FACILITATING MIGRATION MANAGEMENT Working IN NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA paper 3 Migration Data Needs and Availability in North and Central Asia 2 Facilitating Migration Management in North and Central Asia Migration Data Needs and Availability in North and Central Asia Report by Olga Chudinovskikh Title MIGRATION DATA NEEDS AND AVAILABILITY IN NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA 3 The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The opinions and estimates set forth in this publication are the responsibility of the authors and should not necessar- ily be considered as reflecting the views or carrying the endorsement of the United Nations. 3 Series FACILITATING MIGRATION MANAGEMENT IN NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA 4 Contents Introduction 5 Censuses as a source of information on international migration 11 Implementation of sample surveys to collect data on labour migration 23 Administrative data on migration 29 Concluding remarks 46 References 48 Annex 50 Title MIGRATION DATA NEEDS AND AVAILABILITY IN NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA 5 Introduction 3 Series FACILITATING MIGRATION MANAGEMENT IN NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA 6 s the role of international migration in the The development of statistics on international migra- modern world increases, its considerable tion in the countries of North and Central Asia,2 the Ascale and impact, both positive and negative, establishment of new sources and collection of new needs meaningful and, most importantly, informed types of data and a shift of interest from one type of policymaking. To manage the volume and direction statistics to others reflect the recent history of the of migration, the integration of migrants into the host process of migration and are associated with major community, the presence of foreigners in the labour changes in the economic and social life of each State, market of a receiving country, or vice versa, participa- as well as the geopolitical situation in the subregion. tion of nationals of a sending country in the workforce This review contains a description of the current status of foreign States, etc., requires comprehensive statistics of demand and the availability of data on international showing not only the current situation, but also trends migration in those countries of the subregion for which over a period of time. The data should not only reflect information was available. Statistics given in the text the scale of migration, but also needs to be disaggre- do not imply in-depth analysis of migration trends, gated by key variables (citizenship, gender, age, skills they merely illustrate the existence and potential of the and occupations, etc.) to reflect the structure of flows information available in the countries. Information on and stocks of international migrants. A key role of mi- data sources and availability in Turkmenistan is not gration statistics is that, on the one hand, they suggest provided in the present paper due to the lack of public which aspects of the migration process need regulation access to this information and the absence of publica- and, on the other hand, they allow for the evaluation tions based on national data on migration. of the effectiveness of decisions already taken and the addition, if required, of necessary adjustments. The problem of correctly measuring migration is ex- Background tremely complex. This is due to the diversity of forms of human mobility, the possibility of repeat migration After the collapse of the Soviet Union, its territory and different timelines, reasons and directions of became a scene of large-scale migration processes. In movement, which are not always possible to capture the first half of 1990, the former republics of the Soviet using a single source of data or method of collecting Union were faced with the challenge of dealing with information. The development of data sources on new phenomena such as flows of forced migrants and a population and migration, and modernization of data significant movement of minority populations from the collection technologies (including data on migration), different republics of the Soviet Union to the countries largely depends on the economic possibilities of an where their ethnicities prevailed. In some cases, armed individual country and does not always coincide with conflicts led to the mass movement of the population, their actual needs. In this case, lack of information forming flows of refugees and internally displaced could be partly compensated for by data collected in persons. This had changed by the mid-1990s, when the a partner country in migration exchange and various economic factors of migration became the dominant indirect estimates. But in any case, some data must be driving force in the subregion, directing the flow of available, without which indirect estimates are hardly migrants from countries with low living standards possible.1 to a relatively prosperous Russian Federation and, to a lesser extent, to Kazakhstan. The mobility of the population of Central Asia within the last 15 years has 1 For example, an estimate of net migration in a country during the intercensal period can be obtained using the method of demographic continued to increase (Chudinovskikh and Denisenko, balance, with data on population at the dates of the two censuses 2013). and the number of births and deaths for the intercensal interval, which are available in most countries. An estimate of the number of migrants illegally staying in the country can be obtained through the so-called “residual method”, which is based on a comparison of (for instance) data collected during a census or survey, and showing the residual number of foreigners living in the country with administra- tive statistics on the stock of foreigners that have a right to remain in 2 Hereinafter: Armenia; Azerbaijan; Georgia; Kazakhstan; Kyrgyzstan; the country. Russian Federation; Tajikistan; Turkmenistan; and Uzbekistan. Title MIGRATION DATA NEEDS AND AVAILABILITY IN NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA 7 TABLE 1: LONG-TERM IMMIGRATION AND LABOUR MIGRATION FLOWS TO THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION BETWEEN 2007 AND 2014, THOUSANDS 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total issued 2 179.4 2 072.8 1 473.4 1 329.9 2 093 2 698.8 2 929.2 3 714.1 permission to worka Immigration flows 287.0 281.6 279.9 191.7 356.5 417.7 482.2 578.5 Sources: Federal Migration Service of the Russian Federation; Rosstat. a Since 2010, the figures sum up different types of permissions: regular work permits, mainly quota-based, work permits issued to highly skilled specialists (a special category of workers) and licences (patents) sold to citizens of visa-free CIS Member States, which allow simplified access to the labour market. These new movements of people coincided with new Most of the movements of people occur within the institutional challenges. After obtaining independence, subregion, and the Russian Federation is the main these countries faced the problem of establishing State destination country for both long-term and short-term borders and national institutions of citizenship, and migrants from other countries. Between 2000 and creating legislation regulating the issues of migration 2014, the Russian Federation had a positive net migra- and naturalization. All migration-related events were tion balance with all CIS countries (except Belarus in supposed to include registration, measurement and some years). The proportion of permanent migrants to statistical generalization. the Russian Federation ranged from 50 to more than 80 per cent in the countries for which statistics were Currently, the scale of migration in the subregion available (table 10). remains considerable. Annually, hundreds of thou- sands of migrants change their country of permanent The majority of temporary labour migrants also move residence, while temporary labour migration involves to the Russian Federation. Within the last 10 years, millions. According to estimates in pre-crisis years, according to the results of sample surveys and experts’ the annual number of temporary labour migrants estimates, between 50 and 80 (and even more) per cent moving from one country of the Commonwealth of labour migrants from most countries in the region of Independent States (CIS) to another could reach worked in the Russian Federation. In contrast, after its between 7 and 10 million. Migrant workers make up collapse, there was a marked weakening in migration a considerable part of the working population of these ties between the countries of the former Soviet Union countries. Several countries in the subregion occupy (except the Russian Federation) — for example, between a leading position in the World Bank ranking of the Ukraine and the countries of Central Asia, Armenia and volume of remittances from labour migrants; remit- Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan and other countries. tances as a percentage of national GDP are considerable in Tajikistan (49 per cent), Kyrgyzstan (32 per cent) The volume of temporary migration significantly and Armenia (21 per cent). In Georgia and Uzbekistan exceeds migration for permanent residence. Table 1 they stand at about 12 per cent of GDP.3 The majority of shows that the flows of temporary labour migration remittances in many countries come from migrants in for the reference period are at least six times as large the Russian Federation (ILO, 2010). as the flows of long-term migration in the Russian Federation.4 3 World Bank estimates 2013 (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ 4 With the adoption by Rosstat of a new accounting methodology, BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS). since 2011 these flows have partly overlapped. For details, see below. 3 Series FACILITATING MIGRATION MANAGEMENT IN NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA 8 One of the negative aspects of mass labour migration countries of the subregion, and are on the agendas of in the region is the widespread undocumented em- international organizations, including United Nations ployment of migrant workers.