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Natural Gas Market Review 2008 NATURAL GAS MARKET REVIEW 2008 Please note that this PDF is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at www.iea.org/Textbase/about/copyright.asp Optimising investments and ensuring security in a high-priced environment INTERNATIONAL ENE R G Y A GENCY 2008 NATURAL GAS MARKET REVIEW Optimising investments and ensuring security in a high-priced environment Over the last 18 months, natural gas prices have continued to rise steadily in all IEA markets. What are the causes of this steady upward trend? Unprecedented oil and coal prices which have encouraged power generators to switch to gas, together with tight supplies, demand for gas in new markets and delayed investments all played a role. Investment uncertainties, cost increases and delays remain major concerns in most gas markets and are continuing to constitute a threat to long- term security of supply. A massive expansion in LNG production is expected in the short term to 2012, but the lag in LNG investment beyond 2012 is a concern for all gas users in both IEA and non-IEA markets. Despite this tight market context, regional markets continue on their way to globalisation. This tendency seems irreversible, and it impacts even the most independent markets. Price linkages and other interactions between markets are becoming more pronounced. The Natural Gas Market Review 2008 addresses these major developments, and places a large emphasis on investment in natural gas projects (LNG, pipelines, upstream), escalating costs, the activities of international oil and gas companies, and gas demand in the power sector. In addition, the publication includes data and forecasts on OECD and non- OECD regions to 2015 and in-depth reviews of five OECD countries and regions including the European Union. It also provides analysis on 34 non-OECD countries in South America, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia, including a detailed assessment of the outlook for gas in Russia, as well as insights on new technologies to deliver gas to markets. (61 2008 26 1 P1) 978-92-64-04908-6 €80 -:HSTCQE=UY^U][: NATURAL GAS MARKET REVIEW 2008 Optimising investments and ensuring security in a high-priced environment INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY The International Energy Agency (IEA) is an autonomous body which was established in November 1974 within the framework of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to implement an international energy programme. It carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among twenty-seven of the OECD thirty member countries. The basic aims of the IEA are: n To maintain and improve systems for coping with oil supply disruptions. n To promote rational energy policies in a global context through co-operative relations with non-member countries, industry and international organisations. n To operate a permanent information system on the international oil market. n To improve the world’s energy supply and demand structure by developing alternative energy sources and increasing the efficiency of energy use. n To promote international collaboration on energy technology. n To assist in the integration of environmental and energy policies. The IEA member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom and United States. Poland is expected to become a member in 2008. The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA. ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT The OECD is a unique forum where the governments of thirty democracies work together to address the economic, social and environmental challenges of globalisation. The OECD is also at the forefront of efforts to understand and to help governments respond to new developments and concerns, such as corporate governance, the information economy and the challenges of an ageing population. The Organisation provides a setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and work to co-ordinate domestic and international policies. The OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom and United States. The European Commission takes part in the work of the OECD. © OECD/IEA, 2008 International Energy Agency (IEA), Head of Communication and Information Office, 9 rue de la Fédération, 75739 Paris Cedex 15, France. Please note that this publication is subject to specific restrictions that limit its use and distribution. The terms and conditions are available online at http://www.iea.org/Textbase/about/copyright.asp Natural Gas Market Review 2008 • Foreword 3 FOREWORD 2007 and 2008 have been tumultuous as well as on signifi cant non-OECD markets years for the energy sector; natural gas and producing regions. The evolution markets have not been immune from the of fi ve OECD markets is also featured in strong fundamental forces driving other individual in-depth surveys. energy sources. Strong upward trends in price levels and continued demand growth The review analyses other important have marked natural gas markets, while topics such as new technologies to bring regional market events were increasingly gas to markets, existing security of supply interlinked through LNG trade on a global mechanisms on country levels, and gas- scale. Tight supply, rising oil prices, and a to-power utilisation. A comprehensive lack of transparency in many gas markets register of LNG infrastructure and fostered security of supply concerns, fi nancing is also provided. while ongoing investment project delays and rising costs fuelled discomfort for Globalising gas trade may raise questions long-term market prospects. on security of supply mechanisms and long-term sustainability of markets. However, improved hub trading in Europe, However, enhanced transparency in data a strong market response by gas producers and forecasts, and level-playing fi eld in North America to rising prices, and the competition between markets can bring advance in a number of big supply projects security, fl exibility and effi ciency for all represent positive developments in the stakeholders in the gas industry. evolution of gas markets in IEA member countries during the past year. Gas remains a key fuel in meeting growing energy demand, especially in The present annual review, the third of power markets, and with its lower carbon its type, analyses these global trends, footprint, an important contributor to highlighting recent price developments, climate change goals. But while mid-2008 and analysing the continuing shift has seen some easing of gas prices in a towards globalisation of gas markets. A number of key markets, overall markets prospective on future demand and supply remain tight, and prices are still high balance for OECD markets provides relative to those of past years. insight into the expected regional market evolution to 2015. As for previous editions, we welcome feedback on the review. Adequate investment in supply infrastructure is a major issue for long- This book is published under my authority term security for both consumers and as Executive Director of the International producers. Hence, investment is given Energy Agency. a special focus in this review. A detailed analysis is provided on transport Nobuo Tanaka infrastructure projects, LNG and pipelines, 2008 OECD/IEA, © 2008 OECD/IEA, © Natural Gas Market Review 2008 • Acknowledgements 5 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Review was prepared by the Energy Muriel Custodio, Rebecca Gaghen and Diversifi cation Division (EDD) of the Corinne Hayworth provided essential International Energy Agency, under the support to the Review’s production and oversight of Pieter Boot, director of the launch. Our thanks also go to Elli Ulmer for Offi ce for Long-Term Co-operation and all the copies to be sold. Policy Analysis (LTO). The Review was designed and managed by Ian Cronshaw, Bertrand Sadin deserves special mention head of EDD. The lead authors were Kieran for his continuous patience and heroic McNamara and Hiroshi Hashimoto. efforts in the Review’s preparation for printing. Signifi cant contributions were made from other colleagues in EDD, particularly The Review also benefi ted from input Margarita Pirovska and Susan Schwarte, from the following external contributors: and also Maria Sicilia, Ulrik Stridbaek, Adam Kopysc, Gill Campbell, Helen Nobuyuki Higashi, Nasha Abu Samah Dickinson and Manuel Lopez. Relevant and Krzysztof Kwiecien. Contributors input was also provided by GIE, GRT Gaz, from the IEA included Isabel Murray, Eustream, RWE Transgas Net. However, Elena Merle-Beral, Catherine Hunter, Tim the fi nal responsibility for the Review lies Gould, Dagmar Graczyk, Sang Heum Yoon, with the IEA. Andreas Ulbig, Ghislaine Kieffer, Joost Wempe, Jolanka Fisher and Ellina Levina. The Review was made possible by assistance from Gasterra, Gaz de France, Valuable comments and feedback were Japan Bank for International Cooperation, received from within the IEA, including Petronas, Polish Oil and Gas Company, and Aad van Bohemen, Didier Houssin,
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