To: Interested Parties Fr: Pete Brodnitz, Expedition Strategies Re: Recent polling in ’s 10th Congressional District Date: September 24, 2016

The results of our recent poll of likely general election voters in Virginia’s 10th Congressional District shows that LuAnn Bennett is a strong general election candidate and is making considerable progress towards defeating Barbara Comstock.

LuAnn Bennett Has Begun to Introduce Herself to Voters and Raise Her Name ID While Comstock’s Unfavorable Ratings Have Risen

LuAnn Bennett is successfully introducing herself to voters during this campaign. Since May, she has raised her name ID by twenty-five points (12% in May, 37% in September). Her favorability has also more than tripled moving from 7% in May to 24% in September. In contrast with Bennett’s positive progress, Comstock has seen her unfavorable rating rise ten points from 25% to 35% while her favorable rating has only risen five points from 40% to 45%.

LuAnn Bennett Barbara Comstock May Sept. May Sept. ‘16 ‘16 ∆ ‘16 ‘16 ∆ Name ID 12 37 +25 65 80 +15 Very Fav 2 10 +8 13 17 +4 Fav/Unfav 7/5 24/13 +17/+8 40/25 45/35 +5/-10 Net Fav +2 +11 +9 +15 +10 -5

Bennett Has Closed The Gap On The Ballot, Now Narrowly Trails Comstock

Bennett’s ability to introduce herself to voters is paying dividends. While she trailed by eleven points when we polled in May, today Bennett trails by only four points (41% say they will vote for Bennett, 45% say they will vote for Comstock, 1% say they will vote for another candidate and 12% are undecided). When undecided voters are pushed to see which way they lean, Comstock’s lead shrinks further to two points (45% say they will vote for Bennett, 47% say they will vote for Comstock, 1% say they will vote for another candidate and 7% are undecided).

If the November 2016 election for Congress were held today, would you vote for …?

May September Δ 2016 2016

Difference -11 -4 +7 Democrat LuAnn Bennett 36 41 +5 Republican Barbara Comstock 47 45 -2 Another candidate 2 1 -1 Don’t know 15 12 -3

Difference -10 -2 +8 Bennett w/ leaners 40 45 +5 Comstock w/ leaners 50 47 -3 Another w/ leaners 3 1 -2 Don’t know w/ leaners 7 7 0

Arlington, VA [email protected]

A Majority of Voters Are Favorable Towards President Obama and Half Approve of the Job He Is Doing

President Obama is popular (60% say they are favorable towards him, 39% say they are unfavorable) and half (50%) say he is doing an excellent/good job as President, while 50% say he is doing a fair/poor job.

Obama Favorability Obama Job Approval Positive 60% favorable 50% excellent/good Negative 39% unfavorable 50% fair/poor

Two-Thirds Are Unfavorable Towards Trump While Voters Are Split On Clinton and Kaine Is Popular

Roughly two-thirds of voters in the district (64%) are unfavorable towards while only 35% are favorable towards him. Voters are almost evenly split on (48% favorable, 51% unfavorable) and is popular (56% favorable, 34% unfavorable).

Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable view of…? Donald Hillary Tim Trump Clinton Kaine Name ID 99 99 90 Very Fav 15 23 31 Fav/Unfav 35/64 48/51 56/34 Net Fav -29 -3 +22

And Clinton Has a Large Lead On Trump in The District

The district heavily favors Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in the Presidential race – Clinton leads Trump by 14% (49% say they will vote for Clinton, 35% say they will vote for Trump, 8% say they will vote for Johnson, 1% say they will vote for Stein, 1% say they will vote for McMullin, 1% say they will vote for another candidate, and 5% are undecided).

If the November 2016 election for President were held today, would you vote for?

All

Difference +14 Democrat Hillary Clinton 49 Republican Donald Trump 35 Libertarian Gary Johnson 8 Green Party candidate Jill Stein 1 Independent party candidate Evan McMullin 1 Another candidate (vol.) 1 Don’t know 5

VA-10 Polling Results Ι 2

But Voters – Regardless of Party – Think Comstock Will Go Along With Trump’s Agenda

Making the situation in the Presidential race difficult for Comstock is the fact that regardless of party, voters believe she will go along with Trump’s agenda and support his policies. 57% of Democrats and 59% of Republicans say that Barbara Comstock will go along with Trump’s agenda and support his policies not that Barbara Comstock will stand up to Trump and block parts of his agenda.

If Donald Trump is elected President in November, which is closer to your view? Party ID All Q17 Dem Ind Rep

Difference +31 +35 +20 +38

Barbara Comstock will go along with 54 57 47 59 Trump’s agenda and support his policies.

Barbara Comstock will stand up to Trump 23 22 27 21 and block parts of his agenda.

Don’t know 23 21 27 20

Expedition Strategies conducted 400 total interviews in Virginia’s 10th Congressional District September 19-21, 2016. The margin of error for overall results is ±4.90%. Expedition Strategies’ clients include Senator Tim Kaine (VA), Senator Mazie Hirono (HI), Congressman Adam Smith (WA), and Congressman Tim Walz (MN).

VA-10 Polling Results Ι 3