toll Group has been Subject launched against global to Cyber Attack logistics operator Toll Group Source: Compiled by the author. Cyberattacks on the Maritime Assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran – 2011 Shipping has been the major pillar of Iranian’s economy to make it alive during the times of multilateral sanctions by the International community. In August 2011, an Iranian state-owned shipping organization named the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL) became the victim of cyber-attack.28 The founder of Cyber Keel, Lars Jenson stated, “the cyber attack almost damaged data related to cargo number, loading, date and place, and rates, which resulted in huge financial loss.”29 According to the IRISL, the general shipping information and cargo information was taken by the hackers. Resultantly, it became nearly impossible for Iranian stevedores to count those containers, which were stored pier-side or placed on ships without manually verifying all twenty- foot equivalent units (TEUs). Though there is no information on how long time it took to restore, but the loss to IRISL was considerable. Cyberattack on Saudi Oil and Gas Company Aramco - 2012 The Saudi’s largest oil and gas operator named ARAMCO was hit by a cyberattack. The company’s employee mistakenly opened a phishing email which contained an infected link. This resulted in corruption of files, and disconnection of phone calls. Almost 35,000 computers were infected and 3 quarters of data was removed. On top of that, the oil company could

28 “Iran's Offshore Platforms Become Target of Recent Cyber Attacks,” The Maritime Executive, October, 2012, https://www.maritime-executive.com/ article/iran-s-offshore-platforms-become-target-of-recent-cyber-attacks 29 “Maritime Cyber-Risks Virtual Pirates at Large on the Cyber Seas,” CyberKeel, October 15, 2014, Cophenhagen, Denmark, 6, https://maritimecyprus.files. wordpress.com/2015/06/maritime-cyber-risks.pdf 52 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 not perform its regular functions for 17 days.30 It took ARAMCO 5 months to recover from the loss and resume its day-to-day operations. Ghost Shipping / Port of Antwerp – 2013 During the year 2011 and 2013, Drug traffickers in Dutch hired cyber experts to infiltrate computer networks, which were responsible to manage what’s inside each container at the port of Antwerp. This way, they managed to hide cocaine in the containers and got them release to the destination without the knowledge of port authorities.31 Ice Fog – South Korean and Japanese Assets Incident – 2013 Kaspersky Labs, an Internet security company, released proofs of consistent cyberattacks of phishing on South Korean and Japanese assets in 2013.32 The targeted institutions included military, telecom, media houses, government, and shipbuilding groups. The most lethal cyberattack is known as advanced persistent threats (APTs). Vessels GPS in Korea – 2016 South Korean vessel suffered a cyberattack in April 2016 in which navigational system was jammed. The GPS was hacked by hackers; some signals were dead, and some others were providing false information. The GPS had not exhibited correct information, and eventually the ship was returned to the port. This can become a serious navigational fault, if it happens in poor weather condition, vessel traffic area or having inadequate visibility.33 Port Operations of A.P. Moller-Maersk - 2017 The Dutch maritime shipping company ‘Maersk’ was hit by cyberattack in 2017. This cyberattack was the one which raised serious cyber vulnerabilities of maritime industry. The company’s loss was estimated to be around $300 million and they continued their operations

30 Jose Pagliery, "The Inside Story of the Biggest Hack in History," CNN Money, August 5, 2015, https://money.cnn.com/2015/08/05/technology/aramco- hack/ 31 Joseph Direnzo, Dana A. Goward, and Fred S. Roberts, “The Little-Known Challenge of Maritime Cyber Security,” 6th International Conference on Information, Intelligence, Systems and Applications (IISA), 2015, https://doi.org/10.1109/iisa.2015.7388071. 32 “The ‘Icefog’ Apt: A Tale Of Cloak And Three Daggers,” Kaspersky Media, https://media.kaspersky.com/en/icefog-apt-threat.pdf, last accessed June 25, 2020. 33 “Cyber Security Fleet Protection Digital Ship Singapore March 2018,” OSM Maritime Group, 2018, https://static1.squarespace.com/static/ 57a8878837c58153c1897c2c/t/5ab3b85f88251b5549a07357/1521727638 547/8PeterSchellenberger_OSM_APM18.pdf Maritime Cybersecurity 53

without IT for many days till the resume of operational activities.34 Maersk had to close down its activities from several ports across the globe reducing the volume by 25 percent. In order to resume its services, the organization had replaced its 45000 computers, 4,000 servers and installed 2500 new applications. Long Beach Terminal of Cosco - 2018 In July 2018, Cosco Long Beach Terminal, which was associated with Cosco Shipping was affected by a ransomware cyberattack. Though, the cyberattack could not harm the company’s daily operations, but the company decided to close down its connections with external regions. Later, the company sent letter to every client in order to clarify the incident.35 US Coast Guard Rescues a Shipping Vessel from Cyber Attack - 2019 In February 2019, the US Coast Guard received a message from a large ship bound for New York that the vessel was facing an alarming cyberattack impacting their shipboard network.” An incident response team led by the Coast Guard investigated the matter and found that ship system was affected by the malware and it has significantly degraded the functionality of the vessel. Fortunately, the imperative systems for the control of vessel remained unimpeded.36 Global Logistics Operator Toll Group had been Subject to a Cyber Attack - 2020 Global logistics operator Toll Group has reported to be under cyberattack across its sea and land operations on 03 February 2020. The company had closed down its number of systems at various sites in order to respond the attack. As a consequence, majority of the customers were experiencing disruption or delays while the company was trying to resume its operations. The attack later on was identified as Mailto ransomware or

34 Jonathan Saul, "Global Shipping Feels Fallout from Maersk Cyber Attack," Reuters, June 29, 2017, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cyber-attack- maersk-idUSKBN19K2LE 35 Michael Juliano, "Cosco's Long Beach Terminal Hit by Cyber-attack," Tradewinds - Global Shipping News, July 25, 2018. https://www.tradewindsnews.com/casualties/1541843/coscos-long-beach- terminal-hit-by-cyber-attack 36 James Rundle, “U.S. Coast Guard Warns Shipping Industry on Cybersecurity,” The Wall Street Journal, July 11, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s- coast-guard-warns-shipping-industry-on-cybersecurity-11562837402. 54 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Netwalker, which is a new malware first time reported in October 2019.37 The above-mentioned incidents were just few examples of cyberattacks occurred in the maritime industry. However, there are many more cyber incidents, which don’t get reported due to the fear of loss of reputation. Interestingly, maritime industry was shaken by the cyberattack on Maersk shipping lines in 2017 and indeed it was the time when maritime sector has started realization that cyber threats are real and they can create serious damages to the industry.

Cyber Threats to Maritime Industry during COVID-19 Since the outbreak of the covid-19, the global maritime transport industry is performing a significant role in the smooth dissemination and relay of goods across the globe. According to United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) statistics, around 80 percent of the global trade is sent by commercial ships that moves the world’s energy, food, and raw materials along with all manufactured components and goods.38 It also includes medical supplies, which are in demand worldwide and without which the prevailing situation cannot be controlled. In this context, the maritime industry, call to the government for keeping maritime trade moving by allowing commercial ships to ports globally and changing crew of ships worldwide is a significant aspect, which cannot be ruled out. In the global crisis, it is imperative to keep supply chain consistent and to allow maritime trade and trans-border transport to continue.39 Another important aspect is the provision of food to landlocked countries, which need unhindered access to food and medical supplies through neighbouring state’s seaports. Restrictions on trade may interrupt and disrupt businesses and can have negative ramifications on global economy. The recent virtual G20 Leaders Summit on the COVID-19, the state leaders should give heed to the maritime industry call to keep maritime trade moving. The backlash to global economy is yet to be ascertained, as the pandemic is called ‘black swan’ due to the magnified impact it brings to the businesses worldwide and halting the supply chain industry.40

37 Zoe Reynolds, “Toll Group Shuts Down IT Systems after Cyber Attack,” SafetyatSea, February 6, 2020, https://safetyatsea.net/news/2020/toll- group-shuts-down-it-systems-after-cyber-attack/ 38 Mukhisa Kituyi, “Coronavirus: Let’s Keep Ships Moving, Ports Open and Cross- Border Trade Flowing,” United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), March 25, 2020, https://unctad.org/news/coronavirus-lets-keep- ships-moving-ports-open-and-cross-border-trade-flowing 39 Ibid. 40 Benjamin Hilliburton, “COVID-19 is a Black Swan,” Forbes, March 19, 2020,https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesbooksauthors/2020/03/19/covi d-19-is-a-black-swan/#211c1ea67b4b. Maritime Cybersecurity 55

In this scenario, any cyberattack leading to the short term suspension or long term disruption to any operational technological activity will have a devastating impact on the maritime industry. According to a survey conducted by the Business Performance Innovation (BPI Network) in partnership with Navis stated that global maritime industry is seriously concerned about the cyber security.41 Same concern is being observed during the pandemic, as cyber hackers have started targeting maritime industry, as reported by the cyber consultants worldwide. There are ships, which are receiving malicious emails targeting maritime sector with phishing links or malwares in order to compromise the vessel or parent organization. The maritime organizations have come under sophisticated cyberattacks where charity and International Seafarers’ welfare networks are becoming the targets by cyber hackers. An email with the title ‘Corona virus / Affected Vessel to Avoid’ and contains list of vessels with infected crew was circulated amongst maritime industry amidst the Corona-virus.42 There is another email promising to reveal names of infected crew members onboard specific vessels lured its readers to fill the form attached and send them back. Another incident reported about a malicious email impersonating World Health Organisation (WHO) Project Manager which was found suspicious as the language was full of grammatical errors, phrasing issues, and capitalization errors throughout.43 The Corona virus being the only topic today evoke emotional response causing the recipient to open the spoofed message without getting cautious. Taking the lead from this, building a scenario with sophisticated and well-planned cyberattacks on maritime industry, cyber criminals can leverage the global crisis and demand million dollars as a ransom.

Cyber Security Counter Measures in Maritime Industry In last few years, the maritime industry has taken important steps regarding devising recommendations and guidelines to address the cybersecurity threats. However, with continued call for advanced technological equipment and systems used in day-to-day shipping

41 “Shipping Industry Optimistic But Concerned About Trade, Cyber Threats,” Material Handling & Logistics, November 19, 2018, https://www.mhlnews.com/transportation- distribution/article/22055334/shipping-industry-optimistic-but-concerned- about-trade-cyber-threats. 42 Sam Chambers, “Weekly Report Details Growing Number of Shipping Companies Targeted by Malware Attacks,” Splash Tech, March 25, 2020, https://splash247.com/weekly-report-details-growing-number-of-shipping- companies-targeted-by-malware-attacks/ 43 Ibid. 56 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 activities, a dire need is required for government and industry to develop and implement strong and robust security measures, which can provide risk-based prevention, mitigation and recovery stages in cybersecurity field. In this regard, a multifaced approach would consist of cybersecurity assessment, cybersecurity enhancement, penetration testing, verification of any new builds (software or hardware), assessment of onboard vessel’s cybersecurity, ISO/IEC 27001 Maritime training and compliance along with profiled training of all personnel. By the time, operational technology (OT) and information technology (IT) have been coupled together, the frequency to internet has been increased as well. It further brings greater cyber risks to ships not only from unauthorized access or malicious attacks but also from personnel accessing systems onboard ships. In 2017, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) initiated and adopted resolution MSC.428(98) on Maritime Cyber Risk Management in Safety Management System (SMS). According to the resolution, cyber risk management should be taken into consideration an approved SMS with the functional requirements and objectives of the ISM code. The administrators are also encouraged to address cyber risks in SMS not later than the first annual verification of the company’s Document of Compliance after January 1, 2021.44 The resolution discusses various company-ship specific approaches of cyber risk management but it is regulated under relevant national, international and flag state regulations. The same year, IMO also came up with guidelines providing recommendations on cyber risks management to ensure ships are safe from emerging cyber risks and vulnerabilities. As per guidelines, senior management is responsible for the implementation of cyber risk management, as they should harbor the cyber culture into all levels and departments of any organization. Like the IMO guidelines, the US National Institute of Standards & Technology (NIST) made a Cybersecurity Framework (CSF), which provides instruction to find out and sort out cyber related threats for the systems and applications.45 The prioritized, flexible, and cost-effective framework approach serves as the solid guidelines for organizations to handle cyber issues while safeguarding civil liberties, business and individual practices confidentially. In 2019, on the basis of senior management commitment to ensure cyber risk management, the Guidelines on Cyber Security Onboard Ships

44 “The Guidelines of Cyber Security Onboard Ship,” BIMCO Bulletin, December 2020, https://www.bimco.org/about-us-and-our-members/publications/ bimco-bulletin. 45 “Framework for Improving Critical Infrastructure Cybersecurity, Version 1.0,” National Institute of Standards and Technology, February 12, 2014, http://www.nist.gov/cyberframework/upload/cybersecurity-framework- 021214.pdf Maritime Cybersecurity 57

have been formulated by the BIMCO in consultation with CLIA, ICS, INTERCARGO, Inter Manager, INTERTANKO, IUMI, OCIMF and WSC. These guidelines are aligned with IMO resolution and guidelines and offer various new recommendations on maritime cyber safety and cyber security.46 This document aimed at providing guidance to ship owners and operators on actions and procedures to maintain the cyber security of cyber systems in the organization and onboard ships. These guidelines are third edition in the last many years thus reflecting the dynamic nature of cyber risks and challenging to the maritime sector. The difference between previous guidelines and new one lies in multiple domains, such as operational technology and supply chain risks. The cyber risk associated with ships are directly linked with information technology and operational technology. For instance, malfunctioning IT system may cause a delay in clearance or ships’ loading but inoperative OT can cause real risk to the ship, people or the marine environment. Most often, the jobs at ship may be focused on protecting operational systems as compared to protecting data. If a software controlling engine is hit by a cyberattack with malware, it can lead to disastrous situations.47 Another aspect has been covered in the guidelines was the number of cyber incidents to demonstrate the real-world situations, faced by operators and ship owners, though the examples have been anonymized. The supply chain risks were also highlighted in the guidelines highlighting the risks associated with malware infecting the systems of ship through external parties linked with ships and their systems. For example, ships are not just standing in the middle of ocean, it has to have close connections to security systems in the shippers’, companies’ and agents’ offices, which make it more vulnerable in the cyber domain. The maritime industry is to join hands with governments across the globe and take serious and specified measures to mitigate cyber threats especially in the midst of any natural disaster or pandemic. There is a dire need to train crew members of all levels to understand and realize the existence of cyber-attacks. They should be given adequate practical guidance on how to look for potential malware or phishing attempt. The maritime industry should also use direct communication in order to verify emails from the original originator.

46 Aron Soerensen, “Safety at Sea and BIMCO publish Cyber Security,” BIMCO Bulletin, September 19, 2019, https://www.bimco.org/news/priority- news/20190916-safety-at-sea-and-bimco-publish-cyber-security-white- paper 47 Rasmus N Jorgensen, “Industry Publishes Improved Cyber Guidelines,” BIMCO Bulletin, December 7, 2018, https://www.bimco.org/news/priority- news/20181207-industry-publishes-improved-cyber-guidelines. 58 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Conclusion In this digital age of maritime industry, information, and communication technologies play an important role through increased connectivity of networks and systems. The industry has been transformed from traditional concepts into new technologies having advanced and sophisticated systems. The modern shipping industry now facilitates routine operations, but it also becomes vulnerable to different type of cyberattacks. Organizations actually invest in cyber technology and systems but not on the training of staff. Given this, most cyber-attack incidents are associated with the human factor making the state of affairs completely paradoxical. Either we take the example of 2011 Stuxnet in Iran or Saudi Aramco cyberattack in 2012, human error and incompetency prevail in these major cyber security attacks. This scenario is mostly prevalent in developing countries or LDCs where highest cyber commitment is still lacking behind; resultantly they fall to various malicious viruses leading to cyberattacks. Since, the maritime sector is evolving; the demonstration of new technologies makes it significant to work for a longer-term cybersecurity framework and plans. This requirement is also reflected in the IMO and United Nations’ agenda in order to achieve the sustainable development goals. Since cybersecurity has emerged as a strong threat to the maritime industry, it has become mandatory for all stakeholders to collaborate and participate to address this global threat. The participation of all maritime sectors is also important to contribute in creating optimal operational conditions, implementing national regulations, enforcing and contributing to the prosperity and stability of maritime industry. This will not only help in ensuring the maritime sector plays its role, but also better develop future working conditions for new generations. For the same reason, it becomes inevitable that vessels, shipping companies, ports and harbor facilities and regulatory organizations keep working on the enhancement of cybersecurity measures in order to protect critical infrastructure and key resources from cyber threats. Though the maritime industry is becoming aware of cyber incidents and adapting cyber risks mitigation trainings, however, there is strong need not to let go of multiple unnoticed and unregulated cyber incidents.

CPEC & Deforestation in Pakistan 59

DEFORESTATION IN PAKISTAN: CPEC AN AUXILIARY EXACERBATION

Shaista Tabassum* Abstract Deforestation is one of the primary reasons for environmental degradation in the World. Pakistan is among the ones most exposed to global climatic changes resulting primarily due to unchecked and uncontrolled deforestation. Though CPEC, and its associated projects with China promise a positive addition to the economic development of Pakistan, the environmental aspect of the project has been overlooked. It is a three tier project aimed to construct roads and highways on the Western, Eastern and Central routes. These routes are being (and are to be) developed by eradicating vast lands of cultivated farms, harvest fields and forests. Thus Pakistan’s already deteriorating environment would be further stressed by massive deforestation occurring as CPEC progresses. Reforestation is the best possible alternative to deal with the emerging challenges.

Keywords: Climate Change, Deforestation, CPEC Routes, Pollution, Reforestation, Forest Roads

Introduction he earth’s climate is undergoing continuous changes causing serious weather fluctuations. These alterations are not simply limited to the T changes in temperature and in the rainfall but also a number of new areas including the worst effects on quality of human life. Environmental experts outline a number of causes for the global climatic changes. One of the most significant is the colossal deforestation that has removed massive mountainous topographies having a prominent part in global climate change. Although it is generally assumed that one of the major reasons of global warming is the burning of fossil fuels but still the major impact that massive deforestation has in reinforcing greenhouse effect can’t be ignored.1

* Professor, Department of International Relations, University of Karachi, Karachi. Email: [email protected]. 1 Christopher Mathews, “Deforestation Causes Global Warming,” Food and Culture Organisation (FAO) Newsroom, September 4, 2006, http://www.fao.org/newsroom/en/ news/2006/ 1000385/index.html. 60 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

The South Asian region is one of the most vulnerable to the environmental changes. Because of the global climate change there is a continuous rise in global temperature. In several parts of South Asia the overall annual temperature has multiplied notably in the last few decades. For example, in the Western part of Afghanistan and southern part of Pakistan, from 1950-2010 there was a remarkable rise in the temperatures, approximately by 1.0°C to 3.0°C. A similar increase of around 1.0 to 1.5 degree was also recorded during this period in other parts of South Asia including the Southeast India, the western Sri Lanka, northern Pakistan, and eastern Nepal.2 Pakistan is more exposed to climate change than any other regional state due to its diverse ecosystem having coastline, arid zones, deserts, glaciers and mountains along with a continuously growing population and a persistently poor planning and mismanagement. Owing to climate change there is a steady temperature rise in Pakistan almost every year especially during summers.3 Previously, during 2009-2010 Pakistan was on 29th position on the Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) devised by Maple Croft, but moved to 16th position in 2010-2011 which meant that Pakistan has become more exposed and vulnerable to climate-related changes.4 In 2016, Pakistan moved to 7th position on the climate risk index.5 Moreover, due to these sudden climate-change driven changes, Pakistan has suffered from massive floods in the last five years and earthquakes have been hitting different parts of the country almost annually. CPEC – a multibillion dollar project is widely believed to be a game-changer for Pakistan; it is expected to usher into a new era of economic development for the country. The project was initially divided in to three stages. At the first stage, a road network or highway will connect Kashghar and Gawadar, whereas in the second phase rail network

2 Muthukumara Mani, Sushenjit Bandyopadhyay, Shun Chonabayashi, Anil Markandya, and Thomas Mosier, “South Asia’s Hotspots: The Impact of Temperature and Precipitation Changes on Living Standards,” World Bank Group, (Washington D.C, January 2018), 3. 3 “Pakistan Sets April World Temperature Record,” Aljazeera, May3, 2018, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/05/pakistan-sets-april-world- temperature-record-180503084609942.html last accessed on 27 January 2021. 4 “Climate Change Disasters in Pakistan and its Consequences,” The News, October 8, 2011, https://www.thenews.com.pk/ archive/print/325400- climate-change-disasters-in-pakistan-and-its-consequences. 5 David Eckstein, Vera Künzel, and Laura Schäfer, Global Climate index 2018 (Briefing paper), Germanwatch, Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development, (Office Bonn, German Watch e.V, November 2017):13, https://germanwatch.org/sites/germanwatch.org/files/publication/20432.p df. CPEC & Deforestation in Pakistan 61 connection will be established, and in the final stage, the route will be linked via an energy pipeline; the setting up of an oil refinery at Gwadar is also proposed. Moreover a cargo terminal, to facilitate logistics and transport is also a part of the proposed projects. For all such proposed roads and highway routes massive cutting down of trees, farms and cultivated lands will be needed. This paper is an attempt to analyze the potential deforestation that may occur owing to the proposed CPEC highways and railway projects, and the impacts it will have on already deteriorating environmental profile of Pakistan. Towards the end, the article emphasizes the need of reforestation initiative to be run in parallel to the development projects. The primary sources for the collection of data include reports of the Pakistan Economic Survey, forestry department of the government of Punjab, the Pakistan’s official CPEC website, and finally, the Google Earth free source of satellite images, used for focusing on the motorway routes and the adjacent localities to locate green and cultivated areas. The secondary sources include items from newspapers, research articles and books on the subject.

Deforestation in Pakistan The forests are defined as the “lands of more than 0.5 hectares, with a tree canopy cover of more than 10 percent, which are not primarily under agricultural or urban land use. Forests are determined both by the presence of trees and the absence of other predominant land uses. The trees should be able to reach a minimum height of 5 meters in situ”.6 Indiscriminate cutting down of trees and shrubs is common among villagers and timber mafia; it is a known global practice - thus Deforestation is an international issue. In technical terms the process of deforestation is defined as the elimination of large standing trees as a result of which the land affected will thereafter be converted to a non- forest use. For example the land cleared by deforestation could be used for farms, or for urban use, or for ranches. It is important to mention here that most of the deforestation cases have occurred in the tropical rainforests areas. In Pakistan, a very large area of dense forest was devastated by unchecked deforestation, reducing it to just 5.1 percent of the land area, nearly 4.5 m.ha. The forest covered area in Pakistan is far lower than the internationally maintained standard which is at least 25 percent. Moreover efforts at forestation especially in the hilly areas are almost

6 “On Definition of Forest and Forest Change,” Food and Culture Organisation (FAO), Forest Resource Assesment Program Working Paper #1, 2020,http://www.fao.org/3/ad665e/ad665e06.htm#TopOfPage, last accessed on 25 January 2021. 62 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 negligible;7 instead it is in reverse direction. In this context the UNDP report for the year 2020 is alarming, which declares that there is a decline in the forest cover area of Pakistan which is less than 5 percent of the total land area; it continues at the rate of 1.5 percent every year.8 There are several reasons for the decline in forest covered area in Pakistan. It was once a wood sufficient country now facing a constant decline in wood production. This was largely due to the unavailability of electricity and dearth of renewable energy sources, especially gas and coal; in many hilly areas wood is used as the only easily accessible source of energy for communities. Other reasons are extreme poverty, and non- existence of proper control mechanisms because of which wood cutting continued without check. It is said that almost 90 percent of the people in the rural mountainous areas used wood for household - in winter for heating and in ordinary days for cooking. The low literacy rate along with poverty and underdeveloped status of people, with limited means of communications and transportation has multiplied the problem. Moreover, the demand for wood is much higher in proportion than its actual production. There is a big difference in the consumption and production of wood and this is eventually the real reason of deforestation in Pakistan. Despite of government measures, calling the cutting of the trees as illegal, there is a powerful timber mafia of rich people involved in the illegal cutting and selling of woods.9 The utmost victims of this tragedy were the conifer forests in the upper Punjab and the lower Himalayan region (the Galiyat, Murree and Patriata, including Azad Kashmir and Kaghan-Naran Valley). These forests were the natural barrier in interrupting the heavy humid monsoon approaching from the eastern side. These forests worked as a natural buffer and it was also interconnected with rainfall in the adjacent areas of Muzaffarabad, Balakot and Abbottabad, which ultimately are also essential for guaranteeing the continuous flow in the two life lines of Pakistan agriculture, the river Indus and Jhelum. Since forests act as a local humidity machine they are vital in synchronizing the water cycle with the climatic changes in the region. The conifer forests of this area actively

7 Naila Nazir, and Salman Ahmed, “Forest Land Conversion Dynamics: A Case of Pakistan,” Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(1) (February, 2018): 6, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/ 311243748_Forest_land_conversion_dynamics_a_case_of_Pakistan. 8 “Sustainable Forest Management to Secure Multiple Benefits in Pakistan’s High Conservation Area,” United Nations Development Program, https://www.pk.undp.org/content/pakistan/en/home/projects/sustainable- forest-management.html, last accessed on 25 January 2021. 9 Asif Saeed, “The Underlying Causes of Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Pakistan,” (Paper, XII World Forestry Congress, Quebec City, 2003), http://www.fao.org/docrep/article/wfc/xii/0983-b1.htm. CPEC & Deforestation in Pakistan 63 absorbed the atmospheric carbon dioxide which is believed to be responsible for warming of environment.10

The CPEC-Related Challenges A more serious challenge to environment would be posed when heavy vehicle movement of large number of containers through Karakorum highway will begin. At present China’s annual containers movement is approximately 225 billion from one part of world to other. Out of this, around 30 percent (70 Million containers) is with European nations and around 6 percent with Africa. Even if Pakistan gets 10 percent share of container flow to European nations, it would be around 70,000 containers annually,11 which means approximately 190 containers daily would be passing through the CPEC route. In order to construct the CPEC roads and highways tracks, colossal number of trees will be eliminated to clear the land. A closer look at the map of Punjab map shows that these highways are passing through cultivated farms and forest areas of the province which is the hub of cultivation activity in Punjab; same is the case with KPK. This entire route of the corridor is also home to diverse wild life. It must be noted here that the wild life, forests, and farms are the best source of controlling pollution, which is most likely to increase when the CPEC highways and rail tracks would actually become operational. Moreover, elimination of wild life and cutting down of trees will create number of health problems like smog, soil erosion and floods, as well as a scarcity of water resources.12 Although few studies focusing on existing routes are available, but these cannot be generalized for all the CPEC routes as certain routes, especially in Balochistan province are passing through barren and uncultivated lands. At the same time these studies are important and relatable to areas which are similar in habitat and climate. Here it must be pointed out that more severe effects on climate are expected when heavy traffic starts moving on these motorways and highways. There were three routes initially decided for the economic corridor. One is the Western route originating from Gwadar, that will pass through Turbat, Panjgur, Naag, Basima, Sohrab, Kalat, Quetta, Qila Saifullah, Zhob Dera Ismail Khan, Mianwali, Hasanabdal, and reach Islamabad. The second one is the Central

10 Arshad Abbasi, “Deforestation and Drought,” The News, May 25, 2006, https://www.thenews.com.pk/archive/print/7697-deforestation-and- drought 11 M. Tahir Masood, M. Farooq, and Syed Bashir Hussain, “Pakistan’s Potential as a Transit Trade Corridor and Transportation Challenges,” Pakistan Business Review (April 2016): 279. 12 Waqar Khan, “CPEC: An Environmental Disaster,” Global Village Space, January 1, 2018, https://www.globalvillagespace.com/cpec-an-environmental- disaster/. 64 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 route that will originate from Gwadar, Quetta, and reach Dera Ismail Khan via Basima, Khuzdar, Sukkar, Rajanpur, Liya, Muzaffargarh, Bhakkar, Dera Ismail Khan. The proposed Eastern route will include Gwadar, Basima, Khuzdar, Sukkar, Rahim Yar Khan, Bhawalpur, Multan, Lahore/Faisalabad, Islamabad, and Mansehra”.13 It was decided that all the three routes will be developed and made operational for traffic. Punjab already has a modern highway setup but as part of the CPEC road networking it was decided that some existing roads will be extended or widened in addition to constructing new roads and highways. The routes are designed to use the roads and motorways already constructed either by extension or expansion. Following is a list of Motorways that have to be managed by the National Highway authority: M-1 - from Islamabad to Peshawar 154 Km long. M-2 - from Lahore to Islamabad - 367 km long. M-3 - from Pindi Bhattian to Faisalabad - 53 km long. M-4 - planned from Faisalabad to Multan with a total length of 243 km. M-5 - planned from Multan to D G Khan with a total length of 84 km. M-6 - planned from D G Khan to Kakkar with total length of 467 km. M-7 - planned from Kakkar to Karachi with a total length of 280 km. M-8 - planned from Gawadar to Ratodero with a total length of 859 km. M-9 - planned from Karachi to Hyderabad with the length of 136 km.14 As far as the Western route is concerned it is the very first route agreed upon and marked. Major portion of the proposed project is almost complete. It is a 1,153 km-long route consisting of four parts. The first is the 280km-long Brahma Bahtar-Yarik Motorway or the Hakla–DI Khan 4-tract Motorway, that starts from Hakla interchange on M1 and ends up at Yarik, DI Khan. The second part comprises the already existing N-50 National Highway between DI Khan and Quetta that passes through Zhob, and is being upgraded under the Asian Development Bank’s National Highway Development Sector Investment Program. The third part includes 470 kms of upgrades to N-25 highway from Sorab to Hoshab near Turbat. The fourth and the last part is M-8 motorway between Hoshab and Gwadar that has also been built. The under- construction part of M-8 will continue all the way to Khuzdar creating an alternative route.15 Although the initial part of Western route passes

13 “Ahsan Reveals Three Routes of the Corridor,” Dawn, May 15, 2015, https://www.dawn.com/news/1182074. 14 Pakistan Road Network, Logistics Capacity Assessment, http://dlca.logcluster.org/display/public/DLCA/2.3+Pakistan+Road+Networ k;jsessionid=FF1E973BE0583D42B15E228833B59ADE, last accessed on 11 March 2020. 15 Hassan Khawar, “CPEC: Western Route and Balochistan,” The Express Tribune, March 16, 2018, https://tribune.com.pk/story/1658041/6-cpec-western- route-balochistan. CPEC & Deforestation in Pakistan 65 through Balochistan but it will not be crossing the green zones, forests or agricultural locality. Thus here the deforestation might not be an immediate challenge, but even then, the environmental pollution would definitely increase with the movement of large number of heavy vehicles. This pollution would ultimately condense the naked eye visibility and would further dangle floating elements if unremitting accumulation continues - this is dangerous for human life as the dust emissions are injurious to human health. Moreover, toxic chemical and construction material added to the roads like brake and oil leakages, motor oil and asbestos etc. are equally harmful for living creatures. Many chemicals, especially is case of frequently used roads, reach to the soil and atmosphere thus intoxicating the air in the surrounding areas. Unlike the western route, the eastern and the central routes are passing through Punjab and KPK, which both have either dense forest cover or rich cultivated lands. For example, a portion of M2 to a part of M7 passes through Punjab, which is the hub of agricultural activity of Pakistan. Almost every part of the province is under cultivation. Punjab’s recorded forested area is 1.66 million acres (excluding Linear Plantations), which constitutes 3.26 percent of the total area of the province.16 It is important to mention here that assessments about the location of roads, its edifice, retaining, and mothballing are all interrelated and multifaceted since these involve a number of challenges. It is said that the roads constructed in the forests have significant impact on the surroundings, as it is a breach in the nature’s system. A road in or through a forest is constructed by number of alterations including changes in the microclimate, soil erosions and even by removing the top soils. Moreover any road in a forest cannot be created without cutting large number of trees and bushes or without large-scale soil removal. It is estimated that nearly 30 percent of the landscape area in any forest land is directly or indirectly disturbed by any road construction. Not only that, the other living beings like animals are also effected due to road building, not mentioning here that a large number of wild animals are the victims of heavy traffic on the roads.17

16 The major forest are irrigated plantations (comprises 25.6%), Riverain Forests (10.6%), Scrub Forest (40.7%), Range lands (12.2%), Desert (2.3%), and Coniferous forests (6.8%) and Mix Forest (Coniferous/Scrub) (1.8% )’;”Atlas, Forest types R.M Circle 2014, GIS Lab: Development of Working Plan Circle Punjab Forest Department, Govt. of Punjab,” Punjab Forest Department , https://fwf.punjab.gov.pk/system/files/RM%20Circle%20Part%201.pdf, last accessed on 27 January 2021. 17 “Forest Roads: A Synthesis of Scientific Information,” United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, General Technical Report PNW-GTR-509, May 2001, 1-5, https://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/pubs/gtr509.pdf. 66 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

The M3 route (Faisalabad to Pindi Bhattiyan) passes through the area that consists almost 90 percent of agricultural land and is mostly cultivated. The land is irrigated by canals and tube wells, so there are no natural forest trees; only Acacia, White Poplar, Mulberry, Maqrgosa and Shesham trees are there which are used for fuel and furniture purposes. The vast agricultural activity along the road is facilitated by the availability and abundance of ground water. Sugar cane, wheat, corn and rice are the commonly grown crops here. People are engaged in cultivation mainly for the domestic and commercial consumption as the cultivated land produces a high yield. Vegetables and seasonal fruits are also grown in this area. It is estimated that approximately 5.25 sq.km of agricultural land was lost during the construction of the present M3. Moreover, the vehicle movement caused increase in hydrocarbons, Carbon Mono Oxide, and Sulfur Oxide, with Nitrogen Oxide also present in the air. The increase in chemicals in the atmosphere is damaging not only for the humans but plants and wild animals alike. “Dust settles on leaves and can interfere with pollination and photosynthetic function. If the accumulation is significant, acidification of surface water can interfere with nutrient uptake by roots, thus affecting growth… while NOx, SO2 and ozone can all cause localized death of leaf tissue (leaf necrosis). Finally, plants can absorb toxic pollutants such as lead from the air, making the consumption of these plants hazardous.”18 The M4 Motorway, the extension of M3, starts from the end point of existing Faisalabad-Pindi Bahtian M4 near Sargodha road Faisalabad. It passes through Faisalabad, Tobatek Singh and Khanewal. Most of the land of the road route is agricultural with a small commercial portion.19 Some very important crops like Sugarcane, Fodder, Maize, Rice, Cotton, and Wheat are the major products of this region. Citrus and Guava orchards which are in abundance towards the northeastern side, are ultimately replaced by Mango towards southwestern end. The area is also rich in wood trees like Shisham and Kikar, while other species grown in the area are Eucalypts, semul (Bombax ceiba), Mulberry, Beri and Khajoor, Neem, Ber and Bakain.20 In one of the studies, it was revealed that for the section

18 Zia ur Rehman, “Environmental impact Assessment of Faisalabad-Pindi Bhattian Motorway (M-3),” Masters of Science Thesis, Stockholm: Royal Institute of Technology, 2007, 35-49. 19 “Environmental Impact Assessments (EIA), Project 48402: Faisalabad- Khanewal Motorway - Environmental Impact Assessment,” Asian Development Bank, July 2015, https://www.adb.org/projects/documents/national- motorway-m4-gojra-shorkot-section-faisalabad-khanewal-motorway-jul- 2015-eia. 20 Lamia Islam Khan, “Environmental Assessment of Faisal Abad- Khanewal- Motorway M4,” (Lahore University of Management Sciences, 2014), 56-59, http://121.52.153.178:8080/xmlui/handle/123456789/13716 last accessed on March 11, 2020. CPEC & Deforestation in Pakistan 67

II of the M-4 52619 trees were cut from the agricultural fields on both sides of the motorway. In addition, the most adverse impact of the project was that it took out of production around 4794 acres of agricultural land.21 It is also pertinent to mention that during the period (2013-18) ‘there has been a record increase in construction and extension of motorway and highways throughout the country,22 especially in Punjab. This is of importance since Punjab’s contribution to the overall agricultural production of Pakistan is significant; if and when a vast area is affected due to development projects it would definitely have consequences for the country’s agronomy. Meanwhile, the most immediate impact of this deforestation was felt in both Punjab and KPK - both the provinces have been worse effected by smog in the last four years during winter. Expansive areas in Punjab were wrapped in a thick blanket of smog mainly due to an unrelenting dry bout and the growing levels of air pollution. The two motorways, the M1 and M3 were sometimes completely covered with dense fog. 23 Not only that, ‘the levels of the dangerous particulates known as PM2.5, small enough to penetrate deep into the lungs and enter the bloodstream, had reached 1,077 micrograms per cubic meter, 30 times more than the government’s designated safe limit’.24 This has caused some serious health conditions in Punjab every winter including difficult breathing, eye- stinging and throat choking (especially in urban areas). Due to heavy smog in the urban areas and the resulting lack of visibility, the main highways were closed for traffic. An early contributor to this issue was a closely knitted network of roads and highways constructed in the last decade in Lahore and surroundings by cutting huge number of trees - around 395 trees worth Rs. 23,63,445, were cut down at the Sharqpur Forest Sub- Division. The Supreme Court of Pakistan declared that ‘deforestation is not only a loss for public exchequer but also dangerous for climate change… it is taking toll on the lives of billions of people of the region and the world and is also against the provision of Pakistan Environmental Protection Act, 1997 and therefore, it must be considered a very heinous crime’.25

21 “Environmental Impact Assessment, Project # 48402, 64-66. 22 “Several Road Projects Launched under CPEC,” The News May 3, 2018, https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/311964-several-road-projects- launched-under-cpec/ 23 Sehrish Wasif, “Air Pollution in Punjab is 20 Times the Safe Limit,” Express Tribune, November 7, 2017, https://tribune.com.pk/story/1551724/air- pollution-punjab-20-times-safe-limit/ 24 Mehreen Zahra Malik, “In Lahore, Pakistan, Smog Has Become a ‘Fifth Season’,” New York Times (New York), November 10, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/10/world/asia/lahore-smog- pakistan.html. 25 Terence J. Sigamony, “Deforestation Dangerous for Climate Change,” The Nation, February 18, 2017. 68 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Another giant road project under CPEC is the Karachi–Peshawar Motorway: ‘A 6-lane access controlled Motorway having total length of 1,100 Km. It originates from Karachi through Motorway M-9 (136 Km) up to Hyderabad and from Hyderabad onwards the road follows a virgin alignment for 345 Km up to Sukkur. The Sukkur Multan section, 392 Km long essentially follows the Left Bank of River Indus. The Motorway from Multan to Khanewal and Abdul-Hakeem is designated as M-4 (101 Km)’.26 ‘Karachi ranks 135 out of 140 in the world’s urban livability index. The index is evaluated on the basis of social infrastructure, housing, transportation, walkability, the green planning in the city and also the employment, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (2010). The high levels of dangerous pollutants, such as fine and ultrafine PM27 emitted from highly polluting vehicles (particularly trucks), cause significant health risks to urban populations. Fine PM is well documented to have a clear association with several serious public health effects (for example, significant increase in cardiovascular and pulmonary diseases that may result in death or permanent disability). Nearly 80 percent of premature deaths are being caused by high PM2.5 concentrations annually are in Karachi. Although trucks represent a minor fraction of Pakistan’s vehicle fleet, they are a major source of pollutants of local concern. As the number of registered vehicles increases in Pakistan, so does the level of air pollution in urban areas, particularly in densely populated metropolitan regions such as Karachi. Air pollution in Pakistan’s cities is the worst in the South Asia. The concentrations of PM in Pakistan’s cities are much higher than those experienced in the urban areas of countries like Bhutan, India, and Sri Lanka. In addition, while these countries have adopted a number of measures for reducing urban air pollution, Pakistan has yet to follow suit and is paying the costs of increasingly high outdoor air pollution’.28 CPEC is believed to be a game changer for Pakistan in terms of economic development. But such claims usually fail to factor-in the impacts that such projects might have on non-traditional sectors of security. Environmental challenges are among such issues which are often overshadowed by the drive for benefits. The proposed CPEC routes that pass through KPK spread over to nearly 334.2 kms. The overall forest covered area of the route is around 582,900 ha. Important to mention here is that the

26 “CPEC: China Pakistan Economic Corridor,” Govt. of Pakistan, http://cpec.gov.pk/project-details/29, last accessed on January 26, 2021. 27 PM is particulate matter, PM1 is particulate matter of less than 1 micron and PM2.5 is particulate matter of less than 2.5 microns. 28 Ernesto Sánchez-Triana, Santiago Enriquez, Javaid Afzal, Akiko Nakagawa, and Asif Shuja Khan, “Cleaning Pakistan’ Air: Policy Options to Cost the Outdoor Air Pollution,” World Bank (Washington D.C., 2014)72-74. file:///C:/Users/Shaista/Downloads/CleaningPakistansAirPolicyOptionstoAd dresstheCostofOutdoorAirPollution.pdf, last accessed on January 26, 2021. CPEC & Deforestation in Pakistan 69 cultivable area is almost 2,109,344 ha which will end up being taken over by the CPEC route.29 Table 1: CPEC Route in KPK and the Area Covered Districts Route Route Main Cities Length Kohistan ≈ 134 km Sazin, Barseen, Dasu, Komila, Leo, Pattan, Dasu, Pattan Palas, Dhup, Dubair Shangla ≈ 26.7 km Besham, Shung, Dandai Besham Battagra ≈ 41.5 km Thakot, Chanjal, Peshora, Battagram, Thakot, m Chappargram, Phagora Battagram Mansehra ≈ 59 km Sharkah, Icherrian, Shinkiari, Shinai bala, Shinkiari, Dhodhiyal, Hathimera, Mansehra Mansehra Abbottab ≈ 42 km Mast mera, Sajikot, Abbottabad, Khokar Abbottabad, ad maira, Havelian, Irshad Nagar, Nowshera, Havelian, Bhalder Bhalder Haripur ≈ 31 km Mohri, Shah Maqsood, Chak Shah Haripur Muhammad, South of Haripur and then Kot Najibullah, Khattar Town Source: https://ideas.repec.org/p/ess/wpaper/id12846.html The Karakoram Highway is a successful collaboration project with China, that was completed in 11 years. It links the Northern Areas of Pakistan with the main land: “from Hasan Abdal, the road winds through Haripur, Abbottabad, Mansehra, Batagram, Thakot, Besham, Pattan, Dassu, Sazin, Shatial, Chilas, Gilgit and Hunza, after which it crosses the Khunjerab Pass at an altitude of 4,733 meters, to reach the Chinese frontier”.30 The highway will be sharing the major burden of CPEC logistics. It is estimated that up to 100 trucks a day will pass though this highway after completion.31 The situation of food production in the province is already substandard. At present less than 2 percent of the land is under cultivation while around 1 percent is producing fruits and vegetables and some grain crops. Wheat, barley, potatoes and maize are the major agriculture products of this region. “Approximately 9 percent of the Northern Areas

29 Mahmood A. Khwaja, Sumbul Saeed, and Maham Urooj, “Policy Brief #59: Preliminary Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Study of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) Northern Route Road Construction Activities in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), Pakistan,” January 2018, 9. https://ideas.repec.org/p/ess/wpaper/id12846.html last accessed on January 26, 2021. 30 “Northern Areas: State of Environment and Development,” Government of Pakistan, Northern Areas Administration, International Union for Conservation of Nature Government of Pakistan 2003,https://cmsdata.iucn.org/downloads/nasoed.pdf, last accessed on March 11, 2020. 31 “CPEC and the Environment,” Daily Times, November 9, 2017, https://dailytimes.com.pk/136059/cpec-and-the-environment/ 70 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 are occupied by natural forests and scrub, and 22 percent by rangelands (primarily alpine pasture).32 For the 59.1-kilometre Hasan Abdal to Havelian section of the six-lane E-35 highway, the project has deprived the area of over 2,000 fruit trees and 25,500 non-fruit or forest trees…moreover, the CPEC will rob the green belts from Haripur to Thakot town in Battagram district of 70,000 matured trees including orchards”. 33 Most of the dense and natural forests in this region are located in the south-western part. It is in the “Diamir District, the southern parts of Gilgit District, the Punial area of Ghizar District and a few pockets of Baltistan District (e.g., Basho and Kharmang). The forests (both private and protected) cover some 281,600 hectares. This is equivalent to nearly 4 percent of the Northern Areas”.34 While in ‘Mansehra and the surroundings, 13,784 trees measuring 200,000 cubic feet (cft) have already been cut down from the Oghi and Darband forest areas of Mansehra district, along with different areas in Battagram, Kohistan and Torghar districts. The felled species include pine, scrub and some fruit trees. In Siran forest division of Mansehra, which falls under the remit of conservator forest for Lower Hazara, a total of 10,075 trees measuring 199,040 cft were chopped down in 28 villages along the CPEC route. Further south, over 3,200 mature trees from Shimla Hills, Banda Sinjilya and Thanda Maira village have been chopped off.”35 This is a serious situation. A giant portion of the forest cover has been cleared to accommodate the new economic project. It has disturbed the entire ecosystem of the region. Even though some parallel projects for plantation have been launched by the present government but the replacement of such loss cannot be achieved in short span of time. The damage already caused will have consequences on the regional environment for many years.

Conclusion Urban development is a continuous process. The roads are one essential feature for any urban development and are accepted as guarantors of economic progress. At the same time construction of roads also brings along a number of issues. In the South Asian region due to unceasing increase in population, the governments are facing a number of environmental challenges due to the growing demands for energy, fuel and electricity. Pakistan is facing severe energy crisis since last two decades. China Pakistan collaboration in the form of CPEC is a multibillion,

32 “Northern Areas: State of Environment and Development.” 33 In an EIA report prepared by the National Highway Authority (NHA) in 2015; Muhammad Sadaqat, “Cutting Down Trees for CPEC,” Monthly Herald, May 4, 2017, http://herald.dawn.com/news/1153738 34 “Northern Areas: State of Environment and Development.” 35 Muhammad Sadaqat, “Cutting Down Trees for CPEC.” CPEC & Deforestation in Pakistan 71 multitask and multitier project and is expected to solve many energy problems of Pakistan. The six tracks highways along with the railways and pipe lines have been planned to connect Gwadar port to Chinese cities. The CPEC road network is designed to utilize the already existing highways along with the construction of many road projects. It is from here the challenges to the environment are erupting. Pakistan is among the top 10 countries of the world where deforestation is on rise. A number of new environmental issues like increase in smog especially in Punjab every year is an alarming challenge. The percentage of air pollution is continuously increasing in Punjab and KPK due to the recently launched construction projects of roads and highways. Vast cultivated and forest-covered areas were cleared and thousands of trees were cut down for expansion and extension of roads, although some even before CPEC was launched. Now it is expected that with the new road network under CPEC, whenever it becomes operational, there will be incessant course of traffic on these roads and highways. The pollution index would further increase with excess of carbon dioxide, noise and land pollution. The CPEC will definitely bring prosperity and growth to Pakistan but the need is to adopt a unified approach to deal with the multidimensional challenges of economic growth and development on one hand and environment on the other. As the WWF has pointed out in its recent report that opting a nature based solution is needed to deal with the challenges. There is a dire need of planning and management to meet the possible environmental damages occurring due to CPEC. It could initially be by reforestation. Since Pakistan has recently experienced heavy rains, conserving rainwater with a proper manageable storage system, by building small dams and by reviving natural waterways would definitely help to deal with the issue. In this context the government’s drive to increase plantation throughout the country is yet a positive move. In order to avoid further deforestation the remaining roads and highways must be constructed by avoiding densely forested and cultivated areas along the CPEC routes even if some additional construction cost is to be incurred. At least a double number of seed and trees should be planted along the road immediately after the completion of any project. In fact, a process of reforestation should be continued parallel to the deforestation. It would also be helpful if the remaining CPEC route roads are preferably constructed far away from the green areas such as the cultivated agricultural lands, forests - where large number of trees are at mature age and height, and the water resources. Moreover, since most part of the route in Punjab and KPK is passing through vegetable and fruit farms, re- vegetation projects should be immediately launched in alternative areas to avoid farmers’ losses and of overall agricultural production. Deforestation without proper reforestation may cause large number of environmental problems, which can be handled by proper infrastructure development. 72 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Both the parties to the CPEC must be agree to adopt, dovetail development projects with afforestation and implement such revamped initiatives at the earliest. Understanding the Syrian Crises 73

UNDERSTANDING COMPLEX NATURE OF THE SYRIAN CRISES

Khurshid Khan & Ms Fouzia Amin

Abstract By taking the lead from the ‘Arab Spring’, starting from January 26, 2011, the Syrian people launched peaceful protests against the Bashar-ul-Asad regime’s policies, but it quickly turned into a full- scale civil war, causing the death of over half a million people, pushing Syria back into ‘Stone Age’. In the presence of external players, including America and Russia in opposite camps; the security state in Syria has become too complex. The US decision to pull out its troops from Syria has helped Assad significantly consolidate his grip over the country. Yet, a sense of durable peace in Syria is still off the map due to the interplay of multiple factors. In this research, Syria’s civil war has been analysed as a case study through a combination of historical, descriptive and qualitative research methods. Keywords: Jasmine Revolution, Dictatorial Policies, Racism, Iron Fist, Syrian Crisis

Introduction yria is part of a distinct regional security complex of West Asia. It has a rich history that starts around 2400 BC. Present-day Syria is only a S small segment of the ancient Syrian state which was divided by the western powers in the post-Ottoman era. Present Syria is surrounded by Lebanon to the southwest, Turkey to the north, Iraq to the east, Jordan to the south, and Israel to the southwest. It is home to diverse ethnic and religious groups.1 After becoming independent on April 15, 1946, Syria

 Principal of Cadet College Palandri, Azad Jammu & Kashmir. Email: [email protected]  Lecturer at the Department of International Relations, National Defence University, Islamabad. Email: [email protected] 1 “History of Syria, Historical Background,” Nations Online, https:www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/History/Syria-history.htm, accessed January 10, 2019; Howard Hayes Scullard, “Home Geography & Travel Countries Of The World –Syria,” Search Britannica, June 11, 2020, www.britannica.com>...>Countries of the World.; “Map of Syria and Middle 74 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 continued to face political unrest until November 1970 when Lieutenant General Hafiz-al-Assad, got hold of the country, after a bloodless military coup. He ruled Syria for 30 years with iron hands and died on June 10, 2000. He was replaced by his son Bashar-al-Assad.2 Assad promised to introduce reforms in the country to redress the grievances of the people but did not follow it up. Instead, he took U-turn and followed his father’s policies.3 As a corollary, restive population already motivated by ‘Arab Spring’, started popular uprising in January 2011.4 To appease the masses, Assad announced several plans including the lifting of the country’s 48 years old state of emergency.5 Yet, in the absence of a well-thought-out strategy, he used brutal force to control the protestors and called them ‘rebels’6 which forced them to take up arms. The ‘rebels’ instantly started to receive foreign help. Initially, America placed around 2,000 ground troops in the north and north-east of Syria to support Syrian Kurds.7 Under the cover of anti-Assad forces, jihadist groups like Islamic State/Islamic State of Iraq and Syria(IS/ISIS) also entered Syria and penetrated in the ranks of rebels. Due to this change, the US and its allies withheld their support to rebels, a step that helped Assad to regain the lost territory from IS.8 In December 2018, President Trump took an hasty decision to withdraw American troops from Syria by proclaiming that IS/ISIS was defeated in Syria.9 In reality, his claim was as “bad as Obama’s dismissing

East,” Nations Online,www.nationsonline.org>oneworld>map>syria-map, accessed June 27, 2020.; “Geography of Syria,” Fanack, https://fanack.com/syria/geography/, accessed June 27, 2020. 2 “History of Syria, Historical background.” 3 “Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad: Facing down Rebellion,” BBC News, September 3, 2018, https://www.bbc.com/news/10338256. 4 “Arab Spring: A Research & Study Guide,” Cornell University Library, December 22, 2020, guides.library.cornell.edu › arab_spring › Syria. 5 CNN Editorial Research, “Syrian Civil War Fast Facts,” CNN World, April 9, 2020, https://edition.cnn.com/2013/08/27/world/meast/syria-civil-war- fast-facts/index.html. 6 “Syria: How it all began”, The World, April 23, 2011, https://www.pri.org/stories/2011-04-23/syria-how-it-all-began, accessed June 27, 2020. 7 Mark Landler, Helene Cooper, and Eric Schmidt, “Trump Withdraws U.S. Forces from Syria, Declaring ‘We Have Won Against ISIS’,” The New York Times, December 19, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/ 12/19/us/politics/trump-syria-turkey-troop-withdrawal.html. 8 “Political Map of Syria,” Nations Online, https://www.nationsonline.org/ oneworld/map/syria-map.htm, accessed February 26, 2019. 9 Katie Galioto, “Trump Says ISIS Will Be 'Gone by Tonight',” Politico, March 20, 2019; Mark Landler, Helene Cooper, and Eric Schmidt, “Trump Withdraws U.S. Forces from Syria, Declaring ‘We Have Won Against ISIS’.” Understanding the Syrian Crises 75 them as the Junior Varsity or “J.V.” squad.”10 As stated by Seth G. Jones, despite the IS’s loss of territory in Iraq and Syria, a diffused Salafi-jihadist movement was far from defeated in Syria.11 American security officials also opined that Trump’s statement “encourage(d) Daesh to stay in the fight and demoralise(d) our allies.”12 The future of the Syrian public is yet undecided. Its main cities have been turned into rubbles. By March 2019, the armed conflict had left more than 500,000 people dead and half of its 22 million population has been uprooted and compelled to seek refuge elsewhere.13 The nature of the Syrian crisis and its solution is too complex. It involves around eleven regional states and two outside powers besides an unaccounted number of Jihadist groups. It is a kind of ‘low-intensity mini world war’ between the two blocs where Syria remains the battlefield. Moreover, the existence of Syrian, Turkish and Iraqi Kurds across the Syria-Turk border as the coalition is a danger for Turkish solidarity due to which Ankara continues to shuffle between the two blocs. An in-depth analysis of the Syrian crisis presents a bleak future but optimistically, a ‘stable political order’ in Syria and its surrounding regions can be restored through political means. This article is aimed at exploring the complex nature of the Syrian crisis to suggest a possible way forward. The study tries to answer following questions: what circumstances characterize the Syrian crisis? What is the role of regional and extra-regional players in the crisis? And what implications do these characteristics have for the future of Syria? Thus, this paper intends to understand the complexity of the Syrian crisis regarding the internal and external dynamics in the context of the

10 Marc A. Thiessen, “The 10 Worst Things Trump Did In 2018,” The Washington Post, January 3, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-10- worst-things-trump-did-in-2018/2019/01/02/f4025456-0eb0-11e9-84fc- d58c33d6c8c7_story.html; Elizabeth Dent, “The UN-sustainability of ISIS Detentions in Syria,” The Middle East Institute, Policy Paper, March 2019, https://www.mei.edu/publications/unsustainability-isis-detentions-syria. 11 Seth G. Jones, and Nicholas Harrington, “The Evolution of the Salafi-Jihadist Threat, Current and Future Challenges from the Islamic State, Al-Qaeda, and Other Groups,”Center for Strategic & International Studies, Nov, 2018, 46, https://www.csis.org/analysis/evolution-salafi-jihadist-threat 12 Kim Sengupta, “Isis Emboldened by Trump Withdrawing US Troops from Syria, say Western Officials,” The Independent, January 7, 2019, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-isis-trump- us-troop-withdrawal-james-mattis-kevin-sweeney-brett-mcgurk- a8716111.html 13 Matthew Weaver, “Syrian Refugees: More than 5m in Neighbouring Countries Now, says UN,” The Guardian, March 20, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/30/syrian-refugee- number-passes-5m-mark-un-reveals; “Syrian President Bashar al-Assad: Facing down Rebellion.” 76 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 involvement of state and non-state actors on local, regional and international levels. It has been divided into four sections: First, Arab Spring, the beginning of the Syrian crises; second, Syrian crises, the analysis from the theoretical prism, third, understanding complex character of the Syrian crises; fourth, the impact of the US hasty decision to pull out from Syria, a net assessment; fifth, the regional conflicts with global outreach, an appraisal and finally, the suggested way forward.

Current Context of the Syrian Conflict Since 2000, Bashar-al-Assad son of Hafiz-al-Assad, who was then the Colonel in the Syrian army succeeded him. Bashar promoted himself to the rank of field marshal and became head of the armed forces and secretary-general of the Baath Party. During July 2000, in the symbolic referendum, he was elected as an unopposed president.14 In the beginning, he was willing to introduce the desired reforms but was quickly trapped by the old guards. He maintained status-quo and continued to follow the dictatorial policies of his father.15 Due to the simmering effects of the last 30 years and his failure to introduce reforms, the Syrian public got sick of him hence, they started looking for a chance to revolt against the governing style of the Assad regime.

Arab Spring: the Beginning of the Syrian Crises In Tunisia, on December 17, 2010, Mohamed Bouazizi, a fruit vendor set himself on fire in protest, after being publicly humiliated by a policewoman for not having a permit to sell the goods. Bouazizi’s sacrificial act served as a catalyst, for the so-called ‘Jasmine Revolution’ in Tunisia. Tunisia's public reaction set off uprisings across the Middle East and North Africa that became known as ‘Arab Spring’.16 While many states the Middle East and Africa contained the ‘aftershocks’ of this incident but the countries like Libya, Syria and Yemen were destroyed due to civil war. During this period, Jihadist groups were

14 “Syrian President Bashar al-Assad: Facing down Rebellion”; “Profile: Bashar- al-Assad,” Aljazeera, April 17, 2018, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/ 2018/4/17/profile-bashar-al-assad. 15 “Why is There a War in Syria?” BBC News, February 25, 2019; “Assad Biography,” Aljazeera,https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/4/17/profile- bashar-al-assad; and “Syrian President Bashar al-Assad: Facing down Rebellion.” 16 Joseph V. Micallef, “The Arab Spring: Six Years Later,” Huffington Post, January 29, 2017, https://www.huffpost.com/entry/the-arab-spring-six-years_ b_14461896. Understanding the Syrian Crises 77 able to establish their bases in the affected regions.17 The West failed to appreciate the possible fallout of the incident. Joseph V. Micallef concluded that “our efforts to encourage it only spawned chaos and civil war, and will have only served to destabilize the region even more.”18

Syrian Crises: An Analysis from the Theoretical Prism The ‘relative gains’ as explained by the scholars from the ‘neorealist’ school of thought at times put the states at risk of losing opportunities in a globalized world. According to the neorealist ‘relative gain’ theory is single-minded in weighing the effects of action towards power balances. Since it is a zero-sum game, states have to compete to increase their own interests.19 An in-depth analysis of Russia and the US' demeanour indicates that to protect their respective national interests in the regional context, both countries are involved in fighting ‘war of position’ in some form by applying ‘Structural Realism’ theory, coined by Kenneth Waltz. The ‘war of position’ is a form of war where great powers struggle over small third parties' control.20 Despite being seen as an inward-looking country, the US still wishes to maintain the status quo as a sole ‘superpower’. It would not give up the option of maximizing its power following Mearsheimer’s school of thought. Joe Biden, the president-elect has already hinted to restore America’s image in the world.21 Currently, in the global context, China and Russia are unable to contest the US hegemonic aspirations. Yet, it is believed that after staying in a shell for over twenty years, Russia under the dynamic leadership of Putin has re-emerged as a strong competitor, capable of opposing the US in the regional context if not globally. Moscow has already consolidated its hold in Eastern Europe and Syria by applying ‘offensive realism’ and compelled the US and its allies to adopt ‘defensive

17 “The Arab Spring: A Year of Revolution,” NPR December 17, 2011, https://www.npr.org/2011/12/17/143897126/the-arab-spring-a-year-of- revolution; Micallef, “The Arab Spring: Six Years Later.” 18 Micallef, “The Arab Spring: Six Years Later.” 19 Feina Cai, “Absolute and Realtive Gains in a Real World,” E-International Relations, April 28, 2011, https://www.e-ir.info/pdf/8447 20 Kenneth N. Waltz, Theory of International Politics (New York: Random House, 1979), chapter 5. 21 Susan B. Glasser, “Biden will Restore America’s Moral Leadership,” The New Yorker, September 28, 2020, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/ 2020/10/05/biden-will-restore-americas-moral-leadership; Yashwant Raj “Biden to Return US to Paris Accord, Rescind Muslim Ban on Day One in Office,” Hindustan Times, January 17, 2021, https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/biden-to-return-us-to-paris- accord-rescind-muslim-ban-on-day-one-in-office-101610863079929.html. 78 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 realism’.22 In the changed security scenarios in the contested region of the Middle East, America has accepted the dominant role of Russia. America seems constrained as it is already embroiled in containing China in the Asia-Pacific region. Moreover, the impact of Covid-19 on its economy and the latest wave of racism and the resultant unrest in America have put it on the back foot in dealing with global affairs. The vacuum is likely to be filled by Russia and China in their respective regions of interest. In the Middle East region, Turkey has also emerged as a strong competitor vis-à- vis Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia. Though, the US would still like to maintain its influence in the region, but its initiatives in the recent past do not support that it would reduce Russia’s influence over Syria.23 The rivalry between Russia and the US has enabled Iran to exercise greater influence in the region and play a key role in re-shaping Syria's future. In this ongoing great game, Saudi Arabia and Palestine are the net losers. Riyadh is stuck-up in Yemen and continues to lose the grip over the regional affairs vis-à-vis that of Iran and Israel. Yet, it appears, the sole winner out of the Syrian crisis is none other than Israel. Finally, at present, both China and Russia would avoid a direct conflict with the US and let it enjoy global clout. But despite their confines, they would not give up their claims over the contested regions like the South China Sea by China and Eastern Europe and Syria by Russia. They would resist the US if such a situation arose. Yet, Washington’s displayed attitude towards Libya, North Korea and Syria and it's ‘inward’ looking trends since the recent past does not suggest that a clash between these Great Powers is likely in the near future.

Understanding Complexity of the Syrian Crisis “The Tunisians had already been freed. The Egyptians were on their way to be free. We thought it was our turn to be free too,” Amer Matar, an organizer of the first major protest in Syria said.24“With a harsh crackdown, Assad’s regime helped turn a protest movement into a civil war”, said Raja Abdulrahim.25 The peaceful marches were looking for

22 Brandon Valeriano, “The Tragedy of Offensive Realism: Testing Aggressive Power Politics Models,” Empirical and Theoretical Research in International Relations, Volume 35,Issue 2,May13 2009, 179. 23 “Syrian President Bashar al-Assad: Facing down Rebellion.” 24 “Arab Uprising: Country by Country – Syria,” BBC News World, December 16, 2013,https://www.bbc.com/news/world-12482309. 25 Raja Abdul Rahim, ‘“Assad or We Burn the Country’: How the Syrian Regime Prevailed,” The Wall Street Journal, March 6, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/assad-or-we-burn-the-country-how-the- syrian-regime-prevailed-11551886374. Understanding the Syrian Crises 79 reforms, then quickly turned into hatred, pitching the Sunni Muslim majority against the president's Shia Alawite sect.26 The civil war also embroiled outside actors in the never-ending horror thus, making the security state in Syria far more complex.27 Straightaway, Assad vowed to crush what he called ‘terrorism’ with an ‘iron fist’. Assad's regime used brutal force against his opponents.28In reaction, defectors from the Syrian army/civilians formed Free Syrian Army (FSA), backed by the US, its Gulf allies and Turkey to fight against the Assad regime, thus Syria slided into a civil war. In a short time, the rebels seized control of large parts of the country's north and east. However, as indicated earlier, with the entry of IS in ranks and files of the rebels, the US and its allies got panicked. They decided to withhold their support to rebels’ on the plea that they were no more legitimate reps of Syrian people. This in turn, enabled Syrian forces to regain control over population centers in the South and West. Since 2016, support from Iran and Russia has decisively turned the war's tide in Assad’s favor.29The map below indicates the latest ground positions of various groups, fighting inside Syria. Figure: 1

26 “What's Happening in Syria?” BBC News, April 16, 2018, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-12482309. 27 “Syria's Civil War Explained from the Beginning,” Aljazeera, April 14, 2018, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/4/14/syrias-war-explained-from- the-beginning; “Profile: Bashar al-Assad.” 28 “Syrian President Bashar al-Assad: Facing down Rebellion.”; “The Arab Spring: A Year of Revolution.”; “Syria's Civil War Explained from the Beginning.”; Ian Black, “Assad Or We Burn the Country by Sam Dagher Review – Scoop-Filled History of Syria’s Downfall,” The Guardians, July 15, 2019,https://www.theguardian.com/books/2019/jul/15/assad-or-we-burn- the-country-sam-dagher-review. 29 Syrian President Bashar al-Assad: Facing down Rebellion.” 80 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

The map indicates that after nine years of war in Syria, there is no winner. Although Assad succeeded in stabilizing his regime, civil war continues. The country stands devastated and its renowned cities have been turned into rubbles. While the exact figures are not known, Syria's conflict has already left around half a million people dead and over one million injured.30 Moreover, the resettlement of displaced people who live in prisoners- like environs within the country is yet another challenge. Their children continue to suffer badly on account of healthcare and education. The adjacent countries sharing refugees’ burden are already under a lot of stress, they might collapse anytime. Above all, financially, the Assad regime cannot support the masses as Syria continues to remain under the US and European sanctions. Thus, the security situation inside Syria is far from satisfactory and even if peace is restored, resettlement of around half of Syria’s 22 million populations would be a daunting task.31 There is still no hope that the Syrian people would get peace soon. Since 2014, the Geneva process duly backed by the UNSC held several rounds of talks but could not succeed due to the vested interests of the actors like Iran, Russia and Turkey. Astana, a lateral peace process to Geneva, arranged under Russian leadership during 2016 also failed to make any headway.32 Thus, in the absence of America from the scene, the advantage has already gone to the Assad regime that has already confirmed in clear terms that it will not succumb to rebels’ pressure.

The Role of the Regional and Extra-Regional Players America’s Behavior Towards Syria America and its regional allies played a key role in arming anti- Assad groups, what they considered ‘moderate’ rebels. Right from the start, virtually, the US did not involve itself deeply in the Syrian civil war yet, it continued to back the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a coalition of Kurdish-Arab fighters dominated by the People's Protection Units (YPG). This group was readily available to fight against IS/ Assad regime.33 In

30 “Syrian Refugee Crisis: Facts, FAQs, and How to Help,” World Vision, https://www.worldvision.org/.../syrian-refugee-crisis-facts, accessed February 26, 2019. ; “Why is There a War in Syria?”; and “Syria's Civil War Explained from the Beginning.” 31 Aron Lund, “Briefing: Just How ‘Smart’ are Sanctions on Syria?” The New Humanitarian, April 25, 2019; “Syria: Sanctions against the Regime Extended by One Year,” European Council, Council of the European Union, May 28, 2020, 1; Weaver, “Syrian Refugees: More than 5M in Neighbouring Countries Now.” 32 “Between Astana and Geneva: The Outlook of Conflicting Agendas in the Syrian Crisis,” Aljazeera, Centre for Studies, January 3, 2017.; “Why is There a War in Syria?”; and “Syria's Civil War Explained from the Beginning.” 33 Sirwan Kajjo, “Kurds in Syria: We Have Right to Respond to Turkish Attacks,” Voice of America, October 31, 2018, https://www.voanews.com/a/kurds-in- Understanding the Syrian Crises 81

2013 and 2014, despite Russia’s warnings, in response to the Assad regime's chemical attacks, the US launched a missile attack against the Syrian air force base and a chemical weapons site.34 Washington’s intimate support to anti-Assad forces was critical to defeating the Syrian forces. The US decided to withdraw its forces from Syria while keeping around 400 soldiers as part of ‘residual force’ to continue its mission and safeguard its interests in the region. However, despite criticism, Pentagon has denied providing the exact strength.35America’s decision to shift its national security priorities from counterterrorism to state threats would encourage Salafi-jihadists to operate freely, “it would be a mistake to declare victory against terrorism too quickly,” said Jones.36

Russia’s Critical Role in Defending the Assad Regime Russia is a long-time trusted Syrian ally.37It entered the Syrian conflict in 2015, having 63,000 troops already present on the ground. Intense Russian air and missile strikes were decisive in the battles for the

syria-we-have-right-to...to...-/4637931.html, accessed March 4, 2019; Joe Gould, “What’s the Next Step for ISIS? A Top US General Shares his Prediction with Lawmakers,” Defense News, March 7, 2019, https://www.defensenews.com/congress/2019/03/07/whats-the-next-step- for-isis-a-top-us-general-shares-his-prediction-with-lawmakers/. 34 “Syria's Civil War Explained from the Beginning.”; “Why is There a War in Syria?”; Syrian President Bashar al-Assad: Facing Down Rebellion.”; “What's Happening in Syria?” 35 Jeff Seldin, “US Troop Levels in Syria 'Quite a Bit Lower' with Help on the Way,” Voice of America, May 31, 2019,https://www.voanews.com/middle- east/us-troop-levels-syria-quite-bit-lower-help-way; Julian Borger, “Trump Administration Challenged to Reveal Troop Levels in War Zones,” The Guardian, April 22, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/us- news/2020/apr/22/us-troop-levels-afghanistan-iraq-syria-military-foi. ; Dion Nissenbaum and Nancy A. Youssef, “U.S. Military Now Preparing to Leave as Many as 1,000 Troops in Syria,” Wall Street Journal, March 17, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-military-now-preparing-to-leave-as- many-as-1-000-troops-in-syria-; Steven A. Cook, “400 American Troops Can’t Do Anything,” Council of Foreign Relations, March 13, 2019, https://www.cfr.org/article/400-american-troops-cant-do-anything; Ryan Browne, “Top US General in Middle East Says Fight against ISIS 'Far From Over',” CNN Politics, March 7, 2019, https://edition.cnn.com/2019/ 03/07/politics/votel-isis-fight/index.html. 36 Jones, “The Evolution of the Salafi-Jihadist Threat.” 37 Macfarquhar, “Hafez al-Assad, Who Turned Syria into a Power in the Middle East.”; “Syrian’s Kurdish Fighters Ready to Help Set Up 'Safe Zone'.” 82 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 besieged rebels’ strongholds of eastern Aleppo in late 2016 and the Eastern Ghouta in early 2018.38 Despite diverging interests, Russia and America did not confront each other directly rather, being common enemies, the two sides coordinated their efforts to root out IS from the region.39Yet, at the UNSC level, Russia and China repeatedly blocked the US-backed resolutions on Syria. Russia also opposed the creation of the ‘No-fly zone’ within Syria.40 Turkey occasionally coordinated with Russia and Iran to stabilize the region's security situation, despite criticism from the US.41

Role of the Regional Actors in Growing Anarchy The rebels fighting against the Assad regime were supported by Sunni-majority countries of the region, including Turkey, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. On the other side, Assad got support from Iran, Iraq and Lebanon- based Hezbollah.42At one stage, the numbers of groups opposing the Assad regime since the conflict began were in hundreds, with an estimated 100,000 fighters.43 Israel is one of the key players in the region that also remains engaged in the Syrian conflict. As highlighted earlier, the ‘Arab Spring’ benefited Israel the most as its opponents in the region have almost reached the verge of collapse. Occasionally, in coordination with the US, Israel also launched air attacks against intended targets inside Syria. Israel did not welcome the US decision to pull out its forces from Syria.44 Turkey is another regional actor, directly involved in the conflict. It has enough military power to replace American forces in north-eastern Syria and ensure the Syrian people's stability. David Pollock explained that around 60,000 Kurdish-led SDF fought effectively alongside American forces against IS for four years thus, they must be protected.45 Trump

38 “Syrian President Bashar al-Assad: Facing Down Rebellion.”; “Syria's Civil War Explained from the Beginning; and “Why is There a War in Syria?” 39 Syrian President Bashar al-Assad: Facing Down Rebellion.”; “Syria's Civil War Explained from the Beginning.” 40 “Syria's Kurdish Fighters Ready to Help Set Up 'Safe Zone'.” 41 Vladimir Soldatkin and Andrew Osborn, “Kremlin, after Summit, says No Offensive Planned in Syria's Idlib,” Reuters, February 14, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-russia-turkey-iran- idUSKCN1Q31JC; Saroj Kumar Rath, “A New Era of Chaos in Afghanistan,” Fountain Ink, Volume 8, Issue 5, March 2019, https://fountainink.in/essay/a- new-era-of-chaos-in-afghanistan. 42 “Syria's Civil War Explained from the Beginning.” 43 “What's Happening in Syria?” 44 Landler et al., “Trump Withdraws U.S. Forces from Syria.” 45 David Pollock, “How the United States Can Still Keep Faith with Its Best Allies in Syria,” The Washington Institute, January 3, 2019, https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/how-united-states- Understanding the Syrian Crises 83 called the Kurds "incredible fighters" and "great people."46 Mike Pompeo admitted the possibility of a conflict between Turkey and SDF and stressed that this group should be protected against the Turk onslaught. Despite America’s reservations, Turkey has already created a ‘safe zone’ along the Syria-Turk border by defeating the SDF.47 Iran is yet another regional actor, closely associated with the Assad regime. It has actively participated in Syria in support of the Assad regime, directly and through its well-trained Hezbollah. As stated by Gen. Joseph Votel, “the Iranian regime is seeking to dominate countries in the Middle East.”48 In Iran’s opposition, Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies armed and financed the rebels who were later marginalized. Having failed to facilitate regime change, their primary aim is to limit Iran’s influence in post- conflict Syria.49Currently, Saudi Kingdom is involved in re-establishing its diplomatic relations with the Assad regime Taking advantage of the security situation, IS/ISIL also entered Syria in 2013. It joined the rebellion against Assad forces, where it found a safe-haven and easy access to weapons. After capturing large parts of Iraq, it got hold of a vast territory in the north and along the Turkish border. As earlier explained, the presence of ISIL in Syria alongside rebels was a big shock for the US and its allies. Since 2014, they have withheld their military support to rebels and in the process, helped the Assad regime to regain control over a vast area.50 However, it is significant to highlight that the number of Salafi-jihadist groups present in the region is at the highest recorded level since 1980.51 Presently, they are scattered but they have the resilience to come back as a united force. Even now, they are holding on to Idlib-the north-western province of Syria.52

can-still-keep-faith-its-best-allies-syria; Dent, “The UN-sustainability of ISIS Detentions in Syria.” 46 Kylie Atwood, “Trump Tells Worried Ally 'I Love the Kurds' in Hotel Meeting,” CNN, January 29, 2019, https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/29/politics/trump- kurds-hotel-meeting/index.html. 47 Todman, “Settling Kurdish Self-Determination in Northeast Syria.” ;Fahim, Dadouch and Khattab, “Turkey Launches Offensive against U.S.-allied Kurdish Forces in Northern Syria.”; and “Turkey-Syria Border: All the Latest Updates.” 48 “US General: Iranian Regime Seeks to Dominate Countries of the Region,” Arab News, March 7, 2019, https://www.arabnews.com/node/1463106/middle- east. 49 Todman, “Settling Kurdish Self-Determination in Northeast Syria,”; and “Why is There a War in Syria?” 50 “What's Happening in Syria?”;Macfarquhar, “Hafez al-Assad, Who Turned Syria into a Power in the Middle East.”; “Profile: Bashar al-Assad.” 51 Seth G Jones, “The Evolution of the Salafi-Jihadist Threat,”46. 52 “Why is There a War in Syria?”; Seth G Jones, “The Evolution of the Salafi- Jihadist Threat.” 84 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Impact of the US Hasty Decision to Pull-Out from Syria On December 19, 2018, President Trump stunned his allies by announcing American troops' withdrawal from Syria after claiming victory against ISIS and plunged the country's future into uncertainty.53As a damage control measure, national security adviser, John R. Bolton, rolled back Trump’s decision to withdraw from Syria rapidly. He said for a smooth withdrawal, “American forces may have to stay in Syria for months or even years.”54 Trump’s claim beside, it is believed that still there are significant threats of violence in Syria. A study conducted by Seth Jones reveals that “despite nearly two decades of the US-led war against terrorism, there are nearly four times as many Sunni Islamic militants today as there were on September 11, 2001.” Attack data composed by CSIS indicates that due to the presence of a large number of fighters inside Syria, there are still high levels of violence and security concerns in Syria and Iraq from Salafi-jihad- ist groups.55 For his impulsive decision, Trump was brought under tremendous pressure by various American civil society segments, including retired/serving Generals and bureaucrats/ politicians. As a result, he was compelled to make changes in his decision to make it flexible.56 Although, in his revised verdict, he gave four months of cushion time for withdrawal of American troops but practically, there is a logjam. As pointed out earlier, even the exact number of American troops present in Syria are being kept secret by the Pentagon. Trump’s decision has also undermined the security state inside Syria which has direct consequences for humanitarian support provision. Furthermore, since the financial support from the world to tackle with the Syrian crisis is receding every year, it would be impossible for countries

53 “U.S. General Warns of Islamic State Resurgence as 'Caliphate' Collapse Nears and Survivors Flee,” The Japan Times, March 8, 2019,https://www.japantimes.co.jp/tag/isis/ 54 David E. Sanger, “Bolton Puts Conditions on Syria Withdrawal, Suggesting a Delay of Months or Years,” The New York Times, January 06, 2019; Turkish President Snubs Bolton over Comments That Turkey Must Protect Kurds.” 55 Seth G Jones, “The Evolution of the Salafi-Jihadist Threat.”; “Quick facts: What You Need to Know About the Syria Crisis,” Mercy Crops, www.mercycorps.org/...syria/quick-facts-what-you-need-know-about-syria- c..., accessed January 10, 2019. 56 Eric Schmitt and Maggie Haberman, “Trump to Allow Months for Troop Withdrawal in Syria, Officials Say,” The New York Times, December 31, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/31/us/politics/trump-troop- withdrawal-syria-months.html; Mark Landler, “Trump Withdraws U.S. Forces from Syria.”; Gould, “What’s the Next Step for ISIS?”; “US General: Iranian Regime Seeks to Dominate Countries of the Region,” Arab News.; “U.S. General Warns of Islamic State Resurgence,” The Japan Times. Understanding the Syrian Crises 85 like Jordan and Lebanon to feed around 1.6 million Syrian refugees that continue to grow exponentially.57 Thus, there is a real possibility of more death and miseries awaiting the Syrian people in the absence of American support.58 A hasty US withdrawal decision has put Russia in driving seat as the key power broker in Syria. In the absence of American troops, Kurdish- Arabs' survival would be at stake because they would face two front threats. As pointed out earlier, SDF has already given up its control over 20 miles’ areas along the Turk-Syria border. The possibility of American endeavor to get limited autonomy for Kurdish-Arabs from the Assad regime with an international guarantee has become quite low.59 The above argument aside, some scholars view that SDF would not give up self-determination drive so easily because it still maintains a strong force of around 60,000 soldiers yet, it would impede the campaign against IS/ISIL and will set the stage for a new bloody, long-term struggle for self-determination.60 An American withdrawal would also increase the probability of terrorist groups re-establishing their sanctuaries in the region due to ineffective governing institutions in fragile states like Syria and contribute towards protracted instability in the region. Essentially, it would be a setback for the American policy to deal with IS/ISIS. In the absence of its boots on the ground, SDF would be unable to deal with around 10,000 IS/ISIS members.61 Finally, the US decision would compromise its strategic interests in the region and beyond. In the absence of its direct pressure, Assad would

57 Anthony H. Cordesman, “Looking beyond Syria and ISIS: America’s Real Strategic Needs in the Middle East,” Center for Strategic & International Studies, February 28, 2019; Weaver, “Syrian Refugees: More Than 5M in Neighbouring Countries Now.” 58 Weaver, “Syrian Refugees: More Than 5M in Neighbouring Countries Now.”; Cordesman, “Iraq, Iran, the Gulf, Turkey, and the Future.” 59 Mona Yacoubian, “A Month After U.S. Withdrawal, What is the State of Play in Syria?” United States Institute of Peace, November 7, 2019, www.usip.org>publications>2019/11>month-after..., accessed July 3, 2020, 1,2,3; Todman, “Settling Kurdish Self-Determination in Northeast Syria.”; Miriam Berger, “Here’s What We Know about the ISIS Prisons Controlled by the Syrian Kurds,” The Washington Post, October 14, 2019, www.washingtonpost.com>world>2019/10/12>insi.... 60 Todman, “Settling Kurdish Self-Determination in Northeast Syria.”; Youssefand Lubold, “The Number is at Least Double Previous Estimates.”; Dent, “The UN-sustainability of ISIS Detentions in Syria,” 1. 61 Seth G Jones, “The Evolution of the Salafi-Jihadist Threat,” 48; Berger, “Here’s What We Know about the ISIS Prisons Controlled by the Syrian Kurds.”; Yacoubian, “A Month After U.S. Withdrawal, What is the State of Play in Syria?” 5; Nancy A.Youssef and Gordon Lubold, “The Number Is At Least Double Previous Estimates and An Obstacle to Trump Administration Plans to Withdraw U.S. Forces from Syria,” The Wall Street Journal, March 5, 2019, 1. 86 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 come hard through repression against his opponents, which might inevitably encourage other Sunni groups to create some kind of organized resistance, thus putting Syria back in a state of Syria ‘vicious cycle’. The causes for unrest in Syria are likely to be far worse in the future than they were in 2011.62 Hence, the legacy that America would leave in Syria is not going to be cleaned soon.

The Regional Conflicts with Global Impact: An Appraisal Since the 1980s, to protect its interests globally, America has been selectively fighting the menace of terrorism. The US policy to fight this menace has been driven by punitive measures which only created more enemies against it. It is believed that none of the leading world players inclusive of China, Russia and the US has been able to address the core causes of the problems and devise a policy of reconciliation while dealing with terrorism matters. Since the start of the 21st century, America has been unable to define its strategic goals correctly. First, it destroyed Iraq without looking for an end game. In the backdrop of 9/11, it reacted impulsively and declared a worldwide ‘war on terror’, without a clearly defined purpose. Countries like Pakistan were even compelled to join the US in the war against terrorism.63 By destroying Iraq during 2003, the US has since fought a series of wars against terrorism in Iraq and Syria. Elsewhere in the region, America alongside its allies also committed a blunder to oust Qaddafi and helped trigger an unending low-level civil war in Libya. Its decision to withdraw from Syria has already encouraged Russia and its allies to become major actors in Syria and far stronger hostile competitors in the region.64 American strategy to punish Iran through sanctions and political isolation has failed. It is opined that after defeating Saddam Hussain, rather than protecting its strategic interest in Iraq, the US created favourable environments for Iran to assert its influence in the region. With tacit support from China and Russia, the current strategic/security environment provides sufficient leverage to Iran over its regional rivals.65 Thus, in the recent past, Iran could see into America’s eyes by threatening

62 Goldberg, “Don’t Call the Israeli-Palestinian Dispute the ‘Middle East Conflict’.”; Cordesman, “Looking Beyond Syria and ISIS.”; Youssef and Lubold, “The Number is at Least Double Previous Estimates.” 63 "War on Terrorism,"Global Policy Forum, www.globalpolicy.org/war-on- terrorism-html, accessed March 10, 2019. 64 Cordesman, “Looking Beyond Syria and ISIS.”; Middle East Bureau, “Middle East Scenario in 2019,” NDT New Delhi Times, January 14, 2018. 65 Seth G. Jones, “War by Proxy: Iran’s Growing Footprint in the Middle East,” Center for Strategic & International Studies, March 11, 2019. Understanding the Syrian Crises 87 to block the smooth flow of petroleum out of the Gulf, directly impacting the sustained global economy and the US trade.66 Concerning the settlement of the Palestinian issue, it was expected that Trump might be able to agree with Israel. Still, his peace plan based on a strategy of ‘outside-in’ rather than an ‘inside-out’, has no chance to succeed.67 Instead, America has already pleased Israel by recognizing its authority over the long-disputed Golan Heights and shifting its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.68 Above all, Washington has successfully managed to bring some Gulf states close to Israel including the United Arab Emirates.69Thus, Israel remains the sole winner in the region as the balance of power has undoubtedly been shifted in its favor vis-à-vis that of Iran and Saudi Arabia. Currently, because of its cold relations with its European allies, the US is already struggling to persuade them to stay in alliance in their war against IS/ISIS.70 However, there is a likelihood that President Joe Biden would review the US's existing policies and might succeed in reviving America’s relations with Europe and Iran. An in-depth analysis of the regional and international security scenarios proves that global peace is at stake. The regional coalitions are failing and the global organs like the UNSC have become hostage to its five permanent members. The so-called sole superpower has already hinted to pull back from global responsibilities under ‘America first’ policy and the impact of Covid-19 has stamped over its planned strategy.

Conclusion Currently, the Syrian people are in deep water. Although, an in- depth analysis of the Syrian crisis, presents a gloomy picture and is quite tricky to carve the right course from the ‘fog of war’, but it is sincerely believed that ‘where there is a will, there is a way’. To protect humanity in Syria, Russia and the US duly supported by their allies need to adopt a sincere approach to dig out a viable political solution to the issue at hand. Because of the complex nature of the problem, it might take longer to carve an acceptable plan. We should not leave Syrian people high and

66 Anthony H. Cordesman, “Iraq, Iran, the Gulf, Turkey, and the Future.” 67 Goldberg, “Don’t Call the Israeli-Palestinian Dispute the ‘Middle East Conflict’.” 68 Mark Landler and Edward Wong, “In Golan Heights, Trump Bolsters Israel’s Netanyahu but Risks Roiling Middle East,” The New York Times, March 21, 2019. 69 “Israel Signs Historic Deal with UAE That Will ‘Suspend’ West Bank Annexation,” The Guardian, August 13, 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/ world/2020/aug/13/..., accessed January 18, 2021, 1. 70 Nancy A. Youssef and Dion Nissenbaum, “U.S. Gives European Allies Friday Target to Sign on to Syria Proposal,” The Wall Street Journal, March 7, 2019. 88 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 dry. The solution to the Syrian crisis is political and it is humanity that needs to be supported. We should neither abandon the Syrian public nor those developing countries like Jordon and Lebanon which are hosting a large number of Syrian refugees. These countries deserve sustained economic support to enable them to carry on their duties of helping the refugees till their resettlement. Although IS/ISIS terrorists stand largely defeated in Syria, it could still lead to failure if America turns its back on the allies who have helped in winning that battle. It would be a mistake to declare victory over terrorism so quickly. Hence, the US must avoid snatching such a defeat from the jaws of its victory over the IS by keeping its due attention and the required resources intact. Trump's hasty decision to pull-out from Syria has already destabilized his allies. Right now, SDF which is exposed to the threat of an assault from multiple directions needs to be protected. The US must stabilize Syria's security situation to gain time for working out a well- thought-out plan to restore long-awaited peace in Syria. A stable regional environment is critical to move the peace process forward. Russia has emerged as the key power broker in the region. It can play a critical role in improving the regional environment by helping Kurds get ‘limited autonomy’ while persuading the US to help reintegrate Northeast Syria into Assad’s control. It would prevent Turkey from seizing another large portion of Syrian territory and avoid a further costly military campaign. Finally, a poor and neglected Syria would continue to cause long- term security problems for the entire world. Thus, the end game in Syria depends on the behaviour and the level of economic support that the US and its close allies are likely to commit for reconstruction and resettlement of Internally Displaced Persons and the refugees settled elsewhere.

Analysis of Different Educational Systems Of Pakistan 89

A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENT EDUCATIONAL SYSTEMS ON STUDENTS’ OUTCOME: A CASE STUDY OF PAKISTAN

Syed Waqas Ali Kausar

Abstract This study aims at exploring the impact of structural influences of various educational systems on learners’ groups in Pakistan. The study model is based on ‘Structural Influences Behavior Theory. Mixed method design has been adopted while the research methodology is based on a hypothesized cause and effect relationship. The implications of the following three differing education systems functioning in our country at the same time i.e. madrassa, public sector and private sector are explored. A Likert scale questionnaire has been used to collect the data while Stratified non-probability random sampling has been employed to select the sample, keeping in view the heterogeneity of the population. The sample has been chosen according to the ratio of the population benefitting from each of the education systems in Pakistan. The selected sample has been further subdivided into subgroups on the basis of differences prevalent within each category of respondents. The result of SEM specifies that curriculam, pedagogy and examination system of the existing educational systems in Pakistan significantly impacts professionalism, leadership and social life of the students. Issues like outdated curricula, weak padogigical practices and faulty examination sytems also have strong bearing on professionalism, leadership and social life of the students. Massive reforms, therefore, are long due in the education system of Pakistan to bring it at par with international standards. Keywords: Curriculam, Pedagogy, Examination System, Structural Influence Behaviors, Education Reform

 Assistant Professor at Government & Public Policy, National University of Modern Languages (NUML), Islamabad. Email: [email protected]. 90 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Introduction ducation is an instrument for socio-economic and political empowerment of people. It requires more creative and innovative E interventions in modern era to remain relevant to the needs of the nation. Nations equipped with efficient and modern education systems are always progressive, dynamic and forward-looking while those failing on this count are, more often than not, ill-equipped to claim a covetous position in the comity of nations. A quality education system in fact helps create a generation which, in the final analysis of things, acts as a watch- dog to promote accountability, civil liberties and good governance. Education and economic development are tied together in a strong nexus with each other which was established by a study of 190 countries, revealing that 16 per cent of the wealth production of the world comes from physical capital, such as roads, buildings and dams, etc., 20 per cent from natural resources and 64 per cent from skillful and educated human capital1. Education is the shortest route to knowledge which ultimately leads to the production of wealth and power. To underline the overriding importance of education, Japan came up with a slogan in 1872, “no community with an illiterate family or family with an illiterate person”2 which, in years ahead, made it a leading country in the realm of technology. Article 25A of the 1973 Constitution of Pakistan also acknowledges the importance of education, guaranteeing that, “the State shall provide free and compulsory education to all children of the age of five to sixteen years in such manner as may be determined by law.”3 Education is mostly considered a public service which should be provided to the students without any discrimination, irrespective of their affordability, and mainly as the government’s responsibility4. It is also a fact that Pakistan is one of the nine countries which account for 70 per cent of the total illiterate population of the world5 and occupies 113th position out of 125 nations in literacy rate. Currently, the literacy rate in Pakistan at very low level and only 60 per cent of Pakistan is literate and 40 percent of the literature diaspora is directly or indirectly linked with Madrasah system6. In other words, 40 per cent out of 50 per cent literate Pakistanis are associated with a Madrassah commonly considered as home to the lower class of the society. There are 8.5 million children between

1 UNICEF, The State of World's Childern,(Washington, DC: UNICEF, 2002) 2 Sirajuddin Ahmed, Universal Quality Education: A Challenge to the Whole World(National Book Foundation, 2012) 3 Right to Education, 1973. 4 Shahid Siddiqui, Rethinking Education in Pakistan: Perceptions, Practices, and Possibilities (Paramount Publishing Enterprise, 2007) 5 Ibid. 6 Pakistan Economic Survey, "Education Statistics," Ministry of Finance, Islamabad, 2014, Ch 10, 145. Analysis of Different Educational Systems Of Pakistan 91 the age group of 5-9 years, while only 6.6 million of them get a chance to enter into the primary school. Unfortunately, only 0.33 million out of them make it to higher education each year7. In other words, 12.36 million teenagers are added to the population every year, without any vocational skill or market-oriented education. The enrollment rate in Pakistan is 50 per cent at primary level, while almost 25 per cent of the enrolled students drop out before completing the level. In other words, only 25 per cent of the students enrolled for primary education make it to the secondary education level and only 10 per cent of them complete their secondary education8.There are only 3 per cent students who go for higher education either within the country or abroad. Those who opt for higher education mostly belong to the middle income or high income families and only 50 percent of these students join the mainstream government and private sector jobs. One can, therefore, safely claim that the education system is so flawed and archaic that it is inherently incapable of producing a society fashioned on the principle of parity, merit and equal opportunities for all.

Objectives of the Study The purpose of the study is to: 1. Evaluate the social, professional and leadership qualities of students of different educational systems in the context of existing knowledge-based economy 2. Determine whether the learning of the students of different educational systems in Pakistanis is effective in with regard to curriculum, pedagogy, and examination system 3. Explore the impact of different educational systems on students’ outcome in Pakistan through structural indicators. Research Questions Following are the key research questions of the study: 1. To what extent is the education of the students of different educational systems effective in existing knowledge-based economy? 2. Is there any difference in the outcome of students studying in different educational systems with regard to international standards and market needs? 3. What do the structural indicators reflect about the impact of different educational systems on a student’s outcome in Pakistan?

7 Ibid. 8 Ibid. 92 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Hypothesis H1. There is a significant impact of curriculum on students’ outcome H2. There is a significant impact of pedagogy on students’ outcome H3. There is a significant impact of examination system on student’s outcome Literature Review Pakistan was established through a democratic process but the democratic governments in Pakistan have not been able to deliver services to the general public, provide basic education, maintain the rule of law and establish a model of good governance in the country since 1947.9 Unfortunately, successive governments have failed to develop a quality education system in Pakistan. Before the creation of Pakistan in 1947, the education system was divided into two categories under the British Raj in India: religious education and secular education. The concept of this type of separation between religious and secular education is rarely noted in the history of Islam and people were unaware of it before the British rule in the sub- continent.10 This segregation was further widened with the passage of time and now, the religious education is imparted by religious institutions known as Dini Madaris while secular education is delivered by the government and private schools. On the basis of this segregation, different education systems came into being:1) private education system; 2) public education system; and 3) Madrassah education system.11 Private sector schools are further divided into two categories to cater to the needs and requirements of the students coming from affluent and middle class segments of the society. People with better financial prospects and status send their children to elite schools while students with financially humble backgrounds attend either average private or public sector schools. Although, the education systems in Pakistan do not follow uniform curricula, yet teaching of non-theological subjects along with basic religious education is common.12 It shows that in Pakistan,

9 Sirajuddin Ahmed, Universal Quality Education: A Challenge to the Whole World. 10 Sultan Ali, Madrasah Reform and State Power in Pakistan, (Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom, 2012), 65. 11 Syed Waqas Ali Kausar, and Abdul Wahid Sial, "The Impact of Systematic Structure of Madrassahs on Student's Outcomes in Pakistan: do They Need Structural Reforms?" Journal for the Study of Religions and Ideologies 14, no. 41 (2015): 127-147. 12 Monazza Aslam, and Rehana Siddiqui, "The Determinants of Student Achievement in Government and Private Schools in Pakistan [with Comments," The Pakistan Development Review (2003): 841-876. Analysis of Different Educational Systems Of Pakistan 93 there are three different types of education systems which are actually class-based institutions. When we talk about Madaris (plural of Madrassahh), it is generally considered a kind of system of religious education prevalent in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. In the history of Islam, Madaris were a center for learning of different subjects including science, administration, arts, religion etc. Today, the curricula being followed at Madaris in Pakistan do not include non-theological/ modern subjects such as Chemistry, Biology, Computer, English etc13. Even basic subjects like Mathematics, Science and Computer Studies are not included in the curricula till the secondary level. Although Madaris play a significant role in providing education to poor children of Pakistan, yet they have an outdated curriculum — some still teach geometry from Euclid and medicine from Galen. Emphasis is put on rote learning rather than deeper exploration and study of the Quran, and considerable prestige is attached to becoming a hafiz––learning the Quran by heart.14Many critics opine that people running Madaris are resistant to change, and are only doing it to maintain their constituency, thus running these institutions as their dynastic regimes.15 Similarly, for public schools, the curriculum is mostly driven by state-mandated objectives and it will soon be driven by the Common Core State Standards through National Curriculum Council (NCC).16 These state- mandated objectives also drive the state standardized testing that all public schools are required to take. Public schools are much diverse in terms of ethnicity, socio-economic status, academic ranges and needs of their students.17 The primary objective of education is to create a positive social and economic impact on society at large. It should have a major role in the betterment of the civil society, economic development, and fomenting civic sense, peace and stability18. In this regard, indicators are not encouraging in Pakistan. It is because of the reason that the government has not been able to realize the importance of need-based and market-oriented education. Although some government schools, like cadet schools, teach need-based and market-oriented subjects but in general, they offer the state-mandated curriculum.19

13 Ibid. 14 Peter Bergen, and Swati Pandey, "The Madrassa Scapegoat," Washington Quarterly 29, no. 2 (2006): 115-125. 15 Ashok K. Behuria, "Sects within Sect: the Case of Deobandi–Barelvi Encounter in Pakistan," Strategic Analysis 32, no. 1 (2008): 57-80. 16 "National Curriculum Framework Pakistan,” Ministry of Federal Education & Professional Training, 2018, https://www.pc.gov.pk/uploads/report/NCF.pdf 17 Ibid. 18 Ibid. 19 Joan Ballantine, XinGuo, and Patricia Larres, "Psychometric Evaluation of the Student Authorship Questionnaire: A Confirmatory Factor Analysis Approach," Studies in Higher Education 40, no. 4 (2015): 596-609. 94 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Practically, the government has very little influence on designing the private school curriculum. Though it acts as a regulatory body, but these school systems largely develop and implement their own curricula and assessment system.20The curricula being followed in private school system reflect somewhat of an effort to design them in accordance with international standards. Private schools lay heavy emphasis on teaching of the English language.21 The students enrolled in private schools mostly come from urban areas and show better performance as compared to the students representing public sector schools. Basically, the achievements of students are also generally affected by their teachers’ teaching methodology and overall conduct22. The present education system in Pakistan is largely class-based. Children with weak financial backgrounds mostly join Madaris or public schools, the students belonging to the middle class families prefer private schools, while the elite class opts for highly prestigious schools in the country. The inherent difference in schooling opportunities available to the students belonging to various economic classes in the society, from poor to the elite class, in terms of their curriculum and quality of education, greatly affects their job opportunities and their roles/standing in society. It is actually the influence of differences in education system on students which causes conflict, separation and divide in the society. Our theoretical model is based on Senge (1994) theory called “structure’s influences behaviour’.23 As per the theory of ‘structural influences behavior’, there are three dimensions involved in the existing educational system in Pakistan, including the Systematic Structure (generative), Patterns of Behavior (responsive) and Events (reactive). Though the outcomes of different educational system in Pakistan produces different types of graduates (as per the theory, different people in the same structure tend to produce qualitatively similar results) in the market such as generally low incomes jobs like clerics and others are associated with Madrasah education and to some extent government school system) and graduates who secure high level jobs (private school system). This is mainly due to the difference in quality of education as private educational institutions are better in almost all the important aspects of teaching and learning in Pakistan including, effective class management, expertise of teachers, and staff

20 Sabiha Mansoor, "Regional Languages of Pakistan: Issues and Concerns for Language Planning in Higher Education," Emerging Issues in TEFL: Challenges for Asia (2009): 31-58. 21 Ibid. 22 Ibid. 23 P. M. Senge, "Prisoners of the System, or Prisoners of Our Own Thinking, (The Fifth Discipline: The Art And Practice of the Learning Organization 1994), 45. Analysis of Different Educational Systems Of Pakistan 95 responsiveness24. It shows that there are three types of generative structures which cause their own crisis (responsive) such as Madaris generally produce clerics; government school system brings into being blue collar workers (clerical staff and workers for menial/labor jobs) and the private school system generates people for the white collar jobs (high level officials). This kind of division causes (reactive) conflict, separation and discord in society which further fuel the spirit of fragmentation, frustration and extremism. It is, therefore need of the hour that measures are taken to introduce a basic uniform education standard in Pakistan, to address the challenges the country is facing at the moment.

Methodology The researcher has employed various methods to design and gather quantitative and qualitative data for the study. The hypothesized research design has been employed to show cause and effect relationship. The aim of constructing the current model is to explore the effects of the existing education systems on a students’ outcome. In order to develop theoretical framework, conceptual understanding was built around the ‘Structural Influences Behaviour Theory,’ that lies in the domain of educational world (Art and Practices of Learning Organization), but also tested in the real world behaviours beer game.25 According to this theory, different educational systems, result in various weaknesses and the deficiencies (effects) in students in the areas of sound professional career, becoming vibrant members of civil society and having qualities of leadership, as according to this theory, the crises are related to the internal systems while keeping external forces and individuals secondary26Literature review on education system reveals that most of the education related structural factors and their variables involve more than one dimension and indicator that warrants the use of a latent or endogenous variable model. Six latent variables have been taken in the model on the basis of widespread support from the previous literature. For this purpose, the researcher employed the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to explore effects of latent variables,27like curriculum, pedagogy and examination system on a student’s outcome vis-a-vis

24 Muhammad Rizwan, Comparative Study on Educational Management in Public and Private Institutions in the Twin Cities of Pakistan, REM - Research on Education and Media, 8, (2016). 25 Peter M. Senge, Learning Organizations, (Cambridge: Gilmour Drummond Publishing, 1995). 26 Peter Senge, "Building Learning Organizations," Knowledge Management (2004): 19. 27 J.F., Hair, W.C. Black, B.J. Babin, R.E. Anderson, and R.L. Tatham, Multivariate Data Analysis 5, no. 3, (1998) : 207-219. 96 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 professionalism, socialism and leadership in Pakistan. Similarly, tT-test and Kruskal Wallis Rank test were used to compare the predefined or standard value with respondent’s opinion. Standard value was 4 (agree) implies that respondents fulfil the laid down criteria or near to standard (insignificant difference), it shows that they have relevant tested quality and are admitting this fact.28

Development of the Questionnaire The instrument has been developed in light of the review of existing literature on the subject. Concepts used in the questionnaire have been taken from different studies carried out in past.29 In order to ensure content validity, the correction and reviews were carried out by public policy makers from Ministry of Education. The questionnaire was edited, with addition and deletion of some items, while it was edited and reviewed by three academicians’30 to ensure its clarity, accuracy and authenticity. Likert scale is used to measure items, with the range from 1-5 (where 5 = strongly agree, 4 = agree, 3= neutral, 2= disagree and 1= strongly disagree). Based on the completion of the review of observations by experts, necessary changes were incorporated in the questionnaire and employed for the pilot testing. Generally Alpha value 0.70 or more than this indicates better reliability of items of questionnaire. The Cronbach’s alpha values for all questions is ranged from 0.71 to 0.87; indicating it as good reliability as shown in Table 2.

Sample Stratified Non-probability sampling was chosen to select the sample keeping the heterogeneity31 of our population in consideration. School-going population of Pakistan was divided into three broader categories, namely public sector students, private sector students and madrassa students. These categories are mutually exclusive (särndal et al., 2003) in characteristics like ownership, control, examination system, structure and curriculum. For this study, the sample comprised of 800 respondents from the three education systems discussed above. The proportion of sample was assigned according to their population magnitude, such as 300 (37 per cent) from public schools, 150 (19 per

28 Carl-Erik Särndal, BengtSwensson, and Jan Wretman, Model Assisted Survey Sampling (Springer Science & Business Media, 2003) 29 Ibid. 30 Sohaib Sultan, PhD in Education, AIR University, Shahid Habib, PhD in Governance and Policy, National University of Modern Languages (NUML), Sajid, PhD in Education, National University of Modern Languages. 31 Carol A. Markowski, and Edward P. Markowski, "Conditions for the Effectiveness of a Preliminary Test of Variance," The American Statistician 44, no. 4, (1990): 322-326. Analysis of Different Educational Systems Of Pakistan 97 cent) from private schools, 250 (32 per cent) from Madaris and 100(12 per cent) participants from elite class schools. Then Non-probability random sampling was employed within each stratum for the selection of sample. Sample of religiuos education system was further divided into subgroups (strata) on the basis of different schools of thought, such as Brailvi, Deobandi, Jamat-e-Islami, Ahl-e-Tashi and Salafi . The proportion of sample was assigned on the basis of their proportion in population,32 such as125 students (50 per cent) from Brailvi school of thought, 50 students (20 per cent) from Deobandi and Ahl-e-Tashi schools of thought and 25 students (10 per cent) from Salafi school of thought as shown in Table 1. For the selection of respondents within each school of thought, Non-probability random sampling was employed. Questionnaires were delivered and collected from all respondents either personally or by means of the registered postal services. The participants included graduates in different fields of study and Ulema (religious graduates/clerics). SEM analysis is fairly sensitive to the ratio of sample size. As a result, it is suggested in different studies that 50+ 8m or 300 and above observations should be sufficient for SEM33. In the current study, 800 observations have been availed for SEM analysis.

Table 1: Sample of the Study Respondents Public Private Madrassah Elite class schools Male 200 100 200 50 Female 100 50 50 50 Madrassah Deobandi/Jammat-e-Islami Bralvi Shia Salfi Male 40 100 40 20 Female 10 25 10 5 Findings Reliabilty and Validity of Instrument For researchers, it is important to conduct validity and reliability analysis of the variables and their dimensions prior to the testing in the model. For this research, tests to ensure validity were carried out in three phases which inlcude unidimensionality in fitst phase,, reliability in second phase and and convergent validity at the end. Unidimensionality which was checked by employing Confirmatory Factory Analysis (CFA) and Comparative Fit Index (CFI), is the quality of measuring constrcut measure to know how different elements in a construct are measures similar.34

32 Xiangrui Meng, "Scalable Simple RandomSampling and StratifiedSampling," In International Conference on Machine Learning ( 2013): 531-539. 33 Ibid. 34 Jodie B. Ullman, and Peter M. Bentler, "Structural Equation Modeling," Handbook of Psychology (2003) : 608. 98 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Cronbach alpha value of each variable was calculated to ensure reliablity of scaleSummary of the both elibilty and validity of the instrument have been shown in Table 2 showing that based on these values variables are suitable for the model for further analysis.

Table 2: Summary of Instrument Reliablity and Validity Factor Indicators CFI Factor Loading Cronbach's alpha Curriculum 0.994 0.72 Analytical Development (CR1) 0.526 Synthesis development (CR2) 0.542 Intellectual development (CR3) 0.735 Pedagogy 0.916 0.71 Instructor attributes (PDG1) 0.803 Class Rooms Standard (PDG2) 0.661 Learning Environment (PDG3) 0.768 Examination system 1 0.851 Predictive Validity (ES1) 0.678 Content validity (ES2) 0.636 Criterion Validity (ES3) 0.745 Reliability(ES4) 0.661 Objectivity(ES5) 0.681 Feasibility (ES6) 0.751 Socialism 0.933 0.821 Civic Engagement (SL1) 0.751 Civic Participation (SL2) 0.768 Social connectedness(SL3) 0.84 Professionalism 0.952 0.712 Cognitive Skill (PF1) 0.84 Problem solving skill (PF2) 0.671 Communication Skill (PF3) 0.803 Leadership 1 0.87 Self –Consciousness (LD1) Self-Discipline (LD2) 0.626 Self-Reliance (LD3) 0.852 Self-Esteem (LD4) 0.835 Self-Respect (LD5) 0.681 Possession of Institution (LD6) 0.751 Model Fitness The sample size of the study consists of 800 graduates from different educational systems. To check the fitness of the model, model fit indexes such as GFI, AGFI, NFI, CFI and RMSEA35 were employed and shows the standard values of GFI, AGFI, NFI, CFI and RMSEA (2.89, 0.788, 0.738, 0.910, 0.891, and 0.067 respectively). All values are within the prescribed standard and shows that constructed model is statistical fit.

Findings of Model To test the hypothesis, SEM path analysis was used . Figure 1 and Table 3 shows thte beta coefficient of pedagogy regading leadership, Civic life and professionalism are -0.159, 0.402 and 0.24 respectively significant at 99 per cent confidence level (p<.001). H1 (Hypothesis 1) hypothesized that pegagody significantly influences students'learning and outcome. The SEM results support Hypothesis 1 but this effect in the driving context is negative. All the dimensions of the contribution to the Pedagody are large. Likewise, the curriculum's beta coefficient on leadership, civic life, and professionalism is -0.192, 0.503, and -0.271, respectively, p <.001. H2 assumes that the curriculum has a significant influence on students. The SEM result supports the second hypothesis but this effect is negative for civic and professional life and positive for leadership. All elements of latent varraibles of curriculam leadership, Civic life and professionalism are -0.591, 0.886 and 0.994 respectively significant at 99 per cent

35 Ibid., 534. Analysis of Different Educational Systems Of Pakistan 99 confidence level (p<.001). H3 assumed that exmination system in Pakistan significantly influences students’ effectivenes.

Discussion and Analysis The curricula being followed at Madaris do not include non- theological /modern subjects such as Chemistry, Biology, Computer studies, English etc. Even the subjects like Mathematics, Science, English and Computer are not included in the curricula till secondary level36. Madaris place heavy emphasis on the teachings of Arabic and Persian languages which area necessary requisites to be an Aalim (Cleric or religious scholar)37. Although some Madaris teach subjects offered in other education systems but generally they offer a faith-based curriculum. The national language of Pakistan, Urdu or the regional languages are generally employed as the medium of instruction in Madaris. However, examinations of Madaris are organized by the central boards representing their particular sectarian associations. Madrasa students get their graduation degree of being a cleric after 8 years of Dars-e-Nazami course, which starts after completing the basic education. The degrees are not divided into levels as in formal education i.e. secondary (matriculation), higher secondary (intermediate) and bachelors (graduation). The degree issued to a madrasa student, after successful completion of an eight years long course, is equivalent to masters’ degree in Islamic studies38. They generally take the research work done by their predecessors as final and abiding, without questioning the validity of their studies. This tendency discourages young scholars from analyzing, correlating and using knowledge for research without preconceptions. As a result, Madaris produce a workforce, which is neither skilful nor market-oriented. It causes lack of professionalism in students as shown in Table 5. Students of Madaris can not utilize the option of higher studies in non-theological subjects by getting admission in conventional colleges and universities. Due to this fact, they do not get equal opportunities as availed by students coming from other education systems to pursue their ambitions.39 The post-degree employment options of Madrassah students

36 Calvin Smith, and Kate Worsfold, "WIL Curriculum Design and Student Learning: A Structural Model of their Effects on Student Satisfaction," Studies in Higher Education 39, no. 6 (2014): 1070-1084. 37 Ibid. 38 Syed Usman Shah, S. W. Kausar, and Abdul Wahid Sial, "Need Base Education and Madrassa System: A Comprehensive Analysis of Mainstream Schools of Thought in Pakistan," Merit Research Journal of Education and Review 2 (2014): 19-27. 39 Van Den Wijngaard, Oscar, Simon Beausaert, Mien Segers, and WimGijselaers. "The Development and Validation of an Instrument to Measure Conditions for Social Engagement of Students in Higher Education," Studies in Higher Education 40, no. 4 (2015): 704-720. 100 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 are, therefore, limited.40 They are not able to join the mainstream government and private sector jobs, except as Khateebs and Imams.41 Madaris are mostly charitable institutions and almost all of them depend on charity for their financial expenditures. They have their designated charity collectors who go door to door to collect money. Consequently, Madrassah associates are more progressive in terms of civic engagement, political participation and social connectedness when compared with other citizens of the society.42 As Madaris are run on the basis of charity, it automatically develops a strong relationship between civil society and these institutions. Similarly, for public schools, the curriculum is mostly driven by the state mandated objectives and Common Core State Standards. Curricula being followed in the government school system is based on non- theological/modern subjects such as Chemistry, Biology, Computer, English etc. and the basic subjects such as mathematics, science and computer studies are also included in the curricula of government schools system. In addition, social sciences and humanities subjects such as sociology, business studies, religious studies, governance, and arts and literature are not included in the curricula of government school system at secondary level. There are only 9 per cent students in Pakistan those could proceede to or enrolled in tertiary education which is very low as compared to its neighbouring countires.43 Similarly, government schools system has a typical system of class room management and organization. The assessment and evaluation system being followed at public schools is also out dated.44 No effort is being made to develop new assessment skills and strategies to make the learning more effective. Teachers rarely use modern motivational techniques to help students perform better in studies rather they prefer using corporeal punishment to get the desired results.45 Teachers hardly interact with the parents to involve them

40 Wei Wei, David DeBrot, and Carol Witney, "The Role of Leadership in Small Scale Educational Change," Asia Pacific Journal of Education 35, no. 1 (2015): 40-54. 41 Peter K. McGregor, Jason Birt, Kelly Haynes, Ruth J. Martin, Lawrence J. Moores, Nicola J. Morris, Brender Willmott, and Andrew C. Smart. "Student Engagement and Enhancement through Research and Scholarship," Higher Education Skills and Work-Based Learning 5, no. 1 (2015): 86-94. 42 Kevin R. McClure, "Madrasas and Pakistan's Education Agenda: Western Media Misrepresentation and Policy Recommendations," International Journal of Educational Development 29, no. 4 (2009): 334-341. 43 R. Hunter, Education System Profiles, World Education News Reviews, February 2020, https://wenr.wes.org/2020/02/education-in-pakistan 44 Ibid. 45 Catherine McCauley-Smith, Sharon J. Williams, Anne Clare Gillon, and Ashley Braganza, "Making Sense of Leadership Development: Developing a Analysis of Different Educational Systems Of Pakistan 101 actively in the development and learning of students. Parents are often unaware of the progress of their children. Very few teachers use teaching aids. Basic modern equipment necessary for contemporary pedagogical practices is still not available in most of the teaching institutions in the public sector. Scarcity of resources along with untrained human capital is also a major impediment in the way of attaining educational excellence and desired output. In cases of limited availability of resources, the impact is less significant. Discussions, demonstrations, presentations, simulations, tutorials, seminars, or any other tool of modern pedagogy are not used as methods of teaching. In many instances, Urdu and the regional languages are generally the medium of instruction.46 In public schools, heavy emphasis is laid on parroting and learning the text books by heart. Examination system followed in the public sector is old and outdated which only emphasizes getting a first class degree instead of promoting creative thinking and analytical learning. Academic achievement and excellence is not the sole objective of education. The real objective of imparting education is to develop cognitive skills and creative thinking of the students but the current examination structure forces the students to learn the lessons by heart to get first class degrees. As a consequence, students graduating from the public sector schools seldom get top-tier jobs in the job market. One the other hand, there are only 1522 vocational institutes in Pakistan. The enrollment capacity of these institutes is only 314,188 students per year whereas around 12.4 million people need vocational training every year.47 To meet this demand, the best possible way is to make vocational education a part of curriculum at matric and secondary levels. A sincere intention is required to take steps for developing the communication, vocational and computer skills of students. The children from poor segments of Pakistan go to school with a great hope for advancement and improvement of the quality of their life but their hopes are rarely fulfilled as the curricula being followed in public schools fail to equip them for mainstream professions and leadership roles. The poor segments of the society remain underprivileged which further fuels fractioning, frustration and conflict in the society.48 On the other hand, the private educational institutions follow updated and advanced educational courses which enrich students’ learning capabilities, making them aware of the challenges of modern technological era and the global affairs. Extra-curricular activities are

Community of Education Leaders," Studies in Higher Education 40, no. 2 (2015): 311-328. 46 Ibid. 47 Shahid Siddiqui, Rethinking Education in Pakistan: Perceptions, Practices, and Possibilities. 48 Angelito Calma, "Leadership in Higher Education: Examining the Narratives of Research Managers from Multiple Lenses," Asia Pacific Journal of Education 35, no. 1 (2015): 55-68. 102 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 encouraged to boost up the mental and creative capability of students. Private schools have more facilities than public schools. Secondly private schools have a rich and well-designed curriculum as compared to public schools.49 The admission criteria of private schools is quite different from public schools as public schools cannot deny admission to any child whereas there are certain pre- requisites and assessment procedures followed for a child desiring to get admitted to the private schools. In Pakistan, private schools are considered more prestigious and reputable than government sector academic institutions. Private schools have relatively better physical infrastructure with better teaching standards, which include structured teaching methodologies, and use of audio-visual aids to enhance learning of their students. Teachers at private schools engender a better learning environment for their students, encouraging them to discuss topics in the curriculum as well as extra-curricular matters.50 They also encourage students to participate in class discussions, presentations, and other valuable activities. The teachers also use friendly teaching techniques to groom the potential of the students. In private schools, the management categorizes students into different categories, and then arranges makeup classes for the weaker students. They lay emphasis on participation and activity-based learning. Students are encouraged to practice speaking English as the medium of communication in classrooms right from kindergarten which helps them to attain more fluency in English language, improve their communication, and aids in their intellectual growth as well. Consequently, students learn to rely more on cognitive skills and logical thinking rather than rote learning, and are involved in practical work competencies and effective communication skills as shown in Table 5. Students from private schools have skills such as the ability to do intellectual work, internal locus of control in decision- making, core competencies regarding field work, and knowing how to interact and deal with others in normal and special course situations.

49 Ray R. Buss, Ron Zambo, Debby Zambo and Tiffany R. Williams, "Developing Researching Professionals in an EDD Program: From Learners and Leaders to Scholarly and Influential Practitioners," Higher Education, Skills and Work- based Learning 4, no. 2 (2014): 137-160. 50 Ibid. Analysis of Different Educational Systems Of Pakistan 103

Figure 1: Model of Education System and its Impact On Student’s Effectiveness

Table 3: Regression Weights of All Variables and their Dimensions Varriables and Dimensions Std.Weight S.E. C.R. P Leadership <--- Exam -0.591 0.06 -7.771 *** Leadership <--- Pedagogy -0.159 0.033 -3.052 0.002 Professionalism <--- Pedagogy 0.402 0.043 7.45 *** Socialism <--- Pedagogy 0.24 0.037 4.928 *** Professionalism <--- Curriculam -0.192 0.026 -4.364 *** Leadership <--- Curriculam 0.503 0.039 6.159 *** Socialism <--- Curriculam -0.271 0.028 -5.427 *** Socialism <--- Exam 0.886 0.065 12.853 *** Professionalism <--- Exam 0.994 0.073 13.407 *** ES6 <--- Exam 0.601 ES5 <--- Exam 0.684 0.075 14.851 *** ES4 <--- Exam 0.474 0.069 11.225 *** ES3 <--- Exam -0.194 0.093 -4.955 *** ES2 <--- Exam 0.588 0.07 13.326 *** ES1 <--- Exam 0.66 0.092 14.486 *** CR3 <--- Curriculam 0.849 CR2 <--- Curriculam 0.378 0.052 7.113 *** CR1 <--- Curriculam -0.393 0.048 -7.254 *** PDG1 <--- Pedagogy 0.706 PDG2 <--- Pedagogy 0.584 0.091 9.137 *** PDG3 <--- Pedagogy 0.428 0.085 8.17 *** LD1 <--- Leadership 0.4 LD2 <--- Leadership -0.445 0.137 -7.61 *** LD3 <--- Leadership -0.68 0.161 -8.817 *** LD4 <--- Leadership 0.273 0.114 5.606 *** LD5 <--- Leadership 0.13 0.099 2.991 0.003 LD6 <--- Leadership -0.066 0.101 -1.558 0.119 SL1 <--- Socialism 0.605 SL2 <--- Socialism 0.555 0.079 12.583 *** SL3 <--- Socialism 0.503 0.082 11.643 *** PF3 <--- Professionalism 0.57 PF2 <--- Professionalism 0.522 0.062 12.727 *** PF1 <--- Professionalism 0.522 0.064 12.717 *** 104 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Table 4: Result of One Sample T-test and Kruskalwalis Rank Test Public Private Madrassah Indicators Mean-Dif Positive % Negative % Mean-Dif Positive % Negative % Mean-Dif Positive % Negative % Socialism Civic Engagement -.580 34 66* -.133 45 55** -.453 23 77* Civic Participation -.533 45 55* -.373 33 67* -.460 37 63* Social connectedness -.284 54 46* -.167 43 57 -.127 21 89 Professionalism Cognitive Skill -.147 23 77 -.300 55 45* -.167 19 81 Problem solving skill -.787 65 35** -.193 28 72 -.953 64 36 ** Communication Skill -.927 82 18** .020 21 89 -.780 39 61** Leadership Self –Consciousness -.307 76 24* -.020 23 67 -.047 43 57 Self-Discipline -.395 45 55* -.060 18 82 -.333 66 34** Self-Reliance -.340 61 29* -.080 36 64 .467 67 23** Self-Esteem -.180 59 41 .040 23 77 -.273 56 44 Self-Respect .013 33 67 -.207 43 57* -.147 23 77 Possession of Institution -.080 47 53 .027 33 76 .933 78 22** **,*. Difference is significant at the 0.01 and 0.05 level (2-tailed) on the basis of standard value 4 (agree) Conclusion This study revolves around analyzing the extent to which different education systems in Pakistan impact the students’ outcome in terms of professionalism, good citizenship and having qualities of visionary leaders. This study is based on the theory of Structural Influences Behaviour. The researcher collected data from eight hundred graduates of different educational systems in Pakistan such as Madaris, and public and private schools by applying stratified random proportionate sampling technique. Structural Equation Modeling, one sample T-test and Kruskal Wallis rank test were applied as statistical techniques. The results of the study indicate that curricula, pedagogical practices and examination systems significantly impact the professionalism, social life and qualities of leadership in the students. Madrassah education system has sect-specific curricula, following the traditional methods of pedagogy (including corporal punishment) and outdated examination system which is based on the memorization of ideas instead of critical thinking. As a consequence, students of Madaris lag behind others in areas like professionalism and leadership skills. Therefore, curricula, pedagogy and examination system of Madaris should be reformed in accordance with international standards and local market requirements. Similarly, public school system has outdated curricula (based on state-mandated objectives), with old methods of pedagogy, focusing more on cramming lessons instead of the critical, synthesis and cognitive skills necessary for intellectual development of the students. The traditional examination system followed in the public schools does not have capacity to inculcate professionalism, enhance efficiency in social life and build leadership qualities. Pakistan should improve the quality of education offered to the students by reforming the existing curricula and examination system in accordance with the international standards. Analysis of Different Educational Systems Of Pakistan 105

The private school system has an international standard curriculum, up-to-date pedagogical practices and effective examination system; focusing more on creativity instead of memorization of ideas but the curricula being followed in private school system do not include extracurricular activities. Due to this, the social life of the students of private school system is quite limited and revolves around specific communities. So, it is imperative for private schools to include sports and political activities in their curriculum. It is concluded that three distinct types of education systems are imparting education in Pakistan. These include Madaris, public schools and private schools. They adopt different languages including Arabic, Urdu and English respectively as means of instruction. Three classes of Pakistani society from poor to elite ones pass through these systems of education and as a result, each institution produces a particular class of society. As there is difference in the methods, means of instruction, learner groups and teaching goals employed by different school systems, so is the difference in the output of the students produced by each system.51

51 Dr. Mohammad Reza Takhsheed, interview by Mehreen Bibi, February 23, 2019, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran. 106 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

POST- SOLEIMANI US-IRAN TENSIONS: CONSEQUENCES AND RESPONSES

Muhammad Saleem Mazhar, Naheed S. Goraya & Samee Ozair Khan

Abstract After the killing of most powerful Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, in US drone strike in Iraq on January 3, 2020, the tensions in the Middle East are growing. Tehran retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at US troops stationed in Iraq. The General’s death attracted a lot of concerns from the world as global economy gets directly affected by Middle Eastern tensions. The US forces based in Qatar, Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan surround almost all of Iran. The situation remains volatile and lot depends on how Iran responds? Any prospect of war would unleash sufferings across the region. This study investigates the challenges posed by the killing of Qassem Soleimani and the role that regional politics and sectarian fault-lines may play in exacerbating the problems. It also discusses the US approach regarding regime change and Pakistan’s place in the given context and suggests that Islamabad should pursue a balanced approach that would serve its geopolitical interests as well as domestic stability.

Keywords: Iran, US, Iraq, NPT, WMD, JCPOA, Daesh, Soleimani, IRGC-QF, FATF

Introduction he killing of General Soleimani, the Commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force (IRGC-QF), has brought volatility to the region, as evident from the media coverage T attracted by this event. US presence in Iraq, Afghanistan and its naval fleet in Persian Gulf make it proximate to the Middle Eastern region and shape its security dynamics. Iran on the other hand is a significant

 Pro-Vice Chancellor, University of the Punjab, Lahore. Email: [email protected]  Assistant Professor at Centre for South Asian Studies (CSAS), University of the Punjab, Lahore. Email: [email protected]  Associate Professor, Punjab University Law College, University of the Punjab, Lahore. Email: [email protected] Post-Soleimani US-Iran Tensions 107 regional actor having sway from Iraq to Sudan. Both countries are engaged in an enduring hostility since Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979. The rising specter of Iran’s growing influence and power in the region is deepening this hostile relationship that could have improved after the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015. The US-Iran relations are so deeply interlinked in the Middle East’s security that these cannot be analysed in isolation.1 The US has interfered with Iran for more than 50 years and that bitter history continues to haunt their future too.2 The geopolitical position of Iran in the fluctuating regional security environment, the rise of “Islamic State” and the nuclear deal had increased the prospects for a détente between Iran and the US. This article analyses the deteriorating US-Iran ties in the wake of killing of General Soleimani and how the situation can affect the regional security? It also suggests that Pakistan should stay neutral as choosing sides will not affect its relations with US and Saudi Arabia but also deepen sectarian divides in the country.

The History of US-Iran Conflictual Relations Cultural behaviours, ideological goals, demographic features, and religious persuasions are all fundamental factors in shaping how a country perceives its environment and its place within its neighbourhood.3 Given this understanding, parallels between Iran and the US are as striking as the influence they seek vis-a-vis each other and in the world around them. Both are imperial powers, in cultural sense, if not in a political one. Iranian youth is greatly influenced by the imagery and the culture of the West. At the same time, people in the West enjoy the artifacts of Persian culture, be the carpets, handicrafts or poetry. In the US, for instance, one of the most widely read Persian poet is the Persian medieval mystic Jalalud-din-Rumi.4 The US has relished a formal commercial presence in Iran since 1856 with the signing of a treaty, however not political, as Iran laid beyond US immediate political vision.5 Over 50, 000 US troops were embedded in Iranian military, under the rule of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi (1941-1979). Apparently, it was meant to safeguard the region from communist aggression. Indeed those troops protected the US’ oil and

1 Nazir Hussain, “US-Iran Relations: Issues, Challenges and Prospects,” Policy Perspectives 12 (2015): 29-47. 2 Reese Elrich, The Iran Agenda Today: The Real Story Inside Ran and What’s Wrong with the US Policy, (Routledge, 2009), 45-46, 85, 207. 3 Ray Takeyh, Hidden Iran: Paradox and Power in the Islamic Republic (New York: Times Books, 2006), 59. 4 Ali M. Ansari, The Failure of American Foreign Policy and the Next Great Conflict in the Middle East: Confronting Iran ( New York: Basic Books, 2006), 234. 5 Ibid. 15. 108 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 geo-political interests and tried to sustain Shah’s rule.6 The British historian Malcolm Yapp hints towards the US presence in the geo-political dynamics of South-West Asia during the 19th century as a countervailing force to balance the Soviet pressures. However, it remained the focus of American agenda until the oil was discovered in Iran.7 The US security interests gained momentum in August 1941 when Iran looked to US as a natural ally because of Anglo-Soviet invasion. US interest towards Iran was overly defensive until mid-1943.8 Hussain writes:

The structurally conflictual relations of US-Iran involves many historic events like US-hostage crisis, freezing of Iranian assets and diverse opinions on the security architecture of the Middle East and apart from those, domestic politics in both countries and the US regional allies, especially Israel and Saudi Arabia are other major challenges. However both countries have convergence of interest on many areas like regional peace process, terrorism and most significantly Iranian nuclear controversy lasts to influence and cast shadows on the bilateral relations.9

Throughout the history, US foreign policy towards Middle East has revolved around the issues like: containment of Soviet Union; security of the oil route and later flow of petro dollars to the US and its allies; and preservation of the state of Israel. Prior to 1979, the US and Israel used Iran as an economic and military force to combat Arab nationalism. After 1979 revolution, Iran left the US sphere of influence and in due course formed new alliances with the governments in Iraq, Lebanon and Syria that directly challenged the US supremacy.10 The nervy and inconsistent relations between US and Iran have been the same since 1979. Iran has been under unilateral sanctions by the US policy makers, together with other counter-productive policies. For decades, the US has listed Iran amongst the terrorism sponsoring states. When Iran-Iraq war was over, the EU and Iran tried to develop critical dialogues to end confrontation between both countries for

6 Reese Elrich, The Iran Agenda Today: The Real Story Inside Ran and What’s Wrong with the US Policy. 7 Malcolm Yapp, The History of the Persian Gulf: The Nineteenth and the Twentieth Century’s in the Persian Gulf States: A General Survey, (Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press, 1980), 41-42. 8 Richard W. Cotham, “The United States. Iran and the Cold War,” Iranian Studies, no. 3 (Winter, 1970), 3-4. 9 Nazir Hussain, “US-Iran Relations: Issues, Challenges and Prospects”. 10 Reese Elrich, The Iran Agenda Today: The Real Story Inside Ran and What’s Wrong with the US Policy. Post-Soleimani US-Iran Tensions 109 developing economic relations. There have been successes like negotiations between Iran and 3 European countries over Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT).11 Iran signed Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT)12 the Chemical Weapon Convention (CWC)13 and the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC)14 but the US continued to allege that Iran is engaged in acquiring Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) and the means to deliver them.15 While the US has been claiming that Iran is acquiring nuclear weapons, the international inspectors and the US military leaders stated that it was conforming to the requirements under the agreement. Developments in the recent past, display a potential for escalating the tensions between Iran and USA. These include the following:

1. Declaring IRGC as FTO -The US Administration has for the first time declared the official military force Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO).16 2. Ending of US Sanctions about Purchase of Iranian Oil - The administration ended US sanctions exception for any country to buy Iranian oil so that Iranian economy fails.17

11 The main objective of the Treaty is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy and to further the goal of achieving nuclear disarmament. 12 The Treaty bans all nuclear explosions- everywhere by everyone. The Treaty was negotiated at the conference on Disarmament in Geneva and adopted by the United Nations General Assembly in 1996. 13 The Convention aims to eliminate an entire category of weapons of mass destruction by prohibiting the development, production, acquisition, stockpiling, retention, transfer or use of chemical weapons by States Parties. States Parties, in turn, must take the steps necessary to enforce that prohibition in respect of persons (natural or legal) within their jurisdiction. 14 The Biological Weapons Convention,(BWC), or Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention, (BTWC) was the first multilateral disarmament treaty banning the production of an entire category of weapons. It was signed on April 10, 1972. 15 Reza Simbar, “Iran and the US: Engagement or Confrontation,” Journal of International and Area Studies, Vol. 13, no. 1 (June 2006), 73-87. 16 "Statement from the President on the Designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a Foreign Terrorist Organization,” U.S. Department of State, April 8, 2019, https://2017-2021-translations.state.gov/ 2019/04/08/statement-from-the-president-on-the-designation-of-the- islamic-revolutionary-guard-corps-as-a-foreign-terrorist- organization/index.html. 110 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

3. Ending of 2 Waivers under IFCP Act - The US administration on May 3, 2019 ended 2 of the 7 waivers under the Iran Freedom and Counter Proliferation Act (IFCA, P.L. 112-2398).18 4. Sending Bomber Task Force to the Persian Gulf Region- The US administration had some reports on May 3, 2019 that Iran is planning to attack US installations and therefore, announced to expedite its earlier plan about the deployment of US Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group and sending a bomber task force to the Persian Gulf Region.19 5. Foreign Military Sale and Export Licenses for Direct Commercial Sales of Defence Articles - The Congress was notified, on May 24, 2019 about immediate foreign military sales and proposed export licenses for direct commercial sales of defense articles.20 Trump repeatedly showed the desire for revising the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)21 that encircles not only the nuclear issues but also Iran’s Ballistic Missile program and Iran’s support for regional and armed factions. However, no talks were initiated. The killing of Soleimani further reduces the chances for such talks. The US has long been making efforts to increase economic pressure on Iran to dwindle it strategically and force Tehran to negotiate a broader resolution

17 “Advancing the U.S. Maximum Pressure Campaign On Iran,” U.S. Department of State, April 22, 2019, http://www.state.gov/advancing-the-u-s-maximum- pressure-campaign-on-iran/ 18 Letter from Mary Elizabeth Taylor, Assistant Secretary of State for legislative Affairs to Senator James Risch, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, May 3, 2019. 19 https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statementrs/statement-national- security-advisor-ambassador-john-bolton-2/. 20 Kenneth Katzman, Kathleen J. Mclnnis & Clayton Thomas, “ US- Iran Conflict and Implications for US Policy,” Congressional Research Service, (January 2020), https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/R45795.pdf. 21 The agreement with five annexes was reached by Iran and the P5+1 (China France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) on July 14, 2015. It was endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2231, adopted on July 20, 2015. Iran’s compliance with the nuclear-related provisions of the JCPOA will be verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) according to certain requirements set forth in the agreement. On May 8, 2018, President Trump announced that the US would withdraw from the JCPOA and reinstate U.S. nuclear sanctions on the Iranian regime. Post-Soleimani US-Iran Tensions 111 over US-Iran differences through the Executive Orders 1387122, 1387623, and 1322424 The analysts remain uncertain about evaluating the situation when it comes to what Trump wanted with Iran as he withdrew from the Nuclear Accord of 2015 and initiated what he termed as “Maximum Pressure.”25 In response to that Iran came up with ‘Maximum Resistance’. Iran reduced its compliance with the provision of JCPOA. This maximum pressure is not likely to affect Iran’s economy. It is pretty hard to analyze what the US wanted from Iran and henceforth, it opened a lot of space for miscalculations. In fact, the US focuses more on Iran’s regional influence and proxy forces. It wants Iran to detach itself from its proxies.

The Killing of General Soleimani: Legality Versus Real-politick The killing of Iranian General took place on Iraqi soil, breaching the country’s sovereignty. The US could have taken another course of action but it chose the negative path, violating the International law and the UN Charter. The Iranian General was on American Radar since Bush and Obama times but was attacked only now and not before. He could have been killed in summer 2019 when US Drone was hit by the Iranians. There are few interesting answers to why he was killed only now. Some publications reveal that he was an instrument for achieving peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia which eventually goes down to the sales of weapons. The Iranian General was travelling to Iraq carrying a message from Saudi Arabian Monarchy and there were undercurrents of slowing down the tension process. Just as before getting into the elections of second term, Obama killed Osama bin Laden, Trump also needed a trophy before the second term’s campaign could start. Osama was declared a global terrorist

22 Imposing Sanctions With Respect to the Iron, Steel, Aluminum, and Copper Sectors of Iran. 23 On June 24, 2019, U.S. President Donald Trump signed Executive Order 13876, in which the assets of the Office of the Supreme Leader of Iran, along with Ali Khamenei, are frozen following the incident near the Gulf of Oman days prior. 24 President Bush signed Executive Order 13224 on September 23, 2001. Executive Order 13224 gives the U.S. Government a powerful tool to impede terrorist funding and is part of our national commitment to lead the international effort to bring a halt to the evil of terrorist activity. 25 Bolton was the key architect of Trump's "maximum pressure" strategy against Iran ; “Trump's 'Maximum Pressure' Strategy on Iran did not Fail,” AlJazeera, September 16, 2019, https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/trump- maximum-pressure-strategy-iran-fail-190916092330241.html 112 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 and now interestingly Soleimani “was” killed as a terrorist and a legitimate target for Americans to assassinate. Trump administration itself faced criticism in the US. International and the US media affirm that in the past, the US blamed Iraq and its allies about Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) and attacked her. Strange enough, after many years, the super power claimed that Iraq was not found in possession of any such weapons. Therefore it is important to know whether the US rationale behind attacking the General is right or not, amidst the growing tensions between both countries. The core question arises over the legality of US actions in this context. The US administration has reasoned that Soleimani was responsible for the unprovoked attacks on American forces in Iraq, at the request of Iraqi government. But the question arises about its legal implications. “The pre- emptive self-defence is never a legal justification for assassination. The relevant law is the UN Charter which defines self-defence as a right to respond to an actual and significant armed attack.”26 The logic/aim of such moves is simpler to understand when viewed from the lens of Real-politick as it is no different in this case from that of Iraq’s invasion. The war in Iraq was simply about who gets to gain influence in Iraqi oil fields and who gets to retain influence in Iraqi government. The US is not leaving anytime soon from Iraq. The recent parliamentary resolution was vague in asking US to pull its troops without setting any dates or conditions. The dilemma in Iraqi government is that the Iraqi government wants the US to stay there, to provide them security and keep feeding them dollars which is another problem. On the other hand, they also want to force their close ally status with Iran. Under these circumstances, there is a conundrum in Iraq and the dilemma is who gets to keep influence in Iraq that would continue to extend towards Pakistan, if there is a misadventure in Iran. The oil factor supports US strategy and foreign policy. Even today the US does not have any coherent policy towards Iran and this is all the more conspicuous seeing Iran’s significance for the political stability and economic prosperity of the global community. Notwithstanding appearances, the prominence is not reliant on its alleged nuclear goals, but more on fundamental geopolitical and historical realities. Iran has the second largest oil reserves in the world, larger than those of Iraq and second only to those of Saudi Arabia. Given the significance of Persian Gulf in the world oil market, its position will get reinforced with time.27 “” But it is interesting to note what happened in the oil market in US? After Shale’

26 Sean D. Murphy, “The Doctrine of Preemptive Self-Defense,” Villanova Law Review Vol. 50, Issue 3 (2005): 699, https://digitalcommons.law.villanova.edu/cgi/viewcontent. cgi?article=1215&context=vlr 27 Ali M. Ansari, The Failure of American Foreign Policy and the Next Great Conflict in the Middle East: Confronting Iran, 2. Post-Soleimani US-Iran Tensions 113 discovery, US is not dependent upon Middle Eastern for oil; if the oil prices go up, the US will sell its own shale.28 If oil prices go down, the shale will not sell - eventually, the price of economic revival (depending on selling of shale oil and gas), will increase. Therefore, it is in the interest of US that Iran, Iraq and Middle East remain on fire so that shale keeps selling. Heightening of the regional tension also helps the US as it forces Saudi Arabia once again to look towards it. This enables the US to send arms to these states and keep Middle East dependent and under pressure. If one looks at US threat to Iran, like Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran has provided a firing range, and a battle ground for newly invented weapons. Whatever US has done in Afghanistan, it is going to do in Iran as well. Consequently, the US military industry needs a battleground once again. However, it is an open secret that the presence of US troops in Middle East has generated more harm than peace, since it is embedded within a broader design.

The Post-Killing Scenario: Consequences and Options In the aftermath of the killing, Iran responded saying that it will retaliate by attacking the military bases of US while the statement of Iraqi Prime Minister made the American attack more controversial. Iraq gave a message to US on January 5, 2020, after Iraqi Parliament passed a resolution to send back the foreign soldiers from Iraq. This resolution demanded that, since the operation against Daesh29 has been successful, the Iraqi government may take back its request from International Coalition to help it against Daesh. Therefore all foreign soldiers may be sent back and not allowed to use Iraqi land and domain. It was also made clear that a complaint may be lodged in the United Nations against US for breaching the intactness and sovereignty of Iraq. However, American departure, if it happens, may take some time because of already existing political chaos in Iraq. Many analysts believe that US presence today in Iraq is more fragile than what was before this crisis. It is an obvious fact that even the super power does not have the luxury to go and intervene in any country. Looking at 19 years in Afghanistan with $1 trillion down the road is a total loss. US has spent over $ 6 trillion in wars for almost 30 years. Today, people have started raising

28 Shale oil is an unconventional oil produced from oil shale rock fragments by pyrolysis, hydrogenation, or thermal dissolution. These processes convert the organic matter within the rock (kerogen) into synthetic oil and gas. 29 The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) officially known as the Islamic State (IS) and also known by its Arabic-language acronym DAESH. 114 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 questions in the US Congress and this had been a big question during 2020 US Presidential election campaign. Iran’s Response Iran, a linchpin state of the region,30 lying at the geo-strategic position between the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea sits on approximately 10 percent of world’s proven oil supplies and has the second largest amount of natural gas.31 Even if Iran had no oil no gas of its own, this simple geo-political reality would make it hard to overlook.32 Prior to 1979, the US, British and French oil corporations had contracts to develop, pump and distribute the Iranian oil. After 1979, Iran’s nationalized oil company was willing to continue business with US firms but on the terms, of it being more promising for Iran. But the US oil companies pulled out of Iran on political and economic grounds.33Since then, Iran is considered the biggest threat to the US and its allies in the Middle Eastern region, there are few theories about Iran’s reaction. Iran has its proxies throughout the region and given its network in Europe, Latin America, and elsewhere the US response option might be limited.34 But in the current situation, Iran can be more aggressive and may use its missiles with full capability, keeping in view its past attacks which have been very successful. It is not necessary that the repercussions of Soleimani’s killing will remain limited to Iraq only. If Iran requests Hizbullah, it can become active too and can attack US targets in Lebanon. Hizbullah is not limited to Lebanon only but its proxies are present in all of Middle East and can hit US’ assets. The analysts say that Iran has a full- fledged cyber-war potential but the fact is that the Iranians have outstretched themselves too far. These interventions in other countries are the luxuries of the super power and even those are limited. When US invaded Iraq and Kuwait, the situation was a little different. As far as Iran is concerned, it has a different war game- but how? One fundamental point

30 Ali M. Ansari, The Failure of American Foreign Policy and the Next Great Conflict in the Middle East: Confronting Iran, 3. 31 It has oil reserves of 133 billion barrels and natural gas reserves of 26.6 trillion cubic meters. However the estimates vary, depending on how figures are computed ; Reese Elrich, The Iran Agenda Today: The Real Story Inside Ran and What’s Wrong with the US Policy, 5. 32 Ali M. Ansari, The Failure of American Foreign Policy and the Next Great Conflict in the Middle East: Confronting Iran, 3. 33 Reese Elrich, The Iran Agenda Today: The Real Story Inside Ran and What’s Wrong with the US Policy 45. 34 Kenneth Katzman, Kathleen J, Mclnnis & Clayton Thomas,“ US- Iran Conflict and Implications for US Policy,” Congressional Research Service (January 2020), https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/R45795.pdf. Post-Soleimani US-Iran Tensions 115 is that the Iranian revolution’s history is very much remembered and cherished in the nation’s living memory; somehow the impact of Iranian revolution has not been truly realized. Symbolically, the way people gathered in Soleimani’s funeral, one cannot expect it another Arab country, kingship or UAE etc. The Problem of Proxies and Sectarian Fault-lines in Regional Politics This incident is bound to bring serious and inevitable implications for the region. The Arab world, Middle East and the world at large will confront the repercussions and losses – mainly due to the role of proxies. Kausch writes that “Proxy connections between non-state competitors and their external state patrons in the Middle East are a reason that can halt regional stability as non-state proxies grow into both an instrument and a pivotal factor in determining the inter-state rivalry between regional powers. Consequently, non-state actors with regional influence must gradually be forced into policy decisions in military, diplomatic and legal terms.”35 Proxy wars in the Middle East are endowing non-state actors. In an ostensibly inflexible drape of domestic, regional and global power struggles; major global powers such as Russia and the United States, as well as regional powers such as Iran and Saudi Arabia, are challenging each other in arenas beyond their own zones. This is done by cooperating with non-state local forces. Non-state actors, thus, are becoming progressively conclusive in determining not only intra-state but also inter- state power struggles. While discussing non-state actors, the most important subject is that who manipulates and for what purpose? Otherwise merely an attack cannot trigger something at such a massive level. Non-state actors are anticipated to linger as a striking feature of the regional landscape into the distant future, and in some countries could well lead power politics for some time—particularly the countries that have gone through political transformations, such as Libya, Afghanistan and Yemen.36 The sectarian fault-lines have surfaced dramatically in Iraqi politics over tie and are still there. Iraq is vulnerable on that score and how much role they play in regional politics, everyone forgets - it has spread to Syria. After the US invasion of Iraq and the bombing of Al Askari Mosque, the situation expounded the sectarian divisions which existed even during the days of British rule, when before the World War II, half of

35 Kristina Kausch, “ State and Non-State Alliances in the Middle East,” Italian Journal of International Affairs, 52 no. 3, (July 2017). 36 Hassan Hassan, “ The Middle Eastern Problem Soleimani Figured Out,” Politico, January 12, 2020, https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/01/ 12/iran-middle- eastern-problem-soleimani-figured-out-097350. 116 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 the Iran was under Red Army and the other half was under American and Britain forces. About 20-25 years back, the Western media never mentioned Sunni Islam and Shites Islam; this is a fault line which West has exploited. In the so called Shite crescent between Iraq-Iran, Iraq-Syria and Lebanon, it is a fact of life that there is a sectarian fault line, exploited by the US and on the larger scale it is exploited between Saudi Arabia and Iran. If US remains in Middle East and those places, they will be a part of problem rather than part of solution. In this regard, the entire region and the neighboring countries can play a very important role because there will be a spillover effect of both the proxies and sectarian fault-lines on them too. For example, refugee influx and sectarian issues have already impacted Pakistan for long. Around 3 million Afghan refugees are still in Pakistan and they have not returned back in last two decades. The Iranian refugees coming in sight can be foreseen. Therefore a whole new lot of problems are expected, for which collective efforts need to be made at regional level. The Global Dimension: Sino-Russian Factor in the US-Iran Rivalry Though Russia and China have few tensions but being enemy’s enemy brings them closer as friends. Though some analysts shun the significance and sustainability of the liaison, Thomas Joscelyn of the Foundation for Defense of Democracy said that, “the Xi-Putin partnership is questionably the most precarious bond on the planet at the moment.”37 Russia signifies the fundamental contemporary and future strategic challenge to the United States, whereas the Chinese are no more invulnerable than anyone else from the direct effects of the escalation between the US and Iran. However, they could transpire as major longer- term recipients since China is already booming in economic sector. China’s Middle East approach, at least for now, is purely transactional. The Chinese are equipped to offer money, ranging from oil purchases or investment to the infrastructure projects. Russian, Iranian and Chinese state-sponsored coverage of the US-China trade war is a demonstration of narrative connection between these three nations. Coverage of the trade war by all three countries is highly critical of the US, albeit typically through varying lenses — China from a mainly economic perspective, Russia from a political perspective, and Iran through both. One place

37 Dough Bandow, “Shy American Should Fear a Russia- China Alliance,” CATO Institute, September 9, 2020, https://www.cato.org/publications/ commentary/why-america-should-fear-russia-china-alliance. Post-Soleimani US-Iran Tensions 117 where the three countries’ content most heavily overlaps, however, is in the context of the trade war and the US elections.38 The major powers must together join hands and come up with some positive solution to the unfolding volatile situation. It is hoped that reasoned rationality may overcome slogans and fanaticism. The world should make efforts to avert war and ensure peace in the Middle East. So far China and Russia have maintained a neutral position while condemning it. Both powers along with Pakistan can play an important role. However, Islamabad is aligned with the US and Saudi Arabia and given the economic difficulties its choices are constrained. Pakistan needs to stay neutral in this conflict. As a friend of UAE and Saudi Arabia, the small Gulf Countries are very much vulnerable. If UAE and Saudi Arabia do not support US and remain neutral that would be very wise. But in this whole game, the most vulnerable country is Israel. The US needs to avoid playing with fire. If the situation aggravates, it might wrap up everything, even the European countries. So primarily, it can be believed that the killing of General Soleimani is a part of a larger deal of damaging the prospect of peace in the region. P5+1 and the Prospects for Regime Change The regime change39 had been the name of the game since long. It is a sobering fact that every US President since the Islamic Revolution has been could not deal effectively with the question of Iran.40 US hostility towards Iran revolves around geo-politics, oil and military presence. In

38 Collins Alexander, “Russia, Iran and China on the US-China Trade War,” Foreign Policy Research Institute, April 28, 2020, https://www.fpri.org/ fie/russia-iran-china-trade-war/. 39 In pursuance of its expansionist and hegemonic agenda, the US has been in the business of regime change in foreign countries for a long time. As the US economic and military power grew over the past two centuries, so did its ambitions. Monroe Doctrine, declared by US President James Monroe in December, 1823, was an initial indication of the US hegemonic designs in the Western Hemisphere. After its emergence as a world power at the end of the19th century, the US gave a broader interpretation to the Monroe Doctrine to assert that the Western Hemisphere was its exclusive sphere of influence. President Theodore Roosevelt further expanded the scope of the Doctrine in 1904 through the Roosevelt Corollary which stated that in cases of flagrant and chronic wrongdoing by a Latin American country, the US could intervene in that country’s internal affairs ; Javid Husain, “US and Regime Change,” The Nation, May 28 2019, https://nation.com.pk/28-May-2019/us-and-regime- change. 40 Ali M. Ansari, The Failure of American Foreign Policy and the Next Great Conflict in the Middle East: Confronting Iran, 2. 118 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 general, the US-Iran relations have remained mutually hostile in recent years until 9/11 took place, creating space for placing Iran on the Axis of Evil. All what the US wants is for the Ayatullahs to go away so to make Iran a Pro-US country which would allow the US Corporations to come and exploit the resources, as was the case during Shah’s rule until 1979. Throughout history, the US administrations have made efforts to pressurize Iranian leaders to accept US hegemony or succumb to the “regime change” - the term’s use has been intensified during the Trump era. The current state of affairs makes the survival of P5+1 deal suspicious because of trust deficit. The US under Trump actually ripped apart the whole agreement. The Europeans, especially the French tried very hard to keep it alive and give some relief to the Iranians. This actually would make Iranians more cognizant of the fact that had it been a nuclear power, probably the US had thought hundred times before attacking the second most powerful man in Iran – this situation would probably not exist in such a case. For now, the problems will continue. For Iran Catch-22 - if it crosses its uranium enrichment threshold, it will have problems with West also, and even with China and Russia to a greater extent because the agreement is between 5+1. Therefore, P5+1 deal is perhaps not going to stay there for a long time though Iranians still have left some window open. Even Trump conveyed a message that there can still be a peace, if they agree to what ‘we do’.

Pakistan’s Role in Fragile Situation Under these circumstances, will Pakistan be able to stay neutral? The country has never used the word “Neutral”, rather stated that it will never be a part of any war. However, any role that Pakistan chooses to play in this situation would have important consequences. This is because the evolving situation will not only affect Iran and Middle East, but would have an equally disastrous impact on Pakistan. Not only because Pakistan is situated in this region, but due to the Pakistani expatriates, who are in Middle East and are sending back billions of dollars (estimated $ 16 billion)41 worth remittances; those remittances are the highest sources of national economy. Secondly, Pakistani society will fall into internal divisions which the country cannot afford, in case Pakistani picks one side and leaves the other, given the sectarian divides already existing in the country. In the present scenario, if anything goes wrong in Iran and Saudi

41 “World Bank Predicts Sharpest Decline of Remittances in Recent History”, Press Release,” April 22, 2020, https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press- release/2020/04/22/world-bank-predicts-sharpest-decline-of-remittances-in-recent- history Post-Soleimani US-Iran Tensions 119

Arabia, then definitely there is a sizeable community of not only Sunnis but Shias as well in Pakistan, who will probably come out in favor of Iran. There will be demonstrations as there have been demonstrations in Iraq. Eventually there will be unrest in Pakistan too and that unrest will lead to grave consequences for social and political stability in the country. Trump had answered a question that “well, we will use India to counter Pakistan.”42 India is a country where US has given support in terms of technology and intelligence sharing and military aid and the list goes on and on. Well, whatever decisions been made by the US, either through IMF or FATF, an internally unstable Pakistan would be countered much easily. If and when these lines are drawn, and the resulting divisiveness ensues, the economic benefits go to US, military and security benefits go to Israel and India. There is a larger game in this region which is being nurtured for a decade. Developments such as, ‘we have not been put in grey list, we have not been black listed in Financial Action Task Force (FATF)43 are small tactical gains that third world countries count on, without being cognizant of the larger trap that is being set for them. It is this trap which is being set to get us entangled with the preferences of great powers that a geo- strategically significant state like Pakistan has to balance and survive through amidst this challenging inter-regional milieu.

Conclusion Morality is a choice for the weak in international politics as is widely held and was displayed yet again by the killing of Qassem Soleimani. For the US, no amount of military and economic provisions will alleviate the region’s security concerns without first learning the lessons of Soleimani’s killing. It must be realized by the US that Iran is not a Banana Republic.44 In a sense, US policy decisions and Soleimani’s perceptions erected this realm together; Washington generated the

42 Jyoti Malhotra, “US to Train India in Counter-Terrorism, Trump Decides to Give Pakistan a Miss,” The Print, February 23, 2020, https://theprint.in/ diplomacy/us-to-train-india-in-counter-terrorism-trump-decides-to-give- pakistan-a-miss/369574/ 43 The Financial Action Task Force is an intergovernmental organization founded in 1989 on the initiative of the G7 to develop policies to combat money laundering. In 2001, its mandate was expanded to include terrorism financing. 44 The term “Banana Republic” was first coined in 1904 to describe Latin American countries whose economy relied heavily and usually solely on the export of bananas. In the modern world, however, developing countries are experiencing a similar problem, where they are relying purely on one product or industry to carry their entire country. 120 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 vacuum, and Soleimani had the means to bung them up. There is still a space for the US to improve the situation and cement a more positive form of influence.45 This escalation was redundant since Iran had beckoned several times that there were diplomatic options other than confrontation; nevertheless, the Trump regime left them little choice. In the short term, the assassination may help stimulate the political will in Iraq to oust an unrestricted US occupation. Iraqi MPs are presently formulating a law which would call for expulsion of US troops from Iraq. Prime Minister Abdul-Mahdi has condemned the killing of General as a breach of the agreement US made when they returned to the country in 2014, under the pretext of fighting Daesh. Muqtada al Sadr46 has joined with his former rivals to demand expulsion. If fruitful, that would help maintain peace both in Iraq and the region. American forces will be isolated when and if it vacates Iraq. Given the persistent foreign violence, the only real way forward for security in the region is that Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Syria and sooner or later Lebanon and Palestine join hands. De-escalation will surely be complex. The Iraqi government, parliament, political parties, and community leaders’ shouldn’t stand divided. Iraqi state institutions need to avert attacks against facilities where US military, diplomatic, or civilian personnel are based. The diplomatic efforts of international actors such as Germany, Oman, Qatar, Switzerland, and others that have relations with both the US and Iran could be helpful in avoiding escalation. There is a need for unruffled heads to prevail.47 There could be proxy skirmishes but no chances of an all-out-war because Iran does prioritize its survival at any cost. Iran may believe that ‘Revenge is a dish better served cold’. However, without indulging in direct war, Tehran would rather focus on its gains and may move the regional status quo in its favour, once this phase passes. This is expected to be done by raising the cost of US policy in Iraq and on nuclear issue, without drawing international ire onto itself. It is the right time for the US to realize the approaching endgame and the shifting landscape of its own

45 Hassan Hassan, “The Middle Eastern Problem Soleimani Problem Figured Out,” Politico, Dec. 1, 2020. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ 2020/01/12/iran-middle-eastern-problem-soleimani-figured-out-097350. 46 He is an Iraqi Shia cleric, politician and militia leader. He is the leader of the Sadrist Movement and the leader of Saraya al-Salam, a Shia militia that is a reformation of the previous militia he led during the American occupation of Iraq, the Mahdi Army. 47 Hassan Hassan, “The Middle Eastern Problem Soleimani Problem Figured Out,” Politico, December 1, 2020, https://www.politico.com/news/ magazine/2020/01/12/iran-middle-eastern-problem-soleimani-figured-out- 097350. Post-Soleimani US-Iran Tensions 121 making. The way forward is to uphold stable and legitimate governments, and steadily strengthen institutions in broken countries. Instead of paying bad guys to fight other bad guys, a productive role would be to brace more moderate local actors to block up the emergent gap in large parts of the Middle East.48

48 Ibid. 122 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Book Reviews

Title: Twilight of Democracy: The Seductive Lure of Authoritarianism Author: Anne Applebaum Publisher: Penguin Random House LLC, New York, 2020, 206.

ow do demagogues come into being and what entices masses to yield to their divisive politics? In Twilight of Democracy, Anne H Applebaum takes us through democracies on both sides of the Atlantic and their flirtation with authoritarianism. Born in Washington D.C. in a Jewish household and married to a former Foreign Minister of Poland, Mrs. Sikorski’s three decades of career in journalism is nothing short of illustrious. She has written extensively on communism, European affairs and American politics. Her sizeable list of honors includes the 2004 Pulitzer Prize for Non-Fiction for Gulag: A History, a book that has since been translated in twenty-five languages. Founder of Democracy Lab, a website that watches states in transition to or moving away from democracy, and Beyond Propaganda, a program that examines twenty- first century disinformation campaigns, Applebaum sits on the editorial board of the American Interest and Journal of Democracy. Besides considerable comprehension of Western societies, this publication exudes the author’s profound faith in the post-war liberal project and dismay at its contemporary descent. Between two parties in a bucolic setting in northwest Poland, Applebaum gives a quick rundown of the proliferation of post-truth politics in the first two decades of the twenty-first century: degeneration of institutions, demonization of criticsand dissolution of fraternity that has accompanied the disruption of democracy in Europe and the United States of America. Beginning with the Law and Justice Party that rose to power in Poland in 2015, she describes the paranoia and xenophobia that is systemically fed to the masses to further political agendas. From subversion of the constitution to curbs on journalistic freedom, the authoritarian bent of the dispensation is flagrant. This soft dictatorship is also visible in Orban’s Hungary that uses the machinery of the state to harass opponents of the regime and promote its allies. Institutions are regularly undermined and in some cases, such as the Central European University, also dislodged. Applebaum continues that similar hyper- nationalism, disapprobation of rule of law, exclusionary rhetoric and obfuscation animated Vox’s campaign in Spain, Brexit and the US Presidential Elections of 2016. How does democracy become a staging point on the road to tyranny as Plato had postulated? The Greek philosopherdreaded the demagogue’s false words just like the founding fathers of the United States were mindful of a corrupt leader and sought to create a system of checks Book Reviews 123 that could restrain one. Another question follows: who might be drawn to a rabble-rouser and under what conditions? The answer lies in human nature. According to behavioral economist Karen Stenner, an authoritarian disposition favors order and uniformity. It appeals to people who cannot stand complexity and pluralism. Averse to debate, it is not a set of ideas but a frame of mind and there is nothing inherently right or left wing about this instinct. She is of the view that in any country, a third of the populace possesses this tendency. However, the mere presence of citizens inclined towards absolutism does not completely account for a demagogue’s rise to power. Quoting the French essayist Julien Benda’s 1927 book ‘The Treason of Intellectuals’, the author points out that authoritarians also require members of the educated and intellectual elite, the clercs, to launch the coup or promote unrest by manipulating discontent, channeling grievances and providing a different vision for the future. Anne Applebaum holds that although, the authoritarian left is amassing cultural power, the only modern clercs who have succeeded in taking charge of governments and political parties in the West are members of movements labeled as the ‘right’. Moreover, they have little in common with groups that have been so defined after the 2nd World War. Instead, the new right longs to undo existing paradigms of state and society. To attain this end, these polarizing campaigns employ a ‘Big Lie’ or the ‘Medium-Size Lie’, encouraging their followers to engage with an alternative reality. Conspiracy theories are first circulated as the main plank of an election campaign and then by the ruling party using full might of a modern, centralized administration. Their emotional appeal lies in their simplicity and their reiteration brings power to the custodians of one-party state. This illiberal state system is not a philosophy but a means of obtaining and holding on to power and functions parallel to an assortment of ideologies. In modern times, it does not entail violence to remain in power. Instead, it depends on a cadre of elites to run state media, bureaucracy, courts and in some instances, state companies as well. Their role is to defend their leaders’ deceitful statements, corruption and devastating impact on institutions and ordinary people. In return, they are rewarded and promoted, offered lucrative contracts, salaries and impunity for graft and incompetence. Different versions of this state capture are found around the world but they all represent the end of the rather detestable notions of free market, political competition and meritocracy that according to them have not benefited the less successful. The speedy shift in the manner people exchange messages has enormous political ramifications. Diversion of advertising to social media companies has severely limited the ability of newspapers and broadcasters to gather and present information. Answerable to regulators and courts, the journalists of these mediums abided by certain ethical codes and enabled a single national conversation. It is not possible 124 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 anymore as people do not only differ in opinion nowadays but also on facts. In an information sphere not constrained by any political, cultural or moral authority whatsoever - and no reliable sources, fabricated, partisan and deceptive narratives spread like wildfires. Too difficult to keep up with for the fact-checkers and even if they could, the public won’t believe them. Incorrect perceptions of the world are stimulated by social media algorithms themselves. Designed to keep people online, they stir emotions especially fear and anger. Owing to the addictiveness of these sites, divisiveness and rage become a habit. As these digital platforms increasingly determine how journalists and politicians construe and depict things, polarization moves from the virtual to the real world resulting in a hyper-partisanship that derides ‘experts’, mistrusts ‘establishment’ politics and is suspicious of ‘mainstream’ institutions including civil servants, police and the courts. Applebaum is of the view that although democracy has always been unruly, it ultimately generates consensus when its rules are observed. However, the modern debate is driven by the desire to compulsorily silence the rest. The occurrence of a pandemic at this time is disconcerting as historically, contagions have resulted in the expansion of a state’s powers. Fear of disease may lead to fear of freedom. She worries that the era in which borders could be traversed with ease, expertise and knowledge were appreciated and sensible debate was possible may have been one of history’s many blind alleys. It is conceivable that our civilization is already headed for tyranny or anarchy and like the twentieth century, a new generation of clercs, theproponents of authoritarian ideas born out of antipathy or messianic dreams triumph. Contrarily, Covid-19 may inspire a renewed sense of global solidarity and lead to the expansion of international institutions. After having undergone quarantine, lockdown and fear of infection simultaneously, the reality of death could perhaps teach people to be wary of peddlers of hate, division and disinformation. Both futures are equally likely. One must realize that no political victory is eternal and no definition of the nation is conclusive. No solution or theory can explain everything. There is no single road map to a better world. All authoritarianisms polarize, separate and split people in warring camps; therefore, it is crucial that we choose our comrades with great care. Together, we can reimagine democracy for the digital age and make misconstrued concepts like liberalism mean something again. The struggle against their excesses is worth continuing not because a perfect society is attainable but because indifference is soul-destroying, mind-numbing and deadening.

Reviewed by Saria Ahmad, PhD Scholar, Department of IR, NDU. Book Reviews 125

Title: The World: A Brief Introduction Author: Richard Haass Publisher: Penguin Press, New York, May 12, 2020, 378.

he earth is in both, a perilous and promising state and America’s sustained, active participation in international affairs is essential in T every respect, opines this primer on global politics. The ambition of the book is discernible from its title, ‘The World: A Brief Introduction’. In barely 400 pages, the author pitches this compendium at beginners attempting to make sense of the implications of developments abroad for the United States of America. Following a swift montage of world history from the seventeenth century, the publication zooms in on the period after the Second World War and prevalent conditions in key regions and hot spots such as Europe and the Middle East. This brief, yet authoritative study leads up to chapter-long backgrounders about geopolitical issues covering the rise of China, migration, nuclear non-proliferation, development strategies for poor countries, climate change, war, trade and pandemics. As such, it promises a manual for everyday people to interpret the global forces in which their lives are enmeshed even if they are not aware of it or do not like it. Richard Haass’s credentials are as prolific as his writings on the subject. In his seventeenth year as the President of Council for Foreign Relations, an independent and non-partisan think tank based in New York, he has also served as a senior foreign policy official in the administration of Presidents Ronald Regan, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush. An important insider of American foreign policy clerisy, Haass’s last book ‘A World in Disarray: American Foreign Policy and the Crisis of the Old Order’ expressed trepidation over the falling apart of the liberal international order and obstacles to devising a viable substitute to it. Perhaps, to accentuate average Americans’ limited knowledge about the world in general, Haass mentions that the inspiration for his recent volume came from his encounter with a student at the Stanford University during a day of fishing in Nantucket who confessed to having studied little of history, economics or politics. From poor decision-making to disengagement at a time of increasing global dysfunction, he warns that the consequences of this ignorance are severe. What exactly do Americans require to learn to ensure a better future for themselves? In the two dozen chapters of ‘The World’ amounting to IR 101, Haass attempts to answer this question by covering everything from terrorism to international law and monetary policy. While explaining these multifarious issues, he steers clear of academic theories dismissing them as “too abstract and too far removed from what is happening to be of value to most of us.” The central argument of the book is that the Vegas rule is not applicable to today’s interconnected world. What happens inside a country does not stay there; the oceans adjoining 126 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 the United States are not moats. Extremist ideologies, economic downturns and greenhouse gases, for instance, do not respect frontiers and no nation can be sequestered from them. The gulf between the insistence of governments to preserve their sovereign prerogatives and inevitability of global problems that can only be tackled through empowerment of international institutions and combined sacrifice is widening. The pandemic we are faced with provides a primary evidence of the conflicting trends that are at the heart of Haass’s analysis. It impels nations to seal themselves against the virus’s ingress from abroad but also to cut across national borders and cooperate globally against a shared threat. The book makes a start in the manner of a reference book. The first few chapters narrate the broad flow of international politics since the Peace of Westphalia that enshrined the concept of sovereignty of the nation-state, not accountable to any higher authority. Pacing through modern diplomatic history, the author exhibits the stabilizing capability of the balance of power but also underscores the dangers of violence and discord in a world grouped in this way. In contrast to some self-professed realists who view states as the only players that matter on world stage, Haass recognizes the often crucial role played by non-governmental organizations, corporations, religions, media and also, terrorist groups. The next section deals with major demographic, political and economic developments in important regions of the world. Haass acknowledges the promising trends of the past thirty years which includes a decline in the proportion of global population living in acute poverty from more than one-third three decades ago to less than one-tenth now. However, the overall picture presented by him is grim. Whereas some issues such as hostility between nuclear-armed Pakistan and India, civil wars in Africa and tensions provoked by a rising China are familiar, there are others that do not constitute top stories but are equally pressing. These include challenges to providing education and making jobs available to rapidly increasing populations in Africa and Asia and weakening civil authority and democracy in countries of the Western hemisphere. The third portion digs into a variety of global problems. The good news is that nations have made remarkable strides in controlling the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and combating terrorism. In other areas such as the handling of refugees and policing of cyberspace, Haass sees little hope for progress. Talking about the environment, he is forthright in predicting that the defining issue of the twenty-first century may be climate change. In the final section of his book, Haass returns to ‘A World in Disarray’ by inquiring into the potential of alliances, international institutions and law that states may resort to to restore order in a chaotic world. He contends that international institutions such as the United Nations are only as strong as the major powers are willing to let them be. Dependent on them for resources to sustain themselves, they have to tread Book Reviews 127 carefully. Contrary to the even-handed and didactic approach adopted elsewhere in the book, Haass wraps up with an exhortation to reinstate America’s role as the leader of the free world. Bolstered by military muscle, this, he believes is indispensable to attaining stability and progress in the years ahead. A world order propped up by China would undeniably be illiberal and democracies in Europe, Canada and Asia cannot be expected to rise to the occasion. To build a new and improved order that can withstand changes to global configuration of power and meet the complex challenges of globalization, the United States must amend its behavior to be viewed as a benign, rather than malign force in world affairs. Some observers consider this change elusive unless Democrats take over all three branches of the government in November. Other factors can also not be discounted. Can the United States continue to expend its material capabilities on costly military enterprises? Will a more informed citizenry abreast with the intricacies of international relations favor an activist foreign policy as pursued by the United States from the second half of the twentieth century? Whatever way one may answer these questions, the most important takeaway from Haass’s book can be recapped in his own words: ‘The world is going to keep changing. And how it affects us is also going to keep changing. And we've got to keep up with it.’

Reviewed by Irfan Ahmed, PhD Scholar, Department of IR, NDU.

128 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Documents Document: 1

Message from H.E. Imran Khan, Prime Minister of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan on the 75th Anniversary of the United Nations, October 24th, 2020, Islamabad.

oday, the international community commemorates the United Nations’ 75th anniversary. We are celebrating this momentous T occasion, when 75 years ago, the founding fathers came together to establish a rules-based international system to ‘save the succeeding generations from the scourge of war’. While remaining at the forefront of the deliberations in the UN in supporting decolonization and advocating liberation of many States, Pakistan is proud to play its part in upholding universal values to protect and safeguard human rights and fundamental freedoms for all. Pakistan continues to support the right of all peoples living under foreign occupation and alien domination to self-determination. It is gratifying that Pakistan has played a critical role in preserving international peace and security, through its contribution of ‘blue helmets’ to the UN Peacekeeping Missions all around the world. At this historic occasion, I want to pay tribute to all men and women peacekeepers, including from Pakistan, who remain ready to serve in the most fragile and conflict-ridden areas and never hesitate to make the ultimate sacrifice for maintaining peace and security around the globe. The 75th United Nations Day is also a somber reminder that the Jammu and Kashmir dispute remains unresolved, despite being on the UN’s agenda for over seven decades. The people of Jammu and Kashmir are still awaiting the fulfillment of commitment made to them by the United Nations to exercise their right to self-determination. It is deplorable that the situation in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) has further exacerbated since India’s unilateral and unlawful actions of 5 August 2019. Led by ‘Hindutva’ ideology, the RSS-BJP regime has continued an inhuman military siege and imposed draconian restrictions on freedom of movement and communications. I urge the international community, especially the Security Council, to exercise its moral, legal, political and diplomatic authority to implement UN Security Council resolutions on Jammu and Kashmir. The United Nations faces many challenges amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. We are witnessing rise of ultra-nationalist, populist, xenophobic and Islamophobic tendencies. At the same time, international law and agreements are being flouted or set aside. Trade barriers are being imposed and the pandemic is being ‘politicized’. Documents 129

Pakistan remains committed to supporting the United Nations for realization of our shared objectives of maintaining international peace and security; economic and social development including the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals; and the promotion and protection of human rights for all. I also reaffirm Pakistan’s abiding commitment to multilateralism. Pakistan would continue to play a leading role in the United Nations for peaceful settlement of international disputes and developing friendly relations among nations based on the principle of equal rights and self- determination of peoples, as enshrined in the UN Charter.

Source: http://mofa.gov.pk/message-from-h-e-imran-khan-prime-minister- of-the-islamic-republic-of-pakistan-on-the-occasion-of-the-75th- anniversary-of-the-united-nations/ . 130 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Document: 2 Statement by the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia and the President of the Russian Federation, November 10th, 2020.

e, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan IlhamAliyev, Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia NikolPashinyan and W President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, hereby declare the following: 1. A complete ceasefire and the termination of hostilities in the Nagorno- Karabakh conflict zone will become effective as of midnight, Moscow time, on November 10, 2020. The Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia, hereinafter referred to as the Parties, shall remain in their current positions. 2. The Agdam District shall be returned to the Republic of Azerbaijan before November 20, 2020. 3. A peacekeeping force of the Russian Federation comprising 1,960 military personnel with light weapons, 90 armoured personnel carriers and 380 military and special vehicles shall be deployed along the contact line in Nagorno-Karabakh and along the Lachin Corridor. 4. The deployment of the Russian peacekeeping force shall proceed simultaneously with the withdrawal of Armenian troops. The peacekeeping force will be deployed for the duration of five years, to be tacitly extended for subsequent five-year periods unless either party announces its intention to terminate this provision six months before expiry. 5. A peacekeeping ceasefire verification centre shall be established to enhance the monitoring of the compliance with the agreements by the Parties to the conflict. 6. The Republic of Armenia shall cede the Kalbajar District to the Republic of Azerbaijan before November 15, 2020, and the Lachin District before December 1, 2020. The five-kilometre wide Lachin Corridor, which will ensure connection between Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia but will not include the city of Shusha, shall be controlled by the peacekeeping force of the Russian Federation. By agreement of the Parties, a plan shall be coordinated in the next three years for the construction of a new route in the Lachin Corridor to connect Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia, with the subsequent redeployment of the Russian peacekeeping force to protect the new route. The Republic of Azerbaijan shall guarantee the safe movement of people, vehicles and cargo along the Lachin Corridor in both directions. 7. The internally displaced persons and refugees shall return to Nagorno- Karabakh and the adjacent regions under the supervision of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. Documents 131

8. The parties shall exchange prisoners of war, hostages, other detainees and the dead. 9. The blockade of all economic and transport ties in the region shall be lifted. The Republic of Armenia shall guarantee the safety of transport between the western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic with the aim of facilitating the free movement of people, vehicles and cargo in both directions. The oversight of transport communications shall be ensured with the involvement of the agencies of Russia’s FSB Border Guard Service. By agreement of the Parties, the construction of new transport communications shall be launched to connect the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic with the western regions of Azerbaijan.

Source: https://en.president.az/articles/45924 132 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020

Document: 3 Ministers’ Declaration on India’s Participation in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), Virtual Meeting, November 11th, 2020.

he RCEP Ministers of the Member States of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) – Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, T Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Viet Nam – Australia, China, Japan, Korea and New Zealand (the RCEP Signatory States), recognizing that India is not in a position to sign the RCEP Agreement in 2020 together with the RCEP Signatory States, and acknowledging the strategic importance of India eventually becoming a party to the RCEP Agreement to create a region of even deeper and expanded value chains for the benefit of all people in the region and contribute further to the development of the global economy, have confirmed the following:

1. The RCEP Agreement is open for accession by India from the date of entry into force of the Agreement as provided in Article 20.9 (Accession) of the RCEP Agreement; 2. The RCEP Signatory States will commence negotiations with India at any time after the signing of the RCEP Agreement once India submits a request in writing of its intention to accede to the RCEP Agreement to the Depositary of the RCEP Agreement, taking into consideration the latest status of India’s participation in the RCEP negotiations and any new development thereafter; and 3. Any time prior to its accession to the Agreement, India may participate in RCEP meetings as an observer and in economic cooperation activities undertaken by the RCEP Signatory States under the RCEP Agreement, on terms and conditions to be jointly decided upon by the RCEP Signatory States.

Expressing their strong will to re-engage India in the RCEP Agreement, the RCEP Ministers affirmed that the abovementioned arrangements will commence on the date of the signing of the RCEP Agreement, and will continue until India accedes to the RCEP Agreement.

Source:https://www.meti.go.jp/press/2020/11/20201115001/2020111500 1-3.pdf Documents 133

Document: 4 Joint Leaders’ Statement on the Fourth Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (Rcep), November 15th, 2020, Virtual Meeting.

We, the Heads of State/Government of the Member States of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) – Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam – Australia, China, Japan, Korea and New Zealand, met virtually on 15 November 2020, on the occasion of the 4th RCEP Summit. We were pleased to witness the signing of the RCEP Agreement, which comes at a time when the world is confronted with the unprecedented challenge brought about by the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) global pandemic. In light of the adverse impact of the pandemic on our economies, and our people’s livelihood and well-being, the signing of the RCEP Agreement demonstrates our strong commitment to supporting economic recovery, inclusive development, job creation and strengthening regional supply chains as well as our support for an open, inclusive, rules-based trade and investment arrangement. We acknowledge that the RCEP Agreement is critical for our region’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic and will play an important role in building the region’s resilience through inclusive and sustainable post-pandemic economic recovery process. We note that the RCEP Agreement is an unprecedented mega regional trading arrangement that comprises a diverse mix of developed, developing and least developed economies of the region. As an agreement that would cover a market of 2.2 billion people, or almost 30% of the world’s population, with a combined GDP of US$ 26.2 trillion or about 30% of global GDP, and accounts for nearly 28% of global trade (based on 2019 figures), we believe that RCEP, being the world’s largest free trade arrangement, represents an important step forward towards an ideal framework of global trade and investment rules. We also note that the RCEP Agreement is the most ambitious free trade agreement initiated by ASEAN, which contributes to enhancing ASEAN centrality in regional frameworks and strengthening ASEAN cooperation with regional partners. With 20 Chapters, the RCEP Agreement, as a modern, comprehensive, high-quality and mutually beneficial agreement, includes areas and disciplines that were not previously covered in the existing free trade agreements between ASEAN and non-ASEAN countries participating in RCEP. Aside from the specific provisions that cover trade in goods and services, and investment, RCEP also includes chapters on intellectual property, electronic commerce, competition, small and medium enterprises (SMEs), economic and technical cooperation and government procurement. We are confident that the RCEP Agreement would open a vast range of opportunities for 134 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 businesses located in the region especially in terms of market access given the level of liberalisation for trade in goods and services and investment. We agreed that the opportunities accruing from the RCEP Agreement and its full potential can only be realised once the Agreement enters into force. Towards this end, we task our officials to expedite respective domestic ratification procedures for the early entry into force of the Agreement, which will take place when at least six ASEAN Member States and three non-ASEAN signatories deposit their instrument of ratification, acceptance or approval with the Agreement’s Depositary. We have also asked Ministers to develop RCEP as a platform for dialogue and cooperation on trade and economic issues affecting the region and to report to us regularly. We are committed to ensuring that RCEP remains an open and inclusive agreement. Further, we would highly value India’s role in RCEP and reiterate that the RCEP remains open to India. As one of the 16 original participating countries, India’s accession to the RCEP Agreement would be welcome in view of its participation in RCEP negotiations since 2012 and its strategic importance as a regional partner in creating deeper and expanded regional value chains. In this regard, we welcomed the “Ministers’ Declaration on India’s Participation in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)” affirmed by the RCEP Ministers, as attached. Source: https://asean.org/joint-leaders-statement-regional-comprehensive- economic-partnership-rcep-2/ Documents 135

Document: 5 Joint Statement on the Third U.S.-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue,27TH October, 2020. ndia’s Minister of Defence Rajnath Singh and Minister of External Affairs Dr. S. Jaishankar welcomed U.S. Secretary of State Michael R. I Pompeo and Secretary of Defense Dr. Mark T. Esper to New Delhi for the third annual U.S.-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue. The Ministers welcomed the elevation of the U.S.-India relationship to a Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership during the visit of President Donald J. Trump to India in February 2020. They reiterated their commitment to further strengthening the U.S.-India partnership, anchored in mutual trust and friendship, shared commitment to democracy, converging strategic interests, and robust engagement of their citizens. While celebrating more than seven decades of diplomatic engagement between the United States and India, the Ministers intend to expand cooperation under the 2+2 framework to realize the full potential of the U.S.-India Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership.

Cooperation during the COVID-19 Pandemic The Ministers applauded the exemplary cooperation between the United States and India in confronting challenges emerging from the COVID-19 pandemic. They reiterated their resolve to strengthen cooperation in the development of vaccines, therapeutics, diagnostics, ventilators and other essential medical equipment. Recognizing that bilateral engagement in research and development and the mass production of vaccines and therapeutics plays to our respective strengths, the Ministers sought to jointly promote access to high quality, safe, effective and affordable COVID-19 vaccines and treatments on a global scale. India expressed appreciation for the 200 ventilators provided by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) to the Indian Red Cross Society, while the U.S. expressed appreciation for India’s export of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), essential medicines, and therapeutics to the United States during these challenging times. The Ministers looked forward to the conclusion of an overarching MoU between the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and India’s Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, including their component agencies and departments, to enhance health cooperation, including on health emergencies and pandemics, prevention, diagnosis and treatment of communicable and non-communicable diseases, and biomedical research and innovation. The Ministers also looked forward to the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAD/NIH) and the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) to collaborate through an International Center of Excellence in Research focused on infectious diseases including COVID-19 and other emerging threats. They welcomed the upcoming call for 136 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 applications for clinical research fellowships for early and mid-career American and Indian scientists to help expand the cohort of physician scientists focused on research that will advance clinical practice and benefit public health in both countries. Noting the importance of health sector cooperation, they also looked forward to convening the U.S.-India Health Dialogue at an early date. The Ministers reaffirmed efforts to enhance supply chain resilience and to seek alternatives to the current paradigm, which had come under severe strain during the pandemic and exposed critical vulnerabilities. The Ministers sought to support the global economic recovery, including in India and the United States, to emerge from the pandemic more resilient than ever. The Ministers expressed appreciation for the repatriation of stranded U.S. and Indian nationals from both countries during the pandemic.

Shared Vision for the Indo-Pacific and Global Leadership The Ministers reiterated their commitment to maintaining a free, open, inclusive, peaceful, and prosperous Indo-Pacific built on a rules- based international order, underpinned by ASEAN centrality, rule of law, sustainable and transparent infrastructure investment, freedom of navigation and overflight, mutual respect for sovereignty, and peaceful resolution of disputes. Highlighting the importance of securing the economic and security interests of all stakeholders having a legitimate interest in the region, the Ministers welcomed the growing understanding on the Indo-Pacific among like-minded countries. They reaffirmed that closer U.S.-India cooperation will support shared interests in promoting security and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond. They also emphasized that the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea should not prejudice the legitimate rights and interests of any nation in accordance with international law. The Ministers welcomed the recent convening of the Second Australia-India-Japan-United States Quadrilateral Ministerial Meeting in Tokyo on October 6, 2020. They appreciated the exchange of views on regional issues of mutual interest, as well as ongoing cooperation related to maritime security, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, regional connectivity, health security and counter terrorism. The Ministers also welcomed the fact that these Consultations would now be held annually. They expressed their support for further strengthening Quad cooperation through expanded activities, including initiating a dialogue among the development organizations of partner countries. The Ministers expressed their support for sustainable, transparent, quality infrastructure development in the Indo-Pacific region. They looked forward to furthering collaboration between USAID and India’s Development Partnership Administration (DPA) with a view to Documents 137 undertaking joint projects in the region. The Ministers welcomed the establishment of a permanent presence of the U.S. International Development Finance Cooperation (DFC) in India this year. The United States expressed strong support for the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI) as a leading mechanism for promoting regional economic development. Recognizing the need to contain the build-up of sovereign debt in developing and low-income countries by ensuring responsible, transparent, and sustainable financing practices for both borrowers and creditors, the Ministers looked forward to exploring ways to cooperate under the Blue Dot Network. They also looked forward to the Second Indo-Pacific Business Forum (IPBF) to be held on October 28-29, 2020. Building on a strong record of peacekeeping cooperation, the Ministers decided to expand joint capacity building efforts with partner countries in the Indo-Pacific and to participate in multilateral peacekeeping training exercises. The Ministers discussed their shared interest in promoting a sovereign, peaceful, united, democratic, inclusive, stable and secure Afghanistan, including support for an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace process. They applauded India’s development assistance, and efforts to build trade linkages and multi-modal connectivity infrastructure for Afghanistan to enhance its regional connectivity to sustain growth and development over the long term. The United States congratulated India for its non-permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) for the term 2021-2022. The Ministers reiterated their commitment to work together in close coordination at the UNSC and in International Organizations. The U.S. also reaffirmed its continued strong support for India’s permanent membership in a reformed UNSC as well as for India’s early entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).

Advancing the Defense and Security Partnership Noting the 15th anniversary of the inaugural U.S.-India Defense Framework Agreement, the Ministers commended what has become a comprehensive, resilient, and multi-faceted Major Defense Partnership (MDP) between the United States and India. They applauded the significant step of the signing of the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA). They also welcomed enhanced maritime information sharing and maritime domain awareness between their Navies and affirmed their commitment to build upon existing defense information- sharing at the joint-service and service-to-service levels and explore potential new areas of mutually beneficial cooperation. The Ministers reaffirmed their commitment to deepening bilateral defense consultation and collaboration and to exploring opportunities to expand cooperative capacity-building efforts with partners across the 138 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 region. They also affirmed their commitment to pursue increased cooperation between the Indian military and U.S. Central Command and Africa Command, including broader participation in exercises and conferences, so as to promote shared security interests. The U.S. appreciated India’s leadership in establishing an Information Fusion Centre for the Indian Ocean Region (IFC-IOR). The Ministers welcomed the positioning of a Liaison Officer from the U.S. Navy at the IFC-IOR and the positioning of an Indian Liaison Officer at NAVCENT, Bahrain and reiterated their intent to assign additional Liaison Officers. The Ministers expressed satisfaction at the ongoing progress in the implementation of Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) and Communications, Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA), including the expansion of secure communications capabilities to include secure video teleconference capabilities between their respective Navies, Armies and Air Forces as well as between respective Foreign and Defense Ministries. The Ministers welcomed the convening of the Military Cooperation Group (MCG) later this year to review bilateral military-to-military engagement including joint exercises, training and expert exchanges. They looked forward to interaction between the Special Forces of the United States and India. The Ministers welcomed the inclusion of the Royal Australian Navy in the U.S.-India-Japan MALABAR Naval Exercise scheduled to be held in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea in November 2020. Highlighting the importance of deepening maritime cooperation and the growing sophistication of U.S.-India naval cooperation, the Ministers welcomed the PASSEX carried out by the Navies of both countries. They also looked forward to the convening of the next edition of the Tri-Services Amphibious TIGER TRIUMPH HADR Exercise and Army Exercises YUDH ABHYAS and VAJRA PRAHAR in 2021. The U.S. welcomed India’s co- hosting of the Indo-Pacific Armies Chiefs Conference (IPACC), Indo-Pacific Armies Management Seminar (IPAMS) and Senior Enlisted Leader Forum (SELF) in 2023. The Ministers decided to work together to realize the development of their respective defense industries. Acknowledging India’s contributions to the global supply chain of major defense platforms and commitment to defense innovation, the Ministers reiterated the importance of Defense Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI), and stated their intention to fast track projects under DTTI. They noted with satisfaction the signing of a Statement of Intent (SoI) at the 10th DTTI meeting to strengthen dialogue on defense technology cooperation on several specific DTTI projects as well as a DTTI Standard Operating Procedure (SoP) for identification and development of joint projects. India looked forward to the participation by the U.S. Government and defense industry at the upcoming Aero-India in February 2021. Documents 139

Recognizing the importance of cooperation in defense innovation, the Ministers welcomed the inaugural meeting between the Indian Defence Innovation Organization (DIO-iDEX) and U.S. Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) in July 2020. They also looked forward to the inaugural Industrial Security Annex (ISA) Summit later this year which would further strengthen defense industrial cooperation between both countries.

Strengthening Bilateral U.S.-India Cooperation The Ministers welcomed efforts to rejuvenate and expand bilateral U.S.-India trade in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this regard, they noted ongoing discussions by the Unites States Trade Representative and India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry to reach an understanding on improving market access, removing barriers to trade, and improving the business environment. The Ministers noted with satisfaction the significant strides made under the four Pillars of the Strategic Energy Partnership (SEP) covering Oil & Gas, Power and Energy Efficiency, Renewables and Sustainable Growth. They also appreciated the progress made under the U.S.-India Gas Task Force and the launch of industry-led projects. They welcomed the announcement of new priorities and roadmap for each of the Pillars during the Ministerial meeting of the SEP held on July 17, 2020. With the objective of intensifying cooperation in the area of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs), the Ministers welcomed the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding in this regard. Recalling the historic India-U.S. Civil Nuclear Agreement, the Ministers welcomed the project Division of Responsibility principles between the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) and Westinghouse Electric Company (WEC) for the construction of six nuclear reactors at Kovvada, and looked forward to the detailed Division of Responsibility that would pave the way for a techno-commercial offer. The Ministers also welcomed the extension of the MoU between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of India concerning cooperation with India’s Global Centre for Nuclear Energy Partnership (GCNEP). The Ministers welcomed the virtual convening of the 17th meeting of the U.S.-India Counter Terrorism Joint Working Group and the 3rd Session of the U.S.-India Designations Dialogue on September 9-10, 2020. They denounced the use of terrorist proxies and strongly condemned cross border terrorism in all its forms. They emphasised the need for concerted action against all terrorist networks, including al- Qaeda, ISIS/Daesh, Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT), Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) and Hizb-ul-Mujahideen. The Ministers called on Pakistan to take immediate, sustained and irreversible action to ensure that no territory under its control is used for terrorist attacks, and to expeditiously bring to justice the perpetrators and planners of all such attacks, including 26/11 Mumbai, Uri, and Pathankot. The Ministers also committed to continued 140 Journal of Contemporary Studies, Vol. IX, No.2, Winter 2020 exchange of information about sanctions and designations against terror groups and individuals, particularly in light of recent legislative changes in India, as well as countering the financing and operations of terrorist organizations, countering radicalism and terrorist use of the internet, cross-border movement of terrorists, and prosecuting, rehabilitating, and reintegrating returning terrorist fighters and family members. The Ministers intend to enhance their ongoing cooperation in multilateral fora, including the UN. They also reaffirmed their support for the early adoption of a UN Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism (CCIT) that will advance and strengthen the framework for global cooperation and reinforce the message that no cause or grievance justifies terrorism. In view of the announcement made during President Trump’s visit to India to establish a new U.S.-India Counter-Narcotics Working Group, the Ministers welcomed the proposal to convene the first such virtual meeting later this year, with an in-person meeting in 2021, to enhance cooperation between U.S. and Indian drug and law enforcement agencies. The Ministers welcomed efforts by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and India’s Ministry of Home Affairs to reinvigorate the Homeland Security Dialogue. The Ministers welcomed the virtual convening of the U.S.-India Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Working Group on October 1, 2020. They reaffirmed their commitment towards an open, reliable and secure internet as well as the multi-stakeholder model of internet governance. They emphasized fostering cooperation between their industry and academia for an open, secure and resilient supply of strategic material and critical infrastructure and to independently evaluate the risk associated with deployment of emerging ICT technologies, including 5G networks. The Ministers also welcomed the recent convening of the annual U.S.-India Cyber Dialogue on September 15, 2020 and the first U.S.-India Defense Cyber Dialogue on September 17, 2020. Recalling their countries’ proud record of achievement in space science and satellite application, the Ministers applauded the ongoing collaboration between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO), including on the NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR) satellite scheduled to be launched by 2022. The Ministers also looked forward to sharing Space Situational Awareness information, which will catalyze efforts to create the conditions for a safe, stable, and sustainable space environment. They also expressed the intent to continue the U.S.-India Space Dialogue as well as discussions on areas of potential space defense cooperation. The Ministers welcomed the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for Technical Cooperation in Earth Observation and Earth Sciences between the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Documents 141

Administration and the Indian Ministry of Earth Sciences for developing a better understanding of regional and global weather origins in the Indian Ocean and advancing common research goals in meteorology, oceanography, and management of living marine resources. The Ministers welcomed the signing of an Agreement between the United States Postal Service and India’s Department of Post, which will facilitate the electronic exchange of customs data related to postal shipments. They also applauded the signing of the Letter of Intent (LoI) between the Office of Cancer Complementary and Alternative Medicine, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and the Indian Central Council for Research in Ayurvedic Sciences, Ministry of AYUSH.

Nurturing People–to-People Bonds Underscoring the importance of ties between our respective legislatures, the Ministers welcomed the launch of a U.S.-India Parliamentary Exchange. Applauding the entrepreneurial spirit of Indians and Indian- Americans that has mutually benefitted both nations, the Ministers recognized the important role of people-to-people linkages in strengthening the overall bilateral relationship and economic ties. Both sides look forward to the next iteration of the India-U.S. Consular Dialogue to further increase cooperation and discuss issues of mutual concern, including visas, and familial issues related to marriage, adoption and child custody. The Ministers welcomed the increasing number of Indian students in the United States and acknowledged the role of expanding educational ties and fostering entrepreneurship and scientific innovation. In this context, the Ministers welcomed India’s National Education Policy (NEP) 2020 which would pave the way for enhanced collaboration between academic institutions of both countries. The Ministers looked forward to discussions to further advance U.S.-India educational partnerships. Appreciating the valuable contribution of the Fulbright-Nehru Program over the years in furthering exchange of outstanding academics and professionals between both countries, the Ministers celebrated the 70th anniversary of the Program this year. The Ministers welcomed the commencement of issuance of 12- month reciprocal temporary duty visas to officials from both Governments as a step to facilitate the growing partnership. The United States looks forward to hosting the next 2+2 Ministerial in 2021.

Source: https://in.usembassy.gov/joint-statement-on-the-third-u-s-india- 22-ministerial-dialogue/

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