| No 1 | February to March 2007

KYRGYZSTAN | Trends in Conflict and Cooperation

In the past two months, Kyrgyzstan has experienced a high level of political tensions, mainly related to the breaking-up of the so-called tandem between President Kurmanbek Bakiev and Prime Minister Felix Kulov at the end of January 2007. In January, Kurmanbek Bakiev had proposed Felix Kulov to the parliament as the appropriate candidate for the post of prime minister. The parliament, however, rejected the candidate twice. Legally, the president would have been able to nominate Felix Kulov for a third time and in case of renewed refusal, dissolve the parliament. However, Kurmanbek Bakiev refrained from doing this, and proposed Azim Isabekov to the parliament instead. Isabekov was accepted as a candidate on 29 January. Like Kulov, he comes from the Northern Chui province. He is regarded as a close ally to the “Southerner” Bakiev and expected to continue the politics of regional balance. However, despite initial hopes, the political situation in Kyrgyzstan remained extremely volatile after Isabekov’s appointment. After his dismissal, Felix Kulov joined the opposition camp, and the confrontation between the government and the opposition intensified. Kulov established the “United Front for a Worthy Future for Kyrgyzstan”, which is comprised of several prominent opposition activists such as former parliamentary speaker Omurbek Tekebaev. The United Front called for the ousting of the president and for another “” to take place on 11 April in . The United Front, however, is unlikely to succeed with its protest on 11 April. First, there is no immediate reason today to call for the ousting of the president. In March 2005, rigged parliamentary elections served as a catalyst for general dissatisfaction with the president’s policy, leading to the ousting of President Akaev. President Bakiev was elected on 10 July 2005 in elections considered to have “marked tangible progress by the Kyrgyz Republic towards meeting OSCE commitments.” Secondly, the President has undertaken repeated efforts to reconcile with the opposition’s demands. After street protests in November 2006, he changed the constitution, promised to fight against corruption and organized crime, and to further economic development. Among other things, he transformed the state television company into a public broadcaster and dismissed Prosecutor-General Kambaraly Kongantiev. Thirdly, the opposition is not as united as it was back in 2005 – several prominent opposition figures such as Almaz Atambaev, Azimbek Beknazarov, and Roza Otunbaeva have not joined the United Front. They maintain that, if Kulov’s intentions were sincerely directed towards democratic reforms, he would have had the chance to implement them while serving as prime minister under President Bakiev. Finally, President Bakiev managed to find a common approach with the moderate opposition. On 29 March, the parliament approved Almaz Atambaev as new prime minister. Atambaev immediately called for a coalition government. To what extend this latest move has further weakened the already fragmented opposition remains to be seen.

One of the dominant issues seen in the past two months was the government’s decision on 19 January to ban foreign wholesale traders from the country’s bazaars as of 1 April. Although initially aimed at restricting the impact of traders from China on the Kyrgyz economy, the general nature of the ban unintendedly hit traders from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan as well. This bares heavy consequences especially for the southern regions of Kyrgyzstan, where cross- border trading is one of the main sources of income: Without the Chinese wholesale traders, the bazaars in southern Kyrgyzstan would lose much of their attractiveness for retailers from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. However, on 3 March the Kyrgyz government suspended the decree until 1 January 2008, arguing that more thorough analysis and discussions with other governments is needed, especially with the Chinese government. The issue will therefore remain a political debate for months to come. But in light of the above-mentioned difficulties with the implementation, there is a high probability for a softer and less problematic version of the decree to be adopted later in the year. The question of legalizing polygamy in Kyrgyzstan was resurrected in this reporting period. There have been discussions on the issue since the break-up of the . This time, the question has had a strong backing from the Minister of Justice, Marat Kayipov. The arguments are being motivated by religion, tradition and the current reality: from a religious point of view, polygamy is only allowed if a man can care for all his wives equally. Due to labor migration – mainly of men who often leave their families behind and sometimes re-marry in Russia – polygamy is practiced especially in rural areas. According to the supporters of legalization, there is no reason to criminalize someone who is doing a service to society by taking care of more than one woman. The strongest opponent to the legalization of polygamy is President Bakiev, who repeatedly stated there was no need to reverse the societal progress achieved by Kyrgyzstan in the 20th century. Other opponents refer to the possible damage of Kyrgyzstan’s reputation abroad if polygamy were to be legalized. Related to this issue, a Muslim women’s organization asked the FAST Update | Kyrgyzstan | No 1 | February to March 2007

Kyrgyz government to allow women to be photographed for official documents wearing their headscarves. While this demand is not a very important matter per se, together with the discussions on polygamy it shows the increasing importance of perceived Islamic values and traditions in society.

The most controversial economic issue of the past months was whether or not Kyrgyzstan should join the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund’s Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative. While supporters of joining the initiative maintained that this would allow a restructuring and eventual cancellation of Kyrgyzstan’s foreign debt, opponents feared that this restructuring would come at the cost of losing control over strategic assets such as water and power generation. They furthermore argue that finding itself on the list of countries having joined the HIPC initiative together with countries that used to be supported by the Soviet Union could deeply harm Kyrgyzstan’s image among possible foreign investors. The camp of supporters was mainly made up of officials from the National Bank and the Ministry of Economy and Finance, while opposition was voiced by parliamentarians and civil society actors. Some analysts suggest that the opposition to the HIPC initiative is part of a broader picture of increasing anti-Western sentiments, which include suspicion towards international, Western-dominated organizations. Another interpretation is that opposition to the HIPC initiative is a sign of raising awareness among the population of being its own master, with people questioning where all the international funds that had been pouring into the country since its independence have ended up and whether further assistance Map of Conflictive Events in Kyrgyzstan from abroad would really change their lives for the better. The government itself was divided about this issue. On 20 February, it refrained from joining the HIPC initiative, not only because of internal pressure but also because Russia, as one of Kyrgyzstan’s key creditors and strategic partners, was not in favor of Kyrgyzstan joining the initiative. Russia’s motive for opposing this move was perceived as its fear of losing influence over the Kyrgyz economy. As depicted on the map, besides the political conflicts in the capital Bishkek, tensions were especially high in the northwestern Talas region where exploration work in the gold mines, Jeruy and Andash, led to protests from the local population, which feared massive pollution of the rivers in the region. Several rallies were held during this reporting period, threatening to completely isolate the Source: FAST event data Talas valley by road blockades should the question not be resolved. Prime Minister Almaz Atambaev has promised to visit Talas and settle the question on 14 April, as long as the situation in connection with the rallies on 11 April allows for such a visit. From an economic perspective Kyrgyzstan needs the income from this gold deposit; however, local residents claim that it will not be them who will profit from gold exploitation but a small circle of people in Bishkek. The fact that the village which will be most affected has agreed to the exploitation after allegedly having received compensations of USD$ 450,000 points to the possibility that the whole issue is more about money than health.

The most noteworthy international development was the abolishment of the visa regime with Uzbekistan. As of 13 February, citizens from Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are allowed to stay up to 60 days in the respective other country without requiring a visa. This agreement, which was expected to ease the daily lives of people living in border areas, has so far not shown its benefits: a lack of proper documentation by the Kyrgyz citizens (ID cards not accepted by the Uzbek side instead of passports) and customs regulations that remain very tough are sources for corruption and still hamper free cross-border movement of people and goods.

The political situation in Kyrgyzstan will remain instable in the upcoming months. Although statements about a possibly developing civil war, as reported in the Kyrgyz media, are exaggerated, the confrontation between parts of the opposition and the government is unlikely to disappear soon. With his tactics of concessions towards the moderate opposition, President Bakiev will probably keep the upper hand in the power struggle. Offers for negotiations by international actors such as the OSCE are the only option for intervention by outside actors; however, without a genuine will to negotiate from the conflicting parties themselves, the leverage for outside actors is very limited.

Contact FAST International is the early warning program of swisspeace, FAST International covering 25 countries/regions in Africa, Asia and Europe. Based in Country Team: Kyrgyzstan Bern, Switzerland, the program is funded and utilized by an Sonnenbergstrasse 17 international consortium of development agencies, including the 3000 Bern 7 Austrian Development Agency (ADA), the Canadian International Switzerland Development Agency (CIDA), the Swedish International Development [email protected] Cooperation Agency (Sida) and the Swiss Agency for Development and www.swisspeace.org Cooperation (SDC).