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Pupil Place Planning in Durham Schools and Academies 2020

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Pupil Place Planning in Durham Schools and Academies 2020 Pupil Place Planning In Durham Schools and Academies 2020 November 2020 Contents Page Contents 1 Section 1 Introduction 2 Section 2 The National Picture (England) July 2018 3 Section 3 The Position in County Durham 4 . Projected Primary and Secondary Pupil Numbers 4 . Promoting Choice and Diversity 5 - 6 Section 4 Forecasting Primary and Secondary Pupil Numbers 7 - 9 Section 5 Strategy for School Organisation 10 . Providing Additional School Places 11 Section 6 Post-16, SEN and Early Years Education 12 . Post-16 Pupil Place Planning 12 - 13 . SEN Provision 13 . Early Years Provision 13 Annex 1 Planning Area Details 14 - 15 Annex 2 Primary Schools - Projected Rolls 16 - 37 Annex 3 Secondary Schools - Projected Rolls 38 - 42 Annex 4 Special School Provision 43 Annex 5 Early Years Providers 44 - 52 1 SECTION 1 Introduction This document aims to provide an overview of current and future pupil numbers which supports planning the future pattern and provision of school places across the County. Pupil Place Planning (PPP) is a critical aspect of the Local Authority's statutory duty to assess the local need for school places to ensure that every child can be provided with a place in a state-funded school in County Durham. Local Authorities (LAs) need to show that they have robust procedures and systems for forecasting pupil numbers and taking account of changes in local circumstances to ensure there will be the right number of schools in the right places for the number of pupils expected in the future. Schools submit data on pupil rolls to the Local Authority (LA) in October, January and May each year through the Termly School Census. A review of the projected rolls (for approximately 15 years hence) is carried out annually. An updated PPP document is made available to schools and key stakeholders each year once this review is complete. Schools are encouraged to play an active role in the pupil place planning process and to identify at an early stage any concerns with projections that may impact on future school planning. Durham County Council has a responsibility for promoting diversity of education provision to achieve high educational standards. This document sets out the council’s approach to Pupil Place Planning and outlines our approach to the organisation of schools to maintain and improve education provision across the county. Information on current and projected school rolls, school capacity, birth rates and planned housing developments is provided throughout the document. To enable the Local Authority to gain a clearer understanding of where there is current and anticipated pressure on primary school places in County Durham, primary schools have been grouped into specific local school place planning areas. These planning areas are listed in Annex 1 (pages 14-15). This allows for a more detailed analysis of need and helps to make decisions about the allocation of funding to provide additional places to meet demand. Tables of primary school projected rolls are detailed in Annex 2 (pages 16-39) and are presented using the planning area groupings highlighted in Annex 1. Secondary schools (including Academies) are also grouped into specific local school place planning areas. Tables of secondary school projected rolls are highlighted in Annex 3 (pages 40-44). 2 SECTION 2 The National Picture (England) 2019 Nationally the pattern of demand for pupil places in England is changing. In July 2020 the Department for Education (DfE) released its most recent set of national pupil projections. The key points are: . The nursery and primary school population has been rising since 2009 but has now plateaued as the drop in births in 2013 feeds into the main school population and is projected to to drop for the whole projection period to 2030. The drop is steeper than previously projected due to lower births recorded since the end of 2016. The secondary school population began rising in 2016 and is projected to continue increasing until 2024 befor gradually dropping until the end of the projection period. The peak and then fall is primarily due to the lower births since 2013 and beyond, which start to reach secondary school age in around 2025. The full-time equivalent population of under 5 year olds in state-funded education was 852,000 in 2020. This is slightly higher than the year before but is now projected to drop rapidly until 2024 (reaching 786,000) before stabilising. This is due to the reduction in births from late 2016 and subsequent reductions in ONS’s projected birth numbers. The overall population in state-funded nursery and primary schools was 4,647,000 in 2020 and is projected to be 359,000 lower in 2026 at ,342,000.The population in state-funded nursery and primary schools decreased more slowly than projected between 2019 and 2020 (by 0.1% compared with 0.3% in the previous projections).This population is expected to decrease at a faster rate for the remainder of the projection period, peaking at 1.7% in 2024 and remaining at over 1% throughout.These decreases are primarily due to the lower birth projections in ONS’s new population projections. The overall population in secondary schools was 3,003,000 in 2020, a 2.7% increase in the population in 2019 (compared to a forecast 3.1% increase in the previous projections). The resulting lower levels of participation means that the secondary school population is now projected to peak a year earlier and at a lower level than previously projected, reaching 3,227,000 in 2024 (224,000 higher than in 2020). At this point the reduction in births start to reach secondary age and by 2030 the forecast is expected to be down to only 70,000 higher than in 2020 3 SECTION 3 The Position in County Durham County Durham has had the fifth largest population increase out of the 12 north east authorities since 2001. Between 2001 and 2016 the population increased by 28,400 to 522,100 which is an increase of 5.8%. In the north east the average increase was 3.8%. These latest figures show that County Durham’s population has grown each year for each of the last 14 years. Unlike the national trend the county has seen a gradual fall in the number of its children and young people since 2001. The 2016 figure was 5.8% lower than in 2001 compared to a 5.1% increase nationally. This represents a fall of 6,200 children and young people in the county over this period. The fall in the 10-14 year old age group is due to low birth rates between 2000-2003. However increases in births since 2008 have increased the number of children aged under 10. The graphs below and overleaf illustrate the expected numbers of primary and secondary pupils in the future. Primary school pupil numbers are projected to reduce slightly from 2020/21 to 2027/28 whereupon they will increase so that by 2034/35 they are close to the 2021/22 level. 4 Secondary school pupil numbers (age 11-16) are projected to increase each year from 2020/21 – 2025/26 so that by 2025/26 there are approximately 2,800 more secondary pupils aged 11-16 than there are in 2020/21. From 2026/27 numbers are expected to reduce slightly year on year to 2032/33. Thereafter they are expected to increase. In 2025/26 there are expected to be approximately 3,000 more secondary age pupils aged 11-16 than there are in 2020/21. Note: the pupil projections presented in the graphs on pages 4 - 5 take account of expected birth rates over time. They do not include additional pupils that may move into local areas as a result of possible ‘growth’ in some parts of the county. Only when housing planning applications are approved is it possible to include accurate figures about additional pupils from these new housing developments. At 1 September 2020 the capacity of the 212 primary/infant/junior schools was 46,118 and 39,910 children were on roll. This means there was an overall surplus of 6,208 places (13.5%). The 11-16 capacity of the secondary schools was 32,001 and there were 26,480 pupils on roll. This gives an overall surplus of 5,521 (17.3%). Promoting Choice and Diversity The 2006 Education and Inspections Act requires Local Authorities to exercise their functions with a view to securing diversity in the provision of schools and increasing opportunities for parental choice. Promoting and achieving choice and diversity in our school system is a way of creating a climate which fosters high and improving standards of achievement. There is diverse provision in Durham including Federations and Foundation (Trust) 5 Schools, several Academies and a University Technical College, as well as Voluntary Aided/Controlled Roman Catholic and Church of England Schools and Community Schools. on School School Type Total Trust Aided 19 - Academy Voluntary Voluntary Controlled Foundati Community 14 Nursery 11 - - - - - 11 Infant 7 - - - 1 - 8 Junior 4 - 2 - 2 - 8 Primary 115 14 37 - 30 - 196 Secondary (11-16) 5 - - 1 9 - 15 Secondary (11-18) 1 - - - 14 - 15 The University Technical College, - - - - - 1 1 South Durham (14-19) Sixth Form Centre (16-19) 1 - - - - - 1 Special 9 - - - 1 - 10 Total 153 14 39 1 57 1 265 6 SECTION 4 Forecasting Primary and Secondary Pupil Numbers Pupil projections are used for a number of purposes. These include: . Pupil place planning. To help complete the annual Department for Education (DFE) school capacity return. To help calculate Section 106 contributions from new housing developments for additional school places.
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