Finance Committee
Date: 13 December 2018
Item: TfL Business Plan 2018
This paper was published with less than five clear working days’ public notice in accordance with Standing Order 33. The Committee Chair has agreed, in accordance with Section 100B(4)(b) of the Local Government Act 1972, that this item be accepted as a late paper as the content of the Business Plan had to be reviewed in light of the funding agreement for Crossrail Limited announced by Government and TfL on 10 December 2018, after the papers for this meeting were published.
This paper will be considered in public
1 Summary
1.1 The Business Plan 2018 sets out TfL’s plans for the five years from 2019/20 to 2023/24.
1.2 Under Standing Orders, the authority sought in this paper is reserved to the Board. On 21 November 2018 the Board delegated to the Finance Committee authority to approve those matters reserved to the Board in relation to the approval of the Business Plan.
2 Recommendation
2.1 The Committee is asked to note the paper, and in accordance with the delegation granted by the Board on 21 November 2018, to approve the TfL Business Plan 2018.
3 TfL Business Plan 2018
3.1 The 2018 Business Plan sets out how TfL will deliver an efficient, affordable and modern transport network for London, and focus its commitment to implementing the Mayor’s Transport Strategy to make London a fairer, greener, healthier and more prosperous city.
3.2 TfL has had unprecedented cuts to its operational funding from the government over the last five years, with an average reduction of £700m per annum. Since April 2018, TfL has become one of the only transport authorities in the world not to receive a direct Government operational grant for day to day running costs.
3.3 This is in addition to managing a number of financial challenges. A subdued economy has slowed down ridership and reduced fare revenue, a trend affecting the country. Whilst TfL’s overall fares revenue is just above forecast for this year, since the 2016 Business plan the five year forecast is approximately £2.1bn lower than expected, due to the wider state of the economy.
3.4 The recent announcement by Crossrail Limited that there will be a delay to the opening of the Elizabeth line has also meant that TfL needs to pay for the additional capital investment, as well as absorb the impact of lost fare revenue. This is expected to be approximately £200m in 2019/20, rising to potentially £600m across the period of the plan, compared to last year’s Business Plan. This assumption will be revised once the new management of Crossrail Limited have completed their work to develop a robust and credible plan for the opening of the Elizabeth line.
3.5 Despite this, TfL is making major progress with efficiency savings ahead of target, and the net cost of operations for 2018/19 forecast to be 20 per cent better than budget, reducing the current operating deficit by more than £200m. This is as a result of tight financial management and will help mitigate some of the revenue impacts from the delay to the opening of the Elizabeth line.
3.6 TfL has a proven track record of delivering against its savings targets – the over-delivery of savings in 2016/17 meant it reduced year-on-year operating costs by more than £150m, and further reduced like-for-like costs in 2017/18. Prior to 2016/17, TfL’s operating costs had increased every year.
3.7 Across the five year plan, TfL will invest in vital improvements including:
(a) completion of the signalling upgrade on the Circle, District, Hammersmith & City and Metropolitan lines, which will add 33 per cent capacity across the four lines by the end of 2023. This will increase the service to 32 trains per hour through the central London sections, meaning customers will wait less than two minutes for a train during peak times. TfL will also begin the modernisation of the deep Tube lines, beginning with the introduction of new longer, more spacious and comfortable walkthrough trains on the Piccadilly line from 2024; (b) continuing to progress major station upgrades to the Tube network, such as at Elephant & Castle and Holborn stations, completing work at Bank station, as well as opening the Northern Line extension to Battersea, which will support 25,000 jobs and 20,000 new homes; (c) making more stations fully accessible across London, including Finsbury Park, Hanger Lane and Wimbledon Park – meaning that more than a third of the Tube network will be step-free by 2020. TfL has also recommended 21 London Overground and National Rail stations across London to receive Access for All funding from Government to improve connectivity for customers with accessibility needs; (d) investing £2.3bn on transformative projects to make London’s streets safer, better places for everyone. Dangerous junctions like Old Street, Vauxhall Gyratory and Highbury Corner will be made safer for all road users and new Liveable Neighbourhoods will be created in local areas across outer London, helping cut polluting car use and encouraging walking and cycling. New high-quality cycle routes in Greenwich, Hackney and Hounslow will also be accelerated to connect communities and help Londoners to live active, healthier lives; (e) sustained investment for key transport improvements across London’s boroughs to help them deliver the Mayor’s Transport Strategy, including actions to reduce traffic, boost safety and increase active travel in their local areas; (f) continuing to make vital radical air quality and environmental improvements across London, including the implementation of the Ultra Low Emission Zone from April 2019 and making the entire bus fleet Euro VI compliant by September 2020. From October 2020, the Low Emission Zone, which covers the whole of London, will also be strengthened to Euro VI – meaning that all buses, coaches and lorries across the capital will need to meet this standard to avoid paying the daily charge. In October 2021 the Ultra Low Emission Zone will be extended to the North and South Circular roads for all vehicles. By the end of 2019 TfL will introduce a further five Low Emission Bus Zones, bringing the total number to 12 and cleaning up the air in high streets across the capital. Through these and other far-reaching measures TfL will continue to play a key role in cleaning up London’s toxic air and addressing the public health crisis that it has caused; (g) introducing fleets of new trains on the London Overground and Docklands Light Railway (DLR), which will increase capacity and support jobs, homes and economic growth across swathes of London. From next year, construction will also begin on building an extension of the London Overground to Barking Riverside, which will support 10,800 new homes being created on one of Europe’s largest brownfield sites; (h) continuing to develop plans to build Crossrail 2 and extend the Bakerloo line, the DLR and tram networks in the next 20 years, which will support the creation of thousands of new homes and jobs across London and the south east; (i) bringing into service the Elizabeth line, which will transform journeys across London and out to Reading and Shenfield, with quicker and easier journeys and mark a step-change in accessibility with 41 step-free stations; and (j) unlocking land for the development of new homes and actively making smarter use of TfL assets – including improved retail units and innovative digital advertising – to generate greater long-term revenue.
List of appendices to this report:
Appendix 1: TfL Business Plan 2018 slides Appendix 2: TfL Business Plan 2018
List of Background Papers: None
Contact Officer: Simon Kilonback, Chief Finance Officer Number: 020 3054 8941 Email: [email protected]
TfL Business Plan Appendix 1
Finance Committee 13 December 2018
1 Our new Passenger income 3% Our Budget assumed a 3% Business Plan is growth in passenger income £4,774m £4,763m built on strong Despite Crossrail delays, we forecast to be very close to achieving this, due to Tube budgetary demand better than expected offset by performance £4,643m weaker than forecast demand in buses.
Over £200m better than 17/18 Budget Forecast Budget this year sets up to face the challenges of Net cost of operations Our Budget assumed a worsening in our net cost of operations of £323m. 19/20 and the rest of the However: Business Plan 17/18 Budget Forecast On track to beat our Budget £246m by this amount
(£645m) Better Overall position better than (£722m) like-for- last year if £228m of General (£891m) like Grant in 17/18 excluded (£968m) £228m general 2 grant Section 1 The challenge
The challenge 1 Our approach 2 How we'll do it Getting the basics right 3 Transforming our core 4 A disciplined capital plan 5 Growing our business 6 Managing the risks 7 Conclusion 8
3 We are adjusting TfL’s level of General Grant to the loss of government grant £1,094m £842m
£628m The current operating £447m deficit is due to the loss of £228m £1bn of General Grant - equivalent to 17% of our 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 current operating income. We have a clear plan to break even by 2022/23 The operating grant is now zero, In 13/14, TfL used this however public transport service £1.1bn operating grant to volume is higher than in 13/14, offset the cost of day-to- and we are progressing towards a day services. sustainable operating account
4 Our passenger Declining transport demand Lower population growth Reduction in our demand income is down Average trip rates (Londoners) Annual change in population Annual growth in journeys LU 1.7% but long-term 2.50 Buses growth is forecast 2.13
Passenger income is 50% 0.6% of our revenue. 2013/14 2017/18 08/09 16/17 12/13 17/18 22/23 We are adjusting to recent dampening of demand, Average Londoner makes 15 per Short-term growth is slowing Year on year growth has declined but long term demand for cent fewer transport trips than Net migration is now negative in the past few years. four years a go. transport is still expected Fewer young Londoners (16-24) However, Tube journeys are This is mirrored by similar national than in 2009 returning to growth – we have just to substantially grow trends. had our busiest ever week. Population is still predicted to grow from 8.8 million to 10.5 Bus demand is still in decline but million is forecast to stabilise.
5 Crossrail is Original Elizabeth line phasing delayed – but May 2018 Dec 2018 May 2019 Dec 2019 will bring huge Paddington and Central section Paddington - Shenfield – Paddington Reading & Heathrow T5 benefits Heathrow Terminal 4 Abbey Wood through running connected
Open Delayed – date to be confirmed The Elizabeth line will increase London’s rail Net operating impact of Elizabeth line on our plan (income and cost) capacity by 10 per cent. 19/20 20/21 21/22 Crossrail’s delay is extremely disappointing but we are committed to (£0.1bn) ensuring this project is (£0.2bn) completed as soon and as c.£0.6bn worse in next three years, mainly due safely as possible. (£0.3bn) to delayed passenger income
6 We need a clear DfT highways maintenance funding 2018/19 operating costs for streets funding source South West £269m for roads £600m South East £80m indirect operating cost North West £40m London receives negligible renewals East of England £480m government funding to direct operating cost maintain its roads, leading East Midlands to a significant deficit that £317m has to be funded from West Midlands other services / income. Yorkhire and Humber A solution to this congested, underfunded North East network is needed. London £20m Income Costs
7 Section 2 Our approach
The challenge 1 Our approach 2 How we'll do it Getting the basics right 3 Transforming our core 4 A disciplined capital plan 5 Growing our business 6 Managing the risks 7 Conclusion 8
8 We plan to break TfL net cost of operations even in 2022/23 Net cost of operations In 18/19, our net cost of operations is half of what it If General Grant removed was in 15/16, if grant is excluded
£500m
£300m
We have moved back our £100m forecast for breaking even (£100m) by one year to 2022/23. (£300m) (£500m) This is due to lower (£700m) demand forecast for our (£900m) services and the delay in (£1,100m) the Elizabeth line. If our (£1,300m) (£1,500m) approach proves overly 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 cautious, we may still Our efficiency is better than the headline improvement as previous break even in 2021/22 years were bolstered by the General Grant, which we no longer receive 9 Key rail modes 2018 Plan Passenger journeys: comparison of recent plans still growing but 2017 Plan 2016 Plan at a slower rate Underground Buses Rail
1,600m 2,600m 450m
1,500m 2,400m 400m Tube and Rail journeys will 1,400m 2,200m 350m grow significantly over the 1,300m 2,000m 1,200m 1,800m 300m Plan. However, compared 2015/16 2018/19 2021/22 2015/16 2018/19 2021/22 2015/16 2018/19 2021/22 to last year’s plan Rail Slower growth based on Demand in line with last year Continuation of current growth is slower reflecting updated information trend. We have responded by current trends and modernising the network. subdued economic growth forecasts. journey reduction by journey growth by journey growth by 2023/24 ▲5% ▼8% 2023/24 ▲13% 2023/24
10 How we will get What changes between 18/19 and 22/23 there 18/19 (£722m)
Renewals (£210m) Building back to steady state
Financing (£146m) Reflects £2bn planned borrowing
Grants and others (£76m) Includes business rates /group items The modernisation of the Underground and Buses (£32m) Restructured network operation of the Elizabeth Rail £8m Maintain break even line are the largest Other operations £76m Break even contributors to our Back office £97m 30% reduction financial sustainability. Comm. Dev. £169m Growth vehicles The chart shows the LU £478m Modernisation change in our new plan Elizabeth line £502m Significant surplus once operational between 18/19 and 22/23. 22/23 £144m
11 We will maintain TfL cash balance (excluding Crossrail account) a resilient cash £3.0bn position £2.5bn
£2.0bn
We are aiming to hold a £1.5bn cash balance equivalent to £1.0bn 60 – 90 days worth of expenditure. £0.5bn
- 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24
We will rebuild our This high cash balance reserves through was all allocated to breaking even and enhancing the network investing prudently
12 We will diversify TfL’s changing funding mix (excluding Crossrail) and grow our 4% 1% 9% income 8% 16% 8%
8% 13/14 50% 18/19 51% 19% 23/24 38% Fares will play an 64% 24% increasingly important role, however we are choosing to grow and diversify our commercial Fares Grants Other income Property/assets Borrowing income to increase our Fares will grow Loss of General Charging and One off benefit in 23/24 is first year from half to two Grant already commercial income 18/19 from TfL is not planning resilience. thirds of income – impacted. doubles in Elizabeth line fleet to borrow. making us more Remaining grant importance to us sale/leaseback will exposed to changes does not grow at over the plan (see not be repeated in the economy rate required section 6)
13 We will deliver Increase in daily trips by 2041 to achieve the 80% the Mayor’s 2041 target: Car - strategy 80% Walking 1.3m mode share Cycling 1.4m
Public transport 2.9m The financial goals above have a purpose – to allow us to efficiently direct our MTS outcomes resources towards achieving the Mayor’s Transport Strategy
Sustainable Active Safe Efficient Green Connected Accessible Quality & unlocking
Healthy Streets & Healthy Good 14 Good Public Transport People Growth Section 3 Getting the basics right
The challenge 1 Our approach 2 How we'll do it Getting the basics right 3 Transforming our core 4 A disciplined capital plan 5 Growing our business 6 Managing the risks 7 Conclusion 8
15 Controlling our Changes in TfL’s operating cost: 15/16 to 17/18 (£143m) £542m day-to-day costs (£274m) £6,240m £6,332m (£33m)
Explained below The initial phase of Transformation delivered annualised savings of 15/16 Growth Inflation One off / Savings 17/18 £542m by the end of exceptional 2017/18, from operating costs model changes and driving LU cost control Surface LU maintenance £110m £55m £20m better value through our (inc. headcount) Transformation modernisation contracts £542m Professional LU 'Fit for the Commercial £95m £50m £20m Services changes Future Stations' Development
saved since Bus tender Tech & Data op Surface £60m £45m programme and £20m model / contracts Investment Prog. 15/16 service reductions 16 Delivering more TfL headcount (full time equivalents) Includes a 13% reduction with fewer 31,213 in senior management people 29,190 28,456
In the past two years, headcount has been reduced through our Transformation 15/16 16/17 17/18 programmes. Over our new Plan, we will reduce back and middle already saved since 15/16 – and keeps office costs by 30%. delivering £111m 30 reviewed, covering £209m every year after (from 10,000 roles £87m one-off investment) areas 17 Budget outturn Passenger income Our Budget assumed a 3% 3% growth in passenger income £4,774m £4,763m Despite Crossrail delays, we forecast to be very close to achieving this, due to Tube demand better than expected offset by £4,643m weaker that forecast demand in buses.
Over £200m better than Budget this year sets up to 17/18 Budget Forecast face the challenges of 19/20 and the rest of the Net cost of operations Our Budget assumed a worsening in our net cost of operations of £323m. Business Plan However: 17/18 Budget Forecast On track to beat our Budget £246m by this amount
(£645m) Better Overall position better than (£722m) like-for- last year if £228m of General (£891m) like Grant in 17/18 excluded (£968m) £228m general 18 grant Going further in Changes in TfL’s operating cost: 17/18 to 22/23 £119m our cost £818m £958m £990m £7,209m reduction £6,240m
Our operating costs grow over the plan but this is only due to growth in our 17/18 Growth Inflation OneOne off off costs / Savings 22/23 services – Elizabeth line, exceptional ULEZ, Overground costs
ULTRA LOW our operating costs EMISSION ZONE the main driver will be this much behind increased lower in 22/23 than costs is introducing £140m 17/18 on a like-for- ELIZABETH LINE new services like basis
19 Section 4 Transforming our core
The challenge 1 Our approach 2 How we'll do it Getting the basics right 3 Transforming our core 4 A disciplined capital plan 5 Growing our business 6 Managing the risks 7 Conclusion 8
20 A clear target for Combined each division £300m surplus subsidy of £850m on Commercial on buses and Development streets
We are pushing every part Affordable of our business to be Double the capital plan with affordable, including surplus from the sufficient cutting costs in our back Tube office so we can protect renewals front-line outcomes
Break even on rail 30% reduction in and other back office cost operations
21 Mitigating the impact of the £1.4bn capital grant from GLA (made up of £1.3bn loan from DfT – paid back over 10 years using MCIL – and £100m cash Crossrail delay Construction contribution from the GLA costs £750m loan facility from the DfT to TfL if capital grant fully utilised.
We are working very hard c.£600m impact on Business Plan (net of all revenue and on reducing the financial operating cost impacts). and customer impact of Operating Pursue implementation of Reading to Paddington services ahead the delayed opening of the of completion of the Elizabeth Line to partially mitigate revenue account central section loss Revenue lost mitigation via business rates repurposing, accelerated savings and working capital improvements
Dedicated Expertise and leadership capacity diverted to Crossrail to ensure issues are fully understood and project is under resources control. Mark Wild appointed Chief Executive of Crossrail
22 Doubling the The Tube has embarked on a significant modernisation programme to surplus from the make the Underground a more efficient service and a fairer place to Tube work. Improving our service will attract riders and grow income.
Direct operating surplus/(cost) 2019 Beyond Reduce back and middle office New organisational structures £1.41bn Maintenance efficiency drive Reduce management layers Eliminate duplication Improved ways of working
How is the £700m surplus used?
£0.54bn LU Renewals: Like for like asset replacements to keep the Tube
£300m going 18/19 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 £400m Other operating account Offsetting financing costs (mostly from previous Tube investment) and loss-making services 23 Right sizing the Bus deficit The bus operating deficit will bus network £680m £723m £699m soon rise above £700m for the first time in TfL’s history. We £445m must make sure that we use this money to deliver a modern, Direct operating surplus/(cost) 08/09 12/13 20/21 23/24 efficient bus service.
17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 Initiatives
Efficiencies in (£0.64bn) Tackle fare evasion contracting process
Reduce service, where No deaths or serious (£0.70bn) demand has fallen the injuries by 2030 most Boost service to Ultra low emissions support mode share fleet by Sept 2020 24 target Developing policy and Our roads are congested and air quality is a key Mayoral initiative. We need long-term solutions to the problems of excess road demand funding solutions and insufficient funding. for roads Direct operating surplus/(cost) Road charging changes 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24
1.ULEZ in c. London 2019 2. Removal of PHV CC exemption ULEZ improvements are Euro VI LEZ standard for heavy focused on improving air 2020 vehicles quality. We do not classify this as road income
ULEZ expansion to N/S 2021 Circular
(£0.19bn) (£0.19bn) Key proposal in the Mayors Next Generation Road User Beyond Transport Strategy to Charging achieving 80% mode share 25 A lean back and middle office 30% reduction to our back and middle office functions by 2021/2022 30% on top of 20% reduction already made in these Direct operating surplus/(cost) functions
17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 A new approach to cost reduction We have previously focused on 'vertical', divisional org change Now focused on end-to-end process and structural integration 'across' the organisation (£0.43bn) Example: Business Services (£0.52bn) Bringing together transactional elements of Finance and Overall reduction less than 30% due to fixed costs HR to standardise processes
26 Section 5 A disciplined capital plan
The challenge 1 Our approach 2 How we'll do it Getting the basics right 3 Transforming our core 4 A disciplined capital plan 5 Growing our business 6 Managing the risks 7 Conclusion 8
27 How we Categorising projects: prioritised our Critical Needed to maintain current safety level; £1.4bn plan or legally required to be safe and operable Projects most aligned to Mayoral and MTS Central outcomes and central to our strategy Average annual new Desirable Projects contingent on funding availability capital investment over We prioritised our capital Business Plan programme to protect Projects that could be deprioritised and are Deprioritise ‘Critical’ and ‘Central’ more discretionary in nature investments, while shaping our organisation Setting ourselves up to better control our Plan £600m to better control projects Clear and New Major Reviewing our Reviewing end- rigorous Projects Finance commercial to-end prioritisation Directorate approach investment delivery Average annual capital renewals over Business Plan
28 Capital plan timeline
2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 ULEZ in central London Northern line extension Barking Riverside extension We will continue to deliver 8 major cycle routes in construction Central London TLRN 20mph ULEZ to N/S Circular one of Europe’s largest Highbury Corner 15 more step-free Tube stations Vauxhall Cross capital investment programme, with significant milestones each year of the Business Plan. This will improve 2022/23 2023/24 Ongoing transport and attract new Bank station upgrade First new Piccadilly line train Liveable Neighbourhoods customers 65% reduction in road KSIs target Elephant & Castle station upgrade Rotherhithe-Canary Wharf Four Lines Modernisation Holborn upgrade commences New DLR and LO trains Silvertown Tunnel
29 Crossrail 2 & BLE development We have been We will be making the case to central government for funding important long-term schemes realistic about long term commitments
We are committed to delivering the major schemes for London Piccadilly line re- Bakerloo line Crossrail 2 outlined in the MTS, signalling extension / upgrade subject to funding being availablle. Annual averages, in 2017 constant prices £5.1bn £5.0bn approximate annual Our Capital Strategy, £3.4bn TfL investment to part of the GLA £2.2bn deliver MTS through Budget, shows our to late 2030s: £3.3bn ambition to invest £4bn of enhancements through to 2038 Yr Yr Yr Yr plus renewals 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 30 Renewals Line Upgrades / Enhancements Line Extensions Crossrail2 Section 6 Growing our business
The challenge 1 Our approach 2 How we'll do it Getting the basics right 3 Transforming our core 4 A disciplined capital plan 5 Growing our business 6 Managing the risks 7 Conclusion 8
31 Property: a new direction London’s leading operator and owner of build-to-rent Ambition
? Growing: Undersupply of housing, trend towards rental £30m - £50m amongst younger individuals Market
£1m One of largest land holders in London, with sites integrated Current Ambition into transport links and we play a key role in London Our USP development planning so know how to develop successfully.
32 Media: transforming our The best partner to promote & understand business in advertising London Ambition estate
? £175m - £200m Growing: Data increasingly critical to retail, finance and logistics £140m Market
One of the few fully immersive advertising environments. We Current Ambition are the primary source for data about London's traffic, growth Our USP and footfall and have the analytical capacity to package it
33 Retail: A growing presence across London A top-five player in convenience and small retail Ambition
? Growing in our sub-sector: As high streets and big units £50m - £75m suffer, smaller units in high-footfall locations buck the trend Market
£25m
We can link small units in busy locations with accurate data Current Ambition on market size and demographics. Our USP
34 Applied Solutions: Leveraging our expertise beyond The world’s preeminent transport authority consultancy London Ambition
? Growing: Transport authorities around world facing similar challenges to TfL Market £20m - £50m
- Approached often for our expertise: we’ve been ahead of the curve in developing solutions to major challenges (e.g. Current Ambition contactless, congestion charge). Have a surplus of resource Our USP today.
35 Section 7 Managing our risks
The challenge 1 Our approach 2 How we'll do it Getting the basics right 3 Transforming our core 4 A disciplined capital plan 5 Growing our business 6 Managing the risks 7 Conclusion 8
36 Planning for Stress tests Impact over five year plan Potential upside uncertainty Potential downside Our stress tests consider a £500m range of impacts on London, £250m including macro political and - economic changes, as well as (£250m) the impact of disruptive (£500m) (£750m) technology on our operations We have developed stress (£1,000m) and network. (£1,250m) tests to understand how (£1,500m) external changes could 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 impact our financial position. How we will mitigate this uncertainty We are developing Re-prioritise our Close monitoring Only committing Review inner Asset recycling mechanisms to be able to capital programme of cash position to to investment London bus options similar to maintain buffer when we are sure service if demand Elizabeth line fleet react effectively. it can be funded falls sale and leaseback
37 Section 8 Conclusion
The challenge 1 Our approach 2 How we'll do it Getting the basics right 3 Transforming our core 4 A disciplined capital plan 5 Growing our business 6 Managing the risks 7 Conclusion 8
38 By 2024, TfL will We are addressing our core We are investing to improve We are growing our be more financial position our core service business efficient, We are effectively managing day- We will make London’s streets We have four key growth areas sustainable and to-day costs and are well ahead of healthier with a clear ambition for each: budget this year. resilient We will give customers a better Property: London’s leading The Crossrail delay and economic public transport experience operator and owner of build-to- factors outside our control force rent us to go further in transforming We will encourage development We face challenges today, our business. We are managing of new homes and creation of Media: The best partner to these risks but must address our new jobs promote & understand business in but we are addressing core business. London them and seizing Together, these investments will To do this, we will: Retail: A top-five player in • Improve quality of life in opportunities for growth convenience and small retail Grow the LU surplus London • Encourage economic growth Right-size the bus network Applied Solutions: The world’s • Increase housing delivery preeminent transport authority Developing policy and consultancy • Attract more customers onto funding solutions for roads our services Make our back and middle office as efficient as possible 39 Appendix 2
Transport for London Business Plan 2018/19 to 2023/24DRAFT Contents About Transport for London (TfL)
Part of the Greater London Authority We are moving ahead with many of family led by Mayor of London Sadiq London’s most significant infrastructure Khan, we are the integrated transport projects, using transport to unlock growth. authority responsible for delivering the We are working with partners on major Mayor’s aims for transport. projects like Crossrail 2 and the Bakerloo Line Extension that will deliver the new 4 Forewords 46 Building a sustainable business We have a key role in shaping what homes and jobs London and the UK need. life is like in London, helping to realise We are in the final phases of completing the the Mayor’s vision for a ‘City for All Elizabeth line which, when open, will add 10 6 Sadiq Khan: My vision for London 48 Building financial stability Londoners’. We are committed to per cent to central London’s rail capacity. creating a fairer, greener, healthier and 8 Mike Brown MVO: Overcoming 56 Borrowing more prosperous city. The Mayor’s Supporting the delivery of high-density, new challenges Transport Strategy sets a target for 80 mixed-use developments that are 58 Long-term capital plan per cent of all journeys to be made on planned around active and sustainable 10 The financial context foot, by cycle or using public transport travel will ensure that London’s growth is 60 Facing our challenges by 2041. To make this a reality, we good growth. We also use our own land prioritise health and the quality of to provide thousands of new affordable 12 Delivering the Mayor’s 62 Developing diversity people’s experience in everything we do. homes and our own supply chain Transport Strategy creates tens of thousands of jobs and We manage the city’s red route strategic apprenticeships across the country. 66 Our services roads and, through collaboration with 14 The strategy and vision the London boroughs, can help shape We are committed to being an employer the character of all London’s streets. that is fully representative of the 16 Making the vision a reality 68 Streets These are the places where Londoners community we serve, where everyone travel, work, shop and socialise. can realise their potential. Our aim is to 18 Healthy Streets and healthy people 78 Buses Making them places for people to walk, be a fully inclusive employer, valuing and cycle and spend time will reduce car celebrating the diversity of our workforce 24 A good public transport experience 86 Rail dependency and improve air quality, to improve services for all Londoners. revitalise town centres, boost businesses 30 New homes and jobs 94 London Underground and connect communities. We are constantly working to improve the city for everyone. This means freezing TfL 34 Business at a glance 102 Elizabeth line We run most of London’s public fares so everyone can afford to use public transport services, including the London transport, using data and technology to 106 Other operations Underground, London Buses, the DLR, make services intuitive and easy to use, 36 Forecasting and trends London Overground, TfL Rail, London and doing all we can to make streets and 114 Commercial Development Trams, London River Services, London transport services accessible to all. We Dial-a-Ride, Victoria Coach Station, reinvest every penny of our income to 38 Forecasting 120 Professional services Santander Cycles and the Emirates continually improve transport networks Air Line. The quality and accessibility for the people who use them every day. 44 Operational trends of these services is fundamental to 124 Appendix Londoners’ quality of life. By improving None of this would be possible without and expanding public transport, we can the support of boroughs, communities make people’s lives easier and increase and other partners who we work with to 127 TfL Group balance sheet the appeal of sustainable travel over improve our services. We all need to pull private car use. together to deliver the Mayor’s Transport 128 Major new capital investment Strategy; by doing so we can create a (net of third-party funding) better city as London grows.
DRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 3 Forewords
6 Sadiq Khan: My vision for London
8 Mike Brown MVO: Overcoming new challenges
10 The financial context
Image 1: Working to improve London’s transport future DRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 5 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Sadiq Khan Transport Strategy sustainable business
and a large programme of major capacity My vision for London improvements, including upgrades to four London Underground lines, the We must keep cutting costs, as we invest Northern Line Extension to Battersea and a major upgrade of Bank station. TfL in London’s future. will continue to develop plans to build Crossrail 2 and extend and upgrade the Bakerloo line. Also, the opening of the Elizabeth line will add 10 per cent to central London’s rail capacity. When I was elected in 2016, I was clear concessions and introduce the Hopper that TfL needed to become leaner and fare, making travel more affordable for I was extremely disappointed and Image 2: Mayor Sadiq Khan more efficient. That’s why I challenged it millions of Londoners. I am convinced this frustrated when it was determined that to undertake the biggest organisational is where TfL’s efforts must continue to be the Elizabeth line would not be ready to overhaul in its history to help put it targeted as, above all else, it exists to serve open at the end of this year. As one of the In the next twelve months, there will on a sustainable financial footing. This the people of our city. joint sponsors, TfL’s immediate attention likely be a review of spending across meant major structural changes to must be on working with the Government the whole of Government. With an remove duplication and reduce tiers of Like any large company, TfL must keep and Crossrail Limited to complete the uncertain future outside the European management, as well as cutting the use revising its Business Plan to reflect the project, so that Londoners and businesses Union, investors need confidence that of expensive temporary contracts and national economic context. The closer we can start to see the benefits of the new London will be supported by genuine and negotiating better deals with suppliers. get to the UK leaving the European Union, infrastructure they have helped pay for. sustained investment. the worse those forecasts become. It is no surprise that TfL’s demand forecasts are We know that delays cost money. Since Under my leadership – and with this A well-functioning considerably lower than they were two the announcement at the end of August Business Plan in place – TfL will continue transport network is years ago. 2018, that the central section of the to bear down on costs so that it can keep the lifeblood of any great Elizabeth line would be delayed, we have London moving and growing despite the I have made clear to TfL’s leadership been in detailed discussions with the very serious financial headwinds. But city, so we must keep where their focus must remain as they Government about how the additional this can only go so far. We have agreed a investing in ours respond to these financial pressures. It cost of this delay to Crossrail can be met. way to pay the extra costs for Crossrail, has already reduced its year-on-year, like- We have accepted that London should but not without extreme difficulty. Over for-like operating costs for the first time pay any additional capital costs over the next year, we will continue to make Now, two and a half years on, it is a very in its history and this must become an time, and the Government has agreed to the case to the Government that it must different organisation. Under our direction, established trend. They must also continue assist with financing those costs in the recognise and play its part in supporting TfL has been restructured to bring to prioritise the delivery of our Transport short term. However, the Government our capital’s economy and investing in together previously disparate functions, Strategy, because the future of transport has refused to provide any support for our infrastructure. with a smaller senior management team. in London cannot be put at risk by the the fare income TfL will forego because It has also substantially reduced its use uncertainty associated with Brexit. of the delay. Given that fare income of consultants and ended an expensive, from the Elizabeth line was part of the ineffective private partnership contract. A well-functioning transport network Government’s rationale for removing is the lifeblood of any great city, so we TfL’s operational grant funding in the first We have slimmed down TfL, while keeping must keep investing in ours. Over the place, which means the Government is a relentless focus on the safety and quality next five years, TfL will launch new safety essentially forcing London to pay twice of the services it runs. Despite losing, on measures, including a world-leading – first, with the removal of the operating average, £700m a year in operating grant Bus Safety Programme; the Ultra Low grant and now in its refusal to assist with from the Government, we have kept our Emission Zone alongside a host of hard- the revenue impact of the delay to the Sadiq Khan promise to freeze TfL fares, preserve hitting measures to clean up London’s air; opening of the Elizabeth line. Mayor of London
6 Forewords DRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 7 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Mike Brown MVO Transport Strategy sustainable business
services and road maintenance, this Overcoming new challenges change to our funding makes us far more exposed to macroeconomic factors We will eliminate our deficit while affecting our city. This first year without grant funding has coincided with tough supporting the Mayor’s vision for travel conditions that have meant passenger numbers are lower in the context of a in London. subdued London and UK economy.
That financial pressure is compounded The Mayor’s Transport Strategy is clear in by the extremely disappointing its objective that by 2041, 80 per cent of For each of the last two announcement from Crossrail Limited Image 3: Commissioner Mike Brown MVO journeys will be made by walking, cycling years, we have reduced our that the opening of the central section and public transport compared with year-on-year like-for-like of the Elizabeth line would be delayed. around 63 per cent today. Travel will be This Business Plan reflects our latest commercial opportunities. Those cost healthier, easier and more affordable for operating costs and will forecasts for the additional capital cost, savings and new revenues will allow us to everyone in London. do so again this year as well as lost fares and commercial keep investing in the new infrastructure income as a result of the delay. London needs to support its growth and There is a great deal to deliver to realise remain the economic engine of the UK. that vision. As the Mayor’s Transport • The delay announced by Crossrail Faced with these external headwinds, Strategy describes, we will only really Limited to the opening of the Elizabeth we have had to be very clear about our This is a challenging but deliverable plan change how Londoners choose to travel line, which affects both capital costs position and what we can afford. for the next five years. Our performance if we transform London’s streetscape. and operating revenue over the last two years has shown Once streets are more pleasant, healthy First, we will prioritise safety. We will we can successfully save money and and accessible, more people will walk and • The absence of any funding from central continue to work towards Vision Zero reduce costs quickly and safely. We must cycle. Work has to continue to deliver a Government for the maintenance of and the elimination of fatalities from our become financially resilient, particularly world-leading public transport network London’s strategic road network transport network. We will continue to as the UK approaches the uncertainty that provides value for money and gets work with the tram industry across the UK of leaving the European Union, and this people to their destination safely and We are now more than halfway into to deliver the Rail Accident Investigation plan will provide that. It will require us quickly. Transport is a big enabler of all the the first financial year in our history Branch’s recommendations on our tram to work constructively with the trade great things that go on in London – so we during which we will receive no direct network in south London, following the unions so that together we can become must do our part to keep our city growing Government operational grant for our tragic overturning at Sandilands two years a more efficient, productive and diverse by improving transport links and so help day-to-day running costs. This means ago. And we will continue to maintain all team. It is the plan we must deliver if to create new homes and jobs. that over the last seven years we have of our rail and road network to a safe level, we want to continue to give London the had our external sources of funding cut despite receiving no share of the financial transport system it needs to cement its There are four major factors affecting in half. We knew this fundamental change support the Government provides for place as a great world city. the outlook over the next five years: was coming and we have been preparing road maintenance everywhere else in for it by making significant changes to the country. • Adapting to the loss of, on average, how we run our organisation: for each of £700m per annum operating grant from the last two years we have reduced our We will eliminate our deficit through central Government, which used to year-on-year like-for-like operating costs our savings plans and by growing our offset the cost of day-to-day services and will do so again this year. non-fare income. Our new growth strategy has a greater focus across our • A subdued national economy, which But as well as the obvious reality of property development, consulting, has affected passenger numbers on simply having far less available income advertising and retail activities to build Mike Brown MVO public transport nationally to continue subsidies of public transport our revenues and make the most of Commissioner
8 Forewords DRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 9 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix The financial context Transport Strategy sustainable business
The financial context Spotlight We are responding to changing economic Meeting the additional costs for Crossrail conditions and the impact of the delay On 31 August 2018, Crossrail Limited cost, and a loan facility from Government to the Elizabeth line. announced to the joint sponsors, to provide further contingency if needed. Department for Transport and TfL, that This package will see London pay for the the Elizabeth line would be delayed. additional costs in full over time. Our 2017 Business Plan set out how we safe and reliable transport services and This is obviously a huge disappointment. would turn an operating deficit into a continue to deliver the Mayor’s Transport Londoners and businesses had made No further capital funding is needed surplus by 2021/22 and restore a sustainable Strategy. However, we need to adjust our plans on the basis of the new line for the train rolling stock contract, as cash balance. This would provide both plans to reflect the financial impact of opening at the end of this year, but the this was arranged for a fixed price. The resilience against external shocks and the prevailing economic conditions and the delay also has specific capital funding trains are already in service on TfL Rail ability to invest without a long-term capital delay to the opening of the Elizabeth line. and revenue impacts. and are ready for dynamic testing once grant. We provided more detail on the first the central section infrastructure has year of this plan in our 2018/19 Budget. We will continue to eliminate our operating Crossrail Limited requires additional been completed. deficit, but we will achieve a net operating capital funding to complete much of In the last year, we have more than surplus one year later than previously the railway infrastructure, including Separately, the delay means we will not delivered on that Business Plan and Budget. planned, in 2022/23. We are reliant on the final fit out of the tunnels and the start receiving fares and commercial We have continued to cut costs and expect steady and sustained investment from construction of the stations in the central revenue from the line until later than to significantly beat our financial targets at the Government to support major capital section. Crossrail Limited must then test expected. We expect many customers the end of this financial year. This means projects. While we are planning to follow the integrated systems to ensure that to continue using existing Tube and DLR that we will have made solid progress in the roll-out of new trains on the Piccadilly the finished infrastructure, signalling services until the Elizabeth line opens. reducing our operating deficit caused by line with new signalling and then to systems and new trains all work together Until a credible and robust schedule the withdrawal of our operating grant upgrade the rest of our deep Tube lines, to deliver a safe and reliable service. As a has been confirmed, we are making a from the Government and changing such large-scale investment will not be joint sponsor, alongside the Government, cautious assumption that our revenue economic conditions. possible without capital funding from we must find a way of funding the forecast will be approximately £600m the Government. We will therefore be additional capital cost of the delay to lower over the plan period. This will be However, in response to a subdued discontinuing the current procurement the project together. offset by our savings and revenue growth national economy, we have had to revise while we work with suppliers to find the programmes, allocating a small portion our revenue forecasts down again this best way forward. These pressures have The interim findings of the KPMG review of our business rates funding to operating year. This means that, over a five-year a similar effect on major station projects, into Crossrail Limited’s finances indicate expenditure, and moving back the date by period, we are now forecasting to receive including the work to transform Camden the capital impact of the delay could which we expect to achieve an operating £2.1bn less in revenue than we had in Town station. be in the region of between £1.6bn and surplus by one year. We will also explore our 2016 Business Plan (excluding the £2.0bn. That includes the £300m already with the Department for Transport Elizabeth line) – this is a reduction of We have no certainty of capital funding contributed by the Department for the possibility of beginning to operate seven per cent. We must also respond to beyond 2020 and over the next twelve Transport and us in July 2018. Reading to Paddington services ahead the cost impact of the delay, announced months we will be making the case of the completion of the Elizabeth line. by Crossrail Limited, to the opening of to Government for confirmed capital The Mayor and the Government have the Elizabeth line. support to enable these critical projects. agreed a financing package to cover Our revenue assumption will be revised At the same time, we will continue our these additional costs, which will see the once the new management of Crossrail In this Business Plan, we set out successful programme of cost reduction Greater London Authority providing TfL Limited have completed their work on a a comprehensive programme of across our organisation, and work to with grant funding for £1.4bn of additional new delivery schedule. investment across London, to deliver create new revenue streams.
10 Forewords DRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 11 Delivering the Mayor’s Transport Strategy
14 The strategy and vision
16 Making the vision a reality
18 Healthy Streets and healthy people
24 A good public transport experience
30 New homes and jobs
34 Business at a glance
Image 4: We will support the Mayor in creating a safer, healthier and more prosperous London DRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 13 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business
The strategy and vision A good public transport experience The right investment will ensure that street-level investment. Making sure the public transport becomes an increasingly right services are available where people Investing in air quality and connectivity so attractive alternative to using a car. need them, reducing overcrowding and London remains globally competitive and an Proper planning for the whole journey keeping fares affordable will help to attractive place to live and do business. will help integrate public transport and reduce car dependency. More 100% More The strategy sets out how London The Mayor has the aim that, by 2041, Keep all bus services step-free access on automatic can prosper as it grows over the next 80 per cent of trips will be made on TfL fares for outer the Elizabeth line refunds for two decades, supported by huge foot, by cycle or using public transport. London maximum improvements to the transport This Business Plan sets out the progress frozen fares system and the Mayor’s vision for we expect over the next five years and, until 2020 active, affordable, efficient and beyond that, to set us on the path to sustainable transport. achieve this ambition. 4 54 Improve London new state-of-the-art taxi rank Underground trains for London accessibility lines to get Overground extra capacity Healthy Streets and healthy people
Investment will focus on improving the and prioritising walking, cycling and public experience of being in the places where transport use will help Londoners live New homes and jobs people live, work, go to school, spend time active, healthy lives and help create a city and travel. Reducing traffic dominance that works well for all of its residents. Transport improvements are vital to local amenities are within walking and the creation of new homes and jobs, cycling distance and public transport is Vision and can ensure that London’s growth available for longer journeys, protecting More Transform supports healthy lives. Our investment the environment and improving quality cycling and junctions for pedestrians and cyclists Zero will help to create communities where of life. walking target for road safety Develop sites for Develop plans for Work towards nobody Purchase only 10,000 Crossrail killed on or by a bus by homes on our land zero-emission (50 per cent affordable 2030 single-deck buses from 2020 since May 2016) Develop the Develop plans to extend the infrastructure for integrated new river electric World’s first More deliveries 2 crossings in line Ultra Low Emission east London Bakerloo taxis Zone launches
14 Delivering the Mayor’sDRAFT Transport Strategy DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 15 2017 (provisional) Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business
Making the vision a reality The future remains uncertain. London’s Figure 1: The expected path to achieving the Mayor’s Transport Strategy aim that economic position is likely to be affected 80 per cent of trips will be made by foot, by cycle or using public transport by 2041 London’s economic success has been by the UK’s exit from the European Union a key part of the increases we have in at least the short to medium term 80 seen in sustainable travel. More people, and there is no clear indication of when Target 2024 - 2041 more jobs and more investment has disposable incomes are likely to increase. 75 meant that Londoners and visitors have Target to 2024 increasingly made sustainable choices for Our investment programme will make 70 visional) how they get around. it easier and more attractive to travel by o sustainable methods of transport. We 65 2017 (pr expect the percentage of trips made on Proposed trajectory (lower bound) We expect the percentage foot, bicycle or public transport to increase of trips made on foot, from 63 per cent currently to around 65 per 60 2017 (provisional) bicycle or public transport cent by 2024, although this could be slightly higher or lower depending on the factors 55 Historic trend to increase to around described above. This is up from 52 per
65 per cent by 2024 – the cent in 2000 and would be the highest this 50 has been in London since TfL was formed. 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 highest in London since Historic trend Target to 2024 Target 2024-2041 TfL was formed Our work over the next five years will enable faster delivery of the Mayor’s The shaded region shows the range of outcomes and risk to achieving the target. Transport Strategy and progress will This Business Plan comes at a challenging also increase if London’s economy time for London, with a continuing and strengthens. We will continue to make unprecedented squeeze on incomes the case for steady and sustained and the uncertainty over Britain’s future investment in London’s future and will relationship with Europe after exiting the carry forward policies that will further European Union. reduce travel by car, with these trips replaced by increased walking, cycling London’s growth has slowed in recent and use of public transport. years. There are fewer new migrants and lower growth in the number of younger working-aged adults – both groups who are less likely to use cars when travelling. The squeeze on incomes and wider changes in customer behaviour have added to a continued decline in travel around London for shopping and leisure activities. 1.0 Target 2024 - 2041 0.9 Target to 2024 0.8 Trajectory upper bound visional) o 0.7 Trajectory lower bound 2017 (pr
0.6 Proposed trajectory (lower bound) 16 Delivering the Mayor’sDRAFT Transport Strategy DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 17 0.5 2017 (provisional)
0.4 Historic trend year 2000 year 2010 year 2020 year 2030 year 2040 Historic trend Target to 2024 Target 2024-2041 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business
Healthy Streets and healthy people Spotlight
Our Business Plan will create Healthy Active travel Streets that promote walking, cycling and public transport, and we will ensure the We are investing record amounts safety and security of everyone in London. in walking and cycling, supporting efficient and healthy ways to get Safety and Vision Zero around the city. Nearly half of car Safety is always our number one priority trips by Londoners could be cycled and we are working to eliminate death in around 10 minutes, and more than and serious injury from our transport a third could be walked in under 25 network by 2041. Together with our minutes. We want people to have partners, we must take systematic action the opportunity to do two 10-minute to achieve the goal of Vision Zero. periods of brisk walking or cycling a day, which is enough to avoid the The Vision Zero action plan, published greatest health risks associated with in July 2018, sets out our approach with inactivity. We want to enable more specific focus on improving the safety than one million additional walking of the road network. Action includes a trips a day by 2024. proposal to lower speed limits on those parts of the Transport for London Road Over this Business Plan, we are Network where people are most at risk. investing £2.3bn on Healthy Streets. We are fast-tracking improvements at a This will fund transformative number of locations currently identified projects to enable more walking in the Safer Junctions programme to Image 5: We will make London’s streets safer as we work towards the Vision Zero target and cycling across London. This reduce danger. includes investment in Liveable Neighbourhoods in local areas and the We are implementing a world-leading buses through the Bus Safety Standard Scheme to reduce the danger posed by Safer Junctions programme to reduce Bus Safety Programme to drive major for the city’s entire bus fleet, as well HGVs. As part of the scheme, in 2024 we road danger. London’s cycle network improvements in safety across the bus as in-depth collision analysis and new, will ban from London’s streets all HGVs will continue to grow, including network and reduce the number of innovative bus driver training. with a zero- to two-star rating under the major new high-quality cycle routes people who are killed or seriously injured Direct Vision Standard, unless they are connecting communities between in, or by, London buses by 70 per cent by We will also launch the world’s first fitted with a Progressive Safe System, Brentford and Olympia, Tower Bridge 2022, against 2005-09 levels. This includes Direct Vision Standard and an associated which could include cameras and sensors. and Woolwich, Tottenham and the development of the world’s safest Heavy Goods Vehicle (HGV) Safety Permit Camden, Hackney and the Isle of We will focus relentlessly on improving Dogs, and from Lea Bridge to Dalston. safety across our rail and Tube networks. We have comprehensive programmes Our new Healthy Streets Activation in place to reduce customer and programme brings together the most staff injuries, and we are making effective and proven measures, such 70% 1 million particular progress in responding to as projects at schools, to support fewer people killed or seriously more walking trips a the Rail Accident Investigation Branch’s people using new infrastructure and injured on, or by, a bus by 2022 day by 2024 recommendations for our tram network help Londoners from all communities in Croydon and throughout the wider enjoy walking and cycling. UK industry.
18 Delivering the Mayor’sDRAFT Transport Strategy DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 19 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business
We have already installed a range of new overall traffic levels by 10 to 15 per cent Spotlight safety measures on the tram network by 2041. and will introduce a further new system that will physically prevent trams We are working with freight operators, Cleaner bus routes for London from speeding in high-risk areas of the London’s businesses and the boroughs to network. The tragedy at Sandilands in develop plans to make this a reality. This November 2016 can never be allowed to means delivering the same or greater Low Emission Bus Zones are a key part happen again. amount of goods with fewer deliveries, of reducing London bus emissions and retiming and re-routing trips to quieter support the Mayor’s wider target of Our work to keep the network safe times and streets, moving freight onto raising our entire fleet to at least the and secure is always done in close rail and water where possible, and ultra-clean Euro VI engine emission collaboration with the Metropolitan helping more last-mile deliveries to be standard by 2020. Police Service and the British Transport made on foot, by cargo cycle and using Police. We will maintain existing ultra low emission vehicles. Together with the Mayor, we are investment in policing dedicated to leading by example by implementing keeping our customers and staff safe We are working with the boroughs 12 Low Emission Bus Zones to tackle across London’s roads and public on the development of their Local the worst pollution hotspots outside Image 6: Cleaner bus routes in London transport network. We will work with our Implementation Plans, which will include central London. We are doing this by policing partners to identify efficiencies actions to reduce traffic in their local concentrating the cleanest buses on the and savings to keep that investment areas. We will continue to investigate dirtiest corridors. As of autumn 2018, All of our scheduled buses travelling focused on providing dedicated policing new, more sophisticated models of road seven zones are live: along the Low Emission Bus Zones on our network. user charging, including the full range will meet at least the cleanest engine of measures described in the Mayor’s • Putney High Street standard, through a combination of More efficient use of our streets Transport Strategy. new vehicles and upgrading mid-life Using the street network more • Brixton to Streatham buses with ultra-clean exhaust systems. efficiently will support London’s Where car trips still need to be made, we growing population and economy. We will encourage alternative models of car • High Road to Green Lanes We are working to launch more zones will continue to improve our traffic use, such as car clubs. These models can and we continue to retrofit specialist control systems, which will help us reduce the need for car ownership and • Camberwell to New Cross equipment to older buses along the tackle congestion, but we must also private parking, improving the efficiency Low Emission Bus Zones and introduce reduce demand on London’s street space. of street space. Making more efficient • Wandsworth to St John’s Hill new buses in line with new contracts. By enabling safe, clean and more efficient use of the street network will improve This is bringing immediate benefits freight trips and encouraging people London’s streets for everyone and • A12 Eastern Avenue to Homerton Road to those areas as each retrofitted to use more space-efficient methods support future growth in population bus emits a fraction of the harmful of transport, we are aiming to reduce and employment. • A5 Edgware Road, Kilburn to emissions, while others are brought up Maida Vale to this ultra-clean standard.
The Low Emission Bus Zones represent The benefits of operating cleaner the most extensive network of low buses will be felt across the capital, emission zones of any major world as the full length of bus routes take % city. Within these hotspots, Londoners them beyond the Low Emission Bus 28% 10-15 have been exposed to some of the Zones and further from the centre reduction in NOx pollution reduction in highest levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) of London. The changes are expected through the extension of the overall traffic pollution, with older buses contributing to reduce bus emissions across the 12 Ultra Low Emission Zone levels by 2041 to road-side emissions. zones by up to 80 per cent.
20 Delivering the Mayor’sDRAFT Transport Strategy DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 21 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business
Improving air quality delivering 300 by 2020. A number of these We continue to invest significant resources points will exclusively support taxis, to clean London’s air. because all newly licensed taxis are now required to be zero emission capable. The Mayor announced in March 2018 that the Ultra Low Emission Zone will be We must lead the way with our own introduced in central London in April 2019. network and have now introduced This will replace the existing T-Charge and seven Low Emission Bus Zones, which will require most vehicle types, including are already recording lower pollution all cars, motorcycles and vans, entering levels on some of London’s dirtiest central London at any time of day to pay a traffic corridors. By the end of 2019, we daily charge of £12.50, with heavy vehicles, will introduce a further five zones - this like lorries, paying £100 unless they meet is earlier than the Mayor’s previous minimum exhaust emissions standards. target of 2020. Every new double-deck bus entering the fleet is now either a hybrid or zero-emission vehicle and We are delivering from 2020, all single-deck buses entering Europe’s biggest electric the fleet will be zero emission. We are double-deck bus fleet, also delivering Europe’s biggest electric double-deck bus fleet, helping us to helping us to achieve become a zero-carbon city and improve a zero-carbon city and air quality. Currently there are more than 150 zero emission buses in London and improve air quality we are working toward making all buses zero emission at tailpipe by 2037. In October 2020 the Low Emission Zone standard, covering buses, coaches With a greater need than ever to make and lorries across London, will be sure that our public transport network strengthened, with vehicles required works for London and enables a healthier to meet the Euro VI standard to avoid city, we are working hard to improve paying the daily charge. every aspect of journeys for Londoners.
The Ultra Low Emission Zone will then be extended to the North and South Circular roads in October 2021 for all vehicles. These schemes will deliver significant improvements to London’s toxic air, reducing NOx pollution by 28 per cent.
We need to support people in choosing cleaner ways to travel, and will continue our investment in rapid charging points,
Image 7: The Ultra Low Emission Zone will launch in April 2019
22 Delivering the Mayor’sDRAFT Transport Strategy DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 23 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business
A good public Making London’s railways work better transport experience In many places the rail network could be delivering more. We have shown on London We are expanding the transport network Overground how we can improve the service to meet the needs of a growing city. for customers and run one of the best The Elizabeth line opening will be services in the country. We will continue supported by bus service changes and to campaign for local rail services from improvements to walking and cycling Victoria, London Bridge and Moorgate to facilities around stations to deliver an be transferred to us. attractive whole-journey experience. We will introduce a fleet of new trains on We will open the Northern Line the London Overground network to increase Extension to Nine Elms and Battersea capacity and frequency. We are introducing Power Station and also extend the new electric trains on the Gospel Oak to London Overground from Barking to Barking route, the extension to Barking Barking Riverside in east London. We will Riverside once complete, the Watford also continue to develop plans to build Junction to Euston route and on services out Image 8: We work in partnership with London’s boroughs and local communities Crossrail 2 and to extend and upgrade the of Liverpool Street to Cheshunt, Chingford Bakerloo line, DLR and tram networks. and Enfield Town. We will also increase capacity and frequency on the Richmond/ Spotlight Transforming the world’s oldest metro Clapham Junction to Stratford route. We will We continue to modernise the Tube to continue to progress our plans to introduce provide faster and more reliable journeys. a new train fleet for the DLR network, Working with London’s boroughs and local communities increasing its capacity and helping people to We will deliver state-of-the-art signalling live and work in east London. It has been a big year, both for transport That is why we have made a commitment on the Circle, District, Hammersmith & in London and for the boroughs, to work more closely with the boroughs City and Metropolitan lines, significantly Modernising our bus network following the local elections in May. and local communities to have a better increasing capacity at peak times. We will With more than six million journeys a understanding of the priorities so more move forward with the modernisation day, buses provide safe, affordable and We are committed to working in close people have an opportunity to get of the Piccadilly line, beginning with accessible travel across all parts of London. partnership with the newly elected and involved in creating plans. new trains to provide more comfortable re-elected borough administrations, as and reliable journeys. We will continue To support the Vision Zero action plan well as the City of London Corporation From holding regular meetings with to make the most of investment on the across the transport system, we are to understand their priorities. elected members and transport Jubilee and Northern lines by running delivering a world-leading Bus Safety officers, to attending a wide variety of more frequent services. Standard. We will invest in bus priority From improving the affordability and neighbourhood forums and community initiatives and the bus fleet to deliver better, accessibility of local public transport group events, we want to connect To maximise this investment, we will more reliable journeys by cleaner buses. to creating healthy streets, new homes the local conversations back into upgrade capacity at some of our busiest and jobs, we will work together to our business. stations, including Bank, and progress the Construction of the Silvertown Tunnel will deliver the many hundreds of schemes scheme at Holborn, while continuing to provide an opportunity to create new cross- that will fundamentally change the way London’s boroughs have told us that add step-free access across the network. river bus links in east London. We will also people live and move around our city. they need stable, long-term funding expand bus services in outer London, with to be able to plan properly and deliver The opening of the Elizabeth line will mark new services like the express X140 from We know that many of these areas are effectively. This Business Plan maintains a step-change in transport connectivity, Heathrow to Harrow, connecting more complex and that we will need to work overall borough funding at the levels of bringing 1.5 million more people within Londoners to high-quality public transport collaboratively to make it all happen. our previous plan. 45 minutes of central London. and supporting the delivery of new homes.
24 Delivering the Mayor’sDRAFT Transport Strategy DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 25 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business
Making rail travel more accessible delivered by the end of 2023/24, two Spotlight We are continuing to invest in years later than planned. We are also improvements to make the Tube more investigating more efficient ways of accessible for all Londoners. Following making stations step-free, such as Our vision for the future of London’s bus network the introduction of step-free access at awarding a new lower-cost lift contract Buckhurst Hill, Victoria and Newbury and building components off-site. Park stations in 2018, there are now 76 The role of the London bus is evolving. step-free Tube stations on the network. Alongside our improvements to Our network sees more than six million This represents 28 per cent of all London accessibility on the London Underground journeys every day with more than 9,300 Underground stations. network, we are seeking funding to make buses, 25,000 drivers and 675 routes. more of London’s rail stations step-free. Finsbury Park and South Woodford will Together with the Mayor, we submitted a Buses connect communities across be the next stations to benefit from recommendation to the Government for London and help everyone to get investment in accessibility and we will the next tranche of Access for All funding around, whoever they are and whatever be building new lifts and walkways to on 16 November. This covers the period they do. To run these vital services, provide step-free access at a further 12 from 2019 to 2024. Our recommendation by 2020, we will subsidise it by more stations. Osterley, Amersham, Harrow- includes 21 stations on the National than £700m a year. This is an increase on-the-Hill, Cockfosters, Mill Hill East, Rail network where we consider that of 25 per cent since 2015/16 and will be Burnt Oak, Debden, Northolt, Sudbury improvements to accessibility should be the highest annual bus subsidy in our Hill, Wimbledon Park, Hanger Lane and prioritised to deliver the objectives of history. We must make sure that we Ickenham will be step-free by spring the Mayor’s Transport Strategy, as well use this money to deliver a modern, 2020. As well as these 15 stations, which as those specified by the Department efficient bus service. are part of the London Underground for Transport. accessibility programme, other stations Our ambitious plans will see us deliver Image 9: We are modernising the bus network are also being improved for accessbility The Department for Transport the world’s biggest and greenest as part of other programmes, such as manages the Access for All fund and bus network outside China. This will the Elizabeth line stations including will determine which stations are help to achieve the Mayor’s vision of By restructuring the bus network, Ealing Broadway and Whitechapel. That successful. A final decision by the more journeys by active, efficient and we can still provide a high-frequency means, by 2020, 34 per cent of all London Department for Transport is expected sustainable services, costing less to run service in central London, while Underground stations will be step-free. in spring 2019. Any stations selected will and attracting more customers. investing in other London routes. This be subject to a design process before is crucial not only to control our year- We are also working to deliver further they are considered for progression to To do this, we must target the network on-year operating costs and deliver step-free stations, including Boston the construction and delivery phase to more effectively – making sure buses an affordable transport system for Manor, Ruislip, North Ealing, Snaresbrook, ensure that the provision of step-free are in the right places at the right times, Londoners, but to enable the network Park Royal and Rickmansworth. These access is economically feasible at the to deliver the best service. There is to be expanded in parts of London stations remain funded but will be station concerned. now a clear opportunity to adapt the where better public transport will have bus network in central London, in the biggest impact on reducing car use response to a combination of lower bus and delivering healthier streets. demand, enhancements to the Tube, improvements for walking and cycling, We are innovating bus service provision, Expanding % and the introduction of the Hopper including trialling a demand-responsive bus services in 34 fare, which enables passengers to make service in outer London and considering of Tube stations will outer London unlimited bus journeys for the price of plans for new tram-like bus transit be step-free by 2020 one if changing buses within the hour. schemes in areas with major growth.
26 Delivering the Mayor’sDRAFT Transport Strategy DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 27 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business
Watford Junction Cockfosters Chesham Cheshunt Epping Figure 2: Improving travel Chalfont & Watford High Street High Barnet Latimer Oakwood Enfield Town Theobalds Grove Theydon Bois Watford Bushey Totteridge & Whetstone across London Amersham Southgate Bush Hill Park Turkey Street Debden Edgware Chorleywood Croxley Carpenders Park Woodside Park Southbury Our investment programme covers Arnos Grove Chingford Loughton Rickmansworth Hatch End Burnt Oak Mill Hill East West Finchley Edmonton Green Buckhurst Hill almost all of our network. Over the next Moor Park Bounds Green Headstone Lane Stanmore Silver Street West Ruislip Northwood Colindale Highams Park Roding Wood Green Valley Grange Hill five years we will complete a number Northwood Hills Harrow & Wealdstone Canons Park Finchley Central White Hart Lane Hillingdon Ruislip Chigwell Hendon Central Ruislip Manor Pinner Turnpike Lane Bruce Grove Queensbury East Finchley of significant infrastructure schemes Uxbridge Ickenham Harringay Wood Street Woodford North Harrow Green Lanes South Tottenham Eastcote Kenton Highgate Crouch Hill Fairlop Kingsbury Brent Cross Shenfield Harrow- Preston South Woodford and kick off more major projects – on-the-Hill Road Archway Manor House Tottenham Blackhorse Barkingside Brentwood Rayners Lane Wembley Park Golders Green Seven Sisters Hale Road Snaresbrook Ruislip Northwick Park Walthamstow Harold Wood Gardens West Upper Holloway Central Newbury transforming people’s experience of Harrow Neasden Gospel South Kenton Finsbury Park Redbridge Park Gidea Park Oak Tufnell Park Stamford Hill South Harrow Hampstead Hampstead North Wembley Dollis Hill Heath Wanstead Gants Hill Romford Arsenal Walthamstow public transport in London. Queen’s Road Leyton Wembley Central Kentish Town Midland Road Chadwell Heath South Ruislip Willesden Green Stoke Newington Leytonstone Kentish Leytonstone Stonebridge Park Finchley Road Holloway Road High Road & Frognal Town West Goodmayes Emerson Park Kilburn Belsize Park Forest Manor Sudbury Hill Harlesden St James Street Caledonian Road Highbury & Rectory Road Gate Park Ilford Kensal Brondesbury West Dalston Leyton Willesden Junction Rise Park Camden Islington Hampstead Chalk Farm Kingsland Clapton Journeys have already been improved Road Seven Northolt Stratford Wanstead Park Kings Brondesbury Caledonian International Finchley Road Camden Town Road & Sudbury Town Kensal Green Canonbury Hackney Maryland Upminster by new trains on the Circle, District, Barnsbury Downs Hackney Swiss Cottage Central Queen’s Park Mornington Dalston Junction Upminster Bridge Kilburn South St John’s Wood Stratford High Road Hampstead Crescent King’s Cross Woodgrange Hammersmith & City and Metropolitan Homerton Hackney Hornchurch St Pancras Haggerston Wick Park London Fields Greenford Alperton Great Kilburn Park Edgware Portland Hoxton Baker Euston Cambridge Heath Stratford lines. By 2023, we will have brought in Road Street Street Angel Elm Park Maida Vale High Street Paddington Bethnal Green Perivale Old Street Pudding Warwick Avenue Marylebone Euston Mill Lane Dagenham East new state-of-the-art signalling on those Warren Street Shoreditch Square High Street Abbey Royal Oak Edgware Road Road Dagenham Heathway Bethnal Mile Hanger Lane Regent’s Park Russell Barbican Green End lines and be on the way to bringing in Acton Square Farringdon Becontree Main Line Westbourne Park Paddington Goodge Bow Upton Church West Ham Park Barking Bond Street Tottenham Upney new trains on the Piccadilly line. Park Royal Street Court Road Ladbroke Grove Bayswater Aldgate Whitechapel Stepney Bow Plaistow East Ham Moorgate Liverpool East Bromley- Street Green Road by-Bow North Ealing Latimer Road Marble Arch Oxford Circus Chancery Lane Barking Holborn Bank Aldgate Devons Road Riverside Hayes & Star Lane Hanwell East White Shepherd’s Harlington Notting Covent Garden Langdon Park Acton City Bush Hill Gate Lancaster Gate St Paul’s We are introducing new trains on the Southall West Green Park Leicester Square All Saints Ealing West Acton North Holland Queensway Hyde Park Corner Tower Canning Ealing Cannon Street Monument Tower Town Broadway Acton Wood Lane Park Piccadilly Gateway Hill Shadwell Westferry Poplar Royal Victoria Overground network and progressing Acton Central High Street Kensington Circus Fenchurch Street West Drayton Shepherd’s Bush Market Kensington Charing Mansion House Cross Ealing Common (Olympia) Knightsbridge Limehouse Blackwall East South Acton Goldhawk Road Blackfriars Wapping India the procurement of new trains on Iver Barons Gloucester West India Emirates South Ealing Acton Town Hammersmith Court Road St James’s River Thames Quay Royal Docks Victoria Park Temple the DLR. The new trains will improve Rotherhithe Langley Northfields Embankment Chiswick Turnham Stamford Ravenscourt West Earl’s South Sloane Westminster Canary Wharf Custom House Park Green Brook Park Kensington Court Kensington Square Slough Boston Manor for ExCeL frequency and increase overall capacity. West Osterley London Bermondsey Canada North Silvertown Water Prince Regent Burnham West Brompton Waterloo Bridge Heron Quays Greenwich Hounslow East Emirates Gunnersbury Greenwich Taplow South Quay Pontoon Dock Royal Albert Hounslow Central Peninsula Surrey Quays Pimlico Southwark Maidenhead Heathrow Hounslow West Crossharbour Beckton Park The Elizabeth line will have opened and Terminals Kew Gardens Fulham Broadway London City 2 & 3 Lambeth North Twyford Hatton Cross Mudchute Airport Cyprus Parsons Green Imperial Wharf we will have begun construction on the Island Gardens Reading Borough Gallions Reach Richmond Putney Bridge King George V Beckton extension of the London Overground to Queens Road Cutty Sark for East Putney Peckham Maritime Greenwich Battersea Vauxhall Elephant & Castle New Cross Gate Power Station Woolwich Southfields New Cross Greenwich Barking Riverside. Kennington Woolwich Nine Elms Brockley Arsenal Wimbledon Park Deptford Bridge Abbey Wood Heathrow Heathrow Peckham Rye Honor Oak Park Terminal 5 Terminal 4 Oval Elverson Road Wimbledon Clapham Wandsworth Road Junction Stockwell Forest Hill Clapham High Street Denmark Hill Lewisham Birkbeck Avenue Beckenham Beckenham Clapham North Sydenham Road Road Junction Clapham Common Dundonald Road Brixton Penge West Harrington Road Clapham South Elmers End Anerley Balham Crystal Palace Norwood Junction Arena Tooting Bec Woodside Tooting Broadway West Croydon Merton Park Colliers Wood Blackhorse Lane
South Wimbledon Centrale Wellesley Addiscombe Reeves Corner Road
Morden Phipps Belgrave Mitcham Mitcham Beddington Therapia Ampere Waddon Wandle Church George East Lebanon Sandilands Lloyd Coombe Gravel Addington Fieldway King Henry’s New Morden Road Bridge Walk Junction Lane Lane Way Marsh Park Street Street Croydon Road Park Lane Hill Village Drive Addington
Key to lines
Elizabeth line Four Lines Modernisation Line extensions New rolling stock programmes
Elizabeth line Circle line Northern line DLR District line Barking Riverside London Overground Deep Tube Hammersmith & City line London Overground Metropolitan line Piccadilly line
28 Delivering the Mayor’sDRAFT Transport Strategy DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 29 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business
New homes and jobs A new cycling and walking crossing between Rotherhithe and Canary Wharf We will work to improve all of our would create a sustainable transport link transport services, which directly support between two Opportunity Areas, that London’s growth. together, are expected to support more than 36,000 new homes and 112,000 jobs. Embedding sustainable travel London can only continue to grow if we We are working with the boroughs to encourage more journeys to be made by develop proposals to support active travel space-efficient modes, such as walking, within suburban areas through our Liveable cycling and using public transport. The Neighbourhoods programme, which will Healthy Streets Approach, which provides help to create higher density development, a framework for promoting active particularly in outer London. travel, is being embedded across our organisation and the boroughs. All new Unlocking opportunities developments will need to encourage As part of this Business Plan, we will walking and cycling, and reduce car use, continue to develop proposals for in order to tackle congestion and help Crossrail 2, so that a Hybrid Bill can be Londoners to live active, healthier lives. submitted to Parliament. The scheme is a catalyst for growth across London, Major new schemes to unlock growth unlocking up to 200,000 new homes and are being developed to deliver Healthy supporting 260,000 new jobs throughout Streets outcomes. An extension and the lifecycle of the project. We continue upgrade to the Bakerloo line is one of the to work closely with Government and best examples of how we could improve Network Rail on this nationally significant connectivity, increase the capacity of the infrastructure project. transport network and reduce journey times to key destinations. This would This year, we received powers from the support development and regeneration Government to build and operate the in southeast London and, in particular, Silvertown Tunnel, a river crossing that the provision of vital new homes. Over will help to address the lack of cross-river the next five years, we will work to connections in east London and reduce refine the proposals to extend and the environmental impact of traffic upgrade the Bakerloo line and explore congestion. We will build the crossing over delivery options. the next five years so that when it opens
Silvertown 10,000 Tunnel homes started on will improve connectivity our land by the in east London Image 10: New schemes are designed to encourage more people to cycle and walk end of 2020/21
30 Delivering the Mayor’sDRAFT Transport Strategy DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 31 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business
Case study from 2024, alongside a package of cross- river public transport enhancements, it will help improve connectivity for residents New homes for London and help support growth and regeneration both north and south of the river. We continue to be on track to start on property development sites that Further east, we will continue to build will provide 10,000 new homes by the case for more public transport links the end of 2020/21. This means that across the River Thames, including a DLR half of the units brought to market extension to Thamesmead, which would since May 2016 will be affordable. We unlock more than 15,000 new homes. already have development partners We will also begin building an extension in place for 7,000 homes and by the of the London Overground to Barking end of this financial year we will have Riverside to support 10,800 new homes. partners in place for all 10,000 homes. In west London, we are continuing to These homes will cater for every develop proposals for a new West London aspect of the market. We will Orbital rail link which will connect a continue to deliver a number of number of major growth areas. In south large sites through our Property London we are working with the local Partnerships Framework and the authorities to develop the Sutton Link, London Development Panel, and which would support growth between encourage smaller providers through Morden and Sutton town centres. the Greater London Authority’s Small Sites Framework and other innovative It was recently announced that our bid routes. We are searching for an with the Greater London Authority for the investment partner to deliver our 3,000 Government’s Housing Infrastructure Fund Build to Rent homes targeting long- was successful. This funding will provide term revenue over capital receipts. additional funding to upgrade the transport network and unlock tens of thousands of We are determined that our projects new housing units and jobs. provide a lasting legacy for London. This is why we are working closely Our Growth Fund continues to support with the Mayor’s Design Advocates to transport infrastructure schemes that make sure we achieve exemplary design lead to more homes and jobs, and standards and that we are embedding unlock development and regeneration the principles of Good Growth by opportunities in some of London’s most Design and Healthy Streets in our important growth areas. This year we schemes. We will help Londoners allocated funding to new schemes that from all backgrounds develop the will help support more than 10,000 new skills that they need to find a job in homes as well as a range of transport the construction industry through and regeneration benefits, including establishing a Mayor’s Construction essential capacity and step-free upgrades Skills Academy hub. to local stations. Image 11: Our schemes will support the development of new homes and jobs across London
32 Delivering the Mayor’sDRAFT Transport Strategy DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 33 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business
Business at a glance How we report on our business Facts and figures
Streets By 2023/24...
Buses new, auto-mooring, 790km 100% 2 accessible, hybrid- Rail powered ferries of track on our rail of the bus fleet and Underground will have Euro VI Underground routes (from 725 km engines (from in 2018/19) 65% in 2018/19) Elizabeth line Other operations 985 32,000 Commercial Dev. trains on our daily cycle hire network (from journeys (from Professional services 970 in 2018/19) 29,000 in 2018/19)
Figure 3: Sources of funding Figure 4: Total costs 2018/19 – projected 2023/24 – plan 2018/19 – projected 2023/24 – plan
£0.8bn £3.2bn £6.6bn £1.6bn £6.4bn £0.4bn £7.3bn £0.6bn (8%) (31%) (64%) (16%) (63%) (4%) (71%) (6%)
£0.7bn £0.7bn £2.0bn £2.9bn (6%) (7%) (19%) (28%) £1.5bn (14%)
£0.7bn £0.2bn £4.8bn (7%) £0.1bn £0.5bn (2%) (47%) (1%) (5%)
Total: £10.2bn Total: £10.3bn Total: £10.2bn Total: £10.3bn
n Passenger income n Grant funding n Other income n Property and n Use of borrowing n Operating costs n Net financing costs n Capital renewals n New capital n Increased cash asset receipts and cash reserves investment reserves
The 2018/19 grant funding includes Crossrail funding sources The 2018/19 new capital investment includes Crossrail capital expenditure
34 Delivering the Mayor’sDRAFT Transport Strategy DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 35 Forecasting and trends
38 Forecasting
44 Operational trends
Image 12: We are planning for London’s future against a backdrop of economic uncertainty DRAFT DRAFT Transport for London Business Plan 37 Forewords Delivering the Mayor’s Forecasting and trends Building a Our services Appendix Transport Strategy sustainable business
Figure 5: Year-on-year growth in Figure 6: Year-on-year growth in Forecasting gross value added (%) employment (%) We make decisions on London’s future transport in a complex environment. A A A A