Specia l Edition of Th e Atla ntic Tim es for th e 51st Mu nich secu rit y confer ence

February 2015 Munich, Germany

In this issue

Turbulent times 2 New NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg believes that the transatlantic community remains a unique source of stability in an era of unprecedented challenges to global security.

Increasing responsibilities 3 Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier discusses Germany’s changing policy role in international affairs.

New approaches 4, 5 The Charlie Hebdo attacks demonstrate the need to rethink the fight against violent Islamism in Europe. Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, vice-president of the European Parliament, and anti-terror analyst Elmar Thevessen with two different approaches.

Beyond Cuba 6 In his final two years, President Obama’s foreign policy options are dwindling. Events in Iran and North Korea could make or break his legacy, predicts the New York Times’ David E. Sanger.

World (re-)order 8, 9 In today’s networked multipolar world the West is still searching for the right strategy. Jean-Marie Guéhenno, president and CEO of International Crisis Group, on how to rebuild the global order.

General view 14 ISAF is a success story and Afghanistan has made extraordinary progress, argues German NATO General Hans-Lothar Domröse. Years of living dangerously He also explains the role of the new mission “Resolute Support.” Geopolitical shocks threaten to knock the international order off balance | By Theo Sommer

Broken peace 17-19 ast year marked the centenary Baghdadi’s Islamic State (alternatively The Minsk ceasefire agreement of Sept. 5 raped or forced into marriage, captured The Ukraine conflict threatens 25 years of the outbreak of World War I called IS, ISIS, ISI, ISIL or Da’ish) was ignored, circumvented or broken hostages gruesomely beheaded in front of post-Cold War stability in Europe. – the seminal catastrophe of brought large swaths of Syria and Iraq outright by both the Russian-backed of video cameras. Fanatical IS warriors, James D. Bindenagel calls for a review of the the 20th century. The mes- under its control; Abubakar Shekau’s rebels and the Kiev government. After many of them converts from Europe Charter of Paris. Didier Burkhalter and Ivica sageL everyone agreed upon at the time Boko Haram rocked Nigeria, Africa’s a short winter lull, the conflict flared and America, pose a grave threat to Dačić discuss the OSCE’s role in Eastern seemed as convincing as it was simple: most populous state, and its immediate up again in mid-January. Meanwhile Western countries. And tearing apart Ukraine. And Dmitri Trenin offers an insight Don’t ever sleepwalk to the edge of the neighbors. Older jihadist groupings like a real war is going on in Ukraine; Syria and Iraq, the Islamic State is in into the Kremlin point of view. abyss again; don’t let conflicts of inter- al-Qaeda and its various franchised off- 5.000 people have been killed since the process of obliterating the borders est and clashing foreign policy ambi- shoots created chaos in Yemen, Sudan, last spring. A week before the Munich drawn up by British and French diplo- Win win 20 tions get out of control; give diplomacy, Somalia and the Islamic Maghreb. Security Conference convened it was mats at the end of World War I. The old The EU’s dependence on Russian gas might give reason and give peace a chance. State revisionism, sectarian carnage still unclear whether diplomacy could order of the region is fracturing, and it grow. Not a problem, believes Friedbert The long and the short of it: step back and ethnic violence were the hallmarks find a way out of the crisis. may take decades of turmoil before a Pflüger: Gas could broker peace – Europe from the brink. of 2014. They will, alas, domi- new order takes shape. needs an affordable and reliable supply and The message was heard but not nate the headlines in 2015, too. Boko Haram was the third shock Russia a stable demand. heeded. 2014 was a year of shocks, The first shock last year was Theo Sommer is unsettling the civilized world. Actu- disruption and geopolitical fracturing. Putin’s annexation of Crimea in the executive editor ally it had started taking over large As Michael Ignatieff, the Canadian March. This was a brazen viola- of The Security Times Legacy costs 22 and The Atlantic Times chunks of northern Nigeria as long as liberal teaching at Harvard, aptly put tion of the fundamental post- five years ago, but it gained more wide- As NATO withdraws from Afghanistan, the and former editor it: “The tectonic plates of world order Cold War principle, anchored in of the German weekly spread attention only last April when continuing terrorism emanating from that are being pushed apart by the volcanic numerous international accords, Die Zeit. country and Pakistan has become a national its jihadists abducted 276 schoolgirls pressure of violence and hatred.” that European borders must not from the town of Chibok and turned security threat to someone else: China is archive Geopolitics has returned with a ven- inheriting Obama’s nightmare, believes be changed unilaterally, and them into sex slaves. Originally, Boko geance in the relations between nations, Ahmed Rashid. certainly not by the threat or Haram had focused on opposing west- as both Russia and China morphed use of force. Relations soured ern education, but then it concentrated from status quo powers to revisionist Boko rising 28 further when the Kremlin started send- Ukraine is a bequest of the past year on establishing an Islamic state. Abu- states staking out new territorial claims ing weapons, armored vehicles and to 2015. The same goes for the second bakar Shekau’s dream is an IS type Since last year, attacks by the jihadist in their neighborhood; spheres of inter- thousands of soldiers (“volunteers”) shock that rattled the West in 2014: of caliphate across Northern Nigeria, organization Boko Haram have reached new est and influence are once again con- to support the pro-Moscow insurgents the sudden rise of the Islamic State Chad, Cameroon and Niger. By now dimensions. The Nigerian state needs to act. cepts dominating international politics. in the east Ukrainian Donbas area. in Mesopotamia. By now, the self- he controls a territory roughly the size But military action alone cannot defeat Strident nationalism began to rear its The downing of the Malaysian air- anointed “Caliphate” has consolidated of Belgium. In relentless campaigns of the Islamist group, writes Annette Weber – ugly head in many parts of the world, liner MH–17 by Russian-armed sepa- its hold over a territory as large as the violence Boko Haram has devastated northeast Nigeria needs a share of the South’s triggering a dangerous arms race, par- ratists stiffened Western backbones US state of Nebraska. It controls oil scores of towns and villages, leaving wealth. ticularly in the Asia-Pacific region and, even more. The United States and the fields, conducts illicit though profitable 13,000 dead and driving more than one in its populist version, jeopardizing European Union imposed escalating trade across the Turkish border, fields a million people from their homes; about Cyber Security 33-39 even the cohesion of the European economic sanctions on Russia; NATO well-equipped army of around 30,000 200,000 of them fled to neighboring The Cyber Security Special examines in a Union’s historic integration project. suspended cooperation with it. No fighters and runs a professional cyber countries. variety of articles the state of international But states are no longer the only longer was Putin seen as a partner. PR operation. Sharia law is the writ of Nigeria’s political system is built on cyber affairs, from the double-edged role state game-changing actors on the world Berlin has since made innumerable the land. Ethnic and religious minori- pervasive corruption. The military seem actors play in the Great Cybergame to the stage. Non-state actors upended the efforts to broker a diplomatic solution ties – Kurds, Shiites, Yazidis – are ruth- responsibilities of every Internet-using citizen existing order in 2014. Abu Bakr-al to the crisis in Ukraine, all to no avail. lessly persecuted, women put down, continued on page 2 to protect data and communications.

hat future threat to order and flaws in existing collective international peace security structures. and security are we A call to ideas The 2015 Munich Security Confer- missing right now? ence offers both a chance to analyze AsW members of the global security By Wolfgang Ischinger these flaws and an opportunity to community, we are always keen to debate the way forward. Once again check whether we are overlooking ous crisis – but of Union, NATO, the this year, I am humbled and hon- key indicators or misunderstanding limited global sig- OSCE, numerous ored by how many decision-makers Wolfgang Ischinger, developments on the horizon. After nificance. Today, Germany’s former partnership agree- and other important members of the 2014, a catastrophic year in inter- the war in Eastern ambassador to the ments with Russia strategic community are joining us in national security policy, we need to Ukraine clearly is a US and the UK, is as well as norms the Bavarian capital. Surely, they can the Chairman of the reflect on our shortcomings. threat to European Munich Security established in Hel- and will come up with new ideas that After all, since we came together security, to funda- Conference since sinki, Paris, and can lead the way forward. in Munich a year ago, crucial chal- mental pan-Euro- 2008. elsewhere would In addition to the Security Times,

lenges and threats to international pean principles, msc ensure peace and a reliably excellent companion to the peace and security have emerged, and and to the global stability. But they Munich Security Conference, I hope they did so without many experts order as a whole. If a breakdown of did not – at least not in that part of that you will also take time to look or decision-makers appreciating such dimensions is possible in Europe, Europe that did not make it into the at the new Munich Security Report, their gravity initially. Most of all, of where we have the highest density of EU and NATO. That should make which aims at providing food for course, the war in Ukraine and the norms, agreements and institutions, us think twice about the quality thought for the key topics of our rise of the “Islamic State” are send- other regions are not likely to be of governance, stability, and secu- conference. ing shockwaves through the interna- more resilient to serious and deadly rity structures in other parts of the I am looking forward to the debates tional and regional security systems. conflict. world. in Munich, and I wish you a thought- Last year, in Munich, the turmoil We believed that the combination It is obvious that we are facing provoking read and a productive in Ukraine was considered a seri- of institutions such as the European serious cracks in the international weekend. n The Atlantic Times Times Atlantic The 335 Suite NW, Street M 2000 20036 DC, Washington, 2 February 2015

continued from page 1 The Security Times • Strategy NATO and other organizations. Years The implementation of the Readi- ness Action Plan is a key priority of living Standing strong as we prepare for the 2016 NATO summit in Warsaw. dangerously At the same time, we are making countries in our neighborhood both incapable and unwill- more resilient, by helping them ing to conduct any sustained in turbulent times to strengthen their defense capa- operation against the jihad- bilities, reform their security ists, while the political class, NATO responds to new threats and challenges and defense sectors, and achieve focusing on the February elec- greater interoperability with our tions, keeps studiously look- By Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg own forces. ing the other way. So does the Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia international community. The have all held democratic elec- UN Security Council has not tions. They have chosen Europe been convened to deal with and everything it represents. We the crisis; the African Union, need to help them to realize their already overwhelmed by a host aspirations. This is not only a of other emergencies, does not moral obligation, but a concrete particularly care about it; other security interest. By making these emerging powers aren’t paying countries more stable and better attention either. The destabili- able to resist outside pressure, zation of Africa’s most promis- we will make our own nations ing state is proceeding apace. more secure. Ukraine, the Islamic State We are also reaching out to and Boko Haram are not the South. We are helping coun- the only problems that 2014 tries like Jordan to improve their bequeathed to 2015. The con- security forces, and considering flict between Israel and the Pal- a request from Iraq to help build estinians, although no longer their defense capacity. the central issue in the Levant, For over twenty years, with keeps on festering; another strong leadership by Germany, we war appears more likely than have also worked hard to build a any diplomatic solution, two- partnership between NATO and state or otherwise. Except in Russia. We have worked together Tunisia, the Arab Spring has on issues ranging from counter- ended in the reestablishment narcotics and counter-terrorism of the regimes it sought to to submarine rescue and civil topple. Western intervention emergency planning. This was reduced Libya to anarchy. A also to Russia’s benefit. nuclear deal with Iran is a But Russia’s actions in Ukraine very vague prospect, given have violated international law, the fierce opposition of both thus breaking the trust at the core American and Iranian hard- of our cooperation. So NATO liners. Afghanistan’s future could not continue with busi- after ISAF, parlous at best, ness as usual. Last April, NATO will have a significant impact foreign ministers suspended all on the fractious relationship practical civilian and military between India and Pakistan. cooperation between NATO and Dangerous fault lines spell Russia, while keeping political trouble also in the Asian-Pacific channels of communication open. region. In the South China Sea I see no contradiction between as in the East China Sea, Beijing a strong NATO and dialogue has been pressing its territorial with Russia. On the contrary, claims – to the waters, atolls we can only effectively engage and riffs between Vietnam with Russia from a position of and the Philippines inside its strength. This policy of defense “nine-dash line” and to the and dialogue took Germany and Japanese-administered Senkaku NATO safely through the Cold islands (Diaoyutai in Chinese) War. Today, as we face the big- – somewhat less aggressively in gest security crisis since then, this recent months, but they have remains the right way forward. not been rescinded; they remain So we must keep NATO strong, a political tinderbox. The island both militarily and politically. dispute between Japan and Over the past 20 years, we have China can still produce peril- deployed NATO forces from the ous shockwaves. And the jury Balkans to Afghanistan, and from is still out when it comes to the the Mediterranean to the Indian question of whether the United Ocean. We took on this more States and China will be able active role against a backdrop of to manage their rivalry in the shrinking defense budgets. We Pacific peacefully. Their choice asked our forces to do more with is between confrontation or less. But this cannot continue cooperation, tension or détente, Inaugural visit to Berlin: indefinitely. alienation or co-evolution. NATO Secretary General Jens At our Wales summit, we Rising geostrategic competi- Stoltenberg meets German pledged to stop the cuts and to tion and intensifying national- Chancellor Angela Merkel in move towards the goal of spend- ism were two egregious trends Berlin16 | on Actors Jan. – Europe:14. Defense Matters? ing 2 percent of GDP on defense a

identified by this year’s World hu as our economies grow. We also n Economic Forum in Davos. agreed to get better value for go/Xi ma Insurgencies, secessionism will European defense spending by country and subregion i what we spend, and to arrive at keep battering what’s left of (2014) a more balanced sharing of costs the international order. Ter- hese are turbulentThe times Balkans we 0.9% faceTurkey other challenges, like mis- summit, to make our forces more The Readiness Action Plan and responsibilities across our rorism is escalating, conflict forOther Euro-Atlantic Southern Europe secu- 1.1%sile proliferation, cyberterrorism1.3% Other Southeastern agile, andEurope able to deploy quickly also involves the creation of a alliance. is on the rise. Yet there is no rity. We face manyGreece and energy3.5% cut-offs. Far from whenever and wherever they are spearhead force to enable us to This cannot be achieved over- Spain 2.0% one who could set things right. challenges, from many emerging threats, they are nowUnited needed, Kingdom in the most significant respond even quicker to emerg- night. But neither is it "mission 5.2% 21.5% directions.T To the South, we see part and parcel of our security boost to our collective defense The United Nations, stymied ing threats, as well as setting up impossible." And despite the by the animosities between the extremism advancing inItaly Syria and environment. in the last 25 years. We are also a command and control presence economic crisis, some allies, five veto powers, have all but Iraq, turmoil spreading across8.4% In this unpredictable world, the enhancing NATO’s military pres- in several eastern allied nations. especially in Eastern Europe, are dropped out of the picture. In North Africa and the Middle East, transatlantic community remains ence in Eastern Europe. All the measures we are taking are starting to stop the cuts and set the United States, minimal- and returning foreign fighters a unique source of stability – so Over the past year, we defensive, proportionate, and in out a pathway to increase defense Other Northern Europe 3.4% ism and retrenchment are the posing a threat to us here at home. it is vital that we keep it strong. deployed more planes in the line with our international com- spending. These are important order of the day; gridlock pre- To the East, RussiaNorway has become2.4% At our NATO summit in Wales air, more ships at sea, and more mitments. steps – and every step counts. 2.5% vents bold new departures. A an unpredictable,Sweden revisionist last September, we charted a clear18.5% troops on the ground – and we To respond to the sort of hybrid We live in turbulent times. But France series of ill-fated interventions power. It is tearing up the inter-4.4% course to meet the challenges we will continue to rotate forces warfare we have seen in Ukraine, I firmly believe that we can emerge has strengthened the animus nationalOther rule Centralbook, using Europe military face. We are now turning deci- through the eastern part of our we also agreed to improve infor- stronger. If Europe and North against military engagements force to annex Crimea, destabiliz-3.6% sions into action. alliance for as long as necessary. mation sharing, develop exercises America continue to stand strong Poland far afield and bolstered the ing Eastern Ukraine, and intimi- We are implementing3.7% the Readi- We are also increasing the fre- that address hybrid threats, and together. If we defend our values. 15.3% 2.3% n reluctance to put “boots on dating its neighbors. In addition, ness Action Plan agreedNetherlands at the quency of our exercises. strengthen coordination between And value our defense. Actors – NATO: Back Home for Good? | 19 Actors – NATO: Back Home for Good? | 19 the ground.” Europe, in turn, Germany Other Western Europe is weakened by its financial crisis, a fraying political con- Other Western Europe – Belgium, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg Other Central Europe – Austria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Switzerland NATO: Facts andIs NATO figures still essential? IsWhat NATO should still essential?NATO be engaged in? What should NATO be engaged in? sensus and the growing unpop- Other Northern Europe – Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania ularity of its leaders. Other Southern Europe – Cyprus, Malta, Portugal Percent Percent Percent (fromThe Balkans the – Albania, Munich Bosnia-Herzegovina, Security Croatia, Report FYROM, Montenegro, 2015) Serbia, Slovenia In this situation, the world Respondents from Respondents from Respondents from Other Southeastern Europe – Romania, Bulgaria US EU Turkey US EU Turkey US EU can hardly expect any great Source: The International Institute for Strategic Studies9 100 100 leaps forward in 2015. It will Territorial 59 Territorial 59 have to settle for piecemeal Defense spending changes in Europe (2010–2014) defense of defense of Percent; constant prices and exchange rate engineering to prevent the 80 Europe80 73 Europe 73 worst. n Balkans -22.2 Military opera- Military opera- tions outside of 49 tions outside of 49 60 60 the US and the US and Southern Europe -18.4 43 43 Europe Europe 40 40 Western Europe -8.4 Providing arms 53 Providing arms 53 Publisher: Detlef W. Prinz Executive Editor: Theo Sommer or training 43 or training 43 Central Europe -2.6 Editors: Peter H. Koepf, Kevin Lynch, 20 20 Lutz Lichtenberger Providing arms Providing arms Senior Art Director: Paul M. Kern Northern Europe 4.0 or training to 55 or training to 55 Layout: Manuel Schwartz, Mike Zastrow 0 countries0 like 41 countries like 41 Times Media GmbH Southeastern Europe 5.2 Ukraine Ukraine Tempelhofer Ufer 23-24 2004 06 08 10 12 2014 2004 06 08 10 12 2014 10963 Berlin, Germany Stability in 53 Stability in 53 www.times-media.de While significant cuts have also occurred in Western Europe, with aggregate real outlays down by 8.4% over Afghanistan Afghanistan [email protected] four years, Western Europe remains Europe’s highest spending sub-region, accounting for almost half of 57 57 Phone +49 30-2150-5400 regional outlays (46.0%). Fax +49 30-2150-5447 Source: The International Institute for Strategic Studies10 Source: The German Marshall Fund of the United Source: The German Marshall Fund of the United Source: The German Marshall Fund of the United ISSN 2191-6462 States (GMF)5 States (GMF)56 States (GMF)6 Press deadline: January 30, 2015 Wales defense spending pledge – who needsWales to do defense what? spending pledge – who needs to do what? Based on defense spending levels in 2013 Based on defense spending levels in 2013

Overall defense spending OverallInvestments defense spending Investments Continue to spend a minimum of 2% of GDP on ContinueContinue toto spendspend amore minimum than 20%of 2% of of their GDP on Continue to spend more than 20% of their defense defensedefense budgets on major equipment defense budgets on major equipment Halt any decline in defense spending, aim to HaltAim anyto increase decline intheir defense annual spending, investments aim to to 20% Aim to increase their annual investments to 20% increase defense expenditure in real terms, aim to increaseor more defenseof total defense expenditure expenditures in real terms, aim to or more of total defense expenditures move towards the 2% guideline within a decade move towards the 2% guideline within a decade

Source: MSC, based on NATO data7 Source: MSC, based on NATO data7 February 2015 3

The Security Times • Strategy

Talking policy : German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and US Secretary of State John Kerry at a summit of foreign ministers in Brussels in April 2014.

picture alliance/dpa/epa/Viginia Mayo/Pool hen I returned to Back in February of last year, the Federal For- the foreign ministers of Germany, eign Office in Poland and France went to Kiev December 2013, I German foreign policy to mediate in order to prevent initiatedW an open discussion pro- a bloody civil war. At Germa- cess on Germany’s role in the ny’s initiative, the Organization world, on the scope and limits of for Security and Co-operation in our responsibility and on the aims Europe (OSCE) took on a leading and instruments of our foreign in a changing world role in monitoring and disengaging policy. I did not know at the time military groups. Moreover, Ger- how urgent the question of our many repeatedly provided impetus country’s international responsi- The Ukraine crisis is the first serious test of Berlin’s new role for the contact group in which the bility would become. separatists and the Ukrainian Gov- Since then one crisis has fol- By German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier ernment hold discussions. lowed another in quick succes- Yet our message to Russia was sion: in Ukraine the conflict with of German foreign policy, they conducted in the spring of last When I began my second term the world from the perspective also clear: Anyone who arbitrarily separatists in the East and the reflect even higher expectations of year by the Körber Foundation, in office as German foreign min- of the other. changes borders in violation of added tensions sparked by the our country in the future. which surveyed Germans’ opin- ister, I put the following theory As foreign minister, I am tasked international law should expect involvement of Russia; in the Some of the experts called on ions on foreign policy. Thirty- on the table: Germany is too big with putting the phrase “more a clear and united response from Middle East, the civil war in Germany to “assume the role seven percent of participants were and economically too strong to responsibility” into practice. Yet Europe. Applying political pres- Syria, the fight against ISIS in of model Europeans” in order in favor of Germany taking on merely comment on foreign policy it is also a challenge for academic sure on the one hand, including Iraq and the violent confronta- to “revitalize the EU,” or “as more responsibility and interven- from the sidelines. We must dare and civil society debate in this the European Union’s decision to tions between Israel and Hamas. the recognized leader of Europe, ing more in international crises to shoulder greater responsibility country: Are we doing the right impose sanctions and the deci- In Mali and in the Central African internationally, we must engage thing? Are we doing it in the sions taken at the NATO summit Republic, too, we are faced with earlier, more decisively and more right way? in Wales, whilst maintaining dia- serious crises, not to mention the Germany substantively. “More responsibil- We cannot simply expound a logue and open communication outbreak of the Ebola virus in ity” is neither a call for military new foreign policy approach – channels on the other are both part West Africa. We need to prepare does not shun adventures nor does it imply a that is something we need to and parcel of a responsible policy. ourselves for the state of crisis renunciation of the long-standing explore together, something that Let it be noted that it is not our becoming the norm. international fundamental principles of our for- will never be static or final. The aim to run Russia into the ground The pace at which our world eign policy. challenge will always lie in find- economically. What we want in is changing is likely to accelerate responsibility. In discussions on our coun- ing the right answer, in each indi- the future is for Russia to enjoy even further. And globalization try’s role I repeatedly hear the vidual situation, to the question economic strength and to work unleashes its own antithetical to change the course of world and conflicts. However, 60 per- argument that the phrase “more of what are our country’s inter- with us in a spirit of partnership forces: instability, isolationism, history.” Others said Germany cent were against this. responsibility” in reality simply ests and our chances of influenc- to help shape the process of glo- violent religious or ethnic fun- should act as an “intercultural I often encounter this skepticism veils the pursuit of policies that ing the outcome of events. balization and a peaceful future damentalism and an increasing mediator” as well as a “bridge” when talking to the public. It serve our interests. It is true that In the short term, that applies for our continent. number of failed states. In an age between the rich North and the emerges time and again in public defining our interests is part of the to how we deal with urgent In terms of European security of crisis and conflict one could be “rising South.” It should make debates, above all when it comes answer to the question of when, crises. But in the long term it our policy must be to overcome tempted to say: now is the time to “Russia more European” and to military intervention or supply- where and how we should take also applies to the question of paralysis and confrontation not by act, not to talk. “America more multilateral.” ing weapons. on more responsibility. where and how we can best yielding, but by seeking a path for- Yet I still think that debate is A series of experts also took up Does that mean that Germans However, the second ques- help to develop and maintain ward. We want to resume discus- necessary, because I believe that my invitation to voice candid crit- shun international responsibility? tion I believe we need to ask is. structures for our international sions step by step – between the EU there are deeper causes behind icism. “Germany tends to react I do not think so. If you look and Where can we as Germans actu- order, upon which the security and the Eurasian Economic Union, this array of crises. If we do not to crises rather than decisively listen carefully, then you notice between NATO and Russia and in investigate them, we pass up the embracing and shaping its role in that in the surveys, and the many the OSCE, too, in which Germany chance to develop the ability to the world”, wrote one. Another debates which have been con- Germans will take on a particular responsi- act and react better in the future. stated that strategic thinking is ducted over recent months, our bility for Europe’s collective secu- I have gained the impression that “not very developed” in Berlin. citizens also seem to have very high want to see us rity with its 2016 Chairmanship. not only has the world yet to find Some say we practice “ruthless expectations. They want Germany We need to re-activate and a new order, Germany too has yet realpolitik,” whilst others call us to engage, but not really militarily. use diplomacy to mediate redevelop the infrastructure for to fully find its feet in this new, “naive and idealistic”. They want us to convince them a policy of small steps, we must changed world. It is clear that these external that we have effective instruments wherever possible. create channels, forums and So where does German foreign views (which can be read at www. to recognize crises early and to pre- mechanisms to gradually restore policy come up short and what review2014.de) differ greatly vent, manage and solve them. They ally make a difference? What we and prosperity of our country, lost trust and seek political solu- needs to be changed? One year according to the author’s view- want to see us use diplomacy to need are the courage and willing- as well as peace in the world, tions. When providing impetus for ago, I put those two questions to point. But there is a common mediate wherever possible. They ness to get involved, in addition directly depend. de-escalation we always remain experts from Germany and abroad denominator: people have very want us to provide humanitarian the provision of the right instru- Responsibility is always about aware that we are not alone. at the beginning of a project called high expectations of Germany. assistance to people in need. And ments to make things happen. concrete action. From the begin- Germany fulfills its responsibility ‘Review 2014 – A Fresh Look At first glance, this contrasts they, too, argue amongst them- Foreign policy can achieve some- ning of the Ukraine conflict, the for security on two levels: by devel- at German Foreign Policy.’ The with a palpable reluctance selves over the right foreign policy thing even in conflicts that seem German government has taken oping ideas and initiatives whilst responses are very interesting and amongst people in Germany for approach. There are very differ- deadlocked – through sound on responsibility and, together persistently advocating consensus as extensive as they are contradic- our country to engage more on ent perspectives and priorities, not judgement, patience, integrity with European partners, has been and a united stance within the EU tory. Alongside a great deal of the foreign policy front. These only between different parties but and the unfaltering willingness firmly committed to mediation and NATO. That remains our recognition for the achievements findings are mirrored in a poll also between different generations. to negotiate and to strive to see and de-escalation. challenge in 2015. n 4 February 2015

The Security Times • Strategy ool P / d i m r a i s cd po a am er M t e P /efe C / a a eb/ep eb/ep aw aw p p d d / / a a p p d d e/ e/ anc anc lli lli a a ure- ure- ct ct pi pi

he knife that took One answer is provided by US Theo van Gogh’s life geostrategist Thomas P.M. Bar- also held a slip of paper nett. He asserts that terrorism fixed to his chest: a per- Radical rethink is a side effect of globalization. sonalT message from Mohammed Therefore we should advance glo- Bouyeri, the killer. It was the balization according to new rules desperate attempt of a terror- We need new approaches in our response to terrorism | By Elmar Thevessen instead of continuing to uphold ist to explain himself and his the structures, thinking and crime, a cold-blooded attack on compensated their that Islamic Sharia instruments of power of a back- an individual and on freedom of low self-esteem by and all interpreta- ward-looking national statism expression. “There shall be no living out violent tions of the Quran and long-obsolete imperialism. forgiveness for the unjust. Only fantasies and justi- that glorify violence We should target huge resources the sword should be raised against fying their crimes have no place in a on those states that have become them. No discussion, no demon- with a book they liberal, democratic decoupled from economic devel- stration, no parades, no petitions. had hardly read, let society. opment, are poorly integrated Only death shall distinguish truth alone understood. The second task and often ruled by authoritarian from lies,” he wrote. The parallels are is far more difficult: governments, to tie them into On Nov. 2, 2004, Dutch film- no coincidence. Eliminating the the globalized, networked world maker Theo van Gogh was cut Practically all com- double standards with all means – in which Bar- down, because in his short film pleted, prevented in foreign policy, nett includes economic, financial, “Submission” he projected quotes and failed terrorist which talks freedom technological, social, legal, politi- from the Quran onto the back of attacks since Sep- and justice but, all cal and military methods. a naked, abused Muslim woman. tember 11, 2001 – too often, results This would be a policy of He wanted to provoke a con- in Madrid, London, in the opposite. modernization, of global com- ca a troversy over the oppression of Stockholm, Tou- b The war in Iraq, munication, free global trade, a women in Islam. The terrible louse, Brussels, e/ the human rights human rights, political participa- anc lli irony of the deed was that the Frankfurt, Heath- a violations in Guan- tion and responsible governance. killer Bouyeri had earlier been row, Berlin, Bonn, ure tánamo and Abu Managing all this would require ct active in a youth center and a local Cologne and else- pi Ghraib, the CIA’s more than a general assembly of Islamist terror in Europe: Aftermath of the 2004 Madrid train bombings (top left); wreckage of a magazine for the integration of where – share these bus targeted in the 2005 London bombings (top right) and the Charlie Hebdo attackers, Paris. torture prisons – national states with their differ- young people. That was before, traits. The soaring all these have pro- ing, particular interests. The UN out of frustration and rage over numbers of potential assailants two chief motivations that breed one. We cannot allow Salafists duced more new terrorists than should be complemented, per- his fruitless search for work, he and rising frequency of attacks extremist ideology in the housing to be the best social workers in the “global war on terror” could haps even replaced, by an infra- became an Islamist. point out our own failures. More projects of Madrid, Brussels and our countries: They offer young possibly defeat. structure of regional networks His victim, Theo van Gogh, had than 13 years after 9/11, we London, the banlieues of Paris people the appearance of respect, That we reached for the wrong based on the common interests himself worked in a youth center, are still fighting the symptoms and the urban turf of Berlin- orientation, and a feeling of self- tools after 9/11 has to do with a of neighboring states. This would shot a film about the dead-end of Islamist terrorism instead of Wedding, Duisburg-Marxloh esteem and belonging. fateful misinterpretation of the be the only way to meet the new lives of Moroccan youth gangs removing the fertile ground on and Frankfurt-Dietzenbach. We can do that much better. A attacks in New York and Wash- challenges of an integrated, glo- and suggested – to no avail – con- which it arises. The authors of the study had no coalition forged from these kids’ ington. They heralded new chal- balized world. cepts for better integration proce- It is a twofold failure, if we intention of finding excuses for environments – parents, family, lenges in a globalized, multipolar We have already wasted a great dures to the authorities. That was believe MI5. In April 2004, a Islamist-motivated crimes. They friends, schools, religious congre- world that can no longer be man- opportunity to to take the first before he made his tasteless film confidential study by the Brit- wanted cogent explanations so as gations, clubs, associations and aged with the instruments and step in this direction. The Arab to provoke a reaction. Two men ish intelligence service identi- to find more effective approaches companies, with the full support rules of the bipolar age – which revolutions of 2011 could have who actually wanted the same fied two chief reasons for the in the fight against terrorism. But of the social, youth, employment amounted to a policy of preventive made possible the political and thing encountered each other as growing radicalization of young their analysis fell on the deaf aggression. Instead of economic participation of mil- killer and victim. Muslims in Western Europe. ears of politicians. These wanted devising new models, lions of people – if the Western Michel Houellebecq’s latest Firstly, “Muslims are experi- tougher laws, cameras in mosques, in the following years world had supported the estab- Elmar Thevessen is novel “Submission,” which encing high levels of disadvan- new surveillance tools, instead of deputy editor-in-chief we allowed ourselves lishment of regional alliances and satirizes Islam, was published tage in terms of employment, launching programs for frustrated and Head of News at the German to be dictated by fear. the entire region’s development. in France on the very day that qualifications and deprivation… young people with no prospects. public television channel ZDF. We expended all our Only a fraction of the €14 bil- jihadist terrorists slaughtered They have a significant concern That’s hardly surprising, as the He has authored several books energy to protect lion pledged at the G8 summit in on international terrorism. the Charlie Hebdo cartoonists about discrimination" the report latter would both be harder to ourselves from pos- Deauville in May 2011 has actu- and journalists. Again, it was an said. Especially third generation set up and encounter widespread sible threats and risks ally been put to use. private attack on freedom of speech. And members of migrant families are resistance in an increasingly anti- instead of trying to The more people’s hopes are again, the killers were Islamists increasingly frustrated at being Islamic society. positively influence disappointed, the more fertile trying to justify their contempt socially and economically dis- Without a doubt, state pressure conditions in the ground is produced for fresh for others as part of a lofty strug- advantaged, experiencing poor with the help of the police and and law enforcement authorities – world, so that recruiters of ter- extremism. “We don’t look for gle against injustice. In inter- educational opportunities and intelligence services is indispen- must dig away at extremism’s fer- rorism would fail to find fertile the key where we lost it. Instead views with French media they living conditions. sible, but depending exclusively tile soil by creating opportunities. ground. we look where the streetlight is portrayed their deeds as retribu- Added to that, according to the on it could even worsen the prob- The French government has What, in positive terms, do we shining,” as a senior German poli- tion – for the Prophet, the victims study, is mass disillusionment lem, so that in the end we can just approved the first steps. Ger- want to achieve? That is a far cymaker once put it. To finally of the Assad regime in Syria and based on “a perception of ‘double keep attacks at bay only through many and other states should more important question than learn from the mistakes and expe- the Western interventions in Iraq standards’ British foreign policy, shootouts in our cities and tar- follow. They must also stand asking what we want to prevent. riences of the past 13 years since and Afghanistan. where democracy is preached but geted killings in warzones. up courageously against the lie And at present, politicians, schol- 9/11, we must ensure that we shed Theo van Gogh’s killer and oppression of the 'Ummah' (the That is why we need a radical of the alleged Islamization of ars and strategic thinkers have sufficient light to find the key. The the Paris gunmen considered one nation of believers) is prac- rethink of our terrorism response, Europe: The Muslim share of the few answers. They know that the senseless murders in Paris must themselves victims of a society tised or tolerated, e.g. in Pales- which should be aimed at the population will remain under 10 world needs a new economic and become a turning point for a long in which they had failed to move tine, Iraq, Afghanistan, Kashmir, two chief reasons for radicaliza- percent over the long term. At the security architecture. But what overdue strategic reconsideration forward. They were losers who Chechnya:" These are the same tion. The first task is the easier same time, they must make clear would it look like? of the struggle against terror. n

The New Deaths / Attacks by Victim Status & Country Deaths / Attacks by Group Jihadism: Civilian Military Police Official Jihadist Unknown Total Attacks Group Deaths Attacks A Global Iraq 815 562 33 13 292 55 1770 233 Islamic State 2206 306 Nigeria 681 28 3 15 59 0 786 27 Boko Haram 801 30 Snapshot Afghanistan 124 285 95 21 248 9 782 152 Taliban 720 150 AQAP 410 36 A look at the scale and geogra- Syria 151 372 0 2 166 2 693 110 phical distribution of deaths Al Shabab 266 41 caused by jihadist groups, Yemen 138 235 0 0 37 0 410 37 networks, and individuals in Jabhat al Nusra 257 34 November 2014. Incidents were Somalia 30 145 1 22 18 0 216 37 Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan 146 32 recorded as ‘jihadist’ when they were claimed by, or could be Pakistan 70 35 13 11 76 7 212 35 Jamaat ul-Ahrar 60 1 attributed to, groups that meet Philippines 12 14 0 0 24 0 50 9 Haqqani Network 59 1 the following definition: “A modern revolutionary political Kenya 48 0 2 0 0 0 50 4 Abu Sayyaf 41 5 ideology mandating the use of Libya 3 36 0 0 0 0 39 12 Ansar al-Shariah Libya 39 12 violence to defend or promote Lashkar-e-Toiba 18 3 a particular, very narrow vision Cameroon 3 2 0 0 10 0 15 3 of Sunni Islamic understan- Bangsamoro Islamic 9 4 dings.” This definition excludes India 5 3 0 0 5 0 13 2 Freedom Fighters Shia militant groups such as Egypt 0 5 0 0 0 0 5 2 Hezbollah that justify fighting Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis 5 2 in the name of jihad but are Niger 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 Jundullah 4 1 located outside the Sunni tradition. Total 2080 1723 147 84 935 73 5042 664 MUJAO 1 1 Source: ICSR February 2015 5

ihad has arrived in The Security Times • Strategy Europe. For more than Islamist terrorist attacks ten years, after the devas- tating attacks in Madrid Toothless tigers against Western targets J in 2004 and in London one year later, the European public The Paris attacks vividly demonstrate the need Sept. 11, 2001: New York/Washington/Pennsylvania has regarded the security situa- Three passenger jets hijacked and flown into the twin towers tion through a foggy lens, with for more cooperation between Europe’s intelligence services of the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. A fourth hijacked abstract, difficult-to-pinpoint sources of danger. In isolated By Alexander Graf Lambsdorff plane crashes into a field in Pennsylvania. Nearly 3,000 dead. cases, suspects were arrested and possible attacks prevented. April 11, 2002: Djerba This simmering threat took on Bombing of a synagogue on the Tunisian island of Djerba. 21 more definite contours only with dead, including 14 German tourists. Al-Qaeda claims respon- the Paris attacks that began on sibility. Jan. 7. Tragically, we became wit- nesses to the first wide-ranging October 12, 2002: Bali assaults motivated by militant Bombs explode in two nightclubs in Bali. 202 dead, including six Islamism since the beginning of Germans and more than 80 Australians, 303 injured. The bombers the civil war in Syria – and they were members of the Jemaah Islamiyah movement, which aims will not remain the only bid to to make Indonesia an Islamic state based on sharia law. attack our liberal Western system of values. Let’s not forget that the November 28, 2002: Mombasa target was not just France but the entire European community of Three suicide bombers detonate a car bomb outside an Israeli- values. Therefore, the EU must owned tourist hotel in Mombasa (Kenya). 13 dead, 80 injured. A also find common answers to the group calling itself the Army of Palestine claims responsibility threats of fundamentalism and for the attack. extremism. It is hardly surprising that some May 16, 2003: Casablanca immediately attempted to make A series of suicide attacks against Jewish institutions and a political hay of this tragedy. Spanish restaurant in Casablanca. 33 killed (plus 12 attackers). Germany’s right-wing populists Claimed by Salafiya Jihadiya. announced less than four hours after the attacks that they saw November 15/20, 2003: Istanbul themselves justified in their Islamo­ Attacks on two synagogues, the British Consulate and a branch phobia. The day after the shoot- of a British bank. More than 60 dead, hundreds injured. Groups ings, Marine Le Pen, leader of affiliated with al-Qaeda claim responsibility. France’s far-right Front National, called for a national referendum March 11, 2004: Madrid to re-instate the death penalty. In France as in Germany, debates A series of bombings on four commuter trains in Madrid: nearly over new surveillance tools have 191 killed, more than 1800 injured. The bombers are believed to gained urgency. have modeled themselves on al-Qaeda. Yet it is clear that only a dis- passionate analysis of the situ- September 9, 2004: Jakarta ation and a reasoned approach A car bomb explodes outside the Australian Embassy in Jakarta. can bring success. The problem 9 dead, 173 injured. The bombers are believed to be from is hardly a lack of intelligence Jemaah Islamiyah, which is linked with Osama Bin Laden’s or security services in Europe,

iC al-Qaeda. or inadequate lists of suspicious am persons. Instead, the core of the or P July 7, 2005: London problem is the lack of coordina- go/ ma i an Bomb attacks on three underground lines and a bus in London. tion in Europe’s anti-terrorism A city in mourning: a sea of flowers outside the Charlie Hebdo building in Paris. 52 killed (plus four suicide bombers), at least 150 injured. All four efforts. attackers are so-called “homegrown terrorists.” A group calling As stridently as law enforce- As a reaction to the Paris and insights could not take place and Europol must be expanded. ment officials call for new instru- attacks, a structural reform of mutually – not least so that inves- That way, suspected terrorists itself “the secret organization of al-Qaeda in Europe“ claims the ments, tougher laws and more European intelligence services is tigators can be kept at the same could be better monitored across attacks as revenge for British military intervention in Afghanistan manpower, they practically fall more needed than ever. IntCen, information level across borders. the EU. Instead of having to put and Iraq. silent when asked to show how the EU Intelligence Analysis Joint analysis would allow us to together a patchwork quilt, investi- far data sharing, concrete col- Center, has yet to progress beyond recognize patterns and connec- gators could have a more complete October 2005: Bali laboration and joint investigations the status of a toothless tiger. tions that would not be recognized picture at their disposal. Suspicious Several bombings in Kuta and Jimbaran. 20 dead (and 3 attack- have progressed. For this reason Information gathering is limited in a purely national evaluation. activities would be noticed sooner. ers). The attackers were Jemaah Islamiyah members. it would be wrong to succumb to to publicly available sources, dip- The European treaties would By integrating capacities, the Pavlovian reflex and engage lomats’ reports, contributions by not need rewriting and of course staffing shortages in individual July 31, 2006: Cologne in even more data hoarding. The member states on specific requests every intelligence service would member states could also be com- Two suitcase bombs deposited in regional trains by the so-called Paris attacks would not have been still protect its sources, pensated temporarily. The two "Sauerland Group" fail to explode. But Germany, too, now faces prevented by this kind of data especially when it’s a brothers in Paris had been under the reality of its own homegrown terrorists. dragnet. The Kouachi brothers’ matter of human intel- observation for years. But in the names were included both on Alexander Graf Lambsdorff ligence. But member spring of 2014 the monitoring was August 10, 2006: London the US terrorism watch database is vice-president of the states must commit to discontinued because the two had European Parliament and (TIDE) and international no-fly sharing sensitive data. not been conspicuous and too few British police prevent attacks on transatlantic flights. The inter- a member of Germany's Free national rules governing liquids in carry-on baggage are subse- lists – and had been for years. Democratic Party (FDP). Legal frameworks investigators were available for No one could dispute that the would have to be the task. quently tightened. Two years later, five suspected terrorists admit terror has gained a European drawn up at the The bottom line is that more to having planned the bomb attacks. Sabine Schründer dimension. Weapons used in the national level for the closely meshed operations have Paris attacks were procured in authorities and duties become indispensible in the fight December 11, 2007: Algiers Brussels, the cell in Verviers was of the respective ser- against international terrorism. A bomb explodes on a school bus outside the high court and in a steered from Greece, and incendi- as well as satellite data from the vice and its democratic super- Protecting the population from tanker truck in front of the offices of the UN refugee aid agency ary Islamic preachers maintain EU satellite center. vision. That’s because IntCen terrorist threats goes hand in hand UNHCR. 22 dead (including 17 UN employees) 177 injured. Al- contacts stretching from Ger- Germany’s Federal Intelligence already operates as a unit of the with the need to defend the pri- Qaeda claims responsibility. many, France and Belgium to Service, the BND, for example, European External Action Service vacy of law-abiding citizens. The Spain, the UK and other countries. provides only the absolute neces- as an interface for various national principle of law-based rule and November 26, 2008: Mumbai On the one side, more and more sities: information for “official intelligence services. Yet it is itself the liberties we enjoy through our Islamist terrorists armed with machine guns and grenades sources seek information on com- use,” which is the lowest level of not based on a legal foundation or constitution cannot be sacrificed storm the Taj Mahal Hotel, the main rail station, a tourist café pletely innocent citizens, while secrecy. One doesn’t need to be a a clear mandate from the member on the altar of boundless obses- and a religious center. Shooting continues for three days. on the other authorities repeat- genius to recognize that no effec- states. It also lacks accountability sion with security. All our actions 166 dead. edly neglect to include significant tive joint terrorism lookout can be toward national legislatures and should be guided by the same prin- investigation results on individu- conducted this way. the European Parliament. ciple: as much action for security December 11, 2010: Stockholm als who represent a clear and Yet there is no reason why the To enhance terrorism preven- as necessary, and as few restric- present danger. analysis of raw intelligence data tion, the competencies of Eurojust tions on civil rights as possible. n Two bombs explode in the city center, one probably prematurely while still being carried by the bomber. Two injured. The lone bomber was an Iraqi-born Swedish citizen with a background of radical Islamism.

Foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq Finland July 18, 2012, Burgas 50-70 Number of foreign fighters per origin country, Norway Attack on Israeli tourists at Burgas airport (Bulgaria). 5 Israelis as of December 2014 killed, along with their bus driver and the bomber, 32 injured. 60 Sweden Russia Bulgarian authorities blame Hezbollah. 150-180 800-1,500 September 11, 2011: Benghazi Denmark Militants attack the US diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya. UK 100-150 Four American citizens killed, including Ambassador Chris Ste- Ireland 500-600 vens. In June 2014 US special forces arrest Ahmed Abu Chattala 30 Netherlands as the “key figure,” founder and leader of the Islamist terrorist Canada 200-250 Germany group Ansar al Sharia. 100 500-600 Ukraine Belgium 50 April 15, 2013: Boston 440 Two bombs concealed in backpacks explode near the finish line US of the Boston marathon. The bombs were made from pressure 100 France Switzerland Austria cookers filled with gunpowder, nails and ball bearings. 3 dead, 100-150 264 injured. 1,200 40 Serbia 50-70 June 20, 2013: Mogadishu Bosnia Kosovo Suicide bombing on a United Nations building. 18 dead and 18 Italy 330 injured. The radical Islamist militia Al Shabaab claims responsi- 80 100-150 Turkey bility. Spain Albania 600 50-100 90 This list does not include the many Islamist attacks in the Philip- pines, Afghanistan, India, Pakistan, Somalia, Iraq, Yemen, Saudi Macedonia Arabia and Algeria, on churches in Nigeria and Kenya or on 12 Egyptian and Jordanian tourist hotels. Source: ICSR 6 February 2015

The Security Times • Strategy

even years ago, running coming isolation and engaging as an improbable long- with the world, there are also shot for president, Barack those in Tehran who oppose any Obama grew accustomed nuclear deal. We should not give Sto hearing the charge that he was them new arguments.’’ The nego- “naïve” for promising to engage tiation is meant to test whether some of American’s fiercest adver- the forces of modernization can saries, from the Castros of Cuba overcome those who see Iran’s to the mullahs of Iran. national identity defined by its Now, in the last quarter of opposition to the Great Satan his presidency, the question is USA. That experiment is still whether engagement – some underway, but for now, the con- successful, some not – will end servatives appear to be winning. up defining his foreign policy This collision of forces will not legacy. Over the past six years be resolved during Obama’s presi- he has scored two surprising vic- dency. At most he would have the tories, with Cuba and Myanmar, power to suspend some sanctions reversing decades of enmity. The as part of a broader deal; only next two years will be focused Congress could permanently lift on the two states that are far them. The Iranians would have more hostile to Western interest, no guarantee the sanctions would far better armed, and far more ever go away. And without that strategically important: Iran and guarantee, it is likely the Iranian North Korea. Republican Guard Corps and the The betting in Washington is clerics will continue to rule the that the magic that worked so day. well on the burned out gener- There is no equivalent nego- als in Rangoon and the young tiation underway with North Cubans eager to make it 90 miles Korea, the most isolated of dic- to America’s shores will fail when tator states. For all his enthusi- it comes to changing the mindset asm about engagement, President of Kim Jong Un and Ayatollah Ali Obama has never seen an opening Khamenei. Both Iran and North for engagement with the North; Korea still define their legitimacy its decision to test a nuclear by casting the United States as weapon in the first months of their avowed enemy. For both his presidency “turned us all into countries, in different ways, defi- North Korea hawks,” one of his ance of the United States is part former senior aides said. Obama’s of the national narrative and approach of “strategic patience” national identity. Yet in Iran – essentially waiting for isolation President Obama has been striv- to change the minds of the North ing to make a breakthrough that Koreans – has failed to change the even he assesses is a “less than country’s behavior. If anything, 50/50 chance,” and in North it has become more provocative. Korea, though he will not admit More recently the North has it, to help speed a collapse of the found a way to deliver a mes- regime. sage to Washington that is far In both cases, expectations are more realistic than threatening to low. Though a few of the presi- use strategic arms. It spent years dent’s aides think that the outlines developing cyber weapons that of an Iran deal are still possible, are cheap, accurate and easy to they doubt the relationship will deploy – perfect for a state like look dramatically different by North Korea. The cyber attack noon on Jan. 20, 2017, when that hit Sony Pictures Entertain- President Obama leaves office. ment, ostensibly in retaliation for In the case of North Korea, one It's time to try something new." In a crude comedy about a CIA senior aide said, “change would his State of the Union adress Barack Obama discussed his new Cuba plot to kill Kim Jong-un, was require divine intervention.” initiative: “…we are ending a policy o the first state-ordered, large scale t ho

To understand why, it’s impor- P

that was long past its expiration date.“ destructive attack in the United tant to start with what made the UPI States. Undoubtedly it will not go/ ma change with Cuba and Myanmar i be the last. possible: Neither country has The president’s response, again, been strategically vital to Ameri- was not to try to engage the North can interests for decades. Korean leadership, for whom he Only Americans over the age of has made his antipathy clear. 60 can even remember the days Instead, it was to create a cost when Miami seemed in danger Beyond Cuba for the cyber attack, and estab- of being eviscerated by missiles lish some sense of deterrence. He just 90 miles away in Cuba, or In his final two years, President Obama’s foreign policy options are dwindling. announced new sanctions on the when the Pentagon measured country, a step of dubious value: how many minutes it would take Events in Iran and North Korea could make or break his legacy Every American president since a nuclear weapon launched near Harry Truman has sanctioned Havana to hit New York City. By David E. Sanger North Korea and dreamed of The obstacles to changing the its demise. All have been disap- relationship were largely inside seemed as if East Germans would integration. American officials fine line with the Revolutionary Iran, “than a reaction to domestic pointed. the United State. They disap- no longer be under the strictest of talking about Cuba today sound Guard Corps and the ayatollahs. political pressures not to ‘retreat’ Kim Jong Un is not likely to peared as a once-powerful gen- restrictions. a lot like those who talked about When he started down the road in any aspect of its program.’’ give up cyber weapons soon. They eration of angry Cuban exiles, “They have made a calculation engaging China in a web of West- of negotiation in the summer of President Obama faces a paral- suit their purposes: It is easy to who blocked any normalization that rather than try to control the ern values in the 1990’s. That 2013, he told confidantes he had lel problem. Many in Congress deny their use, and the severity of of relations, began to fade away. movements of their own people, experiment was only partially suc- only six months to close a deal want to scuttle the negotiations. the attacks can be moderated. In By the time Obama came to that Cubans can be part of the cessful in the case of China. But before those “who oppose dealing The best way, they have deter- short, they are perfect for a broken office, it was no longer accepted global economy and come back Cuba is a tiny place, and once its with the United States’’ would mined, is to threaten new sanc- – and broke – nation, offering a wisdom that a politician who and have homes and businesses economy opens up, the guesswork begin to chip away at his efforts. tions against Iran, ostensibly to way for the North Korean leader- advocated an opening to Cuba inside and outside of Cuba,” Sweig is that it will begin to look like And in fact, the chipping has kick in the day the negotiations ship to strike without fearing an would be obliterated in presiden- said. That change was critical to Miami. It will take longer in begun. When Ayatollah Khame- end. But the practical effect is far overwhelming response. tial primaries in Florida and New President Obama’s thinking. He Yangon, the former Rangoon. nei declared last summer that Iran greater; the sanctions resolutions To Obama, North Korea is Jersey, where large numbers of himself referred to America’s six- So what does this say about would ultimately build an indus- wending through Congress may the antithesis of Cuba. Its people Cuban-Americans live. In fact, decade-long embargo of Cuba as prospects for a settlement with trial-scale uranium enrichment give the Iranians reason to avoid cannot travel. Its leadership the politics flipped: More young a policy that “was long past its Iran? Not much. To reach an capability – perhaps not for years, striking a deal. (The agreement cannot see the advantages of inte- Cuban-Americans wanted to lift expiration date. When what you’re accord between Washington and but eventually – it circumscribed the two nations are operating gration with the West; instead, the travel and investment bans. doing doesn’t work for 50 years, Tehran requires not one deal, but Zarif’s ability to negotiate. With under prohibits new sanctions they view it as the beginning of That changing balance worked it’s time to try something new.” three: One between while negotiations drag on.) the end of the regime. To the to President Obama’s advantage. That shift marked an emotional the negotiators, one President Obama has explicitly president, as one aide said, “the He knew young Cubans who moment – but perhaps the most between Iran’s presi- warned Congress about torpe- best solution would be for the yearned for an end to the Cold notable fact was that the politi- dent and its military David E. Sanger doing his diplomatic effort, but North to go away.” War freeze that doomed a country cal opposition seemed so lame. leaders and mul- is the national security that complaint may prove in White House officials know that so geographically close, yet so The ideologues who had fought lahs, and a final one correspondent for the vain. European foreign ministers is a wish, not a policy. But Presi- New York Times. difficult to reach. The causes of so many presidents over Cuba between President have similar concerns. “Introduc- dent Obama is acutely aware that the Castros’ Cold War rifts with were fading from the scene, like Obama and Con- ing new hurdles at this critical over the next two years, foreign Washington seemed as yellowed Fidel Castro himself. The same gress. Few doubt that stage of the negotiations, includ- private policy is the only territory he will as an old Che Guevara poster. could be said for the opposition to the negotiating teams, ing through additional nuclear- control largely by himself. Beyond “This is a regime that has been normalizing relations with Myan- led by Foreign Minis- related sanctions legislation on Cuba and Myanmar he has the molting,” said Julia E. Sweig, mar: Once the generals who ran ter Mohammad Javad Iran, would jeopardize our efforts running room to attempt one or the director of Latin American the country loosened the political Zarif and Undersecretary of State little room to compromise, Zarif at a critical juncture,’’ four Euro- two more breakthroughs. The studies at the Council on Foreign system, released Aung San Suu Kii Wendy Sherman, would be able to has had to extend the talks, and pean foreign ministers, amongst pivot to Asia offers an opportu- Relations. The telling moment and renounced their suspected close their differences. But both extend them again. “This refusal them Frank-Walter Steinmeier nity to shift America’s emphasis, came more than a year ago, nuclear trade with North Korea, are operating under huge con- to accept a reduction in existing from Germany and Laurent but not to redefine his presidency. when Raul Castro’s government all opposition in the United States straints at home. capability seems less a reflection Fabius from France, wrote in the A breakthrough with Iran, or a allowed Cubans to travel freely faded away. Zarif, urban and westernized, of Iran’s technical requirements,’’ Washington Post early this year. breakdown in North Korea, could – an event analogous to the con- The result is that Cuba is the is considered far too American in wrote Robert Einhorn, a former “While many Iranians know how remake the last quarter of his term fusing moment in 1989 when it newest American experiment with Tehran, and is always walking a State Department negotiator with much they stand to gain by over- in office. n February 2015 7

The Security Times • Strategy Wildcards galore in the Middle East Policymakers can’t plan for all scenarios but they can ask: What if? | By Volker Perthes

cholars and policy them closer to the approaches of The idea that a grave advisors would do Russia or China. common threat, such well to refrain from • As the balances shift, no sus- as the emergence of the predictions about the tainable alliances are emerging. IS, would help regional and ideological threat to regional courseS of the Middle East. In Some of the power shifts are clearly actors to overcome states and societies as long as no an uncertain environment, the more than ephemeral. Thus, for their rivalries is obvi- credible, inclusive governments soundest tool to prepare for the the first time in the contemporary ously unfounded. Con- are established in Baghdad and future is often to simply study Middle East, neither Iraq nor Syria sider only the relation- Damascus; as long as no appeal- the trends that we already see are among the active players on ship between Riyadh ing counter-narrative emerges and, at the same time, be ready the regional scene. Rather, the and Tehran, Cairo and from Saudi Arabia whose Wah- to deal with wildcards. Trends, two countries – Syria even more so Ankara, or even Riaydh habist school of Islam remains of course, tend to shift, or to than Iraq – have become the space and Doha. In today’s the source of ideological inspi- be broken. But they constitute where all political, geopolitical and Middle East, the enemy ration for the IS; and as long as strong currents that mould the sectarian or identitarian conflicts of my enemy may still tensions between Saudi Arabia flow of events as well as the per- converge. Egypt is largely occupied remain – my enemy. and Iran continue to feed sectar- ceptions of actors. with itself, and unlikely to resume • Civil wars are no ian polarization in the region. The current mega-trend in the a regional leadership position for longer contained. The The number of wildcards in Middle East seems to be the Middle East has for any regional situation, or, more dissolution of a regional a long time been precisely, of game-changing order with no one around to able to cope with events and developments that put it together again: Exter- – and even toler- never come totally out of the nal powers are unlikely to ate – its various blue, is in principle unlimited. design a new Sykes Picot civil wars because Consider, just to mention a and regional powers seem they were more few, a successful conclusion unable as yet to gather for a or less contained of the nuclear talks with Iran, Vienna Congress of sorts to within the borders the sudden collapse of the gov- establish their own regional of the respective ernment in Damascus and the security system. states. Consider the takeover of the Syrian capi- In a number of respects, long civil wars in tal by the IS, or an uprising the political landscape Lebanon, in Alge- by local supporters of the IS between the Mediterranean ria, in Sudan, in in Saudi Arabia, perhaps in and the Persian Gulf has Iraqi Kurdistan, in connection with a succession ceased to be the Middle Yemen. This is no crisis in the royal family. Poli- East that we used to know. longer the case. The cymakers cannot plan for all This certainly applies to wars in Syria and more or less plausible sce- state-society relations, but Iraq have migrated narios. But they would be well also to the geopolitical across borders; and advised to more often ask the level. Here are five trends borders – particu- “What if?” question – both that seem particularly rel- larly between Iraq with regard to outcomes they evant: and Syria, but also want to achieve, and to more • International players between Syria and malign scenarios which too fre- are staying on the sidelines. Lebanon – are losing their US mediation effort The IS is not simply another quently are dismissed as unreal- In contrast both to the more some time to come. Saudi Arabia relevance. and sleepwalk into a perilous terrorist group. In order to deal istic just because we don’t want aggressive American approach and Iran have emerged as the main • The Israeli-Palestinian con- one-state reality. with and ultimately defeat it, we them to materialize. n under George W. Bush and the regional antagonists, rather than flict is losing relevance for the • New quasi-sovereign enti- need to understand it as European Union’s post-2011 becoming the leading protagonists region, but not for Israelis and ties are emerging. The weakness what it is, namely imago/SchÖning (5) transformation agenda, external of a regional concert of powers. In Palestinians. The conflict between of states in the Middle East lies a jihadist state- actors have largely given up on fact, neither the bloody conflict in Israel and the Palestinians remains not so much in the frailty of state building project. projecting ideas and order into Syria nor the region-wide sectar- virulent – remember the 50-days and security apparatuses or in It is a totalitarian, the region. International actors ian polarisation will calm down war between Israel and Hamas in the lack of resources as in the expansionist, and will still defend vital interests the summer of 2014 lack of inclusiveness. In Syria and hegemonic pro­ject in the region. But in the main, –, and it is unlikely to Iraq, the failure of two would-be for a state that their approach is about contain- be settled in the near strong states has led do the emer- tries to recreate ing risks and threats inside the Volker Perthes future. New violence gence of new territorially based a number of fea- region, enabling local partners, is the director is more likely than an quasi-sovereign entities. Similar tures of the defunct of the German Institute and, if possible, resolving prob- for International and Security agreement on a two- developments may occur in other security states in lems that could entail the risk of Affairs (SWP), in Berlin. state solution. countries. Syria and Iraq, but being drawn into regional con- However, in con- It is relatively easy for the rejects the state flicts. trast to most of the regional or the international com- system as such and swp The modus operandi of the past six decades, the munity to deal with an entity like will certainly not coalition against the so-called Israeli-Palestinian the Kurdish Regional Govern- apply for member- Islamic State (IS) gives expres- conflict is no longer ment (KRG) in Iraq which is ship in international sion to this trend by limiting or come to an end without some the main mobilizing issue in most already treated as a de-facto state institutions. international military action to understanding between Riyadh parts of the region. This may add actor by a number of govern- The bombing airstrikes and leaving the fight- and Tehran. to a false sense of calm on the ments, or even with the Kurdish campaign of the ing on the ground to local forces. The majority of the regional Israeli side. Israel’s deterrence has cantons in Northern Syria. These US-led coalition For Europe and the US, this may states are now battling the so- strengthened, and its economy is entities aspire to be included into may succeed in go along with a renewed pri- called Islamic State. But they find strong. But given the reluctance the system. The so-called Islamic inhibiting its further oritization of stability over politi- themselves in a brittle coalition of the current Israeli government State constitutes a totally differ- expansion. But the cal transformation and human of inconvenience, rather than an to give up control, Israel may ent and much more dangerous IS is likely to remain rights,Security_Times.qxp_290x130 which ironically brings 30.01.15 alliance. 16:13 Seite 1 miss the opportunity of another phenomenon. a military, political,

MUNICH HAS COUNTLESS SIGHTS TO OFFER

THE HOTEL BAYERISCHER HOF INCLUDED Since 1841, the privately managed, award-winning Hotel Bayerischer Hof is valued internationally for its elegant atmosphere and the amiable, highly personal service. Here, the highest levels of luxury come as standards with its stylish 280 rooms and 65 suites set in the heart of Munich, within walking distance of the renowned museums, Kunsthallen, art galleries and of the Opera, as well as of the finest shopping areas. The hotel offers a choice of five restaurants (Gourmet, Mediterranean, Polynesian, Bavarian and Spa Cuisine), among them the restaurants Atelier (1 Michelin star) and Garden, re-styled by Axel Vervoordt, the famous interior designer. Guests have a choice of 40 function rooms with a capacity of 10 up to 2,500 persons, six bars, the Night Club with live Jazz and the luxury cinema astor@Cinema Lounge, also designed by Axel Vervoordt. French architect Andrée Putman designed the Blue Spa, the wellness area on three floors, with a panoramic rooftop terrace. The latest addition is the Roofgarden, designed by French design studio Jouin Manku. Welcome to the best that Munich lifestyle has to offer.

Promenadeplatz 2- 6 Fon +49 89.21 20 - 0 www.bayerischerhof.de D-80333 München Fax +49 89.21 20 - 906 [email protected] 8 February 2015

hree long-term trends are rede- obsolete. Today’s world with its multipleThe Security Times • Strategy fining conflict and security: the players, some with global reach but weak redistribution of power, the commitments, some with only regional world’s increasing physical and clout, but strong interests, does not func- informationalT connectivity, and the result- tion like the world once dominated by ing decline of the state as the centerpiece of Europe, or that of the Cold War, or even the international system. The first moves that of the immediate post-Cold War us away from the post-Cold War world. period, in which – many thought – only a The last two have more radical implica- handful of powers really mattered. States tions: they challenge the role of states and can work together on some issues while intergovernmental organizations as the contesting others, allowing for a much building blocks of global order. more flexible, but also less predictable All three will shape the conflicts of 2015, world. The co-operation between Russia and all three present immediate challenges and Western countries on the Iran nuclear to Western powers. International co- issue, even as they compete in Ukraine and operation has never been as important, Syria, is a case in point. but today’s conflicts demand an engage- The second trend is the world’s increased ment that is both more modest and more connectivity. The emergence of terrorism imaginative than in the past. This is not an as a global concern is a stark illustration. easy combination. Terrorism is nothing new; it is a centuries- The redistribution of power has been old tactical response to an asymmetric abundantly documented, but its implica- distribution of power. What is new is the tions are not yet clear. The United States is global impact of some terrorist acts. This less overwhelmingly dominant, except in its reflects the physical connectivity of the 21st military capacity, but it is also less willing century, as exemplified in the profound to use the force it has. In most crises, in any transformation of civil aviation since 9/11, event, the utility of its force is doubtful. or the growing threat of cyber warfare in Europe moves frustratingly slowly and has digital economies. failed to become a strategic actor (though It also reflects unprecedented information one should not discount its raw potential connectivity: an impact-multiplier that cre- to become one). ates recognition, whether for a fast-food Both, too, have been undermined by the chain, a running shoe or Jihadism. And travails and inequities of their economic just as global commercial franchises buy systems – no longer seen as unparalleled local businesses to establish a presence, the role models; and by the legal and moral Jihadist franchises exploit and boost local excesses of their post-9/11 posture. The conflicts, whether in the Sahel, northern West has failed, to date, to effectively Kenya, or Syria. Often pressure is bottom- counter the perception that its international up: local groups seek the franchise because stance is motivated solely by a desire to it offers easy access to money, weapons maintain its political, economic and mili- and recruits. tary supremacy. Connectivity is also a recruitment tool. Meanwhile, Russia, China, India and The global impact of terrorist actions Japan are increasingly assertive in their attracts lost souls seduced by the public- immediate regions. And a set of middle ity given to their acts. Extreme violence powers plays an ever more influential, becomes both tactic and strategy, an end even dominant, role in their own neigh- unto itself. It is packaged as Jihadism borhoods, sometimes for better but often not because Islam has much to do with for worse, as ensuing local rivalries make it, but because Islam provides a conve- conflict resolution that much more difficult. nient marker, a readily recognizable totem converts among French Jihadists (more no choice but to engage. The question is: Neglecting that and focusing exclu- Perhaps most grave, in a growing expanse around which to gather in resistance to real than 20 percent) is also revealing. How? sively on military operations can help of territories, mostly across parts of Africa, or perceived injustice. In such a connected world, retrench- Sharing intelligence, coordinating terrorist groups increase their influence the Middle East and South Asia, the writ Also, as yet there is no good counter- ment is not possible. No border force, no efforts to weaken international terror- by aggravating the conditions that gave of the state is weak, sometimes even non- narrative in the Sunni world to win over “homeland” security can safeguard islands ist connections is necessary, but cannot rise to them in the first place. Assessing existent. the alienated: liberal democracy has lost of peace and stability in an ocean of turmoil replace local and regional conflict reso- the strategic impact of targeted military It has become fashionable to talk about its appeal; the often remote secular or reli- as isolationists would have it. The flow of lution, and cannot take place oblivious actions is vital: they may achieve tactical the “return of geopolitics.” But more sig- gious autocrats offer little to most young people can never be fully controlled, nor to how others might view those actions. results at the expense of strategic success. nificant is that this redistribution – or, men; and moderate political Islam has can the flow of ideas, at least not in a free Empathy, clarity and consistency of expo- In Syria and Iraq, airstrikes and support perhaps better, diffusion – of power makes also come unstuck – most dramatically in society. Outside threats will have their sition, and adherence to minimum norms to Kurdish and Shia fighters may have geopolitics, as traditionally understood, Egypt. The relatively high proportion of echo in homegrown terrorism. There is are much needed. degraded the Islamic State’s capacities,

Delivering solutions.

You serve the world’s markets. So do we.

Your top priority is that your cargo reaches its destination – not how it gets there. With our global network, we perfectly combine rail, road, ocean, and air freight to ensure that your goods make it anywhere in the world. Safely, reliably, and right on schedule. And we do it quickly, efficiently, and affordably. From simple transport services to complex logistics processes, we have tailormade solutions to fulfill your needs. Let us serve you: www.dbschenker.com. 8 February 2015 9

The Security Times • StrategyMany are chronically weak, at war, col- state weak, and they have adapted to a lapsed or facing cycles of low-intensity war economy that enhances their own violence. Even those that appear reason- power and ability to loot resources. Sadly ably strong are often, to varying degrees, most of the deadly conflicts of 2014 look rather brittle. set to continue. In these regions, international actors No overarching concept can capture and national reformers alike can aspire to the diversity and complexity of conflict forge inclusive, accountable and resilient in 2015. Disenfranchisement and local states, but they face a familiar question: grievances can have an increasingly global “What is good enough?” Can leaders in impact. They are transforming the geopo- those states that appear reasonably strong litical landscape, which in turn changes the be nudged into doing enough to make col- nature of local conflicts. The connections lapse less likely? – at a minimum widening between local grievances and the global their support base and patronage networks strategic theater also make the world of or, more optimistically, improving gov- 2015 a more dangerous and less pre- ernance. And can those states that have dictable place: strategic surprise is the In today’s networked multipolar world the West still collapsed regain a share of power and new normal, as neglected local conflicts seeks the right strategy | By Jean-Marie Guéhenno resources to keep enough people happy to may suddenly acquire a global dimension. create at least some Russia, China and short-term stabil- emerging middle Jean-Marie Guéhenno, ity, and hope over Under-Secretary General powers will con- time for improve- of the UN 2000 to 2008, tinue to build up ments in gover- is president and CEO of their militaries, nance? Such ends International Crisis Group but new threats and author of appear modest. But “The Fog of Peace,” resulting from the in practice they will due for publication in April weakness of many be hard won. from Brookings. states are likely As many states ICC to be even more weaken, the relative pressing. power of non-state This is no reason actors – both legitimate like corporations for Western powers to abandon efforts for and illegitimate like criminal networks cooperative management of international – keeps growing. Implications are wide- security – in fact they are more vital now ranging. The distinction between domestic than ever. But those efforts must be more and international affairs is blurred because humble: proportionate to the limited inter- domestic fragility, whether in industrial- national consensus on interventions and ized Ukraine or the developing Democratic to the international community’s limited Republic of Congo or South Sudan, creates capacity to effectively stabilize countries in opportunities for foreign meddling. The crisis. They must also be more imaginative: distinction between crime and politics is first and foremost looking outside tradi- also fading: profits from trafficking not tional centers of power, but also working only corrupt officials and hollow out insti- creatively outside traditional alliances and tutions, but also support terrorists, mafias seeking support for efforts to end conflicts and insurgencies from the Sahel to Eastern even in what may seem unlikely quarters. Europe and Latin America. After a decade and a half of inter- k&people c

o In such a fluid and amorphous context, ventionism, whether US-led or UN-led, s

go wars are more intractable. Political pro- and increasing disagreement on what ma i t grams no longer structure conflicts; the constitutes legitimate engagement, the but have also strengthened the narrative ciple. The Arab Spring seemed initially decline of the institutions through which risk of political fragmentation increases, temptation exists for the West to adopt a of Sunni victimization at the hands of another vindication of that new power, individual lives acquire a collective dimen- as political, criminal and personal agendas minimalist approach to foreign relations. Western powers and their allies. as a ground-swell of largely unorganized sion, in particular formal state institutions, mix together. The longer a war lasts, the That would be as wrong as the previous The third trend is the decline of the state individual protests spread and toppled and the resulting decline in state-society more armed groups proliferate, as observed maximalist posture. 2015 could bring in as the critical actor of the international dictatorships. relations are now more visible. in Somalia, South Sudan or Syria. Ending a new equilibrium, if a focus on the politi- system – the disintermediation of politics. Although in some cases, like Egypt, the In the world’s most troubled regions, armed conflict becomes ever harder, not cal foundations of stabilization leads to The end of the Cold War showed some state has since fought back, it has often particularly across parts of Africa and the only because of the number of actors who a limited but broad consensus on peace positive consequences of that decline: done so in a way that excludes large seg- Middle East, states – often those that had need to be included in a peace process, but and security: less military intervention- individuals’ rights trumped the power ments of the population and thus stores either been propped up by Cold War rival- also because political goals are elusive and ism, more politics, smarter diplomacy, of repressive states; human security sat up problems for later. The negative con- ries or benefitted from the fresh legitimacy protagonists on all sides share an interest more collective action, and more modest alongside state security, at least in prin- sequences of the disempowerment and of decolonization – are now struggling. in prolonging the fighting. It keeps the ambitions. n

Delivering solutions.

You serve the world’s markets. So do we.

Your top priority is that your cargo reaches its destination – not how it gets there. With our global network, we perfectly combine rail, road, ocean, and air freight to ensure that your goods make it anywhere in the world. Safely, reliably, and right on schedule. And we do it quickly, efficiently, and affordably. From simple transport services to complex logistics processes, we have tailormade solutions to fulfill your needs. Let us serve you: www.dbschenker.com. 10 February 2015

The Security Times • Strategy

picture alliance/dpa/Evgeny Biyatov RT (formerly Russia Today) anchor during a live program: "RT is slick, pacy and convincing. It does not focus on promoting Russia. Instead it follows a broad anti-Western agenda." We are not ready for hybrid war The West faces a joined-up threat from Russia but is yet to formulate a joined-up response | By Edward Lucas

estern security just crippled, but confused. Rus- security order, occupies Tibet and on advisory boards. Discussing Western agenda. The unspoken regional grievances, and corrup- thinking is based sian propaganda had created the is engaged in the biggest military this robustly in public is tricky: (and sometimes overt) theme of tion of public life. on compartments. impression in Crimea and among modernization the world has ever they can sue for libel in plain- its coverage is that the West is Dealing with that would require Military threats many other Ukrainians that fas- seen. tiff-friendly jurisdictions such as decadent, hypocritical, bullying close coordination between gov- requireW a military response. cists had seized power and that Letting business rip with hostile England. and over-stretched. Democracy ernment agencies of all kinds (in Criminals are a matter for the ‘Russian-speakers’ (a purposely countries does not just pay for Saudi money constrains the aca- is a sham and human rights are a itself quite unusual) and also with police, and spies for the spy- vague category of people) faced them to attack us. It also cre- demic study of sensitive topics to weapon used selectively for cyni- business, media and non-profit catchers. Diplomats deal with persecution. ates vulnerabilities on our side. do with Islam (such as contra- cal geopolitical reasons. People outfits. It is hard to see that hap- diplomacy and someone from Outsiders – both policymakers It makes politicians timorous. dictions in early versions of the are being lied to, and are right pening. Imagine a room in which the IT department – probably and public opinion – were dis- to be angry. spy-catchers, psychological war- – worries about the security of tracted too. Russia managed to This approach – broadly shared fare experts, foreign diplomats, your office computer. As for pro- portray the events in Ukraine not by other stations such as Iran’s police, prosecutors, financial paganda attacks? That sort of as the invasion and occupation Even now, many in Press TV, China’s CCTV and regulators, energy companies, thing doesn’t happen any more. of another country’s territory, some Latin American stations -- is banks, big business, media edi- We have a free press and a free but part of a justified response the West do not realize the far more effective than the leaden tors and politicians are all sitting media market. What could pos- to a cynical power grab by the propaganda of Radio Moscow round the same table: it would sibly go wrong? EU and NATO. Even now, many extent of Russia’s ambitions and other stations during the strike many people as sinister. Yet This way of thinking grew up in the West do not realize the Cold War. It is also certainly unless we are willing to cooperate in what now looks like an era of extent of Russia’s ambitions and and capabilities. more effective than the feeble in this way, we will lose. innocence which followed the fall capabilities. The Kremlin aims efforts the West makes to get Yet during the Cold War, we of the Berlin Wall in 1989. It was to divide and distract the West, its message across inside Russia, did. Doing business with the East- mistaken then, and is dangerously erode transatlantic solidarity and Almost no European leader wants Quran). Follow that path and China or Venezuela. Western ern bloc countries, for example, out-of-date now. The West is re-establish a kind of hegemony to meet the Dalai Lama. Ameri- funding dries up. Better to stick security experts used to laugh at was closely scrutinized, and sub- facing a kind of hybrid war which over neighboring countries, con- can policymakers flinch rather to something safe and lucrative RT a few years ago. They are not ject to clear political constraints. we barely recognize, and have straining their security choices than speak out openly about such as architecture or calligra- laughing now. The station has Exports of high-technology little ability to withstand. The and ensuring that they can pose Saudi-financed terrorism. For phy. Think tanks are particularly more than one billion downloads products went ahead only on a main, but not only, protagonist no threat to the regime’s grip on years Britain refused to have a vulnerable. They lack the endow- on YouTube. NATO and some case-by-case basis. The Soviet is Vladimir Putin’s Russia, which Russia. All over southeastern and public inquiry into the murder ments and taxpayer support of hawkish Western governments proposal to build a gas pipeline sees our weaknesses far more central Europe, Russian influence of the fugitive Russian security universities. A recent Washington are scrambling to resurrect their to West Germany attracted great clearly than we do ourselves, and has been growing, meaning that policeman Alexander Litvinenko, Post investigation into think tanks information-warfare capabilities concern in the United States in the is ruthless in exploiting them. The neither NATO nor the EU can because it feared the conse- in the American capital revealed which fell into complete disuse Reagan years. Journalists were weaknesses that Russia exploits now function properly – as the quences of exposing the Russian a shocking dependence on foreign during the Cold War. It is all too aware of the Soviet penchant for are largely general ones. They new Greek government’s stance state’s role in his murder. Think government funding. Big West- little, probably too late. desinformatsiya (disinformation); have been previously exploited on Russia illustrates all too well. of the impact on the City of ern newspapers can be paid to The fundamental problem for if they were conned by it, govern- to some extent by Saudi Arabia, The first and biggest weakness London if all that Russian money print lucrative, lavish advertorial the West is that we face a joined- ment officials had no hesitation and also by China. is the belief that, as the Romans stopped flowing. supplements; the unspoken quid up threat in hybrid war, and we in pointing out their mistake. The clearest example of hybrid said, pecunia non olet (money Russia and other adversaries pro quo is to go easy Taking money from a Soviet-bloc war came in Ukraine last year. doesn’t smell). Since 1989 we exploit the fifth columns that on investigative jour- source was a risky business: it Even before Russian troops have come to believe that making trade and investment dependence nalism and polemics Edward Lucas is a would mean a ruined career, and marched into the regional parlia- money is a praiseworthy, or at create. The energy lobby in Ger- directed towards the senior vice-president at the Center for European Policy Analysis, probably a prison sentence, if it ment building in the peninsular’s least morally neutral, activity many was for years a dependable sponsor. a thinktank in Washington DC; came to light. capital, Simferopol, on March so long as you do not actually advocate of Russian interests; This leads on to he is also a senior editor We are no longer in an existen- at the Economist, and author 18, 2014, the Kremlin had made break the law. Considerations of in Austria it still is. Russia’s gas another big element of several books, including tial struggle with a totalitarian sure of victory. It had penetrated national security matter even less pipelines export corruption even of hybrid war: infor- “The New Cold War” (Bloomsbury). ideology. We do not want to every part of the Ukrainian state than complaints by activists for before they are built. Fear of mation. We assume, PRIVATE resurrect the high walls that once apparatus through bribery, intim- green and human rights causes. jeopardizing the future of BAe wrongly, that truth divided the world. It is good that idation and cyberespionage. It If you get them cross, you may Systems, which has lucrative and is mightier than the trade and investment flow across is no exaggeration to say that hurt your sales or your share controversial contracts in the sword, in all cases national borders and we should the Kremlin was better informed price. But if you do a lot of busi- Middle East, has contorted the and everywhere. Actually it are unable to provide a joined-up cherish our free speech and tol- about Ukraine’s plans and capa- ness with a foreign power that British criminal justice system. is not. Well-financed lies can response. Russia in particular – to erance for different opinions. bilities to resist attack than the hates your country, its political Money from our adversar- be halfway around the world my mind the most pressing threat But we should also remember leadership in Kiev was. and economic system and wants ies flows into public life more before the truth has its boots to Europe, because it is nearer that we are in fierce competition Russia’s economic pressure to harm it – that’s just busi- directly. We have seen Russia bla- on. The case of RT – the multi- and more focused – can com- with determined adversaries, who on Ukraine – a combination of ness. For that reason we have tantly buy influence in European lingual broadcaster formerly bine intelligence, propaganda, want to undermine the safety and energy sanctions, trade block- blithely bought oil from Arab parties, ranging from Estonia known as Russia Today – is par- organized crime, cyberattacks freedom we take for granted. At ades and financial manipulation countries which export extrem- to France. Current policymak- ticularly instructive. RT is slick, of all kinds, diplomacy, military the very least we should try to – meant that the country was all ism and fund terrorists, and have ers can be put on the payroll pacy and convincing. It does means (regular and irregular), end the climate of impunity that but bankrupt even before the war let trade boom with China, which secretly. Retired politicians and not focus on promoting Russia. economic pressure, energy sanc- surrounds those who aid and abet started. Decision-making was not wishes to overturn the East Asian officials take lucrative positions Instead it follows a broad anti- tions, exploitation of ethnic and with their efforts. n February 2015 11

The Security Times • Strategy

uch has been made of the intensifying strategic competi- tion between the Asia’s pivot to Asia UnitedM States and China, with many years Beijing working to edge America In a geostrategic mikado, the region’s states are actively realigning in which the out of its Asian neighborhood country’s closest ally even as Washington doubles down their external relationships | By Daniel Twining and biggest investor was China. on its regional partnerships and The future of the reform process presence. Less attention has been and in joint clubs like the Shang- Shinzo Abe over Japan’s record in India has traditionally enjoyed Afghanistan leaves a vacuum of in Myanmar is uncertain; most paid to regional dynamics under- hai Cooperation Organization. the Pacific War, fueling tension in a close defense and diplomatic power in the region. of the early gains from rolling neath the umbrella of a US-China Nonetheless, Putin’s own strate- relations between America’s two relationship with Moscow. Yet Strikingly, India under Prime back political dictatorship and relationship that mixes nascent gic choices have dashed hopes in most important Asian allies. in another strategic shift, Indian Minister Narendra Modi is also economic autarky have been har- rivalry with cautious engagement. Japan and elsewhere that Russia Although the relationship officials today look with growing more openly enhancing defense vested, but many hard choices In fact, Asia is undergoing a wider might be a partner in constraining between Tokyo and Seoul urgently concern at President Vladimir and economic cooperation with remain to be made on the path set of geopolitical realignments China’s regional ascendancy. requires repair, frictions have also Putin’s embrace of President Xi, Israel. This is remarkable given to genuine democracy and an that could reset conventional Meanwhile, Japan is actively grown between North Korea and and accelerated Russian provi- that India has one of the world’s economy operating under the expectations about the region’s shaping a regional future that its Chinese patron – weakening sion of energy supplies and sen- largest Muslim populations, has rule of law. Nonetheless, Myan- strategic future. depends less exclusively on its the long-standing axis between sitive military technologies to traditionally supported the Arab mar is another pivotal state that Russia is tilting towards China US alliance and more on strategic Beijing and Pyong- line on the Israeli-Palestinian con- is actively realigning its external and away from the West, as dem- and economic partnerships with yang. The execution flict, and has a close civilizational relationships in the midst of Asia’s onstrated by several recent energy- like-minded nations in South and by Kim Jong-un of his relationship with Iran, which has ongoing strategic flux. supply deals worth hundreds of Southeast Asia. With a close eye uncle and deputy Jang vowed to bring about Israel’s Where these transformations billions of dollars. Russia’s inva- on improving its position within Sung-taek, considered Daniel Twining is Senior Fellow destruction. Modi recently met will end remains to be seen. Asia for Asia at the German Marshall sion of Ukraine and ensuing US the Asian balance of power, Japan China’s leading ally Fund of the United States. with his Israeli counterpart for the is not coalescing into rigid, Cold and European sanctions have is investing heavily in a nascent within Pyongyang’s first such encounter in a decade; War-style blocs centered on the led President Putin to pivot east- alliance with India that could unite corridors of power, India’s foreign minister is a long- United States and China. Rather, wards in hopes of building an the gateway powers of the Pacific put the point on a time friend of Israel, and Home regional states operating under- german marshall fund of the us anti-Western alliance with Bei- and Indian oceans. Tokyo is also deeper cooling in rela- Minister Rajnath Singh made his neath the strategic competition jing. Chinese and Russian armed intensifying military, diplomatic, tions (note to future first overseas trip there. According between Washington and Beijing forces are stepping up joint exer- and economic cooperation with challengers to the Kim to Bloomberg, India has purchased are creating new realities – not only cises. Both countries’ leaders are pivotal Southeast Asian nations, dynasty: his praetorian guard also India’s Chinese rival. The new more Israeli arms in the past six to hedge against Sino-American ideologically united in ruthless including Indonesia, Vietnam, and reportedly executed Jang’s entire Sino-Russian entente is putting months alone than in the previ- conflict, but also to guard against defense of one-party rule at home Myanmar. extended family). China’s Presi- pressure on the old Russia-India ous three years. The countries are the “new model of great power and against Western leadership in History issues have driven a dent Xi met with South Korean alliance, which in recent years has jointly developing a long-range relations” that President Xi has so international institutions. wedge between South Korea and President Park before meeting centered mainly on Russian arms missile and sharing best practices often called for, and which would Yet Putin holds a weak hand in Japan in yet another consequential North Korea’s Kim, a first for sales to India’s fast-modernizing on counter-terrorism. relegate every other nation to an this high-stakes game of geostrate- strategic realignment. In part to a Chinese leader in peninsular military. Reflecting these new Finally, Myanmar is engaged inferior status. The United States gic poker: a rising China’s power shore up their political standing diplomacy. The North’s engage- currents, President Putin wants in its own pivot of sorts, open- must resist the gravitational pull of threatens to overwhelm that of at home, both President Xi Jin- ment with Japan over the return of to ramp up weapon sales to ing itself up to close economic, this “G-2” dynamic and support its a declining Russia, with Beijing ping and President Park Geun-hye abductees has led to warmer ties India’s arch-enemy Pakistan – a diplomatic, and potentially even Asian friends in shaping a regional increasingly holding the trump have made common cause against between Pyongyang and Tokyo, country China is also cultivating military ties with India, Japan, and strategic environment that sustains card in commercial negotiations the government of Prime Minister causing concern in Seoul. as the Western drawdown from the United States. This comes after peace and prosperity. n

place where everyone should be safe.

Serving over 83 million customers in more than 70 countries. At Allianz we value an open dialogue and thus believe in strong transatlantic relationships. As one of the leading insurers worldwide, we know that honest conversation and trust are the key to security across the globe. allianz.com

With youyou fromfrom A-ZA-Z © Allianz SE, Germany 12 February 2015

The Security Times • Strategy

Countries accomodating displaced persons Don’t fear refugees, help them They are fleeing from conflict, not seeking it. To treat them as a threat is inhumane | By António Guterres

t the start of a new year communities’ way of life. They ing at sea last year as alert to it. But for the most part, Over 51 million people are forc- already stained with are being mischaracterized as ille- a result of these move- refugees are fleeing from con- ibly displaced around the world bloodshed, fear of ter- gal migrants, common criminals ments, and the real flict, not seeking a new one. To today, more than at any other time rorism and instability or worse. António Guterres number is probably treat them as a threat rather than since World War II. Multiplying Ais again dominating the public Amidst this rising panic, we need is UN High Commissioner considerably higher. people in need is inhumane, inef- conflicts, human rights violations, agenda. Anxiety and economic to remember that the primary for Refugees. Countless others were fective, and counterproductive. and statelessness as well as climate discontent are fueling extremism threat is not from refugees, but to abused and beaten One cannot deter people fleeing change, population growth, job- on all sides. Growing numbers them. By definition, those who are by smugglers, or kid- for their lives without escalating less urbanization and food and of people are being driven into granted asylum are survivors of UNHCR/J-M Ferré napped and forced to the dangers even more. water insecurity have uprooted the hands of populists and xeno- terrible persecution and violence, work in trafficking Amidst today’s climate of fear, entire communities against their phobes, and – in some extreme and many will have encountered networks. And now, we must stay focused on where will. cases – are turning to violence. grueling dangers as they fled for many are struggling to the biggest threats lie: to indi- This is more than an uncomfort- These trends deeply affect refu- safety – travelling across war times the previous record during overcome a rising hostility in the vidual refugees and their families. able statistic; it is a rising chal- gees and other forcibly displaced zones on perilous byways, forced the Libyan civil war of 2011. countries where they thought they If we want to stop those threats lenge that has already surpassed people. On the run from trauma to use smuggling rings to cross Increases have also been seen in had found refuge. multiplying, metastasizing and the capacity of the humanitarian at home, they now find themselves closed borders, and exposed to the Gulf of Aden, Southeast Asia This is not to deny there are spreading, we need to sow the system to respond, and shows confronting hostility in their predatory attacks by bandits and and the Caribbean, with 360,000 security challenges for host societ- seeds of a return in peace to their every sign of getting larger. places of exile, cast as scapegoats pirates. people worldwide estimated to ies, when faced with large influxes homelands. We do that by pro- Yet our response to this chal- for any number of problems, from Last year, nearly 220,000 people have taken to the seas. resulting from violence and insta- viding protection and support, lenge has been mixed at best, terrorism to economic hardship fled in unsafe boats across the Globally, more than 4,300 per- bility abroad. There is always a and by helping people not only and at worst woefully inadequate. and perceived threats to their host Mediterranean – more than three sons were reported dead or miss- risk, and my organization is very to survive, but to thrive. Humanitarian appeals are going February 2015 13

Neighborhood Turkey Watch 1,622,839 The Security Times • Strategy 16.7 million people fled their Corruption kills home country in 2014 due to Cyprus war or violence. 86 percent found refuge in a neighboring Syria Combating it requires a more comprehensive country, according to UNHCR Lebanon strategic approach | By Edda Müller 1,166,488 Syrian Refugees t almost does not matter sonnel. In fact, interventions often erability. Institutional weakness, where you look: at the terror- lead to a spike of corruption in the corruption, factional fault lines and Mediterranean Sea Iraq ist activities of Boko Haram affected country – Afghanistan and lack of management procedures 235,563 in Nigeria, at drug trafficking Iraq are prime examples – and an within the recipient armed forces Israel Iin Guinea-Bissau or Mexico, at Jordan increase in support for insurgents. increase opportunities for diverting Egypt 621,918 patronage networks in Afghani- Even “lighter” approaches than equipment and make it difficult to 136,717 stan or Iraq, at autocratic struc- military intervention, such as the improve capacity and resilience. Source: UNHCR, Government of Turkey, AFAD tures before the Arab Spring in example of capacity building in With the United Nations Arms Northern Africa or the Maidan Mali, show the need to incorporate Trade Treaty (ATT) entering into massively underfunded, both for stretched and devoid of opportu- People have been fleeing from in Ukraine. A common issue that an institution-building component force in December 2014, now is basic needs and for protection nities. Small surprise that they are insecurity for centuries, and links all those events is corruption. with the overall principle of “do the time for all parties to the treaty measures such as education. going further afield. today’s world gives little reason It does not need a mastermind to no harm” – in other words, do to ensure that their arms export At their borders, some govern- Poor countries currently accom- to hope that this will soon change. make the link between corrup- not add to the already prevalent control systems are as robust as ments are trying to lock up shop, modate nearly 90 percent of the The way countries deal with the tion, weak state institutions and issues or delegitimize the mission possible. This demands strong investing instead in deterrence, world’s refugees, and are groan- needs of those seeking protection instability. However, it too often through misconduct. anti-corruption mechanisms, carrying out pushbacks, and ing under the burden. As a result, at their borders is an indicator of needs persuasion to get acceptance which can easily be automatically detaining asylum some are turning to desperate their own strength, and will play for the message that corruption is introduced into arms seekers, including children. Ita- measures to keep refugees out, a crucial role in determining the not a minor internal issue, but a export systems. ly’s noble Mare Nostrum opera- not through a lack of generosity, outcome of a century that has real threat to human rights and a Given the need for Edda Müller tion, which rescued over 160,000 but because they can no longer begun so badly. threat to international peace and is Chair of Transparency international coordi- people at sea, is now phasing manage the crisis alone. Yet their With extremely complex prob- security. International Germany. nation, organizations out – and the EU has no plans to appeals for assistance are not lems, often the best approach is to Corruption has different faces. such as the European replace it, beyond the border sur- being met. This is not sustainable. go back to first principles: protect- In instable environments it ranges Union have an impor- veillance of its new Triton opera- Just as importantly, we must do ing lives, honoring human rights, from petty to grand corruption, tant role to play. Not danetzki tion launched in November. Many more to give refugees hope for the promoting tolerance and valueing from accepted custom to crimi- only should the EU people could die as a result. future, the possibility to rebuild diversity. In mid-January, after the nal activity. It hinders the posi- encourage further ATT Focusing on border control will their lives and contribute to soci- vile attack on a satirical magazine tive impact external help seeks to ratification, participate not solve the problem. While gov- ety. In a world with more than 50 in Paris, millions of people took to achieve. Aid may even entrench What is needed is a more com- in information sharing and help ernments have a duty to manage million displaced, many of whom the streets to defend exactly those corruption further and contribute prehensive strategic approach. build capacity elsewhere, it also immigration, their policies must will live years away from home, ideals. We must listen to them. to undesired outcomes. The inter- If we really want to contribute needs to tighten the EU Common be designed to ensure human lives tents are not sufficient. People Ensuring the security and wel- national community has learned to stable institutions – ideally, Position on arms export con- do not end up becoming collateral need the chance to learn, to find fare of our societies is not con- this the hard way in missions in through prevention instead of trols and harmonize the various damage. work and become invested in soci- tradictory to these principles. In Afghanistan, Kosovo or Mali. intervention – then it is time to national systems to ensure that The way we tackle population ety – or else become excluded fact, they are mutually reinforcing. The lessons nevertheless still finally include anti-corruption as a anti-corruption considerations are movements will fundamentally and dependent on aid, exposed We must not allow those who have to be woven into all current cornerstone of risk analysis, plan- introduced and applied effectively. shape this century, with repercus- to exploitation, abuse and radi- would foster hate to undermine and future operations. Twelve of ning, and mission mandates. While working on the issue of sions for generations. To manage calization. this conviction. the 15 lowest ranked countries in Furthermore, to be effective corruption and state fragility in them, we must make migration A growing and misguided focus The way we treat uprooted Transparency International’s Cor- there needs to be a greater open- 2014, Transparency Germany was an option, rather than a desperate on the threat from refugees, rather people is the front line in a battle ruption Perceptions Index in 2013 ness of civil society actors, the able to benefit from a range of need. We must focus far more on than to refugees, has enormous and of ideas. It will play a determining were the scene of insurgencies or military and bureaucratic decision national and international actors the root causes of displacement, damaging repercussions. It delays role in whether we can turn the extremist activities. Fighting cor- makers to work together. The pri- that agreed with the need to through conflict prevention and the return to peace and prosperity awful tragedies of the past few ruption thus becomes a prerequi- vate sector, of course, has a role increase our national and multilat- linking development policies and for their countries, which would years around and build a lasting site for sustainable military sup- to play as well, so that efforts are eral capacities in anti-corruption. human mobility. allow them to go back home. It peace. port, security, and development. truly comprehensive. The Munich Security Conference And we must support coun- feeds fear and resentment, with If we help refugees rather than Lack of monitoring and control Compliance and due diligence is one example and we hope this tries of first asylum and transit negative consequences for all. And fear them, we stand a chance of of spending resources and accept- are especially important when year’s cooperation event on “Tack- states. For the most part, people it risks becoming a self-fulfilling breaking this cycle of violence. ing corruption as a fact of mission defense capacity building involves ling state fragility and failure: the would rather stay closer to home, prophecy, creating the problem it But we will never achieve an end life not only contribute to state arms transfers aimed at increas- corruption dimension” will help to but they are increasingly finding seeks to avoid, rather than fixing to conflict if its victims continue instability, it also endangers the ing the receiving armed forces’ promote more widespread debate their neighboring countries over- the root cause. to be mistaken for its cause. n lives of soldiers and civilian per- capacity and enhancing interop- on these issues. n

Quarzwerke – more than just mining

· Sustainable long term vision · Reliable supplier to key industries · Innovative products – traditional values · Motivated and responsible workforce · Strongly committed to biodiversity Quarzwerke A FAMILY ENTERPRISE SINCE 1884

www.quarzwerke.com 14 February 2015

The Security Times • Strategy

picture alliance/dpa/epa/Cpl Janine Fabre Command Sergeant Major Delbert D. Byers saluting during the presentation of the Resolute Support Colors at the Change of Mission Ceremony in Kabul, Afghanistan, Dec. 28, 2014. NATO-led coalition forces held a flag-changing ceremony in Kabul amidst tight security to mark the end of their 13-year-old active combat. After ISAF: Resolute support NATO’s new mission in Afghanistan – and new challenges in Europe | By Hans-Lothar Domröse

ith the success- transitioned, over a period of gency was a huge challenge but, compared with just two flying to equipped and trained to be able to package of Alliance activities that ful completion of many months, from coalition with the assistance of NATO and Kabul in 2000. In addition 30 per- allow the sovereign government collectively implement NATO’s the International forces to the ANSF. partner forces, extraordinary cent of the population now benefit to determine its own future in a Strategic Concept. At the Opera- Security Assistance As ANSF numbers, capabilities progress has been made and the from grid-based electricity – cities sustainable way. tional level the working tempo ForceW (ISAF) mission at the end and operational success increased, ANSF has matured into what it such as Kabul, Herat, Mazar-e- Resolute Support is not a is high as a raft of challenges are of 2014, NATO entered a new their confidence noticeably grew is today – a competent force of Sharif, and Pul-e-Khomri, now combat mission. Significantly tackled head-on. chapter in its enduring relation- and a positive momentum was brave and determined profession- have a permanent 24-hour power smaller than ISAF, RS will train, For example, all Headquarters ship with the Afghanistan govern- established. The ANSF – grew als who increasingly demonstrate supply. advise and assist Afghan security of the NATO Command Struc- ment. Our new mission, “Reso- to a total of more than 350,000 they are capable of providing a In 2002 Afghanistan had less forces in a clear and supporting ture are on a path to achieve lute Support,” brings together comprising the 175,800-strong relatively safe and secure environ- than one million students enrolled role – but not substitute them. full operational capability (FOC) around 12,000 military personnel Afghan National Army (ANA), an ment for the Afghan people. in its schools; today over 7 million It will concentrate its efforts on within the new working frame- from across the globe. Signifi- children attend school, and of national and institutional-level work (implemented in December cantly, the 28 NATO Allies are UZBEKISTAN Tajikistan these 37 percent are girls. About training, increasing capability in 2012) by the end of 2015. The joined by 14 partner nations – a ISAF soldiers 85 percent of the population live ministries and the higher levels exercise Trident Juncture 15, clear signal that stability in central killed in in districts that now have provid- of army and police command. taking place in multiple loca- Asia remains an important issue Afghanistan 4 23 31 3 ers to deliver basic health services. RS concentrate its work on eight tions across the Alliance includ- to geographically separated but Infant and under-five mortality essential functions: Budgeting; ing Italy, Portugal and Spain in economically connected nations Turk- 17 Germany 1 has declined and life expectancy Oversight; Civilian Governance autumn 2015, will serve as the menistan 17 3 around the world. 36 at birth has risen to 64. of the ASI/ANSF; Force Gen- joint certification venue for our 35 10 80 64 The story of NATO’s enduring 26 177 Afghans are embracing new eration; Sustainment; Strategy FOC and the NATO Response and successful partnership with 2 183 media and technology. Cell ser- and Policy Planning, Resourc- Force (NRF) 16. Also, in con- 54 130 68 55 Afghanistan has many chapters, Italy 30 vice coverage has expanded by ing, and Execution; Intelligence; cert with our sister JFC (Naples) each of which was fully support- 115 47 80 percent since 2000; 60 percent and Strategic Communication we are committed to the NRF US Turkey ive of the mission’s aims and 53 69 of Afghans have mobile phones; (STRATCOM). RS will be con- and sustained implementation objectives. The first chapter com- 124 146 52 percent have a television set; ducted across Afghanistan using a of assurance measures following menced back in December 2001, 952 US and 65 percent have access to hub-and-spoke approach. Kabul, Russia’s illegal annexation of with ISAF’s establishment as a internet connections. The media as the central hub, will serve mis- Crimea and continued military Iran Kabul-centric mission tasked to 6 US 955 Pakistan is flourishing: there are now more sion spokes located in Mazar- activities along Ukraine’s eastern help stabilize the new govern- than 175 FM radio stations, 75 e-Sharif, Herat, Kandahar, and border. ment. From the outset it was clear television channels, news agen- Jalalabad, from where mission- In balancing these tasks we that ISAF would develop into 300 km Source: ISAF; OEF cies and hundreds of publica- specific efforts will be performed need to ensure that the Alliance more than a NATO-only mis- tions, including at least seven and coordinated. can fully address the breadth of sion; partner nations were invited increase of more than 78,000 since At a time when 88 percent of daily newspapers. With this new mission, we will security challenges it might face. and welcomed into a coalition October 2009, and the 153,000- Afghans expressed confidence in And we should not forget continue to help the Afghan secu- We will significantly enhance of nations willing and able to strong Afghan National Police the ANA and 72 percent in the Afghanistan’s foreign relations. rity forces become self-generating, the responsiveness of our NRF help build peace and security in (ANP), an increase of 58,000 per- ANP – an incredible testament to President Ghani has taken sig- so that the ANSF continue to by developing force packages Afghanistan. sonnel. As they assumed the lead their achievement – NATO was nificant strides toward improv- improve the skills it needs to make that are able to move rapidly It soon became clear that the for operations the ISAF troops in the throes of its final transfor- ing relationships with regional the country safe, and keep it safe. and respond appropriately to mission would be more effec- were gradually drawn down. mation from ISAF to Resolute neighbors in an effort potential threats quickly. As tive if it had greater reach A capable and well-motivated Support: Regional Commands to help Afghanistan part of this, we will establish a beyond Kabul. It was therefore force, the ANSF and their super- became Train-Assist-Advise- move forward on a Very High Readiness Joint Task expanded to the North in 2004, vising Ministries planned, coor- Commands, the ISAF Joint Com- more stable platform Hans-Lothar Domröse Force (VJTF). This will be a new is a German General and since the West in 2005 and the South dinated and executed security mand (IJC) and the majority of its of physical and eco- December 2012 Commander Allied joint force that will be in 2006. At its peak, in 2010, arrangements for notable events bases closed, and new headquar- nomic security. In of Joint Force Command (JFC) able to deploy within a few days ISAF comprised operational- throughout 2014 such as: the ters structures and facilities were particular, President Brunssum, The Netherlands. to respond to challenges that level and training headquar- Presidential election (more than being finalized. Ghani has placed arise, particularly at the periph- ters, six regional commands seven million people turned out Thirteen years of progress have renewed focus on nato ery of NATO’s territory. This and 142,000 personnel under its to register their vote), the Loya started to rebuild Afghanistan building a positive and force should consist of a land command and control. For over Jirga (2,000 participants from after decades of war and strife. effective relationship component with appropriate air, a decade, a total of 51 NATO all 34 provinces), the Ghazni Afghanistan has achieved the fast- with Pakistan. maritime and special operations and partner nations contributed Islamic Festival (6,000 partici- est economic growth in South The transition from ISAF to We are not closing the book on forces. to the mission in partnership pants), First Vice President Fahim Asia in the combined areas of Resolute Support (RS) is NATO’s our partnership with Afghanistan; We will also ensure that Allied with our Afghan hosts – an Khan’s funeral, the opening of health, education and living first chapter in the “Transforma- we are opening a new and differ- forces maintain the readiness unprecedented achievement. parliament, and the Mazar-i standards; whilst maternal mor- tion Decade,” from now until ent chapter. and coherence needed to conduct One of the key requirements Sharif Nawroz festivities (10,000 tality is decreasing, overall life 2024. NATO remains commit- Whilst Afghanistan remains NATO’s full range of missions, for the Afghan government was participants). Their efforts cul- expectancy is rising. Afghanistan ted, as reaffirmed during the of paramount importance to including deterring aggression the establishment of Afghan minated with the Milestone 13 now has more than 34,000 km 2014 Wales Summit and London the Alliance, first and foremost, against NATO Allies and demon- National Security Forces (ANSF) Ceremony, the final handover of of roads and ‘Highway 1,’ which Conference, to working with our NATO is committed to safeguard strating preparedness to defend able to provide security for its security responsibility to Afghan is planned to ring the country, Afghan partners to continue to the freedom and security of all its NATO territory. This is another citizens. Keeping to a well- authorities. is now 90 percent built. Twelve ensure a safer, increasingly pros- members. This means that activi- challenging chapter, but NATO orchestrated plan, the lead for Building a capable ANSF at the international airlines serve most perous, and stable Afghanistan, ties undertaken in central Asia are is ready to meet it with confi- security activities was slowly same time as fighting an insur- of Afghanistan’s major cities, underpinned by security forces part of a broader comprehensive dence. n February 2015 15

erman industry is The Security Times • Strategy cess within a reasonable amount trial protection strategy. In inter- becoming increasingly of time at reasonable costs. If national law the task must be to aware of the influence investment projects come to grief remove the legal basis for illegal of geopolitics on the through bureaucratic obstacles or state activities and to create the securityG of our business enter- preconditions for averting and arbitrary political interference, or prises. There are good reasons if business relations are dictated combating dangers more efficiently for our government to engage by corruption, then this can be by adapting international regula- more closely with global devel- a matter of commercial life and tions. The latter is especially true opments. And for business to be death, particularly for medium- for protecting global trade and more closely integrated into a sized companies. logistics chains more effectively. reliable and coherent foreign and Such scenarios can rapidly A consistent pan-European phy

a • security policy. assume major economic dimen- security policy must be devised ogr t

As an industrial nation, Ger- ho sions, if internal political conflicts to safeguard Europe’s supply of P

n many has few equals in the extent io or international disputes drasti- raw materials and energy. In par- ct ru to which it is embedded in inter- t cally destabilize the state con- ticular, this means that the energy national value creation chains. ns cerned. Moreover, abrupt power single market must be completed /Co t

The nation’s competitiveness and ho with high-performance infrastruc- s changes or system changes can o t

its prosperity are based on eco- ho suddenly nullify existing invest- ture networks. Europe’s energy P

nomic participation in the exist- go/ ment protection – or lead to a sources, supplier countries and ma ing open world order, which is i market totally disappearing. transport routes must also be fur- Companies are asking the state to provide a secure business environment. characterized by trade in goods Security of supply in raw mate- ther diversified. This and the long- that is as free as possible alongside rials is a risk-laden issue for Ger- term securing of access to critical unrestricted access to procure- many and Europe. Their indus- raw materials require a geostrate- ment and sales markets. tries are highly dependent on the gic approach designed for the long Around one quarter of jobs in import of energy and mineral term – a criterion that also applies Germany – more than nine mil- Trade needs a to German foreign policy. supplies. Germany meets just 30 lion – depend on foreign trade percent of its total energy require- • Last but not least, it is neces- and the trend is upwards. Exports ments from its own domestic sary to preserve key technological make up around 50 percent of resources. Recently, the conflict capabilities of the security, defense Germany‘s gross domestic prod- secure environment between Russia and the Ukraine and IT industries in Europe with uct (GDP). Latest figures put the has brought home to us very dra- the aim of maintaining sovereign stock of German foreign invest- German security policy must take into account the needs matically the extent of Europe’s competence and und capacity to ment at over €1.2 trillion, with vulnerability. take action with regard to tech- nearly half of this sum accounted of the business sector | By Ulrich Grillo The situation is even more dras- nology and to security policy. for by investment in countries tic when it comes to strategic min- In his speech to the 50th outside the EU. supply of raw materials, German The annual damage suffered by will inevitably increase with the erals, such as rare earths, where Munich Security Conference last It is hardly surprising, then, foreign investment and the stabil- German industry, which is both steadily advancing digitization of the dependency on imports often year, President Gauck called for that in his opening speech to the ity of foreign markets are subject export-intensive and knowledge- our industrial processes. reaches 100 percent. The chal- a change in German foreign and 50th Munich Security Conference to political vicissitudes. intensive, is put at around €80 Apart from physical menaces lenge for security policy consists security policy. He argued that one year ago, German President German industry is exposed to billion. About one company in such as terrorism or crime, inad- in securing long term access to Germany should be more commit- Joachim Gauck defined “the pro- growing and increasingly com- three has so far already been the equacies of the rule of law and particularly critical raw materials ted to shaping a joint foreign and tection of the existing open world plex risks as a result of global- victim of such attacks. from a small number of producer security policy, acting in conjunc- order as a core interest of the ization and technological prog- In many countries, countries and also in preventing tion with its alliance partners; a foreign and security policy” of ress. The interconnectedness of economic espionage the use of raw materials exports policy that takes account of the Germany as an exporting nation. modern economies means that and industrial sabo- Ulrich Grillo as a political and strategic weapon interests of all and is fit for facing German industry endorses that events taking place very far away tage are part of the is president of the against third countries. future challenges. analysis. can quickly have a direct impact intelligence services’ Federation of German In the view of German industry, It is not the task of business Security – both national and on German companies. remit. The borderlines Industries (BDI). the following points are key to enterprises to define Germany’s international – is of prime impor- Foreign intelligence services, between such activities framing a national foreign and security policy. That is for the tance for the German business competitors, organized crime and and competitive espio- security policy to meet future politicians to decide. Yet any such Christian Kruppa community, and German industry extremists seek to gain illegal com- nage by business rivals challenges: definition can only be arrived at must play an active role in defin- petitive advantages and sources of are often blurred. The • An effective defense against on the basis of central values and ing and preserving it. In the long revenue by means of economic perpetrators make use espionage, sabotage, crime and founded on achieving a balance of term, trade and business activity espionage, sabotage and other of the whole arsenal of techniques: a lack of stability in important terror cannot be supplied by secu- national interests. It is therefore can only thrive in a secure environ- criminal acts. Such attacks also they are very successful in com- markets constitute a threat for rity authorities or business enter- essential to voice these social and ment. The conflict between Russia impact on the transport carriers bining IT attacks with non-digital German enterprises. If contracts prises on their own. It requires yet also economic interests. That is and Ukraine is the most recent and the infrastructures of global assault methods, for example by are not complied with at the concerted operational action by the task of the business community evidence of that, illustrating as it trade and logistics – the arteries human or electronic espionage. commercial level, they cannot all state and private agents within and its contribution to security does the extent to which the secure of our international value chain. The extent of this vulnerability always be enforced by legal pro- the framework of a national indus- policy. n

AMAXX® Receptacle combi- nations for Energy, Industial Ethernet Plugs for the world. 用于全世界的接插装置 and Automation.

CN China SGP Singapur IND Indien Headquarters MENNEKES Industrial Electric Co., Ltd. MENNEKES Electric Singapore Pte. Ltd. MENNEKES Electric India Ptv Ltd. MENNEKES Building B, No. 58 Quihuai Road No. 3 International Business Park No. 2 D, Dhanakotti Raja Street Elektrotechnik GmbH & Co. KG Jiangning Development Zone # 03-28 Nordic European Centre Gandhi Nagar Ekkatuthangal Industrial plugs and sockets 211100 Nanjing, PR China 609927 Singapore 600 032 Chennai, India Aloys-Mennekes-Straße 1 Tel. + 86 (0) 25 / 88 03 52 22 Tel. + 65 / 65 67 59 78 Tel. + 91 (0) 44 222 535 - 61 D-57399 Kirchhundem Fax + 86 (0) 25 / 88 03 53 33 Fax + 65 / 65 63 24 71 Fax + 91 (0) 44 222 535 - 65 Germany [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] www.MENNEKES.cn www.MENNEKES.com www.MENNEKES.in www.MENNEKES.de

AMAXX_Krone_290x260_Sept14.indd 1 30.01.2015 11:14:27 #vwfuture www.volkswagen.de/emobility

e-mobility from Volkswagen. The e-up! and the e-Golf. With the e-up! and the e-Golf, we are already bringing tomorrow’s mobility onto the road today. 100 % electric and emission-free, and as well adapted for everyday use as one expects from a Volkswagen. Major changes do not always have to feel like major changes.

Power consumption e-up! in kWh/100 km: 11.7 combined, CO2 emissions in g/km: 0.

Power consumption e-Golf in kWh/100 km: 12.7 combined, CO2 emissions in g/km: 0. Picture shows optional extras at an additional cost.

RZ_A_Emobility_ZFA_Hochhaus_290x530.indd 1 30.01.15 18:24 February 2015 Section B 17

Security Challenges

picture alliance/AA/Vladimir Shtanko The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe is playing a significant role as a mediator in the Ukrainian conflict: armored OSCE monitoring mission vehicles in Kiev, Nov. 13, 2014. An anchor of cooperative security Forty years after its foundation, the OSCE proves its relevance in the Ukraine conflict | By Didier Burkhalter and Ivica Dačić

he Ukraine crisis has The OSCE has made full use to security and resolve our differ- required. These civilian monitors ine dialogue instead of parallel report on the broader issues of diminished security for of its broad array of instruments ences through dialogue. It is our are doing a tremendous job and monologues. We owe it to our European security. Both reports all of us. to deal with this conflict. For the responsibility as political leaders they work in a very precarious citizens and future generations to will contain recommendations In the first place, it first time in more than a decade, to make sure that Europe will not environment. We need to provide make every possible effort to find on action points for policymak- Tis a tragedy for the Ukrainian participating states have agreed be divided again. the SMM with both the necessary ways collectively of rebuilding ers. While the Panel can come people. The armed conflict in to deploy new field missions – Regarding the Ukraine crisis, security equipment and qualified security with rather than against up with ideas, it is for the OSCE Eastern Ukraine has taken a the Special Monitoring Mission we should work collectively staff with relevant experience each other. participating states to find a way heavy toll on civilians. The recent to Ukraine (SMM) and a small towards a full and genuine com- in sometimes very specific areas This is why we, together with out of the crisis. upsurge of violence and indis- observer mission at two Rus- mitment by everyone involved such as crater analysis. The SMM our OSCE Troika partner Ger- Four decades ago, on Aug. 1, criminate shelling has brought sian checkpoints. These missions to a sustainable ceasefire and also needs faster access to critical many, have set up the Panel of 1975, European leaders gath- further misery to countless men, provide invaluable objective a swift implementation of the assets. Enhancing its tracking Eminent Persons to prepare the ered in Helsinki to sign the Final women and children. The recur- information about developments Minsk arrangements in their capacity through new technology basis for a constructive security Act. Although divided on many ring violations of international on the ground and have proven entirety. It is worth recalling that instruments is important, espe- dialogue across the Euro-Atlan- issues, they succeeded in iden- humanitarian law are unaccept- their ability to quickly react these arrangements resulted in a cially since the SMM monitors tic and the Eurasian regions. tifying common foundations of able and must stop. to the many incidents and The Panel is mandated to European security and commit- European security has sharply challenges. Other impor- reflect on how to rebuild ted to a new notion of coopera- deteriorated too. The numerous tant OSCE contributions trust among the OSCE par- tive and comprehensive security. violations of the Helsinki Prin- include the Project Office Ivica Dačić is Swiss Foreign Minister ticipating States and ensure While it took more than two ciples, including of territorial in Ukraine, the election Foreign Minister of Serbia more effective adherence years and over 2,400 meetings to and currently holds the Didier Burkhalter integrity, have thrown into ques- observation by the Office rotating chair (CiO) held the CiO position to the Helsinki Principles, establish consensus on the Final tion many assumptions about the for Democratic Institu- of the OSCE. in 2014. examine perceived threats Act, the result was truly astonish- post-Cold War European order. tions and Human Rights in the OSCE area and ing and has since transformed As trust between Russia and the (ODIHR) as well as the wikipedia/Dragan Žebeljan Europa forum luzern potential common solu- our continent. West has collapsed, we are all activities of the Represen- tions, and explore possi- Today, our continent is far heading for an uncertain future. tative on Freedom of the bilities for reinvigorating less divided than in the 1970s, Rather than progressing towards Media, the High Commis- cooperative security. but the common foundations of a Europe whole and free, there sioner on National Minorities noticeable reduction in military still cannot monitor some occu- The Panel consists of 15 distin- our security are eroding. War is political polarization and a and the Parliamentary Assem- activity for several months. They pied areas for security reasons guished individuals from across and insecurity have returned to dangerous increase in military bly. also brought about the release of and a lack of cooperation. the OSCE area. We are grateful Europe. We should do every- activity and belligerent rhetoric. The revived international rec- over 2,500 detainees. The efforts In addition to helping de-esca- to all of them, and in particular thing possible to reverse this In the context of these trou- ognition of the OSCE’s role as a by the Trilateral Contact Group late the Ukraine crisis, we firmly to Ambassador Wolfgang Isch- negative development. The bling developments, the Orga- provider of cooperative security to establish a lasting peace pro- believe that the OSCE has an inger who has agreed to act as vision and determination of the nization for Security and Co- is positive. What is needed most cess on the basis of the Minsk important role to play in finding chair. Following its first meeting founding fathers of the CSCE operation in Europe (OSCE) has now is political will to enable arrangements deserve our con- ways to reconsolidate European on the margins of the Munich should inspire our efforts to demonstrated its usefulness as a the OSCE to do two things: help tinuing full support. The only security as a common project. Security Conference on Feb. 8, reconsolidate European security bridge between the Euro-Atlantic the actors in the Ukraine crisis possible solution to this crisis is There is a worrying tendency 2015, the Panel will produce as a common project. and the Eurasian region. The reverse the logic of escalation for a political one. in the narratives on the crisis two reports in the course of this It is our firm belief that OSCE has promoted inclusive good, and address the broader Unwavering political and of European security and its year: an interim report, in par- strengthening the OSCE as an dialogue to advance the search crisis of European security. We material support for the Spe- causes to become increasingly ticular on lessons learned for anchor of cooperative security for a political solution to the need to redouble our efforts to cial Monitoring Mission by all one-sided, exclusionary, and ste- the OSCE from its engagement in Europe would be an impor- Ukraine crisis. This includes preserve an inclusive approach OSCE participating states is also reotyped. What we need is genu- relating to Ukraine, and a final tant contribution to re-enhanc- chairmanship diplomacy, regu- ing security for all of us. For lar, extensive and often heated The agreement was drawn up by the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine, which consisted years, there have been discus- debates among the 57 participat- Minsk Agreement 2014 of representatives from Ukraine, Russia, and the OSCE. It was signed on Sept. 5, 2014. sions on reforming the OSCE and ing states in Vienna as well as strengthening its capacity to act, the indispensable facilitating role 1. Immediate ceasefire to be agreed by all ment of security zones in the border 9. Ensure organization of early local elec- be it the field of mediation sup- of the Special Representative of sides. areas of Ukraine and the Russian Fed- tions in accordance with the Ukrainian port or regarding other aspects the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office of the conflict cycle. Now is the 2. Ensure monitoring and verification of eration. law “On a temporary regime of local (CiO), Swiss Ambassador Heidi time for us to act. This year’s the ceasefire regime by OSCE. 5. Immediate release of hostages and ille- autonomy in some areas of Donetsk and Tagliavini, as a member of the ‘Helsinki+40’ commemoration gally detained persons. Luhansk” (Law on Special Status) Trilateral Contact Group that 3. Decentralize power, including through marks an opportunity for politi- 10. Withdraw illegal armed groups, military seeks to advance implementation adoption of a Ukrainian law “On a 6. Adoption of a law preventing pros- cal leaders to provide strategic equipment, as well as fighters and mer- of the Minsk arrangements. temporary regime of local autonomy ecution and punishment in connec- guidance as to where the OSCE cenaries from Ukrainian territory. The OSCE has also shown its in some areas of Donetsk and Luhansk” tion with events that took place in should be heading. It is a valu- relevance as a normative interme- (Law on Special Status). areas of Donetsk and Luhansk. 11. Adopt a program for the economic revival able opportunity, and one we diary, reminding states of their 4. Ensure permanent monitoring of the 7. Continue an inclusive national dialogue. are reconstruction of the Donbass region. should definitely seize. n commitments. Furthermore, it Ukrainian-Russian state border and veri- 8. Take measure to improve the humanitar- 12. Provide personal safety guarantees for has become the main operational fication by the OSCE with the establish- ian situation in the Donbass. the participants of the consultations. The article reflects develop­ responder to the Ukraine crisis. ments until Jan. 29, 2015. 18 February 2015

his year promises to be The Security Times • Challenges interests the way the Kremlin the most difficult for defines them. Yet Moscow’s Russia since the begin- challenge to the US-dominated, ning of the new century. The Kremlin perspective NATO-centric Euro-Atlantic AT combination of three forces security order does not mean that is hitting the country very hard: Russia will now seek to restore the structural economic problems; Russia wants to consolidate its new strategic perimeter without Soviet Union, or the Soviet sphere Western sanctions; and the plunge being drawn into a full-scale war | By Dmitri Trenin of influence in Eastern Europe. in the oil price. As a result, Rus- Rather, Russia will consolidate sia’s GDP is likely to contract by 5 its new strategic perimeter, which to 7 percent, inflation may rise to now includes Crimea, as well as 15 to 20 percent, unemployment Abkhazia and South Ossetia. And climb to 7 percent, and the capital it will continue to provide sup- flight reach $130 billion on top of port to Donbas, while avoiding $150 billion in 2014. Since last being drawn into a full-scale war summer, the ruble has already in Ukraine. As for the idea of a lost nearly half its value against Novorossiya (New Russia) from the major currencies. Kharkiv to Odessa, it has been Yet Russia looks generally calm, shelved indefinitely, if not forever. if increasingly concerned about Relations between Russia what the near future might bring. and Europe will never be the If presidential elections were held same after 2014, but Russia and now, polls indicate President Europe cannot afford not to have Vladimir Putin would win with a relationship. At the core of 71 percent of the vote, compared that relationship lies security. The with 63 percent in 2012. Opposi- Normandy format – France, Ger- tion to the system that Putin has many, Russia and Ukraine – has constructed remains weak and not been able yet to produce a lacking broad support. Govern- settlement to the Ukraine crisis, ment ministers are working round but it is the most appropriate the clock as crisis managers. Some mechanism for hammering out a are even hoping to use the dire formula for an eventual compro- situation to launch a new round mise. Holding open the lines of of reforms, which are essentially communication between Berlin impossible when the oil price is and Moscow, Paris and Moscow high. Neither the ministers nor is a key prerequisite for this, but Putin, however, have any doubt the Europeans also need to work ASS -T that the challenge they are facing R hard with Kiev to move it toward T I

is more serious than anything they go/ a more realistic stance toward ma have seen since 2000. i A Donbas. Preventing the conflict There is no illusion either as ditions make this for- reporting to the regional author- Golden future? Vladimir Putin in Eastern Ukraine from escalat- to the seriousness of the rupture mula more complex. ity rather than Kiev. enters a Kremlin meeting room ing to a European war is the most between Russia and the West. A They include direct These conditions remain unac- in December last year. Putin important task that responsible wants to open the doors to a new consensus of sorts exists within Dmitri Trenin negotiations between ceptable to Kiev, which treats era of Russian power – but could statesmen are facing this year. the Russian establishment that is Director Kiev, on the one the self-proclaimed Donetsk and If they succeed, Europe and of the Carnegie end up isolating Moscow from the sanctions the United States has Moscow Center. hand, and Donetsk Lugansk people’s republics as ter- Europe. Russia can move on to the next imposed on Russia for its actions and Lugansk on the rorist organizations run by “ban- target: repairing European secu- in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine other, on a special dits,” and insists on full re-inte- Donetsk and Lugansk. However, rity writ large. Using the 40th will stay for many years, possibly carnegie.ru status for the region gration of the territories within the more the situation stalls, with anniversary this year of the Hel- decades. The European Union is within Ukraine’s Ukraine’s unitary state. Kiev the only real contact between Kiev sinki Final Act, members of the believed to be too weak to begin “common political clearly fears giving Moscow a and the rebels being exchanges of Organization for Security and easing its own sanctions unilater- space”. This special foot in the door through Donbas. fire along the frontline, the more it Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) ally. Much as the Kremlin regrets Kiev, and will not even think of status would include a degree of A compromise between the two looks like Donbas is turning into need to start a serious conversa- the deterioration of relations with handing back Crimea. financial autonomy for Donbas; positions looks extremely remote, another Transnistria. tion about the continent’s cur- Europe, particularly with Ger- The Russian formula for a peace wide cultural autonomy, i.e. the the more so as Moscow does not Through its actions in Ukraine, rent security agenda, and set many, which it did not regard as settlement in Ukraine sounds use of the Russian language and see itself as a party to the inter- Russia did break out of the post- the stage for a new European an opponent (unlike the United simple: Crimea is ours, while of its own history textbooks; Ukrainian conflict, and Kiev is Cold War order in Europe. It security summit, possibly during States), Moscow will not simply Eastern Ukraine is Ukrainian – and security autonomy, with only prepared to discuss technical demonstrated a willingness to the period of the German OSCE abandon15-01-30_004_ID071b_eAz_Auckland_SecurityTimes_IsoNews_290x260_RZgp Donetsk and Lugansk to on certain conditions. The con- the police and security forces issues, not political ones, with protect and defend its national presidency in 2016. n

Effi cient EPB Shield S-764 with an electrical drive and independent culvert gantry for laying the tunnel fl oor, from the start making Mega Project continuous headway – up to 126 m a week.

Auckland Waterview Connection: New Zealand’s largest-ever road project counts on the reliability and expertise of market leader Herrenknecht. Our 14 m+ diameter TBMs have completed more than 51 km of road tunnels worldwide.

14.4 m Client: Intermediate breakthrough for ‘Alice’, New Zealand Transport Agency whose large diameter makes it one Contractors: of the biggest TBMs in the world. Fletcher Construction Ltd. McConnell Dowell Constructors Ltd. Obayashi Corporation

Pioneering Underground Technologies

www.herrenknecht.com/alicetbm

15-01-30_004_ID071b_eAz_Auckland_SecurityTimes_IsoNews_290x260_RZgp.indd 1 30.01.15 15:20 February 2015 19

The Security Times • Challenges Innovative solutions Fears of war for the highest IT in Europe security requirements. It will take political will and courage on all sides to restore peace | By James D. Bindenagel Attacks on computers and networks are on the rise. Cyber crime hen I arrived in aggressive nationalism and hege- crisis and have sanctions lifted. and data theft have dramatic consequences ranging from enormous Germany last fall monic aspirations and rejection Russian cooperation is needed economic damage to loss of image and customers. at Bonn Univer- of democracy, rule of law, sov- to defuse conflicts with ISIS and sity, I expected ereignty and self-determination Iran where people are dying. Years of work can be destroyed in minutes. toW find Europe as I had left it that has reminded the US and The EU, the US and Russia are when I stepped down as acting Europe that transatlantic security therefore called to defuse this Rohde & Schwarz supports government, society and business US Ambassador: whole and free is indivisible. increasingly dangerous confron- with IT solutions and encryption technology made in Germany. and at peace, confident in the Russia and the West have tation. Maintaining open com- principles of sovereignty, self- competing narratives to explain munication is crucial. Twenty- determination and democracy. Putin’s actions. Putin and those five years after its signature, it Ensure your security at: The reality was different though. seeking to “understand” Putin in may be the right time to call for The Russian invasion of his new strategic doctrine asserts a Charter of Paris ‘review confer- www.rohde-schwarz.com Ukraine, annexation of Crimea the West is responsible for Putin’s ence’ to avoid new confronta- and destabilization of Eastern action in Ukraine. Putin argues tions over the role of NATO, Ukraine pose a fundamental the West’s actions are aimed at Russia’s action in Ukraine and challenge to the agreed principles violent change of the Russian economic sanctions. and norms set Any stance down in the accommodat- Charter of Russia and the West ing the mili- Paris, which tary invasion, have kept have competing a n n e x a t i o n Europe stable and desta- for the past narratives to explain bilization in 25 years. Was Ukraine would I now to wit- Putin’s actions. put the Char- ness the end of ter of Paris the peaceful era in Europe that I constitutional order, destabili- principles on peace, security, had seen begun in the Peaceful zation of the political and social self-determination and stability Revolution while a US diplomat environment, disorganization of in Europe at risk. Therefore, the in East Germany? the functioning of governmental Organization for Security and The fulfillment of the Charter bodies, crucial civilian and mili- Cooperation in Europe, OSCE, of Paris vision of a new Europe, tary facilities and informational which includes Russia and the crafted at the unification of Ger- infrastructure of Russia. US, is an inclusive framework that many, is clearly evident, despite Putin sees NATO’s expansion provides an apt forum to bring all some intractable issues. The and military buildup as NATO European powers together, can European Union is democratic taking upon itself “global func- create an open process of reassess- and prosperous; with the US it tions realized with violation of ment of successes, complaints and has contained the Balkan Wars international law” including problems. The interested parties and has managed the euro crisis. a NATO military buildup and could devise a workable – and Germany, surrounded by friends American Prompt Global Strike mutually accepted – approach and reconciled with Poland, has concept. He has claimed Rus- to implementing the principles marked a new partnership in sia’s intervention in Ukraine is enshrined in the Paris Charter the EU and NATO. President a humanitarian act to protect while reflecting the realities of the Joachim Gauck in his speech ethnic Russians, undermining 21st century. to the Munich Security Confer- the established rule of law. Fur- This approach would renew ence in February 2014 challenged ther, the narrative continues that the legitimacy of the fundamen- Germany to accept more interna- the present order was imposed tal principles presently at stake tional responsibility marking a by the West, while Russia’s con- and strengthen commitments to new role for the country, and the structive proposals for a more preserve and protect them. At challenge was being met. egalitarian institutional order, the same time, it would provide Even troublesome issues such including those of a Eurasian a forum to discuss concrete ways as austerity-encouraged right- Union and a pan-European secu- in which to further develop the wing party populism, demon- rity system have largely fallen on European security architecture strations by a group calling itself deaf ears. – including, but not limited to, “Patriotic Europeans Against Russia’s ideas of a Islamization of the West” Eurasian Union with ¸SITLine ETH encryptor (Pegida), Putin’s propaganda the European Union James D. Bindenagel, plays on fears of war, and hor- a former US ambassador, and a European secu- rors of Islamic State terrorism is the Henry Kissinger rity system in concert have been managed well by gov- Professor for International Security and Governance with NATO. ernment and society, solidarity at Bonn University. It could be imple- not often seen in the EU. Yet mented in two con- cracks have appeared. andreas archut/uni bonn secutive steps: a US-German and transatlantic review conference relations are important to the with OSCE member European order. Germany has states, including the become the natural leader of Western scholars, analysts US and Russia, to be held in a Europe and increasingly both and politicians are scrambling European capital on the occa- politically and economically to explain Putin’s invasion of sion of the 25th anniversary of ¸SITGate L500 next-generation firewall America’s indispensable ally, yet Ukraine, the annexation of the Charter of Paris in 2015 in my classroom and in public Crimea and the destabilization and to be followed by high-level debates, I am confronted with a of Eastern Ukraine in different consultations. A high-level, com- loss of trust in the US that risks terms. Europe and the US have prehensive dialogue on a strategy seriously damaging the close US- framed their response to Russia’s for the 21st century conducted German relations and the trans- actions and accusations along the under the German chairmanship atlantic partnership. lines of a clear choice between of the OSCE in 2016 could begin The litany of disappointments nationalism and the principle with an initiative Ambassador over the past several years – the of ‘Might makes Right’ on the Wolfgang Ischinger plans for 2003 Iraq War, Guantánamo one hand and democracy, respect the upcoming Munich Security prisoners and torture, NSA affair for sovereignty and the rule of Conference. and Snowden leaks, corporate law on the other. The Russian The Charter of Paris review influence in the Transatlantic humanitarian intervention argu- conference itself should be an Trade and Investment Partner- ment for intervening in Ukraine open dialog to discuss options for ship (TTIP) – have changed the makes a mockery of the UN adapting the European security image of the US. The American Principle of the Responsibility architecture to the realities of political process of democrati- to Protect. the 21st century and making it cally addressing more resilient and correcting and result in a these detours The EU, political man- from shared date affirming values and the US and Russia the adapted constitutional validity and p r o t e c t i o n s are called to defuse relevance of has begun, the principles notably with this increasingly dangerous adopted in Senator Diane 1990. The F e i n s t e i n ’ s confrontation. outcome of report on tor- this two-step ture. Nevertheless, turning the Setting aside a military inter- process will be a strategy paper American commitment to Europe vention, the US and Europe with the explicit ambition to remains strong. have no choice but to impose guide European security coop- Russia’s President Vladimir sanctions and to strengthen the eration more broadly over the Putin’s open challenge to the NATO Treaty’s Article V defense course of the next decade. Charter of Paris vision of a new clause - to protect the principles Peace in Europe is broken. All Europe and his worldview – and of peace, not to threaten Russia. parties, including Russia and the indeed that of many members of Successive rounds of sanctions United States, need the political Russia’s elite – is premised on a have progressively increased the will and courage to preserve and perceived need to restore Russia pressure on Putin as the Rus- adapt the principles on which to its former position of influ- sian economy now seems headed our freedom, peace, and secu- ence and greatness in its “near towards a prolonged and severe rity depend. The 1990 Charter abroad” and – by extension – in recession. The Kremlin still seems of Paris for a new Europe is the the world. It is this policy of undeterred to resolve the Ukraine place to begin. n 20 February 2015

The Security Times • Challenges

Mutual interests: Gas wells of Gazprom on the Kovykta gas field.

picture alliance/dpa/RIA Novosti/Igor Ageyenko he concept of energy of Siberian up-stream projects security was born 100 in exchange for the purchase years ago. At that time, of BASF’s subsidiary Wingas. the British Navy con- Peace through gas These companies have been at vertedT their ships from coal to the core of the German-Russian oil, aiming to be faster and more Europe needs an affordable and reliable flow of gas, energy partnership from the very economic than the German fleet. beginning. The sudden end of Faced with criticism from the Russia a stable demand | By Friedbert Pflüger this deal hints at the damage opposition that Britain would that geopolitical developments thereby become dependent on for- exploration remains strong. In a Nabucco-Pipeline. TAP will ship 2017. But Erbil has made it clear litical risks make it unlikely that have caused recently. Did the eign oil exports, the First Admiral best-case scenario, those reserves gas – via Turkey, Greece, Albania that it wants to meet domestic the vital role of Russia as a major trust, which had been built over of the Navy, Winston Churchill, could one day compensate for the – to Italy and other EU-states. needs first. Here, too, the overall supplier of gas for Europe can be five decades, vanish in just five replied: “...no one country, on decreasing conventional produc- This is a step in the right direc- geopolitical situation, given the diminished within the next two months? How long will it take no one route, and on no one field tion. They will not decisively tion, but not more: Initially, TAP assault of ISIS-terrorists, seems decades. On the contrary: the to rebuild it? must we be dependent. Safety and diminish the EU’s dependence can only transport 10 billion all but stable. EU’s dependence on Russian gas The “Gas for Pipes” deal certainty [...] lie in variety and from gas-imports. cubic meters of gas a year, less • Iranian gas on the hori- might in fact even grow. Europe’s between Germany and the Soviet variety alone.” • US Liquefied Natural Gas than 2 percent of the EU’s annual zon. Iran holds the world’s larg- overall gas consumption will not Union in the early 1970s was After the two Ukrainian-Rus- (LNG). The shale revolution in consumption. est natural gas reserves. The increase due to higher efficiency of great importance to maintain sian gas conflicts in 2006 and the US has increased the coun- • Eastern Mediterranean Gas. announced new law to re-attract and the rise of renewable energy. peace in Europe. Despite the Cold 2009 and even more so in today’s try’s gas production by a third. Substantial gas finds However, about 40 percent more War, the arms race and all the ide- confrontation between the West In 2009, the US surpassed Russia have been made in the gas imports will be needed by ological confrontation, Moscow and Moscow, energy security has to become the world’s top natural Eastern Mediterra- Friedbert Pflüger is Director 2035 – due to the fast decline of and Bonn managed to establish a of the European Centre for Energy been catapulted to the top of gas producer. However, the recent nean Sea off the coast and Resource Security (EUCERS), most indigenous European gas reliable energy partnership – with Europe’s agenda. The EU seems price decrease threatens to derail of Israel and Cyprus. King’s College London. He was a fields. Consequently, Russia will the support of Germany’s western strongly determined to diversify the advancement of US shale pro- A solution that will member of the German Bundestag remain a major part of the Euro- allies. It worked because it was away from Siberian gas. But all duction. The costs of horizontal make the most sense for two decades and is pean energy equation. not a one-sided dependence. Just a former State Secretary in the available options are too little and drilling and hydraulic fracturing for all parties involved German Defense Ministry. The Russian decision to ter- as Germany needed an affordable would come too late. They will are high and many businesses is to build a pipeline minate South Stream does not and reliable flow of gas, Russia private not be sufficient to replace Russia will slip deep into the red. Add from the Israeli Levia- threaten this flow. It was a pure needed a stable demand. Over as a major gas supplier for Europe in the transportation costs from than field, via Cyprus business decision. The pipeline decades, this interdependence has in the foreseeable future. America to Europe and Russia (where it would take was oversized and financially not proved to be a stabilizing factor There are basically six options will always be able to compete up additional gas) to Turkey and foreign investment in this sector sustainable from the beginning. in foreign policy. for the EU to diversify its gas with US LNG. Moreover, due to from there to the EU. While this could spark an energy revival. New and costly Gazprom up- Gas is not just a commodity. supplies: much higher gas prices offered in pipeline has the potential to be Iran has the potential to become stream projects, the expensive Pipeline gas, especially comes as • European domestic mea- Asia, supplies of US shale gas will a peace-builder, it seems more a game-changer in the world of construction of the huge Power a service with long lasting and sures. Over the last years, the not aim for the Old World. likely that the geopolitical con- energy. Iranian gas could quite of Siberia pipeline to China and stabilizing implications – the huge EU has been expanding storage- • Azeri gas via TAP. The first flicts in the region will complicate easily find its way to Europe. the LNG Terminal in Vladivo- investments in exploration, pro- facilities, building interconnec- realistic diversification option is its realization. But as long as there is no nuclear stok naturally led to the demise duction, transport and distribu- tors, improving its reverse flow gas from Azerbaijan, which is • Gas from Iraqi Kurdistan. deal and sanctions are not lifted, of South Stream – even before the tion need many years to become capabilities and increasing effi- supposed to reach Europe via Significant gas resources have also Iran cannot make a difference present economic crisis in Russia. beneficial for supplier and con- ciency to enhance its capacity the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) been found in Iraqi Kurdistan. for Europe. Much more alarming in the cur- sumer. Therefore: Let us define to survive in times of crisis. It by 2019. TAP was chosen by The Kurdistan Regional Govern- It is important to follow up on rent situation is Gazprom’s ter- our mutual interests – and weigh has discovered considerable shale the Shah Deniz Consortium in ment (KRG) has concrete plans these potential options for diver- mination of its deal with German them against the misperceptions, gas reserves. But public rejection Baku as it seemed more eco- to export large quantities of its sification. But domestic strains, chemical giant, BASF. Gazprom mistakes and misconduct of of their exploitation, or even nomical than its competitor, the gas to Turkey and beyond by technical limitations and geopo- had been willing to grant shares recent days. n

The Frankfurter Allgemeine Forum and the Munich Security Conference (MSC) will be co-organizing the 3rd annual »Energy Security Summit 2015« under the patronage of Federal Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Federal Minister for Economics and Energy Sigmar Gabriel.

International decision-makers from the worlds of politics, business and science will convene for the ENERGY SECURITY Energy Security Summit 2015 in Berlin on 6/7 May, chaired by Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger (MSC) and publisher Berthold Kohler (F.A.Z.). The summit will once again promote interdisciplinary discourse for international exchange concerning the global changes in the energy markets, a sustainable security of SUMMIT 2015 energy supply and the geopolitical implications of a potential next »great game«. In addition to the summit, Frankfurter Allgemeine Forum and MSC provide exclusive side events at well-known international conferences for high-ranking decision-makers to discuss important issues 6/7 May, Berlin regarding Energy Security, each time considering a specific regional or topical edge.

More information and registration: www.faz-forum.com/ess2015 and www.securityconference.de/energy Foto: PashaIgnatov | iStockphoto

UNDER THE PATRONAGE OF ACADEMIC PARTNER CORPORATE PARTNER MEDIA PARTNER February 2015 21

he conflict over Nago- The Security Times • Challenges in the World War I. After the members Belarus, Germany, Fin- rno-Karabakh between 1915 genocide, Russian Armenia land, Italy, Sweden and Turkey as Armenia and Azerbai- became their new homeland. well as Armenia and Azerbaijan jan is the most com- The forgotten The ethnic aspect of the and, on a rotating basis, the OSCE plicatedT territorial dispute in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can troika, has yet to overcome the post-Soviet region. For more than be traced back to demographic intransigence of the warring states. two decades it has contributed changes. Until the Russian annexa- Armenia rejects the principles to destabilization in the region tion the territory was inhabited supported by all other states in the and blocked the South Cauca- conflict primarily by Muslims. But more Minsk Group, of both republics’ sus as a transit corridor. Because and more Armenians left Turkey territorial integrity, legal status all attempts to negotiate a peace The obduracy of the warring countries Armenia and Azerbaijan in the 19th century, by 1917 they for Nagorno-Karabakh based on treaty or enforce a ceasefire in the constituted 93 percent of the popu- self-determination and self-admin- area have failed, the status quo in has defeated every attempt to stop the bloodshed lation. During the Soviet era, how- istration, and guaranteed security the South Caucasus has become a in Nagorno-Karabakh | By Richard Kiessler ever, demographic trends in Nago- for the enclave. Repeated bilateral forgotten conflict. That’s although rno-Karabakh favored the Azeri talks between presidents Ilham violence claims fresh victims on an population. But in 1920, the Azer- Aliyev of Azerbaijan, Armenia’s almost daily basis along the cease- baijani Revolutionary Commit- Robert Kocharyan and his suc- fire line since Nagorno-Karabakh Caspian tee handed Nagorno-Karabach as cessor Serzh – both of whom were Georgia Russia and seven additional rayony, or Sea well as the territories Nakhichivan born in Nagorno-Karabakh – have departments, in Azerbaijan were and Zangezur to the Armenian failed to break the deadlock. occupied by Armenia. The more Khachmaz Soviet Republic. One year later, Russia’s closest (and poorest) than 50 deaths along the “line of again under substantial political ally Armenia demands self-deter- conflict” in 2014 were the highest Shaki pressure, the Soviets’ “Caucasus mination for the people of Nagor­ total there since 1994. Bureau” gave Nagorno-Karabakh no-Karabakh – a thoroughly The conflict in Ukraine has com- back to Azerbaijan. That’s how self-serving demand, given the plicated efforts at resolving other ArmEnia it remained until the Communist region’s now almost exclusively- Mingachevir territorial conflicts within the Ganja A zerbaijan empire started to dissolve. Armenian population. former Soviet Union. They seem Yevlakh Sumgayit After 15 new to all follow the same pattern: Claimed by the national states had at some point they are “frozen,” "Nagorno-Karabakh Baku declared their inde- Richard Kiessler was yet continue to smolder – as is Republic" but controlled pendence on the ter- diplomatic correspondent Yerevan for Der Spiegel (1978-93), threatening to happen even in the Nagorno- by Azerbaijan. ritory of the eroding chief editor of the Neue Rhein/ disputed Donbas region. Russia Karabakh USSR, several smol- Neue Ruhr Zeitung (1994-2008) generally attempts to maintain a Shirvan dering territorial and foreign policy correspondent hand in lost areas of influence this for the WAZ Media Group Stepanakert conflicts broke out in Europe (2008-2010). way. Not unlike the conflicts in into open warfare, private Georgia (Abkhazia/South Ossetia) including the dispute and Moldova (Transnistria), the between Armenia dispute surrounding Nagorno- Nakhchivan and Azerbaijan over Karabakh aims to change currently Nagorno-Karabakh. The war of Azerbaijan is demanding an end recognized borders – making it Armenian separatists backed by to the Armenian occupation, the more akin to the dispute over the Republic of Armenia and reinstatement of its sovereignty, occupied Crimea. Ir an isolated Russian units against return of refugees and autonomy The losers in this essentially the young Republic of Azerbai- for the enclave. Sanctions have ethnic dispute are, first of all, jan between 1992 and 1994 was been put in place to raise the pres- 50 km the two conflicting sides: the Astara won by Armenia. The costs were sure on Armenia. Armenians, who militarily won substantial. More than 30,000 A real settlement for Nagorno- the war over the enclave but “Nagorno-Karabakh Republic” conflict and offered Germany’s tian community was allowed people were killed and 586,000 Karabakh, on its own hardly a have no perspectives because of and call for the withdrawal of the assistance in finding one. to keep its religion and had its Azeris displaced by ethnic cleans- viable entity, has a chance only their dismal economic situation, Armenian occupation forces. Res- The conflict over the “moun- own leader. Then the Russian ing. Another 250,000 were if external powers, first and and the Azeris, whose riches in olutions of other bodies includ- tainous black garden” (as its name Empire annulled the Armenians expelled from Armenia. foremost Russia and the US, set oil and gas offer an outstanding ing the European Parliament and translates) has deep roots, even autonomy. The region belonged Ever since the ceasefire the aside their strategic rivalry in the economic outlook, but who have Germany’s Bundestag demand the though various ethnicities and to one of the many khanates of Organization for Security and South Caucasus, give priority lost a fifth of their territory and re-establishment of Azerbaijan’s religions coexisted peacefully in Azerbaijan. Armenia had neither Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) to the interests of Armenia and must cope with a huge refugee territorial integrity. During a visit the region for hundreds of years. an ethnic nor a political claim to has tried unsuccessfully to mediate Azerbaijan and open the path to problem. to Berlin on Jan. 21 by Azeri Presi- In the rugged west of Azerbaijan, the territory. a negotiated peace. The negotiat- compromise. For the forseeable The legal situation is clear. Four dent Ilham Aliyev, Chancellor today a majority Muslim state, The Armenians settled pri- ing format, known as the Minsk future, however, the status quo UN resolutions uphold Azerbai- Angela Merkel reaffirmed her call Christianity survived through the marily in northeastern Turkey, Process with the co-chairs France, with all its inherent risks is likely jan’s claim to the unrecognized for a “peaceful resolution” of the centuries. Up to 1836, the Chris- from where they were expelled Russia and the US and permanent to smolder on. n

Cyberspace Needs Norms Cyber conflict and cyberwar are not just theoretical but actual possibilities that need to be considered and addressed. Information and communications technology creates benefits for states and their citizens alike, but technologies can and are being exploited by a variety of government actors with differing motivations and means. For nearly two decades, the cybersecurity community has warned of the increasing number and sophistication of cyber attacks. But now, cyberspace is being operationalized by some nation states as a domain for conflict, dramatically escalating the threat. In this shared and tightly integrated domain, any escalation of hostilities could result in unintended and even catastrophic consequences.

Reducing this risk requires an inclusive global dialogue on the development of norms that advance cybersecurity. Microsoft proposes six norms to limit conflict in cyberspace.

Read more at http://aka.ms/cybernorms 22 February 2015

The Security Times • Challenges

imago/Xinhua Pakistani activists participate in a rally for the victims of the Peshawar school massacre, in southwest Pakistan’s Quetta on Dec. 21, 2014. At least 141 people, mostly children, were killed by Taliban terrorists who attacked the army-run school in Pakistan's northwestern provincial capital of Peshawar on Dec. 16. China inherits Obama’s nightmare As NATO withdraws from Afghanistan, the continuing terrorism emanating from there and Pakistan has become a security threat to China | By Ahmed Rashid

wo weeks before Barack anti-intellectual, soldier’s soldier camps in the mountains, fear- that is unlikely given the lack of say whether General Sharif can Both Pakistan and Afghanistan Obama took his first army chief General Raheel Sharif ful that if they were presented leadership amongst them. take on what amounts to a total are increasingly looking at China oath of office as presi- (no relation to the prime minister) to the courts the judges would Then there is the question of restructuring of the state, but at to come to the rescue. Ambassa- dent of the United has gone on the offensive against let them off due to a lack of whether the army will go after least he has had the courage to dor Sun Yuxi, China’s special rep- StatesT in January 2009, he said the Pakistani Taliban in the tribal evidence. Moreover the govern- not just the Pakistani Taliban talk about extremism and the resentative for Afghanistan and that the country giving him the areas bordering Afghanistan. ment has been more concerned in the northwest but the tens of need to end it. Pakistan told me in November most sleepless nights was Paki- He has promised to clean up all about the threat it faces from the thousands of militants in Punjab Equally dangerous for the that, ”we are ready to do more, stan. Although nobody has asked terrorist groups, regain lost terri- non-cooperation campaign by and Karachi that the army itself entire region is the deteriorating we want to play a bigger role Obama recently – and in between tory and put an end to the good opposition leader Imran Khan had trained and armed to fight situation in Afghanistan, which (in Afghanistan).” He went on: lie the collapse of Syria and Iraq, Taliban, bad Tal- India in Kashmir. recently led to President Ghani “We would welcome the Taliban the rise of the Islamic State, iban syndrome that Will the army suggesting that US forces stay in any neutral venue such as in Ebola, tensions with Russia, Boko was the hallmark The Taliban help regulate some on beyond 2016 when all US China. We will make negotiations Haram and terrorism in Europe, of the military's 8,000 madrassas or troops are scheduled to leave. He happen but the process must be – he would probably still say that favoritism policy is on the offensive religious schools in was met with a flat ‘no’ from the Afghan owned and Afghan led.” Pakistan continues to give him for years. (The the country, many White House. The US declared In December a Taliban delegation sleepless nights. good Taliban were and the barely trained of which recruit for formal combat to be over on Dec. visited China for talks with Bei- The multiple crises in Pakistan those who killed terrorist groups? 31, 2014. jing at the same time as President today – terrorism, the ineffec- US and Afghan Afghan army Will the awful cur- However according to US offi- Ghani was there. tive government of Prime Min- troops rather than riculum of state cials the country will remain an The West hopes that China ister Nawaz Sharif, a belligerent Pakistani soldiers.) is only just holding schools and even area of active hostilities for the could broker a peaceful end to but ineffective opposition, a dire After the devas- the army's own time being as 10,600 US troops the civil war not least because it economy, chronic shortages of tating attack on its ground. training programs aided by another 2,000 Nato can put real pressure on its close gas and electricity, capital flight, an army school in that teach hatred troops and some 45,000 con- ally Pakistan. China's interests in mass migration and the military Peshawar in December that left than the threat from terrorism against non-Muslims also be tractors will continue training the region are multiple – the desire take over of the effective reigns nearly 150 children and teachers or judicial failure. changed? the Afghan army, launch special to tap into the mineral resources of foreign policy and some civil- dead, the army demanded that The army has also taken over Essentially, General Sharif’s forces operations against terror- of Afghanistan, to help Pakistan ian institutions – all point to the the Nawaz Sharif who only a foreign policy, in particular deal- message is: all in good time. But ists and use drones to fire missiles build an economic corridor from continuing breakdown of the few months ago was advocating ings with the US, Afghanistan he needs to move fast on several at targets in both Afghanistan and the Gulf port of Gwadar to the Pakistani state. dialogue with the Taliban, clamp and India. Tensions with India sensitive fronts. Just take a look at Pakistan. Chinese border but above all to Next door in neighboring down hard. The death penalty has are high, but the army appears foreign policy. Pakistan is involved Most Afghans do not believe deal with terrorism. Afghanistan where Pakistan’s been reinstated and over 500 con- to distrust any civilian leader to in shooting wars with three of its US promises that it will continue For years small numbers of Chi- military has been deeply involved victed terrorists could be hanged make peace with New Delhi. On neighbors at present – India, Iran funding and support for Afghani- nese Muslims or Uighurs from in backing the Taliban for the past in the months ahead. Afghanistan the army is finally and Afghanistan – and it is hugely stan’s economy and army. The Xinjiang have studied and trained 30 years, the situation is equally On Jan. 7 after much cajoling becoming more positive, demand- mistrusted by all regional coun- West has pledged $4 billion a year at madrassas in Pakistan and then dire. There is a huge question mark and pressure from the military, ing that once Ghani gets his house tries for its past use of jihadists to for budget support and salaries honed battle skills fighting with over whether newly elected Presi- parliament passed two bills amend- in order, the army will offer the pursue foreign policy the Taliban in Afghanistan. Now dent Ashraf Ghani can pull his ing the Constitution and the Army possibility of direct talks between aims, while giving shel- they are returning home either country out of the quagmire that Act to try civilian terrorist suspects Kabul and the Afghan Taliban ter to jihadists from as members of the banned East the Americans and NATO have in military courts. Past martial law leaders who are all residing in neighboring coun- Ahmed Rashid is the author Turkestan Islamic Movement or as left behind after they withdrew regimes have used military courts Pakistan. tries like the Afghan of the bestselling book “Taliban” militants linked to al-Qaeda. The the bulk of their troops last year. to punish and intimidate politi- What is abundantly clear is Taliban, the Iranian and a foreign policy expert continuing terrorism emanating on Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Taliban is on the offensive and cians, which is why many members that the army is very much here Jundullah group and from Pakistan and Afghanistan the barely trained Afghan army is of parliament were extremely reluc- to stay. The hard won battle Indian Kashmiris. has become a national security only just holding its ground. There tant to obey the army's marching for a semblance of democracy Pakistan is also private threat to China so there is much is no productive, revenue-yielding orders. For starters military courts that has seen for the first time enormously mis- more at stake now for China to economic activity, there is capital will try some 3,400 suspected ter- one elected government succeed trusted by the West, help a peace process. flight, no jobs and a huge increase rorists. The criminal justice system another could be in jeopardy. especially the US. The Ultimately foreign powers in opium production. had broken down years earlier Yet the army faces trouble ahead. West remains deeply concerned and another $4 billion a year for can do little to stabilize volatile However as the Munich summit and there was no attempt by the Even though it is operating just about the long-term safety of the Afghan military until 2017. domestic crises which both Paki- convenes there could be the begin- judiciary to reform the ancient and under the radar, we can expect Pakistan’s over one hundred There are serious doubts if the stan and Afghanistan are pres- nings of a slight thaw in the long next to useless state prosecution that civil-military relations will nuclear weapons and whether the money will be delivered given the ently going through. The idea that winter of insurgency, terrorism service or modernize the police worsen, the Islamic parties will extremism that has penetrated the renewed recession in Europe and nations have to be built from the and state failure that has gripped investigation process. The judges not play ball on any major coun- military will be dealt with ruth- the new military commitments bottom up, one step at a time and Afghanistan and Pakistan since were easily intimidated by the ter- ter terrorism policy, tensions lessly enough. Significantly most in the Middle East to deal with with honest and purposeful lead- the early 1990s. rorists. will persist on control of foreign of those dozen or so terrorists the Islamic State. Pakistani and ers has yet to penetrate the region. In Pakistan the army has taken As a result the army has, policy and the army itself could who have already been hanged Afghan officials are convinced No amount of foreign pressure charge although it has, for the according to Dawn newspa- become part of the problem. The were ex-armed forces personnel that the US is quickly walking or money can save a nation from moment, not overthrown the per, been secretly holding some answer is for the civilians to found guilty of taking part in away from the region despite US internal collapse if it is not willing government. The no-nonsense, 6,000 alleged terrorists in prison deliver on state building, but terrorist attacks. It is too early to statements to the contrary. to save itself. n February 2015 23

n Oct. 2, 2014, a ologies in India, have been facilitat- discussed ties with al-Qaeda and India is still mourning The Security Times • Challenges powerful improvised 160 people killed by ing the influx of hardened foreign Taliban to attack India. Revelation explosive device (IED) Pakistani gunmen terrorist groups. about the mujahedeen intention went off accidentally in Mumbai on Nov. 26, 2008. India’s 176 million Muslims to obtain a nuclear bomb from atO a secret bomb-making factory represent about 15 percent of Pakistan to attack the Indian city of of a group known as Al Jihad India’s population. Most adhere Surat, a city in Gujarat, sent shock in rural West Bengal. Investiga- to the moderate Berlevi form of waves throughout India. tors identified the device as the Islam, but in recent times it’s Some 25 Indian Muslim youths handiwork of Bengali, an Indian estimated that as many as 20 per- have already responded to IS chief terrorist leader affiliated with al- cent have been lured to Wahhabi Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s call in gi

Qaeda and Bangladesh. Perennially a ideology. India is susceptible to Syria, and hundreds of others Ty h at the forefront of homegrown and s the extremist snare. are on their way – any of whom ri Ha Pakistan-induced terrorism, India is / a The third trend is inter-organi- could bring IS ideology back into p d suddenly surrounded by a spurt of e/ zational competition in between India. anc

terrorist threats from al-Qaeda; the lli al-Qaeda and IS to stretch their area Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Islamic State, also known as IS, ISIS a

ure of influence and enlist the support a strategic novice, has left vital ct or ISIL; and the Haqqani network, pi of disgruntled Indian Muslims who national security issues unattended. used interchangeably as Taliban have so far been choreographed by The Modi government successfully – all groups that had historically Pakistan. So far, Indian Muslims silenced Pakistan’s October border avoided the Indian theater. have resisted the temptation to join misadventure by stretching the Three specific but complex trends Al-Qaeda’s new focus extremist groups like al-Qaeda. firing line towards civilian instal- explain the abrupt rise in threats None of the 9/11 conspirators or lations inside Pakistan-occupied from terrorists. other al-Qaeda-sponsored attack- Kashmir, with the explicit intention First, the terrorist threats in South NATO’s drawdown in Afghanistan and the rise of IS ers were traced to India. of building internal civilian pressure Asian countries are inextricably leave India vulnerable to terrorism | By Saroj Kumar Rath Similarly, no attack on India has against the Pakistan army. How- linked. If suppressed in one place, directly been linked to al-Qaeda. ever, when Pakistan clandestinely they break out in another; rogue plunged into militancy. After the increase manifold. With the rise of A second trend is the influx of In 2006, Osama bin Laden spoke sends numerous militants, India is jihadists wander from the frontlines United States invaded Afghanistan IS, there have been sporadic pro- Wahhabi preachers in India since about India and Kashmir for the defensive at best. in Kashmir to those in Afghanistan in 2001, some militant groups left test marches in urban Kashmir, 2013. They have radicalized the first time, referring to a “Zionist- Post-2015, Afghanistan will be or Iraq. In Afghanistan, 87,000 Kashmir to join Afghan jihad. where, as reported by the Srina- 7,000 registered madrassas in Hindu war against Muslims.” the launching pad of international NATO troops fighting insurgents Since 2001, some forces in the gar-based 15 Corps Commander, India, preparing these institutions However, since 2001 many Indian terrorism, a place where extrem- are withdrawing. The United States Pakistan Army tried to shift the Kashmiris have hit the streets, as potential recruitment grounds youths have been enticed to jihad ists will find safe haven. Using is leaving behind 10,000 trainers focus of terrorist groups from wielding the black IS banner. for the likes of al-Qaeda, IS and in the trenches of the Federally Afghanistan as springboard, the as per the US-Afghan Bilateral the Af-Pak region to India and Besides al-Qaeda, Haqqani and Taliban. In a classified dossier, Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) militants could restart jihad and Security Agreement. While NATO were even linked to the com- IS, India confronts threats from India’s Intelligence Bureau reported in Pakistan and in Afghanistan chaos in India. troops withdraw, after a 13-year mando-styled Mumbai attacks of Pakistani militants. A by-product that 25,000 Wahhabi scholars from where they were introduced to al- The Modi government must war, al-Qaeda, Taliban and Paki- 2008. NATO’s withdrawal from of the US presence in Afghanistan 20 countries visited eight Indian Qaeda and Taliban dogma. Before adopt a two-pronged policy. One stani associates are proclaiming Afghanistan renders a generation was significantly reduced terror- states – Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, such relationships could fully is to pre-empt and counter terrorists victories. A rising number of bold of Af-Pak jihadists jobless, and ism in India. Once this develop, bin Laden was captured by profiling existing and poten- assaults in Afghanistan signals that many fighters will turn their atten- protection is removed, and killed. tial militants, creating a dedicated the balance is tilting in favor of tion to India. India will again be Soon afterward, IS – carved out national anti-terror workforce, militants. This process has already started. exposed to terrorists Saroj Kumar Rath of al-Qaeda by disgruntled and integrating inputs from academ- As the NATO troops withdraw, The Haqqani Network, which from Pakistan and is Assistant Professor of History, impatient jihadists – started recruit- ics in policymaking and ensuring some in Pakistan would direct mili- the Pakistan Army consistently their sympathizers. Sri Aurobindo College (Eve), ing Indian Muslims. Painstakingly, fair and fast judicial scrutiny. The University of Delhi, India. tants against India. The Islamic declines to attack, is collaborating In December 2012, al-Qaeda refocused attention on other is to work on social sites by State, as J.N. Choudhury, director with the terrorist groups Lashkar- former Tehrik-e-Tal- India, opening a branch in the name checking Wahhabi indoctrination, general of India’s elite National e-Taiba (LeT) and al-Qaeda to iban Pakistan chief of Qaedat al-Jihad in September Yale Global removing Muslim ghettoization, Security Guards, warned, is the hit Indian interests in Kabul and Hakimullah Mehsud 2014. modernizing madrassa educa- latest and most lethal entrant, Kashmir. The al-Qaeda chief in demanded the Paki- Al-Qaeda chief Ayaman al tion, and supporting small-scale encouraging “multi-city multiple Pakistan, Farman Sinwari, is a stan army stop engag- Zawahiri claimed that it took entrepreneurship initiated by semi- attacks” on India. Landi Kotal resident and old Kash- ing against Afghan insurgents and Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, two years of hard work, precisely skilled illiterate Muslims along with India’s contemporary terrorist mir hand. He is an added ace for refocus on the war of revenge Kerala, Bihar, Maharashtra and after the appointment of Shinwari other Indian citizens. n threat is history repeating itself. the combined militant forces in against India. Such demands will Jharkhand. They addressed 1.2 mil- as al-Qaeda chief in Pakistan, to In 1989, Pakistan’s Inter-Services Kashmir. Since his appointment automatically be fulfilled once lion people, preaching conserva- establish Qaedat al-Jihad. India’s Reprinted with permission from Intelligence (ISI) was triumphant in 2012, militancy has escalated NATO troops vacate Afghani- tive, hard-line Islamic doctrine and National Investigation Agency YaleGlobal Online (www.yaleglobal. after its victory in Afghanistan and in Kashmir. stan. Therefore, the threat to India implementation of Sharia law in its disrupted al Jihad’s activities in yale.edu), a publication of the eager to replicate the same guerrilla If local Kashmiris lend support from motley groups of militants strictest form. Terrorist organiza- rural West Bengal in October 2014, MacMillan Center, Yale University. 2015©The Whitney and war tactics in Kashmir. India was to any of the overseas groups, the now operating in Af-Pak region tions like the Indian Mujahedeen, and classified documents indicate Betty MacMillan Center for Inter­ caught unprepared, and Kashmir terrorist threat to India would is real and looming. notorious for plying militant ide- that Indian Mujahedeen terrorists national and Area Studies at Yale. WE MAKE

SECURITYBilfinger Mauell developed and implemented the visualization systems for more than 60 control rooms at the venues for the 2014 Football World Cup in Brazil. The bundling of the various activities in a single control room optimizes staff assignment procedures and promotes direct cooperation among all decision makers. Short decision-making processes make it possible to react immediately to any incidents that occur. www.mauell.bilfinger.com WORK 2014 Terrorism & Political Violence Map

24 February 2015 25

The Security Times • Challenges ARCTIC OCEAN GREENLAND Baffin Bay Laptev Sea Beaufort Sea Kara Sea East Siberian Sea Barents Sea

Davis Strait Norwegian Sea

Alaska (US) ICELAND RUSSIA SWEDEN FINLAND

North NORWAY Hudson Bay Sea ESTONIA Morocco Bering Sea LATVIA CANADA DENMARK Sea of LITHUANIA NETHERLANDS Okhotsk Algeria UNITED IRELAND KINGDOM BELARUS Western Sahara GERMANY POLAND World BELGIUM CZECH REP UKRAINE LUXEMBOURG Mauritania SLOVAKIA KAZAKHSTAN LIECHTENSTEIN AUSTRIA Mali FRANCE HUNGARY MOLDOVA Haiti MONGOLIA Senegal SWITZERLAND SLOVENIA ROMANIA Honduras C ITALY a s CROATIA BOSNIA SERBIA p i Black a Gambia MONACO n Burkina Faso SAN MARINO BULGARIA S Danger Sea e MONTENEGRO GEORGIA a ANDORRA VATICAN UZBEKISTAN KYRGYZSTAN Guinea Bissau PORTUGAL UNITED STATES Guinea ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN Venezuela ALBANIA SPAIN F.Y.R. MACEDONIA TURKMENISTAN NORTH KOREA O F A M E R I C A TURKEY Sierra Leone KOSOVO TAJIKISTAN

Colombia Liberia Togo M GREECE SOUTH KOREA Gibraltar (UK) e SYRIA JAPAN Ceuta (Sp) d MALTA it CYPRUS CHINA Spots Ivory Coast Ghana Melilla (Sp) er LEBANON IRAN Se ra AFGHANISTAN TUNISIA a ne PALESTINIAN IRAQ Ecuador Bermuda (UK) a TERRITORIES MOROCCO n Equatorial Guinea ISRAEL JORDAN Map methodology KEY TO SYMBOLS KUWAIT PAKISTAN Congo-Brazzaville ALGERIA T East h NEPAL e LIBYA China G BHUTAN The color-coded rating of BAHRAIN u Country risk level ATLANTIC OCEAN Western Sahara EGYPT lf Sea GulfBrazil of Mexico (Morocco) QATAR each country and territory MEXICO BAHAMAS Negligible High Peru INDIA BANGLADESH SAUDI ARABIA UAE TAIWAN PACIFIC OCEAN represents the level of the CUBA OMAN BURMA HONG KONG Cayman PUERTO RICO (US) Low Islands (UK) HAITI (MYANMAR) MACAU risk or threat. The scoresHawaiian are Severe R Islands (USA) Bolivia e BELIZE d LAOS DOMINICAN REP MAURITANIA MALI S retrospective and based upon JAMAICA VIRGIN ISLANDS (US) e Arabian Sea a GUAM Medium Line of Control ST. KITTS ANTIGUA & BARBUDA NIGER SUDAN & YEMEN THAILAND data collected by Terrorism ERITREA n GUATEMALA NEVIS Guadeloupe (Fr) e Paraguay HONDURAS CAPE VERDE DOMINICA SENEGAL CHAD Ad Symbols illustrating significant perils Caribbean ANGUILLA ST. LUCIA f South Tracker and WorldAware as Netherlands o PHILIPPINES MICRONESIA EL SALVADOR NICARAGUA Sea Antilles (NL) ST. VINCENT BARBADOS BURKINA lf CAMBODIA GAMBIA G u China GRENADA FASO Bay of Bengal well as judgments by a panel DJIBOUTI Sea Terrorism and Sabotage GUINEA BISSAU GUINEA VIETNAM TRINIDAD & TOBAGO BENIN COSTA RICA of experts. Argentina NIGERIA SOMALIA PANAMA VENEZUELA COTE D'IVOIRE Strikes, Riots, Civil Commotion and ETHIOPIA SIERRA LEONE CENTRAL SOUTH SRI LANKA KIRIBATI GUYANA GHANA PALAU Malicious Damage AFRICAN REPUBLIC SUDAN MALDIVES LIBERIA CAMEROON FRENCH GUIANA (FR) BRUNEI Insurrection, Revolution, Rebellion, SURINAME MALAYSIA Chile COLOMBIA TOGO NAURU Mutiny, Coup d'Etat, Civil War and War UGANDA INDIAN OCEAN Source: AON/Risk Advisory Group EQ GUINEA KENYA SAO TOME & PRINCIPE SINGAPORE GABON ECUADOR DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF CONGO RWANDA Map methodology CONGO BRAZZAVILLE SEYCHELLES BURUNDI PAPUA NEW CABINDA (Angola) GUINEA The color-coded rating of each country and territory represents the level of the risk or threat (i.e. the TANZANIA INDONESIA by the State of Israel by about a not stop various kinds of missiles Precisely because BRAZIL a major war PERU SOLOMON ISLANDS and based upon data collected by Terrorism Tracker and WorldAware as well as judgments by a panelmillion of and a half. True, since then coming from inside the Bank from does not appear to be on the cards, experts. They are not intended to predict global events or future threats. Ascension Island (UK) EAST TIMOR the border area between Israel and reaching Israeli territory. Let alone the one way towards a possible TUVALU the Strip has hardly seen much MALAWI COMOROS NeitherThe peril icons represent the forms of political war violence most likely to be encountered by businesses. those coming from outside such solution is to help Israel along by ANGOLA Timor SAMOA FRENCH peace. It would be much better territory. Second, both geogra- bringing pressure to bear form out- Sea POLYNESIA for all parties if Hamas provided phy and the military balance put side. A precedent exists in the form ZAMBIA PACIFIC OCEAN VANUATU FIJI NIUE (NZ) credible guarantees to stop military the area in question totally at the ofBOLIVIA the Camp David Accords. In Tahiti St. Helena (UK) “resistance,” also known as terror- mercy of the Israeli Army. Should late 1978 it looked as if the nego- MOZAMBIQUE TONGA nor peace

ism, against Israel once for all. And there be a withdrawal, the latter tiations with Egypt, which had ZIMBABWE MAURITIUS if, in return, the Israeli “siege” of will always be able to reoccupy it been going on for about a year, MADAGASCAR Between Israel and the Palestinians:Aon's TPV insurance products NAMIBIA the Strip would be lifted and Gaza at a moment’s notice. were about to suffer a catastrophic BOTSWANA Reunion Islands (Fr) armed gridlockThe peril icons forever? relate closely to Aon’s | terrorism By Martin and political violence van insurance Creveld products, which cover a spectrum of political violence risks on a cumulative basis. PARAGUAY New Caledonia (Fr) allowed to develop as it can and As many of its own citizens breakdown. At that point Israel’s Percentage Of Attacks on Businesses by Sector Terrorism & Sabotage Strikes, Riots, Civil Commotionshould. Insurrection, Revolution, Rebellion,have been saying for years, demo- then minister of defense, retired ATLANTIC OCEAN and Malicious Damage For that toMutiny, happen Coup Hamas d'Etat, would Civil War andgraphic, War social and political devel- general and war hero Moshe AUSTRALIA Utilities, 2% ust over a century has passed by the State of Israel, and those ing IS, it does not appear as if the have to recognize Israel, while Israel opments are a much more serious Dayan, suggested bringing in the Mining, 2% AonT-12 AonPV-12 AonSRCC-12 SWAZILAND since the first Zionist settlers who are. latter will succeed in realizing its would have to agree to negotiate Americans. As Presi- SOUTH Financial, 3% arrived in what, following Appearances notwithstanding, objective: to set up a caliphate, and with Hamas. In the absence of such dent Jimmy Carter AFRICA Terrorism LESOTHO Agriculture, 3% Biblical precedent, they Israel has always got along fairly march on Jerusalem. One state, recognition and such negotiations, Martin van Creveld is a enteredURUGUAY the fray, his Gas, 5% J called the Land of Israel. In all well with the former group. To be Egypt, is busy trying to solve its military historian who holds additional skirmishes like those presence forced Prime Tasman degrees from the Hebrew University Retail*, 33% that period hardly a single SabotageArab sure, there have been some wars. internal problems in close coopera- that took place in the summer of of Jerusalem and the London CHILE ARGENTINA Minister Menachem Tourism, 5% Sea anywhere in the Middle East has However, without exception they tion with Israel. And one, Jordan, 2014 cannot be excluded. They School of Economics. Begin to accept a com- been ready to accept IsraelStrikes as a and/orended Riots inand/ Israeli victories. Some has long become an Israeli pro- may, in fact, be inevitable. Yet it In 1971 he joined the faculty plete withdrawal from or Civil Commotion of the Hebrew University where NEW ZEALAND fait accompli – in other words,'SRCC' to were small, others very great. tectorate. Following the so-called remains true that Hamas is scarcely he is now professor emeritus. the Sinai. Next, Begin Media, 5% acquiesce to a permanent Jewish That alone explains why fully 41 Second Lebanon War of 2006 even in a position to start a major war, used the American private state in their midst. Malicious Damageyears have passed since any Arab Hezbollah seems to have learnt its let alone defeat Israel. pressure to justify his Shlomo Avineri, one-time State, or combination of states, lesson. Skirmishes are always pos- To turn, now, to the Palestinians decision to his fellow Co nstruction, 6% director-general of the Israel has last tried to launch another sible, especially with Hezbollah. on the West Bank. Depending on Israeli right-wingers. Insurrection, Revolution ministry of foreign affairs,and Rebellion major war aimed at putting an end However, they are far from present- whom one believes, they number threat to Israel than the military The rest is history. Electricity, 6% redoubtable political scientist, to the Zionist enterprise. ing a serious danger to Israel, at anywhere between a million and one. Not to put too fine a point It is, however, necessary to and a former teacher of Mutiny mine and/orOf Coup the Arab states that used to least not in the foreseeable future. a half and two and a half million. on it, the occupation of the West issue a warning. Notwithstand- d’Etat Falkland has offered a useful perspective fight Israel two, Syria and Iraq, are Back in 2005, Israel’s late Prime Unlike their brethren in the neigh- Bank is turning Israel into a mon- ing the illusionsIslands (UK) of starry-eyed Transport*, 18% Oil,Oil, 12% on the Arab stance. The way he at risk of collapsing. With the US, Minister Ariel Sharon courageously boring states and the Gaza Strip, ster. One that, lacking moral jus- idealists inside and outside Israel, sees it, the Arabs of the MiddleWar and/or several Civil War NATO countries, President decided to withdraw from the these people live in territory that, tification, is bound to end by col- not even a peace agreement with *Retail includes public spaces such as markets. *Transport includes attacks on land, maritime and aviation. East can be divided into two Bashar al-Assad of Syria, Iran, and Gaza Strip. He thereby reduced in one way or another, is occu- lapsing under its own weight just both HamasScotia and Sea the Palestinian Source: Terrorism Tracker (www.terrorismtracker.com), a comprehensive global database of terrorist attacks and plots. SOUTHERN OCEAN groups: those who are not ruled various Iraqi Shiite militias all fight- the number of Arabs who are ruled pied by Israel. This occupation is as many other historical regimes Authority, followed by a complete one that even the most moderate have. Especially if, as seems to be a Israeli withdrawal from the West hu

n among them are determined to happening in recent years, Israel’s Bank, is going to end the Palestin-

go/Xi throw off by one means or another. own million and a half Arab citi- ians’ hope of one day doing away ma i The more so because, as time goes zens become radicalized and join with Israel and recovering their on, more and more of their land is in the struggle. And especially if, lost land. As one Palestinian dip- Aon’s approach to adjust the needs of its clients in the areasbeing takenof terrorism away by Jewish settlersand politicalas seems to beviolence happening in riskrecent managementlomat put it to me: “Why combines should threat assessment, impact analysis About The Risk Advisory Group plc whom the changing governments in months, Jewish extremists start we give up our rights?” They will Risk Advisory is a leading independent global risk management consultancy. Risk Advisory provides intelligence, investigation and crisis management consulting with individually structuredJerusalem seem insurance to be either unable programs fighting to both ensure Arabs and you Jewish have enjoy the the more most or less appropriate active sup- solution in place. or unwilling to rein in. moderates, leading to a war of all port of some 200 million Arabs For further information, please speak to your Aon contactAs or the visitrepeated www.aon.com/terrorismmap. failure of their against all. who never have lived, and do not uprisings (intifadas, in Arabic, The difficulty is that, unlike Ger- now live, under Israeli rule. Not © Copyright Aon plc. 2014. All rights reserved. means “a shaking-off) shows, many, Israel has a system of undi- to mention 77 million Iranians militarily the Palestinians stand luted proportional elections. It puts whose government, which does no chance against Israel’s army too much power into the hands not exactly look favorably on and security services. Yet it is of a bewildering array of ever- Israel, may soon obtain nuclear not true, as has so often been changing small parties. So far those weapons. claimed, that the West Bank is parties have succeeded in blocking Thus the conditio sine qua non essential for Israel’s defense. First, any attempt to come to grips with for any kind of withdrawal and as the example of Gaza before the problem. One prime minister, any kind of peace is an Israel 2005 shows, the occupation will Yitzhak Rabin, paid with his life sufficiently strong to defend itself for trying to do so. Another, Ariel against all comers. “An Iron No hope for a common future? Sharon came under such vehement Wall,” as right-wing Zionist leader A Palestinian protester throws attack from his own people that Ze’ev Jabotinksy called it as far stones at Israeli soldiers during a protest against the expansion he suffered a stroke from which back as 1923. of Jewish settlements in the Kufr he never recovered. Nor are there Or else, chaos in the Middle Qadoom village near Nablus, any signs that things are about to East is certain to spread even on Jan. 9, 2015. change. more than it already has. n 24 February 2015 25

The Security Times • Challenges Russia

Ukraine Kazakhstan Bosnia Moldova Georgia Azerbaijan Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Kosovo Armenia Turkey North Korea Turkmenistan Tajikistan Syria South Korea Tunisia Israel, Lebanon, Japan Palestinian Ter. Iran Afghanistan China Iraq Jordan Kuwait Pakistan Nepal Algeria Libya Egypt Bahrain Qatar UAE India Saudi Arabia Bangladesh Taiwan Oman

Mali Niger Chad Burma Sudan Thailand Eritrea Yemen Philippines Burkina Faso Cambodia Vietnam Nigeria Djibouti Somalia CAR Ethiopia South Sudan Sri Lanka Cameroon Togo Malaysa Benin Ghana Uganda Kenya Gabon DR Congo Equatorial Guinea Congo-Brazzaville Burundi Indonesia Tanzania Papua New Guinea

Angola Malawi Zambia Mozambique

Zimbabwe Madagascar

Swaziland

South Africa Lesotho

n Jan. 22, 2015, ness to agree to a federal solu- the UN-supported tion, a radicalization of Hirak Yemeni President becomes ever more likely. Only Abdu Rabu Man- Stalemate in Yemen through a genuine inclusion of sourO Hadi and his technocratic the Hirak and other southern government resigned suddenly President Hadi’s resignation was the only chance to preserve leaders in the political process amid Houthi pressure to make in Sanaa, can the radicalization changes to the draft constitution democratic gains – but risks fragmenting the country | By Mareike Transfeld of Hirak the fragmentation of published days earler. The Shiite the south and the risk posed by Houthis, an armed movement But their rise to power was also 21, 2014. The agreement was political institutions and adhere movement and tribes exist next AQAP be effectively countered. from northern Yemen, rejected the consequence of the Houthi’s supposed to put an end to the to the agreements reached in the to an ever-stronger al-Qaeda on Although it is a major power a central aspect of the draft: uncompromising attitude in the Houthi’s violent campaign, but transitional period, which would the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), broker in Yemen’s transition, the division of the country into face of the state’s weakness. Time in reality it gave the Houthis a also entail coming to terms with which gains strength due to the the international community has six federal regions. The govern- and again, the Houthis engaged legitimate cover for their unilat- the federal structure of the future Houthi’s incursion. The lines little influence on these devel- ment’s forced resignation dem- in negotiations with the govern- eral drive to control the state. Yemeni state. Or the Houthis between the tribes and AQAP opments. This became particu- onstrates not only the powerless- ment and agreed to can unilaterally grab power by become increasingly blurry, as larly clear after the UN Security ness of the political leadership deals brokered by the forming a presidential council. both are violently engaging the Council issued sanctions against Mareike Transfeld in the capital, it also marks the UN. Paying lip service is a research fellow But they would then be held Houthis and are trying to put former President Ali Abdullah breakdown of the transitional only to those agree- in the Middle East accountable by the public and an end to the group’s military Saleh and two Houthi leaders for process as outlined by the Gulf ments, the movement and Africa Division risk losing the legitimacy they expansion in the south. obstructing the implementation Cooperation Council (GCC) ini- at the German Institute repeatedly showed for International have in the population. The fear that the Houthi’s grab of the GCC initiative. The sanc- tiative. that it was not will- and Security Affairs. Since the Houthi’s rise to of power will make the estab- tions had no positive impact on With the most recent escalation ing to compromise or She specializes power, opposition against the lishment of federal regions in the political situation in Sanaa, of violence on Jan. 19, 2015, the agree to a power shar- in Yemeni politics. movement came particularly from the south impossible led to a with both Saleh and the Houthis swp Houthis pushed President Hadi ing arrangement. central and southern Yemen. In wave of Hirak leaders declaring continuing to influence the tran- into a dead end. Had the presi- After Houthi fight- contrast to the Houthis, who independence in the wake of sitional process negatively. dent given in to the pressure and ers violently took over adhere to the Zaydi tradition of Hadi’s resignation. This could The little influence the interna- changed the constitution, all the control of Sanaa, the govern- The Houthis are now in a posi- Shia Islam, in these regions the be the beginning not just of tional community has is restricted gains of the transitional period ment and Houthi representatives tion where they must show their majority of the population fol- division, but of a fragmentation to its ability to legitimize actors would have been lost. Remain- signed the National Peace and true face. They can either work lows the Shafi’i school of Sunni of Yemen. Given the Houthi’s through recognition. The inter- ing in office while not giving in Partnership agreement on Sept. within the framework of the Islam. The fragmented Hirak aggression and their unwilling- national community should not to the pressure would have led accept any unilateral steps taken to more violence. Resignation by the Houthis, and should insist was Hadi’s only option to keep on an inclusive process and the the last flicker of legitimacy he Fractured land validity of political agreements. had by preventing the Houthis Only political unity in Sanaa will from violently imposing their enable the Yemeni state to effec- demands. oman tively tackle political reforms and That the Houthis were in a posi- S audi A rabia the security situation. tion to exert this kind of pressure International military interven- on the government was on the tions will only be counterproduc- one hand due to the weaknesses Sa'Dah tive in this volatile environment, inherent to the GCC initiative. YEMEN as it is impossible for foreign After having been excluded from Al Ghaydah forces to remain neutral in this the negotiations of the GCC ini- complex network of actors and tiative and the unity government interests. There is a risk of disen- formed in December 2011, the Sana'a franchising supporters of the UN- National Dialogue Conference supported transitional roadmap. (NDC) was the first instance the Moderate Shafi’is who see them- Houthis had to contribute to the selves stuck between Houthis and transition. While there was a gen- Al Mukhalla AQAP find it hard to perceive eral agreement by the end of the Controlled by Houthis the international community, but conference in January 2014 that particularly the US, as a genuine the future state should be federal, Controlled by opponents partner in the transition. a final consensus failed regarding of Houthis (tribes/Hirak) For that reason, AQAP benefits the number of federal regions the Ta'izz immediately from foreign military country should be divided into. Controlled by Al-Qaeda intervention, particularly the US Since then the Houthis have vio- Aden and Ansar al-Sharia drone campaign. AQAP not only lently expanded their territorial uses the high number of civil- control in northern Yemen and Deserted ian casualties, but also American established themselves as de facto interference to mobilize support rulers in Yemen’s capital. and recruit fighters. n The Security Times • Challenges

26 February 2015

t would not have needed The most obvious point is the the MiddleThe East. Security The West finds Times movie. • Challenges It is hard to under- either by directly supporting the recent stir around the nuclear issue. It is shocking to see it hard enough to deal with a stand why this necessitated it, or by not doing enough hacking of Sony Pictures to that an underdeveloped country conventionally armed al-Qaeda a personal reaction from to stop it. Yet China’s actual remind the world that things like North Korea has been able or ISIS; add nuclear weapons to influence over North Korea is Iare far from quiet on the Korean to develop such weapons. If they this asymmetrical warfare, and what it very limited, not least by its own peninsula. Ever since the Korean can do it – and get away with the prospects become frightening. calls nor- strategic interests. War, Korea has been one of the it – who will be next? Among The US reac- malization, Chinese frustration over North world’s main security flashpoints. the candidates on an alarmingly tion to the adding indepen- Korea is as old as their bilat- The role of the villain in this long list are two of the world’s Sony hack dent and offensive eral relationship. Only in recent game, and in a growing number of most developed economies, South military capabili- years selected Chinese officials Hollywood movies and computer Korea and Japan. Given the recent ties to its exercise have begun to be openly critical games, is assigned to the Demo- nationalist trend in East Asian of national sover- of Pyongyang. But this is a shift cratic People’s Republic of Korea foreign policy, a nuclear North eignty. in PR, not in actual policy, since and its leaders. Korea could serve as the per- Almost everybody Beijing’s interests have remained The West in general terms, fect excuse for these two wins. The US can the same. Meanwhile, China’s and in a more narrow sense the countries to follow maintain its presence main regional adversary, Russia, US, Japan, and South Korea, suit. The result in the region, Japan is rapidly improving its relations approach North Korea as a rogue would be a can justify its remili- with Pyongyang. This adds stra- state. Pyongyang’s actions are tarization. North tegic weight to North Korea and routinely interpreted as provo- Korea enjoys top inter- makes Beijing’s position even cations and are met with the national attention and is able to more complicated. harshest response, including Kim Jong-un’s convert this political capital into In light of all this, it seems that UN resolutions and eco- economic gains. The big loser in Washington could be more than nomic sanctions. The this game is Beijing. happy with North Korea as it is. North is upset about none less A remarkably underreported Not everyone seems to subscribe what it perceives rogue state than the possibility is that one of the main to such an analysis, however. as an inadmissible president of goals of Pyongyang’s nuclear In a Washington Post op-ed of infringement on its the United States. program is to hedge against too Dec. 23, 2014 about the Sony national sovereignty. America could actually Obviously, the fact that a much Chinese influence. For Pictures hack, Richard N. Haass, America, South Korea be more than happy country with which the US is obvious reasons, North Korea the president of the Council on and Japan are portrayed as still technically at war is working would never admit that openly; Foreign Relations, wrote: “Only North Korea’s sworn enemies, with North Korea as it is on the development of nuclear the American threat is used as one approach is commensurate intent on toppling the current weapons weighs heavily in this a welcome proxy. But a look with the challenge: ending North regime and imposing their own By Rüdiger Frank context. But the most important at the facts reveals that the big- Korea’s existence as an indepen- political and economic systems. reason for the disproportion- gest challenge for North Korean dent entity and reunifying the This process has been going on ate attention directed towards sovereignty is indeed China. It is Korean Peninsula.” for decades. It is regrettable and North Korea is its geostrate- an immediate neigh- risky, but has in a way become gic location. Cold War bor, overwhelmingly Rüdiger Frank is Professor business as usual. Each year, 2.0 is approaching strong in every aspect, of East Asian Economy and Society huge joint military exercises are fast in Asia, and a huge ideological at the University of Vienna. He undertaken by the US and South the main adver- challenge, and has spent one semester as a language student at Kim Il Sung University Korea, and North Korea protests saries will be for decades shown in Pyongyang in 1991 and has loudly. Every few years since China and the a direct interest in been studying North Korea since. 2006, North Korea tests a United States. North Korean affairs. In September 2014, he published a nuclear device or a bal- North Korea All factional fights in new book on North Korea. private listic missile, and the West serves as a welcome excuse Pyongyang that we ALIMDI.NET/ reacts with condemnation Tom Schneider strikes one as for China’s rivals to be active in its know of involved a and more sanctions. Occa- somewhat out backyard. Pointing at the North pro-Chinese faction. sionally, we see variations, such of proportion. Korean threat, the US maintains Not least, most dangerous out- Let’s keep our fingers crossed as the recent US focus on human After all, regardless of the presence of troops and signifi- side information that reaches that Obama is considerate enough rights or North Korea’s threats whether North Korea cant hardware on the Korean pen- North Korea does so through not to provoke China this way, to turn Seoul into a sea of fire global chain reaction that would was actually involved, what has insula, more than 60 years after China. unless he is ready to accept that or to launch a nuclear attack on shake the world’s security archi- actually happened? A private cor- the end of the Korean War. Point- The irony is that one of the a unified Korea will come under Guam. tecture to its grounds. poration has become the victim of ing at North Korea, Tokyo has most remarkable successes of US Beijing’s dominance, with the US However, beyond this ques- Apprehensions of nuclear pro- a hacking attack. A few movies buried its decades-old Yoshida foreign policy in the region has pulling back to Japan, where few tionable normality, there are a liferation are nourished by the and emails were leaked, further doctrine, according to which been to make everybody believe people are looking forward to few noticeable aspects that have fact that North Korea has a long cyberattacks were announced in defense of the Japanese islands is that North Korea is a Chinese being on the frontline of an inten- broader implications far beyond record of arms deals with coun- case of non-compliance with the taken care of by the United States, client state, and that Beijing is sifying confrontation between the Korean peninsula. tries in the Third World, including demand to withdraw a rather silly and embarked on a path toward responsible for its behavior – two global giants. n

A PRECISE SITUATION PICTURE. www.plathgroup.com

Being fully informed? It is essential to manage different means of communication and data formats as well as increasing data volumes. System solutions for communications intelligence provided by PLATH aggregate the information to build up a precise overall situation picture, enabling you to identify any threat as early and as comprehensively as possible. Seamless and close to real-time.

www.plathgroup.com · www.plath.de

Anzeige_The Security Times_ZentraleE_Newspaper Profil_v2.indd 1 29.01.2015 11:47:16 The Security Times • Challenges

February 2015 27

he talks resumed in mid- The Security Times • Challenges their rights under the treaty on January. Tehran’s For- the non-proliferation of nuclear eign Minister Moham- weapons. Ultimately, it is a matter mad Javad Zarif has met Wanted: Heroic flexibility of trust. And that is lacking on twiceT with US Secretary of State both sides. John Kerry for negotiations on What Western opponents of any Iran’s nuclear program and vis- Mistrust dominates talks on Iran’s nuclear program. Hardliners in Washington compromise must bear in mind ited his counterparts Frank-Walter and in Tehran are seeking to block any compromise | By Matthias Nass is that even the Iranian President Steinmeier in Berlin and Laurent Hassan Ruhani has to deal with Fabius in Paris. hardliners at home, amongst the In the following days, top diplo- clerics and among the top brass of mats from Washington, Moscow, the Revolutionary Guard. Above Beijing, London, Paris and Berlin all, he must overcome the skepti- (P5+1) met with the Iranian deputy cism of the supreme spiritual leader foreign minister in Geneva. Time is Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Khame- short. A political framework deal nei has, however, backed the presi- has to be agreed by early March; a dent, at least verbally, saying that final document is to be drafted by “heroic flexibility” was sometimes July 1, 2015. required in talks with the enemy. Negotiations have already been Some in Tehran are saying that extended twice. There is a deep Ruhani will have to achieve an divide between the demands for easing of the sanctions soon – or Iran to drastically cut back its jeopardize his entire reform pro- nuclear enrichment facilities and gram – and that otherwise he will Iran’s counter-demand for the lift- soon lose the backing of the moder- ing of sanctions against it. There- ate forces currently supporting him. fore it seems unlikely that the new Ruhani reiterated his determina- round of talks will bring about any tion for reform early this year in agreement on the Iranian nuclear a speech to 1,500 business leaders Time is short to program. But the attempt has to g and other professionals. He said n be made. agree a political their could be no sustainable devel- Wilki

k framework deal: US c For failure could mean the start i

R opment for Iran “as long as we

o/ Secretary of State John of a nuclear arms race in the t remain in isolation.” The sanctions ho

P Kerry, left, waits with

Mideast. The remarkable show P have to go. Faced with resistance

e/A Iranian Foreign Minister

of diplomatic unity by the five anc Mohammad Javad Zarif from his conservative opponents, lli nations with a Security Council a before a meeting in Geneva, Ruhani has even threatened to

ure Switzerland, Jan. 14, 2015. veto and Germany – in which ct hold a referendum on his eco- pi the Western countries cooperate nomic policies and his actions in constructively with Russia and of a timetable should sanctions be accept Iran having any centrifuges poised to announce her bid to be already has. This period is currently the nuclear debate. That would China – would crumble. And lifted in return? at all and are aiming to step up the the next Democratic presidential estimated to be two months. The be a spectacular trial of strength, any chance for joint action with Prospects for agreement are grim. pressure on Iran using even more candidate. In contrast to Obama, talks aim to stretch that to at least the like of which Iran has not seen Iran against the terrorism of the Both in Washington and in Tehran sanctions. she believes any agreement must a year – and the controls are to since the 1979 revolution. “Islamic State” in Syria and Iraq – the political environment has Senator Bob Corker, chairman of include the dismantling of all Iran’s be refined to the point when the It almost seems as if the talks are disappear. grown harsher. Since the midterm the Foreign Relations Committee, roughly 19,000 centrifuges. attempt to reach a breakout could more likely to fail due to differ- Those are the overarching secu- has announced legisla- That corresponds to the demand be recognized in time. ences within the Iranian leadership rity policy concerns which are at tion on the matter will by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin That still leaves the threat of and between the White House and stake. In essence, the negotiations be ready “late Janu- Netanyahu. “It is better not to a sneakout – the undiscovered Congress than the disagreement still center on the question of how Matthias Nass is ary, early February.” have an agreement with Iran than construction of a bomb with fis- between the negotiating parties international correspondent to stop Iran from building nuclear for the German weekly Obama fears that piling to have an agreement that will sile material from hidden Iranian themselves. But both presidents are weapons – without taking away Die Zeit. on more sanctions will jeopardize Israel, the Middle East, nuclear facilities. Israel is convinced determined to fight for a successful the country’s right to use nuclear torpedo the talks with and humanity,“ was his comment that Iran is more than capable of outcome. For Ruhani, it’s all about energy for peaceful purposes? Iran and has already on the failure of the latest round of wriggling out of its contractual the modernization of Iran. For That is where it gets difficult. w. bartsch threatened to veto any talks in Vienna in November 2014. obligations. Obama, it could be a highlight of How much uranium can Iran be such bill. Netanyahu says zero centrifuges is That means that any agree- his political legacy. allowed to enrich? How many cen- But those against any the only acceptable solution. He ment will have to be absolutely Much is at stake. In the Mid- trifuges can it be allowed to have? elections, President Barack Obama compromise with Tehran are not therefore sees no reason to simply watertight as far as controls go. east, it is nothing less than the How long will it remain subject faces a Republican majority in all in the opposition – some of them extend the period for a breakout – Yet comprehensive surveillance prevention of a nuclear arms race. to checks on its nuclear facilities? both houses of Congress. Leading are in Obama’s own party. Among the time Iran would need to build is hardly compatible with Iran’s “Heroic flexibility is certainly How quickly and on what kind Republicans are not prepared to them is Hillary Clinton, who is a bomb with the fissile material it national pride; Iranians insist on needed – on all sides. n

Missile Defense Electronic Warfare Cyber C4ISR Precision Weapons Training

MISSION: A WORLD OF INNOVATION FOR OVER 90 YEARS, RAYTHEON HAS ENABLED COUNTLESS MISSIONS BY REMAINING COMMITTED TO A SINGLE ONE: CUSTOMER SUCCESS. FROM THE DEPTHS OF THE OCEAN TO THE FARTHEST REACHES OF SPACE, FROM REMOTE BATTLEFIELDS TO THE VIRTUAL REALMS OF CYBERSPACE, RAYTHEON TECHNOLOGIES ARE DEPLOYED IN MORE THAN 80 COUNTRIES TO DELIVER INNOVATION IN ALL DOMAINS.

“Blue Marble” image of Earth captured by Raytheon’s Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite.

Raytheon.com Connect with us:

© 2015 Raytheon Company. All rights reserved. “Customer Success Is Our Mission” is a registered trademark of Raytheon Company. 28 February 2015

igeria, the power- The Security Times • Challenges Nigeria goes to the polls in a house of Africa, is few weeks. If a new government in trouble. In the could be formed which would middle of last year, Beating Boko Haram truly represent the interests of all theN Nigerian economy passed Nigerians regardless of religious those of South Africa and Egypt. and ethnic background, this could At almost the same time, attacks Military action alone cannot defeat the Islamist group. reawaken some trust in the state by the jihadist organization Boko Northeast Nigeria needs a share of the South’s wealth | By Annette Weber – even in the northeast. Haram took on previously unseen A few steps have been taken dimensions. In recent years more in the right direction. President than 10,000 people have been Johnathan has chosen a Muslim killed in northern Nigeria – Boko Haram N iger: caught between civil war in Chad: border with Nigeria from the north as his running Christians and Muslims, most of (“Western education is forbidden.”) Libya and Boko Haram’s campaign de facto closed since 2009 mate, and his challenger Muh- them civilians but also soldiers, of terror in Nigeria. Used as a recru- due to Boko Haram vio- hamadu Buhari has picked a Islamist terrorNiamey movement responsible policemen and politicians. More itingNIG grounde r by Boko Haram. lence. Trade at a standstill Christian from the south to be than 1.5 million people have been for 7,700 deaths and one million Lake his potential vice-president. displaced. displaced people in 2014 Baga Chad A more comprehensive Boko Haram controls vast Monguno approach will have to include a tracts of the three Nigerian more just distribution of wealth, regions bordering Cameroon, Majority Maiduguri and improved opportunities for Chad and Niger. Since Decem- Muslim education, work, and devel- ber 2014 the group has also been Damaturu Bama opment. Boko Haram makes attacking barracks and villages NIG e r I A money primarily by extorting in the neighboring regions. The Kaduna Territory ransom payments, but it also town of Baga on Lake Chad BENIN Bauchi controlled by supports itself by armed rob- was attacked by Boko Haram Boko Haram bery, slavery and through fund- militias on Jan. 3, and – as satel- ing from al-Qaeda. Allegedly lite images show – razed to the corruption in the military and ground. political clientele structures in Boko Haram’s declared aim is Abuja Nigeria are another source of to establish a caliphate and to funding for the group. punish or annihilate unbelievers. Development aid needs to find In a video message, the move- viable alternatives to nourish- ment’s spokesman declared its ing organized crime; security dedication to global jihad and initiatives have to be created to Majority support for the “Islamic State.” C a m e r o o n prevent kidnappings and smug- Boko Haram sees itself as the Christian gling. Religious education and ruling power in the areas it con- C ameroon: In late December, 1,000 Boko reconciliation initiatives would trols, in which it aims to found Porto- Haram fighters attack a military base in Achi- also contribute to making social a theocracy. Since the violent Novo gachia, Eight soldiers killed. Cameroonian air structures stronger. death of Mohamad Yussuf in force uses airstrikes to repel attack. Nigeria has recently headed 2009, the movement’s leader has Atlantic military initiatives by the regional been Abubakar Shekau. Mean- Ocean organization Economic Com- while, it has grown by up to munity of West Africa States 10,000 members. (ECOWAS) and is the foremost There are several reasons for Niger Delta Yaoundé provider of troops to the United that increase. Northern Nige- Nations’ peace missions in Africa. rians feel neglected by the 100 km It is not an option to allow Afri- southern-based government of map: fotolia.de/Peter Hermes Furian ca’s most populous and economi- Nigerian president Goodluck cally strong nation to fail because Jonathan; they complain of tics and traditional social models One of Boko Haram’s last than one million displaced people Most recently, they were deployed of Boko Haram – it would be bad political corruption, and collu- in one fell swoop. major attacks was on the town should be reason enough. in northern Mali. Regional leaders for Nigerians, for their African sion between criminal networks The supposed enemy is in plain of Baga, site of the headquar- Chad has sent troops to Nige- do not want to make the same mis- neighbors and for the interna- and the regional political elites. view, and in the battle to create ters of the Multi-National Joint ria and Cameroon – an indica- takes that led to long-lasting insta- tional community. Pledges of modernization remain their Islamic state the jihadists Task Force (MNJTF), made up tion that awareness of the urgent bility there. Half the Nigerian army The region is within the sphere unfulfilled, and young people in will stop at nothing. They do not of troops from Nigeria, Chad need for stabilization mission has has now reportedly been deployed of influence of jihadist groups particular see no prospects for even shrink from the murder or and Niger. Founded in 1994, risen in the region. Currently, to the northeast. However, that in northern Mali, the Sahel and the future. A narcissistic culture kidnapping of children – such as the force was meant to fight ter- several thousand Chadian troops did not deter Boko Haram from Libya, and it is not too far away of violence makes heroes of those the nearly 300 schoolgirls from rorism. In a video released after are active in Nigeria, more than launching an assault on Maidu- from conflicts in Darfur and Cen- who fight for the one and only Chibok – or the use of children the attack, Abubakar Shekau 1,000 in the area of Baga and guri, the capital of Borno state on tral Africa. All this makes Boko truth. as suicide bombers. and his supporters showed off Lake Chad, 2,500 in Cameroon. Jan. 24. Meanwhile the president Haram an enormous threat. It is true that a region’s afflu- So far, the political elite in the a large arsenal of weapons and Some Chadian special forces are of Ghana has called for interven- It would make sense to launch ence depends first and foremost capital has failed miserably to ammunition supposedly taken US-trained and experienced in tion by African Union forces. a regional or African Union mis- on its personal links with the deal with Boko Haram terrorism. in the attack on the MNJTF fighting jihadist organizations in But while a coordinated deploy- sion. It could include equipment capital Abuja. While the coun- The government seems to be wait- barracks. the Sahel. ment of regional forces is needed and expertise from the interna- try’s leaders during the military ing in the hope the problem will That highlights a in response to the direct threat tional community (including Ger- dictatorships up into the 1990s simply go away. The inability, the fundamental problem. and expansion of Boko Haram, many). Yet a military victory over mostly came from the Muslim apparent disinterest of politicians The military has not this must be just one part of a Boko Haram alone will not solve north, today the political power in Abuja has made fear and panic failed to protect the Annette Weber wider strategy to solve the prob- the problems. To get at the root and with it access to resources in the northeast turn to fury. It people in northeastern is a senior associate lem. Politicians in the northeast of the problem, a comprehensive at the Middle East lies in the hands of Christians took international campaigns such Nigeria due to a lack and Africa Division, will have to be better integrated new approach is needed to tackle in the south. Widespread anger as #bringbackourgirls to get Presi- of weapons. The fail- German Institute for International into national politics. the long neglect of northern Nige- and powerlessness in the north- dent Jonathan to call the crime by ure lies in the army’s and Security Affairs (SWP). Also needed are economic stim- ria. Inclusion at all levels − politi- east – and above all, mistrust of its name – months after the Chibok lack of interest in ulus programs and a fairer redis- cal, economical and social. This is the south – boosts the jihadist schoolgirls were abducted – and to pursuing its mission, Marc Darchinger tribution of public assets. Just as the only way to keep the country mobilization, which promises to recognize that the girls’ parents are when the humani- important is a religious alternative together and to restore social overcome the failure of both poli- not enemies but victims. tarian crisis of more to jihadist radicalism. order throughout. n Libya on the brink Tripoli could become the world’s first capital ruled by Islamic State | By Mirco Keilberth

ibya is descending into “After the elections in 2012, dip- university are being warned not civil war while the world lomats, normal citizens and politi- to go too close to male students; looks the other way. In cians still believed the moderate fashion boutiques have been shut late January, militant conservatives when they said they down by self-appointed religious IslamistsL from the self-styled would contain the few radicals. But police. Four years after the lib- Islamic State (IS) attacked the the jihadis said goodbye to society eration, it has once more become Corinthia, a luxury hotel in Trip- a long time ago.” dangerous to sit in a café and oli, popular with diplomats and The price of denying that the criticize those in power. Militias businessmen. At least three young movement was self-contained led by Abdurauf Kara and other men, barely 18 years old, stormed and interconnected from Mali to warlords are on the lookout every the building in the heart of the capi- Aleppo has been civil war. Is a day for drug dealers – and for tal. As security personnel tried to renewed international military mis- activists, whose Facebook posts help hotel staff wounded by volleys sion needed to prevent from the attackers’ Kalashnikovs, a Libya’s fledgling demo- car bomb exploded outside. cratic process? In Benghazi entire streets look The attack on the Mirco Keilberth is the just like the ruined wastelands of Corinthia Hotel left ten North Africa correspondent a

Aleppo. In heavy house-to-house hu people dead, at least for several German publications n fighting, the city’s local militias five of them foreign and is based in Tripoli, Libya. go/Xi ma battle jihadists from Tunisia, i nationals. The message Sudan and the rest of Libya. The remains of a car bomb set off outside Tripoli's Corinthia Hotel on Jan. 28, 2015 during an attack was clear. From now Private The country has become the launched by Islamic State-affiliated fighters. on, another force has focus for a wider regional war – a say in what happens and for the IS. If the radicals – who eign, often teenaged extremists and ing they would be useful idiots with no prospects decent pay and in Tripoli. A network reject Libya’s statehood, a consti- the former revolutionaries of Ansar in the anti-Assad alliance,” said a feeling of belonging, giving them which has nothing to do with the are monitored by the secret ser- tution and laws – triumph with al-Sharia. Six hundred people have Mansoury, echoing the view of independence and even a spiritual competing “Karama” and “Fajr” vices. And the Libyan delegation bombs and violence, Tripoli could been killed in Benghazi alone since many in Benghazi. home,” said one commander who alliances and which will strike at members who come back from become the world’s first capital city the start of the year. One-third of Many people have joined has since left the Islamist move- anyone who agrees to a constitu- the Geneva peace talks with com- to be ruled by the IS. the city’s population is on the run. “Karama,” not out of sympathy ment. But Libyan fighters returning tion or a peace treaty with Karama. promise solutions risk becoming a Following the deaths of more “Without Gaddafi, how exactly with Hafter and his generals who from Syria brought with them a It was also a message to the delega- target for the thousands of jihad- than 300 police and soldiers in did the scenario come about which served under Gaddafi, but out of new radicalization and the murder tions in Geneva struggling to forge ists waiting in training camps all attacks, retired army general Khal- NATO said it was saving us from?” despair. The uncompromising bru- of prominent activists; now the a ceasefire under the leadership over the country. ifa Hafter is seeking to prevent asked Taufwik Mansoury, who tality of the jihadists has turned off clans of the mostly moderate Libya of United Nations Special Repre- A compromise may be in sight in a takeover by the Islamists. His worked as a coordinator between Libya’s young people, who yearn reject the radical Islamists. sentative Bernardino Leon. The Geneva. As part of its “responsibil- “Karama” (dignity) alliance is a NATO and the rebels. “After 2012 for freedom. “It was foreseeable that the message is: we can strike anywhere, ity to protect,” the former alliance potpourri of clans and army units they left us with a new dictatorship. “For a while Islamist militias extremists would take over in any time at those who oppose us. of the Friends of Libya has a duty from Cyrenaica province. It is a Because the West secretly just left like Ansar Sharia and Rafallah Benghazi, Sirte and Derna – and Things are hardly any better in to shield a possible transitional war against a loose alliance of for- the religious militias alone, think- Shati were able to offer young men now Tripoli,” Mansoury said. Tripoli. Female students at the government. n QUAL2014GER

Quality. Quality. Quality. When you perform over 38 million vitally important treatments a year, nothing else matters.

Fresenius Polysulfone® dialysers lie at the heart of the dialysis treatment. Dialysers are highly efficient filters for removing toxic substances from the blood of dialysis patients.

The human kidney is truly a masterpiece of biology. It is at work around the clock, filtering harmful substances from our blood. But if our kidneys fail, our body is unable to cope without them. In most cases dialysis is the only answer, with the dialyser acting as an artificial kidney to take over the work of these vital organs.

As a world leader in dialysis, we apply the highest possible quality standards to our products and services, and work with the strictest controls imaginable. Anything else would be unthinkable for us. After all, hundreds of thousands of people put their lives in our hands every day. If you would like to know more: www.fmc-ag.com 30 Munich Security Report 2015 February 2015

year ago, as we pre- and become much harder to main- pared to assemble tain or manage, potential leaders First for the 50th Munich might consider the challenge to Security Conference, a Collapsing order, do so too great. Call it the vicious Aterrorist group that at the time Munich circle of international disorder. called itself ISIS had just seized To be sure, many charges leveled Security control of Fallujah and Ramadi at the United States are exagger- in Iraq. These advances mostly reluctant guardians ated. But President Obama’s focus just appeared on the radar screen on “nation building at home” has Report of specialized analysts. Protesters torically always been an enormous the structures for economic gov- huge gulf between demand for gov- led to a perception that America is had been filling the Maidan in Kiev challenge. ernance have arguably performed ernance and its actual provision. beating a retreat. Shrill warnings published for two months, but, to many, a In Western Africa, the Ebola rather well in managing the global Collapsing orders are arguably of an American empire, voiced peaceful, consensual inner-Ukrai- pandemic has almost shut down crisis after 2008, the same can both a driver and an effect of only a decade ago, have given way n Jan. 26, 2015, the nian solution was very much on a number of states. And in other hardly be said for security gov- an increasing reluctance on the to fears that Uncle Sam might Munich Security the table. regions of the continent, humani- ernance. Our collective ability to posts of its traditional guardians. disengage from the world. Both OConference (MSC) Only a few months later, the tarian disasters and protracted con- solve problems has decreased, and As potential leaders stop acting in Europe and in Asia, Washing- published the first Munich remarkable escalations of these flicts threaten the lives of millions. major institutions of global secu- the way they used to, other actors ton had to make clear that defend- Security Report (MSR), an two crises, along with a few other Challenges to effective global rity structures have beenCollapsing weak- Order,make Reluctantuse of th eirGuardians? opportunity | 7 to ing its allies remains a core inter- annual digest on critical ques- developments, have given rise to a governance also abound. While ened. This leaves the world with a test limits. And as orders crumble est of the United States. But it is tions and important trends in plethora of essays announcing the not certain how long the US can international security policy. advent of a new, more chaotic, and and will bear this extraordinary Which region will be most affected by rising geostrategic competition in the next This year's inaugural edition less peaceful era. 12–18 months? burden. is called "Collapsing Order, Terms such as “the great unravel- Assessment by the World Economic Forum's global knowledge network In Europe, many countries are Reluctant Guardians?" It is ing,” “the era of disorder,” an “era Percent still trying to overcome the impact available to the interested of unprecedented level of crises,” of the financial and economic public. or a world “coming apart at the Asia-Pacific 33 crisis as well as domestic block- In addition to provid- seams” base their pessimism on ades and rising Euroskepticism. Europe 22 ing short summaries of key eroding structures. After all, the Europe’s global role will not soon issues, the report features a flaws of today’s international order Middle East and North Africa 20 be spelled out in a meaningful way. selection of insightful analy- that these analyses highlight will At the same time, many Europeans ses, charts, and maps relating probably be with us for a long time. North America 12 openly say that Russia’s actions to events over the last twelve Numerous crucial international Sub-Saharan Africa 7 have done a lot to help them move months. and regional elements of order are closer together in matters of for- Topics of this year's report being tested. It is now more unclear Latin America 6 eign policy. If there is anything include the Ukraine crisis, than in many years whether those positive about the crisis of Euro- 6 | Collapsing Order, Reluctant Guardians? a survey of recent develop- in the international community Source: World Economic Forum17 pean security, it is this wake-up ments in jihadist extremism, that are trying to uphold order are call. It cannot be ignored. new challenges such as hybrid able to do so. Is there a leadership crisis in the world today? Many observers and practitio- Assessment by the World Economic Forum's global knowledge network warfare, and the global refu- War has returned to Europe, “WePercent; should by region be fully of origin role, of respondents while now some- economic considerations. The number of ners now consider Russia more proving that even the region with mind ful of the complexity times on the agenda, rele vant actors and potential spoilers has sky- of a spoiler than a contributor to the most tightly knit web of Strongly disagree Disagree Agree Strongly agree of the evolving internatio­ will not soon be spelled rocketed, also contributing to a decreased abil- international security and stabil- common rules, institutions, and nal architecture,Asia-Pacific and we out in a meaningful1 16 way. ity of countries61 to solve problems on2 their2 own ity. Yet Moscow has played a interdependence is at risk. Instead should also recognize At the same time, many or in coordination. This and the increasing inter- constructive role in certain areas of moving closer to the vision Europe 1 14 55 30 – notably in the negotiations that the growing trend Europeans openly say, dependence of today’s of a Europe whole, free and at between the five UN veto powers toward a multi­polar Russia’s policies have globalized societies fur- “Our age is insistently, at peace, the continent in 2014 has Middle East and North Africa 1 14 44 41 and Germany (P5+1) and Iran over world will not change.”14 done a lot to help them ther exacerbate broad- times almost desperately, seen attempts to resurrect divisions Tehran’s nuclear program. But North AmericaXi Jinping, move closer8 together in er 57 risks, for example in pursuit35 of a concept and classical spheres of influence. against the backdrop of Russia’s 29 November 2014 matters of foreign poli- risks stemming from of world order. Chaos What many wanted to avoid may Sub-Saharan Africa 8 65 27 role in the war in Ukraine, coop- cy. If there is anything climate change or threatens side by side become entrenched: different levels eration with Moscow will remain positive about the crisis of European security, cyber attacks. with unprecedented of security across Europe. And the Latin America 2 14 57 27 a severe challenge. it is that this wake-up call cannot be ignored. interdependence: in the breakdown in relations between And while the so-called rising Source: World Economic Forum18 Finally, our ability to pre- spread of weapons of Russia and the West may well powers have assumed crucial roles Many now consider Russia more of a spoiler dict major crises, let mass destruction, the undo all the progress made since in the world economy, their contri- Divergingthan a contributor trends to in international defense spending security and in Asia alone and prevent Europe them, ap- disintegration of states, What are the top 10 geopolitical risks for 2015? gee crisis. Special attention the end of the Cold War. USD billions butions to safeguarding the inter- stability. Yet Moscow has played a constructive pears to be weakening the impact of environ­ Eurasia Group, January 2015 is given to the role of the In the Middle East, the chal- national order have in the eyes of role inNATO certain Europe areas – notably Asiain the (excludes negotia- Australiaas well. and The New more Zealand) com- mental depredations, the United States, Germany’s lenges are even more fundamen- many been limited. “Geopolitics is back. As 2015 begins, political conflict among the world’s great powers 350tions between the P5+1 and Iran over Tehran’s plex and complicat- persistence of genocidal international responsibility, tal and threaten the very existence Of course, the breakdown of is in play more than at any time since the end of the Cold War.” nuclear program. But against the backdrop of ed the world gets, the practices, and the spread European defense coopera- of numerous states and regional 300 the old order cannot be attributed Russia’s role in the war in Ukraine, co op er ation harder it is to get it right. of new technologies tion, Nato’s problems and orders as we know them. The war merely to changing great power 1 The politics of Europe 6 Weak incumbents 250with Moscow will remain a severe challenge. Put differently, it’s much threat ening to drive con­ prospects, the strategy of in Syria has raged for well over relations, a shift in domestic priori- 200 easier today to overlook flict beyond human con­ 2 Russia 7 TheRussia rise of and strategic the Asian-Pacific sectors three years, killing hundreds of ties, or economic considerations. And while the so-called rising powers have or misjudge the signals trol or comprehension.”15 powers. thousands and forcing millions 150 The number of relevant actors assumed crucial roles in the world economy, amid the noise. Henry Kissinger, 2014 3 The effects of China slowdown 8 SaudiA Arabiafew selected vs. Iran highlights: to leave their homes. It has now and potential spoilers has sky- 100their contributions to safeguarding the inter- • A poll by TNS Infratest also metastasized into the broader rocketed, also contributing to a national order have in the eyes of many Thinking back to the situation in early 2014, 4 The weaponization of finance 9 Taiwan/Chinafor the Munich Security region, enabling the rise of the self- 50 decreased ability of countries to been limited. as hundreds of decision makers were about Report underlines that Ger- proclaimed Islamic State and fur- 0 solve problems on their own or in mans continue to view a more ther contributing to the disintegra- to travel to Munich: if many “missed” the rise 5 ISIS, beyond Iraq and Syria 10 Turkey 2005 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 2014 coordination. This and the increas- active German engagement tion of the current system. Crises in Of course, not all breakdown in order can be of ISIS and the coming funda mental crisis in ing interdependence of today’s glo- attributed merely to changing great power European security a year ago, the question Source: Eurasia Group16 in international crises skepti- Libya and Yemen have degenerated Source: The International Institute for Strategic Studies19 balized societies further exacerbate cally. Only 34 percent (2014: into civil wars, Egypt’s democratic relations, a change in domestic priorities, or now must be: What are we missing today? broader risks, for example risks 37 percent) are in favor of a interlude is over, and the conflict stemming from climate change or stronger engagement, while between Israelis and Palestinians What are the top 10 geopolitical risks for 2015? cyberattacks. 62 percent argue that Ger- violently erupted again. Only Tuni- Eurasia Group, January 2015 Finally, our ability to predict many should continue to sia has made real progress toward “Geopolitics is back. As 2015 begins, political conflict among the world’s great powers major crises, let alone prevent exercise restraint (2014: 60 a democratic future. is in play more than at any time since the end of the Cold War.” them, appears to be weakening percent). In the Asia-Pacific, even as major as well. The more complex and • The Institute for the Study incidents were avoided, the state of 1 The politics of Europe 6 Weak incumbents complicated the world gets, the of Radicalisation and Politi- play is precarious. Asia is the only harder it is to get it right. Put dif- cal Violence at King’s College region in which defense expendi- 2 Russia 7 The rise of strategic sectors ferently, it’s much easier today to London documents the rise tures have increased each year for overlook or misjudge the signals in foreign fighters who are the past two and a half decades. 3 The effects of China slowdown 8 Saudi Arabia vs. Iran amid the noise. joining jihadist groups in Iraq The rhetoric employed by numer- In early 2014, hundreds of deci- and Syria. ous actors has become much more 4 The weaponization of finance 9 Taiwan/China sion makers were about to travel to • New data from „The Mil- assertive, the regional security Munich. If many “missed” the rise itary Balance 2015“, prepared architecture is far from solid, and 5 ISIS, beyond Iraq and Syria 10 Turkey of ISIS and the coming fundamental by the International Institute the number of unresolved border crisis in European security a year for Strategic Studies, show disputes staggering. Moreover, the Source: Eurasia Group16 ago, the question now must be: a further reduction in mili- rise of an assertive power has his- What are we missing today? n tary capabilities in Europe. In Actors – Emerging Powers: Free Risers? | 23 Western Europe, for instance, military spending declined by 8.4 percent between 2010 and How the influence of certain countries is perceived in the world Average results from polls in 20 tracking countries 2014. Percent Mainly negative Mainly positive

Over the past five decades Emerging powers: freeBrazil riders?26 45 the Munich Security Confer- China 42 42 ence (MSC) has become a his year, China’s econ- cited its economic development In broader political and security commonSouth Africa perception of the 31strength Yet, 39 given their traditional insis- India 36 38 key annual gathering for the omy, if adjusted for as an important contribution to terms, the BRICS have often been ofRussia the West and a shared45 interest in tence31 on sovereignty and territorial international "strategic com- purchasing power, has the world. Recently, US Presi- lacking a common position: If they limitingGermany the West’s ability to dictate18 integrity, the60 BICS’ muted response CanadaActors – Emerging Powers: Free Risers? | 15 23 57 munity." Since its foundation overtaken the United dent Obama underlined that are “unified at all, it’s out of a theUK terms of international play.”21 to Russian56 action in Ukraine height- Actors – Emerging Powers: Free Risers? | 23 in 1963 as the "International TStates’ economy as the world’s “the United States welcomes the France 22 50 ened concerns that they might turn Japan 30 49 Wehrkunde Conference," the largest. Despite the rising eco- continuing rise of a China that How the influence of certain countries is perceived in the world into an anti-Western bloc. Average results from polls in 20 tracking countries US 39 42 MSC has been an independent nomic importance of the emerg- isHow peaceful the influence and of prosperouscertain countries and is perceived Percent in the world Mainly negative Mainly positive Others, however, observe “a Source: BBC/GlobeScan13 forum dedicated to promoting ing powers, some analysts con- stableAverage andresults thatfrom polls plays in 20 trackinga respon- countries concerted effort by the emerg- Percent Brazil Mainly negative Mainly positive26 45 peaceful conflict resolution tinue to label them “reluctant sible role in world affairs.” China 42 Catching42 up? ing powers to construct parallel GDP Brazil 26 45 31 39 South Africa Current USD billions and international cooperation stakeholders,” noting that their Through the BRICS42 group, 42 multilateral architectures that China India 36 38 31 39 20,000 and dialogue in dealing with contributions to global gover- Brazil,South Africa Russia, India, China, and Russia 45 31 route around the liberal order.” 36 38 European Union today’s and future security nance have not increased very SouthIndia Africa are joining forces Germany 18 60 While the importance of these Russia 45 31 15,000 US challenges. It has especially much. Are they free riders, are in a coordinated fashion. So far, Canada 15 57 Germany 18 UK 60 21 56 parallel institutions remains lim- Canada 15 57 focused on the transatlantic they learning to route around they have mainly focused on eco- France 22 10,000 50 ited to date, the increasingChina likeli- partnership. long-established structures, or nomicUK and financial matters,21 for Japan 56 30 49 hood of an ever more fragmented France 22 50 Brazil US 39 5,000 42 In addition to the tradi- do they contribute more than instanceJapan through the creation30 of 49 system underlines theRussia necessity of US 39 Source:42 BBC/GlobeScan13 India tional annual conference commonly assumed? the New Development Bank. 0 reform. South Africa n 13 in Munich in early Febru- Clearly, while Western repre- Source: BBC/GlobeScan Catching up? 2006 07 08 09 10 11 12 2013 GDP ary, the MSC has developed sentatives usually point out that Catching up? Current USD billions GDP per capita Current USD GDP 20,000 smaller formats. In 2015, rising global influence comes Current USD billions 60,000 European Union they will include the Energy with more global responsibility, 20,000 US 15,000 50,000 US Security Summit (May 6/7 the emerging powers feel that European Union US 40,000 in Berlin), the MSC Core their voices are not respected 15,000 European Union 10,000 China 30,000 Group Meetings in capi- enough. Russia 10,000 Brazil 5,000 China 20,000 Brazil tals around the world (June Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russia China Brazil 10,000 India 5,000 South Africa 16/17 in Vienna), and the for instance, emphasized that 0 Russia South Africa 0 India European Defence Summit his country “is a participant in, 2006 07 08India 09 10 11 12 2013 0 South Africa 2006 07 08 09 10 11 12 2013 (Sept. 15/16 in Brussels). n builder of, and contributor to GDP per capita 2006 07 08 09 10 11 12 2013 Source: World Bank14 the international system” and Current USD GDP per capita 60,000 Current USD US 60,000 50,000 US 50,000 40,000 European Union 40,000 30,000 European Union Russia 30,000 20,000 Brazil Russia China 10,000 20,000 Brazil South Africa China India 10,000 0 South Africa 2006 07 08 09 10 11 12 2013 0 India Source: World Bank14 2006 07 08 09 10 11 12 2013

Source: World Bank14 Hot Spots – Asia-Pacific: Pow(d)er Keg? | 31

“[A]n effective security order for Asia must Selected procurement and upgrade be based – not on spheres of influence, or priorities in Asia since 2010 coercion, or intimidation where big nations Number of countries purchasing and upgrading bully the small – but on alliances of mutual Frigates 13 security, international law and international Corvettes 9 norms […]. We have an ironclad commit­ Amphibious vessels 9 ment to the sovereignty, independence, and security of every ally. […] And by the Submarines 9 February 2015 end of this decade, a majorityMunich of our Security Navy OffshoreReport patrol2015 vessels 7 31 and Air Force fleets will be based out of the Destroyers 4 Pacific, because the United States is, and Aircraft and helicopter 3 will always be, a Pacific power.”10 carriers Barack Obama, Cruisers 1 Asia-Pacific:15 November 2014 a Source:pow(d)er IISS11 keg?

hen Japa- Maritime disputes and selected naval capabilities in the South China Sea trade routes, with almost a nese Prime third of global crude oil and

M i n i s t e r Shading = 200nm exclusive economic zone claims based on China (South Sea Fleet) over half of global LNG Shinzo Abe coastlines (including Pratas Island but excluding Paracel Islands). 3 SSBN CHINA trade passing through it. China/Taiwan EEZ shown as one claim. 2 SSN The Military Balance andW Chinese President Xi Possible exclusive economic zones generated by Paracel and Spratly 18 SSK Annual defense spending Jinping met for a hand- Islands, assuming island status for small number of features deemed 6 DDGHM Guangzhou in the region has more than able to qualify under UNCLOS and equidistance with overlapping EEZs. 8 FFGHM shake at the margins of the 12 FFG Shantou doubled over the past ten APEC summit in Novem- China’s ‘nine-dashed line’ years, and regional secu- Stonecutter’s Island ber, there were no smiles Naval base rity structures are rather – but a sigh of relief around Xiachuan Dao weak and untested. Many Beihai the world. After all, the Occupied by Haiphong Zhanjiang historical grievances have Pratas Island gesture, came along with China yet to be dealt with, and Haikou small suggestions made Philippines the number of unresolved toward improving bilateral Malaysia border disputes and com- crisis after many months of Vietnam LAOS Hainan peting territorial claims increasingly assertive and Taiwan is extraordinary. They aggressive rhetoric from are further exacerbated Yalong Bay both sides. SSBN Ballistic missile submarine by estimates that there In early February of 2014, SSI Midget submarine are enormous oil and gas at the Munich Security SSN Nuclear-powered submarine Common Fishery Zone reserves under its seabed. Philippines (whole navy) SSK Diesel-electric submarine Conference, Chinese Vice Paracel 1 FF A Pew poll in spring Foreign Minister Fu Ying DDGHM Destroyer with Anti-ship Missile Danang Islands 2014 showed that large (AShM), SAM and hangar Macclesfield said that the relationship THAILAND FFGHM Frigate with AShM, SAM and hangar Bank majorities in the region are between her country and FFGM Frigate with AShM and SAM Vietnam (whole navy) “concern[ed] that disputes 2 SSI Japan was “at its worst.“ A FFG Frigate with AShM Cavite between China and neigh- 2 SSK Scarborough few days earlier, in Davos, FF Frigate 2 FFGM SOUTH Reef Subic Bay boring countries could Abe had likened the China- lead to armed conflict:” 93

Japan relationship to the PHILIPPINES percent in the Philippines, one between Britain and VIETNAM CHINA 85 percent in Japan, 84 CAMBODIA Mind oro S Germany just before the trait percent in Vietnam, and 83 outbreak of World War I. SEA percent in South Korea. In “Even if military engage- Cam Ranh Bay China, 62 percent have the ment is highly unlikely, same concern. China-Japan is still the Sharing their citizens’ world’s most geopoliti- worries, China’s neighbors cally dangerous bilateral Nhon Trach have been seek ing much relationship and that will closer ties to the US. The remain the case,” Eurasia US government, in turn, Spratly Islands Group President Ian Brem- has stated unequivocally mer wrote at the time. that it remains committed Today, even as relations to the ‘pivot’ and to its between China and Japan allies’ security. “The rebal- have improved, the situa- ance is not a goal, not a tion in the East and South Malaysia (whole navy) promise, or a vision – it’s a China Seas, in particular, 2 SSK reality,” Chuck Hagel said Sepanggar remains fragile. While the 2 FFGHM at the last Shangri-La Dia- 2 FFG Indonesia (whole navy) risk of armed conflict might 6 FF logue. “We take no posi- 2 SSK Muara MALAYSIA be low, it is not negligi- 7 FFGHM tion on competing territo- MALAYSIA Brunei ble, and the consequences 4 FFGM BRUNEI rial claims. But we firmly Has no Submarines or PSCs would be enormous – not Tanjung Gelang oppose any nation’s use of only because the South INDONESIA INDONESIA intimidation, coercion, or © IISS China Sea is one of the the threat of force to assert world’s most important Source: The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)12 those claims.” n

Save the Date Our Events in 2015/2016

MSC Munich Young Leaders Alumni Meeting 30 April–1 May 2015 Washington DC, United States

Energy Security Summit 2015 6–7 May 2015 Berlin, Germany

7th MSC Core Group Meeting 16–17 June 2015 Vienna, Austria

European Defence Summit 2015 15–16 September 2015 Brussels, Belgium

Munich Strategy Forum 22–24 November 2015 Elmau, Germany

Munich Security Conference 2016 12–14 February 2016 Munich, Germany

8th MSC Core Group Meeting April 2016 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

ST-Anzeige 290 x 260.indd 1 30.01.15 16:00 A CLASS OF THEIR OWN. “ No other ships today can match the high standards set by MS EUROPA and MS EUROPA 2 and their crews.” Douglas Ward, Berlitz Cruise Guide

For the first time in the history of the Berlitz Cruise Guide, in 2014 two ships have achieved the most exclusive ranking of 5-stars-plus. Experience the elegant luxury and the freedom that takes you places in the highest award category.

www.hl-cruises.com

290x530_EUR_EUX_5Sterneplus_AtlanticTimes_en.indd 1 05.08.2014 10:09 Uhr size_type; typedef typename matrix< T, Container >::row_proxy row_proxy; typedef typename ma- trix< T, Container >::column_const_proxy::iterator column_iterator; if(quad_matrix.rows() != quad_matrix.columns()){ throw error::not_quadratic("mitrax::inverse<>()", quad_matrix.dimen- sion()); } size_type size = quad_matrix.rows(); matrix< T, Container > original(quad_matrix); matrix< T, Container > result(quad_matrix.dimension()); { typename matrix< T, Container >::iterator iter = result.begin(); for(size_type i = size_type(); i < size; ++i){ *iter = identity< T >::multiplicative(); iter += size + 1; } } std::vector< row_proxy > org_lines; org_lines.reserve(size); for(size_type line = size_type(); line < size; ++line){ org_lines. push_back(original.row(line));February 2015 } detail::proxy_swap_functor< row_proxy > proxy_swap; for(size_ Section C 33 type line = size_type(); line < size; ++line){ if(org_lines[line][line] == identity< T >::ad- ditive()){ bool status = proxy_swap; for(size_type row = line+1; row < size; ++row){ if(org_ lines[row][line] == identity< T >::additive()) continue; proxy_swap(org_lines[line], org_lines[row]); element_swap(result[line], result[row]); break; } if(status == proxy_swap){ throw tainererror:: singular>::row_proxy_matrix("mitrax::inverse<>()"); } } for(size_type row_proxy; row = line+1; row < size; typedef ty- ++row){ T factor = (org_lines[row][line] / org_lines[line][line]); for(size_type column = line+1; column < size; ++column){ org_lines[row][column] -= factor * org_lines[line][column]; } for(size_type column = size_type(); column < size; ++column){ result[row][column] -= factor pename* result[line]matrix<[column]; } } for(size_type T, column Container = line+1; column < size; ++column){ org_>::column_const_ lines[line][column] /= org_lines[line][line]; } for(size_type column = size_type(); column < size; ++column){ result[line][column] /= org_lines[line][line]; } } for(size_type line = size-1; line > size_type(); --line){ for(size_type row = size_type(); row < line; ++row){ T proxy::iteratorfactor(org_lines[row][line]); for(size_type column_iterator; column = size_type(); column < size; ++column){ if(quad_ma- result[row][column] -= factor * result[line][column]; } } } return result; } template < ty- pename T, typename Container > inline matrix< T, Container > const inverse(matrix< T, Contai- ner > const& quad_matrix){ typedef typename matrix< T, Container >::size_type size_type; ty- trix.rows()pedef typename matrix< T,!= Container quad_matrix.columns()){ >::row_proxy row_proxy; typedef typename matrix< T, throw Container >::column_const_proxy::iterator column_iterator; if(quad_matrix.rows() != quad_ma- trix.columns()){ throw error::not_quadratic(Cyber"mitrax: Security:inverse<>()", quad_matrix.dimension()); error::} size_type size = quad_matrix.rows(); digi matrix original(quad_matrix);"mitrax: matrix< :inverse<>()", T, Container > result(quad_matrix.dimension()); { typename matrix< T, Container >::iterator iter = result.begin(); for(size_type i = size_type(); i < size; ++i){ *iter = identity< T >::multiplicative(); iter += size + 1; } } std::vector< row_proxy > org_lines; org_lines. quad_m.dimenion(reserve(size); for(size_type line = size_type();WARF line proxy_swap; for(size_type line = size_type(); line < size; ++line){ if(org_lines[line][line] == identity< T >::addi- tive()){ bool status = proxy_swap; for(size_type row = line+1; row < size; ++row){ if(org_ = quad_matrix.rows();lines[row][line] == identity< T >::additive()) continue; proxy_swap(org_lines[line], matrix< org_ T, Container lines[row]); element_swap(result[line], result[row]); break; } if(status == proxy_swap){ throw error::singular_matrix("mitrax::inverse<>()"); } } for(size_type row = line+1; row < size; ++row){ T factor = (org_lines[row][line] / org_lines[line][line]); for(size_type column > original(quad_matrix);= line+1; column < size; ++column){ org_lines[row][column] -= factor * org_ lines[line][co-matrix < T, Contai-

lumn]; } for(size_type column = size_type(); column < size; ++column){ result[row][column] -= T D; S factor * result[line][column]; } } for(size_type column = line+1; column < size; ++column){ H elpro x

org_lines[line][column] /= org_lines[line][line]; } for(size_type column = size_type(); co- /pi a oli lumn < size; ++column){ result[line][column] /= org_lines[line][line]; } } for(size_type line t

ner > result(quad_matrix.dimension());fo { ty- = size-1; line > size_type(); --line){ for(size_type row = size_type(); row < line; ++row){ T factor(org_lines[row][line]); for(size_type column = size_type(); column < size; ++column) pename{ result[row][column] matrix< -= factor * result[line][co matrix::ite- pename T, typename Container > inline matrix< T, Container > const inverse(matrix< T, Contai- ner > const& quad_matrix){ typedef typename matrix< T, Container >::size_type size_type; ty- pedef typename matrix< T, Container >::row_proxy row_proxy; typedef typename matrix< T, rator Containeriter >::column_const_proxy::iterator = result.begin(); column_iterator; if(quad_matrix.rows() != quad_ma- for(size_type i trix.columns()){ throw error::not_quadratic("mitrax::inverse<>()", quad_matrix.dimension()); } size_type size = quad_matrix.rows(); matrix< T, Container > original(quad_matrix); matrix< T, Container > result(quad_matrix.dimension()); { typename matrix< T, Container >::iterator = size_type();iter = result.begin(); for(size_type ii = size_type();< size; i < size; ++i){ *iter ++i){= identity< T *iter = iden- >::multiplicative();Why iter += wesize + 1;are } } std::vector< not row_proxy ready > org_lines; org_lines. reserve(size); for(size_type line = size_type(); line < size; ++line){ org_lines.push_back(original. row(line)); } detail::proxy_swap_functor< row_proxy > proxy_swap; for(size_type line = size_type(); line < size; ++line) { if(org_lines[line][line] == identity< T >::additive()){ bool status = proxy_swap; for(size_type row = line+1; row < tity< size;T ++row){ if(org_lines[row]> [line] ::multiplicative();== identity< T >::additive()) continue; proxy_swap(org_lines[line], org_lines[row]); element_ iter += size swap(result[line], result[row]); break; } if(statusfor == proxy_swap)cyberwar{ throw error::singular_matrix("mitrax::inverse<>()"); } } for(size_ type row = line+1; row < size; ++row){ T factor = (org_lines[row][line] / org_lines[line][line]); for(size_type column = line+1; column < size; ++column){ org_lines[row][column] -= factor * org_lines[line][column]; } for(size_type column = size_type(); column < + 1; }size; ++column)} { Ourresult[row][column]std::vector< dependence -=on factor computers * result[line][column]; is growing faster } } thanfor(size_ ourtype ability column torow_proxy = forestallline+1; column attacks < size; | By ++column){ Edward Lucas > org_lines; omputers and networks which only that person can read. work or compromise a computer, as shocking. But allowing your Similarly, you should not be able convenience. We are programmed org_lines.reserve(size);are baffling and the But such schemes are still rare. all you need to do is get your computerfor(size_type to be hijacked by spies, to wander through cyberspace to trust and helpline others – primi- = size_type(); people who do under- Employers, retailers, governments victim to click on a link or open criminals or hooligans makes you if you are unwittingly spread- tive man could not survive solo – stand them are notori- and other institutions all rely on an attachment. That will install part of their misdeeds, which can ing infections which hurt other while at the same time engaging in Cously bad at explaining the things flimsy combinations of passwords “malware” (malicious software) ruin lives, bankrupt businesses or people. This kind of thinking— a constant series of observations line < size;that matter. The security of what ++line){and logins, sometimes backed up on the target’s computer,org allow- weaken_lines.push_back(original. national security. about public health—offers some and actions, mostly unconscious. is now the central nervous system with mobile-phone messages or ing the adversary access over the The threats to our computers useful parallels for the world of Our eyes, ears and noses tell when of modern life – the Internet – is “dongles” (gadgets that provide Internet or by some other means. and networks are ambiguous. It cyber-security. we are safe or in danger, what to baffling too. But it is of main- a special code, or can be plugged Another crude but effective attack can be clear that an attack has Our fundamental problem is do, where and when. row(linestream)); importance. } intodetail: a computer). is called “distributed:proxy denial of ser- happened, but_swap_functor< it is usually much that evolution has not prepared Once we venture online, all row_proxy > pro- The most important thing to Another supposed line of pro- vice” – it involves simply swamp- harder to attribute blame. The us for the challenges which elec- that vanishes. Our senses are understand is that the Internet is tection is “security certificates”. tronic communication presents. constrained: all we have to go on inherently vulnerable, because it These are digital signatures for Our sense of security in the are the words and images on a xy_swap;was notfor(size_type designed with security websites which should give the line = size_type(); line < size; Evolution has not wider world outside our homes screen, plus tinny sounds coming in mind. It developed as a means user the confidence to know that and workplaces is instinctive. from a small loudspeaker. It is for research collaboration, with he is interacting safely over the prepared us for We know that some neighbor- a simulacrum of the real world, ++line){ resilienceif(org_lines[line][line] (including the ability Internet. They are usually signi- hoods are== safer than others, identity< that but a deceptive one. We may feel T >::addi- to withstand a nuclear attack) as fied by a small padlock on your the challenges which some times of day require spe- confident in our familiar routines prime feature. This remains the browser. But the system of secu- electronic communication cial precautions. We may avoid – shopping, browsing, Skypeing, tive()){ case. bo The Internet is amazingly rity certificates is fundamentally conspicuous behavior in some emailing – but in truth we are capable and robust. Processing broken. The companies and other circumstances, such as when we helpless, unprepared and vulner- power, memory and connectivity outfits which issue them have presents. travel. Shopping in a bazaar able to thieves, manipulators and have become astonishingly cheap. been breached time and again; on vacation in a poor country enemies. We cannot see the people Even the poorest people in the some are close to governments ing the victim’s network with Internet makes geography all but we will browse, negotiate and we are dealing with; we cannot world can aspire to have a mobile with proven records of mischief- bogus requests for information, so meaningless. You may be able pay differently from the way judge their tone of voice, body phone and use it to send and making. Most users of the Inter- that real data cannot get in or out. to see the source of an attack, or we would behave when visit- language or facial expressions. receive data. net have no real way of telling if The threat is mushrooming the destination of the stolen data. ing an upmarket boutique in a We cannot smell them or touch Yet the same features that make they are browsing safely or not. out of control. In recent months But that computer has almost rich-world city. We negotiate them. We cannot place them in the Internet so valuable also make The third problem is the sloppy we have seen prurient hooligans certainly been hijacked by the trust quickly, judging strangers the history and geography of our it vulnerable. The first and biggest way in which hardware and soft- break into the accounts of celebri- attacker. Its owner may be cul- on their appearance, behavior, lives. But we have to deal with weakness is identity. A famous ware are designed. Computer pro- ties on Apple’s computer network pably careless, but he them – and do so using technol- New Yorker cartoon shows a grams, and the chips they run on, in order to steal embarrassing or she is not the perpe- ogy which most of us do not Edward Lucas is a dog looking at a screen, with the are far too complicated for any pictures. An unknown attacker trator you are looking senior vice-president at the understand. caption “On the Internet, nobody individual to understand. New – probably North Korea – broke for. Center for European Policy Analysis, As a result, our dependence on knows you are a dog”. Nobody generations of products blindly into Sony, stealing and deleting Faced with a cyber- a think tank in Washington DC; computers is growing faster than he is also a senior editor at the knows if you are a criminal, include the work of previous ver- data, in purported revenge for attack, most victims Economist, and author of several our ability to forestall attackers. prankster, terrorist, hooligan or sions (it would be far too expen- that company’s mocking film keep quiet. Acknowl- books, including “Cyberphobia” Unless our thinking and behav- nutcase either. We lack the abil- sive to start from scratch). But about the dictator Kim Jong-un. edging that your which will be published by Bloomsbury later this year. ior change, we will become less ity to prove who we are to other this guarantees the presence of Cyberattacks are so numerous network has been PRIVATE safe, less free, less healthy, and people when we interact with what are called “zero-day” vul- that journalists tire of writing breached can be less happy. The first and most them, and we lack the ability to nerabilities—mistakes and flaws about them. And many breaches bad for business (it important shift in our thinking check that they are who they say in hardware and software which are never made public at all. destroys trust among customers, and tone of voice, and using is to understand that cybersecu- they are. an attacker can exploit. Simply Our system is not set up to deal suppliers, regulators and share- introductions and connections rity is not a technical issue, any This is changing slowly. Coun- by connecting a computer to the with this. We worry more about holders). One important step for to establish obligation and privi- more than road safety is about tries such as Estonia have digital Internet (or even turning it on our computers and networks policymakers should be manda- leges. A heavily-built, scruffy engineering (it is about simple ID systems (recently available to when other electronic devices are being convenient and cheap than tory reporting requirements, as and somewhat drunk young man routines), or that public health is foreigners too) which allow users nearby or plugged in to it) can be we do about security. Whereas a in the realm of public health. on my doorstep in the small about medicine (it is mainly about of the Internet to identify them- enough for the attacker’s software badly driven, badly maintained You would not be allowed to hours is a threat—until my sons hygiene). We need to rethink selves. I have an Estonian ID and to find and exploit a “zero-day”. car is regarded as a menace, and wander the streets of a city if remind me that they are expect- our behavior – as individuals, I can send a cryptographically These tend to be used by sophis- may be subject to criminal penal- you suffered from tuberculosis. ing guests. organizations and societies – in signed email that can only have ticated attackers against impor- ties, the idea of prosecuting some- Even though you may not feel The past millennia of civiliza- dealing with the threats we face come from me, and I can send tant targets. But most attacks one for careless use of a com- the symptoms greatly, or at all, tion have given us a huge range of online. That is a problem involv- a document to another person are far simpler. To breach a net- puter would strike most people you are a danger to other people. skills to balance risk, security and ing humans, not machines. n size_type; typedef typename matrix< T, Container >::row_proxy row_proxy; typedef typename ma- trix< T, Container >::column_const_proxy::iterator column_iterator; if(quad_matrix.rows() != quad_matrix.columns()){ throw error::not_quadratic("mitrax::inverse<>()", quad_matrix.dimen- sion()); } size_type size = quad_matrix.rows(); matrix< T, Container > original(quad_matrix); matrix< T, Container > result(quad_matrix.dimension()); { typename matrix< T, Container >::iterator iter = result.begin(); for(size_type i = size_type(); i < size; ++i){ *iter = identity< T >::multiplicative(); iter += size + 1; } } std::vector< row_proxy > org_lines; org_lines.reserve(size); for(size_type line = size_type(); line < size; ++line){ org_lines. push_back(original.row(line)); } detail::proxy_swap_functor< row_proxy > proxy_swap; for(size_ type line = size_type(); line < size; ++line){ if(org_lines[line][line] == identity< T >::ad- ditive()){ bool status = proxy_swap; for(size_type row = line+1; row < size; ++row){ if(org_ lines[row][line]34 == identity< T >::additive()) continue; proxy_swap(org_lines[line], org_lines[row]); February 2015 element_swap(result[line], result[row]); break; } if(status == proxy_swap){ throw error::singular_matrix("mitrax::inverse<>()"); } } for(size_type row = line+1; row < size; ++row){ T factor = (org_lines[row][line] / org_lines[linThe Security Timese][line]); • Cyber for(size_type column = line+1; column < size; ++column){ org_lines[row][column] -= factor * org_lines[line][column]; } for(size_type column = size_type(); column < size; ++column){ result[row][column] -= factor * result[line][column]; } } for(size_type column = line+1; column < size; ++column){ org_ lines[line][column] /= org_lines[line][line]; } for(size_type column = size_type(); column < size; ++column){ result[line][column] /= org_lines[line][line]; } } for(size_type line = size- 1; line > size_type(); --line){ for(size_type row = size_type(); row < line; ++row){ T factor(org_lines[row][line]); for(size_type column = size_type(); column < size; ++column){ result[row][column] -= factor * result[line][column]; } } } return result; } template < ty- pename T, typename Container > inline matrix< T, Container > const inverse(matrix< T, Contai- ner tainer> const& quad_matrix){ typedef >::row_proxy typename matrix< T, Container >::size_type size_type; row_proxy; ty- typedef ty- pedef typename matrix< T, Container >::row_proxy row_proxy; typedef typename matrix< T, Container >::column_const_proxy::iterator column_iterator; if(quad_matrix.rows() != quad_ma- trix.columns()){ throw error::not_quadratic("mitrax::inverse<>()", quad_matrix.dimension());Securing pename} size_type size = quad_matrix.rows(); matrix< matrix< T, Container >T, original(quad_matrix); Container matrix< >::column_const_ T, Container > result(quad_matrix.dimension()); { typename matrix< T, Container >::iterator iter = result.begin(); for(size_type i = size_type(); i < size; ++i){ *iter = digitalidentity< T >::multiplicative(); iter += size + 1; } } std::vector< row_proxy > org_lines; org_lines. proxy::iteratorreserve(size); for(size_type line = size_type(); line < size; column_iterator; ++line){ org_lines.push_ if(quad_ma- back(original.row(line)); } detail::proxy_swap_functor< row_proxy > proxy_swap; for(size_typesafety line = size_type(); line < size; ++line){ if(org_lines[line][line] == identity< T >::addi- tive()){ bool status = proxy_swap; for(size_type row = line+1; row < size; ++row){Cyberwar if(org_ doctrine trix.rows()lines[row][line] == identity< T >::additive()) !=continue; proxy_swap(org_lines[line],quad_matrix.columns()){tries to keep org_ pace throw lines[row]); element_swap(result[line], result[row]); break; } if(status == proxy_swap)with the realities{ throw error::singular_matrix("mitrax::inverse<>()"); } } for(size_type row = line+1;of the virtual row world < size; ++row){ T factor = (org_lines[row][line] / org_lines[line][line]); for(size_type column erro::= line+1; column < size; ++column){HA CKTorg_lines[row][column]IVI -=SM factor * org_(lines[line][co-"mitrax:By Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg :inverse<>()", lumn]; } for(size_type column = size_type(); column < size; ++column){ result[row][column]and Ulf Gartzke -= factor * result[line][column]; } } for(size_type column = line+1; column < size; ++column){ org_lines[line][column] /= org_lines[line][line]; } for(size_type column = size_type(); co- quad_matrix.dimension());lumn < size; ++column){ result[line][column] /= org_lines[line][line]; } } for(size_type line } size_type size = = size-1; line > size_type(); --line){ for(size_type row = size_type(); row < line; ++row){ T factor(org_lines[row][line]); for(size_type column = size_type(); column < size; ++column) { result[row][column] -= factor * result[line][column]; } } } return result; } template < ty- quad_matrix.rows();pename T, typename Container > inline matrix< T, Container > const inverse(matrix< matrix ner > const& quad_matrix){ typedef typename matrix< T, Container >::size_type size_type; ty- pedef typename matrix< T, Container >::row_proxy row_proxy; typedef typename matrix< T, Container >::column_const_proxy::iterator column_iterator; if(quad_matrix.rows() != quad_ma-

original(quad_matrix);T matrix < T, Contai- trix.columns()){ throw error::not_quadratic("mitrax::inverse<>()", quad_matrix.dimension()); D; S } size_type size = quad_matrix.rows(); matrix< T, Container > original(quad_matrixH ); matrix< elpro x /pi

T, Container > result(quad_matrix.dimension()); { typename matrix< T, Containera >::iterator oli t neriter = result.begin(); > for(size_typeresult(quad_matrix.dimension()); i = size_type(); i < size; ++i){ *iter =fo identity< T { ty- >::multiplicative(); iter += size + 1; } } std::vector< row_proxy > org_lines; org_lines. reserve(size); for(size_type line = size_type(); line < size; ++line){ org_lines.push_ back(original.row(line)); } detail::proxy_swap_functor< row_proxy > proxy_swap; for(size_type peline = size_type();name line < size;matrix< ++line){ if(org_lines[line] matrix<[line] == identity< T >::addi- T, Deterrence >::ite- tive()){ bool status = proxy_swap; for(size_type row = line+1; row < size; ++row){ if(org_ lines[row][line] == identity< T >::additive()) continue; proxy_swap(org_lines[line], org_ lines[row]); element_swap(result[line],t should come as no sur- cyberdeterrence and result[row]); automatic would help remove break; a hesitancy of }took theif(status rare step of publicly == C yproxy_swap) b e r - { throw prise that private sector response are becoming more private companies to share infor- blaming North Korea, there is attacks are control over vast portions commonplace – even if they mation for fear of losing custom- still considerable discussion as more anony- ratorof our countries’ iter digital remain ambiguous. To make ers =and reputation. Inresult.begin(); addition, to who is really culpable. mous than sanc- for(size_type Iinfrastructure creates major matters more complicated, the the rapidly growing cyberinsur- In dealing with a hostile cyber tions and are thus more national security vulnerabilities. debates over these issues are ance market can act as buffer for event, governments need first to appealing. Ideally, they However, while we worry about highly controversial from a legal companies – making them more decide whether to respond con- allow someone to achieve an Hollywood-style “cyber Pearl and ethical point of view. That likely to share information by ventionally or in kind. Offensive objective without facing direct i = Harbors”size_type(); shutting down entire being said, the private sector limiting potential damage from cyber actions must be seeni in consequences.< Yet like sanctions,size; ++i){ *iter = power grids and water supply should waste no time optimizing a breach. the context of just war. Most it is impossible to guarantee systems, Western societies have their network defenses and limit- While it is imperative to focus discussions on the legality of that an offensive cyberoperation and so far failed to grasp the implica- ing vulnerabilities. on network defense, the develop- these tactics therefore center on will surgically reach the desired part- tions of a new and complex digi- Although easy to gloss over, ment of cyberwarfare still forces the principal of jus in bello – results. Even Stuxnet, praised nerships tal threat environment affecting this “defense first” point should us to debate the applicability, that attacks differentiate between for its sophistication in target- b e t w e e n identity of offensive civilians and combatants::multiplicative(); and are ing Tehran’s nuclear program, the public and iter += level – not only at every virtual all, many successful cyber attacks actions in today’s world. Since proportional to blows suffered. was only discovered because it private sectors reduces the risk level. can still be traced back to a single cyberwar favors the offense, it In a new field such as cyber, these started replicating on to com- that individual NATO countries Fortunately, attitudes are point of preventable failure. For is important to look at potential criteria are difficult to fulfill. If puters outside Iran. If a virus are easily thrown into the fire changing. The Snowden leaks example, the J.P. Morgan breach next steps and examine concepts a country fails to calibrate its “accidentally” takes out a power through a preventable hack. highlighted a number of key last summer – which many ini- such as “cyberdeterrence.” At retaliatory digital strike, the con- grid or water system because of a Such collaboration also lessens sizedevelopments that+ were previ- 1;tially suspected was the work} first glance,} the Cold War anal-std::vector org_ ously hiding in plain sight. First, of the Russians for geopo- be enormous. Depending affected by cyberattacks resort to our lives have become irrevocably litical purposes – was likely on the specific systems tar- illegal “revenge hacking,” which digitized. Second, the astonishing enabled by a server that geted, a country could be is of growing concern to US law rise of the technology sector has did not receive a critical Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, Ulf Gartzke is a founder accused of deliberately tar- enforcement agencies. a former German defense of Spitzberg Partners LLC reached a level that is fundamen- software update. Addition- as well as economics and teaches at geting civilians rather than It is worth emphasizing that lines;tally challenging the traditional org_lines.reserve(size);ally, the hacking of the US and technology minister, Georgetown University’s legitimate combatants. Any all of these initiatives focus on for(size_ relationship between govern- Central Command’s Twit- is chairman BMW Center for German cyber deterrence strategy defense and resiliency. Rather ments and business. Third, the ter account this January of Spitzberg Partners LLC. and European Studies. needs to sufficiently address than adopting a doctrine of digital threats that we face today was partly helped by the those concerns. cyberdeterrence, which may – ranging from state-sponsored Defense Department fail- Daniel Biskup Spitzberg Partners LLC The evolution of NATO’s require a reprisal act in kind, cyber­attacks such as the recent ing to verify the account, military doctrine illustrates NATO appears to aim for a typeSony hack to terroristline groups like which entails additional security= ogy seems tosize_type(); make sense. Pro- line < size; ++line) The modern use of “smart how challenging it is to adapt dissuasion by denial – as some ISIS using the Internet as a force requirements. tagonists of this period recall sanctions” provides an interest- to this new world. The spec- authors have called it – aiming to multiplier – have exposed the There is still much that needs the success and certainty of ing case study. These tools are trum of cyberthreats currently dissuade potential cyberattack- private sector to challenges never to be done to enhance network “Mutually Assured Destruction” largely meant to minimize col- faced by the Alliance ranges ers from acting in the first place. seen before, thus exacerbating defenses – especially as it relates between the US and the USSR. lateral damage, by for example from ISIS using social media for While this goal is laudable, the { orgtension between_lines.push_back(original.row(line companies and to public private sector collab- Given the destructive potential targeting a country’s elite or recruitment drives and Russia’s nature of cyber-assaults – which )); } governments. oration. Both sides are taking of a massive cyberattack on a specific businesses, to achieve a unleashing cyberattacks on its can easily be tried a thousand Any discussion on network positive steps to work together, country’s critical (digital) infra- desired change in behavior. Like “near abroad” to costly hack- times before succeeding – are security begins with defense. such as sharing information and structure, it is tempting to draw cyberattacks, they are appeal- ing operations run by criminal unlikely to deter sophisticated In other words, who should jointly running crisis simulations. parallels. ing to policymakers because networks. NATO’s most recent and determined attackers. be responsible for securing our Another constructive measure In reality, however, building up they provide the opportunity to responses include the release of Of course, strong cyberdefenses detail:digital lives? This is especially :proxythat has been adopted by govern- credible cyber deterrence_swap_functor< faces a “do something” without putting the first updated cyber policy play a crucial role. The easier it row_proxy > pro- true if the aggression can be ments, and the EU in particular, number of difficult practical and troops in harm’s way. However, since 2011, and a declaration is to diagnose a cyberattack and traced – either directly or indi- is mandating timely notification moral issues. A concept of deter- appearances can be deceiving. from the Alliance’s September identify the culprit, the more rectly – to a foreign government. of any private sector security rence is only acceptable if it also Sanctions often take a long time 2014 summit stating that the clarity and strength of purpose However, the US government’s breaches. deals with the consequences of to work out, and even if they are Article V collective self-defense NATO will have when formu- line delayed response to the “Sony When President Barack Obama its failure. It is extremely chal- successful there are frequently clause also covers cyberattacks. lating a response – whether it xy_swap;hack” shows that charting the unveiled his cyber securityfor(size_type initia- lenging to determine the precise more victims than the targeted In addition, the Alliance is be conventionalline or in kind. That = size_type(); appropriate course of action is tives in early January, he pledged origins of a cyberattack – espe- inner circle or set of individuals. working to deepen relationships being said, countries that con- not that simple in cyberspace. “targeted liability protection” cially under time pressure. Look Further, disproportionate suffer- with the private sector through tinue to ignore critical doctrinal Cyberwar doctrine is trying to companies that share infor- no further than the continuing ing caused by sanctions provides programs such as the NATO questions related to cyber war to keep pace with these evolv- mation with the government. If debate about the Sony hack for an easy propaganda opportunity Industry Cyber Partnership – particularly offensive actions – ing challenges. Terms such as enacted properly, such a step proof. While Washington finally for the opponent. (NICP). Bolstering collaboration do so at their own peril. n size_type; typedef typename matrix< T, Container >::row_proxy row_proxy; typedef typename ma- trix< T, Container >::column_const_proxy::iterator column_iterator; if(quad_matrix.rows() != quad_matrix.columns()){ throw error::not_quadratic("mitrax::inverse<>()", quad_matrix.dimen- sion()); } size_type size = quad_matrix.rows(); matrix< T, Container > original(quad_matrix); matrix< T, Container > result(quad_matrix.dimension()); { typename matrix< T, Container >::iterator iter = result.begin(); for(size_type i = size_type(); i < size; ++i){ *iter = :size_typeidentity< T >::multiplicative(); size_type; iter += size +typedef 1; } } std::vector< row_proxytypename > org_lines; ma- org_lines.reserve(size); for(size_type line = size_type(); line < size; ++line){ org_lines. push_back(original.row(line)); } detail::proxy_swap_functor< row_proxy > proxy_swap; for(size_ trix< typeT, line =Container size_type(); line < size; ++line){>::row_proxy if(org_lines[line][line] == identity::ad- ditive()){ bool status = proxy_swap; for(size_type row = line+1; row < size; ++row){ if(org_ February 2015lines[row][line] == identity< T >::additive()) continue; proxy_swap(org_lines[line], org_lines[row]); 35 typedefelement_swap(resul typenamet[line], result[row]); matrix< break; } T, if(status Container == proxy_swap){ throw >::co- error::singular_matrix("mitrax::inverse<>()"); } } for(size_type row = line+1; row < size; lumn_const_proxy::iterator++row){ T factor = (org_lines[row][line] / org_lines[line][line]); column_itera- for(size_type column = line+1; column < size; ++column){ org_lines[row][column]The Security Times • Cyber -= factor * org_lines[line][column]; } for(size_type column = size_type(); column < size; ++column){ result[row][column] -= factor tor; if(quad_matrix.rows()* result[line][column]; } } for(size_type column = line+1; column!= < quad_matrix.size; ++column){ org_ lines[line][column] /= org_lines[line][line]; } for(size_type column = size_type(); column < size; ++column){ result[line][column] /= org_lines[line][line]; } } for(size_type line = columns()){size-1; line > size_type(); throw --line){ error::not_quadratic( for(size_type row = size_type(); row < line; ++row){ T "m factor(org_lines[row][line]); for(size_type column = size_type(); column < size; ++column){ result[row][column] -= factor * result[line][column]; } } } return result; } template < ty- itrax:pename:inverse<>()", T, typename Container > inline matrix< quad_matrix.dimensi-T, Container > const inverse(matrix< T, Contai- ner > const& quad_matrix){ typedef typename matrix< T, Container >::size_type size_type; ty- on());pedef } typename size_type matrix< T, Container >::sizerow_proxy row_proxy;= quad_matrix.rows(); typedef typename matrix< T, Container >::column_const_proxy::iterator column_iterator; if(quad_matrix.rows() != quad_ma- trix.columns()){ throw error::not_quadratic("mitrax::inverse<>()", quad_matrix.dimension()); matrix<} size_type T, size Container= quad_matrix.rows(); matrix< > T, Containeroriginal(quad_ma- > original(quad_matrix); matrix< T, Container > result(quad_matrix.dimension()); { typename matrix< T, Container >::iterator iter = result.begin(); for(size_type i = size_type(); i < size; ++i){ *iter = identity< T trix);>::multiplicative(); matrix iter < += sizeT, + 1;Container } } std::vector< row_proxy > > org_lines;result(quad_ org_lines. reserve(size); for(size_type line = size_type(); line < size; ++line){ org_lines.push_ matrix.dimension(back(original.row(line)); } detail:Cyb:proxy_swap_functor proxy_swap;name for(size_type ma- line = size_type(); line < size; ++line){ if(org_lines[line][line] == identity< T >::addi- tive()){ bool status = proxy_swap; for(size_type row = line+1; row < size; ++row){ if(org_ trix< linesmatrix<[row][line] == identity< T, T Deterre >::additive()) continue;nce proxy_swap(org_lines[line], >::iterator org_ iter lines[row]); element_swap(result[line], result[row]); break; } if(status == proxy_swap){ throw error::singular_matrix("mitrax::inverse<>()"); } } for(size_type row = line+1; row < = result.begin();size; ++row){ T factor = (org_lines[row][line] for(size_type / org_lines[line][line]); for( isize_type = columnsize_ = line+1; column < size; ++column){ org_lines[row][column] -= factor * org_lines[line][co- type();lumn]; }i for(size_type < size; column = size_type(); ++i){ column < *itersize; ++column){ =result[row][column] identity< -= T factor * result[line][column]; } } for(size_type column = line+1; column < size; ++column){ org_lines[line][column] /= org_lines[line][line]; } for(size_type column = size_type(); co- >::multiplicative();lumn < size; ++column){ result[line][column] /=iter org_lines[line][line]; += size } } for(size_type + 1; line } } = size-1; line > size_type(); --line){ for(size_type row = size_type(); row < line; ++row){ T factor(org_lines[row][line]); for(size_type column = size_type(); column < size; ++column) std::vector<{ result[row][column] -=row_proxy factor * result[line][co lumn];> }org_ } } returnlines; result; } template < ty-org_ pename T, typename Container > inline matrix< T, Container > const inverse(matrix< T, Contai- ner > const& quad_matrix){ typedef typename matrix< T, Container >::size_type size_type; ty- lines.reserve(size);pedef typename matrix< T, Container >::row_proxy for(size_type row_proxy; typedef typename matrix< T, line Container >::column_const_proxy::iterator column_iterator; if(quad_matrix.rows() != quad_ma-

trix.columns()){ throw error::not_quadratic("mitrax::inverse<>()",fotolia/pixelproHD; ST quad_matrix.dimension()); = size_type();} size_type size = quad_matrix .rows();line matrix< T,< Container size; > original(quad_matrix ++line)); matrix< { T, Container > result(quad_matrix.dimension()); { typename matrix< T, Container >::iterator iter = result.begin(); for(size_type i = size_type(); i < size; ++i){ *iter = identity< T >::multiplicative(); iter += size + 1; } } std::vector< row_proxy > org_lines; org_lines. he assault began in The effects of these targeted travel with briefcases that could silence.reserve(size); The attackers attacks are immense. for(size_type Damages in line = size_type(); line < size;easily ++line){ double as James org_lines.push_ Bond c a r e proceededback(original.row(line)); with abso- Germany alone are estimated } detail::proxy_swap_functor< row_proxy >props, proxy_swap; for example to makefor(size_type indus- lute professionalism.line = size_type(); at €50 billion annually, line Rie- < size; ++line){ if(org_lines[line][line]laptops == identity< snoop-proof. Or T try.>::addi- Some UsingT spear phishing – emails band said in mid-January in tive()){ bool status = proxy_swap; for(size_type row = line+1; rowthey < make size; calls using ++row){ crypto- sectors if(org_ were aimed at specific individuals, Berlin. Whether strategies, equipment with secret codes already well lines[row][line] == identity< T >::additive()) continue; proxy_swap(org_lines[line], org_ in this case workerslines [row]); at a steel element_swap(result[line], research results or innovations, result[row]); break; } if(status == proxy_swap){ throw error::singular_matrix("mitrax::inverse<>()");on their iPhones – for outsiders equipped, others} } foundry – they gained access to siphoned secrets can quickly cause hardly noticeable. not, said Ole Schröder, key data centers. The rest was problems for entire industrial sec- In Germany the company that a senior IT security official. “We child’s play. Through a compro- tors. Germany’s knowledge-econ- probably goes farthest is aero- don’t have much time to lose,” mised PC the attackers penetrated omy, its only real global commod- Digital naïfs space group Airbus, with 140,000 he said. deeper and deeper into the com- ity, could suffer serious damage workers and €60 billion annual So how does the German pany’s intranet, until they reached as a result. German companies and research centers revenue. The Airbus Group (for- economy intend to better pro- the central control system for the Security authorities have there- merly EADS) spends up to €70 tect itself? Ninety percent of entire steel works. The effects of fore been urging the private sector are prime targets for cyber attacks. million every year protecting itself all software is produced in the this cyberattack on a German firm to take action fast. IT departments Yet many seem frighteningly against attacks, according to Guus United States. And ever since were an enterprise gone haywire need to redouble their efforts Dekkers, the group’s IT chief. the Snowden revelations, that and a damaged blast furnace. at ensuring cyber security, said unconcerned | By Markus Balser A cyber center with enormous country is largely regarded as It’s by far not just sensational Michael Hange, President of the screens monitors the firm’s IT part of the problem, not the solu- operations like the cyberattack Federal Office for Security and ers have become taken over by possible attack target, law enforce- around the clock, blocks risky web tion. Berlin hopes to mobilize on Sony Pictures and the hacks Information Technology (BSI). botnets that criminals or foreign ment officials say. sites automatically and sets off an Germany’s own know-how. Ole of German government web- “Despite a high threat level there intelligence can use for their own At least in the boardrooms of alarm when employees check their Schröder believes German firms sites early in January that have is digital carelessness out there,” ends – without the owners sus- big corporations, attitudes are email from outside computers. The need to get creative instead of German authorities on edge. Hange said at a Berlin cyber secu- pecting a thing. Many attacks changing. Many urgent secu- goal is to shield sensitive informa- just being subcontractors of the Security experts are sounding rity forum. Fifty thousand control originate in Russia or tion on aircraft, satellites and rock- global IT industry. They need to the alarm amid soaring num- systems of German companies are China, the BSI says. ets. The corporation has already build up their own know-how, bers of attacks even on midsized directly connected to the Inter- An Eastern Euro- experienced too many unfortunate and hold onto it. Possible merg- Markus Balser is an companies. Given its prominent net yet inadequately protected, he pean hacker group economics correspondent episodes, such as bids made public. ers and acquisitions of companies status in business and research, said, adding that only 6 percent called Dragonfly used for the Süddeutsche Zeitung. But Dekkers admits that “many with essential expertise would Germany has become “a prime of all emails sent in Germany are a malware program He reports from Berlin employees don’t like it. They feel be “accompanied critically,” target,” warns Catrin Rieband, encrypted. called Havex to attack about energy and over-regulated.” Schröder said. environment topics. a senior federal law enforce- Meanwhile, the bad guys are industrial facilities in But Berlin wants to ensure It is dawning on many in ment official. “Not a day goes building up at a startling tempo, Europe and the US and that more companies follow the German industries that this initia- by in which we don’t find out according to German law enforce- to spy on corporations. sz/private Airbus example and set up their tive means the beginning of years about new cyber attacks,” she ment. An estimated one billion One German gas grid own firewalls. Draft IT legislation of struggle. For Airbus IT boss said. More and more, Germany’s malware programs are currently operator recorded “anomalies in rity measures by German firms approved by the cabinet would Guus Dekkers, “this is a journey political, business and research circulating worldwide. Every day, data flow.” IT experts fear that read like spy thrillers. German better shield critical infrastruc- that has no end.” n communities are in the crosshairs according to the BSI, that number the attackers could go further and share index DAX corporations ture in the country, including the

of foreign intelligence services grows by 300,000. In Germany cripple water or electric supply are building surveillance-secure energy, finance and transporta- This article was originally published and hackers. alone, about one million comput- systems. Critical infrastructure is a conference rooms. Top executives tion sectors, as well as the health- in the Süddeutsche Zeitung on Jan. 15, 2015.

Since its launch in the US capital on Oct. 6, 2004 The Atlantic Times remains the only German paper in English available from New York to Hawaii.

As a media bridge between Berlin and Washington, The Atlantic Times is a key platform for political, economic and cultural exchange within a transatlantic partnership that is more important now than ever.

www.atlantic-times.de

A newspaper from Germany size_type; typedef typename matrix< T, Container >::row_proxy row_proxy; typedef typename ma- trix< T, Container >::column_const_proxy::iterator column_iterator; if(quad_matrix.rows() != quad_matrix.columns()){ throw error::not_quadratic("mitrax::inverse<>()", quad_matrix.dimen- sion()); } size_type size = quad_matrix.rows(); matrix< T, Container > original(quad_matrix); matrix< T, Container > result(quad_matrix.dimension()); { typename matrix< T, Container >::iterator iter = result.begin(); for(size_type i = size_type(); i < size; ++i){ *iter = identity< T >::multiplicative(); iter += size + 1; } } std::vector< row_proxy > org_lines; org_lines.reserve(size); for(size_type line = size_type(); line < size; ++line){ org_lines. push_back(original.row(line)); } detail::proxy_swap_functor< row_proxy > proxy_swap; for(size_ 36 type line = size_type(); line < size; ++line){February if(org_lines[line][line] 2015 == identity< T >::ad- ditive()){ bool status = proxy_swap; for(size_type row = line+1; row < size; ++row){ if(org_ lines[row][line] == identity< T >::additive()) continue; proxy_swap(org_lines[line], org_lines[row]); The Security Timeselement_swap(resul • Cyber t[line], result[row]); break; } if(status == proxy_swap){ throw error::singular_matrix("mitrax::inverse<>()"); } } for(size_type row = line+1; row < size; The ghosts ++row){ tainer T factor = (org_lines[row][line] >::row_proxy / org_lines[line][line]); for(size_type columnrow_proxy; = typedef ty- line+1; column < size; ++column){ org_lines[row][column] -= factor * org_lines[line][column]; } for(size_type column = size_type(); column < size; ++column){ result[row][column] -= factor they have summoned* result[line][column]; } } for(size_type column = line+1; column < size; ++column){ org_ linespename[line][column] /= org_lines[line][line]; matrix< } for(size_type T,column = size_type();Container column < >::column_const_ States developed the most sophisticated malware.size; ++column){ result[line][column] /= org_lines[line][line]; } } for(size_type line = size- Now these technologies are proliferating | By Eugene1; lineKaspersky > size_type(); --line){ for(size_type row = size_type(); row < line; ++row){ T factor(org_lines[row][line]); for(size_type column = size_type(); column < size; ++column){ he world is becoming increas- world economy – hundreds of billions by a secret service, as they tend to be are likely to ignore some basic ingly reliant on computerized of dollars according to some estimates – equally stealthy and effective.resultproxy::iterator [row]rules of cybersecurity,[column] such as-= factor * result[line][column]; } } } return column_iterator; result; } template < ty- if(quad_ma- networks and devices that and it has a well-structured value chain, The next trend is that traditionalpename orga- storingT, typename important data sepa- Container > inline matrix< T, Container > const inverse(matrix< T, Contai- have effectively revolution- efficient distribution of labor, and a high nized crime is turning cyber: gangs are rately and with different Tized communication, manufacturing, ner > const& quad_matrix){ typedef typename matrix< T, Container >::size_type size_type; ty- level of professionalization. hiring software engineers to bolster their access rules, and not send- finance and many other areas of our There has been some noticeable prog- offline activities. We knowpedef of several typenameing important passwords matrix< T, Container >::row_proxy row_proxy; typedef typename matrix< T, lives. Unfortunately, this IT revolu- ress in tackling cybercrime on national such cases, including the involvementContainer without >::column_const_proxy::iteratorencryption. column_iterator; if(quad_matrix.rows() != quad_ma- tion has produced grave risks as well. and international levels, including very of hackers in the organizationtrix.rows() of drug Technologies and proce- != quad_matrix.columns()){ throw We see a rapidly evolving cyberthreat significant efforts by Europol, and the smuggling through the port trix.columns()){of Antwerp, dures for building resilient throw error::not_quadratic("mitrax::inverse<>()", quad_matrix.dimension()); landscape, and so far governments, law launch of Interpol’s cyber-arm, the Belgium. There have also been reports and highly protected com- enforcement agencies and private com- Global Complex for Innovation (IGCI) of criminal groups hiring} hackers size_type to puter networks size and indus- = quad_matrix.rows(); matrix< T, Container > original(quad_matrix); matrix< panies have not been able to stop the in Singapore. However, there are several facilitate the theft of coal fromT, a Containermine trial systems are> alreadyresult(quad_matrix.dimension()); { typename matrix< T, Container >::iterator development of cybercrime. very worrying trends in the development and grain from a silo by tweaking com- available; the problem is Arguably, it’s not possible to stop of cybercrime. puterized loading equipment.itererro:: = thatresult.begin(); so many organiza- for(size_type AD Vi = ANsize_type();CE i D< size; (++i){"mitrax: *iter = identity< T :inverse<>()", quad_ this process com- First is the This is most disturbing, >::multiplicative(); as in these tions continue to indulge iter += size + 1; } } std::vector< row_proxy > org_lines; org_lines. pletely because increase in cases we often see how criminalreserve(size); groups in bad practices, which for(size_type line = size_type(); line < size; ++line){ org_lines.push_ the global IT professional- are hacking physical industrial equip- literally invites hackers in sphere, the Eugene Kaspersky ism of criminal is the founder and CEO ment like Supervisory Controlback(original.row(line and Data to steal and generally cause )); } detail::proxy_swap_functor< row_proxy > proxy_swap; for(size_type number of con- of Kaspersky Lab in Moscow, groups. It used Acquisition (SCADA) systemslinetrix. used in= havoc.size_type(); Full protection is prob- line PERS< size; ++line){I if(org_lines[line][line]STENT ==dimension()); identity< T >::addi- } size_type nected gadgets, and a leading to be widely the operation of critical infrastructure ably impossible, but making and the volume global expert in the field believed that such as power grids or assemblytive()){ lines. defenses bool strong enough status to make = proxy_swap; for(size_type row = line+1; row < size; ++row){ if(org_ of information security. of business done governments This capability – to attack thelines computer-[row][line]a successful attack too == costly, identity< T >::additive()) continue; proxy_swap(org_lines[line], org_ online all con- running secu- ized systems that manage our physical time-consuming and complicated private tinue to grow – rity services environment – can be potentiallylines[row]); lethal. is quite realistic. element_swap(result[line], result[row]); break; } if(status == proxy_swap){ and provide new were behind The third worrying trend is sizccethat cyber- At government and international THREAT = rows(); matrix< T, Contai- throw error::singular_matrix("mitrax::inverse<>()"); } } for(size_type row = line+1; row < opportunities for cybercriminals. the development of the most sophisti- crime is increasingly targeting mobile levels it’s very important to continue Recent events in the cyber domain – cated, stealthy and dangerous malware devices. It’s happening predominantlysize; ++row){efforts to tackle Tcybercrime, factor including = (org_lines[row][line] / org_lines[line][line]); for(size_type column from the Sony Pictures and JPMorgan designed to steal secrets and sometimes on the Android platform= on line+1; which those of column Interpol and Europol.< size; Infor- ++column){ org_lines[row][column] -= factor * org_lines[line][co- hacks to the theft of millions of credit even act as cyberweapons. The prob- we already see millions of samples of mation sharing is crucial, particularly card holders’ data from large retail- lem is that these technologies have malware, but other operatinglumn] systems; in} the for(size_type fight against the growing threat column = size_type(); column < size; ++column){ result[row][column] -= ers in the US plus dozens of complex been proliferating and today we’re are not immune. And with thener number of cyberterrorism. It’s > vital to raise original(quad_matrix); m < T, Container factor * result[line][column]; } } for(size_type column = line+1; column < size; ++column){ cyber-espionage campaigns run by vari- seeing an emergence of very danger- of ‘smart’ connected devices expected awareness of the threats posed by vari- ous governments all over the world – ous Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) to surge to the tens of billionsorg_lines[li as the ous forms ofne] cybercrime[column] among busi- /= org_lines[line][line]; } for(size_type column = size_type(); co- demonstrate the vulnerability of our criminal attacks. ‘Internet of Things’ rollslumn out, more < nessessize; and general ++column) users. And we {are result[line][column] /= org_lines[line][line]; } } for(size_type line networks and the data stored on them. Most cybercriminals today target devices – from smart TVs= tosize-1; smart more frequentlyline observing> size_type(); a shortage --line){ for(size_type row = size_type(); row < line; ++row){ If we put aside state sponsored espio- ordinary users almost indiscriminately, homes – can and most likely> will be of ITresult(quad_matrix.dimension()); security specialists, which makes { typena- nage campaigns, the development of trying to attack and infect as many com- hacked by criminals. T factor(org_lines[row][line]);investment in education in this area also for(size_type column = size_type(); column < size; ++column) cyberweapons by various militaries, and puters as possible. But a new generation The most generic recommendation essential for the security of tomorrow. hacktivism, the goal of cybercrime is to of ‘elite’ cybercriminals is now compe- applies to everyone, from ordinary{ result[row][column] com- Our dependence on computerized sys--= factor * result[line][column]; } } } return result; } template < ty- obtain profit. This is the main reason tent enough to attack banks and other puter users all the way up topename large busi- temsT, willtypename only grow as time Container goes by, > inline matrix< T, Container > const inverse(matrix< T, Contai- why tens of thousands of people all over financial institutions, so as to maximize nesses and governments: Cybersecurityner > const&which means thatquad_matrix){ the security of our typedef typename matrix< T, Container >::size_type size_type; ty- the world form groups that send spam, their profits – and the resulting damage. needs to be taken very seriously.me The networks shouldmatrix< be a key priority in matrix< T, Deterrence >::itera- create banking Trojans, or steal per- From a cyber-researcher’s point of view, attack on Sony Pictures showedpedef that typenamekeeping our world safe matrix< to permit us to T, Container >::row_proxy row_proxy; typedef typename matrix< T, sonal credentials. It’s a global criminal it’s very hard to tell the difference today even progressive, technology-orientedContainer enjoy all>::column_const_proxy::iterator the benefits of the new com- column_iterator; if(quad_matrix.rows() != quad_ma- industry that causes huge damage to the between a criminal APT and an APT run organizations with sufficient resources puter age. n trix.columns()){ throw error::not_quadratic("mitrax::inverse<>()", quad_matrix.dimension()); }tor size_type size iter= quad_matrix.rows(); = matrix< result.begin(); T, Container > original(quad_matrix); matrix< for(size_type i T, Container > result(quad_matrix.dimension()); { typename matrix< T, Container >::iterator iter = result.begin(); for(size_type i = size_type(); i < size; ++i){ *iter = identity< T >::multiplicative(); iter += size + 1; } } std::vector< row_proxy > org_lines; org_ lines.reserve(size);= size_type(); for(size_type line = size_type(); linei < size; < ++line){ size; org_lines. ++i){ *iter = iden- push_back(original.row(line)); } detail::proxy_swap_functor< row_proxy > proxy_swap; for(size_type line = size_type(); line < size; ++line){ if(org_lines[line][line] == identity::additive()){ T bool> status = proxy_swap;::multiplicative(); for(size_type row = line+1; row iter += < size; ++row){ if(org_lines[row][line] == identity< T >::additive()) continue; proxy_swap(org_lines[line], org_lines[row]); element_swap(result[line], result[row]);size break; } if(status == proxy_swap)+ { throw1; error::singular_matrix("mitrax::inverse<>()"); } } } } for(size_typestd::vector< row = line+1; row < size; ++row){ T factor = (org_ row_proxy > org_ lines; org_lines.reserve(size); for(size_ type line = size_type(); line < size; ++line) { org_lines.push_back(original.row(line)); } detail::proxy_swap_functor< row_proxy > proxy_ swap; for(size_type line = size_type(); line < size; ++line){ if(org_lines[line] Finally: freedom[line] == and identity< T >::additive()){ bo security combined. (The BMW M6 Convertible at Sixt)

sixt.com

290x260_Security_M6.indd 1 24.01.14 15:24 size_type; typedef typename matrix< T, Container >::row_proxy row_proxy; typedef typename ma- trix< T, Container >::column_const_proxy::iterator column_iterator; if(quad_matrix.rows() != quad_matrix.columns()){ throw error::not_quadratic("mitrax::inverse<>()", quad_matrix.dimen- sion()); } size_type size = quad_matrix.rows(); matrix< T, Container > original(quad_matrix); matrix< T, Container > result(quad_matrix.dimension()); { typename matrix< T, Container >::iterator iter = result.begin(); for(size_type i = size_type(); i < size; ++i){ *iter = identity< T >::multiplicative(); iter += size + 1; } } std::vector< row_proxy > org_lines; org_lines.reserve(size); for(size_type line = size_type(); line < size; ++line){ org_lines. push_back(original.row(line)); } detail::proxy_swap_functor< row_proxy > proxy_swap; for(size_ 36 type line = size_type(); line < size; ++line){February if(org_lines[line][line] 2015 == identity< T >::ad- 37 ditive()){ bool status = proxy_swap; for(size_type row = line+1; row < size; ++row){ if(org_ lines[row][line] == identity< T >::additive()) continue; proxy_swap(org_lines[line], org_lines[row]); element_swap(result[line], result[row]); break; } if(status == proxy_swap){ The throw Security Times • Cyber error::singular_matrix("mitrax::inverse<>()"); } } for(size_type row = line+1; row < size; ++row){ tainer T factor = (org_lines[row][line] >::row_proxy / org_lines[line][line]); for(size_type columnrow_proxy;Cybersecurity = typedef ty- line+1; column < size; ++column){ org_lines[row][column] -= factor * org_lines[line][column]; } for(size_type column = size_type(); column < size; ++column){ result[row][column] -= factor * result[line][column]; } } for(size_type column = line+1; column < size; ++column){norms org_ are overdue linespename[line][column] /= org_lines[line][line]; matrix< } for(size_type T,column = size_type();Container column < >::column_const_ size; ++column){ result[line][column] /= org_lines[line][line]; } } for(size_type line =The size- integrity of the Internet is critical to governments 1; line > size_type(); --line){ for(size_type row = size_type(); row < line; ++row){and private T citizens alike | By Matt Thomlinson factor(org_lines[row][line]); for(size_type column = size_type(); column < size; ++column){ n 1999, the United Nations particular – impacts which could result dors rather than to stockpile, buy, sell, actors as occurred after the discovery resultproxy::iterator[row][column] -= factor * result[line][column]; } } } return column_iterator; result;General } template Assembly recog- inline matrix< T, Container > const inverse(matrix const& quad_matrix){ typedef typename matrix< T, Container >::size_typeInoting the greatsize_type; societal bene- retary ty- William Hague began a global nerability Disclosure. These principles avoid creating a mass event. Regardless pedef typename matrix< T, Container >::row_proxy row_proxy; typedef typenamefits that it provides matrix::column_const_proxy::iterator column_iterator; if(quad_matrix.rows()same time expressing != seriousquad_ma- Munich Security Conference. In order to other software vendors across the ICT certain principles of customary inter- trix.rows() != quad_matrix.columns()){concern over the potential make meaningful progress, I believe this industry, and has been an effective strat- national law and the Law of Armed throw trix.columns()){ throw error::not_quadratic("mitrax::inverse<>()", quad_matrix.dimension());exploitation of technology discussion must take on a more concrete egy for multiple stakeholders to ensure Conflict that are inviolate, namely mini- for criminal and terrorist form regarding substance, process, and the protection of the cyber ecosystem. mizing harm to civilians and the prin- } size_type size = quad_matrix.rows(); matrix< T, Container > original(quad_matrix);purposes. In the time since, matrix< possible outcomes. The following pro- 3. States should exercise restraint in ciple of proportionality. States should T, Container > result(quad_matrix.dimension()); { typename matrix< T, Containerthe world has also>::iterator learned posed norms provide a framework for developing cyberweapons and should recognize that attacks targeting the that in addition to their role restraint and a foundation for resilience, ensure that any which are developed confidentiality, integrity, or availabil- itererro:: = result.begin(); for(size_type AD Vi = ANsize_type();CE i D< size; (++i){"mitrax: *iteras protectors = of identity()", are limited, precise, and not reusable. ity of ICT systems, services, and data quad_ >::multiplicative(); iter += size + 1; } } std::vector< row_proxy > org_lines;governments also org_lines. act as that appropriately balance their roles When govern- can have a mass reserve(size); for(size_type line = size_type(); line < size; ++line){exploiters org of cyberspace_lines.push_ for as users, protectors, and exploiters of ments build effect beyond national security and other cyberspace: cyber weapons, any reasonable reasons. Indeed, the United 1. States should not target ICT compa- back(original.row(line)); } detail::proxy_swap_functor< row_proxy > proxy_swap; for(size_type they should Matt Thomlinson is sense of propor- linetrix. = size_type(); line PERS< size; ++line){I if(org_lines[line][line]STENT ==dimension()); identity::addi- at nies to insert vulnerabilities (backdoors) ensure that their Microsoft Vice President } tionality.size_type least 41 countries who have or take actions that would otherwise execution is for Trustworthy Computing 6. States tive()){ bool status = proxy_swap; for(size_type row = line+1; row < size;publicly ++row){ acknowledged if(org_ undermine public trust in products and consistent with Security. should assist lines[row][line] == identity< T >::additive()) continue; proxy_swap(org_lines[line],some military plan- services.org_ Users of ICT products have the concepts of private sector ning for cyber come to expect that the companies that distinction, dis- efforts to microsoft lines[row]); element_swap(result[line], result[row]); break; } if(status == proxy_swap)activities. make these{ products will strive to con- crimination, and detect, contain, sizcce THREAT = rows();tinuously improve users’matrix< security and d i s t r i b u t i o n . T,respond to, and Contai- throw error::singular_matrix("mitrax::inverse<>()"); } } for(size_type row = line+1; row < privacy by improving the functionality The Tallinn Manual on the Interna- recover from events in cyberspace. size; ++row){ T factor = (org_lines[row][line] / org_lines[line][line]); for(size_type columnand reliability of these products. When tional Law Applicable to Cyber warfare, Although governments play an increas-

T nation states insert themselves into published in 2013 under the aegis of ingly important role in cyberspace, the

= line+1; column < size; ++column){ org_lines[row][column] -= factorD; S * org_lines[line][co- H In this this process by deploying their NATO determined that the principle first line of defense against cyber attacks

lumn]; } for(size_type column = size_type(); column < size; ++column){elpro result[row][column] -=

x shared and own code, it undermines of distinction – a “cardinal principle” remains the private sector, with its glob- /pi ner > original(quad_matrix);a tightly integrated product reliability, of the Law of Armed Conflictm – applies ally distributed< telemetry,T, situational Container factor * result[line][column]; } } for(size_type column = line+1;oli column < size; ++column){ t

fo domain, any escalation users’ privacy to cyber attacks. awareness, and well established inci- org_lines[line][column] /= org_lines[line][line]; } for(size_type columnof hostilities = couldsize_type(); result co- and secu- 4. States should commit to nonpro- dent response functions. Additionally, lumn < size; ++column){ result[line][column] /= org_lines[line][line];in }unintended } for(size_type – and even cata- line rity, liferation activities related to cyber governments should go one step further = size-1; line > size_type(); --line){ for(size_type row = size_type(strophic); row– consequences. < line; Unintended ++row){ weapons. As states increase investments and, when asked by the private sector, > result(quad_matrix.dimension());consequences of this scale could very in offensive cyber capabilities, care commit to assist with recovery and { typena- T factor(org_lines[row][line]); for(size_type column = size_type(); columneasily escalate < hostilities size; from the++column) key- must be taken to not prolifer- response needs that have global and board to kinetics, in the absence of and ulti- ate weapons or techniques regional implications. { result[row][column] -= factor * result[line][column]; } } } return result;normative limits } ontemplate such behaviors. inline matrix< T, Container > const inverse(matCybersecurity normsrix< will helpT, define Contai- public’s trust. Illustrative of this norms is one of the critical tasks of ner > const& quad_matrix){ typedef typename matrix< T, Container >::size_typeacceptable and unacceptablesize_type; state 2. ty-States should have concern, a vulner- our time, for governments, the private me matrix< matrix::itera- on the con- pedef typename matrix< T, Container >::row_proxy row_proxy; typedefrisks, typenafostering greaterme predictability, matrix< policy T,for handling product and by a cyberweapon fidentiality, integrity, and availability Container >::column_const_proxy::iterator column_iterator; if(quad_matrix.rows()and limiting the potential for!= the mostquad_ma- service vulnerabilities that reflects a can readily be of the technologies that make up cyber- problematic impacts, including – and in strong mandate to report them to ven- reused by other space. n trix.columns()){ throw error::not_quadratic("mitrax::inverse<>()", quad_matrix.dimension()); }tor size_type size iter= quad_matrix.rows(); = matrix< result.begin(); T, Container > original(quad_matrix); matrix< for(size_type i T, Container > result(quad_matrix.dimension()); { typename matrix< T, Container >::iterator iter = result.begin(); for(size_type i = size_type(); i < size; ++i){ *iter = identity< T >::multiplicative(); iter += size + 1; } } std::vector< row_proxy > org_lines; org_ lines.reserve(size);= size_type(); for(size_type line = size_type(); linei < size; < ++line){ size; org_lines. ++i){ *iter = iden- push_back(original.row(line)); } detail::proxy_swap_functor< row_proxy > proxy_swap; for(size_type line = size_type(); line < size; ++line){ if(org_lines[line][line] == identity::additive()){ T bool> status = proxy_swap;::multiplicative(); for(size_type row = line+1; row iter += < size; ++row){ if(org_lines[row][line] == identity< T >::additive()) continue; proxy_swap(org_lines[line], org_lines[row]); element_swap(result[line], result[row]);size break; } if(status == proxy_swap)+ { throw1; error::singular_matrix("mitrax::inverse<>()"); } } } } for(size_typestd::vector< row = line+1; row < size; ++row){ T factor = (org_ row_proxy > org_ lines; org_lines.reserve(size); for(size_ type line = size_type(); line < size; ++line) { org_lines.push_back(original.row(line)); } detail::proxy_swap_functor< row_proxy > proxy_ swap; for(size_type line = size_type(); line < size; ++line){ if(org_lines[line] [line] == identity< T >::additive()){ bo size_type; typedef typename matrix< T, Container >::row_proxy row_proxy; typedef typename ma- trix< T, Container >::column_const_proxy::iterator column_iterator; if(quad_matrix.rows() != quad_matrix.columns()){ throw error::not_quadratic("mitrax::inverse<>()", quad_matrix.dimen- sion()); } size_type size = quad_matrix.rows(); matrix< T, Container > original(quad_matrix); matrix< T, Container > result(quad_matrix.dimension()); { typename matrix< T, Container >::iterator iter = result.begin(); for(size_type i = size_type(); i < size; ++i){ *iter = identity< T >::multiplicative(); iter += size + 1; } } std::vector< row_proxy > org_lines; org_lines.reserve(size); for(size_type line = size_type(); line < size; ++line){ org_lines. push_back(original.row(line)); } detail::proxy_swap_functor< row_proxy > proxy_swap; for(size_ type line = size_type(); line < size; ++line){ if(org_lines[line][line] == identity< T >::ad- ditive()){ bool status = proxy_swap; for(size_type row = line+1; row < size; ++row){ if(org_ lines[row][line] == identity< T >::additive()) continue; proxy_swap(org_lines[line], org_lines[row]); element_swap(result[line], result[row]); break; } if(status == proxy_swap){ throw error::singular_ matrix("mitrax::inverse<>()"); } } for(size_type row = line+1; row < size; ++row){ T factor = (org_lines[row][line] / org_lines[line][line]); for(size_type column = line+1; column < size; ++column){ org_lines[row][column] -= factor * org_lines[line][column]; } for(size_type 38 February 2015 column = size_type(); column < size; ++column){ result[row][column] -= factor * result[line] [column];tainer } } for(size_type column = line+1;>::row_proxy column < size; ++column){ org_lines[line][column] row_proxy; typedef ty- /= org_lines[line][line]; } for(size_type column = size_type(); column < size; ++column){ result[line][column] /= org_lines[line]The[line]; Security Times } } • Cyberfor(size_type line = size-1; line > size_ type(); --line){ for(size_type row = size_type(); row < line; ++row){ T factor(org_lines[row] [line]); for(size_type column = size_type(); column < size; ++column){ result[row][column] -= penamefactor * result[line][column]; }matrix< } } return result; } template < typename T, T, typename ContainerContai- >::column_const_ ner > inline matrix< T, Container > const inverse(matrix< T, Container > const& quad_matrix) { typedef typename matrix< T, Container >::size_type size_type; typedef typename matrix< T, Container >::row_proxy row_proxy; typedef typename matrix< T, Container >::column_const_ proxy::iterator column_iterator; if(quad_matrix.rows() != quad_matrix.columns()){ throw proxy::iteratorerror::not_quadratic("mitrax::inverse<>()", quad_matrix.dimension()); } size_typecolumn_iterator; size = quad_ if(quad_ma- matrix.rows(); matrix< T, Container > original(quad_matrix); matrix< T, Container > result(quad_ matrix.dimension()); { typename matrix< T, Container >::iterator iter = result.begin(); for(size_type i = size_type(); i < size; ++i){ *iter = identity< T >::multiplicative(); iter trix.rows()+= size + 1; } } std::vector< row_proxy > org_lines; org_lines.reserve(size);!= quad_matrix.columns()){ for(size_type throw line = size_type(); line < size; ++line){ org_lines.push_back(original.row(line)); } detail::proxy_swap_functor< row_proxy > proxy_swap; for(size_type line = size_type(); line < size; ++line){ if(org_lines[line][line] == identity< T >::additive()){ bool status = proxy_ swap; for(size_type row = line+1; row < size; ++row){ if(org_lines[row][line] == identity< T erro::>::additive()) continue; F proxy_swap(org_lines[line],LYING org_lines[row]);("mitrax: element_ :inverse<>()", quad_ swap(result[line], result[row]); break; } if(status == proxy_swap){ throw error::singular_ matrix("mitrax::inverse<>()"); } } for(size_type row = line+1; row < size; ++row){ T factor = (org_lines[row][line] / org_lines[line][line]); for(size_type column = line+1; column < matraixsize; ++column){ org_lines[row][column] K -=I factorTTE * org_lines[line][column]N ension());; } for(size_type } size_type size = column = size_type(); column < size; ++column){ result[row][column] -= factor * result[line] [column]; } } for(size_type column = line+1; column < size; ++column){ org_lines[line][column] /= org_lines[line][line]; } for(size_type column = size_type(); column < size; ++column){ result[line][column] /= org_lines[line][line]; } } for(size_type line = size-1; line > size_ quad_matrix.rows();type(); --line){ for(size_type row = size_type(); row < line; ++row){ T factor(org_lines[row] matrix< T, Container > [line]); for(size_type column = size_type(); column < size; ++column){ result[row][column] -= factor * result[line][column]; } } } return result; } template < typename T, typename Contai- ner > inline matrix< T, Container > const inverse(matrix< T, Container > const& quad_matrix) { typedef typename matrix< T, Container >::size_type size_type; typedef typename matrix< T, original(quad_matrix);Container >::row_proxy row_proxy; typedef typename matrix< T, Container >::column_const_ matrix < T, Contai- proxy::iterator column_iterator; if(quad_matrix.rows() != quad_matrix.columns()){ throw error::not_quadratic("mitrax::inverse<>()", quad_matrix.dimension()); } size_type size = quad_ matrix.rows(); matrix< T, Container > original(quad_matrix); matrix< T, Container > result(quad_ nermatrix.dimension()); > { typenameresult(quad_matrix.dimension()); matrix< T, Container >::iterator iter = result.begin(); { ty- for(size_type i = size_type(); i < size; ++i){ *iter = identity< T >::multiplicative(); iter

+= size + 1; } } std::vector< row_proxy > org_lines; org_lines.reserve(size);fotolia/pixelproHD; ST for(size_type line = size_type(); line < size; ++line){ org_lines.push_back(original.row(line)); } detail::proxy_swap_functor< row_proxy > proxy_swap; for(size_type line = size_type(); line < pesize; ++line){name if(org_lines[line] matrix<[line] == identity< T >::additive()){ matrix< bool status = proxy_ T, Deterrence >::ite- swap; for(size_type row = line+1; row < size; ++row){ if(org_lines[row][line] == identity< T >::additive()) continue; proxy_swap(org_lines[line], org_lines[row]); element_swap(result[line], result[row]); break; } if(status == pro- xy_swap){ throw error::singular_matrix("mitrax::inverse<>()"); } } for(size_type row = line+1; row < size; ++row){ T factor = rator(org_lines[row][line]The / org_lines[line][line]); Great iter for(size_type Cybergame column = line+1;= column < result.begin(); size; ++column){ org_lines[row][column] -= factor * for(size_type i A new dawn in strategic Internet security | By Sandro Gaycken

n the cyberworld, 2014 was as Iranian dissidents. It wasn’t paigns. Gathering control data foreboding a new kind of cyber- – a Korean accent, dominated by the Snowden the first Tehran-driven hacking is more often the reconnaissance conflict in South Asia. attack tools used in revelations, or rather their attack. Since being attacked by stage of a sabotage attack. Ger- In August 2014, “Opera- previous attacks from aftermath. It was interest- Stuxnet in 2011, Iran has devel- many even actually suffered one tion Machete” was discovered Pyongyang against Iing to see how different nations = size_type();oped and demonstrated its skills such attack in 2014: A competent in Latin America, after a local South Korea, the use iof < size; ++i){ *iter = iden- reacted, what they considered repeatedly. In 2014 it conducted saboteur hacked into a German businessman suspected his laptop some North Korean infra- relevant, and what they did to at least three campaigns. steel mill, penetrated the office might have been hacked by Chi- structure, and the “cui address the many issues the case Flying Kitten was the first. network and moved successfully nese cyberspies during a visit to bono” test: the blockade of brought up. Much of it was and It was neither highly sophisti- on to the production network, China. Analysts from Kaspersky a movie featuring an assas- is trial and error. cated nor particularly unique, causing significant chaos and Labs who examined his computer sination plot against North Snowden aside, the various declared the Chinese innocent for Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un. tity once. The hack was programmed::multiplicative(); The hack was stylized into an iter += dents in 2014 serve to underline New players in Spanish and focused mainly attempt to attack and censor the that we have only just begun on government and military US from afar. President Barack to acknowledge and tackle the emerged on the field, networks inVenezuela, Ecuador Obama publicly accused North problem. Many attacks exhib- and Columbia, as well as some Korea. But there is growing evi- ited new features, patterns and attacking new countries critical industries. It lacked the dence that an insider – the classic methods to penetrate and abuse and institutions sophistication known by now disgruntled employee – did the sizeIT and the Internet. These recent + 1; }from the more able attackers.} But job and conspiredstd::vector< with movie- row_proxy > org_ campaigns differed from earlier it seems to have been highly effec- piracy activists. This has not been biased ones not only in regard to tacti- in different ways. tive. Machete might have been entirely confirmed yet either, but cyber- cal and technical details. They inside Latin America for some the evidence is more solid and analysis differed in their fundamentals but it was successful on many even some destruction. A blast four to six years, undetected and credible than the story about combined as well. targets – a first example of lesser furnace could not be safely shut undisturbed, with 778 victimized North Korea wanting to attack with a little The cyberworld is used to five powers effectively infiltrating down, badly damaging the whole institutions in total. the US by leaking Hollywood cyber-hyste- lines;or six cyber superpowers fighting high-security targets. The second org_lines.reserve(size);facility. Summing up, 2014 has seen celebrity phone numbers. ria can escalate for(size_ it out amongst each other: China, campaign was called “News- These first attempts to sabotage many new actors, with new With the Sony-North Korea quickly into physical, the US, Russia, Israel, and occa- caster,” another targeted espio- industrial sites are worrisome, not methods and a diversifying set incident, three other important kinetic conflict. Obama’s accusa- sionally, to a lesser extent, France nage attack. But most worrisome least because they are a novum in of interests in new targets. They facts emerged. First, the problem tions were unfounded and far too and Britain. These actors usually was the discovery of the third the IT-security world. The pro- demonstrated a clear global of attribution is still unsolved. rash in an uncertain escalatory attack the same kinds of targets, campaign, “Operation Cleaver,” ducers, administrators and users growth of capabilities in cyber Digital fingerprints can always be environment. with more or less the same esca- which collected control data of production-related software offense, ease in acquiring at least forged. Authenticity cannot even Third, the incident made it typelatory patterns (a little media about criticalline infrastructures are familiar with Stuxnet. But few =some first abilities insize_type(); this field, be defined in this area. Nothing obvious that false flag operations line < size; ++line) excitement, vague government and aircraft. Operation Cleaver of them reformed their IT pro- and a strong strategic interest has really changed in this respect, are very easy and quite possible statements and a not too angry revealed a stronger interest in cesses thoroughly and – whether in cyberespionage and in cyberspace. This was clear in diplomatic note is a common sabotage rather than espionage. it be their capacities, their meth- sabotage. More actors theory, but now it has been dem- mix). But in 2014, new players In Germany, the Dragonfly odologies or their technologies – will likely emerge in onstrated in practice. If a disgrun- emerged on the field, attacking group successfully infiltrated a they still have a lot of homework 2015, with an even Sandro Gaycken tled employee can provoke an new countries and institutions producer of industrial control to do. This is disconcerting. more diverse set of is Senior Researcher exchange of blows among nation Cybersecurity and Cyberstrategy, { in different orgways, and with vary- software, and_lines.push_back(original.row(line infected the origi- Other countries have also targets and activities. European School of Management states – what will a professional )); } ing consequences – an impor- nal mastercopy of the company’s joined the great cybergame. India In the fall of 2014, and Technology (ESMT) Berlin. secret service be able to fabricate? tant strategic evolution on many product with an attack virus and Pakistan launched cyberes- the discovery of the The final lesson of 2014 is levels. called Havex – which in turn pionage campaigns against each Sony Entertainment this: There are many new actors FU Berlin The detection of new entities was shipped and installed with other, starting in 2013 and con- hack shocked the IT and many more will join the began as early as January 2014 every copy and every update of tinuing throughout 2014. While world. Terabytes of cybergame. But simply observing with Crowdstrike’s observation the original software. We still the Indian attack was rumored sensitive internal communica- despite the hype about “Threat and analyzing them to initiate xy_ detail:of a group called “Flying Kitten” know little about Havex, only :proxyrather than detected, the Paki- tions, records of dirty tricks, _swap_functor pro (or “Saffron Rose” as they were that it had a high level of sophis- stani response was discovered as yet unscreened movies, and That begs the question: Was it Any insights gained must pro- dubbed by another security com- tication and that is was solely and described as “Operation databases with celebrity phone really Iran, India, Pakistan and vide the foundation for mean- pany, FireEye). This group was interested in industrial comput- Arachnophobia,” using an attack numbers and similar data were Latin America who were all iden- ingful cybersecurity innovation, swap;assumed to be Iranian, targeting ers. Itsfor(size_type final aim is not entirely called “Bitterbug.” It had all the stolen and in part widely publi- tified as perpetrators line last year? not half-cocked accusations = of size_type(); line < size; ++line){ aerospace and defense compa- clear, but attacks of this kind marks of a sophisticated mili- cized. North Korea’s fingerprints Secondly, overzealous but blame that can lead to further if(org_lines[line][line]nies around the world as well are usually not just spying cam- tary cyberespionage attempt, appeared to be all over the hack underqualified or commercially escalation. == nidentity< T >::additive()){ bo February 2015 tainer >::row_proxy 39row_proxy; typedef ty- pename matrix< T, Container >::column_const_ Securingoriginal(quad_matrix); The Security Times • Cyber matrix < T, Contai digital terrainproxy::iterator column_iterator; if(quad_ma- The Sony hack is a textbook example of the fog of cyberwar. A view from India |erro:: By Samir Saran CYBER ("mitrax::inverse<>()", qud_ma-

he whole incident is rity infrastructure is to protect nation. Finding a countries are devel- a telling manifestation its people, its nation-state, its balance between oped. of the many aspects of economic interests withintrix.di its ter- surveillance and INDIA ()); These} questions –size_type size = quad_ cybersecurity: There is ritory and globally. To this end, privacy in order to and more – were at Tthe allegation of a state-spon- India’s ambitious ‘Digital India’ secure citizens with- the core of the debates sored international incident by project, which has committed an out infringing their at CyFy 2014 – the North Korea and the promise investment of $21 billionmatrix.rows(); with rights is the order of matrix ner > of a ‘proportional response’ by the stated ambition to secure last- the day. But countries are Internet Governance and the United States of America. mile connectivity and effective struggling to achieve this Cyber Security hosted by the The Sony hack brings to mind e-governance for every citizen, equilibrium. Observer Research Founda- the question of state behavior in is only a partial response to the Most recently, the UK – to the tion. India’s Deputy National cyberspace; the threat to business enormous challenges result(quad_matrix.dimension());facing the horror of privacy activists every- Security Advisor emphasized { typena- advancing public-private cooper- Indian subcontinent in its digital where – has come out in favor of the importance of international ation in combating such attacks; endeavors. banning encryption to intercept in this need to exam- norm-building and central role and the question of motive – an The second question relates to communications so as to ensure regard? Gov- ine what can best of the UN Group of Govern- assault on the freedom of expres- the fundamental tensionme between security matrix::itera- sion, as opposed to the more development and security. This is also the need for accountabil- to understand the range, consequences’ of state “the Indian position on these predictable motivations of theft, holds especially true for devel- ity of state intelligence agencies. frequency and sever- behaviour. For example, issues will continue to evolve…”, terrorism and war. oping countries like India. They They can quite easily infringe ity of the attacks on the Stuxnet virus, which adding that this group of experts Other countries, including on citizens’ personal their countries unless exploited a weakness in “is a useful forum, but it should India, have observed the con- tor iter = result.begin(); for(size_type i = communications in critical infrastructure the Microsoft operat- be made more representative.” sequences with keen interest. their zeal to catch the operators and private ing system, affected 18 India’s Minister of Communica- This includes the disruptions in Samir Saran is Vice President at bad guys. Therefore enterprises share this percent of computers in tions and Information Technol- the Observer Research Foundation North Korea’s Internet connec- and Chairman of CYFY – a strong mechanism information with them. Indonesia and 8 percent ogy echoed a similar thought tivity that followed immediately Thesize_type(); India Conference on Internet needs to be put in In many countries confi- in i India, causing< these at CyFysize; – “…this unhindered ++i){ *iter = iden- after the attack was successfully Governance and Cyber Security. place to ensure they dence building measures countries great finan- growth of networks of infected attributed to the authoritarian are encouraged to act are necessary to develop cial loss as they had to computers across the world – North Korean state by the US. responsibly. this relationship. upgrade their systems to how do we propose to address private How does this episode play out tity given that ::multiplicative();counter the virus. this problem in the absence of iter += against all the narratives built to for governments, pri- attacks do not only At the same time, no global cyberspace norms to regu- understand and respond to cyber are witnessing rapid internet pro- vate sector companies and civil originate from criminals conversation about cyber late and guide responsible behav- security threats? liferation, a phenomenon that society, including those fighting and terrorists, an under- security can be complete iour in cyberspace?” At the outset, there are larger goes hand-in-hand with cheap for individuals’ rights, to cooper- standing – ‘norms’ – of without addressing online Which brings us back to the questions to consider. devices with questionablesize secu- ate in creating robust cyber+ secu- state1; behavior in cyber-} }terror. Onlinestd::vector< terror net- row_proxy > org_ incident involving Sony, North The first is the fundamental rity standards and a digitally rity frameworks. Key questions space need to be fleshed works, aided by the mul- Korea and the United States. It understanding that access to naïve population susceptible to on the quality of interconnectiv- out. This could be done tiplicity of communica- shines the torch on cyber secu- the Internet is an essential fea- hackers, thieves and phishers ity and appropriate mechanisms by way of universal tion networks over the rity, state behavior, damages, ture of security; that without alike. They will be susceptiblelines; for securing critical infrastruc- multilateralorg_lines.reserve(size); agree- Internet, have become a responses and attacks on free- for(size_ connectivity, the citizen is not to sophisticated attacks as well, ture have to be addressed. What ments (desirable but common cause of con- dom of expression. Do we have plugged into the system, as he as they build up their capacity. are the costs of cyber security and unlikely) or by consen- cern for individuals and a blueprint or a road map to cannot engage digitally with The inevitably linked trilemma how will they be shared? Who sus between like-minded states alike. This growing respond to such developments? either his fellow citizenry or the of security, privacy andtype surveil- will define and how linewill we all states who wish to set= size_type();threat cannot be coun- Maybe not – and therefore 2015 line < size; ++line) state. After all, security cannot lance, in the face of complex agree to what is the optimal level rules of engagement tered unless solutions that will be a vital year for finding be for security’s sake. It must be challenges has raised many-lay- of security in cyberspace? What (less inclusive but more enable real-time infor- common ground to keep the digi- based on the premise that secu- ered problems in need{ of exami- isorg the role of the private_lines.push_back(original.row(line sector efficient). Countries also mation sharing between tal world secure. n )); } detail::proxy_swap_functor< row_proxy > pro- xy_swap; for(size_type line = size_type(); Bavarian Ministry of line < size; ++line){Economic Aairs if(org_lines[line][line] == identity< and Media, Energy and Technology

My home is my castle. We know how to secure your data.

IT security infl uences all areas of application where digital solutions and business models are important. Bavaria supports this future-oriented sector with funding and the establishment of a world-class competence centre for IT security together with the Fraunhofer AISEC. This is good news for players in Bavaria, such as Kaspersky, Symantec, Giesecke & Devrient and many others.

www.invest-in-bavaria.com

IIB0061_Anzeige_SecurityTimes_290x260_RZ.indd 1 26.01.15 16:11 Deutsche Bank Corporate Banking & Securities

Our ideas help businesses take off

When the only constant is change, ideas create a way forward. At Deutsche Bank, we deliver results for our clients by embracing change and the thinking that harnesses it. Visit db.com and turn ideas into results today.

This advertisement has been approved and/or communicated by Deutsche Bank AG. Without limitation this advertisement does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to enter into any transaction neither does it constitute the offer of securities. The offer of any services and/or securities in any jurisdiction by Deutsche Bank AG or by its subsidiaries and/or affiliates will be made in accordance with appropriate local legislation and regulation. Deutsche Bank AG is authorised under German Banking Law (competent authority: BaFin – Federal Financial Supervisory Authority) and authorised and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority. Details about the extent of Deutsche Bank AG’s authorisation and regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority are available on request. Investments are subject to investment risk, including market fluctuations, regulatory change, counterparty risk, possible delays in repayment and loss of income and principal invested. The value of investments can fall as well as rise and you might not get back the amount originally invested at any point in time. © Copyright Deutsche Bank 2015.

1501_3422_DB_ANZ_AIRPORT_II_290x530.indd 1 29.01.15 08:16