COLLIERS SEMI-ANNUAL RETAIL | SINGAPORE | H1 2018 | 28 AUGUST 2018 RECALIBRATING RETAIL JM Tan | Senior Analyst This report has been updated as of 28 August 2018 and supersedes all previous versions. H1 2018 2018F 2018-2022F Summary/ Half-Year Full Year Annual Average Recommendations > We foresee a two-tier market over 2018- Singapore’s retail vacancy 2022, with demand ramping up for malls contraction combined with a with sizable catchments and for ground- 226,000 sq ft 1.5 million sq ft 841,000 sq ft floor retail spaces, while total demand lags. sustained rental decline is Demand evidence of the sector’s re- > Elevated new supply in late-2018 (est. 3% of balancing act as landlords trade stock), which is well-distributed across off historically high rents for Singapore. Island-wide supply pipelines 226,000 sq ft 2.3 million sq ft 851,000 sq ft increased occupancy. Supply should taper off over 2019-2022. > Activity-based tenants made HOH Change/ YOY Change/ Annual Average Growth/ a comeback in H1, as Mid-Year Year-End End-2022F landlords sought to inject > Overall rents fell 1.7% YOY. Only ground-floor more lifestyle components rents seem to have stabilised – with Orchard +1.7%1.0pp +1.3% +1.0% and entice patrons back to Road flat YOY; Regional Centres +0.3% YOY. malls. > We expect ground-floor rents, particularly in Rent SGD40.39* SGD41.15* SGD42.60* (psf pm) Orchard Road (SGD40.39 psf pm), to lead the > A digital-ready strategy, gradual rental recovery over 2018-2022. niche tenant mix, and ability to capture future catchment > Island-wide vacancy to rise in 2018 on large -0.1pp +1.0pp -0.1pp growth also remain crucial supply influx, but to trend down to below differentiators for landlords. 7% vacancy as retail landlords trade off high 7.3% 8.4% 7.0% Vacancy rents for increased occupancy. > We view retail properties with a sizable catchment, -0.1pp -0.2pp -0.1pp well-differentiated tenant > We expect yields to remain largely flat over mix, or potential for future Yields/ 2018 through 2022, with room for further catchment growth as Capital yield compression. 4.7% 4.6% 4.4% Values compelling investment Source: Colliers International Singapore Research, URA opportunities. *Refers to ground-floor rents in prime shopping malls within the Orchard Road district. Note: USD1 to SGD1.365 as at 30 June 2018. 1 sq m = 10.764 sq ft. “pp” refers to percentage point. COLLIERS SEMI-ANNUAL RETAIL | SINGAPORE | H1 2018 | 21 AUGUST 2018 LEASING MARKET AND RENTS Singapore Retail | Rental Indices 105 Soft rental market, with some stabilisation in ground- floor rents 95 The retail rental market generally remained soft in H1 2018. Based on Urban Redevelopment Authority’s (URA) data, overall Central Region rents fell by 1.7% YOY in H1 2018, chalking up a long-running decline over the past 13 quarters. However, these rental declines have slowed in the past two years. Central Region (overall) 85 Regional Centres (ground-floor) According to Colliers International's research tracking ground-floor rents, Index (2011=100) Orchard Road ground-floor rents stayed flat YOY at SGD40.39 (USD29.59) Orchard Road (ground-floor) psf pm during H1 2018, while the Regional Centres saw a marginal uptick (+0.3% YOY) to SGD33.50 (USD24.54) psf pm. This marked some stabilisation 75 in ground-floor rents. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1 We expect ground-floor rents to lead the gradual recovery, but overall retail rents should continue flattening out and stabilise over 2018-2022 as sector Source: Colliers International Singapore Research, URA headwinds precipitated by e-commerce have not materially subsided. Singapore Retail | Net Supply, Absorption & Vacancy Improving occupancy as landlords concede lower Million sq ft Vacancy rents in favour of filling up malls 2.5 12% 10% Island-wide retail vacancy decreased by 0.2ppt QOQ to 7.3% in Q2 2018. On 2.0 a YOY basis, vacancy has fallen by 0.8ppt since Q2 2017. The fall in retail 8% 1.5 vacancy combined with a sustained rental decline is evidence of the sector’s 6% re-balancing act as retail landlords trade off historically high rents for more 1.0 stable occupancy amidst challenging market conditions. 4% 0.5 Notwithstanding the anticipated vacancy spike in 2018 due to a large 2% injection of supply, the overall retail vacancy rate appears to be steadily 0.0 0% trending down to below 7%, a notable improvement from the peak vacancy levels in excess of 8% during 2016-17. -0.5 -2% We advise landlords to be flexible and practical about setting rents in order Net Supply (LHS) Net Absorption (LHS) Vacancy (RHS) to support occupancy in the quarters ahead. Source: Colliers International Singapore Research, URA 2 COLLIERS SEMI-ANNUAL RETAIL | SINGAPORE | H1 2018 | 21 AUGUST 2018 Singapore | Retail Sales Index (Constant Prices) and Tourist Arrivals Singapore | Retail Sales Sub-Segments YOY % change YOY % change 15% 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1 10% 10% 5.6% 1.4% 5% 0% -0.8% 0% -2.4% -2.1% -4.4% -5.9% -5% -10% -10% -20% Retail Sales Medical Wearing Computers & Watches & Department Food Retailers Index (ex Goods & Apparel & Telecoms Jewellery Stores Motor Toiletries Footwear Equipment Tourist Arrivals Retail Sales Index (ex Motor Vehicles) Vehicles) Source: Colliers International Singapore Research, Singapore Tourism Board, Department of Statistics Source: Colliers International Singapore Research, Department of Statistics Retail sales declined, but remain The Wearing Apparel & Footwear segment also Consistently strong performance by the tourism appeared to be turning the corner (+1.4% YOY) sector cushioned by tourist arrivals into positive territory, following declines during Tourist arrivals have risen steadily since 2015. 2016-2017. In June 2018, the retail sales index (excluding During H1 2018, total tourist arrivals clocked in motor vehicles) at constant prices declined 0.8% Meanwhile, the food and beverages (F&B) at 9.19 million, a healthy 7.9% YOY increase from YOY. There were mixed performances among the services index exhibited some recovery the same period last year. This re-affirms our retail sales sub-segments. sentiment in June 2018, with four out of five expectations for the rental recovery to be led by Computer & Telecommunications Equipment fell components seeing YOY growth. ground-floor rents in the Orchard Road shopping belt, which is a mainstay with tourists. sharply (-4.4% YOY) amidst a dearth of new Fast Food outlets saw continued robust growth gadget launches, undoing its strong performance momentum (+8.2% YOY), pushing the overall H1 2018 tourism growth was driven by in 2017. Food Retailer sales fell 2.1% YOY, performance of the F&B segment into positive substantially increased arrivals from the chalking up a cumulative fall of 28.5% since territory (+1.6% YOY). American and European markets (+14.5% YOY January 2016. and +10.0% YOY respectively). Nevertheless, Asia This aligns with most mall operators’ strategy of continued to make up the greatest proportion of However, there was sustained strength in the increasing the allocation of floor space towards tourists (77%) during H1 2018, with China, Medical Goods & Toiletries segment (+5.6% F&B providers, albeit with an eventual ceiling Indonesia and India remaining as the top three YOY). due to market saturation. feeder markets respectively. 3 COLLIERS SEMI-ANNUAL RETAIL | SINGAPORE | H1 2018 | 21 AUGUST 2018 Beyond shopping and F&B; Meanwhile, the gym operators Fitness First and Supply (Planned & Under Construction) GymmBoxx opened new centers at SingPost activity-based tenants led the Centre and JCube respectively. foray during H1 2018 Outside Downtown In January 2018, the Australian game arcade Central Core, 19% Activity-based tenants made a comeback in the operator Timezone opened its flagship outlet at Region, 44% retail scene in H1 2018, as landlords sought to Vivocity. At 12,000 sq ft (1,115 sq m), it is also Orchard, inject more lifestyle components and entice the largest game arcade in Singapore, complete 5% patrons back to malls. with a mini bowling alley and bumper car 4.4 million sq ft stations. Timezone is also planning to open its (NLA) Rest of This trend was observed in the prime shopping eleventh outlet in Jurong Point. Central belt of Orchard Road as well as suburban Area, 5% districts. In eastern Singapore, the newly-opened Although activity-based tenants are likely to sign Bedok Djitsun Mall welcomed amusement centre below-market rents, they serve as a strategic Fringe of Fat Cat Arcade as an anchor tenant. The Korean addition to the tenant mix that can generate foot Central carom billiards bar Thirsty4Balls opened its first traffic, capture valuable time spent by shoppers Region, 26% outlet in Singapore at The Cathay along Orchard in the mall, as well as draw new shopper Road. segments. In turn, these should yield spillover Source: Colliers International Singapore Research, URA benefits for other tenants. Fitness First @ SingPost Centre Vacancy, Selected Leases & New Supply | H1 2018 Isaac Toast @ Plaza Singapura NORTH Q3 2018 | 12,000 sq ft | Gym Q2 2018 | F&B | New-to-market 8.5% PLQ Mall Est. TOP Q1 2019 | 340,000 sq ft Thirsty4balls @ The Cathay Q2 2018 | Entertainment NORTH-EAST 5.5% Century Square Mall Completed in Q2 2018 | 210,000 sq ft GymBoxx @ JCube EAST WEST Q3 2018 | 6,000 sq ft | Gym ORCHARD 5.7% 6.5% 6.3% Project Jewel Est. TOP 2019 | 1.44 million sq ft Jollibee @ Jurong East MRT CENTRAL Q2 2018 | F&B (ex. Orchard) 7.5% Fat Cat Arcade @ Bedok Djitsun Mall Bedok Djitsun Mall Q2 2018 | Entertainment Completed in Q2 2018 | 48,000 sq ft Timezone @ Vivocity Legend: Q2 2018 | 12,000 sq ft | Selected tenant movement Entertainment Funan VivoCity (extension) Est.