PRESIDENT'smessage NWA's 26Th ANNUAL MEETING ANNUAL
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Predicting Supercell Motion Using a New Hodograph Technique
FEBRUARY 2000 BUNKERS ET AL. 61 Predicting Supercell Motion Using a New Hodograph Technique MATTHEW J. BUNKERS* AND BRIAN A. KLIMOWSKI NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Of®ce, Rapid City, South Dakota JON W. Z EITLER NOAA/NWS Houston/Galveston Weather Forecast Of®ce, Dickinson, Texas RICHARD L. THOMPSON NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, Norman, Oklahoma MORRIS L. WEISMAN NCAR/Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, Boulder, Colorado (Manuscript received 16 December 1998, in ®nal form 13 September 1999) ABSTRACT A physically based, shear-relative, and Galilean invariant method for predicting supercell motion using a hodograph is presented. It is founded on numerous observational and modeling studies since the 1940s, which suggest a consistent pattern to supercell motion exists. Two components are assumed to be largely responsible for supercell motion: (i) advection of the storm by a representative mean wind, and (ii) propagation away from the mean wind either toward the right or toward the left of the vertical wind shearÐdue to internal supercell dynamics. Using 290 supercell hodographs, this new method is shown to be statistically superior to existing methods in predicting supercell motion for both right- and left-moving storms. Other external factors such as interaction with atmospheric boundaries and orography can have a pronounced effect on supercell motion, but these are dif®cult to quantify prior to storm development using only a hodograph. 1. Introduction some form of severe weather (i.e., tornadoes, ¯ash ¯ooding, hail $1.9 cm diameter, wind gusts $25 m s21, a. Background or wind damage) during their lifetime (e.g., Burgess and Although supercells1 have been given considerable Lemon 1991). -
Severe Local Storms Forecasting *
WEATHER AND FORECASTING VOLUME 7 Severe Local Storms Forecasting * ROBERT H. JOHNS National Severe Storms Forecast Center, Kansas City, Missouri CHARLES A. DOSWELL III National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, Oklahoma (Manuscript received 11 May 1992, in final form 13 August 1992) ABSTRACT Knowledge of severe local storms has been increasing rapidly in recent years as a result of both observational studies and numerical modeling experiments. This paper reviews that knowledge as it relates to development of new applications for forecasting of severe local storms. Many of these new applications are based on physical understanding of processes taking place on the storm scale and thus allow forecasters to become less dependent on empirical relationships. Refinements in pattern recognition and severe weather climatology continue to be of value to the operational severe local storms forecasters, however. Current methodology for forecasting severe local storms at the National Severe Storms Forecast Center is described. Operational uses of new forecast applications, new “real-time” data sources (such as wind profilers and Doppler radars), and improved numerical model products are discussed. 1. Introduction first part of this forecasting process, focusing on the relationship between the severe local storm and its Convective storms produce a wide variety of weather environment. Since the primary forecast product of SELS phenomena that might be considered “severe” (a hazard is the severe weather watch (see Ostby 1993 for a complete to life and property). For purposes of this discussion, description of SELS forecast products), that is the primary however, only those convectively induced phenomena topic within this paper. Other SELS forecast products will forecast by the Severe Local Storms Unit (SELS) of the be mentioned as well, however. -
President'smessage
NWA NEWSLETTER NO. 07 –05 MAY 2007 In total, the Council meets for about eight hours during PRESIDENT’S MESSAGE the Annual Meeting, and much of this time is devoted to a pre-determined agenda. by Alan Gerard Conversely, the Midyear Meeting is totally devoted to This month more or less marks the middle of the year Council business and discussion, enabling the Council to between Annual Meetings of the National Weather delve more deeply into subjects and to have extended Association. As such, the Council will be holding its discussions about topics critical to the future of the NWA. Midyear Meeting on 18 - 19 May in Raleigh, North The Council meets for about twelve to fifteen hours over a Carolina, the home of the new central office of our two-day period, and can spend as much time as needed organization. The Midyear Meeting is the first opportunity examining a number of items. In recent years, at Midyear for new Council members to meet the rest of the Council Meetings the Council has discussed items such as the and for the new Council as a whole to really begin work future of NWA publications, NWA marketing and on those tasks we wish to accomplish during this year. In membership, and long-term financial planning. Many of this message, I will provide background information on these subjects will be discussed again this year at Raleigh, the Midyear Meeting, and how your Council goes about along with some new topics including the role of the business of helping to steer and guide the NWA. -
Storm Fury on the Plains Spring Spotter Newsletter P a G E 3
N a t i o n a l Weather Service Storm Fury on the Wichita, KS Inside this issue: Plains Historic 1 Spring Spotter Newsletter A p r i l 2 0 1 3 Snowstorm Buries central and Historic Snowstorm Buries Central and south central Kansas South Central Kansas Annual 4 By: Eric Schminke Tornado Winter 2012-13 had been relatively quiet for central, south central and southeast Information Kansas until February 20th when Old Man Winter and his mythical sidekick, the Meet Jim 6 Abominable Snowman, went into action. Caruso That morning, a strengthening cyclone (Red L in Figure 1) was situated over Fire Weather 7 southern Utah, and Nevada. Information As the day progressed, the winter storm moved slowly east toward then over the Do you know 9 southern Rockies. As time evolved, moisture-rich east southeast flow in the why the lower atmosphere steadily increased, spreading colder, sub-freezing air across sirens sound the Great Plains. As the upper-level cyclone moved east over southern Arizona in your the upper-level directional flow began to diverge over the Central Plains to pro- community? mote increasing deep layer ascent over Oklahoma and southern Kansas. The stage had been set for a winter storm that would prove historic for most of Kan- Despite 10 Recent sas. Precipita- South central Kansas was the first to get snowed upon with 2-4 inch accumula- tion, Drought tions over primarily Harper, Kingman, Sumner, and Sedgwick counties. By late Continues afternoon, the snow had spread due north Winter 15 2012-2013 primarily along and Highlights west of I-135 where accumulations had Severe 18 reached 5 inches in Weather Reporting several locations.