Coventry & Warwickshire's Commuting Movements

COVENTRY & WARWICKSHIRE’S COMMUTING MOVEMENTS

22/01/2015

Quality Management

Issue/revision Issue 1 Revision 1 Revision 2 Revision 3 Remarks Date Prepared by Renee Van Baar / Matthew Tozer Signature Checked by Signature Authorised by Signature Project number 70001991 Report number File reference

Project number: 70001991

Dated: 22/01/2015 2 Revised:

COVENTRY & WARWICKSHIRE’S COMMUTING MOVEMENTS

22/01/2015

Client Coventry City Counciul

Consultant WSP One Queens Drive Birmingham B5 4PJ UK

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Table of Contents

Executive Summary...... 5 1 Introduction ...... 6 1.1 Study Area ...... 6 1.2 Geographic boundaries ...... 8 2 Coventry Statistics ...... 10 2.2 Population Statistics ...... 10 2.3 Employment Characteristics ...... 11 2.4 Transport Statistics ...... 18 2.5 Journey to Work Analysis ...... 24 3 Coventry Travel to Work Patterns ...... 37 3.1 Summary of Commuting Movements Around Coventry ...... 37 3.2 Coventry as the origin of workers ...... 39 3.3 Method of Travel to Work from Coventry ...... 44 3.4 Coventry as the destination of workers ...... 47 3.5 Method of Travel to Work in Coventry ...... 54 3.6 Employment areas in CoventryError! Bookmark not defined. 4 Warwickshire Statistics ...... 57 4.2 Warwickshire Population Statistics ...... 57 4.3 Warwickshire Employment Statistics ...... 57 4.4 Warwickshire Transport Statistics ...... 65 4.5 Geographic Transport Trends...... 73 5 Warwickshire’s Travel to Work Patterns ...... 88 5.1 Overall Trends ...... 88 5.2 Warwickshire as the Origin of Workers ...... 88 5.3 Warwickshire as a Destination of Workers ...... 92 5.4 Travel within Warwickshire ...... 95 6 Forecasts ...... 96 6.1 Scenarios Utilised ...... 96 6.2 Coventry Trends ...... 96 6.3 Warwickshire Trends ...... 99 7 Conclusions ...... 103 Appendix 1: Additional Employment Statistics (Coventry) ...... 104

Appendices

No table of contents entries found.

Project number: 70001991

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Executive Summary This study considers Travel To Work Patterns in Coventry using Census of Population data Etc.

1 Introduction

1.1 Study Area 1.1.1 This report comprises data for the Coventry and Warwickshire districts that in turn comprise of: Ŷ Coventry City Council Ŷ North Warwickshire District Council Ŷ Nuneaton and Bedworth District Council Ŷ Rugby District Council Ŷ Stratford-on-Avon District Council Ŷ Warwick District Council 1.1.2 Figure 1 shows the study area.

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Figure 1.1: The Study Area

1.2 Geographic boundaries 1.2.1 Between the 2001 and 2011 censuses, the geographic boundaries of some census areas have been redrawn to reflect changes in population. Within the Coventry Local Authority area, the 2001 and 2011 ward boundaries have changed significantly, which makes the direct comparison between census data from 2001 and 2011 difficult (see Figure 1.2). Therefore, this report makes the comparison based upon the middle layer super output area (MSOA) level. A map showing the MSOAs and their numbers is included below as Figure 1.3. Figure 1.1: Coventry Ward Boundary Changes

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Figure 1.2: Coventry MSOA Boundaries

2 Coventry Statistics 2.1.1 This section seeks to provide a context to the report covering the long term transport trends in Coventry. Data has been sourced, predominantly, from NOMIS Web and covers the years between 1981 and 2011 where available.

2.2 Population Statistics 2.2.1 As shown in Figure 2.1, Coventry’s population has increased by approximately 10,000 residents from 1981 to 2011, allowing the city to recover from a decline between 1981 and 1991. Employment figures show a different trend, and will be discussed in more detail in section 2.3. 2.2.2 In terms of location, Figure 2.2 shows that the largest increases in population numbers have been in the City Centre, followed by the area to its immediate North. Whilst population has increased overall, some areas have seen decline over the last census period, with the North East and South West both suffering some reductions in population levels. Figure 2.1: Population and Employment 1981-2011

350,000

300,000

250,000

200,000 Total Residents

150,000 Number of People 100,000 Employed

50,000

0 1981 1991 2001 2011

2.2.3 Figure 2.1 illustrates the trends in population and employment in Coventry between 1981 and 2011. The city’s population shows a decline between 1981 and 1991, only recovering to pre-1981 levels in 2011. The number of people in employment, meanwhile, declined until 2001 before beginning to rise at the same rate as the population. This possibly offers a context as to why the number of people identified as not in employment off relatively high in E2.

Project number: 70001991

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Figure 2.2: Change in Resident Population within Coventry

2.2.4 Figure 2.2 shows the change in resident population across the city in absolute and percentage terms. It supports Figure 2.1 in showing that the population of the city as a whole is growing, but shows that in some areas that it is declining. The largest growth in resident numbers is in the city centre and around the surrounding neighbourhoods whilst there are reductions in the inner wards to the South and South West. The largest individual drop, however, is to the North East of the city.

2.3 Employment Characteristics 2.3.1 As seen in figure 2.1, employment in Coventry suffered from a decline between 1981 and 2001, with recovery only coming from 2001 to 2011. Looking at the employment figures in more detail reveal several trends. Firstly, whilst employment has recovered from 2001 and 2011, male employment has actually fallen overall from 1981-2011 with the recovery seen being carried by female employment. 2.3.2 Another feature of the employment recovery has been a shift in employment sector. The most marked decrease has been ‘real estate activities’, followed by Manufacturing and Professional, Scientific and Technical jobs. This possibly reflects the ongoing decline in the city’s car manufacturing industry with the loss of Brown’s Lane Jaguar Plant in the North West of the City and the loss of the Ryton Peugeot just outside the city’s south eastern boundary. These job losses have been replaced by a wide spread of job types, as seen in figure 2.4, which might increase the resilience of the city’s economy going forward. 2.3.3 Curiously, despite the loss of two major plants which might be expected to hit their areas of the city, the geographies of employment in the city actually remain broadly the same between 2001 and 2011.

Figure 2.3: No. Coventry Residents Employed by Gender

80,000 d e

y 70,000 o l p 60,000 m E

t 50,000 n e d

i 40,000 s

e Male R 30,000 f o

Female r

e 20,000 b m

u 10,000 N 0 1981 1991 2001 2011 Year

2.3.4 Figure 2.3 expands on the employment element of Figure 2.1, showing the gender make up of those employed in the city. It is interesting to note that female employment has continued rising, even whilst male employment has stayed relatively stable, declining until 2001 but recovering slightly in 2011; however not returning to 1981 levels. Figure 2.4: 2001-2011 Employment by Sector

30000

25000 2001 Employment in Sector 20000 2011 15000 Employment in Sector 10000

5000

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Agriculture, forestry and fishing

Mining and quarrying

2001 % Employment in Sector Manufacturing

Electricity, gas, steam, air conditioning supply and water. Construction

Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motor cycles 2011 % Employment in Sector Hotels and Restaurants

Transport, Storage and Communications

Finance and Insurance

0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00%

2.3.5 Figures 2.4 and 2.5 also expand on Figure 2.1, showing the distribution of employment by sector and its changes between 2001 and 2011. This suggests that the decline in manufacturing noted in previous iterations of this report has continued, however, for the first time, gains in other sectors function to counterbalance the decline. The sectors with the largest growth are “Wholesale and Retail trade, Repair of Motor Vehicle” and “Transport and Storage” both of which have strong links to an effective transport system as well as the also growing “accommodation and food services activities”. Curiously, the sectors which sees the largest reduction in people employed is real estate services alongside a drop of more than half in “professional, scientific and technical activities” Note: The sector headings are a hybrid of 2001 and 2011 census titles as the reporting techniques changed between the two, altering the way in which subjects are grouped. Also, the above chart only shows key sectors.

Figure 2.6: Percentage Unemployed by Social Class

L15 Full-time students 8. Never worked and long-term unemployed 7. Routine occupations 6. Semi-routine occupations 5. Lower supervisory and technical… 4. Small employers and own account workers 3. Intermediate occupations 2. Lower managerial, administrative and… 1. Higher managerial, administrative and… 0 5 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 % % 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 Unemployment % % % % % % % %

Percentage of Social Class Unemployed

2.3.6 Figure 2.6 looks at unemployment in Coventry in the context of ‘social class’. It shows that those most likely to remain unemployed are those who have never worked or have suffered long term unemployment, whilst full time students are also less likely to find work in the city.

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Figure 2.7: Percentage of Population in Employment

2.3.7 Figure 2.7 shows the percentage of people in each MSOA who are employed. Coventry is shown as having a lower employment level then the surrounding areas and levels of employment in the city remain stable between 2001 and 2011. As supported by Figure 2.8 (below) the lowest employment area is on the Stoney Stanton Road corridor.

Figure 2.8: Percentage of the Population Not Working

2.3.8 Figure 2.8 shows the percentage of people not working for any reason in each MSOA. As suggested by the findings of Figure 2.1, the number of jobs in the area has started to follow the increase in population, leading to a reduction in the number of people out of work in the area. The ‘not working’ ‘hotspots’ remain consistent, however, with the highest percentages of people not in work focusing on the Stoney Stanton Road corridor and the South East of the City, despite the latter area also showing one of the highest levels of employment in the preceding map. There is also a small increase in the percentage of the population out of work in the South East of the City, possibly accounted for by the closure of Peugeot’s Ryton plant.

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Figure 2.9: Percentage of the Population who are Students

2.3.9 Figure 2.9 shows the percentage of the residents in the MSOA’s who are full time students. The figures show an increase in the student population within the city with the focus upon the South West (where the University is located) and the City Centre (where most activities are located). The impact of the student population, who are less likely to own cars, can be seen in Figures 2.23 & 2.24 which demonstrate rising levels of people walking and cycling within those MSOA’s and their neighbours.

2.4 Transport Statistics 2.4.1 Having reviewed the background changes and movements in the city’s population, this section studies how travel to work has changed within the city. 2.4.2 The transport mode share trends in the city show two marked periods. From 1981 to 2001, ‘sustainable’ modes such as bus, walking, cycling and car sharing all decline. Then, between 2001 and 2011, all three either slow in their decline or show slight increases. Parallel to this, 1981 to 2001 showed a sharp increase in car usage before the growth plateau between 2001 and 2011. Curiously, car ownership shows steady growth from 1981 to 2011, not reflecting the slowing in the use of car as a mode of travel to work, suggesting that it might be in increasing use for other purposes. Two modes which showed consistent growth were working from home (rising from a 1.44% share in 1981 to 7.35% in 2011) and rail, rising from 1.05% in 1981 to 2.17% in 2011. 2.4.3 Over the 2001 to 2011 period, there has also been an overall increase in the distance people travel by almost all modes with the percentage of short (2km or less) trips declining to be replaced by longer ones, with exact lengths varying by mode. E.g. people travelling on foot travel make more trips of 2-5km now, whilst rail passengers now make more trips of 60km plus. This trend towards longer trips possibly reflects the rise in importance in ‘Commuters out of Coventry’ shown in section 3.1. Figure 2.10: Mode of Transport by Commuters in Coventry

60.00% Mode of Transport by Commuters in Coventry

50.00%

40.00% e g a t n 30.00% e c r e

P 20.00%

10.00%

0.00% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 Work mainly at Train, Bus, minibus Driving a car or Passenger in a Bicycle On foot All other or from home underground, or coach van car or van methods of metro, light travel to work

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2.4.4 Figure 2.10 depicts the primary method of travel to work, by percentage, over the last four censuses. Several trends can be observed from this. The most prominent feature is that the percentage of people driving their own car increased substantially between 1981 and 2001, only to stabilise and even decline a small amount between 2001 and 2011. Over the same period the percentage of people travelling as passengers has remained comparatively flat, declining slightly, suggesting an increase in the number of single-occupancy vehicle trips originating in the city. 2.4.5 Offsetting the increase in the car driver’s modal share, the modes which have lost the largest percentage are bus, cycling and walking, the former two having almost halved in modal share between 1981 and 2001 (24.09%-11.49% and 4.63% to 2.84% respectively) . Possibly reflecting the slowdown in growth of the car modal share, all three modes have seen a decrease in their rate of decline between 2001 and 2011, with ‘on foot’ modal share actually increasing by a small amount (0.28%). 2.4.6 Of the remaining modes, the main ‘winners’ are working from home and the train and metro based modes of transport. The number of people working from home has more than trebled over the study period, overtaking the number of people cycling and the number of people travelling by ‘other’ modes (e.g. motorbike). Rail has also doubled over the study period, with particular growth between 2001 and 2011 possibly induced, at least by the introduction of the Very High Frequency timetable and other improvements to rail services originating from the city. Despite this impressive increase in share, it remains the minority mode overall. Figure 2.11: Number of Drivers by Gender

50000 s r

e 40000 v i r D 30000 f o

e 20000

b Male Drivers m u 10000 Female Drivers N 0

Year

2.4.7 Figure 2.11 adds detail to the dominant car and van mode share percentages shown in Figure. In line with the rise in driving as a modal share, the number of people driving in the city has increased over the study period, with a particularly notable increase in the number of female drivers of more than 300%, from 10,000 to 34,428. The number of male drivers also shows a steady increase, though to a less dramatic extent from 35,570 to 43,967. This is still an increase of more than 8,000 vehicles on the road, however, so should not be underestimated.

Figure 2.12: Car Trips/Job ratio

70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% Male Trips/Job 30.00% Female Trips/Job 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 1981 1991 2001 2011

2.4.8 Figure 2.12 continues the analysis of car usage, showing that the number of trips per job for both genders saw a steady rise between 1981 and 2001, with female car driver growth in particular rising faster than the female employment figures, leading to a doubling in the ratio of female car based TTW choice compared to the number of jobs. From 2001 to 2011, however, and despite the increase in the number of drivers in that period, the number of jobs actually increases faster than the number of people whose dominant travel to work modal choice is car, reducing the ratio of car drivers compared to people in work. This possibly explains the slight decline in car’s modal share in Figure 2.10. Figure 2.13: Total Cars Owned by Coventry Residents

150,000 s r a C

f 100,000 o

r e b 50,000 m u N 0 1981 1991 2001 2011 Year

2.4.9 Figure 2.13 shows that, as might be expected, with an increase in car’s modal share and the rising number of drivers, the number of cars in the city has also increased steadily. Interestingly, whilst car’s modal share plateaued between 2001 and 2011, the number of cars continued to increase. To study this further, Figure 2.14 was created studying the relationship between the number of cars per resident and the number of cars per resident travelling dominantly by car.

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Figure 2.14: Relationship of Cars Owned to Residents and Drivers

1.5 o i t

a 1

R Cars/Residents

0.5 Cars/Drivers

0 1981 1991 2001 2011 Year

2.4.10 Figure 2.14 looks into the details of the preceding two tables in greater detail, considering whether the increase in the number of cars and residents driver to work simply reflects the arrival of new people within the city or whether there’s a growth in the number of cars owned individually. The results are curious, and possibly bear further study. Between 1981 and 2011 the number of cars per resident has increased steadily from 0.25 to 0.4. The number of cars compared to the number of residents using them as their primary travel to work mode, however, has remained nearly completely flat and actually declined slightly in the period. On the basis that the drive to work data is based upon travel to work information, this possibly suggests that the increased numbers of cars shown in Figure 2.15 are actually intended for recreational or shopping purposes. Figure 2.15: Cars Per Household

Cars per Household 1.2

0.8

0.6 Cars per Household 0.4

0.2

0 1981 1991 2001 2011

Figure 2.16: Cars Per Household

140,000

120,000

100,000

80,000 Total Households 60,000 Total Cars

40,000

20,000

0 1981 1991 2001 2011

2.4.11 Figures 2.15 and 2.16 shows the relationship between the number of cars owned by Coventry residents and the number of households within the City. It can be observed that the 2011 census is the first within the study period whereby there’s actually an average of one or greater cars per household across the city, with the number of cars increasing at a faster rate than the number of households within the city. It’s also interesting to note that both trends show steady growth since 1981, unlike the numbers of people in employment shown in Figure 2.1. This increase in car per household increasing despite a slowdown in the growth in car work trips could suggest a rise in the number of people using cars for non-work trips. Figure 2.17: Change in Average Number of Cars Per Household 2001-2011

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2.4.12 Figure 2.17 illustrates the change in the number of cars per household across the city between 2001 and 2011. The City Centre shows a small decline in the number of cars per household, whilst the remainder of the city shows increases. Figure 2.18: Proportional Percentage Change in Distances Travelled by Mode

On foot 60km and over Bicycle 40km to less than 60km 30km to less than 40km Passenger in a car or van 20km to less than 30km Driving a car or van 10km to less than 20km 5km to less than 10km Bus, minibus or coach 2km to less than 5km Train, underground, metro, light rail Less than 2km or tram

-8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00%

2.4.13 Figure 2.18 shows the changing relationship of mode to trip length made by residents within the city. Across all of the modes, it would appear to show that trip lengths are increasing, with all modes showing a reduction in the number of trips less than 2km. Trips between 2km and 5km have also reduced for people driving (the majority mode, as shown in Figure 2.10) or using rail or bus transport. 2.4.14 Trips on foot have seen a general increase in length, with the most noticeable growth being in people travelling 2-5km to work, then 5-10km, then a slighter increase the further the distance with the anomalous exception that walking trips over 60km have increased by 1%. Whether this particular statistic is accurate remains open to interpretation. 2.4.15 Cycle trips show a similar pattern to walking, except with the increase in trips being mainly focused between 5km and 10km, with 2-5km coming next. This is the kind of distance where growth in cycling trips would expect to be seen, being a journey time between 15 and 30 minutes in duration. 2.4.16 Car or van passengers show the greatest proportional increase of all, in people travelling to work between 10km and 20km. This is followed by a smaller increase in all other greater distances and a slight decrease in people travelling between 5km and 10km. This pattern makes for a curious contrast with people driving a car of van, whereby, whilst showing the same general increase in trip lengths the increases and decreases alike are considerably less polarised, with the main increase coming in trips between 20 and 30km. 2.4.17 The distance bracket in which bus, minibus and coach trips gain the most is that between 5km and 10km, followed by 60km plus. This would suggest an increase in the use of local services in a hop- on, hop-of fashion, followed by a greater number of long-distance coach trips. 2.4.18 Finally, rail trip distance bracket increases are predominantly grouped into the 10km to 20km bracket and that over 60km, the latter possibly triggered by an increase in the importance of the London market following West Coast Mainline journey time and frequency improvements. It is the only mode to show a reduction in trips between 20km and 30km.

2.5 Journey to Work Analysis 2.5.1 The journey to work analysis is divided into two sections. Firstly, Figures 2.19 through to 2.24 consider the travel modes utilised by residents of Coventry. Figures 2.25 to 2.30 then go on to consider the modes utilised by people working in Coventry. 2.5.2 In terms of resident modal share, several trends can be gleaned. Firstly, as observed elsewhere mode shares for car sharing, walking and cycling have broadly declined across the city with a general increase in car’s modal share replacing this. This trend isn’t without its exceptions, however. Around the City Centre, a decrease in car driving’s modal share can be seen with a concurrent increase in walking and rail’s modal shares. The South West of the city also sees an increase in walking and bicycle mode shares, concentrating on the area adjacent to the university. It is also worth noting that car sharing, walking and bus use show particular strength on the B4109 and Foleshill road corridors, where there’s the largest percentage of people out of work, though even here there’s a slight decline in modal share in favour of car and, to a lesser degree, rail. 2.5.3 In terms of people accessing jobs within Coventry, both from within Coventry and outside, there are also some noteworthy trends. Firstly, curiously, despite the increase in car ownership and drivers in the city, the mode share of car driving as a means to access jobs in the city actually seems to be in a slight, but wide-spread, decline, particularly around the City Centre. This is possibly due to the simultaneous increases in walking and rail mode shares to access jobs in that area. Car passengers also show a slight decline over the time period. In other locations, outcomes are patchier. Walking outside the city centre broadly declines in modal share, as does bus, though the latter does make some gains in the North East. Cycle mode share also shows a broad decline as a way of accessing jobs, with a shift from areas to the North of the centre attracting trips to the South West, notably where the University is located.

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Figure 2.19: Percentage of Residents Travelling As Car Drivers

Figure 2.19 shows the number of residents in each MSOA who drive to work as a percentage and an absolute number in 2001 and 2011. In line with the census data the modal share remains quite stable with a small gain in the west of the city balanced by small reductions in the City Centre areas. Curiously, the absolute numbers tell a different story, with the numbers of working residents driving increasing in the centre and declining in west. This reflects a shift in population, with more people living in the centre overall.

Figure 2.20: Percentage of Residents Travelling to Work as Car Passengers

2.5.4 Figure 2.20 shows the number of residents in each MSOA who travel to work as a car passenger as a percentage and an absolute number in 2001 and 2011. The change between 2001 and 2011 shown is curious. As per the census, the overall number of passenger trips continues to decline across the city at large, particularly in the west where T1 showed the number of drivers increasing most strongly. There is, however, one area to the North East of the centre displaying an increase in passenger trips in both percentage and absolute terms.

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Figure 2.21: Percentage of Residents Travelling to Work by Bus

2.5.5 Figure 2.21 shows the number of residents in each MSOA who travel to work by bus as a percentage and an absolute number in 2001 and 2011. As might be expected based upon the census outputs in Figure, the map shows a general slight decline in the number of residents travelling to work by bus, with the predominant shift away being in MSOAs to the west and south- west of the city.

Figure 2.22: Percentage of Residents Travelling to Work by Train or Metro

2.5.6 Figure 2.22 shows the number of residents in each MSOA who travel to work by train or metro as a percentage and an absolute number in 2001 and 2011. As discussed in Figure, rail remains the minority share, however it has increased rapidly in the last 10 years, evidenced by the increase in its modal share amongst residents in the South West of the city, unsurprisingly focused on MSOA’s within direct proximity to the railway station but with increases seen across the city radiating outward.

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Figure 2.23: Percentage of Residents Travelling to work by Bicycle

2.5.7 Figure 2.23 shows the number of residents in each MSOA who travel to work on a bicycle as a percentage and an absolute number in 2001 and 2011. This reflects the results of Figure 2.10 in that, in general, the modal share and absolute number of residents cycling to work has declined in modal share across the city, particularly in the North Eastern MSOA’s. However, in the west, the absolute number of cyclists has increased slightly in some areas and there’s an exception to the

trend in the form of the MSOA’s in the immediate vicinity of the university where modal share has increased markedly. Figure 2.24: Percentage of Residents Travelling to Work on Foot

Figure 2.24 shows the number of residents in each MSOA who travel to work on foot as a percentage and an absolute number in 2001 and 2011. The map would appear to show a reduction in the modal share of people on foot in most MSOAs, which would conflict with the data in Figure. Some areas have seen increases, though, notably the east side of the City Centre and the area to the east of the city around Ansty Industrial Estate.

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Figure 2.25: Percentage of Jobs Accessed by Car Drivers

2.5.8 Figure 2.25 shows the number of jobs accessed in each MSOA as a percentage and an absolute number in 2001 and 2011. Figure 2.19 and the census show a flattening in the number of car trips by residents, however Figure 2.25 shows an increase in the number and percentage of jobs in the city accessed by people driving. This would suggest that more cars are coming into the city from outside as the number of people driving into the City shows an increase across most the entire area in both absolute and percentage terms. Notable exceptions are the North West area, where both absolute and modal share percentage fall sharply in one MSOA and decline slightly in an immediate

neighbour. The South East also shows a small fall. Finally, the area around the university in the South shows a reduction in the absolute reduction in cars, though the modal share remains stable. Figure 2.26: Percentage of Jobs Accessed by Workers Travelling as Car Passengers

2.5.9 Figure 2.26 shows the number of jobs accessed by car passengers in each MSOA as a percentage and an absolute number in 2001 and 2011. Similar to the shift in T4, there’s a general decline in the modal share and number of people reaching jobs in the city by car. Again, there’s one exception with an MSOA to the North of the city showing more people accessing work by car.

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Figure 2.27: Percentage of Jobs Accessed by People Travelling On Bus

2.5.10 Figure 2.27 shows the number of jobs accessed by bus into each MSOA as a percentage and an absolute number in 2001 and 2011. Figure 2.25 broadly reflects the findings of 2.21 showing less people are travelling to work in the city by bus whether from resident locations or outside. The reductions focus on the centre, suggesting that this might have been the destination of those travelling from the western MSOAs who no longer use bus.

Figure 2.28: Percentage of jobs accessed by workers travelling by Train and/or Metro

2.5.11 Figure 2.28 shows the number of jobs accessed by train or metro into each MSOA as a percentage and an absolute number in 2001 and 2011. It shows that, as well as more residents travelling by train, the number of people travelling to work in the city centre from the outside the city or from the suburban stations at Tile Hill and Canley by rail has also increased considerably over the decade. Again, these trips are dominantly focused within easy walking distance of the main station. It would be reasonable to assume that with the development of Friargate within this area that the number of rail trips will continue to increase in the future.

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Figure 2.29: Percentage of Jobs Accessed by Workers Travelling by Bicycle

2.5.12 Figure 2.29 shows the number of jobs accessed by bicycle in each MSOA as a percentage and an absolute number in 2001 and 2011. As with Figure2.10 and 2.23, the city largely sees the cycle mode share declining. T12 does reinforce the gain in cycling in the South West of the city, though, suggesting the destination of the new cyclists seen in T5.

Figure 2.30: Percentage of Workers Accessing jobs on Foot

2.5.13 Figure 2.30 shows the number travelling to work on foot into each MSOA as a percentage and an absolute number in 2001 and 2011. It shows an interesting shift in the locations to which workers are walking, with an substantial increase in walking trips to work (both absolute and percentage) arriving in the City Centre mirrored by a decrease in residents walking to MSOA’s on the centre’s boundary and the edges of the city.

Project number: 70001991

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3 Coventry Travel to Work Patterns

3.1 Summary of Commuting Movements Around Coventry 3.1.1 This section studies changes in the travel to work patterns which take place within Coventry between 2001 and 2011. This covers trips by Coventry residents to sites within Coventry, Coventry residents travelling out of the City and non-residents travelling into the City. 3.1.2 Evidence in this section would suggest that the number of residents working in the city falls slightly, replaced by a rise in the number of residents working outside the city, reflecting the findings of figure 2.18 which suggested residents were travelling further to work as a whole. The movement of Coventry residents to places of work outside the city is partially offset by an increase in people commuting into the city. 3.1.3 This places a unique challenge on the transport system to provide free movement in both directions in the peaks, making some traffic solutions such as with-flow lanes more difficult to implement. Figure 3.1: Total Commuting Movements, Coventry

100000

90000

80000

70000 Commuters into Coventry 60000 Commuters out of Coventry 50000 Commuters within Coventry 40000 Home Workers 30000 Other

20000

10000

0 2001 2011

3.1.4 The total number of commuters from Coventry decreased slightly from 118,496 to 118,260. However, the number of employed residents has increased by 8.75% from 127,026 to 138,142. This is in line with the rise in the number of residents in Coventry shown in Figure 2.1. 3.1.5 The difference between employed residents and commuters is partially due to a 25% increase in home workers, as well as an additional 9,725 people who have no Fixed Work Place, or work Overseas or Offshore which were previously included in the home workers category1. When taken together, this category grew by 11,729 people – 144%.

1 “In 2001, people with no fixed place of work are treated the same as people who work mainly at or from home and are counted as working in their area of residence”.

100% 100% 90% 80% 80% 70% 60% 60% 50% 40% 40% 30% 20% 20% 0% 10% 2001 2011 0% 2001 2011 Commute out of Coventry Other Commute out of Coventry Works from home Commute within Coventry Commute within Coventry

Figure 3.2: Destination of Coventry Commuters Figure3.3: Destination of Coventry working residents 3.1.6 The total number commuting within Coventry has decreased from 86,546 in 2001 (73.1% of those commuting from Coventry) to 78,767 in 2011 (66.6%). 3.1.7 However, when including ‘home workers’ and ‘other’, Coventry working residents working in Coventry have actually increased in absolute terms: from 94,778 in 2001 (75% of Coventry’s working residents) to 98,649 in 2011 (71%).

Project number: 70001991

Dated: 22/01/2015 38 Revised:

3.2 Coventry as the origin of workers 3.2.1 This section reviews the locations to which Coventry residents travel. Whilst 72% of working residents remain within the city, substantial numbers of residents are shown as being employed in locations to the immediate South and East of the City. Job sites in these locations tend to be more dispersed and less well served by public transport, possibly accounting for the increase car’s modal share shown over the preceding decade. 3.2.2 It is also worth noting the findings of Figure 3.6, which shows reductions of the number of jobs within Coventry filled by Coventry residents, suggesting an increase in in-commuting and possibly providing a reason for the reductions in walking and cycling amongst those employed in the city (shown in figures 2.29 and 2.30) on the basis that they’re travelling longer distances, particularly as there’s a correlation in the MSOA’s showing reductions in employment of Coventry residents and those showing reductions in people walking and cycling. 3.2.3 This movement of people away from Coventry is reinforced by the findings of Figure 3.6 that shows that, of the residents working outside the city, the largest growth excluding Warwick is that to districts not immediately bordering Coventry. Table 3.1: Most Popular Destinations for Coventry Commuters Total Commuting % of Coventry commut- MSOA Name From Coventry ers working here 1. Coventry 031 15,410 13.03% 2. Coventry 019 6,868 5.81% 3. Coventry 036 4,231 3.58% 4. Coventry 042 4,084 3.45% 5. Coventry 038 3,993 3.38% 6. Warwick 005 3,441 2.91% 7. Coventry 009 2,691 2.28% 8. Coventry 033 2,538 2.15% 9. Coventry 008 2,475 2.09% 10. Coventry 026 2,380 2.01% Total 48,111 40.69%

3.2.4 Table 3.1 shows the most popular destinations for Coventry commuters. As one would expect, the city centre (Coventry 031) attracts the highest number by far, although this is lower than in 2001 (17,419 – 11.5% drop). Note that “Warwick 005” is the 6th most popular destination, possibly due to it containing, amongst other things, the expansive Stoneleigh Park business estate, home to a wide range of employment opportunities. Figure 3.4: % of work destinations of Coventry Residents

3.2.5 Error! Reference source not found.3.4 further illustrates the destinations of Coventry workers in 2001 and 2011. Those commuting out of Coventry are more likely to travel in an eastern (Ansty Park) or southern (Stoneleigh Park) than a western direction – although areas along the M6 corridor into Birmingham City Centre and around Birmingham International Airport and National Exhibition Centre (NEC) do feature.

Project number: 70001991

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Table 3.2: Coventry MSOAs with highest share of Coventry residents MSOA Name % MSOA Workers coming from Coventry Coventry 031 61.2% Coventry 024 60.3% Coventry 019 60.3% Coventry 026 59.5% Coventry 015 59.2% Coventry 029 58.8% Coventry 005 57.6% Coventry 007 57.0% Coventry 017 56.9% Coventry 039 56.2%

Table 3.3: Non-Coventry MSOAs with highest share of Coventry residents MSOA Name % MSOA Workers coming from Coventry Warwick 005 31.97% Nuneaton and Bedworth 015 29.63% Nuneaton and Bedworth 018 25.52% Rugby 004 22.28% Warwick 001 15.10%

Figure 3.5: % of jobs filled by Coventry residents

3.2.6 Figure 3.5 shows the percentage of jobs which are filled by Coventry Residents. This illustrates the importance of Coventry residents to the area. Table 3.2 shows the ten areas with the highest percentage of workers travelling from Coventry. Table 3.3 shows the top five outside of Coventry.

Project number: 70001991

Dated: 22/01/2015 42 Revised:

Figure 3.6: Trips Out of Coventry at District Level

3.2.7 Figure 3.11 shows, by district, the number of people commuting into Coventry by district of Origin. It shows a pattern of primary flows, those for in-commuters being on a North-South and South-North axis, with the majority of in-commuters coming from Nuneaton & Bedworth and Warwick respectively. This has potential for gains in public transport mode share, with both areas joined to Coventry by frequent bus services as well as being located upon the NUCKLE (NUneaton, Coventry, Kenilworth, and LEamington) rail project which will see new stations and a greater service frequency on the line joining Nuneaton to Leamington Spa via Coventry. 3.2.8 Similar to 3.6, however, the growth in commuter movements tends to be in areas further from Coventry, with Birmingham seeing an increase of 1,500 trips to Coventry with small gains made from other locations such as Stratford-Upon-Avon, Daventry and North Warwickshire. This is offset by losses from some areas, the largest being from the Nuneaton and Bedworth district, however not sufficient to remove it from being the dominant flow into Coventry. Smaller losses are seen from Harborough, Solihull and Rugby districts.

3.3 Method of Travel to Work from Coventry 3.3.1 This section expands upon figure 2.10’s findings and looks at the mode of travel of Coventry residents by destination. It shows reinforces the dominances of the car as the main mode of transport to work, as discussed elsewhere, but also shows some curious features. The first is that the highest rail modal share is seen on trips towards Birmingham, followed by Sandwell. The latter is surprising given the necessity of a service change at New Street in order to reach the final destination whilst the former possibly demonstrates the benefits of a high frequency service with seven trains per hour connecting the two cities. This makes for an interesting comparison to Rugby, on the same line but with just four ‘stopping’ trains in the peak and possessing a considerably lower rail modal share. 3.3.2 A similar trend is visible in the bus services, too, with the areas, such as connected by high frequency (a bus every 20minutes or better) services tending to enjoy higher modal shares. 3.3.3 Unsurprisingly, walking and cycling is, by and large, confined to trips within the City and to and from districts immediately bordering Coventry whereby walking across the boundary from an outlying estate would pose no great hardship.

Project number: 70001991

Dated: 22/01/2015 44 Revised:

Table 3.4: Method of travel to work of Coventry residents, by destination, 2011 Destination All Works Car Car Car Driver + Train Bus Bike Walking Categories mainly Driver Passenger Passenger at or from home Coventry 98,291 10,157 49,003 7,343 56,346 513 12,570 3,069 13,962 Nuneaton and Bedworth 4,878 3,571 532 4,103 15 415 137 128 Warwick 9,249 7,213 846 8,059 110 617 172 154 Rugby 3,805 2,909 418 3,327 80 184 71 87 Birmingham 4,472 2,667 221 2,888 1,261 166 23 78 Solihull 3,072 2,412 191 2,603 110 195 19 94 Stratford-on-Avon 1,976 1,680 197 1,877 13 41 13 13 Hinckley and Bosworth 742 603 94 697 1 16 9 9 North Warwickshire 1,134 896 80 976 11 91 10 28 Blaby 265 226 18 244 0 14 1 4 Harborough 872 662 160 822 6 16 4 7 Daventry 1,196 983 158 1,141 3 19 6 13 Leicester 497 413 18 431 10 46 0 7 Sandwell 288 208 17 225 30 26 0 3 Other 7,405 4,779 516 5,295 704 558 78 516 Table 3.4: method of journey to work of Coventry employed residents, 2011 Destination Car Driver Car Passenger Car Driver + Train Bus Bike Walking Passenger Coventry 56% 8% 64% 1% 14% 3% 16% Nuneaton and 73% 11% 84% 0% 9% 3% 3% Bedworth Warwick 78% 9% 87% 1% 7% 2% 2% Rugby 76% 11% 87% 2% 5% 2% 2%

Birmingham 60% 5% 65% 28% 4% 1% 2% Solihull 79% 6% 85% 4% 6% 1% 3% Stratford-on- 85% 10% 95% 1% 2% 1% 1% Avon Hinckley and 81% 13% 94% 0% 2% 1% 1% Bosworth North 79% 7% 86% 1% 8% 1% 2% Warwickshire Blaby 85% 7% 92% 0% 5% 0% 2% Harborough 76% 18% 94% 1% 2% 0% 1% Daventry 82% 13% 95% 0% 2% 1% 1% Leicester 83% 4% 87% 2% 9% 0% 1% Sandwell 72% 6% 78% 10% 9% 0% 1% Other 65% 7% 72% 10% 8% 1% 7%

3.3.4 Error! Reference source not found. and 3.5 shows how Coventry people travel to work, by destination in absolute numbers and as a percentage of trips to that destination, respectively. 3.3.5 As set out previously, the majority of trips made by Coventry residents end within Coventry. Unsurprisingly, this is also where the majority of the walking and cycling trips terminate, showing the largest absolute numbers in table 3.4 and their highest modal share in table 3.5. 3.3.6 Slightly more surprising, though possibly reflecting the high frequency of services within the city that falls sharply once over the boundary, most of the bus trips are within the City; again both as a modal share percentage an in absolute number. In terms of absolute numbers, those locations served by higher frequency bus services do tend to enjoy a greater modal share as destinations for bus passengers. 3.3.7 In light of this, it is not surprising to note that whilst the largest absolute number of car trips end in Coventry, the largest car modal shares are seen for destinations with less direct or less frequent connections by public transport, such as Stratford, Blaby, Leicester and Hinckley. 3.3.8 In terms of rail, frequency is, again, a likely factor in Birmingham being the main destination of trips from Coventry station, with the cities connected by seven trains per hour (tph). This contrasts sharply with locations such as Rugby ; which despite being on the same line has 4-5tph, 80 trips and 2% modal share. One surprising figure is the 0%/15 trips for Nuneaton, given the direct hourly service between the two areas. This could be expected to increase by the time of the 2021 service with a doubling of frequency over this line, which also offers onward connections to Leicester and Harborough District.

Project number: 70001991

Dated: 22/01/2015 46 Revised:

3.4 Coventry as the destination of workers 3.4.1 This section reviews the origin points of workers travelling into Coventry. As previously discussed, 60% of these trips originate within Coventry itself, though this is a slight reduction from 2001. The number of jobs in the city hasn’t changed much overall, however, making trips into the city from outside slightly more important, particularly those to Nuneaton and Bedworth which make up the majority of incoming trips from outside of the city.

100% 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 0% 2001 2011 2001 2011

Commuters into Cov Commuters within Cov Works from home Commuters within Cov Other Commuters into Cov

Figure 3.7: Origin of Coventry workers Figure 3.8: Origin of Coventry workers

3.4.2 The total number of people commuting to Coventry decreased slightly 4% from 134,803 to 129,344. 3.4.3 The number of people commuting into Coventry from outside of the district increased 5% from 48,178 to 50,577 3.4.4 The number of people commuting within Coventry has decreased from 86,546 in 2001 (64% of those commuting into Coventry) to 78,767 in 2011 (61%). However, when including home workers and ‘other’, Coventry workers originating from Coventry have actually increased from 94,778 in 2001 to 98,649 in 2011 – the proportion remains about 66% - see Figure. This illustrates that home working and alternative working arrangements are of increasing importance.

Figure 3.9: % of home locations for Coventry jobs

Table 3.8: MSOAs Supplying the Most Coventry Workers Total Commuting MSOA Name % of Coventry Workers To Coventry Coventry 017 2,716 2.1% Coventry 033 2,703 2.1% Coventry 027 2,543 2.0% Coventry 008 2,458 1.9% Coventry 018 2,369 1.8% Coventry 034 2,327 1.8% Coventry 026 2,269 1.8% Coventry 020 2,254 1.7% Coventry 035 2,241 1.7% Coventry 037 2,132 1.6%

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3.4.5 Figure 3.6 and Table 3.7 show the areas supplying the highest number of Coventry workers. All of the top ten origin areas are within Coventry. Table 3.8: Non-Coventry MSOAs Supplying the Most Coventry Workers Total Commuting % of Coventry MSOA Name To Coventry Workers Nuneaton and Bedworth 018 1514 1.17% Nuneaton and Bedworth 015 1290 1.00% Rugby 004 1180 0.91% Nuneaton and Bedworth 016 1137 0.88% Nuneaton and Bedworth 012 918 0.71%

3.4.6 Table 3.8 shows the areas outside of Coventry where the highest number of Coventry workers originates. Nuneaton and Bedworth feature strongly. Again, workers come more from east of the city – presumably because in areas to the west, Coventry competes with the Birmingham conurbation.

Figure 3.10: % of employed residents who work in Coventry

Project number: 70001991

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3.4.7 Figure 3.3.8 shows the areas which have the highest share of Coventry workers. These percentages have decreased across the city. The top ten are shown in Table 3.9 below. 3.4.8 Table 3.10 shows the areas outside of Coventry with the highest share of Coventry workers – note that Nuneaton and Bedworth MSOAs take up 4 of the 5.

Table 3.9: MSOAs with highest share of residents working in Coventry MSOA Name % of employed residents who work in Cov- entry Coventry 004 63.2% Coventry 019 62.3% Coventry 012 61.5% Coventry 013 60.8% Coventry 008 60.7% Coventry 018 60.6% Coventry 029 59.6% Coventry 016 59.6% Coventry 032 59.5% Coventry 026 58.9%

Table 3.10: Non-Coventry MSOA with highest share of residents working in Coventry MSOA Name % of employed residents who work in Cov- entry Nuneaton and Bedworth 018 40.21% Nuneaton and Bedworth 015 31.58% Nuneaton and Bedworth 016 31.37% Rugby 004 29.88% Nuneaton and Bedworth 014 25.65%

Project number: 70001991

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Figure 3.11: District Level Trips into Coventry

3.4.9 Figure 3.11 shows, by district, the number of people commuting into Coventry by district of Origin. It shows a pattern quite different from figure 3.6 in terms of primary flows, those for in-commuters being on a North-South and South-North axis, with the majority of in-commuters coming from Nuneaton & Bedworth and Warwick respectively. This has potential for gains in public transport mode share, with both areas joined to Coventry by frequent bus services as well as being located upon the NUCKLE (NUneaton, Coventry, Kenilworth, and LEamington) rail project which will see new stations and a greater service frequency on the line joining Nuneaton to Leamington Spa via Coventry. 3.4.10 Similar to 3.6, however, the growth in commuter movements tends to be in areas further from Coventry, with Birmingham seeing an increase of 1,500 trips to Coventry with small gains made from other locations such as Stratford-Upon-Avon, Daventry and North Warwickshire. This is offset by losses from some areas, the largest being from the Nuneaton and Bedworth district, however not sufficient to remove it from being the dominant flow into Coventry. Smaller losses are seen from Harborough, Solihull and Rugby districts.

3.5 Method of Travel to Work in Coventry 3.5.1 This section expands upon the study undertaken in section 2.4 and looks at the origin of the travel to work trips by mode. Trips within Coventry were discussed in detail section 3.3, so this section will focus on those trips coming in from outside the City. 3.5.2 There are some strong similarities between the pattern of trips coming into and out of the city. Whilst the order changes slightly, the top five origin points are the same as the previously discussed top five destination points. The modal split of non-car modes split also strikingly similar between trips originating and terminating in Coventry, with trips terminating within the city broadly within 3% of the modal share of the originating from the same point. In the comparison, the striking feature is that among the trips coming into Coventry, Car Passenger mode share is consistently lower with the resulting balance of modal share going, broadly, to car driver. 3.5.3 There are some other noteworthy points. Again, Birmingham is the primary source of rail trips from outside the city, though its modal share is lower than for the departing residents with most of the loss going to car. In terms of bus passengers, the majority of bus trips originate in Warwickshire, which also enjoys the share’s largest percentage outside of Coventry itself.

Project number: 70001991

Dated: 22/01/2015 54 Revised:

Table 3.11: Method of travel to work of people working in Coventry, by origin, 2011 Car Car Car Driver + Origin All Workers Train Bus Bike Walking Driver Passenger Passenger Coventry 98,291 49,003 7,343 56,346 513 12,570 3,069 13,962 Nuneaton and 11,392 9,129 776 9,905 83 921 148 176 Bedworth Warwick 7,903 6,423 289 6,712 85 632 212 216 Rugby 4,909 4,211 250 4,461 135 151 60 63 Birmingham 4,596 3,297 191 3,488 810 183 15 52 Solihull 3,654 3,106 122 3,228 203 112 32 34 Stratford-on-Avon 1,854 1,744 47 1,791 4 25 13 10 Hinckley and Bosworth 1,840 1,714 61 1,775 10 23 9 9 North Warwickshire 1,614 1,462 58 1,520 22 30 12 12 Blaby 552 525 15 540 4 4 2 1 Harborough 551 511 19 530 8 3 4 4 Daventry 526 486 16 502 15 2 0 5 Leicester 647 535 35 570 25 28 6 10 Sandwell 562 375 31 406 114 22 0 10 Other 9,977 8,160 311 8,471 789 232 80 264

Table 3.12: method of journey to work in Coventry, 2011 Origin Car Car Pas- Car Driver + Pas- Train Bus Bike Walking Driver senger senger Coventry 56% 8% 64% 1% 14% 3% 16% Nuneaton and Bed- 80% 7% 87% 1% 8% 1% 2% worth Warwick 81% 4% 85% 1% 8% 3% 3% Rugby 86% 5% 91% 3% 3% 1% 1% Birmingham 72% 4% 76% 18% 4% 0% 1% Solihull 85% 3% 88% 6% 3% 1% 1% Stratford-on-Avon 94% 3% 97% 0% 1% 1% 1% Hinckley and Bos- 93% 3% 96% 1% 1% 0% 0% worth North Warwickshire 91% 4% 94% 1% 2% 1% 1% Blaby 95% 3% 98% 1% 1% 0% 0% Harborough 93% 3% 96% 1% 1% 1% 1% Daventry 92% 3% 95% 3% 0% 0% 1% Leicester 83% 5% 88% 4% 4% 1% 2% Sandwell 67% 6% 72% 20% 4% 0% 2% Other 82% 3% 85% 8% 2% 1% 3%

3.5.4 Table 3.11 and 3.12 shows the number of people traveling to Coventry by method of travel and origin in absolute terms and as a percentage of the origin point. 3.5.5 As trips within Coventry were discussed previously, this section will focus upon movements into the city from outside. As discussed in regard to figure 3.11, the largest flow is that from Nuneaton & Bedworth, formed of 11,392 trips. Of these, a substantial number (approximately 9,000) are car

drivers, making a substantial impact on traffic in Coventry. The next mode which is well represented is bus, with 921 trips or less than 1/8th of the number of car trips into the city, despite Nuneaton being well served by direct buses into Coventry. A similar pattern is also seen in those travelling from Warwick District, with similar proportioning of trips between car, bus and other modes, reflecting perhaps the similarity in available transport options between the two areas. 3.5.6 Rugby district makes the third most important origin point. Possibly reflecting the lesser number of bus connections between the districts, that modal share declines to be offset by a 5% increase in cars modal share and a 2% increase in that of Rail compared to Nuneaton. This latter is possibly due to the higher frequency rail enjoyed between Rugby and Coventry. 3.5.7 The fourth most important origin point almost certainly reflects the importance of a high frequency service upon Modal Share, with 18% of those travelling to Coventry from Birmingham doing so by rail, possibly influenced by the seven trains per hour offered from Birmingham New Street to Coventry. Whether this influences the high rail modal share seen for Sandwell, for which connections must be made at New Street, would require further study. 3.5.8 Solihull district, the fifth more important origin point shows a considerable rail share of 6%, which most likely reflects the location of four commuter stations into Coventry being located within the district, rather than the growth of Solihull station itself as that is on a different line to that serving Coventry with access requiring a change to a low frequency service at Leamington. 3.5.9 Finally, the remainder of the districts tend to reflect the lack of direct public transport links by road or rail, showing car driver trip share of 90% or more, rising further when car passenger trips are factored in.

Project number: 70001991

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4 Warwickshire Statistics 4.1.1 This section seeks to provide a context to the following report covering the long term transport trends in Warwickshire. Data has been sourced, predominantly, from NOMIS Web and covers the years between 1981 and 2011 where available.

4.2 Warwickshire Population Statistics 4.2.1 Warwickshire’s population demonstrates a slight decline between 1981 and 1991 before growing strongly between 1991 and 2011. Figure 4.1: Warwickshire Population

600,000

400,000 Total Residents 200,000 Number of People Employed 0 1981 1991 2001 2011

4.2.2 Error! Reference source not found. illustrates the trends in population and employment in Warwickshire between 1981 and 2011. The population remains stable between 1981 and 1991 before beginning to grow more quickly from 1991 to 2011.

4.3 Warwickshire Employment Statistics 4.3.1 Warwickshire’s shows increasing employment between 1981 and 2011 with only a small fall in male employment in the 1991-2001 period that immediately recovers in 2001-2011. 4.3.2 Similar to Coventry, the make-up of employment in the county does change between 2001 and 2011, with a drop in manufacturing employment, possibly due to the aforementioned factory closures afflicting Coventry over the period, replaced by gains in most other sectors. Other sections in decline over the period are agriculture and, slightly surprisingly given the area’s nature, financial and insurance activities. 4.3.3 Also as with Coventry, those in long term unemployment and former students are less likely to be finding jobs. 4.3.4 Geographically, the areas with the largest percentage of people in employment tend (and the reductions in unemployment from 2001-2011) to be the county’s towns, with the rural areas tending to be a few percentage points behind in terms of employment. This possibly reflects the aforementioned decline in importance of agriculture to the region’s economy.

Figure 4.2: No. Warwickshire Residents Employed by Gender

160,000

140,000 d e y o

l 120,000 p m E

s 100,000 t n e d

i 80,000 s

e Male R

f 60,000 o

Female r e b 40,000 m u N 20,000

- 1981 1991 2001 2011 Year

4.3.5 Error! Reference source not found..2 adds detail to Figure 1, showing the gender make up of those employed in the city. Similar to Coventry, Female employment has shown a constant increase. The male employment, though, actually grows between 1981 and 1991 where Coventry’s falls, before falling back in 2001 and rising again in 2011. Figure 4.3: Employment categories

60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 2001 Employment All persons 0 2011 Employment All persons

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Figure 4.4: Employment categories

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

Mining and quarrying

Manufacturing 2001 % Employment in Sector Electricity, gas, steam, air conditioning supply and water. Construction

Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motor cycles Hotels and Restaurants

Transport, Storage and 2011 % Employment in Sector Communications Finance and Insurance

Real Estate

Public administration and defence; 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% compulsory social security

4.3.6 Figure.3 & 4.4 shows the changes in the sector in which people are employed in Warwickshire. Akin to Coventry, the largest drop has been in the number of manufacturing jobs, with concurrent increases in construction, wholesale and retail repair, and transport and storage. Unfortunately, the last figure is a merger of transport jobs and IT in order to correspond with 2001 figures, however it is probably reasonable to believe that the majority of the jobs are in IT. Accommodation and Food service have also seen slight increases. 4.3.7 Note: The sector headings are a hybrid of 2001 and 2011 census titles as the reporting techniques changed between the two, altering the way in which subjects are grouped. Also, the above chart only shows key sectors.

Figure 4.5: Percentage Unemployed by Social Class

L15 Full-time students 8. Never worked and long-term… 7. Routine occupations 6. Semi-routine occupations 5. Lower supervisory and technical… 4. Small employers and own account… 3. Intermediate occupations 2. Lower managerial, administrative… 1. Higher managerial, administrative…

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Percentage of Social Class Unemployed 4.3.8 Error! Reference source not found..5 looks at unemployment in the County. Similar to Coventry, it tends to be those who’ve been long termed unemployed or haven’t worked who’re unemployed, followed by students and those in routine occupations, the latter possible reflecting a decline in routine jobs in the County.

Project number: 70001991

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Figure 4.6: Percentage of Residents who’re Economically Active

4.3.9 Figure 4.6 illustrates the percentage of the population who are currently in employment in the county’s MSOA’s. Whilst the number of residents employed has increased, as shown in Figure 2, the number of residents has increased faster meaning that the overall percentage of the population employed has actually declined in several areas, most notably in the more rural area South of

Warwick and Leamington. However, the percentage of people in employment has risen in the north of the county, particularly in the area’s bordering Birmingham and Solihull. Figure 4.7: Percentage of population who’re not working.

4.3.10 Figure 4.7 shows the percentage of the population who are at present not in employment. Across the county, this remains a low figure between the two years. Figure 4.9 also reinforces Figure 4.9 in that the North of the county has seen increases in the number of people in employment.

Project number: 70001991

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Figure 4.8: Percentage of Population Retired

4.3.11 Figure 4.8 might account for the difference between Figures 4.6 and 4.7. Whilst the number of people of working age in employment has risen, the number of people in retirement has also risen, causing the decline in the percentage of people in employment. This trend is particularly noticeable in the areas South and West of Leamington Spa.

Figure 4.9: Percentage of the Population Who’re Students

4.3.12 Figure 4.9 illustrates the percentage of the population in the County’s MSOA’s which are students. As can be observed, the demographic remains broadly the same in the county between 2001 and 2011 with only a small increase in the student population seen around the Leamington Spa area.

Project number: 70001991

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4.4 Warwickshire Transport Statistics 4.4.1 Having reviewed the background changes and movements in the County’s population, this section studies how travel to work has changed within the County. 4.4.2 The census data reveals several consistent trends in Warwickshire’s travel to work data. Firstly, the share of people working from home has increased rapidly from 1981, from 4% to nearly 12%. Rail growth has also doubled from 1% to 2% remaining a very much minority transport mode. Road’s mode share increased substantially from slightly less than 50% in 1981 to 65% in 2011. These gains were offset by declines in the other transport modes, most notably in bus (decreasing to less then a third of its previous level) and car passengers (down by half) . 4.4.3 Over the 1981-2011 study period, car ownership in the area has steadily increased. As with Coventry, this includes increases, post 1991, which out-strip the number of people driving to work, again suggesting increases in non-work use. 4.4.4 Finally, the distance people are travelling to work in the county has increased between 2001 and 2011 with a fall in trips less than 2km shown by all modes.

Figure 3.10 Mode of Transport by Commuters in Warwickshire Mode of Transport by Commuters in Warwickshire 70.00%

60.00%

50.00% e g

a 40.00% t n e c r

e 30.00% P

20.00%

10.00%

0.00% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 Work mainly at Train, Bus, minibus or Driving a car or Passenger in a Bicycle On foot All other or from home underground, coach van car or van methods of metro, light rail travel to work

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Figure 3.10 Mode of Transport by Commuters in Warwickshire Mode of Transport by Commuters in Warwickshire 70.00%

60.00%

50.00% e g

a 40.00% t n e c r

e 30.00% P

20.00%

10.00%

0.00% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 Work mainly at Train, Bus, minibus or Driving a car or Passenger in a Bicycle On foot All other or from home underground, coach van car or van methods of metro, light rail travel to work

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4.4.5 4.10 presents an interesting picture of the method of travel to work (TTW) utilised by Warwickshire residents over the past three decades. Prominent amongst these is that the number of car drivers starts and ends the dominant TTW mode within the county, however it’s growth in modal share appears to have slowed from 1991-2001 and then plateaued between 2001 and 2011 with only 0.15% increase in modal share in that decade. Despite the increase in the number of car drivers, the number of car passengers has declined steadily over the period, losing 5% of overall modal share between 1981 and 2011. This suggests an increase in the number of single occupancy car trips. 4.4.6 Another key trend is the rapid, steady rise of home working, nearly trebling its ‘modal share’ over the three study decades. During that period it has become the dominant non-car way of reaching work, even though no or limited travel is actually involved. Whether this trend is related to the plateauing in car driver trip growth remains to be seen. 4.4.7 The final mode demonstrating an overall rise is rail, which has more than doubled its modal share between 1981 and 2011. This is possibly due to ongoing investment in both the Chiltern (Warwick and Leamington Spa) and West Coast mainlines (Nuneaton, Rugby) which serve the area, particularly within the 2001-2011 period. 4.4.8 All of the other modes have shown declines in their share, with a particularly sharp fall in the modal share of bus passengers to less than a third of its 1981 figures. In line with the sharp rise in car mode share between 1981 and 1991, all of the declines are sharpest between those years suggesting that alterations to car’s modal share bring the biggest impacts on the modal share of others. Figure 4.11: Number of Drivers by Gender

120,000

100,000

80,000 s

r Male Drivers e v i

r Female Drivers D

f 60,000 o

r e b m u

N 40,000

20,000

- 1981 1991 2001 2011 Year

4.4.9 Figure 4.11 shows the number of car driver trips in value, by gender. As can be observed, the number of women driving to work has grown at a much faster rate than the number of men between 1981 and 2011, though men retain the dominant position as drivers at present. Figure 4.14: Trips per jobs by gender

80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% Male Trips/Job 30.00% Female Trips/Job 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 1981 1991 2001 2011

4.4.10 Error! Reference source not found.4.14 reveals something interesting not immediately visible in figure 6. From 1981-2001, the number of driver trips increase beyond the growth in jobs, leading to the rapid increase in car’s modal share seen in Figure 50. However, between 2001 and 2011, the number of car driver trips didn’t keep up with the numbers of people in employment, leading to a decline in the ratio of trips/workers. This possibly explains the plateau in the growth of car’s modal share in 2001-2011 shown in Figure 5. It also suggests that the increase in jobs was sufficient to maintain an increase in cars’ overall mode share; however the potential implications of this reversal of the long term trend possibly bear further study. Figure 4.15: Total Cars Owned by Warwickshire Residents

Total Cars 350,000

300,000

250,000

200,000

150,000 Total Cars

100,000

50,000

- 1981 1991 2001 2011

4.4.11 Error! Reference source not found.4.15 shows the number of cars owned by residents of Warwickshire. It can be observed that the number of vehicles owned overall has nearly doubled between 1981 and 2011, supporting the increase in car’s modal share seen in Error! Reference source not found. and the increase in the number of people driving to work in Figure 51.

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Figure 4.16: Relationship of Cars Owned to Residents and Drivers

2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 s r

a 1 C

f Cars/Residents o 0.8 r

e Cars/Drivers b 0.6 m u 0.4 N 0.2 0 1981 1991 2001 2011 Year

4.4.12 As with Figure4.16, however, Error! Reference source not found.’s absolute numbers of cars doesn’t tell the whole story. Figure shows two curious trends. Firstly, that the number of cars in relation to the number of Warwickshire residents has doubled between 1981 and 2011. Secondly, that despite this doubling, the cars use as the dominant mode of transport to work hasn’t shown the same trend, so the number of car TTW trips in relation to the number of cars has remained quite stable over the same period. This would suggest that the additional cars arriving in the area are either reducing the utilisation of pre-existing vehicles or are utilised for non-work purposes. Figure 4.174: Cars per household

1.6

1.4

1.2

0.8 Cars/Household 0.6

0.4

0.2

0 1981 1991 2001 2011

Figure 4.18: Total cars and Households

350000

300000

250000

200000 Total Cars 150000 Total Households

100000

50000

0 1981 1991 2001 2011

4.4.13 Figure 4.1744.17 and Figure4.18 show the relationship between the number of cars owned by Warwickshire residents and the number of households within the County. Unlike Coventry, the number of cars per household starts at nearly one per household in 1981 and increases steadily to 2011, supported by the absolute numbers graph showing how the number of cars rises steadily ahead of the number of households in the area. This is possibly a reflection of the more affluent nature of Warwickshire’s residents compared to Coventry or the more ‘spread out’ nature of employment centres in the county. Figure 4.19: Proportional Percentage Change in Distances Travelled by Mode

On foot

Bicycle 60km and over 40km to less than 60km

Passenger in a car or van 30km to less than 40km 20km to less than 30km Driving a car or van 10km to less than 20km 5km to less than 10km Bus, minibus or coach 2km to less than 5km Less than 2km Train, underground, metro, light rail or tram

-10.00% -8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00%

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4.4.14 4.19 shows the changing proportions of trip lengths by mode within Warwickshire. A shared trend across all modes is an overall increase in journey lengths, with a shared reduction across all modes in the proportion of trips below 2km. 4.4.15 2km to 5km trips have become more common, as have those in the bracket above between 5km and 10km. Curiously, there’s also an increase in the number of foot trips above 60km, which possibly requires further analysis or treating as a statistical anomaly. Cycling shows a similar pattern to walking, except that the largest increase in dominance if for trips between 5km and 10km followed by 2km to 5km. These bands would include trips between 5 and 30 minutes in duration. 4.4.16 Car or Van passengers appear to follow the trend of travelling further, with the largest increase between 20km and 30km. An unusual feature of this growth is the increase in passengers travelling between 2km and 10km, whilst the number of car or van drivers travelling this distance is reported as declining slightly. Otherwise, car drivers and passengers are well aligned in terms of distance growth trends. 4.4.17 The distance band with the largest percentage increase for bus, minibus and coach passengers is that over 60km, followed by those between 5km and 10km with a small decrease in the proportion of trips between 10km and 20km splitting the longer and shorter distance markets. 4.4.18 Finally, trips made by rail based modes show a shift towards trips within two distinct distance bands- 10km to 20km and over 60km, with corresponding reductions in other distance bands. This is possibly related to the aforementioned service improvements (see text relating to Error! Reference source not found.) making London and Birmingham more attractive as destinations for residents of the county.

4.5 Geographic Transport Trends 4.5.1 The images below show the changes in peoples travel to work patterns in the County between 2001 and 2011. It is worth noting that the continuous 0% areas in Birmingham, Leicester and Corby City/Town centres due to data acknowledged as missing from the Census data-base rather than any other error. 4.5.2 On a geographic scale, resident transport trends in the county remain broadly stable. Rail demonstrates a county-wide growth reflecting the census, whilst areas marked as mainly car shift north in the county. Bus. Walking and cycling all decline slightly in the towns, except for Leamington where bus increases slightly. This theme is repeated in the ‘people accessing work’ graphs, which also show comparatively little change over the last decade with the exception, again, being rail which shows a general increase across the county unsurprisingly focused on those areas with direct rail access, but also those further out.

Figure 4.20: Percentage of Residents Travelling to Work as Car Drivers

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4.5.3 Figure 4.20 shows the number of residents in each MSOA who drive to work as a percentage in 2001 and 2011. In most of the county the percentage of drivers remains stable, however there’s a reduction in car’s modal share in the east and an increase in the North. This is possibly due to changes in employment locations, as the employment graph shows a similar trend. Figure 4.21: Percentage of Residents Travelling as Car Passengers

Figure 4.21 shows the number of residents in each MSOA who travel to work as a car passenger as a percentage in 2001 and 2011. Again reflecting

Figure 3.10 Mode of Transport by Commuters in Warwickshire Mode of Transport by Commuters in Warwickshire 70.00%

60.00%

50.00% e g

a 40.00% t n e c r

e 30.00% P

20.00%

10.00%

0.00% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 Work mainly at Train, Bus, minibus or Driving a car or Passenger in a Bicycle On foot All other or from home underground, coach van car or van methods of metro, light rail travel to work

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4.5.4 2.10, the number of residents who travel to work as car passengers has, for the most part, declined almost universally, particularly in the North Warwickshire area on the corridor leading away from Coventry City. The only area which has seen some increase in the number of residents travelling as passengers is Rugby. Figure 4.22: Percentage of Residents Travelling to Work by Bus

4.5.5 Figure 4.22 shows the number of residents in each MSOA who travel to work by bus as a percentage in 2001 and 2011. There’s very little change in the pattern in the country between 2001 and 2011 except some small reductions in the modal share around Coventry, supporting the census data seen in Figure 1 whereby the county-wide modal share of the bus has dropped slightly. There is also a small rise in the residents of Leamington Spa using the bus to reach work.

Figure 4.23: Percentage of jobs accessed by workers travelling by train and/or metro

4.5.6 Figure 4.23 shows the number of residents in each MSOA who travel to work by train or metro as a percentage in 2001 and 2011. Whilst still remaining only a small percentage of the number of people travelling, the map shows the locations of rail’s strong increase in usage across the County, particularly focused upon the MSOAs to the South West of Coventry, possibly following the opening and rapid expansion of the Warwick Parkway station and facilities in the year 2000. Leamington also shows a market increase in rail passengers, possibly reflecting the increase and investment in services to that town discussed in accordance with Figure 4.10.

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Figure 4.24: Percentage of residents travelling to work by bicycle.

Figure 4.24 shows the number of residents in each MSOA who travel to work on a bicycle as a percentage in 2001 and 2011. Once again, the maps follow, for the most part, the trends set by Mode of Transport by Commuters in Warwickshire 70.00%

60.00%

50.00% e g

a 40.00% t n e c r

e 30.00% P

20.00%

10.00%

0.00% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 0 1 8 9 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 0 0 9 9 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 1 Work mainly at Train, Bus, minibus or Driving a car or Passenger in a Bicycle On foot All other or from home underground, coach van car or van methods of metro, light rail travel to work

4.5.7 .10 with most MSOA’s showing decreases in cycling numbers by one or more percentage bands.

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Figure 4.25: Percentage of residents travelling to work on foot

4.5.8 Figure 4.25 shows the number of residents in each MSOA who travel to work on foot as a percentage in 2001 and 2011. It would appear to show that the number of walking trips have reduced in many areas, particularly those which are more rural with most of the major towns showing a steady state in modal share, except for Stratford where there’s a slight decline. This would support the reduction in the On Foot modal share shown in Figure 4.10.

Figure 4.26: Percentage of jobs accessed by workers travelling as car drivers.

4.5.9 Figure 4.26 shows the percentage of jobs in each MSOA accessed by car as a percentage in 2001 and 2011. The pattern over the decade remains broadly stable, with the main change being an 8% increase in the modal share of cars in the area north of Rugby, fuelled by an approximately 6,000 more people in 2011 driving into the area then in 2001.

Project number: 70001991

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Figure 4.27: Percentage of jobs access by people travelling to work as car passengers

4.5.10 Figure 4.27 shows the percentage of jobs accessed by people travelling as car passenger in each MSOA as a percentage in 2001 and 2011. Concurrent to the reduction in the number of residents travelling to work by car, the numbers of people arriving at work by car also show decreases across the County, with particularly large decreases in the area around Leamington Spa where some MSOA’s drop two or more percentage bands. The map does show the possible destination in the increase in passengers from Figure 4.21, though, as the MSOA immediately east of Rugby shows a small rise in the percentage of people arriving that way. There’s also a rise in the number of people travelling by car in the area immediately around Stratford Upon Avon.

Figure 4.28: Percentage of jobs accessed by workers travelling by bus

4.5.11 Figure 4.28 percentage of jobs in each MSOA accessed by bus as a percentage in 2001 and 2011. Similar to Figure 4.22, the overall pattern is one of a county-wide decline in people arriving at work by bus, except, again, Leamington Spa where there is a small increase in the numbers travelling into the town by bus.

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Figure 4.29: Percentage of jobs accessed by people travelling to work by train or metro

4.5.12 Figure 4.29 shows the number of travelling to work by train or metro in each MSOA as a percentage in 2001 and 2011. Whilst there are some slight increases in the modal share of jobs accessed by workers, they do not appear as extensive as those increases rails modal share amongst residents, possibly suggesting that people are travelling outside of the county to work, a concept made more feasible by the aforementioned journey time improvements.

Figure 4.30: Percentage of people travelling to work by bicycle

4.5.13 Figure 4.30 shows the number of people travelling to work by bicycle into each MSOA as a percentage in 2001 and 2011. Concurrent with the reduction in residents cycling shown in Figure 4.23, the number of jobs accessed by bicycle also declines across the county, particularly in the area around Stratford-Upon-Avon. The town itself is, however, one of the few MSOA’s which actually shows a small increase in the modal share of cycling.

Project number: 70001991

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Figure 4.31: Percentage of jobs accessed by workers travelling on foot.

4.5.14 Figure 4.31 percentage of jobs accessed by people on foot in each MSOA as a percentage in 2001 and 2011.Given that most walking trips are 1-5km in length (Figure4) it is perhaps unsurprising to see that the MSOA’s where the residential levels of people walking to work are reflected closely by the levels of people arriving at work on foot, with the map showing the same broad pattern of reductions in walking trips.

5 Warwickshire’s Travel to Work Patterns

5.1 Overall Trends 5.1.1 This section investigates the trends in peoples movements around Warwickshire, concerning movements from the county, movements to the county and movements within the County. As discussed elsewhere, the number of Coventry residents in employment increases slightly, however the employment growth is seen to be outside of the County predominantly as the level of commuters from the county working within it actually declines slightly. There’s also a marked increase in the number of people working in the County travelling into it, which suggests that Coventry (discussed in section 3) is not the only location where there’s been an increase in the number of residents working in the County. Table 5.1: Work Movements Around Coventry

160000

140000

120000 Commuters into County 100000 Commuters out of County 80000 Commuters Within County 60000 Home Workers 40000 Other

20000

0 2001 2011

5.1.2 The total number of commuters originating from Warwickshire rose from 216,692 to 222,478 in 2011. Of these, 135,768 stay within the county – down slightly from 136,766 in 2001 – showing that there is an increasing level of out-commuting. 5.1.3 The number of home workers reduced very slightly from 32,433 to 32,047. However, in 2011 new categories of workers were introduced that would formerly have been included in the home working category – which adds 19471 workers. When including those, the home working category grew by 19,085 people, or 59% 5.1.4 Total number of commuters into the county is 88,536 – up 31% from 67,532 in 2001.

5.2 Warwickshire as the Origin of Workers 5.2.1 This section looks at where Warwickshire’s employed residents work.

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Figure 5.1 Commuters, Home Workers and other categories

Travel by Warwickshire Residents 100% 90% 80% Outside UK 70% 60% 50% 40% No fixed place 30% 20% 10% Offshore installation 0%

Mainly work at or from home Commutes

Table 5.2 Home Workers and other categories Mainly work at Offshore No fixed Outside UK or from home installation place North Warwickshire 3,451 15 2,446 34 Nuneaton and Bedworth 4,443 38 3,897 59 Rugby 5,297 39 3,410 57 Stratford-on-Avon 10,476 66 4,835 108 Warwick 8,380 65 4,287 115 Warwickshire 32,047 223 18,875 373

5.2.2 Table 5.2 and figure 5.2 provide more detail on the “other” categories and compare with actual travel to work movements. This shows that the share of commuting is highest in Nuneaton and Bedworth, and working from home is most popular in Stratford-on-Avon. Figure 5.2 Employed Residents Figure 5.3 Employed Residents, 2001-2011 % Change

80000 20% 70000 60000 15% 50000 40000 10% 30000 20000 5% 10000 2001 0 0% 2011

5.2.3 Figure 5.3 shows an increase in the number of employed residents in each district. The biggest growth in employed residents is in Rugby with 17%. Figure 5.4 Warwickshire Residents - Commuting Destination

100%

80%

60% Commutes within County 40% Commutes Out of 20% County

0% 2001 2011

Figure 5.5 Commuters, Home Workers and other categories

100% 90% Outside UK 80% Offshore installation 70%

60% No fixed place 50% 40% Mainly work at or from home 30% Commutes within County 20%

10% Commutes Out of County 0% 2001 2011

5.2.4 Figure 5.4 shows that of those commuting, the share of those travelling out of the county has increased slightly. Figure 5.5 adds the Other categories to provide a more detailed picture to the above. 5.2.5 Figure 5.6 (below) shows the work destinations of Warwickshire commuters (as a percentage of all Warwickshire commuters) in 2011. Within Warwickshire, the areas with the higher share of Warwickshire workers are often the administrative centres of the counties. Workers travelling out of the county work in areas bordering it. It’s worth noting that Coventry’s city centre (Coventry 031) is the 9th most popular destination overall – with Coventry being a large city central to the county this is not surprising. Table 5.3 shows the top five destinations inside and outside of the county.

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Figure 5.6: Commuting Destinations from Warwickshire

5.3 Warwickshire as a Destination of Workers 5.3.1 This section reviews the origin of commuters travelling into Warwickshire. Figure 5.7: Commuters within County compared to Commuters Travelling Outside County

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% Commutes within County 40% Commutes into County 30% 20% 10% 0% 2001 2011

Figure 5.8: Commuters within County by Destination Class

100% 90% Outside UK 80% Offshore installation 70%

60% No fixed place 50% 40% Mainly work at or from home 30% Commutes within County 20%

10% Commutes into County 0% 2001 2011

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90000 40% 80000 35% 70000 60000 30% 50000 25% 40000 20% 30000 15% 20000 10000 10% 0 5% 0%

2001 2011

Figure 5.9: Jobs in each District occupied by Figure 5.10: Change in Jobs in District occupied by Warwickshire Residents Warwickshire Residents

5.3.2 Figure 5.9 shows the number of jobs in each district, and figure 5.10 shows the change from 2001 to 2011. North Warwickshire has seen the biggest increase in jobs at 35%.

Figure 5.11: Origin of trips into Coventry

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5.3.3 Figure 5.11 shows the home locations of Warwickshire workers in 2011, as a percentage of their total. Table 5.4 provides more detail – the top Five Home Locations of Warwickshire Workers and the top 5 outside of the county.

5.4 Travel within Warwickshire 5.4.1 The Table 5.5 (Below) shows travel between the Warwickshire Districts and Coventry. These figures include Home Workers and Other categories to enable comparison between 2001 and 2011. Table 5.5: Trips Between Warwickshire Districts and Coventry

2001 Area of Employment North Nuneaton and Stratford- Area of Residence Coventry Warwickshire Bedworth Rugby on-Avon Warwick Total Coventry 93,948 717 4,213 4,751 1,066 7,204 111,899 North Warwickshire 1,713 12,895 2,125 301 128 394 17,556 Nuneaton and Bedworth 12,148 2,230 28,935 2,166 331 1,523 47,333 Rugby 5,120 159 801 27,064 512 1,978 35,634 Stratford-on-Avon 2,020 157 167 587 33,863 6,512 43,306 Warwick 7,659 181 405 934 3,338 41,513 54,030 Total 122,608 16,339 36,646 35,803 39,238 59,124 309,758 2011 North Nuneaton and Stratford- Area of Residence Coventry Warwickshire Bedworth Rugby on-Avon Warwick Total Coventry 98,542 1,134 4,878 3,805 1,976 9,249 119,584 North Warwickshire 1,614 14,513 2,060 266 153 429 19,035 Nuneaton and Bedworth 11,392 3,176 30,558 1,896 470 1,867 49,359 Rugby 4,909 206 803 30,246 1,027 2,496 39,687 Stratford-on-Avon 1,854 164 177 615 38,751 5,881 47,442 Warwick 7,903 241 432 955 5,248 44,656 59,435 Total 126,214 19,434 38,908 37,783 47,625 64,578 334,542

2001-2011 percent change North Nuneaton and Stratford- Area of Residence Coventry Warwickshire Bedworth Rugby on-Avon Warwick Total Coventry 5% 58% 16% -20% 85% 28% 7% North Warwickshire -6% 13% -3% -12% 20% 9% 8% Nuneaton and Bedworth -6% 42% 6% -12% 42% 23% 4% Rugby -4% 30% 0% 12% 101% 26% 11% Stratford-on-Avon -8% 4% 6% 5% 14% -10% 10% Warwick 3% 33% 7% 2% 57% 8% 10% Overall 3% 19% 6% 6% 21% 9% 8% Note: Interesting to see that North Warwickshire has seen a 35 % increase in jobs – the growth has not been filled by Warwickshire residents?

Note: Similarly here, as Rugby’s employed residents grew by 17%

6 Forecasts

6.1 Scenarios Utilised 6.1.1 This section looks at possible future trends in the area. 6.1.2 There are two sets of charts. The first studies the numbers of cars owned in the study area, both in absolute numbers and in relation to the number of cars per household. 6.1.3 The second set of charts looks at the number of resident commuter trips by car generated in future years. 6.1.4 The reason for doing two separate studies is due to the divergence between the growth in car commuting rates and car ownership rates discussed in sections 2 and 4. 6.1.5 The set of these trends relating to car ownership has four possible scenarios: Ŷ 1981-2011 Trends; assuming that future developments follow the pattern set over the last three census periods, 1981-1991, 1991-2001, 2001-2011. Ŷ 2001-2011 Trends; “2001-2011 trends” assumes that future developments follow the pattern set over the last ten years, which contrast to those over the previous two decades in showing a stabilisation in the decline of some of the ‘sustainable’ modes and a slowing in the growth of car usage. Ŷ 2001-2011 Trends assuming a ‘Peak Car’ scenario whereby the number of cars per household is fixed at 2011 levels” retains growth in the number of households however retains cars per household at present levels Ŷ “2001-2011 Trends assuming a ‘Peak Car’ scenario where the number of cars is fixed.“ assume that the number of cars in the study area does not change from the levels seen in 2011. Ŷ Data from the TEMPRO Software is used to predict the future number of Households in the area. 6.1.6 The set of trends studying car driver trips has three potential scenarios: Ŷ 1981-2011 Trends; assuming that future developments follow the pattern set over the last three census periods, 1981-1991, 1991-2001, 2001-2011. Ŷ 2001-2011 Trends; “2001-2011 trends” assumes that future developments follow the pattern set over the last ten years, which contrast to those over the previous two decades in showing a stabilisation in the decline of some of the ‘sustainable’ modes and a slowing in the growth of car usage. Ŷ 2001-2011 Trends assuming a ‘Peak Car’ scenario whereby the number of car trips becomes fixed at 2011 and the demand above that point is reallocated to ‘sustainable’ modes such as a walking, cycling and public transport.

6.2 Coventry Trends 6.2.1 This section reviews the impacts on car ownership and usage in Coventry under the scenarios set out in section 6.1. It shows that, should car ownership and usage continue to increase at the levels seen between 1981 and 2011, then there will be a substantial increase in both the number of cars on the road and their usage as a method of travel to work. Under the 2001 to 2011 scenario, there’s still an increase in the car numbers and usage though not as substantial as the preceding scenario. 6.2.2 Due to the growing number of households predicted in the Tempro model, should the number of cars per household become fixed at the current level, then the number of cars in Coventry will still

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increase by approximately 30,000 vehicles. Finally, should a ‘Peak Car’ influence prevent new cars being bought into the city, then the number of cars per household will fall rapidly in future years to below 1991 levels of car ownership. 6.2.3 In regard to commuter trips, should trends return to those seen in the longer term, since 1981, then ‘Non Car Driver’ trips will actually decline with the brunt of the impact falling on bus most likely should the modal share follow prior trends. Under the peak car scenario and the 2001-2011 trends scenarios then the number of ‘Non Car Driver’ trips increases rapidly to about 30,000 or 12,000 additional commuters respectively by 2031. Based upon Figure 2.10 the majority of this growth is liable to be in working from home followed by rail, though should the usage of the car flatten off then the decline in bus would most likely begin to reverse. Figure 6.1: The Trend in the Number of Cars in Coventry

Number of Cars and Household In Coventry 250,000

1981-2011 Trends 200,000

2001-2011 Trends s r 150,000 a C

f Peak Car (Cars Per Household o

r Fixed at 2011 Levels) e b m u 100,000 Peak Car (Car Numbers Stop N Growing in 2011, Cars Per Household Reduces Accordingly) Existing Figures 50,000 Households

- 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 Year

6.2.4 Figure 6.1 shows the scenarios described in Section 6.1 applied to Coventry. Under the 1981-2011 scenarios, car ownership in the city continues to rise exponentially and results in approximately 80,000 more vehicles in the city by 2031. Under the 2001-2011 scenario, this growth is slower however still substantial, approximately 60,000 more vehicles. As the number of cars per household recently increased to over 1 car per household, even if the number of cars per household remains the same there would be 30,000 additional vehicles, the smallest level of growth but by no means insubstantial.

Figure 6.2: Cars per Household in Coventry

Cars Per Household In Coventry 1.40

1.20 1981-2011 Trends

1.00 2001-2011 Trends d l o h e

s 0.80

u Peak Car (Cars Per Household o H

Fixed at 2011 Levels) r e P

0.60 s

r Peak Car (Car Numbers Stop a

C Growing in 2011, Cars Per Household Reduces Accordingly) 0.40 Existing Figures

0.20

- 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 Year

6.2.5 Figure 6.2 looks at the impacts of the numbers of vehicles in the city on Cars Per Household. Should growth in car numbers continue at 1981-2011 rates, this will increase substantially until there are approximately 1.25 cars per household across the city, putting a substantial strain on new construction to use space for parking and possibly decreasing peoples usage of public transport as there’s another vehicle available for trips. 2001-2011 trends lead to a similar ending, though not to such a high extent with 1.14 vehicles per household by 2031. Should the number of cars stay the same under the fourth scenario, though, the rapid growth in the number of households leads to a sharp decline in the number cars per household to 0.79, possibly freeing up land for other usages.

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Figure 6.3: Modal Changes in Coventry

140000 1981-2011 Trends Driving a car 120000 or van 1981-2011 Trends Non Car Driver 100000 2001-2011 Trends Driving a car or van 80000 2001-2011 Trends Non Car Driver 60000 2011 Peak Car Driving a car or van 2011 Peak Car Non Car Driver 40000

Base Car Driving a car or van 20000 Base Car Non Car Driver 0 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031

6.2.6 Figure 6.3 looks at the numbers of trips made by residents in the city as car drivers and by other modes. 6.2.7 Should trends return to those seen in the long term from 1981 to 2011, then the number of car trips to work originating in the city will increase by close to 25% by 2031. Under this scenario there would also be a reduction in the number of ‘Non Car Driver’ trips, reflecting a return to the period of decline in public transport, walking and cycling seen between 1981 and 2001. This could have serious impacts on the city’s public transport operators as well as the health of the city’s residents. 6.2.8 Should 2001 to 2011 trends continue then the growth in car use would continue, however the recovery in ‘Non Car Driver’ modes such as walking, rail and working from home would also continue, leading to increased trips in those sectors. 6.2.9 Should the number of car trips become fixed due to a peak car scenario and the number of ‘Non Car Driver’ trips is estimated absorb the difference in trips then ‘Non Car Driver’ trips will actually become the dominant mode share after 2021. Should the mode shares follow a similar distribution to the present, then the majority of this growth will go to walking, rail and working from home (this last meaning that there might actually be a decline in ‘actual’ trips). Given that these modes aren’t necessarily suitable for each trip, it might be expected that the decline in the usage of other options might also be turned around under this scenario, so there could also be a growth in the demand for bus and cycle travel.

6.3 Warwickshire Trends 6.3.1 This section reviews the impacts on car ownership and usage in Warwickshire under the scenarios set out in section 6.1.

6.3.2 Warwickshire historically has greater car ownership and usage then Coventry. This means that even should the number of cars become fixed at the current cars per household level then the number of cars will still increase by approximately 30,000 vehicles when the growth in the number of households is factored in. Should the future trends follow those seen historically, then there could be up to 150,000 additional vehicles in the county by 2031 with serious implications for infrastructure and the usage of other modes. Figure 6.4: The Number of Cars compared to the number of Households in Warwickshire

Number of Cars and Households in Warwickshire 500,000

1981-2011 Trends 450,000

400,000 2001-2011 Trends 350,000

300,000 Peak Car (Cars Per e l t i Household Fixed at 2011 T 250,000 s

i Levels) x A

200,000 Peak Car (Car Numbers Stop Growing in 2011, Cars Per 150,000 Household Reduces Accordingly) 100,000 Existing Figures

50,000

Households - 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031

6.3.3 Figure 6.4 shows the impact of the differing scenarios on the number of cars in Warwickshire. Under the 1981 to 2011 trend scenario, the number of vehicles in the County climbs exponentially, with nearly 150,000 extra vehicles in the city 2031. Under the 2001-2011 scenarios the rate of climb is less, however there’s still a substantial increase of 60,000 vehicles by 2031. 6.3.4 Considering the pre-existing high car ownership per household, it is perhaps not surprising to see that the peak car scenario, whilst showing slow growth than the others, still results 35,000 additional vehicles in the County with the attendant impacts in terms of trip generation and land usage mentioned in regard to Coventry.

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Figure 6.5: Cars per Household in Warwickshire

Cars Per Household in Warwickshire 2.00

1.80 1981-2011 Trends

1.60

1.40 2001-2011 Trends

1.20 e l

t Peak Car (Cars Per i T 1.00 s Household Fixed at 2011 i x Levels) A 0.80 Peak Car (Car Numbers Stop Growing in 2011, Cars Per 0.60 Household Reduces Accordingly) 0.40 Existing Figures

0.20

- 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031

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6.3.5 As aforementioned car ownership in Warwickshire started at a higher level than Coventry, possibly due to its comparatively dispersed nature or maybe a reflection of its more affluent nature. On this basis, it can be observed that the number of cars per household would increase dramatically should 1981-2011 or 2001-2011 the scenarios, to 1.78 and 1.54 vehicles per household on average respectively. This would suggest a situation whereby large numbers of household possessed two or more vehicles, placing additional demand on the planning system to provide space for them. Only if the number of cars on the road is capped at current levels under the second peak car scenario then the number of cars per household starts to fall, though even then it remains above 1 vehicle per household on average. Figure 6.6: Car Usage Trends in Warwickshire by Scenario

300000

1981-2011 Trend Driving a car or van 250000 1981-2011 Trend Other Modes

200000 2001-2011 Trend Driving a car or van 2001-2011 Trend Other 150000 2011 Peak Car Driving a car or van 100000 2011 Peak Car Other

Base Years Driving a car or van 50000

Base Years Other 0 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031

6.3.6 Figure 6.6 shows that, should the trip growth patterns continue in the same was as they did from 1981-2011 Car Trips will increase by nearly 80,000 additional Car trips whilst Non Car Driver trips will remain stable, with a small initial decline to 2021 followed by a recovery and slight growth until 2031.This would place the largest demand on the road network. 6.3.7 Reflecting the slowdown in trip growth seen in Warwickshire between 2001 and 2011, should the trends from that period be continued there would be fewer cars on the road but more demand placed upon Non Car Driver trips increasing by four thousand and two thousand respectively. 6.3.8 Finally, should a peak car scenario come into effect whereby the number of cars remains the same, then the number of Non Car Driver trips would rise by approximately 66,000. Based upon the trends seen in Figure 4.10, this would most likely be shared predominantly between the ‘growth modes’ or rail and working from home, however a large scale shift away from the car would also almost certainly reverse the fortunes of the modes which have otherwise been in decline since 1981.

Project number: 70001991

Dated: 22/01/2015 102 Revised:

7 Conclusions

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Appendix 1: Additional Employment Statistics (Coventry) Figure A1.1

Figure A1.1 shows the percentage of workers in each MSOA who’re employed in higher managerial, administrative and professional occupations. The findings follow through from Figures 4 and E3- The areas where there has been an increase in people of this employment grade show lower unemployment statistics. Within the City, though, the number of people in this form of employment remains quite consistent between 2001 and 2011, with only a small gain in the percentages to the South of the centre.

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Figure A1.2

Figure A1.2 shows the number of people in employment in routine and semi route populations in the city. Given the changing employment focus shown in Employment Characteristics As seen in figure 2.1, employment in Coventry suffered from a decline between 1981 and 2001, with recovery only coming from 2001 to 2011. Looking at the employment figures in more detail reveal several trends. Firstly, whilst employment has recovered from 2001 and 2011, male employment has actually fallen overall from 1981- 2011 with the recovery seen being carried by female employment. Another feature of the employment recovery has been a shift in employment sector. The most marked decrease has been ‘real estate activities’, followed by Manufacturing and Professional, Scientific and Technical jobs. This possibly reflects the ongoing decline in the city’s car manufacturing industry with the loss of Brown’s Lane Jaguar Plant in the North West of the City and the loss of the Ryton Peugeot just outside the city’s south eastern boundary. These job losses have been replaced by a wide spread of job types, as seen in figure 2.4, which might increase the resilience of the city’s economy going forward. Curiously, despite the loss of two major plants which might be expected to hit their areas of the city, the geographies of employment in the city actually remain broadly the same between 2001 and 2011.

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Figure 2.3: No. Coventry Residents Employed by Gender

80,000 d e

y 70,000 o l p 60,000 m E

t 50,000 n e d

i 40,000 s

e Male R

f 30,000 o

Female r

e 20,000 b m

u 10,000 N 0 1981 1991 2001 2011 Year

Figure 2.3 expands on the employment element of Figure 2.1, showing the gender make up of those employed in the city. It is interesting to note that female employment has continued rising, even whilst male employment has stayed relatively stable, declining until 2001 but recovering slightly in 2011; however not returning to 1981 levels. Figure 2.4, it is possibly surprising to see that the percentage of people working in routine or semi-routine jobs appears to be increasing across the city, particularly in the North Eastern area.

Project number: 70001991

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Appendix 2: Additional Employment Statistics (Warwickshire)

Figure 6: Figure N1

Figure N1 shows the percentage of the MSOA’s population who are in Higher Managerial roles. There would appear to be an increased distribution of people in this kind of work across the county, with reductions in the area North East of Leamington and South West of Warwick replaced by a general smaller increase across the county and a more considerable increase in the area North West of Kenilworth.

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Figure 7: Figure N4

Figure N4 shows the percentage of people in routine or semi routine jobs across the county. This shows a slightly decline across much of the county, particularly south west of Warwick and on the A45 corridor in the east.

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