Analysis of 2017 State Election Results
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PARLIAMENTAR~RARY ~ WESTERN AUSTRALIA 2017 Western Australian State Election Analysis of Results Election Papers Series No. 1I2017 PARLIAMENT OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA WESTERN AUSTRALIAN STATE ELECTION 2017 ANALYSIS OF RESULTS by Antony Green for the Western Australian Parliamentary Library and Information Services Election Papers Series No. 1/2017 2017 Except to the extent of the uses permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means including information storage and retrieval systems, without the prior written consent from the Librarian, Western Australian Parliamentary Library, other than by Members of the Western Australian Parliament in the course of their official duties. The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Western Australian Parliamentary Library. Western Australian Parliamentary Library Parliament House Harvest Terrace Perth WA 6000 ISBN 9780987596994 May 2017 Related Publications • 2015 Redistribution Western Australia – Analysis of Final Electoral Boundaries by Antony Green. Election paper series 1/2015. • Western Australian State Election 2013 Analysis of Results by Antony Green. Election paper series 1/2013. • 2011 Redistribution Western Australia – Analysis of Final Electoral Boundaries by Antony Green. Election paper series 1/2011. • Western Australian State Election 2008 Analysis of Results by Antony Green. Election paper series 1/2009. • 2007 Electoral Distribution Western Australia: Analysis of Final Boundaries Election papers series 2/2007 • Western Australian State Election 2005 - Analysis of Results by Antony Green. Election papers series 2/2005. • 2003 Electoral Distribution Western Australia: Analysis of Final Boundaries Election papers series 2/2003. • Western Australian State Elections 2001 by Antony Green. Election papers series 2/2001. • Western Australian State Elections 1996 by Antony Green. Election papers series 1/2001. 2017 WESTERN AUSTRALIAN ELECTION 11 March 2017 Analysis of Results CONTENTS Page Introduction 1 Statistical Highlights 5 Legislative Assembly Summary of First Preference Votes 7 Results by District 14 By-election 2013-17 27 Summary of Two-Party Preferred Results 28 Regional Summaries 34 Summary of Preference Flows 36 Legislative Council Summary of First Preference Votes and Region Totals 44 East Metropolitan Region Detail 48 North Metropolitan Region Detail 54 South Metropolitan Region Detail 60 Agricultural Region Detail 69 Mining and Pastoral Region Detail 74 South West Region Detail 79 Party Legislative Council Results by Assembly Electorate 84 Assembly and Council Vote Comparisons 100 New and Departing Members 103 Legislative Council Casual Vacancies 2013-17 105 Summary of Redistribution 106 Symbols (est) Estimate .. Nil or rounded to zero * Sitting member + Sitting member switching chamber .... ‘Ghost’ candidate, where a party contesting the previous election did not nominate for the current election AEC Australian Electoral Commission WAEC Western Australian Electoral Commission Party Abbreviations ACP Australian Christians AJP Animal Justice Party ALP Australian Labor Party DSP Daylight Saving Party FFW Fluoride Free WA FFP Family First FLX Flux the System! GRN The Greens IND Independents JMW Julie Matheson for Western Australia LDP Liberal Democrats LIB Liberal Party MBP Micro Business Party NAT The Nationals ONP Pauline Hanson’s One Nation OTH Others SA Socialist Alliance SFF Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (Shooters and Fishers in 2013) - Unaffiliated candidates Important Dates Issue of Writs 1 February 2017 Close of Rolls 9 February 2017 Close of Nominations 10 February 2017 Lodgement of Council Ticket Votes 13 February 2017 Polling Day 11 March 2017 Close of Receipt for Postal Votes 16 March 2017 Writ Returned 20 April 2017 Final Date for Writ Return 2 May 2017 2017 Western Australian Election INTRODUCTION This paper provides a summary of the 2017 Western Australian election. It contains details of voting for all Legislative Assembly districts and Legislative Council regions, as well as relevant summary statistics for both chambers. The 2017 election was the second held following the introduction of fixed date elections and the third since the introduction of one-vote one-value electorate boundaries for the Legislative Assembly. It was conducted following a redistribution that abolished one non-metropolitan district and added an extra seat to South Metropolitan Region. Format for Legislative Assembly Results For each Legislative Assembly district, details of the first preference votes and percentages received by each candidate are provided, as well as the final count after the distribution of preferences. Where appropriate, an alternative two-party preferred count is included. The format for the results is as follows: First Count: The total of first preferences for each candidate is shown, with the candidate’s percentages calculated by dividing the first preference vote by the formal vote. Swing is calculated by subtracting the percentage vote received by the party at the 2013 election from the percentage received at the 2017 election. Where the parties contesting differ from the 2013 election, ‘ghost’ candidates (indicated by ‘...’) have been included to represent candidates not contesting the current election. All results from 2013 have been adjusted to take account of the redistribution. Final Count: Represents the two-candidate preferred count after the full distribution of preferences. Ballot papers that did not include a preference choosing between the final two candidates are included in the total for ‘Exhausted’ votes. Two-candidate preferred percentages are calculated by dividing the two-candidate preferred vote for each candidate by the total votes remaining in the count, that is the formal vote minus the exhausted votes. Two-candidate preferred swings are shown compared to the results of the 2013 election adjusted for the redistribution. Where the party composition of the final two candidates differs from the 2013 election (e.g. Kalgoorlie), ghost candidates appear and three swing figures are shown. 2-Party Preferred: This total appears in electorates that did not finish as a contest between Labor and Liberal candidates at either the 2013 or 2017 elections. It shows the alternate two-party preferred count between Labor and Liberal/National candidates, as well as change in percentage vote since the 2013 election. Two-Candidate Preferred versus Two-Party Preferred Results The final or two-candidate preferred count for an electorate is the final tally of votes after the formal distribution of preferences. It is a count conducted by the successive exclusion of the lowest polling candidates and the re-examination of their ballot papers to determine the next available preference. The two-party preferred count represents a similar distribution of preferences, but at all stages retains the final two candidates as representatives of the Labor and Liberal or National Parties. At the 2017 election, 51 of the 59 Legislative Assembly districts finished as two-candidate preferred contests between Labor and Liberal candidates, five as Labor-National contests (Albany, Central Wheatbelt, North West Central, Pilbara, Warren-Blackwood), two as National versus Liberal contest (Moore, Roe) and one as a Labor-Independent contest (Baldivis). Unlike recent elections, the WA Electoral Commission did not conduct alternative two-party preferred counts. 1 2017 Western Australian Election Estimates of Two-Party Preferred Vote For Baldivis, Moore and Roe, this publication uses estimated two-party preferred counts. The WAEC’s published preference count for the three seats has been used until the final exclusion, after which the following estimates have been used to estimate final two-party preferred count. In Baldivis, Independent Matt Whitfield has been excluded at the final exclusion and his preferences distributed 54.8% to Labor and 45.2% to Liberal. This was the preference flow on the exclusion of Independent Carol Adams in Kwinana at the 2013 election. In Moore and Roe, the Liberal candidate has been excluded at the final distribution rather than the Labor candidate, creating a Labor versus National two-party preferred count. Liberal preferences have been distributed 83.8% to National and 16.2% to Labor, the average Liberal preference flow on exclusion in the preference distributions for Albany and Warren-Blackwood. Liberal or National Candidates in Two-Party Preferred Counts In 2013 the WA Electoral Commission counted out all seats to finish as Labor versus Liberal contests. After taking account of the redistribution, this publication has used these Labor versus Liberal counts in all electorates, except for Pilbara where the actual Labor versus National preference count from 2013 has been used as the two-party preferred count. Historically the flow of National preferences to Liberal has been weaker than the reverse flow of Liberal preferences to National. This means the Labor versus Liberal counts from 2013 recorded a lower non-Labor two-party preferred count compared to what would have been produced by Labor versus National counts. This was certainly the case in Pilbara, where in 2013 the Liberal two-party percentage versus Labor was 53.8%, but the National two-party percentage versus Labor was 61.5%. This publication has used the Labor versus National count as the historical two-party preferred count in Pilbara, but the WAEC’s alternative