Finance Committee

Date: 13 December 2018

Item: TfL Business Plan 2018

This paper was published with less than five clear working days’ public notice in accordance with Standing Order 33. The Committee Chair has agreed, in accordance with Section 100B(4)(b) of the Local Government Act 1972, that this item be accepted as a late paper as the content of the Business Plan had to be reviewed in light of the funding agreement for Limited announced by Government and TfL on 10 December 2018, after the papers for this meeting were published.

This paper will be considered in public

1 Summary

1.1 The Business Plan 2018 sets out TfL’s plans for the five years from 2019/20 to 2023/24.

1.2 Under Standing Orders, the authority sought in this paper is reserved to the Board. On 21 November 2018 the Board delegated to the Finance Committee authority to approve those matters reserved to the Board in relation to the approval of the Business Plan.

2 Recommendation

2.1 The Committee is asked to note the paper, and in accordance with the delegation granted by the Board on 21 November 2018, to approve the TfL Business Plan 2018.

3 TfL Business Plan 2018

3.1 The 2018 Business Plan sets out how TfL will deliver an efficient, affordable and modern transport network for , and focus its commitment to implementing the Mayor’s Transport Strategy to make London a fairer, greener, healthier and more prosperous city.

3.2 TfL has had unprecedented cuts to its operational funding from the government over the last five years, with an average reduction of £700m per annum. Since April 2018, TfL has become one of the only transport authorities in the world not to receive a direct Government operational grant for day to day running costs.

3.3 This is in addition to managing a number of financial challenges. A subdued economy has slowed down ridership and reduced fare revenue, a trend affecting the country. Whilst TfL’s overall fares revenue is just above forecast for this year, since the 2016 Business plan the five year forecast is approximately £2.1bn lower than expected, due to the wider state of the economy.

3.4 The recent announcement by Crossrail Limited that there will be a delay to the opening of the Elizabeth line has also meant that TfL needs to pay for the additional capital investment, as well as absorb the impact of lost fare revenue. This is expected to be approximately £200m in 2019/20, rising to potentially £600m across the period of the plan, compared to last year’s Business Plan. This assumption will be revised once the new management of Crossrail Limited have completed their work to develop a robust and credible plan for the opening of the Elizabeth line.

3.5 Despite this, TfL is making major progress with efficiency savings ahead of target, and the net cost of operations for 2018/19 forecast to be 20 per cent better than budget, reducing the current operating deficit by more than £200m. This is as a result of tight financial management and will help mitigate some of the revenue impacts from the delay to the opening of the Elizabeth line.

3.6 TfL has a proven track record of delivering against its savings targets – the over-delivery of savings in 2016/17 meant it reduced year-on-year operating costs by more than £150m, and further reduced like-for-like costs in 2017/18. Prior to 2016/17, TfL’s operating costs had increased every year.

3.7 Across the five year plan, TfL will invest in vital improvements including:

(a) completion of the signalling upgrade on the Circle, District, Hammersmith & City and Metropolitan lines, which will add 33 per cent capacity across the four lines by the end of 2023. This will increase the service to 32 trains per hour through the central London sections, meaning customers will wait less than two minutes for a train during peak times. TfL will also begin the modernisation of the deep Tube lines, beginning with the introduction of new longer, more spacious and comfortable walkthrough trains on the Piccadilly line from 2024; (b) continuing to progress major station upgrades to the Tube network, such as at Elephant & Castle and Holborn stations, completing work at Bank station, as well as opening the Northern Line extension to Battersea, which will support 25,000 jobs and 20,000 new homes; (c) making more stations fully accessible across London, including Finsbury Park, Hanger Lane and Wimbledon Park – meaning that more than a third of the Tube network will be step-free by 2020. TfL has also recommended 21 and National Rail stations across London to receive Access for All funding from Government to improve connectivity for customers with accessibility needs; (d) investing £2.3bn on transformative projects to make London’s streets safer, better places for everyone. Dangerous junctions like Old Street, Vauxhall Gyratory and Highbury Corner will be made safer for all road users and new Liveable Neighbourhoods will be created in local areas across outer London, helping cut polluting car use and encouraging walking and cycling. New high-quality cycle routes in Greenwich, Hackney and Hounslow will also be accelerated to connect communities and help Londoners to live active, healthier lives; (e) sustained investment for key transport improvements across London’s boroughs to help them deliver the Mayor’s Transport Strategy, including actions to reduce traffic, boost safety and increase active travel in their local areas; (f) continuing to make vital radical air quality and environmental improvements across London, including the implementation of the from April 2019 and making the entire bus fleet Euro VI compliant by September 2020. From October 2020, the Low Emission Zone, which covers the whole of London, will also be strengthened to Euro VI – meaning that all buses, coaches and lorries across the capital will need to meet this standard to avoid paying the daily charge. In October 2021 the Ultra Low Emission Zone will be extended to the North and South Circular roads for all vehicles. By the end of 2019 TfL will introduce a further five Low Emission Bus Zones, bringing the total number to 12 and cleaning up the air in high streets across the capital. Through these and other far-reaching measures TfL will continue to play a key role in cleaning up London’s toxic air and addressing the public health crisis that it has caused; (g) introducing fleets of new trains on the London Overground and (DLR), which will increase capacity and support jobs, homes and economic growth across swathes of London. From next year, construction will also begin on building an extension of the London Overground to Barking Riverside, which will support 10,800 new homes being created on one of Europe’s largest brownfield sites; (h) continuing to develop plans to build and extend the Bakerloo line, the DLR and networks in the next 20 years, which will support the creation of thousands of new homes and jobs across London and the south east; (i) bringing into service the Elizabeth line, which will transform journeys across London and out to Reading and Shenfield, with quicker and easier journeys and mark a step-change in accessibility with 41 step-free stations; and (j) unlocking land for the development of new homes and actively making smarter use of TfL assets – including improved retail units and innovative digital advertising – to generate greater long-term revenue.

List of appendices to this report:

Appendix 1: TfL Business Plan 2018 slides Appendix 2: TfL Business Plan 2018

List of Background Papers: None

Contact Officer: Simon Kilonback, Chief Finance Officer Number: 020 3054 8941 Email: [email protected]

TfL Business Plan Appendix 1

Finance Committee 13 December 2018

1 Our new Passenger income 3% Our Budget assumed a 3% Business Plan is growth in passenger income £4,774m £4,763m built on strong Despite Crossrail delays, we forecast to be very close to achieving this, due to Tube budgetary demand better than expected offset by performance £4,643m weaker than forecast demand in buses.

Over £200m better than 17/18 Budget Forecast Budget this year sets up to face the challenges of Net cost of operations Our Budget assumed a worsening in our net cost of operations of £323m. 19/20 and the rest of the However: Business Plan 17/18 Budget Forecast On track to beat our Budget £246m by this amount

(£645m) Better Overall position better than (£722m) like-for- last year if £228m of General (£891m) like Grant in 17/18 excluded (£968m) £228m general 2 grant Section 1 The challenge

The challenge 1 Our approach 2 How we'll do it Getting the basics right 3 Transforming our core 4 A disciplined capital plan 5 Growing our business 6 Managing the risks 7 Conclusion 8

3 We are adjusting TfL’s level of General Grant to the loss of government grant £1,094m £842m

£628m The current operating £447m deficit is due to the loss of £228m £1bn of General Grant - equivalent to 17% of our 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 current operating income. We have a clear plan to break even by 2022/23 The operating grant is now zero, In 13/14, TfL used this however public transport service £1.1bn operating grant to volume is higher than in 13/14, offset the cost of day-to- and we are progressing towards a day services. sustainable operating account

4 Our passenger Declining transport demand Lower population growth Reduction in our demand income is down Average trip rates (Londoners) Annual change in population Annual growth in journeys LU 1.7% but long-term 2.50 Buses growth is forecast 2.13

Passenger income is 50% 0.6% of our revenue. 2013/14 2017/18 08/09 16/17 12/13 17/18 22/23 We are adjusting to recent dampening of demand, Average Londoner makes 15 per Short-term growth is slowing Year on year growth has declined but long term demand for cent fewer transport trips than Net migration is now negative in the past few years. four years a go. transport is still expected Fewer young Londoners (16-24) However, Tube journeys are This is mirrored by similar national than in 2009 returning to growth – we have just to substantially grow trends. had our busiest ever week. Population is still predicted to grow from 8.8 million to 10.5 Bus demand is still in decline but million is forecast to stabilise.

5 Crossrail is Original Elizabeth line phasing delayed – but May 2018 Dec 2018 May 2019 Dec 2019 will bring huge Paddington and Central section Paddington - Shenfield – Paddington Reading & Heathrow T5 benefits Heathrow Terminal 4 Abbey Wood through running connected

Open Delayed – date to be confirmed The Elizabeth line will increase London’s rail Net operating impact of Elizabeth line on our plan (income and cost) capacity by 10 per cent. 19/20 20/21 21/22 Crossrail’s delay is extremely disappointing but we are committed to (£0.1bn) ensuring this project is (£0.2bn) completed as soon and as c.£0.6bn worse in next three years, mainly due safely as possible. (£0.3bn) to delayed passenger income

6 We need a clear DfT highways maintenance funding 2018/19 operating costs for streets funding source South West £269m for roads £600m South East £80m indirect operating cost North West £40m London receives negligible renewals East of England £480m government funding to direct operating cost maintain its roads, leading East Midlands to a significant deficit that £317m has to be funded from West Midlands other services / income. Yorkhire and Humber A solution to this congested, underfunded North East network is needed. London £20m Income Costs

7 Section 2 Our approach

The challenge 1 Our approach 2 How we'll do it Getting the basics right 3 Transforming our core 4 A disciplined capital plan 5 Growing our business 6 Managing the risks 7 Conclusion 8

8 We plan to break TfL net cost of operations even in 2022/23 Net cost of operations In 18/19, our net cost of operations is half of what it If General Grant removed was in 15/16, if grant is excluded

£500m

£300m

We have moved back our £100m forecast for breaking even (£100m) by one year to 2022/23. (£300m) (£500m) This is due to lower (£700m) demand forecast for our (£900m) services and the delay in (£1,100m) the Elizabeth line. If our (£1,300m) (£1,500m) approach proves overly 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 cautious, we may still Our efficiency is better than the headline improvement as previous break even in 2021/22 years were bolstered by the General Grant, which we no longer receive 9 Key rail modes 2018 Plan Passenger journeys: comparison of recent plans still growing but 2017 Plan 2016 Plan at a slower rate Underground Buses Rail

1,600m 2,600m 450m

1,500m 2,400m 400m Tube and Rail journeys will 1,400m 2,200m 350m grow significantly over the 1,300m 2,000m 1,200m 1,800m 300m Plan. However, compared 2015/16 2018/19 2021/22 2015/16 2018/19 2021/22 2015/16 2018/19 2021/22 to last year’s plan Rail Slower growth based on Demand in line with last year Continuation of current growth is slower reflecting updated information trend. We have responded by current trends and modernising the network. subdued economic growth forecasts. journey reduction by journey growth by journey growth by 2023/24 ▲5% ▼8% 2023/24 ▲13% 2023/24

10 How we will get What changes between 18/19 and 22/23 there 18/19 (£722m)

Renewals (£210m) Building back to steady state

Financing (£146m) Reflects £2bn planned borrowing

Grants and others (£76m) Includes business rates /group items The modernisation of the Underground and Buses (£32m) Restructured network operation of the Elizabeth Rail £8m Maintain break even line are the largest Other operations £76m Break even contributors to our Back office £97m 30% reduction financial sustainability. Comm. Dev. £169m Growth vehicles The chart shows the LU £478m Modernisation change in our new plan Elizabeth line £502m Significant surplus once operational between 18/19 and 22/23. 22/23 £144m

11 We will maintain TfL cash balance (excluding Crossrail account) a resilient cash £3.0bn position £2.5bn

£2.0bn

We are aiming to hold a £1.5bn cash balance equivalent to £1.0bn 60 – 90 days worth of expenditure. £0.5bn

- 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24

We will rebuild our This high cash balance reserves through was all allocated to breaking even and enhancing the network investing prudently

12 We will diversify TfL’s changing funding mix (excluding Crossrail) and grow our 4% 1% 9% income 8% 16% 8%

8% 13/14 50% 18/19 51% 19% 23/24 38% Fares will play an 64% 24% increasingly important role, however we are choosing to grow and diversify our commercial Fares Grants Other income Property/assets Borrowing income to increase our Fares will grow Loss of General Charging and One off benefit in 23/24 is first year from half to two Grant already commercial income 18/19 from TfL is not planning resilience. thirds of income – impacted. doubles in Elizabeth line fleet to borrow. making us more Remaining grant importance to us sale/leaseback will exposed to changes does not grow at over the plan (see not be repeated in the economy rate required section 6)

13 We will deliver Increase in daily trips by 2041 to achieve the 80% the Mayor’s 2041 target: Car - strategy 80% Walking 1.3m mode share Cycling 1.4m

Public transport 2.9m The financial goals above have a purpose – to allow us to efficiently direct our MTS outcomes resources towards achieving the Mayor’s Transport Strategy

Sustainable Active Safe Efficient Green Connected Accessible Quality & unlocking

Healthy Streets & Healthy Good 14 Good Public Transport People Growth Section 3 Getting the basics right

The challenge 1 Our approach 2 How we'll do it Getting the basics right 3 Transforming our core 4 A disciplined capital plan 5 Growing our business 6 Managing the risks 7 Conclusion 8

15 Controlling our Changes in TfL’s operating cost: 15/16 to 17/18 (£143m) £542m day-to-day costs (£274m) £6,240m £6,332m (£33m)

Explained below The initial phase of Transformation delivered annualised savings of 15/16 Growth Inflation One off / Savings 17/18 £542m by the end of exceptional 2017/18, from operating costs model changes and driving LU cost control Surface LU maintenance £110m £55m £20m better value through our (inc. headcount) Transformation modernisation contracts £542m Professional LU 'Fit for the Commercial £95m £50m £20m Services changes Future Stations' Development

saved since Bus tender Tech & Data op Surface £60m £45m programme and £20m model / contracts Investment Prog. 15/16 service reductions 16 Delivering more TfL headcount (full time equivalents) Includes a 13% reduction with fewer 31,213 in senior management people 29,190 28,456

In the past two years, headcount has been reduced through our Transformation 15/16 16/17 17/18 programmes. Over our new Plan, we will reduce back and middle already saved since 15/16 – and keeps office costs by 30%. delivering £111m 30 reviewed, covering £209m every year after (from 10,000 roles £87m one-off investment) areas 17 Budget outturn Passenger income Our Budget assumed a 3% 3% growth in passenger income £4,774m £4,763m Despite Crossrail delays, we forecast to be very close to achieving this, due to Tube demand better than expected offset by £4,643m weaker that forecast demand in buses.

Over £200m better than Budget this year sets up to 17/18 Budget Forecast face the challenges of 19/20 and the rest of the Net cost of operations Our Budget assumed a worsening in our net cost of operations of £323m. Business Plan However: 17/18 Budget Forecast On track to beat our Budget £246m by this amount

(£645m) Better Overall position better than (£722m) like-for- last year if £228m of General (£891m) like Grant in 17/18 excluded (£968m) £228m general 18 grant Going further in Changes in TfL’s operating cost: 17/18 to 22/23 £119m our cost £818m £958m £990m £7,209m reduction £6,240m

Our operating costs grow over the plan but this is only due to growth in our 17/18 Growth Inflation OneOne off off costs / Savings 22/23 services – Elizabeth line, exceptional ULEZ, Overground costs

ULTRA LOW our operating costs EMISSION ZONE the main driver will be this much behind increased lower in 22/23 than costs is introducing £140m 17/18 on a like-for- ELIZABETH LINE new services like basis

19 Section 4 Transforming our core

The challenge 1 Our approach 2 How we'll do it Getting the basics right 3 Transforming our core 4 A disciplined capital plan 5 Growing our business 6 Managing the risks 7 Conclusion 8

20 A clear target for Combined each division £300m surplus subsidy of £850m on Commercial on buses and Development streets

We are pushing every part Affordable of our business to be Double the capital plan with affordable, including surplus from the sufficient cutting costs in our back Tube office so we can protect renewals front-line outcomes

Break even on rail 30% reduction in and other back office cost operations

21 Mitigating the impact of the £1.4bn capital grant from GLA (made up of £1.3bn loan from DfT – paid back over 10 years using MCIL – and £100m cash Crossrail delay Construction contribution from the GLA costs £750m loan facility from the DfT to TfL if capital grant fully utilised.

We are working very hard c.£600m impact on Business Plan (net of all revenue and on reducing the financial operating cost impacts). and customer impact of Operating Pursue implementation of Reading to Paddington services ahead the delayed opening of the of completion of the Elizabeth Line to partially mitigate revenue account central section loss Revenue lost mitigation via business rates repurposing, accelerated savings and working capital improvements

Dedicated Expertise and leadership capacity diverted to Crossrail to ensure issues are fully understood and project is under resources control. Mark Wild appointed Chief Executive of Crossrail

22 Doubling the The Tube has embarked on a significant modernisation programme to surplus from the make the Underground a more efficient service and a fairer place to Tube work. Improving our service will attract riders and grow income.

Direct operating surplus/(cost) 2019 Beyond Reduce back and middle office New organisational structures £1.41bn Maintenance efficiency drive Reduce management layers Eliminate duplication Improved ways of working

How is the £700m surplus used?

£0.54bn LU Renewals: Like for like asset replacements to keep the Tube

£300m going 18/19 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 £400m Other operating account Offsetting financing costs (mostly from previous Tube investment) and loss-making services 23 Right sizing the Bus deficit The bus operating deficit will bus network £680m £723m £699m soon rise above £700m for the first time in TfL’s history. We £445m must make sure that we use this money to deliver a modern, Direct operating surplus/(cost) 08/09 12/13 20/21 23/24 efficient bus service.

17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 Initiatives

Efficiencies in (£0.64bn) Tackle fare evasion contracting process

Reduce service, where No deaths or serious (£0.70bn) demand has fallen the injuries by 2030 most Boost service to Ultra low emissions support mode share fleet by Sept 2020 24 target Developing policy and Our roads are congested and air quality is a key Mayoral initiative. We need long-term solutions to the problems of excess road demand funding solutions and insufficient funding. for roads Direct operating surplus/(cost) Road charging changes 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24

1.ULEZ in c. London 2019 2. Removal of PHV CC exemption ULEZ improvements are Euro VI LEZ standard for heavy focused on improving air 2020 vehicles quality. We do not classify this as road income

ULEZ expansion to N/S 2021 Circular

(£0.19bn) (£0.19bn) Key proposal in the Mayors Next Generation Road User Beyond Transport Strategy to Charging achieving 80% mode share 25 A lean back and middle office 30% reduction to our back and middle office functions by 2021/2022 30% on top of 20% reduction already made in these Direct operating surplus/(cost) functions

17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 A new approach to cost reduction We have previously focused on 'vertical', divisional org change Now focused on end-to-end process and structural integration 'across' the organisation (£0.43bn) Example: Business Services (£0.52bn) Bringing together transactional elements of Finance and Overall reduction less than 30% due to fixed costs HR to standardise processes

26 Section 5 A disciplined capital plan

The challenge 1 Our approach 2 How we'll do it Getting the basics right 3 Transforming our core 4 A disciplined capital plan 5 Growing our business 6 Managing the risks 7 Conclusion 8

27 How we Categorising projects: prioritised our Critical Needed to maintain current safety level; £1.4bn plan or legally required to be safe and operable Projects most aligned to Mayoral and MTS Central outcomes and central to our strategy Average annual new Desirable Projects contingent on funding availability capital investment over We prioritised our capital Business Plan programme to protect Projects that could be deprioritised and are Deprioritise ‘Critical’ and ‘Central’ more discretionary in nature investments, while shaping our organisation Setting ourselves up to better control our Plan £600m to better control projects Clear and New Major Reviewing our Reviewing end- rigorous Projects Finance commercial to-end prioritisation Directorate approach investment delivery Average annual capital renewals over Business Plan

28 Capital plan timeline

2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 ULEZ in central London Northern line extension Barking Riverside extension We will continue to deliver 8 major cycle routes in construction Central London TLRN 20mph ULEZ to N/S Circular one of Europe’s largest Highbury Corner 15 more step-free Tube stations Vauxhall Cross capital investment programme, with significant milestones each year of the Business Plan. This will improve 2022/23 2023/24 Ongoing transport and attract new Bank station upgrade First new Piccadilly line train Liveable Neighbourhoods customers 65% reduction in road KSIs target Elephant & Castle station upgrade Rotherhithe-Canary Wharf Four Lines Modernisation Holborn upgrade commences New DLR and LO trains Silvertown Tunnel

29 Crossrail 2 & BLE development We have been We will be making the case to central government for funding important long-term schemes realistic about long term commitments

We are committed to delivering the major schemes for London Piccadilly line re- Bakerloo line Crossrail 2 outlined in the MTS, signalling extension / upgrade subject to funding being availablle. Annual averages, in 2017 constant prices £5.1bn £5.0bn approximate annual Our Capital Strategy, £3.4bn TfL investment to part of the GLA £2.2bn deliver MTS through Budget, shows our to late 2030s: £3.3bn ambition to invest £4bn of enhancements through to 2038 Yr Yr Yr Yr plus renewals 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 30 Renewals Line Upgrades / Enhancements Line Extensions Crossrail2 Section 6 Growing our business

The challenge 1 Our approach 2 How we'll do it Getting the basics right 3 Transforming our core 4 A disciplined capital plan 5 Growing our business 6 Managing the risks 7 Conclusion 8

31 Property: a new direction London’s leading operator and owner of build-to-rent Ambition

? Growing: Undersupply of housing, trend towards rental £30m - £50m amongst younger individuals Market

£1m One of largest land holders in London, with sites integrated Current Ambition into transport links and we play a key role in London Our USP development planning so know how to develop successfully.

32 Media: transforming our The best partner to promote & understand business in advertising London Ambition estate

? £175m - £200m Growing: Data increasingly critical to retail, finance and logistics £140m Market

One of the few fully immersive advertising environments. We Current Ambition are the primary source for data about London's traffic, growth Our USP and footfall and have the analytical capacity to package it

33 Retail: A growing presence across London A top-five player in convenience and small retail Ambition

? Growing in our sub-sector: As high streets and big units £50m - £75m suffer, smaller units in high-footfall locations buck the trend Market

£25m

We can link small units in busy locations with accurate data Current Ambition on market size and demographics. Our USP

34 Applied Solutions: Leveraging our expertise beyond The world’s preeminent transport authority consultancy London Ambition

? Growing: Transport authorities around world facing similar challenges to TfL Market £20m - £50m

- Approached often for our expertise: we’ve been ahead of the curve in developing solutions to major challenges (e.g. Current Ambition contactless, congestion charge). Have a surplus of resource Our USP today.

35 Section 7 Managing our risks

The challenge 1 Our approach 2 How we'll do it Getting the basics right 3 Transforming our core 4 A disciplined capital plan 5 Growing our business 6 Managing the risks 7 Conclusion 8

36 Planning for Stress tests Impact over five year plan Potential upside uncertainty Potential downside Our stress tests consider a £500m range of impacts on London, £250m including macro political and - economic changes, as well as (£250m) the impact of disruptive (£500m) (£750m) technology on our operations We have developed stress (£1,000m) and network. (£1,250m) tests to understand how (£1,500m) external changes could 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 impact our financial position. How we will mitigate this uncertainty We are developing Re-prioritise our Close monitoring Only committing Review inner Asset recycling mechanisms to be able to capital programme of cash position to to investment London bus options similar to maintain buffer when we are sure service if demand Elizabeth line fleet react effectively. it can be funded falls sale and leaseback

37 Section 8 Conclusion

The challenge 1 Our approach 2 How we'll do it Getting the basics right 3 Transforming our core 4 A disciplined capital plan 5 Growing our business 6 Managing the risks 7 Conclusion 8

38 By 2024, TfL will We are addressing our core We are investing to improve We are growing our be more financial position our core service business efficient, We are effectively managing day- We will make London’s streets We have four key growth areas sustainable and to-day costs and are well ahead of healthier with a clear ambition for each: budget this year. resilient We will give customers a better Property: London’s leading The Crossrail delay and economic public transport experience operator and owner of build-to- factors outside our control force rent us to go further in transforming We will encourage development We face challenges today, our business. We are managing of new homes and creation of Media: The best partner to these risks but must address our new jobs promote & understand business in but we are addressing core business. London them and seizing Together, these investments will To do this, we will: Retail: A top-five player in • Improve quality of life in opportunities for growth convenience and small retail Grow the LU surplus London • Encourage economic growth Right-size the bus network Applied Solutions: The world’s • Increase housing delivery preeminent transport authority Developing policy and consultancy • Attract more customers onto funding solutions for roads our services Make our back and middle office as efficient as possible 39 Appendix 2

Transport for London Business Plan 2018/19 to 2023/24DRAFT Contents About (TfL)

Part of the Greater London Authority We are moving ahead with many of family led by Sadiq London’s most significant infrastructure Khan, we are the integrated transport projects, using transport to unlock growth. authority responsible for delivering the We are working with partners on major Mayor’s aims for transport. projects like Crossrail 2 and the that will deliver the new 4 Forewords 46 Building a sustainable business We have a key role in shaping what homes and jobs London and the UK need. life is like in London, helping to realise We are in the final phases of completing the the Mayor’s vision for a ‘City for All Elizabeth line which, when open, will add 10 6 : My vision for London 48 Building financial stability Londoners’. We are committed to per cent to central London’s rail capacity. creating a fairer, greener, healthier and 8 Mike Brown MVO: Overcoming 56 Borrowing more prosperous city. The Mayor’s Supporting the delivery of high-density, new challenges Transport Strategy sets a target for 80 mixed-use developments that are 58 Long-term capital plan per cent of all journeys to be made on planned around active and sustainable 10 The financial context foot, by cycle or using public transport travel will ensure that London’s growth is 60 Facing our challenges by 2041. To make this a reality, we good growth. We also use our own land prioritise health and the quality of to provide thousands of new affordable 12 Delivering the Mayor’s 62 Developing diversity people’s experience in everything we do. homes and our own supply chain Transport Strategy creates tens of thousands of jobs and We manage the city’s red route strategic apprenticeships across the country. 66 Our services roads and, through collaboration with 14 The strategy and vision the London boroughs, can help shape We are committed to being an employer the character of all London’s streets. that is fully representative of the 16 Making the vision a reality 68 Streets These are the places where Londoners community we serve, where everyone travel, work, shop and socialise. can realise their potential. Our aim is to 18 Healthy Streets and healthy people 78 Buses Making them places for people to walk, be a fully inclusive employer, valuing and cycle and spend time will reduce car celebrating the diversity of our workforce 24 A good public transport experience 86 Rail dependency and improve air quality, to improve services for all Londoners. revitalise town centres, boost businesses 30 New homes and jobs 94 and connect communities. We are constantly working to improve the city for everyone. This means freezing TfL 34 Business at a glance 102 Elizabeth line We run most of London’s public fares so everyone can afford to use public transport services, including the London transport, using data and technology to 106 Other operations Underground, , the DLR, make services intuitive and easy to use, 36 Forecasting and trends London Overground, TfL Rail, London and doing all we can to make streets and 114 Commercial Development , , London transport services accessible to all. We Dial-a-Ride, , reinvest every penny of our income to 38 Forecasting 120 Professional services and the Emirates continually improve transport networks Air Line. The quality and accessibility for the people who use them every day. 44 Operational trends of these services is fundamental to 124 Appendix Londoners’ quality of life. By improving None of this would be possible without and expanding public transport, we can the support of boroughs, communities make people’s lives easier and increase and other partners who we work with to 127 TfL Group balance sheet the appeal of sustainable travel over improve our services. We all need to pull private car use. together to deliver the Mayor’s Transport 128 Major new capital investment Strategy; by doing so we can create a (net of third-party funding) better city as London grows.

DRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 3 Forewords

6 Sadiq Khan: My vision for London

8 Mike Brown MVO: Overcoming new challenges

10 The financial context

Image 1: Working to improve London’s transport future DRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 5 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Sadiq Khan Transport Strategy sustainable business

and a large programme of major capacity My vision for London improvements, including upgrades to four London Underground lines, the We must keep cutting costs, as we invest Northern Line Extension to Battersea and a major upgrade of Bank station. TfL in London’s future. will continue to develop plans to build Crossrail 2 and extend and upgrade the Bakerloo line. Also, the opening of the Elizabeth line will add 10 per cent to central London’s rail capacity. When I was elected in 2016, I was clear concessions and introduce the Hopper that TfL needed to become leaner and fare, making travel more affordable for I was extremely disappointed and Image 2: Mayor Sadiq Khan more efficient. That’s why I challenged it millions of Londoners. I am convinced this frustrated when it was determined that to undertake the biggest organisational is where TfL’s efforts must continue to be the Elizabeth line would not be ready to overhaul in its history to help put it targeted as, above all else, it exists to serve open at the end of this year. As one of the In the next twelve months, there will on a sustainable financial footing. This the people of our city. joint sponsors, TfL’s immediate attention likely be a review of spending across meant major structural changes to must be on working with the Government the whole of Government. With an remove duplication and reduce tiers of Like any large company, TfL must keep and Crossrail Limited to complete the uncertain future outside the European management, as well as cutting the use revising its Business Plan to reflect the project, so that Londoners and businesses Union, investors need confidence that of expensive temporary contracts and national economic context. The closer we can start to see the benefits of the new London will be supported by genuine and negotiating better deals with suppliers. get to the UK leaving the European Union, infrastructure they have helped pay for. sustained investment. the worse those forecasts become. It is no surprise that TfL’s demand forecasts are We know that delays cost money. Since Under my leadership – and with this A well-functioning considerably lower than they were two the announcement at the end of August Business Plan in place – TfL will continue transport network is years ago. 2018, that the central section of the to bear down on costs so that it can keep the lifeblood of any great Elizabeth line would be delayed, we have London moving and growing despite the I have made clear to TfL’s leadership been in detailed discussions with the very serious financial headwinds. But city, so we must keep where their focus must remain as they Government about how the additional this can only go so far. We have agreed a investing in ours respond to these financial pressures. It cost of this delay to Crossrail can be met. way to pay the extra costs for Crossrail, has already reduced its year-on-year, like- We have accepted that London should but not without extreme difficulty. Over for-like operating costs for the first time pay any additional capital costs over the next year, we will continue to make Now, two and a half years on, it is a very in its history and this must become an time, and the Government has agreed to the case to the Government that it must different organisation. Under our direction, established trend. They must also continue assist with financing those costs in the recognise and play its part in supporting TfL has been restructured to bring to prioritise the delivery of our Transport short term. However, the Government our capital’s economy and investing in together previously disparate functions, Strategy, because the future of transport has refused to provide any support for our infrastructure. with a smaller senior management team. in London cannot be put at risk by the the fare income TfL will forego because It has also substantially reduced its use uncertainty associated with Brexit. of the delay. Given that fare income of consultants and ended an expensive, from the Elizabeth line was part of the ineffective private partnership contract. A well-functioning transport network Government’s rationale for removing is the lifeblood of any great city, so we TfL’s operational grant funding in the first We have slimmed down TfL, while keeping must keep investing in ours. Over the place, which means the Government is a relentless focus on the safety and quality next five years, TfL will launch new safety essentially forcing London to pay twice of the services it runs. Despite losing, on measures, including a world-leading – first, with the removal of the operating average, £700m a year in operating grant Bus Safety Programme; the Ultra Low grant and now in its refusal to assist with from the Government, we have kept our Emission Zone alongside a host of hard- the revenue impact of the delay to the Sadiq Khan promise to freeze TfL fares, preserve hitting measures to clean up London’s air; opening of the Elizabeth line. Mayor of London

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services and road maintenance, this Overcoming new challenges change to our funding makes us far more exposed to macroeconomic factors We will eliminate our deficit while affecting our city. This first year without grant funding has coincided with tough supporting the Mayor’s vision for travel conditions that have meant passenger numbers are lower in the context of a in London. subdued London and UK economy.

That financial pressure is compounded The Mayor’s Transport Strategy is clear in by the extremely disappointing its objective that by 2041, 80 per cent of For each of the last two announcement from Crossrail Limited Image 3: Commissioner Mike Brown MVO journeys will be made by walking, cycling years, we have reduced our that the opening of the central section and public transport compared with year-on-year like-for-like of the Elizabeth line would be delayed. around 63 per cent today. Travel will be This Business Plan reflects our latest commercial opportunities. Those cost healthier, easier and more affordable for operating costs and will forecasts for the additional capital cost, savings and new revenues will allow us to everyone in London. do so again this year as well as lost fares and commercial keep investing in the new infrastructure income as a result of the delay. London needs to support its growth and There is a great deal to deliver to realise remain the economic engine of the UK. that vision. As the Mayor’s Transport • The delay announced by Crossrail Faced with these external headwinds, Strategy describes, we will only really Limited to the opening of the Elizabeth we have had to be very clear about our This is a challenging but deliverable plan change how Londoners choose to travel line, which affects both capital costs position and what we can afford. for the next five years. Our performance if we transform London’s streetscape. and operating revenue over the last two years has shown Once streets are more pleasant, healthy First, we will prioritise safety. We will we can successfully save money and and accessible, more people will walk and • The absence of any funding from central continue to work towards Vision Zero reduce costs quickly and safely. We must cycle. Work has to continue to deliver a Government for the maintenance of and the elimination of fatalities from our become financially resilient, particularly world-leading public transport network London’s strategic road network transport network. We will continue to as the UK approaches the uncertainty that provides value for money and gets work with the tram industry across the UK of leaving the European Union, and this people to their destination safely and We are now more than halfway into to deliver the Rail Accident Investigation plan will provide that. It will require us quickly. Transport is a big enabler of all the the first financial year in our history Branch’s recommendations on our tram to work constructively with the trade great things that go on in London – so we during which we will receive no direct network in south London, following the unions so that together we can become must do our part to keep our city growing Government operational grant for our tragic overturning at Sandilands two years a more efficient, productive and diverse by improving transport links and so help day-to-day running costs. This means ago. And we will continue to maintain all team. It is the plan we must deliver if to create new homes and jobs. that over the last seven years we have of our rail and road network to a safe level, we want to continue to give London the had our external sources of funding cut despite receiving no share of the financial transport system it needs to cement its There are four major factors affecting in half. We knew this fundamental change support the Government provides for place as a great world city. the outlook over the next five years: was coming and we have been preparing road maintenance everywhere else in for it by making significant changes to the country. • Adapting to the loss of, on average, how we run our organisation: for each of £700m per annum operating grant from the last two years we have reduced our We will eliminate our deficit through central Government, which used to year-on-year like-for-like operating costs our savings plans and by growing our offset the cost of day-to-day services and will do so again this year. non-fare income. Our new growth strategy has a greater focus across our • A subdued national economy, which But as well as the obvious reality of property development, consulting, has affected passenger numbers on simply having far less available income advertising and retail activities to build Mike Brown MVO public transport nationally to continue subsidies of public transport our revenues and make the most of Commissioner

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The financial context Spotlight We are responding to changing economic Meeting the additional costs for Crossrail conditions and the impact of the delay On 31 August 2018, Crossrail Limited cost, and a loan facility from Government to the Elizabeth line. announced to the joint sponsors, to provide further contingency if needed. Department for Transport and TfL, that This package will see London pay for the the Elizabeth line would be delayed. additional costs in full over time. Our 2017 Business Plan set out how we safe and reliable transport services and This is obviously a huge disappointment. would turn an operating deficit into a continue to deliver the Mayor’s Transport Londoners and businesses had made No further capital funding is needed surplus by 2021/22 and restore a sustainable Strategy. However, we need to adjust our plans on the basis of the new line for the train rolling stock contract, as cash balance. This would provide both plans to reflect the financial impact of opening at the end of this year, but the this was arranged for a fixed price. The resilience against external shocks and the prevailing economic conditions and the delay also has specific capital funding trains are already in service on TfL Rail ability to invest without a long-term capital delay to the opening of the Elizabeth line. and revenue impacts. and are ready for dynamic testing once grant. We provided more detail on the first the central section infrastructure has year of this plan in our 2018/19 Budget. We will continue to eliminate our operating Crossrail Limited requires additional been completed. deficit, but we will achieve a net operating capital funding to complete much of In the last year, we have more than surplus one year later than previously the railway infrastructure, including Separately, the delay means we will not delivered on that Business Plan and Budget. planned, in 2022/23. We are reliant on the final fit out of the tunnels and the start receiving fares and commercial We have continued to cut costs and expect steady and sustained investment from construction of the stations in the central revenue from the line until later than to significantly beat our financial targets at the Government to support major capital section. Crossrail Limited must then test expected. We expect many customers the end of this financial year. This means projects. While we are planning to follow the integrated systems to ensure that to continue using existing Tube and DLR that we will have made solid progress in the roll-out of new trains on the Piccadilly the finished infrastructure, signalling services until the Elizabeth line opens. reducing our operating deficit caused by line with new signalling and then to systems and new trains all work together Until a credible and robust schedule the withdrawal of our operating grant upgrade the rest of our deep Tube lines, to deliver a safe and reliable service. As a has been confirmed, we are making a from the Government and changing such large-scale investment will not be joint sponsor, alongside the Government, cautious assumption that our revenue economic conditions. possible without capital funding from we must find a way of funding the forecast will be approximately £600m the Government. We will therefore be additional capital cost of the delay to lower over the plan period. This will be However, in response to a subdued discontinuing the current procurement the project together. offset by our savings and revenue growth national economy, we have had to revise while we work with suppliers to find the programmes, allocating a small portion our revenue forecasts down again this best way forward. These pressures have The interim findings of the KPMG review of our business rates funding to operating year. This means that, over a five-year a similar effect on major station projects, into Crossrail Limited’s finances indicate expenditure, and moving back the date by period, we are now forecasting to receive including the work to transform Camden the capital impact of the delay could which we expect to achieve an operating £2.1bn less in revenue than we had in Town station. be in the region of between £1.6bn and surplus by one year. We will also explore our 2016 Business Plan (excluding the £2.0bn. That includes the £300m already with the Department for Transport Elizabeth line) – this is a reduction of We have no certainty of capital funding contributed by the Department for the possibility of beginning to operate seven per cent. We must also respond to beyond 2020 and over the next twelve Transport and us in July 2018. Reading to Paddington services ahead the cost impact of the delay, announced months we will be making the case of the completion of the Elizabeth line. by Crossrail Limited, to the opening of to Government for confirmed capital The Mayor and the Government have the Elizabeth line. support to enable these critical projects. agreed a financing package to cover Our revenue assumption will be revised At the same time, we will continue our these additional costs, which will see the once the new management of Crossrail In this Business Plan, we set out successful programme of cost reduction Greater London Authority providing TfL Limited have completed their work on a a comprehensive programme of across our organisation, and work to with grant funding for £1.4bn of additional new delivery schedule. investment across London, to deliver create new revenue streams.

10 Forewords DRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 11 Delivering the Mayor’s Transport Strategy

14 The strategy and vision

16 Making the vision a reality

18 Healthy Streets and healthy people

24 A good public transport experience

30 New homes and jobs

34 Business at a glance

Image 4: We will support the Mayor in creating a safer, healthier and more prosperous London DRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 13 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business

The strategy and vision A good public transport experience The right investment will ensure that street-level investment. Making sure the public transport becomes an increasingly right services are available where people Investing in air quality and connectivity so attractive alternative to using a car. need them, reducing overcrowding and London remains globally competitive and an Proper planning for the whole journey keeping fares affordable will help to attractive place to live and do business. will help integrate public transport and reduce car dependency. More 100% More The strategy sets out how London The Mayor has the aim that, by 2041, Keep all bus services step-free access on automatic can prosper as it grows over the next 80 per cent of trips will be made on TfL fares for outer the Elizabeth line refunds for two decades, supported by huge foot, by cycle or using public transport. London maximum improvements to the transport This Business Plan sets out the progress frozen fares system and the Mayor’s vision for we expect over the next five years and, until 2020 active, affordable, efficient and beyond that, to set us on the path to sustainable transport. achieve this ambition. 4 54 Improve London new state-of-the-art taxi rank Underground trains for London accessibility lines to get Overground extra capacity Healthy Streets and healthy people

Investment will focus on improving the and prioritising walking, cycling and public experience of being in the places where transport use will help Londoners live New homes and jobs people live, work, go to school, spend time active, healthy lives and help create a city and travel. Reducing traffic dominance that works well for all of its residents. Transport improvements are vital to local amenities are within walking and the creation of new homes and jobs, cycling distance and public transport is Vision and can ensure that London’s growth available for longer journeys, protecting More Transform supports healthy lives. Our investment the environment and improving quality cycling and junctions for pedestrians and cyclists Zero will help to create communities where of life. walking target for road safety Develop sites for Develop plans for Work towards nobody Purchase only 10,000 Crossrail killed on or by a bus by homes on our land zero-emission (50 per cent affordable 2030 single-deck buses from 2020 since May 2016) Develop the Develop plans to extend the infrastructure for integrated new river electric World’s first More deliveries 2 crossings in line Ultra Low Emission east London Bakerloo taxis Zone launches

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Making the vision a reality The future remains uncertain. London’s Figure 1: The expected path to achieving the Mayor’s Transport Strategy aim that economic position is likely to be affected 80 per cent of trips will be made by foot, by cycle or using public transport by 2041 London’s economic success has been by the UK’s exit from the European Union a key part of the increases we have in at least the short to medium term 80 seen in sustainable travel. More people, and there is no clear indication of when Target 2024 - 2041 more jobs and more investment has disposable incomes are likely to increase. 75 meant that Londoners and visitors have Target to 2024 increasingly made sustainable choices for Our investment programme will make 70 visional) how they get around. it easier and more attractive to travel by o sustainable methods of transport. We 65 2017 (pr expect the percentage of trips made on Proposed trajectory (lower bound) We expect the percentage foot, bicycle or public transport to increase of trips made on foot, from 63 per cent currently to around 65 per 60 2017 (provisional) bicycle or public transport cent by 2024, although this could be slightly higher or lower depending on the factors 55 Historic trend to increase to around described above. This is up from 52 per

65 per cent by 2024 – the cent in 2000 and would be the highest this 50 has been in London since TfL was formed. 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 highest in London since Historic trend Target to 2024 Target 2024-2041 TfL was formed Our work over the next five years will enable faster delivery of the Mayor’s The shaded region shows the range of outcomes and risk to achieving the target. Transport Strategy and progress will This Business Plan comes at a challenging also increase if London’s economy time for London, with a continuing and strengthens. We will continue to make unprecedented squeeze on incomes the case for steady and sustained and the uncertainty over Britain’s future investment in London’s future and will relationship with Europe after exiting the carry forward policies that will further European Union. reduce travel by car, with these trips replaced by increased walking, cycling London’s growth has slowed in recent and use of public transport. years. There are fewer new migrants and lower growth in the number of younger working-aged adults – both groups who are less likely to use cars when travelling. The squeeze on incomes and wider changes in customer behaviour have added to a continued decline in travel around London for shopping and leisure activities. 1.0 Target 2024 - 2041 0.9 Target to 2024 0.8 Trajectory upper bound visional) o 0.7 Trajectory lower bound 2017 (pr

0.6 Proposed trajectory (lower bound) 16 Delivering the Mayor’sDRAFT Transport Strategy DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 17 0.5 2017 (provisional)

0.4 Historic trend year 2000 year 2010 year 2020 year 2030 year 2040 Historic trend Target to 2024 Target 2024-2041 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business

Healthy Streets and healthy people Spotlight

Our Business Plan will create Healthy Active travel Streets that promote walking, cycling and public transport, and we will ensure the We are investing record amounts safety and security of everyone in London. in walking and cycling, supporting efficient and healthy ways to get Safety and Vision Zero around the city. Nearly half of car Safety is always our number one priority trips by Londoners could be cycled and we are working to eliminate death in around 10 minutes, and more than and serious injury from our transport a third could be walked in under 25 network by 2041. Together with our minutes. We want people to have partners, we must take systematic action the opportunity to do two 10-minute to achieve the goal of Vision Zero. periods of brisk walking or cycling a day, which is enough to avoid the The Vision Zero action plan, published greatest health risks associated with in July 2018, sets out our approach with inactivity. We want to enable more specific focus on improving the safety than one million additional walking of the road network. Action includes a trips a day by 2024. proposal to lower speed limits on those parts of the Transport for London Road Over this Business Plan, we are Network where people are most at risk. investing £2.3bn on Healthy Streets. We are fast-tracking improvements at a This will fund transformative number of locations currently identified projects to enable more walking in the Safer Junctions programme to Image 5: We will make London’s streets safer as we work towards the Vision Zero target and cycling across London. This reduce danger. includes investment in Liveable Neighbourhoods in local areas and the We are implementing a world-leading buses through the Bus Safety Standard Scheme to reduce the danger posed by Safer Junctions programme to reduce Bus Safety Programme to drive major for the city’s entire bus fleet, as well HGVs. As part of the scheme, in 2024 we road danger. London’s cycle network improvements in safety across the bus as in-depth collision analysis and new, will ban from London’s streets all HGVs will continue to grow, including network and reduce the number of innovative bus driver training. with a zero- to two-star rating under the major new high-quality cycle routes people who are killed or seriously injured Direct Vision Standard, unless they are connecting communities between in, or by, London buses by 70 per cent by We will also launch the world’s first fitted with a Progressive Safe System, Brentford and Olympia, Tower Bridge 2022, against 2005-09 levels. This includes Direct Vision Standard and an associated which could include cameras and sensors. and Woolwich, Tottenham and the development of the world’s safest Heavy Goods Vehicle (HGV) Safety Permit Camden, Hackney and the Isle of We will focus relentlessly on improving Dogs, and from Lea Bridge to Dalston. safety across our rail and Tube networks. We have comprehensive programmes Our new Healthy Streets Activation in place to reduce customer and programme brings together the most staff injuries, and we are making effective and proven measures, such 70% 1 million particular progress in responding to as projects at schools, to support fewer people killed or seriously more walking trips a the Rail Accident Investigation Branch’s people using new infrastructure and injured on, or by, a bus by 2022 day by 2024 recommendations for our tram network help Londoners from all communities in Croydon and throughout the wider enjoy walking and cycling. UK industry.

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We have already installed a range of new overall traffic levels by 10 to 15 per cent Spotlight safety measures on the tram network by 2041. and will introduce a further new system that will physically prevent trams We are working with freight operators, Cleaner bus routes for London from speeding in high-risk areas of the London’s businesses and the boroughs to network. The tragedy at Sandilands in develop plans to make this a reality. This November 2016 can never be allowed to means delivering the same or greater Low Emission Bus Zones are a key part happen again. amount of goods with fewer deliveries, of reducing London bus emissions and retiming and re-routing trips to quieter support the Mayor’s wider target of Our work to keep the network safe times and streets, moving freight onto raising our entire fleet to at least the and secure is always done in close rail and water where possible, and ultra-clean Euro VI engine emission collaboration with the Metropolitan helping more last-mile deliveries to be standard by 2020. Police Service and the British Transport made on foot, by cargo cycle and using Police. We will maintain existing ultra low emission vehicles. Together with the Mayor, we are investment in policing dedicated to leading by example by implementing keeping our customers and staff safe We are working with the boroughs 12 Low Emission Bus Zones to tackle across London’s roads and public on the development of their Local the worst pollution hotspots outside Image 6: Cleaner bus routes in London transport network. We will work with our Implementation Plans, which will include central London. We are doing this by policing partners to identify efficiencies actions to reduce traffic in their local concentrating the cleanest buses on the and savings to keep that investment areas. We will continue to investigate dirtiest corridors. As of autumn 2018, All of our scheduled buses travelling focused on providing dedicated policing new, more sophisticated models of road seven zones are live: along the Low Emission Bus Zones on our network. user charging, including the full range will meet at least the cleanest engine of measures described in the Mayor’s • Putney High Street standard, through a combination of More efficient use of our streets Transport Strategy. new vehicles and upgrading mid-life Using the street network more • Brixton to Streatham buses with ultra-clean exhaust systems. efficiently will support London’s Where car trips still need to be made, we growing population and economy. We will encourage alternative models of car • High Road to Green Lanes We are working to launch more zones will continue to improve our traffic use, such as car clubs. These models can and we continue to retrofit specialist control systems, which will help us reduce the need for car ownership and • Camberwell to New Cross equipment to older buses along the tackle congestion, but we must also private parking, improving the efficiency Low Emission Bus Zones and introduce reduce demand on London’s street space. of street space. Making more efficient • Wandsworth to St John’s Hill new buses in line with new contracts. By enabling safe, clean and more efficient use of the street network will improve This is bringing immediate benefits freight trips and encouraging people London’s streets for everyone and • A12 Eastern Avenue to Homerton Road to those areas as each retrofitted to use more space-efficient methods support future growth in population bus emits a fraction of the harmful of transport, we are aiming to reduce and employment. • A5 Edgware Road, Kilburn to emissions, while others are brought up Maida Vale to this ultra-clean standard.

The Low Emission Bus Zones represent The benefits of operating cleaner the most extensive network of low buses will be felt across the capital, emission zones of any major world as the full length of bus routes take % city. Within these hotspots, Londoners them beyond the Low Emission Bus 28% 10-15 have been exposed to some of the Zones and further from the centre reduction in NOx pollution reduction in highest levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) of London. The changes are expected through the extension of the overall traffic pollution, with older buses contributing to reduce bus emissions across the 12 Ultra Low Emission Zone levels by 2041 to road-side emissions. zones by up to 80 per cent.

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Improving air quality delivering 300 by 2020. A number of these We continue to invest significant resources points will exclusively support taxis, to clean London’s air. because all newly licensed taxis are now required to be zero emission capable. The Mayor announced in March 2018 that the Ultra Low Emission Zone will be We must lead the way with our own introduced in central London in April 2019. network and have now introduced This will replace the existing T-Charge and seven Low Emission Bus Zones, which will require most vehicle types, including are already recording lower pollution all cars, motorcycles and vans, entering levels on some of London’s dirtiest central London at any time of day to pay a traffic corridors. By the end of 2019, we daily charge of £12.50, with heavy vehicles, will introduce a further five zones - this like lorries, paying £100 unless they meet is earlier than the Mayor’s previous minimum exhaust emissions standards. target of 2020. Every new double-deck bus entering the fleet is now either a hybrid or zero-emission vehicle and We are delivering from 2020, all single-deck buses entering Europe’s biggest electric the fleet will be zero emission. We are double-deck bus fleet, also delivering Europe’s biggest electric double-deck bus fleet, helping us to helping us to achieve become a zero-carbon city and improve a zero-carbon city and air quality. Currently there are more than 150 zero emission buses in London and improve air quality we are working toward making all buses zero emission at tailpipe by 2037. In October 2020 the Low Emission Zone standard, covering buses, coaches With a greater need than ever to make and lorries across London, will be sure that our public transport network strengthened, with vehicles required works for London and enables a healthier to meet the Euro VI standard to avoid city, we are working hard to improve paying the daily charge. every aspect of journeys for Londoners.

The Ultra Low Emission Zone will then be extended to the North and South Circular roads in October 2021 for all vehicles. These schemes will deliver significant improvements to London’s toxic air, reducing NOx pollution by 28 per cent.

We need to support people in choosing cleaner ways to travel, and will continue our investment in rapid charging points,

Image 7: The Ultra Low Emission Zone will launch in April 2019

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A good public Making London’s railways work better transport experience In many places the rail network could be delivering more. We have shown on London We are expanding the transport network Overground how we can improve the service to meet the needs of a growing city. for customers and run one of the best The Elizabeth line opening will be services in the country. We will continue supported by bus service changes and to campaign for local rail services from improvements to walking and cycling Victoria, London Bridge and Moorgate to facilities around stations to deliver an be transferred to us. attractive whole-journey experience. We will introduce a fleet of new trains on We will open the Northern Line the London Overground network to increase Extension to Nine Elms and Battersea capacity and frequency. We are introducing Power Station and also extend the new electric trains on the Gospel Oak to London Overground from Barking to Barking route, the extension to Barking Barking Riverside in east London. We will Riverside once complete, the Watford also continue to develop plans to build Junction to Euston route and on services out Image 8: We work in partnership with London’s boroughs and local communities Crossrail 2 and to extend and upgrade the of Liverpool Street to Cheshunt, Chingford Bakerloo line, DLR and tram networks. and Enfield Town. We will also increase capacity and frequency on the Richmond/ Spotlight Transforming the world’s oldest metro Clapham Junction to Stratford route. We will We continue to modernise the Tube to continue to progress our plans to introduce provide faster and more reliable journeys. a new train fleet for the DLR network, Working with London’s boroughs and local communities increasing its capacity and helping people to We will deliver state-of-the-art signalling live and work in east London. It has been a big year, both for transport That is why we have made a commitment on the Circle, District, Hammersmith & in London and for the boroughs, to work more closely with the boroughs City and Metropolitan lines, significantly Modernising our bus network following the local elections in May. and local communities to have a better increasing capacity at peak times. We will With more than six million journeys a understanding of the priorities so more move forward with the modernisation day, buses provide safe, affordable and We are committed to working in close people have an opportunity to get of the Piccadilly line, beginning with accessible travel across all parts of London. partnership with the newly elected and involved in creating plans. new trains to provide more comfortable re-elected borough administrations, as and reliable journeys. We will continue To support the Vision Zero action plan well as the City of London Corporation From holding regular meetings with to make the most of investment on the across the transport system, we are to understand their priorities. elected members and transport Jubilee and Northern lines by running delivering a world-leading Bus Safety officers, to attending a wide variety of more frequent services. Standard. We will invest in bus priority From improving the affordability and neighbourhood forums and community initiatives and the bus fleet to deliver better, accessibility of local public transport group events, we want to connect To maximise this investment, we will more reliable journeys by cleaner buses. to creating healthy streets, new homes the local conversations back into upgrade capacity at some of our busiest and jobs, we will work together to our business. stations, including Bank, and progress the Construction of the Silvertown Tunnel will deliver the many hundreds of schemes scheme at Holborn, while continuing to provide an opportunity to create new cross- that will fundamentally change the way London’s boroughs have told us that add step-free access across the network. river bus links in east London. We will also people live and move around our city. they need stable, long-term funding expand bus services in outer London, with to be able to plan properly and deliver The opening of the Elizabeth line will mark new services like the express X140 from We know that many of these areas are effectively. This Business Plan maintains a step-change in transport connectivity, Heathrow to Harrow, connecting more complex and that we will need to work overall borough funding at the levels of bringing 1.5 million more people within Londoners to high-quality public transport collaboratively to make it all happen. our previous plan. 45 minutes of central London. and supporting the delivery of new homes.

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Making rail travel more accessible delivered by the end of 2023/24, two Spotlight We are continuing to invest in years later than planned. We are also improvements to make the Tube more investigating more efficient ways of accessible for all Londoners. Following making stations step-free, such as Our vision for the future of London’s bus network the introduction of step-free access at awarding a new lower-cost lift contract Buckhurst Hill, Victoria and Newbury and building components off-site. Park stations in 2018, there are now 76 The role of the London bus is evolving. step-free Tube stations on the network. Alongside our improvements to Our network sees more than six million This represents 28 per cent of all London accessibility on the London Underground journeys every day with more than 9,300 Underground stations. network, we are seeking funding to make buses, 25,000 drivers and 675 routes. more of London’s rail stations step-free. Finsbury Park and South Woodford will Together with the Mayor, we submitted a Buses connect communities across be the next stations to benefit from recommendation to the Government for London and help everyone to get investment in accessibility and we will the next tranche of Access for All funding around, whoever they are and whatever be building new lifts and walkways to on 16 November. This covers the period they do. To run these vital services, provide step-free access at a further 12 from 2019 to 2024. Our recommendation by 2020, we will subsidise it by more stations. Osterley, Amersham, Harrow- includes 21 stations on the National than £700m a year. This is an increase on-the-Hill, Cockfosters, Mill Hill East, Rail network where we consider that of 25 per cent since 2015/16 and will be Burnt Oak, Debden, Northolt, Sudbury improvements to accessibility should be the highest annual bus subsidy in our Hill, Wimbledon Park, Hanger Lane and prioritised to deliver the objectives of history. We must make sure that we Ickenham will be step-free by spring the Mayor’s Transport Strategy, as well use this money to deliver a modern, 2020. As well as these 15 stations, which as those specified by the Department efficient bus service. are part of the London Underground for Transport. accessibility programme, other stations Our ambitious plans will see us deliver Image 9: We are modernising the bus network are also being improved for accessbility The Department for Transport the world’s biggest and greenest as part of other programmes, such as manages the Access for All fund and bus network outside China. This will the Elizabeth line stations including will determine which stations are help to achieve the Mayor’s vision of By restructuring the bus network, Ealing Broadway and Whitechapel. That successful. A final decision by the more journeys by active, efficient and we can still provide a high-frequency means, by 2020, 34 per cent of all London Department for Transport is expected sustainable services, costing less to run service in central London, while Underground stations will be step-free. in spring 2019. Any stations selected will and attracting more customers. investing in other London routes. This be subject to a design process before is crucial not only to control our year- We are also working to deliver further they are considered for progression to To do this, we must target the network on-year operating costs and deliver step-free stations, including Boston the construction and delivery phase to more effectively – making sure buses an affordable transport system for Manor, Ruislip, North Ealing, Snaresbrook, ensure that the provision of step-free are in the right places at the right times, Londoners, but to enable the network Park Royal and Rickmansworth. These access is economically feasible at the to deliver the best service. There is to be expanded in parts of London stations remain funded but will be station concerned. now a clear opportunity to adapt the where better public transport will have bus network in central London, in the biggest impact on reducing car use response to a combination of lower bus and delivering healthier streets. demand, enhancements to the Tube, improvements for walking and cycling, We are innovating bus service provision, Expanding % and the introduction of the Hopper including trialling a demand-responsive bus services in 34 fare, which enables passengers to make service in outer London and considering of Tube stations will outer London unlimited bus journeys for the price of plans for new tram-like bus transit be step-free by 2020 one if changing buses within the hour. schemes in areas with major growth.

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Watford Junction Cockfosters Chesham Cheshunt Epping Figure 2: Improving travel Chalfont & Watford High Street High Barnet Latimer Oakwood Enfield Town Theobalds Grove Theydon Bois Watford Bushey Totteridge & Whetstone across London Amersham Southgate Bush Hill Park Turkey Street Debden Edgware Chorleywood Croxley Carpenders Park Woodside Park Southbury Our investment programme covers Arnos Grove Chingford Loughton Rickmansworth Hatch End Burnt Oak Mill Hill East West Finchley Edmonton Green Buckhurst Hill almost all of our network. Over the next Moor Park Bounds Green Headstone Lane Stanmore Silver Street West Ruislip Northwood Colindale Highams Park Roding Wood Green Valley Grange Hill five years we will complete a number Northwood Hills Harrow & Wealdstone Canons Park Finchley Central White Hart Lane Hillingdon Ruislip Chigwell Hendon Central Ruislip Manor Pinner Turnpike Lane Bruce Grove Queensbury East Finchley of significant infrastructure schemes Uxbridge Ickenham Harringay Wood Street Woodford North Harrow Green Lanes South Tottenham Eastcote Kenton Highgate Crouch Hill Fairlop Kingsbury Brent Cross Shenfield Harrow- Preston South Woodford and kick off more major projects – on-the-Hill Road Archway Manor House Tottenham Blackhorse Barkingside Brentwood Rayners Lane Wembley Park Golders Green Seven Sisters Hale Road Snaresbrook Ruislip Northwick Park Walthamstow Harold Wood Gardens West Upper Holloway Central Newbury transforming people’s experience of Harrow Neasden Gospel South Kenton Finsbury Park Redbridge Park Gidea Park Oak Tufnell Park Stamford Hill South Harrow Hampstead Hampstead North Wembley Dollis Hill Heath Wanstead Gants Hill Romford Arsenal Walthamstow public . Queen’s Road Leyton Wembley Central Kentish Town Midland Road Chadwell Heath South Ruislip Willesden Green Stoke Newington Leytonstone Kentish Leytonstone Stonebridge Park Finchley Road Holloway Road High Road & Frognal Town West Goodmayes Emerson Park Kilburn Belsize Park Forest Manor Sudbury Hill Harlesden St James Street Caledonian Road Highbury & Rectory Road Gate Park Ilford Kensal Brondesbury West Dalston Leyton Willesden Junction Rise Park Camden Islington Hampstead Chalk Farm Kingsland Clapton Journeys have already been improved Road Seven Northolt Stratford Wanstead Park Kings Brondesbury Caledonian International Finchley Road Camden Town Road & Sudbury Town Kensal Green Canonbury Hackney Maryland Upminster by new trains on the Circle, District, Barnsbury Downs Hackney Swiss Cottage Central Queen’s Park Mornington Dalston Junction Upminster Bridge Kilburn South St John’s Wood Stratford High Road Hampstead Crescent King’s Cross Woodgrange Hammersmith & City and Metropolitan Homerton Hackney Hornchurch St Pancras Haggerston Wick Park London Fields Greenford Alperton Great Kilburn Park Edgware Portland Hoxton Baker Euston Cambridge Heath Stratford lines. By 2023, we will have brought in Road Street Street Angel Elm Park Maida Vale High Street Paddington Bethnal Green Perivale Old Street Pudding Warwick Avenue Marylebone Euston Mill Lane Dagenham East new state-of-the-art signalling on those Warren Street Shoreditch Square High Street Abbey Royal Oak Edgware Road Road Dagenham Heathway Bethnal Mile Hanger Lane Regent’s Park Russell Barbican Green End lines and be on the way to bringing in Acton Square Farringdon Becontree Main Line Westbourne Park Paddington Goodge Bow Upton Church West Ham Park Barking Bond Street Tottenham Upney new trains on the Piccadilly line. Park Royal Street Court Road Ladbroke Grove Bayswater Aldgate Whitechapel Stepney Bow Plaistow East Ham Moorgate Liverpool East Bromley- Street Green Road by-Bow North Ealing Latimer Road Marble Arch Oxford Circus Chancery Lane Barking Holborn Bank Aldgate Devons Road Riverside Hayes & Star Lane Hanwell East White Shepherd’s Harlington Notting Covent Garden Langdon Park Acton City Bush Hill Gate Lancaster Gate St Paul’s We are introducing new trains on the Southall West Green Park Leicester Square All Saints Ealing West Acton North Holland Queensway Hyde Park Corner Tower Canning Ealing Cannon Street Monument Tower Town Broadway Acton Wood Lane Park Piccadilly Gateway Hill Shadwell Westferry Poplar Royal Victoria Overground network and progressing Acton Central High Street Kensington Circus Fenchurch Street West Drayton Shepherd’s Bush Market Kensington Charing Mansion House Cross Ealing Common (Olympia) Knightsbridge Limehouse Blackwall East South Acton Goldhawk Road Blackfriars Wapping India the procurement of new trains on Iver Barons Gloucester West India Emirates South Ealing Acton Town Hammersmith Court Road St James’s River Thames Quay Royal Docks Victoria Park Temple the DLR. The new trains will improve Rotherhithe Langley Northfields Embankment Chiswick Turnham Stamford Ravenscourt West Earl’s South Sloane Westminster Canary Wharf Custom House Park Green Brook Park Kensington Court Kensington Square Slough Boston Manor for ExCeL frequency and increase overall capacity. West Osterley London Bermondsey Canada North Silvertown Water Prince Regent Burnham West Brompton Waterloo Bridge Heron Quays Greenwich Hounslow East Emirates Gunnersbury Greenwich Taplow South Quay Pontoon Dock Royal Albert Hounslow Central Peninsula Surrey Quays Pimlico Southwark Maidenhead Heathrow Hounslow West Crossharbour Beckton Park The Elizabeth line will have opened and Terminals Kew Gardens Fulham Broadway London City 2 & 3 Lambeth North Twyford Hatton Cross Mudchute Airport Cyprus Parsons Green Imperial Wharf we will have begun construction on the Island Gardens Reading Borough Gallions Reach Richmond Putney Bridge King George V Beckton extension of the London Overground to Queens Road Cutty Sark for East Putney Peckham Maritime Greenwich Battersea Vauxhall Elephant & Castle New Cross Gate Power Station Woolwich Southfields New Cross Greenwich Barking Riverside. Kennington Woolwich Nine Elms Brockley Arsenal Wimbledon Park Deptford Bridge Abbey Wood Heathrow Heathrow Peckham Rye Honor Oak Park Terminal 5 Terminal 4 Oval Elverson Road Wimbledon Clapham Wandsworth Road Junction Stockwell Forest Hill Clapham High Street Denmark Hill Lewisham Birkbeck Avenue Beckenham Beckenham Clapham North Sydenham Road Road Junction Clapham Common Dundonald Road Brixton Penge West Harrington Road Clapham South Elmers End Anerley Balham Crystal Palace Norwood Junction Arena Tooting Bec Woodside Tooting Broadway West Croydon Merton Park Blackhorse Lane

South Wimbledon Centrale Wellesley Addiscombe Reeves Corner Road

Morden Phipps Belgrave Mitcham Mitcham Beddington Therapia Ampere Waddon Wandle Church George East Lebanon Sandilands Lloyd Coombe Gravel Addington Fieldway King Henry’s New Road Bridge Walk Junction Lane Lane Way Marsh Park Street Street Croydon Road Park Lane Hill Village Drive Addington

Key to lines

Elizabeth line Four Lines Modernisation Line extensions New rolling stock programmes

Elizabeth line Circle line Northern line DLR District line Barking Riverside London Overground Deep Tube Hammersmith & City line London Overground Metropolitan line Piccadilly line

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New homes and jobs A new cycling and walking crossing between Rotherhithe and Canary Wharf We will work to improve all of our would create a sustainable transport link transport services, which directly support between two Opportunity Areas, that London’s growth. together, are expected to support more than 36,000 new homes and 112,000 jobs. Embedding sustainable travel London can only continue to grow if we We are working with the boroughs to encourage more journeys to be made by develop proposals to support active travel space-efficient modes, such as walking, within suburban areas through our Liveable cycling and using public transport. The Neighbourhoods programme, which will Healthy Streets Approach, which provides help to create higher density development, a framework for promoting active particularly in outer London. travel, is being embedded across our organisation and the boroughs. All new Unlocking opportunities developments will need to encourage As part of this Business Plan, we will walking and cycling, and reduce car use, continue to develop proposals for in order to tackle congestion and help Crossrail 2, so that a Hybrid Bill can be Londoners to live active, healthier lives. submitted to Parliament. The scheme is a catalyst for growth across London, Major new schemes to unlock growth unlocking up to 200,000 new homes and are being developed to deliver Healthy supporting 260,000 new jobs throughout Streets outcomes. An extension and the lifecycle of the project. We continue upgrade to the Bakerloo line is one of the to work closely with Government and best examples of how we could improve Network Rail on this nationally significant connectivity, increase the capacity of the infrastructure project. transport network and reduce journey times to key destinations. This would This year, we received powers from the support development and regeneration Government to build and operate the in southeast London and, in particular, Silvertown Tunnel, a river crossing that the provision of vital new homes. Over will help to address the lack of cross-river the next five years, we will work to connections in east London and reduce refine the proposals to extend and the environmental impact of traffic upgrade the Bakerloo line and explore congestion. We will build the crossing over delivery options. the next five years so that when it opens

Silvertown 10,000 Tunnel homes started on will improve connectivity our land by the in east London Image 10: New schemes are designed to encourage more people to cycle and walk end of 2020/21

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Case study from 2024, alongside a package of cross- river public transport enhancements, it will help improve connectivity for residents New homes for London and help support growth and regeneration both north and south of the river. We continue to be on track to start on property development sites that Further east, we will continue to build will provide 10,000 new homes by the case for more public transport links the end of 2020/21. This means that across the River Thames, including a DLR half of the units brought to market extension to Thamesmead, which would since May 2016 will be affordable. We unlock more than 15,000 new homes. already have development partners We will also begin building an extension in place for 7,000 homes and by the of the London Overground to Barking end of this financial year we will have Riverside to support 10,800 new homes. partners in place for all 10,000 homes. In west London, we are continuing to These homes will cater for every develop proposals for a new West London aspect of the market. We will Orbital rail link which will connect a continue to deliver a number of number of major growth areas. In south large sites through our Property London we are working with the local Partnerships Framework and the authorities to develop the Sutton Link, London Development Panel, and which would support growth between encourage smaller providers through Morden and Sutton town centres. the Greater London Authority’s Small Sites Framework and other innovative It was recently announced that our bid routes. We are searching for an with the Greater London Authority for the investment partner to deliver our 3,000 Government’s Housing Infrastructure Fund Build to Rent homes targeting long- was successful. This funding will provide term revenue over capital receipts. additional funding to upgrade the transport network and unlock tens of thousands of We are determined that our projects new housing units and jobs. provide a lasting legacy for London. This is why we are working closely Our Growth Fund continues to support with the Mayor’s Design Advocates to transport infrastructure schemes that make sure we achieve exemplary design lead to more homes and jobs, and standards and that we are embedding unlock development and regeneration the principles of Good Growth by opportunities in some of London’s most Design and Healthy Streets in our important growth areas. This year we schemes. We will help Londoners allocated funding to new schemes that from all backgrounds develop the will help support more than 10,000 new skills that they need to find a job in homes as well as a range of transport the construction industry through and regeneration benefits, including establishing a Mayor’s Construction essential capacity and step-free upgrades Skills Academy hub. to local stations. Image 11: Our schemes will support the development of new homes and jobs across London

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Business at a glance How we report on our business Facts and figures

Streets By 2023/24...

Buses new, auto-mooring, 790km 100% 2 accessible, hybrid- Rail powered ferries of track on our rail of the bus fleet and Underground will have Euro VI Underground routes (from 725 km engines (from in 2018/19) 65% in 2018/19) Elizabeth line Other operations 985 32,000 Commercial Dev. trains on our daily cycle hire network (from journeys (from Professional services 970 in 2018/19) 29,000 in 2018/19)

Figure 3: Sources of funding Figure 4: Total costs 2018/19 – projected 2023/24 – plan 2018/19 – projected 2023/24 – plan

£0.8bn £3.2bn £6.6bn £1.6bn £6.4bn £0.4bn £7.3bn £0.6bn (8%) (31%) (64%) (16%) (63%) (4%) (71%) (6%)

£0.7bn £0.7bn £2.0bn £2.9bn (6%) (7%) (19%) (28%) £1.5bn (14%)

£0.7bn £0.2bn £4.8bn (7%) £0.1bn £0.5bn (2%) (47%) (1%) (5%)

Total: £10.2bn Total: £10.3bn Total: £10.2bn Total: £10.3bn

n Passenger income n Grant funding n Other income n Property and n Use of borrowing n Operating costs n Net financing costs n Capital renewals n New capital n Increased cash asset receipts and cash reserves investment reserves

The 2018/19 grant funding includes Crossrail funding sources The 2018/19 new capital investment includes Crossrail capital expenditure

34 Delivering the Mayor’sDRAFT Transport Strategy DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 35 Forecasting and trends

38 Forecasting

44 Operational trends

Image 12: We are planning for London’s future against a backdrop of economic uncertainty DRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 37 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business

Figure 5: Year-on-year growth in Figure 6: Year-on-year growth in Forecasting gross value added (%) employment (%) We make decisions on London’s future transport in a complex environment. A A A A

As with all forecasts, this Business Plan The graphs opposite illustrate how a range is built on a set of assumptions, which of outcomes are possible for each variable. we regularly review and update in line As these ranges are modelled for each with actual events and information from indicator, we gain a view of best to worst A F A F external independent bodies. This ensures case scenarios and aim to take a prudent Growth in gross value added in London is a Growth in employment in London is defined as that we use the latest information available and realistic position on these to derive a measure of the value of all goods and services the total number of jobs (skilled and unskilled) to make decisions to ensure we are central forecast based on the information produced in London. available in London. financially sustainable over the Business available to us at the time. Plan period and beyond. We factor in assumptions on changes to Figure 7: Year-on-year growth in Figure 8: Retail price index inflation (%) We also review the assumptions as part of our services, including future planned consumption (%) setting the annual budget, published every events, closures or upgrades across the March. This is an opportunity to update the network, the opening of new services, first year of the Business Plan in light of service frequency and policy decisions, actual developments. such as the Hopper fare. A As with all businesses, there is a range This analysis is applied across the business, of indicators that influence our revenue taking into account the controllable and A T and cost forecasts and these may depend non-controllable variables. For instance, on a number of external variables. By costs will be affected by inflation and the monitoring these and responding, we can progress of our modernisation and cost manage our resources and take action savings programmes. Advertising revenue when the revenue/costs are different from will be influenced by market conditions. A F A F the forecasts. Estimates for the Congestion Charge will depend on forecasts of traffic volume and Growth in consumption in London is the UK retail price index inflation reflects the Passenger revenue is an example where the number of exempt vehicles. extent to which goods or services are used, change in cost of retail goods and services and reflective of the portion of household across the UK. indicators are affected by external income spent (not saved). variables. These include economic This complex picture means we forecasts for London’s growth, household actively evaluate any emerging risks and n Historic actuals and forecast used n Average of external forecast n Range of external forecast consumption, employment and UK opportunities as part of our strategic risk The data in these graphs is sourced from the Office of National Statistics, Experian Economics, the inflation. The actual path of each variable management, which assesses how external Bank of England, GLA Economics modelling, GLA Economics forecasts and HM Treasury Summary can have a different impact on the level of forces may impact our business. This of Independent forecasts. demand, and they may affect each other. shows us where in the range of scenarios For example, population growth may be we are so we can adapt and manage our linked to employment growth. resources to the prevailing conditions.

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The developing context We are now starting to see a change in While London’s employment remains Evidence over several years shows that For much of the period since 2000, those trends. With uncertainty in some buoyant, the economic structure Londoners are making – on average – London saw rapid population growth, parts of the economy, and evidence of a of employment is changing rapidly. slightly fewer trips per day each year. This which fed through to increased demand recent slowdown in the rate of population Londoners’ incomes are being squeezed, is paralleled across the UK and in other for travel. Usage of the key public growth in London, public transport growth primarily reflecting housing and rental major cities worldwide. To some extent, transport networks grew, often at a has levelled off. Meanwhile, in some parts costs, which disproportionately affect this trend had been masked by historic more rapid rate than population. This of London there have been some increases younger people. Young people are growth in London’s population. reflected growing demand and sustained in road traffic, primarily reflecting changes traditionally more frequent users of investment, such as early investment to freight and distribution in the capital. public transport, particularly for off- Data suggests that lifestyle factors, such in the bus network, followed by the peak journeys, such as going out and as flexible working and internet shopping, Tube Upgrade programme and the There is also accumulating evidence shopping. In turn, it is thought that fewer could be acting alongside demographic transformative development of the of an unprecedented squeeze on young migrants are moving to London, and economic factors to depress overall London Overground, innovations such as personal disposable incomes and contributing to slowing population growth demand growth for travel. Oyster, as well as recovery from the 2008 that more general lifestyle changes, and underlying a softening of the rate of recession, with increased employment. evident for several years, may now growth for public transport travel. be more materially affecting travel demand, such as flexible working and London’s rate of internet shopping, become ever more population growth, which widespread. All these changes have Figure 9: London population estimate, 17-24 year olds (index chart – 2007 is 100) had typically been up to 1.5 acted in combination to impact progress towards our strategic ambitions. per cent per year over the previous 10 years, fell to On the best available evidence, London’s rate of population growth, which had around 0.6 per cent in 2017 typically been up to 1.5 per cent per year over the previous 10 years, fell to Meanwhile, road traffic consistently an estimated 0.6 per cent in 2017. This fell, reflecting increasing constraints was primarily driven by a reduction in on the road network, the impact of the European Union migration and a reduction Congestion Charge and an underlying in people moving to London from the overall progressive change away from the rest of the UK, particularly young people. private car and towards more attractive London is still growing, but at a much public transport, walking and cycling. slower rate than typical of recent years. Although the short-term prospects for this are unclear, most commentators still expect substantial population growth in London over the medium-long term. There is lower growth in demand among young adults, who are traditionally more frequent users of public transport.

40 Forecasting and trendsDRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 41 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business

The last two years have also seen issue. However, the possibility of more some specific developments that will fundamental changes to travel behaviour is have adversely affected travel demand a complex issue and there is no consensus in London. These include large-scale about likely future trends. All of these infrastructure works and prolonged developments serve to intensify the need industrial disputes on National Rail, for the kind of policies outlined in the affecting demand on key interchanges Mayor’s Transport Strategy if transport between services such as the Tube, as well is to continue to play a key enabling role as several terror incidents. for London’s future economic and social success, whatever the wider international These trends largely post-date the and domestic context. evidence base for the Mayor’s Transport Strategy and may not be sustained Against this backdrop, we continue to beyond the short term, but they have provide high levels of service and reliability all had a short-term impact. London is on key networks. Large-scale investment still growing, albeit more slowly than is being made, with more planned, for before, and uncertainty relating to the London’s streets to make them more UK’s departure from the European attractive for walking and cycling, and the Union is currently overhanging business Elizabeth line will shortly provide a step- confidence and planning, but again this change in public transport connectivity to, is generally expected to be a short-term from and within central London.

Figure 10: Declining average daily trip rates by London residents

Travel demand, in the last two years, has been adversely affected in the short term by some specific developments and the slowing down of London’s growth. Image 13: We are adapting our services to respond to changes in demand

42 Forecasting and trendsDRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 43 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business

Operational trends Figure 11: Passenger journeys (millions) How changing demands for transport in London will affect our services. Over the next five years, the opening of the The Elizabeth line also gives us an Elizabeth line is the biggest single change opportunity to reconfigure the bus to the network, adding 10 per cent more network in outer and inner London. This capacity in central London once fully open. will enable us to meet changing demand,

address need in outer London and make This capacity growth impacts our better use of the alternatives available other services too. In the first years of in inner London. This will also help meet the Business Plan, we expect demand the sustainable travel aims of the Mayor’s to temporarily decrease on the Transport Strategy. Underground and DLR as passengers migrate to the Elizabeth line. We expect the number of cycle hires to rise steadily with our continued investment In the latter years, we expect the capacity in cycling. We anticipate modest year-on- that has been freed up to be filled by the year growth in people using London River new, network-wide demand generated Services. Dial-a-Ride journey numbers are A F by the Elizabeth line and growth in both expected to remain unchanged. Other population and the economy. n London Underground n Elizabeth line n Buses n Rail n Other These activities are set within the context Passenger journeys are forecast to increase year-on-year from 2019/20 with Over the course of this plan, capacity of significant economic uncertainty, the introduction of services on the Elizabeth line. Rail on the Underground and rail networks meaning that current demand forecasts will increase as a result of investment in are particularly sensitive to changes in new trains, signalling and line extensions. London’s economic prospects. As with Buses This will enable enhanced services with our financial forecasts, we monitor and more frequent trains on several lines. review the operational trend risks and Population growth will also contribute to opportunities. This helps us adapt and Elizabeth line an overall increase in demand. ensure we deliver what London needs. London Underground

4.2bn 4% 10% 45mins increase in more rail capacity in central commuting time to central total passenger passenger journeys London once the Elizabeth London on the Elizabeth line journeys anticipated by 2023/24 line is fully open for 1.5 million more people by 2023/24

44 Forecasting and trendsDRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 45 Building a sustainable business

48 Building financial stability

56 Borrowing

58 Long-term capital plan

60 Facing our challenges

62 Developing diversity

Image 14: We are adapting our bus services to meet changing customer demand and become sustainable DRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 47 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business

lower fares revenue, compared to our 2016 £700m, more than £200m better than Building financial Business Plan (excluding the Elizabeth line). forecast in our last Business Plan. The delay in the opening of the Elizabeth line also means the uplift in passenger These efficiencies mean that, over the sustainability income will begin later than previously life of this Business Plan, operating costs modelled. These changes are built into (excluding one-off exceptional items and We are strengthening our resilience and this plan, which also assumes the Mayor’s the new services on the Elizabeth line) freeze on TfL fares is maintained until will go down in real terms (after adjusting making unprecedented cost savings. 2020. Our approach to forecasting is set for inflation). out earlier in this document. This Business Plan continues our huge There is also an increasingly challenging We are developing new revenue streams, programme to reduce costs, increase economic climate. Through our In order to achieve financial break-even, including a new consulting arm that shares revenue and become more efficient, while continued drive to reduce costs after renewals and finance costs, by our experience, skills and expertise around maintaining safety, frontline services and across the organisation and capitalise 2022/23, we will need to make further the world, building on recent deals, such vital investment. on commercial opportunities we savings. We have a proven track record of as the sale of our ticketing technology to are working towards achieving a net delivering on this. We exceeded our plans Miami, New York and Boston. There are four major factors affecting the operating surplus covering the cost of to reduce year-on-year operating costs in outlook over the next five years: financing and renewals by 2022/23. This is 2016/17 and further reduced like-for-like one year later than previously planned. costs in 2017/18. In 2018/19, we now expect • Adapting to the loss of, on average, our net cost of operations to be just over £700m per annum operating grant from We are more focused than ever before central Government, which used to on the need to build our financial offset the cost of day-to-day services resilience. This includes careful • A subdued national economy, which forecasting of factors affecting our Figure 12: Operating grant (£m) has affected passenger numbers on income and costs. public transport nationally Last year we forecast that demand for • The delay announced by Crossrail our services would soften following a Limited to the opening of the Elizabeth period of slower than anticipated growth. line, which affects both capital costs This was a reflection of the impact of and operating revenue changing economic factors that affect • The absence of any funding from central how and when people travel. Demand on Government for the maintenance of London Underground has been slightly London’s strategic road network above these revised assumptions, while demand on buses has been lower. The financial impact of this equates to £2.1bn

46% £111m cut in external annual operating funding since 2011 model recurring savings delivered to date The historic operating grant that was received from central Government to support our subsidised services.

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We will do more to leverage our world- Our concessions We are committed to preserving this leading position in fares and ticketing Spotlight Our comprehensive range of travel range of concessions, including the technology, telecommunications, new concessions is an important investment 60+ Oyster photocard, which bridges transport-related technology and we make as part of providing affordable the gap for people over the age of 60 intellectual property. Our revenue travel for Londoners. Alongside the but below the age of eligibility for the We generate more than £10bn of Mayor’s freeze on TfL fares and the . We are also maximising the commercial income and funding a year, which we introduction of new ticketing options opportunities we have as one of the use to run day-to-day operations and such as the Hopper fare, they provide capital’s largest landowners. By the invest in assets to maintain and enhance a way for people to move around end of this financial year we will have the network. London whoever they are, and whatever partners in place for work to start on their circumstances. sites capable of delivering 10,000 new Like other businesses, our income is homes by March 2021. Since 2016, 50 per affected by several interacting variables cent of the homes brought forward will such as economic conditions and be affordable. In addition to unlocking population growth. Some aspects of Figure 13: Travel concessions land for the development of new homes, our income are decided by the Mayor - we are proactively making smarter use such as the Mayoral regulated fares we of our assets – through retail units, charge and our allocation of London’s Estimated revenue advertising, licensing and consulting – retained business rates. Concession Description foregone in 2017-18 to generate vital, long-term revenue to Free bus travel; free travel on rail for under 11s; reinvest in the transport network. Zip Oyster photocards for £90m This plan assumes the Mayor’s freeze under 16s subsidised travel fares for 11 to 15 year olds on rail. on TfL fares is maintained until 2020. Part of staying resilient is keeping a From January 2021, our Business 16+ Zip Oyster photocard Free bus travel for London residents; half-rate close eye on – and helping to shape and Bus Pass season tickets and £75m Plan assumes that fares could rise – innovation and development in and discounted pay as you go fares for 16 to 18 year olds. by around RPI plus one per cent to around the transport sector. We are support vital investment in public 18+ Student and Apprentice 30 per cent off Travelcard and Bus Pass season tickets assessing new business models and £30m transport. This is only a TfL Business Oyster photocards for London students and apprentices. services by gathering evidence and Planning assumption, as our fares are running trials, helping us to manage risks Bus and Tram Discount Half adult-rate Bus Passes and bus pay as you go set on an annual basis by the Mayor. photocard fares for Londoners receiving Income Support, or £27m and determine which new models and Employment and Support Allowance. services we should explore further. The Mayor also determines the range of Half adult-rate fares on any services for those Jobcentre Plus £5m travel concessions we provide - some claiming Jobseeker's Allowance. of which are unique to London and ensure affordability and accessibility of Freedom Pass Free travel at all times on all TfL services. We fund transport. The concessions we currently travel in the morning peak, the boroughs compensate £21m us at other times. offer are shown in Figure 13. 60+ Oyster photocard Free travel on TfL services 24/7, and on National Rail We look for further opportunities to services after 09:30 on weekdays, for Londoners aged £69m generate long-term revenue, by using over 60 but below the Freedom Pass eligibility age*. our skills and assets as well as our Other schemes School party free travel; Olympic elite athletes; property and advertising estates. injured veterans; armed forces personnel in uniform; £1m some National Rail-operated Railcard holders; By broadening our sources of funding assistance dog trainers. we can continue to reinvest in the transport network. * The Freedom Pass eligibility age for people born on or after 6 October 1954 is 66 years old. For those born before, it is 60 years old.

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Operational breakeven maintaining safety as our top priority. This Business Plan achieves breakeven Despite driving record efficiencies, we on the cost of day-to-day operations in have had to continue this position. 2022/23, a year later than the previous London is the only part of the UK Business Plan. This is as we absorb the without routine government funding revenue impacts of the Elizabeth line for its strategic road network. We are delay and continued demand weakness, therefore left with subsidising this particularly in buses. maintenance activity from public transport fares income. A long-term Last year we took the difficult decision funding source for our roads must to significantly reduce the programme be identified. of proactive road maintenance, on both our roads and borough roads, while

Figure 14: Operating account

Actual Forecast Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan

(£m) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24

Passenger income 4,643 4,763 4,821 5,191 5,742 6,168 6,552 Other operating income 750 793 1,128 1,316 1,585 1,552 1,605

Total operating income 5,393 5,556 5,949 6,507 7,327 7,720 8,157

General grant 228 ------Mayoral business rates 854 948 954 954 954 854 854 Other revenue grants 84 74 49 13 11 11 10

Total operating income 6,559 6,578 6,952 7,474 8,292 8,585 9,021

Operating cost (6,240) (6,424) (6,909) (7,076) (7,138) (7,209) (7,340)

Net operating surplus 319 154 43 398 1,154 1,376 1,681

Capital renewals (536) (425) (456) (576) (653) (635) (651)

Net surplus/(cost) of (217) (271) (413) (178) 501 741 1,030 operations before financing

Net financing cost (428) (451) (484) (509) (548) (597) (596)

Net surplus/(cost) of operations (645) (722) (897) (687) (47) 144 434

Image 15: Passenger income after costs is reinvested back into the network

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Figure 15: Capital account Capital investment priorities With £2bn investment a year over this plan, Our total capital programme, including we will: Actual Forecast Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan renewals, balances the need to meet • Complete the Northern Line Extension our safety and performance priorities to Battersea, supporting 25,000 jobs and (£m) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 with investing, on average, £2bn a year 20,000 new homes over the next five years – this is in line New capital investment (1,420) (1,474) (1,516) (1,475) (1,228) (1,271) (1,470) with last year’s plan. This will not only • Upgrade the signalling on the Circle, Crossrail investment (1,530) (1,403) (1,196) - - - - improve transport to support London’s District, Hammersmith & City and programme growth through increasing capacity on the Metropolitan lines network, but also enhance the lives of Total capital investment (2,950) (2,877) (2,712) (1,475) (1,228) (1,271) (1,470) • Take forward the upgrade of our Londoners through continued investment remaining deep Tube lines, beginning Funded by: in Healthy Streets. with the introduction of new longer, Investment grant 960 976 893 910 930 1,051 1,072 more spacious and comfortable walk- In addition, certain items that are capital Property receipts through trains on the Piccadilly line 59 720 211 299 53 207 140 in nature are accounted for as operating and asset sales expenditure, as required by the local • Deliver Bank station upgrade authority accounting rules. For example, Borrowing 620 820 800 580 500 500 - • Continue to modernise the London Local Implementation Plan funding for Overground and introduce new Crossrail funding sources 108 999 1,004 20 85 51 - London boroughs is funded through our trains on the London Overground Other capital grants 183 210 275 120 12 15 15 operating expenditure, but is classified and progress our plans to procure as capital by the boroughs. Another Total 1,930 3,725 3,183 1,929 1,580 1,824 1,227 and introduce new trains on the example is the bus contracts, where capital DLR networks Net capital account (1,020) 848 471 454 352 553 (243) investment in vehicles, premises and plant made by bus operators appear as operating • Make air quality and environmental expenditure for us, as these assets are improvements, including the owned by the bus operators. implementation of the Ultra Low Emission Zone and making the entire Figure 16: Cash flow summary Additional Crossrail construction costs bus fleet Euro VI compliant are funded through the agreement that • Work with the 32 London boroughs and Actual Forecast Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan has been announced by the Mayor and the City of London on the TfL Road the Government. Ongoing economic Network and borough roads and assets (£m) 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 challenges, uncertainty relating to the UK’s exit from the European Union, added • Unlock land for the development of Net cost of operations (645) (722) (897) (687) (47) 144 434 capital pressure relating to Crossrail new homes and actively make smarter Net capital account (1,020) 848 471 454 352 553 (243) construction and the delayed opening of use of our assets – through, for Working capital movements 1,636 (490) 52 64 98 (95) 30 the Elizabeth line mean we have had to instance, retail units and advertising, scrutinise and re-prioritise our investment to generate long-term revenue Increase/(decrease) in cash (29) (364) (374) (169) 403 602 221 programme, to ensure we deliver projects balances that add the most value to Londoners Managing our cash flow while remaining financially sustainable. The successful delivery of our operational and capital plans, as well as effective cash We will continue to make the case that management, will ensure our cash balance London needs steady and sustained is maintained at a level that optimises investment so that we can drive the liquidity and ensures we have enough cash maximum value and productivity and to meet our financial obligations. keep London working and growing.

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Borrowing Prudent borrowing is an important source of financing and supports our capital investment programme.

Transport infrastructure has high upfront agreed with the Government in its March costs – borrowing enables us to invest 2017 funding letter, and in the £750m today to improve the network and spread contingency loan facility made available the costs over time. to us to support the completion of the Crossrail project. Our borrowing is Borrowing raised over the period of expected to reach £11.3bn by the end of this plan will finance our investment 2018/19. It is then expected to increase by programme, including line upgrades on £500m in 2019/20 and £580m in 2020/21 for the Tube and rail networks and new DLR general corporate purposes. In addition, trains. We regularly review the amounts we assume that we may require £300m in we can borrow to support capital 2019/20 under the Crossrail contingency investment, ensuring that it is prudent, facility, making our total borrowing £12.6bn affordable and sustainable. by the end of 2020/21. This plan assumes we will raise an additional £500m in The total incremental borrowing to be borrowing in both 2021/22 and 2022/23 raised by March 2021 is within the limits 2022/23 for general corporate purposes.

Figure 17: Total nominal value of borrowing (£m)

Incremental borrowing Opening balance

A F Image 16: Our borrowing programme will finance vital improvements on our network n Opening balance n Incremental borrowing

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Long-term capital plan Steady and sustained investment is vital to keeping London moving and growing.

The Mayor’s Transport Strategy shows Working with the boroughs, our Healthy how we can support London’s growth Streets portfolio starts to address our by making the most of our existing strategic goals for the road network and infrastructure and assets, and investing in we have invested in hundreds of schemes new infrastructure. across London.

We are partway through our programme We need long-term funding certainty to transform the Tube network to a to commit to large-scale projects. We modern, digital metro. Once fully installed estimate, that to support London’s growth in the early 2020s, and including the newly and achieve the outcomes in the Mayor’s introduced S-stock trains, customers will Transport Strategy to 2041 would require, on benefit from a 33 per cent increase in average, £3.3bn of new capital investment service frequency on the Circle, District, per year, with an additional £0.7bn for Hammersmith & City and Metropolitan renewals. This figure, in 2017 prices, is lines. In November 2018, we awarded a more than double our current level of contract to build 94 new state-of-the- investment and very similar to the National art trains that will be delivered on the Infrastructure Commission’s recommended Piccadilly line from 2023 and be in service spend on infrastructure of 1.2 per cent of from 2024, enabling up to 27 trains-per- total gross domestic product, the equivalent hour to operate at peak times by the end of which would be around £4.8bn.* of 2026. This is a train every 135 seconds at the busiest times and will improve This re-emphasises the need for steady and connectivity, unlocking capacity on a key sustained investment in London, and we will section of the network across London, continue to work with the Government and through the West End and to Heathrow. other stakeholders to identify ways in which that investment can be funded and financed. Station upgrades are happening across the network. Bond Street was completed We must continue to deliver this level of last year, while Victoria and Finsbury investment while also working with our Park will be completed this year and next stakeholders to identify sustainable recurring year respectively. Work is well under funding options for major infrastructure way to install step-free access across the schemes, such as the upgrade and extension network, and by 2020, we will have made of the Bakerloo line. These are critical to 15 more stations step-free. unlocking affordable housing potential. Image 17: New state-of-the-art Piccadilly line trains will be delivered from 2023

* The £4.8bn figure includes small amounts for non-TfL capital spend in London.

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Our structural cost reduction work so Case study Facing our challenges far has focused on examining individual business areas. That has enabled us to make significant progress in reducing our Building for the future We will continue with our programme of operating costs by removing duplication, cost savings, efficiencies and looking to reducing management layers and We have been at the forefront of many streamlining teams. We are now looking innovations, including Oyster cards, develop new forms of revenue. at further potential cost reduction by contactless ticketing, Congestion improving end-to-end processes and Charging, world-leading transport and identifying further structural integration development planning. Across the We are committed to providing the most track to come in ahead of our target opportunities across the organisation. globe, cities are facing similar challenges efficient and cost effective transport for this year. These are not just one-off to us and we have made strong strides service for Londoners that we can. As savings – the work we have done over We have already created a new, single in commercialising this knowledge, with all modern organisations working the last three years to make our operating Business Services function that brings such as selling our experience with in a changing world, we constantly need model leaner and more efficient has together operational activity currently contactless ticketing to New York. to adapt our organisation to best deliver secured £111m of annual recurring savings. within HR and Finance. By bringing the what London needs. teams together, there will be further Across our business we face Through careful management of the opportunities to streamline common opportunities to maximise We have a strong track record of costs of restructuring, we have managed processes, standardise reporting and commercial return. This strengthens out-performing highly challenging to achieve these savings while limiting look for other ways in which to deliver a our sustainability, provides income savings targets. one-off severance costs to £87m to date better service at reduced cost. to reinvest in our services and builds – meaning that our severance costs will the skills and capability to further Savings in the bank have paid for themselves within one year. This is one example of how we will further enhance them. We have redesigned 30 business areas and reduce our back and middle office costs reviewed more than 10,000 roles, creating Continuing to grip costs across the entire organisation. Over the We will do more across our property a leaner, simpler structure, enabling We will continue with this programme next three years, we will cut the cost of development, consulting, advertising decisions to be made more efficiently as part of offsetting the new financial these areas by 30 per cent. This will only and retail activities. Each of these and making us easier to do business with. headwinds of losing our operational be possible by looking at all the ways we will have dedicated resource, clear We have consolidated activity, including grant from central Government; not can deliver a better service at reduced cost, financial targets, the right leadership creating single Engineering and Major receiving funding for roads; the including reducing the number of roles and appropriate governance. This Projects functions. We have significantly subdued economy and the delay in the in our back and middle office functions, sets us up to make the most of the reduced the size of our management team opening of the Elizabeth line – adding building on what we have already achieved commercial opportunities, growing by reducing the number of management more pressure to our operating account. in these areas. As always, where any our business out of the financial layers from 13 to seven, cutting the We have recently agreed a package headcount reduction is necessary, we will uncertainty we currently face. number of senior managers by 13 per with the Government so that the engage in full and meaningful consultation cent. Over the last two years we have construction costs of the delay to with our people and trade unions. Our returns across these four areas removed more than 2,700 roles from our opening the Elizabeth line can be met, will grow. This includes major schemes organisation overall. but it will still see London paying for In parallel, we will continue to at Nine Elms, with 332 Build to Rent the entirety of that cost over time. scrutinise all of our activities to identify homes; applying our expertise to make That has delivered huge, recurring savings. As described elsewhere in this plan, opportunities to cut our operating Hong Kong more walkable; an enhanced We have had two record-breaking years, macroeconomic conditions mean we costs, including continuing to modernise Tube digital advertising offering; and each time reducing our year-on-year, like- need to be cautious about the outlook London Underground, driving greater 31 regenerated railway arch retail spaces for-like operating costs, and we are on for future fares revenue. efficiency from our supply chain, and at Wood Lane. These all show the reviewing and re-tendering bus contracts. ambition and focus that we are applying to these income sources.

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Our Independent Disability Advisory Spotlight Developing diversity Group provides us with valuable scrutiny and support, and we liaise with advocacy We are working to become as diverse groups across London. Supporting diversity and inclusive as the city we serve. Reflecting the city we serve Our aim is to recruit, retain and develop a diverse workforce and make sure our people have the opportunities to become the best they can be. We have a major role to play in A more accessible network contributing to London’s growth by The ability for all people to travel We are producing an innovative and bold providing a safe, inclusive and accessible spontaneously and independently is at strategy in line with Inclusive London, transport network. Through our efforts the heart of our approach to accessibility. the Mayor’s new Equality, Diversity and Image 18: Diversity Director Staynton Brown to ensure every person can access the As well as looking at the physical Inclusion strategy. This will focus on network, we will help all sectors of infrastructure, the Mayor’s Transport the promotion of equality, diversity and society actively participate in public life. Strategy addresses overcrowding, safety inclusion for our people, our passengers, One of London’s major strengths as a and affordability. partners and suppliers. This vision is city is its incredible diversity and all the Health inequalities are different by reliant on creating a workforce whose benefits that come from that, while borough and we know that different We have joined the Mayor in committing strength is its diversity of thought, remaining inclusive of all. groups experience different social to London becoming a dementia-friendly background and experience – a strength outcomes. We are committed to ensuring city. We will place inclusive design at the harnessed by an inclusive culture. Our aim is to meet the Mayor’s everyone can access our walking and heart of our renewed strategy to improve ambition to create an inclusive and cycling facilities, and that they meet accessibility for all. It is critical that we We have taken steps to ensure that accessible transport network, with their needs. also design for ‘hidden disabilities’ and women and people from black and a workforce fully representative engage with our stakeholders to get minority ethnic communities are able of London. By working to create Working with the Metropolitan Police this right. to access senior, higher-paid roles. We a workforce whose strength is its and British Transport Police, we will are already widening access to mentors diversity of thought and background, maintain our strong stance against hate This year, we have built on our Please and coaches and introducing targeted we will foster innovation, improve crime, through #WeStandTogether. offer me a seat campaign by launching development programmes to identify the safety and enhance creativity. This work is designed to reassure all the Look Up campaign, started by next generation of leaders from groups communities that public transport is safe customer Corry Shaw. This asks people that are typically under-represented. A world-leading organisation is only and that everyone is welcome. We do not travelling on public transport to look up as successful as its people. We need tolerant abuse or hate crime against our to see if someone is in greater need of In April, we reaffirmed our commitment to make sure we have the right skills, staff and customers. their seat. to employing, supporting and promoting not just for now, but for the future. My disabled people in our workplace by signing role is to strengthen our approach to up as a Disability Confident committed unlock everyone’s talents across the employer. This self-assessment process business and put people in a position includes a measure to encourage disabled to succeed. people to apply for jobs with us by offering an interview to those who meet the We are committed to removing % minimum criteria for the job. barriers for our customers, passengers 51 250 and workforce, so that they can realise of senior appointments people with mild to moderate In addition, we have a strong commitment their fullest potential, and make every in 2017/18 were female learning disabilities have been to supporting adults with learning journey matter. (from 15% in 2015/16) offered work experience disabilities into work via the Steps into

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Work project. This scheme has offered We will continue to run the Stuart Ross 250 people with mild to moderate learning black, Asian and minority ethnic internship disabilities the chance to gain skills and programme in our Press Office. This work experience. Many of the people programme launched in 2007 to address who participated said that the scheme the continued under-representation of has been life-changing and has boosted people from diverse backgrounds across their confidence, especially as they had the communications industry. struggled to get paid employment before. We will also pilot an expanded version We are putting in place innovative of the successful programme into other evidence-based programmes to help areas of our communications team: our talented people to move around in the Public Affairs and External Relations organisation. Our new approach will see team, Customer team and Travel Demand more projects created to identify what Management team. works to improve career development, reduce our pay gaps and realise the The scheme will be run by our Head of talent and potential of everyone in Media, Victoria Harrison-Cook, who was our workforce. awarded an MBE in June in the Queen’s Birthday honours list for services to We are committed to creating a culture diversity in PR. of continuous learning and improvement. This is why we are placing a strong focus We will take on three new people – one on internal mentoring over the coming for each of the teams – for the 11-month year. This is a chance to explore individual internship, which will begin in September personal goals and get a different 2019 during the pilot phase of the perspective on careers and development extended scheme. Interns will receive a opportunities in the organisation. bursary paid at the London Living Wage, as well as 28 days of annual leave, free We will continue to further strengthen and travel across London and also a pension, embed best practice in improving mental to ensure the programme is accessible health and wellbeing for all our employees. to the widest possible demographic.

We will launch a new approach to improving diversity outcomes with our suppliers, placing collaboration and co-design at the heart of tackling issues together. An example of this approach In March, we won the Recruitment Team saw the successful launch of our first of the Year award at the FIRM Awards for ever cross-company mentoring scheme our work, including the Women on the with Fujitsu, for high-potential staff from Front-Line campaign. black and minority ethnic communities.

Image 19: We are creating a workforce that is as diverse as the city we serve

64 Building a sustainable DRAFTbusiness DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 65 Our services

68 Streets

78 Buses

86 Rail

94 London Underground

102 Elizabeth line

106 Other operations

114 Commercial Development

120 Professional services

Image 20: Our aim is to make every journey safe, reliable and secure DRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 67 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business Streets

Streets Transforming our city by making London’s streets better places for people to travel and spend time.

We must prioritise sustainable journeys roll out 20mph speed limits and enhance by investing in walking, cycling and public policing and enforcement. We will also: transport. This investment will reduce road danger and improve air quality, while • Deliver major safety improvements, enabling continued freight access in streets including the removal of Old Street designed to reduce the dominance of cars. and Vauxhall gyratories As part of our measures to improve air quality, we will also introduce the Ultra • Continue to implement a network Low Emission Zone (see page 112). of high quality, safe, connected cycle routes across London National funding sources for local roads maintenance are either not available, or it • Continue significant funding for is unclear whether London can or will be the boroughs, including schemes in eligible. Collaborative partnerships with the Stratford and Tottenham Court Road boroughs, communities, local businesses and developers will therefore be essential • Deliver a world-leading road to deliver these plans. Improving London’s management system to control streets will, in turn, support increased use London’s traffic signals by 2020 of public transport. • Progress delivery of two major new river Safety is at the heart of all our projects as crossings in east London: at Silvertown we continue to work towards Vision Zero (road tunnel) and between Rotherhithe of eliminating deaths and serious injuries and Canary Wharf (pedestrian and on London’s roads. We will create half cycle crossing) subject to consultation of the 73 Safer Junctions by May 2020, and consents

8.9km 580km of our roads in central of our carriageways London will be converted represent 5% of the city’s Image 21: Safety is at the heart of our projects as we work towards the Vision Zero target to 20mph zones by 2020 roads, but carries up to 30% of its traffic

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Journeys Road disruption Safety and security The target set out in the Mayor’s With seven Cycle Superhighways, 100km We have established a new metric to We will lower speed limits in central Transport Strategy is a 65 per cent of Quietways and a number of Mini- better reflect the impact of disruption London to reduce vehicle dominance reduction in the number of people killed Holland schemes now constructed, on our roads, with each year baselined and make our streets safer and more or seriously injured by 2022 against the plus further significant additions to the against the previous year’s performance. attractive for walking and cycling. Action 2005-09 baseline. network expected to complete from 2019, will focus on junction improvements levels of cycling are forecast to increase Our 24/7 control centre will continue to at the 73 locations with the poorest In 2017, 3,881 people were killed or by approximately 40 per cent by the end monitor the road network and intervene safety record for vulnerable road users, seriously injured on London’s roads. This of the plan to an average of 1.2 million quickly to respond to disruption, making including Baker Street/Marylebone is an estimated 39 per cent reduction journeys each day. effective use of police enforcement and Road, Highbury Corner, Euston Road, against the 2005-09 baseline, following a our resources, including cameras and Edgware Road and Millbank, alongside one percentage point increase between Through the Healthy Streets Approach, on-street officers. an enhanced programme of policing and 2016 and 2017. This includes a concerning walking will also become a more attractive enforcement activities targeting drivers increase in the number of pedestrians and viable journey option, supporting our We will continue our work with utility and vehicles posing the greatest risk. killed or seriously injured in collisions aim to increase the number of trips made companies and the London boroughs involving goods vehicles. on foot each day by an additional one to coordinate road works effectively. We will work with the police, and other million by 2024. However, we anticipate increased delivery partners, to embed a new The current trend-based forecast for disruption for road-users year-on- framework for information sharing and 2022 falls short of the target. This Customer satisfaction year, due to the combined impact of post-collision learning, and establish forecast takes into account road safety Our investment in maintenance and increasing traffic volumes, road works a group to review our response to interventions that have happened to renewals aims to ensure network safety. associated with major transformational major collisions. date and assumes the same rate of Using a risk-based approach, we will infrastructure projects and operational progress into the future. prioritise activities to get the best results mitigations necessary to maintain a We will work with the boroughs, law for our investment. However, we are safe network. enforcement and security agencies to The Business Plan includes funding for a expecting slightly lower satisfaction design and implement protective security series of targeted interventions, set out ratings for our road infrastructure than Operational improvements to measures proportionate to London’s risk of in the Vision Zero action plan, published in previous years, due, in part, to sustainable travel terrorism and consistent with the Healthy in July 2018. These are designed to deliver reductions in routine maintenance We review the timings of 20 per cent of Streets Approach. further reductions in road danger and to activities, such as grass cutting, graffiti London’s 6,000 signals every year. This help put us back on track to achieve the removal and pothole repairs. new metric measures the cumulative Mayor’s road safety target by 2022. impact of these signal re-timings for In addition, satisfaction is expected people choosing sustainable transport to be temporarily affected during methods – walking, cycling or bus the development stages of our major travel. Through these changes, we aim Figure 18: Safety and security transformational infrastructure schemes, to save 15,000 hours per day for people including at Highbury Corner and using sustainable methods of transport. Forecast Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan Old Street. The development of our new Surface Intelligent Transport System technology, Safety and security measures 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 to give priority to people using sustainable Reduction in people killed or seriously transport methods at traffic lights, may injured London-wide – % reduction 42.0 47.7 50.4 53.0 55.4 57.7 further improve these delay savings. against a 2005-09 baseline*

* Forecasts liable to change as more data becomes available.

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Figure 19: Operational performance in the future Financial summary In 2019/20, we will be increasing spending London’s streets are the only part of the on maintenance for our road network as Forecast Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan UK’s strategic road network that receives part of our strategy to ensure we have no routine funding from the Government. a safe and reliable network. Part of this Asset condition 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 This means that we are forced to cross- approach is to ensure we have enough State of good repair – carriageways (%) 90.0 88.5 87.5 87.5 87.5 87.5 subsidise their operation and maintenance police officers patrolling the network and from our other sources of funding. This is that we remain committed to supporting State of good repair – footways (%) 93.4 90.4 89.9 89.9 89.9 89.9 not sustainable and new funding sources activities to reduce crime and anti-social need to be identified for London’s roads. behaviour across London. We continue Forecast Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan to focus on delivering efficiencies and Through our wider work to tackle getting value from our suppliers. Cycling and walking performance 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 congestion across London, we are pleased to see reducing numbers of cars entering Journey numbers – walking 2,451 2,476 2,501 2,526 2,551 2,576 the Congestion Charging zone. Journey numbers – cycling 290 317 344 371 398 423

Forecast Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan Figure 20: Financial summary (£m) Transport for London Streets road network performance 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24

Customer satisfaction score 69 69 69 70 70 70 Actual Forecast Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan

Pedestrian and cycling customer 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 69 69 69 70 70 70 satisfaction score Passenger income ------Road disruptions to average London Within Within 5-10% of 5-10% of 5-10% of 5-10% of Other operating income 314 317 314 320 345 348 341 journey times* – within % of previous 15% of 10% of baseline baseline baseline baseline year’s performance baseline baseline Total operating income 314 317 314 320 345 348 341 Operational improvements to sustainable 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 Direct operating cost (502) (480) (494) (480) (498) (516) (531) travel* (hours) Direct operating deficit (188) (163) (180) (160) (153) (168) (190) * New measure. Forecasts liable to change as more data becomes available.

Net capital investment (186) (161) (255) (406) (445) (457) (432)

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Capital investment the key projects over the next few years Old Street Roundabout Key projects/programmes Our investment in London’s roads consists is the renewal of the Rotherhithe Tunnel. We will start work in 2018 to remove the of three distinct areas: the Major Projects roundabout and to provide segregated A cycle network for London Directorate, the Assets portfolio, and the The Healthy Streets portfolio is a large cycle lanes, alongside the creation of Our vision is to make London a byword Healthy Streets portfolio. portfolio delivering a number of important a new public space. for urban cycling around the world. In outcomes, including cycling, borough- addition to the existing seven Cycle The Major Projects Directorate is sponsored schemes through our Local Superhighway routes, the 100km of responsible for delivering the new Implementation Plan programme, Safer Junctions programme Quietways and the Mini-Hollands Silvertown Tunnel, a large and important improvements and enhancements to our We will deliver 20 more Safer Junctions schemes already constructed in project that will help congestion and roads, and strategic projects such as the by May 2020, increasing the total number partnership with the boroughs, we will travel in and around the Blackwall new bridge between Rotherhithe and delivered from 21 to 41. This will mean continue our record investment levels Tunnel. The Assets portfolio delivers Canary Wharf, which will give pedestrians 56 per cent of the Safer Junctions with construction planned to start on capital renewals on London’s roads, and cyclists a fantastic option to cross the programme is complete by May 2020. eight major routes by the end of 2019. including bridges and tunnels. One of river in a busy part of London. Junctions targeted for improvement in By 2020, more than 100km of additional 2019/20 include Baker Street/Marylebone new, protected cycle infrastructure Road, Highbury Corner, Camberwell will have been delivered, or will be in Green, Tooting Broadway, Edgware Road construction. This represents a tripling Figure 21: Capital investment (£m) and Holloway Road. Further construction of the 50km network of routes that were start dates will be announced in place in May 2016. throughout the year as projects move to delivery stage. Silvertown Tunnel In May 2018, the Secretary of State Lowering speed limits granted approval for a Silvertown By May 2020, we will introduce a Tunnel linking the Greenwich Peninsula 20mph speed limit on all of our roads and the Royal Docks. This will improve within the Congestion Charge zone, to the reliability of the Blackwall Tunnel reduce the frequency and severity of crossing, increasing the resilience of collisions in central London as part of the road network in east London, and our commitment to Vision Zero. Beyond enabling a step change in cross-river bus 2020, we will expand this approach to links. Construction is expected to begin lower the speed limit on the Inner Ring in late 2019, with the new crossing open Road and a number of outer London and available for use in 2024. town centres. A F

2 76% 41 of 73 1,500m 200% of collisions in Safer Junctions of additional walking increase in the length London occur will be completed space for pedestrians of protected cycle at junctions by May 2020 at Old Street infrastructure by 2020

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Nine Elms Battersea, Fiveways Croydon Rotherhithe to Canary Wharf and Bow We are proposing a new river crossing Working with the boroughs, we continue to between Rotherhithe and Canary Wharf support regeneration at locations such as for pedestrians and cyclists. This will Nine Elms Battersea, Fiveways Croydon provide an alternative to the Jubilee line, and Bow, through the improvements to supporting employment and population bus, walking, and cycling routes. growth and offering a more direct and attractive route for pedestrians and cyclists between south and east London. Liveable Neighbourhoods We expect to submit a Transport and A key part of the Mayor’s Transport Works Order application for the powers Strategy, this borough-led programme to build and operate the new crossing delivers attractive, healthy and safe in 2019/20. neighbourhoods, to encourage public transport use and reduce car journeys. Designs are under way for the first seven Surface Intelligent Transport System Liveable Neighbourhoods in Ealing, We will replace London’s current traffic Greenwich, Hackney, Haringey, Havering, light control system, to enable us to Lewisham, and Waltham Forest. We will better manage London’s road network, announce the next wave of Liveable tackle congestion, improve air quality and Neighbourhoods in early 2019, following increase the convenience of travelling by a competitive bidding process. sustainable methods of transport. The new system is expected to be delivered in late 2020. Waterloo and Vauxhall We will remove one-way traffic systems at these locations, creating new public space and providing improved walking, cycling and public transport interchange facilities.

6,000+ 7 traffic lights that we new Liveable operate – timings of 1,200 Neighbourhood Image 22: We are considering options for a new walking and cycling crossing between Rotherhithe and Canary Wharf are reviewed each year designs under way

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Buses Connecting people and places across London with a safe, reliable, inclusive and sustainable network, 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

Our iconic bus fleet provides an • Ensure the safety and security of our accessible service to schools, hospitals, customers and people, by introducing workplaces and homes across London, measures like the Bus Safety Standard with more than two billion journeys • Reshape services in central and inner made each year. London to better match demand. In turn, this will enable capacity uplifts in outer To support London’s growth and achieve London to support growth the Mayor’s 2041 target of 80 per cent of all journeys being made by sustainable • Improve journey times and reliability methods, bus patronage will need to by investing in bus priority initiatives increase by 40 per cent. This is in the • Improve the customer experience, face of recent trends, whereby increased including better customer information, congestion, particularly in central before and during journeys London, has led to declining speeds and contributed to falling demand. • Ensure greener, cleaner buses by meeting the ultra-clean Euro VI engine Steps will need to be taken to make the emissions standard for the entire bus network more attractive. Working fleet in 2020 and from there, working with bus operators, the boroughs, towards all buses being zero emission developers and customers, we will: at tailpipe by 2037

9,312 675 6 buses on our bus routes on bus operators network our network trialling safety technology that Image 23: We are reshaping London’s bus services to meet a changing demand we are funding

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Safety and security We are committed to understanding Operational performance in the future In outer London, service volume will Crime on the bus network has decreased and responding to the concerns of our Population and economic activity are key grow by five million kilometers over the significantly over the past ten years and customers better, particularly those that drivers of bus demand. The uncertainty period of this plan. To meet the Mayor’s we are committed to maintaining a low deter travel by bus. Safeguarding our relating to the UK’s exit from the European sustainable transport target by 2041, this volume of crime. We will continue to most vulnerable passengers, including Union means that our forecast for bus service growth will be targeted at areas fund and work with the Metropolitan children, rough sleepers, and people with demand is more uncertain than previous where people are most likely to switch to Police Roads and Transport Policing mental health issues is a priority for us. years. However, the continuing and buses and where demand is expected to Command to prevent crime, anti-social We are committed to tackling serious unprecedented squeeze on incomes, lower increase. In inner London, where there are behaviour and fare evasion. We expect offences such as hate crimes, sexual growth in the number of younger adult more sustainable alternatives and many this collaborative effort to continue to offences and assaults on our staff. passengers and wider changes in customer instances of bus congestion, the network mitigate the broader crime challenges behaviour are likely to continue to reduce will be reduced in a targeted way, while we currently facing London, so that travelling Buses will play a key role in our Vision demand in the short to medium term. focus on enabling growth in outer London. by bus will be safe – and feel safe – for all Zero approach. We will introduce a world- This is despite reliability and customer our customers. leading Bus Safety Standard for the entire satisfaction being at historically high levels. Customer satisfaction bus fleet, which will be incorporated into Our customer satisfaction scores are The predicted reduction in bus patronage new bus operator contracts from the We will continue to optimise the service forecast to remain high. We plan to in the early years of this plan means we end of 2018. Measures include Intelligent to better meet this changing demand. The incentivise bus operators to provide anticipate a very slight rise in the crime Speed Assistance, which prevents buses introduction of the Elizabeth line, and excellent customer service, such as better rate for 2019 and 2020 compared to this from exceeding the legal speed limit and Hopper fare, are the catalysts to enable us interaction with customers and smoother year, although we anticipate the absolute trials of automated emergency braking to simplify our network, making it more journeys. We will also provide better number of bus-related crimes will remain systems. New bus interior designs will be customer-friendly and reducing inefficiency. information, particularly during disruption. stable. Further reducing crime on our implemented to reduce the frequency and network is one of our highest priorities, impact of passenger slips, trips and falls. and as our joint initiatives with our policing partners, and their wider work We will also provide bus driver safety Figure 23: Operational performance in the future across London, deliver results, we expect training, which will focus on vulnerable the crime rate to fall in the later years road users, reduce operating risks and Forecast Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan of the plan. contribute to the Vision Zero targets. Bus forecasts 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24

Passenger journeys (millions) 2,203 2,144 2,113 2,080 2,054 2,034 Figure 22: Safety and security Customer satisfaction score 86 86 86 86 86 86 Bus excess wait time - high frequency 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 Forecast Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan routes (minutes)

Safety and security measures 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Average bus speeds (mph) 9.2 9.2 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0

Recorded crimes per million passenger 6.6 6.8 6.8 6.4 6.1 5.0 journeys – bus network Service volume (million km operated) 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24

Inner London 147 137 134 134 133 133 Safety and security measures 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Outer London 325 326 327 327 329 330

Killed or seriously injured on or by a bus Sections of routes outside the 58.7 64.0 66.8 69.3 71.7 73.9 10 10 10 10 10 10 - % reduction against 2005-09 baseline* Greater London Authority boundary

Total 482 473 471 471 472 473 * Forecasts liable to change as more data becomes available.

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Financial summary If demand in inner London falls further, Capital investment Our operating deficit will increase from which it may, given the level of alternative Our investment in buses consists The Public Transport portfolio invests £638m in 2017/18 to £723m in 2020/21. This transport options, we will have to review of three distinct areas: the Air Quality in a number of small but important will be the highest annual bus subsidy in how best to match service to this demand. and Environment portfolio, the projects, such as ensuring our bus our history and represents an increase of Assets portfolio, and the Public drivers have toilet facilities and a bus more than 25 per cent since 2015/16. The In outer London we will invest in Transport portfolio. safety programme. increase in deficit is due to passenger additional capacity to support London’s demand, which has decreased over the growth and the Mayor’s targets of 80 In the Air Quality and Environment We also invest in buses, bus stops and last four years, and we have reflected this per cent of journeys being made by portfolio we are chiefly investing in new technology. Our main focus is to underlying weakness in our forecasts. sustainable modes. Fare evasion on our solutions to improve the emissions from ensure the highest standards of air network is still relatively low, but tackling the entire fleet of buses. We invest in quality and safety across our entire While it is necessary to subsidise bus it will help to fund additional investment our bus stops and shelters in the Assets bus network. services in London, we recognise in the bus service. Over this plan we will portfolio to ensure they remain in that this level of growth in subsidy is provide a record level of subsidy to the good condition. unsustainable. We will continue to drive bus network, but if bus demand is lower efficiencies through our contracting than forecast we will need to manage process. We will reduce service volume any financial impacts across the overall in inner London, where demand has £850m annual operating subsidy for the Figure 25: Capital investment (£m) fallen the most. We are not planning any Healthy Streets Approach. further significant reductions beyond the changes that were recently consulted on. We remain committed to cleaning up However, given the uncertain outlook, London’s air. By September 2020, our we will continue to closely monitor entire fleet will meet ultra-clean Euro VI changes in demand. engine emissions standard. We are also introducing Low Emission Bus Zones in 12 areas.

Figure 24: Financial summary (£m) Buses

Actual Forecast Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 A F Passenger income 1,453 1,451 1,415 1,419 1,450 1,491 1,535 Other operating income 13 11 13 15 12 11 9

Total operating income 1,466 1,462 1,428 1,434 1,462 1,502 1,544 Direct operating cost (2,104) (2,116) (2,142) (2,157) (2,170) (2,188) (2,243) 4,200+ 5,500+ Direct operating deficit (638) (654) (714) (723) (708) (686) (699) bus stops in London bus engines are at the are accessible highest Euro VI standard Net capital investment (21) (26) (25) (26) (47) (45) (27)

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Key projects/programmes

Reducing air pollution We have introduced air quality alerts at We are committed to reducing air various places across London, including pollution from our bus fleet. By 2020, our 2,500 bus stop countdown signs and entire fleet will meet the ultra-clean Euro all Tube stations. These alerts warn VI engine emissions standard. We will customers when levels of pollution operate clean buses in both the Ultra Low are exceptionally high. Emission Zone by April 2019 and in 12 Low Emission Bus Zones by the end of 2019. From 2020, all new single-deck buses entering the fleet will be zero-emission, and we will move to buying only zero- emission at tailpipe double-deck buses, so that by 2037, the entire bus fleet will be zero-emission.

Bus priority Bus priority schemes will help to improve the efficiency and reliability of the network. These measures – led by the boroughs and us – need to deliver good value for money, so priority will be given to smaller-scale interventions, such as minor changes to road layouts, extensions of bus lane operating hours and enhanced bus priority at signals, which can deliver significant benefits.

Bus driver toilet facilities Following the Mayor’s commitment to improve bus driver working conditions, we will install new toilets for drivers. These safe and secure facilities will be delivered in 42 bus locations, by April 2020, subject to obtaining the relevant consents. We will install some temporary facilities to make sure bus drivers have access to new toilets as soon as possible.

Image 24: All new single-deck buses will be zero emission at tailpipe from 2020

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Rail Enabling new homes, jobs and economic growth in Opportunity Areas around London.

London’s predicted population growth target. Current improvements include will have a significant impact on our rail introducing new state-of-the-art trains services. Our network already serves on the London Overground. These Class a significant proportion of London’s 710 trains include the latest intelligent Opportunity Areas, including the DLR in lighting and temperature control, as well the Royal Docks, trams in Croydon and as Wi-Fi, USB charging points and digital Wimbledon, plus, by 2021, an extension information screens, giving customers of the London Overground to Barking higher quality real-time travel information. Riverside. Our sustained operational performance and continued investment Other major, long-term projects include: will help these areas succeed. We must work with the boroughs and developers • Improving safety and security, capacity, to develop our infrastructure and and reliability on our rail network assets, to support London’s growth, meet demand and achieve the Mayor’s • Capacity expansion works at DLR and Transport Strategy objective of unlocking London Overground stations access to new homes, commercial development and jobs. • Replacing DLR trains with higher- capacity rolling stock Rail will help enable orbital and outer London journeys to be switched away • Continue to develop proposals for an from the car, helping deliver the Mayor’s extension of the tram network between 80 per cent public transport mode-share Sutton town centre and Merton

54 New new electric London walk-through, Overground trains, air-conditioned Image 25: Our new London Overground trains will provide a better customer experience adding capacity across DLR trains being the network procured

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Safety and security and the associated impact it has on Passenger journeys Customer satisfaction Providing a safe environment for our customers and network, through The volume of rail passenger journeys is We will continue to maintain customer customers and staff remains our top a coordinated, TfL-wide approach. expected to rise in the longer term, due satisfaction at a high level by enhancing priority. We will invest in infrastructure to population growth and associated customer information, improving improvements and CCTV and make sure We will work with the construction increased investment in infrastructure reliability and increasing capacity. safety and security are fully considered industry, Network Rail and other and enhanced service levels. However, in the planning, design and running of stakeholders to encourage materials it is anticipated that the opening of the services. We will continue to invest in the for our large capital projects, such as Elizabeth line in late 2019 will temporarily British Transport Police to prevent crime, the Barking Riverside Extension, to be reduce passenger numbers on the DLR in anti-social behaviour and fare evasion. transported by rail. This will reduce the the short term. number of freight vehicles and other We will work with other operational road users on London’s roads. business areas to tackle criminal damage Figure 27: Operational performance

Forecast Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan Figure 26: Safety and security 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Forecast Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan Passenger journeys (millions)

Safety and security measures 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 DLR 122 120 119 120 123 127

Recorded crimes – London Overground London Overground 191 201 208 215 221 225 8.3 8.0 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 network (per million passenger journeys) 30 30 31 32 32 35

Customer satisfaction score

DLR 88 89 89 89 89 89 London Overground 85 85 85 85 85 85 London Trams 89 90 90 90 90 90

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Financial summary • New trains, which will enable service Capital investment portfolio, which chiefly deals with the We continue to target covering the direct frequency increases on the north We have two important projects that renewal and enhancement of the DLR, operating cost of the Rail business with and west London routes during are delivered by the Major Projects London Overground and London Trams. operating income to ensure it is financially peak periods Directorate. These are the Barking sustainable without our operating grant Riverside Extension and delivering the Our investment is focussed mainly on • New longer and more spacious trains from the Government. The Rail businesses new rolling stock for the DLR. The our trains and stations, such as White on routes from Liverpool Street and currently cover their direct operating remainder of our capital expenditure is Hart Lane, and keeping the rail network the Gospel Oak to Barking route, costs, but the cost of increased capacity delivered through the Public Transport safe and reliable. with improved ambience and air- on the London Overground, and the conditioned carriages expected switching of passengers from the DLR to the Elizabeth line, mean that it will As a result, passenger income will rise run a deficit in the short term. As demand by more than 30 per cent over the Figure 29: Capital investment (£m) grows to utilise this spare capacity, the plan period. The increase in services, Rail businesses will return to breakeven predominantly on London Overground, by 2022/23. will also see an expected 12 per cent rise in operating costs. Rail passenger demand will grow every year over the period of the Business Plan, with average annual growth of more than two per cent, despite some passengers switching from the DLR to the Elizabeth line. This is largely due to additional investment on the London Overground, including:

Figure 28: Financial summary (£m) A F Rail

Actual Forecast Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan

2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24

Passenger income 418 430 442 462 508 542 577 Other operating income 13 28 9 5 6 6 7

Total operating income 431 458 451 467 514 548 584

Direct operating cost (413) (456) (504) (508) (526) (538) (562) Direct operating surplus / (deficit) 18 2 (53) (41) (12) 10 22 10,800 stops on the London Trams more homes supported Net capital investment (91) (63) (167) (177) (165) (166) (215) 39 network serving four south by the Barking Riverside London boroughs Extension

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Key projects/programmes

The Barking Riverside housing Barking Riverside Extension development has been selected as This 4km extension of the London London’s first Healthy New Town, as part Overground will see services commencing of a flagship NHS England programme. in 2021. It will support the development This is designed to dramatically improve of 10,800 new homes, a new school, people’s health by integrating health and healthcare facilities, and a new district care services into new developments as centre, and will provide a sustainable they are being built. alternative to car travel in the area. It will also help create high-quality public spaces, and we are working in partnership with the London Borough of Barking and Dagenham to create connections to walking and cycling routes in the area.

DLR rolling stock replacement We are progressing plans to procure new walk-through trains for the DLR network. The new trains will increase capacity, support demand growth and help unlock new homes and jobs around the DLR network. The new trains will feature on-board real-time information, air-conditioning, and mobile device charging points, providing a better customer experience.

White Hart Lane station This station upgrade will deliver step-free access and additional staircases to address capacity issues and improve accessibility. We are working with Haringey to help with the regeneration of the local area via significant public realm improvement and the provision of an east-west underpass. This will enhance travel links for the local community.

Image 26: The Barking Riverside Extension will support new homes and services

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London Underground The Tube network is one of the largest metros in the world and carried nearly 1.4 billion customers across London last year.

Over this Business Plan, we will continue The Northern Line Extension from to invest in vital improvements and add Kennington to Battersea will bring much needed capacity to the network, people closer to one of London’s biggest supporting a shift away from car use regeneration areas. We will also invest in and improving journeys for millions station improvements to ease crowding of customers. at vital locations. Some of our busiest stations, including Bank and Elephant & We are halfway through upgrading the Castle, will be significantly expanded. We assets that need modernising to ensure will have made 15 more stations step-free London remains a hub of connectivity. by 2020, with a further six to be delivered The Four Lines Modernisation, Northern by the end of 2023/24, through the London Line Extension and Crossrail were all Underground step-free programme. Other part funded by government. It is vital step-free stations will be delivered as part that we establish a long-term funding of the Northern Line Extension and the strategy with government to upgrade Elizabeth line programmes. the Piccadilly, Bakerloo, Central and Waterloo & City lines. Our primary focus is on delivering a safe, reliable and world-class Tube network The Circle, District, Hammersmith & City every day. We are renewing our asset and Metropolitan lines will benefit from base and ensuring our trains, tracks and modern signalling equipment that is infrastructure are in good, sustainable replacing some of the oldest technology condition. Every day we operate and on our network. These changes, and the manage 620 trains, 270 stations, more new S-stock trains already in service, will than 1,000km of track, 440 escalators, increase capacity by 33 per cent across 2,255 ticket gates, and more than 16,000 these lines by the end of 2023. bridges and structures.

4 million 433 million Tube journeys train kms run during the every day Business Plan period Image 27: Our Tube investment will increase capacity across the network

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Safety and security means we will see the upward trend in Passenger journeys we will continue to increase our capacity, Our top priority is to provide a recorded sexual offences continue. It is Demand for Tube services is up from running six per cent more kilometres in safe travelling environment for our encouraging to see evidence that victims last year but slightly below the record 2023/24 compared with 2018/19. customers and a safe place to work are more confident to come forward and high in 2016/17. Over the first few years for our staff. London Underground is report, knowing that we – and the police of the plan, passenger journeys reflect Customer satisfaction already one of the safest metros in the – will take action. the overall lower demand assumed Our customers remain at the heart of world and we are building on this by within London and passengers migrating everything we do. Over the next five years, introducing new trains and signalling We are also seeing a significant increase to the Elizabeth line during its phased we aim to improve customer satisfaction systems, and improving how we design in customers reporting incidents of opening from 2019 onwards. Demand is by working on known problem areas on and operate our stations. pushing, shoving and altercations to the expected to increase towards the end of the network and improving the reliability British Transport Police. We anticipate the plan as the Elizabeth line brings new of our services. We work closely with the British that this trend will continue in the short passengers from outside London on to Transport Police to improve safety and term as passenger numbers rise, and the Tube. Over the Business Plan period, security. Our continued commitment then begin to level out and fall, as this to tackling unwanted sexual behaviour problem is addressed through changes in – through encouraging staff and technology, design, passenger behaviour, passengers to report incidents – policing and enforcement efforts. Figure 31: Operational performance in the future

Forecast Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan

Figure 30: Safety and security London Underground forecasts 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Passenger journeys (millions) 1,373 1,373 1,357 1,365 1,394 1,446 Forecast Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan Customer satisfaction score 85 85 86 86 86 86 Safety and security measures 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Excess journey time (minutes) 4.55 4.55 4.50 4.50 4.45 4.45 Recorded crimes per million 11.0 11.8 12.8 13.5 14.1 12.2 Operated km (millions) 83.4 83.6 86.0 87.5 88.1 88.1 passenger journeys

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Financial summary This will be achieved as a result of our Capital investment The London Underground Investment Passenger income is forecast to rise by extensive modernisation programme, London Underground investment Programme is a mix of safety-focused 25 per cent from 2018/19 to 2023/24. This which will transform the Underground consists of two distinct areas: the Major asset replacement and modernisation, continues our lower growth forecast into a more efficient service and a fairer Projects Directorate and the London to achieve efficiencies and make the public due to reduced passenger demand. These place to work. It covers all aspects of our Underground Investment Programme. transport experience better for customers. forecasts assume the Mayor’s freeze on operation, including new organisational TfL fares is maintained until 2020. structures to reduce management layers, The Major Projects Directorate’s significant The portfolio includes work on track, eliminate duplication and improve our modernisation projects include the fleet, step-free access, stations, power We have set ourselves the ambitious ways of working. Northern Line Extension and the major and cooling. Our main focus is on challenge of reducing our direct upgrades at Bank and Victoria stations. keeping London Underground safe and operating costs over the plan period, Through the decisive actions we are Some major projects are described in the reliable and our choice of projects is including absorbing inflationary pressures taking, we anticipate our net direct next section. informed by our asset strategy and asset and service level uplifts. In the past year, operating surplus will grow from £0.7bn condition reports. we have continued to modernise and to £1.4bn over the course of the Business restructure our organisation. We will Plan. The surplus will fully fund the maintain our direct operating costs at investment in capital renewals, as part around £2bn a year, absorbing inflation of the London Underground Investment Figure 33: Capital investment (£m) and delivering service improvements. Programme over the period of the plan.

Figure 32: Financial summary (£m) London Underground

Actual Forecast Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Passenger income 2,632 2,723 2,772 2,828 2,962 3,159 3,410 Other operating income 36 21 33 37 28 20 21 Total operating income 2,668 2,744 2,805 2,865 2,990 3,179 3,431 Direct operating cost (2,125) (2,060) (2,113) (2,068) (2,019) (2,017) (2,017) A F Direct operating surplus 543 684 692 797 971 1,162 1,414

Net capital investment (1,091) (1,051) (1,079) (1,005) (980) (909) (1,157)

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Improving capacity on the Jubilee Reducing our energy use Key projects/programmes Key projects/programmes and Northern lines and carbon footprint Line upgrades Following on from recent timetable Northern Line Extension We are carrying out feasibility studies into changes, which have increased peak energy efficiency, procurement, generation Modernisation of the Circle, The extension, from Battersea Power time services on both the Jubilee and and storage, and new transport to identify District, Hammersmith & City Station to Kennington via Nine Elms, Northern lines, the second phase of this projects that can deliver financial savings and Metropolitan lines will bring Battersea and surrounding upgrade is estimated to be complete by and significantly reduce our carbon Following the introduction of 192 new, areas to within 15 minutes of the City 2022. The upgrade focuses on: emissions. This supports the Mayor’s zero larger, walk-through trains across all four and the West End. It will also enable the carbon agenda and the electrification of lines, the modernisation programme regeneration of the Vauxhall, Nine Elms • Jubilee line capacity improvement: road transport to improve London’s is now in the process of replacing and and Battersea areas, spurring economic up to 32 trains per hour to operate on air quality. improving outdated signalling, power growth by supporting around 25,000 jobs the central section in the peak by the and depot assets across the four lines. and more than 20,000 new homes. end of 2021 This, along with the capacity increase • Northern line capacity improvement: Track is currently being laid in both tunnels from the new S-stock trains in service, 31 trains per hour on the Morden branch and work on the new stations at Battersea will add an overall 33 per cent increase in the peak from 2020. This will also and Nine Elms is progressing well. in capacity, with up to 32 trains per hour enable the introduction of services on in the peak, improving both journey time the Battersea branch once the Northern Increasing accessibility and customer experience. This includes Line Extension is completed We are working towards the Mayoral a 61 per cent increase on the Circle and commitment of delivering 15 step-free Hammersmith & City lines, 24 per cent Major station upgrades stations by 2020, with six more due to increase on the District line and 22 per Bank be delivered by the end of 2023/24. cent increase on the Metropolitan line. Improvements to this vital transport hub, In addition, we are using innovative, used by more than 400,000 people a day, lower-cost ways to make our network Deep Tube Upgrade programme will be finished by 2022. We will see new more accessible. This includes improving Works to increase capacity will begin on station entrances at Bank and Cannon our turn-up-and-go service and our the Piccadilly line with the introduction Street, as well as step-free access, a new online accessibility information, and of a new fleet of trains. These trains southbound running tunnel and platform also through the provision of open data will be delivered in 2023 and replace the for the Northern line and a quicker and sources, such as sharing the number current fleet, by which time it will be easier interchange between lines. This of steps at stations. more than 50 years old. The new trains includes a 96-metre moving walkway to will be in service from 2024. speed up interchange times and reduce walking distances – all greatly improving We remain committed to delivering new access, circulation and interchange, and signalling on the Piccadilly line, as well as delivering a capacity increase of 45 per cent. the other deep Tube lines, but without confirmed capital funding beyond 2020, Elephant & Castle we have decided to work with our Due to be completed in 2024, the upgrade suppliers to review the programme so involves working with a developer to that it delivers in the most efficient way. provide a new Northern line ticket hall We will therefore be discontinuing the with two banks of three new escalators, % current procurement to allow it to reflect and step-free access to the Northern line 45 540 increase in capacity trains run every our latest thinking in the future. platforms. This will support the area’s at Bank station week day morning transformation, which includes up to 5,000 new homes and 5,000 jobs.

100 Our services DRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 101 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business Elizabeth line

Elizabeth line The Elizabeth line will deliver an additional 10 per cent to central London’s rail capacity.

The hugely complex Elizabeth line project December 2018, would be delayed. The brings together multiple infrastructure revised schedule is needed to complete contracts, new trains and three different the final infrastructure and extensive signalling systems. The Elizabeth line will testing required to ensure the Elizabeth add 10 per cent to central London’s rail line opens as a safe and reliable railway. capacity, and the project will boost the economy by an estimated £42bn. The delayed opening is disappointing, but ensuring the Elizabeth line is safe The 10 new stations being built in and reliable for our customers from day central London are nearing completion. one is of paramount importance. We will Escalators, lifts and architectural features continue to work closely with Crossrail are being installed. Work will also continue Limited on the remaining infrastructure to complete upgrades to the existing work and testing needed to deliver the network. This is being carried out by new railway. Network Rail between Paddington and Heathrow/Reading, Liverpool Street and The focus remains on opening the Shenfield, and at Abbey Wood. full Elizabeth line, from Reading and Heathrow in the west to Shenfield and In autumn 2018, Crossrail Limited Abbey Wood in the east, as soon after announced that the opening of the the central tunnels open as possible. central section between Paddington and Abbey Wood, which was due to open in

41 200 million+ accessible journeys each year on the stations Elizabeth line by the end Image 28: The new Elizabeth line will provide extra capacity and boost the economy of 2023/24

102 Our services DRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 103 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business Elizabeth line

Passenger journeys Customer satisfaction Financial summary A net operating surplus will be achieved As the phased opening progresses, The public performance measure Passenger income will grow from £101m from 2021/22, growing to £416m over passenger journeys and operated and customer satisfaction score in 2018/19 to £982m by 2023/24, driven the period. kilometres will rise in step with this over will also increase as the full service by rising demand following the phased the Business Plan period. When fully becomes operational. opening of the Elizabeth line. The growth Capital expenditure will decline as we open there will be more than 200 million in other operating income is mainly move towards a fully operational railway. journeys every year on the Elizabeth line. due to access charges when the central section opens. Additional Crossrail construction costs are being funded through the agreement Our direct operating costs will also that has been announced by the Mayor Figure 34: Operational performance in the future increase, to £955m at the end of the and the Government. plan. This is driven by operational and Forecast Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan maintenance costs resulting from the opening of the central section and the Elizabeth line forecasts 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 growth in new services. In addition, there is the introduction of access charges, Passenger journeys (millions) 55 70 166 240 269 273 which are offset by other income. Customer satisfaction score 83 84 85 85 85 85 Public performance measure (%) 94.25 94.5 94.75 95 95 95 Operated km (millions) 4.2 5.5 10.0 13.6 13.6 13.6 Figure 35: Financial summary (£m) Elizabeth line

Actual Forecast Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan

2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24

Passenger income 83 101 140 436 776 929 982 Other operating income 4 35 181 359 366 378 389

Total operating income 87 136 321 795 1,142 1,307 1,371

Direct operating cost (118) (256) (601) (844) (877) (925) (955)

Direct operating surplus/(deficit) (31) (120) (280) (49) 265 382 416

New capital investment (376) (329) (68) - - - - Crossrail construction investment (1,530) (1,403) (1,196) - - - - Net capital investment (1,906) (1,732) (1,264) - - - -

Income and costs include current TfL Rail services as well as future Elizabeth line services, and include forecast abstraction from other TfL services.

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Other operations

Providing Londoners with cleaner air and a range of high-quality travel options.

We regulate and license London’s taxi and We will also encourage the uptake of private hire industry, with almost a quarter zero emission capable taxis, by providing of a million licences issued, making us the necessary infrastructure and changing largest licensing authority in the UK. We licensing requirements. also oversee the Santander Cycles scheme, manage Victoria Coach Station, license Elsewhere in Other operations we will: London River Services and operate London • Carry out essential upgrades to the Dial-a-Ride, the Woolwich Ferry and the Santander Cycles payment system Emirates Air Line. • Continue to develop the Thames’ The Mayor is taking urgent action to potential for river transport, with remedy London’s failure to meet the legal the introduction of two new hybrid-

NO2 limit. This is also crucial to improving powered Woolwich Ferry vessels public health. The Ultra Low Emission • Continue to deliver on the Zone will be introduced in 2019. This will commitments set out in the Mayor’s Taxi be the toughest air quality standard of and Private Hire Action Plan and keep any world city. This innovative scheme regulatory requirements for the taxi and will improve air quality and contribute private hire industry under review to to making London a zero-carbon city. ensure public safety In October 2020, we will tighten the Low Emission Zone standards and expand the • Carry out essential asset renewal works Ultra Low Emission Zone to the North and to the facilities at Victoria Coach Station South Circular roads in October 2021.

300 All 775 new rapid charging Santander cycle payment points by 2020 terminals are now Image 29: Two new Woolwich Ferries will provide a cleaner, more reliable service contactless

106 Our services DRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 107 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business Other operations

Safety and security We believe that taking forward Operational performance focus on the most popular hire stations, Taxi and Private Hire, Dial-a-Ride, the report’s recommendations is Dial-a-Ride provides essential transport which are in and around parks during Santander Cycles, Victoria Coach Station essential to making national legislation for older and disabled passengers who weekends. July 2018 saw the highest ever and River Services will all be included fit for purpose in these fast-changing are unable to access the mainstream number of hires in a single month, on top in the implementation of the TfL-wide industries. We urge the Government network, and carries more than a million of the most hires for the months of May Security Plan. to move quickly to implement these people each year. In addition, Dial-a- and June since the scheme was launched proposals, which are vital in ensuring Ride Travel Mentors make accompanied in 2010. The safety of London’s taxi and private passenger safety. journeys with Londoners with travel hire industry remains a priority. We challenges, helping them use the We will continue to work with our are committed to improving standards We continue to work closely with the mainstream transport network and partners, including the through effective regulation and rigorous Metropolitan Police Service and the City increasing their independence. Authority, to support safe and sustainable enforcement, to tackle illegal activity, of London Police to tackle taxi and private river passenger growth. With more than as well as unsafe vehicles and driving hire journey-related sexual offences and to Dial-a-Ride services will be Ultra Low 10 million river passengers using the standards. This year we consulted on improve victims’ confidence in reporting Emission Zone-compliant by March 2019 Thames annually, the introduction of new a number of new proposals to further offences when they happen so that robust and we have plans in place to ensure accessible, greener hybrid-powered boats improve the safety of private hire vehicles. action can be taken. compliance with the extended Ultra Low for the Woolwich Ferry demonstrates our Emission Zone in the future. We will continued support for making use of the We have long been calling for a cap on The Mayor’s Taxi and Private Hire Action procure a new booking and scheduling river’s potential to transport people the number of private hire vehicles, Plan includes a number of items where system for Dial-a-Ride in 2020/21, which and goods. legislation to address cross-border we are seeking legislative change to will be both easier to use for our hiring, national minimum standards enhance the safety and security of customers and more efficient for us. We expect around 13 million passengers and statutory definitions for plying passengers using taxi and private hire to use Victoria Coach Station each year, for hire and pre-booked. We were an services. We will continue to work with We are expecting a modest rise in cycle almost as many as use , yet active member of the Department for the Government to bring these forward, hire use as a result of our continued on a site of just three acres. Transport’s Taxi and Private Hire Task and which includes powers to address issues investment in cycling and our renewed Finishing Group, where these important of drivers working outside their licensing regulatory issues were discussed. The area, a cap on numbers and a statutory Chair of the group published his final definition to make clear the distinction report on 24 September 2018. between taxi and private hire services. Figure 36: Operational performance in the future

Forecast Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan

Other operations measures 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24

Dial-a-Ride trip requests scheduled (%) 89.0 89.0 89.0 89.5 89.5 89.5

LRS passenger journeys (inc Woolwich 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.6 10.7 Ferry) (millions)

Cycle hire - number of hires (millions) 10.7 10.8 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.7

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Financial summary We are also working alongside the Port Capital investment the two new Woolwich Ferries (delivered Our Other operations achieve surplus of London Authority and developers to The Other operations division will deliver in 2018/19), renewing our Cycle Hire scheme between 2019/20 and 2021/22, through the deliver other enhancements. the Ultra Low Emission Zone in April 2019, bikes, and continued investment in our taxi introduction of new air quality schemes and further supports our clean air strategy and private hire division. and a focus on operating cost efficiencies Another contribution to the increase through investments in the Air Quality in our current services. in income are a rise in taxi and private and Environment portfolio. We are also Within this division, we are also investing hire fee charges, subject to approval, investing in technology to support charging in Dial-a-Ride, Victoria Coach Station and The rise in operating income from alongside cost efficiencies, so that of electric vehicles through this portfolio. the Emirates Air Line. 2019/20 will be largely as a result of the licence fees cover the cost of licensing Other investments include the delivery of Ultra Low Emission Zone. The Ultra and compliance activity. More Cycle Low Emission Zone will be introduced Hire and London River Services journeys in central London in April 2019 and and higher Emirates Air Line income, then expanded to the North and South contribute to higher passenger and other Figure 38: Capital investment (£m) Circular roads in 2021. This revenue will income on our Other operations towards cover the cost of running the scheme, the end of the plan. plus a small surplus to reinvest in cleaner buses and Dial-a-Ride vehicles, Operating costs include investment to and to provide delicensing incentives for deliver the Mayor’s vision on air quality, the oldest, most polluting taxis. which involves introducing cleaner vehicles, continuing to build a network London River Services have also increased of rapid charge points and funding to pier charges for private charter boat support new borough projects. This is bookings to generate investment needed offset by year-on-year cost reductions to support growth, including improving the driven by contract efficiencies and lower river’s connectivity with other transport. staffing costs.

Figure 37: Financial summary (£m) Other operations A F

Actual Forecast Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan

2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24

Passenger income 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 Other operating income 67 74 249 211 325 234 183

Total operating income 73 80 256 218 332 241 191

Operating cost (159) (166) (210) (198) (275) (251) (243)

Direct operating surplus/(deficit) (86) (86) 46 20 57 (10) (52)

Net capital investment (59) (69) (52) (83) (48) (8) (7)

110 Our services DRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 111 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business Other operations

Key projects/programmes Dial-a-Ride The current ageing fleet will be replaced Ultra Low Emission Zone to meet regulatory requirements, to The Ultra Low Emission Zone will be improve operational efficiency and introduced in central London in April 2019 customer satisfaction. We will invest in and then expanded to the North and South technology, including a new booking and Circular roads in 2021. The zone will require scheduling system. all vehicles to meet minimum emissions standards or pay a daily charge. Santander Cycles We have upgraded the current payment To ensure London’s public transport fleet systems, which expired at the end of 2018, becomes low emission, only new hybrid enabling contactless payments. or zero emission double-deck buses are entering the fleet. Woolwich Ferry We have purchased two new vessels for Zero emission capable taxis the service which are more fuel-efficient, We are assisting taxi drivers in making less noisy and because they are hybrid- the transition to cleaner vehicles, powered, will reduce emissions. The through delicensing payments, new ferries will be in service from 2019. vehicle grants and providing the electric charging infrastructure. Victoria Coach Station We will carry out essential asset renewal Rapid charging infrastructure works to the facilities at the coach station. To support the growing number of zero emission capable taxis and electric Taxi and private hire regulation vehicles, we are building a network of We will continue to improve the safety 300 rapid charging points across London of passengers by introducing new by 2020. regulations where necessary.

Image 30: There are around 130 TfL funded rapid charge points in London, with 61 for zero emission capable taxis only

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Commercial Development

Establishing new and more ambitious plans to grow our commercial income. We will use our assets to generate long- We are on track to start construction on term revenues to reinvest back into our sites that will deliver 10,000 homes and network. We will do more to leverage we already have partners in place for our position as one of London’s largest 7,000 homes. Of the 10,000 homes, by landowners, developing our property, March 2019 planning applications will have retail, advertising, telecoms and been submitted for more than 5,000 consultancy businesses to continue homes on our land. to deliver ongoing income streams. There will be an increasing focus on Build to Rent Build to Rent. The first package of over Because of our position as one of 3,000 homes is currently being marketed London’s largest landowners, we can and has attracted strong interest due to provide places for Londoners to live the scale and location of our sites. We and work, and we can improve the expect to bring forward thousands more connectivity that they need. homes for Build to Rent over the course of the Business Plan. Over this Business Plan we will continue to develop 320 acres of land for housing Advertising and commercial space. By March 2021, We have an advertising audience of 1.5 we will have started on property billion a year. The ongoing modernisation development sites that will support of our digital advertising infrastructure, 10,000 new homes and a million square coupled with a deeper understanding of feet of offices, shops and workspace. our customers via our data, will enable Fifty per cent of all homes brought to us to improve the customer experience, market after May 2016 will be affordable. while driving revenue for us.

50% 1.5bn of homes brought to advertising audience market in this Mayoral per year Image 31: Our advertising estate is one the most valuable in the world term will be affordable

114 Our services DRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 115 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business Commercial Development

Spotlight Our advertising estate is the most valuable Retail Consultancy in the world. We are now halfway through Our retail and commercial properties We have established our commercial the design and installation programme continue to provide ideal locations for consulting and international operations Advanced technologies of more than 750 digital screens, next- London’s small businesses and generate a business. We are currently assessing generation cross-track projection and new sustainable income stream for us. We will opportunities and creating delivery We will make a substantial digital ribbons beside escalators across the expand our retail and commercial property vehicles with like-minded partners. This contribution to improving London’s Tube network, including the Elizabeth line. estates to maximise the potential income, new trading arm will make a material connectivity by bringing 4G and 5G to while supporting the capital’s growth. contribution to our revenue. the London Underground. This will On the road network, we continue to work ensure better access to public sector with partners to develop and install high- We continue to invest in our estate and Project successes to date include trialling property for digital infrastructure quality roadside advertising and we are have a programme to improve our existing Legible City wayfinding signage in Hong while delivering a new revenue stream nearing completion of our large format, properties, while expanding opportunities, Kong and providing engineering expertise for us. underpass digital screens programme. by making the most of our asset base to to metros in Oslo and San Francisco. We enhance revenue. have also agreed to provide advisory We are using our assets to improve We work closely with brands to maximise services to a consortium bidding to run London’s connectivity, which is a the value of our intellectual property, while We have ambitious plans for our retail the Buenos Aires Metro. Mayoral priority. Our tunnels, tracks protecting our brand values. Initiatives, property, repositioning our space to and on-street infrastructure are such as station renaming and experiential attract tenants our customers will like. While we continue to explore further ideal places to install the equipment marketing, where brands can have a At our key gateway locations our plans opportunities, we will also focus on and technology needed to bring 4G physical presence on our estate, help us to are progressing, with major investment developing overarching management and 5G coverage to the Tube, and to provide bespoke, immersive showcases for potential to significantly improve retail plans and making sure that there are improve connectivity above ground. brands. This also entertains and engages environments at South Kensington, Victoria appropriate controls in place to help The infrastructure required to bring our customers on their journeys around and Liverpool Street. us determine which opportunities to mobile coverage to the Tube also has our network. pursue and whether they align positively the potential to support full fibre We are investing in our portfolio of arches with our existing operations in London. connections in homes and businesses to provide the leisure and workspace across London. London needs, with schemes at Wood By setting things up now for long-term Lane, Latimer Road and Kingsland Road. success, we remain confident the trading We have started a competitive To complement our activity we have arm will make a material contribution procurement process to identify a expanded opportunities for temporary to commercial income which can partner and expect to launch the first kiosks to generate revenue in spaces that be reinvested to improve London’s phase of 4G on London Underground would otherwise not be used for this transport network. in 2019. Trials have been successfully purpose. This provides a greater choice of completed on the Jubilee and services to our customers and scope for a Waterloo & City lines and more than variety of small businesses to trade. 250km of cabling has already been installed. We are on track to deliver significant improvements to the digital infrastructure of London while creating a significant new revenue stream. 4G £43.7m mobile coverage worth of sponsorship by coming to the Santander. This is the largest Underground public sector partnership in network the world

116 Our services DRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 117 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business Commercial Development

Financial summary A strategy for head office buildings We will grow our income by investing in is being developed to maximise the property, new business in consulting and efficiency of this significant budget cost. telecoms, and increased media revenues via investment in technology and Our capital programme will continue our expansion into the new Elizabeth line. strategy of retaining long-term interests in our developments to maintain ongoing We will develop our property portfolio revenue, including creating a significant to support the Mayor’s pledge to provide Build to Rent portfolio. This will sit 10,000 homes and his affordable housing alongside targeted disposals, particularly target. We will invest in our retail offering of surplus operational assets. in and around stations to attract new tenants and generate recurring revenue. The Financial summary table shows our The formation of our consultancy arm expected income, but work is ongoing to will generate income by exporting our develop new plans to significantly exceed knowledge to the rest of the world. existing revenue.

Figure 39: Financial summary (£m) Commercial Development

Actual Forecast Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan

2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24

Passenger income ------Other operating income 252 265 277 325 352 384 412

Total operating income 252 265 277 325 352 384 412

Direct operating cost (156) (159) (149) (131) (108) (109) (113)

Direct operating surplus 96 106 128 194 244 275 299

Property receipts 59 100 211 299 53 207 140

Crossrail over station - 221 98 15 80 47 - development

New capital investment (65) (127) (211) (210) (124) (243) (241)

Net capital investment (6) 194 98 104 9 11 (101)

Image 32: We are exporting our knowledge and services across the world, including Legible City signage in Hong Kong

118 Our services DRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 119 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business Professional services

Professional services Reducing our overhead costs while supporting colleagues and customers.

The Professional services division has • Replace existing on-board iBus a range of responsibilities including equipment and replace the analogue traditional support services – such as bus radio system with a digital mobile Finance, Human Resources and Legal – as radio network well as directorates focused on supporting • Invest in internal tools and processes, customers and developing how transport such as improved end user computing will look in the future. experiences and strengthening our network and hosting capabilities Our Customers, Communication and Technology directorate maintains and • Improve our ticketing system, using new develops our digital landscape, including technologies to benefit customers and our ticketing system, and helps customers reduce our revenue collection costs to travel with minimal disruption. • Continue to develop plans for the Bakerloo Line Extension and upgrade, We work on the feasibility of using new trains and signalling to future projects and liaise with local unlock significant housing growth communities, the Government and the Mayor to ensure these projects deliver • Continue to develop proposals for an the right benefits at the right costs, extension of the tram network between before construction starts. Sutton town centre and Merton • Study the feasibility and development of We must do all of this while keeping our the Mayor’s Transport Strategy priorities, overheads as low as possible. Over the including the Healthy Streets Approach next five years of this Business Plan and enhancing the rail network we will:

Expand 1.15m our contactless ticketing downloads of the TfL solutions licensing Oyster and Contactless Image 33: Our Professional services division supports vital services for staff and customers app since launch

120 Our services DRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 121 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business Professional services

Financial summary structures and looking across functions Figure 41: Capital investment (£m) Our financial challenge in Professional to deliver common processes more services is to reduce our core operating efficiently. This has already started with costs year-on-year by continuously the creation of our new Business Services reviewing our working practices to ensure Directorate which combines similar that we are as efficient as possible. We Finance and HR activities into one area. must do this while maintaining vital support to our operational teams and We will continue to maximise our revenue to our customers who depend on us streams by licensing our contactless providing a reliable service. ticketing solution for the benefit of more cities around the world. By 2021/22, our direct operating costs will be £464m. Excluding our one-off Our responsibility is to reduce our projects, like the Bakerloo Line Extension net operating deficit so that income and upgrade, this is £123m lower than this generated from fare payers is used for year. This will be achieved by undertaking the maintenance and development of a further review of our organisational our transport services. A F

Figure 40: Financial summary (£m) Professional services

Actual Forecast Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan

2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24

Passenger income ------Other operating income 50 42 38 43 43 43 44

Total operating income 50 42 38 43 43 43 44

Operating cost (572) (561) (571) (496) (464) (465) (475)

Direct operating deficit (522) (519) (533) (453) (421) (422) (431)

Net capital investment (68) (73) (115) (145) (72) (78) (43)

7,000 £123m calls received every lower direct operating day at our customer costs by 2021/22 (excluding contact centre one-off projects)

122 Our services DRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 123 Appendix

127 TfL Group balance sheet

128 Major new capital investment (net of third-party funding)

Image 34: Our Business Plan will ensure we continue to be a modern, efficient organisation DRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 125 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business

Figure 42: TfL Group balance sheet (£m)

Actual Forecast Plan Plan Plan Plan Plan

Balance sheet 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 Intangible assets 118 98 104 107 99 78 60 Property, plant and equipment 39,274 40,943 43,130 44,170 44,950 45,735 46,600 Investment properties 537 535 452 428 428 439 441 Investment in associate entities 319 327 333 336 344 352 398 Long-term derivatives 12 17 17 17 17 17 17 Long-term finance lease receivables 17 38 40 23 8 1 - Long-term debtors 28 64 48 34 25 19 18 Long-term assets 40,305 42,022 44,124 45,115 45,871 46,641 47,534 Stocks 64 65 65 65 65 65 65 Short-term debtors 561 597 551 454 435 487 470 Assets held for sale 83 27 - - - - - Short-term derivatives 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 Short-term finance lease receivables 8 16 16 17 16 7 2 Cash and short-term investments 1,932 1,568 1,195 1,026 1,429 2,031 2,252 Current assets 2,654 2,280 1,834 1,569 1,952 2,597 2,796 Short-term creditors (2,348) (1,916) (2,167) (2,170) (2,281) (2,277) (2,325) Short-term derivatives (2) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) Short-term borrowings (846) (761) (761) (761) (761) (761) (761) Short-term lease liabilities (70) (70) (31) (29) (31) (36) (40) Short-term provisions (334) (303) (115) (93) (78) (63) (63) Current liabilities (3,600) (3,054) (3,078) (3,057) (3,155) (3,141) (3,193) Long-term creditors (66) (77) (70) (66) (62) (59) (57) Long-term borrowings (9,570) (10,475) (11,276) (11,857) (12,358) (12,859) (12,859) Long-term finance lease liabilities (418) (348) (317) (288) (256) (220) (180) Long-term derivatives (52) (39) (36) (35) (29) (17) (13) Other provisions (84) (50) (42) (37) (32) (28) (28) Pension provision (4,707) (4,705) (4,705) (4,705) (4,705) (4,705) (4,705) Long-term liabilities (14,897) (15,694) (16,446) (16,988) (17,442) (17,888) (17,842) Total net assets 24,462 25,554 26,434 26,639 27,226 28,209 29,295 Capital and reserves Usable reserves 1,790 1,585 916 518 762 1,042 955 Image 35: We will continue to invest wisely and considerately to ensure we deliver the best service for London Unusable reserves 22,672 23,969 25,518 26,121 26,464 27,167 28,340 Total capital employed 24,462 25,554 26,434 26,639 27,226 28,209 29,295

126 Appendix DRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 127 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business

Figure 43: Major new capital investment (net of third-party funding) London Underground Elizabeth line

2019/20-23/24 2019/20-23/24 Project total (£m) Project total (£m)

Modernisation of the Circle, District, Hammersmith & City 617 Elizabeth line (trains and enabling work) 68 and Metropolitan lines Procurement of trains, and some other works, that are paid for Upgrade of the four lines will significantly increase capacity directly by us rather than through Crossrail Limited

Deep Tube Upgrade programme 1,570 Modernisation of the Piccadilly line (new trains and enabling works)

Northern Line Extension 432 Extension from Kennington to Battersea

Major station upgrades (including Bank station) 276 Station capacity projects that are already in progress or starting imminently

Fleet and signalling renewals 627 This includes work on the Bakerloo and Central lines to enable existing train and signalling equipment to continue to operate ahead of renewal via the Deep Tube Upgrade programme and Rail Vehicle Accessibility Regulations compliance works and other works

Station step-free access 145 Additional step-free access schemes beyond those delivered as part of station capacity projects or Crossrail construction

Capacity optimisation programme – world class capacity 88 World class capacity will deliver capacity improvement outcomes for the Jubilee and Northern lines

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Buses, streets and rail Professional services

2019/20-23/24 2019/20-23/24 Project total (£m) Project total (£m)

Healthy Streets (capital spend only) 1,442 273 Work recognising the value of increasing walking, cycling and Customer experience public transport, creating more sustainable, safe, clean and efficient Various renewal and investment projects relating to revenue freight and servicing collection assets (for example, ticket vending machines and ticketing technologies), internal systems, IT infrastructure and cyber security Air quality 149 Capital funded schemes, infrastructure and initiatives that improve air quality. Additional schemes are also funded through the operating account

Silvertown crossing 89 New road crossing at Silvertown via a tunnel under the Thames Commercial Development Capacity optimisation programme - DLR rolling stock 499 Asset renewals, capacity enhancements and supporting infrastructure for new trains 2019/20-23/24 Barking Riverside Extension 104 Project total (£m) Extension of the Gospel Oak to Barking line to Barking Riverside, supporting new housing Commercial property 179 Improving and investing in our retail environments in and around London Overground programme 69 stations and our commercial property to generate sustainable income Largely due to asset renewals of our London Overground fleet and stations. Also includes finalisation of White Hart Lane station Property development 732 Tram programme 52 Developing and delivering our property portfolio, including delivering Asset renewals and infrastructure works to improve reliability the Mayor’s affordable housing pledge, and creating a significant Build and support new development at Croydon town centre to Rent portfolio

Crossrail over station development 155 Developing retail and office space in prime London locations on the Elizabeth line

130 Appendix DRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 131 © Transport for London December 2018 tfl.gov.uk

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