Battling Terrorism in the Horn of Africa Robert I. Rotberg, Editor 0030401 02 05 0030401 02 05 0030401 02 05 00-7570-6 ch0 rotberg fm 10/17/05 1:44 PM Page i Battling Terrorism in the Horn of Africa 00-7570-6 ch0 rotberg fm 10/17/05 1:44 PM Page ii Other World Peace Foundation Books by Robert I. Rotberg State Failure and State Weakness in a Time of Terror (2003) Ending Autocracy, Enabling Democracy: The Tribulations of Southern Africa 1960–2000 (2002) Peacekeeping and Peace Enforcement in Africa: Methods of Conflict Prevention (2000) Creating Peace in Sri Lanka: Civil War and Reconciliation (1999) Burma: Prospects for a Democratic Future (1998) War and Peace in Southern Africa: Crimes, Drugs, Armies, Trade (1998) Haiti Renewed: Political and Economic Prospects (1997) Vigilance and Vengeance: NGOs Preventing Ethnic Conflict in Divided Societies (1996) From Massacres to Genocide: The Media, Public Policy, and Humanitarian Crises (1996) 00-7570-6 ch0 rotberg fm 10/17/05 1:44 PM Page iii Battling Te r r orism in the Horn of Africa Robert I. Rotberg Editor World Peace Foundation Cambridge, Massachusetts Brookings Institution Press Washington, D.C. 00-7570-6 ch0 rotberg fm 10/17/05 1:44 PM Page iv About Brookings The Brookings Institution is a private nonprofit organization devoted to research, education, and publication on important issues of domestic and foreign policy. Its principal purpose is to bring the highest quality independent research and analysis to bear on current and emerging policy problems. Interpretations or conclusions in Brookings publications should be understood to be solely those of the authors. Copyright © 2005 The World Peace Foundation Battling Terrorism in the Horn of Africa may be ordered from: Brookings Institution Press, c/o HFS, P.O. Box 50370, Baltimore, MD 21211-4370 Tel.: 800/537-5487 410/516-6956 Fax: 410/516-6998 www.brookings.edu All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Brookings Institution Press. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data Battling terrorism in the Horn of Africa / Robert I. Rotberg, editor. p. cm. Summary: "Examines the state of governance in the countries of the greater Horn of Africa region—Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, the Sudan, and Yemen—and discusses strategies to combat the transnational threat of terrorism, including suggestions for more effective U.S. engagement in the region"—Provided by publisher. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN-13: 978-0-8157-7570-6 (cloth : alk. paper) ISBN-10: 0-8157-7570-9 (cloth : alk. paper) ISBN-13: 978-0-8157-7571-3 (pbk. : alk. paper) ISBN-10: 0-8157-7571-7 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Terrorism—Africa, Northeast—Prevention. 2. Islam and politics—Africa, Northeast. I. Rotberg, Robert I. II. World Peace Foundation. III. Brookings Institution. HV6433.A3553C65 2005 363.32'0963—dc22 2005023711 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 The paper used in this publication meets minimum requirements of the American National Standard for Information Sciences—Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials: ANSI Z39.48-1992. Typeset in Minion Composition by OSP, Inc. Arlington, Virginia Printed by R. R. Donnelley Harrisonburg, Virginia 00-7570-6 ch0 rotberg fm 10/17/05 1:44 PM Page v Contents Preface vii 1 The Horn of Africa and Yemen: 1 Diminishing the Threat of Terrorism Robert I. Rotberg 2 Somalia and Somaliland: 23 Terrorism, Political Islam, and State Collapse Kenneth J. Menkhaus 3 Djibouti: 48 A Special Role in the War on Terrorism Lange Schermerhorn 4 Eritrea: On a Slow Fuse 64 Dan Connell 5 Ethiopia: Governance and Terrorism 93 David H. Shinn 00-7570-6 ch0 rotberg fm 10/17/05 1:44 PM Page vi vi Contents 6 The Sudan: Political Islam and Terrorism 119 Timothy Carney 7 Yemen: 141 Political Economy and the Effort against Terrorism Robert D. Burrowes 8 Kenya: The Struggle against Terrorism 173 Johnnie Carson Contributors 193 Index 196 00-7570-6 ch0 rotberg fm 10/17/05 1:44 PM Page vii Preface his book originated in a very lively exchange of views Tamong a collection of seasoned diplomats, scholars, intel- ligence officials, and military officers at the John F. Kennedy School of Harvard University in late 2004. The papers discussed there, now much revised and supplemented, have become the country chapters that follow. (For a summary of the original meeting and the discussions that took place, as well as a list of participants, see Deborah L. West,“Combating Terrorism in the Horn of Africa and Yemen” [Cambridge, Massachusetts, 2004], www.worldpeacefoundation.org/publications.html.) Deborah West guided the detailed editorial process that helped to trans- form the early papers into the basis of this book. Elisa Pepe organized the conference in 2004 and has provided administra- tive support to the enterprise throughout. For very useful, timely critiques of the first chapter in this vol- ume, I am extremely grateful to Barbara Bodine, Robert Burrowes, Timothy J. Carney, Dan Connell, Lange Schermer- horn, and David Shinn. For their willingness to write well and to tight deadlines, I am, as editor, enormously appreciative of all the vii 00-7570-6 ch0 rotberg fm 10/17/05 1:44 PM Page viii viii Preface contributors, as well as for their collegiality and astuteness. The Board of Trustees of the World Peace Foundation, especially Dean Philip Khoury, its chair, provided strong backing for the meeting and this book; so did Graham T. Allison, the director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs in the Kennedy School, and his staff. The authors and I remain pro- foundly appreciative of all of their advice and support. Robert I. Rotberg July 4, 2005 00-7570-6 ch0 rotberg fm 10/17/05 1:44 PM Page ix Battling Terrorism in the Horn of Africa 00-7570-6 ch0 rotberg fm 10/17/05 1:44 PM Page x The Greater Horn of Africa and Yemen IRAN ISRAEL IRAQ Cairo JORDAN KUWAIT SAUDI BAHRAIN R ARABIA QATAR EGYPT Riyadh Aswan E D Wadi-Halfa Jeddah S E DARFUR Port Sudan A Atbara Blue Nile Kassala YEMEN Asmara Khartoum ERITREA Sanaa El Fasher White Nile Aden El Obeid Lake DJIBOUTI Gulf of Aden Tana Djibouti PUNT SUDAN Berbera SOMALILAND Addis Ababa Hargeisa Rumbek ETHIOPIA Juba SOMALIA CONGO UGANDA KENYA Kampala Mogadishu Kisumu Merka Lake Kismayu RWANDA Victoria Nairobi BURUNDI INDIAN Mombasa OCEAN TANZANIA Zanzibar f i j i 01-7570-6 ch01 rotberg 10/17/05 8:31 AM Page 1 1 The Horn of Africa and Yemen Diminishing the Threat of Terrorism Robert I. Rotberg he greater Horn of Africa thrusts itself toward Yemen and Thence the heart of Arabia and the Persian/Arab Gulf. Within the complex region of northeastern Africa that extends from the peaks of Kilimanjaro to the depression of Djibouti and from the deserts of Chad to the Red Sea and on southward, past Cape Guardafui, to the barren coastline of Punt, there are 149 million people, more than half of whom are Muslims.1 For geostrategic reasons, especially in an era of terror, Yemen belongs naturally to this greater Horn of Africa region, adding another 20 million people, virtually all Muslims. Although not necessarily cohesive physically, despite the unifying Rift Valley theme (from the Sudan and Djibouti south through Ethiopia and into Kenya), in the global battles for freedom and democracy and against terrorism these seven nation-states (Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, the Sudan, and Yemen) astride the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the Indian Ocean share a common enemy. They also roughly share a paucity of resources and unful- filled desires for rapid economic advancement. Al Qaeda can strike anywhere. It has already struck twice in Kenya, at least once in Somalia, and once (with at least two 1 01-7570-6 ch01 rotberg 10/17/05 8:31 AM Page 2 2 Robert I. Rotberg important retaliations) in Yemen. So the greater Horn of Africa and Yemen region is bound together by its recent history as a sometime target, by its geo- graphical proximity to the homeland of Osama bin Laden and the primary regional object of his political anger, by long and continuing interrelationships of licit and illicit trade, by religion, by centuries of Muslim-Christian accom- modation and antagonism, by renowned resistances against Western colonizers (in the Horn), and by shared poverty, poor governance, and under- development. This complex web provides a tasting menu for potential terrorists.2 Moreover, as the bulk of this book demonstrates, existing instability and potential sources of future conflagration offer added opportunities for infil- tration, interference, and backing for extremists. Intensifying repression in Eritrea, unresolved tension between Eritrea and Ethiopia over their disputed border, the genocidal civil war in Darfur, biddable nonstate actors in southern Somalia, Ethiopian attempts to interfere in Somalia, the porous quality of the Somalia-Kenya border, a steady flow of arms and refugees between Yemen and Somalia and Ethiopia, the ease of money laundering (or traceless money transfers), and the widespread availability of inexpensive light weapons and ammunition all provide openings for Al Qaeda infiltration, the effective sub- orning of local officials, and the coalescence of terrorist surges. Actual Al Qaeda operatives and sleepers in this region in 2005 are few, but dangerous. Additionally, those with hard knowledge of the region believe that cells linked both loosely and more tightly to Al Qaeda exist, especially in Yemen, Somalia, Kenya, and beyond into Tanzania and the Comoros. Find- ing and neutralizing those existing and potential pockets of Al Qaeda demands concerted diplomatic, intelligence, law enforcement, and military initiatives.