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Vol. ( ) 20 13 4 December 14 Roman KORNYLIUK EARLY WARNING INDICATORS OF DEFAULTS IN THE BANKING SYSTEM OF UKRAINE Konstantia DARVIDOU THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE INTERNATIONAL TOURISM TO EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN GREECE Roman ZVARYCH BRICS NEW DEVELOPMENT BANK: TECHNOGRAPHY OF DEVELOPMENT Yevhen SAVELYEV, Vitalina KURYLYAK REFORMING OF UKRAINIAN ECONOMY: THE URGENCY AND THE PRIORITIES Galyna TRILLENBERG INNOVATION-CLUSTER APPROACH TO DEVELOPMENT OF TOURISM UKRAINE UNDER CONDITIONS OF GLOBALIZATION Tetiana BORYSOVA MARKETING OF NON-PROFITS OF EDUCATION AND RESEARCH SECTOR OF UKRAINE: CONCEPTUAL PECULIARITIES AND VECTORS OF DEVELOPMENT «JOURNAL OF EUROPEAN ECONOMY» IN 2014 Vol.13 (№ 4 ) December20 14 ISSN 1684-906X JOURNAL JJ OO UU RR NN AA LL The journal is listed in the Supreme December Attestation Commission’s 2014 OF EUROPEAN register of specialized publications in economic sciences O F E U R O P E A N (Resolution №1-05/2 of 10.03.2010 O F E U R O P E A N ECONOMY of the SAC of Ukraine) Vol. 13 (№ 4). December 2014 Publication of Ternopil National Economic University Recommended for publication EE CC OO NN OO MM YY Rector – Andriy Krysovatyi by the TNEU Research Council (Protocol № 5 of 26.11.2014) The Journal of European Economy is reviewed by: DB «Ukrainika Naukova», DB «VINITI», «Journal of Economic AJ «Dzherelo», AJ «Economika» Literature» (JEL), Economic Theory National (Russian American Eco- Vernadskyi Library Federation) nomic Associa- Roman KORNYLIUK 333 (Ukraine) tion Publications EARLY WARNING INDICATORS OF DEFAULTS IN THE BANKING SYSTEM OF UKRAINE E-mail: [email protected] Web-site: http://jee.te.ua/ua International Economics Editorial Board Konstantia DARVIDOU of the Journal of European Economy 349 THE CONTRIBUTION OF THE INTERNATIONAL TOURISM TO EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN GREECE Editor-in-Chief: Yevhen Savelyev, Dr. of Econ. Sciences, Professor, Ternopil National Economic University, Ukraine Deputies Editor-in-Chief: Vitalina Kurylyak, Dr. of Econ. Sciences, Professor, Ternopil National Economic University, Ukraine Financial and Banking Service Market (international relations) Roman ZVARYCH Oleksandr Sharov, Dr. of Econ. Sciences, Professor, Ternopil National Economic University, Ukraine 370 BRICS NEW DEVELOPMENT BANK: TECHNOGRAPHY OF DEVELOPMENT (English version) Editorial Board: Udo Broll, Dr., Prof., Chair for International Economic Relations, University of Technology, Dresden, Germany Ukrainian Economy Oleksandr Dzyublyuk, Dr. of Econ. Sciences, Professor, Ternopil National Economic University, Ukraine Roland Eisen, Dr., Prof., J.-W. Goethe University, Frankfurt on Main, Germany Anton Filipenko, Dr. of Econ. Sciences, Prof., Institute of International Relations, Kyiv National T. Shevchenko 380 Yevhen SAVELYEV, Vitalina KURYLYAK REFORMING OF UKRAINIAN ECONOMY: THE URGENCY AND THE PRIORITIES University, Ukraine Laurent Guihery, Dr., Assistant Prof., University Lumiere Lyon 2, Lyon, France Bohdan Hawrylyshyn, Prof., Academician, Member of Roman Club, Head of Supervisory Board, International Galyna TRILLENBERG Institute of Management, Kyiv, Ukraine 395 INNOVATION-CLUSTER APPROACH TO DEVELOPMENT OF TOURISM UKRAINE Valeriy Heyets, Dr. of Econ. Sciences, Academician of Ukraine’s National Academy of Sciences (UNAS), Institute UNDER CONDITIONS OF GLOBALIZATION of Economic Forecasting, UNAS M. Peter van der Hoek, Dr., Prof., Erasmus University, Rotterdam, the Netherlands Tetiana BORYSOVA Viktor Koziuk, Dr. of Econ. Sciences, Prof., Ternopil National Economic University, Ukraine 408 MARKETING OF NON-PROFITS OF EDUCATION AND RESEARCH SECTOR OF UKRAINE: Andriy Krysovatyi, Dr. of Econ. Sciences, Prof., Ternopil National Economic University, Ukraine CONCEPTUAL PECULIARITIES AND VECTORS OF DEVELOPMENT Olga Kyrylenko, Dr. of Econ. Sciences, Prof., Ternopil National Economic University, Ukraine Dmytro Lukyanenko, Dr. of Econ. Sciences, Prof., Department of International Economics and Management, Kyiv National University of Economy, Ukraine Yuriy Makohon, Dr. of Econ. Sciences, Prof., Donetsk National University, Ukraine 423 «JOURNAL OF EUROPEAN ECONOMY» IN 2014 Alla Melnyk, Dr. of Econ. Sciences, Prof., Ternopil National Economic University, Ukraine Tetiana Oriehova, Dr. of Econ. Sciences, Prof., Donetsk National University, Ukraine George Polychronopoulos, Dr., Prof., School of Business Administration and Economics, Technological Educational Institute, Athens, Greece Oleksandr Shnyrkov, Dr. of Econ. Sciences, Prof., Institute of International Relations, Kyiv National T. Shevchenko University, Ukraine Address: 11/1202 Lvivs’ka St., 46000, Ternopil, Ukraine. Ternopil National Economic University Evangelos Siskos, Cand. of Econ. Sciences, Prof., State Technological Educational Institute, Kastoria, Greece Теl.: (0352) 47-50-75 Olena Sokhatska, Dr. of Econ. Sciences, Prof., Ternopil National Economic University, Ukraine E-mail: [email protected] Volodymyr Sydenko, Dr. of Econ. Sciences, Prof., Institute of International Relations, Kyiv National T. Shevchenko Web-site:: http://jee.te.ua University, Ukraine The journal is distributed on subscription, by post, retail, and e-mail. Nikos Tsounis, Dr., Prof., State Technological Educational Institute, Kastoria, Greece JOURNAL 333 O F E U R O P E A N E C O N O M Y Vol. 13 (№ 4). December 2014 Publication of Ternopil National Economic Universit y Economic Theory Roman KORNYLIUK EARLY WARNING INDICATORS OF DEFAULTS IN THE BANKING SYSTEM OF UKRAINE Abstract We construct and explore a new quarterly dataset of 12 traditional financial ratios for defaulted banks. The retrospective comparative analysis of bank- specific early-warning indicators’ predictive power for 2 samples of problem banks over 2008–2012 and 2014 periods was conducted. The survey results re- veal the most appropriate early-warning signals, which are useful for credit rating methodologies, and can improve the quality of systemic risk monitoring in the banking sector. The best predictors of defaults proved to be traditional indicators of profitability and liquidity, the share of retail deposits in the liabilities, and quali- tative factor of the bank's ownership structure. Insufficiently indicative predictive ability was demonstrated by the simplified indicators of capital adequacy and as- sets quality. Key words: Banks, bank default, early-warning indicators, banking crises, systemic risk. © Roman Kornyliuk, 2014. Kornyliuk Roman, Cand. of Economic Sciences, Assist. Prof., Vadym Hetman Kyiv National Eco- nomic University, Ukraine. 334 Roman Kornyliuk Early Warning Indicators of Defaults in the Banking System of Ukraine JEL: G21, G01, G28. Problem Statement. Since the beginning of 2014, the banking system of Ukraine (BSU) entered a phase of financial instability, as indicated by unprece- dented high default rate and the historical record for the annual number of intro- ductions of temporary administration at insolvent banks (Fig. 1). Figure 1 Number of introductions made by the temporary administration 30 26 25 22 20 15 10 5 3 3 3 0 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (10 months) Source: Individual Deposits Guarantee Fund, NBU The greatest interest among investors and counterparties was caused by defaults of the banks with a substantial share in the deposit market, such as Brokbiznesbank, Forum and Pivdencombank. The growth of individual bankrupt- J O U R N A L 335 OF EUROPEAN ECONOMY December 2014 cies into the full blown systemic crisis in the first semester of the current year was stopped by the dynamic actions of the National Bank as the lender of last resort, which prevented the liquidation of some ‘too big to fail’ banks (UNIAN, 2014). On the other hand, the expansionary monetary policy and active financial support in the systemically major banks rehabilitation have caused the indirect conse- quences in the form of an additional contribution into the strengthening of infla- tionary and depreciation processes. During the periods of banking crises deployment, the particularly acute ne- cessity arises for the early warning system of bank defaults, potentially posing a threat of starting the scenario of systemic risks realization. Raising no objections to the importance of aggregate macroeconomic or financial indicators that are traditionally used for monitoring BSU’s financial stability, it is recommended to strengthen the analysis of systemic risks by regular estimations of the bank’s re- liability indices at the individual bank level, tabulated into a single index or rating for regulatory purposes. Meanwhile, it is essential to improve the predictive ability of ratings and indices of reliability to perform a constant calibration of microeco- nomic models of defaults based on back-testing of the traditional indicators effi- ciency in the past bankruptcies predicting. Research and publications analysis. The systems of bank defaults early warning have been used in the regulatory practices of leading countries for sev- eral decades. The greatest popularity among many methodologies of problem banks identifying was gained by the rating system CAMELS, which has been used in the US since 1978 and is based on a complex assessment of financial institutions stability according to 6 main groups of indicators: Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management administration, Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to Market Risks (FDIC, 1996). Methodology for calculating the bank credit ratings of international and national rating agencies (RA), numerous normative and legisla- tive acts and internal bank documents on the risks management problems re- quire calculation
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