A recent Unesco study observed that the basin has everything necessary for a bright future. Water availability is not a limiting factor for reaching the socio-economic development objectives in terms of health, nutrition and wealth. This article examines why.

The Aral Sea basin belongs to the most ancient centres of civilisation, with irrigat- ed agriculture existing already by  . Two main rivers – the southern and the northern Syr Darya – empty their water in a large closed lake, the Aral Sea. Since World War II, highly wasteful irriga- tion has literally consumed  percent of the infl ow, leaving only  percent to feed the Aral Sea, which has responded by loos- ing  percent of its volume and  percent of its surface area. The salinity has increased from  to % Early Holocene and late Holocene palaeohydrographical systems of and Kazakhstan: in the Aral Sea, and the lake has separated A – Paskevich stage; B – the Great Aral stage; C – stage of the fi rst natural discharge throw into three lakes: two larger and more saline to the Caspian Sea; D – stage of the fi rst antropogenic dessiccation. Areas of irrigation southern lakes, and a less saline northern are shaded.

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lake. More than  species have disappeared caused the Aral Sea to lower and split into were irrigated. The Fergana is an arid area from the water fl ora and fauna. two lakes, causing the next ecological crisis. in the midstream Syr Darya basin and be- longs to the central cotton zone – from time The Aral Sea has dried up before The present ecological crisis is the immemorial the place for settled farming The Aral Sea owes its existence to a change third one and ancient culture of local tribes. By , in climate some , years ago which What distinguishes the present third ecolog- almost all the fertile lands of the valley had went from dry and cold to warm and damp. ical crisis from the two earlier ones is the in- been brought under irrigation. It had by Through the millennia, both salinity and volvement of chemical pollution from min- then become one of the most densely popu- surface level have been controlled by climat- eral fertilisers, insecticides, pesticides, de- lated areas in Central Asia. The situation ic and hydromorphological factors, caus- foliants and even military contamination. was similar in the Amu Darya River, where ing repeated changes in runoff as the cli- While ecological problems are not new to the Karakum canal command area in Turk- mate has shifted between phases of abun- the Aral basin, what is new is the chemical menistan, Karshi, and the Bukhara system dent rain and aridity. Local tectonic activi- pollution which severely reduces the usa- in Uzbekistan were developed for agricul- ties have also contributed. bility of the river water. The collector net- tural production. Historical investigations can’t give a clear work for drainage water from irrigated areas picture of the time table of all changes in brings pollutants back to the rivers, which Twin challenges connections between the Amu Darya and are polluted already when they enter in Ka- Large efforts are now ongoing to increase by the Syr Darya, the Aral Sea and the Caspian zakhstan and Uzbekistan, where the dete-  percent the infl ow into the Aral Sea by Sea, but they indicate that the rivers tem- rioration escalates further. Since the rivers minimising unproductive water losses. The porarily began releasing waters in different are used as the main source of drinking water plan is to develop a green ribbon of wetlands directions starting  years ago during supply, the health of the population refl ects along the coast. The general goal is to reduce an extended rainy period. At that time the a disastrous situation which is especially se- the total water demands in the next  years Aral Sea was supposedly four to fi ve times vere for maternal health and infant mortal- by some  percent, irrespective of the popu- larger than in the mid  s. A similar devi- ity. lation growth. In reality, this means bring- ation took place at least four times through- The depleted infl ow to the Aral Sea ing per capita use down from the present   out history. results from extremely wasteful irrigation , m per year to some ,m per year. Later, human activities began to infl u- due to trench irrigation in  percent of the In the Aral Sea, a dam is planned between ence the infl ow. Irrigation introduced by hu- irrigated area, and is refl ected in a per capita the lakes by which the northern lake can be  mans dried the Aral Sea even further than water use of over , m per year. Irriga- protected from further salinisation. today and caused its fi rst ecological crisis. tion was vastly expanded in Soviet times, What adds strongly to the enormous In the s, irrigation advances once more when huge steppe areas like The Fergana challenges is the unexpected collapse of

4  the in , which overnight ject of common ownership by all riparians, lease to the sea coast of  km annually. transformed the national basin into a tran- and its development, protection and use But, the agricultural dominance of the ba- snational river basin. Today, it is shared should be carried out on the basis of inter- sin societies makes it unrealistic to restore between fi ve countries: the Amy Darya ba- state agreements according to national re- the Aral Sea to pre-s state. sin is shared by upstream Tadjikistan, mid- quests and regional interests. ICWC is currently involved in an inter- stream and downstream and state water management program, the Aral Uzbekistan, and the Syr Darya basin is Future outlook Sea Basin Management Program (), shared by upstream Kyrgystan, midstream Importantly, there is no physical water which enjoys strong political support from Uzbekistan and Tadjikistan and down- shortage in the Aral Sea basin. The river ba- top-level offi cials in the new states. All fi ve  stream Kasakhstan. Each country now fac- sin is  million km large and hosts a popu- states aim at fi nding economically suitable es a deep socio-economic transition through lation of  million, expected to increase to and environmentally acceptable common shifting from a centrally planned to a mar-  million already by . The renewable approaches towards stable water supply.  ket-oriented economy. blue water resources amount to  km per Hydrologically-based models of  plan- Just one year later, in , the countries year, which means a water crowding level of ning zones are under development.   agreed to respect the historical uses of wa-  people per million m per year ( m Professor Vladimir Dukhovny at the ter. The two existing river basin authorities per year), the equivalent of many European Scientifi c Information Centre of  has for the subbasins would continue to oper- countries. The climate, however, is arid in proposed that the “ecologically permissible ate, but now under the control a new In- large parts of the basin, which means that water withdrawal” – taken as the water terstate Commission of Water Coordina- agriculture has to be irrigated. withdrawal of the riparian countries in  tion (). The Aral Sea itself and its del- Pilot plot experiments by  suggest – will be seen as a guaranteed amount free tas were defi ned as an independent sixth that the wastewater water consumption in of charge. Withdrawals above that level will riparian with its own water rights. All trans- trench irrigation can be reduced by %. have to be paid by each country to a com- boundary water has been declared the ob- That would allow an additional water re- mon regional Fund of the Aral Sea Basin, the rationale being that this is what caused the present “harm”. In calculating the coun- try shares, their respective water use will be compared to a potential water productivity. Other principles are also under discussion, such as providing incentives for water con- servation, uniform water resources distribu- tion, sharing of maintenance costs for the water infrastructure, etc.

Final remark

cademy of Science Since the area suffered severely under the Soviet regime and collapse, and the failure

ussian A of land and water management in the area that followed, the goal is now a dramatic in- ladin, R crease of water and land productivity along ick A with expansion of industrial production.

tesy N Reuse of return fl ow of drainage water will be an important component in the water conservation efforts. ations cour Integrated water resources manage- llustr I ment, including public participation, hy- Medieval, in the middle of the 20th century, modern and possible future hydrographical systems in drographic boundary management, and Central Asia and Kazakhstan. Areas of irrigation are shaded. the creation of water user associations have started with the support of the Swiss de- More About the Aral Sea velopment aid agency in Fergana Valley. Spreading  in other parts of the Aral Want to learn more about the Aral Sea? In August , ongoing Sea basin will b important . framework programs, research work and future-looking method- In the end, the efforts hope to achieve ologies to reach water security in the Aral Sea region were presented what the recent Unesco study observed: at a seminar held during the World Water Week in Stockholm. The that the Aral Sea basin, indeed, has a bright seminar was co-convened by the Swedish section of the United Na- future. tions Development Fund for Women (), the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, and the Stockholm International Water In- This article by Professor Malin Falkenmark of SIWI stitute, The seminar report is available free of charge as an Adobe is the product of a close cooperation with Pro- Acrobat  document on SIWI ’s home page, www.siwi.org. fessor Vladimir Dukhovny and Professor Vadim To visit the Interstate Commission of Water Coordination Sokolov of the Interstate Commission of Water home page, which has many freely available resources as well as links to Coordination (ICWC). other key programs and activities related to the Aral Sea, visit www.icwc-aral.uz. ■

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