KWAJEX Scientific Overview and Objectives

KWAJEXKWAJEX TRMMTRMM KWAJALEINKWAJALEIN EXPERIMENTEXPERIMENT

NASANASA •• KMR/USAKAKMR/USAKA •• NOAANOAA

Version 24 February 1999 7DEOHRI&RQWHQWV

The scientific goal of KWAJEX ______2 1. Scientific issues to be addressed in KWAJEX ______4 1.1 Temporal sampling ______4 1.2 TRMM microwave imager (TMI)______5 a. Basic concepts ______5 b. Errors associated with radiative transfer calculation ______7 c. Errors associated with inputs to the radiative transfer calculation ______9 d. Errors associated with horizontal inhomogeneity______11 1.3 Precipitation radar (PR) ______12 1.4 Ground validation algorithms ______14 a. Convective/stratiform precipitation ______14 b. Precipitation structure ______17 c. Hydrometeor mapping ______18 d. Surface precipitation estimation______19 1.5 Cloud modeling ______20 a. Initialization ______21 b. Validation______22 1.6 Budget studies______23 2. Observational requirements______24 2.1 Summary of scientific objectives by section______24 2.2 Hydrometeor sampling ______24 2.3 Needs for simultaneous measurements ______25 2.4 Tradeoffs______26 3. Kwajalein Overview ______27 3.1 Geography ______27 3.2 Routinely collected TRMM GV data ______28 3.3 Kwajalein climatology ______29 a. Annual ______29 b. Radar climatology ______30 Variation of precipitating area______31 Diurnal cycle ______31 Storm morphology______32 References ______33

 Purpose of this document

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

The scientific goal of KWAJEX

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

 UDLQIDOOLVQRWVXIILFLHQWIRUWKHSXUSRVHVRIYDOLGDWLQJDQGFDOLEUDWLQJWKHVDWHOOLWHGDWDDQG VDWHOOLWHDOJRULWKPVVLQFHLWGRHVQRWDGGUHVVwhyWKHGLIIHUHQFHVH[LVW3K\VLFDOYDOLGDWLRQRI WKHDVVXPSWLRQVXVHGLQWKH70,35DQG*9DOJRULWKPVLVYLWDOWRFRUUHFWLQJHUURUVDQG LPSURYLQJDOO7500DOJRULWKPVVRWKDWWKH\UHDFKWKHULJKWDQVZHUVIRUWKHULJKWUHDVRQV 7KH*9VLWHVFRYHURQO\DWLQ\IUDFWLRQRIWKH7500VDWHOOLWHFRYHUDJH7KH*9GDWDFDQ VHUYHDVDFKHFNRQWKHVDWHOOLWHDOJRULWKPVEXWRQO\RYHUWKHVHOLPLWHGUHJLRQV7KH YHULILFDWLRQRISK\VLFDODVVXPSWLRQVKDVLPSDFWRQWKHJOREDO7500SURGXFWVDQGRXU FRQILGHQFHLQWKHLUDFFXUDF\ERWKDWWKH*9VLWHVDQGbetween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

 PART I: Scientific Overview

1. Scientific issues to be addressed in KWAJEX

1.1 Temporal sampling

$PRQJWKHVWDWHGJRDOVRI7500LVWKHJOREDOPDSSLQJRISUHFLSLWDWLRQRQPRQWKO\WLPH VFDOHVDQGRYHUƒ×ƒ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aNPRYHUaGD\V +XGORZDQG 3DWWHUVRQ *LYHQWKHNPUDGLXVRIWKH*9$UDLQPDSVDSSUR[LPDWHO\ *9UDLQPDSV aPRQWKVZRUWK ZRXOGEHUHTXLUHGWRSURGXFHDUDLQPDSGDWDEDVH HTXLYDOHQWWRWKDWIURP*$7(

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

1.2 TRMM microwave imager (TMI) a. Basic concepts

6DWHOOLWHSDVVLYHPLFURZDYHSUHFLSLWDWLRQHVWLPDWLRQWHFKQLTXHVXWLOL]HWKHPRGLILFDWLRQRI VXUIDFHXSZHOOLQJUDGLDWLRQE\SUHFLSLWDWLRQ%RWKVFDWWHULQJDQGDEVRUSWLRQUHGXFHHQHUJ\ UHDFKLQJWKHVXUIDFH$EVRUSWLRQRILQFRPLQJHQHUJ\E\LQWHUYHQLQJPDWHULDOVFDXVHVWKHPWR HPLWUDGLDWLRQ WKURXJK.LUFKRII·V/DZ ZKLFKLQFUHDVHVWKHXSZHOOLQJEULJKWQHVV WHPSHUDWXUHVFRPSDUHGWRDVLWXDWLRQZKHQQRDEVRUELQJPDWHULDOVDUHSUHVHQW6FDWWHULQJ UHGXFHVWKHXSZHOOLQJEULJKWQHVVWHPSHUDWXUH:DWHUDWWKHHDUWK·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

7KHDEVRUSWLRQRIPLFURZDYHUDGLDWLRQLVH[SUHVVHGE\σD 'LQZKLFK'LVWKHGHSWKRIWKH

UDLQOD\HUDQGσD LVWKHYROXPHDEVRUSWLRQFRHIILFLHQWDIXQFWLRQRIWKHPL[LQJUDWLRVRIUDLQ

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´HPSLULFDOµDQG´SK\VLFDOO\ EDVHGµPHWKRGRORJLHV 6PLWKHWDO (PSLULFDODOJRULWKPVGHULYHDVWDWLVWLFDOUHJUHVVLRQ EHWZHHQPHDVXUHGEULJKWQHVVWHPSHUDWXUHVDWVHYHUDOIUHTXHQFLHVDQGJURXQGPHDVXUHPHQWV RIUDLQIDOO UDGDUDQGRUUDLQJDXJH 7KH7500'D\SDVVLYHPLFURZDYHDOJRULWKPVXVH SK\VLFDOO\EDVHGSDVVLYHPLFURZDYHUDLQIDOOUHWULHYDO6PLWKHWDO  GHVFULEHGWKH FRQFHSWXDOEDVLVIRUSK\VLFDOO\EDVHGSDVVLYHPLFURZDYHUDLQIDOOUHWULHYDOLQWKHLU FRQFOXVLRQV

´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µ

$VLPSOLILHGYHUVLRQRIKRZWKHVHFRQFHSWVDUHLPSOHPHQWHGLQSK\VLFDOO\EDVHGSDVVLYH PLFURZDYHSUHFLSLWDWLRQUHWULHYDOVVXFKDVXVHGLQ7500LVDVIROORZV .XPPHURZ  &ORXGPRGHOVDUHLQLWLDOL]HGZLWKREVHUYHGXSSHUDLUVRXQGLQJVDQGRWKHUGDWDWRSURGXFH

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

b. Errors associated with radiative transfer calculation

)RUWKHSXUSRVHVRIWKLVVHFWLRQZHZLOOFRQVLGHUHUURUVLQWKHUDGLDWLYHWUDQVIHUFDOFXODWLRQ DVVXPLQJWKDWWKHLQSXWSDUDPHWHUVDUHSHUIHFW7KHVHW\SHVRIHUURUVFRQVWLWXWHRQO\DVPDOO SRUWLRQRIWKHRYHUDOOHUURULQPLFURZDYHUHWULHYDOVEXWZLOOEHGLVFXVVHGIRUFRPSOHWHQHVV 7KHXVHRIGLPHQVLRQDOYHUVXVGLPHQVLRQDOUDGLDWLYHWUDQVIHUFDOFXODWLRQVLVWKHSULPDU\ IRFXVRIUHVHDUFKLQWKLVDUHD %\.LUFKKRII·V/DZDEVRUSWLYLW\ HPLVVLYLW\DWDSDUWLFXODUZDYHOHQJWK7KXVFDOFXODWLQJ

DEVRUSWLRQDOVR\LHOGVHPLVVLRQ7KHYROXPHDEVRUSWLRQFRHIILFLHQWσD LVDIXQFWLRQRIWKH YHUWLFDOSURILOHRIPL[LQJUDWLRVRIUDLQFORXGGURSOHWVDQGZDWHUYDSRU,IWKHVHDUHNQRZQ

 σ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ƒ&OHYHOGHFUHDVHVZLWKKHLJKWDVZHOO $GGLWLRQDOO\WKHQDWXUHRILFHSDUWLFOHVFKDQJHVZLWKWHPSHUDWXUH DOWLWXGH 7KHPD[LPXP GLPHQVLRQRIDJJUHJDWHVWHQGVWRLQFUHDVHZLWKLQFUHDVLQJWHPSHUDWXUH GHFUHDVLQJKHLJKW VR WKDWWKHODUJHVWDJJUHJDWHVRFFXUEHWZHHQ²WRƒ& +REEVHWDO 7KHEDFNVFDWWHUHG FURVVVHFWLRQRISDUWLFOHVLQFUHDVHVPRUHWKDQOLQHDUO\ZLWKSDUWLFOHVL]H HJ'DWUDGDU IUHTXHQFLHV 7KXVWKHOD\HUVRILFHSDUWLFOHVZLWKWKHJUHDWHVWLPSDFWRQPLFURZDYH VFDWWHULQJZLOOEHWKRVHLQUHJLRQVRIKLJKHULFHSDUWLFOHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVDQGZLWKODUJHUVL]HV 7KHVHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVDUHPD[LPL]HGLQWKHUHJLRQMXVWDERYHWKHƒ&OHYHO+LJKDOWLWXGHLFH ZLWKLWVVPDOOVL]HDQGORZQXPEHUFRQFHQWUDWLRQKDVOLWWOHWRQRUHOHYDQFHWRPLFURZDYH UDGLDWLYHWUDQVIHUFDOFXODWLRQV .XPPHURZSHUVRQDOFRPPXQLFDWLRQ  7KHUHJLRQMXVWDERYHWKHƒ&OHYHOZKLFKLVRIYLWDOLPSRUWDQFHWRPLFURZDYHLFH VFDWWHULQJKDVDKLJKSUREDELOLW\RIFRQWDLQLQJVXSHUFRROHGZDWHU6XSHUFRROHGOLTXLGZDWHU GURSVZKHQSUHVHQWDUHXVXDOO\IRXQGDWWHPSHUDWXUHVEHWZHHQWR²ƒ&ZLWKWKHKLJKHVW PL[LQJUDWLRVREVHUYHGFORVHWRWKHƒ&OHYHO$LUFUDIWSHQHWUDWLQJWKHVHUHJLRQVZLOO HQFRXQWHUVHYHUHLFLQJFRQGLWLRQVVLQFHVXSHUFRROHGGURSOHWVIUHH]HZKHQWKH\FROOLGHZLWK DQDLUFUDIW :DOODFHDQG+REEV  7KHPL[HGSKDVHOD\HU HJUDGDUEULJKWEDQG ZLWKLQDSUHFLSLWDWLQJFORXGZKHUHLFH PHOWVDQGSDUWLFOHVRISXUHLFHSXUHOLTXLGZDWHUDQGFRPELQDWLRQLFHZDWHUK\GURPHWHRUV DUHSUHVHQWVLPXOWDQHRXVO\LVYHU\SRRUO\XQGHUVWRRG6LQFHWKLVUHJLRQLVWRRFRPSOH[WR PRGHOHOHFWURPDJQHWLFDOO\WKHRQO\PHDQVRIGHULYLQJDEVRUSWLRQDQGSDUWLFXODUO\VFDWWHULQJ

 SURSHUWLHVRIWKHPL[HGSKDVHUHJLRQDUHVLPXOWDQHRXVREVHUYDWLRQRIPLFURZDYHUDGLDQFHV DQGLQVLWXFORXGSK\VLFVPHDVXUHPHQWV7KHFORXGSK\VLFVPHDVXUHPHQWVPXVWEHDEOHWR GLVWLQJXLVKEHWZHHQLFHDQGZDWHUSDUWLFOHVZLWKLQWKHIXOOVSHFWUXPRIK\GURPHWHRUVL]HV PPPP LQRUGHUWRUHVROYHWKHUHVSHFWLYHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVRILFHYHUVXVOLTXLG ZDWHUVFDWWHUHUV

c. Errors associated with inputs to the radiative transfer calculation

0RVWRIWKHLQSXWVWRWKHUDGLDWLYHWUDQVIHUFDOFXODWLRQFDQEHSURGXFHGE\FORXGPRGHOV DQGWKXVWKHLUDFFXUDF\DQGSUHFLVLRQLVGLUHFWO\UHODWHGWRKRZZHOOWKHFORXGPRGHO VLPXODWHVWKHYDULRXVILHOGVRIWKHVWRUP'LVFXVVLRQRIFORXGPRGHOXQFHUWDLQWLHVLVGHIHUUHG XQWLO6HFWLRQ+RZHYHULWLVFOHDUWKDWIRUSK\VLFDOO\EDVHGSDVVLYHPLFURZDYHWHFKQLTXHV WKHEHWWHUWKHFORXGPRGHOZRUNVWKHEHWWHUWKHLQSXWWRWKHUDGLDWLYHWUDQVIHUFDOFXODWLRQ DQGWKXVWKHEHWWHUWKHGHULYHGEULJKWQHVVWHPSHUDWXUHWRVXUIDFHUDLQIDOOUDWHUHODWLRQV 7KHFDOFXODWLRQRIDEVRUSWLRQRIPLFURZDYHUDGLDWLRQUHTXLUHVWKHIROORZLQJSULPDU\ LQSXWVWKHEULJKWQHVVWHPSHUDWXUHRIWKHVXUIDFH ZKLFKLVDIXQFWLRQRIVXUIDFHHPLVVLYLW\  VXUIDFHWHPSHUDWXUHDQGVXUIDFHURXJKQHVVWKHLQFRPLQJPLFURZDYHUDGLDWLRQIURPWKH

FRVPRVWKHGHSWK'RIWKHUDLQOD\HUDQGσ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ƒ& OHYHOLQWKHIROORZLQJW\SHVRIFRQGLWLRQVZDUPUDLQVLWXDWLRQVZKHUHWKHUDLQOD\HUGRHVQRW

 H[WHQGWRWKHIUHH]LQJOHYHOZKHUHDVWRUPKDVLQGXFHGDORFDOL]HGFKDQJHLQƒ&OHYHODQG LQUHJLRQVZKHUHVXSHUFRROHGUDLQLVSUHVHQW :LOKHLW :LWKDPLQLPXPVHQVLWLYLW\LQ UHIOHFWLYLW\RIa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a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ƒ&OHYHO RIJUDXSHOZLWKLQD FROXPQDUHWKXVLPSRUWDQWSDUDPHWHUVLQWKHUDGLDWLYHWUDQVIHUFDOFXODWLRQ,QWHUPVRI PLFURZDYHUHWULHYDOVLWLVWKHUHIRUHSDUWLFXODUO\LPSRUWDQWWRYDOLGDWHWKHJUDXSHOILHOGLQ FORXGPRGHOV 7KHFXUUHQW750070,DOJRULWKPXVHVGLIIHUHQWK\GURPHWHRUSURILOHVIRUFRQYHFWLYHDQG VWUDWLIRUPSUHFLSLWDWLRQ7KHFORXGPRGHOSURGXFHGK\GURPHWHRUSURILOHVQHHGWREH

 YHULILHGZLWKREVHUYDWLRQVLQWHUPVRIWKHLUFRQVWLWXHQWVDQGPL[LQJUDWLRVLQERWKFRQYHFWLYH DQGVWUDWLIRUPSUHFLSLWDWLRQ

d. Errors associated with horizontal inhomogeneity

%HDPILOOLQJLVDEDVLFFKDUDFWHULVWLFRIDOOHOHFWURPDJQHWLFVHQVRUV(OHFWURPDJQHWLFEHDPV ZLGHQDVDIXQFWLRQRIUDQJHDQGEHDPZLGWKZKHQWKHEHDPLQWHUVHFWVDSDUWLFXODUYROXPH RIDWPRVSKHUHWKHUHWXUQHGHQHUJ\LVDIXQFWLRQRIWKHLQFLGHQWHQHUJ\DQGWKHQXPEHUVL]H DQGW\SHVRIVFDWWHUHUVEXWQRWWKHVSDWLDOGLVWULEXWLRQRIVFDWWHUHUVZLWKLQWKHYROXPH7ZR YROXPHVRIDWPRVSKHUHFRQWDLQLQJWKHVDPHQXPEHURIVFDWWHUHUVRIWKHVDPHVL]HDQGW\SH ZLOOVFDWWHUWKHVDPHDPRXQWRIHQHUJ\LQGHSHQGHQWRIWKHVSDWLDOGLVWULEXWLRQVRIWKH VFDWWHUHU )LJ 7KHEHDPILOOLQJ´SUREOHPµ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ƒ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

1.3 Precipitation radar (PR)

7KH7500.XEDQG3UHFLSLWDWLRQ5DGDU 35 LVVWURQJO\DWWHQXDWHGE\UDLQIDOO$ SRWHQWLDOO\ODUJHVRXUFHRIHUURULQ750035SURGXFWVLVWKHHUURUDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKH DWWHQXDWLRQFRUUHFWLRQWKDWLVDSSOLHGWRWKHVDWHOOLWHGDWDEHIRUHLWLVIXUWKHUSURFHVVHGLQWR UHIOHFWLYLW\SURILOHVFRQYHFWLYHVWUDWLIRUPPDSVDQGUDLQPDSV

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´WUXHµ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

 1.4 Ground validation algorithms

7KHSULPDU\JRDOVRIURXWLQH7500JURXQGYDOLGDWLRQDW*9VLWHVVXFKDV.ZDMDOHLQDUH WRSURYLGHFRQYHFWLYHDQGVWUDWLIRUPSUHFLSLWDWLRQPDSV $ 'SUHFLSLWDWLRQVWUXFWXUH $ DQGUDLQPDSV $ 7KHGHWDLOVRIWKHURXWLQHJURXQGYDOLGDWLRQGDWDVHWVDW .ZDMDOHLQDQGWKHLUDSSOLFDWLRQLQYDOLGDWLQJ7500VDWHOOLWHGDWDDUHGLVFXVVHGLQ6HFWLRQ 7KLVVHFWLRQZLOOGLVFXVVWKHVFLHQWLILFLVVXHVUHODWHGWRHDFKRIWKHVHSURGXFWV

a. Convective/stratiform precipitation

7KHQHWKHDWLQJRIWKHODUJHVFDOHHQYLURQPHQWE\PHVRVFDOHFRQYHFWLYHV\VWHPVLV GRPLQDWHGE\FRQGHQVDWLRQDQGHYDSRUDWLRQDVVRFLDWHGZLWKYHUWLFDODLUPRWLRQV,QWKH GLDJQRVWLFIUDPHZRUN´PHDVXUHPHQWVµRIWURSLFDOKHDWLQJHVVHQWLDOO\FRQVLVWRIHVWLPDWHVRI YHUWLFDOPDVVIOX[GHULYHGLQWXUQIURPHVWLPDWHVRIWKHKRUL]RQWDOGLYHUJHQFHRIPHDVXUHG ZLQGV HJ

 GLYHUJHQFHSURILOHV,QWKHFRQWH[WRI7500D´XVHIXOµGHILQLWLRQRIFRQYHFWLYHYHUVXV VWUDWLIRUPSUHFLSLWDWLRQFRUUHVSRQGVWRSUHFLSLWDWLQJUHJLRQVWKDWKDYH´FRQYHFWLYHµYHUVXV ´VWUDWLIRUPµGLYHUJHQFH DQGKHQFHKHDWLQJ SURILOHV ,QSK\VLFDOO\EDVHGSDVVLYHPLFURZDYHSUHFLSLWDWLRQUHWULHYDOVWKHFRQYHFWLYHVWUDWLIRUP FODVVLILFDWLRQKDVDQDGGLWLRQDOSXUSRVHLWLVXVHGWRDFFRXQWIRUWKHIDFWWKDWGLIIHUHQW YHUWLFDOK\GURPHWHRUSURILOHVFDQSURGXFHWKHVDPHVXUIDFHUDLQIDOO$WUDLQUDWHV  PPKUWKHHQVHPEOHFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIPLFURSK\VLFDOGDWDLQFRQYHFWLYHYHUVXVVWUDWLIRUP UHJLRQVLQWURSLFDOSUHFLSLWDWLRQDUHDVXEMHFWRIGHEDWH 7RND\DQG6KRUW

‡ 7KH'KRUL]RQWDOGLYHUJHQFHGDWDGHULYHGIURPGXDO'RSSOHUUDGDUGDWD VKLSUDGDU FRPELQHGZLWK.ZDMDOHLQ6EDQGUDGDU ZLOOEHXVHGWRLPSURYHDQGYHULI\WKH FRQYHFWLYHVWUDWLIRUPFODVVLILFDWLRQRI*9UDGDUGDWDZLWKUHJDUGWRLQWHUPHGLDWHDUHDV &RQYHFWLYHDQGVWUDWLIRUPDUHDVZLOOILUVWEHLGHQWLILHGE\WKHFXUUHQW*9DOJRULWKPXVLQJ

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

‡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

 b. Precipitation structure

'LIIHUHQWVWRUPVWUXFWXUHVFDQSURGXFHWKHVDPHVXUIDFHSUHFLSLWDWLRQ7KHUHIRUH YDOLGDWLRQRIVDWHOOLWHGHULYHGUDLQIDOOZLWKVXUIDFHUDLQIDOODORQHLVQRWVXIILFLHQW7KH7500 *9'UHIOHFWLYLW\SURGXFW $ DGGUHVVHVWKLVLVVXHLQWKHURXWLQH*9GDWD)URPWKH URXWLQH$SURGXFWVLWZLOOEHSRVVLEOHWRGHWHUPLQHWKHYDULDELOLW\RIWKH'UHIOHFWLYLW\ VWUXFWXUHZLWKLQFRQYHFWLYHVWUDWLIRUPDQGLQWHUPHGLDU\SUHFLSLWDWLRQDUHDV+RZHYHURQO\ ZLWKWKHILHOGFDPSDLJQGDWDFDQZHDGGUHVVWKHSK\VLFDOUHDVRQVIRUWKLVREVHUYHGYDULDELOLW\ RIWKH'VWUXFWXUHV7KHVHUHDVRQVPD\EHVRXJKWYLDDQVZHUVWRWKHIROORZLQJTXHVWLRQV

‡ :KDWLVWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRI'UHIOHFWLYLW\VWUXFWXUHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKUHJLRQVZLWK GLVWLQFWFRQYHFWLYHDQGVWUDWLIRUPGLYHUJHQFHSURILOHV"

‡ :KDWLVWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHYHUWLFDOSURILOHVRIK\GURPHWHRUW\SHVDVVRFLDWHGZLWK WKHVHSUHFLSLWDWLRQVWUXFWXUHV"

‡ :KDWLVWKHVHTXHQFHRIG\QDPLFDODQGPLFURSK\VLFDOSURFHVVHVDVFRQYHFWLYH SUHFLSLWDWLRQHYROYHVLQWRVWUDWLIRUPSUHFLSLWDWLRQ"

‡ :KDWDUHWKHLQLWLDWLQJPHFKDQLVPVDQGKRZGRWKH\DIIHFWVXEVHTXHQWJURZWKDQG RUJDQL]DWLRQ"

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

 c. Hydrometeor mapping

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

ƒ&OHYHO HJZDUPUDLQ 3RODUL]DWLRQGLYHUVHGDWD³='5DQG.'3 VSHFLILFGLIIHUHQWLDO SURSDJDWLRQSKDVH LQFRPELQDWLRQZLWKUDGDUUHIOHFWLYLW\FDQEHSURFHVVHGWRLGHQWLI\LFH SKDVHDQGPL[HGK\GURPHWHRUW\SHV7KHVHSRODULPHWULFGDWDDUHURXWLQHO\DYDLODEOHDWWKH 7500*9VLWHVDW'DUZLQDQG.ZDMDOHLQ2ISDUWLFXODULPSRUWDQFHWR7500PLFURZDYH

DQGFORXGPRGHOLQJREMHFWLYHVLVWKHPDSSLQJRIUHJLRQVFRQWDLQLQJJUDXSHO.'3LVQRW

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

 PDNHSRVVLEOHDPHDQVRIURXWLQH SK\VLFDOYDOLGDWLRQRI7500VDWHOOLWHDOJRULWKPVGXULQJ .ZDMDOHLQRYHUSDVVHV

d. Surface precipitation estimation

:DOGYRJHO  VKRZHGWKDWGLIIHUHQWGURSVL]HGLVWULEXWLRQV '6'V SURGXFHGIURP GLIIHUHQWSUHFLSLWDWLRQVWUXFWXUHVFDQ\LHOGWKHVDPHUDLQIDOOUDWHDWWKHVXUIDFH,IRQHKDV PHDVXUHGWKH'6'LQDYROXPHRIDWPRVSKHUHRQHFDQFDOFXODWHUDGDUUHIOHFWLYLW\ = DQG UDLQIDOOUDWH 5 GLUHFWO\

∞ Z = ∫ D 6 N()D dD 0 πρ ∞ R = ∫V ()D D 3 N ()D dD 6 0

ZKHUH1 ' LVWKHSDUWLFOHVL]HGLVWULEXWLRQIXQFWLRQVXFKWKDW1 ' G'LVWKHQXPEHURI SDUWLFOHVRIGLDPHWHU'WR'G'SHUXQLWYROXPHRIDLU9 ' LVWKHIDOOVSHHGRIDGURS ZLWKGLDPHWHU'DQGρLVWKHGHQVLW\RIOLTXLGZDWHU ,GHDOO\RQHZRXOGWKHUHIRUHPHDVXUH'6'VGLUHFWO\LQ'YROXPHVRIDWPRVSKHUHDQG FDOFXODWHUDLQUDWH 5 6LQFHGLIIHUHQW=s DVVRFLDWHGZLWKGLIIHUHQWGURSVL]HGLVWULEXWLRQVFDQ \LHOGWKHVDPH5,DQ\GHULYDWLRQRIDRQHWRRQHPDSSLQJRI=LQWR5 PXVWPDNHVRPH DVVXPSWLRQVUHJDUGLQJWKHQDWXUHRIWKHGURSVL]HGLVWULEXWLRQ 8VHRIPXOWLSOH=5UHODWLRQVWRJHQHUDWH7500UDLQIDOOPDSV $ EHJVWKHTXHVWLRQ RIZKHWKHULWLVSUDFWLFDOWRGLVWLQJXLVKUHJLRQVZLWKGLIIHUHQW'6'VXVLQJURXWLQH*9GDWD LHUDGDUUHIOHFWLYLW\RQO\ 

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

7KHPXOWLSOHSRODUL]DWLRQYDULDEOHVVXFKDV='5DYDLODEOHDWWKH7500*9VLWHVDW 'DUZLQDQG.ZDMDOHLQSHUPLWXVWRH[DPLQHWKHTXHVWLRQRIZKHWKHUUHJLRQVZLWKGLIIHUHQW

'6'VFDQEHLGHQWLILHGZLWKUDGDUGDWD='5LVUHODWHGWRWKHPHGLDQGLDPHWHURIWKHGURS

VL]HGLVWULEXWLRQ7KHSRODUL]DWLRQGLYHUVHYDULDEOH.'3SHUPLWVHVWLPDWLRQRIUDLQIDOOZLWKRXW

QHHGLQJWRNQRZWKH'6'VLQFH.'3LVUHODWHGWRWKHOLTXLGZDWHUFRQWHQWGLUHFWO\DQGLV LQGHSHQGHQWRIGURSVL]HGLVWULEXWLRQLQWKH5D\OHLJKUHJLPH 6DFKLGDQDQGDDQG=UQLF

.HHQDQHWDO 7KHVLJQDOLQERWK='5DQG.'3LVVWURQJHVWIRUREODWHOLTXLGZDWHU

GURSV !PPGLDPHWHU 7KXVQHLWKHU='5QRU.'3FDQGLVWLQJXLVKEHWZHHQZHDNUDLQ UDWHVZKHQWKHGURSVDUHVPDOOHUWKDQPPDQGVSKHULFDO,WLVJHQHUDOO\DJUHHGWKDWD

K\EULGDOJRULWKPXWLOL]LQJVRPHFRPELQDWLRQRIREVHUYHGUDGDUUHIOHFWLYLW\='5DQG.'3 ZLOOEHQHHGHGWRPDSWKHIXOOUDQJHRIREVHUYHGUDLQUDWHV ,OOLQJZRUWKSHUVRQDO FRPPXQLFDWLRQ:LOVRQSHUVRQDOFRPPXQLFDWLRQ=UQLFSHUVRQDOFRPPXQLFDWLRQ ,WLV WKHUHIRUHOLNHO\WKDWWKH7500*9'D\DOJRULWKPDW*9VLWHVZLWKSRODUL]DWLRQUDGDUVZLOO

XVHVRPHFRPELQDWLRQRI=='5DQG.'3

1.5 Cloud modeling

&ORXGPRGHOLQJLVWKHO\QFKSLQRI75006LQFHQHLWKHUKRUL]RQWDOQRUYHUWLFDOZLQGVDUH URXWLQHO\PHDVXUHGDWWKH*9VLWHVQRUE\WKH7500VDWHOOLWHPRGHOLQJLVWKHSULPDU\ PHDQVE\ZKLFKWKHYHUWLFDOJUDGLHQWRIODWHQWKHDWLQJFDQEHGHWHUPLQHGURXWLQHO\IURP 7500REVHUYDWLRQV$GGLWLRQDOO\FORXGPRGHOVSOD\DNH\UROHLQSK\VLFDOO\EDVHGSDVVLYH PLFURZDYHUHWULHYDOVE\SURGXFLQJSK\VLFDOO\FRQVLVWHQWK\GURPHWHRUWHPSHUDWXUHPRLVWXUH

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

a. Initialization

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

 b. Validation

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ƒ&OHYHOLQVWUDWLIRUPUHJLRQVLQVLWXPHDVXUHPHQWVZLWKLQWURSLFDOFORXGVKDYHLQGLFDWHG WKHYLUWXDODEVHQFHRIOLTXLGZDWHUDERYHWKLVOHYHO +RX]HDQG&KXUFKLOO ,QVLWX PLFURSK\VLFVPHDVXUHPHQWVMXVWDERYHWKHƒ&OHYHODUHQHHGHGWRUHVROYHWKLVLVVXH%HORZ WKHƒ&OHYHOWKHPL[LQJUDWLRRIOLTXLGZDWHUDQGGURSVL]HGLVWULEXWLRQVRIUDLQDUHQHHGHG

 DVDIXQFWLRQRIKHLJKWWRDVVHVVWKHPRGLILFDWLRQRI'6'E\HYDSRUDWLRQIURPEHORZWKH PL[HGSKDVHOD\HUWRWKHVXUIDFH 7RDGGUHVVPRGHOYDOLGDWLRQLVVXHVUHODWHGWRVWRUPHYROXWLRQWKHMRLQWYDULDWLRQRIWKH 'YHUWLFDOYHORFLW\DQGZDWHUVXEVWDQFHPL[LQJUDWLRVDUHQHHGHGDWKLJKWLPH aPLQ DQG VSDWLDOUHVROXWLRQ a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ƒ&WR²ƒ&DQGDWDORZHU WHPSHUDWXUHUHVROXWLRQXSWRWKHWURSRSDXVH ²ƒ& 7KHUHJLRQVEHORZWKHƒ&OHYHO FRQWDLQWKHPDMRULW\RIWKHPDVVRILFHSDUWLFOHVZLWKLQWURSLFDOVWRUPV +RX]HDQG&KXUFKLOO  5HJLRQVZLWKPRUHLFHZRXOGQHHGWREHVDPSOHGPRUHIUHTXHQWO\WKDQUHJLRQVZLWK VSDUVHLFHVLQFHWKHLQWHUDFWLRQVRILFHZLWKWKHPRGHOSK\VLFVZLOOEHSURSRUWLRQDOO\ODUJHU ZKHUHPRUHLFHLVSUHVHQW

1.6 Budget studies

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

 REVHUYHGE\UDGDUVRWKDWWKHEXGJHWVWXG\GHULYHGSUHFLSLWDWLRQHVWLPDWHFDQEHIXUWKHU FRQVWUDLQHGE\UDGDUGHULYHGSUHFLSLWDWLRQHVWLPDWHVDQGKRUL]RQWDOGLYHUJHQFHSURILOHV REWDLQHGIURPGXDO'RSSOHUUDGDUGDWD

2. Observational requirements

2.1 Summary of scientific objectives by section

7KHREVHUYDWLRQUHTXLUHPHQWVIRU.:$-(;DUHVXPPDUL]HGIURPWKHSUHYLRXVVHFWLRQVLQ 7DEOH

2.2 Hydrometeor sampling

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

 KLJKHVWSULRULW\PHDVXUHPHQWVDUHLQWKHUDLQUHJLRQWKHPL[HGSKDVHUHJLRQDQGWKH SRUWLRQRIWKHLFHUHJLRQZLWKWKHODUJHVWVL]HDQGODUJHVWFRQFHQWUDWLRQRIVFDWWHUHUV WHPSHUDWXUHVKLJKHUWKDQ²ƒ& ,QWHUHVWLVPRGHUDWHLQWKHUHJLRQEHWZHHQ²ƒ&DQG ²ƒ&DQGWKHQGHFUHDVHVIRUWHPSHUDWXUHVOHVVWKDQ²ƒ&ZKHUHWKHPDVVFRQFHQWUDWLRQLV ORZHU*URXQGYDOLGDWLRQREMHFWLYHVKDYHKLJKLQWHUHVWLQPLFURSK\VLFVIURPWKHVXUIDFHWR ²ƒ&HVSHFLDOO\LQWKHILUVWNPDERYHWKHƒ&OHYHOZKHUHSDUWLFOHVDJJUHJDWHEHIRUHIDOOLQJ WKURXJKWKHPHOWLQJOD\HU$WDOWLWXGHVDERYH²ƒ&SDUWLFOHFRQFHQWUDWLRQVDUHORZHUDQG LQWHUHVWLVPRGHUDWH&ORXGPRGHOVQHHGYDOLGDWLRQRIZDWHUVXEVWDQFHPL[LQJUDWLRV WKURXJKRXWWKHGHSWKRIWKHVWRUPEXWHVSHFLDOO\ZKHUHZDWHUDQGLFH DQGKHQFHHIIHFWVRI ODWHQWKHDWLQJDQGFRROLQJ DUHFRQFHQWUDWHGEHORZ²ƒ&5DGDUHFKRWRSVIRUWKHWDOOHU .ZDMDOHLQSUHFLSLWDWLQJFORXGVDUHDWaNPDOWLWXGH ²ƒ& VWUDWLIRUPUHJLRQVKDYHHFKR WRSVRIaNP ²ƒ& DQGWKHWURSRSDXVHLVQHDUNP ²ƒ& 7KHFRPELQHGLQWHUHVW RI70,35*9DQGFORXGPRGHOLQJLQPLFURSK\VLFDOVDPSOHVDVDIXQFWLRQRIKHLJKWLV VXPPDUL]HGLQ)LJE\ZHLJKWLQJLQWHUHVWOHYHODVIRUORZIRUPRGHUDWHDQGIRUKLJK DQGWKHQVXPPLQJIRUHDFKRIWKHIRXUVFLHQWLILFIDFHWV,QWHUHVWLQPLFURSK\VLFDOVDPSOHV KDVWKHVWURQJHVWRYHUODSEHORZWKH²ƒ&OHYHODQGGHFUHDVHVVOLJKWO\EHWZHHQ²ƒ&DQG ²ƒ&$WDOWLWXGHVDERYH²ƒ&FRPELQHGLQWHUHVWLVDERXWKDOIZKDWLWLVLQWKHUDLQOD\HU

2.3 Needs for simultaneous measurements

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

 PRXQWHGRQVHSDUDWHDLUFUDIWWKHQVLPXOWDQHRXVPHDVXUHPHQWVZLOORQO\EHDYDLODEOHZKHQ WKHIOLJKWWUDFNVRIWKHWZRDLUFUDIWDUHSUHFLVHO\FRRUGLQDWHG 7KHFRPSOH[LW\RIWKHSUHFLSLWDWLQJFORXGVPDNHVXQDPELJXRXVLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIDQ\VLQJOH REVHUYHGYDULDEOHGLIILFXOWZLWKRXWRWKHULQIRUPDWLRQWRSXWLWLQWRFRQWH[W7KXVZKHQ IHDVLEOHVLPXOWDQHRXVPHDVXUHPHQWVRIGLIIHUHQWYDULDEOHVE\WKHVDPHSODWIRUPDQGE\ GLIIHUHQWSODWIRUPVDUHQRWRQO\SUHIHUDEOHRYHUPHDVXUHPHQWVZLWKRXWRWKHUREVHUYDWLRQDO FRQWH[WEXWHVVHQWLDO$VDPLQLPXPWKHVFDQQLQJ6EDQGUDGDURQ.ZDMDOHLQ,VODQGFDQ SURYLGHFRQWH[WXDOLQIRUPDWLRQLQWHUPVRIWKHURXWLQH*9SURGXFWVIRUREVHUYDWLRQVPDGH ZLWKLQNPRILWVORFDWLRQ2QHRIWKHJRDOVRI.:$-(;LVWRHQKDQFHSK\VLFDO LQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIWKHURXWLQH*9GDWDWKDWZLOOEHDSULPDU\VRXUFHRIWKHODUJHGDWDVDPSOHV UHTXLUHGE\WHPSRUDOVDPSOLQJVWXGLHV 6HFWLRQ .:$-(;GDWDFROOHFWLRQE\PRELOH SODWIRUPVVXFKDVVKLSVDQGDLUFUDIWZLOOKDYHLWVODUJHVWLPSDFWRQWKHVFLHQWLILFREMHFWLYHV ZKHQLWLVFROOHFWHGZLWKLQDNPUDGLXVIURP.ZDMDOHLQLVODQG

2.4 Tradeoffs

6RPHW\SHVRIGDWDFROOHFWLRQDUHPXWXDOO\H[FOXVLYHRIRWKHUV6HYHUDORIWKHEDVLFW\SHVRI WUDGHRIIVIDFLQJ.:$-(;DUH

‡ 8VHRIDVFDQQLQJUDGDULQYROXPHVHFWRUPRGHQHFHVVDU\WRREWDLQKLJKWLPH UHVROXWLRQVDPSOHVSUHFOXGHVLWVXVHIRUVFDQQLQJƒYROXPHV7KXVLIWKH .ZDMDOHLQ,VODQG6EDQGUDGDULVXVHGLQVHFWRUPRGHIRUH[WHQGHGSHULRGVRIWLPH WKHURXWLQH*9SURGXFWV ZKLFKUHTXLUHƒVFDQV IRUWKHPRQWKVRIWKHILHOG FDPSDLJQZLOOEHFRPSURPLVHGDQGQRWDEOHWREHXVHGDVLQSXWWRWHPSRUDO VDPSOLQJVWXGLHV

‡ 7KHUHVROXWLRQRIGXDO'RSSOHUGDWDLVUHODWHGWRWKHGLVWDQFHEHWZHHQWKHWZRUDGDUV EDVHOLQH 7KHVKRUWHUWKHEDVHOLQHWKHKLJKHUWKHUHVROXWLRQ+RZHYHUWKHDUHD FRYHUHGE\GXDO'RSSOHUPHDVXUHPHQWVLVUHODWHGLQWKHLQYHUVHPDQQHUWKHVKRUWHU WKHEDVHOLQHWKHVPDOOHUWKHDUHDVDPSOHGDQGWKXVWKHVPDOOHUWKHVDPSOHVL]H

 ‡ 6ORZHUDLUFUDIWVSHHGVDUHSUHIHUDEOHIRUKLJKTXDOLW\PLFURSK\VLFDOVDPSOLQJEXW KLJKHUVSHHGVZLOOVDPSOHORQJHUDORQJWUDFNGLVWDQFHVDWORZHUTXDOLW\

‡ ([DFWVLPXOWDQHRXVPHDVXUHPHQWVFROOHFWHGE\WZRDLUFUDIWDWGLIIHUHQWDOWLWXGHVDUH GLIILFXOWWRREWDLQSDUWLFXODUO\LIWKHUHLVDPLVPDWFKLQVSHHGRIWKHDLUFUDIW $GGLWLRQDOO\WKHSUHVHQFHRIRQHDLUFUDIWLQWKHVDPSOLQJYROXPHRIDQLQVWUXPHQW RQWKHRWKHUDLUFUDIWFDQFRPSURPLVHWKHPHDVXUHPHQWV HJVNLQSDLQWLQJRIDLUFUDIW E\UDGDU 

3. Kwajalein Overview

3.1 Geography

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

 7KH861DWLRQDO:HDWKHU6HUYLFHKDVDFRRSHUDWLYHDJUHHPHQWZLWK50,DQGDGPLQLVWHUV ZHDWKHUUHODWHGIDFLOLWLHVVXFKDVXSSHUDLUVRXQGLQJVDQGUDLQJDXJHVZLWKLQ50,WKDWDUH QRWXQGHUWKHMXULVGLFWLRQRI.053ODFHPHQWRIIDFLOLWLHVRQLVODQGVRXWVLGH.05 MXULVGLFWLRQUHTXLUHVORFDOFRRSHUDWLRQZKLFKLVFRPSOH[DQGGLIILFXOWWRREWDLQ)RU .:$-(;WKHVHUHTXHVWVZRXOGEHQHJRWLDWHGWKURXJKWKH1:6RIILFHLQ+RQROXOX

3.2 Routinely collected TRMM GV data

7KURXJKWKHHIIRUWVRIWKH75002IILFHWKH6EDQGUDGDURQ.ZDMDOHLQ,VODQGZDV XSJUDGHGIRUXVHDVD7500*9VLWH7KHVHXSJUDGHVLQFOXGHGDQHZDQWHQQD P GLDPHWHU SURFHVVRUDQGWKHDGGLWLRQLQ0DUFKRIGXDOSRODUL]DWLRQFDSDELOLW\7KH6 EDQGUDGDUDW.ZDMDOHLQKDVDVXIILFLHQWO\ORQJZDYHOHQJWK FP VRWKDWDWWHQXDWLRQE\ WURSLFDOSUHFLSLWDWLRQLVPLQLPDODQGVFDWWHUHUVOHVVWKDQaPPLQGLDPHWHUDUHZLWKLQWKH 5D\OHLJKVFDWWHULQJUHJLPH7KH.05UHTXLUHPHQWVIURPWKLVUDGDUDUHVXUYHLOODQFHVFDQV HYHU\aPLQ%HWZHHQWKHVXUYHLOODQFHVFDQVWKHUDGDUFDQEHXVHGLQDPDQQHUVXLWHGWR 7500QHHGV7KXVXQOLNHWKH1(;5$'UDGDUVDWWKH*9VLWHVLQ)ORULGDDQG7H[DVWKH VFDQVWUDWHJ\RIWKH6EDQGUDGDUDW.ZDMDOHLQKDVEHHQRSWLPL]HGIRU7500*9 UHTXLUHPHQWV 7KHURXWLQH*9.ZDMDOHLQVFDQVWUDWHJ\FRQVLVWVRIDVXUYHLOODQFHVFDQ )LJ LQWHUVSHUVHG ZLWKDVHWRIWKUHHƒYROXPHVUHSHDWHGHYHU\PLQ 7DEOH 7KHILUVWYROXPHSURYLGHV UHIOHFWLYLW\DQGUDGLDOYHORFLW\GDWDDQGFRQVLVWVRIHOHYDWLRQDQJOHVVFDQQHGDWa GHJVHF )LJ 'XDOSRODUL]DWLRQGDWDUHTXLUHVVDPSOHVLQERWKKRUL]RQWDODQGYHUWLFDO SRODUL]DWLRQV7KHFXUUHQWWUDQVPLWWHUUHFHLYHUV\VWHPRQWKH.ZDMDOHLQUDGDULVVXFKWKDW VXIILFLHQWVDPSOHVDWERWKSRODUL]DWLRQVFDQRQO\EHFROOHFWHGLIWKHVFDQUDWHLVVORZHGWRa GHJVHFRUOHVV7KHVHFRQGDQGWKLUGYROXPHVDUHVFDQQHGDWWKLVVORZUDWHDQGDUHWLOWV

HDFK )LJVDQG 7KHVHVFDQVSURYLGHGXDOSRODUL]DWLRQGDWD³='5DQG3+,'3 Φ'3 WRWDOGLIIHUHQWLDOSKDVH DVZHOODVUHIOHFWLYLW\DQGUDGLDOYHORFLW\7KHYHUWLFDOUHVROXWLRQRI WKHVHFRQGDQGWKLUGYROXPHVLVVLPLODUWRWKDWRI1(;5$'GDWDWKHUHVROXWLRQRIWKH WLOWYROXPHLVEHWWHU7KHVFDQVIRUWKHVHFRQGDQGWKLUGYROXPHVDUHLQWHUOHDYHGDQGWKHGDWD FDQEHFRPELQHGLQWRKLJKHUUHVROXWLRQYROXPHVIRUVWDWLVWLFDODQDO\VLV

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

3.3 Kwajalein climatology a. Annual

.ZDMDOHLQKDVDW\SLFDOWURSLFDORFHDQLFFOLPDWH7KHPHDQGDLO\WHPSHUDWXUHDW.ZDMDOHLQ LVUHODWLYHO\VWHDG\DWƒ)DOO\HDUORQJZLWKKLJKVQHDUƒ)DQGORZVQHDUƒ)5HODWLYH KXPLGLW\LVKLJKHVWDW/RFDO7LPH  DQGORZHVWDW/RFDO7LPH  2Q DYHUDJHWKHPRQWKO\UDLQIDOOJHQHUDOO\LQFUHDVHVIURP0D\WR2FWREHUDQGLVORZHVWLQ )HEUXDU\ )LJD 6XUIDFHPHDQZLQGVDUHHDVWHUO\WKURXJKRXWWKH\HDU0HDQZLQGVSHHGV DUHQHDUPVWKURXJK-XO\2FWREHUDQGLQFUHDVHWRPVGXULQJ'HFHPEHU0D\ )LJ E 7KHKLJKHVWZLQGVPHDVXUHGDW.ZDMDOHLQDUHDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWURSLFDOVWRUPV2Q DYHUDJHWURSLFDOVWRUPVFURVV.ZDMDOHLQRQFHHYHU\\HDUV7KHPRQWKVZLWKWKHORZHVW WURSLFDOVWRUPIUHTXHQF\  DUH-XQH2FWREHU7KHPRQWKVRI1RYHPEHU$SULOKDYHWZR

 WRWKUHHWLPHVWKHIUHTXHQF\RIWURSLFDOVWRUPVDVWKHUHVWRIWKH\HDU.ZDMDOHLQDYHUDJHV GD\VD\HDUZLWKWKXQGHUVWRUPV OLJKWQLQJ VOLJKWO\OHVVWKDQ=LSVHU·V  HVWLPDWHRIRQH WKXQGHUVWRUPSHUPRQWKIRUWURSLFDORFHDQLFSUHFLSLWDWLRQ

b. Radar climatology

6LQFHWKHSXUSRVHRI.:$-(;LVWRSURYLGHSK\VLFDOYDOLGDWLRQIRU1$6$ V7URSLFDO 5DLQIDOO0HDVXULQJ0LVVLRQWKHH[SHULPHQWDOREMHFWLYHVDOOUHYROYHDURXQGSUHFLSLWDWLQJ V\VWHPV.:$-(;RSHUDWLRQVZLOOEHIRFXVHGRQWKHNPUDGLXVDUHDFHQWHUHGRQWKH .ZDMDOHLQ6EDQGUDGDUDWƒ1ƒ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

 HFKRODUJHUWKDQDSDUWLFXODUG%=WKUHVKROG$IHZG%YDULDWLRQVGRQRWFKDQJHDUHDO VWDWLVWLFVEDVHGRQG%=WKUHVKROGVLJQLILFDQWO\EXWFDQKDYHDPDMRULPSDFWRQDUHDODYHUDJH UDLQUDWHVSDUWLFXODUO\DWKLJKHUUHIOHFWLYLWLHV)RURXUSXUSRVHVLQWKLVFKDSWHUZHZLOOXVH UDGDUHFKRHV!G%=WRLQGLFDWHSUHFLSLWDWLQJDUHDV.HHSLQJWKHXQFHUWDLQWLHVLQ FDOLEUDWLRQLQPLQGG%=FRUUHVSRQGVWRDUDLQUDWHRIaPPKUEDVHGRQWKHQRPLQDO .ZDMDOHLQ=5GHULYHGIURPKLVWRULFDOGDWD

Variation of precipitating area

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

Diurnal cycle

7KHGLXUQDOF\FOHRIDUHDOIUDFWLRQRISUHFLSLWDWLRQLVUHODWLYHO\ZHDNGXULQJWKHVXPPHU YDU\LQJOHVVWKDQIURPWKHPRQWKO\KRXUO\PD[LPXPWRKRXUO\PLQLPXP )LJ 7KH

 ODFNRIFRQVLVWHQF\EHWZHHQWKHGLXUQDOF\FOHVLQWKHDQGGDWDPDNHV JHQHUDOL]DWLRQGLIILFXOW'XULQJWKHPRQWKRI$XJXVWWKHUHLVDWHQGHQF\WRIDYRUFRQYHFWLYH DFWLYLW\IURPORFDOWLPHDQGGLVIDYRULWLQWKHHDUO\PRUQLQJ'XULQJ6HSWHPEHU WKHOXOOLQFRQYHFWLYHDFWLYLW\LVODWHULQWKHGD\FHQWHUHGURXJKO\DWPLGGD\

Storm morphology

6WRUPVGXULQJ6HSWHPEHUDGYHFWHGDFURVVWKH*9UHJLRQIURPWKHQRUWKQRUWKHDVW QRUWKZHVWZHVWDQGHDVW6LQFHVXUIDFHPHWHRURORJLFDOWLPHVHULHVDQGXSSHUDLUGDWDIRUWKLV SHULRGLVQRWDYDLODEOHDWWKLVWLPHLWLVGLIILFXOWWRDVVHVVLIWKHSUHYDLOLQJZLQGVVKLIWHGZLWK VWRUPSDVVDJHRULIVWRUPPRWLRQZDVVRPHWLPHVFRXQWHUWRWKHORZOHYHOSUHYDLOLQJZLQG 3UHFLSLWDWLRQSDWWHUQVGXULQJ6HSWHPEHUZHUHRIWHQFKDRWLF7KUHHPDLQFDWHJRULHVRI SUHFLSLWDWLRQSDWWHUQVREVHUYHGGXULQJWKLVSHULRGDUHLOOXVWUDWHGE\WKHH[DPSOHVLQ)LJ DN

‡ ODUJHSUHFLSLWDWLRQUHJLRQVZLWKZHOOGHILQHGQDUURZ NP FRQYHFWLYHEDQGVDQG H[WHQVLYHDUHDVRIPDWXUHFRQYHFWLRQ

‡ QDUURZFRQYHFWLYHEDQGVNPLQZLGWKDQGNPRUPRUHLQOHQJWKZLWKRXW DVVRFLDWHGPDWXUHFRQYHFWLYHUHJLRQV

‡ UHJLRQVFRQWDLQLQJOHVVRUJDQL]HGFRQYHFWLYHDFWLYLW\ZLWKSUHFLSLWDWLQJUHJLRQVXSWRa NPLQGLPHQVLRQ

7KHVDPSOLQJRIWKHVHGLVWLQFWSUHFLSLWDWLRQVWUXFWXUHVZLOOUHTXLUHGLIIHUHQWDLUFUDIWIOLJKW WUDFNSDWWHUQV3DUW,,RIWKLVGRFXPHQWWKH.:$-(;([SHULPHQWDO3ODQZLOODGGUHVVWKH VSHFLILFSODQVIRUJURXQGEDVHGRFHDQVXUIDFHDQGDLUFUDIWVHQVRUGHSOR\PHQWDQG FRRUGLQDWLRQWRDFFRPSOLVKWKHREVHUYDWLRQDOUHTXLUHPHQWVGHULYHGIURPWKHVFLHQWLILF REMHFWLYHVLQ3DUW,

 References $GOHU5)+<0

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

 :DNDVXJL.$0L]XWDQL00DWVXR6)XNDRDQG6.DWR$GLUHFWPHWKRGRI GHULYLQJGURSVL]HGLVWULEXWLRQDQGYHUWLFDODLUYHORFLWLHVIURP9+)'RSSOHUUDGDU VSHFWUD-$WPRV2FHDQ7HFK :DOGYRJHO$7KH1RMXPSLQUDLQGURSVSHFWUD-$WPRV6FL :DOODFH-0DQG39+REEV$WPRVSKHULF6FLHQFH$Q,QWURGXFWRU\6XUYH\$FDGHPLF 3UHVV1HZ

 Table 1. Mapping of specific types of measurements to scientific objectives by section. Relative scale of importance of measurement to objective on scale from 1 to 10. v refers to validation portion of objective and i refers to initialization portion of objective. Scientific Objectives RTC RTC PR conv/ precip sfc budget cloud input inhom (1.3 sf struct precip (1.6) mode (1.2.3) (1.2.4) ) (1.4.1) (1.4.2) (1.4.4) l (1.5) Horiz Divergence Profiles at 500m-2 km res in 3D vol 66610881010v over areas 10 10v Vertical Velocity at 500m-2km res in 3d vol 51010788 10 10v along flight tracks 8 8 5v 8v Thermodynamic Profiles sfc to stratosphere 10 3 0 0 5 2 9 10i boundary layer 10 3 0 0 5 2 10 10i within precip regions 10 3 0 0 8 2 5 8v budget over closed array 8 NA 0 6 2 9 10 10vi Horiz spatial variability of water vapor at low levels 5 3 0 4 1 0 10 9vi Surface evaporation 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 9i Surface temperature (SST) 7 0 1 0 5 0 10 8i Surface wind 7 3 10 0 5 7 10 8v Incoming microwave radiation 4 4 0 0 0000 Depth of rain layer 10 7 10 8 10 8 0 5v Microwave scattering of regions with high concs of ice and large ice at TMI freq Upward 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 Downward 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Microwave absorption of rain regions at TMI freq Upward 10 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 Downward 10 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 Mixing ratios and num. conc. with height and their spatial variability within precipitating cloud: water vapor 10 4 0 5 0 0 5 10vi cloud water 8 4 0 8 0 0 0 10v cloud ice 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 10v rain 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 9v snow (aggregates) 10 10 7 10 10 8 0 10v graupel 10 10 7 10 10 8 0 10v Drop size distributions fine res vertical profiles 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 8vi fine res horiz variability 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 5v Graupel detection NA NA NA 8 9008v 3D vols of non-attenuated Z 8 10 10 10 10 6 0 10v Surface rain rates 10 10 10 7 10 10 10 10v 3D volumes of ZDR, KDP and ρhv 0 6 6 8 10 10 0 10v Table 2. Basic characteristics of nominal Kwajalein TRMM GV radar scan strategy. a) Scan speed # bin spacing Max range Nyquist name variables # samples PRF (Hz) (deg/sec) tilts (m) (km) velocity (m/s) survellience Z 8 1 50 250 378.5 396 NA Non-pol volume Z, Vr 18 22 52 250 160.5 934 25.0 dual-pol A Z, Vr, ZDR, 116 (58 H/ 811 250 160.5 934 25.0 volume PHIDP 58 V) dual-pol B Z, Vr, ZDR, 116 (58 H/ 811 250 160.5 934 25.0 volume PHIDP 58 V) b) scan name set of elevation angles (deg) surveillance 1 non-pol volume 0.4, 0.65, 0.9, 1.2, 1.5, 1.9, 2.3, 2.7, 3.1, 3.5, 4.3, 5.2, 6.0, 7.0, 8.1, 9.5, 11.1, 13.2, 15.7, 18.9, 23.1, 28.8 dual-pol A volume 0.4, 1.2, 1.9, 2.7, 3.5, 5.2, 7.0, 9.5, 13.2, 18.9, 28.8 dual-pol B volume 0.4, 0.9, 1.5, 2.3, 3.1, 4.3, 6.0, 8.1, 11.1, 15.7, 23.1 Vertical Structure of Hydrometeors Profile of Radiative Calculated Atmospheric Transfer Brightness Pressure, Calculation Temperatures Temperature, RH Surface Wind Speed Surface Temperature Figure 1. Illustration of the radiative transfer calculation input and outputs.

All these volumes contain the same number of identically sized targets. a) b) c)

d) e) f)

All these volumes have the same radar reflectivity. Spatial distribution of targets within volume is unknown and usually assumed to be uniform.

Figure 2. Conceptual illustration of the beam filling issue.

CHARACTERISTIC HEATING PROFILES

CONVECTIVE STRATIFORM HEIGHT + - + HEATING RATE

Figure 3. Characteristic heating profiles for convective and stratiform regions. Tropopause -80 TMI PR

Deep -65 convective echo top

SF -45 echo top

Temperature ° C Temperature -25

-10

Bright 0 band {

LOW MODERATE HIGH LOW MODERATE HIGH Tropopause -80 GV CLOUD Deep MODELING convective echo top -65

SF -45 echo top

Temperature ° C Temperature -25

-10

Bright 0 band {

LOW MODERATE HIGH LOW MODERATE HIGH

Figure 4. The relative interest in microphysical measurements at various altitudes by the TMI, PR, GV, and cloud modeling facets of KWAJEX. -80 C °

-25

Temperature Temperature -10

Bright 0 band

5 10 Combined priority for microphysics measurements

Figure 5. The net relative interest in microphysical measurement at various altitudes derived from Fig. 4. Wake Honolulu, 6082 1314 Hawaii Saipan 1184 Johnston Guam 205 1020 2331 851 Yap Kwajalein 427 450 699 1059 Chuuk Palau Pohnpei 542 643 Kosrae

Figure 6. Map of central Pacific showing distances in km between various islands. Distance is in km.

Taongi A. Pacific Ocean

Bikar A. R Rongelap A. a Rongerik A. t Enewotok A. Utrik A. a Bikini A. Taka A. k R Ailuk A. C Ailinginae A. a Mejit Is. h l Likiep a ik A. i Wotho A. Jemo Is. n Ujelang A. C Wotje A. Kwajalein A. h Ujae a Erikub Maloelap A. in Lae A. Aur A. N Lib Jabwot Namu A. Majuro A. Ailinglaplap A. Arno A. Jaluit A. Mili 0 150 300 km A. Knox Kili Is. A. The Namorik A. Ebon A.

Figure 7. Map of atolls within the Marshall Islands. , Marshall Islands 167°10' 167°20' 167°30' 167°40' N

NOTE: All target areas are approximate Roi Namur Ennugarret Bokonlabidoka Ennumennent Ennuebing Bikohmot Mellu Ennubirr Obella 9°20' Boggerin Boked Nukne 9°20' Oniotte Bigi Edgigen Debuu MELLU PASS Edjell Biggarenn Boggerik Gagan Bokmaruig

Ere 9°10' Bikennel Drebeiu 9°10' Baggeratjan Ja Bokaluom Ujajiivan Boken UJAJIRUKKU PASS Wojeirok Jerak Illeginni Gellinam Geghu Nell Onemak Eru Ennumet Burle Jakeru Enmat Gurer Ennugenliggelap Omelek Eller Eniwetak Kwadack 9°00' NORTH AMBO CHAN PASS 9°00' Legan Meck

Jokouij Mian Mann Bigej Torruji BIGEJ CHAN PASS Tonle Ningi Gehh ° 8°50' 8 50' Ninni Ebioaji North Loi GEA PASS Bijinkur 0 5 10 South Loi Gea Ebeye N-Miles Ennylabegan Ebijirikku SOUTH PASS Orubebbu 0 5 10

S-Miles Enubuj Kwajalein 167°10' 167°20' 167°30' 167°40'

Figure 8. Map of islands in the eastern portion of Kwajalein Atoll. Surveillance 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360 20 20

18 18

16 16 14 14

12 12

10 10

8 8 height msl (km) 6 6

4 4

2 2

0 0 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360 slant range (km) Figure 9. Range-height plot of 1¡ elevation angle surveillance scan to 380 km range. Minimum range for useable echo is 15 km. Height of freezing level (4.5 km) and nominal maximum echo top height (13 km) are indicated.

Non-Pol Volume 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 20 20

18 18

16 16

14 14

12 12

10 10 8 8 height msl (km) 6 6

4 4

2 2

0 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 slant range (km) Figure 10. Range-height plot of elevation angles in nonpolarization volume scan (Table 2) to 150 km range. Minimum range for useable echo is 15 km. Height of freezing level (4.5 km) and nominal maximum echo top height (13 km) are indicated. Dual-Pol A Volume 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 20 20

18 18 16 16

14 14 12 12

10 10

8 8 height msl (km) 6 6

4 4

2 2

0 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 slant range (km) Figure 11. As in Fig. 10 except for elevation angles in dual-polarization volume scan A (Table 2).

Dual-Pol B Volume 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 20 20

18 18 16 16

14 14 12 12

10 10 8 8 height msl (km) 6 6

4 4

2 2

0 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 slant range (km)

Figure 12. As in Fig. 10 except for elevation angles in dual-polarization volume scan B (Table 2). Aeromet rain gauges RMI rain gauges

Roi Namur

Kwajalein Atoll

y km Kwajalein

Namu Atoll

Figure 13. Map of Kwajalein -100 0 100 Atoll and neighboring atolls and islands showing location of Kwajalein GV radar and Ailinglaplap Atoll regularly received GV rain gauge data. -100 0 100 x km

800 (a) Rainfall 600

400

Rain (mm) 200

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

• (b) Average Windspeed 7 •• • • • 6 • • 5 • • • Wind Speed (m/s) 4 • Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Figure 14. Kwajalein climatological data based on records from 1945-1993. a) Monthly precipitation, average (thick line), maximum (thin line), minimum dotted line. b) Average wind speed. (Data courtesy of Aeromet Inc.) Figure 15. Monthly precipitation accumulation in mm for Kwajalein GV region during period of radar operations during August 1998 similar to TRMM GV product 3A-54. JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER

Figure 16. Average monthly precipitation in western Pacific derived from satellite SSM/I data using GPROF (Goddard Profiling Algorithm) for period 1987-1996. The 150 km radius TRMM GV area centered on Kwajalein Island is indicated by the circle in the center of the figure. (Figure courtesy of C. Kummerow and E. Nelkin.) 800 (a) 1997 600

400

Rain (mm) 200

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

800 (b) 1998 600

400

Rain (mm) 200

0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Figure 17. Recorded monthly rainfall at Kwajalein Island for 1997 and 1998. (Data courtesy of Aeromet Inc.) fraction of radar coverage area with echo > 20 dBZ fraction of radar coverage area with echo > 20 dBZ fraction of radar coverage area with echo > 20 dBZ 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2

(a)

(e) (c) 0901.00 0701.00 0901.00

0701.00 0902.00 0902.00

0703.00

0903.00 0903.00

0704.00

0904.00 • •• •••• ••• •

0904.00

0705.00 0905.00

0706.00 0905.00

0906.00

0707.00

0906.00

0907.00

0708.00

0908.00 0907.00

0709.00

0909.00

0908.00 0710.00

0910.00

0711.00

0909.00

0911.00 0712.00

0910.00

0912.00

0713.00

0911.00

0913.00

Sept 1997 0714.00

Sept 1998

July 1997

0912.00 0914.00 0715.00

0915.00 0716.00 0913.00

0717.00 0916.00

0914.00

0718.00

0917.00

0915.00

0719.00 0918.00

0916.00 0720.00 0919.00

0721.00

0917.00 0920.00

0722.00

0921.00 0918.00

0723.00

0922.00

0919.00

0724.00

0923.00

0725.00 0920.00

0924.00

0726.00

0921.00

0925.00

0727.00

0922.00

0926.00 0728.00

0927.00 0923.00 0729.00

0928.00 0730.00 0924.00

0929.00 0731.00

0925.00 0930.00 examples inFig.22areindicatedbydots(c). were notavailable.Timescorrespondingtothe Discontinuous linesindicatewhenradardata area coveredbyprecipitation>20dBZ. Figure 18. fraction of radar coverage area with echo > 20 dBZ fraction of radar coverage area with echo > 20 dBZ 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.2

(d) 0805.12 (b) 0801.00

0802.00 0806.12

0803.00

0807.12

MonthlytimeseriesoffractionalGV 0804.00

0808.12

0805.00

0809.12

0806.00

0810.12 0807.00

0811.12 0808.00

0809.00 0812.12

0810.00 0813.12

0811.00

0814.12

0812.00

0815.12

0813.00

August 1997

0816.12

Aug 1998 0814.00

0817.12 0815.00

0816.00 0818.12

0817.00 0819.12

0818.00

0820.12

0819.00

0821.12

0820.00

0822.12 0821.00

0823.12 0822.00

0823.00 0824.12

0824.00 0825.12

0825.00

0826.12

0826.00

0827.12

0827.00

0828.12 0828.00

0829.00 0829.12

0830.00 0830.12

0831.00 0831.12 KWAJ July-Sept 1997 6000

4000

2000 # hrly samples

0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 fraction of GV radar coverage area with echo > 20 dBZ

KWAJ Aug-Sept 1998 5000

3000

# hrly samples 1000 0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 fraction of GV radar coverage area with echo > 20 dBZ Figure 19. Histogram of the fraction of areal coverage of precipitation > 20 dBZ within the GV region tabulated at intervals of 5%.

Rain area cumulative distribution 100

80

60

40 cumulative freq (%)

20

0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 fraction of radar coverage area with echo > 20 dBZ Figure 20. Cumulative frequency as a function of instantaneous precipitating area. July, August, and September 1997 - thin line, August and September 1998 - heavy line. for the1998data. uncalibrated forthe1997dataandcalibrated which theseplotsarederivedwere the GV hourly coverageisgivenasapercentageof averages. of precipitatingregionscomputedfromhourly percentage ofmaximumhourlyarealfraction Figur

e 21. % of max hrly areal fraction area. 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 The absoluteareaofthemaximum 0 (a) Diurnal cycleofrelative 2 The radarreflectivitiesfrom Jul 97(uncal) Max =0.06%ofGVarea 4 6 8 11 14 17 20 23

% of max hrly areal fraction % of max hrly areal fraction 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0 0 (d) (b) 2 2 Aug 97(uncal) Max =0.05%ofGVarea Max =0.17%ofGVarea 4 4 Aug 98(cal) 6 6 8 8 11 11 14 14 17 17 20 20 23 23

% of max hrly areal fraction % of max hrly areal fraction 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0 0 (e) 2 2 Sep 97(uncal) Max =0.05%ofGVarea Max =0.08%ofGVarea 4 4 Sep 98(cal) (c) 6 6 8 8 11 11 14 14 17 17 20 20 23 23 (a)

Figure 22. (a-k) Examples of precipitation patterns at Kwajalein from September 1997. (b)

Figure 22. (continued) (c)

Figure 22. (continued) (d)

Figure 22. (continued) (e)

Figure 22. (continued) (f)

Figure 22. (continued) (g)

Figure 22. (continued) (h)

Figure 22. (continued) (i)

Figure 22. (continued) (j)

Figure 22. (continued) (k)

Figure 22. (continued)