Major Hurricane Nicole

eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory

Major Hurricane Nicole Information from NHC Advisory 37A, 8:00 AM AST Thu October 13, 2016 On the forecast track, the core of Nicole will pass near Bermuda later this morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph with higher gusts. Nicole is an extremely dangerous category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although a gradual weakening is forecast, Nicole is expected to remain a major hurricane when it moves near Bermuda today.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 125 mph Position Relative to 55 miles SSW of Bermuda Speed: (category 3) Land: Est. Time & Region: n/a Min Central Pressure: 953 mb Coordinates: 31.6 N, 65.2 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 175 miles Bearing/Speed: NNE or 30 Degrees at 15 mph n/a Winds Extent: Wind Speed:

Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right) both show Nicole approaching Bermuda later today at Major Hurricane strength (110+ mph winds), then continuing to move to the northeast away from land. ■ Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda in a few hours. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring on the island. Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda today. ■ A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in Bermuda. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. ■ Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 8 inches over Bermuda through this evening. ■ Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the next few days, and will spread northward along the United States east coast from the Carolinas northward through the next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents.

Forecast Track for Hurricane Nicole Forecast Wind-field for Hurricane Nicole (National Hurricane Center) (Based on NHC at 06:00 UTC from Kinetic Analysis Corp.)

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Coastal Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning – meaning that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours- is in effect for Bermuda.

Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2016 Atlantic Season to Date 2016 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 16

Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Tropical Storm avg '50‐'11 Tropical Storm 2016 TS Nicole Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Hurricane 2016 TS Matthew 2016 year to date (1/1/16 – 10/12/16) 14 6 3 Major Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Major Hurricane 2016 12 TS Lisa

2015 year to date (1/1/15 – 10/12/15) 10 3 2 TS Karl TS Julia 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 TS Ian 8 TS Hermine 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 TS Gaston TS Fiona HU Nicole 2016 CSU season forecasts 15 6 2 TS Earl HU Matthew 4 TS Danielle HU Hermine (Colorado State University at July 1,‘16) TS Colin HU Gaston M Nicole M Matthew 2016 NOAA season forecasts 12-17 5-8 2-4 TS Bonnie HU Earl M. Gaston (Aug 11, 2016) 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2016 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Nicole is the fourteenth named storm, sixth hurricane, and third The graph above shows 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and major hurricane of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Last year average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It saw ten named storms by October 13, one of which was major shows, for example, that Nicole became the season’s third major hurricane Joaquine. hurricane on October 12. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3- 5).

New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days. Average Risk Remaining in the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) both peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at October 13 is 13% for all hurricanes and 9% for major hurricanes.

National Hurricane Center Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900 Tropical Weather Outlook on October 13, 2016 60% 100%

48% 80%

36% 60%

24% 40%

12% 20% Average Daily Risk Daily Average Average RemainingRisk 0% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5)