® ISTANBUL SECURITY CONFERENCE 2019 “Reassurance and Reengagement” 28-30 APRIL 2019 ABOUT KONRAD-ADENAUER-STIFTUNG
The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) is a political foundation with 16 regional offices in Germany and nearly 107 offices abroad, which combined are in charge of projects in more than 126 countries. Konrad Adenauer and his principles are our guidelines, our mission and our commitment. As a think-tank, our analyses are meant to offer a basis for possible political activities.
The work of KAS in Turkey began in 1983 with the invitation and initiative of the Former Turkish Prime Minister Turgut Özal and Former German Chancellor Helmut Kohl.
The focus of our work is to provide practical support to the Turkish democratization and reform processes, and thereby contribute to the harmonization of Turkish institutions to those of the European Union. An important goal in conducting those activities is to strengthen relations and promote political and economic dialogue both between Turkey and Germany as well as Turkey and the EU. To achieve this goal, we work together with various Turkish institutions that focus on a wide range of topics. To these ends, KAS Turkey sets up meetings between Turkish and German experts and politicians as well as organizes discussion events and field trips so that German cabinet ministers, members of parliaments, and young politicians are able to meet in person with their Turkish counterparts.
Some of our events at a glance:
Istanbul Security Conference® (ISC) Together with the Başkent University Strategic Research Center, KAS Turkey annually organizes one of the largest security conferences in Europe bringing together speakers from different countries with backgrounds in politics, military, academia, diplomacy, sciences as well as industry. This conference facilitates an important discussion about current security challenges. In doing so, we aim to both address current challenges as well as enhance mutual understanding among participants regarding the security threats they face.
Bosphorus Economic Dialogue In cooperation with AHK Turkey, KAS Turkey holds talks regarding intensive bilateral cooperation in the fields of education and technology in order to tackle common challenges, future perspectives and strategic development. The aim of those events is to address topics that are of great importance to German-Turkish economic relations. In particular, we focus on topics regarding the future of education and educational institutions as well as the role of digitalization for companies in the two countries.
KAS-BSEC-Workshop For more than 20 years, the KAS-BSEC workshop has been organized by KAS Turkey in cooperation with the Permanent International Secretariat General of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC PERMIS). The aim of the workshop is to create a dialogue platform and to connect policy makers in order to promote regional dialogue and cooperation among the countries in the Black Sea region.
German-Turkish Media Dialogue In order to discuss about the role and influence of the media in Germany and Turkey, KAS Turkey annually hosts the German-Turkish Media Dialogue that brings together media representatives and decision-makers from politics, academics and economy. In this dialogue, participants discuss and compare the media landscapes in the two countries from a technical point of view. Speakers and commentators address diverse topics including independent media landscapes, economic challenges, and the global challenges of classic journalism in the digital age.
www.kas.de/tuerkei/tr/
www.facebook.com/KAS.Tuerkei/
www.instagram.com/konradturkiye/ ABOUT BAŞKENT UNIVERSITY CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
Başkent SAM aims to make strategic analysis of foreign politics of Turkey and the region around Turkey. Center focuses on making predictions based on analysis about the ongoing political and socio-economic problems at the regions like Balkans, Middle-East, Black Sea and Far East. Başkent SAM uses these predictions to bring these problems to national and international platforms to be discussed for creating solutions.
Other topics in Başkent SAM’s agenda are globalization and its problems, role that global terrorism play on state’s security, strategies for allocating consumable energy sources like petroleum or water efficiently, new war technologies and protection methods from these new-techs, collaborating with other institutes works on strategic researches. In this context, Başkent SAM prepares conferences, workshops, seminars, discussion meetings and publications to bring different point of views together to create sustainable solutions to conflicts and problems in international politic issues.
www.baskent.edu.tr
www.facebook.com/BaskentUniv
www.instagram.com/baskentunv/
www.twitter.com/baskentunv
PRO GRAM KONRAD- ADENAUER- STIFTUNG TU RKEY (KAS)
® ISTANBUL SECURITY CONFERENCE 2019 “Reassurance and Reengagement”
Date: 28th-30th April 2019
Location: CONRAD Bosphorus Hotel Istanbul Cihannuma Mah. Saray Cad. No: 5 Beşiktaş - Istanbul Tel.: +90-212-310 25 25
Organization: Walter GLOS Director, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Turkey
Arzu YÜZGEÇ Project Coordinator, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Turkey Mobile phone: +90-543-533 31 62
Simultaneous Translation Turkish-German-English will be provided
Sunday, 28th April 2019
19:30 hrs Welcome Reception
Welcome Speech
Ercan ÇİTLİOĞLU Başkent University, Center for Strategic Research
Thomas BIRRINGER Head of Team Africa and Middle East, Department European and International Cooperation, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung
Venue: Monet Restaurant, Lobby Floor, Conrad Bosphorus Hotel (Dress Code: smart casual)
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Venue: “Junior Ballroom” Lobby Floor (L)
“Junior Ballroom” Lobby Floor (L)
Dr. Peter E Deputy Department Head Department European and International Cooperation Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Berlin
Prof. Dr. Ali E President, Başkent University
H.E. Martin E Ambassador Embassy of the Federal Republic of Germany in Ankara
“Turkey’s Security Outlook”
Assoc. Prof. Dr. İbrahim Ambassador, Presidential Spokesperson Presidency of the Republic of Turkey
„Germany, the EU and NATO in a world in tu moil“
Dr. Jürgen Member of CDU Party, German Parliament Foreign Policy Spokesman of the CDU/CSU Parliamentary Group in the German Bundestag
1: “EU’s Demographic Challenge, Refugees and M veloping Preventive Policies and Strategies”
: Ali TV Presenter - Journalist
Dr. Gergely G Y Minister of the Hungarian Prime Minister's Office
Akif Çağatay KILIÇ Head of Turkish Delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe
5 ern n M RSC LL e er er n r en
g M ITL D re en e De en e n e r r D n n
11: hrs and Discussion Session en e en e
1 : hrs Lunch
en e ne e r n r nr r e
1 : hrs Panel 2: “The Future of the Trans tlantic Security and its Effect on Global Security Affairs”
Moderator SL re en er J rn
Introduction:
Dr. r n J e JU r er n er De en e er n
Ümit P MİR e . r r er er nen e re en e r De eg n
r e er ESTM COTT r e Atlantic Council’s Future Europe Initiative
D n . J KO SKI er e e . e . er nen De eg. e e n
ner ME ER UM FELDE r g er ener re re . . en r e n e r e r e n er
1 : hrs and Discussion Session en e en e
1 : hrs Coffee Break
1 : hrs Panel 3: “Syria’s Future: a Testing Ground for Proxy Wars and eopolitical genda of eighbours and Others or a Stable, Secular and Unified ation?”
Moderator J D n rre n en
6 ntroduction:
aei AT A E enior A viser in c ar e o International A airs I I Institute or olitical an International tu ies
C ristian S T em er o erman arliament Former Fe eral inister
ro r Carlo ASA A C air or International olitics ro ect irector etis Institute or trate ic Foresi t niversit o t e erman un es e r
Emeritus ro r İlter T A il i niv olitical cience ro in International elations Former resi ent o I A International olitical cience Assoc
:2 hrs A and iscussion Session open to t e au ience
: hrs offee rea
: hrs Panel 4: “The Ne Geo olitics and yna ics at the East Mediterranean Region: Risks and Opportunities”
oderator: r Carsten W E A enior E pert or Intra rian al s ice o t e pecial Envo or ria an ello at C eneva Centre or ecurit tu ies ntroduction:
r on laus A A et eneral Former C ie o e ence erman an Former C airman A ilitar Committee
E assimo GA A Am assa or Em ass o Ital in An ara
r Alon E et Am assa or Former ermanent ecretar eneral o t e inistr o Forei n Former Am assa or o Israel to ur e
Namık TA et Am assa or Former Am assa or o ur e to A an Israel
7 :4 hrs and is ussion ession open to t e au ience
: : hrs Tour d’horizon: “The Future of Turkey’s Re ations”
Moderator Ali N resenter ournalist pea ers
r An reas N em er o C art erman arliament ea o erman ele ation to t e arliamentar Assem l o t e Council o Europe
Faru M Am assa or eput inister o Forei n A airs irector or E A airs
: : hrs ree Ti e
: hrs inner
: hrs e note pee h on
“The erspe ti es o er an Turkish Re ations”
Moderator Ali N resenter – ournalist
C ristian Former Fe eral resi ent o erman
enue unior allroom o Floor Conra osp orus tel
and is ussion ession open to t e au ience
: hrs En
8 Tuesd y th ri
enue: “Junior Ballroom” Lobby Floor (L)
: hrs ne 5: “The Future of Warfare, New Technolo ies nd T ti s in the onte t y rid nd ro y rs – re est ern e o r ti t tes e to effe ti e y onfront y rid or ro y u ersion nd the ise of tremism”
oder tor T ntrodu tion:
: hrs nd is ussion ession
: hrs offee re k
: hrs ne 6: “Rise of Technology and the Fall of Usual Threats y er rf re nd y er Security”
oder tor: ntrodu tion:
DÜNN
9 U ,
N Department of International Relations, Altınbaş Un
: 5 hrs and Discussion Session
: 5 losing remar s by
ÇİTLİOĞLU Başkent University, Center for Strategic Research
L S
: hrs
The conference will be held under Chatham House Rule. The participants declare their agreement by registering, that Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. may use the photos and film material created before, during or after the event, both online and in print format, for press and public relations purposes for an indefinite period of time. U ,
N Department of International Relations, Altınbaş Un
: 5 hrs and Discussion Session
: 5 losing remar s by
ÇİTLİOĞLU Başkent University, Center for Strategic Research
L S
: hrs
The conference will be held under Chatham House Rule. The participants declare their agreement by registering, that Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung e.V. may use the photos and film material created before, during or after the event, both online and in print format, for press and public relations purposes for an indefinite period of time.
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Walter Glos, Director of Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Turkey
Dr. Peter Fischer-Bollin, Deputy Head of the Department for European and International Cooperation, KAS Berlin
11 Prof. Dr. Ali Haberal, President of Başkent University Ankara
H.E. Martin Erdmann, Ambassador of the Federal Republic of Germany to Turkey
12 Assoc. Prof. Ibrahim Kalın, Presidential Spokesperson and Chief Adviser
Dr. Jürgen Hardt, Spokesman for Foreign Policy of the CDU/CSU Parliamentary Group
13 Panel “Refugees and Migration”: Gergely Gulyas, Matern von Marschall, Ali Aslan, Lady Olga Maitland, Akif Çağatay Kılıç (left to right)
Panel “Trans-Atlantic Security”: Ümit Pamir, Dr. Franz Josef Jung, Ali Aslan, Sir Peter Westmacott, Rainer Meyer zum Felde, Dominik Jankowski (left to right)
14 Panel “East Mediterranean Region“: Dr. Klaus Naumann, Alon Liel, Dr. Carsten Wieland, Massimo Gaiani, Namık Tan (left to right)
Tour d’horizon – The Future of Turkey’s EU Relations”: Dr. Andreas Nick, Ali Aslan, Faruk Kaymakcı (left to right)
15 Christian Wulff, Former President of the Federal Republic of Germany
Panel “Future of Warfare“: Angela Christine Gendron, Prof. Dr. Martin Rudner, Alper Mehmet, Nodar Kharshiladze, Michael Doran (left to right)
16 Panel “Cyber Security”: Hans-Wilhelm Dünn, Stephan Mayer, Julia Hahn, Prof. Dr. Satoshi Ikeuchi, Prof. Dr. Ahmet K. Han (left to right)
Stephan Mayer, Parliamentary State Secretary at the Federal Ministry of the Interior, Building and Community
17 SUMMARY OF THE ISC 2019
The 12th Istanbul Security Conference® 2019 dealt with regional and global challenges and opportunities. Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Turkey and the Center of Strategic Research of the Başkent University Ankara invited speakers from politics, diplomacy, military, science and industry to controversly discuss the actual challenges. Speakers, discussants and commentators from 25 different countries participated at the ISC 2019.
In his welcoming remarks, Dr. Peter FISCHER-BOLLIN, Deputy Department Head of European and International Cooperation at Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Berlin, traced the historical development of the conference format since its 2008 inception with a view to the changing international security environment. Following his remarks, Prof. Dr. Ali HABERAL, President of Başkent University, praised the conference as a dialogue based on mutual values and interests in difficult times. H.E. Martin ERDMANN, Ambassador of the Federal Republic of Germany in Ankara, stressed the need for dialogue on common interests in the face of diverse sources of instability in the Euro-Atlantic region. He particularly encouraged the Turkish administration to review its decision to obtain the S-400 air defense system.
From the Turkish side, keynote speaker Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ibrahim KALIN, Ambassador and Presidential Spokesperson of the Presidency of the Republic of Turkey, painted a picture of Turkey’s current security outlook. He called for more understanding and support from Turkey’s western allies and friends concerning Turkey’s security concerns, convinced that in today’s world states can only be secure in collaboration with others. Moreover, he contextualized Turkey’s decision to purchase the Russian air defense system historically. When asked about the Syrian peace process and the role of Kurdish forces, Amb. KALIN ruled out any collaboration with Kurdish forces equating them, including the Syrian Democratic Forces, with PKK and condemning fighting terrorism with terrorism. He presented the northeastern part of Syria where Turkish forces are currently present as an example for creating stability in the country.
German keynote speaker Dr. Jürgen HARDT, Member of CDU Party and German Parliament Foreign Policy Spokesman of the CDU/CSU Parliamentary Group in the German Bundestag, replied to the former speakers by explaining Germany’s quest for taking up more international responsibility, referring to the increased spending on defense and development cooperation. On the EU side, the security concerns stemming from Russia, Brexit and the United States led to the establishment of PESCO to strengthen EU capabilities within NATO. With reference to Turkey, Dr. HARDT identified three areas for strengthened dialogue: The Syria peace process, tackling instability in the Maghreb region, and economic cooperation - if not in the form of a Turkish EU accession then in an update of the customs union. The following discussion addressed primarily the role of S-400 integration within NATO structures.
18 Following the keynotes, the first panel addressed the topic “EU’s Demographic Challenge, Refugees and Migration: Impact on Social Stability and Border Security, Developing Preventive Policies and Strategies”. Gergely GULYAS, Minister of the Hungarian Prime Minister’s Office, expressed the view that while the EU needs a common asylum and refugee policy, a common EU immigration policy is neither mentioned in EU treaties nor feasible considering the differences between member states. Akif Çağatay KILIÇ, Head of Turkish Delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, raised attention to the fact that proactive instead of preventive policies are needed and drew attention to migration sources other than Syria. Matern VON MARSCHALL, Member of German Parliament, called for a combined approach of prevention and security measures, illustrating the example of the African continent in fighting the causes for emigration directly in the countries of origin to end illegal migration. Lady Olga MAITLAND, President of The Defence and Security Forum (DSF) London, stated that refugees and migrants in Europe will remain in their new countries of residence, raising the question of their social and economic integration.
The second panel addressed the topic of “The Future of the Trans-Atlantic Security and its Effect on Global Security Affairs”. Franz Josef JUNG, Former Minister of Defence of Germany, sketched an overview of current missions and future challenges of. He called for an increase in German defense spending, but also for a sober analysis of Germany’s diverse existing capabilities. Ümit PAMIR, Ret. Ambassador and Former Permanent Representative of the Turkish Delegation to NATO, expressed that the transatlantic relations are now under strain, referring to rough patches in the history of the partnership. Sir Peter WESTMACOTT, Ambassadorial Fellow Atlantic Council’s Future Europe Initiative, portrayed fault lines in the recent transatlantic relationship in which institutions and alliances are being sidelined. He then called for Europe to take up a greater role in security policy. Dominik P. JANKOWSKI, Political Adviser and Head of the Political Section at the Permanent Delegation of the Republic of Poland to NATO, analyzed that the current adaptation is the biggest transformation of NATO since 1990. Since 2014, NATO has developed a number of tools and mechanisms to adapt to evolving threats. Rainer MEYER ZUM FELDE, Brigadier General (retired) and Senior Fellow at the Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University, analyzed two major challenges the transatlantic community needs to address: the imbalance of transatlantic burden sharing and the fact that Germany’s Munich consensus of a growing defense responsibility is severed.
The third panel addressed the question “Syria’s Future: a Testing Ground for Proxy Wars and Geopolitical Agenda of Neighbours and Others or a Stable, Secular and Unified Nation?”. Christian SCHMIDT, Member of the German Parliament and Former Federal Minister, raised attention to different ways of managing the reconstruction of Syria, a process in which Turkey holds a crucial role. He also raised the question of Germany’s role. Prof. Dr. Carlo MASALA, Chair for International Politics and Project Director of the Metis Institute for Strategic Foresight at the University of the German Bundeswehr, affirmed that Syria shows that conflicts do have military solutions and that Syria may provide a blueprint for future conflict. Prof. Dr. İlter TURAN, Professor for International Relations at Bilgi University and Former President of the International Political Science Association, sketched the
19 history of Syria characterized by authoritarian governments and domestic sectarian divisions. While most involved states agree that the top priority lies in giving Syria an independent government instead of establishing a client state, they diverge in their ideas for implementation.
The fourth conference panel explored “The New Geopolitics and Dynamics at the East Mediterranean Region: Risks and Opportunities”. Klaus NAUMANN, Retired General and Former Chief of Defence of Germany and Former Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, opened the panel by warning of the risks arising from failing states, conflict over natural resources, and possible Iranian and US miscalculations. Especially conflict in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq could trigger further conflict and migration waves. .E. Massimo GAIANI, Ambassador of Italy in Ankara, warned of a deep crisis in Libya and mentioned Italy’s engagement in Libya striving for a political agreement to bring peace, territorial integrity and prosperity. Alon LIEL, retired Ambassador and Former Permanent Secretary General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Former Ambassador of Israel to Turkey, explained how Israel has become an internationally legitimized player while having all but abandoned the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, asking how the international community will react to an official end of the peace process. Namık TAN, retired Ambassador and Former Ambassador of Turkey to the US and Israel, explained that the Cyprus question has become hard to solve since the Republic of Cyprus became a member of the EU.
To conclude the panels, the day’s Tour D’horizon focused on “The Future of Turkey- EU Relations”. Dr. Andreas NICK, Member of CDU Party in the German Parliament and Head of the German Delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, analyzed that Turkey’s EU accession process has been backtracked in the last years due to factors within Turkey. Instead of shutting the door, however, Dr. NICK called for a joint, realistic vision of a future relationship. Faruk KAYMAKCI, Ambassador and Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and Director for EU Affairs, provided a historical overview of EU-Turkey relations. He asked for accelerating the EU process and showing Turkey a clear prospect. He analyzed Turkey’s motivation for joining the EU as the fact that the body determines the fate of the European continent, and Turkey wants to be a part of it in order to shape global politics as a part of Europe.
To conclude an insightful day, Christian WULFF, Former Federal President of Germany, held a keynote speech on “The Perspectives of German-Turkish Relations”. He began by tracing the history between the two states and two peoples, referring to various common projects of close collaboration and cultural exchange. Former President Wulff appealed to the German side to grant the Turkish counterparts more understanding and respect.
The second conference day was opened by a panel on “The Future of Warfare, New Technologies and Tactics in the Context Hybrid and Proxy Wars – Are Western Democratic States able to effectively confront Hybrid or Proxy Subversion and the Rise of Extremism”. Angela Christine GENDRON, Senior Research Fellow at the Centre for Security, Intelligence and Defence Studies at the Norman Paterson
20 School of International Affairs at Carleton University, traced the beginning of the term of hybrid warfare to the Cold War as the combination of classical and non- classical acts of warfare to undermine citizen confidence in state authority and information sources, erode trust and popularize the adversary’s policy agendas. Michael DORAN, Senior Fellow Hudsons Institute Washington, focused on the case of Iran. He characterized America’s abandoning of the JCPOA as an American problem beyond the Trump administration and advocated for a critical assessment of Iran’s strategies. Nodar KHARSHILADZE, Former Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs of Georgia and Founder of the Georgia Strategic Analysis Center, concluded that current bureaucracies are not made to counter or even understand hybrid threats because of a twofold change in the threat environment: of the battlefield, requiring an update of weapons and strategies alike, and of society, which is being transformed by information and communication technologies. Emeritus Prof. Dr. Martin RUDNER, Distinguished Research Professor at Emeritus Carleton University, explained the use of proxies by friends and adversaries at the example of Canada’s oil industry.
The last conference panel addressed the “Rise of Technology and the Fall of Usual Threats. Cyber Warfare and Cyber Security”. Stephan MAYER, Parliamentary State Secretary at the German Ministry of Interior, Building and Community and Member of CSU in the German Parliament, evaluated the reaction to the spring of 2019 attack on German research institutions positively. He stressed the importance of cooperation between national, regional and international entities and of information sharing about threats and attacks. Hans-Wilhelm DÜNN, President of the Cyber-Sicherheitsrat Deutschland e.V., alerted to a translation problem of cybersecurity issues, resulting in the cybersecurity challenge being recognized, but few actions taken. He called for standards, alert thresholds, and most importantly human networks to tackle these new threats. Prof. Dr. Ahmet K. HAN, Department of International Relations, Altınbaş University Istanbul, focused on the nature of the threat and alerted to the roles of Russia and China. He pointed out that cyber attacks, particularly to defense industry, critical infrastructure, government networks and private sector is vulnerable. One response to cyber attacks is the establishment of a Turkish agency partnering with the private sector focused on cybersecurity. Prof. Satoshi IKEUCHI of the Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology at The University of Tokyo compared NATO and US-Japan alliance treaty. The ensuing discussion centered on the question of dealing with security concerns in 5G infrastructure and the extent to which conventional threats remain.
In their closing remarks, Walter GLOS, Director of Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Turkey and Ercan ÇİTLİOĞLU, Başkent University, Center for Strategic Research thanked the organizers and participants to be part of this dialogue format which is decisive in finding new solution. The Istanbul Security Conference® 2019 made an important contribution in connecting decision makers from politics, diplomacy, science, military and industry.
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