DRM – Agriculture Task Force

Monthly Meeting Ministry of Agriculture Meeting Room

29th May 2019 DRM – Agriculture Task Force

Agenda 1. Welcome and Introduction 2. Review of Action Points from the Minutes of Meeting 30th April 3. Monthly updates: . Early warning weather forecast (NMA) . Regional Update (FewsNet) . Information Management 4. Update on Durable Solutions for IDPs/Returnees (RC/HC office) 5. Presentation: FAO Emergency Response Plan (FAO) 6. Update and plans from Flood Task Force (OCHA/NDRMC) 7. Update on the Belg Multi-Sectoral Assessment (OCHA/NDRMC) 8. AoB DRM – Agriculture Task Force

Minutes of Meeting from 28th March 2019 Action Points: . Agriculture Sector Coordinator to follow up during the next weeks on some of the pending issues (a) Regional DRM-ATF ToR, (b) IDP/Returnee/Host Community Document, (c) regional updates and (d) FAO presentation at the Cash Working Group on Social Protection. . NMA to share during the next meeting the list of zones that are expected to have low pasture availability, low crop harvest and zones that will be facing flood. . Agriculture Sector Coordinator to circulate the invitation from IPC to DRM-ATF members. DRM – Agriculture Task Force

Minutes of Meeting from 24th January 2019 Action Points: . Agriculture Sector Coordinator to contact Flood Task Force and ask them to present at the next DRM-ATF. . Agriculture Sector Coordinator to contact State Ministry of Livestock and ask if possible for them to present the drought conditions and impact on pastoralist communities in low-land areas. DRM – Agriculture Task Force

Monthly updates: Early warning weather forecast See Annex 3 DRM – Agriculture Task Force

Monthly updates: Regional update Famine Early Warning Systems Network

Rapid Food Security Assessment Findings

ATF Meeting, May 29, 2019 Addis Ababa, , Ethiopia OUTLINE

. Weather condition . Belg Crop cultivation status . Pasture, water and livestock condition . Market prices of staple and livestock

______FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 8 MAR-MAY 2019 WEATHER CONDITION

Onset: . Timely in northern in most parts of S/Omo . Late by 1-2 weak late in Southern part of S/Omo, E/W Hararghe, Lowland of Bale . Late by 4 weeks in Eastern Amhara Southern Tigray, and , most parts of Afar Distribution . Erratic in all parts of the country Cumulative amount (March01-May20, 2019) . 25-50% of Normal in Most, East/West Hararghe, lowland of Bale of Oromia, Fik and Fana zone of Somali . 50 to 80% of Normal in Somali, Borana, Guiji of Oromia, . > 80% in the other parts of the country Currently, the rains continued in most parts of the country that is expected to improve its seasonal total. Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov ______FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 9 BELG 2019 CROP CULTIVATION Area Planted . E/Amhara = nearly 100% . South Omo = >90% . S/Tigray = 50% . E/Hararghe = 28% . W/Hararge = 20%

Timeliness of Planting . Timely planted in most parts of SNNPR, and Guji Zone of Oromia and parts of Amhara . Late planting in the remaining Belg benefiting area of the country . No planting in most parts of Bale, E/W Hararghe, parts of North Shewa and Oromiya Zones Amhara and Tigray ______FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 10 BELG 2019 CROP CULTIVATION

Crop condition . Good crop stand but late in Amhara, Tirgay, S/Omo, mid-and highland of Bale . Wilted and stunted in E/W Hararghe and aborted in some cases

Crop pest: . FAW infestation

o 1159 ha in Benatsemay, North and South Ari of S/Omo zone

o 62ha in North Shewa zone of Kewet Woreda of Amhara

o 44 in Limo Woreda of East Wollega of Oromia . The area infested relatively low compared to previous years and control measure of both chemical and traditional methods being applied ______FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 11 BELG 2019 CROP CULTIVATION

Production Prospect: . Belg 2019 national production is expected to be below average due to

o Below average area planted

o Delayed, erratic and inadequate rainfall . More specifically, Belg crop failure in likely in E/W Hararghe as the coverage is much below average. . However the current rainfall will be helpful for Meher land preparation and planting of long maturing Meher crops (maize and sorghum), and perennial crops like chat, coffee, enset, and fruit trees

______FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 12 Crop, PASTURE, WATER AND LIVESTOCK CONDITION

Oromia . March to May belg rain season experience much below normal in central and eastern prats of the region . The obtained moisture has helped regeneration some pasture and recharging of water sources, which creates a good situation to maintain the body condition of livestock . No livestock diseases incidence of large scale was reported by the region . Generally, partners are responding in the areas of transfers (unconditional and conditional for rangeland/pond rehabilitation), emergency seed provision, animal health services, re-stocking (for IDPs) in Borena, East Harerghe, West Guji and West Wollega zones. . The regional agriculture bureau presented agriculture inputs needs in an effort to help recovery of IDPs in the region; . The bureau proposed provision of seeds, oxen, fertilizers, agricultural hand tools, etc. for the IDPs to resume production . The region appeals for a total financial assistance of 2,453,064,747 ETB to help a total farming and internally displaced HHs of 161,197 HH currently found in 8 zones (57 woredas) of the region.

______FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 13 BELG 2019 CROP CULTIVATION Belg crop condition in in E/W Hararghe

Meiso maize crops stand around Asebot, Unplanted prepared land in Anchare, 13 May 2019, relatively wet area of west Chorora PA of West Hararghe; 13 May 2019 Hararghe

______FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 14 BELG 2019 CROP CULTIVATION Dried Chat in Umer Kule Pa of Fedis Woreda in East Hararghe, May 15, 2019

______FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 15 PASTURE, WATER AND LIVESTOCK CONDITION . Pasture, and browse condition improved in most parts of the country

. Below average pasture in lowlands of Bale, E/W Hararghe of Oromia; Liben, Afder, and Fafan Zones of Somali

______FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 16 PASTURE, WATER AND LIVESTOCK CONDITION

. Water availability improved in all parts . However, shortage of water persisted in lowland areas of Southern and Eastern Oromia . As example, surface water shortage is at alert level as shown in the map in some surface water points of Borana of Oromia and Warder zone of Somali

______FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 17 PASTURE, WATER AND LIVESTOCK CONDITION South Omo . Livestock body condition improving except in the pastoral woredas of Dasenech, Hamer, Male and Gnangatom . Livestock moved from Dasenech to Omo Delta; and from other woredas to Maze and Mago national parks . No livestock outbreak diseases but massive fish death in Omo River reported in April 2019, assessment has conducted but the result is not yet released

E/W Hararghe . Livestock body condition emaciated . No milk production . Livestock death due to pasture and water shortage and associated diseases reported . Low conception and birth rate during the season so that herd size declined G/Bordede, in West Hararghe cattle physical condition,13/05/19 ______FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 18 PASTURE, WATER AND LIVESTOCK CONDITION

E/W Hararghe - - - E.g. Picture of recent livestock death due to pasture and water shortage and associated diseases reported in Mieso Woreda of West Hararghe

______FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 19 Crop PASTURE, WATER AND LIVESTOCK CONDITION Tigray . Six belg producing woredas received much below normal average rainfall. . According to the region’s meteorology forecast indicates that Meher rainfall onset will be delayed in all of the zones of Tigrai. . The delay will negatively affect agricultural activities such as land preparation. . Area planted reduced, from the planned 10,000 ha of land only 6000 ha of land was covered by crops. . It is expected that the belg crops yield of this yeatr will be significantly reduced / to complete failure . Availability of water and pasture is deteriorating in all woredas of . Situation is getting worsen starting from beginning of March, though overall body condition is reported as normal. . Humanitarian support though relief and PSNP aid is ongoing

______FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 20 Crop, PASTURE, WATER AND LIVESTOCK CONDITION

SNNPR . Most part of the region are receiving normal to above normal Bleg rain. . Hence, in most part of the region planting of belg crops is completed & performance of the belg crop is found in good condition. . Except some pocket areas, the amount and distribution of the belg rain is good . Pasture is well rejuvenated, ponds are recharged, and the volume of rivers are also increasing. . Following good availability feed & water, the body condition of livestock is found in good condition. . Due to favorable belg rain condition, no crop failure reported from any part of the region. . Most IDPs of Gedeo zone are returned back to their original place. . However, there is big gap in response of IDPs needs on agricultural inputs, farm tools & ploughing oxen. . The regional BoANR has been provided Emergency seed to some households who were affected during Meher . Livestock body condition improving except in the pastoral woredas of Dasenech, Hamer, Male and Gnangatom . Livestock moved from Dasenech to Omo Delta; and from other woredas to Maze and Mago national parks . No livestock outbreak diseases but massive fish death in Omo River reported in April 2019, assessment has______conducted but the result is not yet released FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 21 Crop, PASTURE, WATER AND LIVESTOCK CONDITION Amhara . Waghimra zone of lowland areas, north Wolloo, north Shoa and north Gondar zone of some areas face shortage of animal feed and water. . In north Shoa and central Gondar of some weredas face human drinking water shortage . 96 weredas in the region did not obtain rainfall up first week of May . In north Gondar zone particularly in Beyeda wereda, there is an infestation of Newcastle disease on chicken . Food grain supply reduced in Waghimra zone, while normal in the other weredas . Most crops’ price is increased in majority areas of the region. . World food program distributes balanced food support for children and mothers in 21 weredas . Humanitarian assistance ( 7143 quintal grain ) distributed for internal displaced people, . However the requested amount did not full supplyed and the displaced people are complaining.

______FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 22 PASTURE, WATER AND LIVESTOCK CONDITION

Afar . Though Satellite imageries shows about average range land WRSI, pasture availability observed to be is very low . To mitigate livestock feed shortage regional pastoral bureau transporting emergency livestock feed into drought affected woredas but not adequate . 120, 000 bell of forage harvested from Dubti regional fodder bank and distributed to . Water shortage for both human and livestock consumption is critical in most parts. Water rationing if going on for 15,000 peoples in the region . As a result livestock body condition is weak and most are emaciated . Milk production declined . High livestock mortality reported in many parts of the region due to starvation and drought induced diseases. . Conception and birth become below average that resulting in herd size reduction . High FAW infestations of maize crop during the reporting period ______FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 23 PASTURE, WATER AND LIVESTOCK CONDITION Somali . Rainfall below average in all parts but significantly improved towards end of April and in May 2019 . Water availability significantly improved . Livestock migration in search of pasture has observed in many places . Livestock body condition is not yet recovered as the pasture and browse is not yet fully regenerated . Number of milking animals or birth and Daily milk yield declined and most of the current milking livestock is late lactating . Vaccination of small ruminants against PPR, Anthrax, Lumpy skin disease, CCPP and Sheep and goat pox in 24 woredas. . Forage cultivation of 200 hectares is going in Gode using irrigation by the BoLPD. . Registration of 500 HHs Milk to Cash distribution to be conducted in Koloji IDPs camp. . Mobile bank registration (Hello cash) and distribution of livestock insurance coupons, valid for one year for 2,816 new HHs in Dollo ado, Adadle and West Imey woredas. . Income Generation activities, access to climate information, market linkages to be implemented in Kebridehar, Adadle, West Imey and Dollo ado woredas. . DPBB, UN NGOs dispatched two teams to assess the situation of 47,362 IDP households who returned to their original places in Fafan, Dawa and Sitti Zones within the Somali region except about 5600 Somali Babili woreda IDPs______who returned to inside Oromia. FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 24 MARKET PRICES . Both staple food and livestock prices are increasing in most local markets, but the staple food price have shown higher increasing rate than livestock. Possible reasons for price increase are:

o Below normal crop production in Meher 2018

o Increased cash availability in the market which generated from (PSNP, relief, sale of labor and other items)

o The continuedly increasing of inflation

o Increased fuel cost

o Security related issues . However, in Afar livestock price have shown higher increasing rate than food commodities compared to the five-year average. On the other hand in Somali, TOT is some what stable.

Market/commodities May 2019 Price Compared to May 2019 Price Compared to Same month Last Year%CLY last 5-year Averag Dasenech (SNNPR)-Maize 53% 70% Dasenech (SNNPR)-Goat 19% 30% Dasenech (SNNPR)-TOT -24% -22% Woldiya (Amhara)-Sorghum 100% 100% Woldiya (Amhara)-Goat 26% 36% Woldiya (Amhara)-TOT -37% -34% Awash (Afar)-Maize 17% 66% Awash (Afar)-Goat -25% 82% Awash (Afar)-TOT -40% 28% Dollo (Somali)-Sorghum 11% 64% Dollo (Somali)-Goat 16% 52% Dollo (Somali)-TOT 4% -3% ______FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 25 MARKET PRICES

Dasenech Market (maize and goat

Woldiya Market (sorghum and goat)

Maize Price in Awash Market Goat Price in Awash Market 1000 1400 1200 800 Awash Market 1000 600 800 (maize and 600 400 goat) 400 200 200

0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

L5YAve LY2018 CY2019 L5YAve LY2018 CY2019 ______FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK 26 DRM – Agriculture Task Force

Monthly updates: Information Management Addis Ababa – 29th May 2019

Ethiopia Agriculture sector 2019 Information Management Monthly Update

28 Outline

I. Information Management tool (5Ws) derivative products/outputs and Reporting timeline II. Challenges ( Data quality and inconsistencies) III. Next steps / Way forward

29 Acquiring the right data using the right IM tool

Other tools used by IMs

 ArcGIS / QGiS for Mapping  Adobe Illustrator for Infographics  Web-based Platforms; Tableau, Power BI, Map box.  ODKs (Android data collection tool); ODK collect, Kobo,  Analysis tools; SPSS, STATA Information Management Products and Outputs

1 5Ws Dashboard . HRP Dashboard at Federal level . HRP Dashboard at Regional Levels Quarterly bases ( Oromia, Somali and Afar) . HRP IDP Sites targets ( According to DTM)

2 Gap Analysis . Achievements and gaps against targets Informs response . Response using the HRP targets

3 Maps . Partners Presence Maps (this product is broken down to livestock and emergency seeds and tools activities)

4 Other Products . Newsletter . Funding Infographics 31 Partners Operational Presence Maps HRP Dashboard Gap Analysis Gap Analysis Monthly Reporting and Product Timeline

Partners report Maps update Monthly Newsletter to ALS on previous month 3Ws Collection of data beneficiaries RPM 5Ws report Gap Dashboard for monthly reached and report collation analysis bulletin update plans if to OCHA needed

1st to 10th 15th 20th 20th 25th 25th to 30th

36 Challenges 1. Irregularities in sending data in timely manner 2. Communication breakdown Challenges 1. Discrepancies in the data ( incompleteness of data). 2. Missing data and inconsistencies in the flow of data at activity and Woreda level 3. Partners 5Ws focal persons asking their regional colleagues to fill out the 5ws Challenges 1. Inconsistency in funding information reduces the quality of our products. 2. Funding information should be the same as reported in the FTS ( Financial tracking system). Next Step… .All products will be restructured using the updated administrative boundary (Only Admin3). .Partners operational Presence Maps will be broken down to livestock and emergency seeds and tools activities. .Quarterly Regional HRP Dashboard product will include SNNPR (if there is adequate data) .HRP mid year review (tentative) .HRP IDP Sites targets will be updated according to latest DTM release .Likelihood to implement online data collection tool (Infrastructure and Capacity) 40 DRM – Agriculture Task Force

Updates: Durable Solutions for IDPs/Returnees DRM – Agriculture Task Force

Presentation: FAO Emergency Response Plan ETHIOPIA HRP in numbers (February 2019) Current Situation

• The short rainy season failed in most areas limiting access to food and income.

• The poor animal body condition is affecting

• the market value of animals

• exacerbating spread of diseases

• limiting access to milk

• An increase in reported cases of lumpy skin disease, anthrax, sheep and goat pox, and brucellosis (NDRMC) Early Warning Early Action

• Provision of feed

• Vaccination in the face of outbreaks to contain the spread of diseases

• Treatment to reduce the effect of internal and external parasites

• Inject cash through Cash-for-Work programmes

• Promote feed production along riverine localities PROPOSED INTERVENTIONS • Emergency Feed Provision • Forage production and fodder bank development • Vaccination and Treatment of animals • Rehabilitation of water points through cash for work programmes • Slaughter destocking • Provision of agricultural inputs including cash (Cash +) • Support Coordination (information sharing, joint monitoring missions and surveys)

EMERGENCYEMERGENCYAND RESPONSEEHABILITATIONPREPAREDNESSDIVISION Timing Intervention Informed by DRM-ATF ROADMAPS Intervention Beneficiary Timeframe Budget Households 1. Protecting and safeguarding 20,000,000 of livestock 1.1 Feed 100,000 Jul–Sep (Emergency Feed) 10,000,000

Jul – Dec (Production) 1.2 Animal Health 475,000 Oct – Nov (Vaccination) 6,000,000 Jun – Dec (Treatment) 1.3 Rehabilitation of rangelands and water Jul – Dec 1,300,000 points

1.3 Destocking 75,000 Jun – Sep 2,700,000 2. Provision of agricultural 125,000 Sep – Dec 12,500,000 inputs 3. Strengthening coordination, information generation and dissemination 3,500,000

3.1 Information systems Jul – Dec 2,700,000 3.2 Coordination Jul – Dec 800,000 Total 600,000 36, 000, 000 DRM – Agriculture Task Force

Updates: Flood Task Force Flood update Belg 2019 Belg weather update

• April is a period when the rain-bearing system usually strengthens and expands. • South, Southwest, Central, and Eastern parts of the country would receive normal to above normal rainfall. • However, due to the erratic nature of belg season consecutive dry spell would also be likely in some cases. • Small Rain was expected in few zones of Somali Region in April. • The other parts of the country remain relatively dry during the month. Map: 2019 belg, Flood Risk woredas, including IDP hosting woredas at risk of flooding Situation update

• Flooding in Silti woreda of Silte zone on 15 April 2019 inundated 6 kebeles and damaged houses. • The flood displaced around 5,615 people and perished some 1,000 livestock. • A regional assessment team has been dispatched to the affected woreda • In addition, in April, Flood, Heavy rain accompanied with a Heavy wind caused a damage of 407 houses, 3 schools and 6 woreda administration offices, claimed 60 livestock deaths, and inundated a total of 201.6 ha of land in seven woredas of three regions (Amhara, Gambella, and Tigray). • Flood in Afar on 22 May due to the overflow of Mille and Ewa Rivers affected more than 2,900 people in 3 kebeles of Mille and Ewa woredas. Heavy rainfall in IDP sites

• Heavy rainfall reported in Gottiti and Babile • Belg rains and upcoming Kiremt season is expected to complicate the IDP response. • Poor Shelter, Disease outbreak and obstruction of access among the major challenges • The IDP hosting woredas, which are at risk of flooding, were included in the Flood Alert Way forward

• The National Flood Task Force reinvigorated on 22 April • National Flood Alert issued based on the NMA forecast • The FTF monitoring the situation through NDRMC DRM – Agriculture Task Force

Updates: Belg Multi-Sectoral Assessment