92/80(犎  ,668(犊 '()(16( 6(&85,7< %5,() 

'HFHPEHU熅熃熄熌

)RUHLJQ,QWHUIHUHQFH$&DVH6WXG\熄 )URP$XVWUDOLD Natasha Kassam

,QWKH/LJKWRID&KLQD&ORXGLQJ(UD熄熊 $*ODQFHDW$XVWUDOLD熎V6WUDWHJLF /DQGVFDSHVLQWKH6RXWK3DFLILF Oddis Tsai

&XUUHQW3UREOHPVRI*HUPDQ\熎V$UPHG 熅熈 )RUFHV ,QVWLWXWHIRU1DWLRQDO'HIHQVHDQG Wilfried von Bredow   6HFXULW\5HVHDUFK Institute for National Defense and &KLQD熎V1H[W*HQHUDWLRQ0LVVLOH 熆熈 Security Research 7KH')熄熊LQ3DFLILF&RQIOLFWDQG*UHDW 3RZHU&RPSHWLWLRQ Cameron Freeman

,661

1109經0141封面.indd09經0141封面.indd 1 22020/2/11020/2/11 下午下午 03:07:0603:07:06 ,1'65 Š‡ •–‹–—–‡ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‡ˆ‡•‡ƒ†‡ —”‹–›‡•‡ƒ” Šȋ Ȍ‹•†‡†‹ ƒ–‡†–‘ ˆ—‡Ž‹‰‘™Ž‡†‰‡Ǧ„ƒ•‡†’‘Ž‹ ›ƒƒŽ›•‡•ƒ†•–”ƒ–‡‰‹ ƒ••‡••‡–•‘ƒ‹™ƒǯ• •‡ —”‹–›Ǥ —” ‹••‹‘ ‹• –‘ •ƒˆ‡‰—ƒ”† ƒ‹™ƒǯ• †‡‘ ”ƒ › ƒ† ’”‘•’‡”‹–› „› •–”‡‰–Š‡‹‰ —–—ƒŽ —†‡”•–ƒ†‹‰ ƒ† ƒ†˜ƒ ‹‰ ‘‘ ‹–‡”‡•–• ‹ –Š‡ †‡ˆ‡•‡ƒ†•‡ —”‹–› ‘—‹–›„‘–Š‰Ž‘„ƒŽŽ›ƒ†ƒ–Š‘‡Ǥ ™ƒ•ˆ‘”ƒŽŽ› ‹ƒ—‰—”ƒ–‡†‘ƒ›ͳǡʹͲͳͺǡƒ†‹•Š‡ƒ†“—ƒ”–‡”‡†‹ƒ‹’‡‹ǡƒ‹™ƒǤ‡ƒ”‡ƒ ‹†‡’‡†‡–ǡ‘’ƒ”–‹•ƒǡ‘’”‘ˆ‹–‘”‰ƒ‹œƒ–‹‘Ǥ  ‘„”‹‰–‘‰‡–Š‡”‰”‡ƒ–‹†•‹’‘Ž‹ ›ƒ‹‰ǡ‹†—•–”›ƒ†”‡•‡ƒ” Šǡ™‡ ‘˜‡‡ ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽˆ‘”—•ǡ‡–™‘” ‹˜‹Ž•‘ ‹‡–‹‡•ǡ‡‰ƒ‰‡‹”ƒ ™‘†‹ƒŽ‘‰—‡ƒ† ‘†— –™ƒ”‰ƒ‡•‹—Žƒ–‹‘•Ǥ ǯ•†›ƒ‹ ”‡•‡ƒ” Šƒ‰‡†ƒƒ†ƒ –‹˜‹–‹‡•ƒ”‡ —•‡†–‘†‡˜‡Ž‘’’”ƒ‰ƒ–‹ ’‘Ž‹ ›”‡ ‘‡†ƒ–‹‘•ˆ‘”–Š‡ƒ‹™ƒ‰‘˜‡”‡–Ǥ  /($'(56+,3 Š‘‘—Ǧ‡Š —‘ŠȋŠƒ‹”ƒȌŠ‡‰Ǧ‹‹ȋ”‡•‹†‡–Ȍ‹Ǧ ——ȋ –‹‰‹ ‡ ”‡•‹†‡–Ȍ '()(16(6(&85,7<%5,() Defense Security Brief ȋȌ ‹• ƒ ‰Ž‹•ŠǦŽƒ‰—ƒ‰‡ ’—„Ž‹ ƒ–‹‘ ƒ‹‡† ƒ– •–”‡‰–Š‡‹‰”‡•‡ƒ” Š‡š Šƒ‰‡•™‹–Š•‡ —”‹–›Ǧ”‡Žƒ–‡†‡š’‡”–•„‘–Š†‘‡•–‹ ƒŽŽ› ƒ†ƒ„”‘ƒ†Ǥ•–ƒ„Ž‹•Š‡†‹ʹͲͳͳǡ™ƒ•‘”‹‰‹ƒŽŽ›ˆ‘—†‡†ƒ† ‘’‹Ž‡†„›–Š‡ ˆˆ‹ ‡ ‘ˆ ‡ˆ‡•‡ –—†‹‡•ǡ ‹‹•–”› ‘ˆ ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ‡ˆ‡•‡Ǥ  ‘–‹—‡† –Š‡ ’—„Ž‹ ƒ–‹‘‹ʹͲͳͺǤ (',7256 ƒ—Ž Ǧ ƒ‘ —ƒ‰ ȋ†‹–‘” ‹ Š‹‡ˆȌ   ‡Ǧ‹‰ ƒ‰ ȋ••‘ ‹ƒ–‡ †‹–‘”Ȍ  ƒ–Š‡”‹‡ƒ‹Ǧ‹‰‹ Š—‰Ǧ‡‹— Š‹ŠǦ‹‘Š‡—  2)),&(   •–‹–—–‡ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‡ˆ‡•‡ƒ†‡ —”‹–›‡•‡ƒ” Š

‘Ǥͳ͹ʹǡ‘Ǧ‹‘ƒ†ǡŠ‘‰œŠ‡‰‹•–Ǥǡƒ‹’‡‹‹–›ǡƒ‹™ƒȋǤǤǤȌ ‡Žǣͺͺ͸ǦʹǦʹ͵͵ͳǦʹ͵͸Ͳ ƒšǣͺͺ͸ǦʹǦʹ͵͵ͳǦʹ͵͸ͳ

”‹–‡†‹ƒ‹™ƒ 

ʹʹʹͷ͵͸ͲǦʹ ‘’›”‹‰Š–̺ʹͲͳͻŠ‡ •–‹–—–‡ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‡ˆ‡•‡ƒ†‡ —”‹–›‡•‡ƒ” Š 

‘˜‡”Š‘–‘ǣ‘›ƒŽ—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒƒ˜›ǡ‘›ƒŽƒƒ†‹ƒƒ˜›ǡ ƒ’ƒƒ”‹–‹‡‡ŽˆǦ ‡ˆ‡•‡ ‘” ‡ǡǤǤƒ˜›ƒ†ǤǤ‘ƒ•– —ƒ”†•–‡ƒ–‘‰‡–Š‡”ˆ”‘ǤǤƒ ‹ˆ‹ ˆŽ‡‡–

)RUHLJQ,QWHUIHUHQFH$&DVH6WXG\ IURP$XVWUDOLD

%\1DWDVKD.DVVDP

̶‡””‘”‹•Šƒ•‡˜‡”„‡‡ƒ‡š‹•–‡–‹ƒŽ–Š”‡ƒ––‘‡•–ƒ„Ž‹•Š‡†•–ƒ–‡•ǡ̶ •ƒ‹† — ƒ ‡™‹•ǡ –Š‡ Š‡ƒ† ‘ˆ —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ ‡ —”‹–› –‡ŽŽ‹‰‡ ‡ ”‰ƒ‹•ƒ–‹‘ȋ Ȍƒ––Š‡‘™› •–‹–—–‡‘‡’–‡„‡”ͷǡʹͲͳͻ‹ƒ”ƒ”‡ ’—„Ž‹ ƒ††”‡••ˆ‘”—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒǯ••’›ƒ•–‡”Ǥ 

̶Š‡ ‘—–‡”Ǧ‡•’‹‘ƒ‰‡ ƒ† ˆ‘”‡‹‰ ‹–‡”ˆ‡”‡ ‡ ‹••—‡ǡ Š‘™‡˜‡”ǡ‹• •‘‡–Š‹‰™Š‹ Š‹•—Ž–‹ƒ–‡Ž›ƒ‡š‹•–‡–‹ƒŽ–Š”‡ƒ––‘–Š‡•–ƒ–‡ǡ‘”‹– ƒ „‡ƒ‡š‹•–‡–‹ƒŽ–Š”‡ƒ––‘–Š‡•–ƒ–‡Ǥ –Šƒ•–Š‡ ƒ’ƒ ‹–›–‘†‘–Šƒ–Ǥ̶ͳ

Š‹• —’”‡ ‡†‡–‡† •–ƒ–‡‡– ˆ”‘ ‘‡ ‘ˆ —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒǯ• Ž‡ƒ†‹‰ ’—„Ž‹  •‡”˜ƒ–• ƒ”• –Š‡ ‡Ž‡˜ƒ–‹‘ ‘ˆ ˆ‘”‡‹‰ ‹–‡”ˆ‡”‡ ‡ –‘ ‡™ Ž‡˜‡Ž• ‘ˆ ’—„Ž‹  †‹• ‘—”•‡Ǥ Š‡ †‡„ƒ–‡ Šƒ• „‡‡ —”›ǣ ƒŽ–Š‘—‰Š —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ Ž‡‰‹•Žƒ–‹‘ Šƒ• „‡‡ ƒ”‡ˆ—Ž –‘ ‘– ’‘‹– ˆ‹‰‡”• ƒ– ‘‡ ‘—–”› ‹ ’ƒ”–‹ —Žƒ”ǡ –Š‡ ƒŒ‘”‹–› ‘ˆ ‹–‡”ˆ‡”‡ ‡ ‘ ‡”•ǡ ƒ† •–ƒ–‡‡–• „› —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ ’‘Ž‹–‹ ƒŽ Ž‡ƒ†‡”•ǡ Šƒ˜‡ „‡‡ ‘‡ –‡† –‘ ‡‹Œ‹‰Ǥ Š‡ Š‡‹‰Š–‡‡†–‡•‹‘•ƒ”‘—†–Š‡Š‹ƒ†‡„ƒ–‡‹—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒŠƒ•ƒŽ•‘Ž‡†–‘ǡ —‹–‡–‹‘ƒŽ ‘” ‘–Š‡”™‹•‡ǡ „Ž—””‹‰ „‡–™‡‡ Ž‡‰‹–‹ƒ–‡ ‡ƒ• ‘ˆ ‹ˆŽ—‡ ‡ ƒ† ˆ‘”‡‹‰ ‹–‡”ˆ‡”‡ ‡Ǥ ‹ƒŽŽ›ǡ –Š‡ Žƒ‰—ƒ‰‡ —•‡† „› ‘‡–ƒ–‘”•ƒ”‘—†Š‹‡•‡‘—‹•–ƒ”–›‹–‡”ˆ‡”‡ ‡Šƒ•”‹•‡† —ˆƒ‹”Ž› –ƒ”‹•Š‹‰ –Š‡ ͳǤʹ ‹ŽŽ‹‘ —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ• –Šƒ– „‘ƒ•– Š‹‡•‡ Š‡”‹–ƒ‰‡Ǥ 

 犇 'XQFDQ/HZLV犒$Q$GGUHVV\$6,2'LUHFWRU*HQHUDO'XQFDQ/HZLV犓 6HSWHPEHU犋犈犆犇犏/RZ\,QVWLWXWHKWWSVVRXQGFORXGFRPORZ\LQVWLWXWHDQ DGGUHVVE\DVLRGLUHFWRUJHQHUDOGXQFDQOHZLV

1

 Š‹• ’ƒ’‡” •‡‡• –‘ ‘—–Ž‹‡ –Š‡ •Š‹ˆ– ‹ †‹• —••‹‘ ƒ”‘—† ˆ‘”‡‹‰ ‹–‡”ˆ‡”‡ ‡ƒ†•Šƒ”’’‘™‡”‹—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒǡ†‹• —••—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒǯ•”‡•’‘•‡ –‘ ‹ ”‡ƒ•‹‰ ‘ ‡” ƒ„‘—– ˆ‘”‡‹‰ ‹–‡”ˆ‡”‡ ‡ ‹ –Š‡ ‘–‡š–‘ˆ ‘ˆ— ‹—• •–‹–—–‡• ‹ —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒǡ ƒ† ˆ‹ƒŽŽ›ǡ ƒƒŽ›•‡ –Š‡ ‘’‡”ƒ–‹‘ ‘ˆ —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒǯ• ‘”‡‹‰ ˆŽ—‡ ‡”ƒ•’ƒ”‡ › Š‡‡‹–Š‡›‡ƒ”•‹ ‡‹– ™ƒ•‹–”‘†— ‡†‘‡ ‡„‡”ͳͲǡʹͲͳͺǤ 

Influence versus Interference

Š‡ ‡š’”‡••‹‘ Dz•Šƒ”’ ’‘™‡”dz Šƒ• ‘Ž› „‡‡ —•‡† •‹ ‡ ʹͲͳ͹ǡ „—– ”‡ˆŽ‡ –• ƒ Ž‘‰•–ƒ†‹‰ ’”ƒ –‹ ‡Ǥ Šƒ”’ ’‘™‡” ”‡ˆ‡”• –‘ ƒ—–Š‘”‹–ƒ”‹ƒ ”‡‰‹‡•ǡˆ‘”‡šƒ’Ž‡Š‹ƒƒ†—••‹ƒǡ‹˜‡•–‹‰‹•‹‰‹ˆ‹ ƒ–”‡•‘—” ‡• ‹‡†‹ƒǡƒ ƒ†‡‹ ǡ —Ž–—”ƒŽǡƒ†–Š‹–ƒ‹‹–‹ƒ–‹˜‡•†‡•‹‰‡†–‘•Šƒ’‡ ’—„Ž‹ ‘’‹‹‘ƒ†’‡” ‡’–‹‘•ƒ”‘—†–Š‡™‘”Ž†Ǥʹ

‹„‡”ƒŽ†‡‘ ”ƒ ‹‡•Šƒ˜‡‘ˆ ‘—”•‡‹˜‡•–‡†”‡•‘—” ‡•‹–Š‡•ƒ‡™ƒ›ǣ –Š‡•‡‡ˆˆ‘”–•Šƒ˜‡„‡‡–”ƒ†‹–‹‘ƒŽŽ›–Š‘—‰Š–‘ˆ–Š”‘—‰Š–Š‡Ž‡•‘ˆDz•‘ˆ– ’‘™‡”Ǥdz ”‡˜‹‘—•Ž›ǡ •‘ˆ– ’‘™‡” ”‡ˆ‡””‡† –‘ ƒŽŽ ˆ‘”• ‘ˆ ‹ˆŽ—‡ ‡ –Šƒ– ™‡”‡‘–DzŠƒ”†ǡdz‹Ǥ‡Ǥ‹Ž‹–ƒ”›ˆ‘” ‡‘”‡ ‘‘‹ ‹‰Š–Ǥ͵ —––Š‡•‡ˆ‘”• ‘ˆ ƒ—–Š‘”‹–ƒ”‹ƒ ‹ˆŽ—‡ ‡ ‘—Ž† ‘ Ž‘‰‡” „‡ ‘•‹†‡”‡† ƒ• Dz•‘ˆ–ǡdz ’ƒ”–‹ —Žƒ”Ž› ‹ –Š‡ ‘–‡š– ‘ˆ ›‘—‰‡” †‡‘ ”ƒ ‹‡•Ǥ Š‡ –‡” Dz•Šƒ”’ ’‘™‡”dz Šƒ• –‡†‡† –‘ ”‡ˆ‡” –‘ –Š‡•‡ ‡ˆˆ‘”–• –‘ ’‹‡” ‡ ‘” ‹ˆ‹Ž–”ƒ–‡ –Š‡ ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ ƒ† ’‘Ž‹–‹ ƒŽ ‡˜‹”‘‡–• ‹ –Š‡ –ƒ”‰‡–‡† ‘—–”‹‡•Ǥ Š‡”‡ƒ••‘ˆ–’‘™‡”–‡†•–‘„‡ˆ‘ —•‡†‘™‹‹‰DzŠ‡ƒ”–•ƒ†‹†•ǡdz  犈 1DWLRQDO(QGRZPHQWIRU'HPRFUDF\犒6KDUS3RZHU5LVLQJ$XWKRULWDULDQ ,QIOXHQFH犓'HFHPEHU犋犈犆犇犍KWWSVZZZQHGRUJVKDUSSRZHUULVLQJ DXWKRULWDULDQLQIOXHQFHIRUXPUHSRUW 犉 +LGHVKL7RNXFKL犒&RXQWHULQJ)RUHLJQ,QIOXHQFHDQG,QWHUIHUHQFHLQ2SHQ 6RFLHWLHVĂ$-DSDQHVH3HUVSHFWLYHRQ$XWKRULWDULDQ,QILOWUDWLRQ犓-DSDQ,QVWLWXWH RI,QWHUQDWLRQDO$IIDLUV)HEUXDU\犈犋犈犆犇犏

2

 •Šƒ”’ ’‘™‡” •‡‡• –‘ ‹ˆŽ—‡ ‡ †‡‘ ”ƒ ‹‡• „› Dzƒ‹’—Žƒ–‹‰ ‘” †‹•–‘”–‹‰–Š‡‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘–Šƒ–”‡ƒ Š‡•–ƒ”‰‡–ƒ—†‹‡ ‡•ǤdzͶ

—– –Š‹• †‹•–‹ –‹‘ ƒ „‡ ’”‘„Ž‡ƒ–‹  ™Š‡ •‡‡‹‰ –‘ †‹•–‹‰—‹•Š „‡–™‡‡Ž‡‰‹–‹ƒ–‡‡š’”‡••‹‘•‘ˆ’—„Ž‹ †‹’Ž‘ƒ ›ƒ†•‘ˆ–’‘™‡”ǡƒ• ‘’’‘•‡†–‘‹ŽŽ‡‰‹–‹ƒ–‡‡ˆˆ‘”–•–‘‹–‡”ˆ‡”‡‘”‹ˆ‹Ž–”ƒ–‡ǤŠ‡ʹͲͳ͹ ‘”‡‹‰ ‘Ž‹ ›Š‹–‡ƒ’‡”ˆ”‘–Š‡—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ‰‘˜‡”‡–‘–‡†‹–• ‘ ‡” ƒ„‘—–ǣ Influence versus Interference growing attempts by foreign governments or their proxies to exert inappropriate influence on and to undermine Australia’ sovereign institutions and decision-making. Such attempts at foreign interference are part of a wider global trend that has affected other democracies. Foreign interference aims to shape actions of decision-makers and public opinion to achieve an outcome favourable to foreign interestsǤͷ

Šƒ–‹•’ƒ”–‹ —Žƒ”Ž›‹’‘”–ƒ–‹–Š‡†‡ˆ‹‹–‹‘‘ˆˆ‡”‡†„›–Š‡ ‘”‡‹‰ ‘Ž‹ ›Š‹–‡’ƒ’‡”‹•–Šƒ––Š‡ƒ—–Š‘”•‘–‡ƒŽŽ•–ƒ–‡••‡‡–‘ƒ†˜ƒ ‡ –Š‡‹” ‹–‡”‡•–• –Š”‘—‰Š ’‡”•—ƒ•‹‘ǡ ƒ• ƒ ‡–”ƒŽ ƒ† Ž‡‰‹–‹ƒ–‡–ƒ•‘ˆ †‹’Ž‘ƒ ›Ǥ —– ˆ‘”‡‹‰ ‹–‡”ˆ‡”‡ ‡ ‹• ’”‘„Ž‡ƒ–‹  „‡ ƒ—•‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡ Žƒ†‡•–‹‡‘”†‡ ‡’–‹˜‡ƒ–—”‡‘ˆ–Š‡‹ˆŽ—‡ ‡ǡ™Š‹ Šƒˆˆ‡ –•’‘Ž‹–‹ ƒŽǡ ‰‘˜‡”‡–ƒŽ‘”‡˜‡ ‘‡” ‹ƒŽ’”‘ ‡••‡•–‘ ƒ—•‡Šƒ”–‘—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ ‹–‡”‡•–•ǤŠ‹•†‡ˆ‹‹–‹‘’”‘˜‹†‡•ƒ‰—‹†‹‰ˆ”ƒ‡™‘”–‘‡•—”‡–Šƒ– ™‡ †‘ ‘– —‡ ‡••ƒ”‹Ž› †‡‘‹•‡ ‘” †ƒƒ‰‡ Ž‡‰‹–‹ƒ–‡ ƒ––‡’–• –‘ ‹ˆŽ—‡ ‡‘”•Šƒ’‡—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ‰‘˜‡”‡–’‘Ž‹ ›Ǥ 



 犊 1DWLRQDO(QGRZPHQWIRU'HPRFUDF\RSFLW 犋 'HSDUWPHQWRI)RUHLJQ$IIDLUVDQG7UDGH犈犆犇犍)RUHLJQ3ROLF\:KLWH3DSHU 1RYHPEHU犈犍犈犆犇犍KWWSVZZZISZKLWHSDSHUJRYDX

3

 The Australian Case Study

Š‡Žƒ•––™‘›‡ƒ”•Šƒ˜‡•‡‡—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒǯ•”‡Žƒ–‹‘•Š‹’™‹–ŠŠ‹ƒ•Šƒ‡ „› ƒŽŽ‡‰ƒ–‹‘• –Šƒ– –Š‡ Š‹‡•‡ ’ƒ”–›Ǧ•–ƒ–‡ ‹• ™‘”‹‰ –‘ ‘˜‡”–Ž› ƒ‹’—Žƒ–‡–Š‡—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ’‘Ž‹–‹ ƒŽ•›•–‡ǤŠ‡ Žƒ‹••–ƒ”–‡†™‹–Š–Š‡ ‹†‡ƒ –Šƒ– ’‘Ž‹–‹ ƒŽ †‘‘”• Ž‹‡† –‘ ‡‹Œ‹‰ ™‡”‡ „—›‹‰ ƒ ‡••ƒ† ‹ˆŽ—‡ ‡ǡƒ†‡• ƒŽƒ–‡†–‘—‹˜‡”•‹–‹‡•„‡‹‰ ‘•‹†‡”‡†ƒ•’”‘’ƒ‰ƒ†ƒ ˜‡Š‹ Ž‡• ˆ‘” –Š‡ ‘—‹•– ƒ”–›Ǥ Š‡”‡ Šƒ˜‡ „‡‡ ”‡˜‡Žƒ–‹‘• –Šƒ– —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ ˆ—†‡† • ‹‡–‹ˆ‹  ”‡•‡ƒ” Š Šƒ• †‹”‡ –Ž› •—’’‘”–‡† –Š‡ ƒ’ƒ„‹Ž‹–‹‡•‘ˆ–‘–Š‡‡‘’Ž‡ǯ•‹„‡”ƒ–‹‘”›Ǥ 

Š‡ •–‘”› •–ƒ”–‡†™‹–Š ƒ ƒ•–›ƒ”‹ǡ ƒ ƒ„‘” ƒ”–› •‡ƒ–‘”™Š‘ ™ƒ• ˆ‘—† –‘ Šƒ˜‡ ”‡ ‡‹˜‡† ƒ •ƒŽŽ ƒ‘—– ‘ˆ ‘‡› ˆ”‘ ƒ Š‹‡•‡ „—•‹‡••ƒǤ ‡Žƒ–‡””‡’‡ƒ–‡†–Š‡Š‹‡•‡‘—‹•–ƒ”–›’‘•‹–‹‘ ‘–Š‡‘—–ŠŠ‹ƒ‡ƒǡ ‘–”ƒ”›–‘Š‹•‘™’ƒ”–›ǯ•’‘Ž‹ ›’Žƒ–ˆ‘”ǡƒ† ƒŽŽ‡‰‡†Ž›™ƒ”‡†–Š‡•ƒ‡„—•‹‡••ƒ–Šƒ–Š‹• ƒŽŽ•ƒ›Šƒ˜‡„‡‡ ‘‹–‘”‡† „› •‡ —”‹–› •‡”˜‹ ‡•Ǥ Š‹• •–‘”› ‡†‡† ™‹–Š –Š‡ ‡ƒ–‘”ǯ• ”‡•‹‰ƒ–‹‘Ǥ͸

‘”‡ ”‡ ‡–Ž›ǡ ‹ Žƒ–‡ ‘˜‡„‡” ʹͲͳͻǡ ‡™• ”‡’‘”–• •—‰‰‡•–‡† –Šƒ– Š‹‡•‡ ‹–‡ŽŽ‹‰‡ ‡ ‘’‡”ƒ–‹˜‡• ‘ˆˆ‡”‡†  ͳ ‹ŽŽ‹‘ –‘ ƒ Š‹‡•‡ —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ ƒ”†‡ƒŽ‡”‹‡Ž„‘—”‡–‘”—ˆ‘”ˆ‡†‡”ƒŽ’ƒ”Ž‹ƒ‡–ƒ•–Š‡ ‹„‡”ƒŽ ƒ†‹†ƒ–‡ ˆ‘” Š‹•Š‘ŽǤ Š‹Ž‡ –Š‡”‡ ƒ”‡ •‡”‹‘—• “—‡•–‹‘• ‘ˆ ’Žƒ—•‹„‹Ž‹–› ‹ –Š‹• ƒ•‡ǡ ’ƒ”–‹ —Žƒ”Ž› ƒ• –Š‡ ’”ƒ –‹ ‡ ‘ˆ ’”‡Ǧ•‡Ž‡ –‹‰  犌 .DWKDULQH0XUSK\犒6DP'DVW\DULVHQDWRUUHFRUGHGFRQWUDGLFWLQJ/DERURQ 6RXWK&KLQD6HD犓*XDUGLDQ犈犏1RYHPEHU犈犆犇犍 KWWSVZZZWKHJXDUGLDQFRPDXVWUDOLDQHZV犈犆犇犍QRY犈犏VDPGDVW\DUL VHQDWRUUHFRUGHGFRQWUDGLFWLQJODERURQVRXWKFKLQDVHD 

4

 The Australian Case Study ƒ†‹†ƒ–‡• ‹ —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ ƒ‡• †‹”‡ –Ž› ’Žƒ ‹‰ •‘‡„‘†› ‹ –Š‡ ’ƒ”Ž‹ƒ‡–‡ƒ”Ž›‹’‘••‹„Ž‡Ǥ 

&KLQD V 3UHVLGHQW ;L -LQSLQJ DGGUHVVLQJ WKH $XVWUDOLDQ 3DUOLDPHQW GXULQJ KLV YLVLW WR &DQEHUUDRQ1RY0U;LLVYLVLWHG&DQEHUUDDIWHUDWWHQGLQJWKH*6XPPLWLQ %ULVEDQHRYHUWKHZHHNHQG 6RXUFH6WUDLW7LPHV 

Š‡Žƒ•––™‘›‡ƒ”•Šƒ˜‡•‡‡ƒ›‘–Š‡”ƒŽŽ‡‰ƒ–‹‘•‘ˆ–Š‹•ƒ–—”‡ǤŠ‹• ’ƒ’‡” ™‹ŽŽ ‘– ‘•‹†‡” –Š‡ ƒ› ›„‡”ƒ––ƒ • –Šƒ– —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ Šƒ• ‡š’‡”‹‡ ‡††—”‹‰–Š‹•’‡”‹‘†ǡƒ›‘ˆ™Š‹ ŠŠƒ˜‡„‡‡ƒ––”‹„—–‡†‹ –Š‡ ‡†‹ƒ –‘ Š‹ƒǤ Š‹• ‹• „‡ ƒ—•‡ ›„‡”ƒ––ƒ • „‡–™‡‡ ‘—–”‹‡• ‘—Ž† ’‘–‡–‹ƒŽŽ› „‡ ‘•‹†‡”‡† –‘ „‡ ƒ –”ƒ†‹–‹‘ƒŽ ˆ‘” ‘ˆ ‡•’‹‘ƒ‰‡ǡ ™Š‡”‡ƒ• –Š‹• ’ƒ’‡” ‹• ‘•‹†‡”‹‰ ‡™ ƒ† ”‡˜‹•‡† ˆ‘”• ‘ˆ ˆ‘”‡‹‰ ‹–‡”ˆ‡”‡ ‡Ǥ 

—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒŠƒ•–ƒ‡ƒ”ƒ‰‡‘ˆ‡ƒ•—”‡•‹”‡•’‘•‡–‘–Š‹•’‡” ‡‹˜‡† –Š”‡ƒ–ǡ •‘‡ ‘ˆ ™Š‹ Š ™‡”‡ Ž‘‰ ‘˜‡”†—‡ǡ •— Š ƒ• „ƒ‹‰ ’‘Ž‹–‹ ƒŽ †‘ƒ–‹‘• ˆ”‘ ˆ‘”‡‹‰ ‹–‹œ‡•Ǥ Š‡ —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ ‰‘˜‡”‡– Šƒ•

5

 ‘‹––‡†  ͵ͺǤͺ ‹ŽŽ‹‘ •‹ ‡ ʹͲͳͺǦͳͻ –‘ ‘—–‡” ˆ‘”‡‹‰ ‹–‡”ˆ‡”‡ ‡ǡ ‹ Ž—†‹‰ –‘ ‡•–ƒ„Ž‹•Š ƒ ‘”‡‹‰ –‡”ˆ‡”‡ ‡ Š”‡ƒ– ••‡••‡–‡–”‡‹–Š‡—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ‡ —”‹–› –‡ŽŽ‹‰‡ ‡”‰ƒ‹•ƒ–‹‘ ƒ†‡š–”ƒˆ—†‹‰–‘•—’’‘”– ”‹‹ƒŽ’”‘•‡ —–‹‘•—†‡”‡™ˆ‘”‡‹‰ ‹–‡”ˆ‡”‡ ‡‘ˆˆ‡ ‡•Ǥ͹

Š‡‘•–‘–ƒ„Ž‡‹•–Š‡ ‘”‡‹‰ ˆŽ—‡ ‡”ƒ•’ƒ”‡ › Š‡‡ȋ Ȍǡ ™Š‹ Š ‘‡ ‡† ‘ ‡ ‡„‡” ͳͲǡ ʹͲͳͺǤ  ‘”†‹‰ –‘ —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒǯ• ––‘”‡› ‡‡”ƒŽǯ• ‡’ƒ”–‡–ǡ –Š‡  ‹• –‘ ’”‘˜‹†‡ –Š‡ ’—„Ž‹  ƒ† ‰‘˜‡”‡– †‡ ‹•‹‘Ǧƒ‡”• ™‹–Š ˜‹•‹„‹Ž‹–› ‘ˆ –Š‡ ƒ–—”‡ǡ Ž‡˜‡Žƒ† ‡š–‡– ‘ˆ ˆ‘”‡‹‰ ‹ˆŽ—‡ ‡ ‘ —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒǯ• ‰‘˜‡”‡– ƒ† ’‘Ž‹–‹ ƒŽ ’”‘ ‡••Ǥͺ

Š‡• Š‡‡‹–”‘†— ‡•”‡‰‹•–”ƒ–‹‘‘„Ž‹‰ƒ–‹‘•ˆ‘”’‡”•‘•ƒ†‡–‹–‹‡• ™Š‘Šƒ˜‡ƒ””ƒ‰‡‡–•™‹–Šǡƒ†—†‡”–ƒ‡ ‡”–ƒ‹ƒ –‹˜‹–‹‡•‘„‡ŠƒŽˆ ‘ˆǡˆ‘”‡‹‰’”‹ ‹’ƒŽ•ǤŠ‡–Š‡”ƒ’‡”•‘‘”‡–‹–›‹•”‡“—‹”‡†–‘”‡‰‹•–‡” ™‹ŽŽ†‡’‡†‘™Š‘–Š‡ˆ‘”‡‹‰’”‹ ‹’ƒŽ‹•ǡ–Š‡ƒ–—”‡‘ˆ–Š‡ƒ –‹˜‹–‹‡• —†‡”–ƒ‡ǡ–Š‡’—”’‘•‡ˆ‘”™Š‹ Š–Š‡ƒ –‹˜‹–‹‡•ƒ”‡—†‡”–ƒ‡ǡƒ†‹ •‘‡ ƒ•‡•ǡ ™Š‡–Š‡” –Š‡ ’‡”•‘ Šƒ• Š‡Ž† ƒ •‡‹‘” ’—„Ž‹  ’‘•‹–‹‘ ‹ —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒǤ Š‡ • Š‡‡ ‡š‡’–• ’ƒ”Ž‹ƒ‡–ƒ”‹ƒ• ˆ”‘ ”‡‰‹•–”ƒ–‹‘ ‘„Ž‹‰ƒ–‹‘•ǡ™Š‹ ŠŠƒ•„‡‡ ‘–”‘˜‡”•‹ƒŽǤ

–‹•‡ƒ”Ž›–‘ƒ••‡••–Š‡‡ˆˆ‡ –‹˜‡‡••‘ˆ–Š‡• Š‡‡ǡƒ•‹–Šƒ•‘Ž›„‡‡‹ ’Žƒ ‡ˆ‘”‘‡›‡ƒ”ǤŠ‡”‡Šƒ˜‡„‡‡ƒ’’”‘š‹ƒ–‡Ž›ʹͲͲ‡–‹–‹‡•–Šƒ–Šƒ˜‡  犍 3ULPH0LQLVWHU0LQLVWHUIRU+RPH$IIDLUVDQG0LQLVWHUIRU'HIHQFH$XVWUDOLD 犒6WHSSLQJXS$XVWUDOLD犑V5HVSRQVHDJDLQVW)RUHLJQ,QWHUIHUHQFH犓'HFHPEHU犈 犈犆犇犏KWWSVZZZSPJRYDXPHGLDVWHSSLQJDXVWUDOLDVUHVSRQVHDJDLQVW IRUHLJQLQWHUIHUHQFH 犎 $WWRUQH\*HQHUDO犑V'HSDUWPHQW)RUHLJQ,QIOXHQFH7UDQVSDUHQF\6FKHPH $XVWUDOLDKWWSVZZZDJJRYDX,QWHJULW\IRUHLJQLQIOXHQFHWUDQVSDUHQF\ VFKHPH3DJHVGHIDXOWDVS[

6

 ”‡‰‹•–‡”‡†ǡ‹ Ž—†‹‰‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ•–Šƒ–•‹–‘ˆ‘”‡‹‰„‘ƒ”†•ǡ–Š‹–ƒ• ƒ†”‡•‡ƒ” Š‹•–‹–—–‹‘•–Šƒ–”‡ ‡‹˜‡ˆ‘”‡‹‰ˆ—†‹‰ƒ† ‘’ƒ‹‡•‘” ‘”‰ƒ‹•ƒ–‹‘•–Šƒ–Šƒ˜‡Œ‘‹–˜‡–—”‡•™‹–Šˆ‘”‡‹‰‡–‹–‹‡•Ǥͻ

Š‡• Š‡‡Šƒ•‘– ƒ’–—”‡†ƒ›‘ˆ–Š‡‘”‹‰‹ƒŽ‡šƒ’Ž‡•–Šƒ–™‡”‡ –‘—–‡† ƒ• ‡‰”‡‰‹‘—• Ž‡˜‡Ž• ‘ˆ ‹ˆŽ—‡ ‡Ǥ Š‡ ‘”‹‰‹ƒŽ †‘ƒ–‹‘•ˆ”‘ —ƒ‰ ‹ƒ‰‘ –‘ ƒ ƒ•–›ƒ”‹ ™‘—Ž† ‘™ „‡ ’”‘Š‹„‹–‡† ƒ• ˆ‘”‡‹‰ †‘ƒ–‹‘• ƒ”‡ „ƒ‡†ǡ „—– Š‹• ‘†— – ƒ• ƒ ‡ƒ–‘” ™‘—Ž† ‘– „‡ ”‡‰‹•–”ƒ„Ž‡ —†‡” –Š‡ ‘”‡‹‰ ˆŽ—‡ ‡ ”ƒ•’ƒ”‡ ›  Š‡‡ Ȃ ‡„‡”• ‘ˆ ’ƒ”Ž‹ƒ‡– ƒ”‡ ‡š‡’–Ǥ Š‡ —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒǦŠ‹ƒ ‡Žƒ–‹‘• •–‹–—–‡ƒ––Š‡‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ‡ Š‘Ž‘‰››†‡›ǡ™Š‹ Š™ƒ•ƒŽ•‘ˆ‘—†‡† „›ƒ†‘ƒ–‹‘ˆ”‘ —ƒ‰‹ƒ‰‘ǡ‹•ƒŽ•‘‘–”‡‰‹•–‡”‡†‘–Š‡• Š‡‡Ǥ 

Š‡”‡–Š‡• Š‡‡Šƒ•™‘”‡†ǡŠ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ‹•–‘’”‘˜‹†‡ƒ†‡–‡””‡–‡ˆˆ‡ – ‘ ’—„Ž‹  ‹•–‹–—–‹‘• –Šƒ– Šƒ˜‡ ’”‡˜‹‘—•Ž› ƒ ‡’–‡† ˆ—†‹‰ ˆ”‘ ˆ‘”‡‹‰•‘—” ‡•Ǥ—„Ž‹ ‹•–‹–—–‹‘•–Šƒ–”‡Ž›‘†‘ƒ–‹‘• ƒ„‡•‡‡–‘ „‡‹–‡””‘‰ƒ–‹‰ˆ—†‹‰•‘—” ‡•‹ƒ’”‡˜‹‘—•Ž›—’”‡ ‡†‡–‡†ƒ‡”ǡ ™‹–Š’ƒ”–‹ —Žƒ”‘”‰ƒ‹•ƒ–‹‘•–ƒ‹‰†‡ ‹•‹‘•–‘‘–ƒ ‡’–ƒ›ˆ—†‹‰ ˆ”‘ˆ‘”‡‹‰‰‘˜‡”‡–•ǤŠ‹•‹•‹’ƒ”–ƒ—•‡ˆ—Ž ‘•‹†‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒ•–‘ ™Š‡–Š‡” †‘ƒ–‹‘• ‘‡ ™‹–Š ’‘Ž‹–‹ ƒŽ •–”‹‰• ƒ––ƒ Š‡†ǡ ƒ† ‹ ’ƒ”– ƒ††‹‰ –‘ „—”‡ƒ— ”ƒ–‹  ‘’Ž‹ ƒ–‹‘•Ǥ  •‘‡ ƒ•‡•ǡ –Š‹• Ž‡˜‡Ž‘ˆ • ”—–‹› ƒ „‡ ‘˜‡”†‘‡ǣ •‘‡ ”‡•‡ƒ” Š ‘”‰ƒ‹•ƒ–‹‘• Šƒ˜‡ „‡‡ ƒ”‡ˆ—Ž ƒ„‘—– ƒ ‡’–‹‰ ‘ˆˆ‡”• ‘ˆ –”ƒ˜‡Ž ƒ† ƒ ‘‘†ƒ–‹‘ ‘•–• –‘ ƒ––‡† ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ‘ˆ‡”‡ ‡•ǡ ™Š‹ Š ƒ”‡ ’ƒ”– ƒ† ’ƒ” ‡Ž ‘ˆ „‡‹‰ ‡‰ƒ‰‡†‹‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ”‡Žƒ–‹‘•‘”‡ ‘‘‹ ™‘”Ǥ





 犏 ,ELG

7

 Confucius Institutes

‘ˆ— ‹—• •–‹–—–‡•ƒ”‡ƒ‘–Š‡”‡›‡šƒ’Ž‡ƒ•–‘™Š‡”‡–Š‡”‡Šƒ˜‡ „‡‡ “—‡•–‹‘• ƒ• –‘ ™Š‡–Š‡” –Š‡ • Š‡‡ ‹• ™‘”‹‰Ǥ ‘ˆ— ‹—• •–‹–—–‡• ƒ”‡ ƒˆˆ‹Ž‹ƒ–‡† ™‹–Š Š‹ƒǯ• ‹‹•–”› ‘ˆ †— ƒ–‹‘ǡ „—– ƒ”‡ –Š‘—‰Š––‘Šƒ˜‡†‡‡’–‹‡•–‘–Š‡‹–‡† ”‘–‘”‡’ƒ”–‡–‘ˆ–Š‡ Š‹‡•‡ ‘—‹•– ƒ”–›Ǥ ͳͲ  ‘ˆ— ‹—• •–‹–—–‡• Šƒ˜‡ –™‘ –›’‡• ‘ˆ ’”‘‰”ƒ•ǣ‡„‡††‡†‹—‹˜‡”•‹–‹‡•ƒ†‹’”‹ƒ”›• Š‘‘Ž•Ǥ

Š‡—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ•–ƒ–‡‘ˆ‡™‘—–ŠƒŽ‡•ȋȌ”‡ ‡–Ž›†‡ ‹†‡†–‘ –‡”‹ƒ–‡‹–•ƒ””ƒ‰‡‡–™‹–Š–Š‡‘ˆ— ‹—• •–‹–—–‡•ˆ”‘–Š‡‡†‘ˆ –Š‡ʹͲͳͻǤͳͳ Š‹•†‡ ‹•‹‘™ƒ•„ƒ•‡†‘–Š‡’‘–‡–‹ƒŽˆ‘”–Š‡’‡” ‡’–‹‘ –Šƒ– –Š‡ ‘ˆ— ‹—• •–‹–—–‡ ‹• ‘” ‘—Ž† „‡ ˆƒ ‹Ž‹–ƒ–‹‰ ‹ƒ’’”‘’”‹ƒ–‡ ˆ‘”‡‹‰‹ˆŽ—‡ ‡‹–Š‡†‡’ƒ”–‡–ǤŠ‡‡’ƒ”–‡–‘ˆ†— ƒ–‹‘ ”‡˜‹‡™ˆ‘—†–Šƒ––Š‹•†‡’ƒ”–‡–™ƒ•–Š‡‘Ž›‰‘˜‡”‡–†‡’ƒ”–‡– ‹–Š‡™‘”Ž†–Šƒ–Š‘•–•ƒ‘ˆ— ‹—• •–‹–—–‡ǡƒ†–Šƒ––Š‹•ƒ””ƒ‰‡‡– ’Žƒ ‡† Š‹‡•‡ ‰‘˜‡”‡– ƒ’’‘‹–‡‡• ‹•‹†‡ ƒ  ‰‘˜‡”‡– †‡’ƒ”–‡–Ǥͳʹ

 犇犆 $P\6HDULJKW犒&KLQHVH,QIOXHQFH$FWLYLWLHVZLWK86$OOLHVDQG3DUWQHUVLQ 6RXWKHDVW$VLD犓7HVWLPRQ\EHIRUHWKH86&KLQD(FRQRPLFDQG6HFXULW\5HYLHZ &RPPLVVLRQ$SULO犋犈犆犇犎KWWSVFVLVSURGV犉DPD]RQDZVFRPV犉IV SXEOLFSXEOLFDWLRQ犇犎犆犊犆犌B+HDULQJB$P\犈犆6HDULJKWB:ULWWHQB6WDWHPHQWB$SULO 犈犆犋犈犆犈犆犇犎SGI"X犌30N犏;M[L犍RM$K/;,PQYB2FL

8

 Confucius Institutes Š‡Š‹‡•‡‘•—Žƒ–‡Ǧ ‡‡”ƒŽ‹›†‡›”‡Ž‡ƒ•‡†ƒ•–ƒ–‡‡–•‡‡‹‰ Žƒ”‹ˆ‹ ƒ–‹‘ ˆ‘” –Š‡ †‡ ‹•‹‘ǡ ‘–‹‰ –Šƒ– –Š‡  ‡’ƒ”–‡– ‘ˆ †— ƒ–‹‘ ˆ‘—† ‘ ‡˜‹†‡ ‡ ‘ˆ ƒ –—ƒŽ ’‘Ž‹–‹ ƒŽ ‹ˆŽ—‡ ‡ –Š”‘—‰Š ‹–• ‘ˆ— ‹—• •–‹–—–‡’”‘‰”ƒǤͳ͵

7KHSLFWXUHVKRZVWKHRIILFLDORSHQLQJRI&0&,E\+(0U;,-LQSLQJ3UHVLGHQWRI3 5&KLQD 6RXUFH1DQMLQJ8QLYHUVLW\RI7UDGLWLRQDO&KLQHVH0HGLFLQH 

Š‡ •–‹–—–‡•ƒ”‡‡’‘™‡”‡†–‘–‡ƒ ŠŠ‹‡•‡Žƒ‰—ƒ‰‡ƒ† —Ž–—”‡ǡ „—– –Š‡”‡ ƒ”‡ ƒŽŽ‡‰ƒ–‹‘• –Šƒ– –Š‡› ƒ”‡ ǮǮ•’”‡ƒ†‹‰ Š‹ƒǯ• ’‘Ž‹–‹ ƒŽ ƒ‰‡†ƒǡ •—’’”‡••‹‰ ƒ ƒ†‡‹  †‡„ƒ–‡ ƒ† •–‡ƒŽ‹‰ ˜‹–ƒŽ ƒ ƒ†‡‹  ”‡•‡ƒ” ŠǤdzͳͶ

 ‡› ‡šƒ’Ž‡ ‘ˆ ™Š‡”‡ ’—„Ž‹  ‘ ‡”• Šƒ˜‡ •—”ˆƒ ‡† ƒ„‘—– ƒ ‘ˆ— ‹—• •–‹–—–‡‹•‹”‡Žƒ–‹‘–‘–Š‡‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ—‡‡•Žƒ†ǡ™Š‡”‡ –Š‡ ‹ ‡ǦŠƒ ‡ŽŽ‘” ‡–‡” ‘Œ ™ƒ• ƒŽ•‘ ƒ ‘•—Ž–ƒ– –‘ ƒ„ƒǡ –Š‡  犇犉 犒5HPDUNVE\WKH6SRNHVSHUVRQRIWKH&KLQHVH&RQVXODWH*HQHUDOLQ6\GQH\犓 $XJXVW犈犉犈犆犇犏KWWSV\GQH\FKLQHVHFRQVXODWHRUJHQJ[ZGWW犇犌犏犇犈犌犈KWP 犇犊 6HDULJKW犒&KLQHVHLQIOXHQFHDFWLYLWLHV犓 

9

 ‘”‰ƒ‹•ƒ–‹‘–Šƒ–ƒ†‹‹•–‡”•–Š‡‘ˆ— ‹—• •–‹–—–‡Ǥͳͷ Š‡‘ˆ— ‹—• •–‹–—–‡ǡ ‹ ƒ††‹–‹‘ –‘ –‡ƒ Š‹‰ Š‹‡•‡ Žƒ‰—ƒ‰‡ ‘—”•‡ǡ ˆ—†• ƒ† †‡•‹‰•ƒ—„‡”‘ˆ ‘—”•‡•ƒ––Š‡‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ—‡‡•Žƒ†Ǥ‡•— Š ‘—”•‡™ƒ•ƒ†‡”•–ƒ†‹‰Š‹ƒ‡ ‘‘‹ • ‘—”•‡–Šƒ–‹ Ž—†‡†ƒ ™‡‡‘DzŠ‹ƒǯ•‡‰ƒŽ‡•’‘•‡–‘‡””‘”‹•ǡdzͳ͸ ™Š‹ ŠŠƒ•”‡ˆ‡””‡†‹ ‘ˆˆ‹ ‹ƒŽŠ‹‡•‡•–ƒ–‡‡–•–‘–Š‡†‡–‡–‹‘‘ˆ‘˜‡”‘‡‹ŽŽ‹‘‹‰Š—”• ‹‹Œ‹ƒ‰Ǥ  —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ—‹˜‡”•‹–‹‡•Š‘•–‹‰‘ˆ— ‹—• •–‹–—–‡•Šƒ˜‡ International Students •‹‰‡† ƒ‰”‡‡‡–• ‡š’Ž‹ ‹–Ž› •–ƒ–‹‰ –Š‡› —•– ‘’Ž› ™‹–Š ‡‹Œ‹‰ǯ• †‡ ‹•‹‘Ǧƒ‹‰ƒ—–Š‘”‹–›‘˜‡”–‡ƒ Š‹‰ƒ––Š‡ˆƒ ‹Ž‹–‹‡•Ǥͳ͹

Š‡‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ—‡‡•Žƒ†™ƒ•ƒŽ•‘–Š‡•‹–‡‘ˆƒ ‘‰‘‰’”‘–‡•– ‘ —Ž›ʹͶ™Š‹ Š–—”‡†˜‹‘Ž‡–ǡ™‹–Š Žƒ•Š‡•„‡–™‡‡’”‘Ǧƒ†ƒ–‹Ǧ ‡‹Œ‹‰•–—†‡–•ǤŠ‡‘”‰ƒ‹•‡”•™‡”‡•—„•‡“—‡–Ž›ƒ —•‡†„›Š‹ƒǯ• ‘•—ŽǦ‰‡‡”ƒŽ‹”‹•„ƒ‡ǡ— ‹‡ǡ‘ˆ„‡‹‰Dz•‡’ƒ”ƒ–‹•–•dzƒ†Dzƒ–‹ǦŠ‹ƒ ƒ –‹˜‹•–•Ǥdzͳͺ Š‡’—„Ž‹ •–ƒ–‡‡–„›–Š‡Š‹‡•‡ ‘•—ŽǦ‰‡‡”ƒŽǡ™Š‹ Š ƒŽ•‘’”ƒ‹•‡†–Š‡Dz•’‘–ƒ‡‘—•’ƒ–”‹‘–‹•dz‘ˆ–Š‡’”‘Ǧ‡‹Œ‹‰•–—†‡–•ǡ ‰‡‡”ƒ–‡†•‹‰‹ˆ‹ ƒ– ”‹–‹ ‹•‹—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒǤ

 犇犋 %HQ3DFNKDP犒8QLYHUVLW\RI4OGDJUHHGWRSURPRWH&KLQD,QVWLWXWHGLGQ犑W GLVFORVH犓7KH$XVWUDOLDQ-XO\犈犌犈犆犇犏 KWWSVZZZWKHDXVWUDOLDQFRPDXQDWLRQSROLWLFVXQLYHUVLW\RITOGDJUHHGWR SURPRWHFKLQDLQVWLWXWHGLGQWGLVFORVHQHZV VWRU\犍H犈犇HG犏犎HF犏犋犋犉犆犎犊犈犋犆犆犉犍犆F犊F犊犊F犈犋 犇犌 'UHZ3DYORX2FWREHU犇犊犈犆犇犏 KWWSVWZLWWHUFRP'UHZ3DYORXVWDWXV犇犇犎犉犊犏犎犎犋犇犆犇犆犍犏犉犊犍犋"V 犈犆 犇犍 )HUJXV+XQWHU犒8QLYHUVLWLHVPXVWDFFHSW&KLQD VGLUHFWLYHVRQ&RQIXFLXV ,QVWLWXWHVFRQWUDFWVUHYHDO犓-XO\犈犋犈犆犇犏6\GQH\0RUQLQJ+HUDOG  KWWSVZZZVPKFRPDXSROLWLFVIHGHUDOXQLYHUVLWLHVPXVWDFFHSWFKLQDV GLUHFWLYHVRQFRQIXFLXVLQVWLWXWHVFRQWUDFWVUHYHDO犈犆犇犏犆犍犈犊S犋犈DE犏KWPO 犇犎 -DPLH6P\WK犒$XVWUDOLDWKHFDPSXVILJKWRYHU%HLMLQJ犑VLQIOXHQFH犓)LQDQFLDO 7LPHV1RYHPEHU犇犈犈犆犇犏KWWSVZZZIWFRPFRQWHQWI犋犌IFH犋犆II犇犉犇犇H犏 E犍EFI犉ID犊H犍犍GG犊犍

10

 Š‹• ‹• „› ‘ ‡ƒ• ƒ ‡™ ‹••—‡Ǥ  ʹͲͳ͵ǡ –Š‡ ‹˜‡”•‹–› ‘ˆ ›†‡› ƒ––‡’–‡† –‘ ”‡Ž‘ ƒ–‡ ƒ ƒ††”‡•• „› –Š‡ ƒŽƒ‹ ƒƒ ‘ˆˆǦ ƒ’—•ǡ „—– ‡˜‡–—ƒŽŽ›„ƒ ‡††‘™ƒˆ–‡” ”‹–‹ • Žƒ‹‡†–Š‡—‹˜‡”•‹–›™ƒ••‡‡‹‰ –‘ƒ’’‡ƒ•‡–Š‡Š‹‡•‡‰‘˜‡”‡–Ǥͳͻ Š‡’”‡˜‹‘—•›‡ƒ”ǡ–Š‡‘ˆ— ‹—• •–‹–—–‡ƒ–›†‡›‹˜‡”•‹–›Šƒ†Š‘•–‡†ƒ’—„Ž‹ Ž‡ –—”‡„›Šƒ‰—ǡ ƒ•–ƒ— Š ”‹–‹ ‘ˆ–Š‡ƒŽƒ‹ƒƒǤʹͲ

International Students

Š‡ ‹••—‡ ‘ˆ ‘ˆ— ‹—• •–‹–—–‡• ‹• ‘ˆ–‡ ‘ˆŽƒ–‡† ™‹–Š –Šƒ– ‘ˆ ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ•–—†‡–•‹ ‘‡–ƒ”›ƒ„‘—–ˆ‘”‡‹‰‹–‡”ˆ‡”‡ ‡ǤŠ‡ ‘ ‡”ƒ„‘—–‘ˆ— ‹—• •–‹–—–‡•‹•„ƒ•‡†—’‘–Š‡•—‰‰‡•–‹‘–Šƒ––Š‡ Š‹‡•‡ ‰‘˜‡”‡– Šƒ• –Š‡ ƒ„‹Ž‹–›ǡ ‹ •‘‡ ‘—”•‡•ǡ –‘ •Šƒ’‡ ‡†— ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ•–ƒ†ƒ”†•ƒ†•’”‡ƒ†’‘Ž‹–‹ ƒŽ’”‘’ƒ‰ƒ†ƒ–‘ƒŽŽ•–—†‡–•ǡ ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ‘” ‘–Š‡”™‹•‡Ǥ —– ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ •–—†‡–• Šƒ˜‡ ”ƒ‹•‡† •‡’ƒ”ƒ–‡ ‘ ‡”•ǣ–Š‡”‡ƒ”‡ƒŽŽ‡‰ƒ–‹‘•–Šƒ–‡‹Œ‹‰‹•‘‹–‘”‹‰‹–• ‘™ ‹–‹œ‡• ‘ ‘˜‡”•‡ƒ• ƒ’—•‡• ƒ† †‹”‡ –‹‰ •‘‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡ –‘ †‡˜‡Ž‘’ ”‡•‡ƒ” Š ‹ ƒ”‡ƒ• •— Š ƒ• ƒ”–‹ˆ‹ ‹ƒŽ ‹–‡ŽŽ‹‰‡ ‡ ƒ† ›„‡” •‡ —”‹–›ǡˆ‘”–Š‡„‡‡ˆ‹–‘ˆ–Š‡Š‹‡•‡’ƒ”–›Ǧ•–ƒ–‡‘”‡–—”Ǥʹͳ –—†‡–• ƒ† ’”‘ˆ‡••‘”• ˆ”‘ —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ —‹˜‡”•‹–‹‡• Šƒ˜‡ †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡† ƒ† ”‡•‡ƒ” Š‡† ƒ”–‹ˆ‹ ‹ƒŽ ‹–‡ŽŽ‹‰‡ ‡ǡ –Š”‘—‰Š –Š‡ —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ –ƒš’ƒ›‡”Ǧ  犇犏 $%&1HZV犒8QLYHUVLW\KDVFKDQJHRIKHDUWRQ'DODL/DPDYLVLW犓$SULO犈犉犈犆犇犉 KWWSVZZZDEFQHWDXQHZV犈犆犇犉犆犊犈犉XQLYHUVLW\RIV\GQH\WRKRVWGDODL ODPD犊犌犊犍犇犇犆 犈犆 -DFNVRQ.ZRN犒,V7KHUHD3UREOHPZLWK&RQIXFLXV,QVWLWXWHVLQ$XVWUDOLD犓 &KLQD0DWWHUV0D\犈犆犇犎KWWSFKLQDPDWWHUVRUJDXZS FRQWHQWXSORDGV犈犆犇犎犆犎&KLQD0DWWHUV([SORUHV犆犍0D\犈犆犇犎&RQIXFLXV ,QVWLWXWHVZLWK)HHGEDFNSGI 犈犇 3KLOOLS&RRUH\犒$6,2ZDUQVYLFHFKDQFHOORUVRYHU&KLQHVHVSLHVRQFDPSXV犓 $XVWUDOLDQ)LQDQFLDO5HYLHZ2FWREHU犇犎犈犆犇犍 KWWSVZZZDIUFRPSROLWLFVDVLRZDUQVYLFHFKDQFHOORUVRYHUFKLQHVHVSLHV RQFDPSXV犈犆犇犍犇犆犇犎J]犉犈D[

11

 ˆ—†‡†—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ ‡•‡ƒ” Š‘— ‹Žǡ™Š‹ ŠŠƒ• –Š‡„‡‡ —•‡† ‹ˆ‘” •—”˜‡‹ŽŽƒ ‡‹Š‹ƒǯ•‹Œ‹ƒ‰”‡‰‹‘Ǥʹʹ

Š‡”‡ ƒ”‡ ƒ’’”‘š‹ƒ–‡Ž› ͳͶͲǡͲͲͲ Š‹‡•‡ —‹˜‡”•‹–› •–—†‡–• ‹ —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒǤŠ‹‡•‡—‹˜‡”•‹–›•–—†‡–•ƒ‡—’ƒ’’”‘š‹ƒ–‡Ž›ʹ͵Ψ‘ˆ –Š‡–‘–ƒŽ”‡˜‡—‡ƒ––Š‡‹˜‡”•‹–›‘ˆ›†‡›ǡƒ•ƒ‡šƒ’Ž‡Ǥ—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ —‹˜‡”•‹–‹‡• Šƒ˜‡ „‡‡ †‡• ”‹„‡† ƒ• ‘˜‡”Ž› ”‡Ž‹ƒ– ‘ ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ •–—†‡–•Ǥ•–—†›„›–Š‡‡–”‡ˆ‘” †‡’‡†‡––—†‹‡••Š‘™‡†–Šƒ––Š‡ ‘•–•— ‡••ˆ—Ž‡”‹ ƒ’—„Ž‹ —‹˜‡”•‹–‹‡•™‘—Ž†‰‡‡”ƒŽŽ›ƒ‹ˆ‘” ƒ’’”‘š‹ƒ–‡Ž› ͳͲΨ ‘ˆ ‹–• •–—†‡– „‘†› –‘ „‡ ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽǡ –‘ ƒ†† †‹˜‡”•‹–›ƒ†‡š’‘•‡•–—†‡–•–‘–Š‡‹”’‡‡”•ˆ”‘ƒ”‘—†–Š‡™‘”Ž†ǤŠ‡ •ƒ‡ •–—†› •Š‘™• ͳͷΨ ‹• –Š‡ ƒš‹— ”‡ƒ•‘ƒ„Ž‡ Ž‡˜‡Žǡ ƒ† ʹͲΨ ”‡’”‡•‡–• Dz‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‹•ƒ–‹‘ ‰‘‡ ™‹Ž†Ǥdz Š‡ ƒ˜‡”ƒ‰‡ Ž‡˜‡Ž ‘ˆ ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ•–—†‡–•ƒ ”‘••–Š‡‡–‹”‡—‹˜‡”•‹–›•›•–‡‹—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ ‹•ʹ͸Ǥ͹Ψǡˆƒ”Š‹‰Š‡”Ǥʹ͵

Š‡‹••—‡‘ˆ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ•–—†‡–•ƒ†’‘–‡–‹ƒŽˆ‘”‡‹‰‹–‡”ˆ‡”‡ ‡‹ Enforcement —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ ‹• –Š‡”‡ˆ‘”‡ ƒŽ•‘ –‹‡† —’ ‹ —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒǯ• ‡ ‘‘‹  ‹–‡”†‡’‡†‡ ‡ ™‹–Š Š‹ƒǤ ‘”‡‹‰ •–—†‡–• ‘–”‹„—–‡†  ͵ʹ „‹ŽŽ‹‘ –‘ —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒǯ• ‡ ‘‘› ‹ –Š‡ ›‡ƒ” –‘ –Š‡ ‡† ‘ˆ —‡ ʹͲͳͺǤʹͶ Š‹ƒ‹•—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒǯ•Žƒ”‰‡•––”ƒ†‹‰’ƒ”–‡”Ǥ 

 犈犈 $OH[-RVNH犒7KH&RPSDQ\ZLWK$XVVLH5RRWV7KDW犑V+HOSLQJ%XLOG&KLQD犑V 6XUYHLOODQFH6WDWH犓7KH6WUDWHJLVW$XVWUDOLDQ6WUDWHJLF3ROLF\,QVWLWXWH$XJXVW 犈犌犈犆犇犏KWWSVZZZDVSLVWUDWHJLVWRUJDXWKHFRPSDQ\ZLWKDXVVLHURRWV WKDWVKHOSLQJEXLOGFKLQDVVXUYHLOODQFHVWDWH 犈犉 6DOYDWRUH%DERQHV犒+RZ0DQ\,QWHUQDWLRQDO6WXGHQWV$UH7RR0DQ\"犓7KH &HQWUHIRU,QGHSHQGHQW6WXGLHV KWWSVZZZFLVRUJDXFRPPHQWDU\DUWLFOHVKRZPDQ\LQWHUQDWLRQDOVWXGHQWV DUHWRRPDQ\ 犈犊 6P\WKHRSFLW

12

 ƒ„‡””ƒǯ•ˆ‘ —•‘”‘‘–‹‰‘—–ˆ‘”‡‹‰‹–‡”ˆ‡”‡ ‡ǡˆ‹”•–‹’‘Ž‹–‹ •ƒ† ‘™ —‹˜‡”•‹–‹‡•ǡ Šƒ• ƒŽƒ”‡† •‘‡ ‡Ž‡‡–• ‘ˆ –Š‡ —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ ‘—‹–›ǡ ™Š‘™ƒ” ‹– ”‹••Žƒ„‡ŽŽ‹‰ƒŽŽŠ‹‡•‡•–—†‡–• ƒ••’‹‡•ǡ ’”‘‘–‹‰ š‡‘’Š‘„‹ƒ ƒ† ƒ—•‹‰ ‹””‡’ƒ”ƒ„Ž‡ †ƒƒ‰‡ –‘ „‹Žƒ–‡”ƒŽ ”‡Žƒ–‹‘•™‹–ŠŠ‹ƒǡ™‹–Š–™‘Ǧ™ƒ›–”ƒ†‡™‘”–Šʹͳ͵„‹ŽŽ‹‘Žƒ•– ›‡ƒ”Ǥ —– ”‹–‹ • ‘—–‡” –Šƒ– —‹˜‡”•‹–‹‡• ƒ”‡ –—”‹‰ ƒ „Ž‹†‡›‡–‘ ‡‹Œ‹‰ǯ•ƒŽŽ‡‰‡†‹–‡”ˆ‡”‡ ‡‘ ƒ’—•„‡ ƒ—•‡–Š‡•‡ –‘”Šƒ•„‡ ‘‡ †‡’‡†‡–‘Š‹‡•‡‘‡›Ǥ

Š‡ —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ ‰‘˜‡”‡– Šƒ••–ƒ”–‡†–‘ –ƒ‡ •–‡’• ‹ –Š‹• ƒ”‡ƒǤ —‰—•–ʹͺǡʹͲͳͻǡ–Š‡‹‹•–‡”ˆ‘”†— ƒ–‹‘ǡƒ‡Šƒǡƒ‘— ‡†–Š‡ ‡•–ƒ„Ž‹•Š‡–‘ˆƒ‹˜‡”•‹–› ‘”‡‹‰ –‡”ˆ‡”‡ ‡ƒ•ˆ‘” ‡Ǥʹͷ ‡ƒŽ•‘ ”‡Ž‡ƒ•‡†ƒ‰—‹†‹‰ˆ”ƒ‡™‘”ˆ‘”–Š‡†‡˜‡Ž‘’‡–‘ˆ„‡•–’”ƒ –‹ ‡ ‰—‹†‡Ž‹‡•–‘ ‘—–‡”ˆ‘”‡‹‰‹–‡”ˆ‡”‡ ‡‹–Š‡—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ—‹˜‡”•‹–› •‡ –‘”Ǥʹ͸ Š‡ ‰—‹†‡Ž‹‡• ™‡”‡ †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡† ‹ ’ƒ”–‡”•Š‹’ „‡–™‡‡ –Š‡ ‰‘˜‡”‡–ƒ†–Š‡—‹˜‡”•‹–›•‡ –‘”Ǥ

Enforcement

‘˜‡”‡–• ƒ”‘—† –Š‡ ™‘”Ž† Šƒ˜‡ Ž‘‘‡† –‘ –Š‡ —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ ‡š’‡”‹‡ ‡ƒ•ƒ‡šƒ’Ž‡‘ˆŠ‘™–‘ ‘—–‡”ˆ‘”‡‹‰‹–‡”ˆ‡”‡ ‡Ǥ‘‡ Š‹‡•‡ƒ ƒ†‡‹ •Šƒ˜‡ ‘‡–‡†–Šƒ–Dz—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ‹•–Š‡’‹‘‡‡”‘ˆƒ ‰Ž‘„ƒŽƒ–‹ǦŠ‹ƒ ƒ’ƒ‹‰Ǥdzʹ͹

 犈犋 'HSDUWPHQWRI(GXFDWLRQ$XVWUDOLD犒(VWDEOLVKPHQWRID8QLYHUVLW\)RUHLJQ ,QWHUIHUHQFH7DVNIRUFH犓KWWSVZZZHGXFDWLRQJRYDXQHZVHVWDEOLVKPHQW XQLYHUVLW\IRUHLJQLQWHUIHUHQFHWDVNIRUFH 犈犌 'HSDUWPHQWRI(GXFDWLRQ$XVWUDOLD犒'HYHORSPHQWRI8QLYHUVLW\)RUHLJQ ,QWHUIHUHQFH7DVNIRUFH*XLGLQJ)UDPHZRUN犓 KWWSVGRFVHGXFDWLRQJRYDXQRGH犋犉犆犊犆 犈犍 (\N%DJVKDZDQG5RE+DUULV犒&KLQDFODLPV$XVWUDOLDWKH犐SLRQHHU犑RIDJOREDO DQWL&KLQDFDPSDLJQ犓6\GQH\0RUQLQJ+HUDOG6HSWHPEHU犈犊犈犆犇犏

13

 —– ‡ˆ‘” ‡‡– ‘ˆ —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒǯ• ‡™ • Š‡‡ –‘ ƒƒ‰‡ ˆ‘”‡‹‰ ‹–‡”ˆ‡”‡ ‡Šƒ•„‡‡ƒŽ‘•–‘Ǧ‡š‹•–‡––‘†ƒ–‡ǤŠ‡ˆ‘”‡‹‰‹ˆŽ—‡ ‡ –”ƒ•’ƒ”‡ ›• Š‡‡ƒŽŽ‘™•ˆ‘”–Š‡––‘”‡› ‡‡”ƒŽǯ•†‡’ƒ”–‡––‘ ‹••—‡ ƒ –”ƒ•’ƒ”‡ › ‘–‹ ‡ ‘ˆ‹”‹‰ –Šƒ– ƒ ’‡”•‘ ‹• ƒ ˆ‘”‡‹‰ ‰‘˜‡”‡–Ǧ”‡Žƒ–‡† ‡–‹–› ‘” ˆ‘”‡‹‰ ‰‘˜‡”‡–Ǧ”‡Žƒ–‡† ‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽǡ ™Š‹ Š–Š‡”‡“—‹”‡•–Š‡’‡”•‘•—†‡”–ƒ‹‰”‡‰‹•–”ƒ„Ž‡ƒ –‹˜‹–‹‡•‘ „‡ŠƒŽˆ‘ˆ–Š‡ˆ‘”‡‹‰’”‹ ‹’ƒŽ–‘”‡‰‹•–‡”Ǥ  ‘”†‹‰–‘’—„Ž‹ ”‡ ‘”†•ǡ‘Ž›‘‡•— Š–”ƒ•’ƒ”‡ ›‘–‹ ‡Šƒ•„‡‡ ‹••—‡†–‘†ƒ–‡ǣ–‘ˆ‘”‡”—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ”‹‡‹‹•–‡”‘›„„‘––ǡ’”‹‘” –‘ ƒ††”‡••‹‰ ƒ ‘•‡”˜ƒ–‹˜‡ ‘Ž‹–‹ ƒŽ  –‹‘ ‘ˆ‡”‡ ‡Ǥ ”Ǥ „„‘–– †‡ Ž‹‡†–‘”‡‰‹•–‡”ǡƒ†–Š‡”‡Šƒ˜‡„‡‡‘‘™ ‘•‡“—‡ ‡•‘ˆŠ‹• ˆƒ‹Ž—”‡–‘ ‘’Ž›™‹–Š–Š‡‘–‹ ‡Ǥʹͺ Š‡ ––‘”‡› ‡‡”ƒŽǯ• ‡’ƒ”–‡– Šƒ• ƒŽ•‘ „‡‡ ‹ †‹• —••‹‘• ‘” ‘””‡•’‘†‡ ‡ ™‹–Š •‡˜‡”ƒŽ ‘–Š‡” —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ ‘”‰ƒ‹•ƒ–‹‘• –‘ †‡–‡”‹‡ ™Š‡–Š‡” –Š‡› ƒ”‡ ”‡“—‹”‡† –‘ ”‡‰‹•–‡” —†‡” –Š‡ • Š‡‡Ǥ †— ƒ–‹‘‹‹•–‡”ƒ‡ŠƒŠƒ••ƒ‹†–Šƒ–DzŠ‡ƒ––‘”‡›Ǧ‰‡‡”ƒŽŠƒ• ƒ•‡† Š‹• †‡’ƒ”–‡– –‘ •’‡ ‹ˆ‹ ƒŽŽ› ‡šƒ‹‡ –Š‡ ƒ””ƒ‰‡‡–• „‡–™‡‡ ‘ˆ— ‹—• •–‹–—–‡• ƒ† —‹˜‡”•‹–‹‡• ‹ ‘”†‡” –‘ ‡•—”‡ ‘’Ž‹ƒ ‡™‹–Š–Š‡ȏ• Š‡‡ȐǤŠ‡—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ‰‘˜‡”‡–‡š’‡ –•‘—” —‹˜‡”•‹–‹‡•–‘Šƒ˜‡”‘„—•–‡ Šƒ‹••‹’Žƒ ‡–‘‡•—”‡‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ‡†— ƒ–‹‘’ƒ”–‡”•Š‹’• ‘’Ž›™‹–Š—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒŽƒ™•ǡ‡†— ƒ–‹‘“—ƒŽ‹–› •–ƒ†ƒ”†•ƒ†ƒ ƒ†‡‹ ˆ”‡‡†‘•Ǥdzʹͻ  KWWSVZZZVPKFRPDXSROLWLFVIHGHUDOFKLQDFODLPVDXVWUDOLDWKHSLRQHHURI DJOREDODQWLFKLQDFDPSDLJQ犈犆犇犏犆犏犈犊S犋犈XINKWPO 犈犎 $XVWUDOLDQ$VVRFLDWHG3UHVV犒7RQ\$EERWWVD\VKHZDVDVNHGWRUHJLVWHUDVD IRUHLJQLQIOXHQFHU犓7KH*XDUGLDQ1RYHPEHU犈犈犆犇犏 KWWSVZZZWKHJXDUGLDQFRPDXVWUDOLDQHZV犈犆犇犏QRY犆犈WRQ\DEERWWVD\V KHZDVDVNHGWRUHJLVWHUDVDIRUHLJQLQIOXHQFHUEHIRUHFSDF 犈犏 3DXO.DUS犒*RYHUQPHQWWRDVVHVVUHJXODWLRQRI&KLQHVHLQIOXHQFHDW XQLYHUVLWLHV犓7KH*XDUGLDQ-XO\犈犋犈犆犇犏

14

 –‹•ƒ‘ˆˆ‡ ‡—†‡”–Š‡Ž‡‰‹•Žƒ–‹‘–‘—†‡”–ƒ‡”‡‰‹•–”ƒ„Ž‡ƒ –‹˜‹–‹‡• ™Š‹Ž‡ ‘– „‡‹‰”‡‰‹•–‡”‡†ǡˆƒ‹Ž—”‡ –‘ˆ—Žˆ‹ŽŽ”‡•’‘•‹„‹Ž‹–‹‡•ǡ’”‘˜‹†‹‰ ˆƒŽ•‡ ‘” ‹•Ž‡ƒ†‹‰ ‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ ‘” †‡•–”‘›‹‰ ”‡ ‘”†• ‹ ‘‡ –‹‘ ™‹–Š –Š‡ • Š‡‡Ǥ Š‡ ’‡ƒŽ–‹‡• ƒ „‡ ƒ• •‡”‹‘—• ƒ• ˆ‹˜‡ ›‡ƒ”• ‹’”‹•‘‡–Ǥ͵Ͳ

Ž–Š‘—‰Š–Š‡‡š‹•–‹‰‡ƒ•—”‡•ƒ”‡›‡––‘„‡‡ˆ‘” ‡†‹ƒ‡ƒ‹‰ˆ—Ž ™ƒ›ǡ–Š‡‰‘˜‡”‡–ƒ’’‡ƒ”•–‘„‡‡‡”‰‹•‡†‹‹–•‡ˆˆ‘”–•–‘†‡–‡”ƒ† †‡–‡ –‹•–ƒ ‡•‘ˆˆ‘”‡‹‰‹–‡”ˆ‡”‡ ‡ǤŠ‡”‹‡‹‹•–‡”ƒ‘— ‡† ‘‡ ‡„‡”ʹǡʹͲͳͻǡƒ‡™‘—–‡” ‘”‡‹‰ –‡”ˆ‡”‡ ‡ƒ•ˆ‘” ‡ǡ ™Š‹ Š™‹ŽŽ™‘”™‹–Š ǡ—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ ‡†‡”ƒŽ‘Ž‹ ‡ǡ—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ‹‰ƒŽ• ‹”‡ –‘”ƒ–‡ ƒ† —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ ”ƒ•ƒ –‹‘ ‡’‘”–• ƒ† ƒŽ›•‹• ‡–”‡ ȋȌǤ͵ͳ –‹•–‘‘‡ƒ”Ž›–‘—†‡”•–ƒ†Š‘™–Š‹•„‘†›™‹ŽŽ‘’‡”ƒ–‡ǡ „—––Š‡‘‰‘‹‰ƒ‘— ‡‡–•ƒ† ‘‹–‡–‘ˆˆ—†‹‰Š‹‰ŠŽ‹‰Š–• –Š‡‹’‘”–ƒ ‡™‹–Š™Š‹ Šˆ‘”‡‹‰‹–‡”ˆ‡”‡ ‡‹•„‡‹‰–”‡ƒ–‡†„›–Š‡ Š‹‰Š‡•–Ž‡˜‡Ž•‘ˆ–Š‡—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ‰‘˜‡”‡–Ǥ

‡‘ ”ƒ ‹‡• Ž‹‡Ž› ƒ‘– „‡ ‡–‹”‡Ž› ‹‘ —Žƒ–‡† ƒ‰ƒ‹•– ƒ –‘”•–Šƒ– ™‹•Š–‘‹–‡”ˆ‡”‡Ǥ—–’‡‘’Ž‡ ƒ„‡‡†— ƒ–‡†ǡ’‡‘’Ž‡ ƒ„‡ƒ†‡ƒ™ƒ”‡ ‘ˆ–Š‡”‹••ǡƒ†‘•–‹’‘”–ƒ–Ž›ǡ’‡‘’Ž‡ ƒ“—‡•–‹‘’”‘’ƒ‰ƒ†ƒƒ† †‹•–‹‰—‹•Š „‡–™‡‡ ™Šƒ– ‹• ”‡ƒŽ ƒ† ™Šƒ– ‹• ˆƒ‡Ǥ ‡•‹Ž‹‡ ‡ ƒ† „‘Ž•–‡”‹‰‘ˆ‘—”†‡‘ ”ƒ–‹ ˜ƒŽ—‡•‹‘’‡•‘ ‹‡–‹‡•™‹ŽŽ„‡ƒ•

 KWWSVZZZWKHJXDUGLDQFRPDXVWUDOLDQHZV犈犆犇犏MXO犈犋JRYHUQPHQWWR DVVHVVUHJXODWLRQRIFKLQHVHLQIOXHQFHDWXQLYHUVLWLHV 犉犆 $WWRUQH\*HQHUDO犑V'HSDUWPHQW$XVWUDOLD犒)RUHLJQ,QIOXHQFH7UDQVSDUHQF\ 6FKHPHĂ)DFWVKHHW犇犍犓)HEUXDU\犈犆犇犏 KWWSVZZZDJJRYDX,QWHJULW\IRUHLJQLQIOXHQFHWUDQVSDUHQF\ VFKHPH'RFXPHQWVIDFWVKHHWVSHQDOWLHVIRUQRQFRPSOLDQFH HQIRUFHPHQWSGI  犉犇 3ULPH0LQLVWHUHWDORSFLW

15

 ‹’‘”–ƒ– ƒ• –Š‡ ’ƒ••ƒ‰‡ ‘ˆ Ž‡‰‹•Žƒ–‹‘ ‹ ‘—–‡”‹‰ ˆ‘”‡‹‰ ‹–‡”ˆ‡”‡ ‡Ǥ 

᱿

Natasha Kassam is a Research Fellow at the Lowy Institute in the Diplomacy and Public Opinion Program, directing the annual Lowy Introduction Institute Poll and researching China’s domestic politics, Taiwan, and Australia-China relations. Prior to this appointment, she was a diplomat in the Australian Embassy in Beijing, reporting on human rights, law reform, Xinjiang, and Tibet, and she was a law and justice advisor to the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI). During her time at Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, she was a member of the drafting team for the 2017 Foreign Policy White Paper.

᱿















 

16

 ,QWKH/LJKWRID&KLQD&ORXGLQJ(UD

$*ODQFHDW$XVWUDOLD熎V6WUDWHJLF /DQGVFDSHVLQWKH6RXWK3DFLILF

%\2GGLV7VDL

Introduction

Š‹ƒ Šƒ• ‘—–”— –Š‡  ƒ• –Š‡ ‘—–”› ™Š‹ Š Šƒ• –Š‡ ‘•– †‹’Ž‘ƒ–‹ ’‘•–•™‘”Ž†™‹†‡‹ʹͲͳͻǤͳ ›‰ƒ‹‹‰͹‘”‡ƒŽŽ‹‡•†‡ˆ‡ –‡† ˆ”‘ ƒ‹™ƒǯ• •‹†‡ •‹ ‡ ʹͲͳ͸ǡ Š‹ƒ ‘™ ”—• ʹ͹͸ †‹’Ž‘ƒ–‹  ’‘•–• ‰Ž‘„ƒŽŽ›ǡ–Š”‡‡‘”‡–Šƒ–Š‡Ǥʹ — Š‘—–”—‘–Œ—•–”‡ˆŽ‡ –•‡‹Œ‹‰ǯ• ƒ„‹–‹‘–‘‡š’ƒ†‹–•‰Ž‘„ƒŽ”‡ƒ Š„—–ƒŽ•‘’”‘˜‹†‡•ƒ Ž‡ƒ”‡••ƒ‰‡ –Šƒ–ƒ‹™ƒǯ•‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ•’ƒ ‡‹•–Š‡Žƒ•–•–”‘‰Š‘Ž†”‡Žƒ–‡†–‘Š‹ƒǯ• —Ž–‹ƒ–‡Dz™‹dz‹ƒǦ’”‡†‘‹ƒ–™‘”Ž†Ǥ ’ƒ”–‹ —Žƒ”ǡ–Š‡ƒ”‡ƒ–Šƒ–Ž‹‡• ‹„‡–™‡‡–™‘‰‹ƒ–•‹•–Š‡‘—–Šƒ ‹ˆ‹ Ǥ



犇 %HQ:HVWFRWW犒&KLQDKDVRYHUWDNHQ86DVZRUOG犑VODUJHVWGLSORPDWLFSRZHU WKLQNWDQNVD\V犓&111RYHPEHU犈犍犈犆犇犏 KWWSVHGLWLRQFQQFRP犈犆犇犏犇犇犈犌DVLDXVFKLQDGLSORPDF\ORZ\LQWO KQNLQGH[KWPO%RQQLH%OH\犒7KH1HZ*HRJUDSK\RI*OREDO'LSORPDF\&KLQD $GYDQFHVDVWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV5HWUHDWV犓)RUHLJQ$IIDLUV1RYHPEHU犈犍犈犆犇犏 KWWSVZZZIRUHLJQDIIDLUVFRPDUWLFOHVFKLQD犈犆犇犏犇犇犈犍QHZJHRJUDSK\ JOREDOGLSORPDF\

犈 7KRVHIRUPHUDOOLHVRI7DLZDQLQFOXGH6DR7RPHDQG3ULQFLSH 犈犆犇犌 3DQDPD 犈犆犇犍 WKH'RPLQLFDQ5HSXEOLF 犈犆犇犎 %XUNLQD)DVR 犈犆犇犎 (6DOYDGRU 犈犆犇犎  WKH6RORPRQ,VODQGV 犈犆犇犏 DQG.LULEDWL 犈犆犇犏 7KHQXPEHURI7DLZDQ犑VDOOLHV  GRZQVL]HGIURP犈犈LQ犈犆犇犌WR犇犋LQ犈犆犇犏 

17

 Š‡‘—–Šƒ ‹ˆ‹ Šƒ•Ž‘‰”‡’”‡•‡–‡†–Š‡•–”ƒ–‡‰‹ ‰ƒ–‡™ƒ›ˆ‘”–Š‡ –‘‡–‡”–Š‡ †‘Ǧƒ ‹ˆ‹ ™ƒ–‡”•ƒ†Š‡ ‡•‹‰‹ˆ‹ ƒ––‘–Š‡†‡ˆ‡ ‡‘ˆ —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒŠ‘‡Žƒ†ƒ†‘–Š‡”ƒŽŽ‹‡•ƒŽ‘‰–Š‡ƒ ‹ˆ‹  •Žƒ† Šƒ‹•Ǥ Š‹•‘’Ǧ‡†‹–”‘†— ‡•ƒ•–”ƒ–‡‰‹ ‘—–Ž‘‘ˆ”‘‘™†‡”ƒ†Š‹ƒǯ• Ž‘‘‹‰‡ ‘‘‹ ’‘™‡”–‘–Š‡‹•Žƒ†Ǧ†‘––‡†”‡‰‹‘Ǥ Australia’s Strategic View over the Region

The South Pacific

Š‡‘—–Šƒ ‹ˆ‹  ‘’”‹•‡•ˆ‘—”–‡‡ ‘—–”‹‡•ǡ‹ Ž—†‹‰‹‡•‘˜‡”‡‹‰ •–ƒ–‡•ƒ†ˆ‹˜‡ˆ”‡‡Ž›ƒ••‘ ‹ƒ–‡† ‘—–”‹‡•Ǥ͵ ƒ‘ƒǡƒ—”—ǡ‘‰ƒǡ ‹Œ‹ǡ ƒ’—ƒ‡™ —‹‡ƒǡͶ ‘Ž‘‘ •Žƒ†•ǡ—˜ƒŽ—ǡ‹”‹„ƒ–‹ƒ†ƒ—ƒ–—ƒ”‡ ˆ—ŽŽ›‹†‡’‡†‡–ǤŠ‡‘–Š‡”ˆ‹˜‡‡Œ‘›†‹ˆˆ‡”‡–†‡‰”‡‡•‘ˆƒ—–‘‘› ƒ ‘”†‹‰ –‘ –Š‡‹” ƒ‰”‡‡‡–• ™‹–Š ”‡‰‹‘ƒŽ ’‘™‡”•ǡ ™Š‹ Š ƒ”‡ ”‡•’‘•‹„Ž‡ˆ‘”–Š‡‹”†‡ˆ‡ ‡ƒ†•‡ —”‹–›”‡•’‡ –‹˜‡Ž›Ǥ ‡†‡”ƒ–‡†–ƒ–‡• ‘ˆ ‹ ”‘‡•‹ƒǡ ƒ”•ŠƒŽŽ •Žƒ†• ƒ† ƒŽƒ— •‹‰ –Š‡ Dz‘’ƒ –• ‘ˆ ”‡‡ ••‘ ‹ƒ–‹‘ ȋ Ȍdz ™‹–Š –Š‡ ‹–‡† –ƒ–‡•Ǥ Š‡  ˆˆ‹ ‡ ‘ˆ •—Žƒ” ˆˆƒ‹”• ȋ Ȍ ‘ˆˆ‡”• ˆ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ ƒ••‹•–ƒ ‡ –Š”‘—‰Š   ˆ”ƒ‡™‘”•ǡ ‹ ”‡–—”ˆ‘”–Š‡‡š Ž—•‹˜‡”‹‰Š–•‘ˆ–‘‘’‡”ƒ–‡‹Ž‹–ƒ”›„ƒ•‡•‘–Š‡•‡ ‹•Žƒ†•Ǥ‘‘ •Žƒ†•ȋͳͻ͸ͷȌƒ†‹—‡ȋͳͻ͹ͶȌ„‡ ‘‡•‡ŽˆǦ‰‘˜‡”‹‰‹ ˆ”‡‡ƒ••‘ ‹ƒ–‹‘™‹–Š‡™‡ƒŽƒ†™‹–Š‹•‹‹Žƒ”ƒ””ƒ‰‡‡–•Ǥ

—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒǡ‡™‡ƒŽƒ†ǡ–Š‡ƒ† ”ƒ ‡ǡ–Š‡•‡ˆ‘—”™‡•–‡”’‘™‡”• –”ƒ†‹–‹‘ƒŽŽ›’Žƒ›ƒ‘”‡’”‡†‘‹ƒ–”‘Ž‡‹–Š‹•’ƒ”–‘ˆ–Š‡™‘”Ž†ǤŠ‡› ˆ‘”–Š‡Dz—ƒ†”‹Žƒ–‡”ƒŽ‡ˆ‡ ‡‘‘”†‹ƒ–‹‘ ”‘—’dzȋ ‡ƒ‹ƒȌ –‘ˆ‘•–‡”—Ž–‹Žƒ–‡”ƒŽƒ’’”‘ƒ Š‡•‹‘”†‡”–‘–ƒ Ž‡–”ƒ†‹–‹‘ƒŽƒ†‘Ǧ  犉 7KH6RXWK3DFLILFLVDWHUPLQRORJ\ZLWKLQWKH7DLZDQHVHFRQWH[W,WLV VRPHWLPHVFDOOHGRWKHUZLVHGXHWRGLIIHUHQWVWUDWHJLFRXWORRNVIURPDOWHUQDWLYH FRXQWULHV)RULQVWDQFHWKH86DQG-DSDQPD\UHIHUWRWKLVYDVWDUHDDVWKHIRXU DGMDFHQWWKHDWHUVLQWKH3DFLILF:DUQDPHO\WKH1RUWK3DFLILF&HQWUDO3DFLILF 6RXWKZHVW3DFLILFDQG6RXWK3DFLILF 犊 3DSXD1HZ*XLQHDLVDOVRNQRZQDV31*

18

 –”ƒ†‹–‹‘ƒŽ •‡ —”‹–› ŠƒŽŽ‡‰‡•ǡ •— Š ƒ• ‹—‡ ”‡ƒ–›Ǥ ͷ ‘–ƒ„Ž›ǡ–Š‡  ‡ƒ‹ƒ•–ƒ–‡•Š‘Ž†–‡‘˜‡”•‡ƒ•–‡””‹–‘”‹‡•‹ ‡ƒ‹ƒ™Š‡”‡ Ͷ͵Ψ‘ˆ–Š‡š Ž—•‹˜‡ ‘‘‹ ‘‡ȋȌŽ‘ ƒ–‡•Ǥ͸

Australia’s Strategic View over the Region

The South Pacific ”‘ƒ„‡””ƒǯ•’‡”•’‡ –‹˜‡ǡ–Š‡”‡ƒ”‡–Š”‡‡’”‹ƒ”›•–”ƒ–‡‰‹ ‹–‡”‡•–• ‘””‡•’‘†‹‰ –‘ –Š‡ –Š”‡‡ǦŽƒ›‡”‡† ‘ ‡–”‹  ‹” Ž‡• ‘ˆ —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒǯ• †‡ˆ‡ ‡Ǥ

‹”•–Ž›ǡ–Š‡—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ‘–‹‡–™‹–Š•‡ —”‡‘”–Š‡”ƒ’’”‘ƒ Š‡•ƒ† ’”‘š‹ƒ–‡ •‡ƒ Ž‹‡• ‘ˆ ‘—‹ ƒ–‹‘ǡ –Š‹• ’ƒ”– ‘’”‹•‡• ‘ˆ –Š‡ ƒ‹Žƒ†ƒ†–Š‡‘”–Šƒ” ǡƒ‡Ž› †‘‡•‹ƒƒ” Š‹’‡Žƒ‰‘ƒŽ‘‰™‹–Š ƒ†Œƒ ‡– ‡Žƒ‡•‹ƒǤ Š‡ ‘”–Š‡” ƒ” Š ‹• –Š‡ ‰ƒ–‡™ƒ› ‘ˆ –Š‘•‡ –”ƒ†‡ ”‘—–‡•–‘•‹ƒƒ†•‡ —”‹–› Šƒ‡Ž•–‘ ƒ’ƒƒ––Š‡ ‹”•– •Žƒ†Šƒ‹ ƒ†–Š‘•‡„ƒ•‡•‹–Š‡‡ ‘†ƒ†Š‹”† •Žƒ†Šƒ‹•Ǥ 

‡ ‘†Ž›ǡ’‡ƒ ‡ƒ†•–ƒ„‹Ž‹–›‹‘—–Šƒ•–•‹ƒƒ†–Š‡‘—–Šƒ ‹ˆ‹ ǡ–Š‹• ’ƒ”– ‘‡ –•‘—–ŠŠ‹ƒ‡ƒǡ †‹ƒ ‡ƒƒ†–Š‡”ƒ„‹ƒ‡ƒ‹–Š‡ ™‡•–ǡƒ•™‡ŽŽƒ•ƒ”‹–‹‡–”ƒ•’‘”–ƒ–‹‘–‘‘”–Šƒ†‘—–Š‡”‹ ƒ‹ –Š‡‡ƒ•–Ǥƒ•–Ž›ǡƒ•–ƒ„Ž‡ †‘Ǧƒ ‹ˆ‹ ƒ†”—Ž‡Ǧ„ƒ•‡†‰Ž‘„ƒŽ‘”†‡”ǡ–Š‹•  犋 3DFLILF,VODQGV)RUXP)LVKHULHV$JHQF\ ))$ 犐犑1LXH7UHDW\犑犑 KWWSVZZZIIDLQWWD[RQRP\WHUP犊犋犇 犌 7KHWHQWHUULWRULHVLQFOXGH*XDP 86 1RUWKHUQ0DULDQD,VODQGV 86 :DNH ,VODQG 86 $PHULFDQ6DPRD 86 +DZDLL 86 1HZ&DOHGRQLD )UDQFH :DOOLV  )XWXQD )UDQFH )UHQFK3RO\QHVLD )UDQFH 7RNHODX 1= DQG1RUIRON,VODQG $XVWUDOLD LQDGGLWLRQWR8.犑V3LWFDLUQ,VODQGVDQG&KLOH犑V(DVWHU,VODQG犒&RDVW *XDUG1DY\&RPSOHWH-RLQW2FHDQLD0DULWLPH6HFXULW\,QLWLDWLYH3DWUROLQ3DFLILF 2FHDQ犓86,QGR3DFLILF&RPPDQG0D\犇犈犆犇犎 KWWSVZZZSDFRPPLO0HGLD1HZV1HZV$UWLFOH9LHZ$UWLFOH犇犋犆犏犈犏犏FRDVW JXDUGQDY\FRPSOHWHMRLQWRFHDQLDPDULWLPHVHFXULW\LQLWLDWLYHSDWUROLQ

19

 ’ƒ”–‹’Ž‹‡•–Šƒ–—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ–‡†•–‘ƒ‹–ƒ‹–Š‡•–”ƒ–‡‰‹ •–ƒ–—•“—‘‹– Šƒ•„‡‡‡Œ‘›‡†•‹ ‡–Š‡ƒ ‹ˆ‹ ƒ”Ǥ͹

ƒ„‡””ƒ’‡” ‡‹˜‡•–Š‡•‡ —”‹–›‘ˆ‹–•‹‡†‹ƒ–‡‡‹‰Š„‘—”Š‘‘†‘ˆ–Š‡ ‘”–Š‡”ƒ” Š‡“—ƒŽŽ› ”— ‹ƒŽƒ•‹–•Š‘‡Žƒ†„‡ ƒ—•‡—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒǯ•Ž‘‰ ‘ƒ•–ƒŽ Ž‹‡ ‹• ƒŽ‘•– ‹†‡ˆ‡•‹„Ž‡ ˆ‘” ‹–• ʹǤ͵ ‹ŽŽ‹‘ ’‘’—Žƒ–‹‘Ǥ › ‡š–‡”ƒŽ’‘™‡”ǯ•ƒ––‡’––‘’”‘Œ‡ –‹ˆŽ—‡ ‡‹–‘–Š‹•”‡‰‹‘™‘—Ž†„‡ •‡‡ ƒ•ƒ ’‘–‡–‹ƒŽ–Š”‡ƒ–†—‡ –‘ ‹–• ‡’‹”‹ ƒŽ‹•–‹ –• ˆ”‘–Š‡’ƒ•–Ǥ ‘”‡‘˜‡”ǡ ƒ› ƒ––‡’– –‘ „Ž‘  –Š‡  ƒ ‡•• –‘ ‘—–Š ƒ ‹ˆ‹  ™‘—Ž† Ž‡‰‹–‹ƒ–‡Ž›„‡•‡‡ƒ•Žƒ–‡–Š‘•–‹Ž‹–›•‹’Ž›„‡ ƒ—•‡‘ˆ—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒǯ•Ž‘‰ •–”ƒ–‡‰‹ –”ƒ†‹–‹‘–‘”‡Ž›‘ƒ‰Ž‘Ǧƒš‘’”‡†‘‹ƒ–’‘™‡”Ǥ 

China’s Trial in the Deep Waters

Š‹ƒǯ••‹Ž‡–‹‡”•‹‘‹–‘–Š‡‘—–Šƒ ‹ˆ‹ Šƒ•‘–”ƒ‹•‡†–Š‡ƒŽƒ” –‘ –Š‡ —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ ’—„Ž‹  —–‹Ž ”‡ ‡– ›‡ƒ”•Ǥ — Š ’‘™‡”ˆ—Ž ‹ˆŽ—‡ ‡ ™Š‹ ŠŠ‹ƒ‘™’‘••‡••‡•‹–Š‡‘—–Šƒ ‹ˆ‹ ǡ™‹–Šƒ‹–‡––‘’—”•—‡ ‹–‡”‡•–•‘ˆ–Š‡Žƒ”‰‡•–ƒ—–‘ ”ƒ ›‘‡ƒ”–Šǡƒ›•‘‡–‹‡•„‡”‡ˆ‡””‡† –‘–Š‡–‡”Dz•Šƒ”’’‘™‡”ǡdz‹’Ž›‹‰ƒ†‹•”—’–‹‰ƒ–—”‡‘ˆ•— Š’‘™‡” –‘ –Š‡ ”‡‰‹‘ƒŽ •–ƒ–—• “—‘Ǥ –”‹‰—‹‰Ž›ǡ —†‡” –Š‡•‡ ‹” —•–ƒ ‡•ǡ ƒ‹™ƒǯ• †‹’Ž‘ƒ–‹  ˆ‘‘–’”‹–• ‹ –Š‡ ”‡‰‹‘ –—” ‘—– –‘ „‡ ƒ —‡š’‡ –‡†‹†‹ ƒ–‘”‘ˆ•— Š’‡‡–”ƒ–‹‘Ǥ 

Š‹ƒǯ•Dz‡Ž–ƒ†‘ƒ† ‹–‹ƒ–‹˜‡dzȋ ȌŠƒ•ƒ”–‹ —Žƒ–‡†–Šƒ––Š‡‘—–Š ƒ ‹ˆ‹ ‹•ƒ’ƒ”–‘ˆ–Š‡„Ž—‡‡ ‘‘‹ ’ƒ••ƒ‰‡•ǡŽ‡ƒ†‹‰Š‹ƒǯ•™ƒ›–‘–Š‡ ‘’‡‘ ‡ƒǤͺ ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ†—‡–‘–Š‡Žƒ ‘ˆ’”‘’‡””‹•ƒ••‡••‡–ǡ–Š‘•‡  ’Žƒ••‘‡–‹‡•Ž‡ƒ†–‘•‘ƒ”‹‰†‡„–ˆ‘”Ž‘ ƒŽ ‘—–”‹‡•Ǥ‘‰ƒ‹•  犍 'HIHQFH:KLWH3DSHU犈犆犇犌'HSDUWPHQWRI'HIHQFHRI$XVWUDOLDQ*RYHUQPHQW 犈犆犇犌KWWSVZZZGHIHQFHJRYDX:KLWH3DSHU 犎 犒&KLQDSURSRVHV犐EOXHHFRQRPLFSDVVDJHV犑IRUPDULWLPH犓&KLQD'DLO\-XQH犈犇 犈犆犇犍KWWSVZZZFKLQDGDLO\FRPFQEXVLQHVV犈犆犇犍 犆犌犈犇FRQWHQWB犈犏犎犈犋犋犇犍KWP

20

 Š‡ƒ˜‹Ž›‹†‡„–‡†–‘Š‹ƒ„›‘˜‡”ʹͷΨ‘ˆ‹–• ǡˆ‘ŽŽ‘™‡†„›ƒ‘ƒǯ• ʹͲΨƒ†ƒ—ƒ–—ǯ•ͳ͹Ψ•–”‘‰Ǥͻ Š‡ƒ”•ŠƒŽŽ •Žƒ†•ǡ—˜ƒŽ—ǡƒ—”—ǡ ƒ†ƒŽƒ—ǡ–Š‡•‡†‹’Ž‘ƒ–‹ ƒŽŽ‹‡•‘ˆƒ‹™ƒƒ”‡ —””‡–Ž›–Š‡‘Ž›ˆ‘—” ‹•Žƒ†ƒ–‹‘•‹–Š‡”‡‰‹‘™Š‹ ŠŠƒ˜‡‘–Œ‘‹‡†–Š‡ Ǥ‘”‡‘˜‡”ǡ Š‹ƒǯ• –‘–ƒŽ –”ƒ†‡ ™‹–Š ƒ‹™ƒǯ• ”‡‰‹‘ƒŽ ƒŽŽ‹‡• ȋ ͵Ǥͺ „‹ŽŽ‹‘Ȍ Šƒ• ‡š ‡‡†‡† –Šƒ– ‘ˆ ‹–• ‘™ ƒŽŽ‹‡• ‹ –Š‡ ”‡‰‹‘ ȋ ͵Ǥͷ „‹ŽŽ‹‘Ȍ•‹ ‡ ʹͲͳ͹Ǥ ͳͲ  ‹Žƒ–‡”ƒŽ –”ƒ†‡ ‹†‡‡† ‰‹˜‡• ‡‹Œ‹‰ ‰”‘™‹‰ Ž‡˜‡”ƒ‰‡ ‘˜‡” ƒ‹’‡‹ǯ•”‡‰‹‘ƒŽˆ”‹‡†•Ǥ

ˆ‘‡Ž‘‘•ƒ––Š‡Ž‘ ƒ–‹‘•ǡƒ‹™ƒǯ•ˆ‘—”ƒŽŽ‹‡•‹–Š‡”‡‰‹‘Ž‹‡‹–Š‡ China’s Trial in the Deep Waters ‹†™ƒ›„‡–™‡‡—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒƒ† ƒ™ƒ‹‹ǡ–Š”‡‡‹‹ ”‘‡•‹ƒȋƒŽƒ—ǡ–Š‡ ƒ”•ŠƒŽŽ •Žƒ†•ǡ ƒ† ƒ—”—Ȍ ƒ† ‘‡ ‹ ‘Ž›‡•‹ƒ ȋ—˜ƒŽ—ȌǤ –‡”‡•–‹‰Ž›ǡ Š‹ƒǯ• –‡ †‹’Ž‘ƒ–‹  ƒŽŽ‹‡• ‹ ‘–”ƒ•– ”‡•– ‘ –Š‡ •–”ƒ–‡‰‹  ‘†‡• ‘ –Š‡ •‡ ‘† ƒ† –Š‡ –Š‹”† ‹•Žƒ† Šƒ‹•ǡ ƒ–—”ƒŽŽ› ‘˜‡”‹‰–Š‡ ‘Œ— –‹‘’‘‹–• ‘ˆ•—„ƒ”‹‡ ƒ„Ž‡• ƒ ”‘••–Š‡ ‘ ‡ƒ ȋ—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒǦ —ƒǦ ƒ’ƒƒ†—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒǦ ƒ™ƒ‹‹Ǧ™‡•– ‘ƒ•–ȌǤ



 犏 -DPLH6P\WK犒&KLQDZDUQHGWRUHIRUPLWVOHQGLQJWRLQGHEWHG3DFLILF,VODQGV犓 )LQDQFLDO7LPHV2FWREHU犈犆犈犆犇犏KWWSVZZZIWFRPFRQWHQW犉D犋犉犇犉犇DI犈G犋 犇犇H犏E犆犇犎犉HI犎犍犏犊E犇犍F犌 犇犆 &KLQD犑VWUDGHZLWKWKH0DUVKDOO,VODQGVDQG3DSXD1HZ*XLQHDFRPSULVHG 犍犈RILWVWRWDOWUDGHZLWK3,)PHPEHUV(WKDQ0HLFN0LFKHOOH.HU +DQ0D\ &KDQ犒&KLQD V(QJDJHPHQWLQWKH3DFLILF,VODQGV,PSOLFDWLRQVIRUWKH8QLWHG 6WDWHV犓6WDII5HVHDUFK5HSRUW86&KLQD(FRQRPLFDQG6HFXULW\5HYLHZ &RPPLVVLRQ-XQH犇犊犈犆犇犎S犍 KWWSVZZZXVFFJRY5HVHDUFKFKLQD(犈犎犆犏犏VHQJDJHPHQWSDFLILF LVODQGVLPSOLFDWLRQVXQLWHGVWDWHV

21

 ‹‰ˆ‹ ƒ–Ž›ǡ Š‹ƒ Šƒ• „‡ ‘‡ –Š‡ •‡ ‘†ǦŽƒ”‰‡•– †‘‘” –‘ –Š‡ ‘—–Š ƒ ‹ˆ‹  •‹ ‡ ʹͲͳͳ ™‹–Š  ͷǤͺͺ „‹ŽŽ‹‘ ™‘”–Š ‘ˆ ƒ‹†ǡ ƒ– Š‹‰—’ —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒǯ•͸Ǥ͹ʹ„‹ŽŽ‹‘ǡ™‹–Š‡‹Œ‹‰ǯ• ‘‹–‡–‘ˆͶ„‹ŽŽ‹‘ ƒ‹†‹ʹͲͳ͹ƒŽ‘‡ǤŠ‹ƒ ‘—Ž†”‡’Žƒ ‡—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒ‹–Š‡‡ƒ”ˆ—–—”‡‹ˆ‹– ‡‡’•‰‘‹‰‘–Š‡•ƒ‡–”ƒ Ǥͳͳ

&KLQDDQGWKH6RORPRQ,VODQGVVLJQHGDMRLQWFRPPXQLTXHLQ%HLMLQJRQ6HSWRQWKH HVWDEOLVKPHQWRIGLSORPDWLFUHODWLRQV 6RXUFH7KH6WDWH&RXQFLORI35& 

ƒ•–„—–‘–Ž‡ƒ•–ǡƒ”ƒ”‡Ž›‡–‹‘‡†•–”ƒ–‡‰‹ ‹’‘”–ƒ ‡‘ˆ–Š‡ƒ ‹ˆ‹ ǡ Ž‹‡• ‹ –Š‡ †‡‡’ ‘ ‡ƒȄƒ”‹‡Ǧ„ƒ•‡† ”ƒ”‡ ‡ƒ”–ŠǤ ‡•‡ƒ” Š‡”• Šƒ˜‡ Conclusion ˆ‘—† ͹ͺ •‹–‡• ‹ –Š‡ ”‡‰‹‘ ™‹–Š ”ƒ”‡Ǧ‡ƒ”–Š ‘ ‡–”ƒ–‹‘• ‘ˆ ƒ„‘—– ͲǤʹΨǤ – •— Š ‘ ‡–”ƒ–‹‘ǡ ‘‡ •“—ƒ”‡ ‹Ž‘‡–”‡ ‘ˆ •‡ƒǦˆŽ‘‘” —† ‘—Ž† •—ˆˆ‹ ‡ –‘ ‡‡– ‘‡Ǧˆ‹ˆ–Š ‘ˆ –Š‡ ™‘”Ž†ǯ• ƒ—ƒŽ ”ƒ”‡Ǧ‡ƒ”–Š  犇犇 -DPHV*ULIILWKV %HQ:HVWFRWW犒&KLQDFRXOGRYHUWDNH$XVWUDOLDDVELJJHVW GRQRUWR3DFLILFLILWSD\VXS犓&11$XJXVW犏犈犆犇犎 KWWSVHGLWLRQFQQFRP犈犆犇犎犆犎犆犏DXVWUDOLDFKLQDSDFLILFDLGEHOWURDG LQWOLQGH[KWPO犒3DFLILF$LG0DS犓/RZ\,QVWLWXWH KWWSVSDFLILFDLGPDSORZ\LQVWLWXWHRUJ

22

 †‡ƒ†Ǥͳʹ ‡•’‹–‡–Š‡‹ƒ–—”‹–›‘ˆ•‡ƒ„‡†‹‹‰–‡ Š‘Ž‘‰‹‡•ƒ––Š‡ ‘‡–ǡƒ’‘••‹„‹Ž‹–›‘ˆ–Š‡‘—–Šƒ ‹ˆ‹ „‡‹‰‡‡•Š‡†‹–‘’‘™‡” •–”—‰‰Ž‡• ‹ –‡”• ‘ˆ ”‡•‘—” ‡ ‘–”‘Ž ‹ ƒ ‡ƒ” ˆ—–—”‡ •Š‘—Ž† ‘– „‡ ‹‰‘”‡†ǡ’ƒ”–‹ —Žƒ”Ž›”‡ˆ‡””‹‰–‘–Š‡Ž‘‘‹‰‹‘Ǧ‡”‹ ƒDz‡ Šƒ”dz ™‡Šƒ˜‡™‹–‡••‡†–‘†ƒ›Ǥ

)LJXUH5(< UDUHHDUWKHOHPHQWVDQG\WWULXP 6HDEHG5HVHUYHV

6RXUFH

—•–”ƒŽ‹ƒǡ™‹–Š‹–••’‡ ‹ƒŽ‰‡‘Ž‘‰‹ ƒŽƒ††‡‘‰”ƒ’Š‹ ƒŽˆ‹‰—”‡•ǡ†‡’‡†• ‘ƒ•‡ —”‡‹‡†‹ƒ–‡‡‹‰Š„‘—”Š‘‘†–‘‡‡’Š‘•–‹Ž‡’‘™‡”‘ˆˆ•Š‘”‡Ǥ Š‡”‡ˆ‘”‡ǡ –Š‡ ‹•Žƒ†Ǧ•’”‡ƒ† ‘—–Š ƒ ‹ˆ‹  ‡ƒ• ‘– ‘Ž› Žƒ›‡”• ‘ˆ ’”‘–‡ –‹‘–‘‹–•Š‘‡Žƒ†ǡ„—–ƒŽ•‘’ƒ••ƒ‰‡•–‘ ‘‡ –ƒŒ‘”ƒŽŽ‹‡•Ǥ  犇犈

23

 ‘”‡†‘‹ƒ–‹‰”‘Ž‡‘ˆŠ‹ƒ‹–Š‡”‡‰‹‘™‘—Ž†‡˜‡–—ƒŽŽ›‡ƒ–Š‡ †‡‹•‡‘ˆ’”‡•‡ ‡‹–Š‡ ‹”•–ƒ†‡ ‘† •Žƒ†Šƒ‹•ǡŽ‡ƒ˜‹‰–Š‡ †‡‘ ”ƒ–‹ ™‘”Ž†‹–Š‡‡•–ƒ ‹ˆ‹ †‡ˆ‡ ‡Ž‡••Ǥ 

–‹•‘–‡™‘”–Š›–Šƒ–ƒ‹™ƒǯ•†‹’Ž‘ƒ–‹ ’”‡•‡ ‡‹•–—”‹‰‹–‘Dz–Š‡ ƒƒ”›‹–Š‡ ‘ƒŽ‹‡dz‹–Š‡‘—–Šƒ ‹ˆ‹ ‘™ƒ†ƒ›•ǤŠ‹•‡–ƒ’Š‘” ‹’Ž‹‡•–Šƒ–•— Šƒ‹†‡–‹–› ‘—Ž†„‡ƒƒ–—”ƒŽ„ƒ””‹‡”ƒ‰ƒ‹•–Š‹ƒǯ• ‹ˆŽ—‡ ‡Ǥ ‘”‡ ƒ† ‘”‡ Ž‹‡Ǧ‹†‡† ‘—–”‹‡•ǡ ‹ Ž—†‹‰ —•–”ƒŽ‹ƒǡ •–ƒ”––‘”‡ƒŽ‹•‡ƒˆƒ ––Šƒ–ƒ„Ž‘™‘ˆ —––‹‰–‹‡•™‹–Šƒ‹’‡‹™‹ŽŽ‘–Œ—•– •—ˆˆ‘ ƒ–‡ƒ‹™ƒ™‹–Š–Š‹‡”†‹’Ž‘ƒ–‹ ƒ‹”ǡ„—–ƒŽ•‘‡˜‡–—ƒŽŽ›”‹‰–Š‡ „‡ŽŽ–‘–Š‡”‡‰‹‘ˆ‘”–Š‡Ž‘‘‹‰Š‹‡•‡ƒ–‘•’Š‡”‡Ǥ





᱿

Oddis Tsai is a Policy Analyst at the Division for National Defense Resources and Industries, the Institute of National Defense and Security Research. He received his Master Degrees in Diplomatic Studies and Strategic Studies from the Australian National University. Oddis’ research topics cover the South Pacific region and defence industries.

᱿ 





   

24

 &XUUHQW3UREOHPVRI*HUPDQ\熎V $UPHG)RUFHV

%\:LOIULHGYRQ%UHGRZ

‹‰ƒ† ‘’Ž‡š‘”‰ƒ‹•ƒ–‹‘•‹‡˜‹–ƒ„Ž›ˆƒ ‡˜ƒ”‹‘—•‹†•‘ˆ’”‘„Ž‡•Ǥ Š‡ƒ”‡†ˆ‘” ‡•‘ˆ ‡”ƒ›ǡ‘™ƒ•–Š‡—†‡•™‡Š”ǡ‹• ‡”–ƒ‹Ž›ƒ „‹‰ƒ† ‘’Ž‡š‘”‰ƒ‹•ƒ–‹‘Ǥˆ–‡”–Š‡‡†‘ˆ–Š‡ƒ•–Ǧ‡•– ‘ˆŽ‹ –ǡ–Š‡ ‡”ƒ ‰‘˜‡”‡– ’—”•—‡† ƒ ’‘Ž‹ › ‘ˆ ”‡ˆ‘”‹‰ –Š‡ —†‡•™‡Š”ǡ ™Š‹ Š‹’Ž‹‡†ƒ“—ƒ•‹Ǧ’‡”ƒ‡–†‘™•‹œ‹‰‘ˆ„‘–Š–Š‡„—†‰‡–•’‡” ›‡ƒ”ƒ†–Š‡—„‡”‘ˆ•‘Ž†‹‡”•ǤŠ‡‘–‹˜‡„‡Š‹†–Š‹•’‘Ž‹ ›™ƒ•ƒ ‹š–—”‡‘ˆ‡ ‡••‹–‹‡• ‘ ‡”‹‰–Š‡ƒ†ƒ’–ƒ–‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡ƒ”‡†ˆ‘” ‡•–‘ –Š‡‡™ȋ„—–•‘‡™Šƒ–— Ž‡ƒ”ƒ† ‘ˆ—•‹‰Ȍ•–”ƒ–‡‰‹ ‡˜‹”‘‡– ƒ†‘ˆ”ƒ–Š‡”‹ŽŽ—•‹‘ƒ”›‡š’‡ –ƒ–‹‘•‘ˆƒDz’‡ƒ ‡†‹˜‹†‡†dzƒ†ƒŽ‡•• ‘ˆŽ‹ –—ƒŽ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ•›•–‡Ǥ 

ͳͻͺͷǡ–Š‡—†‡•™‡Š”™ƒ• ‘’”‹•‡†‘ˆ ƒǤͶͻͷǡͲͲͲ•‘Ž†‹‡”•ȋƒ„‘—– ͶͷΨ Šƒ˜‹‰ „‡‡ †”ƒˆ–‡†ȌǤ —”–Š‡”‘”‡ǡ ƒǤ ͳͺͲǡͲͲͲ ‹˜‹Ž ‡’Ž‘›‡‡• ™‡”‡†‡ƒŽ‹‰™‹–Šƒ†‹‹•–”ƒ–‹˜‡ƒ†‘–Š‡”‘Ǧ‹Ž‹–ƒ”›ƒ•’‡ –•‘ˆ–Š‡ ‘”‰ƒ‹•ƒ–‹‘Ǥ –Š‘•‡†ƒ›•ǡ–Š‡—†‡•™‡Š”™ƒ•ƒ ‘’ƒ”ƒ–‹˜‡Ž›•–”‘‰ ‘˜‡–‹‘ƒŽȋᆇ ‹†‡†Ž›‘Ǧ— Ž‡ƒ”Ȍ’ƒ”–‘ˆ–Š‡‘”–Š–Žƒ–‹ ”‡ƒ–› ”‰ƒ‹œƒ–‹‘ǯ•ȋȌ•–”ƒ–‡‰›‘ˆ†‡–‡””‡ ‡’Ž—•ǡ‹ˆ†‡–‡””‡ ‡™‘—Ž† ˆƒ‹Žǡ–Š‡†‡–‡”‹ƒ–‹‘–‘†‡ˆ‡†–Š‡–‡””‹–‘”›‘ˆ‡•– ‡”ƒ›ƒ†–Š‡ –‡””‹–‘”‹‡•‘ˆ‹–• ƒŽŽ‹‡•Ǥ Š‡ ‡† ‘ˆ–Š‡ ƒ•–Ǧ‡•– ‘ˆŽ‹ –—ŽŽ‹ˆ‹‡†–Š‹• •–”ƒ–‡‰‹ ˆ”ƒ‡™‘”Ǥ—„•‡“—‡–Ž›ǡ–Š‡–Š”‡‡†‡ ƒ†‡•ƒˆ–‡”ͳͻͻͲ™‡”‡ Šƒ”ƒ –‡”‹œ‡†„›˜ƒ”‹‘—•ƒ––‡’–•–‘†‡ˆ‹‡‡™–ƒ••ƒ†‹••‹‘•ˆ‘” –Š‡ƒ”‡†ˆ‘” ‡•ǡ‹ƒ ‘”†ƒ ‡™‹–Šƒ†‹’”‘•’‡ –‘ˆƒ‡˜‡”Ǧ ‰”‘™‹‰’‘Ž‹–‹ ƒŽƒ†‹Ž‹–ƒ”›‹–‡‰”ƒ–‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡—”‘’‡ƒ‹‘ǤŠ‡ ˜ƒ”‹‘—• ”‡ˆ‘” •–‡’•ǡ –”ƒ•ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘•ǡ ƒ† ”‡Ǧ’”‹‘”‹–‹œ‹‰ †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡† ‹–‘ ƒ ’ƒ‹ˆ—Ž ”‹•‹• ‘ˆ ‘ˆ‹†‡ ‡ ‹ ƒ† •‡ŽˆǦ ‘ˆ‹†‡ ‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡

25

 —†‡•™‡Š”Ǥ –• —””‡–•‹œ‡‹•— Š•ƒŽŽ‡”–Šƒƒ––Š‡‡†‘ˆ–Š‡ƒ•–Ǧ ‡•–Ǧ ‘ˆŽ‹ –ǣ ƒǤ ͳͺͲǡͲͲͲ •‘Ž†‹‡”•ǡ ‹ Ž—†‹‰ ƒǤ ͺǡͷͲͲ •Š‘”–Ǧ–‡” ˜‘Ž—–‡‡”•Ǥ‘„”‡ƒ‹–†‘™ǡ ƒǤ͸ͳǡͲͲͲ•‘Ž†‹‡”••‡”˜‡‹–Š‡”›ǡ™Š‹Ž‡ ƒǤʹͺǡͲͲͲƒ”‡‹–Š‡‹” ‘” ‡ƒ† ƒǤͳ͸ǡͲͲͲ‹–Š‡ƒ˜›ǤŠ‡‡†‹ ƒŽ ‡”˜‹ ‡‘ˆ–Š‡—†‡•™‡Š” ‘–ƒ‹•ƒ’’”‘š‹ƒ–‡Ž›ʹͲǡͲͲͲ•‘Ž†‹‡”•ƒ† –Š‡ ‘‹–—’’‘”–‡”˜‹ ‡ƒ„‘—–ʹ͹ǡͷͲͲ•‘Ž†‹‡”•Ǥ‹ ‡ʹͲͳ͹ǡ–Š‡•‘Ǧ ƒŽŽ‡† ›„‡”Ǧ ƒ† ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ ‘‘ ȋ Ȍ ‡š‹•–• ƒ• ƒ •‡’ƒ”ƒ–‡ ‘”‰ƒ‹•ƒ–‹‘ †‘ƒ‹™‹–Š‡ƒ”Ž›ͳ͵ǡͲͲͲ•‘Ž†‹‡”•ƒ––Š‹•’‘‹–‹–‹‡ǤŽ‹‰Š–Ž›‘”‡ –ŠƒʹʹǡͲͲͲ•‘Ž†‹‡”•‘ˆƒŽŽ„”ƒ Š‡•‘ˆ–Š‡—†‡•™‡Š”ƒ”‡ˆ‡ƒŽ‡Ǥ  ƒ††‹–‹‘ǡ–Š‡—„‡”‘ˆ ‹˜‹Ž‡’Ž‘›‡‡•‘ˆ–Š‡ƒ”‡†ˆ‘” ‡•Šƒ•†”‘’’‡† –‘ƒ”‘—†͹ͲǡͲͲͲǤ

Š‡ ƒ‹ ’”‘„Ž‡• ‘ˆ –Š‡ —†‡•™‡Š” ”‡•—Ž– ˆ”‘ — Ž‡ƒ” ‘ ‡’–• ƒ„‘—–‹–•‹Ž‹–ƒ”›†‘ –”‹‡ƒ†’”‹‘”‹–‹‡•ǡ†‡ˆ‹ ‹–•™‹–Š–Š‡’”‘ —”‡‡– ‘ˆƒ”•ƒ†‹Ž‹–ƒ”›‡“—‹’‡–ǡˆ”‘„—”‡ƒ— ”ƒ–‹ •‡ŽˆǦ„Ž‘ ƒ†‡•ǡƒ† ˆ”‘ –Š‡ ”ƒ–Š‡” —‹“—‡ Ž‡‰ƒŽ „ƒ•‹• ‘ˆ ‹–• ‹Ž‹–ƒ”› ‹••‹‘•Ǥ  ˆ‘—”–Š ’”‘„Ž‡ƒ”‹•‡•ˆ”‘–Š‡ƒŽ•‘”ƒ–Š‡”—‹“—‡’—„Ž‹ ”‡Ž— –ƒ ‡–‘ƒ ‡’– –Š‡ƒ”‡†ˆ‘” ‡•ƒ•ƒŽ‡‰‹–‹ƒ–‡‹•–”—‡–ˆ‘”–Š‡†‡ˆ‡ ‡ƒ†ƒ••‡”–‹‘ ‘ˆ–Š‡ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‹–‡”‡•–Ǥ‘ƒ˜‘‹†‹•—†‡”•–ƒ†‹‰•ǡ–Š‡—†‡•™‡Š” ƒ† ‹–• •‘Ž†‹‡”• ƒ”‡ ‡”–ƒ‹Ž› Š‹‰ŠŽ› ‡•–‡‡‡† „› –Š‡ ƒŒ‘”‹–› ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‡”ƒ’‡‘’Ž‡ǤŠ‹•‰‡‡”ƒŽ•—’’‘”–‹ Ž—†‡•ƒŠ‹‰Š”ƒ–‡‘ˆ ‘•‡–™‹–Š ƒŽŽ‹†•‘ˆŠ—ƒ‹–ƒ”‹ƒƒ†‘Ǧ‹Ž‹–ƒ”›‹••‹‘•Ǥ ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ‹–†‘‡• ‘–‡š–‡†–‘‰‡—‹‡‹Ž‹–ƒ”›‹••‹‘•‘ˆ–Š‡—†‡•™‡Š”Ǥ   ƒ•‡‹ ’‘‹–‹•–Š‡’—„Ž‹ ”‡Ž— –ƒ ‡–‘‹†‡–‹ˆ›™‹–Š–Š‡—†‡•™‡Š”‹••‹‘ ƒ•’ƒ”–‘ˆ  ȋ –‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‡ —”‹–›••‹•–ƒ ‡ ‘” ‡Ȍ‹ˆ‰Šƒ‹•–ƒǤ

NATO and European Union

Š‡ —†‡•™‡Š” ‹• ˆ‹”Ž› ƒ Š‘”‡† ‹ –™‘ ƒŽŽ‹ƒ ‡• Ȃ  ƒ† –Š‡ ‘‘‡ —”‹–›ƒ†‡ˆ‡ ‡‘Ž‹ ›ȋȌ‘ˆ–Š‡—”‘’‡ƒ‹‘ǤŠ‡ ’”‘„Ž‡ ‹• –Šƒ– –Š‡•‡ –™‘ —Ž–‹Žƒ–‡”ƒŽ ƒŽŽ‹ƒ ‡•ǡ †‡•’‹–‡ ƒŽŽ –Š‡‹”

26

 ‹•–‹–—–‹‘ƒŽŽ‹•ǡƒ”‡„ƒ•‡†‘†‹ˆˆ‡”‡–’‘Ž‹–‹ ƒŽ‹–‡”‡•–•ƒ††‹ˆˆ‡”‡– ‹Ž‹–ƒ”› ƒ’ƒ ‹–‹‡•Ǥ Ǧ†‘‹ƒ–‡†  •‡”˜‡•ǡ ˆ‹”•– ƒ† ˆ‘”‡‘•–ǡ ‡”‹ ƒ‹–‡”‡•–•„—–‹••–‹ŽŽ”‡‰ƒ”†‡†ƒ•ƒ‡ˆˆ‹ ‹‡–’”‘–‡ –‹‘•Š‹‡Ž† ˆ‘” —”‘’‡ ƒ‰ƒ‹•– ‹Ž‹–ƒ”› ’”‡••—”‡•ǡ ‡Ǥ‰Ǥ „› —••‹ƒǤ Š‡ —”‘’‡ƒ ‹‘ǡ‘–Š‡‘–Š‡”Šƒ†ǡ‹•‡˜‡”›–Š‹‰„—–ƒ‹Ž‹–ƒ”›—‹‘ǡƒ†‹–•ƒ› ƒ––‡’–•–‘ ”‡ƒ–‡ƒ ‘‘†‡ˆ‡ ‡ƒ†•‡ —”‹–›’‘Ž‹ ›ƒ†ƒ ‘‘ —”‘’‡ƒ ƒ”› ”‡ƒ‹ ’ƒ– Š™‘” ƒ– „‡•–Ǥ ”ƒ†‹–‹‘ƒŽŽ›ǡ ‡”ƒ ‰‘˜‡”‡–•’—”•—‡ƒ„ƒŽƒ ‹‰ƒ –„‡–™‡‡–Š‡•‡’ƒ”–Ž›‘˜‡”Žƒ’’‹‰ „—–‘ˆ–‡ƒ”†—‘—•Ž›”‡ ‘ ‹Žƒ„Ž‡ƒŽŽ‹ƒ ‡•Ǥ˜‡”–Š‡Žƒ•–›‡ƒ”•ǡ–Š‡”—’ ƒ†‹‹•–”ƒ–‹‘Šƒ•‘–ƒ‡–Š‹‰•ƒ›‡ƒ•‹‡”Ǥ 

1$726HFUHWDU\*HQHUDO6WROWHQEHUJDQGWKHVWDWHVHFUHWDU\'HIHQVHRI*HUPDQ\'U 3HWHU7DXEHU 6RXUFH1$72  NATO and European Union –Š‡†‘‡•–‹ Ž‡˜‡Žǡ–Š‡—†‡•™‡Š”‹•†‡‡’Ž›‡„‡††‡†‹’‘Ž‹–‹ ƒŽ •–”— –—”‡•–Šƒ–ƒ”‡‹–‡†‡†–‘‰—ƒ”ƒ–‡‡–Š‡’”‹ƒ ›‘ˆ ‹˜‹Ž’‘Ž‹–‹ •Ǥ• •— Šǡ‡˜‡”›‹••‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡—†‡•™‡Š”‘—–Ǧ‘ˆǦƒ”‡ƒȋ„‡›‘†–Š‡–‡””‹–‘”› ‘ˆȌ—•–„‡ƒ’’”‘˜‡†„›–Š‡ ‡”ƒƒ”Ž‹ƒ‡–ǤŠ‡•‡•–ƒ— Š

27

 –‹‡•†‡˜‡Ž‘’‡†•‹ ‡–Š‡‹†ǦͳͻͷͲ•™Š‡–Š‡—†‡•™‡Š”™ƒ•ˆ‘—†‡†Ǥ ‹˜‹Ž ƒ† †‡‘ ”ƒ–‹  ‘–”‘Ž ‘ˆ –Š‡ ƒ”‡† ˆ‘” ‡• ‹• ƒ ’‘•‹–‹˜‡ ƒ Š‹‡˜‡‡–‹ ‡”ƒ›ǯ•‹Ž‹–ƒ”›Š‹•–‘”›Ǥ –•†‘™•‹†‡ǡŠ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ‹•ƒ Self-Perception and Military Tradition ™‹†‡•’”‡ƒ† ‘˜‹ –‹‘–Šƒ– ‡”ƒ›†‘‡•‘–”‡ƒŽŽ›‡‡†–Š‡‹Ž‹–ƒ”›ƒ• ƒ‹•–”—‡–‘ˆ’‘Ž‹–‹ •Ǥ‘•‡“—‡–Ž›ǡ‹˜‹‡™‘ˆ•‡ —”‹–›’”‘„Ž‡•ƒ† ‹Ž‹–ƒ”› ‘ˆŽ‹ –•ǡ –Š‡‹Ž‹–ƒ”›•–”ƒ–‡‰‹ †‹• ‘—”•‡ ‹ ‡”ƒ›‹•‘ˆ–‡ ™‡ƒƒ† ‘ˆ—•‡†Ǥ

New Wine in Old Skins

‡ ‡–Ž›ǡ •‘‡ –Š‹‰• Šƒ˜‡ Šƒ‰‡†Ǥ Š‡ ”‡Žƒ–‹˜‡Ž› •ƒŽŽ •–”ƒ–‡‰‹  ‘—‹–›‹ ‡”ƒ›Šƒ•–”‹‡†–‘‹‹–‹ƒ–‡ƒ†‡„ƒ–‡‘ƒ‘”‡ƒ –‹˜‡ •‡ —”‹–› ƒ† †‡ˆ‡•‡ ’‘Ž‹ › ƒ† ‘ ƒ ‘”‡ ˜‹•‹„Ž‡ ”‘Ž‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡ ƒ”‡† ˆ‘” ‡•Ǥ Š‡ •’‡‡ Š‡• ‘ˆ ‡†‡”ƒŽ ”‡•‹†‡– ‘ƒ Š‹ ƒ— ǡ ‘”‡‹‰ ‹‹•–‡” ”ƒǦƒŽ–‡”–‡‹‡‹‡”ǡƒ†‡ˆ‡•‡‹‹•–‡””•—Žƒ˜‘†‡” ‡›‡ƒ––Š‡—‹ Š‡ —”‹–›‘ˆ‡”‡ ‡‹ʹͲͳͶƒ‘— ‡†ƒˆƒ”‡™‡ŽŽ –‘ –Š‡ ’‘Ž‹ ›Ǧ‰—‹†‹‰ ’”‹ ‹’Ž‡ ‘ˆ Ǯ ‹˜‹Ž ’‘™‡”ǯ ™‹–Š‘—– ‹Ž‹–ƒ”› –‡‡–ŠǤ Š‹•ƒ‘— ‡‡–™ƒ•ƒ Ž‡ƒ”•‹‰ƒŽǡ„—–‹–†‹†‘–•‡‡•–”‘‰‡‘—‰Š –‘ „”‹‰ ƒ„‘—– –Š‡ ‡ ‡••ƒ”› ‘ ‡’–—ƒŽ Šƒ‰‡• Ȃ †‡•’‹–‡ ƒ› ƒ†‹‹•–”ƒ–‹˜‡ƒ––‡’–•ǡ•‘‡‘ˆ™Š‹ Šƒ”‡†‘ —‡–‡†‹–Š‡Š‹–‡ ƒ’‡”‘ˆʹͲͳ͸ƒ†‹–Š‡‡™‘ ‡’–‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡—†‡•™‡Š”‘ˆʹͲͳͺǤ ˆ‘”–—ƒ–‡Ž›ǡ–Š‡•‡†‘ —‡–•”‡ƒ‹‘•–Ž›‘–Š‡Ž‡˜‡Ž‘ˆ–ƒ”‰‡–• ƒ†ƒ†˜‡”–‹•‡‡–•ǤŠ‡•–›Ž‡ƒ††›ƒ‹ •‘ˆ ‡”ƒ›ǯ••‡ —”‹–›ƒ† †‡ˆ‡•‡’‘Ž‹ ›†‹†‘–”‡ƒŽŽ› Šƒ‰‡Ǥ ƒ††‹–‹‘ǡ–Š‡—†‡•™‡Š”•ƒ ‹–‘ƒ•™ƒ’‘ˆ ‘„‹‡† ”‹•‡•Ǥ

Š‡ ‘˜‡”Ǧƒ” Š‹‰ ƒ† ‘•– •ƒŽ‹‡– †‹ˆˆ‹ —Ž–› ™Š‹ Š •–”ƒ‹‡† –Š‡ ’”‘ˆ‡••‹‘ƒŽ†ƒ‹Ž›Ž‹ˆ‡‘ˆ–Š‡—†‡•™‡Š”ƒ†‹–••‘Ž†‹‡”•‘˜‡”–Š‡’ƒ•– –‡ǡˆ‹ˆ–‡‡›‡ƒ”•ƒ†–Š”‡ƒ–‡•–‘†‘•‘‹–Š‡›‡ƒ”•ƒŠ‡ƒ†‹• ‡–”‡† ƒ”‘—†–Š‡†‡‡’Ǧ”‘‘–‡†•–”— –—”ƒŽ’”‘„Ž‡‘ˆƒ’ƒ”ƒŽ›•‹‰„—”‡ƒ— ”ƒ ›Ǥ –•†‡„‹Ž‹–ƒ–‹‰‡ˆˆ‡ –• ”‹’’Ž‡–Š‡‹†‹˜‹†—ƒŽ•‡•‡‘ˆ”‡•’‘•‹„‹Ž‹–›ƒ†

28

 †‹• ‘—”ƒ‰‡ ”‡ƒ–‹˜‡ ƒ† ‘—”ƒ‰‡‘—• ‹‹–‹ƒ–‹˜‡• „› •‘Ž†‹‡”• ƒ† ‹˜‹Ž ‡’Ž‘›‡‡•Ǥ 

Self-Perception and Military Tradition

‡ƒ™Š‹Ž‡ǡ –Š‡ ‹‡”Ǧ‘”‰ƒ‹œƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ƒ–‘•’Š‡”‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡ —†‡•™‡Š” ƒ’’‡ƒ”•–‘„‡‘˜‡”•Šƒ†‘™‡†„›ƒ™‹†‡•’”‡ƒ†ˆ‡‡Ž‹‰‘ˆ—‡ƒ•‹‡••ǤŠ‹• ‹•–Š‡”‡•—Ž–‘ˆ•–”‘‰’”‡••—”‡•ˆ”‘–Š‡‹‹•–”›‹‡”Ž‹™Š‹ Šƒ”‡ ‹–‡†‡†–‘‹’Ž‡‡–ƒDz’‘Ž‹–‹ ƒŽŽ› ‘””‡ –dz ‘ŽŽ‡ –‹˜‡•‡ŽˆǦ’‡” ‡’–‹‘‘ˆ New Wine in Old Skins –Š‡ —†‡•™‡Š” •‘Ž†‹‡”• ƒ† –‘ —– ‘ˆˆ ‡ƒ”Ž› ƒŽŽ ”‡‹‹• ‡ ‡•‘ˆ ˆ‘”‡” ‡”ƒ‹Ž‹–ƒ”‹‡•Ǥ –‹• ‡”–ƒ‹Ž›‡ ‡••ƒ”›–‘‡‡’–Š‡ ‘ ‡’–‘ˆ ȋ†‡‘ ”ƒ–‹ ȌDz ‹–‹œ‡‹—‹ˆ‘”dzƒ†–Š‡’”‹ ‹’Ž‡•‘ˆDz ‡”‡ òŠ”—‰dz ȋ‹–‡”ƒŽŽ‡ƒ†‡”•Š‹’’Š‹Ž‘•‘’Š›ȌƒŽ‹˜‡ƒ†–‘ƒ†ƒ’––Š‡–‘‡™•‘ ‹ƒŽǡ ’‘Ž‹–‹ ƒŽ ƒ† ‹Ž‹–ƒ”› ‡˜‹”‘‡–•Ǥ ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ –‘ †”ƒ•–‹ ƒŽŽ› —– ’”‘ˆ‡••‹‘ƒŽ–‹‡•–‘–Š‡‹Ž‹–ƒ”›’ƒ•–‹• ‘—–‡”’”‘†— –‹˜‡ƒ†Šƒ”•–Š‡ •‡ŽˆǦ‡•–‡‡‘ˆ•‘Ž†‹‡”•ǤŠ‡’”‘ˆ‡••‹‘ƒŽ‹•ȋ ‡”–ƒ‹Ž›‘––Š‡’‘Ž‹–‹ ƒŽ ‘”‹‡–ƒ–‹‘Ȍ‘ˆ–Š‡‡Š”ƒ Š–‡Œ‘›•ƒ‰‘‘†”‡’—–ƒ–‹‘ƒ‘‰•‘Ž†‹‡”• ‘ˆƒŽŽ‹‡†ˆ‘” ‡•ǤŠ‡—†‡•™‡Š” ‘–‹‰‡–••‡”˜‡–‘‰‡–Š‡”™‹–Š–Š‡ ȋ‹ ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ‡ƒ†“—ƒ”–‡”• ‘” ‹ •–ƒ„‹Ž‹œƒ–‹‘ ‹••‹‘• Ž‹‡  Ȍǡ –Š‡›ƒ”‡‘ˆ–‡„‡™‹Ž†‡”‡†„›–Š‡‹””‡•’‡ –ˆ‘”‡Š”ƒ Š–‰‡‡”ƒŽ•Ž‹‡ ‘‡Žƒ†‘–Š‡”•Ǥ 

Š‡ ‹–‡”ƒŽ †‡„ƒ–‡• ‘ –Š‡•‡ ˜ƒŽ—‡Ǧ‘”‹‡–‡† ‹••—‡• •‡‡• –‘ Šƒ˜‡ †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡†‹–‘ƒ‹†‘ˆƒŽƒ‹•‡ǤŠ‡‹‹•–”›Šƒ••–”‘‰Ž›‹–‡”˜‡‡† ‹ •‘‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡ǡ ‡Ǥ‰Ǥ –Š‡ ˆ‘•–‡”‹‰ ‘ˆ •‘‡ ‹Ž‹–ƒ”› –”ƒ†‹–‹‘•Ǥ Š‡•‡ ‹–‡”˜‡–‹‘•ƒ›Šƒ˜‡„‡‡‹–‡†‡†ƒ•ƒ‹’—–ˆ‘”†‡„ƒ–‡ǡ„—–ƒ› •‘Ž†‹‡”•”‡‰ƒ”†‡†–Š‡ƒ•ƒ‹†‘ˆ„—”‡ƒ— ”ƒ–‹ Žƒ‰—ƒ‰‡”—Ž‡Ǥ







29

 Hardware Problems

Š‹• Ž‡ƒ†• —• „ƒ  –‘ –Š‡ •–”— –—”ƒŽ ’”‘„Ž‡ ‘ˆ „—”‡ƒ— ”ƒ › ‹ –Š‡ ‹Ž‹–ƒ”›‘”‰ƒ‹•ƒ–‹‘Ǥ‘•–‘„•‡”˜‡”•‘ˆ–Š‡—†‡•™‡Š”ƒ‰”‡‡–Šƒ–‹– Šƒ• Ž‹˜‡† –Š”‘—‰Š †‹ˆˆ‹ —Ž– –‹‡•Ǥ  ”‹–‹ ƒŽ ”‡’‘”– ƒ„‘—– –Š‡ ƒ‘‡—˜”ƒ„‹Ž‹–›‘ˆ–Š‡—†‡•™‡Š””‡ ‡–Ž› ‘ Ž—†‡†–Šƒ––Š‡”‡ƒ”‡ ‘– ‡‘—‰Š ’‡”•‘‡Ž ƒ† –Šƒ– –Š‡ –”‘‘’• ƒ”‡ ˆƒ” ˆ”‘ „‡‹‰ ˆ—ŽŽ›Ǧ ‡“—‹’’‡†Ǥƒ•ǡ•Š‹’•ǡƒ†ƒ‹” ”ƒˆ–”‡ƒ†›ˆ‘”†‡’Ž‘›‡–ƒ”‡ƒ• ƒ” ‡ ”‡•‘—” ‡Ǥ • –Š‡ ƒ”Ž‹ƒ‡–ƒ”› ‘‹••‹‘‡” ˆ‘” –Š‡ ”‡† ‘” ‡• ȋ‡Š”„‡ƒ—ˆ–”ƒ‰–‡”Ȍ”‡ƒ”‡†‹Š‹•”‡ ‡–”‡’‘”–ȋ ƒ—ƒ”›ʹͲͳͻȌǡ–Š‡ ƒ –—ƒŽƒ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„‹Ž‹–›‘ˆ–Š‡•‡ƒ”••›•–‡•‹•™‡ŽŽ„‡Ž‘™ͷͲΨǤ ‡Ž‹ ‘’–‡”• ȋ ǦͻͲǡ‹‰‡”ƒ† Ǧͷ͵Ȍ†‘‘–ˆŽ›Ǥ‘„ƒ–ƒ‹” ”ƒˆ–ȋ—”‘ˆ‹‰Š–‡”ƒ† ‘”ƒ†‘Ȍƒ”‡—ƒ„Ž‡–‘Ž‡ƒ˜‡–Š‡‰”‘—†ǤŠ‡ ‡–”ƒŽ™‡ƒ’‘•›•–‡‘ˆ –Š‡ ƒ”›ǡ –Š‡ „ƒ––Ž‡ –ƒ ‡‘’ƒ”† ʹǡ •’‡†• ‘”‡ –‹‡ ‹ –Š‡ ”‡’ƒ‹” ‰ƒ”ƒ‰‡–Šƒ‹–Š‡–”ƒ‹‹‰ƒ”‡ƒǤ ʹͲͳͲǡ–Š‡—†‡•™‡Š”‘”†‡”‡†͵ͷͲ —‹–•‘ˆ–Š‡‹ˆƒ–”›–ƒ—ƒǤ‹‡›‡ƒ”•Žƒ–‡”ǡͳ͹͸‘ˆ–Š‡Šƒ˜‡„‡‡ †‡Ž‹˜‡”‡†ǡ›‡–‘Ž›Ͷͺ‘ˆ–Š‡ƒ”‡‹ˆ— –‹‘‹‰‘”†‡”Ǥ

$7RUQDGR,'6ILJKWHUSODQHODQGVDW$O$VUDN-RUGDQDWWKH&RXQWHU'DHVKPLVVLRQ 6RXUFH*HUPDQ$LU)RUFH 

30

 Hardware Problems Š‡ƒ˜›•–”—‰‰Ž‡•™‹–Š’ƒ”–‹ —Žƒ”Ž›–‘—‰ŠŠƒ”†™ƒ”‡’”‘„Ž‡•ǣ‘‡‘ˆ –Š‡‹” •—„ƒ”‹‡• ™ƒ• ˆ—ŽŽ› ‘’‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ‹ ʹͲͳͺǡ ™Š‹ Š ‡ƒ•ǡ ƒ‘‰ ‘–Š‡”–Š‹‰•ǡ–Šƒ––Š‡•—„ƒ”‹‡ ”‡™•Žƒ ˆ—ŽŽ–”ƒ‹‹‰ǤŠ‡–Š‡ˆ‹”•– ‘ˆˆ‘—”˜‡”›‡š’‡•‹˜‡ ”‹‰ƒ–‡•ͳʹͷ™ƒ•Žƒ— Š‡†‹ʹͲͳͶǡ‹– ‘—Ž†‘– „‡†‡’Ž‘›‡†„‡ ƒ—•‡‘ˆ•‡˜‡”‡–‡ Š‹ ƒŽ‹••—‡•Ǥ ––‘‘ƒ‘–Š‡”ˆ‹˜‡›‡ƒ”• —–‹Ž‹–™ƒ• ƒ’ƒ„Ž‡‘ˆ„‡‹‰’—–‹–‘•‡”˜‹ ‡ǤŠ‡”‡ƒ”‡ǡŠ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ ’”‘„Ž‡•™‹–Š–Š‡ ”‡™–”ƒ‹‹‰ˆ‘”–Š‹•Š‹‰ŠŽ› ‘’Ž‡š˜‡••‡Ž„‡ ƒ—•‡ –Š‡ƒ˜ƒŽƒ—–Š‘”‹–‹‡•ˆƒ‹Ž‡†–‘ƒ‡’”‘˜‹•‹‘•ˆ‘”–Š‡‡ ‡••ƒ”›–”ƒ‹‹‰ ‡–”‡Ǥ –™‹ŽŽ–ƒ‡›‡ƒ”•–‘”‡’ƒ‹”–Š‹•‘‹••‹‘ǤŠ‡• ƒ†ƒŽ•—””‘—†‹‰ –Š‡ƒ˜›ǯ•–Š”‡‡Ǧƒ•–‡†–”ƒ‹‹‰•Š‹’ ‘” Š ‘ ‹•‘–•‘•‹‰‹ˆ‹ ƒ–‹ –‡”• ‘ˆ ‹Ž‹–ƒ”› ‘„ƒ– ‡ˆˆ‹ ‹‡ ›ǡ „—– ‹†‡‡† ˜‡”› •‹‰‹ˆ‹ ƒ– ƒ• ƒ ‹ ‘‹ •–ƒ–—•Ǧ•›„‘Ž‘ˆ–Š‡ƒ˜›ǤŠ‡’”‹ ‡–ƒ‰ˆ‘”‹–•‘˜‡”Šƒ—Ž”‘•‡ˆ”‘ ̀ͳͲ‹ŽŽ‹‘ȋʹͲͳͷȌ–‘̀ͳ͵ͷȋʹͲͳͻȌǤ 

Š‡Ž‹•–‘ˆŠƒ”†™ƒ”‡’”‘„Ž‡•‘ˆ–Š‡—†‡•™‡Š”‹•— ŠŽ‘‰‡”ǤŠ‡ †ƒ‰‡”‘—•Ž› ’‘‘” ‡“—‹’‡– —•‡† „› •‘Ž†‹‡”• ™ƒ• ƒŽ”‡ƒ†› ‘„˜‹‘—•

†—”‹‰–Š‡  Ǧ‹••‹‘‘ˆ—†‡•™‡Š” ‘–‹‰‡–•‹‘”–Š‡”’ƒ”–•‘ˆ ˆ‰Šƒ‹•–ƒǤ ‹ ‡ ‘”‡ –Šƒ ƒ †‡ ƒ†‡ǡ –Š‡ ƒ”ƒ‡– ’”‘„Ž‡• Šƒ˜‡ „‡‡Š‘–Ž›†‹• —••‡†ƒ‘‰‹Ž‹–ƒ”›‡š’‡”–•Ǥ ‡ ‡„‡”ʹͲͳ͵ǡ”•—Žƒ ˜‘†‡”‡›‡„‡ ƒ‡‡ˆ‡•‡‹‹•–‡”ǤŠ‡†‹•’Žƒ›‡††‡–‡”‹ƒ–‹‘ ƒ† ’—– ˆ‘”–Š ˜‡”› ˜‹‰‘”‘—• ”‡ˆ‘” ’Žƒ• ‹ ‘”†‡” –‘ ‘˜‡” ‘‡ –Š‡ —ˆ‘”–—ƒ–‡ •‹–—ƒ–‹‘ ‘ˆ –Š‡ —†‡•™‡Š”Ǥ ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ ‘‡ ‘ˆ Š‡” ˆ‹”•– †”ƒ•–‹ ƒ –‹‘•–‘•Š‘™•–”‘‰Ž‡ƒ†‡”•Š‹’™‡– ‘’Ž‡–‡Ž›™”‘‰ǤŠ‡ ‡’Šƒ–‹ ƒŽŽ›ƒ‘— ‡†–Šƒ––Š‡•–ƒ†ƒ”†”‹ˆŽ‡‘ˆ–Š‡—†‡•™‡Š” ͵͸ ™‘—Ž† Šƒ˜‡ –‘ „‡ –ƒ‡ ‘—– ‘ˆ •‡”˜‹ ‡ †—‡ –‘ ”‡’‘”–• –Šƒ– ‹– †‹† ‘– ˆ— –‹‘‹ƒˆƒ‹ŽǦ•ƒˆ‡ƒ‡”ǤŠ‹•ƒ••‡••‡––—”‡†‘—–„‡’”‡ƒ–—”‡ǡ ƒ†ǡƒˆ–‡” ‘—–Ž‡••‹–‡”ƒŽ†‡„ƒ–‡•ƒ†•‘‡ ‘—”–’”‘ ‡‡†‹‰•™‹–Š –Š‡ ƒ—ˆƒ –—”‹‰ ‘’ƒ›ǡ –Š‡  ͵͸ ™ƒ• ”‡Šƒ„‹Ž‹–ƒ–‡† –‘ ƒ ‡”–ƒ‹ ‡š–‡–Ǥ’—–‹Ž–‘†ƒ›ǡ–Š‡—†‡•™‡Š”‹•‘– ‡”–ƒ‹™Š‡–Š‡”ƒ†™Š‡ –Š‡•‘Ž†‹‡”•™‹ŽŽ‰‡–ƒ‘–Š‡”•–ƒ†ƒ”†”‹ˆŽ‡Ǥ 

31

 ‡ƒ”Ž›•‹š›‡ƒ”•ƒˆ–‡”˜‘†‡”‡›‡ǯ•‹ —„‡ ›ǡ–Š‡’‘‘” ‘†‹–‹‘‘ˆ –Š‡Šƒ”†™ƒ”‡•‹–—ƒ–‹‘Šƒ•„‡ ‘‡‡˜‡‘”‡—ˆ‘”–—ƒ–‡ǤŽŽƒ––‡’–• –‘ƒ•–‡”–Š‡†‹ˆˆ‹ —Ž–‹‡•ǡ‡Ǥ‰Ǥ™‹–Š–Š‡Š‡Ž’‘ˆ‡š’‡•‹˜‡ ‘•—Ž–‹‰ˆ‹”•ǡ „ƒ ˆ‹”‡†ǤƒŒ‘”™‡ƒ’‘ƒ†‡“—‹’‡–•›•–‡• ‘—Ž†‘–„‡”‡’ƒ‹”‡† „‡ ƒ—•‡ –Š‡ ”‡“—‹”‡† •’ƒ”‡ ’ƒ”–•™‡”‡—ƒ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„Ž‡Ǥ ‡ƒ™Š‹Ž‡ǡ Šƒ”•Š ”‹–‹ • ‘–‹—‡–‘ ƒŽŽ–Š‡—†‡•™‡Š”ƒ• ”ƒ’Š‡ƒ’ȋSchrotthaufenȌǤ Š‹‰ŠǦ”ƒ‹‰ ‡”ƒ ‘ˆˆ‹ ‡” Šƒ• „‡‡ “—‘–‡† ƒ• •ƒ›‹‰ǡ Dz‘ ƒ––‡” ™Š‡”‡ ›‘— Ž‘‘ǡ –Š‡”‡ǯ• †›•ˆ— –‹‘Ǥdz ‡˜‡”–Š‡Ž‡••ǡ ‡˜‡ ‹ˆ –Š‹• ƒ† ‘’ƒ”ƒ„Ž‡•–ƒ–‡‡–•ƒ”‡ƒ„‹––‘‘Šƒ”•Šǡ–Š‡‰‡‡”ƒŽ†‹•ƒ’’‘‹–‡– ƒ‘‰—†‡•™‡Š”•‘Ž†‹‡”•‹•‹‡•‡ǤŠ‡”‡‹•ƒ™‹†‡‰ƒ’„‡–™‡‡ –Š‡ƒ„‹–‹‘•‘ˆ–Š‡‰‘˜‡”‡––‘’”‡•‡––Š‡—†‡•™‡Š”ƒ•ƒ•–”‘‰ ƒ†”‡Ž‹ƒ„Ž‡’‹ŽŽƒ”‘ˆ ‡”ƒ›ǯ•ƒ•™‡ŽŽƒ•—”‘’‡ǯ••‡ —”‹–›ǡ‘–Š‡‘‡ •‹†‡ǡƒ†–Š‡•ƒ†”‡ƒŽ‹–›ǡ‘–Š‡‘–Š‡”Ǥ  

Negligence Syndrome

Š‡ ‹Ž‹–ƒ”› ‘”‰ƒ‹œƒ–‹‘ †‘‡• ‘– ”— •‘‘–ŠŽ›Ǥ Š‡ „‡•– ‡ˆˆ‘”–• ‘ˆ ƒ› ‘ˆˆ‹ ‡”• ƒ† ”ƒ ƒ† ˆ‹Ž‡ •‘Ž†‹‡”• ‘ –Š‡ –”‘‘’ Ž‡˜‡Žƒ”‡’ƒ”–Ž› †‡˜ƒŽ—ƒ–‡† „› •–”— –—”ƒŽ •Š‘”– ‘‹‰•Ǥ  Š‹• †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡– ‹• „‡›‘† ”‡ƒ•‘™Š‡™‡”‡Ž›‘‘‘Ǧ ƒ—•ƒŽ‡š’Žƒƒ–‹‘•Ǥ •–‡ƒ†ǡ™‡Šƒ˜‡–‘ •—”‹•‡ ƒ ‘–”ƒ†‹ –‘”› ‡‰Ž‹‰‡ ‡ •›†”‘‡ ™‹–Š †‡‡’ ”‘‘–• ‹ –Š‡ ‹‡†‹ƒ–‡ ’‘•–Ǧ‘Ž† ƒ” ›‡ƒ”•Ǥ – ‹• ƒ •›†”‘‡ „‡ ƒ—•‡ •‡˜‡”ƒŽ ‡‰ƒ–‹˜‡ˆƒ –‘”• ‘‡–‘‰‡–Š‡”ƒ†’”‘†— ‡—–—ƒŽŽ›”‡‹ˆ‘” ‹‰‡ˆˆ‡ –• ”— ‹ƒŽ–‘–Š‡’‡”ˆ‘”ƒ ‡‘ˆ–Š‡ƒ”‡†ˆ‘” ‡•Ǥ –‹• ‘–”ƒ†‹ –‘”› „‡ ƒ—•‡•‡ —”‹–›’‘Ž‹ ›ƒ†‹–•‹Ž‹–ƒ”›—• Ž‡•†‘’Žƒ›ƒ‰”‘™‹‰”‘Ž‡ ‹‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ’‘Ž‹–‹ •ǡ‡•’‡ ‹ƒŽŽ›‘–Š‡—”‘’‡ƒŽ‡˜‡ŽǤ

‘‡‹’‘”–ƒ–ƒ•’‡ –•‘ˆ–Š‡•‡‡‰ƒ–‹˜‡ˆƒ –‘”•ƒ”‡ǣ

 –Š‡†‡ˆ‡ –‹˜‡’‘Ž‹–‹ ‘Ǧ•–”ƒ–‡‰‹ †‹• ‘—”•‡ƒ„‘—––Š‡’—”’‘•‡‘ˆ –Š‡ƒ”‡†ˆ‘” ‡•Ǣ

32

  –Š‡ˆŽƒ™‡†ƒ†‘˜‡”Ǧ‘’–‹‹•–‹ •‡ŽˆǦ’‡” ‡’–‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡‹” Ž‡ƒ†‡”•Š‹’Ǣ

 –Š‡•–”‘‰’”‡••—”‡‘ ”‹–‹ ƒŽ˜‘‹ ‡•–Šƒ– ”‡ƒ–‡†ƒ•‡ŽˆǦ ‹†—Ž‰‡–•’‹”‹–‘ˆ ‘ˆ‘”‹–›ƒ‘‰–Š‡‹”Ž‡ƒ†‡”•Š‹’Ǣ

 „—”‡ƒ— ”ƒ–‹ ’‡–”‹ˆ‹ ƒ–‹‘™Š‡”‡ˆ”‡•Šƒ†‡š’‡”‹‡–ƒŽ ‹‹–‹ƒ–‹˜‡••Š‘—Ž†„‡‹†‡ƒ†Ǣ

 ‹–‡”ƒŽ‹• ‘—‹ ƒ–‹‘ƒ†Š‡ƒ˜‹‡••Ǣ

 –Š‡•–”— –—”ƒŽŽ›™‡ƒ’‘•‹–‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡‹Ž‹–ƒ”›‹ ‘’ƒ”‹•‘™‹–Š –Š‡”‡’”‡•‡–ƒ–‹˜‡•‘ˆ–Š‡ƒ”ƒ‡–‹†—•–”›†—”‹‰ ’”‘ —”‡‡–’”‘ ‡••‡•Ǣ

 ˆ‹ƒ ‹ƒŽ‹•ƒƒ‰‡‡–Ǣ

 ‹••‹‰ ‘•–Ǧ‡ˆˆ‡ –‹˜‡‡•••–”‹ –‡••Ǣ

Negligence Syndrome  –Š‡™‹†‡•’”‡ƒ†”‡•‹‰ƒ–‹‘ƒ‘‰–Š‡•‘Ž†‹‡”•‘–Š‡‹††Ž‡ ƒ†Ž‘™‡”Ž‡˜‡Ž•‘ˆ–Š‡Š‹‡”ƒ” Š›Ǥ

Š‹•‡‰Ž‹‰‡ ‡•›†”‘‡‹•‡’–ƒŽ‹˜‡„‘Ž•–‡”‡†„›–™‘ ‘–”ƒ†‹ –‹‘•ǣ –Š‡ ˆ‹”•– ƒ‹ ‘–”ƒ†‹ –‹‘ ‹˜‘Ž˜‡• ’”‘ Žƒƒ–‹‘• „› –Š‡ ’‘Ž‹–‹ ƒŽ Ž‡ƒ†‡”•Š‹’ ˆ‘” ƒ„‹–‹‘• ‰—‹†‡Ž‹‡• ‘ ‡”‹‰ –Š‡ —†‡•™‡Š” ƒ† –Š‡‹” ˆƒ‹Ž—”‡ –‘ ‹’Ž‡‡– –Š‡Ǥ Š‡ ‘•– •ƒŽ‹‡– ‡šƒ’Ž‡ ˆ‘” –Š‹• ƒ––‹–—†‡‹•–Š‡‘ˆ–‡Ǧ”‡’‡ƒ–‡†’Ž‡†‰‡‘ˆ–Š‡ Šƒ ‡ŽŽ‘”ƒ†–Š‡˜ƒ”‹‘—• †‡ˆ‡•‡‹‹•–‡”•–‘‹ ”‡ƒ•‡–Š‡‹Ž‹–ƒ”›„—†‰‡––‘–Š‡•–ƒ†ƒ”† ‘ˆʹΨ‘ˆ–Š‡ ǤŠ‹•‹•ƒ’—„Ž‹ Ǧ”‡Žƒ–‹‘•ƒ –ƒ†‘–— Š‘”‡ȋ‡˜‡ ‹ˆǡ ‹†‡‡†ǡ –Š‡ ‹Ž‹–ƒ”› „—†‰‡– ‹• ‘™ ”‹•‹‰ ƒ† ™‘—Ž† ”‡ƒ Š ƒ’’”‘š‹ƒ–‡Ž›ͳǤ͵ͷΨ‹ʹͲͳͻȌǤ‘„‡ Ž‡ƒ”ƒ„‘—––Š‹•’‘‹–ǡ–Š‡’”‘„Ž‡ ‹•‘––Š‡‘‡›ǤŠ‡ʹΨ„‡ Šƒ”‹• ‡”–ƒ‹Ž›†‹•’—–ƒ„Ž‡Ǥ ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ –‘”‡’‡ƒ––Š‡†‡–‡”‹ƒ–‹‘–‘‰‡––Š‡”‡™‹–Š‘—–”‡ƒŽŽ›‘™‹‰Š‘™–‘ ‰‡––Š‡”‡†‡•–”‘›•‘‡ǯ• ”‡†‹„‹Ž‹–›Ǥ 

Š‡ •‡ ‘† ƒ‹ ‘–”ƒ†‹ –‹‘ ‹• –Š‡ Žƒ  ‘ˆ •–”ƒ–‡‰‹  ’”‹‘”‹–‹‡• ‡š’”‡••‡† „› –Š‡ ‹ŽŽ—•‹‘ ‘ˆ ƒ Dz—”‘’‡ƒ ƒ”›dz ƒ† –Š‡ Žƒ‹ ˆ‘”

33

 Ž‡ƒ†‡”•Š‹’‹—”‘’‡ƒ•‡ —”‹–›’‘Ž‹ ›Ǥ ‘”–Š‡–‹‡„‡‹‰ǡ‡‹–Š‡”–Š‡ ‡”ƒ ‰‘˜‡”‡– ȋ‘– –‘ ‡–‹‘ –Š‡ ‡”ƒ ’—„Ž‹ Ȍ ‘” –Š‡ —†‡•™‡Š”ƒ”‡”‡ƒ†›–‘–ƒ Ž‡–Š‡•‡–ƒ”‰‡–•Ǥ 

    ᱿ Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Wilfried Freiherr von Bredow (ret.) was a professor of political science at the University of Marburg from 1972 to 2009. He was a Introduction research fellow and guest professor at Oxford, Toronto, Saskatchewan, Toulouse, Lille, and Chiayi, Taiwan. From 2011 to 2018, he was a Faculty Member of the Geneva Graduate School of Governance. Prof. von Bredow focuses on German foreign/security policy, military-society relations, transatlantic security policy and the international roles of Canada. ᱿      

















34

 &KLQD熎V1H[W*HQHUDWLRQ0LVVLOH 7KH')熄熊LQ3DFLILF&RQIOLFWDQG

*UHDW3RZHU&RPSHWLWLRQ

%\&DPHURQ)UHHPDQ

Introduction

›’‡”•‘‹ • ƒ”‡ ˆ”‡“—‡–Ž› †‡• ”‹„‡† ƒ• ƒ ‰ƒ‡ Šƒ‰‡”Ǥ ‹Ž‹–ƒ”› ‘ˆˆ‹ ‹ƒŽ•ǡ ”‡•‡ƒ” Š‡”•ǡ ƒ† •‡ —”‹–› ‡š’‡”–• Šƒ˜‡ ˆ‘” ›‡ƒ”• Š‹‰ŠŽ‹‰Š–‡† Š›’‡”•‘‹ ‰Ž‹†‡˜‡Š‹ Ž‡•ȋ •Ȍƒ†• ”ƒŒ‡–Ǧ’‘™‡”‡† ”—‹•‡‹••‹Ž‡• ƒ•–‡ Š‘Ž‘‰‹‡•™Š‹ Š ‘—Ž†ˆ—†ƒ‡–ƒŽŽ›ƒŽ–‡”–Š‡„ƒŽƒ ‡‘ˆƒ ‘ˆŽ‹ –Ǣ ƒ†˜ƒ–ƒ‰‡• ‹ •’‡‡†ǡ ƒ‡—˜‡”ƒ„‹Ž‹–›ǡ ƒ† –”ƒŒ‡ –‘”› ‘˜‡” „ƒŽŽ‹•–‹  ‹••‹Ž‡• ƒ† ”ƒŒ‡– ”—‹•‡ ‹••‹Ž‡• ƒ› ƒŽŽ‘™ Š›’‡”•‘‹ • –‘ ‡”‘†‡ †‡ˆ‡•‡•ƒ†’”‘˜‹†‡ƒ•›‡–”‹ ƒ†˜ƒ–ƒ‰‡•–‘ƒ–‹‘•™Š‹ Š‡’Ž‘› –Š‡ˆ”‘–Š‡‘•‡–‘ˆƒ‡‰ƒ‰‡‡–Ǥͳ ˆ–‡”›‡ƒ”•‘ˆ•’‡ —Žƒ–‹‘ƒ† Žƒ••‹ˆ‹‡††‡˜‡Ž‘’‡–ǡ •ƒ”‡‘Ž‘‰‡”–Š‡‘”‡–‹ ƒŽ„—–‹–Š‡ˆ‹‡Ž†‘” ‘–Š‡ —•’‘ˆ†‡’Ž‘›‡–ˆ‘”•‡˜‡”ƒŽƒ–‹‘•Ǥ•—”’”‹•‹‰Ž›ǡ‘‡‘ˆ–Š‡ ‘•–• ”—–‹‹œ‡†™‡ƒ’‘•†‹•’Žƒ›‡†ƒ––Š‡‡‘’Ž‡ǯ•‡’—„Ž‹ ‘ˆŠ‹ƒǯ• ȋȌ –‘„‡”ͳǡʹͲͳͻƒ–‹‘ƒŽƒ›’ƒ”ƒ†‡™ƒ•–Š‡‘‰ ‡‰Ǧͳ͹ȋ Ǧ ͳ͹Ȍ •›•–‡ǤŠ‘—‰Šƒ• ‡”–ƒ‹‹‰–Š‡‡šƒ ––‡ Š‹ ƒŽ ƒ’ƒ„‹Ž‹–‹‡•‘ˆ –Š‡ Ǧͳ͹ˆ”‘’—„Ž‹ •‘—” ‡•‹•‘–›‡–’‘••‹„Ž‡ǡ‹–‹•™‹–Š‘—–ƒ†‘—„–ƒ ‡š–Ǧ‰‡‡”ƒ–‹‘™‡ƒ’‘Ǥ –•†‡’Ž‘›‡–™‹ŽŽ ‡”–ƒ‹Ž›ˆƒ –‘”‹–‘ˆ—–—”‡ •–”ƒ–‡‰‹ ǡ –ƒ –‹ ƒŽǡ ƒ† ’‘Ž‹–‹ ƒŽ ƒŽ —Žƒ–‹‘• ƒ†‡ ”‡‰ƒ”†‹‰ –Š‡ •‹ƒǦ ƒ ‹ˆ‹ ǤŠ‹•ƒ”–‹ Ž‡•‡‡•–‘‡šƒ‹‡Š‘™–Š‡ Ǧͳ͹‹‰Š–„‡—•‡†‹ƒ  犇 5-HIIUH\6PLWK犒+\SHUVRQLF0LVVLOHV$UH8QVWRSSDEOH$QG7KH\犑UH6WDUWLQJD 1HZ*OREDO$UPV5DFH犓7KH1HZ

35

 ƒ ‹ˆ‹  ‘ˆŽ‹ – ƒ† –Š‡ Žƒ”‰‡” ”‘Ž‡ ‹– ’Žƒ›• ‹ Š‹ƒǯ• ”‡‰‹‘ƒŽ ‹••‹Ž‡ •–”ƒ–‡‰› ƒ† ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ’‘•‹–‹‘ ‹ ƒ ‡™ ‡”ƒ ‘ˆ ‰”‡ƒ– ’‘™‡” ‘’‡–‹–‹‘Ǥ

Š‘—‰ŠŠ›’‡”•‘‹ ™‡ƒ’‘•Šƒ˜‡‘–›‡–‹–‡‰”ƒ–‡†–Š‡•‡Ž˜‡•ƒ• ‘”‡ ‘’‘‡–‘ˆƒ›ƒ–‹‘ǯ•‹••‹Ž‡•–”ƒ–‡‰›ǡ™‹–Šˆ—”–Š‡”–‡ Š‘Ž‘‰‹ ƒŽ ƒ†˜ƒ ‡‡–• ƒ† ‹ ”‡ƒ•‡† Š›’‡”•‘‹  ™‡ƒ’‘• ’”‘†— –‹‘ ‘ –Š‡ Š‘”‹œ‘ǡ–Šƒ–•‡‡•Ž‹‡Ž›–‘ Šƒ‰‡ǤŠ‹ƒǡ—••‹ƒǡƒ†–Š‡‹–‡†–ƒ–‡• ƒ”‡ ‘’‡–‹‰ –‘ ”ƒ’‹†Ž› „—‹Ž† ƒ† †‡’Ž‘› •Ǥ Š‹ƒǯ•  –‘„‡”ͳ•– ‡šŠ‹„‹–‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡ Ǧͳ͹ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™‡†•‹‰‹ˆ‹ ƒ–—••‹ƒƒ‘— ‡‡–•–Š‡ ›‡ƒ”’”‹‘”ǣŽƒ†‹‹”—–‹ Žƒ‹‡†–‘Šƒ˜‡„‡‰—•‡”‹ƒŽ’”‘†— –‹‘‘ˆ —••‹ƒǯ• — Ž‡ƒ”Ǧ ƒ’ƒ„Ž‡ ˜ƒ‰ƒ”†  ‹ ƒ” Š ʹͲͳͺǡ ƒ†˜‡”–‹•‹‰ ƒ ’—”’‘”–‡†Ž‡ƒ†‹”‡•‡ƒ” Šƒ††‡˜‡Ž‘’‡–™Š‹ Š‹ ”‡ƒ•‡†’”‡••—”‡ ‘Š‹‡•‡ƒ†‡”‹ ƒ ’”‘‰”ƒ•Ǥʹ Š‘—‰Š–Š‡‡’ƒ”–‡– ‘ˆ‡ˆ‡•‡ȋȌ‡šƒ‹‡†ƒ†„‡‰ƒ–‡•–‹‰ ‘˜‡–‹‘ƒŽ •ƒ•ƒ ƒ˜‡—‡ ˆ‘” ‹–• ”‘’– Ž‘„ƒŽ –”‹‡ ‹••‹‘ ƒ• ‡ƒ”Ž› ƒ• ʹͲͲ͵ǡ ”‡ ‡– ƒ†˜ƒ ‡• ƒ†‡ „› —••‹ƒ ƒ† Š‹ƒ •‡‡‹‰Ž› ‹†‹ ƒ–‡ –Šƒ– –Š‡  †‡ˆ‡•‡ ‘—‹–› Žƒ‰• „‡Š‹† ‹–• ‘’‡–‹–‘”•Ȅ‹ –‹‡Ž‹‡ ‹ˆ ‘– ‹ –‡ Š‘Ž‘‰›Ǥ͵ Š‹•†‡Žƒ›Šƒ•Ž‡†–‘‹ ”‡ƒ•‹‰ ‘ ‡”‹–Š‡‹Ž‹–ƒ”› ƒ†’‘Ž‹ ›ƒ‹‰ ‹” Ž‡•ƒ†’”‘’–‡†ƒ‡™’—•Šˆ‘”Š›’‡”•‘‹  ™‡ƒ’‘•“—ƒ–‹ˆ‹‡†„›ʹǤ͸„‹ŽŽ‹‘ƒ†ƒŽŽ‘ ƒ–‡†ˆ‘”Š›’‡”•‘‹  



 犈 犒5XVVLD%HJLQV6HULDO3URGXFWLRQRI1HZ&XWWLQJ(GJH*OLGH9HKLFOH犓7$66 0DUFK犇犈犆犇犎DFFHVVHG2FWREHU犈犈犈犆犇犏KWWSVWDVVFRPGHIHQVH犏犏犈犈犏犍 犒3XWLQ$QQRXQFHV5XVVLD3RVVHVVHV+\SHUVRQLF:HDSRQV犓7$660DUFK犇犈犆犇犎 DFFHVVHG2FWREHU犈犈犈犆犇犏KWWSVWDVVFRPGHIHQVH犏犏犈犈犇犊 犉 $P\):RROI犒&RQYHQWLRQDO3URPSW*OREDO6WULNHDQG/RQJ5DQJH%DOOLVWLF 0LVVLOHV%DFNJURXQGDQG,VVXHV犓 &RQJUHVVLRQDO5HVHDUFK6HUYLFH$XJXVW犇犊 犈犆犇犏 SS犈犇犆

36

 ’”‘–‘–›’‹‰‹–Š‡ ʹͲʹͲ„—†‰‡–ǤͶ Š‡”›’Žƒ•–‘ˆ‹‡Ž†‹–• ˆ‹”•– „ƒ––‡”›‹ʹͲʹ͵Ǥͷ

Š‹ƒǡ–Š‡‡‘’Ž‡ǯ•‹„‡”ƒ–‹‘”›ȋȌŠƒ•‹”‡ ‡–›‡ƒ”•‰”‡ƒ–Ž› ‡š’ƒ†‡† ‹–• ‹Ž‹–ƒ”› ƒ’ƒ ‹–› „› †‡˜‡Ž‘’‹‰ ‹–• „ƒŽŽ‹•–‹  ‹••‹Ž‡ ƒ† ”—‹•‡‹••‹Ž‡ ƒ’ƒ„‹Ž‹–‹‡•Ǥ•ƒ’ƒ”–‘ˆ•™‡‡’‹‰ʹͲͳͷ‹Ž‹–ƒ”›”‡ˆ‘”•ǡ –Š‡ˆ‘”‡†–Š‡‘ ‡– ‘” ‡ȋ Ȍǡƒˆ—ŽŽ•‡”˜‹ ‡‘Ǧ’ƒ”™‹–Š –Š‡ƒ”›ƒ†ƒ˜›ǤŠ‡ƒ••‘ˆ–Š‡ƒ–‡”™‡ƒ’‘•–Š‡ Šƒ•ˆ‹‡Ž†‡† ƒ”‡ ’”‹ƒ”‹Ž› ‹–‡†‡† –‘ –Š”‡ƒ–‡ ƒ‹™ƒ ƒ†  ƒ ‹ˆ‹  ƒ••‡–•Ȅ ‘•–‡•‹„Ž›–‘†‡–‡”–Š‡‹–‡†–ƒ–‡•ˆ”‘‡–‡”‹‰‹–‘ ‘ˆŽ‹ –‘˜‡”–Š‡ ‹•Žƒ†ǤŠ‡ ‹•–Š‡„ƒ „‘‡‘ˆŠ‹ƒǯ•Dzƒ –‹˜‡†‡ˆ‡•‡dz•–”ƒ–‡‰› ƒ† ‹•Žƒ† Šƒ‹ ‘–”‘ŽǤ ͸  ‹–Š –Š‡ ‹ ”‡ƒ•‹‰ ƒ„‹Ž‹–› ‘ˆ  „ƒŽŽ‹•–‹  ‹••‹Ž‡ †‡ˆ‡•‡ ȋȌ •›•–‡•ǡ Š‹‡•‡ •–”ƒ–‡‰‹•–• ƒ› ’‡” ‡‹˜‡ ƒ ƒ‰‰”‡••‹˜‡Š›’‡”•‘‹ ‹••‹Ž‡’”‘‰”ƒƒ•ƒ•–”‘‰ƒ˜‡—‡–‘”‡‡™ƒ† ‡š’ƒ† –Š‡   –Š”‡ƒ–Ǥ Š‡ ‹’ƒ – ‘ˆ –Š‡  Ǧͳ͹ ™‹ŽŽ †‡’‡† ‘ ™Š‡–Š‡”‹– ƒ–”—Ž›‘—–Ǧƒ‡—˜‡”–Š‡’‘‹–†‡ˆ‡•‡•›•–‡•†‡•‹‰‡† –‘ ‘—–‡”‡š‹•–‹‰ –Š‡ƒ–‡”„ƒŽŽ‹•–‹ ‹••‹Ž‡•ȋ•ȌǤ ˆ–Š‡ Ǧͳ͹ ‹• ‹†‡‡† ƒ’ƒ„Ž‡ ‘ˆ ‡˜ƒ†‹‰ –Š‡•‡ ‹–‡” ‡’–‘”•ǡ ‹– •–ƒ†• –‘ ’Žƒ› ƒ •‹‰‹ˆ‹ ƒ–”‘Ž‡‹–Š‡ƒ ‹ˆ‹ ƒ•ƒ‡™ ‘˜‡–‹‘ƒŽˆ‹”•–•–”‹‡‘’–‹‘ ™Š‹ Š ‰”ƒ–• Š‹ƒ Ž‡˜‡”ƒ‰‡ ™‹–Š‘—– •–”ƒ›‹‰ ˆ”‘ –Š‡ ‘ ˆ‹”•– —•‡ — Ž‡ƒ”™‡ƒ’‘•’‘Ž‹ ›Ǥ‡”‹ ƒ‹Ž‹–ƒ”›‘ˆˆ‹ ‡”•ƒ††‡ˆ‡•‡‘ˆˆ‹ ‹ƒŽ•  犊 犒8QLWHG6WDWH'HSDUWPHQWRI'HIHQVH)LVFDO

37

 Šƒ˜‡•–ƒ–‡†–Šƒ–ˆ‘” ‡•ƒ”‡‘– —””‡–Ž›’”‡’ƒ”‡†–‘ ‘„ƒ–ƒ  ƒ––ƒ ǡƒ‹‰–Š‡Ž‘‘‹‰–Š”‡ƒ–‘ˆ‘‡‘”‡’‘™‡”ˆ—ŽǤ

Š‘—‰Š–Š‹•ƒ”–‹ Ž‡’”‹ƒ”‹Ž›ˆ‘ —•‡•‘–Š‡‘™–‡ Š‹ ƒŽ ƒ’ƒ„‹Ž‹–‹‡• ƒ† ‘„ƒ– ƒ’’Ž‹ ƒ–‹‘• ‘ˆ –Š‡  Ǧͳ͹ǡ ‹– ‹• ‡••‡–‹ƒŽ –‘ Š‹‰ŠŽ‹‰Š– –Šƒ– †‡’Ž‘›‹‰ƒ†’—„Ž‹ Ž›†‹•’Žƒ›‹‰–Š‡ Ǧͳ͹‹•‹–‡†‡†–‘•‡”˜‡ ƒ• ƒ Š‹‡•‡ ‘—‹•– ƒ”–› ȋȌ ’”‘’ƒ‰ƒ†ƒ –‘‘Ž ƒ† •‹‰ ‘ˆ  •–”‡‰–ŠǤ ˜‡ ‹ˆ –Š‡  Ǧͳ͹ †‹† ‘– ‡ƒ•—”‡ —’ –‘ ‹–• ’—”’‘”–‡† ƒ’ƒ„‹Ž‹–‹‡•ǡ ‹–• ‡š‹•–‡ ‡ •‡”˜‡• –‘ ’”‘‘–‡ –Š‡  ƒ””ƒ–‹˜‡ƒ„‘—– Š‹ƒǯ•Dz”‡Œ—˜‡ƒ–‹‘dzƒ†‹–•’‘•‹–‹‘ƒ•ƒ™‘”Ž†Ž‡ƒ†‡”Ǥ –‹• ‘ ‡‹˜ƒ„Ž‡ –Š‡ Ǧͳ͹ƒ›„‡ƒ’‘Ž‹–‹ ƒŽ‹˜‡•–‡–ƒŽ‘•–ƒ•— Šƒ•ƒ•–”ƒ–‡‰‹ ‘” –ƒ –‹ ƒŽ ‘‡Ǥ Š‘—‰Š •‡”‹‘—• ‹Ž‹–ƒ”› ‘ˆŽ‹ – ‹ –Š‡ ƒ ‹ˆ‹  ”‡ƒ‹• —Ž‹‡Ž›ǡ–Š‡ Ǧͳ͹ƒ› ‘–”‹„—–‡–‘Š‹ƒǯ•‹ ”‡ƒ•‹‰Ž›„‘Ž†‹Ž‹–ƒ”› ‘’‡”ƒ–‹‘•ƒ†’‘•–—”‹‰‹–Š‡•‹ƒǦƒ ‹ˆ‹ ‰‹˜‡ƒ‹ ”‡ƒ•‡††‡‰”‡‡‘ˆ ‘ˆ‹†‡ ‡‹–Š”‡ƒ–ƒ†’”‡•–‹‰‡Ǥ

Advantages of Hypersonic Glide Vehicles

›’‡”•‘‹  ‰Ž‹†‡ ˜‡Š‹ Ž‡• ’‘••‡•• ƒ —„‡” ‘ˆ Ž‡ƒ” ƒ†˜ƒ–ƒ‰‡• ‘˜‡” –”ƒ†‹–‹‘ƒŽ„ƒŽŽ‹•–‹ ‹••‹Ž‡•ǡ‹ Ž—†‹‰–Š‘•‡™‹–Šƒ‡—˜‡”ƒ„Ž‡”‡‡–”› ˜‡Š‹ Ž‡ ȋƒȌƒ†—Ž–‹’Ž‡‹†‡’‡†‡–Ž›–ƒ”‰‡–ƒ„Ž‡ ”‡‡–”›˜‡Š‹ Ž‡ ȋ Ȍ ƒ’ƒ„‹Ž‹–‹‡•ǤŠ‡–‡”DzŠ›’‡”•‘‹ ™‡ƒ’‘•dz‰‹˜‡• ”‡†‡ ‡–‘ ‘‘ ‹• ‘ ‡’–‹‘ –Šƒ– –Š‡•‡ ™‡ƒ’‘• ƒ”‡ ˆƒ•–‡” –Šƒ „ƒŽŽ‹•–‹  ‹••‹Ž‡•Ǥ Š‹• ‹• ‘– –Š‡ ƒ•‡Ǥ –‡” ‘–‹‡–ƒŽ „ƒŽŽ‹•–‹  ‹••‹Ž‡ ȋ Ȍ ”‡‡–”›˜‡Š‹ Ž‡•ȋ•Ȍ‡–‡”–Š‡ƒ–‘•’Š‡”‡ƒ–Š‹‰ŠŠ›’‡”•‘‹ •’‡‡†• „‡–™‡‡ ƒ Š ͳ͹Ǥ͸ ƒ† ƒ Š ʹ͵Ǥͷǡ ˜ƒŽ—‡• ‘’ƒ”ƒ„Ž‡ ™‹–Š ‘Ž› –Š‡ ˆƒ•–‡•– • Ž‹‡ –Š‡ Ǧʹ „—‹Ž– „› Š‡ ‡ˆ‡•‡ †˜ƒ ‡† ‡•‡ƒ” Š ”‘Œ‡ –•‰‡ ›ȋȌǡ™Š‹ Š–”ƒ˜‡Ž•ƒ”‘—†ƒ ŠʹͲǤ͹ ‘‡ •ǡ

 犍 犒%DOOLVWLFDQG&UXLVH0LVVLOH7KUHDW犓'HIHQVH,QWHOOLJHQFH%DOOLVWLF0LVVLOH $QDO\VLV&RPPLWWHH犈犆犇犍S犎 KWWSVZZZQDVLFDIPLO/LQN&OLFNDVS["ILOHWLFNHW )犈9/F.6P&7(犉G SRUWDOLG

38

 ‹ Ž—†‹‰ Ǧͳ͹ƒ†–Š‡”›ǯ•†˜ƒ ‡† ›’‡”•‘‹ ‡ƒ’‘ȋ Ȍ ƒ”‡ •‹‰‹ˆ‹ ƒ–Ž› •Ž‘™‡” –Šƒ „ƒŽŽ‹•–‹  •ǡ ƒ– ƒ Š ͷǦͳͲ ƒ† ƒ Š ͺ ”‡•’‡ –‹˜‡Ž›Ǥ ͺ  Š‡ ”‡ƒŽ •–”‡‰–Š• ‘ˆ • Ž‹‡ ‹ –”ƒŒ‡ –‘”› ƒ† ƒ‡—˜‡”ƒ„‹Ž‹–›Ǥ

•ƒ”‡Žƒ— Š‡†‘„ƒŽŽ‹•–‹ ‹••‹Ž‡„‘‘•–‡”•ƒ†•‡’ƒ”ƒ–‡ƒˆ–‡”–Š‡ ”‘ ‡–ǯ•„—”‹• ‘’Ž‡–‡„—–ǡ—Ž‹‡„ƒŽŽ‹•–‹ ”‡Ǧ‡–”›˜‡Š‹ Ž‡•ǡ†‘‘– ‘–‹—‡‹–‘•’ƒ ‡‘ƒ’”‡†‹ –ƒ„Ž‡–”ƒŒ‡ –‘”›Ǥ •–‡ƒ†ǡ‰Ž‹†‡”•”‡ƒ‹ ™‹–Š‹‘”“—‹ Ž›”‡‡–‡”–Š‡ƒ–‘•’Š‡”‡ǤŠ‡›—•‡ˆ‹•–‘•–‡‡”ƒ†‰Ž‹†‡ —’‘™‡”‡† ƒ– ƒŽ–‹–—†‡• „‡–™‡‡ ͶͲ ƒ† ͳͲͲ  —–‹Ž ”‡ƒ Š‹‰ –Š‡‹” ‹–‡†‡†–ƒ”‰‡–Ǥƒ†˜ƒ ‡†  ƒ–Š‡‘”‡–‹ ƒŽŽ›–”ƒ˜‡Žƒ•ˆƒ”ƒ•ƒ •‹’Ž›„›—•‹‰ƒ‡”‘†›ƒ‹ ˆ‘” ‡•–‘ ‘–‹—‘—•Ž›‰‡‡”ƒ–‡Ž‹ˆ–Ǥͻ ‡ ƒ—•‡–Š‡‰Ž‹†‡˜‡Š‹ Ž‡•–”ƒ˜‡Ž™‹–Š‹–Š‡ƒ–‘•’Š‡”‡ƒ†‡ ‡••ƒ”‹Ž› ’‘••‡•• ‘–”‘Ž•—”ˆƒ ‡•ǡ–Š‡› ƒƒŽ•‘ƒ‡—˜‡”ƒ–ƒ›’‘‹–‹–Š‡‹” ˆŽ‹‰Š– ƒˆ–‡” ‘’Ž‡–‹‰ –Š‡ ‹‹–‹ƒŽ „ƒŽŽ‹•–‹  •–ƒ‰‡ǡ ƒ‹‰ –Š‡ •‹‰‹ˆ‹ ƒ–Ž› ‘”‡ †›ƒ‹  –Šƒ ‘˜‡–‹‘ƒŽ „ƒŽŽ‹•–‹  ‹••‹Ž‡•Ǥ ͳͲ  Advantages of Hypersonic Glide Vehicles ƒ†˜ƒ ‡†  ‘—Ž†•™‹– Š–ƒ”‰‡–•‹†ǦˆŽ‹‰Š–‘”ˆƒŽ•‡Ž›‹†‹ ƒ–‡ƒ–ƒ”‰‡– „‡ˆ‘”‡ Šƒ‰‹‰ ‘—”•‡ǡ ƒ ƒ’ƒ„‹Ž‹–› –‡”‡† –ƒ”‰‡– ‘„ˆ—• ƒ–‹‘Ǥ Š‡ ‰Ž‹†‡” ‘—Ž†ƒŽ•‘•–‡‡”ƒ”‘—†‘”‹•Ž‡ƒ†‹–‡” ‡’–‘”•ǡƒƒŒ‘”ˆ‘ —•‘ˆ Š›’‡”•‘‹ ™‡ƒ’‘•†‹• —••‹‘•Ǥ 



 犇犏3HWHU(UEODQG犒)DOFRQ+79犈犓'HIHQVH$GYDQFHG5HVHDUFK3URMHFWV$JHQF\ '$53$ DFFHVVHG2FWREHU犈犈犈犆犇犏KWWSVZZZGDUSDPLOSURJUDPIDOFRQ KWY犈 犎 3HFN犒

39

 ‹ ‡„ƒŽŽ‹•–‹ ‹••‹Ž‡•ƒ”‡’”‡†‹ –ƒ„Ž›‘˜‡”–Š‡ƒ”–Šǯ••—”ˆƒ ‡ǡ”‡ƒ Š‹‰ ƒ’‘‰‡‡•™‡ŽŽƒ„‘˜‡ͳǡͲͲͲƒ–Ž‘‰‡””ƒ‰‡•ǡ‡˜‡ƒ†˜ƒ ‡†ƒƒ†  •›•–‡•ƒ”‡’‘–‡–‹ƒŽŽ›•—• ‡’–‹„Ž‡–‘‡š‘Ǧƒ–‘•’Š‡”‹ ‹† ‘—”•‡ ‹–‡” ‡’–‹‘Ǥ ͳͳ  ˜‡ •Š‘”–‡”Ǧ”ƒ‰‡† „ƒŽŽ‹•–‹  ‹••‹Ž‡• ȋ•Ȍ ƒ† ‡†‹—Ǧ”ƒ‰‡ „ƒŽŽ‹•–‹  ‹••‹Ž‡• ȋ•Ȍ ȋ™Š‹ Š •–”‹‡ –ƒ”‰‡–• —’ –‘ ͵ͲͲͲ  ˆ”‘ –Š‡‹” Žƒ— Š •‹–‡Ȍ ”‡ƒ Š ƒ’‘‰‡‡• •‡˜‡”ƒŽ Š—†”‡† ‹Ž‘‡–‡”•ƒ„‘˜‡–Š‡ͳͲͲž”žŽ‹‡†‡ƒ” ƒ–‹‰•’ƒ ‡Ǥͳʹ Š‘—‰Š „ƒŽŽ‹•–‹  ‹••‹Ž‡• –›’‹ ƒŽŽ› ‡’Ž‘› †‡ ‘›• ƒ† ‘—–‡”‡ƒ•—”‡• –‘ ‘’Ž‹ ƒ–‡ ‹† ‘—”•‡ ‹–‡” ‡’–‹‘ǡ • ’‘••‡•• –Š‡ ‹‡†‹ƒ–‡ ƒ†˜ƒ–ƒ‰‡‘ˆ‘–„‡‹‰•—• ‡’–‹„Ž‡–‘‡š‘Ǧƒ–‘•’Š‡”‹ „ƒŽŽ‹•–‹ ‹••‹Ž‡ †‡ˆ‡•‡•›•–‡•ƒ–ƒŽŽǤͳ͵ ‹–Š‘—–ƒ‹† ‘—”•‡‹–‡” ‡’–‹‘‘’–‹‘ǡ‘Ž› „‘‘•–Ǧ’Šƒ•‡ ƒ† –‡”‹ƒŽ ‹–‡” ‡’–‹‘ ƒ”‡ ˆ‡ƒ•‹„Ž‡Ǥ ‡– „‘‘•– ’Šƒ•‡ ‹–‡” ‡’–‹‘‹•†‹ˆˆ‹ —Ž–™‹–Š‘—– ƒ’ƒ„Ž‡‹••‹Ž‡•ƒ†•‡•‘”•Ž‘ ƒ–‡†‹ Ž‘•‡ ’”‘š‹‹–› ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‹••‹Ž‡ Žƒ— Š •‹–‡ ƒ† ƒ Šƒ‹ ‘ˆ ‘ƒ† ’”‡’ƒ”‡†ˆ‘”‹‡†‹ƒ–‡ƒ –‹‘ǤͳͶ  Š‹• ‹• ˆ—”–Š‡” ‘’Ž‹ ƒ–‡† ‹ˆ –Š‡ ‹••‹Ž‡•ƒ”‡”‘ƒ†Ǧ‘„‹Ž‡ƒ†•‘‡™Šƒ–—’”‡†‹ –ƒ„Ž‡ǡ‘”‹ˆ–Š‡‹••‹Ž‡• ƒ”‡Žƒ— Š‡††‡‡’‹Žƒ†Ǥ‡”‹ƒŽ‹••‹Ž‡†‡ˆ‡•‡ǡ‘–Š‡‘–Š‡”Šƒ†ǡ ƒ‘– ’”‘–‡ – ƒ Žƒ”‰‡ ƒ”‡ƒ ˆ”‘ ƒ––ƒ ǡ ‘Ž› ƒ •ƒŽŽ ’”‡Ǧ†‡–‡”‹‡† ’”‹‘”‹–›ƒ”‡ƒǤ˜‡–Š‡ǡƒ›ˆ‡ƒ”–Šƒ––Š‡ƒ‡—˜‡”ƒ„‹Ž‹–›‘ˆ •™‹ŽŽ ƒŽŽ‘™–Š‡–‘‡˜ƒ†‡‘†‡”–‡”‹ƒŽ•›•–‡•Ǥ

 犇犇 5RE%URZQ犒%DOOLVWLF0LVVLOH'HIHQVH&KDOOHQJHV犓0LVVLOH'HIHQVH$JHQF\ 1RYHPEHU犈犆犈犆犆犈 犇犈 %URZQ犒%DOOLVWLF0LVVLOH'HIHQVH&KDOOHQJHV犓 犇犉 1DWLRQDO5HVHDUFK&RXQFLO 86 HG0DNLQJ6HQVHRI%DOOLVWLF0LVVLOH 'HIHQVH$Q$VVHVVPHQWRI&RQFHSWVDQG6\VWHPVIRU86%RRVW3KDVH0LVVLOH 'HIHQVHLQ&RPSDULVRQWR2WKHU$OWHUQDWLYHV :DVKLQJWRQ'&1DWLRQDO $FDGHPLHV3UHVV犈犆犇犈 S犇犆犈 犇犊 1DWLRQDO5HVHDUFK&RXQFLO 86 0DNLQJ6HQVHRI%DOOLVWLF0LVVLOH'HIHQVHS 犉犆

40

 Š‡•—’’”‡••‡†–”ƒŒ‡ –‘”›ƒ†——•—ƒŽ†‡•‹‰‘ˆ •’”‘˜‹†‡ˆ—”–Š‡” ƒ†˜ƒ–ƒ‰‡•‘˜‡”„ƒŽŽ‹•–‹ ‹••‹Ž‡•‹–”ƒ ‹‰Ǥ›ƒ–‹‘™Š‹ Š”‡Ž‹‡•‘ ‰”‘—†Ǧ„ƒ•‡†Ž‹‡Ǧ‘ˆǦ•‹‰Š–•‡•‘”•–‘–”ƒ ‹ ‘‹‰‹••‹Ž‡•™‹ŽŽ‘–„‡ ƒ„Ž‡–‘†‡–‡ –‘”–”ƒ –Š‡ —–‹Ž–Š‡ˆ‹ƒŽ•–ƒ‰‡•‘ˆ‹–•†‡• ‡–†—‡–‘ –Š‡ —”˜ƒ–—”‡‘ˆ–Š‡ƒ”–ŠǤͳͷ ‡••‡ ‡ǡ„‡ ƒ—•‡„ƒŽŽ‹•–‹ ‹••‹Ž‡•–”ƒ˜‡Ž •‘ˆƒ”‘˜‡”–Š‡•—”ˆƒ ‡‘ˆ–Š‡’Žƒ‡–ǡ”ƒ†ƒ”‹•–ƒŽŽƒ–‹‘• ƒ†‹”‡ –Ž›Dz•‡‡dz „ƒŽŽ‹•–‹ •— Š•‘‘‡”–Šƒ–Š‡› ƒ •ǡ™Š‹ Š”‡ƒ‹ Ž‘•‡”–‘ –Š‡ ‰”‘—†Ǥͳ͸   ‘”’‘”ƒ–‹‘ ”‡’‘”– †‡–‡”‹‡† –Šƒ– –Š‡ ”ƒ†ƒ” †‡–‡ –‹‘–‹‡ˆ‘”ƒ͵ǡͲͲͲ„ƒŽŽ‹•–‹ ™‘—Ž†„‡ŠƒŽ˜‡†™‹–Šƒ Ȅ ˆ”‘ ƒ’’”‘š‹ƒ–‡Ž› –™‡Ž˜‡ ‹—–‡• –‘ •‹šǤ ͳ͹  ˜‡ ƒ–‹‘• ™‹–Š ‰‡‘•–ƒ–‹‘ƒ”›•ƒ–‡ŽŽ‹–‡–”ƒ ‹‰ƒ›‘–„‡ƒ„Ž‡–‘ƒ —”ƒ–‡Ž›–”ƒ  • ™Š‹ Šƒ”‡ǡDzͳͲ–‘ʹͲ–‹‡•†‹‡”–Šƒ™Šƒ––Š‡ǤǤ‘”ƒŽŽ›–”ƒ •„› •ƒ–‡ŽŽ‹–‡•Ǥdzͳͺ ‡–‡ –‹‰ ƒ† ‘„ƒ––‹‰ • ”‡“—‹”‡• •‹‰‹ˆ‹ ƒ– ‡™ †‡ˆ‡•‡ ‹˜‡•–‡–• ™Š‹ Š ‘—Ž† ‹ –—” –”‹‰‰‡” ˆ—”–Š‡”  †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡–‹”‹˜ƒŽƒ–‹‘•‹ƒ†ƒ‰‡”‘—• › Ž‡Ǥš’‡”–•Šƒ˜‡™‹†‡Ž› ™ƒ”‡† ‘ˆ –Š‡ ’‘–‡–‹ƒŽŽ› †‡•–ƒ„‹Ž‹œ‹‰ ‡ˆˆ‡ –• ‘ˆ  ’”‘Ž‹ˆ‡”ƒ–‹‘ǣ ƒ”•Ǧ”ƒ ‹‰ǡ’‘–‡–‹ƒŽ— Ž‡ƒ”‡• ƒŽƒ–‹‘ǡ‹’Ž‡‡–ƒ–‹‘‘ˆŽƒ— ŠǦ‘Ǧ ™ƒ”‹‰•›•–‡•ǡƒ†‘”‡Ǥͳͻ

 犇犋 6SHLHUHWDO+\SHUVRQLF0LVVLOH1RQSUROLIHUDWLRQSS犇犆犇犇 犇犌 6SHLHUHWDO+\SHUVRQLF0LVVLOH1RQSUROLIHUDWLRQSS犇犆犇犇 犇犍 6SHLHUHWDO+\SHUVRQLF0LVVLOH1RQSUROLIHUDWLRQS犇犇 犇犎 .HOOH\6D\OHU犒+\SHUVRQLF:HDSRQV%DFNJURXQGDQG,VVXHVIRU&RQJUHVV犓 &RQJUHVVLRQDO5HVHDUFK6HUYLFH6HSWHPEHU犇犍犈犆犇犏S犉 KWWSVIDVRUJVJSFUVZHDSRQV5犊犋犎犇犇SGI 犇犏 犒+\SHUVRQLF:HDSRQV$&KDOOHQJHDQG2SSRUWXQLW\IRU6WUDWHJLF$UPV &RQWURO犓1HZ

41



Capabilities of the DF-17

Capabilities of the DF-17 Š‡ Ǧͳ͹‹•ƒ™‡ƒ’‘‹œ‡†˜‡”•‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡ Ǧ Š›’‡”•‘‹ ‰Ž‹†‡˜‡Š‹ Ž‡ǡ

ˆ‘”‡”Ž› ‘™ ƒ• –Š‡ ǦͳͶ ‹ –Š‡ ‹–‡† –ƒ–‡•Ǥ Š‡ Š‹‡•‡ ‰‘˜‡”‡– „‡‰ƒ†‡˜‡Ž‘’‹‰ –Š‡  Ǧ  ‹ʹͲͲͻ ƒ†”‡’‘”–‡†Ž› ˆ‹”•– –‡•–‡†–Š‡ ‹ ƒ—ƒ”›ʹͲͳͶǤʹͲ ›ʹͲͳ͸ǡ–Š‡ Ǧ Šƒ†„‡‡–‡•–‡† ƒ–Ž‡ƒ•–•‡˜‡–‹‡•ǡ•‹š‘ˆ–Š‡•‡–‹‡••— ‡••ˆ—ŽŽ›Ǥʹͳ  ‘”†‹‰–‘ ‹–‡ŽŽ‹‰‡ ‡ ‘ˆˆ‹ ‹ƒŽ•ǡ  Ǧ  †‡‘•–”ƒ–‡† ƒ Š‹‰Š †‡‰”‡‡ ‘ˆ ƒ‡—˜‡”ƒ„‹Ž‹–› ‹ –Š‡•‡ –‡•–•Ǥ ʹʹ  Š‘—‰Š –Š‡”‡ ™ƒ• •‹‰‹ˆ‹ ƒ– •’‡ —Žƒ–‹‘ƒ„‘—––Š‡™‡ƒ’‘‹œƒ–‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡ ǡ–Š‡•‡ˆ‡ƒ”•™‡”‡‘– •—„•–ƒ–‹ƒ–‡†—–‹Ž‡ ‡„‡”ʹͲͳ͹™Š‡The Diplomat”‡’‘”–‡†‘–™‘

 犈犆 +HQUL.HQKPDQQ犒')犇犍ௗ&HTXHO犑RQVDLWGHFHWWHDUPHK\SHUVRQLTXH FKLQRLVH犓(DVW3HQGXOXP EORJ 2FWREHU犍犈犆犇犏 KWWSZZZHDVWSHQGXOXPFRPGI犇犍FHTXHORQVDLWGHFHWWHDUPH K\SHUVRQLTXHFKLQRLVH5LFKDUG')LVKHU-U犒862IILFLDOV&RQILUP6L[WK&KLQHVH +\SHUVRQLF0DQRHXYULQJ6WULNH9HKLFOH7HVW犓,+6-DQH犑V犉犌犆1RYHPEHU犈犏 犈犆犇犋 KWWSVZHEDUFKLYHRUJZHE犈犆犇犋犇犇犈犏犈犉犉犍犈犇KWWSVZZZMDQHVFRPDUWLFOH犋犌 犈犎犈XVRIILFLDOVFRQILUPVL[WKFKLQHVHK\SHUVRQLFPDQRHXYULQJVWULNHYHKLFOH WHVW 犈犇 )UDQ]6WHIDQ*DG\犒&KLQD7HVWV1HZ:HDSRQ&DSDEOHRI%UHDFKLQJ86 0LVVLOH'HIHQVH6\VWHPV犓7KH'LSORPDW$SULO犈犎犈犆犇犌DFFHVVHG2FWREHU犈犈 犈犆犇犏KWWSVWKHGLSORPDWFRP犈犆犇犌犆犊FKLQDWHVWVQHZZHDSRQFDSDEOHRI EUHDFKLQJXVPLVVLOHGHIHQVHV\VWHPV-DPHV0$FWRQ犒&KLQD犑V$GYDQFHG :HDSRQV犓&DUQHJLH(QGRZPHQWIRU,QWHUQDWLRQDO3HDFH)HEUXDU\犈犉犈犆犇犍 DFFHVVHG2FWREHU犈犈犈犆犇犏KWWSVFDUQHJLHHQGRZPHQWRUJ犈犆犇犍犆犈犈犉FKLQD VDGYDQFHGZHDSRQVSXE犌犎犆犏犋 犈犈 %LOO*HUW]犒&KLQD&RQGXFWV)LIWK7HVWRI+\SHUVRQLF*OLGH9HKLFOH犓 :DVKLQJWRQ)UHH%HDFRQ$XJXVW犈犇犈犆犇犋KWWSVIUHHEHDFRQFRPQDWLRQDO VHFXULW\FKLQDFRQGXFWVILIWKWHVWRIK\SHUVRQLFJOLGHYHKLFOH 

42



 Ǧͳ͹–‡•–•–Š‡‘–Š’”‹‘”ǡ ‹–‹‰—ƒ‡†‹–‡ŽŽ‹‰‡ ‡‘ˆˆ‹ ‹ƒŽ•Ǥʹ͵ Capabilities of the DF-17 Š‡  Ǧͳ͹ǯ• ‹–”‘†— –‹‘ ™‘””‹‡† ‘„•‡”˜‡”•Ǥ Š‡ ™‡ƒ’‘ ™ƒ• ƒ Capabilities of the DF-17 •‹‰‹ˆ‹ ƒ– Ž‡ƒ’ ‹ –Š‡  ”ƒ ‡ǣ –Š‡ ‘˜‡„‡” ʹͲͳ͹ –‡•–• ™‡”‡ –Š‡ ™‘”Ž†ǯ•ˆ‹”•––‡•–•‘ˆƒ •›•–‡‹–‡†‡†ˆ‘”ˆ‹‡Ž†‘’‡”ƒ–‹‘ǤdzʹͶ

Š‡ –Š‡ ™‡ƒ’‘ǯ• ‡š‹•–‡ ‡ ™ƒ• ˆ‹”•– ”‡’‘”–‡†ǡ •‘—” ‡• ‹ –Š‡  ‰‘˜‡”‡– ‹†‹ ƒ–‡† –Šƒ– –Š‡  Ǧͳ͹ ™‘—Ž† ”‡ƒ Š ‹‹–‹ƒŽ ‘’‡”ƒ–‹‰ ƒ’ƒ„‹Ž‹–› ȋ Ȍ ƒ”‘—† ʹͲʹͲǤ ʹͷ Š‹•‡•–‹ƒ–‡†‹†‘–˜ƒ”›ƒ‘‰ ƒƒŽ›•–•—–‹Ž–Š‡ˆ‹”•–’—„Ž‹ ƒ’’‡ƒ”ƒ ‡‘ˆ–Š‡ Ǧͳ͹ƒ––Š‡ –‘„‡”ͳǡ ʹͲͳͻŠ‹‡•‡ƒ–‹‘ƒŽƒ›‹Ž‹–ƒ”›’ƒ”ƒ†‡Ǥ›‹ Ž—†‹‰–Š‡•‹š–‡‡ Ǧ ͳ͹‹••‹Ž‡•‹–Š‡‡˜‡–ǡ–Š‡Š‹‡•‡‰‘˜‡”‡–‹–‡†‡†–‘•Š‘™ ƒ•‡ –Šƒ––Š‡™‡ƒ’‘Šƒ†„‡ƒ–‡•’‡ —Žƒ–‹‘ƒ†”‡ƒ Š‡† ™‹–Š‹ʹͲͳͻǤʹ͸ ƒ”ƒ†‡ƒ‘— ‡”••’‡ ‹ˆ‹ ƒŽŽ›†‡• ”‹„‡†–Š‡ Ǧͳ͹ƒ•ƒ ‘˜‡–‹‘ƒŽ ‹••‹Ž‡ǡ „—– ‹†‡’‡†‡– ƒƒŽ›•‹• ‹†‹ ƒ–‡• –Š‡ ‰Ž‹†‡” ƒŽ•‘ •—’’‘”–• — Ž‡ƒ” ™ƒ”Š‡ƒ†• „› †‡•‹‰Ǥ  —‰—•– ʹͲͳͻ ‡™• ƒ”–‹ Ž‡ “—‘–‡† ƒ —ƒ‡†‡’Ž‘›‡‡‘ˆ–Š‡‰Ž‹†‡”ǯ•ƒ—ˆƒ –—”‡”ǡ–Š‡•–ƒ–‡Ǧ‘™‡†Š‹ƒ ‡”‘•’ƒ ‡ ‹‡ ‡ƒ† †—•–”›‘”’‘”ƒ–‹‘ȋ Ȍǡ™Š‘†‡• ”‹„‡†–Š‡ ‰Ž‹†‡” ƒ• — Ž‡ƒ” ƒ† ‘˜‡–‹‘ƒŽŽ› †—ƒŽǦ ƒ’ƒ„Ž‡Ǥ ʹ͹  Š‹• ƒ ‘—– ‘””‘„‘”ƒ–‡† ƒ Žƒ–‡ǦʹͲͳ͹ †‡• ”‹’–‹‘ ‘ˆ –Š‡  „› ƒ  ‹–‡ŽŽ‹‰‡ ‡  犈犉 $QNLW3DQGD犒,QWURGXFLQJWKH')犇犍&KLQD犑V1HZO\7HVWHG%DOOLVWLF0LVVLOH $UPHG:LWKD+\SHUVRQLF*OLGH9HKLFOH犓7KH'LSORPDW'HFHPEHU犈犎犈犆犇犍 DFFHVVHG2FWREHU犈犈犈犆犇犏KWWSVWKHGLSORPDWFRP犈犆犇犍犇犈LQWURGXFLQJWKH GI犇犍FKLQDVQHZO\WHVWHGEDOOLVWLFPLVVLOHDUPHGZLWKDK\SHUVRQLFJOLGH YHKLFOH 犈犊 3DQGD犒,QWURGXFLQJWKH')犇犍&KLQD犑V1HZO\7HVWHG%DOOLVWLF0LVVLOH犓 犈犋 3DQGD犒,QWURGXFLQJWKH')犇犍&KLQD犑V1HZO\7HVWHG%DOOLVWLF0LVVLOH犓 犈犌 .HQKPDQQ犒')犇犍犓 犈犍 .ULVWLQ+XDQJ犒&KLQD犑V+\SHUVRQLF')犇犍0LVVLOH7KUHDWHQV5HJLRQDO6WDELOLW\ $QDO\VW:DUQV犓6RXWK&KLQD0RUQLQJ3RVW$XJXVW犈犉犈犆犇犏DFFHVVHG2FWREHU 犈犈犈犆犇犏KWWSVZZZVFPSFRPQHZVFKLQDPLOLWDU\DUWLFOH犉犆犈犉犏犍犈FKLQDV K\SHUVRQLFGI犇犍PLVVLOHWKUHDWHQVUHJLRQDOVWDELOLW\

43

 •‘—” ‡Ǥʹͺ Š‡ǯ•’‘”–”ƒ›ƒŽ‘ˆ–Š‡‰Ž‹†‡”ƒ•ƒ ‘˜‡–‹‘ƒŽ’”‡ ‹•‹‘ •–”‹‡™‡ƒ’‘”‡ˆŽ‡ –•ƒ•–”ƒ–‡‰‹  Š‘‹ ‡”ƒ–Š‡”–Šƒƒ–‡ Š‹ ƒŽ‘‡Ǣ„› Š‘‘•‹‰ –‘ ’—”•—‡ ‘˜‡–‹‘ƒŽ ‰Ž‹†‡”•ǡ –Š‡   ‹ ”‡ƒ•‡† –Š‡ Ž‹‡Ž‹Š‘‘† –Š‡ ‰Ž‹†‡” ™‘—Ž† „‡ ‡’Ž‘›‡† ‹ ‘„ƒ– ™Š‹Ž‡ ‹–‹‰ƒ–‹‰ ’‘–‡–‹ƒŽƒ —•ƒ–‹‘•‘ˆ˜‹‘Žƒ–‹‰Š‹ƒǯ•‘ˆ‹”•–—•‡— Ž‡ƒ”™‡ƒ’‘• ’‘Ž‹ ›ǤŠ‹‡•‡‹Ž‹–ƒ”›•‘—” ‡–‘Ž†”‡’‘”–‡”•‹‘˜‡„‡”ʹͲͳͻ–Šƒ– ƒŽŽ ˆ—”–Š‡”  Ǧͳ͹• ‹–”‘†— ‡† –‘ •‡”˜‹ ‡ ™‘—Ž† ’‘••‡•• ‘˜‡–‹‘ƒŽ ™ƒ”Š‡ƒ†•Ǥʹͻ

')LQPLOLWDU\SDUDGHIRUWKDQQLYHUVDU\RIWKH3HRSOH V5HSXEOLFRI&KLQD 6RXUFH 0LQLVWU\RI1DWLRQDO'HIHQVH3HRSOH V5HSXEOLFRI&KLQD 

 犈犎 $QNLW3DQGD犒+\SHUVRQLF+\SH-XVW+RZ%LJRID'HDO,V&KLQD犑V')犇犍 0LVVLOH"犓7KH'LSORPDW2FWREHU犍犈犆犇犏DFFHVVHG2FWREHU犈犈犈犆犇犏 KWWSVWKHGLSORPDWFRP犈犆犇犏犇犆K\SHUVRQLFK\SHMXVWKRZELJRIDGHDOLV FKLQDVGI犇犍PLVVLOH  犈犏 0LQQLH&KDQ犒:LOO+\SHUVRQLF')犇犍0LVVLOH7UDQVIRUP%HLMLQJ犑V7DLZDQ 6WUDWHJ\"犓6RXWK&KLQD0RUQLQJ3RVW1RYHPEHU犇犌犈犆犇犏 KWWSVZZZVFPSFRPQHZVFKLQDPLOLWDU\DUWLFOH犉犆犉犍犏犍犈ZLOOK\SHUVRQLFGI 犇犍PLVVLOHWUDQVIRUPEHLMLQJVWDLZDQ

44

  ‘”†‹‰ –‘  ‹–‡ŽŽ‹‰‡ ‡ ƒ••‡••‡–•ǡ –Š‡ „‘‘•–‡”‘ˆ –Š‡  Ǧͳ͹ ‹• Š‡ƒ˜‹Ž› „ƒ•‡† ‘ –Š‡ –™‘Ǧ•–ƒ‰‡ǡ ”‘ƒ†Ǧ‘„‹Ž‡ǡ •‘Ž‹†Ǧˆ—‡Ž‡†  Ǧͳ͸ Ǥ͵Ͳ Š‡ Ǧͳ͸‡–‡”‡†•‡”˜‹ ‡‹ʹͲͳͳ‘”ʹͲͳʹƒ† ƒ””‹‡•–Š”‡‡   ‘˜‡–‹‘ƒŽǡ•—„—‹–‹‘ǡ‘”— Ž‡ƒ”™ƒ”Š‡ƒ†•™‹–Šƒ”ƒ‰‡‘ˆ ͺͲͲǦͳǡͲͲͲ Ǥ ͵ͳ  Š‡  Ǧͳ͹ ‹• Ž‘‰‡” ”ƒ‰‡† –Šƒ ‹–• „ƒŽŽ‹•–‹  ‘—–‡”’ƒ”–ƒ† ƒ”‡’‘”–‡†Ž›•–”‹‡–ƒ”‰‡–•ͳǡͺͲͲǦʹǡͷͲͲˆ”‘‹–• Žƒ— Š’‘‹–ǡ–”ƒ˜‡Ž‹‰ƒ–•’‡‡†•„‡–™‡‡ƒ Šͷƒ†ƒ ŠͳͲƒŽ–‹–—†‡• ƒ”‘—†͸ͲǤ͵ʹ Š‡ Ǧ ‰Ž‹†‡”‹•™‡†‰‡Ǧ•Šƒ’‡†ǡ–ƒ‹‰ƒˆ–‡”‡ˆ‡•‡ †˜ƒ ‡† ‡•‡ƒ” Š ”‘Œ‡ –• ‰‡ ›ǯ• ȋȌ Ǧʹ ƒ† —••‹ƒǯ• ˜ƒ‰ƒ”†”ƒ–Š‡”–Šƒ–Š‡”›ǯ• ‘‹ ƒŽ ǡƒ‰”ƒ’Š‹ ‘ˆ™Š‹ Š™ƒ• •‘‡–‹‡• ‘ˆ—•‡†ˆ‘”–Š‡ Ǧ ‹‡ƒ”Ž›”‡’‘”–‹‰Ǥ

›–Š‡—„‡”•ǡ–Š‡ Ǧͳ͹‹•‘–ƒ•ƒ„‹–‹‘—•‘ˆƒ ƒ•–Š‘•‡–‡•–‡† „› ǡ –Š‡  ”›ǡ ‘” –Š‡ —••‹ƒ ‰‘˜‡”‡–ǡ •‘‡–Š‹‰ ’‘–‡–‹ƒŽŽ›‘˜‡”Ž‘‘‡†‹ˆ‘‡ ‘ˆŽƒ–‡•ƒŽŽŠ›’‡”•‘‹ ™‡ƒ’‘•†‡•’‹–‡ •’‡‡††‹ˆˆ‡”‡ ‡•‰”‡ƒ–‡”–Šƒƒ ŠͳͲƒ†–Š‘—•ƒ†•‘ˆ‹Ž‘‡–‡”•‹ ”ƒ‰‡†‹• ”‡’ƒ ›Ǥ˜‡ƒ––Š‡—’’‡”‡†‘ˆ–Š‡ Ǧͳ͹ǯ••’‡‡†‡•–‹ƒ–‡ǡ ƒ Š ͳͲǡ ‹– ˆƒŽŽ• ˆƒ” •Š‘”– ‘ˆ ǯ• Ǧʹǯ• ƒ Š ʹͲ ‘” —••‹ƒǯ• ˜ƒ‰ƒ”†ǯ• ƒŽŽ‡‰‡† ȋŽ‹‡Ž› ‡šƒ‰‰‡”ƒ–‡†Ȍ ƒ Š ʹ͹ ˆŽ‹‰Š– ˜‡Ž‘ ‹–›Ǥ ͵͵ ‹‹Žƒ”Ž›ǡ–Š‘—‰Š–Š‡”ƒ‰‡‘ˆ–Š‡ Ǧͳ͹ȋͳǡͺͲͲǦʹǡͷͲͲȌ‹••‹‰‹ˆ‹ ƒ–ǡ ‹–‹•™‡ŽŽ•Š›‘ˆ–Š‡͸ǡͲͲͲڍ”ƒ‰‡•‘ˆ–Š‡˜ƒ‰ƒ”†ƒ†–Š‡”›ǯ•  ƒ† ‡”–ƒ‹Ž›‘–‘–Š‡‘”†‡”‘ˆͳ͸ǡͲͲͲǡƒ••‘‡”‡•‡ƒ” Š‡”• Šƒ˜‡„ƒ•‡†„”‘ƒ†‡”ƒ••‡••‡–•‘ˆ •Ǥ͵Ͷ Š‘—‰Š•‘‡ƒƒŽ›•–•Šƒ˜‡  犉犆 3DQGD犒,QWURGXFLQJWKH')犇犍&KLQD犑V1HZO\7HVWHG%DOOLVWLF0LVVLOH犓 犉犇 犒')犇犌 'RQJ)HQJ犇犌&66犇犇 犓&6,60LVVLOH7KUHDW1RYHPEHU犇犊犈犆犇犏 KWWSVPLVVLOHWKUHDWFVLVRUJPLVVLOHGRQJIHQJ犇犌FVV犇犇 犉犈 3DQGD犒,QWURGXFLQJWKH')犇犍&KLQD犑V1HZO\7HVWHG%DOOLVWLF0LVVLOH犓 犉犉犒ʥ̨̨̡̨̡̛̛̛̬̭̭̪̼̯̦̥̪̣̖̭̏̌́̌犐ʤ̦̬̏̌̐̌̔犑 ̨̡̨̨̨̨̨̛̣̖̭̪̭̦̭̯̬̦̯̭̔̌̌̐̍̽̌̐́̽́̚̚ ̨̔犈犍ʺ̵̨̌̏犓 7$66'HFHPEHU犈犍犈犆犇犎KWWSVWDVVUXDUPL\DLRSN犋犏犋犎犎犏犌 犉犊 犒$YDQJDUG犓&6,60LVVLOH7KUHDW6HSWHPEHU犈犏犈犆犇犏 KWWSVPLVVLOHWKUHDWFVLVRUJPLVVLOHDYDQJDUG:RROI犒&RQYHQWLRQDO3URPSW

45

 •—‰‰‡•–‡†–Šƒ–’Žƒ ‹‰–Š‡ Ǧ ‘ƒ ™‘—Ž†‰‹˜‡‹–‰Ž‘„ƒŽ”ƒ‰‡ǡ –Š‹• ‹• ‹’Žƒ—•‹„Ž‡Ǥ Š‡  Ǧ  ‹• ƒŽ‘•– ‡”–ƒ‹Ž› ‹ ƒ’ƒ„Ž‡ ‘ˆ ™‹–Š•–ƒ†‹‰–Š‡Š‡ƒ–•–”‡••ƒ†ƒ‹–ƒ‹‹‰–Š‡”‡“—‹”‡†Ž‹ˆ–Ǧ–‘Ǧ†”ƒ‰ ”ƒ–‹‘•ƒ†•’‡‡†•”‡“—‹”‡†ˆ‘”ƒŽ‘‰Ǧ†‹•–ƒ ‡‰Ž‹†‡Ǥ The DF- 17 in a Conflict

Š‹Ž‡–Š‡‹–‡†–ƒ–‡•ƒ†—••‹ƒ™‘”‡†ˆ‘”›‡ƒ”•‘Ž‘‰Ǧ”ƒ‰‡ •ǡ Š‹ƒ Š‘•‡ –‘ ˆ‘ —• ‘ –Š‡ ‡†‹—Ǧ”ƒ‰‡  Ǧ Ǥ Š‹• Š‘‹ ‡ ƒ› ‹†‹ ƒ–‡ƒ‡ˆˆ‘”––‘‹ ”‡ƒ•‡–Š‡’”‘‰”ƒǯ••’‡‡†ǡ‰‹˜‡ˆ‡™‡”–‡ Š‹ ƒŽ ŠƒŽŽ‡‰‡•ǡ„—–‹–ƒŽ•‘Ž‹‡Ž›”‡ˆŽ‡ –•–Š‡ ’”‹‘”‹–›‘–Š‡ƒ–‡”Ǧ—•‡ ™‡ƒ’‘•‘–‹””‘”‡†„›‡”‹ ƒƒ†—••‹ƒ ‘—–‡”’ƒ”–•Ǥ‘—” ‡• ™‹–Š‹–Š‡Š‹‡•‡‹Ž‹–ƒ”›Šƒ˜‡†‡• ”‹„‡†–Š‡ Ǧͳ͹ƒ•ƒ”‡’Žƒ ‡‡– ˆ‘”–Š‡‘Ž†‡”ƒ†Ž‡••ƒ —”ƒ–‡ Ǧͳͳƒ† Ǧͳͷ•–”ƒ‹‡†Š‡ƒ˜‹Ž› ‘ ƒ‹™ƒǤ ͵ͷ  Š‹•ǡ ‘—’Ž‡† ™‹–Š –Š‡ ‹••‹Ž‡ǯ• ‘˜‡–‹‘ƒŽ ƒ–—”‡ǡ •—‰‰‡•– ƒ †‹ˆˆ‡”‡– ‘„Œ‡ –‹˜‡ –Šƒ —••‹ƒǯ• ˜ƒ‰ƒ”† ’”‘‰”ƒǡ ™Š‹ Š ƒ‹•–‘†‡ˆ‡ƒ–ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‹••‹Ž‡†‡ˆ‡•‡•–‘†‡Ž‹˜‡”ƒ— Ž‡ƒ”•–”‹‡Ǥ Š‹ƒƒ†—••‹ƒ†‘•Šƒ”‡•‹‹Žƒ” ‘ ‡”•ƒ„‘—–ƒ†ˆ—–—”‡ ’”‘’– ‰Ž‘„ƒŽ •–”‹‡ ’”‘‰”ƒ• ‡Ž‹‹ƒ–‹‰ –Š‡‹” •–”ƒ–‡‰‹  †‡–‡””‡–ǡ Š‘™‡˜‡”Ǥ ƒŽ›•‹• ‘ˆ Š‹‡•‡  Ž‹–‡”ƒ–—”‡ •Š‘™• Ž‹––Ž‡ †‹•–‹ –‹‘ „‡–™‡‡ ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ƒ† –Š‡ƒ–‡” ‹••‹Ž‡ †‡ˆ‡•‡ •›•–‡• ‹ –‡ Š‹ ƒŽ ”‡’‘”–•Ǥ ͵͸  Š‡ Ž‹‡Ž› ‡š– ‰‘ƒŽ ‹ Š‹ƒǯ•  ’”‘‰”ƒȄ ”‡ƒ–‹‰ ƒ ‰Ž‹†‡” ™‹–Š ”ƒ‰‡• ‘’ƒ”ƒ„Ž‡ –‘  ƒ† —••‹ƒ •›•–‡•Ȅ™‹ŽŽ ‹–”‘†— ‡•‹‰‹ˆ‹ ƒ–‡™ ŠƒŽŽ‡‰‡•‹‘†‡Ž‹‰ǡƒ‡”‘†›ƒ‹  ‘–”‘Žǡ 

 *OREDO6WULNHDQG/RQJ5DQJH%DOOLVWLF0LVVLOHV%DFNJURXQGDQG,VVXHV犓S犇犌 6SHLHUHWDO+\SHUVRQLF0LVVLOH1RQSUROLIHUDWLRQS犏 犉犋 0LQQLH&KDQ犒:LOO+\SHUVRQLF')犇犍0LVVLOH7UDQVIRUP%HLMLQJ犑V7DLZDQ 6WUDWHJ\"犓 犉犌 /RUD6DDOPDQ犒&KLQD犑V&DOFXOXVRQ+\SHUVRQLF*OLGH犓6WRFNKROP ,QWHUQDWLRQDO3HDFH5HVHDUFK,QVWLWXWH$XJXVW犇犋犈犆犇犍 KWWSVZZZVLSULRUJFRPPHQWDU\WRSLFDOEDFNJURXQGHU犈犆犇犍FKLQDVFDOFXOXV K\SHUVRQLFJOLGH

46

 ƒ˜‹‰ƒ–‹‘ǡƒ†–‡•–‹‰Ǥ͵͹ Š‡ Ǧͳ͹™‹ŽŽ—†‘—„–‡†Ž›ƒ –ƒ•ƒ•–‡’’‹‰ •–‘‡‹‹–•‡ˆˆ‘”–•–‘†‡˜‡Ž‘’•— Šƒ™‡ƒ’‘Ǥ 

The DF- 17 in a Conflict

‘‡ ”‡’‘”–• †‡• ”‹„‡ –Š‡  Ǧͳ͹ ƒ• ƒ ™‡ƒ’‘ †”‹˜‡ „› –‡ Š‘Ž‘‰› †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡––‘ ƒ– Š—’™‹–Š–Š‡‹–‡†–ƒ–‡•ƒ†—••‹ƒ”ƒ–Š‡”–Šƒ ˆ‘”ƒ•’‡ ‹ˆ‹ ‹Ž‹–ƒ”›‘„Œ‡ –‹˜‡Ǥ͵ͺ Š‘—‰Š–Š‹•‹•Ž‹‡Ž›–”—‡ȋ‘”™ƒ•‹ ‡ƒ”Ž‹‡”†‡˜‡Ž‘’‡–Ȍǡ–Š‡ Ǧͳ͹‘™•–ƒ†•–‘’Žƒ›ƒ‹’‘”–ƒ–”‘Ž‡ ˆ‘”–Š‡ ǤŠ‘—‰Š–Š‡ Ǧͳ͹Žƒ ••‘‡‘ˆ–Š‡ƒ––”‹„—–‡•ƒƒŽ›•–• Šƒ˜‡†‡• ”‹„‡†ƒ•ƒŒ‘”„‡‡ˆ‹–•‘ˆ •ȋ‹Ǥ‡Ǥ‡š–”‡‡”ƒ‰‡ƒ†Š‹‰Š Š›’‡”•‘‹ •’‡‡†Ȍǡ‹–‘‡–Š‡Ž‡••„‘ƒ•–•ƒ˜ƒ”‹‡–›‘ˆƒ†˜ƒ–ƒ‰‡•‘˜‡”–Š‡ •Š‹ƒŠƒ•†‡’Ž‘›‡†–‘–Š‹•’‘‹–Ǥ‡•’‹–‡•‘‡•’‡ —Žƒ–‹‘•ƒ„‘—– ƒ–‹Ǧƒ”‡ƒƒ ‡••†‡‹ƒŽȋʹȀȌƒ–‹Ǧ•Š‹’ƒ’’Ž‹ ƒ–‹‘•ǡ–Š‡ Ǧͳ͹‹•‘– —””‡–Ž› ƒ„Ž‡ –‘ –ƒ”‰‡– ƒ ‘˜‹‰ ƒ‹” ”ƒˆ– ƒ””‹‡”Ǥ ͵ͻ  Š‡ ‘•‡•—• ƒ‘‰•’‡ ‹ƒŽ‹•–•‹•–Šƒ––Š‡ Ǧͳ͹‹•†‡•‹‰‡†’”‹ƒ”‹Ž›–‘‡˜ƒ†‡–Š‡ •›•–‡•†‡’Ž‘›‡†„›–Š‡‹–‡†–ƒ–‡•ƒ†‹–•ƒŽŽ‹‡•‹–Š‡ƒ ‹ˆ‹ ǤͶͲ Ǧ†‡˜‡Ž‘’‡†’‘‹–†‡ˆ‡•‡•›•–‡•‹ Ž—†‡Žƒ†Ǧ„ƒ•‡†‡”‹ƒŽ ‹‰Š Ž–‹–—†‡”‡ƒ‡ˆ‡•‡ȋ Ȍǡƒ–”‹‘–†˜ƒ ‡†ƒ’ƒ„‹Ž‹–›Ǧ͵ȋǦ͵Ȍǡ ƒ† ‡‰‹• •Š‘”‡ ‹–‡” ‡’–‘”• ƒ• ™‡ŽŽ ƒ• •Š‹’Ǧ„ƒ•‡† ‡‰‹•  ȋ•‡‡ –ƒ„Ž‡ͳȌǤ

 犉犍 $FWRQ犒&KLQD犑V$GYDQFHG:HDSRQV犓  犉犎 犒+\SHUVRQLF:HDSRQV$&KDOOHQJHDQG2SSRUWXQLW\IRU6WUDWHJLF$UPV &RQWURO犓S犇犋 犉犏 0LQQLH&KDQ犒:LOO+\SHUVRQLF')犇犍0LVVLOH7UDQVIRUP%HLMLQJ犑V7DLZDQ 6WUDWHJ\"犓 犊犆 .DUHQ0RQWDJXH(ULND6ROHP犒7KH8OWLPDWH*XLGHWR&KLQD犑V+\SHUVRQLF :HDSRQV3URJUDP犓7KH1DWLRQDO,QWHUHVW0D\犉犈犆犇犌 KWWSVQDWLRQDOLQWHUHVWRUJEORJWKHEX]]WKHXOWLPDWHJXLGHFKLQDV K\SHUVRQLFZHDSRQVSURJUDP犇犌犆犈犏 

47

 6\VWHP 'HYHORSHU ,QWHUFHSW /RFDWLRQ V  2SHUDWRU V  3KDVH V 

7+$$' /RFNKHHG0DUWLQ 0LGFRXUVH *XDP6RXWK 8QLWHG6WDWHV 7HUPLQDO .RUHD

3$& 5D\WKHRQ 7HUPLQDO 6RXWK.RUHD 8QLWHG6WDWHV -DSDQ 6RXWK.RUHD 7DLZDQ -DSDQ7DLZDQ

$HJLV /RFNKHHG0DUWLQ $VFHQW -DSDQ 1$ $VKRUH 0LGFRXUVH SODQQHG  7HUPLQDO

.RUHDQ$LU 0XOWLSOH 7HUPLQDO 6RXWK.RUHD 6RXWK.RUHD DQG0LVVLOH 'HIHQVH

6N\%RZ 1DWLRQDO&KXQJ 0LGFRXUVH 7DLZDQ 7DLZDQ ⣑⺻  6KDQ,QVWLWXWHRI 7HUPLQDO 6FLHQFHDQG 7HFKQRORJ\

$HJLV%0' /RFNKHHG0DUWLQ $VFHQW 6KLSEDVHG 8QLWHG6WDWHV 0LGFRXUVH 6RXWK.RUHD 7HUPLQDO -DSDQ$XVWUDOLD SODQQHG 

7DEOH%DOOLVWLF0LVVLOH'HIHQVH6\VWHPV(PSOR\HGE\WKH8QLWHG6WDWHVDQGLWV$OOLHV LQ WKH 3DFLILF 6RXUFH$XWKRU¶V FRPSLODWLRQ IURP$UPV &RQWURO$VVRFLDWLRQ  $OH[&DOYR1DWLRQDO5HVHDUFK&RXQFLO 86 S 

‘‡‡š’‡”–•Šƒ˜‡•—‰‰‡•–‡† —””‡––‡”‹ƒŽ•›•–‡•‹‰Š–„‡ ƒ†ƒ’–‡†–‘†‡ˆ‡†ƒ‰ƒ‹•– •Ž‹‡–Š‡ Ǧͳ͹ǤͶͳ ”— ‹ƒŽŽ›ǡ‹ˆ–Š‹•‹•–”—‡ǡ –Š‡ Ǧͳ͹™‹ŽŽ†‘Ž‹––Ž‡–‘ƒŽ–‡”–Š‡•–ƒ–—•Ǧ“—‘ƒ†Šƒ˜‡ƒ‹‹ƒŽ‹’ƒ –  犊犇 -DPHV0$FWRQ犒+\SHUVRQLF:HDSRQV([SODLQHU犓&DUQHJLH(QGRZPHQWIRU ,QWHUQDWLRQDO3HDFH$SULO犈犈犆犇犎DFFHVVHG1RYHPEHU犈犍犈犆犇犏 KWWSVFDUQHJLHHQGRZPHQWRUJ犈犆犇犎犆犊犆犈K\SHUVRQLFZHDSRQVH[SODLQHU SXE犍犋犏犋犍

48

 ‘–Š‡ǦŠ‹ƒ•–”ƒ–‡‰‹ „ƒŽƒ ‡‘”Š‹ƒǯ•”‡‰‹‘ƒŽŠ‘Ž†Ǥ—–‹ˆ–Š‡ Ǧ ͳ͹‹•‹†‡‡† ƒ’ƒ„Ž‡‘ˆ‡˜ƒ†‹‰–Š‡•‡•›•–‡•ǡƒ••‘‡‘ˆˆ‹ ‹ƒŽ• Šƒ˜‡•—‰‰‡•–‡†ǡ–Š‡–Š‡ ƒ›‘™„‡ ƒ’ƒ„Ž‡‘ˆ ”‹’’Ž‹‰ ”‹–‹ ƒŽ †‡ˆ‡•‡•›•–‡•‘ˆ‹–•‘’’‘‡–•ƒ––Š‡‘•‡–‘ˆƒ ‘ˆŽ‹ –‹–Š‡•‹ƒǦ ƒ ‹ˆ‹ ”‡‰‹‘Ǥ •— Šƒ ‘ˆŽ‹ –ǡ–Š‡ Ǧͳ͹™‘—Ž†Ž‹‡Ž›ƒ –ƒ•ƒˆ‹”•–Ǧ •–”‹‡™‡ƒ’‘–‘†‡•–”‘›„ƒ––‡”‹‡•ƒ†”ƒ†ƒ”‹•–ƒŽŽƒ–‹‘•ǡƒ‹‰ ™ƒ›ˆ‘”„ƒŽŽ‹•–‹ ‹••‹Ž‡•ƒ†•Ž‘™‡” ”—‹•‡‹••‹Ž‡•–‘•–”‹‡‡••‡–‹ƒŽ –ƒ”‰‡–•—‹’‡†‡†Ǥ•–Š‡–‹’‘ˆ–Š‡•’‡ƒ”‹Š‹‡•‡‹••‹Ž‡•–”ƒ–‡‰›ǡ •ƒ›•‘‘ ‘•–‹–—–‡ƒ ”‹–‹ ƒŽ ‘‰‹–Š‡  ‘„ƒ–ƒ Š‹‡Ǥ ʹͲͳ͹ ‡–‡” ˆ‘” ƒ ‡™ ‡”‹ ƒ ‡ —”‹–› •‹—Žƒ–‹‘ ˆ‘—† –Šƒ– –Š‡ •Š‡‡” —„‡” ‘ˆ   • ‘—Ž† ‘˜‡”™Š‡Ž —””‡–   ƒ– „ƒ•‡• ‹ ƒ’ƒ ‹ ƒ ’”‡‡’–‹˜‡ •–”‹‡ • ‡ƒ”‹‘ „—– –Šƒ– ƒ •‹‰‹ˆ‹ ƒ– ’‘”–‹‘ ‘ˆ –Š‡ „ƒŽŽ‹•–‹  ‹••‹Ž‡• ™‘—Ž† „‡ ‹–‡” ‡’–‡†ǣ ̱ͶͲǦ͹ͲΨƒ– ‹ƒ™ƒǡ ̱͸ͷǦͺͲΨ ƒ– ƒ‘–ƒǡ ̱ͶͲǦ͸ͲΨ ƒ– ƒ‘•—ƒǡ ƒ† ̱ͶͲǦ͹ͲΨ ⣑⺻ ‹•ƒ™ƒǤͶʹ  ˆ ƒ ‹‹–‹ƒŽ  •–”‹‡ ™‡”‡ –‘ ‡ˆˆ‡ –‹˜‡Ž› ‡Ž‹‹ƒ–‡  •›•–‡•ǡ‹–™‘—Ž†•‹‰‹ˆ‹ ƒ–Ž›‹ ”‡ƒ•‡–Š‡‡ˆˆ‹ ‹‡ ›ƒ†Ž‡–ŠƒŽ‹–›‘ˆ–Š‡ ‹••‹Ž‡• –Šƒ– ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™‡†ǡ ƒŽŽ‘™‹‰ ˆ‘” –Š‡ ‡ƒ”Ǧ ‘’Ž‡–‡ †‡•–”— –‹‘ ‘ˆ ‘ƒ† ƒ† ‘–”‘Ž ‡–‡”•ǡ •Š‹’• ƒ– ’‘”–ǡ ”—™ƒ›•ǡ Šƒ‰‡”•ǡ ƒ† Ž‘‰‹•–‹ ƒŽˆƒ ‹Ž‹–‹‡•™Š‹ Š ‘—Ž†–‹’–Š‡• ƒŽ‡•‘ˆƒ ‘ˆŽ‹ –ǤŠ‘—‰Š‹–‹• ƒŽ”‡ƒ†›’‘••‹„Ž‡ˆ‘”Š‹ƒ–‘ƒ Š‹‡˜‡•‹‰‹ˆ‹ ƒ–†ƒƒ‰‡„›‡šŠƒ—•–‹‰ ƒ† ‘˜‡”™Š‡Ž‹‰ ‹–‡” ‡’–‘” ‹••‹Ž‡•ǡ –Š‡  Ǧͳ͹ ™‘—Ž† ƒŽŽ‘™ –Š‡  –‘•–”‹‡‘”‡–ƒ”‰‡–•ƒ†“—‹ ‡–Š‡ƒ••ƒ—Ž–Ǥ

 犊犈 7KRPDV6KXJDUWDQG-DYLHU*RQ]DOH]犒)LUVW6WULNH&KLQD犑V0LVVLOH7KUHDWWR 86%DVHVLQ$VLD犓&HQWHUIRUD1HZ$PHULFDQ6HFXULW\犈犆犇犍S犇犊-6725 KWWSVZZZMVWRURUJVWDEOHUHVUHS犆犌犇犌犎

49

 Great Power Competition Implications /DXQFKLQJRI6N\%RZ0LVVLOH 6RXUFH

Š‹• ’”‹ ‹’Ž‡ ƒ’’Ž‹‡• ™‘””›‹‰Ž› –‘ ƒ‹™ƒǤ • ‘—–Ž‹‡† ‹ –Š‡ ‡’ƒ”–‡– ‘ˆ ‡ˆ‡•‡ ʹͲͳͻ Š‹ƒ ‹Ž‹–ƒ”› ‘™‡” ‡’‘”–ǣ DzŠ‡  ‘–‹—‡•–‘’”‡’ƒ”‡ˆ‘” ‘–‹‰‡ ‹‡•‹–Š‡ƒ‹™ƒ–”ƒ‹––‘†‡–‡”ǡƒ† ‹ˆ‡ ‡••ƒ”›ǡ ‘’‡Žƒ‹™ƒ–‘ƒ„ƒ†‘‘˜‡•–‘™ƒ”†‹†‡’‡†‡ ‡Ǥ Š‡ƒŽ•‘‹•Ž‹‡Ž›’”‡’ƒ”‹‰ˆ‘”ƒ ‘–‹‰‡ ›–‘—‹ˆ›ƒ‹™ƒ™‹–Š –Š‡ ƒ‹Žƒ† „› ˆ‘” ‡ǡ ™Š‹Ž‡ •‹—Ž–ƒ‡‘—•Ž› †‡–‡””‹‰ǡ †‡Žƒ›‹‰ǡ ‘” †‡›‹‰ƒ›–Š‹”†Ǧ’ƒ”–›‹–‡”˜‡–‹‘‘ƒ‹™ƒǯ•„‡ŠƒŽˆǤdzͶ͵

Š‘—‰Š –Š‡  —””‡–Ž› ’‘••‡••‡• –Š‡ ‹Ž‹–ƒ”› ƒ’ƒ„‹Ž‹–› –‘ ‘˜‡”™Š‡Ž ƒ‹™ƒǡ –Š‡  Ǧͳ͹ •‡”˜‡• –‘ ‡•—”‡ ƒ Ž‡–ŠƒŽ ƒ† ‡ˆˆ‹ ‹‡– ‘ˆŽ‹ –™Š‹ Š™‘—Ž†ˆ—”–Š‡”ƒ†˜ƒ–ƒ‰‡Š‹ƒˆ”‘–Š‡•–ƒ”–ƒ† ”‹’’Ž‡ ƒ‹™ƒǯ•ƒ•›‡–”‹ ƒ†˜ƒ–ƒ‰‡•ƒ•ƒ†‡ˆ‡†‡”ǤŽ‹‹ƒ–‹‰ƒ‹™ƒ‡•‡  犊犉 犒0LOLWDU\DQG6HFXULW\'HYHORSPHQWV,QYROYLQJWKH3HRSOH犑V5HSXEOLFRI&KLQD 犈犆犇犏犓8QLWHG6WDWHV'HSDUWPHQWRI'HIHQVH犈犆犇犏S犍犆 KWWSVPHGLDGHIHQVHJRY犈犆犇犏0D\犆犈犈犆犆犈犇犈犍犆犎犈犇 犇犇犈犆犇犏B&+,1$B0,/,7$5

50

 ‹†‹‰‡‘—• ƒ† ‹’‘”–‡†  ȋ› ‘™ ƒ† Ǧ͵ •›•–‡•Ȍ ™‘—Ž† ƒŽŽ‘™ „ƒŽŽ‹•–‹  ‹••‹Ž‡• –‘ ‡ˆˆ‹ ‹‡–Ž› ‡Ž‹‹ƒ–‡ ƒ‹™ƒǯ• †‡ˆ‡•‡• ƒ† ‘–”‘Ž ƒ† Ž‘‰‹•–‹ • ‡–‡”• ˆ”‘ ƒˆƒ” „‡ˆ‘”‡ ”‹•‹‰ –Š‡ •‹‰‹ˆ‹ ƒ– ƒ•—ƒŽ–‹‡•ƒ‹˜ƒ•‹‘‹‰Š–‹ —”ǤŠ‹•‹•’‘–‡–‹ƒŽŽ›ƒ•Šƒ”’„Ž‘™–‘ ƒ‹™ƒǡ™Š‘•‡†‡ˆ‡•‡’‘•–—”‡”‡•–•‹Žƒ”‰‡’ƒ”–‘ƒ••—”‹‰–Šƒ–ƒ› ‹˜ƒ•‹‘ǡ‡˜‡‹ˆ‡˜‡–—ƒŽŽ›•— ‡••ˆ—Žǡ™‘—Ž†„‡‡š ”— ‹ƒ–‹‰Ž›’ƒ‹ˆ—Ž ƒ†’”‘–”ƒ –‡†ƒ†–Š‡”‡ˆ‘”‡‘–™‘”–Š–Š‡”‹•ǤͶͶ ›“—‹ ‡‹‰–Š‡ •’‡‡† ‘ˆ ƒ ‹˜ƒ•‹‘ǡ –Š‡  Ǧͳ͹ ™‘—Ž† ƒŽ•‘ ˆ—”–Š‡” ƒ ‡› ‡Ž‡‡– ‘ˆ Š‹ƒǯ•‹˜ƒ•‹‘’Žƒǣ•‡‹œ‹‰–Š‡‹•Žƒ†•‘“—‹ Ž›ƒ††‡ ‹•‹˜‡Ž›–Šƒ– –Š‡ ‹–‡† –ƒ–‡• ™‘—Ž† ‘– Šƒ˜‡ –‹‡ –‘ †‡Ž‹„‡”ƒ–‡ ƒ† ’Žƒ ƒ ‹–‡”˜‡–‹‘Ǥ

Great Power Competition Implications

‹˜‡–Š‡ ‘–‹—‡†‹’”‘„ƒ„‹Ž‹–›‘ˆǦŠ‹ƒ‹Ž‹–ƒ”› ‘ˆŽ‹ –ǡ–Š‡ Ǧ ͳ͹™‹ŽŽŽ‹‡Ž›’Žƒ›‹–•‘•–‹’‘”–ƒ–”‘Ž‡ƒ•ƒ†‡–‡””‡–ƒ†–‘‘Ž–‘‰”ƒ– Š‹ƒ‹ ”‡ƒ•‡†Ž‡˜‡”ƒ‰‡”ƒ–Š‡”–Šƒƒ–ƒ –‹ ƒŽ™‡ƒ’‘ǤŠ‡ƒ‹•–‘ „—‹Ž†ƒˆ‘” ‡•—ˆˆ‹ ‹‡–Ž›–Š”‡ƒ–‡‹‰–‘†‹••—ƒ†‡–Š‡‹–‡†–ƒ–‡•ˆ”‘ ‹–‡”˜‡‹‰‹ƒ ‘ˆŽ‹ –™‹–Šƒ‹™ƒ‘” ‘–‡•–‹‰‹–• Žƒ‹•‹–Š‡‘—–Š Š‹ƒ•‡ƒǤͶͷ ‡ ƒ—•‡–Š‡ Ǧͳ͹‡š’‘•‡•–Š‡‹–‡†–ƒ–‡•–‘•—††‡ƒ† ‹ ”‡ƒ•‹‰Ž›Ž‡–ŠƒŽƒ––ƒ ǡ‹–•‹–”‘†— –‹‘•–”‡‰–Š‡•–Š‡Š‹‡•‡Š‘Ž† ‘˜‡” –Š‡ •‹ƒǦƒ ‹ˆ‹ Ǥ ‘ Ž‘‰ ƒ• ‰Ž‘„ƒŽ ’‘Ž‹ ›ƒ‡”• „‡Ž‹‡˜‡ Š‹‡•‡ •ƒ”‡ƒ•‡”‹‘—•–Š”‡ƒ––‘ƒ†˜‡”•ƒ”‹ƒŽˆ‘” ‡•‹–Š‡ƒ ‹ˆ‹ ǡ–Š‡ Ǧͳ͹ ™‹ŽŽ”‡ƒ‹ƒ ”‹–‹ ƒŽ‡Ž‡‡–‹ƒ••‡••‹‰–Š‡•–”‡‰–Š‘ˆ–Š‡ƒ† –Š‡”‹••‘ˆ‹˜‘Ž˜‡‡–‹”‡‰‹‘ƒŽ ‘ˆŽ‹ –Ǥ–ƒʹͲͳͺ–‡•–‹‘›„‡ˆ‘”‡  犊犊 犈犆犇犍1DWLRQDO'HIHQVH5HSRUW7KH5HSXEOLFRI&KLQD0LQLVWU\RI1DWLRQDO 'HIHQVH'HFHPEHU犈犆犇犍S犌犍KWWSZZZXV WDLZDQRUJUHSRUWV犈犆犇犍BGHFHPEHUBWDLZDQBQDWLRQDOBGHIHQVHBUHSRUWSGI 犊犋 犒0LOLWDU\DQG6HFXULW\'HYHORSPHQWV,QYROYLQJWKH3HRSOH犑V5HSXEOLFRI&KLQD 犈犆犇犏犓S犍犆

51

 –Š‡‡ƒ–‡”‡†‡”˜‹ ‡•‘‹––‡‡ǡ†‡”‡ ”‡–ƒ”›‘ˆ‡ˆ‡•‡ ˆ‘”‡•‡ƒ” Šƒ†‰‹‡‡”‹‰‹ Šƒ‡Ž ”‹ˆˆ‹•–ƒ–‡†ǣ

China has fielded or can field […] hypersonic delivery systems for conventional prompt strike that can reach out thousands of kilometers from the Chinese shore and hold our carrier battle groups or our forward-deployed forces on land that have bases […] at-risk. We, today, do not have systems that can hold them at-risk in a corresponding manner, and we do not have defenses against those systems.46

‹” ‘” ‡ ‡‡”ƒŽ ‘Š ›–‡ǡ‘™‹ ‡Šƒ‹”ƒ‘ˆ–Š‡ ‘‹–Š‹‡ˆ• ‘ˆ –ƒˆˆ ƒ† –Š‡ǦŠ‡ƒ† ‘ˆ –Š‡ ‹–‡† –ƒ–‡• –”ƒ–‡‰‹  ‘ƒ†ǡ ”‡•’‘†‡†•‹‹Žƒ”Ž›™Š‡ƒ•‡†ƒ„‘—– •„‡ˆ‘”‡–Š‡•ƒ‡ ‘‹––‡‡ǡ Dz‡†‘ǯ–Šƒ˜‡ƒ›†‡ˆ‡•‡–Šƒ– ‘—Ž††‡›–Š‡‡’Ž‘›‡–‘ˆ•— Šƒ ™‡ƒ’‘ƒ‰ƒ‹•–—•ǤdzͶ͹ Š‡•‡–‡•–‹‘‹‡•‹†‹ ƒ–‡–Šƒ– ‘ ‡”•ƒ„‘—– Š›’‡”•‘‹  ™‡ƒ’‘• ƒ† –Š‡  Ǧͳ͹ ƒ”‡ ƒ– –Š‡ ˆ‘”‡ˆ”‘– ‘ˆ  ’‘Ž‹ ›ƒ‡”• ƒ† ‹Ž‹–ƒ”› ‘ˆˆ‹ ‹ƒŽ•ǯ ‹†•Ǥ Š‡  Ǧͳ͹ǯ• ’”‡•‡ ‡ ™‹ŽŽ Šƒ˜‡Šƒ†ƒ”‡ƒŽ‹’ƒ –‘Š‘™–Š‡–Š”‡ƒ–‹•’‡” ‡‹˜‡†Ǥ

Š‹ƒ Šƒ• ƒ’‹–ƒŽ‹œ‡† ‘ DzŠ›’‡”•‘‹  Š›’‡ǡdz –Š‡ •‹‰‹ˆ‹ ƒ– ”‹•‡ ‹ Conclusion •’‡ —Žƒ–‹‘•ƒ†Š›’‡”„‘Ž‹ †‡’‹ –‹‘•‘ˆŠ›’‡”•‘‹ ™‡ƒ’‘•ǤŠ‹ƒǯ• ’—„Ž‹ †‹•’Žƒ›‘ˆ–Š‡ Ǧͳ͹ƒ–‹–•ƒ–‹‘ƒŽƒ›’ƒ”ƒ†‡ƒŽŽ„—–’”‘ Žƒ‹‡† ˜‹ –‘”›‹–Š‡ ”ƒ ‡Ǥ‡†‹ƒ”‡’‘”–•’‹ ‡†—’‘–Š‹•ǡƒ‘— ‹‰–Šƒ–  犊犌 0LFKDHO*ULIILQ+HDULQJWR5HFHLYH7HVWLPRQ\RQ$FFHOHUDWLQJ1HZ 7HFKQRORJLHVWR0HHW(PHUJLQJ7KUHDWV$SULO犇犎犈犆犇犎犇犉KWWSVZZZDUPHG VHUYLFHVVHQDWHJRYLPRPHGLDGRF犇犎犊犆B犆犊犇犎犇犎SGI 犊犍 $PDQGD0DFLDV犒&KLQDDQG5XVVLD$UH犐$JJUHVVLYHO\3XUVXLQJ犑+\SHUVRQLF :HDSRQVDQGWKH86&DQ犑W'HIHQGDJDLQVW7KHP7RS1XFOHDU&RPPDQGHU 6D\V犓&1%&0DUFK犈犆犈犆犇犎KWWSVZZZFQEFFRP犈犆犇犎犆犉犈犆FKLQDDQG UXVVLDDJJUHVVLYHO\DUHSXUVXLQJK\SHUVRQLFZHDSRQVJHQHUDOKWPO

52

 Š‹ƒ Šƒ† „‡ƒ–‡ –Š‡ ‹–‡† –ƒ–‡• ƒ† —••‹ƒ ‹ –Š‡‹” ’—”•—‹–•‘ˆ Š›’‡”•‘‹  ™‡ƒ’‘• „—– ‘ˆ–‡ ˆƒ‹Ž‹‰ –‘ †‡• ”‹„‡ –Š‡ •–”ƒ–‡‰‹  ‘” –‡ Š‹ ƒŽ†‹ˆˆ‡”‡ ‡•‹–Š‡•›•–‡•‡ƒ Šƒ–‹‘‹•†‡˜‡Ž‘’‹‰Ǥ ‹˜‡–Š‡ ’‡” ‡’–‹‘ ‘ˆ Š›’‡”•‘‹  ™‡ƒ’‘• ƒ• ƒ ‹˜‹ ‹„Ž‡ ‡š–Ǧ‰‡‡”ƒ–‹‘ ƒ•›‡–”‹ ™‡ƒ’‘ǡ–Š‹•†‡˜‡Ž‘’‡–•‡‡‡†Ž‹‡ƒ–‡•–‹‘›–Šƒ––Š‡  ‹• ƒ– Š‹‰ —’ ™‹–Šǡ ƒ† ‡˜‡ ‡ Ž‹’•‹‰ǡ –Š‡  ‹Ž‹–ƒ”›Ǥ Š‹• ’‡” ‡’–‹‘Š‡Ž’•–Š‡‡š’ƒ†‹–•”‡’—–ƒ–‹‘ƒ•ƒƒŒ‘”’‘™‡”‹•‹ƒ ƒ†„‡›‘†Ǥ 

•‹‰ –Š‡  Ǧͳ͹ –‘ ‡˜‹†‡ ‡ –Š‡ ǯ• •—’”‡ƒ › ƒŽ•‘ •‡”˜‡• –‘ •–”‡‰–Š‡–Š‡ǯ•‹ƒ‰‡ƒ†ƒ’’‡ƒŽƒ–Š‘‡™Š‹Ž‡ƒ†˜ƒ ‹‰–Š‡ ƒ””ƒ–‹˜‡–Šƒ–Š‹ƒ—†‡”–Š‡Šƒ•”‡–—”‡†ƒ•ƒ‰”‡ƒ–’‘™‡”–‘ˆ‡ƒ” ƒ† ”‡•’‡ –Ǥ Š‘—‰Š –Š‡  Ǧͳ͹ ‘” ƒ› ‘‡ ™‡ƒ’‘ ƒ‘– •Š‹ˆ– ’‡” ‡’–‹‘• ‘” –”ƒ•ˆ‘” –Š‡  ‘˜‡”‹‰Š–ǡ –Š‡› ‘–”‹„—–‡ –‘ –Š‡ Žƒ”‰‡”  ‡ˆˆ‘”–• –‘ ‹ ‹–‡ ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‹• ƒ† ‹’”‘˜‡ –Š‡ ‹Ž‹–ƒ”›ǯ• •–ƒ†‹‰Ǥ ˆ –Š‡•‡ • Š‡‡• ‘–‹—‡ –‘ •— ‡‡†ǡ –Š‡  ƒ› „‡ ‘‡ ‹ ”‡ƒ•‹‰Ž›„‘Ž†‹–Š‡ˆƒ ‡‘ˆ–Š‡‹–‡†–ƒ–‡•ƒ†‡”‹ ƒƒŽŽ‹‡•ǡˆ‘” ‡šƒ’Ž‡ ‹ ”‡ƒ•‹‰ ‹Ž‹–ƒ”› ’”‡•‡ ‡ ƒ† ƒ”ƒ‡– ‹ –Š‡ ’”ƒ–Ž› •Žƒ†•ƒ†•‡†‹‰ƒ˜ƒŽ˜‡••‡Ž•ƒ†Œ‡–•‡ƒ”‘”–Š”‘—‰Šƒ‹™ƒǯ•‹” ‡ˆ‡•‡ƒ† †‡–‹ˆ‹ ƒ–‹‘‘‡ȋ ȌǤͶͺ

Conclusion

Š‡  Ǧͳ͹ †‘‡• ‘– ‰”ƒ– –Š‡   •—††‡ ‡™ ƒ’ƒ„‹Ž‹–‹‡• –‘ ŠƒŽŽ‡‰‡‘”‹–•ƒŽŽ‹‡•ǯ‹Ž‹–ƒ”›–ƒ”‰‡–•Ǥ••—‹‰–Š‡ ‹• ƒ’ƒ„Ž‡ ‘ˆ‡˜ƒ†‹‰ǡŠ‘™‡˜‡”ǡ–Š‡‹••‹Ž‡†‘‡•‹ ”‡ƒ•‡–Š‡‡ˆˆ‹ ‹‡ ›ƒ† –Š”‡ƒ–‘ˆ–Š‡ ƒ†‹–•‡š‹•–‹‰‹••‹Ž‡•ǤŠ‡ Ǧͳ͹ƒ›‘–‰”‡ƒ–Ž› ƒŽ–‡”ƒ ‹ˆ‹ •–”ƒ–‡‰› ˆ‘” –Š‡•Š‘”––‡”ǡ „—–‹–”‡ƒ‹• ƒ’‘™‡”ˆ—Ž ™‡ƒ’‘ǡ „‘–Š ‹ ‘„ƒ– •‹–—ƒ–‹‘• ƒ† ƒ Žƒ”‰‡” ‘–‡š–Ǥ Š‡ Ž‘‘‹‰  犊犎 犒0LOLWDU\DQG6HFXULW\'HYHORSPHQWV,QYROYLQJWKH3HRSOH犑V5HSXEOLFRI&KLQD 犈犆犇犏犓S犇犋

53

 –Š”‡ƒ–‘ˆƒƒ•›‡–”‹ ƒ–‹Ǧ•–”‹‡ǡ‡Šƒ ‡†„›‡ˆˆ‘”–•–‘ ƒ’‹–ƒŽ‹œ‡‘DzŠ›’‡”•‘‹ Š›’‡ǡdz ‘—Ž†ƒ‹†–Š‡”‡’—–ƒ–‹‘ƒ†’‡” ‡’–‹‘ ‘ˆ –Š‡  ƒ† —Ž–‹ƒ–‡Ž› •–”‡‰–Š‡ ‹–• ƒ„‹Ž‹–› –‘ †‡–‡” ”‡‰‹‘ƒŽ ‹–‡”˜‡–‹‘‹ƒ”‡‰‹‘ƒŽ ‘ˆŽ‹ –Ȅ–Š‡‘•–‹’‘”–ƒ–’—”’‘•‡‘ˆ–Š‡ ™‡ƒ’‘ǯ• †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡–Ǥ Š‡ • ‘’‡ ‘ˆ –Š‡  Ǧͳ͹ ƒ† ‹–• ‹Š‡”‡– ŠƒŽŽ‡‰‡ –‘   ‹ –Š‡ ƒ ‹ˆ‹  ‹†‹ ƒ–‡ ƒ ‰ƒ‹ ˆ‘” Š‹ƒǯ• ƒ –‹˜‡ †‡ˆ‡•‡•–”ƒ–‡‰›Ǥ–‹Ž–Š‡‹–‡†–ƒ–‡•†‡˜‡Ž‘’•ƒ†‡“—ƒ–‡Š›’‡”•‘‹  ™‡ƒ’‘• †‡ˆ‡•‡ •›•–‡•ǡ ƒ •–”ƒ–‡‰‹  ”‡•’‘•‡ ˆ‘” –Š‡ ™‡ƒ’‘ǡ ‘” ‡‰ƒ‰‡•‹–ƒŽ•™‹–Š–Š‡Š‹‡•‡‰‘˜‡”‡–ǡ–Š‡ Ǧͳ͹™‹ŽŽ’”‘˜‹†‡–Š‡  ƒ”‡‰‹‘ƒŽ–Š”‡ƒ–„‘‘•–ƒ•ƒ ƒ’ƒ„Ž‡‘Ǧ— Ž‡ƒ”†‡–‡””‡–ǤŠ‡  Ǧͳ͹ ™‹ŽŽ ƒŽ•‘ ‡”–ƒ‹Ž› •‡”˜‡ ƒ• ƒ •–‡’’‹‰ •–‘‡ ˆ‘” ˆ—”–Š‡”  †‡˜‡Ž‘’‡–ǡ‹†‹ ƒ–‹‰–Š‡™‘””›‹‰’‘–‡–‹ƒŽˆ‘”ˆ—–—”‡ƒ”•”ƒ ‹‰ ƒ†‡• ƒŽƒ–‹‘ǤŠ‘—‰Š–Š‡‹–”‘†— –‹‘‘ˆ–Š‹•‘‡™‡ƒ’‘ƒŽ‘‡™‹ŽŽ ‘– Šƒ‰‡ –Š‡  †‘Ǧƒ ‹ˆ‹  •–ƒ ‡ ‘˜‡”‹‰Š–ǡ Š‹ƒ —†‘—„–ƒ„Ž› Š‘’‡•–Š‡ Ǧͳ͹‹•ƒ•‹‰‹ˆ‹ ƒ–•–‡’–‘™ƒ”† ‘–”‘Ž‘˜‡”–Š‡ƒ ‹ˆ‹ Ǥ

” Cameron Freeman is a research intern at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in partnership with the US-Taiwan Business Council. He is a rising freshman at Yale University interested in international relations and security issues in East Asia.

”

54

 6XEPLVVLRQ

Š‡Œ‘—”ƒŽ‘ˆDefense Security Brief‹•–Š‡‘ˆˆ‹ ‹ƒŽ’—„Ž‹ ƒ–‹‘‘ˆ–Š‡ •–‹–—–‡ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ‡ˆ‡•‡ƒ†‡ —”‹–›‡•‡ƒ” Šȋ ȌǤ”–‹ Ž‡• ‡š’”‡•• –Š‡ ƒ—–Š‘”•ǯ ˜‹‡™• ‘Ž› ƒ† ƒ”‡ ‘– ‡ ‡••ƒ”‹Ž› –Š‡ ‘ˆˆ‹ ‹ƒŽ ’‘Ž‹ ›‘ˆ ‘”–Š‡‡†‹–‘”•‘ˆ–Š‡Œ‘—”ƒŽǤ 

Defense Security Briefƒ ‡’–•‘”‹‰‹ƒŽƒ”–‹ Ž‡•ǡ”‡˜‹‡™ǡ ‘‡–•ƒ† ƒ•‡ •–—†‹‡•Ǥ ‘–‡’‘”ƒ”› ‹–‡”ƒ–‹‘ƒŽ ƒˆˆƒ‹”•ǡ †‡ˆ‡•‡ǡ •‡ —”‹–›ǡ †‘Ǧƒ ‹ˆ‹  ‹••—‡• ƒ† ’‘Ž‹ › ”‡˜‹‡™• ƒ”‡ ™‡Ž ‘‡†Ǥ Š‡ ‡†‹–‘”‹ƒŽ ”‡˜‹‡™’”‘ ‡•• ƒ–ƒ‡—’–‘–Š”‡‡‘–Š•ǤŠ‡‡†‹–‘”‹ƒŽ”‡•‡”˜‡•–Š‡ ”‹‰Š– –‘ ƒ ‡’–ǡ ”‡Œ‡ – ‘” ƒŽ–‡” ƒŽŽ ‡†‹–‘”‹ƒŽ ƒ† ƒ†˜‡”–‹•‹‰ ƒ–‡”‹ƒŽ •—„‹––‡† ˆ‘” ’—„Ž‹ ƒ–‹‘Ǥ ƒ—• ”‹’–• •Š‘—Ž† ƒ††”‡•• –‘ ™–Ǥ›ƒ‰̷‹†•”Ǥ‘”‰Ǥ–™‹‹ ”‘•‘ˆ–‘”†ˆ‘”ƒ–Ǥ ƒ”† ‘’‹‡•™‹ŽŽ‘– „‡ƒ ‡’–‡†„›Defense Security BriefǤ 

‘•—„‹–ƒƒ”–‹ Ž‡ǡƒ—–Š‘”•ƒ”‡ƒ†˜‹•‡†–‘ˆ‘ŽŽ‘™–Š‡•‡‰—‹†‡Ž‹‡•ǣ 

Ɣƒ—• ”‹’–ƒ”‡ƒ”‘—†ͳǡͷͲͲǦͶǡͷͲͲ™‘”†•Ž‘‰‹ Ž—†‹‰ˆ‘‘–‘–‡•Ǥ 

Ɣ›–ƒ„Ž‡•‘” Šƒ”–••Š‘—Ž†„‡•—’’Ž‹‡†‹•‡’ƒ”ƒ–‡ˆ‹Ž‡•ǡ‹†‡ƒŽŽ›‘– Ž‹‡†–‘–‡š–ƒ”‘—†‹–Ǥ 

Ɣ ‘‘–‘–‡”‡ˆ‡”‡ ‡••Š‘—Ž†„‡ ‘’Ž‡–‡ƒ†‹ Ž—†‡ˆ‹”•–ƒ†Žƒ•– ƒ‡•‘ˆƒ—–Š‘”•ǡ–‹–Ž‡•‘ˆƒ”–‹ Ž‡•ȋ‡˜‡ˆ”‘‡™•’ƒ’‡”•Ȍǡ’Žƒ ‡‘ˆ ’—„Ž‹ ƒ–‹‘ǡ ’—„Ž‹•Š‡”ǡ ‡šƒ – ’—„Ž‹ ƒ–‹‘ †ƒ–‡•ǡ ˜‘Ž—‡ ƒ† ‹••—‡ —„‡”ȋ‹ˆˆ”‘ƒŒ‘—”ƒŽȌƒ†’ƒ‰‡—„‡”•Ǥ‡„•‘—” ‡••Š‘—Ž† ‹ Ž—†‡ ‘’Ž‡–‡•ƒ† •‹ˆƒ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„Ž‡Ǥ 

Ɣ  •Š‘”– ƒ—–Š‘”ǯ• „‹‘‰”ƒ’Š› ‘ˆ ˆ‘—” ‘” ˆ‹˜‡ Ž‹‡• •Š‘—Ž† ƒŽ•‘ „‡ ‹ Ž—†‡†ǤŠ‹•‹ˆ‘”ƒ–‹‘™‹ŽŽƒ’’‡ƒ”ƒ––Š‡Žƒ•–’ƒ‰‡‘ˆ–Š‡ƒ”–‹ Ž‡Ǥ 







‘–‡ǣDefense Security Brief ƒ”‡ƒ˜ƒ‹Žƒ„Ž‡ˆ‘”†‘™Ž‘ƒ†ˆ”‘ ǯ• ™‡„•‹–‡ǡ‹†•”Ǥ‘”‰Ǥ–™Ǥ



55  56