Prepared by Anelile Gibixego MISTRA THE FUTURE OF IN SOUTH AFRICA

1. Unemployment in RSA

2. Causes of unemployment

3. The future of the unemployed

4. Solutions for the unemployed

5. Conclusions

6. Acknowledgements UNEMPLOYMENT

▪ Labour force: Viable individuals aged between 15 -64

▪ Structural unemployment: Long term unemployment as a result of a country being unable to absorb all those eligible into the labour force

▪ Cyclical unemployment: Demand-deficient unemployment. Occurs during a recession phase of the business cycle

▪ Frictional unemployment: Temporary unemployment which exists due to people being in the process of moving from one job to another.

▪ Household Work: Caring of children, elders, managing a household UNEMPLOYMENT STATISTICS

Unemployment rates (RSA) according to gender from 2008 – 2017 (StatsSA) Unemployment rates in RSA according to labour force participation 2008 to 2017 Individuals not in , or training (NEET) for aged 15-24 in RSA according to race and gender from 2008 to 2017 (StatsSA) Unemployment rates in RSA according to level of education from 2008 to 2017 (StatsSA)

CAUSES FOR UNEMPLOYMENT

▪ Bi-directional causality - Poverty trap and apartheid legacy ▪ Lack of skills and education – Poor basic education and training ▪ Ineffective looking ▪ Poses a threat to the dignity of people ( lack of education, lack of sanitation, high affinity to crime) ▪ Lack of purpose: “Work is an essential part of God’s original purpose for human life at creation.” Cloete, 2015 SKILLS AND TRAINING ▪ Learners are illiterate in English and Maths when they leave Grade 12 ▪ Teacher effectiveness ▪ Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET)

▪ South Africans have been studying, why is the UR increasing? ▪ Qualifications obtained are of little use in the workplace

▪ SA can no longer create jobs for the skilled workforce we wish we had instead must create the jobs for low- skilled and low wage jobs (CDE)

▪ Expand the pool of skills available to the South African economy ▪ a solid foundation of knowledge and skills ▪ recruiting skilled people from abroad -Australia 4TH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION

▪ Artificial intelligence, advanced robotics, autonomous and near autonomous vehicles and 3-D printing

▪ Sustainable development Increase in Economic Profitable business models – higher efficiency & quality Decrease environmental impact (Virtual communication, less GHG emission and less waste production )

▪ Technical unemployment ▪ Slowly making skilled workers absolete ▪ Creative destruction ▪ Old jobs will be lost and new jobs will be created ▪ Disruption ▪ Automation of certain industries

THE - THE NEW DANGEROUS CLASS

▪ Viable individuals that aren’t in training, education or employed (NEET) ▪ No access to the economy ▪ Unstable income and employment ▪ Vulnurability ▪ Scams, debt and undignified work ▪ Mental illness (Anxiety) ▪ Suicide & nihilism

▪ Who is in this class? Artistic people and the “free spirited” Not permanently employed Migrants Fresh graduates Convicts THE PRECARIAT- IN SOUTH AFRICA? ▪ Lack of access to the seven forms of labour related security ▪ Labour Market ▪ Employment security ▪ Job security ▪ Work security ▪ Representative security ▪ Skill production security ▪ Income security

▪ Demonstrations 946 323 working days lost as a result of 122 strikes in 2016 - Industrial Action report WAITHOOD

▪ Prolonged period of suspension between childhood and adulthood ▪ Recent protest movements, led by young people, stem directly from the economic and social pressures they suffer, and from their pervasive political marginalisation ▪ These social movements have been able to overthrow regimes, systemic transformation takes time and requires more than a mere change in leadership Introduction of a Basic Income Grant Advancement of SMMEs Public and civil service BASIC INCOME GRANT ▪ Basic income stipend without a condition or a means test as opposed to the current system ▪ Positive Impacts: ▪ Children: Education ( increase in attendance and in affordability and the child will not have to work to boost household income) -Brazilian bolsa escola schemes

▪ Women: Afford to go look for work, Community work and voluntary work and informal petty farming -Brazilian bolsa escola schemes

▪ Economy: Increase as more people are participating in it

▪ Social Impacts: Increase in dignity, nutrition and encouragement Increase in morale and innovation BASIC INCOME in South Africa?

▪ Cost Impacts and affordability

▪ Inflamattory – means test (not everyone)

▪ Induce unproductivity

▪ Lowering of wages

COSATU: BIG should be included in the country’s comprehensive social security plan, which is currently been drawn up by government. –Nov ‘17

Public Service: Individuals entering public and civil service for a stipend SMALL, MEDIUM AND MICRO ENTERPRISES ▪ Needed for the economy: - 66% of the gross domestic product (Global entrepreneurship monitor 2016/2017)

▪ Job creation & alleviate poverty - Innovation and creativity

▪ Independence: “Informal business owners created work with benefits beyond income” Roncolato1 and Willoughby, 2017 WHY DO SMMES FAIL?

▪ 75% of SMMEs fail in the first 42 months

▪ SMMEs have support from National Empowerment Fund (NEP) Small Enterprise Development Agency (SEDA) National Small Business Advisory Council

▪ Failure because of economic unsustainability ▪ Finances ▪ Location & Network ▪ Management

CONCLUSIONS

▪ SMMEs are feted to be the future of business, representing 40 percent of all business in SA; it has been forecast by the National Development Plan that by 2030, 90 percent of all new jobs will be in SMMEs. ▪ Projected unemployment rate will be 28.6% by 2022 ▪ Industry 4.0 will cause a change in unemployment – many jobs will be made redundant but the human is required ▪ A BIG with condition would assist the unemployed and curb further protests

ACKNOWLEGEMENTS

▪ Thank you to the center for development and enterprise and the Institute of Futures Research for their contributions towards this research topic