Climatic context and meteorological anomalies during 1783 in Eastern Iberian Peninsula. Atmospheric processes and impacts of a singular "Bad Year" Mariano Barriendos [email protected] Department of History and Archaeology

Armando Alberola1 University of Carles Balasch2 Mariano Barriendos3 José María Cuadrat4 CL1.03. Flood and weather EGU General Meeting Salvador Gil5 extremes of the Past Wien, April 2018 Mar Grau-Satorras6 Jordi Mazón7 Alfredo Pérez Morales5 Marc Prohom8 David Pino7 Miguel Angel Saz4 Ernesto Tejedor4 Jordi Tuset9

1: Department of Medieval and Modern History, University of Alicante, Alicante, 2: Department of Soil's Science and Environment, University of , Lleida, Spain 3: Department of History and Archaeology, , Barcelona, Spain 4: Department of Geography and Regional Planning, University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain 5: Department of Geography, University of Murcia, Murcia, Spain 6: Internet Interdisciplinary Institute, Open University of , Barcelona, Spain 7: Department of Physics, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain 8: SMC, Meteorological Service of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain 9: Fluvial Dynamics Research Group, , Lleida, Spain 1783. Year of Laki eruption. Evident and well known climatic factor producing hydrometeorological anomalies.

ERUPTION: + 8th June 1783 to 7th February 1784 + VEI: 6 OBJECTIVES OF RESEARCH: + Effects on Western Mediterranean Basin

+ Temperature anomalies

+ Hydrometeorological extremes

+ Perception of anomaly

Brázdil, R., Demarée, G. R., Deutsch, M., Garnier, E., Kiss, A., Luterbacher, J., Macdonald, N., Rohr, C., Dobrovolný, P., + Direct & induced impacts Koláˇr, P., and Chromá K.: European floods during the winter 1783/1784: scenarios of an extreme event during the ‘Little + Responses Ice Age’, Theor. Apol. Climatol., 100, 163–189, 2010. 1. Climatic context. Rainfall pattern variability

30y. Filter 10y. Filter Catastrophic floods frequency. 1.5 12 locations from Catalonia (NE Spain) FLOODS IN CATALONIA 1

0.5

0

-0.5 1301 1351 1401 1451 1501 1551 1601 1651 1701 1751 1801 1851 1901 1951 2001

Drought weighted index from 0.8 DROUGHTS IN CATALONIA “Pro pluvia” rogation ceremonies. 1760-1800. 4 locations from Mediterranean 0.4 Coast: Anomaly + Girona with higher 0 + Barcelona frequencies + Tarragona -0.4 both + Tortosa floods & droughts -0.8 11-year moving average 31-year moving average

1521 1561 1601 1641 1681 1721 1761 1801 Floods: Barriendos & Martin-Vide, 1998, Clim. Change Droughts: Oliva et al., 2018, Earth-Science Reviews 1. Climatic context. Circulation patterns during 1760-1800

Barriendos & Llasat. 2003. Clim. Change. Data generated from Luterbacher et al., 1999. 2. Temperature anomalies. Observations from Dr. F. Salvà Barcelona. Standardized 3.00 monthly average 2.00 1781-1790 (Deviation from period 1.00 1780-2017) 0.00

-1.00 Relatively normal

-2.00 conditions. Warm Winter -3.00 178 178 178 178 178 178 178 178 178 179 1783-1784 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0

3.00 Barcelona.

2.00 Standardized monthly average 1.00 2001-2010 0.00 (Deviation from period 1780-2017) -1.00 Similar values

-2.00 without volcanic -3.00 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 201 eruptions 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 3. Hydrometeorological extremes. Droughts Proxy-data series: Drought indices 0/+3. 1781-1790. + Girona Proxy-data from “pro pluvia” + Barcelona rogation ceremonies + Tarragona Yearly average for 8 locations. + Tortosa + La Seu d’Urgell + Vic + Cervera + Murcia

1.60

1.40

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00 1781 1782 1783 1784 1785 1786 1787 1788 1789 1790 Absence of significative drought events 3. Hydrometeorological extremes. Floods Events recorded on Spanish Mediterranean Coast June 1783 – March 1784. 43 cases.

4 Catastrophic Floods.

3 Complete destruction 6 of infrastructures 2 11 cases Extraordinary Floods. 4 Overflow without damages 7 cases 2 Persistent rainfall. Rogation ceremonies “Pro serenitate”, severe impact on harvest growing

2 by rainfall 4 25 cases

0 100 200 300 km 3. Hydrometeorological extremes. Floods Hydrometeorological Extreme Events recorded on 16 Catastrophic Flood Spanish Mediterranean Coast: 14 1783 Extraordinary Flood 12 Persistent Rainfall 10 + Above: 8 1783. Monthly frequency 6

4

2

0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 1783 + Below: 16 1783 – 1786. 14 Catastrophic Flood Extraordinary flood 12 Monthly frequency Persistent rainfall 10 8 6 4 2

0

JUL JUL JUL JUL

SEP SEP SEP SEP

NOV NOV NOV NOV

MAY MAY MAY MAY

MAR MAR MAR MAR

JAN 1784JAN 1785JAN 1786JAN JAN 1783JAN 1783 1784 1785 1786 4. Perception of event

One of firsts natural disaster well described:

+ Description of a “natural phenomena” without religious components.

+ Firsts periodic newspapers in Spain published chronicles as soon as news were arriving.

+ Well description of volcanic activity

+ Well description of optic/low atmospheric effects: - “Dry fog” every morning - “Red” sunsets...

4. Perception of event

Complete meteorological “analysis”:

+ 1783-1784. Autumn and Winter with anomalous rainfall

+ Description of anomalous event of persistent rainfall.

+ Persistent SE winds (warm and humid) - Change to E and NE winds. - Change to NW with snowfalls - + Change to SW with strong rainfall in Southern Spain

5. Impacts. Case of Valencia “Ya va para quatro meses que estamos inundados de agua. Están perdidas ya las cosechas del maíz, vino, passa, higos, algarrovas, aceite, frutas i verduras, i lo peor de todo, el trigo por sembrar”. (Letter from J. A. Mayans to F. J. Velasco de Ceballos, 13th December 1783) + Total affectation of different harvests by excessive rainfall. + Sowing of cereal (autumn) impossible + Affectation of trading activities and transport + Affectation of prices (market disturbances)

POTENTIAL RESEARCH: + Study of yearly statistics available for basic food production (ecclesiastical tithes, tax collection...)

+ Study of price anomalies on local markets (daily/weekly records on newspapers)

PROBLEM: + Long data series collection requires strong effort on documentary and printed sources. 6. Induced impacts. Malaria epidemics

+ Sanitary reports describe strong and general malaria epidemics. + Epidemics is related to rainfall anomaly producing lagoons and marshes.

Dr. Manuel Troncoso, 1785. SW Spain. Dr. Joseph Masdevall, 1786. NE Spain. 6. Induced impacts. Malaria epidemics 1783-1786

1.000.000 affected people 100.000 dead people

Most of Spain affected by epidemics

Valencia region statistics:

0 + Very low mortality : 9 /00 0 + Very high morbility : 250 to 500 /00 0 + Many towns morbility : 1000 /00

Source: Pablo Giménez Font. 2008. Investigaciones geográficas. Data from: Pérez-Moreda, 1980. Initiatives for post-crisis 7. Responses management:

+ Public health recommendations + Reduction of taxes...YES!!!!

Repport from regional authority of Valencia to Sanitary reports suggesting “Hacienda Council” (Ministery of Economy), preventive initiatives after 7th December 1783 rainfall anomaly recorded. 7. Responses New actitudes: Initiatives for preventive programmes:

Campomanes Action Plan, 1784 (Royal Order from Castile Council):

Data requirement every 15 days to regional authorities:

+ Meteorological conditions

+ Public health conditions

+ Evolution of harvests...

Pedro Rodriguez de Campomanes High Economic and Administrative Administration of Spanish Kingdom