Western Europe Pay TV Forecasts

Table of Contents

Published in May 2017, this 186-page PDF and excel report combines two of last year’s reports: Digital TV Western Europe Forecasts and the Western Europe Pay TV Operator Forecasts in one convenient place. The report comes in five parts:

• Executive summary and regional forecasts, with handy comparison tables to reveal the best growth prospects; • Regional forecasts summary from 2010 to 2022 by platform, by household penetration, by pay TV subscribers and by pay TV revenues; • Major pay TV operators; • Country profiles and analysis for 18 territories; • Detailed forecasts for 18 countries, including 77 operators.

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Forecasts for the following 18 countries and 77 operators:

Country No of ops Operators

Austria 4 Telekom Austria; UPC; Sky; Liwest Belgium 5 Belgacom; ; ; VOO; Telesat/TV Vlaanderen

Denmark 6 ; Viasat; You See; Stofa; Boxer; TDC Finland 5 Elisa; Teliasonera; DNA; Canal Digital; Viasat France 7 Orange; SFR; CanalSat; Numericable; Free; Bouygues; TNT Germany 6 Kabel Deutschland; Vodafone; DT/T-Home; Sky; Unitymedia; Telecolumbus Iceland 2 Vodafone, Siminn

Ireland 3 UPC; Sky;

Italy 3 Mediaset; Sky; Telecom Italia Luxembourg 2 Tele des P&T; Eltrona Malta 2 Melita; Go

Netherlands 5 UPC/; ; Tele 2; KPN/

Norway 5 Canal Digital; Viasat; Riks TV; ; Get Portugal 4 Meo/PT; NOS/Zon; /Cabovisao; Vodafone Spain 5 Ono/Vodafone; Canal Plus/Telefonica/Movistar; Euskatel; Orange; Sweden 6 Canal Digital; Viasat; Com Hem; Telia; Boxer; Telenor Switzerland 3 ; UPC/Cablecom; Sunrise

UK 4 Sky; Virgin; BT; TalkTalk

SAMPLE: Denmark pay TV briefing

• Pay TV penetration already runs at 92% - so it is unlikely to grow. Pay TV penetration shot up in 2011 as public broadcaster TV2 moved from the FTA DTT to the pay DTT option. However, pay DTT is forecast to fall. Competition will intensify, leading to lower TV ARPU figures and falling pay TV revenues from 2015 onwards.

• Full digital TV conversion will be achieved in 2017. Cable TV penetration is at 57% of homes, down from 67% in 2010. IPTV will continue to grow. Pay satellite TV will continue to experience falling subs numbers as homes convert to cheaper options and bundles on other platforms, with pay DTT also falling.

• Denmark has 1.43 million cable households, although saturation point has been reached. Leading operators TDC’s YouSee and Stofa together control about 90% of cable subs.

• Stofa’s cable subscription growth has been marginal in recent years. The company has about 320,000 subs, of which half are counted via third-party local operators (mostly 300 housing associations). We do not expect any TV subscriber growth. Digital subs pay DKK229-549/month ($32.67-78.32) for 27- 60 channels. About 200,000 subs also take broadband services. In October 2012, co-operative Syd Energi bought Stofa from Sweden’s Ratos DKK1,900 million. In early 2015, Stofa took a 25% stake in broadband provider Waoo!

TDC TV and YouSee operational highlights 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TDC TV subs (000) 128 152 190 218 258 277 YouSee TV subs (000) 1,179 1,192 1,166 1,152 1,099 Total TV subs (000) 1,392 1,393 1,420 1,377 1,379 TDC TV ARPU (DKK) 335 333 308 323 315 305 YouSee TV ARPU (DKK) 214 226 234 234 242 TV ARPU (DKK) 254 256 Double-play subs (000) 304 414 434 457 Triple-play subs (000) - 83 80 78 440 475 Source: TDC

• TDC had 1.38 million basic cable subs at end-2016; flat year-on-year. TDC’s cable (YouSee) and IPTV interests accounted for 56% of Denmark’s pay TV subscribers at end-2016. TDC TV controls about two-thirds of the IPTV market; with 297,000 subscribers at end-2016.

• The company introduced a 300Mbps broadband service in January 2015. Mobile services were added in January 2013. The HBO SVOD platform is also available.

• The company launched quad-play services in 2011 across its HFC network that covers 1.5 million premises. By 2018, TDC wants to be able to offer 50% of households 1,000Mbps, 70% 100Mbps and 100% 10Mbps. TDC had 2.59 million mobile subs and 1.31 million broadband ones by end-2016. About 332,000 subs took TV, broadband and mobile.

Fixed IPTV subs by operator 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jun 15 TDC 121,791 155,931 194,153 228,317 268,727 282,288 EnergiMidt 15,907 21,960 29,462 28,390 30,174 30,925 Fibia 28,784 27,242 SE 0 14,906 19,647 18,633 SEAS NVE 18,885 Dansk Bredband 20,997 14,171 Waoo 9,884 13,469 TRE-FOR 7,829 Others 41,362 45,043 77,931 64,980 75,174 80,390 Total 217,770 265,480 321,193 359,771 402,859 420,845 Source: ENS

• ENS estimated 420,845 IPTV subscribers at June 2015. IPTV had 18.1% TV household penetration at end-2016, with 20.8% expected by 2022. Erhversstyrelsen estimated 2,392,000 fixed broadband subs by June 2015.

Telia subscriber growth (000) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sweden broadband 1,129 1,149 1,175 1,208 1,275 1,306 1,299 Sweden TV 450 515 580 641 697 730 765 Sweden TV ARPU 156 159 161 167 185 SEK Finland broadband 476 491 501 532 561 527 497 Finland TV 218 355 403 436 481 486 489 Finland TV ARPU € 8.70 8.90 8.80 9.00 9.60 Norway broadband 195 188 184 0 0 0 0 Norway TV 6 7 12 0 0 0 0 Denmark bband 67 80 87 99 114 135 128 Denmark TV 5 10 14 18 20 28 28 Denmark TV ARPU 322 345 392 376 348 DKK Source: Telia

• Telia had 28,000 IPTV subscribers in Denmark by end-2016, flat year-on-year. Telia began offering a la carte channel selection in late 2013.

• Viasat and Canal Digital compete for Scandinavian pay satellite TV subs, together recorded 5.9% penetration in Denmark at end-2016 (down from 9.4% in 2010). However, pay satellite TV subscriber numbers are falling as households opt for the less expensive alternatives on offer.

Canal Digital subscribers by country (000) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Norway 499 489 481 468 456 438 Sweden 310 307 308 310 310 297 Finland 49 50 52 53 55 53 Denmark 108 98 88 81 77 74 Total 96 5 945 929 912 897 862 ARPU (NOK) 354 373 377 389 382 Source: Canal Digital. Note: 2016 country estimates by Digital TV Research

• Telenor-owned Canal Digital had 862,000 premium satellite TV subscribers across the region by end-2016, down by 103,000 since end-2011. ARPU fell in 2016. Danish subscriber numbers are falling. Canal Digital has lost subscribers across the region since 2008 due to greater competition and the loss of English Premier League soccer rights.

Viasat Nordic pay TV operations (000) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Denmark 106 104 98 92 86 84 75 Finland 46 45 42 40 36 34 31 Norway 159 153 131 118 111 108 97 Sweden 352 336 321 309 293 282 253 Premium satellite TV 663 638 592 559 526 508 456 subs of which ViasatPlus 158 188 192 of which multiroom 235 250 250 235 of which HD 210 297 341 358 Basic satellite TV 43 38 46 40 33 18 subs Wholesale cable & 394 421 427 418 456 506 544 IPTV subs Annualized ARPU 4,555 4,791 4,988 5,075 5,254 5,161 5,508 (SEK) Source: Modern Times Group. Country-by-country estimates by Digital TV Research

• Competition comes from Viasat, which is owned by Sweden’s Modern Times Group. Viasat Nordic lost 52,000 premium pay satellite TV subscribers across Sweden, Denmark, Norway and Finland in 2016 – or 10% of its subs base. The platform has lost 107,000 subs since 2010. On the plus side, Viasat is gaining wholesale subscribers and ARPU.

• The company does not break down subscriber figures by country, but we estimate that about 75,000 subs were in Denmark at end-2016 – nearly the same as Canal Digital. This total will fall to 66,000 by 2022.

• In October 2013, MTG renewed a deal with UEFA to screen Champions League soccer in Sweden, Denmark and Norway from the 2015/16 season to the 2017/2018 season. In October 2015, Viasat also signed up the rights to English Premier League soccer for a further three seasons from 2016/17 in Sweden, Finland and Denmark.

• In November 2009, Boxer expanded its pay DTT offer when three MPEG-4 multiplexes were added. Boxer now provides up to 29 pay channels (DKK70- 499/month, $9.99-71.18) and the FTA ones. Boxer added HD channels in April 2012 by converting one of its multiplexes to DVB-T2. A la carte channel offers started in early 2014.

• Its parent company reported 280,000 Danish subscribers by late 2016, down from 335,000 in 2013. We believe that this total will continue to fall; reaching 241,000 by 2021. In December 2016, SE, owner of cable operator Stofa, acquired Boxer from Sweden’s Teracom.

• Analog switch-off was completed in November 2009. About 1.6 million homes have a DTT settop box, although most use them for secondary sets. About a fifth of homes are considered primary DTT. The public service broadcasters operate two multiplexes, which trade as Digi-TV and offer eight FTA national channels.

Denmark pay TV forecasts

2010 20 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

11

Households (000) TV households (000) Digital cable subs (000) Analog cable subs (000) Pay IPTV subscribers (000) Pay digital Satellite TV subs (000) Digital Satellite TV HH (000) Analog Satellite TV HH (000) Analog terrestrial households (000) Primary FTA DTT households (000) Primary Pay DTT households (000)

Digital homes (000) Analog homes (000) Pay TV subscribers (000) Total DTT homes (000)

Digital cable subs/TV HH Analog cable subs/TV HH Pay IPTV subs/TV HH Pay Satellite TV/TV HH Digital free Satellite TV/TV HH Analog Satellite TV/TV HH Analog terrestrial/TVHH Primary FTA DTT/TV HH Primary pay DTT/TV HH

TVHH/Total HH Digital/TV HH Analog/TV HH Pay TV Subs/TV HH Total DTT homes/TVHH

Stand-alone digital cable subs (000) Double-play digital cable subs (000) Triple-play digital cable subs (000)

Stand-alone pay IPTV subs (000) Double-play pay IPTV subs (000) Triple-play pay IPTV subs (000)

Denmark pay TV forecasts

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Revenues (US$ million) Stand-alone digital cable revs Double-play dig cable TV revs Triple-play digital cable TV revs Digital cable TV subs revenues Digital cable TV on-demand revs Digital cable TV revenues Analog cable TV subs revs Cable TV revenues

Stand-alone IPTV revenues Double-play IPTV revenues Triple-play IPTV revenues IPTV subscription revenues IPTV on-demand revenues IPTV revenues

Satellite TV subscription revs Satellite TV on-demand revs Satellite TV revenues

DTT subscription revs DTT on-demand revenues DTT revenues

Subscription revenues On-demand revenues Total revenues

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU - US$) Stand-alone digital cable subs Double-play dig cable TV subs Triple-play digital cable TV subs Ave digital cable (subs & VOD) Analog cable TV subs Stand-alone IPTV subs Double-play IPTV subs Triple-play IPTV subs Average IPTV (subs and VOD) Pay Satellite TV (subs) Pay Satellite TV (subs and PPV) Pay DTT (subs) Pay DTT (subs and PPV) Average monthly ARPU

Denmark pay TV forecasts

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Pay TV subscribers by operator (000) Stofa (digital cable) Stofa (analog cable) Stofa (total) You See (digital cable) You See (analog cable) You See (total) TDC (IPTV) Canal Digital (satellite) Viasat (satellite) Boxer (DTT) Others

Share of pay TV subscribers by operator % Stofa (digital cable) Stofa (analog cable) Stofa (total) You See (digital cable) You See (analog cable) You See (total) TDC (IPTV) Canal Digital (satellite) Viasat (satellite) Boxer (DTT) Others

Subscription & VOD revenues (US$ million) Stofa (digital cable) Stofa (analog cable) Stofa (total) You See (digital cable) You See (analog cable) You See (total) TDC (IPTV) Canal Digital (satellite) Viasat (satellite) Boxer (DTT) Others

Denmark pay TV forecasts

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Share of pay TV revenues by operator (%) Stofa (digital cable) Stofa (analog cable) Stofa (total) You See (digital cable) You See (analog cable) You See (total) TDC (IPTV) Canal Digital (satellite) Viasat (satellite) Boxer (DTT) Others

Average Revenue Per User (ARPU - US$) Stofa (digital cable) Stofa (analog cable) You See (digital cable) You See (analog cable) TDC (IPTV) Canal Digital (satellite) Viasat (satellite) Boxer (DTT) Source: digital TV research

Digital TV Research publication schedule for 2017 Title Publication Price 1 Sub-Saharan Africa Pay TV Forecasts January £1200/€1440/$1560 2 Middle East & North Africa Pay TV Forecasts February £1200/€1440/$1560 3 Asia Pacific Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560 4 Latin America Pay TV Forecasts March £1200/€1440/$1560 5 North America Pay TV Forecasts April £750/€900/$975 6 Eastern Europe Pay TV Forecasts April £1200/€1440/$1560 7 Western Europe Pay TV Forecasts May £1200/€1440/$1560 8 Global Pay TV Subscriber Forecasts May £1800/€2160/$2340 9 Global Pay TV Revenue Forecasts June £1800/€2160/$2340 10 Global Pay TV Operator Forecasts June £1800/€2160/$2340 11 Netflix Forecasts June £600/€720/$780 12 Global Pay TV Subscriber Databook July £900/€1080/$1170 13 Global Pay TV Revenue Databook July £900/€1080/$1170 14 Global Pay TV Operator Databook July £900/€1080/$1170 15 Sub-Saharan Africa OTT TV & Video £1200/€1440/$1560 Forecasts August 16 Middle East & North Africa OTT TV & Video £1200/€1440/$1560 Forecasts August 17 Asia Pacific OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £1200/€1440/$1560 18 Latin America OTT TV & Video Forecasts September £1200/€1440/$1560 19 North America OTT TV & Video Forecasts October £750/€900/$975 20 Eastern Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts October £1200/€1440/$1560 21 Western Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts November £1200/€1440/$1560 22 Global OTT TV & Video Forecasts November £1800/€2160/$2340 23 Global AVOD Forecasts November £1800/€2160/$2340 24 Global SVOD Forecasts December £1800/€2160/$2340 25 Global OTT TV & Video Databook December £900/€1080/$1170 26 Global SVOD Databook December £900/€1080/$1170 Please note that the regional Pay TV reports (1-7 above) contain the content from last year’s Digital TV series and the Pay TV Operator series – so two reports in one for 2017. Likewise, the regional OTT reports (15-21 above) contain the content from 2016’s OTT series as well as the content from 2016’s SVOD series.

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Digital TV Research publication schedule for 2016 Title Publication Price Date Middle East & Africa OTT TV & Video Forecasts May £900/$1350/€1125 Asia Pacific OTT TV & Video Forecasts June £900/$1350/€1125 Latin America OTT TV & Video Forecasts June £900/$1350/€1125 North America OTT TV & Video Forecasts June £500/$750/€625 Eastern Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts July £900/$1350/€1125 Western Europe OTT TV & Video Forecasts July £900/$1350/€1125 Global OTT TV & Video Forecasts July £1500/$2250/€1875 Middle East & Africa SVOD Forecasts October £900/$1350/€1125 Asia Pacific SVOD Forecasts October £900/$1350/€1125 Latin America SVOD Forecasts November £900/$1350/€1125 North America SVOD Forecasts November £500/$750/€625 Eastern Europe SVOD Forecasts November £900/$1350/€1125 Western Europe SVOD Forecasts December £900/$1350/€1125 Global SVOD Forecasts December £1500/$2250/€1875

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