Industrial Competitiveness: Changing hierarchies in a pan-European perspective
Jan Krzysztof Bielecki, CEO, Bank Pekao S.A., Poland, UniCredit Group Brussels, Tuesday, 17 March 2009 Increasing relevance in EU trade (exports of country to EU-15 imports, normalized 1995=100) Source: IMF-DOTS, current prices
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 199 1 1 1 2 2 200 2 2 2 2 US CEE Latin America Emerging Asia China EU15
2 Evolution of trade shares of NMS countries in EU-15 markets Source: UniCredit Research Network on Global Insight Data
Paper Chemicals
-0.5%0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% Wood
-2.5%
Non Metallic mineral products -4.5% Leather Intra-EU trade Machinery Food
(change of EU-15intra-trade market share, 2000-2007) -6.5% Electrical Eq. Rubber and Basic metals Plastic Automotive Textile and apparel -8.5% Increasing role of CEE as supplier of EU-15 (change of CEE market share in EU-15 imports, 2000-2007)
3 Percentage of exports to CEE countries Source: UBS
4 % Sales generated in Eastern Europe (incl. Russia)
% Sales generated in Eastern Europe (inlc. Russia)
Sectors Companies - some examples Food & beverages 12% Vienna Insurance Insurance 46% Auto and parts 10% Erste banks 35% Telecom 9% Telekom Austria telecom 34% Personal & Household goods 8% Suedzucker Food & beverages 33% Banks 8% Wienerberger Constraction & materials 30% Basic Resources 8% Strabag Constraction & materials 28% Constraction & materials 7% Austrian Airlines Travel 24% Chemicals 6% Fomento De Constr. Constraction & materials 20% Retail 5% Italcementi Constraction & materials 20% Technology 5% Metro Retail 19% avg Stoxx 600 5% Henkel Personal & Household goods 19% Health care 4% Arcelor Mittal Basic resources 18% Industrial Goods and Services 4% Renault Automotive 14% Insurance 3% Scania Automotive 14% Media 1% Imperial Tobacco Personal & Household goods 13% Travel and Leisure 1% Swedbank banks 13% Utilities 1% Ericsson Technology 13%
Source: Goldman Sachs
5 Hotel arrivals of non-residents, 2005 Source: Eurostat
6 Gross monthly average wages and „competitiveness”: NMS and China Source: World Economic Forum, UniCredit Research Network
9
8 Bosnia-H.
7 Moldova Ukraine Serbia
6 Bulgaria Romania
5 Russia Turkey Croatia China 4 Lithuania Poland Hungary 3 Slovakia Latvia Czech R. Slovenia 2 Estonia 1 WEF Competitiveness index (Deciles) index Competitiveness WEF
0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
7 A level playing field Attractiveness by region (2006-2008)
8 Gross average monthly wages (2008 estimates, Euro)
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
ry a y a i e ia ia tv s nia rb oatia a a ia-H. r oland L m hstan e lovenia lovakiaC P Turk Rus o k S S EstoniaHung S Bulgaria Lithuania R Bosn Czech Rep. Kaza
9 Growth in credit from abroad and competitiveness (2000-2008) Source: BIS, World Economic Forum
80
LV 70
UA 60
RO EE BH BG 50 LT
40 HR SL
HU 30 PL
Growth in cross-border credit cross-border in Growth IE ES CZ NL FI GR 20 FR DK TK GB PT BE IT AT SE 10 DE CH
0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 Competitiveness index (World Economic Forum)
10