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s p O n s O r e d b Y t H e H e A r t la n d I n s t I t u t e M A Y 2 1 – 2 3 , 2 0 1 2 · CHICAGO, IL C o n f e r e n C e p r o g r a m s e v e n t h international c o n f e r e n c e o n c l i m a t e c h a n g e <Based on 12pt ITC Caslon 224 bold IDEASh o THAT s t EMPOWER PEOPLE <Based on 7pt ITC Caslon 224 medium horizontally scalled to 105% <Based on 12pt ITC Caslon 224 bold IDEAS THAT EMPOWER PEOPLE <Based on 7pt Frutiger; light horizontally scalled to 105% <Based on 12pt ITC Caslon 224 bold IDEAS THAT EMPOWER PEOPLE <Based on 7pt Frutiger; light horizontally scalled to 105% <Based on 12pt ITC Caslon 224 bold IDEASc o THAT s p EMPOWER o n s o PEOPLE r s <Based on 7pt ITC Caslon 224 medium horizontally scalled to 105% 60 Plus Association Citizens’ Alliance for Responsible Energy International Climate and Environmental Change Assessment Acton Institute Climate Realists Project (ICECAP) African Centre for Advocacy and Human Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow Junk Science Development Competitive Enterprise Institute Lavoisier Group Alternate Solutions Institute Doctors for Disaster Preparedness Leadership Institute American Conservative Union Economic Thinking Liberty Institute Americans for Prosperity Foundation Energy Makes America Great, Inc. John Locke Foundation Americans for Tax Reform European Institute for Climate and Manhattan Project 2 American Tradition Institute Energy George C. Marshall Institute Australian Libertarian Society Freedom Foundation of Minnesota Media Research Center Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance Free To Choose Network National Center for Policy Analysis Austrian Economics Center Frontier Centre for Public Policy New Zealand Climate Science Coalition Ayn Rand Center for Individual Rights Frontiers of Freedom Oregon Institute of Science and Beacon Hill Institute Grassroot Institute of Hawaii Medicine Berlin Manhattan Institute Heritage Foundation Power for USA for Free Enterprise Ice Age Now Reason Foundation Capital Research Center Illinois Coal Association Science and Environmental Policy Carbon Sense Coalition Project Independent Institute Cathay Institute for Public Affairs Science and Public Policy Institute Institute for Liberty Center for the Defense of Free TS August Enterprise Institute for Private Enterprise Virginia Scientists and Engineers for Center for Industrial Progress Instituto Liberdade Energy and the Environment Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide International Climate Science Coalition and Global Change 2 s e v e n t h international c o n f e r e n c e o n c l i m a t e c h a n g e from your host Welcome to the Seventh International Conference on Climate Change! Thank you for joining us for two-and-a-half days of discussion and debate over the causes and consequences of climate change, the most important and controversial topic of our time. I hope you enjoy the presentations and learn something new. Real Science This year’s program features approximately 60 scientists and policy experts speaking at plenary sessions and on panels discussing what real science is telling us about climate change. They will discuss the latest discoveries in climate history and physics, extreme weather events, the all-important question of attribution (what causes climate change?), and the impacts of climate change. JoSeph L. Bast President While we have a stellar line-up of speakers, I am disappointed once again by the refusal of scientists THe HeArtland Institute who support the predictions of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to attend and defend their position. More than 30 “warmists” were invited to present at this event. All refused. If it is fair to judge a scientific theory by whether its advocates show up to defend it, then the theory of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming is a failure. Real Choices The debate over climate change is charged with partisan fever because it affects important public policies. These are the real choices we face as taxpayers, consumers, and voters. TABLE OF CONTENTS The IPCC’s science reports are used to defend policies that impose substantial costs on consumers and Schedule . 4 threaten to destroy hundreds of thousands of jobs. Fear of “global warming” is invoked to justify a Book Signings . 6 litany of government interventions, everything from “smart growth” and organic gardening to corporate subsidies and income redistribution. Speakers . 8 Speakers at this conference address these choices, in particular the promise and limits of renewable Cosponsors . 16 energy, the health effects of climate change, and the economics of adaptation and emissions control. Judging by the press and statements made by environmental advocacy groups, asking questions about real science and real choices in the climate change debate is so dangerous that it ought to be forbidden. According to the mainstream media, this very conference isn’t occurring! But we are in fact meeting, and asking questions. And we are being heard all around the world, thanks to the Internet. We thank you and our 59 cosponsors for the courage to attend and for helping to make this meeting possible. I hope you enjoy the conference, and I welcome your feedback and suggestions for future events. Sincerely, Joseph L. Bast President The Heartland Institute 3 s e v e n t h international c o n f e r e n c e o n c l i m a t e c h a n g e Program All panels take place in the Williford Ballroom, Third Floor, except concurrent panels 6 and 10, which take place in the Continental Ballroom. MOnday, May 21 tuesday, May 22, 2012 7:30 am – 5:30 pm Registration on the main level by the Continental 7:30 am – 5:30 pm Registration on the main level by the Continental Ballroom Ballroom 7:30 am – 9:00 pm Exhibit area open 7:30 am – 9:00 pm Exhibit area open 8:00 am BREAKFAST 8:00 am – 10:00 am BREAKFAST Welcome Joseph Bast, president, The Heartland Institute The NASA Letter Writers James M. Taylor, senior fellow, The Heartland Institute Moderator – Leighton Steward Keynote – Joe Bastardi Harrison Schmitt, Ph.D. Walter Cunningham 9:30 am – 10:00 am BREAK Harold Doiron 10:00 am – 11:00 am PANEL 1 – CLimate HistoRy and PHySics Thomas Wysmuller Moderator – James M. Taylor 10:00 am – 10:30 am BREAK Nir Shaviv, Ph.D. Howard Hayden, Ph.D. 10:30 am – 11:30 am PANEL 5 – AttributioN: What Causes Don Easterbrook, Ph.D. CLimate ChangE? Moderator – Stanley Goldenberg 11:00 am – 12:15 pm PANEL 2 – Health and Welfare Willie Soon, Ph.D Moderator – Dennis Avery S. Fred Singer, Ph.D. John Dunn, M.D. Tom Segalstad, Ph.D. Jerry Arnett, M.D. Paul Driessen PANEL 6 – MeasuriNg CLimate ChangE and Its Todd Wynn impacts – 1 (concurrent session taking place in the Continental Ballroom) 12:15 pm – 12:30 pm BREAK Moderator – Steve Goreham 12:30 pm – 2:00 pm LUNCH Anthony Watts Climate Change and the Blogosphere Richard Keen, Ph.D. Moderator – James M. Taylor Willis Eschenbach, Ph.D. Larry Bell 11:30 am – 12:00 pm BREAK Tom Harris Marc Morano 12:00 pm – 1:30 pm LUNCH James M. Taylor, senior fellow, The Heartland Institute 2:00 pm – 2:30 pm BREAK U.S. Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner 2:30 pm – 3:30 pm PANEL 3 – impact oF CLimate ChangE 1:30 pm – 2:00 pm BREAK Moderator – Tom Harris Craig Idso, Ph.D. 2:00 pm – 3:00 pm PANEL 7 – MeasuriNg CLimate ChangE Craig Loehle, Ph.D. and Its impacts – 2 Patrick Michaels, Ph.D. Moderator – Jay Lehr, Ph.D. Bob Carter, Hon. FRSNZ 3:30 pm – 4:30 pm PANEL 4 – ExtremE Weather Events Madhav Khandekar, Ph.D. Moderator – John Dunn, M.D. Dennis Avery, Ph.D. William Gray, Ph.D. Stanley Goldenberg 3:00 pm – 4:15 pm PANEL 8 – Limits oF Renewable Energy Anthony Lupo, Ph.D. moderator – Tom Harris Peter Ferrara, J.d. 4:30 pm – 5:30 pm BREAK donn dears Reception/book sales-signing in the exhibit area (cash bar) John droz Patrick Michaels and Larry Bell Ken Haapala, m.S. 5:30 pm – 8:00 pm DINNER 4:15 pm – 5:30 pm BREAK James M. Taylor – Real Science Reception/book sales-signing in the exhibit area (cash bar) Joseph Bast – Real Choices Brian Sussman and S. Fred Singer Hon. Vaclav Klaus, Ph.D. 5:30 pm – 8:00 pm DINNER KEyNote 8:00 pm AdJoURN Jim Lakely, director of communications, The Heartland institute Brian Sussman – global Whining 8:00 pm AdJoURN 4 s e v e n t h international c o n f e r e n c e o n c l i m a t e c h a n g e Program All panels take place in the Williford Ballroom, Third Floor, except concurrent panels 6 and 10, which take place in the Continental Ballroom. Wednesday, May 23, 2012 7:30 am – 2:00 pm Registration on the main level by the Continental Ballroom 7:30 am – 3:00 pm Exhibit area open 8:00 am – 9:30 am BREAKFAST Jim Lakely, director of communications, The Heartland Institute Roger Helmer, MEP 9:30 am – 10:00 am BREAK 10:00 am – 11:00 am PANEL 9 – SoCial and ECoNomiC Factors Moderator – Dennis Avery Myron Ebell, J.D., Julian Morris, M.S., J.D. Christopher Horner, J.D. PANEL 10 – CommunicatiNg CLimate ChangE (concurrent session taking place in the Continental Ballroom) Moderator – Ken Haapala Jay Lehr, Ph.D.