COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT MAP • JANUARY 2017

RISK OF BUSINESSES DEFAULTING A1 A2 A3 A4 B C D E 160 COUNTRIES VERY LOW LOW QUITE ACCEPTABLE ACCEPTABLE SIGNIFICANT HIGH VERY HIGH EXTREME UNDER THE

GROENLAND MAGNIFYING (DENMARK)

ICELAND GLASS FINLAND NORWAY RUSSIA A2 SWEDEN ESTONIA

A UNIQUE METHODOLOGY UNITED KINGDOM LATVIA CANADA LITHUANIA

IRELAND BELARUS • Macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk POLAND

BELGIUM GERMANY CZECH REPUBLIC UKRAINE • Comprehension of the business environment SLOVAKIA FRANCE AUSTRIA KAZAKHSTAN SWITZERLAND HUNGARY SLOVENIA ROMANIA MONGOLIA

• Microeconomic data collected over 70 years BOSNIA SERBIA A3 UZBEKISTAN ITALY BULGARIA GEORGIA of payment experience KYRGYZSTAN NORTH SPAIN AZERBAIJAN PORTUGAL ARMENIA KOREA UNITED STATES GREECE TURKEY TURKMENISTAN TAJIKISTAN JAPAN SOUTH MALTA KOREA CYPRUS SYRIA TUNISIA LEBANON B ISRAEL IRAN AFGHANISTAN IRAQ MOROCCO ALGERIA PALESTINIAN ICELAND TERRITORIES JORDAN CHINA FINLAND NEPAL NORWAY KUWAIT PAKISTAN LIBYA C BAHRAIN EGYPT QATAR MEXICO TAIWAN CUBA SWEDEN A2 SAUDI INDIA ESTONIA DOMINICAN OMAN MYANMAR REPUBLIC ARABIA C HONG KONG RUSSIA LAOS MAURITANIA JAMAICA D BANGLADESH LATVIA B BELIZE MALI NIGER DENMARK HONDURAS HAITI ERITREA YEMEN THAILAND LITHUANIA CABO VERDE SENEGAL CHAD UNITED PHILIPPINES SUDAN ARAB GUATEMALA NICARAGUA BURKINA EMIRATES NETHERLANDS BELARUS EL SALVADOR FASO DJIBOUTI GUINEA VIETNAM IRELAND UNITED TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO BENIN CAMBODIA KINGDOM GUINEA-BISSAU POLAND COSTA RICA NIGERIA VENEZUELA GUYANA IVORY CENTRAL GERMANY COAST ETHIOPIA SRI LANKA PANAMA SURINAME SIERRA LEONE AFRICAN BELGIUM REPUBLIC MALAYSIA LUXEMBOURG FRENCH CZECH UKRAINE GUYANA CAMEROON MALDIVES REPUBLIC COLOMBIA LIBERIA GHANA TOGO SLOVAKIA SINGAPORE UGANDA SAO TOME KENYA FRANCE MOLDOVA & PRINCIPE CONGO SWITZERLAND AUSTRIA HUNGABRY B GABON INDONESIA ECUADOR RWANDA SLOVENIA ROMANIA DR CONGO CROATIA BURUNDI A4 BOSNIA PERU SERBIA BRAZIL TANZANIA PAPUA ITALY C A4 BULGARIA NEW GUINEA MONTENEGRO MACEDONIA

ALBANIA ANGOLA

GREECE PORTUGAL SPAIN ZAMBIA MALAWI TURKEY BOLIVIA ZIMBABWE MADAGASCAR NAMIBIA MAURITIUS MALTA PARAGUAY MOZAMBIQUE ILE DE LA RÉUNION BOTSWANA CYPRUS AUSTRALIA CHILE

SOUTH AFRICA ARGENTINA LESOTHO C URUGUAY

B NEW ZEALAND UPGRADES DOWNGRADES

SOUTH ARGENTINA A4 B BULGARIA A4 ICELAND A2 KENYA PAKISTAN C SPAIN A3 JORDAN C MEXICO B AFRICA C • Improved business • Confirmation of • Growth of 4% • Recovery in tourism, • Improvement of the • End of a ten-month • Economy remains • Uncertainties over • Very low growth environment since the recovery, with expected in 2017 greater public business environment political impasse below its growth possible protectionist and contraction election of President moderate growth • Capital control investment and • Launch of • Dynamic, despite potential measures related to of manufacturing Macri: liberalization • Consolidation of the liberalisation underway improved business cooperation with slowing, economic • The massive influx trade with the USA activity of the exchange rate, banking sector is a positive signal for climate China on transport growth: +2.3 % in 2017 of refugees has • Public investment • Higher political risk abolition of foreign investors • Exports (tea and restrictions on access and energy • Corporate debt has weighed down on will be limited, due and social discontent • The level of public debt horticultural infrastructure wage dynamics, to continued fiscal to foreign exchange products) will decreased and • The rand is expected and easing of has fallen sharply and within a context of restraints as a result continue to increase • Accelerating private business insolvencies to remain highly administrative the fiscal budget is investment continue to fall high unemployment of low oil-related volatile and capital procedures for expected to remain in and rising inflation revenues • Good export inflows are uncertain imports / exports surplus performance • High public debt