Oct/Nov 2001 South Foreign Policy African Monitor

INSIDE Elections: More of the Same? State visit to Japan...... page 2 Prospects for SA–ASEAN Both Zambia and will be holding multiparty co-operation ...... page 4 elections at the end of the year. But will this ring in new changes?

Presidential and parliamentary elections in Zambia before the end of BRIEFS December 2001 and Madagascar’s presidential elections on 16 December bear special significance within the context of the New Partnership for A return to ‘Fortress Europe’? Africa’s Development (NEPAD). It remains to be seen how ‘free and fair’ By 2025 the EU will need 40m immigrants to they will be and to what extent they prove or disprove prevailing avoid a shrinking workforce. In Italy, illegal sentiment about democratic principles in Africa. immigrants reportedly sustain as much as The freeness and fairness of democratic elections are generally 70% of the underground economy. judged by two criteria. Firstly, the extent to which voters are informed Immigration and the free movement of and have freedom of choice when casting their votes; and secondly, the labour have been and continue to be critical extent to which opposition parties and the press have the right to express to the long-term economic growth of their opinions and campaign freely. Europe. The attacks of 11 September will Judging by the last two months’ events, Zambia’s general elections potentially strengthen the anti-immigration are bound to suffer the fate of its 1996 elections, which were riddled with lobby in Europe, especially in view of administrative shortcomings and accusations of gross electoral recent revelations that many of the terrorist manipulation. The recent judicial processes against Edith Nawakwi and cells had bases there. Dipak Patel, members of the opposition, and against members of the The International Organisation for independent press by the ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy Migration (IOM) expects that there will be: (MMD), are indicative of the problematic electoral environment in • a reassessment of integration policies Zambia. President Frederick Chiluba recently also lashed out against andpractices by EU states; perceived international interference in Zambian politics and went as far • a slowdown in the admission of as to accuse the British High Commission in Lusaka of involving itself asylum seekers and refugees; with members of the opposition and extending financial support to them. • increasing efforts to stem irregular International observers were also described as unwelcome. flows of migrants, especially from The prevailing sentiment among Zambians is general disillusionment transit regions, such as Eastern with the MMD due to its failure to deliver on its promises of a better life. Europe and the former Soviet Union; Corruption scandals in public office and the most recent failed attempt by • an increase in information-sharing President Chiluba to amend the constitution to allow him to stand for a and the integration of databases; third term, have contributed towards the MMD’s dwindling support. As a • a tightening of anti-smuggling and result, the MMD is involved in an all-out battle to ensure victory at the anti-trafficking programmes and their polls. State funds and resources—especially the state media—are used implementation; and unabashedly to further MMD’s election campaign. With the current maize • stricter border controls and crisis in the country, the MMD is said to be distributing maize on credit to identification procedures. voters in exchange for political support—a tactic reminiscent of Mugabe in previous elections in Zimbabwe. Doha: A Brief Guide In addition, constitutional amendments effected by the MMD government in 1996 have served the party well by eliminating the SAIIA has compiled a brief guide strongest opposition from the presidential race. In 1996, Kenneth Kaunda on the positions of SA and SADC was barred from running for the presidency because of the constitutional in preparation for the 4th WTO provision that both parents of presidential candidates should be Zambian ministerial meeting in Doha, by birth. Kaunda’s parents were born in Malawi, just as were Christon . Copies are obtainable Tembo’s of the Forum for Democratic Development (FDD). Tembo is from SAIIA. Please forward your currently touted as the toughest challenger in the upcoming elections to requests to: [email protected] Continued on page 2

The Foreign Policy Monitor is published by the South African Institute of International Affairs. www. wita.ac.za/saiia 2 SA on Japan’s Radar? Elections continued from page 1 In October this year President Levy Mwanawasa, the presidential candidate of the MMD. This is borne Thabo Mbeki became the first out by the FDD’s recent by-election gains. Eliminating Tembo from the foreign leader to pay an official race, in conjunction with the predicted low voter turnout, partly due to state visit to Japan under the new engineered anomalies in the registration process, will benefit the MMD Koizumi administration. His visit greatly at the polls. Zambia’s ‘first-past-the-post’ (FPTP) electoral system bolstered the momentum initiated could indeed lead to a result where the MMD gains the presidential seat by Prime Minister Junichiro by minority vote. Koizumi’s predecessor, Yoshiro The impact on investor and donor confidence in Zambia will be Mori. Mori earmarked South significant should the MMD remain in power. Its track record in the area Africa as a key state in Japan’s Africa of good governance is severely compromised. Reduced investment and policy and was the first serving donor aid will result in a further deterioration in living standards. Indeed, Japanese prime minister ever to the number of Zambians living on less than $1 a day has risen from around visit SA and Africa officially. For 69% in 1996 to nearly 80% in 2001. SA, Japan is an important trade and On the surface, Madagascar seems to offer a better lesson in African investment partner, while Japan democracy. Opposition parties are free to campaign and press freedom is regards SA as a key African state assured. President Didier Ratsiraka, who was ousted in 1993 after an and a critical partner in addressing autocratic reign of 14 years, was democratically re-elected on 31 January the development needs of Africa. 1997, and seems set to be re-elected to the presidency. His main opponent, Albert Zafy of the AFFA, resigned as president Japan pledgespledges continued continued of Madagascar in 1996 after a motion for his impeachment was passed by supportsupport to SA, to SA, while while Japa- the National Assembly, for numerous contraventions of the constitution. neseJapanese ODA toODA Africa to Africacomes Indeed, many Malagasy believe that Zafy is responsible for Madagascar’s comesunder under intense intense scrutiny. scrutiny. economic woes. Agriculture employs 80% of the workforce of the island’s Six ministers accompanied 14m people and generates around one-third of GDP—and with prawns Mbeki and in foreign policy circles and cotton cloth the bulk of export earnings. Madagascar’s current GNP the visit was declared a major per capita (in purchasing power parity terms) is just $900, in the same political and economic success. league as Tajikistan, Uganda, Nigeria, and Zambia. During the three-day visit from 1 - 3 Should Ratsiraka be re-elected, there is a possibility that Madagascar October a number of issues were could become a federal state. He has pursued this goal throughout his discussed, including African political career. Ratsiraka’s claims that ‘decentralisation is transparent regional and multilateral matters, and that it brings government closer to the people’ are disputed by the development, conflict resolution, opposition, who argue that Ratsiraka is in fact fighting against the refugee aid, and wide-ranging centralised power of the long-dominant Merina ethnic group of the bilateral issues. Japan has spent Antananarivo region and that federalism will give him an acceptable $600m on conflict resolution in structural guise for the realignment of political power in his favour. Africa since 1994. The two countries Symptomatic of both elections is the lack of substantial alternative singled out the importance of candidates, policies of note and parties. The result has been voter apathy enhancing tourism, cultural and and a predisposition towards sticking ‘with the devil you know’— sporting exchanges within the providing sustenance to the belief that democracy adds little value to the framework of the Japan Exchange lives of ordinary citizens. and Teaching programme (JET) Free and fair elections in Zambia under the current circumstances and the Japan Overseas Co- seem improbable—emphasising the importance of the presence of operation Volunteers (JOCV) programmes. Tokyo and Pretoria international and regional election observers. has already also vowed to start negotiations been approached to send observers to Zambia and has indicated its with a view to reach an agreement willingness to do so. But perhaps international observers should ask on science and technology co- themselves whether they do not perpetuate the ‘failure’ of democracy in operation. many elections in Africa through their de facto endorsement in some SA is Japan’s leading trading instances of a clearly flawed electioneering process. partner in Africa, while Tokyo is Indeed, the instances are rare where international observers have Pretoria’s fourth largest trade partner refused to accept the ‘official’ results and their options are limited even if in the world. At the close of 2000, obvious violations occur. It is a clear challenge to the international total trade between the two community—and closer to home—to the drivers of NEPAD, to elaborate countries stood at R31.7bn of which on commensurate international and regional steps where elections are Japan exported goods to the value clearly found to be biased. of R15.4bn to SA. These include general and electronic machinery, 3 automobiles and auto parts. Goods imported from SA, include, food HIV/AIDS Drugs Reprieve products, metal products (steel in particular), crude metals, coal, and gold. In a seeming about-turn the US recently In 1994, following the inauguration of President Nelson Mandela, announced a five-year moratorium on Japan granted South Africa an assistance package of $1.5bn. Another patent protection for developing alternative package to the value of $1.5 bn was extended to South Africa, in 1999, generic drugs for the treatment of HIV/ although South Africa has loathed availing itself of the concessional loans Aids, tuberculosis and malaria. The US forming part of the package. indicated that there would be no retaliation Pretoria also continues to benefit from Tokyo’s foreign direct either bilaterally or within the WTO investment initiatives, exceeding R3.7bn in 1999. This has been directed framework should a country break a US specifically at the motor vehicle industry and the banking sector. More company’s pharmaceutical patents without recently Sasol and Mitsubishi Chemical Corporation (MCC) entered into a due process of law or compensation. joint project to build a plant in SA to manufacture chemical monomers In addition the US proposed a 10- which are used in water-based coatings, inks and adhesives. The first year extension for pharmaceutical patents phase, with a value of about $200m, has already been approved. MCC will on the timetable for Trips compliance by provide 25% of the funding developing nations, from 2006-2016. The Japan-South African Partnership required for the project. 10-year extension would be available to Provision has been made to countries officially classified by the World Japan and SA signed a partnership expand the plant in the next Bank as least developed. agreement on 9 April 1998. A first meeting 5-8 years if necessary with a Meanwhile Medecins Sans to promote Japanese-SA business co- similar investment. Frontieres reported last month that not a operation within the framework of this One of the main single pharmaceutical company out of 11 agreement was held on 3 October. Mr discussion points during surveyed with combined yearly sales of Satoru Anzaki, chairman of Komatsu and the visit was the New Africa $117bn was developing drugs for the Japan Federation of Economic Initiative (NAI), now the diseases affecting mainly the poor. Organisations (Keidanren) Committee, Mr New Programme for Africa’s Lesley Boyd of the Anglo American Instead, most companies are developing Development (NEPAD). Corporation and Mr Tokyo Sexwale of drugs for sleeping disorders, impotence Tokyo has pledged Mvelaphanda Holdings, acted as chairs. and obesity —reflecting the fact that ‘Japan expressed its commitment to continued support for the programme and has profitability, not public health needs drive encourage private investment in African most research and development. Only countries, including Southern Africa, while proposed that ‘the NAI should be one of the central 20% of international drug sales are SA acknowledged the importance of efforts accrued from the 80% of the world to improve its own investment themes to be discussed at the population living in the developing world. environment’. However, the current world Tokyo International economic slowdown, will mean only a Conference on African trickle of investment from Japan to South Development (TICAD) Africa. Ministerial Meeting in Tokyo scheduled for Calendar December 2001’. Yet verbal pledges are very far from actual funding commitments. October - December 2001 Japanese ODA has come under growing domestic scrutiny and many 5-10 November: Conference on Japanese favour cutting ODA to help curtail Japan’s huge fiscal debt. A 3% Stability, Security, Development & reduction is expected in this fiscal year followed by cuts of between 10- Co-operation in Africa, South Africa 15% in future years. Despite these proposed cuts, Japanese ODA will remain significant. Japan has been the world’s largest provider of development aid since 1991, 9-13 November : Fourth Ministerial although the volume and value of its aid to Africa has always been smaller Conference of the WTO, Doha, than the ODA to Asia. In 1999, Africa received $995m (9.5%) of Japan’s total Qatar bilateral ODA, while Asia received $6.6bn (63.2%). Ghana has been the biggest recipient of Japanese ODA, followed by and th respectively. 10-16 November: 56 UN General Some analysts argue that the shift away from quantity to quality is a Assembly Debate, New York good thing. For Africa, and indeed the NEPAD, it is important to harness the intricate balance that has always accompanied Japanese ODA. On the 12-16 November: International one hand, its mercantilistic and nationalistic nature favours the Japanese Telecommunication Union, ITU private sector through tied loans in tough domestic economic conditions, Telecom Exhibition–Africa, South a clear disadvantage for Africa which accounts for only 1.3% of total Africa Japanese trade. On the other hand, Japan places a growing premium on accountability, true partnerships, poverty alleviation, and social and human resource development. 3-4 December: TICAD Ministerial It is with regard to the latter that NEPAD will have to prove that it Preparatory Meeting, Tokyo presents an accountable framework for an increasingly sceptical Japanese constituency. 4

Spreading the Wings of the Trade Butterfly SA might well be advised to rather pursue bilateral trade agreements with ASEAN, to further SADC– ASEAN relations, than waiting for the slowest nation to dictate the pace of intra-regional trade.

SA’s minister of trade and industry, growth of -0.9% and -2.4% this year own free trade arrangements, Alec Erwin, has long articulated a respectively.The global economic including with New Zealand (in trade and investment concept of a downturn is expected to create greater effect from 1 January 2001), China, butterfly: with the thorax running impetus on deepening integration Mexico, US, , Japan, the along South Africa’s traditional among the ASEAN members, currently European Free Trade Area (EFTA) European and Western routes, committed to the creation of an and Canada. NZ and Australia— and new links being established ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) by themselves in the ‘Closer Economic through the wings with Latin 2003. Intra-ASEAN trade amounts to Relationship’—had originally America and Asia. 22% of total trade. hoped to secure a trade relationship The Latin American wing has However, ASEAN continues to with AFTA, but this was apparently already been put in place with the face the potential for ongoing blocked by (given signature of an agreement in instability in . The economic sensitivities over car imports and its December 2000 in Brazil between and political situation in Malaysia, poor political relationship with South Africa and Mercosur regional analysts predict, might also Canberra) and Indonesia (with (Southern Cone) to negotiate a free deteriorate with Mahathir’s hand- textile sensitivities and also a trade agreement (FTA). Focus could over of power. There also remain change in mood with Canberra now shift to the opportunities differences in expectations and over ). , which offered by Asia. development between the established has suffered in an AFTA context SADC is made up of 14 states six ASEAN members (Malaysia, because of the Malaysian exemption with a total of 200m people and a Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, to reduce tariffs on cars until 2005, is combined market of $185bn. By Brunei and the Philippines) and the also looking at FTAs with Australia, comparison, the Association of comparative newcomers (Laos, Burma, Korea and Chile. Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Cambodia and Vietnam). Perhaps Singapore’s agreement with comprises ten members with a most importantly, there is also the NZ has resulted in a 20% increase combined GDP of $465bn and question about how ASEAN should in trade in 2001 over the previous 500m in overall population. engage with the neighbouring ‘big- year to date. Its agreements with However, ASEAN is faced brother’ and potential arch-competitor Australia, EFTA and Japan are with two ongoing structural and China. Today China receives around expected to be concluded this year. three environmental challenges. 80% of East Asia’s FDI and ASEAN There is no reason why SA Like SADC, it is reliant on members just 20%, a reversal from a might not look seriously at this consensus between members and few years back—around $40bn to option, particularly since the eastern committed to the principle of $10bn in 2000. wing of Minister Erwin’s trade and sovereign non-interference. This AFTA has thus not yet established investment ‘butterfly’ has received means that initiatives move only as FTAs with other countries, and appears less attention compared to Latin fast and deep as the slowest party. unlikely to do so due to product America. This could build on the In terms of its environment, sensitivities and differentiated tariff Singapore–SA ‘hub’ proposal for in the short term, the US (and thus deadlines between members (the last tourism and air and shipping links, global) economic downturn is is only to liberalise by 2018). As currently on the table, and may also having a major impact on all of Michael Tay, director-general for be, analysts suggest, a means of Southeast Asia’s economies given ASEAN in the Singapore Foreign linking Mercosur, SADC and their heavy reliance on exports, Ministry put it: ‘AFTA has reached its ASEAN. One impediment will be, especially electronics. US demand limits, hence the need for individual simply, the availability of for technology products in 2000 FTAs.’ negotiating resources, and a absorbed 40% of non-Japan Asia’s Already Singapore is in the wariness on the part of ASEAN/ exports and accounted for a similar throes of negotiating a number of its Singapore to commit in this figure in Asian GDP growth. direction. It should also be private- Exports accounted in 1999 for 35% Forthcoming publications sector driven, with clear functional of Indonesia’s GDP, but 180% of rather than rhetorical/political • SA Yearbook of International Affairs Singapore’s and 54% of Taiwan’s, advantages. As Tay puts it: ‘SA the latter two countries suffering 2001/02 needs to present a case that the most in the current high-tech • New Security Paradigms opportunities should outweigh depression, expecting negative costs.’

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