LMB Report V4.3
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Planning Approaches for Water Resources Development in the Lower Mekong Basin July 2011 1 1 Robert Costanza, Ida Kubiszewski, Peter Paquet,2 Jeffrey King,3 Shpresa Halimi,1 Hansa Sanguanngoi,4 Nguyen Luong Bach,4 4 4 Richard Frankel, Jiragorn Ganaseni, Apisom Intralawan,4 and David Morell4 Planning Approaches for Water Resources Development in the Lower Mekong Basin i Authors affiliations: 1. Institute for Sustainable Solutions, Portland State University, Portland, Oregon, USA 2. Northwest Power and Conservation Council, Portland, Oregon, USA 3. J.C. King & Associates, Portland, Oregon, USA 4. Center for Natural Resources and Environmental Management, Mae Fah Luang University, Chiang Rai, Thailand Acknowledgements This report was funded by the United States Agency for International Development through a contract with AECOM International Development, which implements the Environmental Cooperation–Asia (ECO-Asia) project. We thank Paul Violette, Peter King, and Ornsaran (Pomme) Manuamorn from ECO-Asia for their help with several aspects of the report preparation. We thank the Mekong River Commission (MRC) for their cooperation, provision of data, and detailed comments on earlier drafts. We also thank external reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions on an earlier draft. Disclaimer The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. Some sections of this report are reproduced from the authors’ prior published work. i Table of Contents Table of Contents .................................................................................................................... ii List of Acronyms .................................................................................................................... iv Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................... iv Executive Summary ................................................................................................................. 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 4 1. Risk, Uncertainty, and Intergenerational Issues ................................................................... 5 1.1. Background ................................................................................................................... 5 1.2. Sources and MetHods to Address Risk and Uncertainty ................................................. 6 1.2.1. Parameter Uncertainty ................................................................................................. 6 1.2.2. Model Uncertainty ........................................................................................................ 7 1.2.3. Data Quality .................................................................................................................. 7 1.3. Discounting and Intergenerational Issues ...................................................................... 8 1.4. Scenario Analysis ........................................................................................................ 10 2. FisHeries and OtHer Ecosystem Services ............................................................................ 11 2.1. Lessons from Mainstream Dams in OtHer Countries and ImPlications for tHe Mekong River .................................................................................................................................. 11 2.2. Benefits and Risks of Aquaculture ............................................................................... 15 2.3. Other Ecosystem Services ........................................................................................... 16 2.3.1. Water Flows and Flood Patterns ................................................................................ 16 2.3.2. Non-fish Aquatic Species ............................................................................................ 19 2.3.3. Terrestrial Species ...................................................................................................... 19 3. Valuation of Changes in Ecosystem Services ...................................................................... 20 3.1. Valuation MetHodologies ............................................................................................ 20 3.2. Ecosystem Service Values of tHe Mekong Basin .......................................................... 20 3.2.1. Fisheries ...................................................................................................................... 21 3.2.2. Wetlands ..................................................................................................................... 24 3.2.3. Total Value of Ecosystem Services .............................................................................. 25 4. Improved Integration in an Evolving Planning Process ....................................................... 30 4.1. ImProved Integrated Systems Modeling ..................................................................... 30 4.2. Broader Scenario Planning .......................................................................................... 32 4.3. Future Data and Modeling ReQuirements ................................................................... 39 5. Conclusions and Recommendations .................................................................................. 39 References ............................................................................................................................ 44 ApPendix A: Potential Alternatives for Power Production .................................................... 51 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 51 1. HydroPower and Related Generating Resources ............................................................ 51 Planning Approaches for Water Resources Development in the Lower Mekong Basin ii Large-Scale Storage and Run-of-River Hydropower Impoundments .................................... 52 Diversion Hydropower Projects ............................................................................................ 53 Retrofit of Hydropower Generation to Existing Water-Control Structures .......................... 54 River Current Hydrokinetic Generation ................................................................................ 55 Ocean Wave Generation ...................................................................................................... 58 Salinity Gradient Generation ................................................................................................ 58 Ocean and Tidal Current Generation .................................................................................... 59 2. ComParison of Electric Power Resource Alternatives ..................................................... 60 Reference Fossil Fuel Generating Options ............................................................................ 61 Load-Side Options ................................................................................................................ 64 Comparisons of Resources ................................................................................................... 65 3. Observations Regarding Electricity Resource Planning and Recommendations for FurtHer ResearcH and DeveloPment on Promising Alternative Resources in tHe LMB ..................... 67 4. OtHer Renewable Generating OPtions ........................................................................... 71 Agricultural and Other Bio-Residues .................................................................................... 71 Dedicated Energy Crops ....................................................................................................... 71 Geothermal .......................................................................................................................... 73 Solar ...................................................................................................................................... 74 Wind ..................................................................................................................................... 75 Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion ...................................................................................... 75 ApPendix B: Social ImPacts and Recommendations for Future Assessments ......................... 77 1. InsigHts from Additional Resources ................................................................................ 77 2. Recommendations for Future Social ImPact Assessments in Mekong Water Resources Planning ............................................................................................................................ 82 Planning Approaches for Water Resources Development in the Lower Mekong Basin iii List of Acronyms AM Adaptive Management AusAID Australian Agency for International Development ADB Asian Development Bank BCA Benefit-Cost Analysis BDP Basin Development Plan BDP2 Basin Development Plan, Phase 2 CSP Concentrating Solar Power EGAT Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand ES Ecosystem Services FERC Federal Energy Regulatory Commission GDP Gross Domestic Product GPI Genuine Progress Indicator IWRM Integrated Water Resource Management IPP Independent Power Producer KBA Key Biodiversity Areas LMB