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Activision Blizzard, Inc Investment Club Presentation Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI) Analyst: Niko Martinovic 5-Yr Stock Performance $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 Decline in stock primarily driven by analyst sentiment changes, missing expectations, CFO firings, $20 and most recently, Bungie games leaving ATVI $10 $0 1/15/20144/15/20147/15/201410/15/20141/15/20154/15/20157/15/201510/15/20151/15/20164/15/20167/15/201610/15/20161/15/20174/15/20177/15/201710/15/20171/15/20184/15/20187/15/201810/15/2018 Source: AIM/Martinovic 2018, Company Filings, S&P Capital IQ, and IBIS World 2 They’re Wrong Activision Blizzard has three meaningful and diverse revenue streams that can all grow in unique ways. E-Sports and Virtual Reality are the most exciting growth opportunities in this industry and ATVI is the best positioned to take advantage of it with the power of their brands, aggressive R&D spend, and patience. Source: 3 Note: Three Year Stock Performance ATVI has outperformed the S&P consistently since early 2017 while the Peer Set1 has reverted back. 160.00% 140.00% Stock Price $46.85 Shares Outstanding $762.41mm 120.00% Market Cap $36.08bn 52 Week Range $43.71-$84.68 100.00% Avg. Volume 7,550,000 EPS (TTM) $2.13 80.00% Past Month Performance -1.60% Past 1 Year -33.63% 60.00% Past 5 Year 170.36% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% -20.00% -40.00% 1/15/2016 4/15/2016 7/15/2016 10/15/2016 1/15/2017 4/15/2017 7/15/2017 10/15/2017 1/15/2018 4/15/2018 7/15/2018 10/15/2018 S&P ATVI Peer Set Source: AIM/Martinovic 2018, Company Filings, S&P Capital IQ, and IBIS World 4 1Electronic Arts, Ubisoft, Take Two Interactive, Square Enix, and Zynga Company Overview & Monetization Activision Blizzard, Inc. • Number one global developer and publisher of interactive entertainment content and services • Competitive and Fragmented Industry, but ATVI has highest market share (7%), EA (5%), Nintendo (5%), Ubisoft (2%) • Branching out into e-sports and films using their brands as the selling point Activision Publishing Blizzard Entertainment King Digital Entertainment • Call of Duty, Destiny, Spiderman, • Major League Gaming (MLG) • Candy Crush Saga, Farm Heroes Crash Bandicoot, Legend of Spyro (Free to Play) • Overwatch (20 teams) - • Retail and online for $60+ $45mm per team • In top 5 of highest grossing apps of last 17 consecutive • Partnership with Netflix for an • Call of Duty League quarters (In-App Purchases) animated TV Show (Skylanders Academy) • World of Warcraft: ~5mm users • Partnership with Facebook • Call of Duty Movie: Sicario’s • $50 for the game, plus $15 a • Set to release a betting related game Director month with a casino feel later this year $2,628mm1 $2,139mm $1,998mm Source: AIM/Martinovic 2018, Company Filings, S&P Capital IQ, and IBIS World 5 12017 Revenue by Segment Corporate Governance and Compensation Who sits on the Board? Base Salary is Not Where the Money Is… Director Name Age Principal Occupation Independent • CEO is expected to own shares of ATVI Since common stock equal to at least ten times his Independent Governance and Reveta Bowers 69 2018 base salary Organizational Consultant ü Retired CFO of Avon • Robert Kotick currently holds shares Robert Corti 68 2003 Products ü with a value equal to 134 times his Chairman and CEO of current annual base salary. Hendrik Hartong 51 2015 Brynwood Partners ü • All executives’ base salaries are less than 10% Chairman of the Board of Brian G. Kelly 55 1995 of their annual compensation. Activision Blizzard • Kotick believes in granting equity awards for Robert Kotick 55 1991 CEO of Activision Blizzard employees Retired Chairman and CEO Barry Meyer 74 2014 of Warner Bros. ü Long Standing Management Entertainment Retired Chairman and CEO • Robert Kotick has been CEO for 27 years Robert Morgado 75 1997 of ü Warner Music Group • Brian G. Kelly has been Chairman for 24 years Senior Advisor to Leonard Peter Nolan 59 2013 Green & Partners ü • Spencer Neumann Fired Jan 2019 (Netflix) Chairman and CEO of Casey Wasserman 43 2015 Wasserman ü • Dennis Durkin ($15mm award) Elaine Wynn 76 2013 Co-founder of Wynn Resorts ü • Was previously CFO of ATVI and was CCO before promoted to this role Source: AIM/Martinovic 2018, Company Filings, S&P Capital IQ, and IBIS World 6 Industry Overview Disruption in the Industry (Growth Opportunities) Gaming Industry Revenue (in $bn) • Battle Royale Mode with Free to Play models 160 CAGR: 11.2% • Epic Games: Fortnite - Recently reached $1bn 138 140 131 in revenue 124 120 115 • New Call of Duty Blackout Mode 105 100 93 • E-Sports Leagues 82 80 71 • ATVI is the biggest player; viewership already 61 53 exceeds that of the NFL and NBA 60 • Virtual Reality (Facebook, Google, Microsoft) 40 • Many argue this is the future of gaming 20 • “We will not roll out VR products until we - - 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019* 2020* 2021* believe we are pushing the art form forward” Porters “Five” Forces • High: Lots of competing • Medium: Capital is required to Threat of Threat of New produce a new game, but if it’s a Substitutes products and can take away Entrants revenues hit, the maker can become a new player (Epic Games) • • Bargaining Power Low: The movement away from Bargaining Power Medium: Games have been at of Suppliers discs has kept supplier of Customers the same $60 price point for involvement very low years, but that is changing Source: AIM/Martinovic 2018, Company Filings, S&P Capital IQ, and IBIS World 7 Impressive Margin Resilience Activision Sales Volumes Keep Gross Margins Flat Gross Margin Percentage Relative to Peer Set • Activision is in such a leading position in terms of brand 68.0% and offering that huge volumes of customers continue to 66.0% buy their products year after year 64.0% 62.0% • Developing a game costs a little more each year than it used 60.0% to as new technologies like “Unreal Engines” continue to be 58.0% utilized and games become larger with more content, but 56.0% that cost is offset by sales growth 54.0% 52.0% • The Peers have caught up to ATVI by implementing better 50.0% cost structures 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 ATVI Peer Set “Movement to Digital” and E-Sports Franchising EBITDA Margin Relative to Peer Set 35.0% • Games are no longer being pressed onto discs in quantities 30.0% that they used to: you can download a game right from your console: Decreased packaging costs 25.0% 20.0% • Licensing and Franchising is essentially cost free revenue 15.0% that helps keep their Gross and EBITDA margins high 10.0% • The Peers do not have the brand/franchise strength of 5.0% ATVI and this gives them an advantage 0.0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 ATVI Peer Set Source: AIM/Martinovic 2018, Company Filings, S&P Capital IQ, and IBIS World 8 Primary Discovery (Who said gaming is unproductive?) Chief Admin of World of Warcraft Impact on Valuation (Revenue Build) • One of the very few players who can access server data and see how many players are on the servers at a time • Told me that currently 4.2 million people are on the servers and that serious players will always buy the Revenue for WoW accounts for expansion packs ü 1/3 of Blizzard’s Revenue, this data is very informative ($15/mo) Interviews in Call of Duty Black Ops 4 • Will you be buying the expansion packs? Revenue build accounts for how • 60% of responses were affirmative ü many people buy the DLCs and • If a remastered version of COD MW2 came out next Expansion packs year, how much would you pay for it? • $100 was the consensus • How does Blackout compare to Fortnite? Revenue growth for 2019 is very • It is a more mature gameplay for a sophisticated ü much a factor of MW2’s audience remastered edition Source: AIM/Martinovic 2018 9 Revenue Build (in $mm) ATVI has found ways to grow their top line, whether through acquisitions, new product offerings, or growing a never before seen market Growth in Revenue Driven by Activision and Blizzard Segment $9,000 8,533.0 8,256.6 $8,000 7,968.9 7,536.3 7,697.5 $7,000 7,156.0 6,990.2 6,599.0 $6,000 $5,000 4,813.0 4,341.0 4,620.0 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Activision Blizzard King Distribution Activision Blizzard • 2019 Spike: Infinity Ward is developer of COD game; • E-Sports is the largest driver of growth for Blizzard MW2 Remastered Edition • Created an E-Sports Benefit Line Item • Remaining revenue growth is at 7-YR historical average of 3.0% • Also a historical average growth of 3.0% which was carried forward Source: AIM/Martinovic 2018, Company Filings, S&P Capital IQ, and IBIS World 10 Earnings Surprise History ATVI has beaten estimates 13 out of the last 14 quarters. They are a resilient and strong business that can out perform. They did beat on 3Q as well $1.00 0.94 0.92 0.93 $0.90 0.86 0.83 $0.80 0.74 $0.70 0.60 $0.60 0.54 0.52 0.49 $0.50 0.43 0.42 0.42 0.41 0.38 $0.40 0.35 0.35 0.31 0.30 $0.30 0.23 0.21 0.21 $0.20 0.16 0.15 0.13 0.12 $0.10 0.07 0.08 $0.00 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Estimated Adj.
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