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The Effect of Monetary Policy on Bank Wholesale Funding

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The Effect of Monetary Policy on Bank Wholesale Funding The Effect of Monetary Policy on Bank Wholesale Funding∗ Dong Beom Choi† Hyun-Soo Choi‡ Abstract We study how monetary policy affects the funding composition of the banking sec- tor. When monetary tightening reduces the retail deposit supply due to, for example, a decrease in bank reserves or in money demand, banks try to substitute the deposit outflows with more wholesale funding in order to mitigate the policy impact on their lending. Banks have varying degrees of accessibility to wholesale funding sources because of financial frictions, and those banks that are large or that have a greater reliance on wholesale funding increase their wholesale funding more. As a result, monetary tighten- ing increases both the reliance on and the concentration of wholesale funding within the banking sector, indicating that monetary tightening could increase systemic risk. For identification, we exploit regional age-demographics of bank customer-base as a measure of retail deposit supply elasticity to interest rate changes, and compare the effect on large and small banks within the age-demographic groups. Our findings also suggest that in- troducing liquidity requirements can bolster monetary policy transmission through the bank lending channel by limiting the funding substitution of large banks. ∗The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and are not necessarily reflective of the views at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. We thank Bo Becker, Markus Brunnermeier, Murillo Campello, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia (Discussant), Harrison Hong, Charles Kahn, William Lang (Discussant), Don Morgan, Teodora Paligorova (Discussant), Kwangwoo Park, Phil Strahan, Guillaume Vuillemey, and “Vish” Viswanathan, as well as the audiences of the IAES mini conference on the future of large financial institutions, Singapore Management University, SFS Finance Cavalcade, FRB Philadelphia Conference on the Interplay of Financial Regulations, Resilience, and Growth, WFA Meeting for their helpful comments. We also thank Ulysses Velasquez for research assistance. Any errors are our own. This draft: June 30, 2016 †Federal Reserve Bank of New York (e-mail: [email protected]) ‡Singapore Management University (e-mail: [email protected]) 1. Introduction The recent financial crisis clearly showed the risks of a short-term wholesale funding depen- dency in banks, critically increasing funding liquidity risks during the market disruption. In response, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision introduced new liquidity regulations, such as the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) and the net stable funding ratio (NSFR), to con- tain the excessive reliance on runnable funding in the banking sector. While previous studies have analyzed the risks of the reliance on wholesale funding during the crisis,1 it remains an open question as to what contributed to the rapid buildup of the banking sector’s reliance on wholesale funding running up to the crisis, as well as how the new liquidity regulations would interact with existing policy measures, in particular, monetary policy. In this paper, we examine the impact of monetary policy on bank funding composition, both in the time dimension and in the cross-sectional dimension. We argue that monetary tightening by central banks contributes to the buildup of banking sectors’ reliance on wholesale funding, as well as systemic imbalances. The distribution of the reliance on wholesale funding becomes more concentrated among heavy users or large banks. This implies that a financial system could become more vulnerable during monetary tightening in terms of funding liquidity risks and potential spillover effects (e.g., fire-sale externalities that are increasing in the bank asset size). We then discuss the implications of the interaction between the new liquidity regulations and monetary policy, both in terms of systemic stability (focusing on risks) and the monetary policy transmission mechanism (focusing on policy effectiveness). Bank borrowing can typically be divided into two sources, retail deposits and wholesale funding. Retail deposits, sometimes referred to as core deposits or core funding, represent funding from a bank’s traditional and regular customer base in the local geographic market. In contrast, wholesale funding is mostly supplied by other financial intermediaries, such as 1See, e.g., Gorton and Metrick (2012), Copeland et al. (2014), and Krishnamurthy et al. (2014) on the risks of Repo funding; Cornett et al. (2011), Ivashina and Scharfstein (2010), De Haas and Van Lelyveld (2014), and Dagher and Kazimov (2015) on the wholesale funding reliance and bank lending during the 2007–09 crisis; and Irani and Meisenzahl (2015) on the bank liquidity risks from the wholesale funding reliance and secondary market liquidation. 1 money market mutual funds, and raised through the money market (e.g., large certificates of deposit, foreign or brokered deposits, and repo funding). Retail deposits are cheaper in terms of funding costs (Berlin and Mester (1999), DeYoung and Rice (2004)), have lower interest rate-elasticity (Amel and Hannan (1999)) owing to transactional or storage (i.e., “monetary”) purposes of depositors, and are more “sticky” with regard to funding liquidity risks and sensitivity to financial markets conditions (Flannery and James (1984), Berlin and Mester (1999), Cornett et al. (2011)). Because the retail deposit supply is highly price-inelastic, banks often reach out to the wholesale funding markets when they wish to expand their lending. We first discuss the relationship between changes in monetary policy stances and the growth of wholesale funding reliance in the banking sector, where we measure the wholesale funding reliance of a bank as the ratio of total wholesale funding to retail deposits. Previous studies widely suggest that monetary tightening drains retail deposits from the banking sector (e.g., Bernanke and Blinder (1992); Kashyap and Stein (1995)) by decreasing bank reserves, and by raising the opportunity cost of holding such “bank money,” which pays upward- sticky interest, if any at all (Hannan and Berger (1991), Drechsler et al. (2015)). Facing the deposit outflows, banks increase their reliance on alternative funding sources, such as wholesale funding, in order to smooth their lending. Using quarterly panel data from the Consolidated Financial Statements for Holding Companies (“FR-Y9C”) and the Federal Reserve’s Report of Condition and Income (“Call Reports”) between 1992 and 2006, we find that changes in banks’ reliance on wholesale funding are positively associated with changes in the federal funds rate. Monetary tightening does decrease banks’ retail deposits and increase wholesale funding. Next, we analyze the cross-sectional implications of this funding substitution during mon- etary tightening. Using a simple model, we argue that banks facing fewer financial frictions in the wholesale funding market, in equilibrium, choose to use more wholesale funding and become larger. In response to monetary tightening, which causes retail deposit outflows to 2 squeeze lending, the banks increase their wholesale funding until the marginal cost of the funding is equal to the marginal product from lending. This implies that banks that are already large and sit on more wholesale funding add more wholesale funding, because they face a less elastic supply curve (i.e., the funding cost increases less rapidly as they increase their wholesale borrowing) due to the fewer financial frictions. As a result, the overall reliance on wholesale funding of the banking sector increases, and the increase is more pronounced in larger banks. The cross-sectional difference of the wholesale funding reliance would also increase rapidly during monetary tightening, because the heavier wholesale borrowers would add more wholesale borrowing. Our empirical analysis supports this prediction. When the policy rate increases, the funding substitution is more active for banks with greater assets, and banks with a greater reliance on wholesale funding experience larger changes in their reliance. Thus, wholesale funding in the financial system become more concentrated among such banks during monetary tightening. In addition to the change in bank funding composition, our model indicates that banks with more active funding substitution would be less affected by the lending channel. Defining the sensitivity of funding substitution to monetary policy as the correlation between the change in the federal funds rate and the change in wholesale funding reliance, we find that monetary policy has less impact on the lending of banks with a higher funding substitution sensitivity. Our empirical specifications, regressing bank-level balance sheet adjustments on changes in the monetary policy stance, could have an identification problem if our regression confounds the changes in bank loan demand. In order to mitigate this problem, we incorporate various controls that reflect loan demand in our main specification, including both macro and bank- level variables. In addition, we implement a robustness check that limits our sample to “local” banks that operate predominantly within a single MSA, with MSA-level controls reflecting local demand. In addition, we take advantage of demographic variations (among “senior” and “non- senior” bank customers) across regions. We argue that the deposit supply of seniors, who 3 should use bank deposit accounts primarily for “storage” purposes, would be less sensitive to a change in the policy rate than that of non-seniors,
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