F a S T Update Ethiopia Special Update January to June 2006

F A S T Update

Ethiopia

Spec i al Update

January t o June 2 0 0 6 T

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Contents

Country Stability and Conflictive Domestic Events 3

Conflictive and Coop erative International Events 1 2

O utlook 2 0

Ap p endix : M ap of M aj or Conflicts (J anuary – J une 2 0 0 6 ) 2 1

Acronyms 2 2

Th e F AST International Early W arning Program 2 3

F AST U p date Subscrip tion: w w w .sw issp eace.org/ fast/ subscrip tion_ form.asp

Monitoring activities in E th iop ia h ave tem p oraril y b een su sp end ed since J anu ary 2 0 0 6 d u e to th e increased cu rb ing of p ress f reed om s and resu l ting ef f ects on ou r L ocal I nf orm ation N etw ork . C onseq u entl y , th ere is no d ata set f or th e p eriod u nd er review . W e h ave, h ow ever, incl u d ed in th is S p ecial U p d ate, a d etail ed l ist of events th at are p ertinent to th e th em es covered as b ack grou nd to th e q u al itative anal y sis.

Contact F AST International: Country Ex p ert: Ph one: + 2 7 1 2 3 4 6 9 5 4 5 Anonymous F ax : + 2 7 1 2 4 6 0 0 9 9 7 mailto: F AST@ sw issp eace.ch w w w .sw issp eace.org/ fast w w w .issafrica.org

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Country Stability and Conf lic tiv e D om e stic E v e nts After th e turmoil of th e p ost:election p eriod, immediate th reats to th e country' s stability h ave considerably abated. V igorous, if not ruth less counter:measures by th e government security agencies brough t militant, but basically non: violent civic unrest related to th e contested outcome of th e M ay 2 0 0 5 elections under control. B y and large th e general p ublic did not follow calls by diasp ora op p osition q uarters for renew ed camp aigns of militant civil disobe: dience. In contrast, violent activities by op p osition p arties sh arp ly increased. A string of bomb attack s in Addis Ababa and some oth er tow ns caused considerable loss of lives and p rop erty. Actively sup p orted by Eritrea, various armed op p osition movements increased th eir infiltration and activities in p erip h eral areas. Alth ough th e government security organs could not p revent th e bomb attack s, th ey succeeded in dismantling several urban underground cells. In p erip h eral areas group s of armed figh ters w ere destroyed and armed dissidence k ep t under control, but not eradicated. G iven th e h igh degree of disaffection, p articularly among th e urban youth , w h ich is driving grow ing numbers into militancy, and Eritrean sup p ort for th e violent op p osition, th ere is a strong p ossibility th at bomb attack s and armed infiltration into th e p erip h eral areas may increase. N everth eless, th e negative imp act on Country Stability is limited and w ill not th reaten th e survival of th e government. B y and large th e ruling p arty h as regained control over th e unrest and retained its h old on p ow er. Th e main legal op p osition p arties took up th eir seats in th e national p arliament and th e regional councils and signed th e ruling p arty’s code of conduct. Th e cap acity of th e legal op p osition to seriously confront th e ruling p arty and to develop a coh erent p olitical alternative is severely curtailed by p ersistent and deep p rogrammatic differences. In th e sh ort:term th is benefits th e ruling p arty, but in th e long:term th is h as a negative imp act on th e overall p olitical stability of th e country. An ineffective and deep ly divided legal op p osition creates op p ortunities for insurgent op p osition group s. In sp ite of rep eated calls from th e international community to release th e p olitical leaders of CU D, academics and j ournalists w h o are still in detention, th e government h as refused to release th em. F or th e time being, th e government is unlik ely to relent on th is issue and th e case of th ese detainees w ill remain a central issue in domestic p olitics and continue to be an irritant in Eth iop ia' s relations w ith th e international community. In various regions of th e country communal conflicts over access to p olitical p ow er and control over scarce resources remain unresolved, some of th em erup ting into op en violence. G iven th at eth nically defined p olitical constituencies, th e inter:communal resource and p ow er conflicts ex isting in various p arts of th e country could p otentially become h igh ly p oliticised, as th ey become intertw ined w ith general p olitical (and p ost:election) conflicts betw een th e government and th e op p osition. Conflicts betw een indigenous local communities and immigrant communities h ave been (and w ill continue to be) esp ecially volatile as th ey touch sensitive issues of regionalisation, language use and minority righ ts. Arising from th e incomp lete regionalisation of th e country th ere is a risk of furth er unresolved communal conflicts erup ting into op en violence, but th e risk th at th ey w ill th reaten th e overall stability of th e country is low . Since 1 9 9 2 th e state:media h as follow ed a p olicy of not rep orting on violent conflicts. How ever, during th e p eriod under review , th ey indirectly confirmed th e occurrence of violent conflicts at various p laces by w ay of rep orts on p eace conferences and meetings at w h ich resolutions w ere p assed against "anti:p eace forces". O p p osition media h ave often p ut forw ard ex aggerated rep orts of government:sp onsored violence and of armed clash es betw een government and op p osition forces. Irresp ective of facts, th ey attribute every violent clash betw een eth nic or tribal communities to w h at th ey allege is a deliberate divide and rule p olicy by th e EPRDF . Indep endent confirmation of th ese events is difficult to obtain. Due to th ese deficiencies of rep orting, th ere is no comp lete p icture of violence occurring in Eth iop ia during th e p eriod under rep ort. Th ose governmental, op p ositional, and th ird p arty sources th at w ere accessible w ere comp lemented w ith information directly gath ered from individual Eth iop ian sources. Th ere is a continuing risk th at militant Islamic circles w ill try to ex p loit local, national, and even international issues to increase th eir audience and organisational footh old w ith in th e Eth iop ian M uslim communities. Ap art from th e material losses associated w ith th e bomb attack s and some armed op p ositional activities in p erip h eral regions, th e economy did not suffer as a result of conflictive p olitical events during th is p eriod. A bump er h arvest due to w ell:distributed and timely rainfall in main crop p roducing areas, increased use of fertiliser and imp roved seeds, rap id control of migratory p ests, and increased area under cultivation led to an all:time h igh in food p roduction. G rain p rices w h ich remained h igh after th e h arvest w as beneficial to surp lus crop p roducing h ouseh olds, but negatively affected p oorer h ouseh olds th at are net buyers of grain. Th ese w ere p artly due to grain p urch ases made by coop eratives and unions, local p urch ases of food aid, increased informal cross:border trade and a

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staggered release of crop s to th e mark et by farmers and coop eratives. Successive years of drough t, failed agricultural seasons, livestock loss, asset dep letion and ch ronic structural w eak nesses culminated th is year in th e need to assist ap p rox imately 9 .8 million p eop le including 2 .6 million emergency food recip ients and anoth er 7 .2 million th rough th e Productive Safety N et Program (PSN P). A series of ex ternal factors h ave influenced th e situation on th e ground : p ersistent dry conditions in drough t affected areas; h eavy rains w h ich contributed to sp oradic flooding and imp eded h umanitarian access; h igh p rices of basic foodstuffs, livestock , and agricultural inp uts th at rose dramatically; and security conditions th at created disrup tions in th e distribution of emergency food and non: food relief assistance most notably in th e Somali region. In sp ite of massive government interventions, including resettlement, Eth iop ia' s agriculture is still largely dep endent on rainfall and tech nologically back w ard. Th ere is a continued h igh risk of food:insecurity for large sectors of th e p op ulation. Continuing h igh levels of p op ulation grow th as w ell as th e ravages of th e HIV / AIDS p andemic w ill continue to negatively imp act on food:security. Domestic and foreign investments as w ell as overall foreign aid flow s w ere not significantly affected by th e events of 2 0 0 5 . Th e ex p ort trade continued to register encouraging grow th rates. F inancial and fiscal stability w as maintained. During th e review p eriod th e government introduced minor additional reforms to investment and tax ation but continued to resist demands by th e International F inancial Institutions to op en th e country' s financial sector to foreign investment. It also continued to ignore domestic as w ell as international demands to fully p rivatise landow nersh ip . Desp ite general condemnation by th e op p osition and criticism from some w ith in th e international donor community, th e government h as remained committed to its p olicy of retaining ow nersh ip and control of economic reforms. A maj or risk factor to economic stability w ill be th e rise p etrol p rices on th e w orld mark et. Any furth er increase w ill h ave tremendously negative imp acts on th e still h igh ly fragile Eth iop ian economy. Ap art from th is risk , and unless th e coming agricultural seasons turns out very badly, th e economic outlook w ill remain p romising and contribute to calm also th e p olitical situation.

Th e follow ing sections p rovide an itemiz ed narrative of th e main conflictive events:

1. Com m unity c onf lic ts 1 . 1 A f a r R eg i ona l S ta te In increasing numbers, Eth iop ian Afar h ave accused th e EPRDF of encouraging th e insecurity th at is afflicting th eir community. Th ey p articularly resent th at th e Eth iop ian government is allegedly not doing enough to stop th e encroach ment of Issa:Somali in Z one Th ree of th e state. Afar nationalists also accuse th e TPL F of h aving tak en back Z one Tw o of th e state, w h ich before 1 9 9 1 formed p art of Tigray Province, and to h ave given large agricultural and mineral concessions to Tigray businessp ersons. Th e w ork ing of salt at Afdera (near th e Erta Alé volcano) allegedly resulted in freq uent sk irmish es last year betw een th e Afar and th e Eth iop ian army, defending th e Tigrayan investors op erating th ere. • M arch 6 : In Z one F ive of Afar Regional State armed O romo attack ed an Afar camp close to th e border of O romiya Z one of Amh ara Regional State and k illed 1 3 p eop le, including a w idely resp ected local dignitary. Afar op p osition circles attributed th e raid to mach inations of th e EPRDF :government, w h ile government sources p ut th e blame on th e O L F . 1 . 2 G a m b el a R eg i ona l S ta te Since th e mid:1 9 7 0 s G ambela h as been rack ed by eth nic tensions betw een immigrant h igh landers and th e Anuak and N uer, both indigenous to th e region. Since th e early years of th e M engistu:regime h igh landers h ave settled in G ambela in large numbers, mainly in Anuak territory. Th e M engistu:regime also favoured th e N uer community living in th e far w est of G ambela region. Th is in turn encouraged a vigorous N uer immigration into G ambela and allow ed th e N uer to p ush th eir settlement boundary to th e east, to th e detriment of th e Anuak . In addition, h undreds of th ousands of w ar refugees from South ern Sudan, many of th em also N uer, h ave fled to G ambela. W h en th e M engistu Regime fell in 1 9 9 1 , th e Anuak , w h o in th e early 1 9 6 0 s made up more th an 8 0 % of th e local p op ulation, h ad been reduced to a relative maj ority only. Alth ough th e Anuak :dominated G ambela Peop les L iberation M ovement (G PL M ), allied w ith th e EPRDF , took over th e administration of th e new G ambela Region, it w as not able to stop N uer immigration and by th e end of th e decade th e N uer p robably constituted th e largest eth nic group in G ambela. Th e rising number of N uer immigrants

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E t h i o p i a | J a n u a r y t o J u n e 20 0 6 | P a g e 5 not only ex acerbated th e relations betw een N uer and Anuak but also resulted in grow ing tensions w ith in th e N uer betw een th ose indigenous to G ambela and th e recent immigrants. Th e continuing p resence of several tens of th ousand refugees from South ern Sudan in camp s mainly located in Anuak territory also increased th e ire of th e Anuak community. Anuak attemp ts to reaffirm th eir regional p olitical h egemony and to enforce th e use of th eir language in p rimary education in G ambela Tow n and in th e rural h igh lander settlement areas located in Anuak territory, met w ith th e fierce resistance from th e h igh landers and N uer. Increasingly th e Anuak felt to be under siege, and since 2 0 0 0 th ere w as a slow but steady escalation of violence betw een Anuak and N uer and betw een Anuak and High landers. At th e end of 2 0 0 3 , after armed Anuak h ad attack ed a bus and k illed some h igh landers, h igh lander militia and Eth iop ian army forces stationed in G ambela, w ent on th e ramp age against th e Anuak community. Some 3 0 p eop le w ere confirmed k illed and 1 5 ,0 0 0 disp laced, th ough according to Anuak sources several h undred w ere k illed. In F ebruary 2 0 0 4 , Anuak attack ers k illed over 2 0 0 h igh landers in Dima W ereda in south :eastern G ambela. In a revenge attack th e army allegedly k illed many Anuak . As a result of th ese conflicts 3 0 ,0 0 0 Eth iop ian Anuak are alleged to h ave fled to th eir Sudanese k infolk around th e tow n of Poch ala. Since th en a number of small armed Anuak group s h ave emerged th at h ave carried out uncoordinated incursions into G ambela from th eir rear bases in th e Poch ala region of Sudan. Th e Anuak allege th at th e rep ression ex ercised against th em is p art of a strategy to disp ossess th em of th eir land th at is believed to be oil:rich . Th e conflicts betw een N uer and Anuak , and w ith in th e N uer, h ave been furth er p oliticised by N uer ex iles under th e leadersh ip of Th uw at Pal Ch ay, a former Central Committee member of th e W ork ers Party of Eth iop ia (W PE). In 1 9 9 8 , h e establish ed th e ex ile:based and Eritrea:back ed Eth iop ia Patriotic U nited F ront (EPU F ). Th e EPU F gained a footh old in W estern G ambela after it allied w ith th e Sudanese L ou N uer, members of w h ich in 2 0 0 1 occup ied most of Ak obo W ereda of G ambela and disp laced th e local L are N uer. In M ay 2 0 0 4 , th e Eth iop ian army crush ed th e EPU F p resence in Ak obo but failed to ex p el th e L ou N uer immigrants. L ater in 2 0 0 4 , G ambela w as reorganised by giving th e N uer, Anuak and M aj eng each th eir ow n z one. Since th en th e tension in th e N uer z one betw een N uer indigenous to G ambela and th e more recent immigrants h as increased. • Early J anuary: 3 ,0 0 0 IDPs due to N uer inter:clan clash es. • J anuary 9 : Eth iop ian forces allegedly launch ed an offensive on th e Gambela People’s Liber at ion A r my ( GPLA ) . Th e G PL A claims it forces k illed many Eth iop ian soldiers and w ounded many more in th e figh ting. • M arch : In Dima W ereda th ere w ere several security incidents, including one on 1 8 M arch w h en an armed group stop p ed a car and k illed six p assengers and w ounded tw o oth ers. In resp onse, additional defence forces w ere dep loyed to th e district. In early Ap ril, th e track ed dow n th e alleged p erp etrators of th e attack s and in th e ensuing sh oot:out k illed 1 3 Anuak . • End of M arch th rough out Ap ril: gunmen from South ern Sudan raid N uer villages in Ak obo and J ik aw o districts k illing over 7 0 p eop le, w ounding more th an 1 0 0 , looting th ousands of cattle and forcing more th an h alf of th e local Eth iop ian L are N uer to flee th eir h omes. M ost of th e disp laced crossed into South ern Sudan, some moved tow ards th e north ern p art of J ik aw o. Th e maj ority of th e raiders w ere M urle from J onglei p rovince of South ern Sudan but L ou N uer w ere also involved, aided by th eir k in, w h o h ave occup ied p arts of Ak obo W ereda for th e last five years. Th e M urle and L ou raiders h ave moved to G ambela to escap e disarmament op erations of th e SPL A. • J une 1 0 : at least 1 4 p eop le w ere k illed and 4 0 oth ers w ounded w h en unidentified armed raiders ambush ed a bus travelling from B onga to G ambela Tow n. L ocal officials susp ected th at rebels of th e Anuak eth nic group w ere resp onsible for th e attack . 1 . 3 O r om o R eg i ona l S ta te – B or a na a nd G u j i Z ones G uj i and B orana are both O romo, but th ey h ave distinct identities and also differ considerably in th eir socio:cultural institutions and economic activities. Th e G abra are a non:O romo, but O romiffa:sp eak ing community living mainly among th e B orana in Eth iop ia and K enya. Resource conflicts among th e th ree group s, and p articularly along th e settlement interface of G uj i and B orana/ G abra, h ave been common for decades. In 1 9 9 2 th e B orana and G uj i w ere j oined in th e B orana Z one of O romiya, but as th e B orana felt dominated by th e more numerous G uj i th ey demanded th eir ow n z one. Since th e creation of B orana Z one th e G uj i h ave initiated a south w ards ex p ansion to th e cost of th e B orana, w h o already h ad lost h uge p arts of th eir h omeland to various Somali clans and th e Somali:sp eak ing G arre. In Sep tember 2 0 0 3 , th e eastern p art of B orana Z one w as establish ed as a new G uj i Z one. Th e division did not corresp ond to th e territorial distribution of B orana and G uj i. A substantial B orana element w as left in th e south ern p art

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E t h i o p i a | J a n u a r y t o J u n e 20 0 6 | P a g e 6 of G uj i Z one around N egele B orana, w h ile th e north ern p art of th e reduced B orana Z one around Hagere M aryam (B ule Hora) w as ex clusively G uj i. In each z one th e new "minority" felt op p ressed by th e dominant local group . Th e G abra w ere draw n into th e G uj i:B orana conflict on th e side of th e B orana but also h ad th eir ow n conflicts w ith th em. In Ap ril 2 0 0 5 , th e long simmering communal tensions erup ted into armed clash es, at first involving th e G uj i and G abra but also later th e B orana. Th ese left more th an 2 0 p eop le dead and over 4 5 ,0 0 0 disp laced, many of w h om h ad not yet returned to th eir h omes by late sp ring 2 0 0 6 . O p p osition circles claimed th at th e clash es w ere p art of governmental rep ression against communities considered h ostile. Communal tensions w ere also h eigh tened by th e effects of several years of drough t, w h ich increased resource conflicts. In J anuary 2 0 0 6 in G uj i Z one th ere w ere 2 0 ,0 0 0 0 p eop le in need of food aid, in B orana Z one 1 5 5 ,0 0 0 . In Ap ril 2 0 0 6 , in B orana Z one more th an 1 0 0 ,0 0 0 p eop le w ere in need of w ater aid. • M ay 3 0 : in South :eastern O romiya a new round of armed conflict involving B orana, G uj i, and G abra erup ted. In th e intermittent clash es about 1 5 0 p eop le w ere k illed and about 9 0 ,0 0 0 disp laced. Allegedly th e clash es started w h en th e G uj i tried to tak e over land aw arded to th em by a recent ch ange in district boundaries. 1 . 4 S om a l i R eg i ona l S ta te • M ay 2 9 : J une 1 : At least 3 9 p eop le w ere k illed in four days of inter:clan figh ting in Daroor near th e border w ith Somaliland. Th e clash es p itted th e Habar Y onis against th e Idagaale after th e tw o sub:clans disagreed over th e construction of a w ater reservoir. B oth are from th e G arh aaj is clan, w h ose members are mostly found in Salah le district of Somaliland' s Togdh eer region. It w as th e first time th at such sk irmish es h ad occurred in th is area betw een th e tw o sub:clans, Sultan M oh ammed Sultan Abdik adir, a traditional leader said. Th ree p eace delegations comp rising Somaliland ministers, legislators, members of th e op p osition and traditional leaders left for Daroor to try and reconcile th e tw o sub:clans. 1 . 5 S ou th er n N a ti ons, N a ti ona l i ti es a nd P eop l e’ s R eg i ona l S ta te ( S N N P R S ) Rep eated p eace conferences and various official meetings (at w h ich th e p articip ants w ere admonish ed and called on to w ork for h armony among th e p eop le and to h elp th e auth orities to combat anti:p eace elements), h ave indirectly confirmed th e p ersistence of tensions among various eth nic group s. It ap p ears th at at least some of th e conflicts betw een eth nically defined communities w ere intertw ined w ith th e p olitical conflict betw een th e CU D and th e EPRDF . 1 . 5 . 1 G ed eo During th e elections of M ay 2 0 0 5 one constituency in G edeo Z one w as w on by th e CU D due to th e large number of Amh ara and G urage immigrants in Dila Tow n. After th e elections, local G edeo p oliticians from th e EPRDF :member South ern Eth iop ian Peop les Democratic M ovement (SEPDM ) w aged a defamation camp aign against th e CU D and its local sup p orters, th us contributing to a h eigh tening of tensions betw een th e communities. • Ap ril 3 , 2 0 0 6 : clash es in Dila, Y irgach efe, B ule, F iseh agenet, and oth er tow ns in G edeo Z one p itted local G edeo against G uj i:O romo, Amh ara and oth er immigrant communities. • Ap ril 1 7 : During a p eace conference h eld in Dila, officials called on th e p ublic to "stand vigilant and p revent activities of anti:p eace forces, w h ich are bent on fomenting discord". A j oint p eace committee w as formed to assist in th e inq uiry into th e recent violence. 1 . 5 . 2 S i d a m a In 2 0 0 2 Aw asa City w as tak en out of th e Sidama Z one and establish ed as a Sp ecial Z one directly under th e regional government. Th is sp ark ed off w idesp read p rotests by th e Sidama th at w ere ruth lessly sup p ressed by th e security forces and resulted in doz ens of death s and many arrests. Since th en p olitical tensions h ave remained h igh among th e Sidama and most local p olitical forces, including many of th e Sidama members of th e SEPDM , th e local ruling EPRDF :member, sup p orted th e demand for th e establish ment of a sep arate Sidama region th at includes Aw asa. In summer 2 0 0 5 , th e EPRDF :leadersh ip indicated th at it w ould be w illing to accep t such a demand. In August 2 0 0 5 , a formal req uest signed by th e necessary number of voters w as submitted to th e regional government. How ever, since th en th e EPRDF again, h as come out strongly against th e establish ment of a Sidama Region as it is afraid th is w ill ultimately result in th e falling ap art of th e South ern Regional State. • J anuary 1 9 : Prime M inister M eles Z enaw i convened a meeting of Sidama EPRDF :cadres and national and regional M Ps. Th ey w ere instructed to convince th e p eop le to stop th eir demands for a Sidama region. • F ebruary 2 : Hundreds of p eop le, including Aw asa U niversity and h igh sch ool students, w ere arrested at demonstrations in Aw asa and Y irgalem over th e status of th e Sidama z one.

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• F ebruary 1 4 : M eles Z enaw i h ad a meeting w ith Sidama elders, in w h ich h e failed to convince th em to give up th e demand for a Sidama Region. • M arch 1 2 : Hundreds of p eop le (including h igh sch ool students) demonstrated in Aw asa and oth er tow ns for th e creation of a Sidama region. Th e p olice dissolved th e demonstration and arrested doz ens of p articip ants. 1 . 6 R el i g i ou s c om m u ni ti es: • M ay 2 4 : In J ij iga, M uslim youth , mainly students, stoned h omes and businesses of Ch ristians in resp onse to an alleged desecration of th e K oran. B etw een 5 0 and 1 0 0 M uslims ramp aged th rough J ij iga sh outing "G od is G reat" after allegedly discovering th at a local Ch ristian:run restaurant w as using p ages of th e K oran to w rap food in.

2. A rm e d Strug g le s in th e R e g ions 2 . 1 A m h a r a R eg i ona l S ta te – E th i op i a n P eop l e’ s P a tr i oti c F r ont ( E P P F ) W ith th e active sup p ort of th e Eritrean government ex iled Eth iop ians of various p olitical back grounds in op p osition to th e EPRDF formed th e EPPF in 1 9 9 8 . Its h eadq uarters are in Eritrea w h ere it also h as training facilities. Since its formation it rep eatedly suffered from internal conflicts. Its current ch airman is k now n as M esk erem Atalay. After 2 0 0 1 , it began to infiltrate armed group s into th e N orth G onder Z one from its bases in Eritrea. N o indep endent source h as confirmed its alleged op erations in N orth ern Eth iop ia. How ever, th e ex tent of th e military op erations in north :w estern Amh ara region ack now ledged by th e Eth iop ian army is an indirect confirmation th at since th e beginning of 2 0 0 6 th e EPPF did ex p and its activities. • F ebruary:M arch : Th e EPPF claimed to h ave k illed and w ounded large numbers of Eth iop ian soldiers in military engagements at Addi G esh u (2 5 k illed, 2 0 w ounded) and B edew e (1 1 9 k illed, 6 8 w ounded, 2 8 cap tured) in north : w estern Amh ara Region • M arch 2 3 : Th e Information O ffice of Armach o W ereda of N orth G onder Z one of Amh ara Regional State claimed th at "some 2 1 bandits, w h o barricaded roads and robbed p eop le as w ell as veh icles and k illed civilians in localities in Armach o, w ere k ep t under control". Anoth er 2 8 "bandits", among th em tw o leaders w ere said to h ave been k illed "w h ile p ursuing similar activities, and op ening fire on security forces." • Ap ril:J une: Th e EPPF rep orted several attack s on army camp s and p ositions in N orth G onder Z one during w h ich over h undred soldiers w ere k illed and some 1 5 0 w ounded. • J une 2 6 : Th e Eth iop ian Defence M inistry announced th at a successful military op eration against armed insurgents w h o h ad infiltrated th e N orth ern G onder Z one from Eritrea, took p lace in Q uara, Armach o, Alai, South ern M etema and oth er areas. Th e government claimed th at 1 1 1 rebel forces h ad been k illed, 1 8 inj ured and 8 6 oth ers cap tured, w h ile 2 1 p eop le gave th emselves up to its forces. N ine h eavy mach ine:guns, 6 1 assault rifles, four RPG (Rock et Prop elled G uns), seven anti:tank w eap on w ith ammunition and 7 6 h and grenades w ere tak en. Among th ose k illed w ere several senior leaders. • J une 2 8 : th e EPPF confirmed th at th e op eration of th e Eth iop ian security forces w as directed against its forces but rej ected th e government' s claim to h ave destroyed th em. It furth er claimed th at it is now op erating in G onder, G oj am and W elo and th at it h as moved from th e stage of G uerrilla W arfare to a Peop le’s W ar. 2 . 2 O r om i y a R eg i ona l S ta te – O r om o L i b er a ti on F r ont ( O L F ) In O ctober 2 0 0 5 , th e Eth iop ian government, th rough N orw egian intermediaries, offered to th e O L F to negotiate its reintegration into th e legal p olitical p rocess in Eth iop ia. Alth ough th e O L F at first indicated to be w illing to talk , it rej ected th e offer in N ovember 2 0 0 5 and called up on its follow ers to rise up against EPRDF :rule. In some tow ns of O romiya, O romo students ap p arently took up th is call and staged p rotests. Th e O L F infiltrated new figh ters, trained in Eritrea, into W estern W ellega and according to its ow n statements it intensified armed attack s on th e Eth iop ian army in W ellega and B ale. Th e Eth iop ian auth orities resp onded w ith a w ave of arrests among students and intensified th e h unt for susp ected O L F figh ters. Th ey also link ed th e increase in armed attack s in W ellega and Sh ew a to activities of "anti: p eace elements" from th e CU D coop erating w ith th e O L F . • J anuary 1 : Several students ch anting anti:EPRDF slogans clash ed w ith th e p olice in w estern W elega and w estern Sh ew a. Th e federal p olice used force to q uell th e p rotests and took several h undred to th e Didesa and Senk ele detention camp s. O romo M Ps from th e op p osition demanded a sp ecial investigation into th e Human Righ ts violations in O romiya.

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• J anuary 9 : According to th e O L F , Eth iop ian forces in coop eration w ith th e Sudan Peop le' s L iberation Army (SPL A) attack ed p ositions of th e O romo L iberation Army (O L A) in W estern O romiya, near th e border w ith Sudan. Th e O L F claims its forces rep ulsed th e attack and k illed 3 0 Eth iop ian and 5 SPL A soldiers and w ounded anoth er 4 5 Eth iop ian soldiers. • J anuary 1 3 :1 7 : According to th e O L F , its figh ters clash ed w ith government forces at Dh are in th e G inir District and at Dh adach a Tok icx h a in th e G oro District of B ale. • J anuary 1 8 : Prime M inister M eles Z enaw i agreed to th e establish ment of an indep endent investigation into th e alleged h uman righ ts violations in th e O romia Regional State, as suggested by th e U K secretary of state for international develop ment. • J anuary 2 3 : M ost lik ely in an attemp t to deflect th e mounting international and internal critiq ue of th e government' s h eavy:h anded h andling of p olitical dissent in O romiya, th e Eth iop ian state:media embark ed on a media camp aign lasting several w eek s against th e atrocities allegedly committed in th e p ast few month s by O L F and CU D:link ed "anti:p eace elements" sup p orted by Eritrea in several z ones of central and w estern O romiya. • J anuary 3 1 : A rep ort of Amnesty International alleged th at th ousands of O romo h ad been detained in a round up of alleged dissidents after th e p ost:electoral violence in N ovember 2 0 0 5 . M any of th e O romo detainees w ere accused of being members of th e O L F , w h ich h ad called for p rotests. Eth iop ia rej ected th e rep ort but admitted th at some 8 6 students, including O romo, h ad been detained for th row ing bombs at sch ools, break ing sch ool p rop erty and disrup ting th e teach ing:learning p rocess, are ch arged at p ertinent courts. • F ebruary:M arch 2 6 : Auth orities in O romiya rep orted 1 3 bomb attack s in Ambo (W est Sh ew a) and several attack s of O L F "rebels" collaborating w ith "anti:p eace forces" (CU D) and sup p orted by Eritrea in Eastern W ellega, as w ell as in W estern and N orth ern Sh ew a. 2 . 3 S om a l i sta te – O g a d en N a ti ona l L i b er a ti on F r ont ( O N L F ) • J anuary 2 5 : An op p osition Radio F reedom corresp ondent allegedly based in th e O gaden rep orted several recent battles betw een O N L F and Eth iop ian troop s in th e eastern O gaden, alleging th at several doz en Eth iop ian soldiers w ere k illed and many w ounded. • M arch 2 3 : A p ublic conference on p eace and develop ment in G ode Tow n vow ed "to root out anti: p eace elements...organiz ed under th e O N L F w h o are k illing innocent civilians, p lanting grenades and burning h ouses” . It stated furth er th at ‘ ” th e obj ective of th e O N L F is to create h avoc and instability th us disrup ting th e legal cattle mark et and reintroduce contraband, w h ich is th e main source of income of th e F ront th at loots th e cattle and smuggle th em to neigh bouring states...th e anti:p eace forces are aiming at imp eding th e ex p ansion of roads, electricity, and telep h one as w ell as oth er social services...th ey are p articularly focusing on G ode, Danan and East Eme district in th e Central O gaden” . • Ap ril 2 4 : Th e O N L F issued a w arning to comp anies th at are look ing tow ards develop ing national gas fields in th e K alub and Hilala localities in th e O gaden. • Ap ril 2 7 : According to M eles Z enaw i th e "O N L F h as been th ere for th e p ast many years and h as alw ays been th reatening. B ut it can not stop comp anies w h ich are interested in th e p rosp ecting and develop ment of oil and gas reserves". He h ad talk s w ith elders of th e O gaden w h o "w ould p eacefully resolve th e p roblem w ith O N L F . B ut th e results so far are not encouraging." • J une 1 4 : According to h umanitarian sources, tw o mobile h ealth teams susp ended th eir w ork because of clash es betw een government troop s and insurgents forces.

3 . U rban v iole nc e and unre st 3 . 1 U r b a n b om b a tta c k s • Since early J anuary 2 0 0 6 a string of more th an a doz en bomb attack s in Addis Ababa, J ij iga and G edo against civilian targets h ave resulted in th e death s of more th an a doz en p eop le, th e w ounding of close to 1 0 0 p ersons and h ave caused considerable damage. N o one h as claimed resp onsibility for th e bomb attack s, but th e government h as accused th e CU D and oth er "anti:p eace elements" :including "sep aratist rebels" and "Somali M uslim ex tremists" allied w ith and sup p orted by Eritrea : of h aving carried out th ese attack s. Eritrea h as strongly denied any involvement.

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3 . 2 P ol i c e a c ti ons a g a i nst a l l eg ed ter r or i st c el l s • F ebruary 2 0 , 2 0 0 6 : Th e N ational Intelligence and Security Service and th e F ederal Police Anti:Terrorism Task F orce claimed to h ave dismantled and arrested "th e leadersh ip and ex ecuters of a clandestine group link ed to th e Coalition for U nity and Democracy (CU D) and undertak ing p rep arations over th e p ast few month s to launch an armed urban terror” . Th e efforts of th e group h ad th e financial back ing of group s and individuals abroad and p eop le h aving ex p erience in th e former EPRP masterminded its activities. • Ap ril 2 4 : Th e Addis Ababa Police Commission rep orted to h ave p ut illegal arms under control follow ing surp rise search es carried out in th e City. Th e search es w ere p art of a p reventive strategy aiming at forestalling p ossible disrup tions of th e Easter celebrations. 3 . 3 U r b a n v i ol enc e i nv ol v i ng sta te a g enc i es • F ebruary 6 : A federal p oliceman w as alleged to h ave committed th e (p olitically motivated) ex traj udicial ex ecution of four youth in G onder. In Ap ril th e federal p olice announced th at "th ese death s h ave no relationsh ip w ith any governmental issue, [ and] th ey are not related to th e elections. It is a p ersonal affair. Th e p oliceman is now in custody." • M ay 2 7 : In clash es betw een p rotesters and p olice in Adama at least one p erson w as k illed and up to 2 0 w ounded. Th e clash es started w h en traders in th e G imb G ebeya mark et area refused to obey an order to evacuate th eir p remises. Th ese w ere to be demolish ed and in th eir p lace a th ree:story sh op p ing comp lex and oth er buildings constructed. Th e sh op k eep ers and traders w ere offered financial comp ensation and an area to relocate th eir businesses, but th ey w ere not satisfied w ith th e offer and refused to evacuate th eir p remises. Th e rabid anti:TPL F U S:based op p osition organ E t h iopian R ev iew accused th e government of h aving sold th e disp uted location to a p ro: TPL F businessman. • J une 8 : E t h iopian R ev iew carried a rep ort on violent clash es in Adama and M eq ele betw een students of Tigray origin and th ose of oth er eth nic group s. It alleged th at in th e days and w eek s p rior to th e TPL F :cadres h eld ex clusive meetings for Tigrayan students in M eq ele and oth er tow ns telling th em about th e need for Tigrays to p rotect th emselves against imp ending genocidal attack s by O romo, Amh ara and oth er eth nic group s. O ne of th e top ics th at w ere discussed at th e "Tigray:only" meeting w as th e new ly forged alliance betw een O L F and CU D and h ow it is a grave th reat to Tigrayans.

4 . P olitic al and j uridic al f ollow $up of th e 20 0 5 v iole nc e V iolent clash es in J une and O ctober:N ovember 2 0 0 5 led to th ousands of th ose susp ected of involvement being imp risoned or p ut into detention camp s. W h ile a large number w ere freed p rior to th e end of 2 0 0 5 , Prime M inister M eles Z enaw i h as said th at around 3 ,0 0 0 p eop le still face legal ch arges. At th e end of 2 0 0 5 a group of 1 2 9 p olitical leaders, j ournalists, and members of civic organisations w ere indicted, some of th em in absentia, for treason, instigation of genocide and violence, attemp ts to dismantle th e constitution, setting ablaz e army veh icles, fomenting mutiny w ith in th e army and a h ost of similarly w orded accusations. • J anuary 1 3 : Eth iop ia’s p olice released w ith out ch arge 2 ,2 5 2 p eop le detained during a crack dow n on p rotesters against th e disp uted results of last year’s elections. Th e move raised th e number of freed detainees to more th an 1 1 ,2 0 0 . • J anuary 1 8 : Th e Indep endent Enq uiry Commission, set up on 1 2 N ovember 2 0 0 5 under Proclamation N o 4 7 8 / 9 8 to investigate th e h uman casualties and p rop erty damage in th e violence th at occurred in Addis Ababa, officially commenced its w ork . • F ebruary 1 7 : In th e Amh ara region ch arges w ere filed against 2 6 3 p eop le for th eir alleged involvement in th e "street riots" in N ovember 2 0 0 5 . O f nearly 2 ,0 0 0 detained 1 ,2 4 8 w ere later released as th eir roles h ad been p roven to be insignificant. Th e remaining 7 5 0 susp ects w ere k ep t in detention in B irsh elk o and J are p risons; a furth er 4 3 9 w ere released due to lack of evidence in p roving a maj or role in th e violence. Th e files of 4 8 oth ers w ere referred back to th e p olice for furth er investigation. • M arch 1 5 : 3 9 5 detainees arrested on susp icion of involvement in p ost:election p olitical violence w ere released. Th e ex act number of p eop le still detained in connection w ith th e 2 0 0 5 violence remains unclear. State media said only

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9 8 p risoners remained in custody at Z iw ay detention camp ; op p osition circles claim th ere are still several th ousand detainees. • M arch 1 7 :2 0 : Th e p rosecutor filed 1 5 1 ch arges of attemp ts to dismantle th e constitutional order after street violence, allegedly masterminded by CU D. • M arch 2 1 : Th e F ederal High Court acq uitted 1 8 defendants after th ey p leaded guilty and ‘ rep ented’. • Ap ril 2 6 : Th e Indep endent Enq uiry Commission called up on th e p ublic to p rovide th e necessary information about th e h uman casualties and p rop erty damage th at occurred during th e p ost:electoral violence in Addis Ababa and some p arts of th e country. Th e Parliament ex tended its th ree:month p eriod of investigation for anoth er month .

5 . P olitic al de v e lop m e nts inside E th iop ia and in th e E th iop ian D iasp ora After h aving crack ed:dow n on th e h ardliner sector of th e op p osition th at attemp ted to unseat th e EPRDF from p ow er, or at least to enter into a p ow er:sh aring arrangement w ith it in th e form of a G overnment of N ational U nity, th e government of M eles Z enaw i consolidated its p olitical p osition during th e rep orting p eriod. Th is w as done th rough a j udicious mix ture of th reats and concessions to th e legal op p osition th at w as w illing to w ork w ith in th e p olitical system, as set:up and controlled by th e EPRDF . Confronted w ith th e government’s cap acity and w ill to crack dow n on ex tra: institutional dissent, th e moderate op p osition is seek ing its future in coop eration and a q uiet strength ening of its organisational and p op ular base. Th e h ardliner ex ternal op p osition attributed th e w illingness to coop erate of U EDF , O F DM , and p arts of th e CU D : as w ell as th e sp lits affecting O N C, CU D and U EDP:M edh in –to th e mach inations of th e EPRDF and accused th e p oliticians w illing to w ork w ith in th e system of h aving been ‘ bough t’ by th e EPRDF . Alth ough th e alliance betw een th e radical ex ternal w ings of U EDF and CU D w ith Eritrea and th e "secessionist" O L F and O N L F im: p acted negatively on th e nationalist and unitary constituency of th e CU D w ith in Eth iop ia, th ere is a reservoir of disgruntled and frustrated youth w h o migh t be temp ted to follow th e call to armed struggle made by th e AF D and oth er movements. • Th rough out th e rep orting p eriod Eth iop ian D iaspor a op p osition organisations and media continuously called up on th e Eth iop ian p op ulation in general, and th e youth and students in p articular, to engage in a camp aign of civil disobedience and resistance. • J anuary 3 : Th e N ational Election B oard of Eth iop ia (N EB E) recogniz ed th e new leadersh ip of th e O N C, installed in late Sep tember 2 0 0 5 , as th e legal leadersh ip of th e p arty. In Sep tember 2 0 0 5 , Tolosa Tesfaye h ad rep laced O N C Ch airman M erara G udina, w h o refused to accep t h is dismissal and accused th e new ch airman to be an EPRDF : agent. M erara claimed to rep resent th e genuine O N C, and took up h is seat in Parliament as O N C rep resentative. Some oth er O N C p arliamentarians sup p orted h im. • J anuary 6 : Th e general assembly of U EDP:M edh in decided to j oin th e federal p arliament and th e Addis Ababa City Council, p ostp oned a decision on th e p lanned merger w ith th e its allies in CU D, and elected a new central committee but retained th e p rovisional ex ecutive committee h eaded by L idetu Ayalew as th e ex ecutive organ of th e p arty. • J anuary 1 6 : Th e meeting of th e U EDF :leadersh ip in W ash ington ex p elled its leaders B eyene Petros and M erera G udina for h aving tak en up th eir seats in th e Eth iop ian Parliament and installed a new ex ecutive committee, dominated by ex ile organisations and ch aired by F asik a B elete from th e Eth iop ian Peop le’s Revolutionary Party (EPRP). Th e new ex ecutive decided th at U EDF ' s activities in Eth iop ia sh ould from now on be underground, as all th e p ath s for an op en struggle in Eth iop ia w ere ex h austed. It also agreed to organise a conference of all th e op p osition p arties including th e O L F and O N L F . Th e meeting in W ash ington consecrated th e sp lit betw een th e internal U EDF in Eth iop ia, and th e ex ternal U EDF led by th e EPRP, w h ich op p osed th e decision of th e internal U EDF :p arties p arties to tak e up th eir p arliamentary seats. • J anuary 1 6 : O nly 5 4 of th e 1 3 8 elected dep uties of th e new ly elected Addis Ababa City Council h ad registered w ith th e N EB E, missing th e legally demanded q uorum of 7 0 . • J anuary 3 1 : th e F ederal High Court acq uitted 1 1 businessp ersons h eld under ch arges of corrup tion since M ay 2 0 0 1 , w h en th e arrest of doz ens of p rominent businessp ersons and some officials from th e government and p arastatals mark ed th e start of a maj or anti:corrup tion camp aign. In J anuary 2 0 0 2 doz ens of officials from th e state:ow ned Commercial B ank w ere also arrested. Th e government claimed to h ave uncovered th e biggest corrup tion scandal th e country h ad ever seen. How ever, only a few cases w ere actually tried, and even few er sentences w ere p assed. After

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th e q uiet release of many of th e accused bank officials on bail in M ay 2 0 0 5 and th e release of th e businessp ersons, th e centrep iece of th e anti:corrup tion camp aign h as p ractically collap sed. Th e q uite termination of th ese cases strength ens th e argument th at th e w h ole matter w as a p olitical set:up . • F ebruary 1 6 : EPRDF , U EDF and O F DM agreed to discussions on six maj or agenda items such as th e N ational Electoral B oard, M ass M edia, and Parliamentarians’ Code of Conduct as w ell as on w ays for p olitical p arties to get financial sup p ort from government. • F ebruary 2 2 : Th e U S:based E t h iopian D emoc r at ic A c t ion Leag u e ( T eg bar Leag u e) claimed "its ch ap ters in Eth iop ia h ave called for a camp aign of p eaceful civil disobedience from M arch 2 0 to 2 4 . Tegbar L eague ch ap ters in Eth iop ia, in collaboration w ith oth er organiz ations, are to conduct various op p osition activities in every city, tow n and village including block ing maj or roads, w ork slow dow n, boycott of sch ools, and boycott of p roducts th at are p roduced or sold by EPRDF :affiliated comp anies… Th ese non:violent actions are intended to systematically mak e th e country ungovernable and p aralyz e th e M eles regime. Th ere w ill be no p ublic demonstration and direct confrontation w ith th e blood th irsty F ederal Police and M eles Z enaw i' s death sq uad." • M arch 6 : AEU P, EDL and REM DSJ sent an ap p lication to th e N EB E to be allow ed to form a coalition. Th is move w idens th e sp lit betw een th e U EDP:M edh in and th e oth er member p arties of th e CU D. Th e N EB E subseq uently rej ects th e ap p lication on tech nical grounds. • M arch 2 8 : As insufficient op p osition dep uties h ad registered w ith th e N EB E for tak ing up th eir seats in th e Addis Ababa City Council, th e F ederal Parliament mandated th e government to install a neutral one:year care:tak er administration to govern Addis Ababa. • Ap ril 2 4 : AEU P, EDL , REM DSJ and th e All Eth iop ian Democratic Party:M edh in (a break :aw ay faction of U EDP: M edh in) received th e certificate of legal recognition as CU DP from th e N EB . Th e CU DP Provisional Coordinating Committee said th e legal recognition certificate w ould h elp it continue its p eaceful struggle. • M ay 4 : U EDP:M edh in affirmed it h as no association w ith th e new ly formed CU DP and terminated th e p arty membersh ip of p ersons h aving p articip ated in th e formation of th e new CU DP. • M ay 9 : Th e caretak er administration of Addis Ababa assumes office. • M ay 1 5 : Desp ite calls for p ublic p rotests to commemorate th e elections h eld on M ay 1 5 , 2 0 0 5 , th e day p assed q uietly in Addis Ababa and oth er tow ns. In th e w eek s p rior, calls to action w ere distributed by w ay of p amp h lets distributed in Addis Ababa and w ebsites link ed w ith th e CU D and op p osition forces in ex ile. • M ay 1 9 :2 3 : At a meeting in U trech t, th e ex ternal w ings of U EDF and CU D as w ell as EPPF , O L F , O N L F and th e Sidama L iberation F ront (SL F ) establish ed th e A llian c e f or F r eed om an d D emoc r ac y ( A F D ) w ith th e aim to liberate Eth iop ia by all means p ossible, including armed struggle from EPRDF :rule. Th e Eritrean government, h ost to th ree of its members, h as actively sup p orted th e formation of AF D. • M ay 2 3 : EPRDF , U EDF and O F DM signed an agreement not to align th emselves w ith organiz ations and group s th at do not accep t, and seek to demolish , th e constitution th rough th e use of force. • M ay 2 6 : Th e CU D inside Eth iop ia stressed th at it intends to advance its goals on th e basis of th e constitution and only th rough p eaceful means and does not accep t any call th at is contrary to th e legal and p eaceful meth od of struggle. As a legally registered p arty op erating in th e country it said it h as no interest in creating a united front w ith elements w ish ing to engage in armed struggle. It denied involvement in th e formation of AF D and called on individuals op erating abroad in th e name of CU D to refrain from irresp onsible activities. • M ay 3 0 : After renew ed internal conflicts Tefera L egese rep laced Tolosa Tesfaye as O N C Ch airman. A p arty congress is to be h eld soon to elect a new p ermanent leadersh ip . • J une 2 6 : EPRDF U EDF and O F DM agreed to abide by th e new ly amended w ork ing p rocedure and code of conduct of th e House of Peop les' Rep resentatives. As p art of th is agreement th e earlier controversial new ly introduced 5 1 p er cent req uirement to endorse an agenda h as been amended to one th ird of th e vote of th e House.

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Conf lic tiv e and Coop e rativ e I nte rnational E v e nts Regional develop ments are of great concern for Country Stability. W h ile th e p ositive p olitical and economic re: lationsh ip s w ith its neigh bours Sudan, K enya and Dj ibouti are set to continue, desp ite p ersistent minor issues, relationsh ip s w ith Eritrea and Somalia w ill continue to be of great concern and could p ose a strong ch allenge for Country Stability. Th e greatest ex ternal risk arises from recent develop ments in Somalia. Th is is a comp lete reversal of th e situation ex isting at th e end of 2 0 0 4 w h en th e creation of th e Transitional F ederal G overnment for Somalia (TF G ), led by a close ally of Eth iop ia, endorsed Eth iop ian ascendancy over th e p rocess of Somalian state reconstruction. (Eth iop ia h as p ursued th is goal since 1 9 9 1 as th e best w ay to secure additional h arbours for Eth iop ia and to neutralise Somalian irredentists’ ambitions on South eastern Eth iop ia). Th e ascent of th e Islamic Courts in Somalia during th e first h alf of 2 0 0 6 th reatens to destroy th e internationally recognised TF G and p oses a serious th reat to Eth iop ia' s interest in th e Horn and its internal stability. A comp lete Islamic tak e:over of p ow er in South ern Somalia carries a serious th reat for th e survival of th e Puntland: administration and th e break aw ay Rep ublic of Somaliland both of w h ich are close allies of Eth iop ia. Th e creation of an Islamic State, in some or all of th e territory of th e former Rep ublic of Somalia, not only th reatens Eth iop ia but also Dj ibouti and K enya, as th e radical Islamist forces beh ind th e Islamic Courts h ave already indicated th eir ultimate aim to be th e creation of an Islamic Somali U mma embracing all th e Somali in th e Horn. Th e Eth iop ian government fears th at victory of th e Islamic Courts w ill imp act on th e irredentist movements among Eth iop ian Somali. Eq ually, or even more th reatening, is th e fear of massive sup p ort by Somalian Islamists for th e armed O romo struggle for national self:determination and its Islamisation. Th is danger is th e more lik ely as Eritrea, w h ich since 1 9 9 8 h as used th e O L F and th e O N L F in its attemp ts to conduct a p rox y w ar w ith Eth iop ia th rough Somalia, h as since J anuary 2 0 0 6 reinforced its sup p ort for both th e O L F and th e O N L F and also began to p rovide secret logistic and military sup p ort to th e Islamic Courts. Eth iop ia h as reacted to th is th reat by sending military forces across th e border to sh ore up th e tottering TF G , but : for th e time being : h as stop p ed sh ort of full:scale military intervention. Th e currently unresolved conflict w ith Eritrea p oses much less of a direct th reat. During th e p eriod under review Eth iop ia h as continued to refuse to accep t th e ruling of th e boundary commission as final and binding, and p redictably Eritrea h as refused to enter into discussion w ith Eth iop ia on a renegotiation of th e boundary. Eth iop ia w ill continue to use th e boundary issue as an instrument to continue a (non:military) w ar w ith Eritrea, forcing Eritrea to divert p recious resources. B y w eak ening Eritrea' s overall p olitical, social and economic stability, Eth iop ia’s intention is to force Eritrea to finally accep t Eth iop ian h egemony in th e region, and w ith out resorting to direct military activities. How ever, in order to deter Eritrea, in th e fourth q uarter of 2 0 0 5 it increased its military p resence along th e south ern border of th e Temp orary Security Z one. Alth ough it subseq uently w ith drew some of its forces again from th e border area, on balance its military p resence th ere h ad been increased. G iven th e strength ened Eth iop ian military p resence south of th e Temp orary Security Z one, th e internal Eritrean p roblems, w h ich also ex tend to th e army, and th e negative international rep ercussion of such an action, it is unlik ely th at in th e near future Eritrea w ill resort to military means to recover th e territory, w h ich th e boundary ruling aw arded to it. How ever, as an alternative to an ex tremely risk y direct military confrontation w ith Eth iop ia, Eritrea h as step p ed up its sup p ort for th e armed Eth iop ian op p osition, as w ell as for th e Somalian Islamic Courts. It aims to destabilise Eth iop ia by involving it on all sides in p rox y w ars, w h ich eventually w ould result in th e dow n:fall of th e Eth iop ian government and create favourable conditions for Eritrea to p ermanently secure p ossession of th e disp uted territories by military and p olitical means. Th is Eritrean strategy is a risk y strategy as it entails th e danger of irritation, to w h ich Eth iop ian leaders may resp ond w ith p re:emp tive strik es. Attemp ts by th e U SA to mediate in th e Eritrean:Eth iop ian conflict w ere w ell intentioned but ultimately futile as neith er p arty w as w illing to relent. Th e U SA could not afford to force Eritrea to renounce its legally correct p osition as th ey w ish to ensure Eritrea as a p otential long:term ally in th e region, but th ey w ere also not w illing to antagonise Eth iop ia, th eir most imp ortant ally in th e region, by insisting th at it adh eres to its obligations from th e Algiers Peace Agreement. Instead th ey tried w ith dip lomatic means to bring both sides closer to each oth er, but th e only result of th is strategy w as th at both th e Eritreans and th e Eth iop ians view ed U S:intentions w ith mistrust. F urth er, th e oth er maj or international p layers utterly failed to resolve th e stalemate as th ey, too, h ad to recognise th e legitimacy of Eritrea' s legal p osition but w ere unw illing to imp ose p olitical and economic sanctions up on Eth iop ia to enforce its adh erence of th e boundary ruling.

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Th e ascent of th e Islamic Courts in Central Somalia rep resents anoth er failure of U S:p olicies in th e Horn. Th is failure not only th reatens th e survival of th e TF G but also Eth iop ia’s south :eastern flank . In view of th is th e U SA h ave few viable op tions: th ey h ave called for a p olitical solution and direct talk s betw een th e TF G and th e Islamic Courts in th e h op e th at internal divisions w ill w eak en th e Islamic Court movement in th is p rocess. In line w ith th is cautious ap p roach th ey h ave advised th eir Eth iop ian ally to ex ercise restraint and h ave called on Eritrea to terminate its military sup p ort to th e Islamic Courts. Th e limited cap acity of international p layers to influence local p olitical actors w as manifested in th eir reactions to th e p ost:electoral. W h ile aw are of th e sh ortcomings of th e election and vote:counting p rocess, and h igh ly critical of th e government' s violent resp onse to th e p ost:electoral p rotests, th e international community did not accep t th e op p osition' s allegation th at th e w h ole election h ad been a fraud and indicated th at aw areness of th e op p osition' s ow n contribution to th e escalation of violence. Sh ortfalls in th e democratic p rocess h ave been p ut dow n to "grow ing p ains" and th ere is a belief th at th e EPRDF and M eles Z enaw i are committed to develop ing Eth iop ia’s democracy. G uided by th is p ercep tion and sh ort of real alternatives, (th e need to h ave a strong Eth iop ian government as a dep endable ally in th e region), th e international community h ave op ted for cautious continuity. O p p osition demands th at th e international community sh ould condemn th e Eth iop ian government and imp ose p olitical and economic sanctions against th e government in order to enforce th e cancellation of th e election, and for th e installation of a government of national unity, h ave been ignored. Th e maj or donor countries and institutions p ublicly h ave criticised th e government' s h andling of th e p ost:electoral crisis, but refrained from op enly condemning th e government for its ex cessive use of violence. Th ey req uested th e government to seek a p olitical solution and to reach a p olitical accommodation w ith th e op p osition. In th eory, ex ternal aid to Eth iop ia could h ave been used as an instrument to p ressuriz e th e Eth iop ian government to reach a p olitical accommodation w ith th e op p osition, as Eth iop ia is a maj or recip ient of O DA in various forms. During th e F iscal Y ear 2 0 0 4 / 0 5 multilateral and bilateral donors p rovided a total of U S$ 3 8 8 million in th e form of direct budget sup p ort alone. O f direct budget sup p ort, 7 1 p ercent w as ex tended by multilateral sources lik e IDA (U S$ 1 5 0 million), ADF (U S$ 8 8 .8 3 million), and EU (U S$ 2 4 .7 6 million); 2 9 p ercent w as from bilateral sources such as DF ID (U S$ 5 5 .0 3 million), CIDA (U S$ 1 9 .0 8 million), SIDA (U S$ 1 3 .2 2 million), Ireland (U S$ 1 3 .1 9 million) and G ermany (U S$ 1 1 .6 2 million). Eth iop ia also h ad received substantial debt relief via th e High ly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs) initiative, w h ich is dep endent on th e p erformance of p overty reduction p rograms. Initially it w as agreed th at a total of U S$ 3 7 2 .8 4 million eith er be cancelled or resch eduled. Till th e end of 2 0 0 5 th e total debt relief obtained th rough th e tw o negotiations amounted to U S$ 5 3 7 .7 million, 2 6 p ercent of w h ich w as cancelled and 7 4 p ercent resch eduled. F urth er debt relief, estimated at about U S$ 3 billion, w as under discussion. Indeed, reacting to th e government' s violent resp onse to p ost:electoral urban p rotests, in December 2 0 0 5 th e EU announced th e w ith h olding of its U S$ 3 7 5 million direct budgetary sup p ort to th e government. Th is move w as follow ed by G reat B ritain and th e W orld B ank . Th e w ith h olding of direct budgetary aid w as a p olitical signal, but in p ractice it h ad no measurable imp act on th e level of aid flow ing to Eth iop ia and th e amount of h ard currency made available to th e Eth iop ian government th rough international aid, as th e funds w ere to be reallocated to th e U .N . and aid agencies in sup p ort of th eir p overty:reduction p rograms. Also, th e subseq uent redirection of direct budgetary sup p ort from th e central government to th e regions h ad no negative imp act on th e amount of aid flow ing to Eth iop ia nor did it negatively imp act up on th e central budget. Th e sup p ort now given directly to th e regions w as allocated in line w ith th e overall develop ment p lanning of th e central government and counted as p art of th e federal subsidy to th e regions. Reflecting standard international p ractice, h umanitarian aid for food:insecure p op ulations w as not affected by th e international resp onse to th e domestic Eth iop ian p olitical crisis. How ever, due to a bump er h arvest for 2 0 0 6 it w as considerably below th e levels of th e p revious years. Th e government h as follow ed strategy of largely ignoring th e reaction of th e international community to th e internal p olitical situation. Th e release of most detainees and th e accep tance of most op p osition forces to w ork w ith in th e system h ave convinced th e donor community th at Eth iop ian domestic p olitics h ave stabilised and are h eading in a p ositive direction. As a conseq uence, aid flow s h ave increased and furth er large:scale debt cancellations made. As p art of th e normalisation of Eth iop ia' s relations w ith th e international donor community, in F ebruary 2 0 0 6 th e Second U N Develop ment Assistance F ramew ork (U N DAF II) w as signed, as w as th e common strategic framew ork for th e op erational activities of th e U N System in Eth iop ia. Th e latter p rovides a collective, coh erent and integrated U N System resp onse to national p riorities and needs as identified in Eth iop ia' s second national p overty reduction strategy p ap er, th e Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Develop ment to End Poverty (PASDEP) 2 0 0 5 / 6 :2 0 0 9 / 1 0 .

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U nder U N DAF II th e 1 9 members of th e U N Country Team Eth iop ia (U N CT:Eth iop ia) w ill carry out develop ment p roj ects valued at U S$ 1 billion. In M ay 2 0 0 6 th e W orld B ank granted additional funds to Eth iop ia totalling over U S$ 2 0 0 million. B y th e end of th e rep orting p eriod aid coop eration w as back to normal.

Th e follow ing sections p rovide an itemiz ed narrative of th e main events:

Conf lic tiv e I nte rnational E v e nts 1 . E r i tr ea n3E th i op i a n c onf l i c t Th e rej ection by Eth iop ia of th e legally binding B oundary Commission border demarcation ruling, issued in Ap ril 2 0 0 2 , caused renew ed tensions betw een th e tw o states, leading to a military build:up along th e border in th e fourth q uarter of 2 0 0 5 , and raised fears of renew ed military conflict betw een both countries. Th e monitoring activities of th e U nited N ations M ission in Eth iop ia and Eritrea (U N M EE) in th e demilitarised 2 5 :k m:w ide Temp orary Security Z one along th e border w ere seriously h amp ered by restrictions imp osed by th e Eritrean government, reducing th e mission' s monitoring ability by 6 0 p ercent. Attemp ts by th e U N and th e U SA during th e rep orting p eriod to bring th e tw o sides togeth er remained unsuccessful, as Eritrea h as insisted on Eth iop ia imp lementing th e border decision, w h ich Eth iop ia h as refused. A sp eedy resolution to th e stalemate on th e border issue is not ex p ected. Currently renew ed military confrontation ap p ears unlik ely as both sides are afraid of th e incalculable rep ercussions of a resump tion of h ostilities. • J anuary 4 : U N :G eneral Secretary K ofi Annan in h is rep ort to th e U N SC said restrictions enforced by Eritrea on p eacek eep ers h ave made th eir mission “ increasingly untenable” . Eritrea criticised th e rep ort and blamed th e Eth iop ian intransigence and th e failure of th e U N to "sh oulder its resp onsibility" to enforce th e border ruling. • J anuary 9 : Th e U nited States disp atch ed a dip lomatic team led by J endayi F raz er, assistant secretary of state for African affairs, and retired M arine G en Carlton F ulford, director of th e Africa Centre for Strategic Studies, to th e region w ith th e mandate to try and resolve th e current standoff, w h ich h ad reach ed a "critical p oint". • J anuary 1 1 : According to th e U N M EE force commander, tension along th e Eth iop ia:Eritrea border h as eased after th e w ith draw al of eigh t Eth iop ian troop divisions from th e frontier. • J anuary 1 9 : Eritrea' s p resident Isaias Afew erk i refused to allow th e h igh :level U S team of dip lomats and military officials into Eritrea, insisting th ere w as noth ing to discuss and Eth iop ia sh ould instead comp ly w ith th e international border ruling. Allow ing th e U S to engage in sh uttle dip lomacy could be seen to undermine th e final and binding ruling. • F ebruary 9 : Th e U N Security Council p ostp oned its decision on th e fate of U N M EE to give th e U SA anoth er month to resolve th e border disp ute betw een th e tw o nations. • M arch 1 1 : Eth iop ia accused Eritrea of involvement in th e bomb attack s in Addis Ababa. • M arch 1 1 :1 2 , 2 0 0 6 : As p art of a dip lomatic initiative to resolve th e disp ute, th e Eth io:Eritrea B oundary Commission h eld talk s in L ondon w ith legal ex p erts from Eth iop ia, Eritrea and international mediators on demarcating th e border betw een th e tw o countries. • Ap ril 1 3 : Th e U N Security Council ex tended U N M EE’s mandate, due to ex p ire by 1 5 Ap ril 2 0 0 6 , for one month . • M ay 1 7 : A second round of talk s h eld in L ondon to resolve th e standoff over th e demarcation of th e Eritrean: Eth iop ian border ended w ith out any p rogress. Eritrea refused to lift restrictions p laced up on th e op erations of U N M EE. • M ay 2 4 : In an address to th e nation on Eritrea' s 1 5 th indep endence anniversary, President Isaias Afew erk i accused th e U SA of "comp licating" efforts to resolve h is country' s border disp ute w ith Eth iop ia and encouraging Eth iop ia to defy th e ruling of th e boundary commission. He criticised th e U S for "attemp ting to lump togeth er" th e boundary issue w ith concerns over th e U N p eacek eep ing mission in th e frontier z one. • M ay 3 1 : Th e p resident of th e Eth iop ian Somali Region accused Eritrea of financing and sup p orting "anti:p eace elements" resp onsible for th e "terrorist attack s th at targeted civilians and w ere meant to imp ede th e develop ment in th e region". • M ay 3 1 : Th e U N Security Council ex tended th e U N M EE mandate for four month s, but reduced th e force from 3 ,3 7 3 to 2 ,3 0 0 troop s.

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• J une 1 5 : Eth iop ia accused Eritrea of sh ow ing no interest in resolving th e border disp ute. A meeting of th e International B oundary Commission in Th e Hague w as cancelled as Eritrea refused to attend unless Eth iop ia agreed to th e terms of th e 2 0 0 2 border ruling. 2 . K eny a Desp ite rep eated meetings of officials from both states, th e situation along th e Eth iop ian:K enyan borders, w h ere th ere h ave been sp oradic outbreak s of violence, remains volatile. Communal conflicts over resources and cross:border cattle rustling raids are intertw ined w ith p olitical conflicts betw een th e Eth iop ian government and th e O L F . As long as th e K enyan auth orities are unable or unw illing to stop O L F :incursions th rough K enya into Eth iop ia, Eth iop ian cross:border op erations against susp ected O L F :bases w ill continue. • Ap ril 7 : At th e conclusion of th e 2 4 th Eth iop ia:K enya J oint B order Administration Commission a coop eration agreement w as signed to maintain th e security along th e common border of Eth iop ia and K enya and to p revent th e movement of O romo rebels across it. Th e tw o sides said tribal conflicts in th e border areas h ave been minimiz ed. • Ap ril 1 0 : Eth iop ian raiders numbering over 1 .0 0 0 and believed to h ave come from th e Eth iop ian district of Y abelo attack ed four villages inside K enya close to th e border. Th ey stole at least 2 ,0 0 0 camels and 7 ,0 0 0 goats and h undreds of villagers w ere disp laced. Th e attack ed communities are G abra and th ey accused th e Eth iop ian government of sup p orting th e B orana w ith w h om th ey h ave been embroiled in resource conflicts. • Ap ril 1 8 : Eth iop ia claimed th e attack ers of Duk ana in north ern K enya, w h ere over 1 0 p eop le h ave been k illed, h ad not been Eth iop ian military, but figh ters of th e O L F w earing uniforms of th e Eth iop ian army. • Ap ril 2 3 :2 6 : N ear th e K enyan tow n of M oyale, Eth iop ian militia forces numbering over 6 0 crossed into K enya allegedly in search of O L F figh ters. K enyan security forces stoop ed th e intruders and forced th em to return to Eth iop ia. • J une 4 : In w h at h as become a freq uent occurrence since th e long rains began, an unk now n number of raiders believed to be of Eth iop ian origin yet again attack ed Duk ana at th e K enya:Eth iop ia border, w ounding tw o p ersons and stealing 6 0 0 goats. K enyan security forces managed to rep ulse th e attack ers and to recover th e livestock . 3 . S om a l i a In th e p eriod under review th e Eth iop ian G overnment intensified its p olitical and economic relationsh ip s w ith Somaliland and Puntland and ex tended its full p olitical and dip lomatic sup p ort to th e Transitional F ederal G overnment (TF G ) of Somalia. Alth ough th e TF G w as riven by factionalism, w h ich delayed its establish ment w ith in Somalia and th e creation of effective administrative structures, by F ebruary 2 0 0 6 it ap p eared th at w ith th e convening of th e Transitional Parliament and th e relocation of th e TF G to B aidoa th e intra:TF G :rivalries w ere in th e p rocess of being settled. To p ave th e w ay for th e relocation of th e TF G to M ogadish u, in F ebruary 2 0 0 6 th e recently created Alliance to Restore Peace and Against Terrorism (ARPAT), a U S:sup p orted and TF G :link ed alliance of M ogadish u w arlords, attemp ted to dismantle th e U nion of Islamic Courts (U IC), w h ich w as not p art of th e TF G :arrangement and th eir strongest rival in th e cap ital. Eth iop ian military sup p ort to th e ARPAT h as been susp ected but not p roven. Th is ill:p lanned and badly ex ecuted move set into a motion a p olitical and military dynamic, w h ich by J une 2 0 0 6 h ad radically ch anged th e Somalian p olitical landscap e resulting in a total victory of th e Islamic Courts in M ogadish u and th eir p olitical ascendancy over most p arts of Central and South ern Somalia, limiting th e TF G to Puntland and an enclave around its temp orary cap ital B aidoa, and severely reducing Eth iop ia' s p osition in Somalian p olitics. U ltimately th is dramatic reversal of Eth iop ian influence and U S:p lans in Somalia w as due to th e failure of th e ex ternal back ers of th e TF G and th e alliance of th e w arlords to p erceive th e grow ing recep tivity of ordinary Somali, tired by 1 5 years of internal conflict, for an Islamic p olitical and social discourse, and an underestimation of th e strength of anti:Eth iop ian sentiments. Th e victory of th e U nion of Islamic Courts (U IC) over th e alliance of th e w arlords in early J une 2 0 0 6 alarmed Eth iop ia and since th en tensions h ave been h igh along th e frontier. Th e ex p ansion of th e influence of th e U IC beyond M ogadish u to areas close to th e border w ith Eth iop ia, coup led w ith references by U IC:leaders to th e "unresolved O gaden issue", h as raised Eth iop ian fears of an Islamist infiltration into th e volatile O gaden. Eritrean p olitical and logistic sup p ort to th e Islamic Courts and th e O N L F , ap p arently in order to ex ert p ressure on Eth iop ia and divert its attention from th e Eritrean border, adds anoth er element dangerous to Eth iop ia' s interests to th e Somali situation. W h ile Eth iop ia rej ects claims by th e Islamic Courts and Eritrea of h aving already sent troop s into Somalia, indep endent sources confirm an increased p resence of Eth iop ian forces across th e border. L arger:scale Eth iop ian military actions against th e Islamic Courts cannot be ex cluded, esp ecially if th e TF G of Somalia, located in B aidoa, sh ould furth er w eak en or even collap se.

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• J anuary 1 6 : Prime M inister M eles Z enaw i h eld talk s w ith Somali’s President Abdullah i Y usuf of th e Transitional N ational G overnment on strength ening bilateral relations. • M id:M ay: Th e p residents of Puntland and Somaliland h old in:dep th discussions w ith Eth iop ian government officials, including th e Prime M inister and th e F oreign M inister, on coop eration in th e areas of education, h ealth , infrastructure and trade w ith sp ecial emp h asis on coop eration in border areas. • J une 1 7 : Th e U IC claimed Eth iop ian troop s h ad crossed into South :w estern Somalia. • J une 1 8 : A p ress statement of th e Eth iop ian M inistry of F oreign Affairs p ut forw ard Eth iop ia’s stand on th e current situation in Somalia: i. “ Eth iop ia h as absolutely noth ing to do w ith th e latest figh ting in M ogadish u and oth er tow ns betw een th e militias of th e w arlords and th e Islamic Courts U nion, and it h as h ad no role at w h atever stage of th e crisis, from th e beginning up until now ” . ii. “ At p resent, w h ile Eth iop ian troop s are carefully monitoring th e situation along our border w ith Somalia w ith great vigilance, th ere are no Eth iop ian troop s w ith in Somalia” . iii. “ Th e develop ing situation inside Somalia h as demanded th e very close attention of Eth iop ia. F rom B elet Huen, a Somali tow n close to our border, ex tremists w h ose agenda h as noth ing to do w ith p eace and stability h ave been engaging in p rovocative activities against Eth iop ia. Th at h as demanded Eth iop ia' s vigilance and close monitoring of th e situation” . • J une 2 3 : Eth iop ia reiterated th e urgency of ensuring a lasting p eace and called for th e concerted efforts of IG AD, African U nion, th e Arab L eague and th e international community at large in assisting th e legitimate Transitional G overnment of Somalia. • J une 2 4 : Th e U IC is transformed into th e Council of Islamic Courts (CIC). Sh eik h Hassan Dah ir Aw eys, a top :leader of th e Al:Ittih ad al:Islamia, against w h ich th e Eth iop ians h ad rep eatedly fough t in th e O gaden and inside Somalia in th e 1 9 9 0 s, w as ap p ointed ch airman. • J une 2 5 : A senior Eritrean dip lomat accused Eth iop ia of sending troop s into Somalia to engage in "devious efforts...to create disaccord w ith in th e Islamic Court of Somalia in an attemp t to fan up civil conflict and th ereby crip p le th e p romising p rogress th at h as been made tow ards th e construction of a united Somalia". He accused th e U SA of p ursuing neo:colonialist designs in th e Horn and of using "th e TPL F regime...to w ork as America' s agent in imp lementing th e U S sch eme" in Somalia and in th e Horn in general. • J une 2 7 : M eles Z enaw i accused Eritrea and Somali Islamists of destabiliz ing th e Horn of Africa. He said th at Eth iop ia h ad no immediate security fears from Eritrea or Somalia’s Islamic courts but w ould counter any p otentially h ostile moves by eith er Asmara or ex tremist elements in M ogadish u. Referring to ch arges th at Asmara h as violated a U N w eap ons embargo by arming Islamic militia in Somalia, h e said "Eritrea, in its endeavours to destabiliz e th e region, not only sh ip s armaments, but also sup p orts oth er activities". • J une 2 8 : Sh eik h Hassan Dah ir Aw eys said h e w as ready to "negotiate" w ith Eth iop ia on th e status of th e contested O gaden region. "Eth iop ia mistreats th e Somalis under th eir administration. Th e land w as given to th em by colonialists and w e w ill seek j ustice to resolve th e crisis th at is dividing th e tw o countries". 4 . S u d a n In 2 0 0 5 p olitical, economic and security co:op eration betw een Eth iop ia and Sudan w as furth er strength ened. How ever, in late 2 0 0 5 , tension flared up along th e border in th e M etema/ G allabat region. Incursions of armed raiders from South ern Sudan into G ambela, as w ell as th e infiltration of armed Eth iop ian op p osition group s across th e Sudanese border into th e G ambela, W elega and Amh ara regions, raised Eth iop ian concerns. • J anuary 5 : Th e armed forces in G edaref State took up p osition in th e border strip east of Atbara River to ensure stability during th e re:demarcation of th e j oint border betw een Sudan and Eth iop ia. Th e state governor said h e believed th at th e agreement w ould lead to stability for both Sudanese and Eth iop ian farmers eq ually. During th e p revious w eek a new Sudanese organiz ation called T h e F ash aq ah Lan d s Liber at ion O r g an iz at ion ( F LO ) criticiz ed th e F ash aq ah agricultural lands agreement signed on 1 5 December 2 0 0 5 betw een Sudan and Eth iop ia, and called on th e state’s youth to come out and volunteer to liberate th e occup ied F ash aq ah lands. Th e agreement allow s some Eth iop ian farmers to cultivate Sudanese lands in accordance w ith clear investment conditions.

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• M arch 8 : Th e meeting of th e Eth io:Sudanese J oint B order Develop ment Commission in B ah ir Dar p assed recommendations on security and agriculture as w ell as border trade and both sides "agreed on th e p rincip les and details of th e border demarcation, w h ich h as never been comp leted because of decades of civil w ar" in th e neigh bouring countries. • M arch 1 4 : In a meeting w ith officials of G edaref State, th e Sudanese p resident called for a settlement of th e border disp ute betw een Sudanese and Eth iop ian farmers. • M arch 2 0 : A rep ort by th e legislature of G edaref State indicated "a grow ing Eth iop ian p resence on th e border strip and intensified farming and settlement activities inside Sudanese territories by Eth iop ians w h o are back ed by th e Eth iop ian auth orities". Th e rep ort claimed th at th e Eth iop ians h ad p enetrated as far as 2 8 k ilometres into Sudan and" ex p elled Sudanese nationals from 3 8 villages". It called for th e Sudanese army to "carry out th eir role in th e areas agreed up on w ith th e Eth iop ians" and for a beefed up p olice p resence in border villages, w ith residents serving as volunteer aux iliaries, and urged th e reactivation of j oint security committees w ith th e auth orities across th e border. • Ap ril 1 : Th e Eth iop ian F oreign M inister said th e border row w ith Sudan h as been getting due attention over th e p ast six month s. Th e j oint border commission, set up to resolve border disp utes, h as been disch arging its duties for th e p ast th ree years. • Ap ril 4 :1 2 : Th e Eth iop ian Army entered South ern Sudan in coop eration w ith th e SPL A as p art of op erations to disarm Anuak . Th e op erations follow ed an attack on h igh landers in Dima district of G ambela, and a req uest by Eth iop ia to th e SPL A to h and over 1 8 leading Anuak living in Poch ala, some of Sudanese nationality, accused of sup p orting Anuak rebels in G ambela. Th e Eth iop ian army moved on Poch ala, w h ere over 1 7 ,0 0 0 Anuak refugees are living and O talo, w h ich h as a p op ulation of 1 0 ,0 0 0 Anuak refugees. Th e roads to Poch ala and O talo w ere block ed on th e east by Eth iop ian forces and on th e w est by th e SPL A. How ever, th e Eth iop ian army returned to Eth iop ia w ith out entering Poch ala and th e Anuak refugee camp s. M embers of th e Anuak community stated th at th e disarmament op erations w ere accomp anied by violence against civilians, including k illings, rap es, th e looting of p rop erty and th e burning of h ouses. M embers of th e M urle community are rep orted to h ave tak en advantage of th e disarmament of Anuak by attack ing members of th e community and stealing cattle. • M ay 2 : Th e Sudanese Ambassador to Eth iop ia rep orted th at Eth iop ia and Sudan h ave registered imp ressive ach ievements in p romoting legal trade, transp ortation and communication link s and in determining th eir boundaries th rough p eaceful means. He stated furth er th at th e boundary of Eth iop ia and Sudan is demarcated, but th e actual w ork on th e ground h as p rogressed slow ly due to lack of funds; and th at no maj or p roblem h as arisen over th e years in relation to boundary issues aside from minor, easily solved, sk irmish es on border areas. • M ay 2 3 : Th e Eth io:Sudan j oint border commission meeting p assed decisions in th e areas of administration, security, agriculture, h ealth , trade and investment. Th e Administrator of th e B enish angul:G umuz State and th e G overnor of th e B lue N ile State signed an agreement for th e establish ment of ch eck p oints to control contraband trade.

Coop e rativ e I nte rnational E v e nts • J anuary 1 2 : According to th e M inistry of F inance and Economic Develop ment (M oF ED) Eth iop ia h as received 7 2 0 .4 2 million birr aid and 5 6 5 .4 0 million birr loan during th e p ast five month s. B elgium h as cancelled 1 0 0 p er cent of Eth iop ia’s 1 5 0 .8 2 million birr debt. Eth iop ia obtained 1 8 .1 3 billion birr loan and grants during th e p revious budget year, 1 0 .1 3 billion from multilateral organiz ations, and th e balance being p rovided by develop ment:p artner governments. A 2 .6 billion birr agreement h as also been signed w ith nine governments for th e ex ecution of p reviously reach ed aggregate loan and grant accords. • J anuary 1 7 : Th e M inister of F inance and Economic Develop ment negotiated terms and conditions for an early release of Indian U S$ 1 0 0 million line of credit to Eth iop ia to be utilised for attracting Indian investments and h elp ing Indian comp anies in sugar, p ow er, roads, railw ays, agriculture, h ealth , education and material p roj ects. • J anuary 2 2 : Th e Irish government rej ected calls by th e ch arity G O AL to w ith draw all direct aid to th e Eth iop ian government and to ch annel aid to Eth iop ia th rough oth er means such as non:government agencies rath er th an to give government:to:government sup p ort.

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• J anuary 2 3 : Th e Eth iop ian government, U N and h umanitarian p artners ap p ealed for U S$ 1 6 6 million in emergency food and non:food assistance. O f th e assistance req uested, 6 7 p ercent w ill go tow ards non:food interventions in h ealth and nutrition, w ater, sanitation and agriculture. Eth iop ia h as an emerging crisis in th e p astoral areas w ith an estimated 1 .7 million p eop le facing food insecurity and req uiring assistance. U S$ 1 0 million in non:food assistance is urgently needed to resp ond to th is drough t related emergency. Th e emergency food needs for th e country remain comp aratively low th is year w ith an estimated 2 .6 million p eop le req uiring 3 4 0 ,0 0 0 tonnes of food. • J anuary 2 7 : Th e W orld F ood Programme (W F P) announced th at in 2 0 0 6 it w ill carry out U S$ 2 2 0 millions w orth of h umanitarian and develop ment activities. Some 4 4 0 ,0 0 0 tonnes of emergency food is req uired for 2 0 0 6 , costing around U S$ 1 4 5 million. W F P and th e Disaster Prevention and Prep aredness Agency (DPPA) h ave substantial carryover stock s and contributions amounting to around U S$ 1 2 7 million th at can cover around 7 0 p er cent of th e gross req uirement. Th e outstanding req uirements, estimated to be 1 1 6 ,0 0 0 tonnes, can be met th rough contributions to W F P, th e government or to non:governmental organiz ations. • F ebruary 7 : Eth iop ia and th e U S signed a memorandum of understanding concerning HIV / AIDS p revention, care and treatment activities in Eth iop ia th rough better h armoniz ation, coordination and integration of tw o maj or initiatives (Presidents Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief and th e G lobal F und to F igh t AIDS, Tuberculosis and M alaria). Th ese are p roviding funds totalling over U S$ 8 4 million to combat th e ep idemic in Eth iop ia. • F ebruary 8 : Th e K uw ait F und for Arab Economic Develop ment and Eth iop ia signed a 3 3 0 million birr loan agreement for th e ex p ansion of electric p ow er services in Afar State. • F ebruary 2 2 : Th e Europ ean Commission h as launch ed a €1 0 million civil society fund to be used in a five:year p rogramme to sup p ort Eth iop ian non:state:actors to increase and imp rove th e dialogue w ith th eir constituencies, th e government and oth er stak eh olders and to build th eir cap acity to p articip ate in th e national develop ment p rocess. • F ebruary 2 4 , 2 0 0 6 : Eth iop ia and th e U nited N ations Country team (U N CT) Eth iop ia) signed th e Second U N Develop ment Assistance F ramew ork (U N DAF II), w h ich w ill be imp lemented in th e p eriod from 2 0 0 7 :2 0 1 1 . U nder U N DAF II th e 1 9 members of th e U N CT Eth iop ia w ill carry out develop ment p roj ects valued at U S$ 1 billion w ith a view to enabling th e Eth iop ian G overnment realiz e its develop ment p rogramme in th e coming five years. • F ebruary 2 7 : Eth iop ia and th e African Develop ment B ank (ADB ) signed a U S$ 6 4 .3 2 million grant agreement to finance rural w ater sup p ly and sanitation p rogrammes. Th e ADB h as earmark ed U S$ 4 5 0 million for various p roj ects in Eth iop ia over th e nex t th ree years. • M arch 1 7 : Th e M inistry of Cap acity B uilding said th at th e governments of Eth iop ia and G ermany h ave j ointly allocated €1 8 0 million for th e imp lementation of Engineering Cap acity B uilding Programme (ECB P) during th e coming th ree years. • M arch 2 8 : Th e W orld B ank ’s w ill cancel th e International Develop ment Association (IDA) debt of Eth iop ia under th e M ultilateral Debt Relief Initiative (M DRI) and th e IDA p ortion of debt relief already committed under th e Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative totalling U S$ 3 .6 1 6 billion. Th e debt cancellation w ill be imp lemented as of 1 J uly 2 0 0 6 . • Ap ril 6 : Eth iop ia and Saudi Arabia signed a loan agreement for U S$ 6 .5 3 million. Th e loan w ould be used to p artially finance th e 1 0 0 :k ms Assosa:K urmuk Road Proj ect. • Ap ril 8 :1 3 : Th e 9 th Eth io:Dj ibouti J oint M inisterial meeting w as h eld in Dj ibouti tow n. Eth iop ia and Dj ibouti signed a M emorandum of U nderstanding th at w ould enable th em enh ance th eir ex isting ties and to w ork j ointly in p ort utiliz ation, investment, trade and economy, as w ell as oth er infrastructural develop ment endeavours. Th ey h ave also signed p rotocol accords on culture, sp orts, tourism and information. • Ap ril 2 0 : U SAID announced a U S$ 2 5 .3 million h umanitarian emergency assistance to Eth iop ia. U S$ 1 7 million are to be used for emergency op erations in Somali state th rough Save th e Ch ildren U S (SC/ U SA) and th e W orld F ood Program (W F P), th e remaining U S$ 8 .3 million is non:food assistance to be p rovided for h umanitarian organiz ations targeting nutritional, w ater and sanitation p rograms in Eth iop ia. Th e assistance is in addition to th e over U S$ 3 1 million in h umanitarian emergency food and non:food assistance already p rovided by th e U SA since O ctober 2 0 0 5 . • Ap ril 2 0 : Th e African Develop ment B ank is w riting off th e debt of 1 3 African countries including th at of Eth iop ia , w h ich amounts to U S$ 8 .5 4 billion.

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• Ap ril 2 6 : Th e U N High Commissioner for Human Righ ts, L ouise Arbour, ask ed for th e sp eedy conclusion of an investigation into th e k illing of at least 6 0 p eop le in Eth iop ia during violence related to national elections in 2 0 0 5 . "W e w ill all be look ing w ith great interest at th e findings of th e commission of inq uiry, in p articular regarding th e use of ex cessive force against p eop le in th e country". Sh e also ex p ressed concern over th e nature of th e ch arges against th e arrested op p osition leaders, q uestions of bail and th e ex p ected trial of more th an 1 0 0 officials of th e main op p osition p arty and j ournalists. • Ap ril 2 6 : Th e Ambassadors' Donors G roup (ADG ) (Austria, B ritain, Canada, th e Cz ech Rep ublic, Denmark , F inland, F rance, G ermany, Ireland, Israel, J ap an, th e N eth erlands, Turk ey, N orw ay, Slovak ia, Sp ain, Sw eden, Sw itz erland, th e U nited States, th e African Develop ment B ank , th e Europ ean Commission, th e U nited N ations Develop ment Pro: gramme and th e W orld B ank ) urged th e government and th e CU D to resolve th e p olitical deadlock th rough dialogue in order to nurture th e democratic p rocess and end p olitical recriminations. Th ey also called for th e release of j ailed op p osition p oliticians. • M ay 1 0 : At a j oint meeting of th e Eth iop ian government and th e Donors Assistance G roup (DAG ) to launch a dialogue on governance betw een DAG rep resentatives and th e government, Prime M inister M eles and donor rep resentatives agreed th at th ere are no fundamental differences in concep tualiz ation of democratic governance betw een Eth iop ia and donor countries. Th e Develop ment p artners h ave indicated th e need to p rovide sup p ort in th e contex t of Eth iop ia’s new five:year develop ment p lan: Th e Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Develop ment to End Poverty (PASDEP). Th e tw o p arties agreed to begin dialogue soon on sp ecific governance issues in th e contex t of th e country’s p overty reduction and sustainable develop ment strategy, w h ile continuing dialogue on th e fundamentals. • M ay 2 6 : Th e G erman Ambassador to Eth iop ia said h is country w ould enh ance its assistance to Eth iop ia in its endeavours to bring about good governance and develop ment as w ell as realiz e its p lans on th e education and agriculture sectors. Develop ment activities are being carried out th rough th e G erman Tech nical Coop eration, G erman Develop ment B ank and th e G erman Develop ment Service in addition to th e emergency relief assistance and th e €4 0 million annual budgetary assistance. • M ay 2 6 : Th e W orld B ank and G reat B ritain decided to transfer th eir susp ended budgetary aid to Eth iop ia to p rogrammes to imp rove h ealth , w ater and education for th e country' s p oor during th e nex t tw o years. Th e W orld B ank w ill p lace U S$ 2 1 5 million in a basic:sup p ort fund. B ritain agreed to contribute £9 4 million p ounds (U S$ 1 7 4 .8 million). Th e N eth erlands are also p roviding funds for th e new sch eme and th e Europ ean Commission, Canada, Ireland, Sw eden and th e African Develop ment B ank are also considering contributing. • J une 2 2 : Th e W orld B ank ap p roved U S$ 2 7 4 .7 2 million of International Develop ment Association credit to Eth iop ia to sup p ort p roj ects on rural develop ment (U S$ 5 4 M illion), rural electrification (U S$ 1 3 3 .4 2 million) and road sector develop ment (U S$ 8 7 .3 million). Th e B oard of Directors h as also ap p roved a U S$ 1 5 :million grant to sup p ort th e formulation and imp lementation of p olicy and institutional reforms in th e country' s financial sector. • J une 2 4 : Eth iop ia signed grant agreements w ith J ap an (U S$ 4 .7 3 million to finance p art of th e 2 nd Ph ase of W ater Sup p ly Proj ect in th e South ern Region), and w ith th e W orld B ank .

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O utlook • Th e government of M eles Z enaw i w ill continue to consolidate its internal p olitical p osition and its relations w ith th e donor community. • Th e legal op p osition w ill continue to w ork w ith in th e system but it is also ex p ected to ex p erience furth er internal p roblems. • Th ere is a h igh risk th at th e militant op p osition w ill step up urban bomb attack s and armed infiltration into th e p erip h eries, but th e Eth iop ian security forces w ill remain cap able of k eep ing armed insurgencies in p erip h eral areas under control. • U nresolved communal conflicts migh t flare up sp oradically into armed violence but w ill not p ose a th reat to th e overall stability of th e country. • Th e Eritrean:Eth iop ian conflict w ill remain stable; unresolved levels of tension w ill remain h igh but are unlik ely to result in renew ed military confrontation. • Th ere is a h igh risk of Eth iop ian military involvement in Somalia against th e Islamic Courts U nion, w ith incalculable rep ercussions for th e Horn and w ith in Eth iop ia. • Th ere is a low risk th at th e border issues w ith Sudan and K enya w ill negatively imp act on th e p ositive relations betw een th ese tw o countries.

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A c ronym s: All Eth iop ian Democratic :M edh in AEDP:M edh in All Eth iop ian U nity Party AEU P Eth iop ian Patriotic U nited F ront EPU F Eth iop ian Democratic L eague EDL Eth iop ian Peop les Patriotic F ront EPPF Eth iop ian Peop les Revolutionary Democratic F ront EPRDF Eth iop ian Peop le' s Revolutionary Party EPRP G ambela Peop les L iberation M ovement G PL M N ational Election B oard of Eth iop ia N EB E O gaden N ational L iberation F ront O N L F O romo F ederalist Democratic M ovement O F DM O romo L iberation F ront O L F Rainbow Eth iop ia, M ovement for Democracy and Social J ustice REM DSJ Sidama L iberation F ront SL F South ern Eth iop ian Peop les' Democratic M ovement SEPDM Tigray Peop le' s L iberation F ront TPL F U nited Eth iop ian Democratic F orces U EDF U nited Eth iop ian Democratic :M edh in U EDP:M edh in U nited N ations M ission in Eth iop ia and Eritrea U N M EE

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W h o a r e w e? F AST International is th e early w arning p rogram of sw issp eace, based in B ern, Sw itz erland. Th e p rogram is funded and utiliz ed by an international consortium of develop ment agencies consisting of th e Austrian Develop ment Agency (ADA), Canadian International Develop ment Agency (CIDA), Sw edish International Develop ment Coop eration Agency (Sida), Sw iss Agency for Develop ment and Coop eration (SDC), and th e U nited States Agency for International Develop ment (U SAID).

W h a t d o w e w a nt to a c h i ev e? F AST International aims at enh ancing p olitical decision mak ers’ and th eir offices’ ability to identify critical develop ments in a timely manner so th at coh erent p olitical strategies can be formulated to eith er p revent or limit destructive effects of violent conflict or identify w indow s of op p ortunity for p eacebuilding.

H ow d o w e w or k ? F AST International uses both q ualitative and q uantitative meth ods, w ith th e combination of meth ods being determined in each case by customer needs. Th e centerp iece of F AST International is th e collection of single coop erative and conflictive events by means of a w eb:based softw are, ap p lied by local staff using a coding sch eme called IDEA (Integrated Data for Event Analysis), w h ich is based on th e W EIS (W orld Interaction Survey) coding sch eme. Th e monitoring by F AST International is done indep endently from W estern media coverage, th us p roviding for a constant influx of information. Th is information is collected by F AST International’s ow n L ocal Information N etw ork s (L IN s). Th e q uantitative emp irical analysis is based on comp osed indicators develop ed w ith in th e IDEA framew ork . Since even th e most p rofound q uantitative analysis req uires interp retation, F AST International coop erates w ith renow ned country/ area ex p erts.

W h a t a r e ou r p r od u c ts? F AST International offers different early w arning p roducts tailored to customer needs. Th e only standard p roduct available to th e general p ublic is th e F AST U p date, w h ich p rovides th e reader w ith an overview of develop ments on a semi:annual basis. It consists of th ree to five tension barometers (grap h s), disp laying coop erative and conflictive develop ments, w h ich are analyz ed by F AST’s country/ area ex p erts on th e basis of sp ecific indicators. W h enever maj or ch anges occur in one of th e countries or regions under scrutiny, F AST releases Sp ecial U p dates, w h ich follow th e structure of th e regular F AST U p dates. F AST U p dates are available in eith er h ard cop y, in electronic form on th e resp ective country p age or by subscrip tion.

W h i c h c ou ntr i es d o w e c u r r entl y m oni tor ? A f r i c a : Angola, B urundi, DRC/ K ivu region, Eth iop ia, M adagascar, M oz ambiq ue, Rw anda, Somalia A si a : Afgh anistan, India/ K ash mir, K az ak h stan, K yrgyz stan, N ep al, Pak istan, Taj ik istan, U z bek istan E u r op e: Armenia, Az erbaij an, B osnia:Herz egovina, G eorgia, K osovo, M acedonia, Russian F ederation/ N orth Caucasus region, Serbia:M ontenegro