Climate Change: Getting Ready

Results of the Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutions (ACAS) Program in Nova Scotia

Sponsored by the Province of Nova Scotia and Government of Canada

Conference Program

Westin Nova Scotian Hotel March 5-6, 2012 Website www.atlanticadaptation.ca Contact (902) 424-8253 [email protected] Welcome

Premier’s Message Minister’s Message

On behalf of the Province Climate change adaptation of Nova Scotia, it is my planning is evolving from a great pleasure to welcome “good idea” to an “absolute all of you to beautiful necessity.” Most of Nova Halifax for the Atlantic Scotia’s population lives Climate Adaption Solutions along the coastline—and conference in 2012. our homes and infrastructure The science is clear: climate may face more frequent change is happening. That and more extreme weather reality has both challenges events than we expected and opportunities. when we built them. The more accurately we Nova Scotia’s largest source of greenhouse gas emissions understand those risks and vulnerabilities, the better is the electricity sector. That presents the opportunity to prepared we will be to respond. move away from the price volatility of imported fossil fuels to cleaner, more domestic, and more price-stable energy The changes in our climate are not all bad: many people sources. And that’s exactly what Nova Scotia is doing, may relish the idea of a longer, warmer summer and the with North America’s first hard caps on greenhouse gas potential opportunities it presents industries like tourism emissions from electricity, and requiring 40 per cent of our and agriculture. But industries that benefit in some areas energy supply to come from renewable sources, including will have to manage new challenges in others, including wind, biomass, and tidal. protecting water supplies, managing pests, preserving heritage sites from weather damage, and erosion. These are among the most aggressive goals in the world. Yet even if GHG emissions ended today, people would To face these challenges realistically, we need smart, feel the effects of climate change for a long time to come. committed people working together, guided by sound Nova Scotians can expect warmer average temperatures, research. higher sea levels, more extreme rainfalls and storm flooding, and more frequent and extreme storms. Dealing with those That’s why I am very grateful for your participation at this effects will require careful planning, and open dialogue week’s ACAS conference in Halifax. I encourage you to between individuals, communities, and governments at take this opportunity to make connections with others and all levels. help strengthen our adaptation network across Nova Scotia and the entire Atlantic region. That is why we invited you here. Just as Nova Scotia has established itself as a leader in climate change mitigation, Sterling Belliveau there is a similar opportunity to become a leader in climate change adaptation, fuelled by the expertise you are coming together to share at this conference. Environment Minister Thank you for your effort and commitment.

Sincerely,

Darrell Dexter, Q.C., M.L.A. Premier Day One: Monday, March 5

8:00 - 9:00 Registration and Coffee

SESSION 1 The Big Picture – An Update on Climate Change Adaptation Locally, Nationally, and Globally Moderated by Glenn Davis, Atlantic Climate Adaptation Solutions Association (ACASA)

9:00 - 9:10 Opening Address The Honourable Darrell Dexter, Premier of Nova Scotia 9:10 - 9:50 Keynote Address: The Key Role of Adaptation in the Management of Climate Change Ian Burton, Emeritus Professor (University of Toronto), Scientist Emeritus (Meteorological Service of Canada) 9:50 - 10:05 Advances in Climate Change Adaptation: A National Perspective Carrie Spencer, Regional Climate Change Adaptation Programming Manager, Natural Resources Canada 10:05 - 10:25 Nova Scotia Adaptation Overview Will Green, Adaptation Specialist, Climate Change Directorate, Nova Scotia Environment 10:30 - 11:00 Refreshment Break

SESSION 2 Driving Forces – Future Scenarios, Projections, Risks and Analysis Moderated by Donald Forbes, Natural Resources Canada (NRCAN)

11:00 - 12:00 Scenarios and Guidance for Adapting to Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise Réal Daigle, R.J. Daigle Environmental Consulting Brief Response Presentations: Emily Tipton (Municipality of the District of Shelburne) and Neil Comer (UPEI) 12:00 - 12:50 Lunch Break and Guest Speaker (12:30) – Severe Weather and the Insurance Industry Bill Adams, Insurance Bureau of Canada

SESSION 3 The Findings – ACAS Project Presentations 1:00 - 3:00 moderated by Will Green, Nova Scotia Environment (NSE) 3:30 - 5:10 moderated by Carrie Spencer (NRCAN)

1:00 - 3:00 Coastal Characterization and Vulnerability Assessment of ACAS Communities in the Bay of Fundy Danika van Proosdij and Jeremy Tibbets, Saint Mary’s University (SMU) Mapping Coastal Sections Using Full 3-D Digital Laser Scanning Technology to Monitor the Effects of Climate Change Tim Webster, Applied Geomatics Research Group (AGRG) Lidar Processing and Flood Risk Mapping for the Communities of the District of Lunenburg, Oxford-Port Howe, Town and District of Yarmouth, Chignecto Isthmus and Minas Basin Tim Webster (AGRG) Extreme Waves and Wave Runup in Halifax Harbour Under Climate Change Scenarios John Charles, Halifax Regional Municipality (HRM) and Will Perrie, Dalhousie University (DAL) River Flood Risk Study of the Nappan River and River Phillip Incorporating Climate Change Tim Webster (AGRG) The HRM Urban Forest Master Plan John Charles (HRM) 3:00 - 3:30 Refreshment Break 3:30 - 5:10 An Evaluation of Flood Risk to Infrastructure Across the Chignecto Isthmus Bob Pett (TIR) and Tim Webster (AGRG) Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Storm Surge Flooding of Dykelands in the Avon River Estuary Danika van Proosdij (SMU) and Michael Fedak (SMU) A Vulnerability Assessment Tool for Fisheries and Aquaculture Infrastructure Gordon Smith (CBCL) Development of a GIS Based Approach for the Assessment of Relative Seawater Intrusion Vulnerability in Nova Scotia Gavin Kennedy, NS Department of Natural Resources (NS DNR) A GIS Based Sea Level Rise and Infrastructure Assessment: Case Study from the Town of Yarmouth Eric Rapaport (DAL) and Justin Muise (DAL)

5:10 - 6:30 Cocktail Reception, Westin Nova Scotian Hotel 1 Day Two: Tuesday, March 6

8:00 - 8:30 Coffee 8:30 - 8:40 Welcome Address The Honourable Sterling Belliveau, Nova Scotia Minister of Environment Introduction by Sara Jane Snook, Nova Scotia Deputy Minister of Environment

SESSION 4 The Human Impact – The Vulnerabilities, Potential Effects, and Needed Responses to Address the Human Impact Moderated by Kyla Milne, Nova Scotia Environment

8:40 - 10:00 Understanding Community Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity: Incorporating Socioeconomic Considerations into Climate Change Assessments Kyla Milne (NSE) Assessing Social Vulnerability to Climate Change in Nova Scotia: A Case Study of the Town and Municipality of the District of Yarmouth Michaela Cochran (DAL) Climate Change and Emergency Management in Nova Scotia Chris DeBow, Gardner Pinfold Consultants, and Shane Camirand, NS Emergency Management Office (NS EMO) Municipal Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change: An Overview of the Nova Scotia ACAS Municipalities and a Case Study of Yarmouth Alec Johnston (DAL) and Patricia Manuel (DAL) 10:00 - 10:30 Refreshment Break

SESSION 5 Municipality Perspectives – Examining Municipal Impacts and Responses Moderated by Dan Walmsley, NSE/Walmsley Environmental Consultants

10:30 - 12:00 An interactive session to review the experiences of some Nova Scotian ACAS target municipalities with climate adaptation and the ACAS program. Objective is to identify the main challenges and approaches to achieving desired levels of adaptive capacity by Nova Scotian municipalities. Participants: • Andrew Paton (Municipal Mentor Project, SNSMR) • Arthur MacDonald (Town of Yarmouth) • Jeff Merrill (Municipality of District of Lunenburg) • Steve Ferguson (Municipality of the County of Cumberland) 12:00 - 1:00 Lunch break

SESSION 6 Provincial Perspectives – Examining Provincial Impacts and Responses Moderated by Jason Hollett, Climate Change Directorate, Nova Scotia Environment

1:00 - 2:30 Session at which each of the provincial departments summarizes their viewpoints on how climate adaptation will be mainstreamed into the departments operations. Brief Presentations: • Will Green, Nova Scotia Environment • TBD, Department of Agriculture • David Mitchell, Department of Fisheries and Aquaculture • Bob Pett, Department of Transportation and Infrastructure Renewal • Andrew Paton, Service Nova Scotia and Municipal Relations (SNSMR) • Philip Finck, Department of Natural Resources • Shane Camirand, Emergency Management Office

WRAP UP Conference Review and Next Steps Ian Burton A Final Word Will Green

2 Mini-Abstracts

Keynote Speaker Biographies Scenarios and Guidance for Adapting to Climate Change and Sea-Level Rise Premier Darrell Dexter Réal Daigle, R.J. Daigle Environmental Consulting The Honourable Darrell Dexter was sworn in as the 27th Adapting to climate change requires firm scenarios for future Premier of the province of Nova Scotia on June 19, 2009. conditions and guidance on how to interpret and use it. In this He was first elected to the Nova Scotia House of Assembly project Global Climate Model output data available from the as MLA for Dartmouth Cole-Harbour in 1998 and was Canadian Climate Change Scenarios website (www.cccsn.ca) re-elected in 1999 and 2003 and again as MLA for Cole was used to provide future climate scenarios tailored to each Harbour in 2006 and 2009. Before his election as an MLA, specific municipality based on historical climate records and Darrell was a Dartmouth City Councillor. A practicing adjusted for future conditions in three time periods, i.e. the lawyer before he entered public life, Darrell also holds 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. degrees in education, and journalism. He also served in the Canadian Navy as a Command Information Officer for Severe Weather and the Insurance Industry Maritime Forces Pacific, and as sub-lieutenant in HMCS Bill Adams, Insurance Bureau of Canada Yukon and HMCS Qu’appelle. Severe weather is a growing risk that disrupts lives, threatens Minister Sterling Belliveau communities, and costs billions. Insured losses from this natural phenomenon—particularly due to water damage— Before being elected as MLA for Shelburne in the 2006 surged to $1.59 billion in 2011. Find out what the P&C Nova Scotia general election, Sterling Belliveau was a insurance industry is doing to lead severe weather adaptation self-employed fisherman and was twice elected as Warden strategies in the Atlantic region and across Canada. of the Municipality of Barrington. He has served on various boards and committees related to the fishery. In June of 2009, Sterling was sworn in as the Minister of Fisheries Coastal Vulnerability in the Bay of Fundy, and Aquaculture and Minister of Environment. a Macrotidal Environment Danika van Proosdij and Jeremy Tibbets (Saint Mary’s University) Dr. Ian Burton Historically, there has always been a close relationship Dr. Ian Burton is an independent scholar and consultant on between Atlantic Canadians and the ocean; however, under adaptation to climate change and disaster risk reduction, climate change this relationship is evolving. In collaboration working at local, Provincial, national and international levels. with the ACAS project, the overall purpose of this research He is an Emeritus Professor at the University of Toronto, and was to develop a tool which determines the vulnerability of a Scientist Emeritus with Environment Canada. Dr. Burton a macrotidal coastal environment, such as those found in served as co-chair of the Ontario Expert Advisory Panel on the Bay of Fundy, to sea level rise and storm surge based on Climate Change Adaptation, and is now a Lead Author on several physical and anthropogenic parameters. the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Mapping Coastal Sections Using Full 3-D Digital Laser Scanning Technology to Monitor the Effects of Climate Change Dr. Tim Webster, Kevin McGuigan, May Konwongthai, and Nathan Crowell (Applied Geomatics Research Group, NSCC Middleton) The past approaches to assessing coastal erosion have been to exploit aerial photography that is typically acquired on a decadal time scale. In this project we used a ground based laser scanner (lidar) to scan 3 representative coastal areas of NS: Northumberland Strait, Bay of Fundy, Bay of Fundy. At each of the sites there are typical geomorphologic coastal features including dunes, glacial till banks, and bedrock cliffs. These sites have been surveyed in the 2010 and 2011 to assess the erosion rates and document the effects of specific storm events.

3 Mini-Abstracts

Lidar Processing and Flood Risk Mapping for the and the hydrodynamic model will be used to characterize Communities of the District of Lunenburg, Oxford-Port and map the river discharge. The Oxford area on river Howe, Town and District of Yarmouth, Chignecto Phillip is prone to river flooding that is exasperated by the Isthmus and Minas Basin interaction of the estuary with high tides or storm surges. A combined runoff coastal surge model will be combined Dr. Tim Webster, Kevin McGuigan and Candace MacDonald (Applied Geomatics Research Group, NSCC Middleton) to generate flood risk maps. This project deals with the construction of coastal flood risk maps to support communities that are vulnerable to flooding The HRM Urban Forest Master Plan from storm surges and long term sea-level rise. In order to John Charles (Halifax Regional Municipality) generate accurate flood inundation maps along the coastal communities, lidar was acquired and new DEM maps and With ACAS NS funding support, HRM, the Applied flood layers were produced. For areas protected by dykes, Geomatics Research Group, and Dalhousie University have a set of flood layers that represent dyke overtopping and developed a GIS urban forest canopy model. The presentation dyke breaching were generated; research simulated a break will focus on the development of the HRM Urban Forest in the dyke and allowed the water to flood immediately Master Plan and the role that the canopy model has played behind the dyke. Benchmark storms for each of the ACAS in canopy cover research in HRM’s urban forest. communities were used to highlight past flooding events. The return period of such events based on current relative An Evaluation of Flood Risk to Infrastructure Across sea-level (RSL) rise were calculated as well imposed higher the Chignecto Isthmus rates of sea-level rise (73 cm/century and 146 cm/century) Dr. Tim Webster and May Konwongthai (Applied from climate change. Geomatics Research Group, NSCC Middleton), Dr. Bob Pett (Nova Scotia Department of Transportation Extreme Waves and Wave Runup in Halifax Harbour and Infrastructure Renewal) Under Climate Change Scenarios Nova Scotia’s road and rail gateways to Canada are situated John Charles (Halifax Regional Municipality) and Will Perrie within the Chignecto Isthmus—a low-lying area that is (Dalhousie University) vulnerable to rising sea levels and storm surges from both Estimates for extreme waves and wave runup in Halifax the Bay of Fundy and the Northumberland Strait. A lidar Harbour, in the context of climate change, are presented. DEM exists for the dykes, highway and railway along the Utilizing three high water level scenarios, a number of wave isthmus and a thin strip connecting the Northumberland models are used in the Harbour wave simulations to estimate Strait. Critical elevations are mapped to illustrate areas that potential wave runup elevations and shore-based impacts. are vulnerable to flooding. Adaptation options and strategies The sensitivity of these estimates is analyzed for different will be proposed. water level variations, wave propagation directions and shore slope profiles. Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Storm Surge Flooding of Dykelands in the Avon River Estuary River Flood Risk Study of the Nappan River and Michael Fedak, Dr. Danika van Proosdij (Saint Mary’s River Phillip Incorporating Climate Change University), and Dr. Tim Webster (Applied Geomatics Dr. Tim Webster, Kevin McGuigan, Nathan Crowell, Research Group, NSCC Middleton) and Kate Collins (Applied Geomatics Research Group, Over the next century, the upper Bay of Fundy will likely NSCC Middleton) experience a rise in sea level upwards of one metre. The The floodplain of the Nappan River is prone to flooding rise will make extreme water levels more common due to during heavy rainfall events. This problem is further enhanced expected increases in storm surges and associated flooding. by the fact the lower section of the river is a tidal estuary The purpose of this research is to analyze the spatial and in the Upper Bay of Fundy where drainage is controlled by temporal extents of potential storm surge flooding within an aboiteau. The watershed draining into the Nappan River dykelands in the upper Bay of Fundy to assist with planning extends landward for several kilometres where the land cover and emergency management decisions. changes from agriculture to forest. An aerial lidar survey was conducted for the floodplain in 2009 and processed to a high resolution DEM. A watershed rainfall-runoff model

4 Mini-Abstracts

A Vulnerability Assessment Tool for Fisheries and Assessing Social Vulnerability to Climate Change in Aquaculture Infrastructure Nova Scotia: A Case Study of the Town and Municipality Gordon Smith (CBCL Limited) of the District of Yarmouth This presentation will provide an overview of a tool that Michaela Cochran (Dalhousie University) can be used to assess the vulnerability of fisheries and Socially vulnerable people have fewer resources to withstand aquaculture infrastructure in Nova Scotia to climate change. extreme weather events. This study measures indicators of social vulnerability for two ACAS study areas using Social Determinants of Health and Stats Canada dissemination Development of a GIS Based Approach for the areas and comparing results to Nova Scotia averages. The Assessment of Relative Seawater Intrusion Vulnerability assessment facilitates vulnerability reduction through tailored in Nova Scotia adaptation and emergency planning. Gavin Kennedy (NS Department of Natural Resources)

A GIS based approach was developed for broadly evaluating Climate Change and Emergency Management the vulnerability of bedrock coastal aquifers to seawater in Nova Scotia intrusion in areas of the province without municipal water servicing. The scoping approach uses available provincial Chris DeBow (Gardner Pinfold Consultants) and spatial datasets to evaluate relative vulnerability based on a Shane Camirand (NS Emergency Management Office) series of relevant criteria, and can be used to inform land use Climate Change and Emergency Management in Nova Scotia planning and groundwater resource assessment activities. evaluates the extent to which climate change adaptation is integrated into emergency planning in Nova Scotia. We will present findings from our consultation with key stakeholders A GIS Based Sea Level Rise and Infrastructure in order to provide direction on how to better incorporate Assessment: Case Study from the Town of Yarmouth climate change adaptation in our response to the threats Eric Rapaport and Justin Muise (Dalhousie University) posed by a changing global climate. Sea level rise and storm surge will impact coastal communities. Infrastructure that supports coastal development will be Municipal Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change: under threat by the gradual rise in sea level but also periodic An Overview of the Nova Scotia ACAS Municipalities storm surge driven by severe storms. This presentation and a Case Study of Yarmouth describes an analysis completed for Yarmouth, NS overlaying sea level rise scenarios and infrastructure. The work illustrates Alec Johnston and Patricia Manuel (Dalhousie University) the opportunities and challenges that exist in doing this type Municipalities are preparing for the challenges of climate of study. change impacts. Success will depend on their capacity to adapt their policies and practices in many aspects of their operation as an organization and their management and Understanding Community Vulnerability and Adaptive regulation of the land and facilities under their jurisdiction. Capacity: Incorporating Socioeconomic Considerations This presentation presents the results of assessing municipal into Climate Change Assessments preparedness in the municipalities of the ACAS study areas Kyla Milne (NS Environment) as well as a closer look at one example: Yarmouth NS. What makes some communities more resilient than others, when facing similar climate threats? This presentation will explore the role that socioeconomic factors play in undermining or enhancing community capacity to adapt to climate change. It will also explore how accounting for long term changes in socioeconomic trends may help to design more robust adaptation plans.

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