Coffee Barometer Content 1 Introduction 3 2 Market unrest 5 2.1 Roasters 5 2.2 Traders 8 2.3 Sustainability strategies 9 3 Stress factors 10 3.1 Production and value distribution 10 3.2 Wages and labour 12 3.3 Climate change and deforestation 13 4 Sustainability commitments 16 4.1 Investments in sustainability 16 4.2 Voluntary Sustainability Standards 17 4.3 Market demand 19 4.4 Sustainable Sourcing options 21 5 Coffee sector collaboration 26 5.1 A global vision 26 5.2 Multi-Stakeholder Initiatives 27 6 Conclusion 30 Endnotes 33 Sources 34 Annex: Sustainable Sourcing 35 Colophon 36 1 Introduction Today’s coffee trends include premiumisation, convenience, customisation, single-origin, 3 and roast type. Consumers increasingly appreciate information about certified sustainable and ethically produced coffee. It is widely perceived that in the global value chain of coffee, profits are made in industrialised countries, at the expense of environmental and social problems in the coffee producing countries. Coffee is a buyers-driven supply chain, where roasters, retailers and traders maintain a high level of opacity enabling them to capture most of the gains. In sharp contrast with the margins made by farmers in developing countries, the multinational food giants and investments funds in the USA and EU expect to capitalise on growing demand in the coming decade. Billions are spent in countless acquisitions and mergers, positioning famous coffee brands in new markets. As the global coffee industry consolidates, it cuts costs to optimise profits causing additional downward pressure in the value chain, which is increasingly felt by the producers at the farm level. Trouble is brewing in the sector. A wide variety of complex and systemic issues -environmental, social and economic- jeopardises the future of coffee production. Price volatility, climate change and recurring outbreaks of pests and diseases threaten the global supply of good quality coffee, while consumption and therefore demand is expected to increase. In this new edition of the Coffee Barometer, we pinpoint some gaping holes in our collective knowledge that urgently need to be tackled. For example, coffee production has been growing by over 20% (+26 million bags) since 2010, we do not know how much forested land has been converted into farm land used for coffee production.1 Furthermore, it is assumed that 20-25 million smallholder farmers produce 70% of the coffee globally, an estimate that stands unchallenged in the last 15 years.2 The coffee harvest therefore depends on millions of farmworkers; an important but invisible group of stakeholders. They remain largely voiceless in the discussions about a sustainable coffee sector. To cope with such issues, stakeholders supporting a sustainable coffee sector have been at the forefront of shifting towards the procurement of certified and verified 4 coffee. Linking all stakeholders in the value chain with standards, training, certification, and seals of approval, the coffee sector is more advanced than any other commodity. Still, certification and verification systems appear unable to reach smallholder producers in Africa and Asia, and drive market uptake in consuming countries. Increasing demand also yields an opportunity for positive change. The growth of the specialty coffee sector leads to more direct sourcing initiatives. If executed properly, these can promote traceability and coffee quality, and provide a managed response to some sustainability challenges. Moreover, there is growing support for non-competitive sector collaboration, blending public and private investments to address fundamental sustainability challenges at an impactful scale. Such initiatives to bring about sector-wide change, like the Global Coffee Platform (GCP), the Sustainable Coffee Challenge (SCC) and national sustainability platforms, share many of the sector’s sustainability goals. However, steering collective investments in the coffee value chain towards the development and implementation of solutions to sustainability issues, remains a difficult yet pressing challenge. In this Coffee Barometer, we examine the recent boom of acquisitions and mergers, and track the main trends. We investigate the power relations embedded in the global coffee value chain, and the root cause of the main sustainability stress factors. In view of these challenges, we will examine the sector’s strategies for change, and individual and collective efforts to create a truly sustainable coffee sector. 2 Market unrest The global coffee industry is consolidating, with countless mergers and acquisitions in 5 the market. While this present an opportunity to mainstream sustainability efforts, there is little evidence that this is happening within the newly formed conglomerates. 2.1 Roasters To the casual observer, the coffee market is highly diversified. In the streets thousands of independent coffee bars exist alongside big retail chains such as Starbucks, Costa Coffee and Dunkin’ Donuts. In the supermarkets, the shelves are stacked with ample coffee options. Beyond the traditional roast and ground products, shoppers can choose from a wide range of single-serve options, next to Italian espresso beans and low profile instant coffee. Lining the refrigerated shelves of grocery stores are bottled or canned Ready to Drink Coffees (RTD), the fastest growing market segment. This wealth of choice veils the underlying structure of the global coffee industry, which is in the mature stage of its life cycle. As growth stagnates among larger players, they acquire smaller companies and diversify their portfolio to generate growth. Rapid consolidation is transforming the global coffee industry from its roast and ground leaders, like Nestlé and Jacobs Douwe Egberts, to retailers, such as Starbucks and McDonald’s. Beyond the traditional first wave roast and ground market, there is fierce competition at brand level in various market sub sectors, especially in the second and third-wave coffee (Figure 1). After years of unrivalled market leadership, Nestlé’s global dominance of the coffee market is now being challenged by JAB Holding— a German investment firm owned by the Reimann billionaire family. In the past six years, JAB Coffee (part of JAB Holdings) has been building a global coffee empire, investing over $50bn to acquire not only Figure 1: Main acquisitions and brands 2012-2018 Cacique - Pelé Graníssimo - Tropical JAB Super - Owl - Gold Coffee - Coffeeking Canadian Drs Canadian Café Seleto - Pilao - Caboclo - Cafe do Ponto Schweppes 6 Panera Bread Orangina Dr Peppper Dr Oldtown White Coffee Pret A Manger A Pret Balzac Coffee Bruegger's ABP 7Up La ■ Au Bon Pain v ■ Group Snapple Pepper Dr Panera Bread Company a Krispy Kreme Doughnuts ■ Bruegger’s Bagels z Pret A Manger A Pret ■ Balzac Coffee ■ z Keurig - Green Mountain ■ Cia Cacique COOP Carte Noire a Oldtown Berhad L'Or Supergroup Merrild ■ Coop CAFFE E. S. Proximité Tully's Coffee Café Seleto ■ Kicking Horse Coffee L'Or Diedrich Coffee Krispy Kreme Doughnuts * Lavazza Carte Noire Merrild Timothy's Coffee Alteco Keurig Green Mountain Van Houtte Kicking Horse Espresso Services Stumptown CoffeeIntelligentsia Roasters 2018 017 ew 2 ’1 4 * Intelligentsia Coffee ’1 5 ’1 Baresso Coffee 7 Chameleon Cold Br Stumptown Coffee Roasters * 6 N 1 * 0 Blue Bottle Baresso Coffee 2 Espresso House * * e ■ Espresso House Starbucks Chameleon Cold Brew Jacobs - Tassimo - Gevalia 5 ’ 1 1 Blue Bottle Coffee s 7 0 ■ Seattle's Best 2 ’ t 1 8 Kaffee Hag - Jacques Vabre l Starbucks License Agreement Mondelez Coffee 4 Torrefazione Italia 1 é 0 2 Grand Mere - Kenco ■ Einstein Brother Bagels 3 Enstein Bros Bagels 1 0 2 Friele Nespresso Friele 2 1 ’ Douwe Egberts Senseo DE Master Blenders Nescafe Moccona Dolce Gusto L'Or Taster's Choice ■ Caribou Coffee Zoega Piazzo d'Oro ■ Peet's Coffee and Tea Caribou Bonka Buondi Peet's Coffee Brasilia REST JDE Keurig Massimo Zanetti Lavazza Tchibo Nestlé U C C Smuckers Strauss Starbucks Starbucks Strauss Smuckers U C C Tchibo Nestke Massimo Zanetti Lavazza = First Wave Keurig Green Mountain ■ = Second Wave JDE * = Third Wave Top ten roasters = 35% of world’s coffee consumer coffee brands but also restaurant chains that sell large volumes of coffee. JAB Coffee is a holding company, with companies and brands managed independently by its subsidiaries. JAB’s strategy is to buy into the most relevant sections of different global markets while keeping the brands and varieties fairly separate. It has invested in pods and third-wave in the US, roast and ground in Europe, and instant coffee in Asia.3 In January 2018, the JAB-owned coffee company Keurig Green Mountain acquired the 7 softdrink company Dr. Pepper Snapple and named the merged entity Keurig Dr. Pepper. While this might seem an unusual target for a company that has been seeking deals to gain coffee market share against Nestlé, the acquisition fits in well with the strategy to transform coffee into a worthy soda alternative.4 This would make coffee an all-day consumption option. Among the firms exploring this, are some of the world’s largest soda brands: Pepsi makes Starbucks’ ready-to-drink coffees (RTD), and Coca-Cola owns Georgia, the biggest RTD coffee brand in the world. Recently, it started expanding RTD in Europe, along with announcing partnerships with Dunkin’ Donuts and McDonald’s in the US.3 The Swiss-based food giant Nestlé has identified coffee as one of its biggest growth opportunities. It seeks to establish itself firmly in the lucrative and increasingly competitive market for coffee specialties, by diversifying in terms of format, taste and price point.5 Renowned for its global Nescafé and Nespresso brands, Nestlé surprised the coffee sector in May 2018 by joining forces with Starbucks to jointly innovate and do market launches. The $7.1bn licensee agreement between Nestlé and Starbucks includes the sale of Starbucks products through supermarkets, as well as developing Starbucks branded capsules for Nestlé’s single-serve brewers.6 This collaboration enables Nestlé to further gain market share in the US – after recent third-wave acquisitions in the US - and extend its global lead over JAB.