Northamptonshire COVID-19 Weekly Surveillance Report

• 981 Northamptonshire residents have tested positive for COVID-19 in the last week. • Northampton’s weekly positive case rates are shown to be higher than the national average. • The majority of transmission continues to be within and between households. • Tier 2 restrictions are in place across the county until further review. • Coronavirus related hospital admissions and deaths are continuing to rise in the over 60s.

Data up to 6 December 2020

1 Protecting Ourselves and the Over 60s

2 Local COVID-19 Alert Levels

Tier 1: MEDIUM 10pm curfew on pubs and restaurants A three level COVID-19 alert system is now in Rule of six still applies place across England. Tier 2 : HIGH Help and guidance can be No household mixing indoors found here. Rule of six outdoors Reduce number of journeys made where possible Northamptonshire has been placed in Tier 2, Pubs must close unless operating as restaurants which is at high alert Tier 3 : VERY HIGH level. No household mixing indoors or outdoors in hospitality venues or private gardens Rule of six applies in outdoor public spaces like parks Pubs and bars not serving meals will be closed Avoid travelling in and out of the area

3 Tier 2 Restrictions

Help and guidance for all Tier 2 restrictions can be found here.

4 Your Actions Make a Difference!

• Don’t call us, the NHS will call you when the time comes for you to receive the COVID-19 Vaccine. Please don’t call the NHS, your local GP or any other local or national numbers. You will be called in due course as long as you are registered with a GP. Frontline health workers and the vulnerable will be the first to be vaccinated and in the meantime we all must continue to follow the guidance. Simple hand washing, social distancing and face covering are all extremely effective measures and must be maintained as we continue the fight. • Protect yourselves and especially the over 60s. Tier 2 restrictions and guidance are still in place which means only spending time with the people you live with indoors, either at home or in a pub, restaurant and cafes. This also means working from home if you can. Christmas parties are a definite no no! Let’s do everything we can to protect ourselves and each other and make sure that Northamptonshire goes down to Tier 1, not up to Tier 3. • Pregnant women and residents aged between 50 and 64 - book your flu jabs now and protect your immune system. This winter is like no other and we have to worry about the twin threats of flu and COVID-19. We want to protect our NHS services at this critical time by ensuring all eligible residents are protected.

5 Total and Weekly Summary A total of 15,538 positive cases have been identified in Northamptonshire to date. Of this number, 981 were identified in the last week, 30 November to 6 December 2020.

This graph shows the total number of people who have tested positive for COVID-19 in Northamptonshire each week since 14th September 2020. Weekly case numbers have decreased compared to the peak in the week of 9th November but the number of cases in the last week is slightly higher than the previous week. Weekly case volumes remain high and current case rates are similar to those pre-lockdown. The latest week’s figures are likely to increase further as data for the most recent days are subject to reporting delays.

* Please note that Public Health England have recently updated their methodology to link cases to the address entered at the point of ordering the test rather than patient GP registered addresses. Data has been amended retrospectively, therefore historic figures may not match previous weeks’ reports.

6 Total Cases by District and Borough

This table shows the total number of people who Cases in week have tested positive for COVID-19 up to 6 Total cases to Change from Area 30 Nov to 6 December 2020 in each of Northamptonshire’s 6 Dec 2020 previous week Dec 2020 seven districts and boroughs.

Northamptonshire 15,538 981  Northamptonshire as a whole has seen an Corby 1306 73  increase in cases compared to the previous week, and at a district and borough level Northampton, Daventry 1379 78  South Northamptonshire and Wellingborough East Northamptonshire 1734 75  have seen increases in cases. Northamptonshire’s total cases in the last week are over 5 times  Kettering 1985 105 higher than the weekly totals seen in mid- Northampton 6,044 443  September. South Northamptonshire 1597 102  Please note that extreme caution must be applied Wellingborough 1493 105  when viewing week on week changes. To see the overall changes in areas in context please see slides 12, 13 and 14.

7 Rate of Weekly Lab Confirmed Cases

This graph includes all testing data. It shows that Northamptonshire’s rate of cases in the last seven days is below the England average, however the gap between the Northamptonshire average and England average is now much narrower than it was at the beginning of November.

With the exception of Northampton, all districts and boroughs have weekly total rates below the England average. Case rates are currently on a decreasing trend across most of the county’s districts and boroughs – this needs to be maintained.

Northampton and South Northamptonshire have seen increases in case rates in recent days and as a result the overall rate for Northamptonshire has also increased.

* These are 7-day rolling total numbers of cases as a rate per 100,000 population – this is done to even out the fluctuations we see in testing volumes on weekdays vs weekends. Source: coronavirus.data.gov.uk.

8 Recent Cases by Age and Gender

This graph shows the number of positive test results for COVID-19 in Northamptonshire over the last 28 days by gender and by ten-year age band. Overall, more women than men tested positive for COVID- 19 in the last 28 days. The age group with the most positive tests was 40 to 49 year olds for both men and women. Case numbers are currently highest amongst working age adults. Over the last 4-week period, the total number of cases amongst people aged 80+ has increased, even as case numbers overall have decreased in the last three weeks. The proportion of all cases who are aged 60+ is on a rising trend. This is of particular concern as these age groups tend to be at greater risk of more severe disease and observed hospital admission.

9 Rate of Weekly Lab Confirmed Cases in Ages 60+ This graph includes testing data for people aged 60+. It shows that the rate of confirmed cases for people aged 60+ in Northamptonshire has started to increase in recent days following a decrease in mid- to late November.

East Northamptonshire’s case rate for ages 60+ has been higher than the Northamptonshire average in the last week. Northampton has seen a sharp rise in its case rate for ages 60+ in recent days and currently has the highest rate in the county.

Corby’s rate, which in mid-November was the highest in the county, has been on a decreasing trend and is now below the county average.

* These are 7-day rolling total numbers of cases as a rate per 100,000 population – this is done to even out the fluctuations we see in testing volumes on weekdays vs weekends.

10 Rates of Cases by District and Borough

The data in this table shows us what the total and Rate per Compared to Compared to Cumulative rate most recent week’s positive COVID-19 case numbers 100,000 27 county rate 27 England rate 27 Area per 100,000 to Nov to 3 Dec Nov to 3 Dec Nov to 3 Dec for our districts and boroughs would look like if each 3 Dec 2020 2020 2020 2020 area had the exact same population size (100,000).

Northamptonshire 2,014 131.6 - Sig lower This helps us to compare geographic areas with different sized populations more accurately. Corby 1,767 92.8 Sig lower Sig lower Daventry 1,556 97.7 Sig lower Sig lower Northamptonshire’s infection rate per 100,000 population for the most recent week is significantly East Northamptonshire 1,798 103.7 Similar Sig lower lower than the national average. Kettering 1,927 116.9 Similar Sig lower Northampton 2,623 186.1 Sig higher Sig higher All district and borough infection rates except for Northampton’s are either significantly lower than or South Northamptonshire 1,640 112.2 Similar Sig lower similar to the national average. Northampton’s rate Wellingborough 1,829 124.2 Similar Similar is significantly higher than the national average.

Source: coronavirus.data.gov.uk

*Please note that the word sig means ‘significant’ is a statistical term which simply means that the research is valid.

11 Education Status

These charts show recent trends in the percentage of schools open, children attending and COVID-19 related absences in both staff and pupils in Northamptonshire. All schools have been fully open in the last week. Attendance levels have been on an increasing trend since the middle of November but remain consistently lower than the average for Autumn term 2019 of 94%. COVID-19 related absences amongst both staff and pupils have decreased following a peak in the middle of November. COVID-19 related absences amongst pupils have more than halved compared to the peak. Details around outbreaks and exposures in education settings by district can be found on slide 16.

The University of Northampton reported 9 cases in the week 30 November - 6 December.

12 Cases by Community – Last 28 Days

The chart shows the local communities within Northamptonshire where COVID-19 infections over the last 28 days are highest.

Knowing the areas with the highest case numbers in the last 28 days help us to prioritise and focus our support locally.

13 Case Rates by Community – Last 28 Days per 100,000 population

These graphics show what positive COVID- 19 case numbers over the last 28 days would look like if each local community had the exact same size population (100,000).

The map illustrates the 28-day infection rate per 100,000 population across the whole county.

* Please note that the numbers shown on this page represent the best possible estimate we can make from a wider range of numbers, because there is always a margin of error when calculating cases per 100,000 population – particularly where actual case numbers are small.

14 Change in Case Rates by Community – Fortnightly per 100,000 population

If each community had the exact same size population (100,000) in 1. King's Cliffe, Woodnewton & Easton (EN) Northamptonshire, this graphic 2. Thorplands & Round Spinney (Nton) shows how COVID-19 case numbers 3. Cliftonville & Rushmere (Nton) in the last 14 days would have 4. Wootton & Collingtree (Nton) changed in each community 5. Burton Latimer, Broughton & Mawsley (Kett) compared to the previous 14 days. 6. Central Wellingborough (Wboro) 7. Snatchill (Cor) The 15 areas with the greatest 8. Billing & Riverside (Nton) increases in case rates are listed 9. Kingsley Park & Racecourse (Nton) next to the map. 10. Croyland (Wboro) 11. Queensway (Wboro) Areas with the greatest increases in 12. Delapre (Nton) rates of infection show us where 13. Daventry Central (Dav) we need to prioritise and focus our 14. Silverstone & Syresham & Helmdon (SN) support locally. 15. Geddington, Rushton & Stoke Albany (Kett)

15 Summary of Outbreaks and Exposures 07/12/2020

In the last 28 days Corby Daventry East Northants Kettering Northampton South Northants Wellingborough County total Case total Outbreaks 2 2 5 14 3 3 29 269 Care home/service 1 3 2 6 107 Outbreak Childcare 2 2 8 (two or more cases linked Workplace 3 3 19 by place and time to that setting) Education 1 1 3 5 58 Hospital/hospice 2 1 4 6 13 77 Other In the last 7 days Clusters 1 1 1 3 11 Cluster Care home/service 1 1 6 (two or more cases Childcare associated with that Workplace setting but not “connected by time and Education 1 1 2 5 place” to that setting) Hospital/hospice Other In the last 7 days Exposures 3 3 4 18 5 33 60 Exposure Care home/service 1 1 2 2 (single case where there Childcare 1 2 3 5 has been (or potentially Workplace 1 1 1 3 4 been) exposure to Education 2 2 3 14 4 25 49 contacts in that setting) Hospital/hospice Other

Total active situations 65 340 • Please note that this summary covers all situations classified as ‘active’. An active situation has had at least 1 positive case within the previous 28 days. • Although outbreaks have increased this week and are related to a particular setting - it is important to note that the majority of cases are due to community household transmission. • University cases are included in the Education category. 16 Winter Flu - Protecting the Immune System Winter Flu immunisation uptake up to to end of week 48 (29 Nov 2020) This data represents 92.8% of GP practices uploading their data for week 48. Please note that individuals can appear in more than one cohort, e.g. pregnant and in risk category.

Number of further Total Number eligible Number of immunisations Target Group immunisations required to Target % people given meet target Over 65 127,229 98,987 Target achieved 75% Under 65 at risk 88,874 39,683 26,973 75% Pregnant Women 5,599 1,592 2,607 75% 2 and 3 year olds 17,838 8,652 4,727 75%

The table below shows that the current progress for flu uptake has improved in all eligible categories compared to the same period in 2019/20 with the exception of pregnant women which had a small difference.

Total Combined At Risk STP Year 65 and over Population 6months to All Pregnant Women All Aged 2- 3 under 65 years

Northamptonshire STP 2020/21 77.8% 44.7% 28.4% 48.5% Northamptonshire STP 2019/20 66.3% 35.6% 31.2% 17.6% Northamptonshire STP Change +11.5% +9.1% -2.8% +30.9%

17 Public Health Measures

• Public Health Northamptonshire, Environmental Health departments within District and Borough Councils, Northamptonshire County Council and Northants Police have, and will, use enforcement powers where there is non- compliance in relation to COVID-19 Regulations.

• The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (All tiers) (England) Regulations 2020 came into force on the 2 December 2020 and amongst a number of new provisions impose restrictions on a variety of businesses within our local communities.

• There are a number of well established forums within Northamptonshire to discuss our approach and consider the implications of these new Regulations.

• A number of protocols have been developed and shared across all relevant enforcing authorities so that we can provide a consistent approach across this County.

• We will continue to engage, explain and encourage within our community to ensure the new provisions are implemented to support public health with the aim of reducing the transmission rate of COVID-19.

• Notwithstanding this approach, there are a number of existing provisions including wearing face coverings in certain settings; gatherings and a failure to self-isolate when required to do so, which will result in the use of proportionate enforcement powers aimed at protecting public health.

18 We Are All In This Together

• To find out more information about local testing sites visit: https://www.northamptonshire.gov.uk/coronavirus- updates/Pages/coronavirus-testing-in-northamptonshire.aspx. • Tests can be booked online at nhs.uk/coronavirus or by calling 119. Home testing kits can also be ordered subject to availability. • It is vital that when you leave the house to be tested you must go straight to the testing centre and return home immediately to self- isolate until you get your results. • Advice on how to access a COVID-19 test can be found here: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-getting- tested.

19 Partners Working on the COVID-19 Response PHE – Public Health England An executive agency of the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) which is the expert national public health agency which fulfils the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care’s statutory duty to protect health and address inequalities, and executes his power to promote the health and wellbeing of the nation. We work with the Midlands PHE Office.

Local Public Health Teams Part of Local Authorities (Upper tier and unitary) since 2013, led by Directors of Public Health with a number of specific statutory responsibilities, including health protection and local control of infectious diseases including immunisation and related functions.

Joint Biosecurity Centre (JBC) The JBC aims to provide evidence-based, independent analysis, assessment and advice to inform local and national decision-making in response to COVID-19 outbreaks. This includes: • helping to inform action on testing, contact tracing and local outbreak management in England • informing an assessment of the risks to UK public health from inbound international travel • advising on the COVID-19 alert level • acting as the main point of liaison between Local Authorities and the Chief Medical Officer and Secretary of State.

Environmental Health Officers Work within District and Borough Local Authorities and are responsible for monitoring and enforcing health and hygiene legislation. They are working closely with Public Health Northamptonshire on COVID-19 workplace outbreaks, with the COVID-19 Schools Cell and Northamptonshire County Council’s Test and Trace service.

20 Government Help, Guidance and Fines

• Financial support is now available for eligible individuals who have to self-isolate for up to 14 days. Details of financial support can be found here.

• Those who do not follow Test and Trace guidance, or those who breach self-isolation, will be fined.