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GAIN Report Global Agriculture Information Network Foreign Agricultural Service GAIN Report Global Agriculture Information Network Voluntary Report -public distribution Date: 10/06/1998 GAIN Report #UP8011 Ukraine Grain and Feed Grain Voluntary Update 1998 Prepared by: Larry L. Panasuk U.S. Embassy Drafted by: Dmitri S. Prikhodko Report Highlights: Ukraine’s 1998 grain output will be less because of a further expected decrease in corn production. With this reduction is anticipated smaller overall grain exports or less feeding of grain to livestock. Includes PSD changes: Yes Includes Trade Matrix: No Voluntary Report , UP GAIN Report #UP8011 Page 1 of 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Ukrainian 1998 grain production (wheat, barley, corn, rye, oats, buckwheat, millet, rice and peas) is being lowered once again to approximately 27 million tons because of a further decrease in corn output. Corn was much more severely damaged by hot and dry weather this summer throughout east and southeast Ukraine. This will change the balance of grain in Ukraine because less corn and wheat will be available for feed and export. PRODUCTION The overall estimate of Ukrainian grain is being lowered further to 27.3 million tons because of a further expected reduction in corn output, now estimated at 2.0 million tons -- 50 percent less that the early season estimate. The area finally harvested for grain has been reduced as much of the area in corn was cut for silage, expecting that it was not worth to be harvested for grain. The total harvested corn area is not expected to exceed 900,000 hectares, with average yield of 2.2 tons per hectare. CONSUMPTION/TRADE Despite an expected lower corn crop, overall feeding of grain for livestock was not reduced from the previous projection of around 11.5 million tons. Instead, expectations for wheat and corn exports were reduced because of low world prices and little movement of Ukrainian grain thus far. It remains to be seen, however, if the state rules instead that grain under its control is exported or made available to also the private sector, who are the majority holders of cattle and hogs in Ukraine today. The private sector has become vitally important in securing livestock production especially when public livestock production has been continuously declining. Most likely feed corn would be replaced in rations by low quality wheat. It appears that there still exist sufficient quantities of low quality wheat from the 1997 harvest still available for utilization through livestock; accordingly, the estimate of wheat for feeding was increased by 500,000 tons, with a similar reduction in expected wheat exports. PROSPECTS FOR 1999 Dry weather conditions through the end of September, when normally a large share of Ukrainian winter wheat, barley and rye should be planted, have definitely hindered planting, germination and early plant growth in all of the major east and southeast growing areas. This includes the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Crimea. Conditions are far better in the Central and Western regions of Ukraine. Rain and significantly cooler weather began October 1 but thus far no killing frost. UNCLASSIFIED Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA GAIN Report #UP8011 Page 2 of 3 PSD Table Country: Ukraine Commodity: Wheat 1996 1997 1998 Old New Old New Old New Market Year Begin 07/1997 07/1997 07/1997 Area Harvested 5892 5892 6500 6508 5900 5700 Beginning Stocks 5141 5141 1941 1847 3016 1910 Production 13550 13550 18400 18404 16500 15000 TOTAL Mkt. Yr. Imports 200 200 50 70 50 50 Jul-Jun Imports 200 200 50 70 50 50 Jul-Jun Import U.S. 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTAL SUPPLY 18891 18891 20391 20321 19566 16960 TOTAL Mkt. Yr. Exports 500 594 400 1111 400 1000 Jul-Jun Exports 500 594 400 1111 400 1000 Feed Dom. Consumption 5200 5200 5700 5700 5700 4500 TOTAL Dom. Consumption 16450 16450 16975 17300 17000 15500 Ending Stocks 1941 1847 3016 1910 2166 460 TOTAL DISTRIBUTION 18891 18891 20391 20321 19566 16960 PSD Table Country: Ukraine Commodity: Corn 1996 1997 1998 Old New Old New Old New Market Year Begin 10/1996 10/1996 10/1996 Area Harvested 671 670 1650 1350 1400 900 Beginning Stocks 825 200 165 85 540 146 Production 1840 1840 5300 5340 4000 2000 TOTAL Mkt. Yr. Imports16005010 Oct-Sep Imports 1000010 Oct-Sep Import U.S. 00000 0 TOTAL SUPPLY 2666 2100 5465 5430 4540 2156 TOTAL Mkt. Yr. Exports 0 45 200 359 200 20 Oct-Sep Exports 0 0 200 395 200 20 Feed Dom. Consumption 1400 1380 1500 1450 1400 1350 UNCLASSIFIED Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA GAIN Report #UP8011 Page 3 of 3 TOTAL Dom. Consumption 2501 1970 4725 4925 4000 2100 Ending Stocks 165 85 540 146 340 36 TOTAL DISTRIBUTION 2666 2100 5465 5430 4540 2156 UNCLASSIFIED Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA.
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