CIVIL - MILITARY FUSION CENT RE

Afghanistan Review Week 37 11 September 2012 Comprehensive Information on Complex Crises

This document provides a weekly overview of developments in from 04 – 10 September INSIDE THIS ISSUE 2012, with hyper-links to source material highlighted in blue and underlined in the text. For Economic Development more information on the topics below or other issues pertaining to events in Afghanistan, contact the members of the Afghanistan Team, or visit our website at www.cimicweb.org/cmo/afg. Governance & Rule of Law

Security & Force Protection Social & Strategic Infrastructure Economic Development Steven A. Zyck ► [email protected]

ome Afghan legislators are concerned that the Afghan government will receive only a DISCLAIMER relatively small fraction of the income from the oil deal to be signed between the Minis- try of Mines (MoM) and the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), says Wad- The Civil-Military Fusion Centre S sam. However, the MoM said that the Afghan government will receive 15% of all project reve- (CFC) is an information and knowledge management organisa- nue directly and another 20% in taxes. In addition, the Afghan government will eventually re- tion focused on improving civil- ceive 70% of the profits from the project once CNPC and its Afghan partner, Watan, have re- military interaction, facilitating couped the money they invested in extraction. In addition, MoM officials said the project will information sharing and enhancing employ 730 Afghans by the end of this year. situational awareness through the Khaama Press further noted that the Afghan MoM and CNPC are negotiating an agreement CimicWeb portal and our weekly which will require CNPC and Watan to establish a refinery in Afghanistan. Afghan lawmakers and monthly publications. had complained that the deal, as it currently stands, would enable CNPC to ship all crude oil it CFC products are based upon and extracts from Afghanistan to China for processing, thereby depriving Afghanistan of jobs and link to open-source information added income. Wais Sherdil, chief of the Amu River Fuel Deposits in the MoM, said that the from a wide variety of organisations, refinery will be established at a cost to CNPC of USD 250-350 million. CNPC and Watan are research centres and media outlets. obligated to invest half a billion US dollars in Afghanistan during the first five years of their However, the CFC does not endorse twenty-five year lease to oil and gas rights in northern Afghanistan. and cannot necessarily guarantee In other mining-related news, warlords, militia commanders and the Taliban are attempting to the accuracy or objectivity of these gain control of areas rich in minerals, according to The New York Times. While the Afghan sources. government and international community view mining as a major source of public sector reve- CFC publications are inde- nues and economic growth, independent experts and Afghan officials are increasingly con- pendently produced by Desk cerned that the country’s natural resources could fuel smuggling and conflict. In addition, ana- Officers and do not reflect lysts acknowledge there is no guarantee that foreign mining companies will start operations in NATO or ISAF policies or posi- Afghanistan soon. For instance, the Chinese firm which won the rights to the Aynak copper deposit a half decade ago now appears to be delaying the bulk of its investments until the secu- tions of any other organisation. rity situation stabilises. Khaama Press reported that an unspecified number of Chinese workers The CFC is part of NATO Allied contributing to the Aynak project have departed the country due to rising insecurity and threats Command Operations. made against them. Ahmad Tamim Asi, the public relations chief within the MoM, stated: “Only a few number of Chinese workers have left the Aynak copper mine due to security is- sues and not all of them. The workers will return back to Afghanistan as soon as the security improves.” Reports further indicated that security around the Hajigak iron ore deposit in Bami- an province is deteriorating.

The Pakistan-Afghanistan Joint Chamber of CONTACT THE CFC Commerce and Industries (PAJCCI) recently Do You Have Too completed the initial phases of a review of For further information, contact: transit trade between Afghanistan and Pakistan, Much to Read? according to Dawn. The PAJCCI called on the Afghanistan Team Leader Listen to the CFC Afghanistan Pakistani government to remove barriers which [email protected] Review Podcast on your computer, prevent Pakistani businesses from sending smartphone, tablet or other device. The Afghanistan Team goods easily to Afghanistan and onward to oth- [email protected] er parts of Central . For instance, they Click here to access the podcasts. asked that Pakistani authorities no longer require original copies of goods declarations from Afghan customs officials. Instead, they hoped that computerised systems could be put in place soon to exchange information about goods being imported and exported under the Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement . The PAJCCI also asked that the Afghan government improve its formal banking sector and discourage the use of informal money transfer systems. Lastly, the Chamber called on both the Afghan and Pakistani governments to award one-year, multiple-entry visas to traders engaged in the Afghanistan-Pakistan transit trade in order to strengthen commercial ties between the two countries and between Pakistan and the Central Asia republics, reported the Associated Press of Pakistan. Pakistan’s Commerce Ministry told the Business Recorder that it aims to increase bilateral trade with Afghanistan to USD 5 billion per year by 2015. At present, Afghanistan is Pakistan’s third largest trading partner, with bilateral commerce valued at USD 2.5 billion. Private-sector concerns about the future of the Afghan economy also surfaced. Outlook Afghanistan wrote that Afghanistan’s ability to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) in recent years has been undermined by insecurity. Despite Afghan government and international attempts to promote FDI, violence has discouraged investors from taking the risk of investing in Afghanistan. Given that Afghanistan will need greater investment as international forces begin to depart and international assistance gradually declines, Outlook Afghanistan said that the Afghan govern- ment may need to take steps to not only improve security but also deal with the other factors – corruption, energy shortages and a poor education system – that further erode investment. Striking a similar tone, Afghan business owners told CBS News that their country’s economy has been artificially inflated by the pres- ence of international stakeholders and may collapse as a portion of the international community withdraws in the coming years. The article specifically highlighted the case of two businesspeople, one who owns a transport and logistics company and the other operat- ing a clothing line. Both established their businesses following the fall of the Taliban more than a decade ago and have since thrived, largely thanks to foreign customers and international contracts. Of the many challenges facing the private sector, the article highlights the frequent kidnapping of Afghan businesspeople for ransom, which has frightened off existing entrepreneurs and potential investors. Both of the businesspeople profiled in the article suggest that they may leave Afghanistan if economic and security conditions contin- ue to deteriorate, and both note that many other entrepreneurs have already departed or are considering leaving Afghanistan.

Governance & Rule of Law Stefanie Nijssen ► [email protected]

he head of Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission (IEC), Fazel Ahmad Manawe, told Tolo News that the IEC is run- ning out of time to properly register voters for the March 2014 presidential election. Manawe said that insecurity, a lack of ac- T curate population statistics, the absence of national identification cards and uncertainties regarding funding were the primary obstacles that the IEC was striving to overcome. Manawe expressed concern that the USD 80 million required for the presidential election may not be provided in time. If preparations for the election are not complete, the IEC noted that the poll may not take place on time, thus raising a constitutional dilemma. The total cost for the upcoming presidential and provincial council elections is estimat- ed to be at least USD 149 million. Meanwhile, First Vice President Mohammad Qasim Fahim told Tolo News that a transparent elec- tion would be impossible if the security situation did not improve in Afghanistan. To this end, Fahim recommended mobilising the Mujahideen, of which Fahim himself was a part, to fight the insurgents in places where the Afghan security forces are relatively weak. Deadly ethnic violence erupted between Tajiks and Hazaras on 08 September, though the resulting number of casualties it not yet known, reports The Wall Street Journal. The episode began when a caravan of vehicles from Panjshir province carrying ethnic Tajiks struck a bicyclist in the largely Hazara neighbourhood of Pol-e Sokhta in . When the police failed to detain the Panjshiris, a con- frontation broke out between the Hazaras and Afghan police. Demonstrators set fire to four police outposts during the clash. Several witnesses said that police officers opened fire on a Hazara crowd. The confrontation occurred during a national holiday commemorat- ing Ahmad Shah Massoud, a revered Tajik commander from Panjshir who was assassinated by al Qaeda on 10 September 2001. Many Hazaras, however, still harbour bitter memories of Massoud’s violent offensive against western Kabul in 1993 in which many Hazaras were killed. Leading Tajik and Hazara figures issued statements calling for calm. On 10 September, the US military handed over control of the Bagram detention facility and the 3,000 incarcerated Afghan detainees to Afghan authorities, BBC News reported. It is not yet clear what will be done with the fifty foreign detainees held at Bagram. A US official told Voice of America News that their status will be the subject of future discussions. The US government has decided to formally classify the Haqqani Network as a terrorist organisation, according to The New York Times. Several US government and military officials said the move would help stifle the group’s fundraising activities and could pres- sure Islamabad to open a military offensive against the Pakistan-based insurgent network. However, other US officials cited by The New York Times said “blacklisting” the group could damage America’s already fraught relations with Pakistan and could jeopardise the safety of a US soldier known currently held by the Haqqanis. Meanwhile, a Haqqani commander told Al Jazeera that the group will not harm the American prisoner in retribution but will continue to target US troops in Afghanistan. A report from the UK Royal United Services Institute found that the Taliban is willing to cooperate with the United States on security and take part in peace negotiations in return for international political recognition, according to The Telegraph. The report was com- piled following interviews with four individuals, including former Taliban ministers, one of the Taliban’s founders and a Mujahideen commander, who are close to Taliban supreme leader Mullah Mohammad Omar. According to the report:

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. The Taliban would accept a long-term US military presence in Afghanistan, including five bases located in major cities across the

country, including Kandahar, Herat, Jalalabad, Mazar-e-Sharif and Kabul, to help rebuild the country until 2024.

. The Taliban’s leadership and the “base” deeply regret their past association with al Qaeda and would completely renounce the terrorist network once a ceasefire has been declared.

. The Taliban would reject the current Afghan constitution so that any ceasefire would not be considered “surrender”, and they would not negotiate with President Karzai or his administration, which they consider to be corrupt and weak. . The Taliban would expect the US government to pledge not to launch attacks on Pakistan or , including drone strikes, from Afghanistan. The four representatives said that they could not speak for the Taliban’s hard-line military commission, though they did verify that Mullah Omar supported the plan and continued to exercise broad control over the group. Abdul Hakim Mujahid, who is the deputy chief of the Afghan High Peace Council and a former Taliban leader, confirmed that some senior Taliban figures were hoping to nego- tiate a ceasefire. In related news, Dawn reported that Pakistan agreed to provide safe passage to Taliban leaders living in Pakistan so that they are able to participate in reconciliation talks with the Afghan government. Meanwhile, Sima Samar, the chairperson of the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission, told the Inter Press Service that peace talks have thus far been undercut by differing agendas among the various stakeholders. In hopes of spurring local-level reconcil- iation, Afghan civil society organisations are reportedly focusing on peace-building projects within and among communities. The Sa- nayee Development Organisation, for instance, has started a conflict-resolution project focused upon madrasas (religious schools). Several Afghan and foreign journalists decided to abstain from covering the current session of the Wolesi Jirga, the lower house of the Afghan parliament, writes Pajhwok Afghan News. The journalists’ decision was motivated by their belief that the parliamentary ses- sion is being censored. In the past, journalists observed the Wolesi Jirga first hand from the gallery. Now, however, journalists have been asked to watch a broadcast of the proceedings from a nearby room. Several journalists allege that the broadcasts are interrupted – allegedly due to technical problems – to prevent them from seeing or hearing particular incidents or discussions. The Afghan constitu- tion states that the media has the right to observe legislative sessions. Officials from the Attorney General’s Office (AGO) said that about 1,500 acres (607 hectares) of government land around Qargha Lake in Kabul city had previously been illegally seized, according to Ariana News. Hence, the AGO has started to re-claim the land, which has been partly been developed into small residential communities. Ariana noted that many senior Afghan government officials are allegedly involved in seizing public lands.

Security & Force Protection Mark Checchia ► [email protected]

fghan Ministry of Defence (MoD) spokesman General Mohammad Zahir Azimi announced on 05 September that “hundreds” of members of the Afghan National Army (ANA) would be dismissed for having links to insurgents or because the documents A they used to join the ANA were considered suspicious or forged, according to Khaama Press. The Afghan MoD said these steps are intended to help prevent “insider” attacks in which members of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) turn their weapons on foreign troops. To help understand and prevent future insider attacks, the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) and the Afghan government have formed new joint intelligence teams to investigate every “green-on-blue” incident, Tolo News reported. ISAF Deputy Command- er Lieutenant General Adrian Bradshaw said that the joint teams will share information and receive input from Afghans on cultural and religious matters. In related news, Reuters said that Afghan MoD officials are issuing ANSF troops pamphlets which offer guidance on how to handle cultural differences with their foreign partners in order to help prevent insider attacks. ISAF recently said that approximately three quarters of all insider shootings are caused by personal grievances and misunderstandings. The pamphlets provide information on cul- tural issues and, for instance, state the following: “Coalition troops may ask about the women in your family. Do not take offence, they just want friendly relations with you. In return, teach them that Afghans do not discuss their families’ women with others.” The pamphlet urges Afghan troops not to be upset when foreign troops pass in front of them during prayer, which is considered disrespect- ful in Islam. ISAF troops are also receiving extra cultural awareness training to prevent misunderstandings and reduce the number of insider attacks. A number of other security incidents occurred this past week, including those summarised below. . An ISAF statement confirmed the death of Haqqani leader Shabeer, who was killed an airstrike in Pul-e Alam district in Logar province on 02 September. In the days prior to his death, Shabeer was believed to have been acquiring explosives, weapons and insurgents for a high-profile attack using vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices. . The next day, in the same district, Afghan and ISAF forces said they called in a precision airstrike that killed two armed insur-

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gents who were in the process of transporting weapons, including rocket-propelled grenades, towards a populated area.

. At least 25 people were killed and more than 50 others were injured following a suicide bomb blast on 04 September in Nangarhar province, Khaama Press reported. Officials said the suicide bomber detonated his explosives at a funeral ceremony for a local tribal elder in Dur Baba district. . Two ISAF soldiers were killed in a helicopter crash in Logar province in eastern Afghanistan on 05 September, reported Khaama

Press. This marked the third time an ISAF helicopter crashed in Afghanistan during the preceding 10 days. Area residents said

heavy gunfire broke out following the crash. . Afghan and ISAF forces killed a Taliban cell leader known as Ajmal (and as Ahmed Shah) during an operation in Nad-e Ali dis- trict in Helmand province on 06 September. The cell leader was believed to have directed insurgent activity throughout western Helmand. . Six Afghan civilians were kidnapped and killed in Wardak province on 09 September, reported Khaama Press. An official with the Afghan National Directorate for Security (NDS) confirmed the abductions and murders. A number of civilians, including university students, from Bamian province were recently killed while traveling through the same area. . A suicide bomber killed at least six Afghan civilians and wounded four others in a well-guarded part of Kabul near embassies and the ISAF headquarters on 09 September, according to The New York Times. Some reports have asserted the attacker was tar- geting a US Central Intelligence Agency facility, a claim that ISAF would neither confirm nor deny.

Social & Strategic Infrastructure Rainer Gonzalez ► [email protected]

recent survey found that a third of young children in southern Afghanistan are acutely malnourished, reported The Guardian. The most affected provinces are Kandahar and Helmand, where fighting has been particularly intense during the past decade. A Michael Keating, deputy head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, said: “This is the kind of malnutrition you associate with Africa and some of the most deprived parts of the world, not with an area that has received so much international attention and assistance.” Some experts indicated that malnutrition in southern Afghanistan results more from a lack of nutrients than from a lack of food. Elham Monsef, a UN nutrition specialist, said that many Afghan women do not understand breast feeding. Hence, many reportedly give their infants substitutes such as tea, water or heavily diluted milk, which have little or no nutritional value, in- stead of breast milk. In addition, enriched flour and iodized salt, which are necessary to promote nutrition and healthy brain develop- ment, are rarely used in Afghanistan. In related news, the Afghan Ministry of Public Health, the Khalifa Bin Zayed Al Nahyan Foundation, the Global Alliance for Im- proved Nutrition and the World Food Programme launched a partnership to reach 15 million Afghans with nutritionally-fortified wheat flour, vegetable oil and ghee. This partnership aims to improve nutrition amongst the general population and, in particular, amongst vulnerable groups such as children under the age of five. The Pakistani government and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) are jointly developing a project to finance the rehabilitation of the road network connecting Afghanistan and Pakistan, reported the Business Recorder. The Peshawar- Torkham and Kalaw-Quetta-Chaman roads, in particular, have deteriorated after being repeatedly used by heavy trucks carrying goods to international forces in Afghanistan. USAID is likely to provide USD 1.46 billion for the road rehabilitation effort. The US Congress has allocated USD 31 million for the repair of three turbines at the Daronta Dam, according to Wadsam. The Afghan government will provide USD 2.5 million, and a private foundation will contribute USD 500,000. The governor of Nangarhar prov- ince, Gul Agha Sherzai, said that the rehabilitation process at the dam would be transparent and monitored by court officials and the National Directorate of Security. Daronta Dam was built in 1964 by Soviet companies and has three turbines. The turbines were origi- nally able to supply up to 40 MW but are currently producing only a small fraction of that amount of power. The World Bank will provide Afghanistan with a USD 125 million grant to finance the on-going Education Quality Improvement Pro- ject (EQUIP), according to a press release. The grant, which will be provided through the Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund, aims to increase access to basic education, provide teacher training and strengthen institutional capacity. Similarly, the Danish gov- ernment has pledged USD 300 million for the Afghan Ministry of Education, said Wadsam. The funding will enable the construction of 283 schools, the provision of supplies to 3,000 schools and the training of 186,000 teachers; the Danish contribution will also help finance a new education monitoring system.

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Humanitarian Update

A team from Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) visited the Islands of Samos, Leros and Simi in Greece to respond of a recent influx of Afghan as well as Syrian migrants, according to an MSF press release. The team found that the migrants had limited access to healthcare, shelter and water and sanitation. In related news, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) is providing financial support and supplies to more than a hundred Afghan refugee and asylum-seeker children in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan. Many Afghan families are unable to afford schooling for the new school year. Approximately 300 Afghan children newly enrol in Kyrgyz schools each year. UNHCR also finances pre-school lessons in mathematics and the Kyrgyz, Russian, English languages for Afghan refugee children to help prepare them to enter the Kyrgyz school system. According to the Inter Press Service, Afghan Hazaras are being persecuted in Pakistan because of their ethnicity. There are almost a one million Hazaras living in Pakistan, including 600,000 in Quetta alone. They fled Afghanistan to Pakistan more than one hun- dred years ago. As a result of their mistreatment in Pakistan, more than 25,000 Hazaras left Pakistan in the last decade, the vast majority of them in the last three years. The exodus has been fuelled by the rise in targeted killings of Hazaras; last year alone 47 Hazaras were reportedly murdered in Pakistan. Rather than returning to Afghanistan, many Pakistani Hazaras are departing for , and Turkey, where there are well established Hazara communities.

Recent Readings & Resources

. “The Haqqani Network: A Foreign Terrorist Organization”, Institute for the Study of War, 05 September 2012, by Jeffrey Dressler. . “Winning Hearts and Minds in Uruzgan Province”, Feinstein International Center, Tufts University, September 2012, by Paul Fishstein. . “Initial Market Price Bulletin for the month of August 2012 (Reported in Sep 2012)”, Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping – Afghanistan, World Food Programme, 06 September 2012. . “Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration and Security Sector Reform: Insights from UN Experience in Afghanistan, Burundi, the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo”, LIT, August 2012. . “Taliban Perspectives on Reconciliation”, Royal United Services Institute, September 2012, by Michael Semple et al.

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