Changing Skies Over Central VOLUME 12, ISSUE 2 SUMMER 2015 NOAA’S NATIONAL WEAT HER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC El Niño Putting Breaks on 2015 Atlantic INSIDE THIS ISSUE: Hurricane Season...so far.

Hurricane 2 an El Niño episode when the Preparedness 3-month average sea-surface temperature departure ex- Raleigh Fore- 3 ceeds 0.5 C in the east- casters Partici- central equatorial Pacific. pate in Forecast While this may not seem like Experiment a very big difference in tem- perature, the energy that has NWS Raleigh 4 to go into raising the temper- Supports EM at ature of a basin of water as Rolling Stones large as the Pacific Ocean is Concert quite substantial. There is RDU Completes 5 also such a thing as “ENSO- StormReady neutral,” which refers to Certification those periods when neither El Niño nor La Niña is pre- NWS Raleigh 6 sent. During these periods, Forecasters Fig 1. 2009 North Atlantic Hurricane season Track Map the ocean temperatures, Participate in tropical rainfall patterns, and Broadcast atmospheric winds over the Conference Sometimes, it is hard to link the central and east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean are planetary scale phenomenon, equatorial Pacific, while La near the long-term average. like El Niño, to smaller scale Niña refers to the cold phase. weather features, but the link Both are naturally occurring So, how do El Niño and La between tropical cyclone phenomena that result from Niña affect the Atlantic hurri- activity in the Atlantic Basin interactions between the cane season? An easy way to and El Niño is relatively clear. ocean surface and the atmos- think of it would be that El phere over the tropical Pacif- Niño results in less Tropical El Niño and La Niña repre- ic. Changes in the ocean sur- Cyclone formation and La sent the warm and cool phas- face temperatures affect trop- Niña results in more Tropical es of the El Niño/Southern ical rainfall patterns and at- Cylones. During El Niño Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, mospheric winds over the years there are more hurri- respectively. The ENSO cycle Pacific Ocean, which in turn canes in the Pacific and less in refers to the coherent and impact the ocean tempera- the Atlantic. This is largely sometimes very strong year- tures and currents and can due to the lower (higher) to-year variations in sea- cause changes in the weather vertical wind shear over the surface temperatures, con- patterns around the world. Pacific (Atlantic). Wind shear vective rainfall, surface air Basically, El Niño shifts the is bad for hurricanes and thus pressure, and atmospheric global pattern and places lower shear is more favorable circulation that occur across once favorable for tropical for Tropical Cyclone for- the equatorial Pacific Ocean. cylone formation are no long- mation. The opposite follows El Niño refers to the periodic er as favorable. NOAA’s Cli- for La Niña years. Currently, warming (warm phase) in sea- mate Prediction Center we are in an El Niño phase, surface temperatures across (CPC) declares the onset of (continued on page 7) P A G E 2 NC Emergency Management Urges Preparedness During Hurricane Season

July 3, 2014, made history as the earliest hurricane to make in North Caro- lina since 1901.

Be Ready

“As we saw in ear- Take steps to be ready long before the first storm warn- ly May with Tropi- ings are issued. Make an cal Storm Ana and emergency plan, then prac- tice it with your family. last year with Hur- Write down the evacuation ricane Arthur, Emergency Preparedness Kit (NCDPS-NCEM) routes you may need. Build – or update- an emergency tropical storms supply kit and have it ready North Carolina has seen its and hurricanes can Summer in North Carolina to go with enough non- share of damaging hurri- is famous for beach trips, perishable food and bottled occur any time. canes. Since 1954, 27 hurri- fresh local produce and lazy water (1 gallon per person canes or tropical storms While most storms days. It’s a great time to kick per day) to last three to sev- have had lasting impacts on back and relax. In North en days. tend to strike Carolina, summer relaxing the state. According to the , a North Carolina goes hand-in-hand with hur- Kits also should include: ricane preparation. tropical storm or hurricane between August will make direct landfall on  Copies of insurance pa- “North Carolina is known and October, it’s North Carolina’s coast pers and identification for its pristine beaches and about once every two years. sealed in a watertight never too early to relaxing atmosphere yet it is plastic bag a lightning rod for tropical “No part of our state is be ready.” storms,” said Mike Spray- immune from tropical  First-aid kit berry, North Carolina storms and hurricanes,” said Emergency Management Sprayberry. “The heavy rain,  Weather radio and damaging winds and flooding Director. “As we saw in batteries early May with Tropical brought by hurricanes can Storm Ana and last year devastate a community.  Supply of prescription Many residents remember with Hurricane Arthur, medicines tropical storms and hurri- the destruction Hurricanes canes can occur any time. Hugo, Fran, Floyd, Frances,  Bedding While most storms tend to Ivan and Irene caused; pow- strike North Carolina be- er outages, floods, land-  Changes of clothes tween August and October, slides, toppled trees and it’s never too early to be wind destruction.”  Hygiene items such as ready.” toothbrush, toothpaste, Hurricane Arthur, a Cate- gory 1 storm that struck soap and deodorant

CHANGING SKIES VOLUME 12, ISSUE 2 P A G E 3

 Cash or checkbook Also, review and update your levels. It also provides basic homeowners' or renters’ in- instructions on making emer-  Pet supplies including surance policies to make sure gency plans, supply kits and food, water, leashes, bed- they include coverage for acci- what to do before, during and ding, muzzle and vaccina- dental damage, natural disas- after different emergencies. Go tion records ters and, if necessary, flood to insurance. Stay informed during severe http://www.ReadyNC.org weather using a battery- Sprayberry said preparing for for more information and de- powered radio. Monitor the emergencies before they strike tails on how to develop an weather reports and heed the can make the recovery process emergency supplies kit and warnings of local and state easier and quicker. specific details about preparing officials. Evacuate quickly The free ReadyNC mobile app your home for a hurricane. when told to do so. And pay provides real-time information close attention to flooded or on traffic, weather, opened -Laura Leonard washed-out roads. shelters and riverine flood

NWS Raleigh Forecasters Test New Forecast Techniques in Oklahoma

Over the last few years, sever- al forecasters at NWS Raleigh have been fortunate to have been a part of a crucial R2O- focused laboratory called the Hazardous Weather Testbed, or HWT. The HWT is con- ducted each spring and sum- mer at the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) in Norman, OK, and comprises several different experiments that focus on hazardous Hazardous Weather Testbed in Norman, OK weather needs. Forecasters A great deal of important R2O. In R2O, various tests from around the world are meteorological research is and experiments are designed brought into the HWT every done every day around the and conducted in which opera- year to test out new ideas and world. The task of linking tional forecasters try out the techniques. researchers and operational latest and greatest discoveries This past May, WFO Raleigh meteorologists is often ac- and innovations from the re- Senior Forecaster Gail Hart- complished through some- search community, to assess field had the opportunity to thing called “research-to- their effectiveness and viability participate in the Spring operations”, abbreviated in an operational environment. (continued on page 8) P A G E 4 NWS Raleigh Provides Decision Support at Rolling Stones Concert

this event “In today’s world, anyone can to improve pull out their smart phone or on-site tablet radar app and make a briefing reasonable assessment about services. the thunderstorm potential The team at any given location; howev- discovered er, nothing beats having mobile in- NWS expertise at your side ternet can when making weather-related get quickly decisions that can affect the bogged safety of tens of thousands of down when people,” said WCM Nick 40,000 peo- Petro, NWS Raleigh. “That’s ple in a what onsite decision support confined services provided to our lo- area are cal, state, and federal govern- using their ment partners is all about,” smart Petro said. “The team briefed phones and overwhelm- WFO Raleigh is housed on emergency officials ing the data NC State’s Centennial Cam- as severe thunder- flow pro- pus. WFO Raleigh and NC vided by State have a great relation- storms moved in nearby cell ship. In addition to support- Forecaster Katie Dedeaux watching phone tow- ing the university emergency from the west, po- storms approaching Carter Finley Stadium ers. While managers, this decision sup- there was port event provided a great tentially threatening NWS Raleigh recently pro- just enough bandwidth availa- learning opportunity for the more than vided onsite decision support ble to maintain timely radar WFO Raleigh’s Hollings to North Carolina State Uni- updates, they quickly adjusted Scholar Raelene Campbell. 40,000 attendees at versity Emergency Manage- their data strategy and re- Raelene, stationed at Raleigh ment during the July 1st Roll- frained from downloading for the summer and working this outdoor event.” ing Stones Concert at NC nonessential weather prod- on a North Carolina Torna- State’s Raleigh campus. Ra- ucts. do Climatology project, had leigh forecaster Katie De- the opportunity to experi- deaux and Hollings Scholar Another best practice was ence first-hand one of the Raelene Campbell were on the collaboration that took key components of the NWS site in the stadium’s fourth place not only between the Weather-Ready Nation initia- floor incident command post. onsite NWS staff and the tive. The team briefed emergency emergency officials, but also officials as severe thunder- between the onsite NWS WFO Raleigh has a growing storms moved in from the staff and the staff back at the decision support program west, potentially threatening forecast office. Katie and that includes weekly impact the more than 40,000 at- Raelene frequently conferred weather briefings, high- tendees at this outdoor by phone with the evening impact weather webinars and event. Fortunately, the shift staff about pending thun- email briefings, remote storms weakened before derstorm warning decisions weather support via the reaching the stadium and the and storm timing. This collab- state’s 800 Megahertz radio concert went on without oration was especially im- system, a robust social media weather-related delays. portant given that severe program, and on-site decision thunderstorm warnings were support services for high- Katie and Raelene learned in effect just a short distance impact events and incidents. several best practices from west of the concert venue. -Nick Petro

CHANGING SKIES VOLUME 12, ISSUE 2 P A G E 5 When Seconds Count, StormReady Communities are Prepared

Nearly 90% of all presidentially mitigation and emergency declared disasters are weather- response plans. related, leading to around 500  Establish a 24-hour Warning deaths per year and nearly $14 Point and Emergency Oper- billion in damage. To help Amer- ations Center. icans guard against the ravages of severe weather, NOAA’s  Establish multiple ways to National Weather Service receive severe weather (NWS) designed the Storm- warnings and forecasts and Ready program. StormReady to alert the public. helps arm America’s communi-  Create a system that moni- Raleigh-Durham International Airport officials re- ties with the communication and tors weather conditions ceiving their StormReady recognition sign. From safety skills they need to save locally. lives and protect property. left: Michael Landguth, RDU President and CEO;  Promote the importance of Nick Petro, WCM NWS Raleigh, NC; Don Atkin- Many laws and regulations exist public readiness through son, RDU Airport Operations Officer; Duane Le- to help local emergency manag- community seminars, severe gan, RDU Vice President of Airport Operations; ers deal with hazardous material weather spotter training John Graves, RDU Director of Operations; and spills, search and rescue opera- and by conducting emergen- Richard (Dickie) Thompson, RDU Board Chair- tions, medical crises, etc., but cy exercises. man. there are few guidelines dealing with the specifics of hazardous In early July, NWS Raleigh had ways impressed by RDU’s readi- weather response. The NWS the pleasure and honor of rec- ness and understanding of what recognized this need and de- ognizing Raleigh-Durham Inter- they need to do to keep the signed StormReady to help com- national Airport (RDU) as its folks who work at and travel munities of all kinds – towns, newest StormReady Communi- through RDU safe during severe cities, counties, Tribal Nations, ty. The emergency management weather episodes,” said Nick universities, airports, and indus- and safety personnel at RDU not Petro, Warning Coordination trial complexes – implement only meet the six primary guide- Meteorologist at NWS Raleigh. procedures to reduce the po- lines to become StormReady, “RDU takes severe weather tential for disastrous weather- but they also take the time to seriously, and their proactive related consequences. To be exercise their comprehensive and protective actions during recognized as StormReady, com- hazardous weather response recent severe weather drills and munities must meet guidelines plan by conducting table top live severe weather episodes established by the NWS in part- exercises and live drills, and have demonstrated that RDU is nership with federal, state, and NWS Raleigh representatives StormReady,” said Petro. local emergency management are often invited to participate in professionals. More specifically, these drills. Communicating and For more information about to be recognized as Storm- collaborating with NWS Raleigh StormReady, please visit http:// Ready, communities must: is a key component of RDU’s www.nws.noaa.gov/stormready. severe weather readiness and  Incorporate severe weather -Nick Petro awareness program. “I am al- threats into their hazard P A G E 6 NWS Raleigh Participates in Local Broadcast Meteorology Conference

For many years, the NWS whose program chairpersons presentation, co-authored by Forecast Office in Raleigh has included local TV meteorolo- NCSU PhD student Bryce fostered a strong partnership gist and producer Nate John- Tyner and NWS Wilmington with our local community of son. SOO Reid Hawkins, was the TV meteorologists, helping Gail Hartfield, NWS Raleigh result of several years of each other in our missions to Senior Forecaster, gave a intensive research and exper- inform and protect the people presentation titled, “Lightning imentation toward better of Central North Carolina. In Forecasts and Communi- forecasts of sustained winds cating Light- and gusts during landfalling ning Threats tropical cyclones, as well as for Central improved presentation of North Caroli- these wind forecasts for the na”, in which public and emergency offi- she detailed cials. NWS Forecast Offices the Raleigh across the region have al- office’s past ready had chances to apply research into these new forecast tech- highly-active niques for real-time storms, lightning days including Subtropical Storm in North Car- Ana which affected the re- olina, recent gion this past May. This re- research with search group has collaborat- Dr. Gary ed with the National Hurri- Lackmann at cane Center to refine these NWS Raleigh Senior Forecaster Gail Hartfield discusses North Caroli- forecast techniques and ex- na State Uni- pand them to other areas. lightning prediction and communication of lightning threats versity This new way of creating and to attendees of the broadcaster conference. (NCSU) con- presenting tropical cyclone cerning wind information is expected June, we had the opportunity weather patterns associated to greatly help the broadcast to meet with our media part- with active lightning events, meteorologists better convey ners once again when two and the development of ex- the wind threats and impacts forecasters gave presentations perimental lightning forecasts. to the public. at the American Meteorologi- Given that 23 people have These presentations aren’t cal Society’s (AMS) Confer- been killed by lightning across the only time that NWS Ra- ence on Broadcast Meteorol- the United States so far in leigh will be a part of AMS ogy and the Conference on 2015, well above the average, activities this summer. The Weather Warnings and Com- the topics of lightning predic- AMS will be conducting their munication, which were held tion and improving communi- Summer Community Meeting at the Raleigh Convention cation of lightning threats to in Raleigh in August, in which Center in downtown Raleigh. emergency officials and to government, academia, and The AMS is the largest profes- the public were very timely industry will be brought to- sional organization for mete- and well received by the gether to identify opportuni- orologists, with over 13,000 broadcast meteorologist au- ties to collaborate, increase members from all across the dience. consistency, and build great- weather and earth science Jonathan Blaes, NWS Raleigh er trust within the weather community. The AMS publish- Science and Operations Of- enterprise and outward to es ten journals and conducts ficer (SOO), gave a presenta- the public. Both Jonathan conferences all around the tion titled, “Improving the Blaes and NWS Raleigh country several times a year. Forecasts of Wind and Wind Warning Coordination Mete- Over 250 meteorologists Gusts in Tropical Cyclones orologist Nick Petro will across the country attended for More Effective Hazard participate in this meeting. this successful conference, Communication.” This -Gail Hartfield

CHANGING SKIES VOLUME 12, ISSUE 2 P A G E 7

El Niño and Atlantic Hurricanes (continued from page 1)

tropical systems: 2 depres- sions, 7 tropical storms, and 12 hurricanes. That map is shown in Figure 2. While it is clear that El Niño is having an effect on the num- ber of tropical cyclones form- ing in the Atlantic, it is im- portant to remain vigilant be- cause one storm hitting the coast is more impactful than 15 storms that aren’t hitting the coast. Now is the time to make sure your hurricane preparedness kits are up to date and for your family to make a hurricane plan so that if one does threaten, you will Fig 2. 2010 North Atlantic Hurricane season Track Map be ready. -Kathleen Pelczynski and which is fairly easy to figure out Atlantic, doesn’t mean we are NOAA Sources when looking at the number of off the hook. One storm, such tropical cyclones that have de- as Hurricane Andrew in 1992, veloped this season. In the At- can have a significant impact on El Niño / La Niña Snapshot lantic there have been 3 named coastal and inland locations El Niño storms, all of which were tropi- along the East coast of the U.S. cal storms and one of which and the . NOAA  At least 0.5°C Warmer (Ana) developed prior to the will issue an updated outlook for start of the Atlantic Hurricane the Atlantic hurricane season in Waters in the Pacific season. In the Pacific, there have early August, just prior to the Ocean been 7 named storms, 4 of historical peak of the season. which were hurricanes. The  Generally less Atlantic A quick comparison of the At- Climate Prediction Center’s Hurricanes Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) also lantic hurricane season from confirms we are in an El Niño, 2009 (the last time we had an El La Niña with gradually increasing SST Niño) and 2010 (La Niña) is a anomalies over the past several good demonstration of how the  At least 0.5°C Cooler 3 month running averages. In two impact the Tropical Atlantic Waters in the Pacific fact, the current 3 month run- and Gulf of Mexico. Ironically Ocean ning average is 0.9°C which is enough, the storm names for almost twice the amount needed this season (2015) are the same  Generally more Atlantic to be considered an El Niño. as those from 2009 as they cycle When the CPC released their every 6 years. In 2009, there Hurricanes Atlantic hurricane season fore- were 11 tropical systems: 2 de- Current Status cast back in May, El Niño was pressions, 6 tropical storms, and 3 hurricanes. Figure 1 shows the the main factor expected to  3 month running average suppress Atlantic hurricane ac- tracks of these systems. Contra- tivity. However, just because rily, the 2010 season (La Niña) of 0.9°C (El Niño) less activity is expected in the was much more active, with 21 NOAA’s National Weather Service Raleigh, NC 1005 Capability Drive Suite 300 Centennial Campus Raleigh, NC 27606 Phone: 919-515-8209 Fax: 919-515-8213

NWS Raleigh Tests Forecast Techniques (continued from page 3)

Forecast Experiment. During threat-specific day-one and day- periment. During this experi- this particular experiment, the two outlooks which focused spe- ment, Barrett and other visiting primary focus was to evaluate cifically on tornado, damaging forecasters worked with re- numerous new weather fore- wind, and large hail risks. search scientists to assess cast models and use the out- Also, WFO Raleigh Forecaster emerging concepts and products put to create enhanced one- Brandon Dunstan participated in hour-long “mini-outlooks” for related to hydrology, to improve an HWT experiment which in- the following 1-12 hours. the accuracy, timing, and speci- vestigated various applications to These types of detailed out- ficity of flash flood watches and improve severe storm detection looks are related to the and prediction. Products exam- warnings. Activities included “warn-on-forecast” concept, ined included the convective evaluating short-term forecast in which high-resolution mod- initiation output (which predicts tools such as improved precipita- els and other data are used to the onset of storms as their par- create longer alerts for severe tion estimates and new comput- ent clouds are first forming, using storms; these mini-outlooks er models which predict river satellite data), the lightning jump are then adjusted as new ob- behavior, including river levels algorithm (which calculates rapid servations come in. These can increases in lightning activity and flooding. Participants also be thought of as a bridge be- which may precede the onset of explored the use of experi- tween a severe weather severe weather), and a new mental watch and warning prod- watch and a severe weather “ProbSevere” model, a radar ucts which convey the uncertain- warning – on a longer time product which highlights storms scale and with less confidence ty and magnitude of the flooding that show increasing strength, to than a warning, but on a threat. improve warning forecasters’ shorter time scale and with situational awareness. greater confidence than a -Gail Hartfield Finally, WFO Raleigh Senior watch. Gail and her counter- parts also used this model Forecaster Barrett Smith partici- output to create enhanced, pated in the “HWT-Hydro” Ex-