Local Housing Needs and Market Assessment for Branton

Huw Jones, Independent Consultant and Researcher July 2019

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Contents

1.0 Introduction and context 3 1.1 The Branton area 3 1.2 Doncaster Housing Market conditions 4 1.3 Policy context 5

2.0 Profile of the Branton area 7 2.2 Housing Profile 7 2.3 Demographic and socio-economic profile 8

3.0 Housing Market Characteristics 9 3.1 Home ownership 9 3.2 Private renting 10 3.3 Social renting 10

4.0 Potential sources of demand for housing 11 4.1 Overview 11 4.2 Demand from resident households in the Branton area 13 4.3 Demand from incoming households 13 4.4 Summary of demand 13

5.0 Potential Interventions in the Branton area 14 5.1 Housing Land Availability 14 5.2 Assessment of housing mix required to meet likely demand 14 5.4 Potential for home ownership 15 5.5 Potential for new rented housing 16

6.0 Conclusions 17

Appendix A Housing, demographic and socio-economic profiles 19 Appendix B Assessment of demand and housing mix needed to meet demand 23 Appendix C Affordability of home ownership options 26 Appendix D Huw Jones Consulting CV 28

2 1.0 Introduction and context

1.1 Introduction 1.1.1 Branton is located within the boundaries of the district of Doncaster, close to the M18 motorway and around 8 miles from the A1 (M). It is located 4.6 miles from Doncaster (a 10 to 15-minute drive), 3.3 miles from Doncaster Airport (a 10-minute drive), and 25 miles from Sheffield (a 25 to 30-minute drive.) It is also close to the Yorkshire Wildlife Park.

1.1.2 The area in which it is located is influenced by both the economic growth of Doncaster, and the economic and employment plans of the Sheffield City Region and makes the Branton area one where people can live and access employment in Sheffield and Doncaster, as well as at Doncaster Airport and local retail centres.

BRANTON

1.1.3 The village has a population of just under 1,400 people living in 610 homes. It has a range of services including a school, two convenience stores, two churches, a play area, a post office and two pubs. and provides a sustainable location for new housing development. The village also benefits from good public transport provision, including numerous bus routes providing access to the local area, including both Doncaster and Bessacarr, proximity to Doncaster train station and to the M18 and A1(M) located nearby. Also, the village is located within 2km of the main urban area of Doncaster. 1.1.4 There are a range of employment opportunities emerging in Doncaster, and at Doncaster Sheffield Airport. The airport is one of the fastest growing airports in the UK and is a major employer supporting over 1,000 jobs.

3 In 2018, the owners of the airport proposed a plan to expand Doncaster Sheffield airport with trains connecting the terminal to the East Coast Mainline, projects more than 70,000 new jobs being created and proposes the building of thousands of new homes, plus shops, a hotel and leisure complex1. Expansion of the growing commercial district at Aero Centre Yorkshire, the 1,600- acre site around DSA, has already been approved by Doncaster Council involving 600,000 square feet of office, general industry, storage and distribution space and up to 800 new jobs. 1.1.5 The aim of this HMA is to establish current housing market conditions in the area. It seeks to identify housing market changes and the prospects for housing development. It will identify likely sources of demand for housing in the area and looking at what types and mix of housing development that may be needed to meet need and demand. This report has been informed by use of the www.home.co.uk and www.rightmove.co.uk websites, NOMIS Neighbourhood Statistics and 2011 Census data, HCA statistics on housing association stock, ASHE income data and information from the Doncaster Site Allocation Plan. 1.1.6 This HNMA provides background evidence to the housing development being proposed by Bellway Homes at Doncaster road, Branton. 1.2 Doncaster Housing Market Context 1.2.1 The Doncaster SHMA Update of 2011 and the Housing Needs Assessment for 2015 provide a range of information about the nature of the housing market in Doncaster and the drivers to housing demand that may be at play. From these it emerges that: a) There is an increasing population in the Doncaster district, and an Increasing elderly population2. b) House prices in the Doncaster district are lower than in some surrounding local authority areas. However, affordability is a major issue for many households especially those with incomes at or below average salary. Average Income to Property value ratio is 5.8.3 c) There is a relatively low proportion of young households in Doncaster which may be reflective of the high house prices and lack of smaller lower value housing typical of first-time buyers or rented properties4; d) The most common reasons for households moving home were a wish for a larger property, one which is better in some way, and a wish to move to a better or more pleasant area or neighbourhood; size and location were a factor in two-thirds of moves with a wish or need for tenure change being a factor in over a quarter of moves 5. e) Households with more children seeking to move home, tend to prefer homes with a larger number of bedrooms, while couples with no children and single adults under 60 with no children tend to prefer for 2-bed and 3-bed properties 6 f) There is a significant older population many of who ‘under occupy’ their homes. Accordingly, older households may be looking to downsize or may require adaptations to their properties to enable them to stay at home into their old age. Most properties occupied by older people are in low value bands, so a shortage exists for mid and high net worth households.7

1 http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/articles/300453/doncaster-sheffield-airport-unveils-ambitious-expansion-plan 2 Doncaster Housing Needs Assessment 2015 3 Doncaster Housing Needs Assessment 2015 in Doncaster Housing Strategy 2015-2025 page 10 4 Doncaster SHMA Update 2011 5Doncaster Housing Needs Assessment 2015 page 48 6 Doncaster Housing Needs Assessment 2015 page 68 7 Doncaster SHMA Update 2011

4 1.3 Policy Context

1.3.1 Sheffield City Region Strategic Economic Plan

1.3.1.1 The City Region Strategic Economic Plan aims to use industrial expertise in new ways, to narrow the economic gap over the next 10 years through the creation of 70,000 jobs, an increase in Gross Value Added (GVA) by 10% (or £3bn) and the creation 6,000 additional businesses beyond baseline growth rates. The aim will be to change the balance of the economy towards an expanded knowledge and professional service basis with less reliance on traditional industries.

1.3.1.2 At the core of the plan is the encouragement of a stronger, larger private sector through stimulating more start-ups, helping to grow indigenous firms, and attracting in new firms. At the centre of the plan is a Growth Hub - a collective endeavour which will focus on creating ‘Growth Deals’ with those firms that will deliver high growth and exports, which will provide the greatest impact on economic growth.

1.3.1.3 The plan contains a housing development strategy co-designed and managed by the Homes and Community Agency, which aims to make best use of the national programme to tackle housing market weaknesses and create the right infrastructure that businesses need to thrive. This will be built upon the development of a long-term integrated infrastructure investment plan, providing a holistic approach to future funding.

1.3.2 Doncaster Core Strategy 1.3.2.1 Doncaster Borough Council is in the process of producing an updated Local Plan. The current Core strategy was adopted in 2012. 1.3.2.2 The Core Strategy sets a requirement of 1,230 dwellings a year between the period 2011 and 2028. 1.3.2.3 Approximately 50-64%% of this housing growth is proposed for Doncaster Main Urban Area and 21 -30%% in the six Principal Towns of Adwick, Armthorpe, Conisbrough, Thorne, Mexborough and Askern. Approximately 13% is in the Potential Growth Town of Rossington and Stainforth & Hatfield. With approximately 11% proposed to be distributed to Renewal Towns, Conservation Towns and Defined Villages. Branton is currently defined as a Larger Defined Village within the Doncaster Core Strategy. 1.3.2.4 Analysis of past housing completions suggests that the house-building rate and net increase has been slow with average net completions over the last 17 years (for comparison with the 17-year Local Plan period) of 610 per year.

1.3.3 Emerging Local Plan 1.3.3.1 The Publication Draft Doncaster Local Plan published in June 2019 identifies an emerging housing requirement of 920 homes per annum over the period 2015-2035. 1.3.3.2 The proposed distribution of new homes across Doncaster has been amended, with approximately 0% to be delivered within the Main Urban Area of Doncaster. 40% is due to be distributed to the Main Towns of Dunscroft, Dunsville, Hatfield & Stainforth; Thorne & Moorends; Conisbrough & Denaby; Mexborough; Armthorpe; Rossington; and Adwick & Woodlands. 10% will then be distributed to Service Towns and Larger Villages, which includes Auckley but not Branton, which is due to be defined as a “Defined Village”.

5 1.3.3.3 The emerging Local Plan therefore seeks to change the designation of Branton in the settlement hierarchy from a Larger Village to a Defined Village. The sustainability credentials of the Village have not changed since the adoption of the Doncaster Core Strategy. The Village benefits from a primary school, a pub, a post office and a number of local businesses. The Village (and indeed the site) are located within 2km of the Main Urban Area of Doncaster, including The McAuley Catholic High School. 2km is of course the acceptable distance identified in Manual for Streets for walking and cycling. There are also employment opportunities on the Village’s doorstep at the Yorkshire Wildlife Park. Finally, and importantly, the site is located within 3km of Doncaster Airport and the number of employment opportunities the facility and supporting businesses supply to the area. The Village has therefore become more sustainable as a location for housing development since the adoption of the Doncaster Core Strategy. 1.3.3.4 Indeed, the purpose of this report is to assess whether new housing allocations should be proposed in the Village in order to respond to identified and evidenced housing needs. This, along with the Village’s sustainability credentials, would then provide a robust argument for the identification of housing allocations being identified in the Village. 1.3.3.5 The Council through its emerging plan will be seeking to ensure that new housing developments will be required to include a mix of house size, type, price and tenure to address identified needs and market demand, to support mixed communities8 and to cater for existing and future demand generated by moving households and any additional households coming to the borough as a result of the additional jobs envisioned future years. 9 1.3.3.6 Affordable Housing Need (AHN) has been set in the emerging plan at 255 new affordable homes per year over 10 years, with 46% to be 2-bed, 26% to be 3-bed and 25% to be 1-bed. Provision should normally be delivered on-site with the proportion, type and tenure split reflecting the latest Strategic Housing Market Assessment except where a developer can justify an alternative scheme in the interests of viability. Commuted sums will be considered where this would assist the viability of a development and deliver more affordable homes (including the re-use of empty houses as affordable homes) than on-site provision.

8Doncaster Core Strategy 2012: Policy CS12: Housing Mix and Affordable Housing 9 Doncaster Housing Needs Assessment 2015, page 110

6 2.0 Profile of the Branton area

2.1 Introduction This section describes the housing stock in the Branton area, the characteristics of people living in the area, and the nature of the local housing market. 2.2 Housing Profile 2.2.1 There are 1,367 people living in Branton in 610 homes. Branton is situated in Finningley ward which contains 15,209 people living in 6,190 homes. 2.2.2 88% of households in Branton are homeowners compared to 82% of households in the surrounding ward and 66% of households across the Doncaster district (See Table 1 in Appendix A) Correspondingly, the proportion of social housing tenants and private tenants is significantly lower than the district average. 2.2.3 94.8% of homes are detached or semi-detached, higher than in the surrounding ward (86.0%) and significantly higher than the district average (68.4%). Correspondingly, there is a significantly lower proportion of terraced houses and flats compared to the surrounding ward and the district average. (See Table 2 in Appendix A) 2.2.4 Just over 23% of homes have up to 2-bedrooms compared to 23% in the surrounding ward and 31% across the Doncaster district. 53% of homes have 3-bedrooms, slightly lower than the district average but higher than in the surrounding ward (45%). 23% have 4 or more bedrooms compared to 32% in the surrounding ward and 14% across the Doncaster district. This implies both a likely need for access to smaller (and affordable) housing from starter households, and a likely demand from households wanting to move within the area into larger homes 2.2.5 Approximately 88% of households are living in housing with more bedrooms than they need as measured by the 2011 Census, indicating a potential demand from older households seeking to move to smaller homes. (See Table 3 in Appendix A)

2.3 Demography and socio-economic profile 2.3.1 The proportion of people aged between 16 to 25, (8%) is lower than the average for Doncaster district (11%) and the proportion of people of ‘family building age 25 – 44 is also lower (16.5% compared to the Doncaster average of 26%). The proportions of households with children (33%) is also lower than and the district average (40%). The proportion of people are aged over 65 however, (27.2%) is substantially higher than the average for the district (17%) while the proportion of couples aged over 65 (17%) is almost twice the district average (9%) (See Table 4 in Appendix A) This indicates that there is a potential need for new housing to meet demand from young starter households and from young potential family building households, along with demand from mature families who may be seeking to move to larger homes, and from older households who may want to downsize.

7 2.3.2 Overall, 41% of people are in full-time work, similar to the district average (42%) and those in work tend to be better paid than the average for the district, with a higher proportion in professional or managerial occupations (41%, compared to 31% city wide); a slightly lower proportion of people in intermediate occupations (40.4% compared to 44.5%) and a lower proportion in routine occupations (19% compared to 26% district wide), while the proportion unemployed is a third of the district average. There is also a higher proportion of people who are retired (25%) compared to the district average (15%). (See Table 5 in Appendix A) This could indicate both a healthy potential demand for housing from people earning above average incomes who could afford to buy higher priced housing for sale, and between bottom quartile and average income levels, who could afford lower or mid-priced housing for sale, or take up intermediate housing options (shared ownership, starter homes, housing at affordable rent).

2.4 Summary There is currently a preponderance of older households living in larger homes that are owner occupied. Due to the size and type of property on offer in the village, and the lack of availability of larger housing in particular, many existing properties may unaffordable to those wanting or needing to move into them. In order to better match supply and demand for housing, and to achieve a housing mix capable of maintaining a sustainable community in the future, there is likely to be a need for a range of new housing options to meet the needs and aspirations of younger households, young families and ‘growing’ families.

8 3.0 Housing Market Characteristics

3.1 Home Ownership market

3.1.1 The level of home ownership is substantially higher than the district average. There is a trend of long-established owner occupation, indicating that there is likely to be a continuing healthy demand for home ownership.

3.1.2 Property prices and trends

3.1.2.1 The average house price in Branton is currently £163,626, 18.4% above the district average, and the gap between local prices and prices across the district appears to be widening. An average entry level home (1 or 2 bedroom) is £106,272, just over £18,700 or 21.4% higher than the district average. Average prices are currently 17% higher than in 2009 and entry level prices are 9% higher than in 2009, contrary to the district-wide trend. (See Table 6b in Appendix A).

3.1.2.2 Average prices and entry level prices higher as a proportion of the district average than they were in 2009. Currently, average prices are now 118% of the district average, while entry level prices are 121% of district-wide entry level prices. (See Table 6a in Appendix A)

3.1.2.3 Prices of detached homes in Branton have increased by 24% since 2009 (similar to the increase across the district) while prices of semi-detached homes increased by at a higher rate (13%) than across the district (4%). The price of terraced homes also increased in Branton by 4% compared to a reduction of 3% across the district. (See Table 6c in Appendix A) This indicates that detached, semi-detached and terraced homes are in short supply and are sought after. 3.1.2.4 Prices of 4-bedroom homes in the Branton area increased by 15% since 2009 (compared to 18% across the district) and the prices of 3-bedroom homes increased by 5% (compared to 4% across the district). Prices of 2 bed homes increased at a lower rate (2%) than for larger properties although across the district prices reduced by 5%. Prices of 1 bed homes reduced by 1% (compared to 15% across the district). This suggests that there may be a shortage of homes with 2,3 and 4 bedrooms relative to demand. (See Table 6c in Appendix A)

3.1.2.5 While prices in the area are higher than the district average and some other neighbouring areas (Doncaster Town Centre and Mexborough) but are lower than in nearby Bawtry, Finningley, Bessacer, Rossington, and marginally lower than in nearby, Armthorpe and Edlington. (See Table 7 in Appendix A). This suggests that Branton is likely to be a sought-after location for new housing at levels affordable to higher earners as well as households with modest incomes and would be more accessible than other surrounding higher priced areas.

3.1.3 Affordability of house prices

3.1.3.1 Entry level prices in Branton are affordable to households with an income of around £33,200 which equates to 0.9 of an average household income, 1.7 bottom quartile household incomes, or 1.95 bottom 20% incomes (See Table 8a in Appendix A). In effect, affordable to those on average incomes and affordable to households with lower incomes provided the household has, and maintains, more than one income, which is becoming an increasing challenge given employment becoming increasingly less secure.

9 However, the housing mix in the village is not conducive to assisting first time buyers and households on low incomers to access the housing they need, the need is becoming greater for enhanced affordable housing options for those on modest incomes.

3.1.3.2 However, the ability of first-time buyers to enter the market is becoming dependent on their ability to find a sizeable deposit. To secure a mortgage for an entry level home (1 or 2 bedrooms), first- time buyers would need to save a 10% deposit of £11,250 , which would (on the assumption of households saving 10% of their income each year) take 7.9 years for a household on a bottom 20% income to save; 6.9 years for a household with a bottom quartile income, and 3.8 years for a household on an average income.

3.2 The Private Rental Market

3.2.1 Around 5% of properties in the Branton area are privately rented, mainly in family sized homes through the buy to let market 3.2.2 Market rents are considerably higher than for the district as a whole, and for most surrounding areas except for Bawtry (See Table 9a in Appendix A) 3.2.3 A household income of just over £18,500 would be needed to afford rents for entry level properties, somewhere between a bottom 20% and bottom quartile household income, and again, affordability would depend on the household having and maintaining two incomes. Market rents for larger properties would require a single income of between £27,000 and £33,400 or a household income of between £24,000 and £30,500 or 2 to 2.6 bottom quartile single incomes. This may be out of reach for many but may be affordable to households with more than one income at bottom quartile levels. Households on very low incomes in work may have significant difficulties in affording market rents. This may be particularly so if the ability to meet housing costs through housing benefit is accounted for. (See Table 9b in Appendix A)

3.2.4 In addition, market rents in the Branton area are higher than Local Housing Allowance rates meaning that households either fully or partially reliant on housing benefit would have to meet the difference from their benefit or earned income. (See Table 9cin Appendix A)

3.2.5 This indicates that rent levels and a restricted supply of market rented housing is acting to limit access to rented housing for households needing to live in the area who are unable to afford market prices.

3.3 Affordable rented housing supply and demand 3.3.1 Data in Appendix A indicates that there are 34 social rented homes in Branton, which accommodate 5.6% of households. 3.3.2 This assessment has been unable to draw upon localised data relating to demand for social housing in the Branton area. However, data identified in the SHMA for Doncaster shows that there are 7,348 households on the housing waiting list (HWL)for social housing in Doncaster. Of those, 1,318 are in priority housing need (44 from Platinum band; 355 from Gold band; and 919 from Silver band) and a further 6,030 have a need for affordable housing, mostly through being unable to afford market options, but no priority social, medical or housing support need).

10 3.3.3 This compares to approximately 1,800 social rented homes becoming available for letting each year. 10 There is not enough council housing in Doncaster to accommodate everyone on the Council housing waiting list. Although steps are being made to increase the number of available council houses through a new house build programme, an empty property purchase scheme and a private sector management scheme, the Private Rented Sector is the only choice available to many, although it is the most expensive choice11. 3.3.4 The restricted availability of stock in Branton, coupled with of the likelihood that many residents will be long-term and older tenants who may be unlikely to move, and the persistently high demand for social housing in all parts of the district, indicates a pressure on the social housing stock and limited opportunities for rehousing. This in turn, would indicate a need for additional social housing supply across the Doncaster district to meet demand and need.

3.5 Summary Analysis of housing market characteristics in Branton and its surrounding area show that there is an clearly a need for new housing options that can provide affordable means of meeting the housing requirements of new households and families on moderate incomes. The identifiable affordable housing need in the village cannot be met from the existing private market, or within the rental housing stock within the village. It is highly likely that the need for affordable housing in the village can only be realistically and viably delivered through appropriately priced market housing and the affordable housing provisions contained with newly provided market housing. This strongly indicates a need to allocate a housing site in the village to improve the sustainability of the housing mix in the village, and especially to provide additional affordable housing options.

10 Doncaster Housing Needs Assessment 2015 pages 87 - 88 11 Doncaster Housing Needs Assessment 2015 page 56

11 4.0 Potential sources of demand for housing

4.1 Overview 4.1.1 The proportion of people in Branton who are in full-time work or self- employment in professional, managerial or intermediate and skilled trades occupations indicates a potential demand for from households seeking to move from social housing and private rented housing in the area into home ownership, and from existing owners seeking to trade up from their first home, or move subsequently to larger homes. There is also likely to be demand for housing in the area from households from outside of Doncaster moving with work, households seeking to live in the area and commute to Leeds and Sheffield, or households moving from other parts of Doncaster seeking new housing options. 4.1.2 Just over half of households, either have children or may have children in the future, and just under a fifth are of ‘family building’ age, which indicates future demand for family-sized housing, either through new building or through releasing existing family sized housing currently under-occupied. 4.1.3 Just under a quarter of people and just under 30% of households living in the area are over 65, mainly home-owners, and almost 90% of households are living in homes with more bedrooms than their strictly need. Therefore, it is likely that there will be a demand from older homeowners seeking to downsize from housing that may be too large for their needs, or that contains equity that they can use to supplement pension income. Demand from older people may be best met by a ‘lifetime homes’ model offering 2 or 3-bedroom properties to accommodate family visits, potential child-care for working grown up children, and a carer where required. 4.1.4 There are significant issues of affordability for households with modest or low incomes needing to live in the area either because of access to work (the two villages are very close to Doncaster Sheffield Airport) or a need to maintain family support. Prices in the Branton area are considerable higher than the average for Doncaster which exacerbates the difficulties facing first time buyers in saving the levels of deposit needed to secure a mortgage. Due to the size and type of property on offer in the village, and the lack of availability of larger housing in particular, many existing properties may unaffordable to those wanting or needing to move into them. 4.1.5 In order to better match supply and demand for housing, and to achieve a housing mix capable of maintaining a sustainable community in the future, there is likely to be a need for a range of new housing options to enable starter households living in the village to remain there, and to meet the needs and aspirations of ‘growing’ families and ‘mature families, all assisting in assuring future sustainability. 4.1.6 There is very high demand for social rented housing across the Doncaster district, and in all likelihood, from within the village itself. This implies a clear need for additional affordable rented housing in the area, to rent and to purchase at prices affordable to those on below average incomes.

12 4.1.7 Additional supply of larger properties with 4 bedrooms or more may be needed to reduce the gap between supply and demand for larger homes in the area (See section 3.1.2.4) and meet identified housing, and cater for existing and future demand generated by moving households and any additional households coming to the borough as a result of the additional jobs envisioned future years. 12

4.2 Demand from existing resident households in the Branton area 4.2.1 Analysis based on the 2011 Census and local housing market intelligence indicates that up to 133 existing residents of Branton may express a demand or a need for a new home in the area over the next 15 years. It is estimated that just under 20% of those may be existing tenants seeking to buy their first home, some of whom will be living in family-sized homes already, and would be seeking a home of comparable, or larger size to meet their requirements. It is estimated that just over 80% will be existing homeowners seeking to move to a larger home, or older homeowners seeking to ‘downsize’, a large proportion of whom would probably require an additional bedroom to accommodate family visitors or carers where required. 4.2.2 It is likely that households already living in the area who may have a future demand for moving to a new home, will require a mixture of homes with 2 bedrooms (for first-time buyers) 3 bedrooms (for families and younger homeowners wanting a larger home) and homes with 4 bedrooms or more, for mature families seeking a larger home and possibly work/study space.

4.3 Demand from incoming households 4.3.1 The new jobs likely to be generated in Doncaster over the coming years will generate a need for new housing. The Doncaster SHMA identifies a need for 920 additional dwellings per year to support household growth and economic and job growth aspirations13, or 13,800 over the next 15 years .It is estimated that there may be a potential demand from up to 67 households taking up those new jobs who may move to the Branton area from other parts of Doncaster, or from outside of Doncaster 4.3.2 It is likely that households moving to the area will require a mixture of homes with 2 bedrooms (for first-time buyers) 3 bedrooms (for families and younger homeowners wanting a larger home) and 4 bedrooms for mature families seeking a larger home and possibly work/study space.

4.4 Summary of demand The potential demand for new housing in the Branton area over the next 15 years is summarised below, and strongly indicates a level of local demand that needs to be met within the locality and which is unlikely to be able to be met elsewhere. This in turn strongly indicates a need for a new housing allocation in the village to meet existing and likely future demand and ensure the future sustainability of the village.

12 Doncaster Housing Needs Assessment 2015 page 110 13 Doncaster SHMA (page 11)

13 Table A Potential demand for new housing in the Branton area INTERNAL DEMAND First-time buyers Private tenants 13 Social tenants 9 People living rent free with other households 4 Existing homeowners 26 Second stager homeowners (20%) 32 Homeowners in their 2nd or subsequent home (50%) 43 Older homeowners (30%) 32 All 107 EXTERNAL DEMAND 1st time buyers 13 2nd Stagers 27 Mature Families 27 All External Demand 67 ALL Potential Demand 200

14 5.0 Potential Interventions in the Branton area

5.1 Housing Land Availability 5.1.1 Analysis of the emerging Draft Doncaster Local Plan shows that there are no proposed allocated housing development sites listed in Branton, which leaves a constrained ability to meet newly arising housing need and demand from within the village or from households seeking to take up housing opportunities in the area. 5.2 Assessment of housing mix required to meet likely demand 5.2.1 The estimates of potential demand for housing outlined in section 4 above indicate that over the next 15 years, there may be a need for up to 200 new homes to meet need, demand and aspiration from households living in Branton; and from households who may move to , the area from elsewhere in Doncaster, or from outside. It is estimated that 31% of newly built homes in the area should be have up to 2 bedrooms and 70% should be homes with 3 bedrooms or more, based upon analysis of census data, current housing market characteristics in the Branton area, the affordability of existing housing and new build, the likely need for additional family housing to meet likely future need, the difficulties being faced by first-time buyers and the likely preferences of older people seeking smaller housing options, . Table B Potential demand for new housing in the Branton area Internal demand External demand ALL 1 Bed 7 3.6% 0 0.0% 7 3.6% 2 Bed 43 21.4% 11 5.5% 54 26.9% 3 Bed 33 16.5% 26 13.0% 59 29.5% 4 Bed 50 25.2% 30 15.0% 80 40.2% ALL 133 66.5% 67 33.5% 200 100.0%

(Source: 2011 Census data in NOMIS 2018 and local housing market intelligence)

5.2.2 To meet demand from existing residents, it is estimated that up to 133 new homes may be required over the next 15 years, of which 50 (25% of all new homes needed) should be homes with 1 or 2 bedrooms and 83 (42% of all new homes needed) should be homes with 3 bedrooms or more. In arriving at this assessment, it has been estimated that: a) 1-bedroom properties may be attractive to 15% of first-time buyers and 10% of older people downsizing b) 2 bed homes may be required by 60% of first-time buyers, 10% of previous first- time buyers seeking to move and 70% of older people downsizing. It is likely that 2 bed houses rather than flats would better meet the potential demand from existing tenants, either living in flats or in small rented houses, seeking to become homeowners for the first-time; from younger people living with parents or independently in flats, who also want to buy for the first-time, and from older people seeking to downsize who may prefer a smaller house rather than a flat.

15 c) 3 bed homes may be required, or be attractive to 25% of first-time buyers (especially families buying for the first-time) should Help to Buy products be attached to purchase; 40% of previous first-time buyers seeking to move (2nd Stagers) potentially releasing 2-bedroom homes for purchase by first-time buyers.); 20% of existing homeowners in their second or subsequent homes wanting to trade up, and 15% of older people seeking to move to smaller housing but with a need for sufficient space to accommodate caring for grandchildren, visits from relatives, home working and potentially a live-in carer. d) Homes with 4 bedrooms or more may be required, or wanted by, 50% of previous first-time buyers seeking to move (2nd Stagers), and 80% of existing homeowners in their second or subsequent homes wanting to trade up.

5.2.3 To meet demand from potential incoming residents, it is estimated that 67 new homes may be required in the Branton area over the next 15 years, of which 11 should be homes with 1 or 2 bedrooms (5.5% of all new homes needed), and 56 (28% of all new homes needed) should be housing with 3 bedrooms or more. In arriving at this assessment, it has been estimated that: • 60% of first-time buyers moving to Doncaster and 10% of previous first-time buyers seeking a larger home moving to Doncaster would want or need homes with up to 2 bedrooms • 40% of first-time buyers, 60% of previous first-time buyers seeking a larger home and 20% of mature incoming families moving to Doncaster would want or need 3 bedroomed homes • 30% of previous first-time buyers (2nd stagers) seeking a larger home, and 80% of mature incoming families moving to Doncaster would want or need homes with 4 bedrooms or more. 5.3 Potential for home ownership 5.3.1 There is clearly a potential for new housing for home ownership aimed at a mixture of ‘starter households’, young families and families with older or non-dependent children, seeking larger housing and older households seeking to ‘downsize’. 5.3.2 For first-time buyers, there may be limitations on their ability to purchase new build housing. Data in Appendix A and Appendix C shows that a) Newly built 1 bed homes may be out of reach of single people earning with below average incomes and may only just affordable to a single person with an average income if priced at £100,000 or less. b) 2-bedroom homes may be unaffordable to a household or an individual with a single average income, and again may only just be affordable to households with an average household income band where priced at £150,000 or under. c) New 2-bedroom properties are likely to be less affordable than existing 2-bedroom housing. Prices of new built properties are considerably higher than ‘second hand’ homes (see section 3) and prices of 2-bedroom homes are over 40% higher. Consequently, the deposits required to secure a mortgage, and the mortgage payments required will also be higher. 5.3.3 Meeting the demand from first-time buyers for 2-bedroom housing may better be achieved by building new homes with 3 bedrooms and aimed at existing owners of 2-bedroom homes seeking a larger home, thus releasing 2-nedroom properties onto the market for starter households to buy at more affordable prices.

16 5.3.4 Help to Buy Shared Ownership could also provide options at the ‘bottom end’ of the market and could be aimed at first-time buyers on below average incomes. Appendix C shows that for a couple with two average incomes a 75% stake in any property priced up to £200,000, and a 50% stake in any property priced at up to £300,000, would be affordable. For a couple on one average and one bottom quartile income, a 75% stake in a property priced at up to £150,000, or a 50% stake in a property priced at up to £200,000 to £250,000 would be affordable. For a single person on an average income or a couple with one average income, only a 75% stake in a property priced at up to £100,000 could be afforded.

5.4 Potential for new rented housing 5.4.1 There is evidence that across the district there is a growing demand for rented housing from young working households. The proportion of households renting privately has increased over the last 10 years and looks likely to grow further. There is a potential for a limited supply of new build housing for rent aimed at ‘around average’ earners including those relocating and needing to rent pending saving the deposit needed for purchase. 5.4.2 Data in Appendix C indicates that new housing for market rent could be targeted partly at households with one or two average incomes at rents of up to £850 per month (to allow ability to save for a deposit on house purchase), and partly at rents of between £600 and £750 per month aimed at households with one average and one bottom quartile income or two bottom quartile incomes. 5.4.3 Given the proportion of households in lower paid employment resident in the area, and the likelihood of a proportion of new jobs created at Doncaster Sheffield Airport being at lower level of pay, new rented housing at social rents would be in great demand and would help meet an increasingly unmet need. 5.4.4 This presents very strong evidence for new housing allocations to be identified in the village in the emerging Local Plan. Without additional new housing options in the village, there could be severe implications for the future sustainability of the village. There will be difficulties in attracting new households, especially actual or potential families, to the village and enabling them to remain in the village rather than have to move elsewhere to meet their housing needs, requirements and aspirations. This in turn could threaten the viability of local facilities and amenities. There could also be difficulties in enabling older households needing to move to smaller properties in the village to do so, running the risk of further ‘silting up’ the housing chain in the area and frustrating necessary movement within the village.

17 6.0 Conclusions

6.1 There is need for growth in the supply of housing across Doncaster to meet household changes and to support economic and employment growth. The Council is currently planning for 920 new homes per year 2015-2035. However, when this target is compared to the average of 610 net completions over the last 17 years, this shows a shortfall of some 300 new homes per year. Accordingly, there would appear to be a need to maximise opportunities for new housing developments in all parts of the district, if the target for new housing is to be met.6.2

6.2 There is a justifiable need for new housing in the Branton area where there is a range of services (similar to those in currently defined ‘Larger Villages’) which would appear to make it a sustainable location for new housing development. There is a school, two convenience stores, two churches, a play area, a post office and two pubs. Branton also benefits from good public transport provision, including numerous bus routes providing access to the local area, including both Doncaster and Bessacarr, proximity to Doncaster train station and access to the M18 and A1(M) located nearby. The villages are located within 2km of the main urban area of Doncaster and is located within 3km of Doncaster Airport. The airport is the subject of significant development plans which would substantially increase the number and range of employment opportunities

6.3 The range of housing in Branton Is currently limited and there is a preponderance of larger properties inhabited by an aging population. The current housing stock in the village is unlikely to be able to meet the demand for smaller homes arising from the requirements of starter households and downsizing older households, while the stock of larger housing with 3 bedrooms or more may not be enough to meet needs and aspirations as family housing needs change over time. This brings into question the future sustainability of the village.

6.4 There are, however, no proposed allocated housing development sites listed in Branton, which leaves a highly constrained ability to meet newly arising housing need and demand either from within the village, or from households seeking to take up housing opportunities in the area.

6.5 Based on current housing mix, demographic characteristics and housing market conditions and likely future trends, there is likely to be a need over a 15-year period for:

a) up to 133 new 2,3 and 4+ bedroom homes to meet the needs of existing residents as their needs and aspirations change.

b) up to 67 new 2,3 and 4+ bedroom homes to meet a potential demand from households seeking to move into the area from other parts of Doncaster, or from outside the district. The area is well located for people working at Doncaster Sheffield Airport and for households who may wish to live in the area and commute to Doncaster or Sheffield for work.

6.6 Overall, it is estimated that up to 30% of new homes developed should have up to 2 bedrooms and should be aimed at ‘starter households (including first-time buyers) and older homeowners seeking to move to smaller housing,

6.7 Up to 30% of new homes should have 3 bedrooms to meet a range of housing need and demand in the area including smaller households. There is likely to be pent up demand, either now or in the future, for larger properties from ‘second stagers’ (households with existing properties seeking to buy a larger home) and families with older children seeking a larger home.

18 Building new homes with 3 bedrooms aimed at existing owners of 2-bedroom homes seeking a larger home would release 2-bedroom properties onto the market for starter households to buy at more affordable prices. In addition, smaller 3-bedroom homes may could better meet the needs and requirements of smaller starter households or older people downsizing by providing a smaller bedroom for potential use as a study, a ‘nursery’ or bedroom for a small child, or for visiting grandchildren, in addition to 2 ‘full size’ bedrooms.

6.8 Up to 40% should have 4 bedrooms or more to provide opportunities for existing homeowners seeking to trade up to meet their needs and aspirations within the area itself rather than having to move elsewhere and would provide for demand from incoming families with existing equity from previous homes. The above average increase in prices of homes with 4 bedrooms or more suggests that supply is insufficient to meet demand for larger family homes in the area.

6.9 There is clearly a need for additional affordable housing options in the area given the limited supply of affordable rented housing locally.

a) Despite house prices in Doncaster as a whole being lower than in some surrounding local authority areas, prices in the area containing Branton are higher than the average for Doncaster, bringing issues of affordability for households with modest or low incomes needing to live in the area either because of access to work (the two villages are very close to Doncaster Sheffield Airport) or a need to maintain family support.

b) It is important that new housing for sale is affordable and accessible to a range of workers given the income distribution and employment patterns in the area, and the data above would suggest that new housing for sale at full market price should be at prices up to £200,000. Shared ownership might offer an option for lower income households to access home ownership. Help to Buy support attached to new build homes would ease access to home ownership in the area, although it may result in increased demand for larger homes.

c) Given the pressure on existing social housing stock, there is a need for new social housing to add to the capacity of existing stock to meet need. In addition, consideration should be given to intermediate housing options to meet need and demand, especially from households on low and very low incomes in work who may not have a priority need for social housing. There is a potential for encouraging partnerships between developers, funders and housing associations, (including co-housing organisations) to provide the rented housing needed.

d) New affordable housing provisions should be in line with current Doncaster policy requiring between 15% and 23% of new homes to be affordable.

6.10 There is very strong evidence for new housing allocations to be identified in the village in the emerging Local Plan that can provide additional affordable housing options in the village and create a housing mix capable of sustaining the viability and vibrancy of the village into the future. Without additional new housing options in the village, it will be extremely difficult to attract new households, especially actual or potential families, to the village and remain in the village rather than have to move elsewhere to meet their housing needs, requirements and aspirations. There could also be difficulties in enabling older households needing to move to smaller properties in the village to do so, running the risk of further ‘silting up’ the housing chain in the area and frustrating necessary movement within the village. This in turn could threaten the viability of local facilities and amenities.

19 Appendix A Housing, demographic and socio-economic profiles

Table 1 Housing Tenure

Tenure Branton Finningley ward Doncaster All Households 610 6,190 126,487 Owner Occupation * 537 88.0% 5,088 82.2% 83,178 65.8% Private Rented 32 5.2% 605 9.8% 18,774 14.8% Social Rented 34 5.6% 435 7.0% 22403 17.7% Rented from Council 31 5.1% 307 5.0% 19,173 15.2% Rented from Housing Association 3 0.5% 128 2.1% 3,230 2.6% Living rent free 7 1.1% 62 1.0% 2,132 1.7% • Including shared ownership

(Source: 2011 Census ONS Neighbourhood Statistics 2018)

Table 2 Size and Type of housing

Branton Finningley ward Doncaster

Detached 369 60.5% 3,835 62.0% 29,400 23.2% Semi-detached 209 34.3% 1,486 24.0% 57,178 45.2% Terraced 17 2.8% 660 10.7% 29,456 23.3% Flats, Caravans, Shared 15 2.5% 209 3.4% 10,453 8.3% ALL 610 100% 6,190 100% 126,487 100% Up to 1 bed 16 2.6% 160 2.6% 9,091 7.2% 2 bed 127 20.8% 1,239 20.0% 30,346 24.0% 3 bed 326 53.4% 2,793 45.1% 69,266 54.8% 4 + bed 141 23.1% 1,998 32.3% 17,784 14.1% ALL 610 100% 6,190 100% 126,487 100% (Source: 2011 Census ONS Neighbourhood Statistics 2018)

Table 3 Levels of under-occupation and overcrowding

Branton Finningley ward Doncaster

Over 2 bedrooms 332 54.4% 3,245 52.4% 47,959 37.9% 1 - 2 bedrooms 207 33.9% 2,051 33.1% 47,127 37.3% All Under occupied 539 88.4% 5,296 85.6% 95,086 75.2% Neutral 65 10.7% 781 12.6% 27,337 21.6% Overcrowded 1 bedroom 6 1.0% 104 1.7% 3,520 2.8% Overcrowded 2 bedrooms 0 0.0% 9 0.1% 544 0.4% All Overcrowded 6 1.0% 113 1.8% 4,064 3.2% ALL 610 100% 6,190 100% 126,487 100%

(Source: 2011 Census ONS Neighbourhood Statistics 2018)

20 Table 4 Age and household type

2011 Census Indicator Branton Finningley Ward Doncaster MD

Age Under 16 14.6% 17.9% 19.0% % aged 16 - 25 7.8% 10.3% 11.4% % aged 25 - 44 16.5% 21.6% 26.0% % aged 45 - 65 33.9% 31.3% 26.7% % aged 65 - 85 24.0% 16.8% 14.8% Over 85 3.2% 2.2% 2.1% Average Age 45 42 40 Household Type Families with children 26.4% 32.3% 29.2% Lone Parents 6.6% 8.7% 11.0% Couples under 65 without children 22.0% 23.8% 20.4% Single people under 65 11.3% 11.6% 17.6% Couples over 65 without children 17.0% 12.1% 9.0% Single People over 65 16.7% 11.4% 12.8%

Table 5 Employment status and occupation

Branton Finningley Ward Doncaster MD 2011 Census Indicator

Employment Full time employed/Self employed 41.4% 46.9% 41.9% Part time employed/Self employed 19.7% 18.2% 17.1% Unemployed 2.2% 3.2% 5.7% Retired 25.4% 19.0% 15.4% Occupation Professional/Managerial occupations 40.7% 44.1% 30.6% Intermediate occupations 40.4% 40.3% 44.5% Process, Plant, machine, routine occupations 19.0% 15.4% 26.4% Education/Qualifications No qualifications 15.5% 18.7% 30.3%

21 Table 6a House price changes 2009- 2019 Date Branton Doncaster Average Date Branton Doncaster Entry level area MD prices as a area MD prices as a % % of city of city average average May-09 £139,995 £136,725 102.4% May-09 £97,475 £90,977 107.1% May-11 £139,950 £134,160 104.3% May-11 £99,507 £83,086 119.8% May-13 £134,950 £129,313 104.4% May-13 £102,625 £70,681 145.2% May-15 £149,950 £138,226 108.5% May-15 £102,450 £90,949 112.6% May-17 £155,526 £141,035 110.3% May-17 £101,906 £83,414 122.2% May-19 £163,626 £138,226 118.4% May-19 £106,272 £87,528 121.4% (Source: www.rightmove.co.uk 2018; www.home.co.uk 2018)

Table 6b Trends and differences in house prices 2009 - 2019 Year Average Prices Difference ‘Entry Level ‘Prices Difference Branton Doncaster Branton Doncaster area MD area MD May-09 £139,995 £136,725 £3,270 2.4% £97,475 £90,977 £6,498 7.1% May-19 £163,626 £138,226 £25,400 18.4% £106,272 £87,528 £18,744 21.4% Change 16.9% 1.1% 9.0% -3.8% (Source: www.home.co.uk 2018) Table 6c Changes in price for property type and size of housing 2009 - 2019 Branton area Doncaster Change 2009 - Branton area Doncaster Change 2009 - 2019 MD 2019 MD Detached 24% 25% 4 Bed 15% 18% Semi Detached 13% 4% 3 Bed 5% 4% Terraced 4% -3% 2 Bed 2% -5% Flat -11% -25% 1 Bed - 1% -15% ALL 7% 2% ALL 7% 2% (Source: www.rightmove.co.uk; www.home.co.uk 2018)

Table 7 House prices in the Branton area compared to adjoining areas Surrounding communities 1 bed flat 2 bed Entry Level 3 bed 4+ bed All house or house or house or flat flat flat Bawtry £164,999 £176,607 £170,803 £228,774 £449,933 £255,078 Finningley £83,500 £177,247 £130,374 £236,889 £373,920 £217,889 Bessacer £88,750 £105,940 £97,345 £147,411 £334,926 £202,391 Rossington £76,475 £116,003 £96,239 £168,904 £409,153 £192,643 Loversall/Edlington £77,500 £93,428 £85,464 £117,416 £282,326 £170,599 Armthorpe, Edenthorpe, Kirksandal £80,000 £109,972 £94,986 £167,475 £297,475 £163,731 Branton £80,000 £145,000 £106,272 £207,299 £336,250 £163,626 DONCASTER DISTRICT AVERAGE £80,275 £98,232 £89,254 £139,788 £288,420 £155,579 Doncaster Town Centre £89,928 £87,419 £88,674 £176,106 £180,979 £141,115

Conisborough/Mexborough £72,375 £81,875 £77,125 £123,611 £248,370 £127,088 (Source: www.rightmove.co.uk 2016)

22 Table 8a Income needed to afford house prices

1 bed 2 bed Entry 3 bed 4+ bed Average Price All flat houses Level houses house Single income needed to afford £22,857 £41,429 £30,363 £59,228 £96,071 £46,750 Joint income needed to afford £25,000 £45,313 £33,210 £64,781 £105,078 £51,133 (Source: ASHE Income survey 2075; www.rightmove.co.uk 2018)

Table 8b Years needed to accumulate a 15% deposit for purchase of an entry level home

Price Deposit No of years to save a 10% deposit Bottom 20% Bottom 25% Average income income income Branton £11,250 7.9 6.9 3.8 Doncaster £8,924 6.3 5.5 3.0 (Source: ASHE Income survey 2075; www.rightmove.co.uk 2018)

Table 9a Monthly Market Rents compared to adjoining areas

Entry Surrounding communities (Market Rent) 1 bed 2 bed 3 bed 4+ bed All Level Bawtry £525 £592 £559 £707 £949 £634 Branton £465 £530 £498 £645 £819 £574 Finningley £416 £515 £466 £706 £899 £559 Loversall/Edlington £391 £456 £424 £599 £613 £558 Bessacar £643 £546 £595 £638 £650 £555 Doncaster Town Centre £456 £498 £477 £655 £729 £541 DONCASTER DISTRICT AVERAGE £433 £498 £466 £589 £796 £524 Rossington £420 £453 £437 £601 £622 £519 (Source: www.rightmove.co.uk 2018)

Table 9b Income needed to afford market rents Branton area 1 Bed 2 Bed Entry Level 3 Bed 4+ Bed ALL Market Rents Joint Income £17,298 £19,716 £18,507 £23,994 £30,467 £21,353 Single Income £19,530 £22,260 £20,895 £27,090 £34,398 £24,108 Affordable Rents Joint Income £12,946 £14,755 £13,850 £17,957 £22,801 £15,980 Single Income £15,624 £17,808 £16,716 £21,672 £27,518 £19,286 (Source: ASHE Income survey 2015; www.rightmove.co.uk 2018)

Table 9c Difference between market rents and Local Housing Allowance rates Market Rent per week Local Housing Allowance Difference per week: LHA (LHA) Rent levels and Market Rents 1 bed £107 £78 -£29 2 Bed £122 £93 -£29 3 Bed £149 £104 -£45 4+ Bed £189 £144 -£45 (Source: www.rightomve.co.uk 2018; Valuation Agency Local Housing Allowance (LHA) rates applicable - April 2018 March 2019)

23 Appendix B Assessment of demand/need for new housing and housing mix required to meet need/demand

Assessment of demand/ need for new housing from existing residents

Analysis of the 2011 Census and local housing market intelligence indicates that there may be 134existing residents in the Branton area who may express a demand to buy a new home in the area over the next 15 years.

32 households rent privately. Of these, it is estimated that 40% (13) may want and be able to, buy a new home over the next 10 years. The remaining 60% will either not want to buy or earn enough to afford to buy, or may buy an existing home in the area, or may move to another rented property in the area.

34 households live in Council or housing association accommodation. Of these it is estimated 25% (9) may want and be able to, buy a new home over the next 10 years. The remaining 85% will either want to continue renting from their landlord; may want to buy but be unable to afford to purchase; may take up their Right to Buy or may buy an existing property.

7 households live rent free with other households. Of these, it is estimated that 50% (4) may want and be able to, buy a new home over the next 10 years. The remaining 50% will either want to continue living in their existing situation or may be unable to afford to purchase.

537 households own their own home, and a substantial proportion of these may be households in professional, managerial and intermediate occupations, indicating a potential demand from existing owners seeking to trade up from their first home. While it is estimated that 80% (430) will not have a need or desire to move and will want to remain in their existing home, or will move to other existing homes in the area or out of the area, 20% (107) may want to take up the opportunity to buy a new home in the area.

• 30% of existing homeowners (161) are estimated to be previous first-time buyers seeking a larger home (2nd Stagers). Of these, it is estimated that 20% (32) may want or need to move to a new larger home over the next 10 years. The remainder will either be content with their existing housing or may be unable to afford the costs of moving to a larger home or may move to another existing property in the area. • 40% of homeowners (215) are estimated to be living in their second or subsequent home. Of these, it is estimated that 20% (43) may want or need to ‘trade up’ to a larger home over the next 10 years. The remainder will either be content with their existing housing or may be unable to afford the costs of moving to a larger home or may move to another existing property in the area. • 30% of homeowners (161) are estimated to be older households. Of these it is estimated that 20% (32) may want to ‘downsize’ to a more manageable home. The remainder will either be content with their existing home or may lack confidence in being able to find a suitable property in the area or may move to another existing property in the area.

Assessment of demand/ need for new housing from incoming residents

In addition, there is likely to be demand from households moving to Doncaster or to the Branton area from other parts of Doncaster to take up new jobs created in Leeds over the next 15 years

24 Employment growth will inevitably be influenced by the investment and strategic plans of the Sheffield City Region. The Sheffield City Region is aiming to create 70,000 jobs over the next 10 years and there have been plans proposed to create substantial expansion at Doncaster Sheffield Airport with a potential for a significant new supply of jobs, a proportion of which will generate a need for new housing. The Doncaster SHMA identifies a need for 920 additional dwellings per year to support economic and job growth aspirations14, or 9,200 over the next 10 years. Assuming a proportional amount of these will be located in the area around Branton, there may be a potential demand for new housing from up to 67 households who may move to the area from other parts of Doncaster, or from outside of Doncaster.

It is likely that households moving to the city or within the city, will require a mixture of homes with 2 bedrooms (for first-time buyers) 3 bedrooms (for families and younger homeowners wanting a larger home) and 4 bedrooms for mature families seeking a larger home and possibly work/study space.

Assessment of housing mix required to meet likely demand

The estimates of potential demand for housing outlined in section 4 above indicate that over the next 15 years, there may be a need for an additional up to 200 new homes to meet need, demand and aspiration from households living in the Branton area, or who may move to the area from elsewhere in Doncaster or outside, and who may need or want new housing in the area. The estimates suggest that 30% of these should be homes with 1 or 2 bedrooms and 70% should be homes with 3 bedrooms or more. Housing mix needed to meet demand from existing residents, To meet demand from existing residents, it is estimated that 133 new homes may be required over the next 15 years, of which 50 (25% of all new homes needed) should be homes with 1 or 2 bedrooms and 83 (42% of all new homes needed) should be homes with 3 bedrooms or more. In arriving at this assessment, it has been estimated that: a) 1-bedroom properties may be attractive to 15% of first-time buyers and 10% of older people downsizing b) 2 bed homes may be required by 60% of first-time buyers, 10% of previous first- time buyers seeking to move and 70% of older people downsizing. The higher costs of new build homes along with difficulties facing young first-time buyers in raising the required deposit to secure a mortgage, may mean that buying existing 2-bedroom housing may offer a more affordable and realistic option than purchasing a new build home. In terms of providing smaller housing units for sale aimed at older households seeking to downsize, while bungalows can be popular with older people, they are expensive to develop in terms of the land consumed, and smaller houses on a ‘lifetime homes’ model can meet needs equally well It is likely that 2 bed houses rather than flats would better meet the potential demand from existing tenants, either living in flats or in small rented houses, seeking to become homeowners for the first-time; from younger people living with parents or independently in flats, who also want to buy for the first- time, and from older people seeking to downsize who may prefer a smaller house rather than a flat. c) 3 bed homes may be required by attractive to 25% of first-time buyers (especially families buying for the first-time) should Help to Buy products be attached to purchase; 40% of previous first-time buyers seeking to move (2nd Stagers) potentially releasing 2-bedroom homes for purchase by first-time buyers.), 20% of existing homeowners in their second or subsequent homes wanting to trade up, and 15% of older people seeking to move to smaller housing but with a need for sufficient space to accommodate caring for grandchildren, visits from relatives, home working and potentially a live-in carer.

14 Doncaster SHMA (page 11)

25 d) 4 bed homes may be required by 50% of previous first-time buyers seeking to move (2nd Stagers), and 80% of existing homeowners in their second or subsequent homes wanting to trade up, would want or need housing with 4 bedrooms or more.

To meet demand from potential incoming residents, it is estimated that 67 new homes may be required in the Branton area over the next 15 years, of which 11 should be homes with 1 or 2 bedrooms (5.5% of all new homes needed), and 56 (28% of all new homes needed) should be housing with 3 bedrooms or more. In arriving at this assessment, it has been estimated that: a) 60% of first-time buyers moving to Doncaster and 10% of previous first-time buyers seeking a larger home moving to Doncaster would want or need homes with up to 2 bedrooms b) 40% of first-time buyers, 60% of previous first-time buyers seeking a larger home and 20% of mature incoming families moving to Doncaster would want or need 3 bedroomed homes c) 30% of previous first-time buyers seeking a larger home and 80% of mature incoming families moving to Doncaster would want or need homes with 4 bedrooms or more.

26 Appendix C Affordability of home ownership and rental options

Affordability of home ownership at full market prices 1 bed homes may be out of reach of single people earning under average income levels and would only be affordable to a single person with an average income if priced at £100,000 or under. Couples with two average incomes could only afford 2 bed homes priced at £150,000 or under. Affordability of 1 and 2 bed homes for sale 1 Bed Homes 2 Bed Homes Full market Single Income Household Single Income Household Full market price price needed Income needed needed Income needed £100,000 £28,571 £32,258 £150,000 £42,857 £48,387 £150,000 £42,857 £48,387 £175,000 £50,000 £56,452 £175,000 £50,000 £56,452 £200,000 £57,143 £64,516 £200,000 £57,143 £64,516 £250,000 £71,429 £80,645 £250,000 £71,429 £80,645 £300,000 £85,714 £96,774 Note: Single average income is £23,872 per year: a bottom quartile income is £13,392 per year; bottom 20% income is £11,384 per year

Affordability of Help to Buy Shared Ownership

Shared ownership could also provide options at the ‘bottom end’ of the market and could be aimed at first- time buyers on below average incomes.

Affordability of Shared ownership options

Shared Ownership stake Income needed 100% 75% 50% 100% 75% 50% £100,000 £75,000 £50,000 £32,258 £24,194 £16,129 £150,000 £112,500 £75,000 £48,387 £36,290 £24,194 £175,000 £131,250 £87,500 £56,452 £42,339 £28,226 £200,000 £150,000 £100,000 £64,516 £48,387 £32,258 Note:

(1) Single average income is £23,872 per year: a single bottom quartile income is £13,392 per year; (2) Income for a household with 1.5 average incomes is £35,808; income for a household with 1.5 bottom quartile incomes is £. 20,088.

The table above shows that a 75% stake in any property priced up to £150,000 would be affordable to a couple with and average household income, while a 50% stake in any property would be affordable to a household with an average household income if priced at up to £200,000. A 75% stake would only affordable to a household on a bottom quartile household income if priced at, £100,000 or thereabouts, while a 50% stake would be affordable if priced at up to £150,000 Seeking new housing through the HCA Help to Buy Shared Ownership offering 75% stakes on properties priced at up to £150,000 or 50% stakes on properties priced at up to £200,000 would make new housing more accessible to the likely sources of demand.

27 Affordability of market rental options The table above shows the levels of single and household income needed to afford market rents at various price points.

Properties would be affordable to a household with a single average income at rents up to £600 per month; but would not be affordable to households with a single bottom quartile or bottom 20% income.

Properties would be affordable to a household with an average household income at rents up to £950 per month; to a household with a bottom quartile household income at rents of up to £550 per month and to a household with a bottom 20% household income at rents of up to £450 per month

Single and household incomes needed to afford market rents Monthly Rent Single Income Joint Income Monthly Rent Single Income Joint Income needed to needed to needed to needed to afford afford afford afford

£400 £16,800 £14,880 £700 £29,400 £26,040 £450 £18,900 £16,740 £750 £31,500 £27,900 £500 £21,000 £18,600 £800 £33,600 £29,760 £550 £23,100 £20,460 £850 £35,700 £31,620 £600 £25,200 £22,320 £900 £37,800 £33,480 £650 £27,300 £24,180 £950 £39,900 £35,340

Note: Single average income is £23,872 per year: a bottom quartile income is £13,392 per year bottom decile income is £11,384 per year. An average household income is £35,808, an average bottom quartile household income is £20,088 and an average bottom 20% income is £17,076.

28 Appendix D Huw Jones CV

EMPLOYMENT

April 2013 to date Independent Researcher and Consultant, Huw Jones Consultancy

Sole trader consultant focusing on evidence bases for housing and planning strategies and plans, advice on strategy and policy development, local housing market assessment, assessment of student housing demand and supply; assessment of the impacts of student housing on neighbourhood; assessment of private rented housing demand and supply, assessment of demand for low cost housing for sale and its affordability, and support to campaigning and lobbying on housing and related issues.

Provision of strategic housing consultancy and research services to Leeds City Council, including:

• 25 local Housing Market Assessments and HMA Updates connected to Neighbourhood Plans and housing growth programmes (2013–2017) • Assessment of potential demand in Leeds for low cost housing for sale outside the Governments Starter Homes initiative (March – April 2016) and for the Starter Homes Initiative in Leeds (April 2015) • Assessment of affordability implications of the Pay to Stay proposals in Leeds (2015) • Analysis of emerging Government housing policies and impacts for housing in Leeds (2014-2016) • Extra Care Housing schemes – Comparators of provision (2015) • Advice on planning applications for Purpose Built Student Accommodation (2014-2015) • A review of evidence on supply and demand of student accommodation (2014) Delivery of commissioned consultancy projects

• Local Housing Market Assessments for Huddersfield Town Centre and Newsome for Kirklees Neighbourhood Housing (2017) • Review of estate agents’ perceptions of the housing market in Tameside for Arc 4 (2017) • Evaluation of the SHMA for Central Lancashire and its validity as a basis for housing need assumptions for Chorley Borough Council (2017) • Production of evidence base for policy options for controlling HMOs in Liverpool (2017) and scoping study on Policy Options for Housing-in-Multiple Occupation for Liverpool City Council (2016) • Research for Kirklees Neighbourhood Housing on the implications of the Pay to Stay and the sale of higher value council properties elements of the Housing and Planning Act (2016) • Research for UNIPOL Student Homes on behalf of Leeds City Council, the University of Leeds and Leeds Beckett University on changes in student residence and housing market conditions and demand in Inner North-West Leeds (2007, 2012 and 2016) • Research for UNIPOL Student Homes on behalf of Lancaster University Students Union into the nature of supply and demand for off-campus housing in Lancaster Local Housing Market (October /November 2016) • Local Housing Market Assessment for Keepmoat/Strata Homes for Land at Hemsworth, Wakefield and Wortley, Leeds (2018) Seacroft and Halton Moor (2016) and Seacroft Hospital (2015) • Local Housing Market Assessment for the Wetherby Neighbourhood Development Plan (Wetherby Neighbourhood Forum 2015-2016) • Analysis of implications of extending Mandatory Licensing of HMOs and related reforms (2015) • Research for UNIPOL Student Homes into student housing demand and locational preferences and impacts on local housing markets in Bradford (2014) and Nottingham (2013)

April 2004 to March 2013 re’new (Strategy and Intelligence Manager) (2010 – 2013 Strategy and Consultancy Manager directly employed by re’new - £45,000) (2004 – 2010 secondment – employment by LCC, re’new contribute 50% of salary costs - £52,000) Responsible for delivery of a strategic housing service to Leeds City Council through a Service Level Agreement worth circa £80,000, including analysis of emerging Government housing policies and impacts for housing in Leeds; conduct of a programme of 15 local Housing Market Assessments; analysis and tracking of housing market conditions and trends in Leeds; facilitation and strategic advice to the Leeds Housing Forum, Leeds Homelessness Forum and Private Rented Housing Forum; research and housing market analysis support to major regeneration schemes; support to Chief Housing Officer and Lead member (Neighbourhoods and Housing) on regional and sub-regional housing strategy.

29 Responsible for delivery of information, advice and consultancy services to members of re’new generating around £40,000 in membership fees, including local housing market assessments and commissioned consultancy projects on student housing, rental affordability; back to back terraced housing; extra care housing and housing mediation.

2002 – 2004 Leeds City Council, Neighbourhoods and Housing Department (Housing and Regeneration Strategy Manager (45% Director £47,000) Responsible for management of a team of 10 staff to deliver housing and regeneration strategy work, research and neighbourhood profiling services; operation of the Leeds Housing Partnership Coordinated the West Yorkshire Housing Partnership and on-going bids to the Regional Housing Board: Served as an Advisor to Yorkshire and Humberside Housing Forum and Executive on the Regional Housing Strategy

1990 – 2002 Leeds City Council, Department of Housing Services (Research and Information Officer (PO1 circa £15,000), Principal Monitoring and Information Officer (PO5 circa £30,000), Principal Strategy and Information Officer (PO6 circa £40,000))

Responsible for management of a team of 12 staff to deliver housing strategy, housing research and performance monitoring, housing market and demand analysis and design and production of information on housing to residents, partners and Central Government

1987 – 1990 Kirklees Metropolitan Council (Housing Research Officer (SO1 £10,000)

Responsible for housing research and policy analysis in relation to housing stock condition, right to buy, housing development, Annual Housing Investment Programme submissions, establishment of Sadeh Lok Housing Association in Huddersfield.

1985 – 1987 University of Leeds, Department of Social Policy and Sociology (Research Assistant)

Responsible for providing research assistance to projects on closure of DHSS Resettlement Units, Single Homelessness in West Yorkshire, resettlement of single homeless men from large hostels in Leeds to independent living, the closure of Shaftesbury House hostel in Leeds. Also responsible for the provision of tutorial assistance to 1st year undergraduate Social Policy students

1980 – 1982 Brown and Root UK Ltd, Oil and Gas rig construction company, London (Administration Assistant, Assistant Certification Engineer)

1978 – 1980 Safeway’s Food Stores, New Malden, Surrey (Apprentice Butcher, Assistant Delicatessen Manager)

VOLUNTARY WORK

November 1989 to date Chair/Board member of Horton Housing Association, Bradford

Starting as a Board members before moving to be chair of the Board of Management, worked closely with the Senior Management Team and co-Board members to oversee the association and help guide its considerable growth from a single project offering a day shelter for single homeless people to a group of entities providing 30 housing and support services in six local authority areas with a turnover of £10.8 million.

April 2002 to October 2016 School Governor, Weetwood Primary School, Weetwood Lane, Leeds

Served as Vice Chair, Chair of the School Development Committee and Chair of the Resources Committee at various times and was involved in managing staff redundancies, two Head Teacher recruitments, two OFSTED Inspections, completion of an additional building for the school and management of the school Budget/Investment Plan.

EDUCATION

1982 – 1985 University of Leeds BA (Hons) degree in Social Policy and Administration (2:1 grade)

1971 – 1978 Raynes Park High School (8 GCE O levels (English Language, English Literature, Spoken English, Mathematics, Geography, Sociology, French, General Studies) 4 GCE A Levels (Geography, English, History, General Studies)

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