Statistical Analysis of River Flow Data in the Horizons Region

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Statistical Analysis of River Flow Data in the Horizons Region Statistical analysis of river flow data in the Horizons Region NIWA Client Report: CHC2006-154 May 2007 NIWA Project: ELF07202/HZLC22 Statistical analysis of river flow data in the Horizons Region Roddy Henderson Jan Diettrich Prepared for Horizons Manawatu Regional Council NIWA Client Report: CHC2006-154 May 2007 NIWA Project: ELF07202/HZLC22 National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research Ltd 10 Kyle Street, Riccarton, Christchurch P O Box 8602, Christchurch, New Zealand Phone +64-3-348 8987, Fax +64-3-348 5548 www.niwa.co.nz All rights reserved. This publication may not be reproduced or copied in any form without the permission of the client. Such permission is to be given only in accordance with the terms of the client's contract with NIWA. This copyright extends to all forms of copying and any storage of material in any kind of information retrieval system. Contents Executive Summary iv 1. Introduction 1 2. Flow statistics for water allocation planning 1 2.1. Flow quantity statistics 2 2.1.1. Mean flow 2 2.1.2. Median flow 2 2.2. Flow variability statistics 3 2.2.1. Seasonal variability 3 2.2.2.Flow distribution 3 2.3. Flow extremes 4 2.3.1. Mean annual flood 4 2.3.2. FRE3 and days of accrual 4 2.3.3. Sensitivity of FRE3 5 2.3.4. Mean annual low flow 9 2.4. Filtering 10 2.5. Temporal sampling 10 2.5.1. Western diversion 11 2.5.2. Eastern diversion 12 2.5.3. TPD as a whole 12 2.6. Synthetic time series 13 2.6.1. Temporal changes 13 2.6.2. Other synthetic records 14 3. Acknowledgements 16 4. Flow summaries 16 4.1. East Coast Catchments 20 4.1.1. Akitio at Weber (25003), Jul-1980 to Jul-2000 (all data) 22 4.1.2. Owahanga at Branscombe Br (1425101), Jul-1999 to Jul-2005 (all data) 24 4.2. Manawatu and Southern West Coast Catchments 26 4.2.1. Manakau at Gleesons Rd (32001), Jul-1979 to Jul-1989 (all data) 30 4.2.2. Ohau (Water Race) at d/s Culvert (32107), Jul-1991 to Jul-1994 (all data) 32 4.2.3. Ohau at Rongomatane (32106), Jul-1978 to Jul-2004 (all data) 34 4.2.4. Ohau at Water Race (32105), Jul-1974 to Jul-1978 (all data) 36 4.2.5. Kiwitea at Spur Rd All (200), Jul-1977 to Jul-2005 (all data) 38 4.2.6. Kumeti at SH2(Napier) (32599), Jul-1975 to Jul-1980 (all data) 40 4.2.7. Kumeti at Te Rehunga (1032501), Jul-1981 to Jul-2004 (all data) 42 4.2.8. Makakahi at Hamua (1032518), Jul-1980 to Jul-2005 (all data) 44 4.2.9. Makino at Boness Rd (1032564), Jul-1992 to Jul-2006 (all data) 46 4.2.10. Makuri at Tuscan Hills (1032591), Jul-2001 to Jul-2006 (all data) 48 4.2.11. Manawatu at Hopelands (32504), Jul-1948 to Jul-2005 (all data) 50 4.2.12. Manawatu at Opiki (synthetic) (1932501), Jul-1980 to Jul-2006 (all data) 52 4.2.13. Manawatu at Palmerston North All (300), Jul-1923 to Jul-2005 (all data) 54 4.2.14. Manawatu at Upper Gorge (1232566), Jul-1979 to Jul-2003 (all data) 56 4.2.15. Manawatu at Weber Rd (32503), Jul-1955 to Jul-2004 (all data) 58 4.2.16. Manga-Atua at Hopelands Rd (1232564), Jul-1980 to Jul-1989 (all data) 60 4.2.17. Mangahao at Ballance (32526), Jul-1962 to Jul-2004 (all data) 62 4.2.18. Mangatainoka at Larsons Br (1032555), Jul-1983 to Jul-2006 (all data) 64 4.2.19. Mangatainoka at Pahiatua All (400), Jul-1954 to Jul-2005 (all data) 66 4.2.20. Mangatera at Dannevirke 1 (synthetic) (32541), Jul-1955 to Jul-2004 (all data) 68 4.2.21. Mangatera at Dannevirke 2 (synthetic) (500), Jul-1955 to Jul-2004 (all data) 70 4.2.22. Oroua at Almadale All (800), Jul-1948 to Jul-2004 (all data) 72 4.2.23. Oroua at Awahuri Br (1932512), Jul-1992 to Jul-2004 (all data) 74 4.2.24. Oroua at Kawa Wool (synthetic) (700), Jul-1967 to Jul-2004 (all data) 76 4.2.25. Pohangina at Mais Reach (32576), Jul-1969 to Jul-2005 (all data) 78 4.2.26. Tamaki at SH2(Napier) (1032503), Jul-1977 to Jul-1983 (all data) 80 4.2.27. Tamaki at Stephensons (1332556), Dec-2003 to Apr-2005 (all data) 82 4.2.28. Tamaki at Water Supply Weir (1032504), Jul-1983 to Jul-2004 (all data) 84 4.2.29. Tiraumea at Ngaturi (32529), Jul-1980 to Jul-2004 (all data) 86 4.2.30. Tokomaru All (900), Jul-1980 to Jul-2005 (all data) 88 4.2.31. Turitea at Ngahere Park Rd (1132501), Jul-2001 to Jul-2006 (all data) 90 4.2.32. Puke Puke at Lake Outlet (32602), Jul-1971 to Jul-1980 (all data) 92 4.3. Rangitikei Catchments 95 4.3.1. Forest Rd Drain at Drop Structure (32747), Jul-1974 to Jul-2006 (all data) 98 4.3.2. Hautapu Taihape All (100), Jul-1963 to Jul-2004 (all data) 100 4.3.3. Makohine at Viaduct (32754), Jul-1977 to Jul-2004 (all data) 102 4.3.4. Maungaraupi at Maungaraupi (32723), Jul-1970 to Jul-1975 (all data) 104 4.3.5. Moawhango at Moawhango (32733), Jul-1964 to Jul-2005 (all data) 106 4.3.6. Moawhango at Moawhango (32733), Jul-1964 to Jul-1978 (pre- diversion) 108 4.3.7. Moawhango at Moawhango (32733), Jul-1979 to Jul-2004 (post- diversion) 110 4.3.8. Moawhango at Moawhango (sim natural) (327330), Jul-1964 to Jul- 2003 (all data) 112 4.3.9. Moawhango at Moawhango (sim natural) (327330), Jul-1964 to Jul- 1978 (pre-diversion) 114 4.3.10. Moawhango at Moawhango (sim natural) (327330), Jul-1979 to Jul- 2003 (post-diversion) 116 4.3.11. Moawhango at Waiouru (32732), Jul-1960 to Jul-2005 (all data) 118 4.3.12. Moawhango at Waiouru (32732), Jul-1960 to Jul-1978 (pre-diversion) 120 4.3.13. Moawhango at Waiouru (32732), Jul-1979 to Jul-2004 (post-diversion) 122 4.3.14. Moawhango at Waiouru (sim natural) (46060), Jul-1960 to Jul-2003 (all data) 124 4.3.15. Moawhango at Waiouru (sim natural) (46060), Jul-1960 to Jul-1978 (pre-diversion) 126 4.3.16. Moawhango at Waiouru (sim natural) (46060), Jul-1979 to Jul-2003 (post-diversion) 128 4.3.17. Porewa at Tututotara (32715), Jul-1963 to Jul-1991 (all data) 130 4.3.18. Rangitawa at Halcombe (32735), Jul-1969 to Jul-1980 (all data) 132 4.3.19. Rangitikei at Mangaweka (32702), Jul-1969 to Jul-2004 (all data) 134 4.3.20. Rangitikei at Mangaweka (32702), Jul-1969 to Jul-1978 (pre-diversion) 136 4.3.21. Rangitikei at Mangaweka (32702), Jul-1979 to Jul-2004 (post- diversion) 138 4.3.22. Rangitikei at Mangaweka (sim natural) (327020), Jul-1963 to Jul-2003 (all data) 140 4.3.23. Rangitikei at Mangaweka (sim natural) (327020), Jul-1963 to Jul-1978 (pre-diversion) 142 4.3.24. Rangitikei at Mangaweka (sim natural) (327020), Jul-1979 to Jul-2003 (post-diversion) 144 4.3.25. Rangitikei at Onepuhi (32703), Jul-2002 to Jul-2005 (post-diversion) 146 4.3.26. Rangitikei at Otara (32705), Jul-1963 to Jul-1969 (pre-diversion) 148 4.3.27. Rangitikei at Pukeokahu (32763), Jul-1999 to Jul-2005 (post-diversion) 150 4.3.28. Rangitikei at Springvale (32708), Jul-1964 to Jul-1973 (all data) 152 4.3.29. Tutaenui at Hammond St (32739), Jul-1968 to Jul-1987 (all data) 154 4.4. Turakina and Whangaehu Catchments 156 4.4.1. Turakina at Otairi (33004), Jul-1991 to Jul-2004 (all data) 158 4.4.2. Turakina at SH3 Br (33003), Jul-1977 to Jul-1992 (all data) 160 4.4.3. Makotuku at SH 49A Br (33117), Jul-1968 to Jul-2005 (all data) 162 4.4.4. Mangaetoroa at School (33115), Jul-1969 to Jul-2004 (all data) 164 4.4.5. Mangawhero at Ohakune All (600), Jul-1975 to Jul-2005 (all data) 166 4.4.6. Mangawhero at Ore Ore (33111), Jul-1962 to Jul-2004 (all data) 168 4.4.7. Tokiahuru at Whangaehu Junction (33112), Jul-1980 to Jul-1993 (post- diversion) 170 4.4.8. Wahianoa at Karioi (33116), Jul-1968 to Jul-1972 (pre-diversion) 172 4.4.9. Waitangi at Tangiwai (33114), Jul-1968 to Jul-1991 (all data) 174 4.4.10. Whangaehu at Karioi (33107), Jul-1963 to Jul-2003 (all data) 176 4.4.11. Whangaehu at Karioi (33107), Jul-1963 to Jul-1978 (pre-diversion) 178 4.4.12. Whangaehu at Karioi (33107), Jul-1979 to Jul-2003 (post-diversion) 180 4.4.13. Whangaehu at Karioi (sim natural) (331070), Jul-1963 to Jul-2003 (all data) 182 4.4.14. Whangaehu at Karioi (sim natural) (331070), Jul-1963 to Jul-1978 (pre- diversion) 184 4.4.15. Whangaehu at Karioi (sim natural) (331070), Jul-1979 to Jul-2003 (post-diversion) 186 4.4.16. Whangaehu at Kauangaroa (33101), Jul-1971 to Jul-2004 (all data) 188 4.4.17. Whangaehu at Kauangaroa (33101), Jul-1971 to Jul-1978 (pre- diversion) 190 4.4.18. Whangaehu at Kauangaroa (33101), Jul-1979 to Jul-2004 (post- diversion) 192 4.4.19.
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