bioRxiv preprint first posted online November 30, 2014; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1101/012021; The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder. It is made available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license. Kain et al., 2014 – preprint version Bet-hedging, seasons and the evolution of behavioral diversity in Drosophila Jamey S. Kain1, Sarah Zhang1, Mason Klein2,3, Aravi Samuel2,3, Benjamin L. de Bivort1,2,4,† 1 – Rowland Institute at Harvard, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA. 2 – Center for Brain Science, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA. 3 – Department of Physics, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA. 4 – Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA. † – Corresponding author:
[email protected] Abstract Organisms use various strategies to cope with fluctuating environmental conditions. In diversified bet-hedging, a single genotype exhibits phenotypic heterogeneity with the expectation that some individuals will survive transient selective pressures. To date, empirical evidence for bet-hedging is scarce. Here, we observe that individual Drosophila melanogaster flies exhibit striking variation in light- and temperature-preference behaviors. With a modeling approach that combines real world weather and climate data to simulate temperature preference-dependent survival and reproduction, we find that a bet-hedging strategy may underlie the observed inter-individual behavioral diversity. Specifically, bet-hedging outcompetes strategies in which individual thermal preferences are heritable. Animals employing bet-hedging refrain from adapting to the coolness of spring with increased warm-seeking that inevitably becomes counterproductive in the hot summer. This strategy is particularly valuable when mean seasonal temperatures are typical, or when there is considerable fluctuation in temperature within the season.