July 29, 2016 Diversified Telecommunication Services

Company Rating Under Review

Suprisingly stronger sales and profitability in 1H16 Reuters: HT.ZA Bloomberg: HTRA CZ ZSE: HT-R-A

Hrvatski Telekom (HT) delivered 2.6% yoy higher top line at HRK1,729m in Last price (HRK) 143 2Q16, mainly due to 8.1% yoy higher Mobile Network sales and 14.2% yoy Price target (HRK) n/a higher revenues from ICT business. In 1H16 total revenues grew 3.0% yoy Previous target (HRK) 187 to HRK3.4bn. A brief look at the categories reveals that the largest 12-month range (HRK) 138-157 positive contribution came from Mobile network sales that rose 6.6% yoy to HRK1,350m driven mostly by stronger mobile phone sales and postpaid 12-month volatility 14% services. Also, ICT and miscellaneous contributed positively with 27.9% and 80.2% yoy higher revenues, respectively. Miscellaneous revenues Upside/downside n/a growth stays driven by larger customer base (+24.2% yoy) in energy Expected dividend yield 4,2% business. On the other hand, Fixed Network revenue fell 4.5% yoy to Expected total return n/a HRK1,675m, mostly driven by decrease in voice and broadband services amid ongoing mobile fixed to mobile substitution trend. Finally, Optima Market capitalization (HRKbn) 12 Telekom, where HT owns a 19.0% stake, saw 1.7% yoy higher revenues Free float 39% in 1H16 at HRK221m.

Profitability wise, EBITDA grew 3.2% yoy to HRK719m in 2Q16, while EBITDA margin grew 3.7pp yoy to 17.7%. Also, EBIT grew 12.6% yoy to HRK367m with EBIT margin being 0.4pp yoy higher. Quite similar trends Stock price performance 350 2400 are observed in 1H16data, with EBITDA rising 1.4% yoy to HRK1,399m HT -R-A (HRK, lhs) 2300 while EBITDA margin stagnated at 37.5%. EBIT went up 18.0% yoy with 300 CROBEX (rhs) 2200 Source: ZSE, Addiko Research 2100 EBITDA margin going up 2.1pp yoy to 17.6%. All mentioned, along with 250 lower depreciation and amortization costs, led to 2.7% yoy higher net 2000 1900 200 profit at HRK417m. 1800

150 1700 Looking ahead, despite surprisingly good 1H16results, HT did not change 1600 100 1500 its outlook for 2016, with the forecast 0-2% fall in revenue, which implies Feb -11 Nov -11 Aug -12 May -13 Jan -14 Oct -14 Jul -15 Apr -16 significant downside risks in sales in 2H16, probably from significantly lower roaming revenue during tourist season due to the European Quarterly profits (HRKm) Parliament law. Our primary concern is that non-core businesses (or 1.000 EBITDA EBIT unsustainable in long run like telephone sales) recorded revenue growth, 900 Source: Company data, Addiko Research 800 while core-businesses are falling, and we see a continuation of this trend 700 in the years to come in the absence of any strong push up factors. At the 600 500 same time, there is upside risk as HT has recently shown interest in 400 acquisition of Metronet and H1, where it needs approval from the 300 competition watchdog because of it’s size. All in, due to changes of 200 100 analyst and development of new valuation model, we keep target price 0 and recommendation UNDER REVIEW. 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15

Hrvoje Stojić Analyst (+385) 1 603 0509 [email protected]

SEE THE DISCLOSURES APPENDIX FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATION July 29, 2016 Diversified Telecommunication Services Hrvatski Telekom

Quarterly Income Statement

HRKm 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 Sales 1.843 2.012 1.796 1.695 1.740 1.786 1.837 1.607 1.680 1.854 1.766 1.619 1.686 1.885 1.729 1.673 1.729 Other revenues 66 49 104 35 63 18 5 41 28 16 39 22 16 24 35 42 28 Operating revenues 1.909 2.060 1.900 1.730 1.803 1.803 1.842 1.648 1.708 1.870 1.806 1.641 1.702 1.910 1.764 1.715 1.757 Operating expenses -1.063 -1.069 -1.180 -1.122 -1.050 -1.018 -1.043 -1.073 -1.093 -1.126 -1.131 -1.092 -1.025 -1.143 -1.088 -1.147 -1.048 EBITDA 878 1.021 771 624 780 797 859 601 635 765 744 570 696 784 708 582 719 Depreciation -318 -282 -343 -317 -320 -322 -356 -325 -335 -352 -371 -358 -351 -365 -395 -349 -342 EBIT 528 709 376 292 433 463 443 250 280 391 303 191 326 401 281 234 376 Net financial result 13 14 -6 8 -18 26 -19 -4 -25 3 -13 -2 -11 3 -20 -53 -17 Associates & extraordinaries 00000000000000000 Pre-tax profit 541 724 370 300 416 489 424 246 255 394 291 189 315 404 260 181 360 Tax -98 -144 -62 -62 -84 -96 54 -48 -52 -79 131 -38 -60 -80 -50 -34 -71 Net profit 443 580 308 238 332 394 478 199 203 315 421 151 255 324 211 147 289

Growth (%, yoy) 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 Sales n/a n/a -9,1 n/a -5,6 -11,2 2,3 -5,2 -3,5 3,8 -3,8 0,7 0,3 1,7 -2,1 3,4 2,6 Other revenues n/a n/a -10,6 n/a -3,9 -64,1 -95,0 15,2 -55,7 -9,4 658,4 -45,9 -42,1 52,5 -10,4 89,0 70,1 Operating revenues n/a n/a -9,2 n/a -5,5 -12,5 -3,0 -4,7 -5,3 3,7 -2,0 -0,5 -0,3 2,1 -2,3 4,5 3,2 Operating expenses n/a n/a -10,6 n/a -1,2 -4,8 -11,6 -4,3 4,1 10,6 8,5 1,7 -6,2 1,5 -3,8 5,0 2,2 EBITDA n/a n/a -6,7 n/a -11,1 -22,0 11,5 -3,7 -18,6 -4,0 -13,4 -5,1 9,6 2,4 -4,8 2,2 3,2 Depreciation n/a n/a -4,7 n/a 0,7 14,3 3,7 2,6 4,7 9,4 4,1 10,2 4,8 3,7 6,6 -2,6 -2,6 EBIT n/a n/a -8,5 n/a -17,9 -34,7 17,8 -14,2 -35,4 -15,6 -31,5 -23,7 16,4 2,5 -7,5 22,2 15,5 Net income n/a n/a -6,3 n/a -25,1 -32,1 55,3 -16,5 -38,9 -20,0 -11,8 -24,0 25,8 2,9 -50,0 -2,7 13,0

Profitability (%, ttm) 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 EBITDA margin 43,3 42,6 43,0 41,6 41,0 39,6 41,0 41,0 39,6 38,7 42,1 36,8 37,7 37,8 40,6 34,5 41,4 EBIT margin 26,7 26,4 26,6 25,1 24,2 21,6 22,7 22,4 20,5 19,3 17,4 16,6 17,3 17,3 17,1 17,3 17,7 Net profit 22,1 21,7 22,0 20,6 19,5 17,6 20,1 19,8 18,2 16,9 16,2 15,5 16,3 16,3 13,4 13,0 13,2 ROA 14,3 13,8 13,5 12,4 11,3 9,8 11,1 10,8 10,0 9,5 8,8 8,3 8,7 8,6 6,9 6,7 6,9 ROE 17,0 16,3 16,0 14,8 13,9 12,1 13,7 13,3 12,3 11,3 10,6 10,0 10,4 10,3 8,3 8,1 8,2

Leverage (ttm) 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 Assets/Equity 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,4 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2 Net debt/Equity -0,2 -0,2 -0,3 -0,3 -0,4 -0,2 -0,2 -0,3 -0,2 -0,3 -0,2 -0,2 -0,2 -0,2 -0,2 -0,3 -0,2 Net debt/EBITDA -0,6 -0,6 -0,9 -1,2 -1,3 -0,7 -0,7 -1,1 -0,9 -1,0 -0,7 -1,1 -0,9 -0,9 -1,1 -1,2 -1,0

Valuation 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 P/S 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,4 2,3 2,0 2,0 2,0 1,8 1,8 1,9 1,9 1,8 1,7 1,7 1,7 1,7 P/EBITDA 4,8 4,9 5,1 5,6 5,5 5,0 4,8 4,8 4,6 4,6 4,9 5,2 4,6 4,6 4,5 4,4 4,4 P/EBIT 7,7 8,0 8,2 9,2 9,3 9,2 8,6 8,7 8,9 9,2 10,5 11,5 10,0 10,0 10,0 9,7 9,4 P/E 9,4 9,7 9,9 11,2 11,5 11,3 9,8 9,9 10,0 10,5 11,3 12,3 10,7 10,6 12,7 12,9 12,5 P/B 1,7 1,6 1,5 1,6 1,7 1,4 1,3 1,3 1,2 1,2 1,1 1,2 1,1 1,1 1,0 1,0 1,0 EV/Sales 1,9 1,9 1,8 1,9 1,8 1,8 1,7 1,5 1,5 1,4 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,3 EV/EBITDA 4,2 4,3 4,1 4,4 4,1 4,3 4,1 3,7 3,7 3,6 4,2 4,1 3,7 3,7 3,4 3,2 3,4 EV/EBIT 6,7 6,9 6,7 7,2 7,0 7,9 7,4 6,8 7,1 7,2 9,0 9,1 8,1 8,1 7,6 6,9 7,3

Source: financial reports, Addiko research

Page 2 July 29, 2016 Diversified Telecommunication Services Hrvatski Telekom

FY Financial Statements

Income Statement (HRKm) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sales 8.067 7.456 7.058 6.908 6.919 Other revenues 301 259 121 124 98 Operating revenues 8.369 7.715 7.179 7.032 7.017 Operating expenses -4.798 -4.397 -4.233 -4.423 -4.348 EBITDA 3.687 3.465 3.059 2.793 2.783 Depreciation -1.365 -1.268 -1.315 -1.383 -1.470 EBIT 2.205 2.050 1.632 1.225 1.199 Net financial result 50 42 -3 -40 -31 Associates & extraordinaries 0 0 0 0 0 Pre-tax profit 2.255 2.092 1.629 1.185 1.168 Tax -444 -396 -188 -47 -227 Net profit 1.811 1.696 1.442 1.138 941

Balance Sheet (HRKm) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Cash 3.704 3.146 2.039 2.192 3.175 Inventories 175 155 115 113 104 Accounts receivable 1.231 1.143 1.212 1.198 1.178 Intangible assets 999 1.142 1.358 1.722 1.651 Property, plant and equipment 5.722 5.224 5.131 5.207 5.087 Other assets 1.306 2.302 2.965 3.409 2.885 Total assets 13.136 13.113 12.820 13.840 14.079 Accounts payable 1.170 1.384 1.354 1.344 1.324 Short-term debt 19 6 6 7 4 Long-term debt 7 4 4 312 290 Equity 11.019 10.899 10.700 11.276 11.641 Net debt -3.678 -3.136 -2.030 -1.872 -2.880

Cash Flow Statement (HRKm) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Operating cash flow 2.835 2.985 2.350 2.265 2.372 Net capital expenditures -873 -1.116 -1.355 -927 -965 Net increase in debt -11 -6 -2 -16 -43 Dividends paid -1.863 -1.813 -1.679 -736 -573 Other investing/financing cash flow 177 -608 -421 -463 192 Net cash flow 264 -558 -1.107 124 983 Change in working capital n/a -2-1.058 -121 1.278

Growth (%) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sales n/a -7,6 -5,3 -2,1 0,2 EBITDA n/a -6,0 -11,7 -8,7 -0,4 EBIT n/a -7,0 -20,4 -24,9 -2,2

Profitability (%) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 EBITDA margin 44,1 44,9 42,6 39,7 39,7 EBIT margin 26,4 26,6 22,7 17,4 17,1 Net profit 21,6 22,0 20,1 16,2 13,4 ROA 13,8 12,9 11,1 8,5 6,7 ROE 16,4 15,5 13,3 10,4 8,2

Leverage 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Assets/Equity 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2 Net debt/Equity -0,3 -0,3 -0,2 -0,2 -0,2 Net debt/EBITDA -1,0 -0,9 -0,7 -0,7 -1,0

Source: financial reports, Addiko research

Page 3 July 29, 2016

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450

Date Rating Target price

400 6.11.2007. Hold HRK 412 29.2.2008. Buy HRK 411 19.9.2008. Buy HRK 354 350 4.3.2009. Buy HRK 279 30.7.2009. Buy HRK 279 12.10.2009. Hold HRK 265 300 17.2.2010. Hold HRK 280 30.7.2010. Hold HRK 280 23.12.2010. Hold HRK 292 250 29.7.2011. Add HRK 292 14.02.2012. Buy HRK 292 20.6.2012. Buy HRK 274 200 14.2.2013. U/R N/A 26.7.2013. U/R N/A 4.12.2013. Hold HRK 187 150 14.2.2014. Hold HRK 187 Source: Bloomberg, Addiko Research 30.7.2014. Buy HRK 187 30.10.2014. U/R N/A 100 12.2.2015. U/R N/A 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 30.7.2015. U/R N/A 29.10.2015 U/R N/A 24.2.2016 U/R N/A Addiko Bank d.d. 28.04.2016 U/R N/A Slavonska avenija 6, 10000 28.07.2016 U/R N/A [email protected] phone: +385-1-603-3522