Wisconsin Political Landscape
November, 2020
Joe Murray Wisconsin REALTORS® Association Wisconsin 2020
• Trump vs. Biden in Wisconsin: – Biden: 49.5% – Trump: 48.8% – Margin: 20,697 votes
• Congressional seats – WRA/NAR involved in all 8 seats, all 8 win: 100%
• State Senate seats – WRA involved in 15 seats, 14 wins: 93%
• State Assembly seats: – WRA involved in 96 seats, 94 wins: 98% Overview
• There was no “Blue Wave” nationally or in Wisconsin. Democrats lost seats in the Congress and failed to flip the US Senate from red to blue.
• Joe Biden didn’t have coattails and Trump did.
• Democrats dramatically outspent Republicans at the national and state level for the first time in many years.
• Divided government remains in Wisconsin: Democrat Tony Evers and a large GOP legislature.
• The WRA legislative agenda will reflect a divided government model. Marquette Law School Poll Biden - Trump 50% 49% 48% 48% 48% 47% 46% 46% 46% 44% 43% 43% 43% 42% 42% 41% 41% 40% 38% 36% May 3-7 June 14-16 Aug 4-9 Aug 30-Sep 3 Sep 30-Oct 4 Oct 21-25 +/- 4% +/- 4.3% +/- 4.2% +/- 4% +/- 4.6% +/- 4.4% Biden Trump
Source: Marquette Law School Likely Voters State Senate
Dave Hansen (D)
Patty Schachtner (D)
Pat Testin (R)
Jennifer Shilling (D)
Alberta Darling (R) State Senate
Before November 3: 19 – 14, GOP majority Post November 3: 21 – 12, GOP majority
New faces: 7 new members (5 GOP/2 Democrats)
Rob Stafsholt (R) Mary Felzkowski (R) Joan Ballweg (R) Julian Bradley (R) Eric Wimberger (R)
Kelda Roys (D) Brad Pfaff (D) State Assembly
Beth Meyers (D) Nick Milroy (D)
Pat Snyder (R) Rob Stafsholt (R)
Shannon Zimmerman (R) Joel Kitchens (R)
Treig Pronschinski (R) John Macco (R) Dave Steffen (R)
Steve Doyle (D) Jim Ott (R) - LOST Dan Knodl (R) Loren Oldenburg (R) Robyn Vining (D) Rob Hutton (R) - LOST Jessie Rodriguez (R) Todd Novak (R) State Assembly
Before November 3: 63-36, GOP majority Post November 3: 61-38, GOP majority
New faces: 16 new members (6 GOP/10 Democrats)
Clint Moses (R) Calvin Callahan (R) Alex Dallman (R) Rachel Cabral-Guevara (R)
Donna Rozar (R) Dave Armstrong (R) State Assembly continued
Sylvia Ortiz-Velez (D) Dora Drake (D) Sara Rodriguez (D) Supreme Moore Deb Andraca (D) Omakunde (D)
Sue Conley (D) Samba Baldeh (D) Lee Snodgrass (D) Francesca Hong (D) Kristina Shelton (D) 3rd Congressional District
WINNER Ron Kind (D) Derrick Van Orden (R) Obama 2012: 55% Trump 2016: 49% Composite: 50% GOP
Notes: • Republican opponent: Derrick Van Orden; retired Navy SEAL • Cook Political Report: Lean Democratic • Inside Elections: Likely Democratic • Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic