International Journal of Computer Science and Electronics Engineering (IJCSEE) Volume 2, Issue 3 (2014) ISSN 2320–4028 (Online)

Malaysia Fixed/Mobile Infrastructure Trend Beyond 2020: Comparative Impact Study From 4G/LTE, 5G with Outernet and Petabytes data

A. Razak Bin Yaacob, and Rizaludin Kaspin

from year 2014 and beyond 2020. The objectives will be as Abstract—Telecommunication network infrastructure in follows :- is dominated by two competing network from fixed i. To review current scenarios and propose the possible and mobile network. These two networks are deemed to future scenarios beyond 2020 converge into one ubiquitous all IP network. This paper ii. To identify future trends parameters undertake to investigate and propose the trend that Malaysia iii. To recommend the next research outcomes. Telco companies infrastructures will become after beyond the year 2020 upon being subjected to many factors that are II. LITERATURE REVIEW happening in the country such as Fixed network with The number of telecom companies have increased and the services, Mobile 4G/LTE network evolving to 5G, availability of new technologies have changed the trend and emerging Outernet and petabytes of data driven by smart alternative strategies options for implementation by telecom products, wireless technology and sensor-enabled devices. companies [2,3,4]. The updated current trend on strategies The results of this study will then determine the probability of and technologies are illustrated in Table 1. a certain network to emerge at the specified target year and to provide economic of scale for the development of one resilient TABLE 1 network for Malaysia. CONSOLIDATION OF CELLULAR COMPANIES IN MALAYSIA 1995 TO 2014 YEAR and NUMBER OF TELCOs and CELCOs Players No. Keywords— Outernet, Telecom Network Infrastructure, 4G 5G LTE Technology, Petabyte data. 1995 “ 7 1. , 2. DiGi, 3. Emartel, 4. Maxis, 5.Mobikom,6. PLAYERS” Sapura (Adam), 7. Telekom

1. Celcom, 2. DiGi, 3. Maxis, 4.Telekom ( Bought I. BACKGROUND 2000 “ 5 Mobikom and Emartel. Emartel later rename TMTouch), PLAYERS” HIS study explore the two network in Malaysia namely 5. Time – (Bought Sapura’s Adam) T fixed network dominated by Telekom Malaysia, Time and 2002 “ 4 1. Maxis, 2. DiGi, 3. Time, 4. Telekom – (Celcom and the mobile network by Maxis, DiGi and Celcom. These five PLAYERS” TMTouch merger in process) dominant companies have continuously influence the 1. Maxis – (Time Cel in process of merging with Maxis), 2004 “ 3 2. DiGi, 3.Telekom Malaysia – (Celcom and TMTouch migration and evolution to next generation network since PLAYERS” year 1995. The next generation network will features new merger in process) services to the customers and supported by new technology of 2005 “ 4 1. Maxis , 2. DiGi, 3.Telekom Malaysia – (Celcom ), all IP network with IPv6 protocol replacing IPv4 [ 1 ]. PLAYERS” 4.One more operator due to award of license.** In this competitive business, there is a need to predict the 1.Maxis, 2.DiGi, 3.Celcom, 2G/3G Mobile network 2006 to 2014 “9 probable future telecommunication network in the coming 4. TM, 5. TimeDot Com, NGN Fixed Network PLAYERS” years so as to obtain a resilient network with the minimum 6. P1, 7. Yes, 8. UMobile, 9.Altel Wimax/LTE possible cost and at the same time with acceptable standard of Note: ** - Possibility of license award by Malaysia Communications and Grade of Service (GOS). Multimedia Commission (MCMC) Thus the aim of this study is to explore potential telecommunication network trend and scenarios in Malaysia The trend of converging fixed and mobile network indicate a consolidation of telecom companies from 7 to 3 at year 2005. The study also predicted the telecom companies will start to expand to 4 from 2005 and beyond but still Associate Professor Ir. Dr. A. Razak Bin Yaacob, Faculty of Engineering & Technology Infrastructure, Infrastructure University , Kajang, maintaining the existence of fixed network. Selangor 43000, Malaysia., Email id: [email protected] The demand for new services to be offered by to the Ir. Rizaludin Kaspin, Telekom research & Development Sdn. Bhd. TMR&D customers and the rapid development of new emerging Innovation Centre, Lingkaran Teknokrat Timur, 63000 , Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia. Email id: [email protected]. technologies have created 5 scenarios for Malaysia

150 International Journal of Computer Science and Electronics Engineering (IJCSEE) Volume 2, Issue 3 (2014) ISSN 2320–4028 (Online) telecommunication infrastructure to move forward. The 5 like smart phones demands is added to SMS number , strategies that can be implemented are [ 1,2,3,4 ], this will contribute to a potential Petabytes data. i. Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) iii. The number of hotspots subscribers and WiFi broadband ii. 4G network integrated with existing subscribers are 0.6 million in 2009, 0.79 million in 2G/2.5G/2.75G/3G network 2010 and 1.6 million in 2013. A potential consideration iii. 5G network for Outernet. iv. 5G network integrated with existing iv. Mobile subscriber 5.1 million in 2000, 33.1 million in 2G/2.5G/2.75G/3G network 2010 and 41.1 million in 2012. The cellular phone v. Outernet integrated with existing network population has reached 128 for every 100 people which is considered reaching saturation point with respect to III. METHODOLOGY population of Malaysia. For 3G subscriber the The research done by the author on the determination of subscribers are 427,000 in 2006 and 8.6 million in 2010 traffic offered aggregation to 3G access network by traffic which has grown 8 times within 5 years. The continue movement analysis method between Telekom Malaysia increasing demand for mobile speed and data will lead network to other Telco or Celco network was re-examine [1]. to new technology of 5G. In brief this study formulated three main step processes v. The fixed voice market DEL is still declining gradually methodology which are scenario analysis, traffic demand from 4.46 million subscriber in 2004 to 4.406 million forecast and optimal 3G access dimensioning. The primary subscriber in 2010. However this declining service has traffic data was measured in Telekom Malaysia from year been compensated by a steady increase of user Internet 2000 to year 2004 for a total of 19 months. The market of 16 million in 2014 while broadband users (fixed or analysis was also used to identify technologies and strategy wired + wireless) 6.4 million subscriber in 2014. This adopted by the telecom industry. The regression analysis for indicate a continue traffic migration from fixed network to mobile network. relation between voice for fixed network , Internet and OLNO traffic for mobile were tested significant. The Malaysia Telecom infrastructure has be reviewed The latest secondary data through reports by Malaysia using the existing results conducted from 1998 to 2006 and Communications and Multimedia Commission (MCMC) [ extending the results with the market observation information 2,3,4 ] for year 2012 are then map into the above Telco available from 2007 to today. The historical results from 1998 traffic movement results and where appropriate trending to 2014 estimated then the probability of the future network results or forecast estimation extended to years beyond 2004. beyond 2020 for Malaysia then forecasted The study also review 5G technology that will go beyond 2020 mobile technology. The 5G V. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION technology is expected to offer higher capacity gain, In conclusion the voice traffic continue declining but can connections to billions of devices which is useful for Internet be substitute by broadband Internet traffic. The mobile of Thing (IoT) concept and customer low latency with high technology has become transparent to consumers from 2006 speed experience for future rich applications smartphone and have the potential to migrate to 5G in the future. Also the users. The decision have to be made where Malaysia will go petabytes data and Outernet have shown as possible after evolved from existing technologies 3G, 4G , LTE and WiFi. The need to address large data especially with rich parameters to be considered in future regression analysis. applications also cover in this study. It is recommended that further study conducted to obtain The Outernet which have the ambition to provide free results that will forecast/predict network scenarios on year access to content from the web through geostationary and 2020 and the forward strategies to reach this target. This Low Earth Orbit satellites, are also explored to identify study outcome will be presented in the International whether it can become another significant parameter for Infrastructure Conference 2014 (IICON 2014) December future prediction and forecasting research in Malaysia. 2014 in Malaysia.

IV. ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION VI. REFERENCES [1] A. Razak Yaacob, (2007), Determination Of Traffic Offered Aggregation The re-examination of primary data Telco-Celco traffic To 3G Access Network By Traffic Movement Analysis Method In movement analysis with secondary market data analysis and Malaysia, Thesis UTM. mapping to MCMC 2012 reports have enabled the conclusion [2] Malaysia Communications and Multimedia Commission, 2012, MCMC Annual Report 2012, MCMC. of the following results. [3] Malaysia Communications and Multimedia Commission, 2012, Q4 2010 i. The population of Malaysia is 25 million in 2002, 28 Communications and Multimedia – Selected Facts and Figures, MCMC. million in 2010 and expected to reach about 30 million [4] Malaysia Communications and Multimedia Commission, 2012, Communications and Multimedia – Pockets Books of Statistics . Q1 2014, by 2018. MCMC. ii. Short Messaging Service (SMS) has grown from 3 billion SMS in 2002 to 97 billion messaging in 2010. Increase by 32 times within 8 years. If other parameter

151 International Journal of Computer Science and Electronics Engineering (IJCSEE) Volume 2, Issue 3 (2014) ISSN 2320–4028 (Online)

Ir. Dr. A.Razak Yaacob, B.Sc in Electrical and Electronic Engineering (1980), M.Eng. In Communication Engineering (1987), MBA (2000), Doctor of Engineering (2007). He has been attached with various Division in Telekom Malaysia Berhad as manpower planning, traffic engineering planning, data switching, NMS, network traffic engineering, traffic forecasting/dimensioning and corporate strategy from 1980 to 2004. From 2005 to 2011 he is attached as program leader for IP Network Technologies at TMR&D. From 2012 to now he is Associate Professor at Faculty of Engineering and Technology Infrastructure , IUKL. His research interest currently is in network planning and forecasting for NGN/IMS/Mobile and IPv4/IPv6.

Ir. Rizaludin Kaspin received his B.Eng in Elecrical & Electronics Engineering from University of Manchester in 1992, and MSc in Network & Communication Engineering from UPM in 2003. He initially joined Telekom Malaysia in 1993 as network planner and later in 2003 he was seconded to TMR&D as a researcher, and currently as Head of NGN/IMS Laboratory. His research interest includes network planning and dimensioning, IP networking and optical networking..

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