LOOKING BACK. a Life of Statistical Ecology (2Nd Enlarged Edition)

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LOOKING BACK. A life of statistical ecology (2nd Enlarged Edition)

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László Orlóci Western University, London, Canada

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LOOKING BACK A life of statistical ecology

LOOKING BACK tells a personal story that begins in the ‘30s, a time of peace, order and prosperity for the author’s family, and ends in 2012 when the idea of the book was first conceived. The story offers recollections of the pre-World War II period, the war years and their aftermath under Soviet occupation and ruthless dictatorial rule, the author’s involvement in the 1956 Hungarian revolution that failed, and finally freedom and academic carrier in Canada. A substantial part of the narrative portrays the author’s professional life framed by two questions. How did statistical ecology affect him? And, how did he, a forest engineer, affect statistical ecology? Seventeen sections take up selected topics interconnected but not in strict chronological order.

I KNOW I am narrating a different journey, but not one I would consider exceptional in the annals of my Alumni, the Sopron Forest Engineers. True, the responsibilities were demanding, the workdays long, and deadlines loomed like Damocles’ sword. Yet, the sailing was reasonably smooth. How else could had it be? I had the unfailing support of Márta Mihály behind me every step of the way, and daughter Martha’s ever-loving cheerful presence on my side. I sincerely thank them and offer to share with them all recognition that came my way.

Márta Mihály BSF, DFE and Martha B. Orlóci HBA, Honolulu 1986.

ON COVER FRONT … Rescue on high seas in the North Pacific, September 2014. Its single mast broken by hurricane force winds, sails gone and small engine idle without fuel. Still on even keel, the catamaran drifted for many days with men on board. When Royal Caribbean’s Rhapsody of the Seas has come to dead stop a short distance from them, we were 1200 nautical miles from nearest land, about half way between San Diego, California and Honolulu, Hawaii. Men standing on the left hull received a large ovation from passengers lining the ship’s decks several rows deep high above them. My photograph captures the moment of Rhapsody’s tender pulling up alongside the disabled craft. Strong trade wind and agreeable sea currents compensated for time lost on the 200 extra nautical miles in detour. We docked at Hilo harbour of the Big Island in Hawaii on schedule.

COVER BACK … Granite surface from the Canadian Shield. Striations scratched into the rock show direction of glacial ice flow 16+ k years ago.

Virtual map of the emergent energy-based entropy cloud in a Coquihalla forest complex at Hope on British Colum- bia Mainland. Vertical scale in nats. Belt transect of 36 stands is portrayed. Energy-based entropy is a proxy scalar for the potential energy level in the complex. See page 166, https://www.amazon.com/dp/153716788X

LOOKING BACK A life of statistical ecology

László Orlóci DFE, FRSC, MHAS Western University, London, Canada

2rd edition

SCADA Publishing, Canada – 2019

Reference: Orlóci, L. 2019. Looking back. A life of statistical ecology. 3nd ed. Scada Pub- lishing, Canada. Online Edition: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1796403148

Shoreline and Mokoli’i (Chinaman’s Hat, top) at low tide on Oahu as seen in the picture folded in the direction of the centroid into two dimensions.

Technical assistance: Kathryn Orlóci-Goodison, BSCEM

ISBN: 9781796403145 V20190605 2nd ed

Find further information: https://sites.google.com/site/statisticalecology/ https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Laszlo_Orloci/

Address all communications to: [email protected]

5 | Looking bac k

CONTENTS symposium broadcast from the Univer- sity of Guelph’s studio on June 27, 2012.1 Introduction ...... 5 The symposium was organised by Pro- Growing up ...... 7 fessors Madhur Anand and Kate S. He to At university ...... 11 honour me on my 80th birthday. I offer to Post-doctoral training ...... 13 Madhur and Kate my sincerest thanks. On tenure-track in academe ...... 15 The magnitude of the effort to put the Sabbaticals ...... 17 symposium on the air surprised me. The Early lessons ...... 18 symposium included participants scat- Debated fundamentals ...... 22 tered over several continents. I salute The vegetation stand ...... 22 the organisers and panel members for a Classification ...... 22 job well done. Panel members included Reductionism ...... 23 Professors Madhur Anand, Enrico Feoli, Norm Kenkel, Kate He, Valério De Patta Syndynamics ...... 23 Pillar, János Podani, and Otto Wildi. I ap- Diversity ...... 26 plaud each for the exceptional career I Diversity partitions ...... 26 witnessed in progress after completion Beyond diversity theory ...... 28 of studies with us at the University of Tüxen’s symposia ...... 29 Western Ontario. Italian connection...... 30 I thought to make the symposium my A visit to Professor Josias Braun- last project in Science and considered re- Blanquet ...... 34 tirement. But it did not happen that way. My take on synthesis ...... 35 Márta’s birthday present “The dreams Trajectory analyses ...... 36 that stuff is made of” and a student’s Governance rules ...... 37 question from Brazil changed my mind. Prologue ...... 37 “The dreams …” is a book edited by Ste- Appendix ...... 40 phen Hawking. It contains, as Hawking himself puts it, “the most astounding papers on quantum physics”- on 1071 tightly set pages. Introduction When I opened “The dreams …” I wondered what a forest engineer turned statistical ecologist can draw from With Márta on Makena Road near La Perouse Bay on Maui in top papers on quantum physics. I 1986. GPS: 20.604834, - found it out after reading the very 156.424977 first paper, following Hawking’s masterful introduction. The arti- Statistical ecology? What cle was penned by Max Planck is it? Simply stated, a set and published in 1901 under the of powerful conceptual title “On the law of the distribu- tools designed to verify tion of entropy in the normal the expected and to re- spectrum”. In this, entropy is en- veal the unexpected in ergy-based, expressible in sim- natural complexity. plest by -k ln P . The term normal I am presenting an ex- spectrum implies the Normal fre- tended version of my talk at the tele- quency distribution of energy units, the László Orlóci | 6 quanta, over the resonators of a com- But the temptation was too great. For plex. Max Planck puts energy-based en- my excuses I mention the success of the tropy and the Normal distribution to- articles I completed on SQE, particularly gether and comes up with the idea that the one I have done in 2015 under the energy-based entropy is proxy for potential title “The energy-based entropy struc- energy. ture of natural plant communities. Causes, measurement, statistics”. 4 It Planck’s article reminded me of a ques- have attracted more immediate reads tion I posed to myself in 1969: on ResearchGate than any other of my “What can I do with a scalar in form as simple uploaded work. In total, the count of as -ln P in studies of ecological diversity?” reads adds up to a round 1100 on the first day of publication. When I posed the question, I had familiarity with Planck’s name and I knew I chose the title “Looking back. How I be- about the convertibility of energy and come a statistical ecologist”. I planned entropy. But I did not associate my prob- to make the presentation personal, ex- lem with energy-based entropy. I was in- pecting that someday my story will inter- terested to solve an information theo- est the youth in the family. For this I had retical problem in ecological diversity on Márta’s example to follow. She gives her the level of disorder-based entropy. I reason in the book “Reflections”5: discussed the problem with David “… What inspires me to open my soul and GoodalI at G.P. Patil’s symposium in the mind so wide for all to see the “I” in me? Age same year at Yale. David used the same was an incentive. But more directly, my form -ln P in his work with Ferenc E. Bi- granddaughters Kathryn and Ruth Orlóci- net on a probabilistic similarity index. Goodison expressed interest in my family We did not see relevance for -ln P. roots and especially in me at my younger Pressed by time, I let the idea pass. years. I felt elated that they want to know me better. The only possible way to fulfil their The student’s question came from my wish is to share my story.” good friend Valério Pillar’s lab at the Uni- The occasion to put into practice Márta’s versidad Federal do Rio Grande do Sul in example arose sooner than I expected. Porto Alegre, Brazil. I spent much pro- My granddaughters Kathryn and Ruth ductive time in Valério’s lab doing re- Orlóci-Goodison were seating in the stu- search and teaching. The student whose dio audience in 2012 with their mother, name I lost, mentioned plans to study Martha Orlóci, in the company of Ma- community energetic as I understood dur’s and Kate’s family members, faculty within the calorific flow frame offered by and students. 6 The present account ecological practice. I thought of it and I has two main parts. The first is telling knew what I should be doing with scalar my story from childhood to 1969. -k ln P. 2 I made it the centre piece of Why 1969 and not some other year my decade-long project on Statistical for my watershed year? It happened Quantum Ecology (SQE).3 in that year at Kings College in Cam- The time I spent on developing SQE be- bridge that the first time I was intro- came the main reason for years of delay duced as statistical ecologist. I did in completing this account of the Guelph not care much for the designation. I speech. I knew time is pressing and did not consider myself a statistical Márta too wanted me not to take more ecologist. I shall explain why. The time out on ad hock projects, like SQE. 7 | Looking bac k second part tells the story how statis- 29, 1941. My mother was preparing tical ecology affected me, a forest en- to serve Sunday dinner, a midday gineer, and how I affected statistical feast with plenty of my favourite ecology. things. We three kids were seating Growing up with father at the dinner table listen- ing to the 12 o’ clock news. I still see I am from a military family. We lived a my father’s face turning from jovial migratory life. Whenever my father’s to expressionless then to a sardonic unit moved to a new location we moved small. It took a few moments before too. This happened with regularity at he said something like this: “This least once every two years. mad man. What a colossal mistake.” The prospect of pulling up stakes in one The leading story that day shattered town and moving to another always ex- any hopes that Hungary will not be cited me. Every new place offered a new drawn into Germany’s war. The re- universe for me to discover. But the part gent of Hungary, Miklós Horthy, I which fascinated me most of that uni- later learned already in German cus- verse, and still does, is outside the urban tody, read Hungary’s declaration of environment. war on the Allies. I remember well the frequent visits I We left Szilágysomlyó early summer in took with friends as a 6-year old to the 1942, moved to Kiskúnhalas close to the sand dunes just behind the house we Serbian border on the Great Plane be- rented in Nyírbátor. We moved there tween the rivers Danube and Tisza. For from Karcag, the first stop after Eszter- me, the move meant changing scenery gomtábor where I was born in family from mountains and riverside, to flat- housing on the Base in 1932. land with reed-swamps, sand dunes and I was 8 when we arrived at the next stop, alkali flats. Father rented a house on a Szilágysomlyó, in the mountains on the large property at 21 Bükkönyös street, river Kraszna on our migratory path. My close to school and market. We were father rented a corner house at 2 Szent short walking distance to reed-swamps, László street. For me, the house was an sand dunes, alkali flats, and planted for- ideal choice, large backyard, close to the est patches, across the rail tracks at the Beech forests on the Magura at one end south end of our street. Father unit’s of our street and to the riverside of the barracks were outside town on the same Kraszna at the other end. I remember lo- side. Every morning a driver picked him cal people, pointing high up to the up, and at the end of the day brought patches of cloud touching the Magura, him home. and saying questioningly something like Kiskúnhalas was a summer-winter won- this: “Uite, Magura fumează o eava”. derland for active kids like me. We did it And when they sensed we have problem all, kayaking, fishing, swimming, and with the language, some would repeat skating. Swimming was a challenge at the same thing in Magyar: “Nézzétek, first, but I learnt from others to keep to pipál a Magura”. In loose translation the clear water. There I could see the “Look, the Magura is smoking the pipe”. leaches and submerged alga beds to The winds of war were already blowing. avoid them. We took to the skating trails I remember clearly the events of June László Orlóci | 8 in season which crisscrossed the dense Soon, my colleagues were ready to start reed swamp. the day and we left town to that day’s destination further south near Tompa. I returned to the old house in Kiskún- István (Pista) Beliczay, a fellow forest en- halas 56 years after we left town in 1944. gineer and my classmate from Sopron, The visit was not planned, just happened waited for us. He offered to be our guide on a field excursion with colleagues from on visit to two remarkable sites. The first MTA (HAS) on the Kiskunság. We took is Pista’s “Memorial Forest”, his retire- rooms one night in the city at Motel ment project on 40 hectares of his own Penny. In conversation with the proprie- land. István established it to serve as tor the next morning I mentioned to her lasting reminder for all who visits the that my family once lived in the city on place that there were two revolutions, Bükkönyös street. She responded 1948 and 1956, which defined the Hun- “Umm”. I mentioned the house number, garian character more than anything 21. Her face changed to a broad smile. “I else in modern times. In 1848 the Hun- own that house”, she said. “It is just garians rose against Austria’s domi- around the corner from here”. I did not nance. The 1848 revolution was victori- realise we were so close. We walked ous, but the 2-year long war of inde- over. I recognized the house but felt dis- pendence that followed failed. The 1956 oriented. I turned to face the house revolution, in which Pista was very much closed my eyes and pointed to my right. involved, was fought against a suppres- “We had the butcher shop and grocery sive communist regime and the Soviet store that way and beyond the football occupation forces in Hungary. It is so field”, I continued describing the inner ironic that in both fights Hungarian vic- arrangements of the three-segmented tory was denied by an overwhelming backyards. “I remember the large or- Russian force that entered the conflict chard fenced off back from the middle on the tyrants’ side. yard. My favourites were the plums, peaches and later in the season the deli- The second site is called Őrdögárok cious Kiffer pears. We had so much pear (Devil’s trench). It is a fossil meander of on the trees, we could not use them all. the mighty Danube from the 5th Century My Mother sold the surplus to the AD, long buried by sediments. Folk leg- wholesale buyer just diagonally opposite end and local historians identify on the street. We had to take the pears Őrdögárok as the site of a 5th Century to his tent setup on the nearby football Hun city where Attila the king of Huns field.” ruled in his final years. In broad outlines the story spanned is not unlike Géza Gár- The good lady smiled while I was remi- donyi’s account in his 1901 historic novel niscing. “The property is still more or less “A láthatatlan ember” 7. In English, “The that way. The grocery store and the invisible man [within us]”. The locals fer- butcher shop are gone. The football field vently believe in the existence of a Hun is built up residential area” she said and city at Őrdögárok where Attila planed his continued. “There is one Kiffer pear tree last two epic campaigns against the Ro- left, probably the last in the city, if not in man Empire. The first culminated in the the region”. We walked back to the mo- 451 in the battle on the Catalaunian tel talking. She wanted to know every- plains near the city of Orleans in 451. At- thing about life in Canada. tila’s Huns and allies faced the roman le- 9 | Looking bac k gions and their allies lead by Flavius Ae- have reached Szeged on the east side of tius, Attila’s political and military mentor the Tisza a sort distance east to Kiskún- in his youth. The battle ended suddenly halas. My father’s unit was fighting the with the forces of Aetius leaving the field Russians somewhere. The core moved under the dark of the night. The second to a new location further west in Trans- campaign a year later saw the Huns danubia, and a month or so later to Am- cross the Julian Alps. Aetius’ Roman le- stetten in Austria. gions could not stop them from taking a Achtung! series of Roman cities, starting with the Achtung! strongest, Aquileia. Die luftlagemeldung!8 -- The local historians believe that Attila sounded the message on the radio the and his Huns returned to Őrdögárok morning after our hasty debarkation the from the 452 Roman campaign. Attila night before from the military train at died there in 453 and had river burial the Amstetten Banhof9. Our apartment nearby in a meander of the Danube. I was on the 2nd floor, a single room of the asked Pista what he thinks, where did Volksschule 10 on Preinsbacher Strasse the Huns go after Attila’s death? “Most near Don Bocce Kirche11. of them stayed. Those are the Magyars”. The Banhof itself was in bad shape when At about the time when we arrived in we arrived. Bomb craters and torn up Kiskúnhalas, the consequences of the rails, were in different stages of repair. family’s migratory existence started to The American bombers were visiting the show in my school records. Every time city for some time but limited bombing we arrived in a new town, the kids from to the Banhof area. The Germans rebuilt military families had to face the familiar the main lines after each raid. problem of adjusting to a new city, and The warning on the radio continued “… especially to a new school environment. Graz, Winer Neustadt, Vienna, St. Pöl- It was easier for me to keep together ten, Amstetten …” as the air armada pro- with old friends, than to mix with ‘lo- gressed on its bombing run. We were cals’. I do not remember having had a lo- told when we hear Amstetten the sirens cal friend in town for the two years we sound and we should go to the shelter. spent in Kiskunhalas. ‘Locals’ were out- Our assigned shelter was a vast tunnel side in my world populated with people system under the adjacent highland with from military families. It is quite reveal- entrances, one adjacent to the backyard ing that I could not have enough of read- of the school at the end of Schulstrasse ing stories about field marshal Rommel on the south east side. By 10 o’clock the and his Africa campaign or stories of the American bombers appeared, dropped daring Otto Skorzeny of Gran Sasso their deadly load, and left. We got used fame. My father and fellow officers be- to the routine so much so that my came my role model, and I started to see brother, István, and I did not go to the my life in the military. It was so easy not tunnel on the sound of the sirens. We to put myself to learning Latin, History, climbed up on the steep slope to the Mathematic and other academic sub- plateau used only by farmers and graz- jects. ing herds. We had full view of the Banhof I was entering seventh grade in Septem- and surrounding city from there. I re- ber 1944, the 3rd year in our 8-year member clearly one day we were ob- Gimnázium system. The Soviet forces László Orlóci | 10 serving the bombing. I trained my eye- jubilation of the citizenry. Not getting sight on an individual bomb and fol- closer may have saved our lives. I still re- lowed it all the way down to its target. It member well the festive atmosphere. hit the base of a tall building, lifted it up Then the unexpected happened. Russian and the building disappeared in a cloud aircraft flying low from the east started of dust. When the dust cleared I saw to strafe the British with heavy cannon only mound of rubble where the build- fire. My brother and I ran to a narrow ing used to stand. I imagined what that side street for protection. On the way bomb could do to our school. It almost back to our place we were wondering happened in the last raid by Russian what on earth was really happening. planes in early May 1945. The Russian aircrafts returned that One day when the siren started to sound evening. Father, mother, two sisters, my we had to go with the others to the tun- brother and I were sitting at the dinner nel. My father had good reason for not table in our second-floor unit when we letting us do otherwise. He heard the heard the engine noise of low-flying air- day before of plans for retreating forces craft. Just at that moment a tremendous taking up position on the plateau. That blast shook the building and shattered day the planes bombs were falling on the windows, throwing us on the floor. the plateau too on the Banhof side. It was a Russian plane dropping its ordi- nance on the Roman Catholic nunnery The front was moving closer to Amstet- diagonally opposite to us. Father was ten. We could hear the heavy artillery certain, our building was the intended fire and see the flashes overnight from target. It was a military depot. the direction of St. Pölten. I remember my father was suggesting to my mother Next day my brother and I went out to that we should be ready to move on with see what is happening in town. The Brit- others of his unit to Linz. He thought it ish were gone, Russian heavy tanks and will be better if we were in the western infantry were everywhere in the city. zone when the fighting ends. My mother There were no welcoming crowds on the became hysterical. She could not bear streets. The people stayed indoors and the thought that we may not be able to waited for instructions what they should return to Hungary. We stayed in Amstet- do. It was then that I had my first en- ten. counter, one-to-one, with a Russian soldier. It cost me my boy scout packet The end of the war came for us on a knife, a compass, and my bicycle. He bright day of May 1945. The city took them all. When I tried to resist, he changed hands from German to British, kicked me in the pants, and quickly rode and then to Russian. The German forces off, perhaps with more looting in mind. held the Russians back, but they did not It was ridiculous to see the grown man put up much resistance to the British. with a machinegun across his chest rid- Their light armour entered the city with- ing my ¾ size bicycle. We were locked out a shot fired. As soon as we heard of into the Russian zone of Austria. the British in town, my brother and I went down to see them. By the time we The family returned to Hungary late May arrived it was impossible to get close to 1945 and settled down in Nagyréde, my the British neatly lined up along one side mother’s paternal village. It is a delight- of the main square. They were throwing ful little place of 3000 inhabitants, on candies to the kids and just enjoying the the foothills of the Mátra Mountain. It 11 | Looking bac k happened there that one day I went knowing well that it is the price the Mag- down to the main highway, 3 kilometres yars had to pay to survive as a nation south of my grandparents’ place. I state in the hearth of Europe. wanted to see the endless column of So- Sopron was already a city under Roman viet soldiers on horse-drawn wagons of rule but gained ultimate fame among all kinds taken from the civilian popula- Hungarians in 1921. Sopron was given tion in Austria and Hungary, loaded with the title “Hungary’s Most Loyal City” loot of all sorts, moving East. I thought when the citizens voted overwhelmingly back of the Russian soldier I met in Am- to stay with Hungary, given the choice to stetten. Perhaps he was one of the driv- become part of Austria. ers, taking my bicycle home with other loot. I hated him for what he has done. The Forestry Gimnázium offered a 4- Then I thought he may have kids, per- year course in forestry science, physical haps my age he had not seen for years sciences, and humanities, in a semi-mili- and wanted to surprise them with some tary boarding school setting. I found the present. environment just made for me. I liked the school’s student-oriented atmos- I went back to school after missing one phere, the structured life, rich academic academic year. I did poorly. Life did not program, compulsory summer jobs, and start to turn around for me academically the prospect of guaranteed intermedi- until 1948. It happened that year ate middle management-level employ- through the good graces of my godfa- ment in the forestry profession. I applied ther, Géza Dolentz, a forester himself myself to my studies and started to get and my father’s comrade in arms in good marks. Four fantastic years later I World War I, that I was selected to take graduated with top marks in 1952. What the entrance examination for admission a time it was for my father to see my rec- to the Forestry Gimnázium, a technical ord book. My brother, who was always secondary boarding school in the his- top in his class, and already at university toric city of Esztergom. I did well on the studying hydraulic engineering, my two test and was admitted to the school in sisters and mother, all agreed with fa- September 1948. In 1950 the school ther - I may get somewhere with my life. moved to Sopron, on the piedmont of the Alps, the home town of the Faculty At university of Forest Engineering where I started university in 1952. My outstanding graduation record from When I arrived in Esztergom, I was re- the Forestry Gimnázium guaranteed my turning to my birth place. It is an ancient acceptance to the Faculty of Forest Engi- city upriver from Visegrád on the Dan- neering at the University of Sopron. The ube. Esztergom was the seat of the first university had three faculties at that Christian king of Hungary, Vajk, the son time. Forest Engineering is still in So- of Géza, who took the Christian name pron. Mining and Oil Engineering moved István at his coronation in 1001. The to other location in Hungary. Magyars did not take kindly to Christian- I began the 5-year academic program in ity. They resisted the fervent brutality by September 1952. I brought with me which their original culture was being basic familiarity with finite mathematics, decimated. But István forced the issue linear algebra, and of all things, parallel projective (or descriptive) geometry. These gave me a leg up in university László Orlóci | 12 mathematics and the engineering Márta and I were actively involved and courses. I also had good background in expected reprisals. We decided to leave general botany, floristics, plant system- for Austria. On the way, I proposed to atics and, of course, in environmental Márta and she accepted. Months later, and forestry science. I felt equipped to with the Sopron group already in Can- do well as I immersed myself into the 5- ada, we got married in Abbotsford on year program. March 17, 1957. The group became an Academic Division of the Faculty of For- 1952 turned out to be a defining year in estry at the University of British Colum- my life for yet another reason. It hap- bia in Vancouver. Márta has written pened on the first day at the University about this at length in an article “Invited that I caught site of a spectacularly beau- immigrants: the Sopron saga”.12 Her pa- tiful, self-confident class mate, a for- per, a historic document for both the Ca- ester’s daughter, whose name was nadian and Hungarian Governments, Márta Mihály, just before mine in alpha- narrates the details as it traces the steps. betical order. I found myself assigned to The saga began with the Canadian Gov- the same study group for labs, field ex- ernment’s invitation delivered to the So- ercises, tutorials, and other group activ- pron group by the good man, the Right ities. The years went by. We progressed Honourable J. Pickersgill, Minister of Ca- in our studies and our relationship grew. nadian Immigration. We were at that We were entering the first semesters of time in Ferienhort on the Wolfgangsee the 5th year in September 1956 when the in Salzkammergut in Austria. Most of the unexpected happened. The Hungarian group accepted the invitation, we were people’s voice against the suppressive among them. Soon we boarded one of Soviet-installed regime, simmering for CP’s Princess class luxury liners in Liver- months, reached crescendo. The com- pool for winter crossing the North Atlan- munist regime reacted with firing into tic. We left on Liverpool New Year’s Eve the demonstrating crowds in Budapest. and arrived in St. John, New Brunswick, This triggered the peoples’ nation-wide on January 8, 1957. revolution on October 23, 1956. The re- The invitation of a large academic group, gime collapsed, but freedom was short including students, professors, some leaved. The Soviets retreated first, re- support personal and families, and al- grouped and on November 4th re-in- lowing the group to continue function- vaded Hungary with a fresh force of ing as an academic unit at UBC, was an more than 60,000 Soviet troops unparalleled event in the annals of Cana- equipped with thousands of heavy dian universities. The story attracted at- tanks. They crushed the revolution with tention from news organizations across brutality to teach a lesson. Ironically, the World. TIME and other major news and so typical of the suppressor, his sol- magazines published lengthy articles ders were not told whom and why they about the group. ‘Sopron’ became a were fighting. Many thought they were well-recognized name any where we finishing the last act of the 2nd world war went. Gyurka Leskó my classmate and I against the remnants of the Nazi forces. found this out in Aleza Lake, a small It is revealing that the troops were dec- hamlet eastbound from Prince George orated with the same medal as the on the Upper Fraser Road in central Brit- troops received after taking Berlin in ish Columbia. We were on our summer 1945. job at Aleza lake on the first job and first 13 | Looking bac k summer in Canada at the Experimental 2002 sums up my feelings and expresses Station of the Provincial Forest Service my deep respect for him. I paraphrase at Aleza Lake. One day we went to town what I have said: for supplies a few kilometres from the "I have learnt much from Professor Kraj- Experimental Station. The proprietor of ina in class, but he commanded my high- the store, standing at the counter with a est respect for his sense of freedom and recent issue of TIME in hands, looked up courage, outspoken nature, fairness to at us, then looked back to his magazine others, unusual liberality of mind, and of page and turned the magazine page in course, a special kind of humour. All who Gyurka’s direction and asked pointedly: knew him well should want me to men- “Is this you fellow on the picture?” tion his deep love for home land and his Gyurka answered ‘yes’. We shook hands, Czech nation, and important to his char- and with that became instant local ce- acter, his exemplary citizenship in his lebrities. adopted country for which he was made The Sopron story lingered on at Aleza a Companion of the Order of Canada.13 Lake for some time, just as it did in the headlines across the World, then inter- Post-doctoral training est faded. But luckily, our welcome lasted indefinitely in Canada. We were Two unexpected events steered me on the way to become young engineers closer to becoming statistical ecologists. determined to succeed. The historic rec- Still at UBC, sometime in the Autumn of ord shows the Sopron group did it with 1963, the department head of Botany, flying colours. Professor T.M.C. Taylor, asked me to drop by his office, as he had a sample In September 1957 we picked up our copy of a book that I may like to read. It studies at the University of British Co- was a copy of "Numerical Taxonomy" by lumbia where we left it off a year earlier Robert R. Sokal and Peter H.A. Sneath at the University of Sopron. Márta and I published in 1961 by W.H. Freeman. Pro- both graduated with the Bachelor of Sci- fessor Taylor knew my background quite ence degree in Forestry (BSF) from well. He also knew that I was doing some U.B.C. We received the document for multivariate statistical analysis in my our originally intended Forest Engineer graduate research. He told me he would Diploma (DFE) from our Sopron Alma gladly help me to get the necessary Mater decades later in Hungary. funds to support me on postdoctoral The demise of the communist dictator- training with Bob Sokal, if I were inter- ship was complete, and the Soviet occu- ested. Of course, I jumped on his offer, pation of Hungary ended in stages be- but I was not a trained taxonomist. I pre- tween 1989 and 1991. Hungary and its ferred post-doctoral training with Pro- peoples are free and thriving as rarely fessor Peter Greig-Smith in quantitative before. ecology at the University College at Ban- gor in the United Kingdom. I entered graduate school at UBC, completed MSc in 1961 and PhD in 1964, I knew about Professor Greig-Smith’s re- both under the guidance of Professor search interests from his 1957 book on Vladimir J. Krajina. I am grateful to his "Quantitative Ecology". His brand of memory. He taught his students more quantitative ecology appealed to me than Forest Ecology. The Ziva interview I more than Numerical Taxonomy. Appli- gave a decade ago in Porto Alegre in cation done, NATO science fellowship László Orlóci | 14 received, Márta and I rolled into Bangor process, P. Greig-Smith's seminal work in our Volkswagen on a bright Mayday in on the scales of vegetation pattern and 1964. Professor Peter Greig-Smith wel- environmental determinants in 1952, comed us in his densely populated lab. D.W. Goodall's 1959 paper on "ordination", and the W.T Williams and J.M. I wanted to experience all aspects of ex- Lambert papers on association analysis pertise in the lab. I decided to do a brief and other ecological topics in 1959. Sim- vegetation survey on the sand dunes of ulation modelling as an operational tool Newborough Warren on the Isle of An- was about to be introduced into plant glesey, a short drive from our rented ecological practice by David Goodall. home in Llanfair P.G. The survey kept me and sweet Márta in close contact with I certainly felt I could be original in my field botany and ecology, but often in work, and I knew how. Professor Greig- weather we would rather not have. Fre- Smith supported my choice of research quent gale-force winds and the usual topic. I did the research and completed low temperature and drizzling rain the manuscript in 1965 for 1966 publica- forced us to wear pullovers and other tion in the Journal of Ecology.14 Chosen protective gear. After about a month as a ISI Citation Classic, it was listed by work, we got the data I wanted. Eugene Garfield’s editor J.T. Barrett for portrayal in their 1986 volume on "Con- On the odd day, the skies would open temporary Classics in Science". over the sand dunes and we could see clearly the shores across Menai Strait in What made that paper a citation classic? the direction of Carnarvon Castle. Not Its seminal nature certainly helped. It far to the East, on the highland, is the provided an overview of ordination site of the 1st Century Roman auxiliary methods and suggested interesting in- fort of Segontium. From there we could novations, among them the RQ duality see the sand dunes of New Borough principle. This widened the utility of Warren visible on clear days by unaided eigenanalysis, the mathematical core of eye. The Segontium story intrigued parsimonious ordinations, such as Prin- Márta very much. We were surprised ciple Components Analysis, on the then what she managed to dig up in her read- available digital computers, such as our ings. She wondered if Plinius the 2nd - Elliott 803 available for us in Greig- who visited Segontium and mentioned Smith’s lab. Mona, the Isle of Anglesey, in his Natu- The use of the duality principle came ralis Historia - had seen the sand dune reasonably easy once I understood the system. As she found it out later, he problem to be solved. Simply stated, could not. Romans abandoned Segon- phytosociological data sets usually in- tium more than a thousand years before clude very large numbers of species rec- the sea-currents carried the sand in orded in a smaller or much smaller num- quantity to the Anglesey shores. ber of quadrats. The objective is to get By the time of our arrival in Bangor, the component scores for quadrats with less foundations of community level Statisti- calculations. I realised this can be done cal Ecology, often called Quantitative in the most parsimonious way if the Ecology or Mathematical Ecology, have product matrix is computed for the been laid. I mention a few examples that lesser number of quadrats. But to get I find typical of the era: A.S. Watt's 1947 what I wanted required computational work on plant community pattern and tricks that needed some familiarity with 15 | Looking bac k the linear matrix algebraic concept of ary. I had considerable overlap with Rob- characteristic equations. I worked it out ert (Mac) McIntosh who was on sabbati- in 1964 and solved the problem of per- cal leave from Notre Dame University in forming eigenanalysis on my huge New- the U.S. I had considerable overlap with borough Warren data set. I published it Pál (Pali) Juhász-Nagy, a British Council 1966. The solution’s concise description Fellow from Hungary, and Mike Austin, a is in a 1967 issue of Systematic Zool- research fellow from the U.K. It was dur- ogy.15 This is what I did: ing my Bangor year that I met the first I use letters R and Q to designate dual symmetric time Bob Sokal, Peter Sneath, Bill Wil- product matrices. Using the ecologist’s terminol- liams, David Goodall, and Mike Dale. ogy, R is a species-centred product moment matrix These people were in fact creating initial of p species and Q is a species-centred product mo- context in Quantitative Ecology and Nu- ment matrix of n relevés. As defined, R = A A ' and merical Taxonomy. With most, my pro- Q=A' A . In this A is the p x n data matrix centred fessional life intertwined for many years by rows (species). The characteristic equation of R to come. is AA'B=λB . Based on this we compute component scores for the n relevés, Y = A ' B . We can write On tenure-track in academe A'AA'B=λA'B . This is the same as writing A'AY=λY , which happened to be the characteristic equation of the product matrix Q. The compo- I took on tenure track position in 1965 at nent scores Y based on the Q matrix are thus the the University of Western Ontario (now same as the component scores based on the R ma- Western University) as assistant profes- trix. From there after, we could select the R matrix sor. My responsibilities included teach- when p << n or the Q matrix when p >> n without affecting the outcome. I first used the RQ-duality ing, research, and some administration. principle in 1964 in the code that I wrote for input I received research grants from NSERC in PCA to analyse our Newborough data set. The and some travel grants from the Univer- data set contained much more species than sity. I started to appear regularly at con- relevés. ferences, symposia, and workshops. I In 1969 I was invited to a group discus- liked Márta to come with me whenever sion in Kings College at Cambridge. Nich- she could, and this was not changed af- olas Jardine and Robin Sibson were pre- ter the birth of our daughter Martha Bar- senting, with great gusto, their results bara in 1966. Martha too came with us. on k-clustering in mathematical taxonomy. John Gower was there from As I progressed through the ranks, I Rothamsted Experimental Station in the could spend more time on the extramu- U.K. I found out then his interest in solv- ral research of my choice. One of the re- ing the same problem I solved very markable events of my career came simply and called it the RQ principle. He early at the numerical taxonomy confer- published a long paper on his solution ence in 1966 at the Universidad National problem in Biometrika in 1966, the same in Mexico City. Robert R. Sokal and F. year as I did the first paper on the sub- James Rohlf were organizers. This was ject, “Geometric models …”. my first one-on-one contact with Sokal, who did not remember me from Great I owe much to Peter Greig-Smith for the Britain, but knew about my Systematic opportunity he has given me to study Zoology paper already in process. Others quantitative ecology’s fundamentals in I met were in the fore wave of develop- his lab, and to meet the many talented ments in the new field, or at my stage, people in this field. I count among them but ambitious and rising. scientists’ names that are now legend- László Orlóci | 16

Bob Sokal invited me to a conference in and his combinatorial work with F.E. Bi- 1968 he organized with James Rohlf in net’s help at CSIRO. I should mention, Lawrence at the University of Kansas. that David always knew it better and The conference was called to establish never would leave anything he did not the North American Chapter of the Clas- like uncorrected. sification Society. The Classification Soci- David Goodall came to the conference ety already existed in Europe. The soci- from Riverside in California where he ety’s president, Peter H.A. Sneath, was served for a sort time with Robert H. attending from the University of Leices- Whittaker in the same department. I am ter in the U.K. I knew Sneath as a name saying this, because I met Whittaker in from their text book, and I met him at 1970 at Professor Reinhold Tüxen’s sym- the 1964 Botanical Congress in Edin- posium on vegetation science in Rinteln, burgh, Scotland, at which he gave, Germany. We were seated together and jointly with Sokal, a lecture on numerical had lengthy conversations. I found that taxonomy. I do not think he remem- Bob, a person who left nothing up to bered me, but he knew my paper, and he chance, was always maximally prepared. may have been the one who suggested He delivered perfect talks on relevant my name for the discussion session at topics, using a deep, baritone voice. He King’s College in 1969. was very much aware of his rank in sci- Sokal asked to present my thoughts on ence, yet very proud of his roots as a metrics, RQ duality, and whatever other farm boy from Kansas at the Sympo- topics I wanted to discuss, ad hock, at sium’s banquet. He was flattered when I the Lawrence meeting. I did that and complemented him, the farm boy who made some points. An interesting dis- made it in big time science. He returned cussion followed. At the meeting, we ac- the compliment for my work and back- cepted the motion from Sokal and for- ground. It was so ordained that Dave mally launched the North American Goodall’s name came up as a mutual ac- Branch of the Classification Society. I be- quaintance from quantitative ecology came the society’s first treasurer. for which Bob expressed unexpected interest. I openly wondered how could, Just before the Lawrence conference, two personalities so different as David Mike Dale, an acquaintance from my Goodall and Bob Whittaker, get along in post-doctoral year in the U.K. was visit- a shared hyper-competitive environ- ing me at Western. He had a stop-over ment, like Riverside. I was told later that with us on his way from the University of their relationship was in fact rather vitri- Sheffield, where I met him the first time, olic. to a research position with Bill (W.T.) Williams’ group at CSIRO in Australia. I I received invitation to a landmark event took Mike with me to Sokal’s confer- in 1969. It came from Professor Dr. Ga- ence. Mike was not invited, but already napta P. Patil of Penn State, to speak at known, and well-received. The partici- Yale University at the conference he was pants represented a good cross section organising for statisticians and ecol- of active researchers from numerical ogists. I should express my tribute to taxonomy and quantitative ecology. Da- G.P. for his life-long effort to help young vid W. Goodall was among them. I had scientists to showcase their talent and much to discuss with him. I got to know establish co-operation. A superb theo- his thoughts on ordinations, modelling, retical statistician, with a feel for appli- cations and foresighted facilitation, G.P. 17 | Looking bac k organised the Yale conference to bring House in Fairland, Maryland with L. together ecologists interested in statis- Orlóci, C.R. Rao and W.M. Stiteler as ed- tics and statisticians interested in ecol- itors. My paper, appreciated by many at ogy. Through similar conferences which the conference, started a second life on G.P. organised, statisticians and ecol- ResearchGate with 1083 reads since ogists gradually learnt how to communi- 2017. This tendency is very much the cate. He spoke of my discipline as statis- same with my very early work on ordina- tical ecology, and of his, as ecological tion and classification. My 1978 book statistics. He invited well-known quanti- “Multivariate analysis in vegetation re- tative ecologists to his conferences, search”, all but forgotten for three and a among them Chris Pielou and David half decades, came to life on Res- Goodall, and well-known statisticians archGate with 1256 reads in the past such as M.S. Bartlett from the U.K. and few years. C.R. Rao from India. Sabbaticals I presented a paper on information theoretical techniques in Yale. I was devel- I wanted freedom from the beginning, to oping classification and pattern analysis pursue my science freely in my way. The on that basis. In my lecture, I mentioned University of Western Ontario, my prin- Alfréd Rényi’s remarkable paper of ciple home institution in continuity since th 1961, presented at the 4 Berkley Sym- 1965, gave me the opportunity. I could posium on Mathematical Statistics and spend time at universities and scientific Probability. The paper was paradigm institutions anywhere of my choosing. setting in diversity analysis, available for th ecologists in the symposium proceed- After every sixth year I have taken the 7 ings.16 Rényi develops generalization of on sabbatical leave. I chose visiting pro- disorder-based entropy and infor- fessorships, the first in 1972, and the mation, a parental class of C.E. Shan- year I was promoted to Full Professor. non’s entropy function and S. Kulback’s The Botany Department at the Univer- minimum discrimination information sity of Hawaii at Manoa was my first statistics. C.R. Rao stopped me in the choice. Professor Dr. Dieter Mueller- hallway between sessions and asked for Dombois, my fellow graduate student at Rényi reference. I quoted it to him from UBC, kindly helped with the arrange- the reprint I had. It was rather lengthy. I ments. I taught a graduate course on offered to write it down for him. “It will quantitative ecology, continued with my not be necessary” he said, “I remember research project, and in the time left, I it”. worked on my book ‘Multivariate analysis in vegetation research’. It saw 1st edi- I mention another of G.P.’s conferences, tion in 1975 and an enlarged 2nd edition called in 1978 at the Universita di Parma. in 1978, just in time for my 2nd sabbati- The topic could not be less sweeping, cal. “Multivariate methods in ecological work”. My paper presented thoughts on With family with me, Márta perfected the nonlinearity problem of ecological how to get the family through a year data structures in conventional multi- away from home, with the least amount variate analysis. I will have more to say of hassle and on budget. She managed on this later. The Parma conference pro- the household, oversaw daughter Mar- ceedings were published in 1979 by In- tha’s schooling, did volunteer work at ternational Co-operative Publishing the Waikiki Aquarium, audited courses László Orlóci | 18 at UH, researched Hawaii’s ancient cul- I published early after my Ph.D. and kept ture and natural history, attended con- on using such outlets as the Journal of versational classes in Spanish at the Ecology, Nature, and Systematic Zool- Community College on Dillingham, and ogy. The publications launched me on an enjoyed her daily swimming at Ala exceptional learning experience as a reg- Moana beach. The year spent at UH on ular at events and a participant in the our 1st sabbatical became a watershed development of conceptual tools in my year for us. We developed the modus field. I should put into perspective what operandi that helped to plan subse- I have learnt about statistics during that quent sabbaticals. early phase of my career. I soon realised that the core of applied statistics that I Martha attended her first year in ele- found in ecology represents a specific di- mentary school at Hokulani, just a short alect. I called it for brevity ‘Fisherian sta- walk from the University Housing on tistics’ (FS). I realised that the FS’s mo- Dole Street where we rented accommo- dus operandi is hard to satisfy outside dation. She made friends with class- experiments performed in controlled mates, most of them from academic environment into which the experi- families at U.H. from countries of all con- mental material is placed in a manner tinents. She had a similar experience dictated by well-defined, regularity con- during our 2nd sabbatical during the ditions. These conditions demand re- 1979/90 academic year attending 8th sponse variables, whose probability dis- grade at Washington Middle School in tribution is normal, measured on units Honolulu. The experience at Hokulani taken in random sampling. What a level- and Washington taught her how to func- headed rigidity? – I asked myself. I tion in a very complex multicultural en- started to portray FS as a project-inde- vironment, with elements of conflict be- pendent data analytical machine, vali- tween different cultures. She not only dated only if the regularity conditions gained experience in managing cultural can be validated. This appeared far too adversity but practiced it. She could pass generalised, on the verge of uselessness. onto her daughters the positive attitude toward others, so important part of life With engineering background, my very in Canada’s rich cultural mosaic. first reaction was to questions FS’ operational validity in a complex system’s en- We enjoyed the Island life and I found at vironment, such as the natural vegeta- U.H. a stimulating academic environ- tion. An example: ment. We returned time and again, and in that process, Hawaii became a second The normal distribution of population home for us. performance (X), individually or collec- tively, is a necessary condition in FS. The Early lessons assumption of normality early that normality may fit well plant population per- Bob Sokal and P.G. Patil were remarka- formance if it is linear. It can be that way bly successful in their conferences and in a short ecosere. In any case normality symposia. They could draw the heavy should not be routinely assumed. I de- weights into active multidisciplinary dis- velop thoughts on this in the paper I pre- course and introduce into their circle pared for G.P. Patil’s 1978 Parma confer- young scientists, just entering the highly ence.17 Considerable interest in this pa- competitive arena on merit. per is continuing to present, shown by 19 | Looking bac k more than 1290 reads in last few years on ResearchGate. I now explain why I think the Normal spectrum is not a satisfactory model for p joint species responses on a long ecosere. For such a case the Normal distribution’s density function is

1 -0.5(X- μ)Σ(X-μ)'-1 f(X)=e jj j B

Inspect the joint response graphs for two species X1 and X2 drawn in Figure 1. At any point j on the horizontal axis E (a map of the ecosere), level of Figure 2. Two-dimensional joint scatter of re- forcing of the natural environment is shown. The sponses for two randomly chosen species in four response vector corresponding to Ej is cases. The case of linear response is pictured in the first and the last graph. The joint scatter, in the sec- X=(XX...j1j2jpj X) ond and third graph, represent cases of the Whit- This is the phytosociologist’s record set, the relevé taker-Groenewoud type response. Symbol  is the of the vegetation stand from sample plot j.  is the product moment correlation. centroid, the ‘average’ performance in the sample. The normal distribution model has two analytical Σ is the p x p covariance matrix, and B a scaler, traits, shape and density. Shape refers to the joint chosen to make the total area unity under the nor- scatter (Figure 2), assumed to be elliptic. Density is mal curve or p-dimensional hypersurface. Figure 2 measured by the density function f()X . The den- illustrates the joint scatter of two species under j non-linear and linear responses on a long (A) and 1 sity is assumed to be maximal f(X) = at the cen- short (B) ecosere. j B troid  and declining from that point outward in all directions according to the normal law. Explicit or implicit, these are regularity conditions that come with any application of the normal model in statistical analysis. The same conditions must be true for the data set whose analysis is contemplated. If these had mismatch, science is not served. Mathematics allows us to describe the joint scatter in reproducible terms. The description can be a centred p x p product matrix such as the covariance ( Σ ) or an n x n distance matrix D with a characteristic element,

' -1 0.5 Figure 1. Two types of species response (X) to en- (X -X )(X -X ) djkjkjk= Σ vironmental forcing (E) on an ecosere. The graphs are best considered as response trends around The point to be made regarding the mathematical which nature superposes performance points (not model and its application is simplest if based on shown). Inspect Figure 2 for stylised examples. Figure 1 and 2. Two questions: Two response types are shown. Type A is the Whit- 1. Does an elliptic shape appear an acceptable taker-Groenewoud type response, expected on proxy for the shape of any of the point swarms dis- long gradients, where the breadth of forcing played in Figure 2? causes species substitutions in the plant community. Examples of long ecosere include soil mois- 2. Does the normal density distribution (highest at ture from hygric to xeric, precipitation from arid to the centroid, declining outward) appear a good humid, elevation from low to high altitude across choice in any of the cases shown? biotic zones. Response type B depicts linear spe- The answer to the both questions is ‘yes’ for cases cies responses, expected on short ecosere that of linear response. The answer to both is ‘no’ for capture an ascending or descending portion of the cases of Whittaker-Groenewoud type response. In response curve. the latter case (third graph in Figure 2), the natural shape is a hourshoue. The path between the poles are I sthe best fitting curvethrough the point swarm. As pictured, the centrois in the void and László Orlóci | 20 density increases outward. Any suggestion to a complete specimen in which case it straighten the curve by transformation is carries all traits of its type. It may be a misguided. So is to pretend that the lacuna in the center remains unoccupied by chance, knowing it species, a functional type, or something represents impossible joint states in nature. If else. I make a comparison in the broad- ignored and the ellipsoid model is forced, much est sense to biological systematics’ type ecological information what remains for analysis is specimen to synsystematics’ homogene- an artifact. ous vegetation stand, the elements of To an engineer, the question of respon- which are individual plants, usually of sibility for the conclusions drawn and many types. Since the plant types as- decisions made on that basis come nat- semblage into stand is environment me- urally. I connected responsibility with diated, the first rule of unit selection in the local validity of the necessary regu- vegetation sampling is environmental larity conditions. Should we link validity homogeneity within the stand’s area of results and conclusions coming at unit in pattern theoretical terms. Both large from FS to the local validity of the floristic and structural homogeneity are underlying regularity conditions? If so, required, but it is subordinated to envi- the results and conclusions therefrom ronmental homogeneity. Without the would be left invalid when the necessary homogeneity concept the ‘typical vege- regularity conditions were not substan- tation stand’ cannot be defined and tiated? ‘preferential sampling’ cannot be prac- Statistics is the science we use when we ticed. want to study large populations based Preferential sampling is the only alterna- on a limited sample of population units. tive under most survey conditions in The conventional solution to taking such vegetation ecology. But we know, not a sample is by letting chance rule the se- leaving selection up to chance is not lection. The population unit can be any- new. It was not in the cards when Dar- thing. In some cases, my units are indi- win developed his theory of species evo- vidual plants of a species population. lution, nor when Kerner von Marilaun The units can be entire stand of the veg- worked on the theory of vegetation dy- etation complex, whose elements are namics by facilitation, or when the species within areal limits. In neither Dokuchaev discovered pedogenesis. of these two cases can we expect there They were keen observers able to re- to be a complete directory of the individ- combine isolated fact involving typical ual units available in natural vegetation. case. This implies that not all units are labelled and are at an accessible address. Can On the way well into my work with sta- random selection be done without a tistics I decided that FS’ idea of sample complete directory? No, it cannot be efficiency has to be extended to bring it done! in line with what I do on the holistic level of vegetation complexes. Efficiency is a Therefore, the phytosociologist’s prefer- condition measurable on a continuous ence has shifted onto another method scale. Therefore, it is practical to phrase of sample selection. That method leaves the question another way: when to stop all decision in the surveyor’s hands. I re- sampling? This mandates an operational fer to the method supervised or prefer- stopping rule. To make clear what I just ential selection of sampling units. In said, I consider two ways of reasoning. such a case, the unit selected must be One uses the sampling error, while the typical of its type. Such a plant must be 21 | Looking bac k other has in focus the sample’s struc- my perception of reality in community tural stability. The former is the key con- ecology. Forcing unproven regularity cept in statistical sampling in FS, the lat- conditions in practice appeared to me ter in statistical ecology in holistic stud- nothing less than a straitjacket that can ies. lead to fake results in the wrong hands, and even worse, it can dampen the spirit An example should clarify the two ways which thrives on thoughtful innovations to determine when to stop sampling. in the pursuit of originality in develop- One is using an a priori decision the ment of statistical ecology. other is a decision made in the sampling process. Both give us n the optimal sam- In my world the user clarifies the natural ple size, but the property optimised is complexity’s local uniqueness and did totally different. How do we determine not start by statistical techniques whose the value of n in FS? It is the sample size valid application requires the knowledge at which a chosen confidence interval W of the attributes’ probability distribu- captures the population mean  with 1- tion.  probability. Assumed to be known is th I had a motto and still use it: “verify the σ, a p-valued vector of the n fraction expected and reveal the unexpected”. I of eigenvalues of the p x p population found FS a tool kit to verifying the ex- covariance matrix. Perhaps never so, in pected. The exploratory objective was natural populations. According to statis- important to me. I found no trace of that tical theory, the normally distributed X in FS. It is indeed not suitable to address has sampling variance σ / n . Based on the objective to reveal the unexpected. this, the lower limit of the 1-0.05 confi- I started to follow the exploratory line dence interval is X-1.96σ/n and the up- and develop a statistical dialect for my- per limit is X+1.96σ/n . self with chief objective to probe the data for the unexpected. I did not reject We now take a deep breath and ask the FS, but used as my litmus test for the va- question. Where would you get σ for p- lidity of any FS-based conclusion: are the populations when p may run into the assumed and necessary regularity condi- tens or even hundreds and population tions verifiable? If not, I could see no al- size is uncountable? I ditched the whole ternative to recasting the problem in a thing and I designed a stopping rule in frame without FS’ regularity conditions. sampling which uses available information and works. It measures the sam- With the dilemma circumscribed and ples structural stability in an expanding not willing to follow the bandwagon, I sample.18 My method requires process was prepared to work for paradigm sampling and monitoring the target change. I knew about Monte Carlo structures stability level. When a prese- methods which use random sampling to lected stability threshold is reached, the study the distribution properties of em- sampling is stopped and at that point n pirical scalars. Permutation techniques is considered optimal. 8 Where to go do this. Probability distributions are gen- from here? erated based on which the mathematical result’s probability of occurring by With background in engineering, famili- pure chance under the local conditions arity with ecological theory, and much can be determined. David Goodall, as- hands-on field survey experience, I could sisted by T.E. Binet, computed his prob- not square FS’s regularity conditions and abilistic similarity index this way in the László Orlóci | 22

60s. The idea of taking the statistical Classification techniques’ mathematical barebones and coupling them with Monte Carlo To impress on us students in Sopron that techniques appealed to me. This allowed there is no science without classifica- to make a mathematical outcome’s sig- tion, we were explained in class the rel- nificance measurable on a probability evant arguments by Aristotle. I remem- scale and generalizations with maximal ber the three steps to knowledge: classi- local relevance. fication, description, explanation of causality. To us students, the idea came I have set my sight on creating a study through as being universal and timeless, scenario in which statistical analysis not limited by the nature of objects con- treats ecological reality as it is found, sidered. and not what it should be under precon- ceived regularity conditions. I came to A totally new intellectual experience prefer process sampling in the spirit of waited for me in my early carrier in the ecological Poorean approximation 19 New World. I found an alternative band- with stopping rules linked to degrees of wagon philosophy afoot in Plant Ecol- the sample parameters’ stability20. I re- ogy. It was pretending that vegetation lied on unit selection based on the tradi- classification is specious, not scientific, tional biological criterion of choosing or outright useless. The logic behind it th units that are complete and typical, hier- was offered in the early 20 Century archical analytical schemes which allow Gleasonian dictum stating the impossi- powerful multiscaling, 21 and Monte bility of a logical vegetation classification Carlo simulation for probability genera- in the want of exact duplicates. There- tion.22 fore, it is futile to look for logical connec- tions between plant communities. Obvi- Debated fundamentals ously not enough attention was paid to Euclid, Kerner von Marilaun, or contem- The vegetation stand porary science where automatic classification has already taken centre stage in Vegetation science steps beyond the in- research as a conceptual subject and ventory stage when it asks: practical tool for understanding complex 1. What makes the vegetation stand, the phenomena. Quantitative (Statistical) unit plant community, a complex system Ecology and Numerical Taxonomy were that works? offering modus operandi for creating groups of vegetation stands by cluster- 2. Are vegetation stands natural units, ing or by assignment of individuals to pa- linked through time in situ by some de- rental groups. terministic rule, or they are arbitrary segments ruled by randomness? I never felt the need to be confined by the bandwagon effect and found free- When answered, these define syndy- dom to continue that way in Greig- namics and the study scenario in phyto- Smith’s lab. I spent a good amount of sociology. But the answers are diametri- time studying the behaviour of auto- cally different. matic classification techniques. I was ex- perimenting with decision metrics in search for well-balanced compact clus- ters, as opposed to those which create 23 | Looking bac k chaining. I eventually settled on minimi- chaos theory writers I started to see re- zation of the sums of squared deviations ductionism as a game with self-similar- within the rising groups. My algorithm ity. James Gleick24 supplies a marvellous was running on an ELLIOTT 808 example in which Leibniz imagined that smoothly by the end of summer 1964. I “… a drop of water contained a whole teem- called my method optimal agglomera- ing universe, containing, in turn, water drops tion and published a paper on it in 1967 and new universes within.” in the Journal of Ecology.23 Only later did I hear from Chris Pielou, when she was Self-similarity is telling me that each writing her “Mathematical Ecology” that drop is a scaled down version of a larger J.H. Ward had used the same metric in drop, but it cannot be expected that 1963. analysis of a small drop could possibly reveal the contents of the larger drop. I Reductionism can paraphrase the Leibniz idea in a syngenetic example. If the top level of We were taught in school that the scien- organization is the vegetation stand and tific method to understand a complex the lowest level to which it can be de- system is both reductionist and holist. composed is the individual plant, then The two are as different as day and the apropos design that connects the night. They are supplementary. The two extreme levels is linked by the stand question is which will return maximum assembly process. If I follow Michael Po- information a complex system? lanyi’s logic 25 I should recognise two It is the objective of science to discover types of realities in the vegetation com- how a complex system works, in other plex. One is the complex level and the word to reveal the rules. Reductionists other is the individual plant. The lower dismantle the system into its compo- level, the individual plants, cannot be nent parts and hope to reveal the rules used to specify the complex without from what is learnt about individual knowing the assembly rules. This is true parts. Holists look at a system intact, in for whatever is the complex reduced to. its fullness. They know, only that way In this, the controversy fanned by the can they detect emergent properties band-wagon slogan ‘back to the compo- owing to interactions. nent parts’ is vacuous. We were also taught as students the Syndynamics classical dictum adopted to ecology: The “… in nature there is no ending and whole is more than the sum of its parts. no standing still, but only an ever Put it another way the whole in nature coming and ever going.” has its synergy in the way of interactions Anton Kerner von Marilaun 1863 that bring forth properties not discover- able in the parts. Ecologist call the result I begin with Kerner, my literary mentor of ‘interaction’ an ‘emergence’. in classical ecology. I consider him the fa- The question that intrigued me if the ther of Dynamic Ecology. Dr. Theodor whole, the vegetation stand, is the top Just of the Chicago Natural History Mu- level for reduction and the lowest level seum once wrote: is the individual plant, what is connect- “On the strength of his beautiful yet scientif- ing the two. Clearly, there must be a de- ically correct description of plant communi- sign which rules the vegetation stand’s ties, he [Kerner] is also justly regarded as assembly. When I started to read from László Orlóci | 24 one of the founders of modern plant ecol- through time by a mechanism for which ogy.” I use the modern term “facilitation by Theodor Just’s remembrance of Kerner action-reaction feedback”. Kerner's is included in the first section in Henry S. doctrine gives recognition to the fact Conard‘s 1951 masterful work “The that plant communities in their site are Background of Plant Ecology”, a transla- developmentally linked in structure tion of Kerner’s “Das Pflanzenleben der through time to the communities that Donauländer”. Conard specifies the preceded them. No inheritance implied. translator work this way: The linking mechanism Kerner identified from field observation of overlapping “I have aimed to put the text into reasona- vegetation and environmental patterns bly characteristic English while still preserv- in substrate age. Kerner’s pioneered the ing the flowery enthusiasm and florid style method of space-for-time substitution. of the author”. He discovered of the general rule that As far as dynamic plant ecology is con- species already in the site prepare the cerned, I see Kerner’s work as a para- ground for new arrivals from outside. digm change in science. H.S. Conard is We find the idea expounded in Conard’s completely right when he writes in 1951: “The Background of Plant Ecology”, "The original German of this book, published Chapter 24, page 196 to 205. in 1863, is the immediate and direct parent What Kerner identified as community of all later works on [dynamic] plant Ecology. development has been described by All of the fertile ideas which have since been others as “succession”. Thoreau (1863, developed are here in embryo. Recent writers, however, are strangely silent about this see also Anderson 1986) and Hult (1881, basic source book". see Clements 1936) are usually mentioned as sources for the term. Priority I am convinced that H.S. Conard had in on the term "succession" by itself has lit- mind the direct flow of ideas from tle relevance to me when I consider the Kerner into benchmark work without originality of Kerner’s comprehensive much mention with little mention of theory on level with the great biological Kerner by Hult (1881), Warming (1895), theories of his contemporaries (Darwin, Cowles (1899), Clements (1916,1936), Mendel, and Dokuchaev) in natural sci- Cajander (1926), Braun-Blanquet (1927), ence. I note only that by the time Phillips (1935), Tansley (1946), and other Conard’s book was published in 1951 at th 20 Century writers on plant community the Iowa State College Press, the second dynamics referred to as succession. I re- time in 1977 by the Arno Press, out of fer to bibliographic references in my fashion, vegetation ‘succession’ was no 26 1978 monograph. longer a bandwagon topic. It is true that Alexander von Humboldt While Kerner's doctrine is the first scien- (1769-1859) influenced Kerner, but Su- tific theory regarding the plant commu- kopp (1987) points out Humboldt’s nity’s structural directed dynamics, the views of the vegetation are static, more Darwin-Wallace theory of evolution, aesthetic than scientific. Indeed, Kerner powered by random mutation and natu- has the honour of being the first to put ral selection, is the first theory to unify forward a comprehensive theory for biological thinking about the origin of plant community dynamics, i.e. Syndy- species. The seminal take on the idea is namics, in his doctrine of plant commu- Charles Darwin’s 1859 book "On the nity development propelled in situ Origin of Species by Means of Natural 25 | Looking bac k

Selection27 After Darwin, the morpho- after taking a graduate reading course at logical similarities of species could no the University of British Columbia with longer be viewed in the static terms of Professor Wilfred B. Schofield on North taxonomies past, but rather as branches American ecological classics, that of an evolutionary tree from which mod- Kerner’s ideas re-emerged decades later ern systematics emerged.28 incognito in the succession theories of North American and British plant ecol- The third of the great biological theories, ogy. I wondered if the reasons are found Gregor Mendel’s, is outstanding by hav- not so much in the language, but in the ing a comprehensive statistical defini- overheated band-wagon effect and in tion. When considered in large numbers the domineering of leaders of the invisi- the traits inherited tend to the 3 to 1 rable colleges. The syndrome is left suffi- tio. One of the far-reaching messages in ciently explained by Robert (Mac) McIn- this is that there are laws that are statis- tosh in his 1985 monograph “The Back- tical, true in large numbers or in the long ground of Ecology: Concept and Theory” run, but not true in all cases.29 published by the Cambridge University The fourth theory regards soil develop- Press in New York. ment, known as pedogenesis. It was put The reader in this age of mechanistic, forward by Vasily V. Dokuchaev in 1883. impersonal approaches in science A keen observer of overlapping natural should not miss observing that Kerner’s pattern of vegetation and soil types, doctrine of community development by Dokuchaev discovered that soils are spe- facilitation, Dokuchaev’s theory of envi- cific to the natural vegetation under the ronment-mediated pedogenesis, and local physical conditions of parent mate- Darwin’s theory of evolution by natural rial, climate, and topography. He knew selection have had nothing to do with from different degrees of solum devel- mechanistic, impersonal sampling and at opment that changes occur in situ in arms-length inference, but everything time. He concluded, when he observes a with able, unrestrained minds observing soil profile what he sees is created by the pattern regularities in nature and draw- ongoing biophysicochemical process ing logical conclusions obeying common unique to the site. He called the process sense. pedogenesis. To summarise, I see Syndynamics as a The forgoing invites more remarks. Dar- complex system’s multiscale functional- win’s theory became bible in all schools ity, governed by natural rules diagnosa- of biology, while Kerner’s and ble by signals from historic phylogeny, Dokuchaev doctrines – the roots of the current environmental mediation, and holistic dynamic view of the vegetation traits emerging from interactions. complex, a high-level notion very much at the core of modern ecological think- I look on the process as determinism in ing, was and probably still is largely ig- chaos30 It starts from somewhere and it nored. I have been fortunate to hear heads in the direction of an elusive at- about Kerner’s work as a student in Pro- tractor on an erratic course, reigned by fessor Ferenc Tuskó’s information phylogeny, environmental mediation packed lectures and about Dokuchaev’s and the always present chance effects. contributions in Professor Károly Bot- vay’s eloquent presentations in Forest Engineering in Sopron. It dawned on me, László Orlóci | 26

Diversity of pi. Equation Hα defines disorder-based

entropy of order  and Equation Iα de- Diversity partitions fines disorder-based information diver- I already mentioned my compatriot Pali gence of order . The generic forms are Juhász-Nagy earlier with whom I had six given above, from which Kullback’s min- months overlap in 1964 in Greig-Smiths imum discrimination information statis- lab. When I arrived in Bangor, Pali was tics 2I and several of the disorder-based working diligently on his contingency ta- H diversity indices can be derived. 36 I bles, developing an intricate scheme for emphasize ‘disorder-based’ to distin- partitioning disorder-based species di- guish Hα and Iα from Max Plank’s en- versity, patterned on the information ergy-based entropy37 and its Kaniadakis’ 31 theoretical work of A.I. Khinchin . Pali generalised quantum entropy.38 eventually named the partitions local distinctiveness, local valence, florula di- I developed thoughts on entropy and in- versity, and mosaic or beta diversity. formation-based data analysis early in Pali's work on diversity was going one my carrier. I presented a first overview way while my work went another. in 1969 at G.P. Patil’s interdisciplinary conference on Statistical Ecology at Yale. I was back in Canada, an assistant professor in Botany at the University of I should be more detailed and specify Western Ontario, teaching and doing re- Hα as a case such that  ≥  but never search. My interest in the methodolo- exactly 1. The cases will cover several of gies of information theory was rekindled the usual ecological diversity when I came across the 1959 book of measures.39 Solomon Kullback32 on information the- Rényi’s I is the tool of biodiversity par- ory and statistics and a 1961 paper by Al- α fréd Rényi33 on the generalisation of dis- tition in the canonical case. At  ap- order-based entropy and information. It proaching 1, 2I is Kullback’s minimum happened on one of my browsing at the discrimination information statistic, the Social Sciences library. Kullback and Ré- central scalar of his information-based nyi opened new ways for me to see di- statistical dialect. I charted a new direc- versity and information theory as a tool tion in the analysis within an interaction- of statistical data analysis. based structural frame. For the two-species case, the elementary partitions of Alfréd Rényi, a student of Kolmogorov, H and I for  approaching 1 are had a feel for the practical. In fact, his or- marked on the Venn diagrams: der-based generalization of disorder- based entropy and information, became the basis of paradigm shift in ecological diversity analysis. It allowed to see the generic relationships of ecology’s diver- 34,35 sity indices. Rényi’s basic equations : Complete partition sequences include α 1 s 1 s p #1 + #2, #2 + #3, and #1 + #2 + #3. Each H = ln pα I = ln i αi α  α-1 elementary partition (#1, #2, #3), duplet 1-α i=1 α-1 i=1 qi (#1 + #2, #2 + #3) or triplet (#1 + #2 + #3) Symbol pi stands for an observed pro- is a valid diversity measure. For synoptic portion, and qi is a random expectation reasons, I give a Venn diagram for three- 27 | Looking bac k species case and point out that many to notify the reviewer who identified more additive partition sequences can himself. be defined based on seven elementary I would feel unaccomplished if I did not quantities40 H and I: say more about my late friend, Pali Juhász-Nagy. I already mentioned the 6- month overlap I had with him in Peter Greig-Smith’s lab, and I confess, not un- frequently in the remarkable rustic pubs of Anglesey. Six months are short in ce- Entropy Information lestial time, yet sufficiently long for interactions to turn collegiality in friend- Extension of the scheme to higher num- ship which lasted until his early passing ber of species in the collection is possi- in 1993. Pali, a walking encyclopaedia, ble, but increasingly cumbersome. Be- yond a point only targeted sequences assured the conversation move forward, and science made in the fertile are considered. debating ambient. Whatever is the size of the collection, the elementary partitions and se- One of Pali’s favourite topics was Sci- ence itself and the place of Ecology quences of these allow linkage of the bi- within science. He was taking measure odiversity structure of the biotic com- of Ecology, and he did not like what he munity to identify factors of causality, the principal determinants of the com- found. He questioned how concepts were developed. He took exception to munity process as identified earlier. how ecological theories were con- As a postscript to introduction of Rényi’s structed. He felt past work paid insuffi- equations into Ecology, I should recall a cient attention to core concepts about manuscript on species diversity by Mark which a general ecological theory could Hill submitted to the American Natural- be constructed. To him, reformation of ist in the early 1970s. Sokal was the edi- ecology’s theoretical base was prerequi- tor at that time. It found its way from site to be called a ‘science’. He gave a Robert Sokal to my desk for review. I major seminar on the topic and short read the paper and in a signed review I talks, but few in the audience new ex- suggested more up-to-date contents by actly what he was talking about. Pali recommending Alfréd Rényi's 1961 pa- presented what I believe is a most com- per on generalised entropy and infor- prehensive account of his ideas in mation for reference. I think I also men- 1986.41 tioned Solomon Kullback’s book as rele- The appointed day of Pali’s departure vant source to be incorporated. I heard from Bangor has arrived. It was a rather nothing about the manuscript until 1974 grey, autumn day, Márta and I picked when students brought to my attention a paper in Ecology on diversity and even- him up at his place in Bangor and drove him to the railroad station in Holyhead ness. It was by Mark. It appeared revised on the south side of Isle Anglesey. Why as my review suggested. I mentioned Holyhead, and not Bangor? He was tick- this to Peter Greig-Smith at a meeting in Nijmegen a few years later. He thought eted on the Irish Mail, first class, a fast train from Dublin that comes by ferry it is unusual not to withdraw the paper into port at Holyhead on the Irish Chan- from the journal where it is under review nel. The Irish Mail did not have a stop in before offering it to another journal, and László Orlóci | 28

Bangor, only grabbed and dropped off energetics has is a well-practiced meth- mailbags on hooks while the train travel- odology to study calorific flow. The an- ing through the station at its normal tithesis of this is energy-based entropy speed. (EBE), as Max Planck used it within his theoretical frame, the resonator com- Pali was quite a sight that morning: type- plex. The resonator complex level in writer under one arm, some small things ecology is the pant community, more in a transparent plastic bag in same appropriately, the stand level with en- hand, dragging an over-size suitcase ergy-based entropy serving as proxy for with the other. His suitcase was bursting potential energy. with books, so heavy he could not lift it. He did not bring any food with him for The proposition that energy-based en- the trip and end he had not a quid on tropy, EBE, is proxy for potential energy him. We could not let him go that way. is entirely linked with the proposition We bought him supplies and I gave him that energy quanta are distributed in five pounds to see him through to the the complex according to the normal British Council in London. The train left, probability law. This means to me that and the next thing I heard about Pali was the energy connection of entropy can- a telephone call from British Council. not be limited to the nanoscale, the The caller wanted me to verify the “five scale on which it was formulated by Max pounds” Pali had received from me. Planck. EBE, and its umbrella concept, About three days later I had an envelope the Kaniadakis generalised quantum en- from Council with a crisp five-pound tropy (GQE), is the basis of taking the note inside. That was the way with us, analysis to the holistic level in plant with Pali and, of course, the always community energetic. The basic EBE proper British Council in 1964. quantity is my scalar about which I developed a reasonably detailed statistical Beyond diversity theory dialect.43 I mentioned Pali’s interest in diversity The EBE function is E = - ln P = ln C. In this, theory. To him a recasting of ecological diversity theory began with an analytical 1 (T+n-1)! (T+n)T+n C =  decomposition of disorder-based en- P = Tn C T!(n-1)! Tn tropy (DBE) into ecologically meaningful components. It should be clear that DBE Function E is parameterised at stand is not a stand-alone, isolated concept. level by n, the total number of species The idea is not presentable in the fullest (resonators), and by T, the total perfor- to ecologists without addressing the mance (frequency, mass) of the n spe- broader context not excluding holistic cies. Function E is an analytical tool for energetics. I presented ideas on this in proxy-scaling stand-level potential en- several monographs, most recently in ergy. Based on this the EBE model of a the paper “On statistical quantum ecol- vegetation stand of n species and T total ogy, a new paradigm for plant commu- mass is E = EPhy + E Env + E Rnd . Read this nity energetics” which I mentioned ear- “the EBE level in a vegetation stand is 42 lier. equal to the sum effect issuing from the My reasoning begins with the idea that amount of energy spent in three inde- ecology has no operative frame for com- pendent processes, such as historic phy- munity level energetics. What ecological logeny, recent environmental mediation, and ubiquitous chance events. 29 | Looking bac k

Considering that EBE is a special case of suggested that if I had any problems on the Kaniadakis generalised quantum en- arrival, I should go to his house directly tropy (GQE), the utility of GQE in plant and he would assist me. I took him up community energetic is considerable.44 on his word but overlooked an ingrained Clearly, any general theory based on EBE German custom of Tüxen’s generation: is holistic. Scalars under the QGE um- the after-lunch nap. Ringing the door- brella involve not the disorder-based bell, I waited. A lady in her 50s appeared, component of diversity, but the poten- Tüxen’s daughter, and then an older tial energy component with links to phy- lady, his wife, neither of whom could be- logeny, environmental mediation, and lieve their eyes. They both talked the random effects.45 same time but saying the same thing: nobody should be so ill-mannered as to Tüxen’s symposia come to the house at this very private hour in the day. Hearing the commotion, th Professor Reinhold Tüxen, the 20 Cen- Professor Tüxen came in quick steps to tury’s great facilitator in phytosociology, my rescue. Typical of him he did not let has been running annual symposia in me apologize. He apologized to me. Af- Rinteln for years. Rinteln is a small pro- ter a few minutes waiting, we were on vincial town on the Weser River in Lower our way to the correct destination Saxony. I become a regular attendee at where a reserved room waited for me. the Tüxen symposia by invitation in 1970. Each year the symposium’s focus The Tüxen symposia focused on vegeta- changed to a different topic as decided tion science. I had no problem of cou- at the end of the symposium the year pling it with quantitative ecology and nu- before, but the venue remained in merical taxonomy. I felt I could offer in- Rinteln. Tüxen’s house nearby in Toden- sight at the Symposium in the language mann, doubled as symposium headquar- of the phytosociologist. ters. The house accommodated the Tü- There were earlier 20th Century at- xen ‘Wohnhaus und Privatinstitut’. tempts to introduce the European phy- Typical of Tüxen’s preferences, scientists tosociological methods into American were invited from all corners of the ecology, most notably by H.S. Conard world in all stages of their carrier, noted and G.D. Fullerton who translated J. for contributions relevant to Vegetation Braun-Blanquet’s classics “Pflantzenso- Science. The presentation time was not ciologie” into English, by R.W. Backing enforced, only the presenters’ sequence who published a long account of the kept. Braun-Blanquet technique, and by R.H. Whittaker who reviewed in 1962 classi- The old man Tüxen was a hands-on or- cal work in “Classification of plant com- ganizer. On one of my visits, I arrived in munities”. But I could see novelty too in Rinteln from Hannover at the odd time, presenting quantitative ecology to phy- around one o’clock in the afternoon. I tosociologists. drove directly to the Gästhaus where I thought I had a reservation for lodging, It was at the 1971 Tüxen symposium but the place could not put me up and I where I met Bob Whittaker the first had the dilemma of looking for different time. I found him the best organised and accommodation. I remembered that in most articulate elegant speaker at his information letter to me Professor Rinteln. He showed interest in my brand Tüxen foresaw this as a possibility and László Orlóci | 30 of quantitative ecology, specifically ordi- WHO made it in big-time science”. I re- nation and classification techniques. He member him smiling and then we had had in mind the development of market- more beer. able software, that was simple to use Bob Whittaker corresponded with me one technique at a time. I really could on technical matters that he thought I not care for marketability, it never can help him with. The last time he crossed my mind. I preferred writing called me was in early spring 1980. The software to assist my research. I filled call was, as usual about technical mat- the code with options, calling for expert ter. I assume he called from his office at decisions in conversational mode. I in- Cornel. I was at my desk preparing my volved a multiplicity of techniques. lecture in my office on the top floor in St. Some found my programs impossible to John’s Building at the University of Ha- use - without lengthy tutorials. waii in Manoa. I knew nothing about his My way was too complex for Bob’s pur- illness, but I could tell from his voice he pose, a fact that came to the surface was in discomfort. very sharply when he saw my suggested My window gave me a clear view of the revision for the Bray-Curtis ordination.46 sea at Waikiki most days. That day there The paper offered an apparently minor were unusually dark clouds brought in but necessary correction to make or- by the trade wind over the Koolau thogonal the ordination axes. Bob con- Range, drifting low over the Campus in sidered it a complication. Chris Pielou the direction of Waikiki. On the usual thought it was marvellous. I consider day, there can be rain in Mano, but the that paper as one that gave me the most clouds usually do not reach the shore at fun to write. At long last I could make di- Waikiki. On that day when Bob Whit- rect use of what learnt in Professor Al- taker called the wind was strong and the fréd Staszney’s course on descriptive clouds moved all the way out to sea. (parallel projective) geometric class in Forest Engineering. Eventually Bob had In June Márta and I returned to London. his wish fulfilled by Hugh Gough and It was in late October that year that the Mark Hill. news of Bob Whittaker’s passing reached me. I should recollect a conversation I had with Bob Whittaker. We were seating Italian connection side by side at the Symposium reception in Rinteln, discussing personal histories. Tüxen’s annual symposia were meeting He knew I am Hungarian, and he knew place for phytosociologists where co-op- about the 1956 Hungarian revolution. In erations were forged, and joint re- response to his question regarding my searches planed. It was at the 1970 sym- family roots, I mentioned to him that posium where I met a group of Italian ac- one generation separates me from fam- ademics from the University of Trieste. ily farming, blacksmithing, and coalmin- They were interested in my work and I ing. He answered, “I come directly from was interested in theirs. The group in- the family farm”. I think he mentioned a cluded Professors Duilio Lausi and place in Kansas. “You are a farm boy? …” Sandro Pignatti, and two fresh gradu- I asked in a tone of surprise and appreci- ates, Enrico Feoli and Pierluigi Nimis. ation. Then I continued “… a farm boy Duilio, an economist turned vegetation 31 | Looking bac k scientist par excellence cultivated infor- Dealing with large-scale vegetation pat- mation theory on which I had several pa- terns matching environmental gradients pers by that time beyond the diversity in which the units are entire vegetation connection. Sandro, a botanical system- zones, or greatly disparate plant com- atist was working on his opus magnum munities, basing the vegetation survey “Flora Della Italiana”, a milestone in on plant species will not take the user modern Italian plant systematics. Pier- much beyond conventional floristics. luigi had interest in ecological modelling, The analysis, targeting comparisons and and Enrico was finding his way into comparison-based generalizations re- quantitative ecology. Starting with joint quires a plant taxonomy based on plant research, our shared activities quickly functional types. The methodology broadened into complex projects ex- based on functional types started to in- tending across biotic regions in Europe, terest me in the 1970s. In 1985 I offered the Americas, and Africa. an overview of my hierarchical scheme in a lecture in Rome.48,49 I was asked in 1977 to organize, in co-operation with the British Columbia For- The classical functional-type based ap- estry Service, the vegetation survey part proach is exemplified by the joint paper of a belt transect in connection with the of H.D. Knight and O.L. Louks published environmental impact study mandated in Ecology 50,219-234. It is one of many in the proposed Foothills Pipe Line pro- which use sequential arrangement. A ject. Survey sites were selected within a common feature is the use of character 3 km wide belt skirting an 800 km stretch states, for example ‘chamaephytes’, to of the Alaska Highway from Beaver structure the plant multitudes into pop- Creek, on the Alaska boarder, to Watson ulations. This way the character states Lake to the East on the British Columbia play the role of the taxa. border. Such an arrangement did not satisfy me, for reasons I explained concisely in my Duilio, Pierluigi, and their student (Paulo 1991 paper50, and in great length in my Merluzzi) joined the field work. They had book “Statistical Ecology”51. I opted for keen interest in the biogeography of the different designs, appropriate for multi- region, but this was their first visit to the scale, hierarchical decomposition of the region they knew from E. Hultén’s “Flora statistical scaler. My hierarchical of Alaska and Neighbouring Territories” schemes can highlight the effects that and other literary sources. Pierluigi ar- drive the assembly/disassembly process rived some weeks before the field work in the community. The methodology began. He immersed himself into and was tailor-made for the convergent practically memorised Stanley L. Welsh’s community evolution project which “Anderson’s Flora of Alaska and Adja- Duilio, Enrico, and Pierluigi proposed. cent Parts of Canada”. The field work The new project has taken us on field was finished in 1978. Duilio and Pierluigi work to the U.S. Southwest and Califor- returned next year and completed a fol- nia, to the Teide on Tenerife, the Monte low up study on ruderal plant communi- in North West Argentina (with Valério ties and lichen synusia along the High- DE Patta Pillar), the Drift Valley in Ethio- way. I should mention, I used infor- pia, and Ngorongoro-Serengeti in Tanza- mation analysis the first time to probe a nia (with Enrico Feoli). These spurred the mega set of vegetation data for struc- development of the hierarchical model tural trends and environment connec- tions. We published a report in 1989. 47 László Orlóci | 32 in character-based (species-free) plant score vector [+ + + - -] and cover/abun- community analysis. dance value 25. This number appears at the 4th base unit in the hierarchy. The Valério De Patta Pillar picked up the numbers at the nodes are cumulants. topic in the late 80s and worked up his The same template applies to all cases in own scheme, along the traditional comparison. Any stand-level statistical lines. 52 He continued developing the analysis keeps the hierarchical units or theory to the present with links to signal its levels as relevés. detection in the community assembly process.53 My models allow embedding My second scheme is unbalanced: the description of individual taxa, the character set types, called also functional types into nested hierarchies or hierarchical relevés. The levels of the hierarchy are logically linked by the natural connectedness of the characters.54 I settled on two hierarchical scheme tem- plates. My first scheme is balanced:

There are two relevés, which portray an identical evolutionary scheme for 6 dis- tinct taxa (a to f). The hierarchy can be There are 5 levels in the hierarchy, the constructed for real plant populations states are binary, and the number of 5 mapped into a phylogenetic frame. The base positions is 2 =36. This is based on numbers at the base units are C/A esti- my desert hierarchical relevé from Tuc- mates. Cumulants are shown at nodes son, Arizona with species re-coded as 6 on the systematic levels. In this case, the binary (yes +, no -) character set types, populations are plant species (baseline), based on 5 logically linked characters of genera, families, and order. I explain the the stem: detail in my “Statistical Ecology”55 and in a separate book56 how I used the com- bined schemes in statistical tests on self- organization and environmental transience in community evolutionary studies. The two schemes came too late to rescue an anaemic effort in the analysis of good evolutionary data for convergence The characters: T stem tall, G stem green, S stem within an IBP project.57 spiny, Fl stem fleshy, FT stem flat. One of our major projects found initia- We start mapping the character set tion in 1983, under the name “The Inter- types at the top level (5) in the hierarchy. national School for Vegetation Science – For example, character set type “a” has 33 | Looking bac k a school without walls”. The occasion arranged rendezvous with Márta in Ma- was the short course Sandro Pignatti or- drid. On the appointed day I took the ganised at the Sapienza Università di flight from Arusha. I was waiting for her Roma. The 1983 event was lavishly sup- at Barajas airport. Her flight arrived from ported by UNIVAC. It included a lecture Budapest on time. We had a week free series, tutorials, and field trips. The time to enjoy Madrid and explore the re- school ran on an invitational basis at sci- gion together before taking the long entific institutions where local organis- drive to León through the Oak Savannah ers used locally acquired funding. We of the arid plain of Spain. At one point brought the teaching faculty gratis. In we passed by wheat fields close to har- 1985 we were guests of the Geobotani- vest time, they were sprinkled with red cal institute at ETH in Zürich. Otto Wildi poppies and blue Centaureas. The sites and the head of the institute, E. Landolt, were to Márta an example of nature’s did local organization with precision and paintings in pastel colours. It reminded rich content. In the same year, we had a her of Claude Monet’s famous “Poppy short course at UNR in Rosario (Argen- Field near Argenteuil” which she saw tina). Pablo Louis honoured us with the years before with me in the Musée d’Or- organisation and acquired lavish sup- say on the Seine in Paris. But at the site port. In 1989 we were back in Italy at on the Plane of Spain, the fields were not that the Università di Sassari on Sardinia. so lush as Monnet’s at Argenteuil. We Ignazio Camarda was our host and or- were in a dry, Oak Savannah environ- ganised the local activities. ment. The last time I was involved as director We could not resist. I stopped for a pho- with the International School’s program, tograph. Márta volunteered to be my we were at the Estation Agricola Experi- model. She walked some steps into the mental in León, Spain in 1989. Dr. Asun- wheat field, touching gently the flowers cion (Choni) Garcia-Gonzales and Dr. with her hands. Then turned facing me. Florentino (Tino) Bermudez were our gracious hosts. It is with the warmest recollection that I express my thanks and compliments to Tino and the memory of Choni for contributing their talent and energy to make the Short Course in León an outstanding success. As it happened, they invited me back to visit Choni’s field research in 1989. The site in the high Sierra Cordillera Canta- brica in the Parque National de Los Picos Márta on the Plane of Spain, 1989 de Europa appeared intriguing. I made a Her hair, the colour of harvest wheat, commitment for the next visit. Márta her blue eyes, mirroring the colour of planned to go back with me to Spain and Centaureas, gentle facial features, this was an ideal opportunity. Prior to ar- shapely body, and her dress rich in hues riving in Léon, Márta was visiting in Hun- of red, yellow and blue, blended into the gary and I was doing research on the natural matrix. I felt as I did many years highlands at the Great Rift Valley in Ethi- before on our walks in the Sopron opia, and on the Ngorongoro – Serengeti woods. I fell in love again. transect in Tanzania with Enrico Feoli. I László Orlóci | 34

We spent over a week with Choni and We came to Montpellier in early au- Tino, much of the time in the field at tumn in 1975 to attend the annual Sym- their permanent research site in the posium and Field Excursion organised by Parque National de Los Picos de Europa. François Roman at CNRS. The venue was I remember our field trip any food con- near the SIGMA site, a walled off large noisseur would treasure as a challenging park-like estate within Montpellier. adventure. They choose Oviedo for fa- Márta and our daughter Martha (9) with bada, mountain country restaurants for me, and my good colleague Jaroslav Mo- the meaty offerings of local gastronomy, ravec from the Czech Academy of Sci- and seafood served on the Playa San Lo- ences in Pruhonice in company, we took renzo in Dijon. the short walk to SIGMA estate. We found the gate wide open. A lady was I invited Choni and Tino to spend a picking figs from a solitary tree not far month with us next year on discussions from us. We took few hesitant steps and a workbench program using Choni’s through the gate. As we were turning data set for scrutiny. To our delight, they around to leave, the lady called out in a accepted the invitation. Their sweet lit- welcoming voice something like this: tle daughter Paula came too. The visit “Que puis-je faire pour vous”? We in- was highly successful. Choni developed troduced ourselves and told her we further plans for joint research. came with the purpose to pay our re- One afternoon we were seating in our spect at Professor Braun-Blanquet, if living room, Choni in deep conversion not inconvenient, and apologised for with Márta. Suddenly tears started to not having making arrangement in time. flow from her eyes. It was not explained. “Of course.” She replied in English, the I forgot about the incident. The time of kind lady then offered fresh figs for Mar- their departure approached, we agreed tha, which she accepted, and lead us to on further co-operation, and parted as the larger of two building. She ushered family friends. Only later did Márta tell us through the door into the study of me what made Choni cry. I realised how her father. She told him whom we were. brave she was, not to break down com- The frail, old man, looked up from be- pletely. She discovered by touch, the re- hind his large desk smiling, stood up and turn of her condition which remained in extended his hands in a warm welcom- remission for an encouragingly long ing gesture. It was a cool September time. She passed away the same year. day. The fire was lit in the large fire place behind him. His large desk was cluttered A visit to Professor Josias with papers and books, an old cat seat- Braun-Blanquet ing near him. I thought of Professor Ferenc Tuskó’s lectures he gave in class I have many pleasing experiences from in 1952 in Sopron on the Zürich-Mont- the long years in the profession, but few pellier School of Phytosociology. as treasured as the story how Márta, I found myself face to face with the Mas- daughter Martha, and I met the very ter himself, the iconic Professor Brawn- personification of the Zürich-Montpel- Blanquet. He wanted to know every- lier School of Phytosociology, the life thing about us. He assured us how 58 time director of the SIGMA Institute in pleased he is with visitors, who in these Montpellier, the Professor Josias Braun- days rarely come, and especially not an Blanquet. entire family. He was visibly pleased to 35 | Looking bac k see young Martha. We took her out of The audience received him with stand- school to come with us. We talked about ing ovation. That was the last time for the symposium where he was to appear, him to see so many of his onetime stu- phytosociology, and other things as if dents and us, his recent acquaintances. we were his long-time acquaintances. He passed away a few days later. Márta He pulled out his visitors’ book with en- still has the signed reprint she received tries and pictures of many who came to as a parting memento from him. see him before us, going back decades into the colourful past. I wrote a short My take on synthesis paragraph, expressing my esteem and thanked him for receiving us. He asked Phytosociological data are presented in for a picture. Márta had one of me. I an- structured tables. Classical pre-com- notated it and inserted on the assigned puter age synthesis had to contend with page. Then Márta turned to him. “I am repeated rearrangement of species and concerned, our visit may have tired Pro- relevés in the table until the desired fessor Braun-Blanquet unduly” she said. block structure emerged. It was all done We were ready to leave. “No, no” – he by long-hand. The advent of computers replied. “On the contrary, please stay a and specialised software empowered little longer.” We had tea with him, lis- the automation practically limitless tened attentively to what he had to say. mathematical sophistication. He invited us to see the laboratory in the My take on the synthesis of structured next building where so many visiting sci- tables is a contingency table analysis entists and students over many decades CTA. It is a highly flexible adaptation of worked hard and studied under the Lancaster’s method. It shows hidden master’s direction. Once the gathering structural patterns and trends invisible place of the ambitious young and the to the classical table rearrangement sagely old, from all corners of the world. techniques. I have written an interactive “Now days, this place is rather quite” code (CA) to automate CTA. Briefly de- said Professor Braun-Blanquet, gestur- scribed, CA produces two sets of co-or- ing by his hand in the direction of a long dinates (eigenvectors) on each eigen (ef- wide desk which dominated the room. I ficient) ordination axis, all in a single an- recall, the large desk covered by manu- alytical sweep. One set is for the row en- als, maps, notes, some plant specimen, tities of the structures table and the data sheets, and everything else that other for the column entities. The same you would expect to find in a pace code has provision for computation of where phytosociology is being created. dispersion profiles for the row or column It was all there, the atmosphere, the entities, portraying deviations from ran- photographs, all the tools of the trade, dom expectation. I cite my 2014 edition but no people - an eerie site as if the of “Statistical Ecology”59,60 for detailed large room were waiting for the occu- description of CTA and list of relevant pants to return from some interesting references. field excursion - students, professors, young and old from near and far, to con- CTA is not the same as Mark Hill’s tinue the work they left unfinished years detrended correspondence analysis in the past. (DCA). Once highly fashionable among practicing ecologists, I took exception to I met the Great Old Master once more at it knowing that DCA purges the table the 1980 CNRS symposium. He was 96. from a compound non-linear trend by László Orlóci | 36

‘de-trending’ the data set. It was in this ably the sole candidate who could com- connection that Enrico Feoli came to plete a Ph.D. with us in 16 months in the visit me at UWO in 1977. He wanted to annals of U.W.O.’s Faculty of Graduate experience my code (CA). Enrico ob- Studies. János returned to Hungary and tained with CTA remarkably insightful had a distinguished academic career in results from his phytosociological data numerical taxonomy and quantitative set from his Pre-Alps data, which he pub- ecology at ELTE in Budapest. For his di- lished in 1979.61 rection setting research, János was recently elected academician member of Trajectory analyses the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (MHAS). My 1964 work on syndynamics62 in Vla- dimir J. Krajina’s Coastal Western Hem- I learnt from the Jornada del Muerto lock Zone followed the phytosociological project that I need new conceptual tools tradition. Half a Century later I sug- that would allow me to take the next gested what can be a second step in the step in the analysis of long coenoseres, study scenario in the manner of trajec- chronological or spatial. The following tory analysis. 63 puts the chronological into focus. What was offered by conventional statistics Early in 1987 I arrived on sabbatical for analysis of general data series, I did leave in the Biology Department at not like for reasons I outlined when I dis- NMSU. Márta followed me in the spring. cussed the Fisherian dialect (FS) of sta- Professor Gary Cunningham, the head of tistical analysis of data from surveys of the Department and other members re- the vegetation complex. I approached ceived us with typical southern hospital- the analysis from another direction. I ity and outmost helpfulness. Professor called it multi-scale trajectory analy- Walter Conley and Dr. Marsha Conley sis.66,67,68 I focus on scale-dependent pa- were my academic hosts. Several mem- rameter oscillations in the long-term bers of the Department were working on vegetation process. The technique is an IBP long-term ecological research multivariate and by scale change also hi- project on a long transect from playa to erarchical. rocky ridge on Jornada del Muerto in the Chihuahua desert. Márta and I re-sur- I started from what I knew about trajec- veyed the vegetation on the 2700 m tories and projectiles from military sci- stretch of the earlier transect by contig- ence, a compulsory program with its uous quadrats and used the data in our own curriculum for engineering stu- research concerning edge detection. 64 dents. We were trained as prospective officers in reserve in infantry-attached Transect studies to reveal vegetation artillery. The military science program pattern have been on my research was run parallel with the forest engi- agenda from earlier days on in my ca- neering program. reer.65 A noted contribution came in our pattern analysis program by graduate The bulk of the conceptual development student János Podani who created and for the trajectory analysis was done in analysed a vegetation map of a microsite the Botany Department of the University in the sagebrush vegetation in British of Hawaii at Manoa in Honolulu, in Valé- Columbia’s Okanagan Valley. János rio De Patta Pillars' lab at UFRGS in Porto came to us for a second Ph.D. He is prob- Alegre, Brazil, and to some extent on visits to Madhur Anand’s lab in Sudbury. I 37 | Looking bac k realised early that I need a model for tra- Governance rules jectory analysis in which the target is not fixed, and the objective was not to make It so happens that much of vegetation the projectile hit the target dead on in sciences effort is spent on the search for the least number of shots. Indeed, in my the rules that govern the vegetation model, the target had to be assumed re- stand’s assembly/disassembly process. I ceding into the future without an end, suggest that trajectory analysis is easily while undergoing chaotic oscillations adopted to perform specific tasks in the under the complex effect of a continu- search for governance rules in vegeta- ously changing environment in situ. My tion chronoseres. first interest turned to the behaviour of the projectile in ‘flight’, propelled on an The idea of using a signal theoretical ever-changing trajectory. In other analogy in a phylogenetic context in the words, my model could not be described search is well-expressed by Valério De 70 by a single Newtonian equation with Patta Pillar in plant communities. I provision made for fixed ‘gravity’ and picked up the topic in the context of how some random effects of the Normal to identify and quantitatively express 71,72,73,74 type. It had to be made a completely di- stand assembly rules. I tackle the alectic exercise based on holistic empiri- problem by way of analytical isolation of cism and chaos theoretical principles fit- components of the total signal corre- ting the chronosere for which the trajec- sponding to phylogeny, responsible by tory is written. self-organisation, current environmental mediation, responsible for transi- The ‘projectile’ in the model vegetation ence, and signal garbling by unidentifia- chronosere is the actual state of the veg- ble (chance) effects. My phylogenetic etation stand in situ at any point on the base is the hierarchical taxonomic sys- evolving temporal trajectory path. The tem into which the community taxa are target, called ‘attractor’, is a future state mapped by modern plant manuals. of the stand in situ.69 My model’s target is an attractor not fixed, but chaotically The physical function partitioned is sums mobile, propelled by the vegetation of squares and products, replaceable by stand’s assembly-disassembly process. entropy and information of order one, In these terms, the attractor is a set of or generalised quantum entropy of or- conditions, in continual flux, specific to der one. the local state of the biogeoclimatic complex. Prologue I took interest in the trajectory’s behav- I know the view I created about my life iour, manifested by regularities in the is not complete, yet I feel my account is trajectory’s parameter oscillation. My detailed enough to reveal ‘me’. If I have choice for parameters includes process time I may return with more in yet an- velocity, acceleration, phase structure, other version of “Looking back…”. What complexity, directedness, and others, else should I say for last before I quit? such as the stability/instability condi- Perhaps something very general but tions in the plant community’s energy- centrally relevant in my early life, em- based entropy level. phasize the important of family to me in my professional life, and mention the strong ties to Sopron, the city of loyalty and freedom. László Orlóci | 38

I grew up in an age of momentous Recognition came my way in all forms. I change, instigated by geopolitical ambi- was promoted through the ranks to full tions of empire builders. I was not an professor in seven years and received outside observer; the unrestrained vio- many coveted awards in the scientific lence over much of my early years di- world. But most importantly, Márta and rectly affected my family and me. By the I we were free to make our choices. I was age of 10 I saw my family’s world of civil- allowed throughout my career to accept ity and middleclass-values disappearing. visiting professorships and visiting re- By the time I reached 14 the old order search scientist positions in academe was shuttered, total terror descended and other scientific institutions world- on the people in the country on the wide. It is with a feeling of indebtedness heels of the plundering hoard who called hat I express my sincerest thanks for himself our “liberator”. Freedom was those who invested in me their trust and lost, proconsuls ruled, and the occupa- confidence, to far too many only in me- tion army stayed on at the cost of the oc- moriam. cupied population for four and a half The separation of family life and profes- decades. The nightmare for Hungarians sion my experience has no sharp separa- who stayed when the perpetrators’ sys- tion. Scientific meetings become family tem imploded in Moscow. events, and so do my short courses, I realised early in my youth that nothing workshops, field research, and attend- is permanent around me, peace and ance of events of recognition. I should freedom can be no more than fleeting recall my induction to the Hungarian moments, and life or death a matter of Academy of Science in Budapest. I com- command. I had to learn to be street- pleted my talk, remembering that Márta smart, daring but not mindless, keep my too planned to say a few personal thoughts and think before speaking, and words. There were many friends and have trust in few and never in the sys- family members in the audience from tem apparatus. I learnt to observe what Hungary and overseas. They expected is happening around me and think of Márta to speak from earlier experience. what I see. I turned to the presiding academician and asked him if he would consider per- How much worse could it become be- mitting Márta to say a few personal came my motto “Have I taken a wrong words compliment my presentation. He step?” became a central question. Márta smiled, then turned toward Marta and and I failed in exactly that. We sided with with a wide gesture offered the podium the revolution. We wanted to be free, to her. Márta was well prepared, brief, live a normal life at home in peace and well-received. Her daring act be- among our people, in our culture. We came the topic of conversation at the lost the fight and still paying the price: a Academy. We were told she is the first life in exile. academic wife ever to speak at an induc- It was Canada who took as in. We recip- tion ceremony since the Academy’s es- rocated with our best effort to lead a life tablishment in 1825. She may have pio- of exemplary citizenship. Measuring our neered a new tradition. Why not? life’s every-day difficulties on the scale I should not leave unmentioned Márta’s of how worse could be, convinced me I favourite story from 1997 at my induc- had clear sailing in the free world. I tion to the Canadian Academy of Science never felt the need to ask for ‘more’. 39 | Looking bac k of the Royal Society in Ottawa. New Fel- him. “Dr. Haynes, this is Ruth, my grand- lows are inducted at the annual general daughter, a future prime minister of meeting in November. The Society chose Canada.” Dr. Haynes agreed saying “She the Château Laurier for venue in 1997 certainly got an early start among the and the Confederation Room in the Fellows and has a parliamentarian expe- West Block on Parliament Hill for the in- rience too”. All laughed, and the ban- duction ceremony. I had the larger fam- quet rolled on. ily in attendance including granddaughters Kathryn (three) and Ruth (three months old). Kathryn walking with The last topic I plan to present is of great Márta in the Château and calling Márta importance to me. Many memories tie Nagymama as they converse, attracted to Sopron, that wonderful City in the set- the attention of the others among the ting where the piedmont of the Alps passers-by in crowd who caught the meets the Lesser Hungarian Plane. The phrase “Nagymama”. To Márta’s de- latest is the City Government’s memorial light, much conversation pursued, and medal “For Sopron 1956”. It was acquaintances forged. The General awarded to me in 2016 for demon- Meeting’s banquet was attended by the strated exemplary valour during the granddaughters. Ruth’s broad smile in a 1956 Hungarian Revolution and War of pram carried by her mother Martha re- Independence. I include in the Appendix ceived much attention. People walking photocopies of the medal, certificate, by stopped and inquired about her. One and letter informing of the award by the of them, Robert Haynes, the president of Right Honourable Dr. Tamás Fodor, the Royal Society at that time, observed Mayer of the City and County of Sopron. Ruth in the pram, stopped at the group.

Introductions done, Márta turned to

László Orlóci | 40

Appendix

1. Letter of notification of award

Literal translation: The city of loyalty and freedom 41 | Looking back

The City and County of Sopron Dr. Tamás Fodor, Mayer Mayer’s Office: File number: Subject: October 23 Celebration Manager: Telephone number: László Orlóci Academician 3-575 McGarrell Place London, Ontario, Canada N6G 5L3

Esteemed Mr. László Orlóci In the name of the Government of the City and County of Sopron I acknowledge with regret that you could not be present at the Jubilee organised for the 60th anniversary of the 1956 revolution and war of freedom. Naturally, I understand that your health do not make it possible for you to travel this far. Please do allow me to forward to you as an attachment the Commemorative Medal and associated Certification Document prepared for you on the anniversary of the revolution and war of independence. With the Commemorative Medal I would like to express my gratitude for demonstrated valour, which serves as an example for posterity. With your exemplary activities you have done everything that in Sopron the revolution and war of independence reach conclusion without bloodshed. It is your eternal merit that in our city and vicinity the revolution remained bloodless. I am sorry that you could not receive this medal in person at the jubilee celebrations. It was memo- rable and uplifting to experience the meeting and reminiscences of the heroes of 1956, families and university students. I wish you Sir good strength and I hope for improvement in your condition soon. Sopron, 2016 October 27 Respectfully, Dr. Tamás Fodor Mayor 2. “Sopronért 1956” memorial medal for valour

Left: Within shield, “Sopron Civitas Fidellissima” (Sopron the Most Loyal Town). Lower encryption: “For Sopron”. Right: encryption: “Pro Patria 1956”. Citation at presentation from Mayer Fodor’s letter (see item 1 below): László Orlóci | 42

“With the 1956 Commemorative Medal I would like to express my gratitude to László Orlóci for demonstrated valour during the revolution which serves as example for posterity. It is his eternal merit that in our city and vicinity the revolution remained bloodless.” 3. Certificate of award

Literal translation: The Mayor of the City and County of Sopron awards on the 60th anniversary of the 1956 revolution the jubilee memorial medal to László Orlóci, member of the MEFESZ Revolu- tionary Committee, for exemplary valour demonstrated during the revolution. Sopron, 2016 October 23.

43 | Looking back

Endnotes

2 View live the extemporaneous presentation on YouTube (LASZLO ORLOCI) in five short segments under the title “How I become a statistical ecologist”. 2 Orlóci, L. 2018. On statistical quantum ecology. A new paradigm for plant community energetics. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327781028 3 Orlóci, L. 2014. Quantum ecology. Energy structure and its analysis. SCADA Publishing, Canada. Online edition: https://www.amazon.com/dp/153716788x 4 Orlóci, L. 2017. The energy-based entropy structure of natural plant communities. Causes, measurement, statistics. SCADA Publishing, Canada. Online edition: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321495308 5 Mihály, M. 2016. “Reflections”. SCADA publishing, Canada. Online Edition: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1534968172 6 I should mention, Kathryn has graduated from the Natural Resources Management (Forestry) program at Lake- head and Ruth entered fourth year Geology on a Presidential scholarship at the same university in 2018. 7 “Slave of the Huns”, https://www.amazon.ca/láthatatlan-ember-Géza-Gárdonyi/dp/1784352292 8 Attention! Attention! Air raid warning. 9 Railway station. 10 Elementary school. 11 Don Bocce Church 12 To down load, go to the web address below, click Alternative Links for Downloads on Márta’s side on my webpage, then click title #4: https://sites.google.com/site/statisticalecology/ 13 To down Ziva interview, go to https://sites.google.com/site/statisticalecology/ click “Alternative Link for Download” on László’s side then click # 1001 in the list. 14 Orlóci, L. 1966. Geometric models in ecology. I. The theory and application of some ordination methods. J. Ecol. 54:193-215. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267096435 15 Orlóci, L. 1967. Data centring: a review and evaluation with reference to component analysis. Syst. Zool. 16:208- 212. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263697380 16 Rényi, A. 1961. On measures of entropy and information. In: J. Neyman (ed.), Proceedings of the 4th Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, pp. 547-562. University of California Press, Berkeley. 17 Orlóci, L. 1980. Non-linear data structures and their description. In: L. Orlóci, C. R. Rao and W. M. Stiteler (eds.), Multivariate methods in Ecological Work, pp. 239-275. ICP, Fairland, Maryland. 18 Development of the sample stability sampling rule benefited greatly from joint research with Otto Wildi and Valério De Patta Pillar. The reader will find the detailed exposition of technique and original references in my Sta- tistical Ecology (2014) already referenced in the text. Orlóci, L. 2014. Statistical ecology. Quantitative exploration of Nature to reveal the unexpected. SCADA publishing. Online Edition: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1453760520 19 Orlóci, L. 1993. Complexities and scenarios on in bioenvironmental analysis. In: Costa, G. et al., Conceptual tools for understanding nature. World Science, London. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263766025 Orlóci, L. 2001. Prospects and expectations: reflections on a science in change. Community Ecology 2: 187-196. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/240763243 20 Orlóci, L. and V. De Patta Pillar. 1989. On sample size optimality in ecosystem survey. Biométrie-Praximétrie 29:173-184. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/233835712

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21 Orlóci, L. 2009. Multi-scale trajectory analysis: powerful conceptual tool for understanding ecological change. Frontiers of Biology in China 4: 158-179. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/226491574 22 https://www.amazon.com/dp/1453760520 23 Orlóci, L. 1967. An Agglomerative Method for Classification of Plant Communities. Journal of Ecology 55:193-205. Download from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/264898705 24 Gleick, J. 1988. Chaos. Making a new science. Penguin Books, U.S.A. 25 Polányi, M. 1968. Life's Irreducible Structure. Science. 160 (3834): 1308–12. 26 Orlóci, L. 1978. Multivariate analysis in vegetation research. Online edition: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263766205 21 The idea of evolution was not new to the times of Wallace or Darwin. Other scientific theories already existed before them. Buffon (1707-1788) and Lamarck (744-1829) should be mentioned. Substantial critique has been voiced against the Darwin-Wallace theory since it formulation, particularly against the idea of slow, gradual evolution. Kozo-Polyanskiy (1937), the proponent of symbiogenesis, argues that without moments of explosive evolution the increase in the number of species at the rate as it happened in the angiosperms during the Cretaceous would not have been possible. Hitching (1982) makes the points that Darwinism has been tested and failed on several counts: (i) gaps in the fossil record suggest evolutionary leaps; (ii) genes are stabilizing mechanisms and tend to minimise the chances of new forms; (iii) random mutation, occurring at the molecular level, cannot account for the explosive increases in the diversity and organisation of life. 28 I refer to J. Podani’s (2009) essay on the unresolved problems of systematics as road map to appreciation, inter- pretation and comparison of different taxonomic systems using the modern phylogenetic approach as reference. 29 It should be mentioned that about the same time as Mendel was doing his experiments with pea plants, Galton (1822-1911) and Pearson (1857-1936) were developing new ways to manage chance-related errors in the analysis of sampled biological data. But beyond the statistical connection, Mendel's main significance is in the seminal nature of his work. A relatively short, one and a quarter century later – short when compared to the time elapsed in astronomy before an explanation of planetary motion was found – genetics managed to assemble sufficient knowledge to map the human DNA. The regularity revealed in the structure of the DNA has, in all consequences in cracking the human genetic code, a level of significance comparable to Kepler's mathematical map of planetary motion that lead to Newton's explanation of why do the planets do not fly off their orbits, or very relevant to ecology, Planck’s idea that energy is transported in discrete units and the potential energy level of complexes are measurable in entropy terms. 30 https://www.amazon.com/dp/1453760520 31 Khinchin, A.I. 1957. Mathematical foundations of information theory. Dover Publications, New York. 32 Kullback, S. 1959. Information theory and statistics. Wiley, New York. --- Kullback, S., Kupperman, M. and H.H. Ku. 1962. Tests for contingency tables and Markov chains. Technometrics 4: 573-608. 33 Rényi, A. 1961. On measures of entropy and information. In: J. Neyman (ed.), Proceedings of the 4th Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, pp. 547-561. Berkeley University Press, California. 34 Rényi’s equation got me into a highly embarrassing situation when it appeared in a highly corrupted form in my 1978 book “Multivariate analysis in vegetation research”. The mistake is corrected in the internet edition. See my ResearchGate page.

35 Definitions and relevant remarks are collected from earlier papers in my 2006 article on diversity partitions in Community Ecology (see below) and in my 2014 book on “Statistical Ecology” already referenced in the text. See also: Orlóci, L. 2006. Diversity partitions in 3-way sorting: functions, Venn diagram mappings, typical additive series, and examples. Community Ecology 7:253-259. https://www.amazon.com/dp/1453760520 36 https://www.amazon.com/dp/1453760520 37 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327781028

45 | Looking back

38 Orlóci, L. and K. Özkan. 2018. Energy-based entropy and its generalisation. Part 2. Extensions of concept and application in regional vegetation survey. Downloadable from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/325269808 39 Hill, M.O. 1973. Diversity and evenness: a unifying notion and its consequences. Ecology 54: 427-432. 40 https://www.amazon.com/dp/1453760520 41 See Juhász-Nagy Pál in catalogue of the Országos Széchényi Könyvtár (National Szécsényi Library), Budapest:

42 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327781028 43 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327781028 44 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/325269808 45 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327781028 46 Orlóci, L. 1974. Revision for the Bray & Curtis ordination. Can J. Botany 52:1773-1776. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/237159097 47 Orlóci, L. and W. Stanek. 1989. Vegetation survey of the Alaska Highway, Yukon Territory: Types and Gradients. Vegetatio 41: 1-56. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/225841887. 48 Orlóci, L. and M. Orlóci. 1985. Comparison of communities without the use of species: model and example. Ann. Bot. (Roma) 43:275-285 49Orlóci, L. 1991. On character-based plant community analysis: choice, arrangement, comparison. COENOSES 6:103-107. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/264933992 50 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/264933992 51https://www.amazon.com/dp/1453760520 Section 12.5, Nested character hierarchies, page 159 et seq. 52 Pillar, De Patta V. and L. Orlóci. 1993. Character-based Vegetation Analysis: the Theory and an Application Pro- gram. Ecological Computations Series (ECS): Vol. 5. SPB Academic Publishing bv, The Hague, The Netherlands. – argument in favour of character-based analysis and description of a very fast computer program in C. 53 Pillar, V.D. and L.S. Duarte. 2010. A framework for metacommunity analysis of phylogenetic structure. Ecology Letters 13: 587–596. 54 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/264933992 55https://www.researchgate.net/publication/285771146 page 159 et seq. 56 Orlóci, L. 2012. Self-organisation and Mediated Transience in Plant Communities. Scada Electronic Books. Kindle Books https://www.amazon.com/dp/1461028221 57 Orians, G.H. and O.T. Solbrig (eds.) 1977. Convergent Evolution in Warm Deserts. Dowden, Hutchinson Ross, Stroudsburg, Pennsylvania. 58 http://www.encyclopedia.com/topic/Josias_Braun-Blanquet.aspx 59 https://www.amazon.com/dp/1453760520 60 Orlóci. L. 2011. Flexible Computing in Statistical Ecology. Scada Publishing, London. 138 p. Online Edition distributed by Kindle Books. Ordering information: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1460972953 61 Feoli, E. and L. Orlóci. 1979. Analysis of concentration and detection of underlying factors in structured tables. Vegetatio 40:49-54. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/226171777

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62 Orlóci, L. 1965. The Coastal Western Hemlock Zone on the South-Western British Columbia Mainland. In: Ecology of Western North America, pp. 18-34. Ed. V.J. Krajina, Department of Botany, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C., Canada. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263697303 63 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/226491574 64 Orlóci, L. and M. Orlóci. 1990. Edge detection in vegetation: Jornada revisited. Journal of Vegetation Science 1:311-324. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318849059 65 Orlóci, L. 1971. An information theory model for pattern analysis. J. Ecol. 59: 343-349. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/264898711 66 Orlóci, L. 2009. Multi-scale trajectory analysis: powerful conceptual tool for understanding ecological change. Frontiers of Biology in China 4: 158-179. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/226491574 67 https://www.amazon.com/dp/1453760520 68 Orlóci, L. 2012. Statistical multiscaling in dynamic ecology: probing the long-term vegetation process for patterns of parameter oscillation. Scada Publishing, London. Revised Online edition distributed by KGB https://www.amazon.com/dp/1475071388 -- This is a monograph the indirect outcome from my excursion with MTA scientists in 2010 to the Kiskunság of Hungary. I thank Academicians János Podani and the late Gábor Fekete, and MTA scientists Drs. Katalin Török, Marianna Biró and Enikő Magyari for facilitation. Enikő Magyari kindly lent me use the expert data set. 69 I am presenting thoughts on a chronosere. The model can be formulated for toposeres or ecoseres with or without space for time substitution. 70 Pillar, V.D. and L.S. Duarte. 2010. A framework for metacommunity analysis of phylogenetic structure. Ecology Letters 13: 587-596. 71 Orlóci, L. 2012. Self-organization and mediated transience in plant communities. SCADA Publishing, London. On- line edition: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1461022821 72 https://www.amazon.com/dp/1453760520 73 Orlóci, L. and K.S. He. 2009. On Governance in the long-term vegetation process: how to discover the rules? Frontiers of Biology in China 4: 557-568. http://www.springerlink.com/content/119832/?k=Orloci 74 This equation got me into a highly embarrassing situation when it appeared in a highly corrupted form in my 1978 book “Multivariate analysis in vegetation research”. The mistake is corrected in the edition downloadable from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/44528408

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