Marine mapping and management scenarios in the Hanö Bight, Sweden AquaBiota Report 2015:01 F. Fyhr et al. Marine mapping and management scenarios in the Hanö Bight, Sweden 1 Fyhr et al. 2015 Marine mapping and management scenarios in the Hanö Bight, Sweden AquaBiota Report 2015:01 ISSN: 1654-7225 ISBN: 978-91-85975-38-9 Disclaimer This publication is produced in the frame of the LIFE+ Nature & Biodiversity project “Innovative approaches for marine biodiversity monitoring and as- sessment of conservation status of nature values in the Baltic Sea” (Project acronym -MARMONI) - LIFE09/ NAT/LV/000238. The content of this publica- tion is the sole responsibility of AquaBiota Water Research and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union. Prepared with a contribution from the LIFE financial instrument of the Europe- an Community and the Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management. February 2015 F. Fyhr et al. Marine mapping and management scenarios in the Hanö Bight, Sweden 2 EDITOR Frida Fyhr AUTHORS Nicklas Wijkmark 1, Frida Fyhr 1, Martin Isaeus 1, Carolina Enhus 1, Ulf Lindahl 2, Martin Ogonowski 1, Anna Nikolopoulos 1, Leif Nilsson 3, Antonia Nyström Sandman 1, Johan Näslund 1, Tomas Didrikas 1, Göran Sundblad 1, Sofia Wikström 1,4, Hedvig Hogfors 1, Karl Florén 1, Peter Slagbrand 5, Ola Hallberg 5 and Petra Philipson 6 FIELD STAFF Karl Florén 1, Tomas Didrikas 1, Johan Näslund 1, Joakim Hansen 1, Ulf Lindahl 2, Jenny Hertzman 2, Leif Nils- son 3, Martin Isaeus 1, Martin Ogonowski 1, Thomas Staveley 1, Åsa Nilsson 1 and Nicklas Wijkmark 1 1AquaBiota Water Research, 2County Administrative Board of Blekinge, 3Lund University, 4Baltic Sea Center at Stockholm University, 5Swedish Geological Survey, 6Brockmann Geomatics Sweden, 7County Administrative Board of Skåne Cover image : Predicted abundance of the polychaetes Marenzelleria spp., based on inventory data from bottom grabs. See full map in Annex 2. Photo: Nicklas Wijkmark F. Fyhr et al. Marine mapping and management scenarios in the Hanö Bight, Sweden 3 Summary Knowledge about the presence and distribution of marine habitats is today re- quested by many sectors. In the 2000s, the demand has increased in line with efforts to protect the marine environment, with clear priority through national and international commitments. Within the county administration and the mu- nicipalities there is a great need for increased knowledge on the marine envi- ronment, both for regional and local coastal planning, and as a basis for super- vision and decision making under the Environmental Code. Maps of the marine environment are of great importance for planning, protection and management, on both a national and an international scale. Further, identification of areas with high conservation values, knowledge on impacts of human activities and changes of eutrophication status on conservation values, and ocean zoning can all provide good basis for MSP. Within the Life project MARMONI as well as the Swedish project “Biogeografisk uppföljning” (monitoring for the Habitats Directive), extensive field surveys of benthic flora and fauna, birds, juvenile fish, pelagic fish and plankton has been performed within Blekinge County and the Hanö Bight. Maps of benthic flora and fauna, fish and plankton have been created using spatial modeling. The sur- veys were performed with different methods such as aerial transects, drop- video, snorkeling, diving, bottom grabs, echo-sounding and small underwater detonations. Data from earlier surveys have also been compiled for use in the modeling. In the spatial modeling, data about the physical environment and anthropogen- ic activities have been used as predictor variables in order to create models and predictions. Coherent maps were collected or created for the variables salinity, temperature, nutrients, chlorophyll, depth, different depth derivatives, Secchi- depth, wave exposure, potentially contaminated areas, proximity to densely populated areas and marine traffic. In total, maps showing probability of presence are presented for 7 species or groups of vascular plants, 9 species or groups of algae, 19 taxa of benthic ani- mals, 3 species of juvenile coastal fish and adult sticklebacks. Abundance-maps are presented for 3 groups of pelagic fish, jellyfish, 2 groups of zooplankton as well as 7 taxa of benthic animals. For several species and groups, maps showing probability of high cover or densities were also created. The total number of created maps is 81. All model results presented in this report are of good or ex- cellent quality. Additionally, conservation values have been identified assessed and mapped us- ing a systematic approach based on years of experience as well as the well- established HELCOM underwater classification system and the scientific criteria for identifying ecologically or biologically significant marine areas in need of protection adopted by the Convention on Biological Diversity. Conservation val- ues maps were produced based on benthic vegetation and animals, coastal fish recruitment areas, wintering waterbirds and seal haul-out sites. Effects on the marine environment were tested through scenario analyses of the quantified effects of construction and operation of a marine wind park and changes of eutrophication status (measured as changes of Secchi-depth) on various conservation values. Further, structural equation modelling (SEM) was used to test fundamental ecosystem mechanistic pathways as well as the influ- ence of important anthropogenic pressures on algae, rooted plants, and blue F. Fyhr et al. Marine mapping and management scenarios in the Hanö Bight, Sweden 4 mussels ( Mytilus edulis ) and the burrowing polychaete (Marenzelleria spp.) in a more holistic and ecosystem-like setting than had been done before. To create a proposal for a network of marine protected areas, information on various conservation values and human interests were analysed with the deci- sion support tool Marxan with Zones. Several ocean zoning maps were pro- duced from three scenarios of protection targets. The maps can be used directly in MSP, as a basis for consultation and strategic decisions concerning the location and design of the establishment of new oper- ations or as a communication and visualization tool of conservation values. They also provide an indication of where it is appropriate to investigate the environ- mental impact more thoroughly during permit applications, such as EIA's. The spatially distributed field data and map layers of environmental parameters were essential to develop good model results and identify conservation values. But they are also strongly useful in themselves as information and for further analyses of the marine environment. Spatial mapping of relevant marine conservation values are recommended for all EU member states, as a basis for MSP, and application of marine ecosystem based management in the Baltic Sea. F. Fyhr et al. Marine mapping and management scenarios in the Hanö Bight, Sweden 5 Contents 1 Background and aim ................................................................................... 9 1.1 Nature conservation and management ............................................... 10 1.2 Decision support for planning .............................................................. 11 1.3 Marine Spatial Planning in Sweden ...................................................... 11 1.4 Decision support for restorations and other management measures .. 12 1.5 Fisheries management ........................................................................ 12 1.6 Further surveys and monitoring programs ........................................... 12 1.7 The maps ............................................................................................. 12 1.7.1 Resolution of species predictions and maps.................................. 13 2 Compilation of existing biological data ...................................................... 14 3 Biological surveys ....................................................................................... 15 3.1 Vegetation ........................................................................................... 15 3.1.1 Drop-video surveys ....................................................................... 15 3.1.2 Snorkelling in association with drop-video surveys ....................... 16 3.1.3 Diving transects ............................................................................ 16 3.1.4 Species that have not been modelled ........................................... 16 3.2 Zoobenthos ......................................................................................... 17 3.3 Young of the year fish in coastal recruitment areas ............................. 17 3.4 Pelagic fish and plankton ..................................................................... 19 3.4.1 Fish ............................................................................................... 21 3.4.2 Other organisms ........................................................................... 21 3.5 Birds.................................................................................................... 22 3.5.1 Inventory method – breeding birds ............................................... 23 3.5.2 Inventory method – wintering birds ............................................. 24 3.5.3 Result – breeding birds ................................................................ 26 3.5.4 Result – wintering birds ...............................................................