AEGAEUM JOURNAL ISSN NO: 0776-3808

Assessment of Rainfall Variability trend in District of

Dr. Vilas Vasant Patil Mr. Agastirishi Bharat Toradmal Department of Geography, Shri Shahu Mandir Mahavidyalaya, Parvati, -09 Department of Geography, Dada Patil Mahavidyalaya, Karjat, Dist. Ahmednagar [MS]

Abstract:

Drought is one of the burning issues in the world. Droughts occur when the rainfall is below the normal range. [12] Drought is ubiquitous, but most prevalent in semi-arid-region. Rainfall is most crucial climatic parameter which is effect on development society. In this present study focus on rainfall variability trend of of Maharashtra state during 2000-2019. The study of rainfall is shows trend of rainfall, water scarcity and drought prone condition in Solapur district. The study focus on the five (out of Eleven) tehsils in Solapur district, which is particularly sensitive to drought , , , Sangola, . The main aim of this research is to assess and understand the trend of precipitation in Solapur District. The trend of rainfall is increases toward the , North and and decreases towards the Malshiras, Karmala, Mohol and Pandharpur tehsils.

Keywords: Drought, Water Scarcity, Variability, Standard Deviation.

Introduction:

Water is play vital role in development of various sectors. To meet the various water demand of agriculture, industry, irrigation, hydroelectric power generation and human activities. Agriculture is one of the prime and crucial activity in . Near about 70% Indian population is engaged in this sector. Agriculture is the backbone of India economy. The growth and production of crops in any year is closely related to uncertainty of monsoon. Indian continent have receive 90 to 95% rainfall from South-west monsoon. [06]

The Solapur district comes under rain shadow zone in Maharashtra. This area has frequently experience erratic movement of monsoon, water scarcity and drought condition, because the trend of rainfall is changed in this area. The government of India and Maharashtra declare these five tehsil are drought regions. Drought is a period of time with below normal rainfall. It is also designates as deficiency of precipitation over an extended period of time. In

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this attempt 2000 to 2019 annual rainfall arrangement and use of mean, standard deviation and co-efficient variation of rainfall in Ahmednagar district.

Study Area:

Solapur district is an administrative district in the State of Maharashtra in India. The district lies in the central plateau and some part was covered by Balaghat spurs. The geographical extension of Solapur district is 17° 06' 50” N to 18° 33' 29” N latitude and 74° 36'54” E to 76° 24' 43” E longitude. It is largest district in Maharashtra having an area of 14895 sq. kms.

Fig.1 Location Map of Study Area

This district has comprised by eleventh Tehsils, these are comes under the drought and water scarcity affected region. According to 2011census the population of Solapur is 43, 17,756.

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The district is comes under the rain shadow zone to the east of Western Ghats, the rainfall intensity is decreases toward east side of Western Ghats. Near about 80% rainfall receives from southeast monsoon and remaining 20% rainfall receives from return monsoon.

Objectives:

The present study has been undertaken with following objectives-

 To study the rainfall variability trend by using statistical methods during the year 2000 to2019

Data Base and Methodology:

The present study mainly based on the precipitation data which is collected from Agricultural Department of Maharashtra and Indian Meteorological Department for twenty year. The data has been collected from 2000 to 2019. The variation and trend of rainfall is calculated and represented by mean, standard deviation and Co-efficient in Solapur District. The choropleth cartographic method is used for representation of the mean annual rainfall and co-efficient Variability rainfall map. This map is prepared by using ArcGIS 10.1 Software and annual rainfall variability shows through graph. The information of average rainfall represented in table No. 1. For the data analysis following formula has been used.

Formula=

S.D. C.V. = ------X 100 Mean Where,

C.V. = Co-efficient of variability rainfall. S.D. =Standard Deviation of rainfall. Mean = Mean of Rainfall. Annual Rainfall Distribution Analysis- Rainfall analysis is the fundamental and most common practice for drought investigation. Rainfall is a crucial factor considered in development of agricultural economy in the study region. It is also determined the changing pattern of crop, agricultural practices. Due to uneven distribution of rainfall rise the disparities in the development of agriculture.

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The analysis of rainfall during period 2000 to 2019 reveal that annual rainfall rate is varied in this region, its range found between 439.73 mm in Malshiras tehsil and 588.98 mm in Barshi tehsil. In the west, north, south and middle part which is covered by Malshiras, Karmala, Mohol, Pandharpur and Sangola this tehsil receive very low rainfall and increasing rate of rainfall goes towards the Barshi, Solapur and Akkalkot tehsils. Table No.1: Tehsil wise Annual Rainfall in Solapur District (in mm)

Tehsil North South Akkalkot Barshi Pandhar Mangal Sangola Mal Madha Mohol Karmala Solapur Solapur pur wedha shiras Year 2000 586.3 586.3 745 782.4 554.2 372.6 505.9 263.0 630.7 652.9 940.0

2001 629.8 629.8 568 601 545.8 454.1 482.8 371 367 519 472

2002 582.3 582.3 516 480.7 403.3 583 642 296 355 415.1 364

2003 300.2 300.2 344 338.4 254.6 322.2 377.8 107 308.9 217.6 194.9

2004 603.8 603.8 445.7 488.9 532.8 711.4 379 388.5 469 429.5 522.4

2005 697.6 697.6 588.6 757.5 519.7 656.4 369.6 324.3 631 538.2 571.3

2006 453.1 453.1 551.1 659.6 474.8 623.9 560.6 437.2 487.3 588.1 508.8

2007 582.9 582.9 542.4 916.3 605.3 954.7 716.5 651.1 617.4 638 340.2

2008 634.3 634.3 424.8 670.3 469.2 529.5 499.3 596.5 600.3 595 715.7

2009 680.9 680.9 567.2 706.9 730.8 736.9 683.6 788.7 632.8 519.1 556.3

2010 756.2 756.2 717.2 1030.3 672.1 604.9 615.9 719.2 1118.7 948.8 963.4

2011 610.2 610.2 618 505.6 395.8 309 330.1 436.8 389.5 508.6 538.9

2012 472.8 472.8 556.3 551.6 361.8 287.5 393.8 350 434.5 318.1 258.7

2013 534.7 502.4 601.4 540.1 566.2 437.9 463.5 589.5 591.3 527 510

2014 393.9 387.6 433.3 392.2 371.3 373 492.9 326 340.4 335 384.6

2015 272.98 228.17 246.86 238.58 278.33 227.93 272.46 215.29 289.97 230.16 262.26

2016 547.94 534.86 456.67 593.68 375.01 310.04 448.09 436.7 535.47 318.28 419.62

2017 410.68 454.13 379.62 769.47 511.36 446.68 568.43 530.52 613.4 518.93 567.45

2018 257.5 273.7 465.1 360.6 235.4 182.4 241.6 209.5 191.9 238.6 171.3

2019 628.8 645.8 598.5 589 415.6 560.5 468.4 581.1 509.4 552.7 475.2

Total 10636.9 10617.06 10365.75 11190.7 8719.2 9684.55 9006.38 8354.91 9483.24 8955.77 8797.03 3 Mean 531.845 530.853 518.2875 588.98 458.90 484.22 474.02 439.73 499.11 471.35 463.00 SD 143.00 145.53 121.02 196.84 135.30 196.04 133.40 181.99 200.18 175.46 187.28 CV in % 26.88 27.41 23.35 33.42 29.48 40.48 28.14 41.38 40.10 37.22 40.449 Source: www.agri.mah.nic.in The western and south western part of district comes under low rainfall zone due to these tehsil are affected by water scarcity problem and drought prone condition. The mean of rainfall data for the period of 2000 to 2019 are represent in in table no.1. The annual rainfall of Solapur District is 499.17 mm. The highest rainfall recorded in Barshi 588.98, 531.84, South Solapur 530.85 Akkalkot 518.28, and Madha 499.11, Sangola 474.02, have medium rainfall. The rainfall rapidly decreases towards the 484.22, Mohol 471.35,

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Karmala 463.00, Pandharpur 458.90, and Malshiras 439.73mm. The receiving rate precipitation mainly depends on local climatic condition and physiographic condition of tehsils. [06]

Fig. 2 Mean Annual Rainfall Map Fig. 3 Co-efficient of rainfall Variability Map The table no. 1 and Fig. no. 3 express the coefficient of rainfall variability during the period of 2000 to 2019 in study region. The Malshiras has standard deviation and co-efficient of variability of rainfall is 41.38 percent; it is highest in Solapur district.

Variabilty Trend of Rainfall in Solapur District

900 800

700 600 500 ll in MM 400 300 Rainfa 200 100 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Year Fig.4- Average Rainfall Distribution in Solapur District.

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The lowest co-efficient of rainfall variability is shown Akkalkot tehsil, it is 23.35 percent. The Mangalwedha, Madha and Karmala have same co-efficient variability of rainfall. North and south Solapur have medium coefficient rainfall variability. Table no. 1 and Figure no. 4 show highest rainfall was recorded 809.35 mm in year 2010 it was highest in two decades. The lowest rainfall found in 2015 it was 251.18 mm. The graph represent rainfall is decrease from 2000 up to 2019 it means the trend of rainfall is negative. Rainfall variability Trend in Solapur district- The data obtained on the mean annual rainfall of Solapur district for the period in two decades viz. 2000 to 2019. For these analysis used simple tabular method. As the result of the rainfall variability in Solapur district. During the period 2000-2019, the difference of the actual rainfall and trend of the rainfall in Solapur District of west, south and north part of the drought prone region. This means that the trend is negative. Its result is the reducing water level, deficit of the drinking water and effect on agriculture.

Conclusion:

In the present study is an attempt to evaluate the spatial and temporal rainfall variability of two decades in Solapur District of Maharashtra. The Solapur District has eleven tehsils belong these five tehsils comes under drought prone and experience water scarcity problem. The trend of rainfall is averagely decreased from 2000 to 2019. In year 2003, 2015 and 2018 the area has experienced water scarcity and drought prone condition.

The mean annual rainfall is very high in Barshi tehsil and north and south Solapur has received high rainfall. Madha and Sangola tehsil receive medium rainfall. Malshiras has received low rainfall. The coefficient variation of rainfall is lowest in Akkalkot and very high in Malshiras tehsil. Trend analysis of annual a mean rainfall indicators shows to fluctuation in 20 years. During this time 2002, 2003, 2008, 2011, 2012, 2015 and 2018 shows decreasing rate of rainfall in drought prone region. In 2005, 2007, 2010 show heavy rainfall in Solapur district.

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References:

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