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BIS Working Papers No 532 Mortgage Risk and the Yield Curve
BIS Working Papers No 532 Mortgage risk and the yield curve by Aytek Malkhozov, Philippe Mueller, Andrea Vedolin and Gyuri Venter Monetary and Economic Department December 2015 JEL classification: G12, G21, E43 Keywords: Term Structure of Interest Rates, MBS, Supply Factor BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2015. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 (print) ISSN 1682-7678 (online) Mortgage Risk and the Yield Curve∗ Aytek Malkhozov† Philippe Mueller‡ Andrea Vedolin§ Gyuri Venter¶ Abstract We study the feedback from the risk of outstanding mortgage-backed secu- rities (MBS) on the level and volatility of interest rates. We incorporate the supply shocks resulting from changes in MBS duration into a parsimonious equilibrium dynamic term structure model and derive three predictions that are strongly supported in the data: (i) MBS duration positively predicts nominal and real excess bond returns, especially for longer maturities; (ii) the predictive power of MBS duration is transitory in nature; and (iii) MBS convexity increases interest -
New Basis for the Hedge Fund / Prime Broker Relationship
Ag48 xel Pierron New Basis for the Hedge Fund / Prime Broker Relationship Implementing the Right IT Infrastructure June 2011 Content 3 Executive Summary 5 Introduction 7 Building a New Prime Brokerage Relationship 7 Adoption of the Multi-Prime Model 9 Implementation of Multi-Asset Trading and Multi-Market Strategy 11 Requirements for Greater Transparency and Reporting Capabilities 13 Leveraging IT Infrastructure to Answer New Market Demand 13 The Prime Brokerage Platforms in the Broker-Dealer IT Ecosys- tem 16 Implementing the Right Level of Segregation Between PB and Broker-Dealer Business 17 Multi-Asset Offering May Require Multiple Platforms 18 Reporting: Real Time Updating of Transaction Status 18 Consolidation of Data for Client Portfolio 21 Regional Connectivity: Multiple CCPs and CSDs 21 Buy Vs. Build 24 Conclusion 26 Leveraging Celent’s Expertise 26 Support for Financial Institutions 26 Support for Vendors 28 About Broadridge Executive Summary The financial crisis has changed the relationship between hedge funds and prime brokers for good. With the default and quasi-default of some of the leading providers in the space, funds have realized that they should diversify their prime broker relationships and require more transparency on the operational processes of their prime provid- ers. However, as the funds industry regains momentum, they are more than ever turning to their prime brokers to provide the services that will support business expansion. Hence, prime brokers need to adapt their offering and IT infrastructure to respond to the changing market environment by: Implementing true multi-asset and multi-market capabili- ties. In their quest to generate alpha, funds are expecting their prime brokers to provide an extended product and geo- graphic breadth through one platform. -
View Annual Report
ANNUAL REPORT MetLife, Inc. 2013 Chairman’s Letter To my fellow shareholders: When I became CEO in May of 2011, my mandate was clear: Improve the profitability and risk profile of the business. MetLife was the largest life insurer in the United States with a great brand and a nearly 145-year history of keeping its promises to policyholders, but we had taken on too much risk in certain parts of our business and our profitability was in the middle of the pack relative to industry peers. The first order of business for the executive group in 2011 was to develop a strategy to achieve our goal. It is not easy to turn a ship as large as MetLife, especially in an industry where profits emerge slowly over time. The strategy we launched in 2012 was not a one- or two-year strategy. It was a five-year strategy to raise our return on equity, reduce our cost of equity, and return capital to shareholders. Even though we have faced both economic and regulatory headwinds along the way, I am pleased to report that we are ahead of schedule on our plan to increase the profitability of MetLife’s business while also decreasing its level of risk. A Very Good Year Our progress was clearly evident in 2013. Operating earnings increased 11% over the prior year, exceeding our plan.1 Premiums, fees and other revenues increased 2% on a reported basis and 5% on a constant currency basis – solid top-line growth in light of our efforts to improve MetLife’s risk profile. -
Statement of Michael A. Mendelson for Securities Lending and Short Sale
Written Statement of Michael A. Mendelson, AQR Capital Management LLC Before the Securities and Exchange Commission Securities Lending and Short Sale Roundtable September 30, 2009 Panel 1: Controls on "Naked" Short Selling: Pre-Borrow and Hard Locate Requirements Chairman Schapiro and Commissioners, my name is Michael Mendelson. I am a Principal and portfolio manager at AQR Capital Management LLC, and one of my responsibilities includes portfolio financing. AQR Capital Management is an investment management firm that manages hedge funds, separate accounts and mutual funds. Among others, our investors include pension funds, endowments, and foundations. In employing a disciplined multi-asset, research-driven process, we often take a market- neutral approach that includes the use of short selling. I appreciate the opportunity to appear before you to share my views on securities lending and proposals to further deter “naked” short selling (i.e. selling stock you do not own and for which you haven’t received an affirmative determination that the stock is available for delivery), in particular proposals to mandate pre-borrows or institute a hard locate requirement. Short selling is an essential activity in a market that allocates capital efficiently. Short selling improves market liquidity and lowers transaction costs. Equally important, it makes possible proper price discovery, reducing the likelihood and severity of destructive asset pricing bubbles. But, even as short selling provides helpful economic gains, “naked” short selling can deprive buyers of securities of their legitimate rights. While I believe that there is little basis for the argument that naked short selling played any role in the financial crisis of 2008 or in the failures of either Lehman Brothers Holdings or Bear Stearns Companies, I do believe that naked short selling, or at least naked short selling coupled with the subsequent inability to deliver shares to settle the transaction is a violation of the contractual obligations of the seller of a security or its clearing broker. -
WHY DOES the YIELD CURVE PREDICT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY? Dissecting the Evidence for Germany and the United States
BIS WORKING PAPERS No. 49 WHY DOES THE YIELD CURVE PREDICT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY? Dissecting the evidence for Germany and the United States by Frank Smets and Kostas Tsatsaronis September 1997 BANK FOR INTERNATIONAL SETTLEMENTS Monetary and Economic Department BASLE BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The papers are on subjects of topical interest and are technical in character. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS. © Bank for International Settlements 1997 CH-4002 Basle, Switzerland Also available on the BIS World Wide Web site (http://www.bis.org). All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISSN 1020-0959 WHY DOES THE YIELD CURVE PREDICT ECONOMIC ACTIVITY? Dissecting the evidence for Germany and the United States by Frank Smets and Kostas Tsatsaronis * September 1997 Abstract This paper investigates why the slope of the yield curve predicts future economic activity in Germany and the United States. A structural VAR is used to identify aggregate supply, aggregate demand, monetary policy and inflation scare shocks and to analyse their effects on the real, nominal and term premium components of the term spread and on output. In both countries demand and monetary policy shocks contribute to the covariance between output growth and the lagged term spread, while inflation scares do not. As the latter are more important in the United States, they reduce the predictive content of the term spread in that country. -
Constructing an Alternative Allocation
DECEMBER 2018 Constructing an Alternative Allocation NOT FDIC INSURED | MAY LOSE VALUE | NO BANK GUARANTEE The opinions referenced are as of the date of the publication, are subject to change due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Information contained herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. CONSTRUCTING AN ALTERNATIVE ALLOCATION Important Information Some of the risks associated with investing in alternatives may include hedging risk – hedging activities can reduce investment performance through added costs; derivative risk – derivatives may experience greater price volatility than the underlying securities; short sale risk – investments may incur a loss without limit as a result of a short sale if the market value of the security increases; interest rate risk – loss of value for income securities as interest rates rise; credit risk – risk of the borrower to miss payments; liquidity risk – low trading volume may lead to increased volatility in certain securities; non-U.S. government obligation risk – non-U.S. government obligations may be subject to increased credit risk; portfolio selection risk – investment managers may select securities that fare worse than the overall market. Alternative investments may not be suitable for all investors. An investment in the Fund(s) is subject to risks, and you could lose money on your investment in the Fund(s). There can be no assurance that the Fund(s) will achieve its investment objective. Your investment in the Fund(s) is not a deposit in a bank and is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) or any other government agency. -
The Cost of Equity Capital for Reits: an Examination of Three Asset-Pricing Models
MIT Center for Real Estate September, 2000 The Cost of Equity Capital for REITs: An Examination of Three Asset-Pricing Models David N. Connors Matthew L. Jackman Thesis, 2000 © Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2000. This paper, in whole or in part, may not be cited, reproduced, or used in any other way without the written permission of the authors. Comments are welcome and should be directed to the attention of the authors. MIT Center for Real Estate, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Building W31-310, Cambridge, MA, 02139-4307 (617-253-4373). THE COST OF EQUITY CAPITAL FOR REITS: AN EXAMINATION OF THREE ASSET-PRICING MODELS by David Neil Connors B.S. Finance, 1991 Bentley College and Matthew Laurence Jackman B.S.B.A. Finance, 1996 University of North Carolinaat Charlotte Submitted to the Department of Urban Studies and Planning in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY September 2000 © 2000 David N. Connors & Matthew L. Jackman. All Rights Reserved. The authors hereby grant to MIT permission to reproduce and to distribute publicly paper and electronic (\aopies of this thesis in whole or in part. Signature of Author: - T L- . v Department of Urban Studies and Planning August 1, 2000 Signature of Author: IN Department of Urban Studies and Planning August 1, 2000 Certified by: Blake Eagle Chairman, MIT Center for Real Estate Thesis Supervisor Certified by: / Jonathan Lewellen Professor of Finance, Sloan School of Management Thesis Supervisor -
Notes on the Yield Curve
Notes on the yield curve Ian Martin Steve Ross∗ September, 2018 Abstract We study the properties of the yield curve under the assumptions that (i) the fixed-income market is complete and (ii) the state vector that drives interest rates follows a finite discrete-time Markov chain. We focus in particular on the relationship between the behavior of the long end of the yield curve and the recovered time discount factor and marginal utilities of a pseudo-representative agent; and on the relationship between the \trappedness" of an economy and the convergence of yields at the long end. JEL code: G12. Keywords: yield curve, term structure, recovery theorem, traps, Cheeger inequality, eigenvalue gap. ∗Ian Martin (corresponding author): London School of Economics, London, UK, [email protected]. Steve Ross: MIT Sloan, Cambridge, MA. We are grateful to Dave Backus, Ravi Bansal, John Campbell, Mike Chernov, Darrell Duffie, Lars Hansen, Ken Singleton, Leifu Zhang, and to participants at the TIGER Forum and at the SITE conference for their comments. Ian Martin is grateful for support from the ERC under Starting Grant 639744. 1 In this paper, we present some theoretical results on the properties of the long end of the yield curve. Our results relate to two literatures. The first is the Recovery Theorem of Ross (2015). Ross showed that, given a matrix of Arrow{Debreu prices, it is possible to infer the objective state transition probabilities and marginal utilities. Although it is a familiar fact that sufficiently rich asset price data pins down the risk-neutral probabilities, it is initially surprising that we can do the same for the objective, or real-world, probabilities. -
The Continuing Evolution of NAV Facilities
The continuing evolution of NAV facilities Meyer C. Dworkin & Samantha Hait Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP Background In recent years, credit facilities provided to private equity funds have been dominated by two forms: “Subscription Facilities” and “NAV Facilities”. Subscription Facilities – sometimes referred to as “capital call” credit facilities – have become increasingly common for newer funds with significant unfunded capital commitments, with the loans thereunder secured by the fund’s right to call such capital commitments from its investors. Availability under Subscription Facilities is subject to a “borrowing base”, calculated as an agreed advance percentage of unfunded commitments of certain “included” investors in the fund (with the inclusion and “advance rates” dependent on the creditworthiness of each such investor). Subscription Facilities are generally intended to serve a fund borrower’s short- term capital needs by bridging the time between the issuance of capital calls to investors and the time such capital is actually contributed. For many funds, however, Subscription Facilities are not a viable option, either because the fund’s organisational documents do not permit such facilities or, in the case of a mature fund, the fund has already called a significant portion of its commitments, leaving it with minimal unfunded commitments against which to borrow. These private equity funds have sought instead to raise capital through “asset backed” or net asset value facilities: “NAV Facilities”. NAV Facilities are credit facilities backed by the fund’s investment portfolio. For a “fund- of-funds”, these assets will typically be the limited partnership and other equity interests in hedge funds and private equity funds, consisting of both primary investments as well as those purchased in the secondary market. -
Problems and Solutions of This Global Issue Narcóticos: Problemas Y Soluciones Para Este Problema Mundial
EXTRA SERIES 43 NARCOTICS: PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS OF THIS GLOBAL ISSUE NARCÓTICOS: PROBLEMAS Y SOLUCIONES PARA ESTE PROBLEMA MUNDIAL EM AD IA C S A C I A E I N The Pontifical Academy of Sciences C T I I F A I R T Casina Pio IV • Vatican City • 23-24 November 2016 V N M O P PAS EXTRA SERIES 43 NARCOTICS: PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS OF THIS GLOBAL ISSUE NARCÓTICOS: PROBLEMAS Y SOLUCIONES PARA ESTE PROBLEMA MUNDIAL The Pontifical Academy of Sciences Casina Pio IV • Vatican City • 23-24 November 2016 Contents Introduction 7 | Introducción 9 | Address of His Holiness Pope Francis 13 | Discurso del Santo Padre Francisco 17 | H.M. Queen Silvia of Sweden Speech 21 | Discurso de S.M. la Reina Silvia de Suecia 25 | Programme 30 | List of Participants 33 | Final Statement 34 | Declaración final36 | Summary 39 | Resumen 53 ... investing in education, prevention, health care, addiction treatment and, in certain “ cases, alternatives to incarceration would do more to end the drug trade than relying primarily on the criminalization of the victims. ” PAS, VATICAN CITY NARCOTICS: PROBLEMS AND 7 CASINA PIO IV, 23-24 NOVEMBER 2016 SOLUTIONS OF THIS GLOBAL ISSUE Introduction W Marcelo Sánchez Sorondo ollowing a special wish of Pope Francis, the Our workshop intends to focus specifically on the Pontifical Academy of Sciences organized a scientific aspect, presenting the consequences of Ftwo-day Workshop on Narcotics: Problems and substance abuse (both soft and hard drugs) on our Solutions of this Global Issue on 23-24 November bodies and brains, as well as the potential medical uses 2016. -
Introduction and Overview of 40 Act Liquid Alternative Funds
Introduction and Overview of 40 Act Liquid Alternative Funds July 2013 Citi Prime Finance Introduction and Overview of 40 Act Liquid Alternative Funds I. Introduction 5 II. Overview of Alternative Open-End Mutual Funds 6 Single-Manager Mutual Funds 6 Multi-Alternative Mutual Funds 8 Managed Futures Mutual Funds 9 III. Overview of Alternative Closed-End Funds 11 Alternative Exchange-Traded Funds 11 Continuously Offered Interval or Tender Offer Funds 12 Business Development Companies 13 Unit Investment Trusts 14 IV. Requirements for 40 Act Liquid Alternative Funds 15 Registration and Regulatory Filings 15 Key Service Providers 16 V. Marketing and Distributing 40 Act Liquid Alternative Funds 17 Mutual Fund Share Classes 17 Distribution Channels 19 Marketing Strategy 20 Conclusion 22 Introduction and Overview of 40 Act Liquid Alternative Funds | 3 Section I: Introduction and Overview of 40 Act Liquid Alternative Funds This document is an introduction to ’40 Act funds for hedge fund managers exploring the possibilities available within the publically offered funds market in the United States. The document is not a comprehensive manual for the public funds market; instead, it is a primer for the purpose of introducing the different fund products and some of their high-level requirements. This document does not seek to provide any legal advice. We do not intend to provide any opinion in this document that could be considered legal advice by our team. We would advise all firms looking at these products to engage with a qualified law firm or outside general counsel to review the detailed implications of moving into the public markets and engaging with United States regulators of those markets. -
2009 FINANCIAL SUMMARY Enerplus Has a Plan and Is Transitioning Our Business from an Income Fund to a Competitive Growth and Income-Oriented Oil and Gas Company
Season in Review ENERPLUS RESOURCES 2009 FINANCIAL SUMMARY Enerplus has a plan and is transitioning our business from an income fund to a competitive growth and income-oriented oil and gas company. 1. Add more early-stage resource plays 2. Maintain a strong financial position 3. Focus our portfolio 4. Build our operational capability Enerplus is one of Canada’s oldest and largest independent oil and gas producers with a portfolio of both early-stage resource plays and mature cash-generating properties. We are focused on creating value for our investors through the successful development of our properties and the disciplined management of our balance sheet. Through these activities, we strive to provide investors with a competitive return comprised of both growth and income. 1 Financial and Operating Highlights 4 Management’s Discussion and Analysis 37 Financial Statements 67 Five-Year Detailed Statistical Review 68 Five-Year Operational Statistics 69 Supplemental Information 79 Abbreviations 80 Definitions 82 Board of Directors 83 Officers 84 Corporate Information 2009 SUMMARY Selected Financial and Operating Highlights Three months ended Twelve months ended December 31, December 31, SELECTED FINANCIAL RESULTS (in Canadian dollars) 2009 2008 2009 2008 Financial (000’s) Cash Flow from Operating Activities $ 188,579 $ 258,536 $ 775,786 $ 1,262,782 Cash Distributions to Unitholders(1) 95,550 167,017 368,201 786,138 Excess of Cash Flow Over Cash Distributions 93,029 91,519 407,585 476,644 Net Income 2,718 189,495 89,117 888,892 Debt Outstanding