First Nations Voters Can Decide the Election Outcome in 2021

The Assembly of First Nations has analyzed population data from Statistics Canada and ’s voting results from the 2019 Federal election and has highlighted 24 ridings across Canada where a) the representation of First Nations electors in a riding (%) was higher than the margin of victory (%) for the winning candidate in 2019 or b) First Nations electors represent at least 5.0% of electors in a riding and the difference between the margin of victory (%) for the winning candidate in 2019 and the representation of First Nations electors (%) was less than 5.

Below are 24 districts that could determine the outcome of the election if First Nations participated actively. All parties should consider the role that First Nations issues and electors play in the potential role of ‘kingmaker’ in the upcoming September 20, 2021 election. In this list 10 seats are held by Liberals, 8 by New Democrats, 5 by Conservatives, and 1 by the Bloc Québécois.

% of First % of FN Electors Province Federal Electoral District 2019 Winning Candidate 2019 MOV (%) Nations Electors Minus MOV %

1 MB Churchill--Keewatinook Aski NDP 26.6 63.3 36.7 Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill CPC 13.9 49.3 35.4 2 SK River 3 ON Kenora CPC 4.0 33.2 29.2 4 BC Skeena--Bulkley Valley NDP 7.7 27.5 19.8 5 YT Yukon LPC 0.7 17.4 16.7 6 NWT Northwest Territories Michael McLeod LPC 14.2 29.9 15.7 Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik-- Sylvie Bérubé BQ 7.8 19.2 11.4 7 QC Eeyou 8 NB Miramichi--Grand Lake LPC 1.1 6.7 5.6 9 ON Thunder Bay--Rainy River LPC 6.0 10.0 4.0 10 NS Sydney--Victoria LPC 3.2 6.6 3.4 11 BC North Island--Powell River NDP 5.3 7.3 2.0 12 MB NDP 7.5 8.9 1.4 13 SK West CPC 7.4 8.0 0.6 14 NL Long Range Mountains LPC 19.1 18.5 -0.6 15 ON Sault Ste. Marie LPC 6.9 6.2 -0.7 16 ON Timmins--James Bay NDP 13.5 11.4 -2.1 17 NL LPC 11.4 7.9 -3.5 18 Ontario Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing Carol Hughes NDP 15.4 11.8 -3.6 19 BC Cowichan--Malahat--Langford Alistair MacGregor NDP 10.1 5.3 -4.8 20 NS Cumberland--Colchester LPC 1.0 2.4 1.4 21 BC South Okanagan--West Kootenay Richard Cannings NDP 1.2 2.5 1.3 22 BC Port Moody--Coquitlam CPC 0.3 1.2 0.9 23 ON Hastings--Lennox and Addington CPC 4.2 4.8 0.6 24 BC Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam Ron McKinnon LPC 0.7 1.2 0.5

August 25, 2021

Other notable analysis of the 338 Federal Electoral Districts include:

 Of the top 25 FEDs for total First Nations electors (ranging from 7.5% to 63.3% of total electors): o Only 2 have First Nations MPs (Michael McLeod, Northwest Territories and Leah Gazan, Winnipeg Centre) o 11 are in the prairies, 5 in Ontario, 3 in BC, 2 in the Atlantic region, 2 in Quebec o 10 are held by Conservatives – of these 10, 4 have former Residential Schools within their boundaries. o 7 are held by Liberals – of these 7, 3 have former Residential Schools within their boundaries o 5 are held by New Democrats – of these 5, 3 have former Residential Schools within their boundaries o 2 are held by the Bloc Québécois – of these 2, both have former Residential Schools within their boundaries

% of First Residential School Province Federal Electoral District Party Nations in District? Electors 1 MB Churchill--Keewatinook Aski NDP 63.3 Yes (6) 2 SK Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River CPC 49.3 Yes (3) 3 ON Kenora CPC 33.2 Yes (7) 4 NWT Northwest Territories LPC 29.9 Yes (4) 5 BC Skeena--Bulkley Valley NDP 27.5 Yes (6) 6 QC Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou BQ 19.2 Yes (14) 7 NL Long Range Mountains LPC 18.5 Yes (8) 8 YT Yukon LPC 17.4 9 SK Battlefords--Lloydminster CPC 13.5 Yes (2) 10 MB Dauphin--Swan River--Neepawa CPC 13.3 11 SK Prince Albert CPC 12.6 Yes (1) 12 SK Regina--Qu'Appelle CPC 12.2 13 ON Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing NDP 11.8 14 AB Peace River--Westlock CPC 11.7 15 ON Timmins--James Bay NDP 11.4 Yes (2) 16 QC Manicouagan BQ 10.4 Yes (2) 17 ON Thunder Bay--Rainy River LPC 10.0 18 ON Thunder Bay--Superior North LPC 9.9 Yes (3) 19 AB Fort McMurray--Cold Lake CPC 9.2 Yes (1) 20 BC Cariboo--Prince George CPC 9.2 21 MB Winnipeg Centre NDP 8.9 22 SK Saskatoon West CPC 8.0 23 NL Labrador LPC 7.9 24 MB LPC 7.8 25 BC Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon CPC 7.5

August 25, 2021