NFL Draft 2015 Scouting Report: WR Breshad Perriman, C. Florida

2015 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

APRIL 23, 2015

*WR grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, Wonderlic test results leaked, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*WR-B stands for "Big-WR," a classification we use to separate the more physical, downfield/over-the- top, heavy-red-zone-threat-type WRs. Our WR-S/"Small-WRs" are profiled by our computer more as slot and/or possession-type WRs who are less typically physical and rely more on speed/agility to operate underneath the defense and/or use big speed to get open deep...they are not used as weapons in the red zone as much.

Two dilemmas arise for me with the news that Breshad Perriman has 4.1 or 4.2 or 4.3+ 40-time speed (speed time is depending upon who you ask/trust)…

1) If Breshad Perriman is lightning fast, how was he so quiet of a performer at Central Florida the past couple of seasons? I mean, 50 catches for 1,044 yards and 9 TDs is a nice tally, but it’s nothing like what Kevin White or Amari Cooper produced in their best seasons. If Perriman was so good, why would UCF only use him for 3.8 catches per game?

2) Are there so many prospects like Perriman now (6’2”/210+/4.3-4.4 speed), that the whole lot of them should suffer a supply-demand issue in the NFL Draft? Why draft one of them highly when there are so many alike? Perriman entering this ‘top WR’ discussion now may have been the tipping point.

First, let’s discuss whether Perriman is any good or not:

After watching the tape, I’ve come to the conclusion that if you had put Perriman in the West Virginia offense in 2014, you would have had the amazing White-like 2014 results. The Mountaineers averaged completing 8.3 more passes a game than Central Florida. It wasn’t just a volume ‘thing’ either. West Virginia smartly worked White anyway they could. The West Virginia QBs missed White open a lot, but the Head Coach smartly simplified things to get White plenty of safe touches, and some deep action as well. Central Florida was not as inventive with their top WR as was West Virginia.

Basically, UCF sent Perriman middle and deep on every passing play. Instead of building the offense around him, they were in love with their no-read QB dropping back pro-style and throwing to what he pre-decided to throw to. The UCF QB would often throw timing passes to other players, and never even glance at Perriman who was streaking open somewhere. Perriman’s gifts were wasted by UCF’s offense.

Just watching Perriman work middle slants and deep patterns on tape—you could see he is NFL- talented. He may get dinged a little for some drops, but the numbers weren’t that bad, and consider he was working much deeper down field than most…and with a mediocre QB. Had Perriman played in this

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2015 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

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2014 UCF offense with a more pinpoint QB, he might have double his yards and TDs. So many times Perriman sprung open on a quick slant leaving his defender in the dust and all the QB needed to do was hit him in stride and the 10-15 yard pass might have been a 50+ yard TD. Instead, Perriman was diving and adjusting for ill-thrown balls on the simplest of patterns.

I believe Perriman has ‘plus’ hands for the NFL. He can catch passes in traffic, or over adjusting to throws over his head on deep balls. He also catches with his hands, snatching passes like an NFL WR needs to…he’s not a body catcher or ‘double-grab’/bobble catcher of the ball. I walked away from the tape feeling Perriman had pretty sure hands.

Now, we learn he has NFL+ speed as well.

If you like Kevin White, then you have to like Breshad Perriman about the same. Which leads to the second issue here:

If you like Perriman in the range of White…does it mean Perriman is a top-15 pick? Does it mean White and Perriman, and the rest of the WR gang should drop in draft value when there are so many quality options? What’s a smarter business move—picking Kevin White 4th overall or Perriman 24th?

Look at how many WRs there are with the same general size-speed as Perriman and White…they can’t all go in the 1st-round/top-15…or can they?

WR Draft Last First College H H W Power Speed Hands' Score Yr Strngth Agility Metric Metric Metric 8.59 2015 Perriman Breshad C. Florida 6 2.0 212 6.78 10.06 8.67 9.71 2015 White Kevin West Va 6 2.5 215 8.55 9.54 9.05 8.46 2015 Conley Chris Georgia 6 1.7 213 7.79 8.38 7.78 9.48 2015 Parker Devante Louisville 6 2.5 209 5.37 7.93 9.11 6.79 2015 Coates Sammie Auburn 6 1.3 212 8.12 7.31 6.70 6.65 2015 Strong Jaelen Arizona St 6 2.3 217 6.66 2.29 8.30

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College football programs are going to flood these 6’2”/210-ish speedsters into the NFL in years to come, as the talented athletes shift to playing WR over RB-QB-TE. You definitely would like to have one of these talents, but what are they really worth? I can see where Perriman is a pretty close evaluation

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2015 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

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with White…and if that’s the case—why would I waste a top-5 pick on White? Perriman throws a monkey wrench in the WR draft valuations, and he may wind up as the best bargain among them.

Perriman, by all appearances, is a quality kid with NFL lineage. He’s shown elite NFL-speed times at his Pro Day. He looks good-great on tape. He has to be considered one of the top WRs prospects. UNLESS there is an issue with agility. He did not run the agility drills at his Pro Day so all we can do is project them from all the info we have. If there’s an issue…then this “Perriman as a 1st-rounder” conversation halts. However, we believe his agility would measure average-to-good for size-speed-athleticism based on the measurables we do possess.

Breshad Perriman, Through the Lens of Our WR Scouting Algorithm:

It could be that Perriman is a bit of a late bloomer—and that he was starting to kick into another level down the stretch of his 2014 season…

— Perriman scored 1 TD in seven of his final eight games, and in nine of his final 11 contests in 2014.

— In his final seven games in 2014: 4.7 catches for 92.4 yards and 0.85 TDs per game. Extrapolate those numbers over a 13-game season, and it tallies up to: 60+ catches for 1,200+ yards and 11 TDs…a little more ‘electric-like’ college numbers.

What scares you about Perriman, although it might be just the odd UCF passing game design, is the amount or games he caught three or fewer passes in. Perriman had three or fewer catches in a game in 11 of his final 15 college games. Kevin White, Amari Cooper, DeVante Parker…those guys were workhorses for their team…for them to catch three passes or less in a game was almost unheard of in their final season. Perriman was solid, but not as centric a weapon for his team…which I think is because of the UCF ‘send ‘em deep’/Torrey Smith-like usage of Perriman, but it’s possible other issues are hiding below the surfaces. I cannot see any major issues in our data, but our computer models are thrown a little by how someone with his skillset was not involved more.

Physically, obviously, Perriman has NFL-athleticism. You saw from the comparison table above—he’s very similar in size-athleticism to the other top-rated WRs. The question is: Does he belong ranked up in the top-20 overall for this draft with the other guys, or should he be a step behind? From everything we’ve seen, we cannot find a reason why he is not right with White-Parker-Strong-Cooper. The agility times being the only possible red-flag, which is an unknown as of this writing.

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The Historical WR Prospects to Whom Breshad Perriman Most Compares Within Our System:

Perriman really minds me of a bigger Torrey Smith coming out of college, and was wasted at UCF to a degree like Smith was underutilized with the Baltimore Ravens. Perriman has the speed and tracking skills to chase down the long ball like Torrey, but has better hands than Smith coming across on slants/in the short game.

In the end, I’m not sure if the proper Perriman comp isn’t 2015 top WR prospect Kevin White. White looked better on tape, but was afforded more opportunities to look good. When Perriman got his moments, he and White looked very similar in size-speed-ability.

WR Draft Last First College H H W Power Speed Hands' Score Yr Strngth Agility Metric Metric Metric 8.59 2015 Perriman Breshad C. Florida 6 2.0 212 6.78 10.06 8.67 8.45 2002 Walker Javon Florida State 6 3.0 210 4.86 9.63 7.58 7.71 2011 Smith Torrey Maryland 6 0.9 204 4.87 10.81 7.44 8.72 2007 Meachem Robert Tennessee 6 2.0 214 6.63 7.69 8.70 7.37 2007 Sims-Walker Mike C. Florida 6 1.8 209 5.91 9.80 8.90 6.00 2013 Johnson Charles Grand Vall St 6 2.0 215 5.87 4.37 8.72 8.04 2011 Hankerson Leonard Miami, Fla 6 1.5 209 5.21 7.82 11.25

*A score of 7.0+ is where we start to take a Big-WR prospect more seriously. A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of a Big-WR going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL Big-WR. All of the WR ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances. Overall WR score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for strength of opponents faced. Mixed with all the physical measurement metrics, rated historically in our database. “Power-Strength” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding physical size profiling, bench press strength, etc. High scorers here project to be more physical, better blockers, and less injury-prone.

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“Speed-Agility” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding speed, agility, physical size, mixed with some on-field performance metrics. High scorers here project to have a better YAC and show characteristics to be used as deep threats/to create separation. “Hands” = A combination of unique metrics surrounding on-field performance in college, considering the strength of opponents played. Furthermore, this data considers some physical profiling for hand size, etc. High scorers here have a better track record of college statistical performance, and overall this projects the combination of performance and physical data for the next level.

2015 NFL Draft Outlook:

Perriman is projected all over the map right now. Mel Kiper had him top-20 before anyone else even thought about him months ago. Some have followed Kiper and moved Perriman up accordingly, but most still show him outside the top 40-50. Now that he has posted the amazing 40-times at his Pro-Day. He’s likely to be projected as a top-25 guy in most mock drafts ahead. In the end, I think he’s a 1st-round pick, but I’m not sure how high…there are getting to be too many of these great WR prospects to choose from, which may cause their collective values to dip a bit.

If I were an NFL GM, and I could get Perriman at #20-30 after seeing Kevin White and Amari Cooper go top-10, and DeVante Parker top-15…I would be elated. Perriman belongs in the discussion as the top WR in this draft class…with the problem being: There are now 4-5 names in that ‘top’ argument, and will that water everything down for draft values?

NFL Outlook:

Today’s NFL is built for guys like Perriman—elite speed with nice size. He could get out of the gates huge in his rookie year. Perriman could be very interesting right away if he goes somewhere around #20-30 in the draft, because he is more likely to join a team where he can jump in as a strong #2 WR, instead of as a needed ‘franchise savior’. Eventually, Perriman can be a #1 WR, but he’s a much stronger #2. He’s more polished than Kevin White, so don’t be shocked if Perriman actually flashes ahead of White in their debut seasons…especially if White gets stuck on a dud team as a top pick.

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Signature______Date______4/23/2015

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