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Climate Change and Its Impact on the New York/ New Jersey Harbor & Estuary Program

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NEW YORK / NEW JERSEY HARBOR & ESTUARY PROGRAM Climate Change And its Impact on the New York/ New Jersey Harbor & Estuary Program Acknowledgements Table of Contents This report was produced by: Kate Boicourt and Robert Pirani with the help of Isabelle Stinnette and Ariane Giudecelli, all staff of the NY-NJ Harbor & Estuary Program. Our work greatly benefited from the insights and comments from all current and former staff, a project advisory committee Introduction and Overview 2 (listed below). We would like especially to thank the students and faculty at the Workshop in Sustainable Development Class at Barnard College—Sabrina Ramkhelawan, Barsa Barsa, Mariah Climate Stressors 4 Castillo, Hannah Spierer, Tracie Brown and Professor Martin Stute—for their assistance in conducting an initial literature survey and assessment. This report references additional assess- How HEP’s Goals are Challenged by Climate Change 10 ments conducted by David Yozzo of Glenford Environmental Science, Betsy Blair of Blair Environ- mental Consultants, and Phil Orton of Stevens Institute and David Ralston of Woods Hole Water Quality 14 Oceanographic Institute. Graphic design, mapping and data visualization by Sara Eichner and the Spatial Analysis and Visualization Initiative at Pratt Institute. Habitat and Ecological Health 18 Although the information in this document has been funded by the United States Environ- Public Access and Stewardship 24 mental Protection Agency under agreement with the Hudson River Foundation, it has not under- gone the Agency’s publications review process and therefore may not necessarily reflect the views of Port and Maritime 26 the Agency, and no official endorsement should be inferred. The viewpoints expressed here do not necessarily represent those of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, nor does mention of Community Engagement 28 trade names, commercial products, or causes constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. Works Cited 31 November, 2018 ADVISORY COMMITTEE Adam Parris, Science and Resiliency Institute at Jamaica Bay; Alan Cohn, New York City DEP; Tony McDonald, Monmouth University; William Solecki, City University of New York; Brett Branco, Brooklyn College; Curtis Cravens and Samuel Hersh, NYC Mayor’s Office of Recovery and Resiliency; Bob Chant, Rutgers University; Jeanne Herb, Rutgers University; John Waldman, Queen College; Jose Soegaard, Waterfront Alliance; Eddie Bautista, NYC Environmental Justice Alliance; Marjorie Kaplan, Rutgers University; Kristin Marcell, NYS DEC; Carolyn LaBarbiera, NYS DOS: Lauren Alleman, The Nature Conservancy; Lisa Baron, USACE; Bernice Malione, PANYNJ; Marit Larson, New York City Department of Parks and Recreation; Dana Mecomber, PANYNJ; Nava Tabak, Scenic Hudson; Robert Nyman, US EPA; Lisa Oberreiter, PVSC; Pete Weppler, USACE; Alexandre Remnek, US EPA; Robert Freudenberg, Regional Plan Association; Clay Sherman, NJ DEP; Erika Svendsen, US Forest Service; Richard Winfield, US EPA; Jeffrey Zappieri, NYS DOS. CITATION Pirani, R and Boicourt, K., 2018. Climate Change; And its Impact on the NY-NJ Harbor & Estuary Program, Hudson River Foundation. New York, NY. New York – New Jersey Harbor & Estuary Program • 17 Battery Place, Suite 915, New York, NY 10004 www.hudsonriver.org/NYNJHEPClimateVulnerability.pdf The Estuary’s ongoing challenges will be compounded by the likely impacts of a changing climate. These expected changes include warmer air and water temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, increases in extreme weather events, rising sea levels, Introduction and Overview and ocean acidification. Climate change is impacting the health of the New York–New • Sea level rise will reduce wetland and other coastal habitat, The process for identifying these stressors and assessing HEP’s As referenced throughout this report, the assessment relies Jersey Harbor and Estuary. Warmer air and water temperatures, particularly in areas where there are barriers to upland vulnerabilities was adapted from the methodology developed heavily on previous research conducted on the likely impacts of 1 increases in the number of extreme weather events, and migration. (pg. 21) by the EPA Office of Water. This vulnerability assessment is climate change in the Harbor Estuary. In addition, the following based on qualitative expert analysis of the likelihood of occur- general reports on climate change projections and likely impacts rising sea levels are already changing baseline conditions and • Increased precipitation and extreme events may impact rence of a particular risk, the sensitivity of the particular system were key resources: affecting people and wildlife. These changes are expected to wastewater and stormwater infrastructure, reducing our (i.e. “consequence of impact”) to withstand the stresses posed increase in the future. ability to meet water quality goals for primary contact • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): by that risk, and the spatial extent of the risk. The Estuary’s 250 square miles of open water and 1,600 recreation, shellfish, and floatable debris. (pg. 16) www.ipcc.ch miles of shoreline lie at the heart of the densely populated New • Increases in temperature may exacerbate dissolved oxygen Tasks included: • US Global Change Research Program and the 3rd National Climate Change Assessment: www.globalchange.gov York – New Jersey metropolitan region. Urban land uses, legacy problems, impacting the ability to meet goals for fish • Scoping of potential regional stressors based on previous • US Environmental Protection Agency Climate-Ready contaminants, and large volumes of waste and polluted storm- survival and reproduction. (pg. 15) regional climate projections and existing literature; Estuaries: www.epa.gov/cre water runoff pose significant obstacles to achieving the fish- • Maladaptive human responses to climate change can • Review of these stressors and background information by • New Jersey Climate Adaptation Alliance: able and swimmable waters called for by the Clean Water Act. impair water quality, damage habitat, and reduce public an expert committee; njadapt.rutgers.edu The Estuary’s ongoing challenges will be compounded by access, limiting public enjoyment and appreciation. (pg. 29) • Discussion of potential climate vulnerabilities at public • New York City Panel on Climate Change and their 2015 workshops conducted by HEP as part of its development the likely impacts of a changing climate. These expected • Species’ ranges will shift or be disrupted in response to Report: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ of its draft Action Agenda; changes include warmer air and water temperatures, changes changing habitat conditions, the impacts of which may be nyas.2015.1336.issue-1/issuetoc • Preparation of an initial draft framework report; in precipitation patterns, increases in extreme weather events, exacerbated by the effects of habitat fragmentation. (pg. 29) • New York State ClimAID: www.nyserda.ny.gov/climaid • Reviewing the report with core partners and technical rising sea levels, and ocean acidification. Understanding • Increased extreme precipitation and frequency of floods work groups focused on water quality, habitat, and public HEP’s organizational vulnerability to these specific stressors and drought may result in increased erosion of stream access to assess each risk in terms of the likelihood of will help shape how the Program allocates its resources and banks and streamflow changes, adding stress to vulnerable occurrence; consequence of impact; and spatial extent of where it places staff and research emphasis for the next five streams and sediment to downstream waterbodies. (pg. 23) the impact for the year 2050; years and beyond. • Higher temperatures, increased drought, and increases in • Creation of a consequence/probability matrix to identify This report was prepared to gain a greater understanding the frequency of disruptive events may increase opportu- the most important risks and using these findings to of how the risks associated with climate change stressors will nities for invasive species and shifts in disease prevalence. inform HEP’s 2017–2022 Action Agenda. limit the ability of the New York – New Jersey Harbor & Estuary (pg. 15) • Undertaking additional assessments as to how best to Program (HEP) to reach its goals for reducing pollution, mitigate the most important of these risks. HEP will be addressing the most critical of these risks in our improving and increasing habitat and public access, supporting 2017-2022 Action Agenda. We have started this process by maritime uses, and engaging communities. It is intended to commissioning three specific assessments: A Review of inform the Program’s 2017-2022 Action Agenda (www.harbor- estuary.org). In total, 17 risks were identified and evaluated by Climate Change Effects on Water Quality and Estuarine an advisory committee of climate experts and HEP’s core Biota of the NY-NJ Estuary; Research Opportunities and Next partners. Seven of these risks are seen as having a relatively Steps Towards Protecting Wetland Migration Pathways; A higher likelihood of occurrence andconsequence of impact Preliminary Evaluation of the Physical Influences of Storm and would affect all or most of the the Estuary. Numbers refer Surge Barriers on the Hudson River Estuary. Summaries of to the order of presentation by HEP Goal starting on Page 10: these reports are in this document. 1. Being Prepared for Climate Change: A Workbook for Developing Risk-Based Adaptation Plans, Climate Ready Estuaries
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